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8:30 PM tonight, key variable: $BTC Don't rush to judge bullish or bearish.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
On September 4th, 8:30 PM Beijing time, August nonfarm payrolls will be released. The market's habitual reaction: poor data bets on rate cuts as positive, good data bets on tightening as negative. But this time, the script isn't that simple.
Compared to "new additions," the market fears "revisions to previous data" more.
July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by over 100,000 combined — the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' "post-facto corrections" have become routine. If tomorrow night’s new additions turn positive, but the previous two months are sharply revised down, the quality of this "improvement" is questionable. Focusing only on the headline number might mean the market doesn't even understand what it's trading.
For BTC, expectations of rate cuts do not equal direct benefits.
Cooling employment eases rate hike pressure, provided the market believes the economy can "soft land." If the data reveals signs of recession, risk assets will be sold off first, and BTC will hardly be an exception. When the "recession trade" hit in 2022, this correlation was always present.
The core focus: whether the quality of new employment can withstand revisions, and whether wage growth slows down simultaneously.
A reminder: this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the rate decision, but not the final verdict — the CPI on September 11th is the decisive factor. Even if the direction is guessed right tomorrow night, it’s only a preliminary round.
It’s too early to set the tone for the rate hike path based on a single number. If holding positions over the weekend, fasten your seatbelt and leave enough room for error. It’s not hard to guess the direction, but surviving the interim volatility is the challenge.#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Short term: The non-farm payroll data will determine whether the probability of a rate hike in September rises or falls, directly affecting whether institutions increase or decrease their ETF positions after the data release. The market has already reduced positions ahead of the non-farm data (ending 12 consecutive days of inflows).
Medium term: The CPI on September 11 is the real "decisive factor." The ETF fund flow changes caused by the non-farm data are more likely to be impulsive, while the CPI will determine the final rate decision of the FOMC on September 15-16.
Structural: Even if short-term fund flows fluctuate, the sustained net inflow trend of the Ethereum ETF from the end of August to early September reflects that institutional demand for ETH allocation is still accumulating. This structural demand will not fundamentally reverse due to a single month's non-farm data. $ETH Crude oil hasn't been blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but it's stuck in the global supply chain.
These past couple of days, crude oil has really pushed emotions to the limit.
The Strait of Hormuz hasn't been completely blocked as many imagined; the real trouble lies in the rerouted supply chain. Saudi exports have dropped to multi-year lows, Red Sea transport is disrupted, and Russian energy facilities are under pressure.
As a result, oil prices have been pushed up continuously, with Brent crude reaching a six-week high again.
But the more I see this, the less I want to chase the long side.
I'm even preparing to try a small short position on crude oil.
Not because I think the supply issues are fake—on the contrary, the problems are real.
But the biggest risk in trading is mixing "facts" with "how much higher prices can still go."
Right now, oil price trading isn't just about crude itself; it's a combination of transport risks, supply concerns, inflation expectations, and emotional premiums all stacked together.
So what I want to try isn't guessing the oil price peak.
I just feel that when all the bad news has already been used to fuel the bulls, can every new piece of news still push the price up by the same magnitude?
If it can keep surging, I'll admit it.
If the risk premium starts to fade, then this small short position of mine becomes interesting.
Small position, no directional bet, just a trading logic:
Crude oil isn't blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, but could the price already be stuck in sentiment?
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $CL $BZ The market sentiment clearly returned today, with ETH rising nearly 5% in one day.
While others are chasing the rally, babala opened a short position at 2500.
I'm not bearish on ETH in the long term, nor do I think this rebound is over.
This trade is based on a short-term logic: ETH quickly surged from around 2370 to a high of 2515, a significant increase in a short time, and 2500–2520 happens to be a round number resistance zone.
When the price rises too fast, more funds chase the long side.
But the more everyone gets excited, the less willing I am to take the last leg at the resistance.
ETH's rise today is partly due to BTC strengthening again, boosting sentiment across the crypto market; and partly because ETH spot ETFs have been continuously attracting inflows recently, reducing circulating supply on exchanges.
These are the bulls' current advantages and also the biggest risk to my short position.
So I won't force myself to believe ETH must fall just because I opened a short.
What I really watch is whether the price can continue to hold above 2520 with volume after breaking 2500.
If it can't hold, the funds chasing the rally earlier may start to take profits, and ETH might first retest 2450, or weaker, 2400–2380.
My plan is:
✔ Open short at 2500
✔ Take partial profit near 2450
✔ If it breaks below 2450, hold remaining position for 2400–2380
✔ If it reclaims 2520, I will actively reduce my position
✔ If it effectively breaks 2535, this short trade will be stopped out
Based on opening at 2500 and stop loss at 2535, my risk is about 1.4%.
The first target at 2450 offers a $50 range, the second target at 2400 offers $100. This risk-reward ratio is acceptable, so I'm willing to try this short.
The worst thing about shorting against the trend is not being wrong in judgment, but continuing to find excuses even when the price clearly tells you otherwise.
I can be bearish at 2500, but if the market holds above 2535, I will admit my mistake straightforwardly.
Trading is not about proving you're always right, but about taking more when you're right and losing less when you're wrong.1. Tonight at 20:30, U.S. August Nonfarm Payroll Papers The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report at 20:30 Beijing time. Forecasts vary across surveys: new nonfarm payrolls are expected to be between 55,000 and 65,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to be between 4.1% and 4.2%; In July, nonfarm payrolls will decrease by 23,000. This base is already weak, and if employment continues to cool in August, the market may further lower its rate hike expectations for September. Conversely, if employment and wage growth are both hot, risk appetite that just recovered early in the morning may quickly be given back somewhat. 2. Waller speaks, market first pushes rate hike expectations back Fed Governor Waller said if inflation continues to cool in August, he prefers to keep rates unchanged in September; If inflation heats up again, he will consider supporting rate hikes. After the speech, US stocks rose, US Treasury yields retreated, and BTC accelerated accordingly. In their technical analysis on September 3, Reuters listed the $82,793 area as a major resistance above BTC and $75,674 as a lower watch level. BTC is now close to the resistance above, so chasing the rally at this level is not as comfortable as the big bullish candlestick suggests. 3. ETF funds return to BTC, but ETH is outflowing The latest fully disclosed data from September 2: US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $101.1 million, with BlackRock IBIT seeing $115.4 million in inflows and Grayscale GBTC outflowing $56.2 millionNew developments have emerged in Iran's strike range, with reports claiming missiles and drones have targeted the US military base Ali Al Salem in Kuwait. The local air defense system intercepted attacks for the second consecutive night, and a US-related residential area was hit and caught fire. The US side's preliminary assessment indicates no casualties so far, and the extent of damage to the base has not been fully verified. There are discrepancies between the two sides' statements, and more definitive information is awaited.
What truly deserves attention is the change in the conflict radius. Previously, the focus was on direct US-Iran confrontation and the Strait of Hormuz. Now, retaliatory actions are spreading to US-deployed countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, with risks expanding from a single battlefield to the entire Gulf military network.
However, the market reaction is somewhat restrained, with Brent crude around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8, both declining rather than rising. The reason is the coexistence of geopolitical premiums and short-term cooling expectations: no confirmation of new large-scale clashes within hours, and Trump also stated that the new round of actions will not be prolonged.
Currently, there are two scenarios: if attacks affect energy facilities such as refineries and ports, the probability of oil prices breaking through $100 increases, and inflationary pressure will transmit to Federal Reserve policy and BTC; if the conflict is limited to military targets and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, market sentiment may stabilize. Regarding data, this Friday's nonfarm payrolls are a key reference before the FOMC, and volatility may intensify.
Risk warning: The geopolitical situation changes rapidly, and information verification may lag. Please assess risks cautiously. $BTCMany people focus on the historical average 3% drop in September to short, but actually the past three Septembers all ended up rising. This August also saw one of the strongest performances in recent years, so simply applying seasonality can easily lead to misjudgment. The current core contradiction is: whether ETFs can continue to absorb profit-taking, and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in mid-September. If interest rates remain unchanged and funds continue to flow in, $BTC could completely break the "September curse" once again. Shouting out a crazy chase of 230 billion for Nvidia: Behind Broadcom's confidence, who is undermining Jensen Huang?
The era when Nvidia monopolized computing power and made the entire industry pay expensive taxes is facing Wall Street's fiercest gravedigger.
Broadcom has directly set an astonishing AI chip revenue target of 230 billion USD for the coming years. Daring to openly compete on Jensen Huang's home turf, its fundamental reliance is not on head-to-head competition with general-purpose GPUs, but on the global tech giants' collective mass exodus from Nvidia.
Think about it, Google, Meta, and major cloud providers have long been fed up with contributing 70% of gross profit to Nvidia. They are frantically investing in developing their own custom chips, and Broadcom is the only super arms dealer behind this group of trillion-dollar giants. From custom chip design to Ethernet switching bases, Broadcom is capturing the biggest dividend as AI infrastructure shifts from general monopoly to self-developed internal competition.
This calculation is also a loud wake-up call for the AI concept hype in the crypto circle.
Many retail investors in the secondary market are still blindly speculating on decentralized computing power projects renting GPUs, unaware that traditional top-tier computing power architecture has already entered the era of custom chips and high-speed clusters. If you only look at hype concepts and ignore the reality that computing power industrialization is rapidly lowering marginal costs, you will often be ruthlessly eliminated by the new hardware of the times.
Understanding this power throne handover, how much longer do you think Nvidia's moat can hold, and can Broadcom truly rewrite the AI chip landscape?
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 ETH's drop today is not undeserved, but it's far from a death sentence yet
$ETH returned to around $2400 today, with a more noticeable drop than $BTC, which actually fits its current role. $BTC can be considered digital gold, a safe haven asset under war and debt pressures, but $ETH is more like an on-chain financial asset. When interest rates rise and risk appetite shrinks, its valuation gets hit first. Today, with high oil prices, high US Treasury yields, and rising rate hike expectations, it's no surprise the market stepped on ETH a bit harder.
But I don't think $ETH is doomed just because of today's drop. Its real challenge isn't the fall today, but that it needs to provide more evidence than $BTC to keep funds invested. As long as BTC maintains its scarcity narrative, institutions will keep buying; for ETH to rise, the market will ask if on-chain revenue is recovering, if ETF funds are sustained, if staking yields are attractive compared to US Treasuries, and if the L2 ecosystem is still capturing value. This is ETH's tough spot: many stories, but each requires data.
On the short-term chart, the $2400 level is very critical. If this level holds, today's drop is just a normal pullback after August's rebound; if $2400 breaks, the next support to watch is around $2350 or even $2300. The $2500 to $2550 range above remains a confirmation zone; until ETH climbs back there, it can only be called a recovery, not a market re-domination. It needs a strong bullish candle with volume to dispel the impression of being "weaker than BTC."
A good angle to write about ETH today is that it is being repriced by US Treasury yields. When Treasuries are high, 2% to 3% on-chain yields aren't that attractive; but if employment data weakens later and the market bets on rate cuts, ETH staking yields will immediately regain relative appeal. In other words, ETH doesn't lack cards now, but it needs a favorable interest rate environment to play them well.
The worst scenario on the chart is this: $BTC sideways, $ETH continuing to drift down. That means funds only want the most certain assets and are unwilling to spread risk. If BTC stays flat but ETH can reclaim $2500, the situation is completely different, indicating the market is shifting from "defensive allocation" to "application-driven resilience." This signal is more important than daily price moves.
Compared to $SOL and $DOGE, $ETH's advantage lies in accumulation, not speed. Stablecoins, DeFi, institutional custody, RWA pilots—many funds will ultimately settle in the Ethereum ecosystem first. The problem is the market is currently unwilling to pay a high premium for "long-term accumulation" because short-term focus is on interest rates and the dollar. Its fundamentals are there, but sentiment hasn't fully returned.
If I were doing short-term observation, I wouldn't curse just because it dropped to $2400 today, nor would I rush in on a rebound. My plan would be: watch for support above $2400, look for strength above $2500, and consider the short-term structure broken below $2300. ETH's trickiest zone is the middle ground—neither breaking up nor down, grinding you into doubt.
$ETH now is like a compressed spring, but whether it can bounce depends not on how loudly it shouts bullish, but on whether interest rates, ETFs, and on-chain fees all improve together. Today's drop isn't pretty, but it's not a crash; whoever can reclaim $2500 next will earn the right to say ETH is back at the center of the table.
So I prefer to treat $ETH as a "waiting for confirmation" asset, not a "rush in immediately" one. Its opportunity lies on the right side, not in sentiment. The longer $2400 holds, the harder it is for bears to keep pressing; once $2500 is reclaimed with volume, those who criticized its weakness will come back looking for reasons. ETH's biggest fear is no discussion; discussion is still ongoing, what's missing is a convincing candle.Ansem: Bear market strategies will lose money in bull markets; to maximize profits, you have to learn to "dream" again. Crypto trader Ansem said that short-term and high-frequency strategies that survive in a bear market can actually become sources of losses during a bull market. To capture the biggest profits in a bull market, you need to dare to hold spot positions and fantasize about long-term holding. He suggests that traders who have already made profits can hold part of their positions long-term and keep the rest for short-term trading. At the same time, he publicly traded ZEC again, saying that buying ZEC at $948 is like buying Bitcoin at $948. According to HTX market data, ZEC is currently trading at $948, up over 16% in 24 hours. Ansem's core point points to the most classic problem in crypto market cycle transitions: the strategy that helps you survive in a bear market may actually be the root cause of losses in a bull market. In a bear market, the downward trend is key, and short-term, high-frequency, fast-in, fast-exit defensive styles are key to survival. Any long-term fantasy can turn into deep trapping; But in a bull market, the biggest profit often comes from holding the entire trend, rather than repeatedly buying high and low. Using bear market thinking in a bull market often results in frequent exits, missing the main rally, then chasing back with higher prices, only to wear down profits back and forth. Based on this logic, Ansem's solution is a compromise: accounts already profitable convert part of their positions into long-term holding, keeping exposure to the trend; The remaining funds continue to trade short-term as usual, maintaining their feel and cash flow. This essentially acknowledges that no one else existsHistorically, $ETH has been one of the weaker months for Ethereum in September. After a surge in August, it is often followed by a sharp profit-taking in September. Considering the current market situation, there are likely to be three scenarios ahead:
Scenario 1 (Neutral, High Probability): High-level range-bound oscillation. The market will repeatedly tug between $2250 and $2550, using consolidation to digest previous profits and await clearer macro data in mid-September.
Scenario 2 (Optimistic): Breakout with volume. If macro data exceeds expectations positively (e.g., the Federal Reserve turns dovish) and ETF funds flow back in large amounts, ETH is expected to break through the $2550 resistance with volume, opening an upward space toward $2800 to $3000.
Scenario 3 (Pessimistic): Breakdown and decline. If macro negatives intensify (e.g., confirmed rate hikes) combined with continuous ETF outflows, ETH may break below the $2250 support, returning to a deep correction and challenging the $2000 level in the short term. $BTC $ETH institutional ETF outflows coexist with spot buying
ETF outflows: In early September, the US spot Ethereum ETF ended a 12-day streak of net inflows, recording about $48 million in net outflows. This reflects institutions taking profits and adopting a wait-and-see attitude at current highs, weakening short-term upward momentum.
Spot buying support: Despite ETF outflows, institutions have not fully exited. For example, US-listed company BitMine recently made a large purchase of over 50,000 ETH, with its total holdings approaching 5% of Ethereum's total supply. This continued accumulation at the spot level provides solid mid-to-long-term bottom support for ETH. $BTC ETH Latest Analysis: Price and Funding Interpretation After the Fed Turns Dovish
⚠️ This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Core Macro Signal: The Fed’s “Swing Hawk” Suddenly Turns Dovish
Fed Governor Waller’s statement on September 3 became a key market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if the August inflation data continues to slow, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. This statement directly reduced the market’s probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 48.4%.
2. Waller, previously a hawkish official, was interpreted by the market as signaling that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is likely nearing its end. The US dollar index weakened accordingly, while gold, silver, and the US tech stock sector rose simultaneously.
3. The core impact of this signal on the crypto market is that the funding pressure under a high interest rate environment is expected to marginally ease. ETH, as a highly elastic risk asset, is more sensitive to Fed policy than BTC.Focus on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls, ETH funds have clearly cooled down 👀
$ETH is still fluctuating around $2400 tonight, with no obvious breakout in price for now, but the key driving force behind the previous rise—ETF funds—has already started to slow down significantly.
Data shows that daily inflows into ETH ETFs have dropped sharply from $102 million → $88 million → about $9 million.
This is worth paying close attention to.
After all, one of the important drivers for ETH's rapid rebound from around $2000 to $2500 was the continuous inflow of institutional funds.
Now that funds are slowing, ETH will need to rely more on spot buying to prove its strength.
So tonight, I won’t rush to call $3000.
📍 Whether $2400 can hold is key.
Next, we focus on tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data.
If the data favors risk assets, and $ETH can reclaim $2500, then I believe the next wave of the market can truly begin.
For tonight, just observe; tomorrow, watch the data. 📊$ARB 0.128.
Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking.
Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show.
Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset.
#AVGODipsSNOWPops
#GoldETFAdds10Tons
#TradFiStablecoinAlliance Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin performance, with sharp profit-taking often following the surge in August. Considering the current market situation, there are likely two scenarios ahead:
Scenario One (High Probability): High-level range-bound oscillation. The market will repeatedly tug between $75,000 and $83,000, using consolidation to digest August's profits and await clearer macroeconomic data in mid-September.
Scenario Two: Breakout or breakdown. If macro data exceeds expectations and ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC is expected to break out above $83,000 with volume and challenge $90,000; conversely, if it falls below the $73,000 support line, there is a risk of a deep correction down to around $68,000. $ETH Besides the pressure from market volatility, OKX's recent market volume is not as strong as before. Coupled with some on-chain meme hotspot funds shifting and the market constantly comparing narratives related to OKB and Robinhood, short-term capital loosening is not surprising. But I believe what truly determines OKB's long-term value has never been the recent fluctuations. The core question remains: Is OKX determined to build X Layer? From current actions, I feel the answer is becoming clearer. X Layer has been continuously upgrading its infrastructure this year; in January, it launched Flashblocks, officially claiming mainnet speed increased by about 5 times; After completing the Jovian upgrade in July, the base fees further decreased. Meanwhile, OKB's positioning is becoming increasingly clear—it is becoming the core gas asset of X Layer. Moreover, OKX is not just telling stories. The product development of OKX Wallet over the past few years is a very intuitive case in itself. Now Wallet covers 130+ public chains and continues to expand into DEX, DeFi, AI, and Onchain OS. So I prefer to see OKB as an ecosystem building asset rather than just a few days' price fluctuations. In the short term, it may continue to wear down, or even cause some short-term funds to lose patienceAccording to the latest news from Wall Street, the leading prediction platform Polymarket has completed a major financing round, led by 1789 Capital under Donald Trump Jr., with the round reaching a scale of $1 billion. The post-investment valuation surged to $21 billion, making it the hottest core track in Web3 currently pursued by top-tier capital.
This dual bet from top political capital and Wall Street funds is no coincidence; the core lies in Polymarket delivering real value that traditional Web3 projects lack.
First, it is the world's authentic event pricing center. Unlike subjective forecasts from traditional media and institutional polls, Polymarket relies on users betting real money to price events, covering all dimensions such as the U.S. elections, Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical conflicts, and industry hotspots. The largest single popular event betting scale has exceeded $80 million. The consensus of funds is far more accurate than public opinion forecasts, making it an important reference tool for institutions to assess macroeconomic trends.
Second, it builds a sustainable business closed loop. The platform does not rely on token speculation to harvest the market but depends on massive transaction fees and settled funds to maintain stable cash flow. It also has extremely strong network-wide public opinion penetration, connecting real political and economic events with on-chain liquidity, breaking away from the common "musical chairs" model seen in Web3 projects.
From the industry landscape perspective, the deep involvement of political capital in the on-chain track marks Web3's official transition from pure crypto narratives to a new stage of deep integration with real finance and geopolitical events. Prediction markets, with their real-world application scenarios, stable profitability, and continuous capital support,$BTC The current macro environment is the biggest factor suppressing Bitcoin's breakout. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up (probability has risen above 60%), mainly driven by rising oil prices and geopolitical risks pushing up inflation expectations.
Liquidity tightening concerns: A high interest rate environment typically limits the price potential of interest-free risk assets like crypto.
Key timing: The Fed meeting on September 15-16 will be a critical variable in determining the next direction. If a rate hike is confirmed, it could trigger a significant market pullback; if rates remain unchanged, it could end the "September curse" and start a new rally. $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Someone in the group asked me if I’m still holding short positions, but I didn’t dare to reply because I’m pretty panicked myself 😅
After thoroughly reviewing the market, I still have a bearish outlook. It’s not just emotional hype; the signals are too clear. According to online reports, there’s a 68% chance of a rate hike in September, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, and after Wash’s hawkish stance, the market is moving toward tighter and longer conditions. On-chain whales have been transferring BTC and ETH to exchanges; the sideways movement is a sign of distribution, not accumulation, and ETH is even weaker than BTC. 21 banks issued stablecoins, Broadcom exceeded expectations, Snowflake rose 24%, but $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. The positive news can’t push prices up, indicating the internal structure is already bearish.
I used to believe the positive news would trigger a catch-up rally, but I chased in and got stuck for half a month, losing 2300 and cutting losses to exit. My judgment is simple: if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, it will directly break through 76000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the real judge. In Wash’s framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment doesn’t mean no rate hikes.
Are you still holding long positions? Let me see in the comments how many people are going against me 😂 Don’t blame me if you lose; I’m still holding on myself. What is driving CRV coin towards the 10U mark?
📊 Basic calculations
CRV circulating supply is about 1.55 billion tokens.
If the coin price reaches 10U, the corresponding market cap would need to be: 15.5 billion USD.
Compared to the current market cap in the hundreds of millions, this requires a market cap growth of several tens of times.
The historical CRV peak was 15.37U, which was created by a special environment with very few early bull market chips.
✅ Five core pillars CRV must rely on to reach 10U
1️⃣ Business explosion: crvUSD and Llamalend lending become the second growth curve
Curve’s traditional advantage is low slippage trading of stablecoins; relying only on spot stablecoin trading makes it difficult to support a market cap at the hundred-billion level.
- Wide adoption of crvUSD algorithmic stablecoin, Llamalend V2 lending market volume expansion, lending interest becomes a major new source of protocol revenue.
- Large-scale integration of RWA (real-world assets) and institutional stablecoins into Curve pools, TVL and real trading volume multiply, protocol fee income surges.
Revenue is the foundation of CRV’s value; the protocol’s real profit scale determines the attractiveness of veCRV locking.
2️⃣ veCRV locking flywheel continues to strengthen, large amounts of circulating tokens voluntarily locked
Currently, voluntary (veCRV) locking accounts for about 68% of the circulating supply.
To reach 10U, it requires:
- Protocol dividend income continues to rise, attracting more holders to actively lock CRV into veCRV;
- Further contraction of sellable liquid tokens on the market;
- "Curve wars" replay, whales competing for governance weight, actively absorbing circulating tokens.
Note: veCRV is user voluntary locking, not project team locking; in bearish markets, locks expiring will release large sell pressure.
3️⃣ Inflation pressure is largely hedged, DAO governance optimizes token release
CRV’s biggest long-term burden: continuous inflation issuance from liquidity mining every year, decreasing by 16% annually, continuously producing new CRV distributed to LP miners.
To reach 10U, one of the following must be achieved:
1. DAO votes to significantly reduce mining emission rate, lowering new token supply;
2. Protocol revenue is large enough that dividend income fully covers selling pressure caused by inflation.
The team and investor tokens have long been fully unlocked, so no large team unlock sell pressure exists, which is a major advantage for CRV, but mining inflation remains a long-term constraint.
4️⃣ Defend the moat of the track, prevent competitors from eroding market share
CRV’s foundation is low slippage trading of stablecoins and staked derivatives.
Competitors like Uniswap and Aerodrome continuously compete for stablecoin liquidity pools.
- Must maintain leadership in stablecoin trading;
- Expand multi-chain deployment, spreading Curve protocol to more public chains to enlarge the ecosystem footprint.
Losing core track market share will shrink revenue and invalidate all upward logic.
5️⃣ Super bull market environment, DeFi sector sees institutional capital inflow
10U is a very high target, difficult to achieve by project development alone, relying on external macro environment:
- Overall crypto bull market, large-scale capital returning to established DeFi blue chips;
- Clear DeFi regulatory environment, institutional capital allocating to DeFi underlying protocols;
- Market willing to assign high valuations to DeFi track.#FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday. Don't overhype the impact of Nonfarm Payrolls on the mid-to-long-term market trend.
On the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, market trading tends to be cautious, with $BTC continuously tugging back and forth between the 77000‑78000 range. Leading employment indicators have weakened, but expectations for rate hikes remain high. Nonfarm Payrolls are just the appetizer; the core factor deciding whether there will be a rate hike in September is next week's CPI report.
Strong data tends to increase downward pressure, while weak data may test higher levels. Tonight, focus on the directional breakout of the range.
Do you think Nonfarm Payrolls will drive the price to break down, or trigger a rebound rally? Robinhood Coin Stock Meme NUDES Market Cap Surpasses $23 Million, Hits New High On September 4th, according to GMGN data, the market cap of the Coin Stock Meme project NUDES on Robinhood Chain surpassed $23 million, reaching a historic high, with a 24-hour increase of over 113% and a trading volume of $13.9 million. NUDES is paired with tokenized US stock Snap, ticker symbol SNAP. NUDES represents the emerging Coin Stock Meme gameplay. Unlike traditional Meme coins paired with USDT or ETH, Coin Stock Meme directly pairs Meme coins with on-chain tokenized US stocks; NUDES is paired with the tokenized US stock Snap. This model retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative nature of Meme coins while leveraging the popularity and narrative of real stocks. Transaction fees often partially flow back to the community treasury to accumulate the corresponding US stock tokens, creating a dual-driven structure of sentiment speculation and real asset anchoring. This market trend reflects a new fusion of tokenized stocks and Meme culture: as traditional broker Robinhood enters the on-chain ecosystem, tokenized US stocks are becoming a new narrative vehicle for on-chain speculative capital, and the derived Meme gameplay is gaining independent popularity and liquidity. However, it must be made clear that the prices of such assets are entirely driven by community sentiment and short-term capital, lacking fundamental support. The explosion in market cap and trading volume does not represent substantial capital inflow into the corresponding stocks, nor does itAs BTC quickly surged from 63,000 to 80,000, traditional finance professionals have started paying attention to the crypto space again.
Over the past week or so, I’ve been invited to calls by more than 20 leading brokerages and traditional buy-side institutions, all asking how to view this Bitcoin rally—whether the bear market is truly over or if it’s just a short squeeze.
Here are a few personal judgments, not investment advice:
1️⃣ Bitcoin has always been known for its large volatility and explosive rallies; it just lost the spotlight to AI over the past year. Now that the AI hype is reaching a turning point, Bitcoin is simply returning to its former self.
2️⃣ Bitcoin is a stubborn asset—every cycle, some people short it out of disbelief, only to end up fueling the rally.
3️⃣ The low of 57,800 in this cycle was most likely caused by market panic triggered by the Strategy board’s approval of coin sales on June 29. Although Strategy has sold coins multiple times since, it hasn’t broken that low again, indicating the market has mentally adjusted.
4️⃣ The highs in AI hardware stocks in May-June were purely emotion-driven, just like every peak in Bitcoin bull markets. This sector remains extremely crowded, with capital continuing to flow out, so only lower highs are expected over the next 12 months.
5️⃣ The macro environment is indeed under pressure, but that’s long-term pressure. Crypto assets still have room to run at this level. Plus, some people outside our industry are even more anxious; our scale is small, so everything is subject to change.
6️⃣ In this rally so far, conservatively 70% of native crypto participants have missed out, and 99% of outsiders have missed out. There’s no worry about a lack of buyers or no one getting on board.
7️⃣ Previous bear markets took 12-13 months to recover, with maximum drawdowns often exceeding 70%. This time, neither the magnitude nor the duration has reached that level.
8️⃣ Speaking of which, it just broke 81,000 again. If it breaks 83,000, we could see prices in the 90,000s.On September 2nd, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs rebounded to 1,259,084.11 BTC, with a net increase of 1,637.20 BTC on the day, partially recovering the outflows from September 1st, but the recovery strength is still insufficient.
The net outflow on September 1st was 3,153.48 BTC, and the inflow on September 2nd only recouped about half of that, so the past two days resemble funds being tugged back and forth at a high level rather than returning to the continuous and stable accumulation seen at the end of August.
In the first three trading days of this week, the cumulative net increase was 1,083.06 BTC, and over the past seven trading days, the cumulative net increase was 8,828.45 BTC, indicating that short-term capital flow remains positive, but the advantage has clearly narrowed, with strength not comparable to the last week of August.
Structurally, the BTC capital inflow on September 2nd was still relatively concentrated. The BTC inflow that day was not a broad-based recovery but mainly supported by a few products, especially BlackRock.单日28倍！苹果配对币股Meme ICOIN市值突破550万美元 9月4日，据GMGN行情数据，Robinhood Chain上的币股Meme ICOIN市值突破550万美元，创近期新高并逼近580万美元的历史最高点，24小时涨幅超28倍，成交量达890万美元。ICOIN的特别之处在于，它不与USDT或ETH配对，而是直接与代币化美股苹果（AAPL）组成交易对。 币股Meme（Stock Meme）是近期兴起的一种链上玩法：将传统Meme币与代币化美股直接绑定，交易对不再是USDT或ETH，而是NVDA、TSLA、AAPL等链上股票代币。这种设计一方面保留了Meme币高波动、社区驱动的投机属性，另一方面挂靠真实股票的热度与叙事，吸引两类资金叠加关注。机制上，此类币种的交易手续费往往部分回流社区金库，用于持续积累对应的美股代币，从而形成「情绪炒作+真实资产锚定」的双重驱动模式。ICOIN单日28倍的涨幅正是这一模式的典型体现：苹果的全球知名度为代币提供天然话题度，链上社区的资金接力则进一步放大波动。需要注意的是，550万美元的市值规模仍然很小，流动性有限，价格极易被少量资金推动，追高风险Robinhood Chain volume keeps climbing. Dune shows $1.89B in 24h DEX volume, and DeFiLlama puts 24h chain revenue near $3.38M, above most major chains. Built on Arbitrum's stack, it has generated licensing income for Arbitrum DAO, supporting ARB's revenue narrative. Memes like CashCat and Pons drive most of the heat, so the question is whether this becomes real trading and RWA demand or just hype and subsidies. OKX's built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with 0 gas fee perks.$Today, the brightest star in the crypto market isn't BTC, but ZEC. It surged 13% in a single day, reaching a peak of $950, an eight-year high. Starting from this year's bottom of just over $60, it's already increased 15 times. Many people are still confused, but Stroll Goose will break down why this surge is happening. Five catalysts are fermenting simultaneously, and none can be missing: First, Grayscale's Zcash Trust ETF is officially launched. This is the most critical increment—compliant institutions and traditional funds finally have a direct channel to buy ZEC, so they no longer have to risk on exchanges. After the ETF launched, funds kept flowing in, directly driving up the price. Second, Grayscale released a major research report positioning ZEC as "the core privacy infrastructure to combat financial surveillance in the AI era." This narrative is clever—the more advanced AI becomes, the more valuable data privacy becomes, and Zcash's trading blocking feature hits this pain point. Third, Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain publicly revealed that he heavily invested in ZEC this year. His reasoning is straightforward: Zcash best fits Satoshi Nakamoto's original cypherpunk vision—privacy, censorship resistance, financial freedom—these things are even scarcer today. Fourth, the Halo2 technology upgrade is implemented. This upgrade completely removes the old issue of "trusted settings," making private transactions faster, lighter, and more secure. Technically, Zcash has already pulled ahead of other privacy coins, which is a real fundamental improvement. Fifth, and the most direct trigger—short liquidation. ChainSun Yuchen's BTC, ETH, and USDT mostly belong to Huobi users, many of which have been repeatedly leveraged through on-chain cyclic loans, so the truly available portion may be far less than the book value.
The book valuation of TRX is about 19.4 billion, but even a slight sell-off could trigger a panic stampede because there simply isn't enough liquidity.
He cannot recklessly squander the assets of Huobi users.
If a run on Huobi occurs, he must sell assets to meet withdrawal demands.🟢 Markets & Trading: Recovery Conditional on Easing Geopolitical Concerns and Inflationary 🕊️ Pressures Geopolitical Landscape: Markets on Thursday witnessed a rebound and breathing after the panic caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict subsided. This recovery came behind the scenes of news that Trump is considering an official declaration to end the war, which led to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and the price of Brent crude falling from $96 levels on Wednesday to below $95. Analysis: Despite this decline, oil prices remain 40% higher compared to the same period in the United States. ⚠️After a comprehensive review, I remain bearish.
It's not just emotional hype; the signals from the market are too clear.
On the macro level, it's all negative. The probability of a rate hike in September is 68%, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, liquidity is tightening, not loosening. After Waller turned hawkish, the market's pricing for rate hikes is moving toward "tighter and longer," not "tightening then easing." #日本长债收益率升至高位
On-chain, the chips are loosening. Whales have been transferring $BTC and $ETH to exchanges continuously; a sideways market is a sign of selling, not accumulation. $ETH is weaker than $BTC, and whales have never stopped moving coins to exchanges.
On the news front, all positives have lost effect. Broadcom's earnings beat expectations, Snowflake surged 24%, 21 banks issued stablecoins, yet $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. Positive news can't drive the market, but negative news triggers a stampede. This only shows the market's internal structure is already bearish. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
The conclusion now is simple: if the non-farm payroll data beats expectations, it will directly break through 76,000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the ultimate judge, and in Waller's framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment does not mean no rate hikes. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC, $ETH, and $SOL — all three are bearish. Until the direction changes, do not easily turn bullish Can TRUMP still hold? Let's be realistic
The surge in late August was basically driven by two things: the White House crypto meeting calling for the CLARITY Act, and the early brewing expectations for the midterm elections. TRUMP, as a sentiment indicator, is much more volatile than BTC, with funds rushing in all at once.
Now, in early September, the logic has changed. Some of the positive news has been realized, and funds are starting to wait and see, no longer rushing in blindly.
From now on, just watch three lines:
① Progress of the CLARITY Act — verbal calls and actual implementation are two different things; the tug-of-war between the House and Senate will be long, and cooling off would be the biggest negative.
② Midterm election polls — every time the polls fluctuate, TRUMP moves accordingly; this is its pricing anchor.
③ Selling pressure — project teams hold a lot of tokens, unlocking and dumping can crash the market anytime; this is unpredictable and must be guarded against.
To be honest: TRUMP is essentially still a Meme coin, with no fundamentals, relying entirely on narrative and sentiment. It rises fast and falls even faster. In the short term, it will likely oscillate and wear people down; directional choices need new news to ignite.
Control your position size, and don't mistake expectations for results. Multiple negative factors hitting at once do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will plunge deeply.
The escalation of the Middle East situation has driven oil prices and US Treasury yields higher, causing BTC to quickly pull back, and the market has significantly raised the probability of a rate hike in September. Weak ADP data also failed to reverse the market's hawkish pricing, but trading markets often front-run pessimistic expectations.
Non-farm payrolls are the biggest variable this week; contract odds only represent current sentiment and cannot lock in the Fed's final decision. The 68,000‑75,000 range is just a pessimistic estimate, not necessarily the bottom range that will be reached. Geopolitical shocks are mostly short-term pulse fluctuations, and after the data is released, sentiment may actually recover. It is safer to stay on the sidelines and wait for clear signals.
Do you think the non-farm payrolls will trigger a new round of decline, or will the negative factors settle and lead to a rebound?
⚠️ Opinions are for communication only and do not constitute investment advice
$BTCGetting ready for the next move. 🚀
A September Fed hike looks increasingly unlikely, especially if tomorrow’s payrolls come in soft. That could strengthen the case for a rate cut before year-end.
For me, the CPI print matters less than the broader direction of monetary policy.
USD/JPY also looks stretched after its major move, with plenty of room for a potential pullback.
#SaudiCrude9YearLow #SECMarketModernization #LastNFPBeforeFOMC Summarizing Waller's speech, the core message is to weaken the expectation of a rate hike in September, but logically it depends on the inflation data from August, especially the PPI on September 10 and the CPI on September 11.
However, there is a problem here: the market currently does not have mainstream expected values for PPI and CPI, so on what basis does the market believe that August's inflation data can prevent a rate cut? Is there any foundation for this, or is it a desperate and reckless move?
Moreover, international crude oil prices have remained around $85-90 throughout August. In such a high oil price environment, it is actually difficult for inflation to ease significantly, and crude oil is very likely to trigger a secondary inflation, causing core PCE to also show sticky increases.
After Waller's speech, the expectation of a September rate hike was weakened, but bond yields still rebounded, which means gold and the dollar have started trading as if there will be no rate hike, and the market has not shown a one-sided view.
If tomorrow's employment data cannot provide a boost, all the optimism today might be a false hope, and with so much said by Walsh today, doesn't that contradict Walsh's own stance? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Crypto rises, semiconductors fall policy drives both.
Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments reduced Fed hike odds from 63% to 60%, supporting BTC and major crypto.
Meanwhile, potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs pressured $SNDK , $MU , $xQCOM and the broader chip sector.
One night, two policy signals two very different market reactions.
#OKX #BTC #Crypto #Markets
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops Short sellers collectively got shaken out; this round I stepped into a consolidation trap.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw short positions liquidated up to 420 million, with many shorts like me expecting a pullback, directly swept out by a short-term rally.
From the data, BTC and ETH spot funds have significantly flowed back in short term; BTC net inflow exceeded 400 million in 24 hours, and ETH also saw nearly 90 million in buying. On a 7-day scale, funds are still flowing out. I originally judged this as just a rebound to lure longs, expecting the market to soon return to a downtrend, so I positioned short accordingly.
But the actual price action was far more frustrating than imagined. There was no deep correction; instead, the price slowly rose relying on continuous small buy orders, triggering stop losses for contract shorts repeatedly. Although the overall long-short ratio slightly favored longs without extreme bullish frenzy, the damage from a choppy market far exceeded that of a trending market.
Looking back now, the biggest mistake was using trend-based thinking to trade a consolidation. Clearly, there was no definite breakdown signal on the chart, yet I subjectively predicted a top and rushed to short, ultimately getting chopped back and forth. $ETH can only endure.AI intervention in crypto trading: How ordinary people can establish a relative advantage
Currently, a large number of AI trading agents participate in BTC and the crypto market. AI has natural advantages in data scanning, multi-asset monitoring, execution discipline, and 24/7 continuous market watching. However, AI has inherent shortcomings: it heavily relies on historical training data, and when facing entirely new narratives, black swan events, or market paradigm shifts, it may experience model fitting failures; it also lacks deep understanding of geopolitical, policy, and new market narratives, and is easily misled by false market signals.
We don’t need to compete with AI on speed or high-frequency computing; instead, we should leverage uniquely human advantages.
1. Recognize market paradigm shifts
AI requires a large number of candlestick samples to confirm market patterns. Humans can anticipate macro turning points and narrative rotations in advance, such as non-farm payrolls, policy news, and major product catalysts, capturing turning point opportunities before AI completes model adaptation.
2. Narrative and theme judgment
AI can only statistically analyze keyword popularity but struggles to deeply interpret emerging themes, community consensus, and the funding psychology behind events. The early stage of a new story is the main advantage window for humans.
3. Avoid AI-crowded tracks
Stay away from millisecond-level arbitrage and ultra-short contract scalping where AI dominates. We focus on swing trading, event-driven, and thematic trend trading to compete in a differentiated way.
4. Humans make decisions, AI serves as a tool (human-machine collaboration)
Humans set the overall direction, select trading themes, and define risk boundaries; AI handles data organization, signal filtering, and mechanical execution of take-profit and stop-loss. Humans retain final decision-making authority Recently, due to a significant pullback in the hardware sector since July, many friends heavily invested in this field have felt a poor holding experience and are filled with anxiety. In response to this sentiment, what I want to share with everyone is that looking ahead to the second half of the year, hardware will still be the most core narrative in the entire market. The reason for this judgment is that, in the current market, hardware is one of the few sectors supported by strong fundamentals.
Specifically, in the industry chain, whether chips can be successfully delivered ultimately depends on two key links: optics and packaging & testing. Entering the second half of the year, orders in the packaging & testing and optics fields will see large-scale volume increases. It is especially worth noting that the real demand in the optics field currently far exceeds the market's existing maximum supply level; even if the current capacity is tripled, further expansion is still needed.
The reason why the hardware sector's performance at this stage is unsatisfactory is merely due to short-term market expectation deviations. This phenomenon is very common in the stock market. Looking back at a previous period, whether it was gold, Bitcoin, or the software sector, they all experienced similar adjustment processes.
In the process of investing and trading stocks, the biggest challenge to gaining profits lies in how to fight against one's own emotions. Once impatience arises due to market conditions, rash decisions such as reckless opening of positions will definitely be made. It should be known that those who truly make money in the market are often not the smartest investors, but those who choose to hold on during the moments when persistence is most needed.Now is not the time to chase gains; it feels more like a game where both bulls and bears are struggling to survive. Have you ever had a moment when, even after judging the direction, the price seems to be deliberately working against you, slowly wearing down your patience? I stared at the screen, watching the $BTC and $ETH candlesticks climbing one by one, and the floating losses in my account fluctuated along with them. The most tormenting part of this market isn't a crash, but a frog-like reverse movement in warm water—you know using leverage to take positions is dangerous, but you always think "holding on a bit longer will break even." What is the market actually trading in this round of rebound? On the surface, it looks like a strong $SOL is driving the market, but deeper down, funds are betting on an expectation: if Friday's nonfarm payroll data is really weak, the Fed will have more reason to switch to dovish. Broadcom's better-than-expected earnings and Snowflake's upward guidance have warmed tech stocks, and this spillover of risk appetite naturally spills over into crypto assets. However, I must remind myself of one thing: Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a nine-year low, and the inflation shadow caused by soaring oil prices has not been fully priced in by the market. If Friday's data is unexpectedly strong, or oil prices continue to push inflation expectations higher, these current long-chasing positions will become fuel for the next round of shakeouts. In terms of sector strength, it's clear that funds are flowing back from pure meme and AI concepts to fundamentally backed Layer 1s and infrastructure. $SOL's on-chain activity is indeed recovering, but its ecosystem tokens haven't kept pace, and this divergence usually means the market is still in the early stages of divergence.#Robinhood Chain volume surges, ARB revenue narrative heats up $ARB surged nearly 50% this week, $BTC is still hovering around 77,000, $ETH stuck at 2,390. Why? Robinhood Chain has started paying taxes to ARB.
Robinhood Chain is built on Arbitrum Orbit, generating $13 million in fee revenue within two months of launch, with 10% of net revenue returned to the $ARB ecosystem per protocol. $ARB has its first cash flow from a single major client, transforming from a “governance token” into an “interest-bearing asset.”
$BTC is suppressed by macro factors, $ETH can’t keep up, $ARB enjoys a unique narrative premium. But 139 million tokens unlock on September 23, and gas subsidies expire in early October, so be cautious chasing the highs.👊
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Tomorrow night at 20:30, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report drops, and I’m watching this one very closely. The market is currently expecting roughly 60K new jobs. My personal estimate is closer to 30K–40K because recent labor-market signals have been losing momentum. If NFP confirms that weakness, volatility across BTC and altcoins could increase quickly. Here’s how I’m looking at the scenarios 👇 1️⃣ NFP BELOW 40K — MAJOR MISS This would be a serious warning that the labor market is cooling fastThe U.S. Department of Justice has this time investigated Hamas's $560,000 in crypto assets and also took over the fundraising website. The amount isn't large, but the signal is strong: Enforcement of crypto assets has become a routine operation at the national security level. Honestly, $560,000 might be just a drop in the bucket for terror financing, but what the DOJ and FBI want is the deterrent effect of "I can investigate, I can freeze." This is actually good news for public chains like BitcIt is now 12:45 AM, and $BTC Bitcoin is roughly around $80,800 to $81,000. Yesterday's surge from over $77,000 to $81,300 rose by about 4%, closing near $81,300.
Last night's rally was mainly driven by short liquidations. After the price dropped to around $76,900, leveraged short positions were liquidated en masse, creating a chain of buy orders that pushed the price all the way up. This was not a large influx of new funds, but more of a passive short squeeze.
The background is that after the big surge in August, the market has been oscillating between $76,000 and $80,000. In September, there are expectations of interest rate hikes and geopolitical risks affecting oil prices, so this move looks more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.The sharp surge on September 3rd where BTC hit 80,500 and ETH touched 2,494 is not a new bull run, but an overnight reaction of “dovish expectation repair + short squeeze forcing shorts to cover":
① Macro view is hot: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations + Waller hinted "August inflation cooling means no rate hike in September," CME's September rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%, 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.818%, and risk assets collectively loosened.
② Shorts were squeezed: When BTC surged to 80,400, 24h short liquidations dominated (short covering strongly bought into the bullish candle), but the price retreated to 77,500 by the end of the day, a double kill for longs and shorts, with liquidations around 150–250 million USD.
③ ETF took over but did not ignite: BTC ETF net inflow was 3.5 billion in August, and on September 2nd a single-day positive inflow of 101 million (mainly IBIT), acting as support rather than a charge; Coinbase premium 7-day average remains negative, US spot real buying has not returned.
④ Resistance not broken: There is a supply wall of 1.05 million long-term holders between 83,000–86,000, three attempts to break 80,000 were all pushed back to 77,500, RSI daily is overbought at 70+.
In essence = a short-covering rebound triggered by marginal easing of rate hike panic, ETF provides support but US buying is weak. Failure to hold above 80,000 means a retest at 74,000–76,000; a real reversal depends on the triple test of Nonfarm Payrolls + CPI + 9/15 FOMC.Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings look pretty strong, Snowflake up 24%, Broadcom's AI revenue doubled, and yet $BTC and $ETH are like this?
$BTC is still hovering around 77,000-78,000, $ETH can't even hold 2,400, lying at 2,390. AI stocks are soaring like this, but crypto is like dead water, not following at all.
The market is basically not pricing in the AI narrative, but the macro issues. 68% chance of a rate hike before non-farm payrolls, US Treasury yield at 4.8%, Japanese government bonds breaking 3%, who still cares if Broadcom's guidance is high or not? Once liquidity tightens, all risk assets have to kneel. AI earnings at most support sentiment to prevent a sharp crash, pulling the market up? Don't even think about it. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
This news is really no good, positive news is done but prices don't move, it's digesting the negative. Wait for non-farm payrolls and CPI #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$OKB The float hasn't moved, don't rush to pull the rod yet
Today's bearish candle isn't just the crypto world scaring itself
$BTC hit a low of 76,300, closing between 77,300–77,600. $ETH retraced to 2,390–2,430. $SOL broke below the 100 psychological level, OKB slid from 111 to 106, dropping four to five points in a single day. The fear and greed index is still in the greed zone but has clearly cooled off a bit
The market situation boils down to one thing: the 79,000–80,000 resistance above can't be broken, and 76,000 below is temporarily supported. The structure isn't broken, but these past three days haven't provided evidence of a main upward wave
Don't just focus on the crypto market for the reason behind the drop. The US-Iran conflict flared up again, oil prices rose above 90, US Treasury yields climbed, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen above 66%. Crypto assets don't pay interest, so when rate hike expectations rise, capital is the first to flee them
Institutions haven't fled; they're just repositioning. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion in August, with slight outflows in the first two days of September, while Solana ETFs actually attracted 100 million. This is profit-taking after a rise, not an exit
Next, focus on two points: whether 76,000 can hold; and Friday's non-farm payrolls.
The float hasn't moved, don't jump in prematurely
— Fisherman
September 3, 2026
The above is a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 A coin that calls itself "USELESS" surged 2.7 times in a month and even printed its logo on a La Liga giant's jersey
I've seen coins bragging about "disrupting the industry," but have you ever seen an official coin calling itself "I am useless"?
$USELESS, a meme on Solana, has been slacking since its launch: no staking, no governance, no utility, with just one slogan — "zero utility, zero purpose, 100% vibe."
In short, it's a coin specifically mocking those projects in the crypto space that "dare to hype everything."
So what happened? It became the most surreal one in this market wave:
1 Wore the giant's jersey
The limited edition jersey of La Liga's Atlético Madrid even has the USELESS Kraken logo on the sleeve patch, just because it won a community vote. A coin that calls itself useless ended up on the jersey of a top-five league giant — the irony is too strong.
2 Korean KOLs are promoting it
The Korean KOL community is pushing it, with daily trading volume tripling. Sentiment like this is hard to stop once it starts.
3 It also has a deflationary design
Total supply is 100 trillion, with 25% burned, relying on a "buy-to-burn" mechanism, so the more you buy, the less there is.
But to be honest: the crazier this coin rises, the more cautious you should be. On-chain data shows the top 10 wallets hold 30% of the supply, whales control nearly half — in other words, it's a game for big players. If you chase in today, you might just be the counterparty to their sell-off.Iran announced missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base, a US military base in Kuwait. Kuwait's air defense system intercepted for the second consecutive night, and a US military-related residential area was also attacked by drones, causing a fire. This signals a new scope of conflict: previously focused on direct US-Iran confrontation, the retaliation network is now spreading to US military-hosting countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The risk is extending from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf base system 😔
However, the market reaction is quite intriguing. Brent crude is around $95.2, WTI about $90.8, both slightly retreating intraday. The reason is that no new large-scale clashes between the US and Iran have been confirmed within hours, and Trump also hinted that this round of actions will not last long, so the geopolitical premium has somewhat receded.
Currently, there are two distinctly different paths: if Iran continues targeting US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to $BTC; if both sides limit strikes to military targets, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover, and risk aversion sentiment will cool down accordingly.
The current assessment is still preliminary. The US side reports no casualties so far, and specific damages are yet to be verified. The situation remains a highly uncertain window, price volatility may intensify, please manage risks cautiously. Divergence between funds and contract signals indicates a short-term market entering a game window
From the perspective of spot fund flows, BTC and ETH have seen large net inflows in the past 24 hours, with BTC net inflow at 404 million and ETH inflow close to 90 million, indicating short-term buying is entering the market. However, over a 7-day period, both major coins still show net fund outflows, suggesting that the current market is dominated by short-term fund games, and large-scale medium- to long-term capital has not yet returned.
An interesting divergence appears on the contract side: the overall network long-short ratio slightly favors longs, with longs accounting for 51.2%, showing a small gap between long and short forces. However, liquidation data sends an opposite signal: total liquidations in 24 hours reached 510 million, with short liquidations as high as 420 million, indicating a large number of shorts were wiped out in a short time.
Spot is buying, shorts are being liquidated, but longs have not formed an overwhelming advantage—this is a typical consolidation and shakeout pattern.
After short-term shorts exit, the market is more likely to enter a choppy tug-of-war. For longs to break upward, incremental funds need to continue increasing. If spot inflows cannot be sustained, the persistence of the rebound is questionable.
Currently, it is not suitable to chase the rally; focus on observing whether spot funds can continue to flow in and the volume situation at key price levels.
$BTC $ETH