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🌫️ $BTC + $ETH｜There really aren't any particularly clear trading signals right now.
Last night, $BTC dropped sharply, briefly touching around $83.5K at its lowest, then rebounded to consolidate around $84K–$85K. There's limited room to short now, and going long lacks confirmation — the most comfortable move might actually be to wait and watch for the time being.
🔵 $ETH is following a similar rhythm. The price briefly fell below $2.65K, then bounced back to around $2.67K–$2.70K, where short-term longs and shorts are easily shaken out.
⚠️ Additionally, BTC/ETH have a significant options expiry this Friday, which could further amplify short-term volatility. Market data shows that as of September 25, BTC options open interest is about $15.7B, and ETH about $2.1B.
My thinking is simple: ➡️ BTC firmly reclaims $85K + volume increase → then look for bullish continuation
➡️ BTC falls below $83.5K → watch for further pullback
➡️ ETH recovers above $2.70K → observe for rebound confirmation
➡️ No confirmation on either side → better not to trade than to force a direction
This is not a "must bet" market right now.
Sometimes, No Trade is also a trading strategy. 🧠
Are you currently staying flat waiting, lightly testing positions, or continuing to hold?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTCPullback #AltRotation #CBTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation begun?
$BTC
BTC surged then pulled back, has not yet entered a definite sector rotation, currently only at BTC high-level profit-taking and market observation phase. This round of pullback is profit-taking at the 87247 wave peak, the current market is undergoing wide-range consolidation digestion, not a rotation where funds massively switch from BTC to Altcoins; key observation: whether BTC pulls back and altcoins resist the trend or strengthen, that is the rotation confirmation signal.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
1. After BTC surged then pulled back breaking below the Bollinger middle band, it entered the lower range test phase, support at 83450. Holding the range maintains the consolidation pattern; if volume breaks below 83450, overall market risk appetite declines, and rotation expectations are directly falsified.
2. Rotation confirmation criteria (must satisfy all) ✅ BTC weakens in consolidation, but mainstream altcoins and small coins no longer hit new lows simultaneously ✅ Stablecoin funds flow back, Alt market cap share rises ❌ Current status: BTC pullback drives most coins down simultaneously, indicating systemic risk suppression, not fund rotation.
3. If BTC finds support and stabilizes near 83450, and altcoins show resistance, then conditions for BTC resting and funds rotating to Altcoins are met; if BTC breaks down, avoid all long positions and do not speculate on rotation. Austria's Raiffeisen Bank ($235 billion in assets) announced the launch of crypto trading through Bitpanda in 11 European markets.
The highlight is not "another bank doing crypto," but the path it chose:
No building its own exchange, no self-custody; it directly integrates a compliant trading platform as infrastructure. This is becoming the standard approach in Europe—
Banks provide customers and licenses, platforms provide liquidity, custody, and execution, each focusing on their strengths.
This is far more valuable than "a bank launching a crypto fund" because it integrates crypto into the bank's everyday retail channels, allowing users to buy without leaving the app.
Institutional entry truly begins to scale often starting from this unglamorous but replicable cooperation.BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation begun?
$BTC
BTC surged then pulled back, has not yet entered a definite sector rotation, currently only at BTC high-level profit-taking and market observation phase. This round of pullback is profit-taking at the 87247 wave peak, the current market is undergoing wide-range consolidation digestion, not a rotation where funds massively switch from BTC to Altcoins; key observation: whether BTC pulls back and altcoins resist the trend or strengthen, that is the rotation confirmation signal.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
1. After BTC surged then pulled back breaking below the Bollinger middle band, it entered the lower range test phase, support at 83450. Holding the range maintains the consolidation pattern; if volume breaks below 83450, overall market risk appetite declines, and rotation expectations are directly falsified.
2. Rotation confirmation criteria (must satisfy all) ✅ BTC weakens in consolidation, but mainstream altcoins and small coins no longer hit new lows simultaneously ✅ Stablecoin funds flow back, Alt market cap share rises ❌ Current status: BTC pullback drives most coins down simultaneously, indicating systemic risk suppression, not fund rotation.
3. If BTC finds support and stabilizes near 83450, and altcoins show resistance, then conditions for BTC resting and funds rotating to Altcoins are met; if BTC breaks down, avoid all long positions and do not speculate on rotation. A friend who has just entered the crypto market asked me: Is the short-term holder cost line re-crossing the long-term holder cost line—is this signal really reliable? From a market structure perspective, changes in this cost base are indeed often used to observe cyclical momentum. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that as of September 22, about 3.5 million BTC belong to a specific group according to recent statistics, while BTC unmoved for over a year accounts for about 63.3% of circulating supply, indicating that a large amount of tokens are still in a long-term holding. (Maketo) So I prefer to interpret this signal as: short-term funds are regaining activity, but this does not mean the entire market has completed trend confirmation. Recently, BTC has regained its position around $85K–$86K, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite; Meanwhile, Strategy recently bought another 950 BTC, bringing its holdings to about 846,000 BTC. (Barron's) Additionally, CME announced plans to launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19, still pending regulatory review, indicating that institutional-grade crypto derivatives are continuing to expand. (CME Group Investor) But for long-term holders, what truly matters is not a single indicator, but 📌 whether the old coin has started to move continuously 📌, whether supply to long-term holders has significantly declined 📌, whether new funds can continue to absorb 📌 it, and whether a new stable cost zone can form after BTC breakout. Indicators can signal changes in the market,$RAY Originally wanted to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself.
Last night at dawn, I was watching the market and saw that RAY's support didn't break, the bottom was grinding sideways, and buying pressure was gradually strengthening. I said at the time, don't rush to sell; if the pullback can hold, there's hope, someone is catching below.
The market waits to be seized, profits are held onto. Risk control is done upfront, called rationality; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action.
As a result, it went from 1.6416 all the way to 2.0989, +557.13% straight to the pocket. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet. This piece of meat was enjoyed comfortably.
First take profit on 70%, move the stop-loss for the remaining 30% close to the cost price. Let profits run if it continues to rise, and don't let gains become uncomfortable if it falls back.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$XRP $ETH 华尔街盈利预期23周来首次转负，风险资产要注意什么？ 花旗数据显示，美国企业盈利预期23周来首次转负，下调盈利预期的分析师人数首次超过上调者，结束了自2021年以来持续时间最长的一轮盈利上修周期。
这次真正值得关注的不是“看空美股”，而是盈利预期第一次出现拐点，而与此同时美债收益率和美元都在走强。
传导逻辑：能源/生活成本↑→通胀压力↑→利率维持高位甚至进一步上行→企业融资成本↑→利润率承压→盈利预期下修→股票估值承压→风险偏好下降→BTC等高Beta资产承压。
短线看两个情景：
**①盈利预期继续下修+美债收益率↑+美元↑→风险资产承压。**如果美股继续走弱，同时BTC也跌破关键支撑，说明宏观压力正在向加密市场传导。
**②盈利预期转弱，但美债收益率回落+美元走弱→风险资产出现修复。**这意味着市场已经开始交易“盈利利空”，利率压力反而缓解，BTC可能出现独立反弹。
个人判断：23周连续上修被打破，本身不是暴跌信号，但它意味着市场开始从“盈利不断超预期”切换到“盈利还能不能继续上修”。
所以短线不要只盯美股涨跌，重点看：盈利预期→10Y美债→美元→纳指→BTC。
如果前四项同步恶化，$XOM
Brent crude rebounds 3.9%, has the risk premium for energy stocks returned?
The November Brent contract rose to $103.08, ending a continuous decline. Supply concerns have resurfaced, and high oil prices benefit upstream cash flow for XOM.
However, rising oil prices also push up inflation and U.S. Treasury yields, which may suppress economic demand.
If supply remains constrained and inventories decline, earnings expectations still have room for upward revision; if negotiations make progress, geopolitical risk premiums will quickly dissipate. Energy stocks trade both cash flow and event risk simultaneously.✳️$BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation begun? This question hits the mark.🎯
Here’s the conclusion first: rotation is indeed happening, but don’t get too excited yet; it looks more like a "defensive rotation."
📊 【Logic breakdown: Why defensive?】
After BTC surged to 87,000, there’s clearly profit-taking pressure above, so a short-term breather is needed. Funds are pulling out a bit from BTC and turning to trade those mid- and small-cap coins with independent narratives. Essentially, when BTC is consolidating sideways, speculative capital inside the market is restless and seeks localized opportunities.
But there’s a big premise here: no large capital is coming from outside.
🌍 【Macro suppression: The harsh reality of a zero-sum game】
Federal Reserve officials are still hawkish, the US Treasury is draining liquidity, and the shadow of rate hikes looms. The Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs daily, sucking up global hot money. The crypto market now is a typical zero-sum game; when BTC cools off slightly, altcoins seize the chance to pump, but the rotation speed is very fast and lacks sustainability.
🔑 【Core anchor: Keep an eye on BTC】
Whether BTC holds steady is the premise for this rotation to continue. If it dips back to 82,000, most altcoin gains will be wiped out instantly.⚡
📉 As of press time: BTC -0.26%
(Source: OKX Planet 09/24 )
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Many friends compare the current market situation with that of 2023, but in fact, the structures of the two are completely different.
The market decline in 2023 was caused by USDC depegging, which led to a mass exodus of funds. Our current market trend is highly correlated with the Nasdaq. To put it simply, everyone knows that Ethereum closely follows Bitcoin, so now that Bitcoin closely follows the Nasdaq, it is more practical to focus on the Nasdaq rather than looking for patterns in past years' data.
The biggest bearish factor in this round of the market was actually the depegging event involving MSTR in June, around the 57,000 level. Apart from that, even major bearish factors like interest rate hikes only pushed Bitcoin down from 82,000 to 75,000. Other news has been all bark and no bite. So as long as the Nasdaq goes up, Bitcoin will most likely follow, and Ethereum goes without saying.
The current pullback is basically because the previous rise was too fast and too sharp, so it is normal for funds to take profits, which is commonly called profit-taking.
Going forward, Bitcoin should first consolidate and oscillate within a range for a while to absorb the selling pressure from earlier profit-taking. If the Nasdaq can hold steady and continue to rise, Bitcoin will choose to recover upward after the consolidation and challenge new highs.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Bitcoin finally pulled back, falling from the high of 87,000 the day before yesterday to around 84,000, ETH fell from 28,000 to 2,607, SOL fell from 119 to 114, and after three days of sideways movement, it finally chose to catch its breath. Note, this isn't a sharp drop, but a normal pullback after a rapid rally—Bitcoin has been up 10 points for seven days, with no trend line broken. This is when the value of placing orders early becomes clear: my first level of three limit orders is at 82,500, and the market is moving toward that level. No need to watch the market, panic, or make decisions on the spot—it's time for automatic buying. Those who chased the high a few days ago can't sleep now; those who placed orders waiting for pullbacks are now waiting to buy. Same market, two different mindsets—that's the difference in discipline. Next, keep an eye on the 82,000 level. If you hold on, it'll trigger a strong shakeout, and the contract opportunity is almost here; If it really breaks below that, the 80,000 and 78,000 levels will continue as usual. Pullbacks in a bull market aren't risk—they're meant to help you get in the board, provided you have your bullets saved and a plan set in advance, not just thinking about what to do after the price drops.【9/24 News Snapshot · Two fronts tightening simultaneously】
A logic from last night to this morning: money has become more expensive, and it's happening globally.
On one side, the cost of borrowing is rising: the US 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5.00%, with multiple rate hikes fully priced in — the inflation chapter is not over yet.
On the other side, anchored by globally low interest rates: Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to the highest since 1996, forcing a recalculation of arbitrage trades funded by low-cost yen, amplifying global asset volatility.
Risk assets took the first hit: the Nasdaq ended a four-day winning streak, US stocks collectively closed lower, crypto weakened, and Bitcoin briefly dropped below $84,000. It's a cooldown, but not a reversal yet.
A counterpoint: the US is considering promoting the use of the dollar stablecoin overseas. On one hand, borrowing costs rise; on the other, the dollar is being pushed outward — two fronts pulling in opposite directions.
When oil prices rise, you need to check the road conditions before stepping on the gas. On days of increased volatility, holding the steering wheel steady is more important than anything.
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. Several of the UK's largest banks have used on-chain settlement in a single real transfer, in the form of "tokenized deposits"—not stablecoins, nor any public chain tokens.
This difference is crucial: stablecoins are payment alternatives outside the banking system, while tokenized deposits move bank deposits on-chain; the money is still bank liabilities and remains within the regulatory framework.
What traditional finance truly wants has never been crypto assets, but a 24/7× programmable settlement layer with real-time cross-institutional clearing.
Once this line is completed, what will be replaced is not the speculative demand for stablecoins, but the slow and expensive old system of cross-border settlement and fund transfers.Afternoon of 9.24
BTC and ETH strategy reference:
Yesterday's bearish strategy has been realized. During the day, BTC dropped below 3800 points, and ETH has simultaneously fallen over 150 points so far.
Currently, the one-sided bullish view on BTC has failed; the high-level consolidation is specifically designed to trap retail traders chasing highs.
On the 2-hour chart, short-term pressure persists, with the market stuck in the 83300–85300 range.
The 15-minute highs keep moving lower. Any subsequent rebound is a bull trap, with strong resistance around 847.
Afternoon strategy: short on rallies.
BTC can be shorted around 847. Target 830; if broken, continue down to 816.
ETH can be shorted around 2710. Target 2620; if broken, continue down to 2550.
$BTC $ETH NEAR Intents has just delivered its strongest weekly cross-chain performance to date, with single-day trading volume surpassing $300M for the first time. Meanwhile, $NEAR weekly gain once reached about 92%, after which market volatility intensified significantly. What truly deserves attention may not be just the price candlestick, but the rapid growth in capital flow. In July 2025, NEAR Intents' total monthly trading volume was about $406M; while last week's weekly volume reached about $842M, more than double the monthly total. Accelerated capital activity is the signal the market needs to watch 👀 #NEAR #Crypto #DeFi #CrossChainRecently, the status of "Green Hair" has indeed been good, with several short-term trades all yielding profits.
This $ETH trade used 100x leverage to short 20 ETH. The average entry price was 2774.71, and the average exit price was 2740.33. The price actually only dropped about $34, but with high leverage amplification, the final return rate reached 118.88%, earning 659.75U, holding the position for nearly 5 hours.
This time the ETH rhythm was captured quite accurately, with no significant floating loss after entry, basically hitting the short-term pullback.
The $BTC trade was also a 100x short, but the position size reached 3.2829 BTC, with a significantly larger nominal value. The average entry was 86935, average exit 86195, price dropped about $740, final profit 2280.67U, return rate 79.91%, holding for about 4 and a half hours.
In contrast, the $ZEC trade was much smaller, using 50x leverage, shorting 11.41 ZEC in batches. The average entry was 1613.15, exit 1611.87, price only dropped $1.28, final return rate 1.58%, profit 5.82U.
The results of the three trades differ, but the common point is capturing short-term fluctuations, entering and exiting quickly. #BTCPullbackAltRotation #USIranRiskPremium #CostcoQ4EarningsWatch Doomsday vehicle ETC has made another round, and sure enough, the market has started to rain.
ETC was around $7.2 at the beginning of the month, reaching a high above $9.5, nearly a 30% increase.
Yesterday I just posted that even ETC started to catch up, the market might need a break. As it turned out in the evening, BTC really dropped from $87,000 back to $84,000, and ETH also fell below $2,700.
Of course, ETC can't really be blamed for this.
The whole market correction is mainly due to rising US Treasury yields, plus after a period of gains, leveraged and profit-taking positions want to exit first.
ETC, LTC, BCH, these old coins suddenly coming back to life is definitely worth a closer look. Usually, when BTC, ETH, and popular coins have been pumped enough and funds can't find cheap assets, they turn back to these old coins that have been dormant for a long time.
Some call this market diffusion, but I prefer to see it as the front row being full, so funds start looking for seats in the back row.
Whether this catch-up rally can continue depends not on how strong the pump is on the day, but on whether it can hold after the heat fades. If it pumps and then dumps, it's mostly just short-term funds clocking in.
ETC is not responsible for the apocalypse.
It just likes to honk its horn extra loud every time it passes by.🥹 Came across e Li Hua who cut losses on 1700 ETH in February.
This kind of analysis sounds very convincing.
But if you follow these old-timers' moves, you’re very likely to lose badly.
You think it’s reached the 86 resistance level, so you place an order at 82000 to catch the dip. But the price doesn’t dip; it shoots straight up to 88000, so you cancel your order.
Then the price really dips to 84000, and you start doubting, "Is it going to break 80000?" and hesitate to buy.
At this point, you glance at X, and it’s all bearish voices, making you even more hesitant.
Then the price rebounds to 87000, and fearing you’ve lost your chance, you chase in.
Just as you enter, it dips back to 85000.
You check X again, analysts are saying it will drop to 78000, you panic completely, sell everything, and wait for a lower price.
But then, the price might never have broken 80000 and starts rising again.
After all this, your directional judgment might have been right.
It really is a bull market. And there will indeed be corrections.
But you’ve traded in and out five or six times, and the final price hasn’t changed.
In the end, you find you have 20% fewer chips and have paid a ton in fees.
So, dear friends.
The problem is never about getting the direction wrong; it’s that you need to get several consecutive judgments right to avoid losses.
Assuming a 70% accuracy each time, which sounds impressive, the probability of getting five correct in a row is only 16.8%.
The simplest way is the best.
Buy, then do nothing, fundamentally avoiding this whole chain of decision traps.BCH surged 46.4% over 7 days, with trading volume reaching 6.3 times the 30-day average and an RPS of 93. At a glance, these are typical strong breakout metrics. But interestingly, the funding rate is only 0.01%, almost neutral. This differs from the usual pattern of "volume and price rising → sentiment excitement → funding rate increase." I observed that the driving force behind this BCH rally might not be built on contract leverage, but rather a phase shift driven by spot trading. The open interest (OI) is only $32.068 million, which is very low relative to the trading volume, indicating that a large portion of trades are short-term high-frequency orders rather than long-term capital accumulation. In this kind of market structure, sustainability depends on whether the trading volume can remain high. If the 24-hour volume falls below 3 times the 30-day average, the signal will weaken. Continue to monitor the relationship between volume and the peak; currently, chasing the highs carries both upside potential and pullback risk.
#crypto #BCH #MarketWatch #DataDriven #RiskAlert $ZEC short position entered at 1613 yesterday, felt a bit strong this morning, closed at 1513. After reviewing the market, entered a short again. From the divergence perspective, it looks like a drop is expected. Currently, breaking below 1300 should be no problem. Set a wider stop loss and hold this position a bit longer.The on-chain meme coin market has entered a slow season again, everyone should stop while they can!
In the past few days, whether on BSC or Robinhood chain, no outstanding new projects have emerged. Most likely because BTC's direction is unclear, on-chain funds are hesitant to enter the market casually.
In this kind of market, don't rush to bottom-fish. If the overall trend goes down, meme coins have no bottom, only lower lows.
Just like that previous Real Coin, after entering the harvesting mode, occasional bullish candles only serve as traps to lure retail investors, but they can't change the overall downward trend. The previous prediction that it would fall below a 100 million market cap is now basically a done deal.TRX is relatively resilient today, indicating that the narrative of stablecoin transfers and on-chain payments still provides it with some support. When the overall market weakens, capital usually pays more attention to defensive indicators such as cash flow, network usage, and stablecoin scale, where TRON has a natural advantage. If on-chain transfer activity and USDT circulation continue to be maintained recently, TRX's resilience will be easier to sustain. However, its elasticity is generally not as high as high Beta public chains, and the market tends to be slower to heat up, with the key focus on whether it can attract incremental capital attention after the market stabilizes. $TRX$ETH just took two waterfall drops, the account hasn't warmed up yet.
Shorted at 2760, closed at 2718.
Shorted at 2781, closed at 2732.
Two take-profits, with returns of 171% and 145%.
The rule is to short on highs, and today I got the sweet spot.
But looking at the current market, I stopped.
ETH dropped to 2687, touched a low of 2633.
$BTC fell below 85000, hovering at 84175.
$SNDK also pulled back, dropping to 1775.
The whole screen is leaking downwards, anyone looking wants to short.
But those who have suffered from short squeezes know that chasing now is suicide.
If you want to short, you have to wait for a bounce.
I placed a short order.
Current price 2687, order price 2715.
Looking at this market, my hands really itch.
Several times I almost couldn't resist shorting at the current price.
But I forced myself to hold back.
Not chasing is not a mistake.
If it doesn't bounce to 2715, this order shouldn't be executed.
Missing out is better than getting stabbed to death.
Short on highs, the key is the first two words.
If there's no high, I just wait patiently.
When it comes, I press.
Following the rules is more important than making money.
If it can't go up, I'll just keep watching.
This order, whether it executes or not, is fine.
Better than blindly chasing and getting stabbed flying.Just saw: On Friday (September 25) 08:00 UTC, Deribit quarterly options settlement — according to the CEO's statement to CoinDesk, BTC options nominal value is about $15.9 billion, ETH about $2.1 billion, totaling nearly $18 billion; BTC calls are dominant, put/call ratio about 0.69, approximately 55% of the $9.4 billion call nominal value is in the money. Max pain is around $75,000, still some distance from the spot price.
Ah, so that's how it is — nominal expiration amount ≠ immediate cash exchange. Dealers hedging short calls around $80,000–$87,000 may have boosted buying pressure; after settlement, hedging flows retreat, short-term volatility may rise, and the range may reset — this does not mean the trend is fixed, nor does it mean the spot price must crash to max pain.
A more stable interpretation: first distinguish nominal value from cash flow, hedging flow from direction, then observe volatility after Friday. When watching the market, you can compare BTC/USDT perpetual funding rates and open interest on OKX to make your own judgment. DYOR, this does not constitute any buy or sell advice. After a recent rebound, POL has pulled back, reflecting that funds in the L2 sector are still selective about projects. The daily moving averages remain bullish, and the MACD is still in the golden cross zone, but the SuperTrend has not yet turned bullish, indicating that trend recovery requires further confirmation. Polygon's infrastructure, enterprise partnerships, and scaling plans remain long-term highlights, but the market is now more focused on real active users, fees, and application deployment rather than just the technical roadmap. The day's net outflow of funds also indicates that the market is still taking profits from the rebound. If subsequent ecosystem data strengthens, POL has the opportunity for revaluation; without new catalysts, short-term movement will likely remain mostly sideways. $POLATOM recently experienced a wave of recovery, followed by a period of consolidation and digestion. The moving averages still maintain a bullish alignment, and the MACD golden cross has not been broken, indicating that the short- to medium-term trend has not completely weakened; however, there was a net outflow of funds that day, showing the market remains cautious about the sustainability of the rebound. The core logic of Cosmos remains cross-chain infrastructure, IBC, and a modular ecosystem, but the established sector generally faces the issue of "technology exists, but funding is not sufficiently focused." Going forward, it is necessary to observe whether new application catalysts emerge in the ecosystem, especially on-chain activity and cross-chain usage data. Without incremental stories, ATOM is more likely to follow the overall market trend. $ATOM$AAVE
Yield rises to 5.10%, what impact will this have on on-chain lending?
An increase in traditional risk-free yields raises the opportunity cost of holding DeFi assets and may reduce some leverage demand. However, greater market volatility will increase lending and liquidation activities.
If AAVE deposits and active loans grow while bad debts remain low, it indicates the protocol can compete in a high interest rate environment.
If income growth mainly comes from concentrated liquidations and collateral quality simultaneously deteriorates, the value of such growth is limited. Risk-adjusted income is what truly matters.$BTC has been a roller coaster this week. It surged to 87,300 at the start of the week, hitting a new high since January this year, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion after eight months. Then what? Last night, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.11%, and the S&P Global PMI data exceeded expectations, causing yields to take off. Bitcoin dropped from 87,000 to 83,900, with $444 million long liquidations in 24 hours, a two-week high.
It’s false to say it’s not painful. But looking back, isn’t this just how the market normally behaves? Ups and downs are the norm.
First, let’s look at the news.
Positive signals came from the US-Iran talks, with Iran proposing to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump calling the talks "productive." The geopolitical risk premium was removed, oil prices fell first, and risk assets rose together. But Bitcoin at 87,000 couldn’t effectively break through this positive momentum, indicating marginal buyers are not in a hurry to chase the highs.
Now, looking at another angle. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke 5%, with high interest rates continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. Yet, the weekly performance of $BTC and $ETH still outperformed most traditional assets, and $BTC ETF weekly funds shifted from net outflow to neutral.
With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it’s normal for the market to oscillate and digest here. When Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets increases, so short-term pressure is inevitable. But from the capital side, institutions haven’t clearly fled — large on-chain transfers reached $2.7 billion in recent days, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net purchase of $1.6 billion over three days, and large institutions are not rushing to take profits.
News is news, trading is trading. Don’t mix the two.
Many people blindly rush in on US-Iran positive news and panic sell when yields spike, ending up hurt on both sides. The real trading logic is simple — buy low, sell high, but behind these four words lies great patience and discipline. If the opportunity hasn’t come, stay out and wait; if the trend is in hand, hold firmly; face pullbacks calmly. In my years in this market, those who truly make money are never the most frequent traders but the most patient ones.
My view hasn’t changed; I’m still bullish on $BTC, with a target of 150,000 for this rally. But being bullish doesn’t mean blindly heavy positions; position management and stop-loss are always the bottom line. The 84,000 to 85,000 range is where long-term holders’ chips are most concentrated. As long as this line holds, there’s still room ahead. If it breaks, reduce positions first and re-enter after stabilization.
Market ups and downs are normal; accept normal pullbacks and don’t let short-term volatility disrupt your rhythm.
Stay calm, follow simple logic, and patiently wait for time to realize profits.
⚠️ Personal opinion, not any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $ONE This market maker ran faster than a rabbit, leaving retail investors with nothing but their underwear. A few days ago, I saw the "perfect K-line" of ONE and MUBARAK, and I was bitter that I didn't dare to get in; now looking at the chart, I'm just numb: from 0.0065 crashing to 0.0019, a single day drop of -37.57%, gains over several days wiped out in one day, a typical pump and dump. The old greedy me who wanted to get rich quick would probably have been tricked into entering by the stepped rise, even if not chasing the top, I would have bottomed halfway up, but now I probably wouldn't even keep my underwear. Luckily, I was painfully cut by RLS and AKE recently, which scared me into being cautious. Being timid really saves lives. With red candles all over the screen, I only feel like a survivor after a disaster, not jealous at all. In the crypto world, you think you're eating meat, but actually, you are the meat. The market maker ran away without even bothering to fake it. I can't make money from this, nor will I join the altcoin meat grinder for fun. I'll keep holding BTC and ETH spot, close the software, and drink hot tea. Staying alive is the most important thing.
$ZEC $DOGE Tomorrow is the quarterly options settlement, with $BTC and $ETH options expiring at a scale of 17 billion combined, and BTC alone close to 15 billion.
How many people can pull the price back now? Is Jianguo calling the shots? BlackRock adding positions? The market has already weakened, and we can only watch how hard it crashes. Those opening short positions should raise their liquidation points to prevent sudden pump-and-dump.
The previous rally already squeezed out many shorts, and now the price is being pushed down from the high near 84,000, which definitely won't hold. Yesterday, 85,000 couldn't hold and there was a sharp drop to 83,500.
If this level continues to be worn down, 80,000 or even 78,000 will come into view. The support at 78,000 is strong now, but it can't withstand the hundred-billion orders crashing during settlement.
Moreover, after tomorrow's settlement, once the original hedging positions withdraw, volatility will definitely increase.
Key point: Don't mistake every sideways movement as a buildup; sometimes sideways without dropping means waiting for the final blow. Tomorrow we'll see how hard the drop will be.
#OptionsSettlement The Fear and Greed Index is at 71, yet the market is dropping — this divergence is the most noteworthy detail today. $APT has fallen 9.63% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 13.7M USDT, but the funding rate remains at +0.0077%, indicating that longs are still paying to hold positions, meaning leveraged long positions have not given up. Meanwhile, the price has fallen below MA5 (0.77008) and is pressed under MA20 (0.77364), with moving averages showing a bearish alignment. RSI at 46.3 is in a neutral to weak zone, not oversold, suggesting there is still room below; MACD histogram +0.00111 has turned positive but the price is not rising, a typical momentum divergence, making any rebound more likely a bull trap. The lower Bollinger Band at 0.723758 is the first support level in this move, with a 30-candle amplitude of 16.02%, so the risk of a wick is not low. In terms of liquidation structure, positive funding rate plus price drop means longs are being repeatedly harvested, and capital is shifting toward the shorts. Also watch: $TRUMP and $OP, whose funding rates are negative and neutral respectively, showing slightly better relative strength than APT but also struggling below moving averages.
Directionally, I am bearish. Entry reference is 0.7704–0.7760 (the resistance zone of MA5 and MA20), take profit 1 at 0.7400 (secondary support near the lower middle Bollinger Band), take profit 2 at 0.7240 (lower Bollinger Band, near previous low wick area), stop loss at 0.7930 (break above MA20 and stand above the Bollinger middle band, invalidating the bearish logic). Market Analysis:
After ETH's rapid drop yesterday, it is currently in a weak rebound phase. However, as long as spot funds continue to support, this round of decline can temporarily be defined as a leverage cleanup following the main uptrend, rather than a mid-term trend reversal. Nevertheless, the 1-hour MACD remains below the zero line with moderate rebound volume, so short-term recovery is not yet complete.
Key levels to watch now are 2663—2690—2725. 2663 is the first support, 2690 has already completed a support-resistance flip; if volume increases again and holds above 2690, the rebound could further target 2725. 2725 is the critical neckline resistance after this decline; only by firmly holding above 2725 can the short-term structure truly strengthen again, with subsequent targets at 2760 and 2806.
Conversely, if 2690—2725 continues to face pressure and forms a 1-hour stagnation, especially if it breaks below 2663 again, beware of a second round of leverage cleanup. The downside first targets 2649, with core defense around 2608. If 2608 shows a clear stop in decline on 15-minute/1-hour charts, followed by a volume contraction and then volume expansion to recover, it can be considered a position to re-enter some long orders; but if 2608 is effectively broken and the rebound fails to recover, this adjustment will no longer be a simple leverage washout, and the judgment on the continuation of the main uptrend must be downgraded.
Summary: Hold 2663 to target 2690→2725; firmly hold 2725 for bulls to regain control. If 2725 fails to break and falls below 2663, prepare for a second rapid cleanup, focusing on waiting for support at 2608. The mid-term remains temporarily bullish, but before reclaiming 2725, treat this only as a weak rebound and avoid rushing to go long.
$ETH 🔥Gold's trend here has completely nailed the reverse stubborn holder persona🤣
One moment it surged to 4698, hitting a new high, then suddenly crashed down to 4245, harshly shaking out those chasing the highs, before steadily pulling back to 4290.
It only rose slightly by 0.07% intraday, with a 24-hour low of 4275, firmly welding the 4200 level airtight.
The moving average just started to turn up but was bent down by the crash, with the price nailed dead in the 4200–4300 range.
Other major commodities either soared or plunged sharply, but gold is just consolidating sideways here.
From 4200 all the way up to 4698, the rise featured consecutive big bullish candles; the drop formed a deep V but still reclaimed key support.
Despite institutions repeatedly calling for 4650, it just holds steady in the 4200-4300 range, not giving easy chances to break out.
👉 How long do you think gold will keep grinding in this range? Will it break upward or crash downward next? Share your thoughts in the comments!
$XAU
⚠️Just a fun market recap, not investment advice#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ 📉 444 million long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the market just finished biting the shorts and then swallowed the longs
Last night the market sharply reversed, with $444 million long positions liquidated in a concentrated manner. BTC slid from 87,300 to below 84,000, with $383 million long positions liquidated within 12 hours, and about 132,000 people wiped out across the network. The largest single liquidation came from Binance ETH longs, valued at 10.04 million.
The rhythm is very clear: in the past two days, 600–800 million shorts were just squeezed out, and last night it was the turn of the long chasers. Short liquidations do not mean the trend has stabilized; adding leverage to chase highs at the top is essentially sending margin to the exchanges.
This round of double liquidation exposes an old problem — mistaking "short squeeze over" for "safe entry." The futures market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is people who survive to the next round.
Were you long or short last night?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 UK Banks Complete First Tokenized Deposit Interbank Transaction
On September 24, Lloyds, NatWest, and Barclays completed the world's first blockchain-based tokenized deposit interbank transaction, with banks like HSBC also testing peer-to-peer payments.
The real point of interest in this news is not just that "banks used blockchain," but that blockchain is beginning to enter real banking settlement scenarios.
Transmission logic: tokenized deposits between banks → increased demand for on-chain settlement → acceleration of traditional financial assets going on-chain → benefits to RWA/stablecoin infrastructure → related public chains and protocols attract funding attention.
In the short term, I will focus on three lines: RWA → stablecoins → underlying public chains.
However, there is a common pitfall here: banks adopting blockchain does not mean that a certain public chain token will immediately benefit. Banks may fully use permissioned chains, private networks, or dedicated infrastructure, so one should not chase public chains just because "banks are going on-chain."
Two transaction scenarios:
① News gains traction + RWA/stablecoin sectors simultaneously expand → indicates funds are trading financial infrastructure upgrades, so sector rotation can continue to be observed.
② Bank on-chain applications land, but related tokens do not rise or even fall with volume → indicates the market believes the positive news is already priced in, and chasing highs carries increased risk.
Personal judgment: this looks more like a medium- to long-term industry trend catalyst; short-term trading depends on which specific segment funds choose.
Therefore, I will first look at RWA and stablecoin trading volumes, then the strength of related public chains, and finally consider specific tokens.BTC:ETH :: ZEC:NEAR — how capital attraction points change
The crypto market has an interesting property: capital does not necessarily need new money to create a new leader. Sometimes it is enough for the existing capital to start moving from one asset to another.
In 2021, ETH took on this role for part of the Bitcoin capital.
$BTC had an extremely strong community and the narrative "BTC and nothing else." But some Bitcoiners started buying ETH.
At first, these were isolated cases, but when the same idea becomes common among enough participants, a new Schelling point arises — an asset to which capital can more easily coordinate its flow.
This is exactly the logic now being applied to $ZEC.
Bitcoin capital is huge compared to ZEC's market capitalization.
Therefore, even a small portion of BTC capital directed to ZEC as a "just in case" hedge can have a disproportionate impact on its price.
The reason for this shift is not just speculation. For some BTC holders, ZEC can be a bet on financial privacy and protection against future technological risks, including the quantum threat.
In this sense, the thesis looks like this:
BTC → the main store of value asset.
ZEC → a potential private and technological hedge for Bitcoin capital.
With $NEAR, the mechanism is similar, but the source of capital is different.
If ETH and SOL remain large blue-chip assets, part of the market may look for a new attraction point in the smart contracts segment.
NEAR claims this role as an alternative technological platform.
Therefore, the analogy BTC:ETH :: ZEC:NEAR is interesting not as a price forecast but as a model of capital redistribution.
In 2021, ETH became a new attraction point for part of BTC capital.
In the current cycle, the market may seek new attraction points for two different categories: Bitcoin capital through ZEC and smart-contract capital through NEAR.
The main question is whether these assets can form a strong enough narrative for capital flow to become massive.No vision, can't hold on, this wave of profit is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. Just finished lunch and checked the market, $VVV was still bottoming out, the pullback didn't break, and the buying pressure gradually strengthened. I didn't shout anything earth-shattering, just suggested that long positions could be considered, with defense near the cost, don't get carried away, don't heavily bet on direction. As a result, it slowly moved from 19.213 to 30.671, a return of +1192.31%, those on board should have woken up laughing.
Better to miss a limit-up than catch a flying knife and end up with a bloody hand.
Take profits on 70% first, protect the remaining 30% at cost. Let the profits run if it continues to rise, and don't let gains turn uncomfortable if it falls back. Lock in some profits first, leave the rest to the market, don't be greedy for the last bite.
The market specializes in disciplining all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal, I will notify immediately, patiently awaiting good news.
$BTC $ZEC Managing expectations for $FIL is especially important in trading. When I first entered the market, I had very high expectations, thinking I would make big money quickly, expecting every trade to be profitable, and expecting my account to double rapidly. Once the returns didn't meet my expectations, I became impatient, constantly changing strategies and frequently making trial-and-error attempts. Having too high expectations makes it easy to lose balance mentally and makes rational operation difficult. Gradually lowering expectations, no longer chasing quick riches, the goal becomes stable, modest growth, accepting that returns fluctuate, with profit cycles and quiet rest periods. When no longer obsessed with getting rich quickly, the mindset relaxes, and operations follow discipline more closely. Trading is a long journey of practice; slow means steady, and steady means lasting.$LINK Don't fantasize about replicating someone else's trading model. I used to study others' trading methods everywhere, copying their entry, take-profit, and stop-loss logic. Others could profit steadily with this strategy, but I kept losing when applying it myself. Later, I realized that every trader has different personality, capital size, and risk tolerance. A system suitable for others may not suit you. Some excel at short-term quick trades, others are better at long-term patient holding. There's no need to forcibly imitate others; you need to combine your own personality and slowly refine a trading system that belongs to you. There is no universal formula in trading; finding a method that fits your personality and sticking to it is the only way to possibly go far.30 trillion dollars. When I first saw this number for Tron, my initial reaction was to check my past on-chain USDT transfer records.
Simply put, Tron is currently the largest pipeline for stablecoin transfers. A daily transaction volume of 30 billion—what does that number mean? Many secondary exchanges don't even have that much spot volume in a day.
But here's a pitfall I fell into: a large transaction volume doesn't mean the coin price will rise. Back then, I got excited seeing such data and jumped in, only to realize the high volume was due to cheap transfers and many users, which is a completely different matter from whether $TRX itself is valuable.
What it earns is toll fees, not by becoming more expensive itself.
So now when I see such data, I treat it more as a sentiment reference. What really matters is how much of this money stays on-chain to play, and how much is just passing through.
What do you think about this wave of Tron—is the ecosystem truly growing, or is it purely used as a tool?
#美元稳定币或加速出海 $TRX $USDT The pressure from $LTC trading often spills over into daily life. In the early days of trading, market fluctuations affected every emotion; when holding positions, eating and sleeping were restless, constantly watching the market. When the market fell, I felt depressed; when it rose, excited. My emotions were completely controlled by account profits and losses, neglecting family and disrupting my entire life rhythm. Over time, this led to physical and mental exhaustion, and my trading performance worsened. Later, I adjusted my approach by limiting the time spent watching the market, leaving the screen at set times instead of monitoring fluctuations 24/7. I separated trading from life, treating trading as just one part of life, not the whole. With a stable mindset, my judgments became more objective. Good trading performance must be built on a foundation of healthy and stable living.Below is a Chinese rewrite with a style more focused on crypto news flash + data interpretation:
Writing
📊 On September 21, crypto ETF fund flows showed a clear recovery
Data shows:
🟠 $BTC: Net inflow of $937 million
🔵 $ETH: Net inflow of $270 million
🟣 $SOL: Net inflow of $26 million
What’s noteworthy about this data is not just the "inflows," but more importantly, the reallocation of funds across different risk levels.
BTC still bears the main role of core capital, reflecting the market’s demand for mainstream asset allocation; ETH’s inflows indicate growing institutional interest; although SOL’s scale is smaller, as a high Beta asset, its fund inflows often more readily reflect changes in market risk appetite.
In other words, this currently looks more like rotation within the crypto market rather than a full-scale withdrawal.
Key points to watch next:
➡️ Whether ETF net inflows can continue
➡️ Whether BTC can maintain strength and lead ETH to follow
➡️ Whether high Beta assets like SOL will continue to attract incremental funds
Fund flows + price structure + trading volume are more worth watching than just price changes alone.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETF #SOLRallyGainsSupport #BTCTreasuryFundingRise$BTC 84000. Dropped 3000 points from 87000.
Should you run? Let me tell you the simplest way to judge.
A pullback in a bull market: if it drops 3000 points, you think the sky is falling — then it turns around and rallies back to a new high.
A rebound in a bear market: if it rises 3000 points, you think the bull market has arrived — then it turns around and falls back to a new low.
Which one is it now? You decide.
Technically, I'll clearly mark the positions for you.
The first support is at 81300, which is the SMA 7-day moving average, also the lifeline for short-term bulls. As long as it doesn't effectively break below this level, the trend hasn't changed.
The second support is at 79100, the SMA 30-day moving average, a structural support. If it really falls to this level, it’s actually a buying opportunity — provided the big picture logic hasn’t changed.
No need to mention resistance levels, 87100 is the previous high. When volume breaks above this, then it’s time to test 90000.
The current state is very clear: after a big rise, a pullback is very healthy. It’s not a top signal.
And don’t forget, today there’s a big meeting between major players, a tug-of-war day. Before the news comes out, the market will be volatile. After the news, the direction will be clear.
I’m betting the news will be positive. If I’m wrong, I admit it; if I’m right — you’re nervously selling at 84000 now, but later it will rally back to 90000.
#BTC #84000 #pullback #technicalanalysis #transcender$BTC
After this surge, BTC has pulled back, just tracing out the two key zones above and below.
The shaded areas in the chart represent resistance and support levels:
Below: $80,000–$83,000, which had been suppressing the price before but has now turned into support after the breakout;
Above: $86,500–$90,000, the platform broken at the start of the year, now becoming a resistance zone again.
Currently, BTC pushed into the upper resistance zone but was pushed back near $84,000, indicating that selling pressure here remains significant. The lower support held, so this pullback is a normal confirmation after the breakout. There is still a chance to challenge the $86,500–$90,000 range again; however, if it falls below $80,000 again, it means this breakout was likely not valid, and the price will probably return to the consolidation range from a month ago.
Next, I will watch if the lower shaded area can hold as support. If it holds, I remain bullish; if not, I will lower my expectations for now. 📉 Right direction, wrong position size?
Last night, BTC was consolidating around 84500, and someone opened a 50x short. The logic was simple: continuous ETF inflows, but the price couldn't push higher; good news without a price increase indicates weak buying power, plus obvious resistance above and poor liquidity at midnight, so a short-term pullback seemed reasonable.
However, after entering the position, the price neither dropped nor rallied, just oscillated around the cost line. Finally, closed at 84613, losing 8.37%. The most ironic part is that after closing, it was still stuck in the same dead zone; the market didn't exert any strength, and just sideways movement exhausted the high-leverage players.
The direction was right, but the leverage was wrong. 50x is too tight a range; normal fluctuations can't be withstood. It's fine to be bearish, but don't express your view with high leverage. Logic is logic, leverage is leverage.
$BTC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits a 19-year high, with varying impacts across countries. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise. What is truly worth trading is not the "global simultaneous decline," but the divergence in the pressure patterns of different countries.
Transmission path: U.S. Treasury yields rise→ dollar assets are attractive→ global capital is repricing→ currencies, bonds, and stock markets in various countries respond differently.
**Japan:** If US Treasury yields continue to rise, Japan's long-term bond yields may also come under passive pressure; But a weaker yen will increase pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy, resulting in a dual constraint of "exchange rate + interest rates."
**Europe:** Europe needs to pay more attention to the contradiction between economic growth and inflation. If US Treasuries drive global long-term yields higher, European corporate financing costs and stock valuations will come under pressure.
**Emerging markets:** Usually more sensitive to the US dollar, with higher US Treasury yields + higher US dollar yields likely to cause currency depreciation, capital outflows, and external debt repayment pressures, with funds likely to exit high-risk markets first.
China: The transmission is more reflected in the RMB exchange rate, cross-border funds, and the China-US interest rate differential, rather than simply following US Treasury rate hikes in tandem; If domestic policies remain accommodative, the China-US interest rate gap may widen further.
Therefore, in the short term, one cannot only focus on U.S. Treasuries; one must look at which country's exchange rate is weakest, which market is seeing the fastest capital outflow, and which central bank is signaling policy changes.
Personal judgment: **The higher the US Treasury yield, the less likely global markets will "rise and fall," but rather enter divergence trading. **A strong US dollar → prioritize emerging markets; A weak yen → watch JapanBTC crashed sharply late at night, losing the 87,000 high ground, and 130,000 leveraged traders were liquidated.
The market changed suddenly in the early morning. Bitcoin dropped directly from 87,283 to a low of 83,535, a 24-hour decline of 3.2%, now weakly consolidating around 83,800.
In the past day, the entire network liquidated $550 million, with longs accounting for over 70%, about $415 million evaporated instantly, and 130,000 traders were forcibly closed out.
The chain of the stampede is very clear:
Once the 85,000 defense line was broken, quantitative stop-loss orders flooded out;
Long liquidations triggered a chain of selling pressure, causing the market to lose control in a short time;
ETH fell below 2,650, and altcoins followed suit;
Buy orders instantly vanished, and any rebound was swallowed by liquidation selling pressure;
Sentiment turned sharply from greed to panic, and spot markets couldn’t hold at all.
This is not a healthy pullback, but a systemic collapse after layers of high leverage stacking. Macro hedging combined with contract dominance makes the rise slow and the fall like an avalanche.
#BTC rallies then falls back, has market rotation begun? $ZEC 1-hour underwater golden cross (below the zero line)
DIF -15.26, DEA -14.76, both lines are below the zero line, indicating a golden cross during a downtrend rebound, not a trend reversal golden cross.
This kind of slow and fast lines sticking closely together, slowly merging golden cross often appears as a false golden cross in a choppy market:
It looks like it’s about to cross, but a bearish candle immediately causes a death cross again, with the indicator repeatedly entangling back and forth, commonly called the "weaving signal."
Two layers of filtering conditions must be met simultaneously for it to be considered a valid golden cross; missing one easily leads to pitfalls.
1. Close confirmation: Wait for this 1-hour candlestick to close, with DIF truly standing above DEA, and the green bars turning red; an intraday pre-golden cross does not count. It can be reversed anytime during the session.
2. Price validation: After the golden cross appears, the price must hold above 1536 (1-hour MA20 resistance), with volume absorbing the previous shooting star upper shadow; if it’s only an indicator golden cross but the price can’t push through, it’s a bull trap.
Cycle contradictions still exist
✅1-hour: Potential underwater golden cross, indicating short-term downward momentum is slowing, with rebound power
❌4-hour: MACD death cross, green bars present, the large wave is in a correction phase
👉Conclusion: Even if the 1-hour officially forms a golden cross, it only qualifies as a rebound repair, not a new major uptrend; heavy selling pressure exists at 1536 and 1540 above.
- Trading logic: Bet on the 1-hour close forming a golden cross, trade short-term rebound
- Strict stop loss: 1513, exit immediately if broken, do not hold on
- Take profit: 1534~1536, reduce position first when reaching this zone, avoid holding long-term
- Position size: very small, strictly no heavy positions
Intraday "about to golden cross" is only an expectation; must wait for 1-hour candlestick close confirmation; underwater golden cross space is limited, it’s a rebound, not a reversal.$XRP spot ETF had a net inflow of about $18.04M on September 23, with Bitwise contributing about $11.54M and Franklin about $6.50M. However, despite the ETF inflows, the token price is pulling back. It seems that although institutional funds for XRP are still present, short-term selling pressure is greater. The inflows may be supporting the bottom but have not changed the rhythm of profit-taking at high levels. In these high-beta assets, ETF AUM growth and price pullbacks often occur simultaneously, so short-term risks should not be underestimated #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
Bitcoin rose from 58,000 in June this year to 87,000 in just three months, and a batch of altcoins also started to surge excessively, with $UNI and $ZEC as examples.
When prices rise, people easily get carried away, conveniently forgetting the most critical question—when to sell?
Some say UNI is the second ZEC, even eyeing above 45. But there is only one ZEC in the market. Tens of times gains and continuous rises are themselves survivor bias. Many coins that surged first end up moving sideways for a long time or even turning bearish.
2021 is a live case study. From February to May, Bitcoin rose from 30,000 to 64,000, while AAVE peaked early, moving from 580 to 660 at most.
Regarding a round of altcoin surges, I tend to first withdraw part of the principal and convert it into mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. If altcoins continue to rise, your position remains; if the market suddenly turns, your principal and some profits are already secured.
There is only one ZEC, UNI is not ZEC.
So my plan is very simple:
After altcoins surge too much, gradually withdraw the principal and convert it into BTC and ETH;
Keep the remaining position until the late stage of the bull market, don’t stubbornly hold on to a specific price;
All altcoins can follow this approach.
What is the real goal of this bull market?
To actually realize the profits.
In the bear market, you vow to secure profits, but once the bull market rises, you forget it all and end up repeating the old mistakes.