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The previous level theory has already been organized and published. Today's segment is all new insights; the more I sort out the logic, the clearer it becomes.
Today's round of operations, although agonizing, had the benefit of exposing all the long-hidden problems within the system.
Looking back at today's 1-second intraday chart, the root cause of the problem becomes clear:
At the very beginning, the order was placed incorrectly. After the mistake occurred, instead of stopping to calmly review and wait for a new qualified opportunity, I rushed into the market, repeatedly bottom-fishing. In the morning, I first opened a long position and got liquidated, then consecutively bottom-fished twice more. When the market briefly dropped and slightly rebounded, I immediately entered without waiting for the trend to fully stabilize or form a consolidation structure.
When the market returned close to the original price, I entered again and ultimately suffered the full brunt of a downward move, which was very painful.
The core issues are twofold:
1. Confused long-short logic: The trend judgment was unclear. During the downtrend cycle, I still habitually thought about bottom-fishing and going long, without switching to a short-selling mindset.
2. Loss of control over trading rhythm: After making a mistake, I did not pause but hurried to recover losses, continuously buying and selling back and forth, abandoning patience and forcibly seeking opportunities.
New trading discipline: Once a position is wrong and incurs a loss, immediately stop opening new positions, pause to review the mistake, patiently wait for the market to form a complete structure, confirm level resonance signals, and then consider taking action. Do not repeatedly enter near the same price to avoid stepping into consecutive traps and suffering the full downward move.This drop to 84K has hit the truly critical level.
Now, if I were to monitor the live market, I wouldn't guess "whether it will rise or fall tonight," but rather watch how the price unfolds.
BTC has three scenarios ahead:
① Hold at 84K → reclaim 85K
This is the most important recovery signal to watch.
If volume expands simultaneously, then look towards 86K and 87K.
② Repeatedly test 84K → support appears at 82K-83K
This indicates the market is still digesting previous profits, but it doesn't mean the trend is ending immediately.
③ Continuously lose 84K → rebound can't even reclaim 85K
This pattern calls for clear caution, indicating selling pressure remains above.
Now looking at ETH and XRP:
Who resists the fall when BTC drops,
Who moves first when BTC rebounds.
These two details are more valuable than just looking at a single candlestick.
The biggest fear in live trading isn't making one wrong call.
It's having no plan and following emotions whenever the price moves. After BTC dropped to 84K, I am actually not in a hurry to judge the bottom now.
In live trading, the most valuable is often the first rebound.
If BTC rebounds from around 84K next, I will watch three moves:
First, watch 85K.
Can it recover with volume?
Second, watch 86K.
When it reaches here, should we continue to chase, or will selling pressure appear immediately?
Third, watch 87K.
If the volume significantly increases when retesting 87K, then it is necessary to reconsider the breakout.
At the same time, keep an eye on ETH and XRP:
BTC rebounds + ETH retakes 2,700
BTC rebounds + XRP retakes 1.50
If these two signals appear simultaneously, it indicates that market risk appetite is recovering.
But if BTC rebounds to around 85K and then gets hammered down, and ETH and XRP cannot keep up, then it is not a strong rebound but more like a technical pullback during a downtrend.
So tonight I will not predict where the bottom is.
I will wait for the market to tell me whether there is anyone to catch at 84K.9月22日，美方与伊朗代表在纽约附近进行了近 3小时 的沟通，卡塔尔参与传递信息。双方都表示会谈“不错”，但目前来看，真正具有实质意义的协议仍然没有落地。 🇮🇷 伊朗方面关注的核心条件包括： • 部分放松海上限制 • 处理被冻结资金问题 • 降低地区冲突压力 • 在这些问题取得进展后，再讨论进一步开放霍尔木兹海峡 🇺🇸 截至目前，美国方面尚未对这些条件作出明显的实质性回应。 📉 市场却已经开始交易“局势缓和”的预期。 消息传出后，原油价格快速回落，市场开始押注能源压力可能下降，通胀预期也可能得到缓解。与此同时，$BTC 从约 $80K 附近反弹至 $85K 左右，风险资产情绪同步改善。 ⚠️ 但需要注意的是：美伊领导人目前还没有直接会面，霍尔木兹海峡问题也尚未真正解决。只要航运和能源供应风险没有完全消除，原油仍可能重新出现较大波动。 📊 我的市场解读： 这次会谈更像是重新把谈判桌摆了起来，而不是已经达成最终协议。 短期来看，市场可能继续在“局势缓和”和“风险升级”两种预期之间反复切换，因此波动率仍可能维持高位。 ₿ 至于 $BTC 后续能否继续走强，市场接下来值得重点观察两When prices rise, everyone studies when BTC will break new highs and when the altcoin season will fully start.
When prices fall, positions suddenly become "long-term investments," stop losses suddenly become "value beliefs," and being stuck suddenly is called "growing together with the project."
Before the market falls, everyone is a trend trader; once it falls, all accounts are ten-year shareholders.
So the market never lacks analysis; what it lacks is thinking clearly before placing orders: what if you're wrong.
After all, you can talk about long-termism, but contracts have no long-term shareholders.
$BTC #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #交易纪律Let's smash it down again
Almost got out of the trap
If it can't pull up this time, I will hold this short position to the death
$ETH has finally been smashed down this round, the lowest has reached around 2633, and my 2640 short position has hope again.
Now it has rebounded to around 2660, but the 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing from above, the strong momentum after the 2806 high has been interrupted.
Next, I mainly watch 2680–2700
If this area can't be reclaimed, I will continue to hold the short position. If it breaks below 2630 again and the rebound can't hold, the retracement space will truly open, and around 2600 can be watched further.
The stop loss at 2800 is still set, and this time I don't plan to keep flipping positions back and forth.
$SNDK is also weakening simultaneously
After the 1908 high, it has fallen back to around 1824, and the short moving averages are all pressing down. If 1830 is lost again, the space left by the previous sharp rise is likely to be given back.
$AEON is relatively more resistant to decline
Currently around 0.062, with support near 0.058, but the range 0.0625–0.064 has not truly broken through yet. It is more of a consolidation repair now, and chasing in is not very cost-effective.
Now it depends on whether ETH can truly break through 2630. After enduring for so long, I just want to wait for a straightforward retracement next.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ People watching the live market now won’t rush to guess the direction.
Because it only took a few hours to drop from 87K to 84K.
This kind of movement is often not about watching the news, but about seeing how the funds react.
Right now, I’m focusing on 4 details:
① Whether there are repeated buy orders supporting at 84K
If it falls near 84K and always gets pulled back, it means someone is absorbing the sell-off.
If each rebound gets weaker, it means the buying power is retreating.
② Whether ETH is stronger than BTC
In a normal decline, ETH will fall along with BTC.
But if BTC falls and ETH’s decline starts to narrow or even rebounds first, it means funds haven’t exited but are rotating positions.
③ Whether XRP will continue to resist the drop
Recently, XRP has clearly been stronger than many mainstream coins.
If BTC pulls back and XRP can still maintain strength, market sentiment may not have completely cooled down.
④ Whether 85K can be reclaimed
87K is the previous high, 84K is the sentiment level.
And 85K, I think, is the most important level tonight.
If it can reclaim 85K, there’s still a chance to test 87K again.
If it stays below 85K, the market may continue to look for support around 82K-83K.
In live trading, the most important thing is not prediction.
It’s:
Watching who chases on the way up,
Watching who absorbs on the way down.
Because the real big money often comes out of the dip.$ONE A zombie chain has actually been hopping around for so long, and today it crashed as expected. Fortunately, not many brothers touched it.
Attitude remains same as few days ago: don't touch it! Touching it means becoming a bag holder:
1. Mainnet is shut down, so fundamentals are gone.
Moreover, chain was hacked by North Korean hackers for 100M in 2022, and in Aug this year, 23M was sold due to contract vulnerability. No sign of it coming back to life.
2. No whales taking over on-chain: A magical scene: The Fed raised interest rates last week, and institutions were still saying "maybe four to six more hikes are needed" to suppress inflation, yet the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high tonight, and $BTC kept pushing upward.
According to the old script, risk assets should shrink during a rate hike cycle. But with oil prices crashing and inflation expectations easing, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back from above 5%, and the market immediately switched to risk-on mode, with riskAfter Bitcoin dropped from 87K to 84K, the real question now isn't how much further it will fall.
Instead, it's whether it can recover the lost ground during the rebound.
I will divide the upcoming trend into three observations:
Rebound and retake 85K: indicates that support after the drop still holds.
Challenge 87K again: suggests the recent sharp drop might have just been a leverage cleanup.
Fail to even retake 85K during the rebound: short-term caution towards 82K-83K should continue.
Looking at ETH and XRP:
If BTC rebounds and ETH first recovers 2,700 while XRP retakes 1.50, it shows risk appetite is recovering.
If BTC rebounds but these two coins lag completely, caution is warranted.
A truly strong market isn't one that can't fall, but one that can quickly recover after falling.
Tonight, this is what to watch.This big drop in Bitcoin has directly revealed the market's most genuine side.
At 87K, everyone was discussing a breakout, but after falling to 84K, the topic suddenly shifted to "Is it going to keep falling?"
But I want to observe one detail instead:
When BTC falls, do ETH and XRP show an excessive drop?
If BTC continues to fluctuate around 84K while ETH and XRP start to stop falling, it indicates that panic might mainly be concentrated on BTC profit-taking.
If all three drop sharply with volume, then it’s not just a simple BTC correction, but a decline in overall risk appetite.
In the short term, I will watch:
BTC: 84K → 82K
ETH: 2,700 → 2,600
XRP: 1.50 → 1.45
No need to guess the bottom.
First, see where real support appears.
Because falling is not scary; the scariest thing is when no one supports every rebound.BCH surged 30% in one day, rising 50% for the week, hitting 358.
CME announced it will launch its futures on October 19.
Wait, I've seen this script before.
In the last round, BCH also rallied on news like "institutions are entering," and then? Nothing happened.
Right now, $BTC is still hovering around 84000, but BCH has already pumped 50% on its own.
Is the money genuinely bullish on BCH, or is it just an excuse to hype a short-term pump?
Grayscale is still applying to convert its trust to an ETF, which is a concrete move.
But the gap between futures going live and ETF approval is huge.
Short-term traders are most easily fooled by the word "bullish" at times like this.
For now, I'm watching to see if it can hold above 340.
Do you think this rally can last until October 19?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC $BCH A 98.7% win rate, with a net loss of 27,042 U.
Out of over three hundred trades, only four lost — sounds like the chosen one.
Reality: 311 wins, average profit of 663 per trade; 4 losses, average loss per trade 58,383.
This isn't skill, it's arithmetic. Without stop-loss, random walks can still achieve a 98.43% win rate (theoretical value differs from actual results by only 0.3 percentage points).
Where is the loss? Counter-trend replenishment. The median number of lost orders is 10 times the winning order, and the combined losses of the two major losses are −232986, exceeding all profits.
Counterfactually calculated: each transaction is limited to 2000, resulting in +116941.
I'm publicly sharing my quantitative test records, and I've failed more than succeeded. If you want to follow, please follow.
$ETH BTC dropped from 87K to 84K, and market sentiment is shifting even faster than the price.
But the easiest mistake to make right now is to immediately conclude the trend is over just because of one big bearish candle.
I'm currently focusing more on three signals:
① Whether 84K can be reclaimed
If it recovers quickly, it indicates there is support after the sell-off.
② Whether 82K-83K can hold
If there is obvious buying here, the short-term structure is not completely broken.
③ Whether ETH/XRP will also drop in sync
If BTC falls but ETH and XRP's declines start to narrow, it means funds have not fully withdrawn.
Conversely, if BTC rebounds but can't hold above 84K, and ETH and XRP continue to weaken, then be cautious of the market searching for lower support levels.
At 87K, we watch for a breakout; at 84K, we watch for support.
The real answer of the market often doesn't come from the highest point, but from what it tells you after the pullback.Fundamental Research Report $LPT / Livepeer (DePIN) $3.20
To put it simply: Livepeer ($LPT) has a composite score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Livepeer (token $LPT), in the DePIN sector. It focuses on decentralized video transcoding. Competitors include RNDR and AR. Traditional computing power rental giants like AWS and CoreWeave charge by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rents ranging from $12,000 to $25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, allowing suppliers to avoid centralized audits, turning idle GPUs into available supply. The average customer price is $50–$500/month, requiring settlement in USDC or fiat. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. The latest version was not found; there were 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
On the user side, MAU and DAU are undisclosed, 24h trading volume is $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; concentration of large addresses can overestimate real user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (allocated to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income is $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn is annualized with no burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. On the code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration can be checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating supply 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock in 2026-Q4 (adding +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback has no clear mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Livepeer $3.00B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. FDV: Livepeer $4.20B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Annual revenue: Livepeer $2.00M, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Livepeer undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Overall: evidence insufficient, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraging expectations, FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Tracking metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviations over 30% require reassessment.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitJust now it was still at 87K, now it has dropped below 84K.
This decline is not just a simple gradual fall. Data shows that after BTC broke below 84K, about $237 million long positions were liquidated in a short time.
What’s more noteworthy is that about $16 billion worth of BTC options expire this Friday, so short-term volatility may continue to increase.
Right now, I’m only watching three levels:
84K: Whether it can be reclaimed
82K: The next key support
87K: Strong resistance after rebound
Also watching ETH together:
If ETH can still hold around 2,700 when BTC breaks below 84K, it means the capital support hasn’t completely disappeared.
For XRP, watch if it can reclaim around 1.60.
So don’t be scared by a big bearish candle now, and don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Whether 84K can be reclaimed is more important than the earlier surge to 87K.
Whether this wave is just washing out leverage or the trend is really starting to weaken will become clearer in the next few hours.Bitcoin dropped directly from 87K to 84K. Those who were just shouting about a breakout are probably quiet now.
But I think the most important thing to watch now is not how much it has fallen.
It's whether there is buying support at 84K.
87K: Resistance on the rally
85K: Short-term strength/weakness boundary
84K: The key area currently being tested
82K-83K: The next observation zone
At the same time, watch three coins:
BTC: Can 84K hold steady?
ETH: Can it hold around 2,700?
XRP: Is there support near 1.50?
If BTC quickly recovers to 85K near 84K, and ETH and XRP also stop falling simultaneously, this looks more like a normal consolidation after a rise.
But if 84K continues to fail, and 85K cannot be reclaimed on a rebound, then we need to start guarding against further support testing around 82K-83K.
We were just discussing whether 87K could be broken, but now the market is starting to test 84K.
That's how the market works.
Don't focus on sentiment; watch how the price moves. $FIL has broken 1, the wall has turned into a floor
After grinding through the integer barrier for so long, today it finally stepped on it.
1. Change of control at the threshold: 1.045, 1.00 is the first to stabilize in sight. The next two days will reveal the outcome; if it holds, a new map lies ahead.
2. Correlation returns: On Tuesday, it moved along with the storage sector, SanDisk +6.8%, Micron +5%, Western Digital +3.7%, and FIL's 5.97% is finally not alone.Going long 📈
Now is the best position
Buy on dips
My 78 ETH long positions are still open
I won't exit even if profit retraces 10,000U
This wave is just a pullback after a breakout
I continue to treat it as a bear trap
—
$ETH fell from 2786 to around 2650
24-hour trading volume is still $18.6 billion
Up 11.3% over the past seven days
Volume hasn't disappeared
Just more intense high-level turnover
More importantly, whales have increased holdings by 15,000 ETH through Galaxy Digital
The average add-on price is $2751
Currently holding a total of 52,000 ETH
Average cost is $2161
Unrealized profit exceeds $31.1 million
Technically just completed a bullish flag breakout at 2661
2560 to 2565 is the bulls' defense line
If this holds, continue to watch 2775 to 2825
After breakout, 3000 to 3050 remains the target
—
$ZEC is currently trading around $1568
24-hour trading volume exceeds $2.4 billion
Market cap has reached $26.4 billion
Capital activity has not decreased at all
1650 is the immediate resistance
A volume breakout first targets 1800
Then up to 2000
I won't change the 2000 target
But intermediate consolidation and shakeout are inevitable
—
$SNDK today pulled back from 1896 to around 1830
This phase is more suitable for waiting for a pullback to go long
Institutions recently gave a buy rating
Target price directly at $2400
Around 1820 can observe support
Reclaiming 1900 is a signal for a second start
If it breaks below 1800, control positions first
—
The direction can be firm
If broken, admit the mistake
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $ETH — How will the dog whales cut next?
Short term (48 hours): Most likely to oscillate between 2,600-2,786. 2,724 is the short-term watershed — a volume breakout targets 2,786-2,800; if it can't break through, it will retest 2,633-2,600. If it falls below 2,633 (24h low), it may accelerate the retest to 2,550-2,544.
Medium term: ETH ETF inflows of 413.8 million over two days + CME open interest up 8% + BitMine increasing holdings by 12,500 ETH, with these three core drivers, ETH still has room to grow. If the weekly candle closes above the 100-week moving average, it could open the 3,300 to 3,400 USD range. But RSI near 71 + stochastic indicator over 90 + whales cashing out 52.07 million USD — a pullback could happen at any time.
The biggest risk: RSI6 at 13.21 extreme oversold rebound + SAR and SUPERTREND all pressing overhead + whales cashing out 52.07 million USD above 2,600. This rally is driven by short covering + ETF buying, not spot buying. Once the fuel for short covering runs out, real buying is needed to push it — if buying doesn't keep up, a pullback could happen at any time.
A heartfelt last word
ETH is at 2,659 today, with ETH ETF inflows of 413.8 million over two days, CME open interest up 8%, BitMine increasing holdings by 12,500 — a mountain of positive factors. But RSI6 at 13.21 extreme oversold rebound, SAR and SUPERTREND all pressing overhead, whales cashing out 52.07 million USD above 2,600 — all three risk signals are red. An analysis said it clearly: "Market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically is often a precursor signal for a short-term reversal." At 2,659, chasing highs is like giving the dog whales New Year's gifts. Control your hands, wait for confirmation of a breakout at 2,786 or a retest at 2,600 before acting. Remember, surviving long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!In the past couple of days, I saw the news that Binance invested 100 million USD in Circle, and I think there is a question more worth discussing than the amount.
Why are more and more platforms nowadays no longer obsessed with creating their own stablecoins, but instead choose to invest or cooperate?
I think the reason is simple.
The competition of stablecoins is no longer about "who issues the coin first."
It's about who can build a larger payment network, broader use cases, and more real capital flow.
So recently, when I look at a project, I pay less attention to just the price.
I focus more on:
• Whether on-chain transactions are growing;
• Whether stablecoin circulation is expanding;
• Whether capital is continuously flowing in;
• Whether the number of real users is increasing.
For these recent data, I usually check Ave.ai first.
Many times, the news is just the result.
The real changes have long happened on-chain.
What do you think will be the core of stablecoin competition in the future: issuance or ecosystem? BTC has started moving sideways, which is actually the chart I want to watch the most right now.
After BTC surged to 87K, it didn’t continue to rally crazily, and capital began to diverge:
BTC: high-level consolidation
ETH: starting to test around 2,800
XRP: still watching the key level at 1.60
At times like this, what’s really worth observing is who can keep strengthening while BTC is resting.
If BTC holds above 85K and consolidates, while ETH and XRP continue to outperform BTC, it indicates that capital might be searching for new momentum.
Conversely, if BTC drops and ETH and XRP immediately dive as well, it means the market is still solely supported by BTC.
So tonight, don’t just watch BTC’s rise and fall.
Watch who can make their own move when BTC is stagnant.
That’s the signal worth focusing on for the next phase.After Bitcoin surged to 87K, the real market change is that bulls and bears are starting to place new bets.
Previously, BTC rallied from around 75K to 87K, with a short-term gain exceeding 15%.
At this level, two scenarios are most likely:
Some start chasing longs,
Some begin to take profits.
So now, don’t just watch the price; watch how the market holds up after increased volatility.
BTC: Can it break through 87K a second time?
ETH: Can it hold above 2,800?
XRP: Can it continue to increase volume above 1.60?
If BTC quickly recovers above 86K after a pullback, and ETH and XRP strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that risk appetite is still present.
But if BTC spikes then falls back, and ETH and XRP slow down together, short-term caution is needed against concentrated profit-taking by bulls.
A truly strong market isn’t one that just keeps rising.
It’s one where, after a drop, there are still buyers willing to step in.
In the next few hours, I’ll be paying more attention to the "reaction after the pullback."Alright, Brother Maji is really in trouble this time. Just a couple of days ago, he was happily watching a $4 million floating profit, but this short-term pullback wiped out all the profits, and now he's down $100,000. His trading moves are fierce, but looking at the results, it's tough on him!
Looking at his current positions, I can only say that the gambler's mentality is a no-go. On the $BTC side, he wisely reduced his position to lock in profits: a 40x long position with a liquidation price at 47,000, currently still up $45,000. But then he turns around and goes all in on $ETH and $HYPE. He’s all-in with 25x leverage on 37,500 ETH, floating profit over $40,000; the most outrageous is HYPE, holding over 210,000 tokens at 10x leverage, average price 94, now floating a loss close to $200,000, liquidation price at 70.6—he’s really pushing the limits on the liquidation line.
When the overall market pulls back even a bit, the destructive power of high leverage fully shows. Maji’s high-frequency adding to long positions this round—is it extreme confidence in bottom-fishing, or desperation to recover losses in one shot? Anyway, if it were me, I wouldn’t even be able to sleep with that position size. After Bitcoin surged to 87K, it didn't immediately crash; there's a data point worth watching behind this.
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $999 million in a single day, and on September 22, there was still about $715 million flowing in. These large inflows over two consecutive days are more interesting than just looking at the candlesticks.
Now let's look at three major coins:
BTC: oscillating around 86K, 87K is a short-term key level
ETH: maintaining strength above 2,700
XRP: has been strengthening continuously and even broke through 1.60 at one point
A very clear change is happening in the market now:
BTC is responsible for attracting funds, ETH is starting to follow the rise, and XRP is beginning to capture sentiment.
If BTC holds steady, and ETH and XRP can continue to increase volume, it means funds haven't left the market but are looking for new directions to attack.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 85K, ETH loses 2,700, and XRP drops back near 1.50, this logic needs to be re-examined.
So what I most want to see next is not:
"Can BTC still rise?"
But rather:
After BTC stabilizes, who will become the next coin to take over the relay?After Bitcoin surged past 87K, what’s really worth watching might not be how much BTC can still rise, but where the funds are starting to flow.
Now, looking at BTC, ETH, and XRP together:
BTC: After breaking 87K, the key is whether 85K can hold
ETH: Whether it can stabilize again around 2,800
XRP: Whether it can break out with volume near 1.60
If BTC consolidates sideways but ETH and XRP continue to strengthen, this market pattern is actually worth noting — funds might be spreading from BTC to mainstream altcoins.
If BTC breaks out again with volume above 87K, and ETH and XRP rise in sync, market risk appetite could further heat up.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 85K and ETH and XRP weaken together, be cautious that this rally might enter a phase of consolidation and digestion.
Don’t just watch whether Bitcoin is rising.
What’s really worth observing next is:
BTC sets the direction, ETH shows the spread, XRP reflects the sentiment.
Which one are you paying more attention to now? No more moves tonight, Brent crude oil is targeting me, the lowest drop price is 96.75, which is also my stop-loss line. After hitting it, it rebounded all the way up $
$$
At 10:30 tonight, the Iranian president threatened not to yield to US military pressure. Along with the raised expectations of a second rate hike, I took a 50x Brent crude oil contract position, setting the stop-loss at $96.75. Before 10:50, the contract was up 12% profit.
At 10:52, Reuters reported: A senior Iranian official said Tehran is reviewing the US response to Iran's proposal to end hostilities. In indirect talks with the US on Tuesday, both sides discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade. The key priority is a long-term end to hostilities and lifting the US naval blockade. Brent crude experienced a sharp 15-minute plunge to $96.75.
Subsequently, Iran explained that the contact between the Iranian foreign minister and Trump's negotiation representative was unauthorized and not empowered to negotiate decisions related to the war's direction with the US. Brent crude then rose all the way to $98.35.
I really have no moves left. After hitting my stop-loss line, it rebounded all the way? How can it be so coincidental? Using my stop-loss line as a turning point???$ONE is bearish, with a high probability of dropping below 0.0020 within 72 hours. The public chain stopped producing blocks starting September 10, with the height stuck at 93624315 for about 13 days, confirmed by 3 independent nodes. After the chain stopped, the price actually took off, closing at 0.000632 on September 15 and reaching a high of 0.00607 on September 21, a roughly 9.6x increase in 6 days, with fundamentals at zero, leaving only sentiment and chips. The 24-hour perpetual contract fell from around 0.00565 to 0.00286, a drop of about 48%. Spot prices on various platforms range from about 0.0021 to 0.0030, with a price gap of about 45%, deposits and withdrawals are blocked, and there is no arbitrage to anchor the price. Perpetual contract open interest is about 4.2 million USD, with a rate of -0.025% paid by shorts; negative rates often lead to continued declines, not a short squeeze fuel. Returning to the pre-pump range of 0.0006-0.0013 is just a matter of time. Conditions for a bullish reversal: the public chain resumes block production and the price gap across platforms narrows to within 5%. The biggest abnormal market this week was fully revealed today: #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? Geopolitical risks eased, and the market should have celebrated, but BTC proactively broke down and declined. The three-hour US-Iran talks went more smoothly than expected, Trump directly described the conversation as "very good," risk sentiment sharply rebounded, and oil prices simultaneously fell below the 100 mark. Logically, with the biggest uncertainty suppressing global risk assets released, Bitcoin should have surged with the trend and continued its breakout rally. But the market was completely off the script. BTC fell all the way from the intraday high of 87,251, dipping to a low of 83,856, directly breaking the key support of 85,000. Yesterday, the market was still enthusiastically discussing breaking through 90,000 and challenging new highs; today, a pullback and shakeout began early. Even my small positions started showing floating losses, and the market felt extremely abnormal. Even stranger: there was no negative fundamentals, and funds kept flowing in. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.59 billion for three consecutive days. Money was clearly entering continuously to support the bottom, but the price couldn't hold up at the high level. This shows the problem isn't with off-exchange funds, but with selling pressure inside the market that can't be contained. Strong willingness to cash out at high levels: profit-taking positions at low levels and exiting, previously trapped positions breaking out and fleeing, short buying momentum exhausted. Multiple factors combined, concentrated selling pressure from above, and buying couldn't withstand the surging selling pressure. #BTC冲高 $87,000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion — simpleThree-hour talks?
It’s just like a blind date:
Qatar is the matchmaker,
Iran demands the bride price,
The US says, "Let me think it over." 😄
Conditions slammed on the table:
Lift the blockade, unfreeze funds, stop regional conflicts,
Only then will the Strait of Hormuz open.
US: Mm-hmm, next time for sure.
Not a single promise made.
The so-called "positive signal"
is just that neither side flipped the table.
A tough standoff, continuing the stalemate.
The market cheers first.
Oil prices plunge,
Inflation just catching a breather,
$BTC climbs from 80,000 to 85,000.
But no meeting with the president, the strait remains closed,
Oil prices could strike back anytime.
Trump is still focused on the midterm elections:
Iran is watching, and he’s stalling too.
Real deal?
Let’s talk after November. 😞
These three hours,
weren’t peace talks,
just handing over a list of conditions.
There are positives and negatives.
Don’t just watch the candlestick charts dance,
The big picture still depends on:
US Treasury yields + ETF fund flows.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Thinking that if altcoins didn't keep up, there wouldn't be a market, but actually, this round is more like an event repricing events, quietly rewriting the order of strength and weakness. Have you noticed that the mood for BTC and small-cap coins is completely different lately? From my own observations, the most obvious feeling is that BTC surged to around 87,000 and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion. Numbers at this level first change expectations, then shift positions. Many people's first reaction is, "Why aren't altcoins crazy yet?" But market trading often isn't a broad rally; rather, the certainty premium returns to BTC first, then it's about whether to allocate to ETH, and finally moves to high-volatility targets. Strategies continue to increase holdings and simultaneously increase holdings in Treasury, pricing not in a single buy but on the expectation of "whether there's a next deal." Data snapshot - BTC: surges to 87,000, total market cap returns to 3 trillion, first stop for sentiment recovery - ETH: relatively weak compared to BTC, but serves as a middle ground for risk appetite spread - Altcoins: Clear divergence, only narrative + capital in place can keep up - Sentiment: shifting from panic to probing, but not yet to full greed - Rhythm: event-driven rebound, not indiscriminate rally Momentum signals - Large market cap moves first, indicating funds are willing to take on directional risk but unwilling to take individual risks - Treasury buying continues to provide BTC with a narrative bottom, not necessarily a price bottom - Total market cap recovery is more important than single coin rally; it represents the overall risk budget recovering Risk signals - If BTC surgesIn this wave of Bitcoin, the biggest thing to be wary of is actually not the decline.
It surged from around 75K to 87K, rising more than 15% in a short time.
Now the market sentiment is clearly heating up again, but the more it is like this, the more you need to pay attention to one detail:
Whether there was volume expansion during the rise, and whether there was support during the pullback.
If it can hold steadily above 87K, the market space may further open up.
But if it quickly falls back below 85K after the surge, short-term funds are very likely to start taking profits.
So next, I won’t guess the top.
I only focus on one sentence:
Above 87K, who is still buying? US and Iran officials talked for three hours in New York.
Trump said "very good, constructive," and scheduled the next meeting.
The hot topic is sending positive signals, and oil prices have also eased somewhat.
But don't just listen to slogans — on the same day, he also made tough remarks at the UN General Assembly. Easing is expected, not a finalized agreement.
If the Strait of Hormuz really eases, risk appetite will heat up first; if talks break down, there will still be a short-term crash. Just surged past 87K, the most important thing to watch for BTC now isn’t "whether it can keep rising," but whether the 87K breakout can hold on the pullback.
On September 21, BTC once surged to $87,371, then retreated; on September 23, it closed around $84,495. From the low of about $74,995 on September 16 to 87K, the increase was nearly 16% in just one week.
Now I’m watching three levels:
87K: previous high resistance
85K: short-term bull-bear dividing line
82K–83K: key pullback zone for this rally
If BTC can quickly recover to 87K after pulling back near 85K, it means bulls haven’t clearly retreated despite the surge.
But if 85K breaks → and 83K can’t hold either, then be cautious that this 87K might just be a profit-taking spike after the rally.
What’s even more interesting is that the total crypto market cap recently climbed back above $3 trillion, and this rally has been accompanied by nearly $1 billion-level inflows into US spot BTC ETFs.
So don’t just focus on whether "87K is the top."
What’s truly worth observing is:
After BTC drops, is there still capital willing to buy in?
If yes, 87K might just be a resistance level;
If no, then it’s time to reassess the strength of this rally.Evening strategy realization second consecutive:
Short BTC at 85873, exit at 83990, securing 9.4k
We are not fortune-tellers predicting the market, only disciplined hunters executing trades.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC selling pressure is limited, but high leverage is a hidden risk!
First, aSOPR remains around 1.01, indicating limited on-chain profit-taking pressure. Compared to the breakout phase in August when aSOPR once rose to about 1.04, this round of rally has not brought a similar increase in profit-taking. Bitfinex believes the market currently does not need to digest significant selling pressure.
Second, Bitcoin contract open interest has rebounded above $61 billion. Once funds weaken, high leverage will amplify the pullback. The current funding rate is about 0.01%, in a neutral range, but market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically is often a leading signal for short-term trend reversals.
Third, approximately $250 million in short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, amplifying the short-term rally. Wintermute believes this rebound cannot be simply attributed to a short squeeze; the more critical reason is that the related negative factors had already been priced in by the market in advance. XPL faces significant expectations of token unlocks going forward. The market's most important concern is not the "unlock" itself, but whether the new tokens will ultimately enter the secondary market. If the project team or early holders show obvious sell-offs, short-term supply pressure may rapidly increase; But ≠ unlock is sold immediately, so this is more suitable for equal volume price confirmation, and blindly shorting just because of the unlock news is not recommended. $HYPE: Divergence Begins at High Levels HYPE is now close to the $100 threshold, with market volatility significantly amplified. Latest market data shows HYPE once broke through $97 and hit a new high, while open interest and derivatives trading activity remain high. My approach is: focus on watching around $96–98. If the rally fails to break out with increased volume, consider looking for a pullback structure. For example, in the $94–96 range, observe bearish opportunities; set stop-losses above recent highs to avoid being swept away by spikes at high levels. $VVV: The upward momentum is slowing After VVV's consecutive rises, there is already clear resistance at high levels on the daily chart, and the short-term acceleration phase may enter a consolidation phase. If trading volume cannot continue to expand and open interest keeps decreasing, be alert to weakening bullish momentum. However, the "decrease in open interest" itself does not directly prove that the project team or large funds are offloading shares; it should be confirmed by considering price, trading volume, and capital flow. In the broader market, BTC recently briefly broke above $86K before a pullback; Meanwhile, some such as HYPE, ZEC, VVV and othersAfter this surge, the market has finally started to cool down.
Big brother $BTC touched $87.27K intraday and is now back around $85.8K. It looks like some of the gains have been given back, but $85K remains an important short-term support level, while the $87K–$87.3K range is still a key area to break through.
$ETH is currently around $2.74K, still holding above $2.67K. As long as this breakout structure is not broken, attention can still be paid to the $2.78K–$2.83K resistance zone ahead.
So the key point is actually simple:
Has the structure been broken after the surge?
At present, BTC is still digesting the gains within the critical range, and ETH has not fallen back below the breakout level.
What we fear most now is not a pullback, but panic triggered by seeing a pullback.
Rises need space, and the market also needs to catch its breath.
Tonight, let's not guess the next candlestick yet; keep an eye on whether $85K and $2.67K can hold. 👀
The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The next bullish signal isn't another vertical candle.
It's higher lows.
If $BTC can keep printing higher lows after the recent breakout, the structure becomes much healthier.
Patience > FOMO.#AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks surge collectively
The leader has something to say
AMD reaching $1 trillion was not driven by its own force but by Meta's Muse putting the CPU back in the spotlight.
Each AI Agent runs in an independent cloud Secure VM, capable of executing browser and backend tasks, increasing CPU load. The market is pricing in this expectation in advance.
But note, demand is still at the expectation stage and has not turned into actual orders.The $API3 coin price has been relatively stable recently, making it a promising oracle project among altcoins. Many friends might still be unclear about what an oracle is, so let me explain: You can think of API3 as the price reporter for a fully automated DeFi pawnshop. You pawn 1 ETH and want to borrow USDC for other uses. The most important thing for the pawnshop is to always know: how much is your collateralized ETH worth now? Suppose ETH suddenly drops from $3,000 to $2,000, the pawnshop must immediately update the price to determine if your collateral is still sufficient; if the price update is too slow, incorrect, or tampered with, the pawnshop might not be able to react in time, and in the end, the pawnshop itself suffers a big loss. This is the function of an "oracle": to deliver real-world prices from off-chain into the on-chain automated pawnshop. Generally, oracles work like the pawnshop sending people to ask several second-hand dealers or intermediaries and then averaging the prices they report. What API3 aims to do is to get the "original source price": signed price quotes directly from exchanges or data providers, then delivered on-chain through Airnode. Simply put, API3 emphasizes: fewer middlemen in the transfer process and more traceable sources. Another narrative function of API3 is called OEV. When ETH crashes, whoever can update the pawnshop's price board to the new price fastest may trigger liquidation first and earn profits. Previously, such profits were often taken by external bots or gas-boosting front-runners. Finally about to break even
Only about thirty points away from my opening price of 2631
This long bearish candle really pulled me back from underwater
The bearish trend has finally emerged
Keep crashing it for me
So thrilling
But it just dipped to 2633
Chasing shorts at this level is easy to get caught at the bottom
I'm preparing to wait for a rebound before adding more
—
$ETH has been smashed from around 2788 down to about 2660
On the hourly chart, it has broken below multiple moving averages
Resistance now lies between 2680 and 2710 on the upside
As long as it can't reclaim 2700, the bearish structure isn't over
On the downside, first watch 2630 then 2600
Long position liquidations on the hourly chart are close to $60 million
This indicates high-leverage longs are fleeing en masse
But don't recklessly chase lows with 100x leverage
—
$ZEC held around 1560 even when the market tanked
Its seven-day gain is still close to 30%
Clearly much more resilient than ETH
Resistance is at 1650 above
Support at 1500 below is key
If 1500 holds, I won't consider it a top short candidate
This altcoin flipping to a sharp rally wouldn't be surprising
—
$OKB retraced to around 118
Short-term following the market adjustment
But the seven-day structure hasn't completely broken down
Holding near 117 still offers a chance to rebound
Only by reclaiming 120 can it challenge 125 again
If 117 breaks, wait for 112 to 115 to build a position
Let this trade get me back to break even first
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ I'm playing the bull demon, just opened the app and saw the market dropping
$ETH Ethereum 2675, nervously placed a long order
Stop loss was originally set at 2652, changed within a minute, stopped out in less than two minutes
Good thing 2652 had to break anyway, lost less
What happened to cause the drop? I only saw a notice that Iran doesn't accept opening yet, didn't look closely, gold also dropped
$BTC Bitcoin 83820, dropped more than 3000 points in less than half a day, damn harsh 📉 $BTC & $ETH Face Strong Short-Term Selling Pressure $BTC briefly pulled back toward $84,000, while $ETH also dipped toward $2,650, showing a clear increase in short-term selling pressure. More than $210M in long positions were reportedly liquidated within an hour, highlighting just how sharp this volatility has become. After a move this fast, short-term longs need to prioritize risk management. If the setup is invalidated, reducing exposure or honoring the stop-loss is preferable to holdin$ZEC 50x short position open, floating profit +126.56%. Entry at 1602.69, mark at 1562.12, trend oscillates downward, rebound is weak, bearish structure remains.
50x leverage is not for showing off, it is a risk-reward tool under strict position control. There was a pullback in between, but no plan was broken so no rash moves. Stop loss and trailing defense were set in advance, refusing to add positions based on emotions.
Unrealized profit is just numbers until realized. The trend offers opportunities, risk control saves lives. $BTC $ETH There's a detail more worth watching than "how much BTC has risen":
When the market moves, who is the first to buckle?
BTC now acts more like an anchor.
ETH shows whether funds continue to spread.
SOL indicates if the market still has risk appetite.
So recently, I watch these three coins together:
BTC not breaking key support,
ETH holding its strong structure,
SOL seeing if funds come back after a pullback.
The truly interesting market moves often aren't all three coins rising together.
Instead:
BTC moves sideways,
ETH starts to strengthen,
SOL suddenly accelerates.
This is the signal that funds are beginning to flow into high beta assets.
Conversely, if BTC falls back and ETH and SOL both turn down, it means the so-called "rotation" might just be short-term sentiment.
Don't just look at who has risen the most.
Look at who is still willing to buy after a pullback. BCH Bullish Logic
1. Token Supply: Total supply of 21 million, no pre-mining, no team unlock dumps; fork inherits a large amount of dormant chips from lost BTC private keys, some coins permanently locked and not circulating
2. Institutional Catalysts: MFI listed company financial reports hold heavy positions, with cash available to continue increasing holdings; Grayscale advancing BCH spot ETF conversion; CME Group launches compliant BCH futures, providing institutions with a compliant trading channel
3. Chip and Market Position: Large number of trapped holders settled at low levels, strong support on declines; long-term whales continuously withdraw coins to self-custody; contracts often show deep negative funding rates, indicating potential short squeeze scenarios; spot market has shown futures-spot premium, representing real spot buying interest
4. Technical Foundation: SHA-256 cryptography is mature; large blocks with very low fees; multiple clients running in parallel, preventing control by a single team; CashTokens support token issuance, stablecoins, simple scripts, network is stable
5. Narrative: Bitcoin’s original peer-to-peer cash narrative; bull market capital overflow, market will treat it as an undervalued fork to explore
1) First Target (Partial Positive Realization): $800–$1200
CME futures running normally, Grayscale ETF approval passed, initial institutional capital inflow, overall bull market. Wave selling pressure still exists, with multiple significant pullbacks during the rise
2) Second Target (Full Positive Realization): $1500–$2100
ETF continuous net capital inflow, MFI continuous accumulation, large capital overflow from BTC to BCH, short squeeze rally eruptsTrump and Xi meet on Thursday, but the big question isn’t simply whether they extend the US-China trade truce. It’s how long they extend it for. USTR Jamieson Greer said Washington could support an extension of around three to six months, although nothing has been agreed yet. That leaves room for surprise. With gold around $4,350, the dollar supported by a hawkish Fed and US equities sensitive to AI and trade headlines, even a small The market dropped 3%, but these three small coins barely fell?
#FederalReserveOfficialsSpeakIntensively, how much longer will the rate hikes continue? #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
BTC dropped 2.66%, ETH dropped 3.14%, but these three small coins actually held up.
$HYPE around 93.75, only down 1.18%, Hyperliquid decentralized exchange, 97% of protocol revenue used for buybacks. The market dropped 3% but it only fell 1%, the most resilient among small coins, 90 is the critical support level; holding it means real income backing.
$RE around 0.452, only down 1.18%, DeFi insurance small RWA, 71 million market cap, daily volume 5 million. The market dropped 3% but it only fell 1%, the smallest cap but most resistant, holding 0.45 is still okay.
$BICO around 0.0214, down 4.42%, Biconomy Token, focused on account abstraction. The market dropped 3% but it fell 4%, weaker than the market, the sector is not bad but lacks funding support, completely sidelined watching the show.
HYPE 93 is resistant, RE 0.45 is resistant, BICO 0.021 is weaker than the market, clear differentiation among small coins. Didn’t make much judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn’t expect it to really show respect. Just finished lunch and checked the market, $ONE had strong sell orders, and ONE had low trading volume, so I casually signaled a bearish view.
Opened a short near 0.0039453, when the screen was full of green, many panicked and fled. The price slid to 0.0028183, short position +286.08%, timing was spot on.
Took the big profit first, closed 80%, kept the remaining 20% at cost price as protection, so if it rebounds, the profit won’t suffer.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. The premise of compound interest is survival; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero.
Now is not the time to rush, wait for the new structure to emerge, opportunities remain, don’t be anxious.
$DOGE $ADA