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Foreign capital makes a big move to bottom-fish domestic technology! $35 billion ready to deploy, is the VC winter completely over?
After three full years of a cold fundraising environment in the domestic venture capital market, recent major capital movements have emerged, with a large amount of overseas US dollar capital refocusing on the Chinese technology sector.
Relevant data shows that at least 60 brand-new US dollar funds have simultaneously started fundraising, planning to raise a total of $35 billion, among which 40 are venture capital funds focused on startups. Established industry players like IDG, Matrix Partners China, and Morningside Ventures are promoting new fund launches, while ZhenFund and Qiming Venture Partners have already completed fundraising ahead of others.
The core driver behind this capital shift is the consecutive impressive achievements in the domestic AI industry. Zhipu and MiniMax have successfully entered the capital market, DeepSeek, Dark Side of the Moon, and humanoid robot sectors continue to break through, and overseas capital is beginning to see investing in Chinese AI as an important way to diversify risks from US stocks. The cost advantage of local models is the key highlight most valued by foreign capital.
However, this fundraising boom cannot be considered a full industry recovery, but rather a selective rebound after a trough. Comparing the data reveals the gap: in 2022, the total fundraising amount of related US dollar funds in China reached $150 billion, but by 2025 it has shrunk directly to $13.6 billion, with the number of funds dropping sharply from over a thousand to less than a hundred, showing a huge market size disparity.
Capital-side differentiation is also very obvious. Large US institutions remain cautious due to technology policy restrictions, while European and Middle Eastern capital show stronger willingness to act. It is now a buyer’s market, with overseas investors’ influence greatly increased; they not only compete for co-investment rights but also require fund managers to increase their own capital commitments. Massive funds are flocking to high-quality AI projects, and competition for premium targets will only intensify.
Do you think this wave of US dollar capital entering the market can drive the domestic primary market out of its long-term slump? SpaceX reports earnings on Aug. 4. Two days later, up to 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale.
For comparison, the IPO floated only about 629 million shares.
The market isn't asking whether SpaceX is a great company. It's asking whether the current valuation already reflects too much future success.#EarningsWeekAhead A $3.5 billion AI equity deal was finalized late at night but urgently withdrawn early the next morning, revealing a major market signal behind the big players' choices.
Anthropic, a top-tier AI sector holding, once had a massive equity transfer, and the capital operation strategy behind it is worth everyone's attention.
At Leopold's most financially pressured moment, a deal was reached to sell $3.5 billion worth of Anthropic equity, with Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital forming the buying side to take over. All transaction details were finalized late at night. But just one night later, this blockbuster deal was directly canceled.
He chose not to painfully sell scarce primary market AI equity but instead opted to liquidate most of his publicly traded shares to raise funds to repay leveraged debt.
In subsequent letters to investors, he plainly explained the logic: he would rather sacrifice the more volatile secondary market positions than let go of high-quality, unlisted private equity like Anthropic, prioritizing reducing fund leverage pressure and preserving long-term core assets.
This also reflects the current institutional consensus: the long-term value of equity in leading unlisted AI companies is far higher in the eyes of capital than publicly traded stocks that can be liquidated at any time.
Do you think primary AI equity will continue to trade at a premium going forward? The real bonus for OKB in 2026 is not RWA, but Exchange OS: Deploying a market = first locking a batch of $OKB!
The new demand layer added in 2026 — also a place where many old OGs haven't caught up yet.
On 2026/5/26, OKX officially announced Exchange OS: turning OKX's matching, margin, clearing, settlement, and risk control into a public protocol layer on X Layer; anyone, institutions, or project teams can build spot / perpetual / outcome prediction markets on it.
A key sentence hidden in the whitepaper:
Before deploying a trading venue / listing a market, the deployer must first lock OKB in the X Layer staking contract!
This step is much more significant than "Gas burning":
Gas consumption is burned per small transaction, total amount controllable, with little intraday fluctuation
Staking locks tokens according to market scale — if you build a perpetual market with a million-level TVL, you must first lock a batch of OKB as an admission collateral, which is not burned but long-term removed from circulation
The first public test is the 2026 World Cup outcome prediction market (simulation), which has already run through the whole process of "building market → locking OKB → sharing unified account/margin"
Adding another layer of compliance buff (this part is community/secondary summary, not a hard fact):
In 2026/3, OKX and ICE, the parent company of NYSE, established a joint venture aiming to open tokenized US stock/NYSE channels
In 2026/7, the EU MiCA transition period ends, and OKX is one of the few platforms holding all three qualifications: MiCA + payment institution + MiFID II, with competitors exiting and European traffic flowing to OKX! $OKB Microsoft FY2026 Q4 revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year, net profit $35.8 billion, up 31% year-over-year. Strong performance can drive valuation repricing, but the platform's claim of "market value increasing nearly $450 billion in one day" does not mean an equivalent cash inflow to the company.
Market value = latest stock price × total shares outstanding. After marginal trades push up the price, all shares are revalued at the new price. So when seeing a "market value surge," the key is not to imagine a mountain of cash, but to understand that the market is willing to price future profits at a higher level. For knowledge sharing only, not investment advice. #折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 $XMSFT I studied the trends of 100 skyrocketing coins and found a common point
Today this pattern proved true again
Those that surged the most recently are now falling the hardest
PEANUT dropped 14.9%
BTW dropped 13.1%
WIF also dropped 4.8%
And those that rose are either small-cap meme coins or have real narratives
M rose 66.7%, META rose 50%
Then guess what
Looking at the international market, it gets even more interesting
Korean stock KOSPI surged 14% intraday, marking the largest single-day gain in history
The yen intervention battle escalates, the US side is preparing to intervene
Trump’s camp said they lost confidence in Iran again, brewing another strike
Stocks are partying, exchange rates are fighting, geopolitics are heating up
What about crypto?
BTC 62924, down 0.05%, steady as ever
This is the common point I discovered: the wild swings of meme coins are just noise; the real main trend is always the rhythm of BTC itself
Every pulse of altcoins is riding on the main trend’s sentiment
When sentiment is good, they fly high; when it fades, they fall fast
So my judgment is: don’t chase the top gainers or losers today, chasing means catching the falling knife. The 14% KOSPI rally is an extreme event, likely to pay back later. Honestly focus on BTC and similar directions
There are a few other things worth noting today, let’s talk about them:
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅
A 14% single-day rise is not normal growth, it’s an extreme rebound. Such a level of bounce often overdraws gains for the following days, chasing it is very risky. In crypto, short-term sentiment might be lifted but sustainability is doubtful; I’ll watch but not chase
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
When the currency war kicks off, global risk assets tremble. Yen intervention will impact carry trades; historically, every yen move causes crypto to drop first then stabilize. At times like this, I lighten my positions and wait for exchange rates to calm down before watching
#
When geopolitical news breaks, oil prices move first, risk assets fall first. But past experience tells me BTC is becoming less sensitive to geopolitical conflicts; a real drop is actually an opportunity. After emotional venting, what should be bought still must be bought. I’ll pick up bargains in panic
$BTC $SOL #涨跌幅 #山寨There is a set of data you might not believe, but it's true
Last night during earnings season, these giants all moved contrary to common sense
Amazon's guidance missed expectations, yet its stock price rose 9%
Microsoft's market value increased by nearly 450 billion in one day, setting a record in the US stock market
Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, but its after-hours stock price fell sharply
I stared at these headlines three times
And then guess what
This kind of "good news fully priced in, bad news reverses" movement in the US stock market directly transmitted to crypto today
BTC 62924, almost unchanged
ETH 1852, down 0.75%
SOL 72.4, down 0.93%
BTC is steady, altcoins slightly corrected
Funds are not panicking and fleeing, just watching
This expectation gap logic applies the same in crypto
Apple fell despite beating expectations because the price had already priced it in
Amazon rose despite missing expectations because everyone expected worse
The market trades not on facts, but on expectation gaps
Now US stock pre-market futures fluctuate little, crypto follows steady
The real direction depends on the Fed's September rate hike decision
So my judgment is: the expectation gap during earnings season tells us not to bet on direction before news lands. Beats might fall, misses might rise; rather than guessing, wait for the market to choose
Next, a quick look at recent hot topics, just a few words:
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
Rising 9% despite missing expectations shows the market expected worse, actual data is a surprise. This expectation gap logic is the same in crypto; bad news landing without a drop but a rise often signals a phase bottom, don't be fooled by surface news
#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调
A one-day increase equal to a unicorn's market cap, AI narrative is powering tech stocks strongly. Microsoft’s scale adding 450 billion in one day shows funds are concentrating on the most certain giants, risk appetite is warming, good for risk assets
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
Falling despite beating expectations, typical good news fully priced in. Price already digested the good news in advance, landing is a sell point. This pattern is seen daily in crypto; remember: buy before expectations, sell after landing, don’t trade against the news
$BTC $ETH #财报季 #美股That midnight flash crash probably scared a lot of crypto folks. Bitcoin suddenly dropped sharply to just above 62200, and Ethereum also plunged directly to around 1820.
Why the sudden crash? Simply put, it was panic.
In the early morning hours, the tension between the US and Iran was very high, instantly triggering maximum risk-off sentiment in the market. At the same critical moment, a huge bombshell popped up in the crypto space — rumors that MicroStrategy was going to sell $5 billion worth of Bitcoin.
One was the threat of war, the other was news of a whale dumping coins. Two swords hanging overhead, the market was crushed to the ground. Many traders definitely sold at a loss at the lowest points. Looking at that big bearish candle, many thought this wave might be unbearable.
But what happened? After a night's sleep, daylight came and the situation eased.
First, on the macro side. Trump posted a long message late at night, besides boasting about having "the strongest military power since World War II," the key point was — he confirmed receiving requests from Iran and Middle Eastern countries to temporarily hold off attacks.
Moreover, both sides are currently discussing a framework agreement that mentions the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear threat issues.
In short, although the top-level talks are still ongoing, at this critical moment, no one really wants to start fighting immediately; it's like hitting a "pause button."
Although those familiar with the crypto circle know the US-Iran situation well — previous agreements were signed and then broken, with back-and-forth tensions more than once — at least for now, this geopolitical stone has been slightly moved.
As long as there’s no war at this moment, oil prices won’t skyrocket from war panic, and inflation expectations can ease a bit, which is at least good for overall risk assets.
Next, the "dumping bomb" from MicroStrategy was personally defused by the company’s CEO.
Michael Saylor himself came out to respond, immediately slapping down the rumors: this is not new news at all, just old news being recycled!
Saylor clearly stated that the so-called selling authorization was announced as part of the company’s capital management framework back on June 29.
He emphasized three points: first, the authorization only "permits" sales, it does not require any actual Bitcoin sales; second, MicroStrategy has not announced any new selling authorization recently; third, not only are they not selling, but the company expects to remain a net buyer of Bitcoin in the long term!
Listen to that — what a true hardcore bull! Not only no plans to sell, but planning to keep buying!
Once these two pieces of news landed, the market immediately launched a counterattack this morning. BTC quickly recovered from the 62200 dip and surged above 63300; SOL rose from 70 to 73. ETH also bounced from 1820 to over 1870.
This "midnight dump, morning recovery" drama was a lesson for all crypto traders.
That kind of inexplicable panic dump at midnight was most likely caused by false information or overinterpretation disrupting the rhythm. Many panicked and sold at the lowest points. But after a night's sleep, prices all bounced back, leaving them cut at the bottom.
Just like with MicroStrategy, waiting a few hours for the big boss to speak made the truth clear.
Now on the macro front, although the US-Iran issue can’t be expected to be resolved once and for all, there is short-term easing; inside the crypto circle, the "selling threat" has been completely debunked.
Putting these two together, at least in the short term, further hype about signing agreements and related news can still help push the market upward a bit. I found an address that hits the mark precisely every time it operates, and this time it moved again
Last night before bed, I was checking the chain and saw a giant whale's HYPE long position, worth 72.15 million USD
Trigger price was $47.6, just hanging below
I stared at that number for a long time
Then guess what
Early this morning I saw the news, HYPE was again subject to a 100 million yuan unpledge, and this time a Japanese company entered for the first time
On one side, the big holder's long position is hanging on the liquidation line
On the other side, the unpledged chips are being dumped into the market
Two opposing forces clashing, it's hard to say who will win or lose
I also pulled up Tether's financial report
Quarterly profit of 1.5 billion USD, gold reserves increased to 146 tons
The stablecoin leader is quietly making money, the cash cow is still getting fatter
This shows that the underlying business of the entire industry is good
Google is also making big moves, underwriting debt for AI data centers in exchange for 20% equity
Traditional giants are heavily betting on AI infrastructure, money is flowing in this direction
On-chain anomalies that I fear most are the ones I don't understand
This kind of understandable long-short clash actually gives me a clear idea
So my judgment is: for tickets like HYPE with long-short strangleholds, retail investors should not catch the falling knife. Before the pressure from unpledging and liquidation is fully digested, watching the show is more comfortable than entering. If you really want to position, machines like Tether that make money and the AI infrastructure narrative are more stable
I also looked at today's market, and a few points are quite interesting:
#HYPE again subject to 100 million yuan unpledge, Japanese company enters for the first time
Unpledging is a clear bearish signal, Japanese company entry is a hidden bullish signal, the two messages collided, so the price didn't collapse. This shows incremental funds are coming in, but whether they can hold depends on subsequent volume. My approach is to wait and see, and watch after the unpledging pressure is digested
#Tether quarterly profit 1.5 billion, gold increased to 146 tons
The stablecoin issuer earned 1.5 billion in one quarter, more aggressive than many listed companies. Gold reserves increased to 146 tons, which means the asset side is solidified. This company's profit is cash, not air, the industry's foundation is truly thickening
#Google underwrites AI data center debt in exchange for 20% equity
Google taking guarantees for equity is essentially a deep tie in the AI arms race. Giants putting real money on the line shows AI infrastructure is not hype but a necessity. This narrative can support long-term valuation, and I will treat pullbacks as dollar-cost averaging windows to buy in batches
$HYPE $USDT #whale #onchainI usually don't look at this indicator, but today I had a sudden urge to check it, and then I found something was off.
In the morning, I was holding a bun in one hand and checking the funding rates with the other.
BTC still had a small positive funding rate, ETH was also positive.
But SOL was negative, negative!
This kind of divergence is really rare.
Then guess what?
I quickly pulled up the candlestick charts.
BTC at 62924, down 0.05%, basically sideways.
ETH at 1852, down 0.75%.
SOL at 72.4, down 0.93%.
The one with the negative funding rate actually dropped the most, indicating that some shorts have already taken profits and closed their positions.
Combined with the weakening bearish momentum, the sentiment is neutral to slightly weak, not panic.
Technically, BTC is grinding between the high of 63150 and the low of 62268.
No breakout or breakdown, just waiting.
ETH’s 11th anniversary reminded me that this chain has been running non-stop for eleven years.
The on-chain ecosystem foundation is still there; the dip is actually a zone for long-term gradual accumulation.
On the Strategy side, the stop-buying-on-dips machine halted, with a Q2 paper loss of 8.2 billion.
The previous "buy when it dips" machine stopped, so short-term there’s one less support force.
So my judgment is: the funding rate divergence indicates the market is quietly rotating, not a one-sided dump. As long as BTC doesn’t break below 62200, it remains in consolidation. The negative funding rate on SOL might actually signal short exhaustion, so don’t rush to short.
I glanced at today’s news and want to mention a few points:
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
Eleven years uninterrupted—this phrase is a golden sign in the crypto circle. The older the mainnet, the more stable it is. The DeFi and staking foundations are solid. When it dips, long-term holders dare to add positions, which is one reason I’m confident holding ETH.
#Coldcard漏洞发酵，受影响机型扩大
Hardware wallet issues are scarier than exchange hacks because self-custody relies entirely on device security. CZ’s words are very real: fixing the vulnerability won’t save wallets already generated. I now keep large amounts in cold wallets and small amounts in hot wallets, spreading the risk.
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
The market used to assume it would dump and then buy the dip, but now that machine has stopped, so short-term there’s less support. On the flip side, its pause means the company is recalculating. When it figures things out and re-enters, that will be the real signal to watch.
$BTC $ETH #TechnicalAnalysis #FundingRatesTokenized stock trading soared in July, but the majority came from a single token Tokenized stock trading volume increased by 288% in July, indicating a growing interest in assets brought to the blockchain. However, the data shows that the majority of this increase came from QQQB. If this token is excluded, the total trading volume in July is only about $2.03 billion, which is about 30% lower than in June. In my opinion, this is a sign that the tokenization market is still in the early stages ofEvery time I see news like this, I know something big is about to happen
Woke up this morning, and Israel said the situation has reached a peak, on the brink of outbreak
The US government directly advised citizens in the Middle East to prepare for evacuation
I hadn’t even had my coffee yet, so I opened the market quotes first
And guess what
BTC 62924, down only 0.05% in 24 hours
Missiles hanging overhead, but BTC just won’t move
Then looking at the macro situation
The 30-year US Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, reaching 5.27% at one point
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is priced at 67%
PCE turned negative, inflation cooling, but long-term yields keep climbing
The bond market trusts oil prices and domestic demand, not CPI
The logic here is actually quite twisted
On one side, geopolitical risk is maxed out, gold and oil are rising
On the other, US Treasury yields hit new highs, squeezing risk asset valuations
Crypto is caught in the middle, yet it’s holding steady
ETF outflows yesterday were $265 million, cumulative still at $79.3 billion
Institutions haven’t fled, just watching
So my judgment is: in these days of dual pressure from geopolitics and interest rates, BTC holding above 62,000 is a sign of strength
Don’t chase the rally, wait for it to choose its own direction; the end of a sideways move often signals a breakout
By the way, there are a few hot topics worth mentioning today:
#30-year US Treasury yield hits 19-year high
5.27% last seen in 2007. A new high in long-term rates means higher risk-free returns, putting pressure on risk asset valuations overall, but BTC barely dropped yesterday, indicating on-chain holdings are more stable than expected, panic hasn’t spread
#Earnings Watcher: Four earnings releases next week, Circle closes the show
Geopolitical tension is tightening, Israel says it’s on the brink of outbreak, US advises citizens to evacuate. If fighting breaks out, gold and oil will move first, BTC getting hit short-term by sentiment is normal, but every time it gets hit like this, it’s a buying opportunity in batches, don’t panic along with it
#South Korea’s KOSPI surges 14% intraday, largest single-day gain in history
Inflation data cools, but rate hike expectations heat up, a classic expectation game. PCE turning negative is short-term good news for risk assets, but long-term yields don’t cooperate, so the market can only grind. I only buy dips, don’t chase highs, and don’t go all in at once
$BTC $ETH #macro #geopolitics Crypto equities are catching more pain than spot prices suggest. With BTC near $63k, companies that hold or earn in crypto face reporting headaches as portfolio marks compress from Q1 highs. The equity is a leveraged read on a moving target, and right now the target is adrift.
The interesting tell is that BTC itself is not selling off. Spot is flat, and Tether just posted a $1.5B quarter while quietly adding to gold reserves. If the underlying asset were truly broken, you would see more pressure there. What you are seeing instead is the equity wrapper being de-rated, not the asset. That distinction matters for how you size exposure into the next macro print.
Not advice, just analysis.
#OKXOrbitUBS's latest report has quite striking data. Simply put, the AI wave is finally about to hit the storage industry hard, and with a particularly heavy blow. According to their forecasts, by 2027, the combined capital expenditure of the world's 11 largest cloud service providers will reach $1.04 trillion. Of this, 73%, or $761.3 billion, is spent entirely on storage. You can compare that in 2025, their storage spending will be only $72.8 billion. In just two years, the price has increased nearly tenfold. This growth rate is no longer linear—it's jumping straight upward. $SNDK Regarding the three product categories, the differences are quite interesting. For HBM, it spent 24 billion yuan in 2025 and is expected to rise to 144.4 billion by 2027. This item is expensive, with the average price per GB rising from $1.52 to $2.77. NAND will also rise, from 18.7 billion to 168.1 billion, but the unit price remains very cheap, rising from 7 cents per GB to 27 cents. $MU The most outrageous is DDR. In 2025, it spent 30.2 billion, and in 2027, it is expected to cost 448.9 billion, with the unit price soaring from $0.43 to $2.30—more than quadrupling. This round of price hikes is partly because AI servers really consume too much memory, and on the other hand, it shows that in the face of new AI demand, the old logic of "as long as memory is enough" has been completely overturned. However, money may be spent, but things may not be made. UBS also mentioned that capacity is a major issue. Crystal#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
Earnings Preview: As Tech Giants Deliver Their "Guidance" Reports, Can Circle Become the Last Stabilizing Force in Crypto?
This week, the U.S. stock market will see four heavyweight "releases" — Palantir, the big data giant, after market close on August 3; chip titans AMD and space exploration pioneer SpaceX after market close on August 4 (Note: SpaceX is a private company, so this likely refers to market attention on its related developments or a misreport, possibly indicating another entity, but the original text is respected); and stablecoin issuer Circle before market open on August 5. In this lineup, Circle, as a "central bank-level" player in the crypto world, is positioned as the grand finale, which is highly significant.
The last round of tech giants' earnings gave the market a vivid lesson: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all exceeded revenue expectations, but their stock price movements were wildly different — Microsoft’s market cap surged 15.5% in a single day, Amazon rose over 9% after hours, while Meta dropped more than 9%, and Apple fell over 4% after hours. The numbers themselves are no longer the decisive factor; the real watershed is the guidance for the next quarter. The market now has high tolerance for the "past" but is extremely demanding for certainty about the "future" — whoever can provide a clear growth path amid high interest rates and the AI arms race will win capital’s applause.
Turning back to the crypto track, three preliminary report cards have been submitted: Coinbase’s revenue fell about 18.5% year-over-year, Robinhood’s crypto business revenue shrank nearly 40%, while Tether demonstrated its printing-machine-like resilience with $1.5 billion in net operating profit. These three report cards sketch a picture of the industry’s mixed fortunes — trading revenue is suppressed by regulation and liquidity constraints, but stablecoin issuers remain resilient due to the U.S. dollar interest rate dividend and on-chain settlement demand.
Now, Circle, as the issuer of USDC, is about to step into the spotlight. Its focus goes far beyond quarterly revenue or reserve asset income. What the market truly cares about is whether Circle can provide investors with a convincing narrative amid IPO expectations, compliance costs, and market share competition (against USDT). Especially with the U.S. Treasury yield curve still attractive, Circle’s reserve portfolio duration management and interest income flexibility will directly determine the sustainability of its "bank-like" business model. Moreover, the monetization progress of its cross-border payments and developer services is the value anchor that differentiates it from pure trading platforms.
If Coinbase and Robinhood reflect the thermometer of retail trading enthusiasm, and Tether reveals the hidden offshore dollar liquidity currents, then Circle’s report card will be the touchstone for whether compliant stablecoins can build an independent moat in the cracks between traditional finance and DeFi. Investors won’t demand it replicate Tether’s high profits but will closely watch its reserve transparency, regulatory response strategies, and paid customer growth — these are the "guidance" elements that will determine its IPO valuation midpoint.
Overall, although the four earnings reports this week belong to different sectors, their core is connected: Palantir’s AI commercialization inflection point, AMD and competitors’ computing power competition, and Circle’s differentiated strategy in the stablecoin red ocean all answer the same question — where is your next growth engine? For the crypto side, Circle’s grand finale may not bring dramatic stock price swings (if referencing traditional tech stocks), but it will provide a cutting-edge reference point for whether institutional funds dare to increase holdings in compliant crypto assets.
The answer is about to be revealed; we wait with anticipation.Over the past two days, the market has challenged the usual geopolitical playbook. Tensions in the Middle East rose, including reports of US embassy evacuations, yet $BTC failed to rally. Later, optimism increased after Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes, but Bitcoin didn't sell off either.
That suggests geopolitical headlines are not the primary force driving crypto prices right now. Instead, traders appear to be paying much closer attention to factors such as US dollar liquidity, monetary policy expectations, institutional flows, and overall market positioning.
This doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin has completely decoupled from geopolitical risk. Major geopolitical events can still influence markets, especially if they materially affect global liquidity, energy prices, or investor risk appetite. However, in the current environment, war-related headlines alone seem to be having a much smaller impact than many expected.
For now, it may be more productive to focus on liquidity conditions and macroeconomic catalysts rather than using geopolitical news as a standalone reason to enter or exit crypto positions. Markets can always shift, so staying flexible is more valuable than relying on a single narrative.BTC vs. Altcoin Relative Strength: The Key Turning Point of This Cycle: Tokenomics — How can we distinguish whether low-priced tokens that seem undervalued are truly undervalued, or traps of expanding circulation? The pitfall of low-priced tokens lies not in technology but in the supply structure. At first glance, seemingly cheap prices usually occur in projects with high FDV where the distribution ratio to total supply is low. The problem is when the large-scale unlock schedule arrives. As VC and team funds are released into the market, selling pressure is structurally formed, and even projects with sound fundamentals see their prices remain sideways or fall for a long time. The same pattern has already been repeated in ARB, OP, STRK, ZK, BLAST, MANTA, ALT, DYM, TIA, SUI, APT, SEI, PYTH, JUP, W, EIGEN, REZ, ETHFI, and others. What these lists have in common are high FDV, low initial float, and ongoing unlock pressure. The key point is that the market is already aware of this structure. The funds are low tokenomics risk If the global market crashes next week, $BTC and $ETH will be the first to be drained
If you hold BTC and ETH in your portfolio, the thing to watch next week is not the candlestick chart, but Japan.
The transmission speed of this event may be faster than you think — Japan sells US Treasuries → US Treasury yields surge → global risk asset valuations are pressured → crypto is the first to bleed. This chain is already in motion, and next week is the trigger point.
Why crypto stands at the center of the storm
The logic is simple: BTC and ETH do not generate cash flow; their prices rely entirely on liquidity expectations. When global funds tighten, interest-bearing assets can still hold on with yields, but crypto lives entirely on "the next buyer paying a higher price" — when a risk-off wave hits, crypto is always the first to be dumped and the last to be picked up.
Currently, the market is already fragile. BTC has been stuck in the 62,000-64,000 range for two months, with a slowly declining center of gravity; ETH is struggling repeatedly between 1,820-1,900. Above are all trapped positions, below is the faint 60,000 support level. If the global market is drained again at this time, BTC and ETH have no safety cushion.
And the syringe for the bloodletting is already in Japan's hands.
Japan's current operation is the largest "fire sale" in history
Let's review the timeline of what happened in the past few days:
July 30: The Japanese Ministry of Finance spent 8.45 trillion yen (about $53 billion) in a single day to buy yen, setting a record for Japan's single-day intervention. Within one hour, USD/JPY plummeted from 163 to 157.96.
July 31: Japan intervened for the second consecutive day; a representative from the New York Fed, on behalf of the US Treasury, sold euros to buy yen — the first joint intervention by the US and Japan in nearly 30 years.
As of now: Japan has consumed about $130 billion in foreign exchange reserves. The note with "buy 5-10 billion yen" written by Bassett was photographed and spread worldwide — even the US had to step in.
Why does the US personally rescue the yen? Because the bulk of Japan's foreign exchange reserves are US Treasuries. This $130 billion consumption essentially means selling US Treasuries to exchange for liquidity.
What is the problem? The problem is the yen cannot be saved. The root cause of yen depreciation is the US-Japan interest rate gap (Japan 1.0% vs US 3.5-3.75%). As long as the carry trade does not disappear, the yen will continue to be under pressure, and intervention can only create a pulse rebound. Historically, after every intervention, the yen continues to depreciate, and Japan's foreign exchange reserves get thinner.
How does this chain transmit to crypto?
Japan continues intervention → consumes US Treasury reserves → US Treasuries are continuously sold → US Treasury yields are forced higher.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is now above 5.2%, the highest since 2007. If Japan massively sells, this number will be even higher. Rising US Treasury yields mean what? They mean risk-free returns increase, and money worldwide will prefer to lie in US Treasuries earning interest rather than gambling on risk assets.
This is the distance from Japan to BTC — not geopolitical conflict, not war, but pure liquidity contraction. When US Treasury yields hit new highs, BTC's appeal declines, capital outflows accelerate, and rebounds are suppressed.
Next Monday (August 3), Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki will officially announce US-Japan joint action, and intervention is expected to intensify. Each intensification is a new round of US Treasury selling and a new round of bleeding in the crypto market.
Watch three signals closely
US Treasury yields: If the 30-year yield breaks above 5.2%, it is a direct liquidity tightening signal; crypto has no escape.
USD/JPY: After intervention, it briefly rebounded to 157, now falling back near 160. If it approaches 163 again, Japan will definitely intensify intervention, and US Treasury pressure will simultaneously increase.
BTC 60,000 level: The global volatility transmits to crypto; BTC's 60,000 is the last psychological defense line. If it doesn't hold, a new round of panic selling will begin.
The risk next week is not "if it will come," but "it has already come, and the market has not fully priced it in."
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#日韩同日抛售美元护汇
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 The most expensive tuition in this round isn't buying the wrong coin, but not understanding the chip structure before buying. Have you ever calculated how much of that "cheap" coin you hold is actually in circulation? On the surface, this knockoff season seems lively, with AI-driven tokens doubling in one day and the RWA sector stirring. But if you look at on-chain data, you'll notice a subtle misalignment: the stock of funds on exchanges hasn't really increased much; many of the rapid gains are driven by low-circulation, high-locking units self-promoted. To put it bluntly, what people are chasing might be the same batch of "beautiful-looking" chips. Recently, I've had a habit of watching the market and always ask three questions first: what's the circulation rate? When will the next batch be unlocked? Where is the cost price of the unlocked? If you don't look at these, no matter how beautiful the candlestick is, it's just someone else drawing it for you to see. Don't forget names like ARB, OP, and STRK—when they launched, which of them wasn't a star project? And what happened? Once massive unlocks occur, prices are directly crushed, and retail investors become the exit liquidity for VCs and teams. So what is smart money doing? The path I've observed is quite clear: - Funds are hiding in "fully circulating" or "near-fully circulating" memes, such as PEPE, WIF, BONK, at least without the unlocked sword hanging overhead. - DeFi and RWA sectors have been picked up again. Projects like ONDO, AAVE, PENDLE, which have real protocol revenue, have relatively solid chip structures. - The AI/DePIN track remains popular, but TAO and FE are still popularDon't be fooled by the market's stability! The current danger level of the AI bubble is completely different from all previous themes.
Recently, many people have noticed the sharp drop in storage chips and hedge fund losses, yet the overall market barely fell. The S&P only dropped 1.6 points from its high, and even the equal-weight index hit new highs. Many think the market is not at great risk, but there's a fatal misconception here.
Looking back at over a decade of U.S. stock market history, we've seen this pattern of a single sector being hyped up and then crashing many times. 3D printing, clean energy, and crypto concepts have all gone through bubble cycles. After the bubble burst, individual stocks plummeted painfully—SK Hynix fell by more than half, Strategy was cut by 83% from its peak—but none of these triggered major market turmoil.
The logic behind this is simple: previous themes rarely relied heavily on debt financing. Losses were ultimately borne by shareholders themselves, with the banking system not deeply entangled, keeping the financial foundation stable. Money flowed out from a busted theme and then fueled a new round of market activity, cycling repeatedly.
But the AI sector today completely breaks this safety framework. Industry estimates predict that over the next four years, data center-related investments alone will reach $7 trillion. More and more companies are borrowing to expand computing power and build data centers.
If the actual output from AI cannot support such massive capital input, the damage from the bubble bursting will be entirely different. Previously, only specific sectors suffered losses; this time, debt will transmit through the industrial chain into the banking system. No sector will be immune, and the entire market will face impact.
This can also be compared to our crypto space: computing power themes built purely on debt versus niche concepts fueled by own capital—the destructive power of these two types of bubble bursts is on completely different levels. Should everyone prioritize avoiding high-debt, heavy-investment but no-revenue targets in their recent portfolio arrangements?#30-year US Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High
Intraday peak reached 5.24% (highest since 2007), showing a very typical steep bear market: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, the short-term 2-year yield slightly retreated, but the 30-year ultra-long bond surged sharply.
1. Why did long-term bonds soar despite no rate hike expectations materializing?
1. Inflation concerns reemerge (short-term trigger)
The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, oil prices surged within the month, the market worries about a rebound in energy inflation and rising long-term inflation expectations. Investors holding 30-year long bonds require higher yields to compensate for inflation risk, leading to collective selling of long bonds, price drops → yields rise.
2. Severe internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve (core catalyst)
At the July FOMC meeting, 3 members voted to raise rates by 25bp, a rare occurrence in recent years. The market interprets this as: once inflation rebounds, the Fed will still be forced to hike rates; high rates will be maintained longer (Higher for Longer).
3. US fiscal pressure (structural long-term bearish factor)
Sustained high fiscal deficits and massive issuance of long-term Treasuries; overseas central banks and institutions show declining willingness to buy, causing supply-demand imbalance in long bonds, forcing yields higher to attract buyers.
4. Surge in term premium
Investors demand extra risk premium to hedge against all uncertainties over the next 30 years including inflation, debt, and geopolitical risks. This round of increase is mainly driven by term premium.
2. Direct impact on various asset classes
1. Growth/Tech stocks (Nasdaq, AI sector) bearish
High proportion of forward earnings, rising discount rates directly compress valuations, high-valuation sectors are most prone to pullbacks. Value and high-dividend sectors are relatively more resilient.
2. Gold and silver (non-yielding assets) under pressure
Holding gold yields no interest, rising risk-free yields on US Treasuries increase opportunity cost of holding gold; the only exception is when geopolitical panic fully erupts, where safe-haven logic outweighs interest rate logic.
3. Cryptocurrencies (BTC/ETH) high-risk assets
Historically highly negatively correlated. Tightening liquidity expectations and declining risk appetite lead funds to withdraw from highly volatile assets.
4. Oil divergence
Two competing logics: rising rates suppress overall demand; geopolitical conflicts support supply. Recently, geopolitical inflation logic dominates, pushing oil prices higher.
5. US Dollar: relatively strong
High long-term yields attract global capital inflows into the US, supporting the dollar index.
3. Key signals to watch going forward
1. US CPI and core PCE inflation data
If inflation rebounds again, the 30-year yield will likely challenge previous highs; if inflation continues to cool, pressure on long bonds will ease.
2. Federal Reserve officials’ speeches
Watch whether multiple hawkish members continue to signal rate hike intentions.
3. Middle East situation & oil price range
Brent holding steady at $95–100 will continue to push inflation expectations higher.
4. US Treasury auction results
Low subscription multiples for 30-year Treasury auctions = ongoing supply-demand pressure, yields likely to rise easily but fall with difficulty.Two Trillion Dollar Intense Reshuffle: After the Earnings Reports of Six Major Tech Giants, Capital Completely Divides into Strong and Weak Camps
This week, six leading US tech stocks released earnings reports, with market capitalization fluctuating nearly 2 trillion. By looking at the rise and fall data, you can understand the only stock selection criterion for institutions right now: whether AI investments can deliver real returns.
Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft are the absolute winners in this round, with their combined market value soaring by 1.5 trillion. Microsoft's market cap increased by over 600 billion, while Amazon and Google each rose by more than 400 billion, widening the gap with the other three companies.
On the other hand, there was a severe shrinkage. Even though Apple met revenue and iPhone sales targets, its next quarter revenue growth fell short of expectations, compounded by supply constraints due to storage chip shortages. On Friday, its stock price plummeted 7%, erasing 350 billion in market value; Meta lost 85 billion, Tesla slightly shrank by 7 billion, and all three faced simultaneous pressure.
The core logic of this divergence lies entirely in cloud business and AI spending. Amazon AWS's Q2 revenue surged 37% year-over-year, hitting a nearly four-year high. Even after raising full-year capital expenditure to 220 billion, it still achieved a 15% increase; Microsoft also rose 15%. In contrast, Meta, which is burning money wildly without matching revenue growth, dropped 8% directly. The market's tolerance for AI investment returns has reached a critical point.
Investment bank Jefferies estimates that in the next 12 months, total AI investment by major tech companies will approach 800 billion. The market no longer debates whether there is demand for AI; everyone is weighing whether companies' long-term profits can withstand such massive investments.
This valuation logic also applies to the crypto sector. Projects that only pile up computing power without generating actual cash flow will continue to be abandoned by capital. Only those that can generate stable income through AI and cloud narratives will attract long-term capital deployment.
Do you think the market will continue to tighten valuations on high-investment, no-return companies going forward? The trend has completely reversed! Now capital simply won't buy into AI companies that only burn money.
After reviewing the recent earnings reports of several tech giants, I've basically figured out the bottom line for institutional stock selection right now. The market no longer blindly chases all AI concepts; it has started to precisely distinguish between good and bad.
Meta has fallen into a big pit this time. Its revenue guidance missed market expectations, and free cash flow dropped to the worst level in recent years. The core issue is that it is pouring money into AI business without regard to cost, with expenses completely out of control. After the earnings report, its stock dropped 8% in after-hours trading. Simply put, capital is warning it through the decline.
Microsoft and Amazon's stock movements form a sharp contrast. Microsoft surged nearly 16%, with a single-day market cap increase of 450 billion, setting a record for the largest single-day gain in history. Not only did its cloud business deliver the best growth in four years, but management also clearly stated they will control capital investment this year and no longer expand blindly. Amazon also rose 15%, with cloud business growth exceeding expectations, easing everyone's concerns about the difficulty of recouping high AI investments.
Veteran options analyst Bob Lang put it plainly: all kinds of capital have long been tired of big companies' uncontrolled money burning. Companies that can balance business growth and control expenses are the current focus of capital. Following this trend, upstream AI hardware and technology support companies with actual landing revenue are continuously receiving capital support.
In our crypto circle, it's actually the same principle. Projects that only paint big pictures and continuously consume funds without real income will find it hard to have a market later; only those with real implementation and continuous revenue output in computing power and AI-related targets will have long-term capital lurking.
Have you noticed recently that whether in the US stock market or the crypto market, pure story-telling targets are getting harder and harder to rise?Weekend funds priced in early! Storage chips polarize, US tech stocks show relative strength against the trend
The traditional financial markets are closed over the weekend, but the perpetual contracts on-chain at Nasdaq Trade.xyz provide a clear price expectation for Monday's opening, with the global storage sector showing a completely split market.
The entire US tech sector slightly rose over the weekend, with leaders in computing and storage like Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk, Intel, and AMD all closing above Friday's prices. The market's long-term demand expectations for AI hardware remain firm, and short-term risk aversion has not spread to the US tech sector.
In contrast, Korean storage companies face significant pressure, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continuing to decline over the weekend. Based on current on-chain quotes, Monday's opening is expected to gap down by more than 5%. As core global storage suppliers, the weakness of these two Korean manufacturers also reflects differing views on the short-term supply-demand cycle in storage.
This divergence logic also extends to related computing power and storage narrative tokens in the crypto market. US tech stocks provide emotional support as a floor, but the decline in Korean storage will suppress speculative strength in cyclical sectors, making it difficult for the overall market to experience a unilateral strong rally.
How long do you think this round of divergence in the storage sector will last? Renowned trader: Bitcoin is currently still in a range-bound consolidation and close to the bear market low
Renowned trader Killa posted that as BTC enters a new monthly cycle, the market has formed a strong bearish narrative, so a bullish reaction is more likely at the beginning of this month.
He pointed out that based on previous trends, when BTC enters a new phase amid obvious bearish sentiment, a counter-move usually occurs. This pattern only fails when a major trend reversal is about to happen, such as in November last year and February and June this year.
Killa believes BTC is still range-bound and close to the bear market low, so there are two possibilities: one is the price breaks below $57,000 one last time; the other is it starts to rebound this month and continues range-bound movement.
Even if BTC continues to decline afterward, an initial rise of 2% to 4% this month better fits the current market structure. SpaceX plunged about 28% in the latest trading day. I made a profit on my short position this time, but I don't dare to be greedy at all.
Previously, the stock price was consolidating around $113. I saw the rebound was weak, with earnings reports and lock-up pressure approaching, so I tried opening a small short position. After the big drop, I have already closed most of it because the more profitable the short, the higher the short squeeze risk. Market data shows that the number of shares borrowed has accounted for a high proportion of the free float, which is not a suitable position to continue heavy shorting.
The company is expected to release earnings next week, after which up to about 1.37 billion shares may gradually become eligible for sale. In the short term, first observe whether support can form in the double-digit range; only if it can firmly hold above $100 will there be a chance for recovery.
The rocket test flight was nearly perfect, but the stock price free-fell. This is the difference between technology and valuation. Do you dare to catch a rebound after nearly a 30% drop now, or wait for the lock-up to truly expire?
$SPCX #SpaceX #ContractTrading
This is not investment advice. Fundamental Research Report $TEAM / Atlassian (NASDAQ·SaaS/Collaboration) $101.02 (24h +2.95%)
Summary: Atlassian ($TEAM) overall score 56/100, rating Narrative over Execution. The business fundamentals are mainly based on external paid services, and the market cap to revenue multiple remains within a reasonable range.
Company Overview: Atlassian ($TEAM) is listed on NASDAQ, in the SaaS/Collaboration sector. Simply put: Jira + Confluence. Comparable to CRM, MSFT. Business growth relies on order delivery and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match capital expenditure intensity. Macroeconomic interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation baseline. No involvement in token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product implementation: officially operational with paid usage, revenue verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings, financial data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, no valid commits found in the past 90 days.
User metrics such as MAU and customer count are based on 10-Q/10-K. Stock 24h trading volume $2.69M, circulating shares and market cap structure to be confirmed. Core focus on whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue $6.19B (latest financial report/consensus), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns assessed by buybacks and dividends. Profits of US-listed companies do not equate to token holders' profits; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate extraction of BTC unrealized gains. Code side: no valid commits found in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is Grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: Atlassian ($TEAM) is the listed entity, shareholder structure based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are Grade A evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are Grade C/D and not used alone as business implementation evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $25.63B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable for token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Comparison with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Atlassian $25.63B, CRM $150.71B, MSFT $3.45T. FDV: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM $150.71B, MSFT $3.45T. Annual revenue: Atlassian $6.19B, CRM $42.83B, MSFT $331.84B. Monthly active addresses or users: Atlassian undisclosed, CRM undisclosed, MSFT undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $25.63B, P/S (consensus revenue) 4.1x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic scenario halves $25.63B, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion 20-50%. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 56/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: rising macro interest rates pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory lawsuits (SEC/DoL). Key focus going forward: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amounts, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). The above is logic and judgment based on public information and does not constitute buy or sell advice. If core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
That's all for now, see you in the comments if you have thoughts.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbitThe chip handover has completed a bloody transition, retail investors' panic selling has ended, foreign capital has taken over the blood-stained chips, it's all the same script,
At the end of July, foreign capital made a large single-day purchase of nearly 60 trillion KRW, while retail investors sold nearly 100 trillion KRW in response, marking the largest single-day divergence this year, which also influenced $SHIB to surge significantly.
The rebound arrives, trapped retail investors are freed and exit, margin traders deleverage, leveraged ETFs are redeemed en masse, retail investors' subsequent entry funds dry up, and risk appetite plummets.
After digesting valuation and leverage risks through the sharp decline, foreign capital takes the opportunity to buy back semiconductor leaders at low levels.
The market completes a major chip turnover, retail investors deleverage and exit, institutional funds take over again.
Many traders burdened with margin debt actively reduce leverage and lower position risks, and quite a few funds choose to redeem semiconductor leveraged ETFs, further intensifying the selling volume.
After successive shocks of declines, margin calls, and forced liquidations, the incremental funds available for Korean retail investors to enter the market have shrunk significantly, no longer able to continue holding against the trend.
The chip handover is complete 🌹🌹🌹 #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
I am Cige. SpaceX's first financial report hasn't been released yet, but the stock price has already been crushed. $108.37, down nearly 20% from the IPO issue price of $135, and almost halved from the June high of $225.64.
The real test is the financial report and the unlocking
The first quarterly report since listing will be released after the market closes on August 4, and the real test comes after the report. On August 6, about 911.5 million eligible restricted shares will be available for sale, which, at recent stock prices, amounts to over $100 billion, exceeding the current public float. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, and Elon Musk himself will not participate in selling, but the selling pressure from early investors and employees is real. Starlink's revenue grew 50% year-over-year last year, but the company overall lost nearly $5 billion last year. Whether the financial report can provide a clear profitability path for Starlink will determine if the unlocking can be absorbed.
Impact on BTC
The SpaceX unlocking itself has no direct relation to BTC, but market sentiment will be transmitted. If SPCX's financial report disappoints combined with unlocking sell-offs, Nasdaq's risk appetite may be suppressed, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, will face pressure simultaneously. If the financial report exceeds expectations and the unlocking is digested by the market, tech stock sentiment will recover, and BTC will benefit. SpaceX represents a leading asset in the private space economy, and its price performance will affect the valuation anchor of the entire growth stock sector.
What to expect next
Before August 4, there will be a tug-of-war around the financial report and unlocking, with unclear direction, so observation is advised. If the financial report provides a clear profitability path for Starlink, the impact of unlocking will be much smaller. If the report is mediocre or below expectations, the $100 billion supply hitting the market will have an obvious outcome. The founder's lock-up is a good signal, but the scale of this unlocking pressure cannot be offset by one person's lock-up.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK A very contradictory scene has appeared in the market:
The US June PCE recorded its first month-on-month decline since 2020, yet the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007.
Inflation data is cooling down, but funds willing to lock in for 30 years are demanding higher returns. The bond market is clearly charging for more distant risks.
Oil prices rose about 20% in July alone, US second-quarter domestic demand hit a two-year high, and the latest FOMC meeting saw 3 votes in favor of a rate hike. Coupled with long-term Treasury supply and term premium, the monthly PCE decline is unlikely to quell market concerns about future inflation, fiscal burdens, and interest rate paths.
The crypto market has not yet been directly suppressed by this long-term bond yield.
As of 16:33, $BTC is around $63,391, up 0.45% in 24 hours, with a range of $62,275—$63,634; $ETH is about $1,873, up 0.22%, ranging from $1,822—$1,885. Major coins have recovered some losses, but the rebound remains restrained.
A 5.27% 30-year US Treasury yield effectively raises the bar for global risk assets again. BTC lacks a traditional cash flow valuation model, so new allocation funds still have to choose between US dollar interest rates, financing costs, and volatility risks.
This kind of macro pressure usually doesn't produce conclusions on the same day. It’s more like a ceiling that gradually weighs heavier, quietly changing how high each rebound can extend.
If the 30-year yield continues to stand above 5.3%, the market in August will face a direct question: in the face of long-term US dollar returns exceeding 5%, how much new capital is still willing to pay a premium for the volatility of crypto assets?
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 If this round explodes because of AI, you can consider dollar-cost averaging into the Nasdaq.
After it explodes, some will top up their positions, and those who do will get rich.
Warren Buffett made his fortune by buying in batches after major drops in the US stock market throughout his life. On Black Monday in 1987, the global stock market crashed, with the Dow Jones plunging 22.6% in a single day, and global markets collapsing as everyone fled regardless of cost. Quality consumer stocks were mistakenly sold off. Buffett reduced his holdings at high levels in advance and held a large amount of cash to hedge risks. He didn’t bottom-fish on the day of the crash but waited until 1988 when market sentiment remained low, then invested $1.3 billion to build a position in Coca-Cola, acquiring 7% of the total shares.
In three years, this investment grew from $1.3 billion to $3.75 billion. Over the next thirty years, Coca-Cola became a core holding of Berkshire Hathaway, with annualized returns consistently exceeding 18%. Then in the 2008 subprime financial crisis, the US stock market was deeply halved, investment banks were on the brink of bankruptcy, Wall Street liquidity dried up, financial giants were close to collapse, and the entire market was in a liquidity panic with no one daring to take over positions. One week after Lehman Brothers collapsed, Buffett subscribed $5 billion to Goldman Sachs preferred stock (with a fixed 10% annual dividend plus low-priced warrants for common stock); invested $3 billion in General Electric preferred stock; and in 2011, again invested $5 billion to bottom-fish preferred stock of Bank of America after its plunge.
In total, Buffett invested nearly $28 billion in 2008 to acquire quality assets at low prices, which yielded huge profits in the following decade of the bull market. In summary, a major drop in the US stock market means quality assets are discounted, but Buffett does not go all-in at the moment of the crash. He buys slowly in batches, keeps enough cash, only buys leaders with strong moats that won’t go bankrupt, and never touches junk stocks no matter how cheap. Most retail investors panic sell during crashes, but top-tier capital buys more in batches as prices fall. This is the core logic of capital stratification after a major drop.(ETH) 2000
#SpaceXUnlockLooms 1/2
Let’s keep it simple: ETH is the biggest high-beta macro play for August 2026. It doesn’t trade on technicals right now — it trades on Fed pricing, US regulation, and global geopolitical risk. ETH will outperform BTC on risk-on days and drop way harder when risk-off hits.
Key upside catalysts this month:
• Cooling inflation keeps Fed rate-cut hopes alive, pushing yields lower
• Spot ETH ETF inflows continue institutional rotation into Ethereum
• RWA & Layer-2 growth support its fundamental premium
• Mild geopolitical uncertainty drives hedge flows into crypto
#30YYieldAt19YHigh 2/2
Here are the exact downside risks that will kill ETH rallies in August:
• Sticky inflation or hawkish Jackson Hole comments will crush all speculative assets
• SEC & US regulatory headlines remain ETH’s #USStepsInForYen 1 overhang
• Any geopolitical escalation triggers immediate risk-off liquidations
• High derivatives leverage creates fast cascading dumps on support breaks
• Rising BTC dominance limits ETH upside momentum
My August verdict:
Choppy range-bound action until late August. No clean trend before Jackson Hole. This month trade MACRO, not charts.
10-year US Treasury yield hits 19-year high
#EthereumMainnet11thAnniversary: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements
$ETH $SOL The sudden shift in the Middle East situation caused both the crude oil and crypto markets to derail simultaneously over the weekend, with the halt in strikes quickly draining the geopolitical premium from assets.
Crude oil prices plunged nearly 10% from their highs, indicating the rapid squeeze-out of the geopolitical premium, while $BTC rebounded from around $62,200 to $63,500, showing a partial recovery in risk appetite.
The White House's verbal halt of military operations and announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz directly prompted safe-haven funds to withdraw from gold and crude oil, instead seeking short-term entry points in risk assets.
The plunge in crude oil cooled inflation expectations, which, combined with the dissipation of risk aversion leading to capital restructuring, mutually drove a phase of risk appetite recovery.
If the agreement framework is substantively signed in the coming days, the release of inflation pressure will guide capital flows toward risk assets, enabling $BTC to establish a rebound trend until new signals of macro liquidity tightening emerge.
If the verbal agreement is confirmed to lack substantive binding force, a renewed surge in oil prices will reactivate inflation alarms, causing recently replenished risk positions to be liquidated.
Currently, market pricing mainly relies on diplomatic statements; if either side wavers on specific terms, the current peace repricing logic will be thoroughly disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the actual tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切Crypto Market's "Sleepy July": Trading Volume Hits Nearly Two-Year Low, What Is the Market Waiting For?
The latest report from K33 Research points out that Bitcoin spot trading volume in July 2026 is expected to set the weakest monthly record since the end of 2023, dubbed "Sleepy July" by the market. Bitcoin's price dropped about 3% over the past week, with overall volatility falling to its lowest point since 2024.
Multiple reasons for shrinking trading volume. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains unclear, and institutional funds are choosing to wait for clear signals of rate cuts; on the other hand, frequent hacker incidents in the first half of the year (with cumulative losses exceeding $1 billion) have heightened some investors' risk aversion, reducing short-term operations. Additionally, the market performance after the Ethereum ETF listing has been stable but has not triggered a new round of FOMO, and the lack of hotspots has led to decreased fund activity.
"Sleepy" does not mean "dead." Historically, low volatility periods often precede major market moves. Similar "volume ice points" occurred in 2019 and 2023, followed by super rallies such as DeFi Summer and Bitcoin ETF approvals, respectively. The core contradiction in the current market is: when will the macro liquidity inflection point arrive?
Signals worth noting. Long-term holders continue to increase their positions, and exchange BTC balances remain at multi-year lows, indicating strong reluctance to sell. If the Federal Reserve clarifies a rate cut path in September, combined with continued ETF fund inflows, the market may see a new breakout. Conversely, if macro expectations fall short, the risk of a slow decline under low volatility cannot be ignored.
For investors, "Sleepy July" is not a reason to exit but a window for positioning. Stay patient, control your positions, and wait for clear signals. On the very first day of August, CME's "FedWatch tool" released its latest forecast, with traders believing the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September policy meeting had reached 67%. Meanwhile, the proportion believing interest rates will remain unchanged dropped to 33%. This figure itself is not surprising, but it clearly outlines the current market sentiment. The widely anticipated "multiple rate cuts within the year" at the beginning of the year has almost vanished, replaced by a repricing of the "rate hike cycle may still be in its final stage." Why did the market make such a correction? Recent economic data has been the main driver. The labor market remains tight, and service sector inflation has shown stickiness beyond expectations, keeping Fed officials highly alert in their public speeches. Although the June dot plot hinted at two more rate hikes this year, the market had been skeptical beforehand. Now, as oil prices rebound and the base effect gradually fades, concerns about a resurgence of inflation are becoming mainstream narratives. $SNDK Of course, 67% are not guaranteed. There are nearly two months left until the September meeting, during which two CPI and PCE inflation reports are to be released. If subsequent data shows that price pressures have truly eased, this probability is likely to drop rapidly. But for now, the bond market is actively adjusting its positions, short-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, and the US dollar index has found new support. $SKHYNIX For ordinary investors, this means one thing: a high interest rate environment is likely to last longer than expected. Whether it's the cost of corporate financing or the residentsFundamental Research Report $VIRTUAL / Virtuals Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Virtuals Protocol ($VIRTUAL) overall score 57/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Project Overview: Virtuals Protocol (token $VIRTUAL), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on AI virtual influencers/Agent Creator. Comparable to FET, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour, with A100 monthly rent $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, suppliers need no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price $50-$500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Virtuals Protocol $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Virtuals Protocol $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Virtuals Protocol $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Virtuals Protocol undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 57/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future focus: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment needed.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Conversely: If a deal is really made this week, $SOL will rebound before $BTC, but only under one condition
Don't be one-sidedly bearish. I'll also lay out the counter scenario for you—if the US-Iran framework agreement is finalized between 8/4–8/8, the Strait of Hormuz resumes daily passage of 15+ ships, and Brent crude oil falls below 85, then the capital inflow order will most likely be:
SOL > $ETH > BTC, not BTC leading the rally.
Three reasons:
First, SOL was "overkilled": SOL down -10% in 30 days, BTC only down a few points, so the more elastic one recovers first
On-chain fundamentals haven't collapsed: Solana daily active addresses still around 5 million, staking rate about 64%, the DeFi core of Jupiter+Kamino+Raydium TVL hasn't shrunk proportionally with price, meaning "price dropped, chain not dead"
The narrative remains: AI Agents (like Griffain) + DePIN + tokenized US stocks/RWA are among the few stories that can still add valuation layers to SOL by 2026, no longer just a pure meme chain
But the premise for switching to long is only one—73 must not break, and 70.5 absolutely must not break.
Here's a minimal watchlist:
Spot: Only buy dips below 72, don't chase slow declines; don't consider a reversal until 73.2 is reclaimed
Futures: Don't open positions in the 71–73 sandwich zone, follow only if it breaks above 73.8 or below 70.5, leverage ≤3x
Ecosystem tokens: Avoid JTO/KMNO/JUP this week, unlocking pressure + market beta double hit, don't hurt your principal
Macro triggers: Watch Japan Ministry of Finance speech on 8/3, Strait of Hormuz daily passage around 8/5, US CPI preview on 8/8—only if two or more improve is it considered "easing confirmed"
Now it's not about "whether to bottom-fish SOL," but "whether you have the qualification to hold on until easing confirmation." For high leverage players, surviving these 10 days is better than anything else. Bitcoin Four-Cycle Time Statistics, Bear Market End Time and Bull Market Start Time
First Cycle (First Halving: 2012-11-28)
Bull Bottom: 2011-11 (about $2)
Halving: 2012-11-28
Bull Top: 2013-11-30 ($1242)
1. Bull Bottom → Halving: about 12 months
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Top: about 24 months
Second Cycle (Second Halving: 2016-07-09)
Bull Bottom: 2015-01-14 ($152)
Halving: 2016-07-09
Bull Top: 2017-12-17 ($19891)
1. Bull Bottom → Halving: 542 days (18 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Top: 1069 days (35 months)
Third Cycle (Third Halving: 2020-05-11)
Bull Bottom: 2018-12-15 ($3122)
Halving: 2020-05-11
Bull Top: 2021-11-10 ($69044)
1. Bull Bottom → Halving: 513 days (17 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Top: 1061 days (34.8 months)
Fourth Cycle (Fourth Halving: 2024-04-20)
Bull Bottom: 2022-11-21 ($15476)
Halving: 2024-04-20
This Cycle Bull Market Peak: 2025-10 (about $126000)
1. Bull Bottom → Halving: 515 days (17 months)
2. Bull Bottom → Bull Top: about 1045 days (34.5 months)
Historical Pattern Summary
1. The last three mature cycles are highly consistent:
✅ After the bear market bottom, halving occurs in 17–18 months
✅ From bear market bottom to bull market peak, generally 34–35 months
2. The first cycle was an early niche market with lower reference value;
Therefore, the bottom of this bear market is roughly around December 2026 On July 31, Tether delivered a mixed Q2 report. The most striking figure is excess reserves: from $8.2 billion at the end of the first quarter, it was cut in half to $4.1 billion—a quarterly decrease of $4.1 billion. As the world's largest stablecoin issuer, this figure alone is enough for the market to ponder for a while. This is also the first time the market has so intuitively seen that the security of stablecoin issuers' reserves fluctuates along with macro fluctuations. The contrast in net profit is even more glaring. In the same period last year, Tether made a net profit of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but this year's net operating profit for the same period dropped to just $1.5 billion, a significant year-on-year decline. It should be noted that the "net operating profit" here usually does not include unrealized gains and losses from market value fluctuations in assets like Bitcoin and gold—and it is precisely these assets that have held the market down this quarter. Bitcoin and precious metals holdings are shrinking. Tether's Bitcoin position dropped from $6.6 billion in the previous quarter to $5.8 billion, and physical gold dropped from $19.8 billion to $18.8 billion, despite adding 14 tons of gold during the period. In the second quarter, Bitcoin and gold prices both fell by more than 10%, and under the mark-to-market rules, the accounts naturally looked poor. The company also disclosed that its secured loan exposure decreased by $2.4 billion. For USDT holders, excess reserves dropped from 8.2 billion to 4.1 billion, meaning the safety cushion has thinned but not broken; As long as U.S. Treasuries and gold reserves are genuine, the risk of depegging remainsJust last night, a set of data brought a subtle subtle change to the previously dull market. As Bitcoin gradually weakens amid volatility, funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs have quietly shifted, and the previously strong bearish sentiment is now clearly converging. Let me briefly explain what this "funding rate" is. It is a fee paid by both long and short sides in the perpetual contract market to keep the contract price close to the spot price. You can treat it as a thermometer of market sentiment. If the $BTC rate is above 0.01%, it indicates that bulls are overheated and the market is generally bullish; Below 0.005% indicates bears have the upper hand and widespread pessimism. The current reading is stuck in the middle, gradually rebounding from the previous pessimistic range, but it hasn't crossed the threshold of optimism, falling into a gray area of "slightly weak neutral." What does this mean? The most direct signal is: the previous one-sided consensus on short selling is loosening. The bearish power is waning, and both bulls and bears have returned to a relatively stalemate. For investors who have experienced a period of decline, this is somewhat a chance to catch their breath; at least the panic has not spread further. $ETH But then again, a calm mood and a trend reversal are two different things. A return to neutral funding rates only means the market has temporarily released the most extreme pressure. But whether the market will consolidate momentum and rebound to recover, or continue to decline at a different pace, is still unclear based on this data. It acts more like a rearview mirror, reflecting the fading of pessimism over the past few days, rather than steering the way forward. A few hours ago, Trump suddenly announced on social media: he agreed to cancel the strike on Iran. The reason was that "both sides have reached an agreement on the framework," including the "immediate, full, and complete reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz.
BTC instantly rebounded about $1,500, pulling back from the low near $62,200 on the 18th to $63,500.
Long positions across the network started shouting "peace" and "all bad news is out."
But I want to tell you—
What happened in the past 24 hours is not "peace" at all, but "the script has reached the third act."
Let's review what happened in these 24 hours:
Act One, verbal threats. On July 31, Trump spoke at the Camp David cabinet meeting: the U.S. would "strike Iran hard," and "one day, they will say they can't take it anymore." U.S. Central Command commander Cooper drafted a 10 to 14-day high-intensity bombing plan targeting power plants and refineries.
Act Two, evacuation alert. On August 1, the U.S. State Department issued broad security warnings to American citizens in multiple Middle Eastern countries, advising them to "consider leaving or prepare for rapid evacuation." The U.S. embassies in Amman, Jerusalem, and Baghdad simultaneously issued security alerts. Evacuation reminders never appear during the "bluffing" phase—this is a sign of substantial escalation.
Act Three, the present. Trump verbally called off the strike, but the condition is "an agreement can be reached quickly." On the 1st, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the destruction of three U.S. F-35 fighter jets. The trigger is just temporarily not pulled; the finger has not left the trigger.
This is not a ceasefire; this is the script reaching the third act—whether to strike or not is just one decision away.
If the strike really happens, how will BTC move?
Don't give me vague "it will rise" or "it will fall" answers. The core of trading geopolitical events is not guessing whether the strike will happen, but thinking clearly about what to do after it happens.
Three scenarios, match accordingly:
Scenario One: Limited strike (highest probability)
The U.S. military strikes 1-2 energy facilities as symbolic pressure. Political aides inside the White House strongly oppose a full strike, and the Pentagon worries about over-consuming air defense missile stockpiles. Strike once, give an explanation, then return to the negotiation table.
→ How BTC moves: Pulsed decline (risk aversion) → rapid rebound (safe-haven funds inflow). Volatility surges sharply. Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $62,800 and $63,500; once a limited strike lands, it will first drop to $60,000, then pull back above $64,000. A day-trading party, a trend trader's nightmare.
Scenario Two: Sustained strike (medium probability)
Multiple rounds of bombing continue through the weekend; cutting off Tehran's power supply is also under discussion. Iran's full counterattack plan is ready, targeting key Israeli infrastructure and U.S. energy facilities in the Middle East. Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were just hit by "unknown projectiles," damaging the engine room.
→ How BTC moves: Oil prices surge past $100+. Global stagflation expectations rise. In this script, BTC is not a risk asset but a hedge against "fiat credit collapse." It will outperform most assets. But not immediately—it will first experience a panic sell-off, then reprice amid the inflation narrative.
Scenario Three: Diplomatic de-escalation (just happened)
Trump verbally called off the strike, agreement framework reached, Strait of Hormuz reopened. This is the script the market is pricing in.
→ How BTC moves: Oil prices plummet, BTC rebounds short-term. But don't celebrate too soon—macro uncertainty decreases, meaning the "risk premium" fades. BTC rebounded from $62,200 to $63,500, but how long will this rebound last? It depends on whether the agreement is real or fake.
Three scenarios, completely different outcomes. But one thing in common—the volatility will soar.
Whether to strike or not, and how to strike, the market ahead will be a roller coaster.
At this point, betting on direction is less reliable than selling volatility.
Short options, collect premiums. It's ten thousand times more reliable than guessing what Trump will tweet tomorrow.
If the strike lands before Monday's open, can your position withstand 5% volatility within 10 minutes? A few days ago, $MSTR held its Q2 earnings call. At the meeting, Saylor stated that it is possible to sell $5 billion worth of BTC. This money will be used to replenish cash reserves, buy back stocks, and pay interest. At the same time, he hinted that the amount of $BTC sold could exceed this amount. —————————————————— Of course, I don't really care how much he'll sell; I'm more concerned about how long he'll sell. Looking at the $ETH/$BTC ratio, $ETH is currently appreciating compared to $BTC. If $MSTR will sell $BTC long-term, then there is a stable arbitrage path. $MSTR Selling $BTC is very likely to create significant selling pressure in the market, causing $BTC to fall much and rise less compared to $ETH. If I go long on $ETH and simultaneously short $BTC, as long as $ETH appreciates compared to $BTC, I can earn a risk-free profit. So rather than selling how much it will sell, I'm more concerned about how long Saylor will sell $BTC this time. The longer he sells, the longer the depreciation of $BTC will be compared to $ETH. But if Saylor quickly lowered his company's leverage, his motivation to keep selling coins would be minimal. If that's the case, my arbitrage pattern will be very dangerous. Because of this set#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
1. The turning point for the 30-year US Treasury yield: only if it clearly falls back from 5.2% will some of the pressure on the crypto market be relieved; if it continues to rise, the pressure on risk assets will further increase.
2. Upcoming US CPI, non-farm payroll data, and the Jackson Hole central bank speech at the end of August will directly influence the direction of US Treasury yields.
3. Simultaneously observe BTC-ETF funds: only when yields fall and ETFs return to net inflows can Bitcoin have the conditions to start a decent rebound.
The new high in the 30-year US Treasury yield is a mid-term macro mountain suppressing Bitcoin; it may not immediately crash the market, but as long as it remains high, BTC will struggle to enter a major bull market, and the rebound height will be capped. ETH has a relative advantage due to staking yields but cannot completely avoid systemic risks.
Current market performance: US Treasury bearish pressure is suppressing the large-scale market height, but short-term rebounds can occur driven by geopolitical news.
This explains why BTC is currently stuck oscillating around 63,000:
There is mid-term macro pressure overhead, and short-term news-driven battles make it difficult for the rebound to become a one-sided surge. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高#BTC#eth#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 #Coldcard漏洞发酵，受影响机型扩大 $BTC $ETH $BEAT With a command from Moscow, Russia's mining era has reached a historic turning point.
On July 25, 2026, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed Resolution No. 936, announcing a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency mining starting August 15 in Moscow, Moscow Oblast, and parts of Kursk Oblast. The ban will last until December 31, 2032, spanning over six years.
This is not a simple policy adjustment but a strategic energy defense battle.
Why Moscow? Because the power system here is overwhelmed. The Moscow Oblast Energy Department revealed that 65 data centers are currently connected to the grid in the region, with a total power supply capacity of 734 MW. Even more shocking, Moscow Oblast Energy Minister Sergey Voropanov previously stated publicly that mining's estimated power consumption in the Moscow grid reaches 1 GW. According to forecasts, by 2032, the capacity of data centers in the Moscow area could grow to 3.6 GW, accounting for 17% of the peak load.
The Energy Department's explanation is straightforward: without year-round restrictions, these areas will face power supply shortages.
Russia's attitude toward cryptocurrency is actually quite contradictory. Since mining was legalized on November 1, 2024, by February 2026, over 1,500 companies and individual entrepreneurs and about 4,000 individuals had registered with the Federal Tax Service. However, legalization does not mean unlimited expansion—when mining's computing power begins to threaten the stability of residential electricity, the government makes its choices without hesitation.
This ban also applies to local residents participating in mining pools and related activities, covering eight municipal districts in Kursk Oblast and Ligov City. In fact, similar restrictions have been implemented since 2025 in the North Caucasus Federal District, Donetsk, Luhansk, and other regions—Moscow's inclusion marks the ban moving from the frontier to the heartland.
From legalization in November to a full ban in August, in less than a year, Russia's mining narrative has shifted from "open" to "controlled." When energy security becomes the overriding national interest, no matter how large the computing power, it must yield to the power grid. This six-year ban not only concerns Moscow's power balance but also writes the most realistic footnote to the entire crypto world's energy narrative—the end of computing power is always the electricity bill and national will.
The choice left to miners is simple: either leave or wait until 2033. $BLESS Token Structure Review: Main Uptrend Has Started, Leverage Enters High-Risk Zone
Key Conclusions: BLESS has strong potential as a speculative token and has entered an accelerated main uptrend rather than lingering at a low level. The Alpha price anchor resonates with contract leverage, but OI, fees, and contract proportion are rising simultaneously, highlighting both current potential and liquidation risk.
❶ Volume and Price Acceleration: Up 57.1% in the last 24 hours, 73.5% in 96 hours, current price only about 2.7% below the recent high. Contract trading volume in the last 3 hours remains at 41.8 million U, with a turnover ratio of 0.86, indicating no significant volume contraction yet.
❷ Leverage Overheating: Real-time OI is about 889 million BLESS, up about 53% in 24 hours, accounting for approximately 36.2% of the public circulation; current estimated fee rate +0.048%, with recent settlement samples reaching +0.077%, showing a clear rise in long position costs and crowding.
❸ Capital Resonance: Contract trading volume is 147 million U, covering spot only 1.69 million U, contract/spot ratio 87.4x. Alpha accounts for 39.3% of spot and 50% of index weight, price anchor is clear, but the market highly depends on derivatives rollover.
❹ Supply Constraints: Up 247% over about 58 days since the low, circulating market value about 33.8 million U, circulation rate only 24.6%. Low circulation benefits short-term elasticity, but remaining supply and subsequent unlocks pose medium- to long-term pressure.
❺ Validation Path: Volume breakout above 0.01406 U, spot expansion synchronized and OI growth rate drops below 30%, structure can continue to upgrade; holding 0.0125 U still indicates strong turnover, breaking below 0.0113 to 0.0119 U clearly downgrades the main uptrend.
#Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨 #btc #okx Coinbase lost money for three consecutive quarters, but Uniswap is printing money
【DeFi Protocol · Uniswap】
Coinbase fell 5.6% pre-market, reporting losses for three straight quarters. At the same time, Uniswap V4's fee switch went live for three days, and protocol revenue nearly tripled—$325,000 daily flowing into UNI burn. UNI rose 16% in a week.
One is struggling on the loss line, the other quietly printing money on-chain.
What's the difference? Coinbase has thousands of employees, billions in compliance costs, and licensing fees worldwide. Uniswap? A few hundred lines of smart contract code plus a fee switch.
DEXs are nibbling away at CEX market share with the lowest cost structure. This isn't a one- or two-day thing—but the turning point may have arrived.
When decentralization starts making money, centralization can only survive on stories. 30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high, the real concern of the market is not bonds
Many people think that the new high in US Treasury yields only affects bond investors, but it actually impacts the entire financial market.
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a nearly 19-year high, indicating that the market is demanding higher returns on capital. It means borrowing costs for companies are more expensive, mortgage rates are higher, and high-valuation tech stocks will face greater pressure.
FTV Finance Network - Grasp investment trends and financial dynamics
More importantly, this indicates that the market's expectations for future rate cuts are cooling down. If long-term interest rates remain high, funds may flow further into bonds rather than high-risk assets. Going forward, the movement of US Treasuries is likely to continue influencing the performance of US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
$BTC $XAUT $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 A 138.88% increase in one day, but the market cap is only about $18.62 million. Very strong. Something's off.
Don’t treat $CATE as a trend just yet; this kind of market often disguises "fast gains" as "structural strength."
On-chain data from OKX shows liquidity around $1.83 million, top ten holdings at 13.32%, which doesn’t seem crowded; but bundled addresses total 11.95%, and the creator has historically been linked to 397 tokens that have already run away. The price is surging, but the chip history hasn’t been cleared.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.75%, and the 30-year is at 5.27%. Under high capital costs, liquidity premiums for small coins evaporate first. There’s no worthwhile odds to chase here. Watch if volume can continue to expand; don’t mistake one day’s heat for fundamentals. Data as of August 2, 16:24. Risk observation only, not investment advice.
#SolanaEcosystem #OnChainData #SmallCoinRisk #RiskManagement #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
The crypto sector is entering a busy earnings week next week, starting with American Bitcoin, linked to the Trump family, on August 3, followed by North American mining company Hut 8 on August 4, and digital energy firm MARA on August 6. Leading companies will take turns disclosing their Q2 results. However, the biggest highlight of the week is undoubtedly the "first stablecoin stock" Circle (CRCL), which will close the show before the market opens on Wednesday.
Circle will release its Q2 2026 earnings before the U.S. market opens on August 5. The market is focused on three core variables: USDC circulation, reserve asset yield, and distribution costs. At the end of Q1, USDC circulation reached $77 billion, but it is expected to slightly decline to about $73 billion in Q2. Despite the scale contraction, the rise in short-term market interest rates during the quarter partially offset the impact of the balance decrease. More notably, Circle's Q1 retained yield reached 41.4%, exceeding management's full-year guidance range of 38%-40%. The renewal negotiations of the distribution agreement with Coinbase in August will be a key factor determining future profit margins.
On the regulatory front, Circle recently received an important boost—on July 10, it was granted a national trust bank license. Analysts expect this license to generate approximately $20 million in incremental annual revenue. Against the backdrop of the GENIUS Act implementation and a clearer stablecoin compliance framework, this earnings report not only concerns Circle's own valuation but will also serve as a window to observe the entire stablecoin sector's shift from "interest dependence" to "diversified income." Will USDC regain growth momentum? Will distribution costs squeeze profits? The answers will be revealed on Wednesday.More than 80% of people are going long, bottom fishing... By the way, aren't you guys a bit worried? Today is already the 2nd.
On August 6th, this stock will unlock 900 million shares! That accounts for 20% of the total eligible shares.
Nearly 100 billion USD worth of unlocked volume...
Pay attention to the unlocking parties: eligible insiders and employees.
There's a saying: If you don't do this job, there are plenty of others who will!
Here it can be said: If you don't sell this stock, there are plenty of others who will!
So I think seeing double-digit drops is possible... So my personal view is bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term...
I don't know if it will drop after this unlock, but it definitely won't go up!