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明明长期看多 AI 算力刚需，资金却坚决不追 SK 海力士？大白话拆解 7 大核心原因
1、资本市场铁律：买预期、卖事实，前期涨幅彻底透支所有利好
过去 1 年 AI 催生 HBM 超级需求，海力士股价直接从谷底翻了好几倍，机构早已把未来 2-3 年存储涨价、HBM 放量的全部利润提前算进股价里了。
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $SPCX
等到二季度利润暴涨 557% 落地这一刻，反而没有新故事可以炒作：
财报营收、利润双双低于机构提前拉满的预期，就算业绩绝对值逆天，也属于 “利好兑现”，高位获利盘扎堆出逃，开启多杀多踩踏，资金不会再高位接盘。
股价从高点回撤接近 50%，就是前期泡沫消化的过程。
2、绑定英伟达的千亿长协订单：散户眼里的兜底利好，机构眼里是利润天花板
海力士手握英伟达长期 HBM 供货协议，锁定了 60%-70% 高端芯片出货量，普通人觉得订单稳、不愁销路；
但机构完全反向看待：
长协锁死了产品售价，后续 HBM 现货继续涨价，海力士没法赚到市场价溢价；万一后续行业周期下行，合约价格又不能下调，盈利上下空间全部被封死，失去了周期股最核心的上涨弹性36氪。
反观美光、西部数据没有大额绑定长协，反而能灵活蹭现货涨价红利，资金现阶段更偏爱这类标的。
3、存储是极致强周期行业，资金提前预判 2027 年产能过剩风险
AI 短期缺 HBM 不假，但海力士、三星都在大举砸钱扩产 HBM 产能，资本开支上调至区间上限；国内存储厂商也在稳步追赶突破。
机构不会等产能真过剩了再跑路，现在就提前计价：
等到明年大量新产能释放，存储芯片涨价周期会结束，价格拐头向下，业绩会快速下滑。
吃过 2023 年存储暴跌大亏的资金，对周期顶部极其敏感，不敢在周期高位重仓入场。
4、当下市场主线彻底切换：资金逃离烧钱硬件，抱团防御资产
最近全球资金大方向：
害怕美联储今晚偏鹰讲话、油价反弹通胀抬头、云大厂无休止砸钱建算力却迟迟赚不到钱。
资金集体从AI 算力、存储、光模块这类重资产硬件股撤离，转头扎堆苹果这种现金流稳、不烧钱的消费科技避风港新浪财经。
整个半导体板块都在被抛售，不只是海力士，美光、闪迪全线大跌，板块情绪崩塌，逆势做多完全逆着大盘资金流向走。
5、HBM 占比过高，反而拖慢短期盈利增速
海力士是全球 HBM 市占率第一的厂商，但 HBM 长协定价偏低；
二季度通用 DRAM、普通闪存现货涨价幅度巨大，三星、美光靠普通存储赚得更多，海力士因为高端 AI 芯片占比太高，反倒没吃到本轮现货涨价红利，ASP（芯片均价）环比涨幅大幅收窄，进一步打消资金做多意愿。
6、韩国本土股市系统性崩盘，拖累海力士被动杀跌
今天韩国金融市场崩盘触发多次熔断，官方紧急开会救市，根源就是前期杠杆 ETF 放大下跌踩踏；
海力士是韩国股市第一权重股，本土散户、基金恐慌性赎回抛售，源源不断的抛压压着股价抬不起头，美股 ADR 同步被带崩，短期很难独立走出反弹行情36氪。
7、美股上市破发，给跨境外资释放撤退信号
海力士美股 ADR 上市仅仅两周就跌破发行价，外资机构直接认定本轮 AI 存储行情阶段性见顶，大批欧美资金陆续减仓离场，缺少增量资金接力拉升股价36氪。
一句话总结
长线 AI 持续消耗 HBM，海力士基本面没问题；
但短期预期打满、周期见顶担忧、资金避险出逃、长协锁住盈利弹性多重利空叠加，即便看多 AI 大方向，资金现阶段也不会进场追涨，只会等待深度回调后再布局。#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve faces a critical test at the July FOMC.
June's cooling inflation and weakening employment have given the Fed confidence to pause rate hikes; however, Middle East oil prices breaking $100 and AI continuously pushing up long-term inflation, along with hawkish members applying pressure, mean the policy has no clear path to fully tighten or ease.
This meeting is just a transition; the real turning point will be the September quarterly dot plot.
How long high interest rates are maintained will determine the sustainability of the rally in memory cycle stocks like Micron and Hynix, and also influence the northbound capital flow into domestic semiconductor stocks on the A-share market.
Waiting quietly for the chairman's press conference to set the tone with a single word. $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 Lol July really did exhaust everyone 😂 This month's market is like punching each other constantly
1️⃣ *$SKHY miss* just when memory is high leverage. Revenue + EBITDA is still +2.5x / +5.5x YoY but missing a few billion → is enough for MM to sell $MU $SNDK after hours 🩸
2️⃣ The problem is not demand. The problem is too high expectations + high leverage. 1 small miss is always a domino
3️⃣ *$83 oil after hours* + FOMC 2 a.m. = "bad head" combo. Inflation heats up → the Fed is difficult → suppress tech + memory 📊
4️⃣ The mentality is now "whatever news, sell first, ask later". Good news ignored, bad news x2
*In short*: It's not dead memory. It's just too much trading + too much leverage. Reset required
Take a breath for 1 beat, wait for the Fed to finish speaking. After the storm, we know who is still standing ❤️
Are you holding $MU or just standing outside watching?🚨 Absurd to the point of suffocation! Cryptocurrencies have become a supporting player, and US stock storage has drained liquidity from the entire crypto community
Opening the OKX contract trading volume rankings, one glance is both heartbreaking and absurd. The rankings, once firmly dominated by $BTC, $ETH, and various altcoins, have now been completely unrecognizable.
Let's break down the distribution of funds one by one by comparing the real rankings with screenshots:
Of the top five trading volume seats, half were occupied by US stock storage companies. Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two major crypto pillars holding the stage, other popular trading funds fled en masse, flocking to US cyclical stock contracts. Local liquidity in the crypto world is being frantically siphoned by SanDisk, Hynix, and Micron.
1. Why are funds collectively abandoning crypto and flocking to short US stocks and storage stocks?
1. Market fluctuations vary greatly, and contract profitability is not on the same level
BTC and ETH fluctuated intraday by less than 1%~2%, with narrow sideways movements repeatedly inserting needles, making it difficult for bulls and bears to break out of the trend, resulting in very low margin for error in short-term order opening.
In contrast, the storage sector generally fell 6%~7% in a single day. In the medium term, it clearly follows a major bear market trend, and the profit-loss ratio of short selling is extremely high. Whether it's bottom-fishing rebounds or chasing shorts, there is sufficient market support for trading, naturally attracting a massive number of contract players.
2. The logic behind the AI storage bull market has completely collapsed, and the cycle reversal has brought sustained trading enthusiasm
In the previous AI speculation cycle, Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix experienced several times the bull market. Now, with overcapacity and continuously declining storage prices, and the strong breakthrough of domestic Changxin, the logic of the rise has been fully disproven, leading to the unsuccessful breakdown and a deep correction.
A complete bull-bear cycle switch has led to a continuous divergence between long and bear markets, with trading volume remaining high. At present, cryptocurrencies lack strong narrative drive, resulting in a sluggish market.
3. After the trading categories are unified, crypto capital now has a brand-new outlet
OKX's launch of perpetual contracts for individual US stocks has effectively opened a floodgate for billions of U-shares that have been settling in the crypto world for years. Traders don't need to switch platforms or exchange external funds; they can trade US stock cyclical stocks on the same interface.
When the crypto market weakens, funds flow out immediately to participate in the US stock market, no longer clinging to counterfeit or public chain contracts.
2. The most painful reality: It's not that the crypto world is short of money, it's that money no longer circulates in cryptocurrency
SOL, ADA, and various popular counterfeit brands used to consistently rank among the top in transaction volume for years, but now they have no voice on the list.
The massive liquidity that should circulate within the crypto ecosystem has been heavily shifted to the US stock storage sector. ETH and BTC are barely holding their foundations, with almost all new speculative funds flowing into external targets.
As long as this round of storage bear market declines does not reach a temporary bottom, the funds drawn away will find it difficult to return to the crypto market. Currently, the entire crypto contract ecosystem has become dominated by the two major Bitcoin and Ethereum platforms, with US derivatives taking up the vast majority of the fresh capital.
Brothers, do you think crypto can recreate its former glory?
#新手必看: Everything you need is here The FOMC boot has dropped, but instead, I find myself even more sleepless.
I got up at 2 a.m. to check the rate decision—interest rates remain unchanged, as expected. BTC barely moved, hovering around 63,000.
Honestly, I'm a bit disappointed. If there had been a rate hike, creating a deep dip, that would have been an opportunity; now it's "no hike" but "no easing" either, just hanging in suspense.
One sentence in the minutes caught my attention: internal disagreements about the inflation path are greater than before. Some think inflation will rebound after oil prices break 100, others believe the economy can't withstand further hikes. Who's right or wrong is unknown, but the Fed's own uncertainty is itself a risk signal.
Another thing that makes me cautious is the effective abolition of "forward guidance." Previously, the Fed would give you a roadmap—"rates will rise next" or "pause coming"—but now, Waller just doesn't say anything. Institutions hate uncertainty the most, so a lot of capital is choosing to wait.
It's even more obvious among retail investors: the group chat is especially quiet today, no one shouting "V-shaped recovery," no one shouting "all in." The $675 million liquidation lesson is still fresh; those pricked won't rush back in immediately.
My current position hasn't changed, no increase or decrease. If in the next few days volume picks up and BTC holds above 65,000 steadily, I'll consider adding a bit on the right side; if it continues down, I have a buy order near 60,000 waiting.
Honestly: the market now feels like a long-stifled summer—everyone knows a heavy rain will come sooner or later, but no one knows when it will fall. At times like this, only those with bullets in hand have the right to wait for the rain to stop.
To sum up tonight's feeling in one sentence: the boot has dropped, but the direction is unclear. Don't bet on direction, bet on not panicking.
I'm truly at peace now.Beijing time July 29, 21:30 open to 22:00 (first 30 minutes of trading) complete trend of US tech stocks
Overall big picture: extreme divergence, defensive tech stocks cluster, AI chip sector collectively under pressure and fluctuating
Core market sentiment: everyone is holding cash waiting for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2 AM, reluctant to open large positions; funds continue to flee from AI computing power/storage growth stocks, flocking to defensive tech leaders like Apple with stable cash flow, Nasdaq overall runs weak.
1. Performance of the three major indices in the first half hour after open
Dow Jones (mainly traditional blue chips): opened down 0.76% directly, briefly dipped then slightly recovered to narrow losses
Funds slightly taking profits from previous big gains, banks and consumer blue chips leading the pullback, the most volatile index in the market.
Nasdaq Index (main battlefield for tech): opened down 0.19%, narrow range gradual decline throughout
Price movements completely split: defensive tech stocks hold up, AI chip sector weak dragging the market down, overall volatility very small, atmosphere full of caution.
S&P 500: slight decline of 0.23%, following the market’s oscillation.
2. Individual sector and stock trends explained one by one
1. Apple (AAPL, the strongest tech safe haven)
Trend: after opening with a slight pullback near 336 support, immediately stabilized and rose, consolidating at high levels, closing up against the trend, continuously hitting new stage highs intraday, market cap approaching 5 trillion.
Underlying logic:
The market fears the Fed’s speech tonight will be hawkish and inflation will rebound, so funds treat Apple as a safe asset and keep buying;
Although the 4-hour RSI is severely overbought, the downside support is very strong, short-term will only grind at high levels without deep correction;
As long as easing expectations are not realized, funds will not massively exit Apple.
2. AI computing power leader (NVIDIA NVDA)
Trend: opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward, down 1.39% within half an hour, price dropped to $194.28.
Current state: weak throughout, slight rebound lacks strength, low buying interest.
Reason: the market strongly dislikes tech giants endlessly spending to expand AI computing power, worried about future oversupply and continuous profit dilution, funds keep taking profits at highs, hard to rebound.
3. Storage chip sector (most volatile, rise then fall)
Early open: boosted by South Korea’s emergency meeting at 17:00 to rescue the market, short-term collective surge
Seagate up 5%, Western Digital up 2%, Micron and SK Hynix’s declines narrowed significantly, market playing a technical rebound from oversold;
Before 22:00: after digesting the good news, selling pressure resurged, all turned down
Micron turned from up to down within half an hour, down nearly 2%; Western Digital and Seagate gave back most gains, brief recovery ended.
Plain summary: South Korea’s rescue is only a short-term emotional catalyst, cannot solve the core concern of global storage long-term overcapacity, rebound space very limited, surge is just a profit-taking opportunity.
SanDisk remains the weakest stock in the sector, pressured and declining throughout.
4. Upcoming after-hours earnings giants (Microsoft, Meta)
Trend: pre-market speculative rise, slight sideways fluctuation at open, very small price changes.
Funds are betting on Microsoft’s cloud business growth exceeding expectations, but generally cautious: even if revenue meets targets, if the earnings report raises full-year AI capital expenditure, the close will likely replicate Google’s plunge, so no one dares to push prices up heavily, all watching and waiting for earnings at midnight.
5. Other tech stocks
Google slightly up, Tesla weakly down, Amazon weakening with fluctuations, no unified trend, each diverging.
3. Three core underlying reasons for the market
Inflation worries suppress risk assets: international oil prices continue rising, market fears inflation rebound, Fed speech likely hawkish tonight, funds preemptively avoid high-valuation AI growth stocks;
Major fund rotation begins: from AI chip frenzy to Apple, consumer, traditional value blue chips, growth stocks temporarily out of favor;
Funds lying low before major decision: all big market turning points locked on Fed rate decision + chair’s press conference at 2 AM, first half hour of trading just slight warming up, no trend.
4. Forecast until 2 AM
Will maintain narrow range oscillation:
Apple consolidates high and resists decline; NVIDIA and storage chips slightly drifting down, repeatedly bottoming; Nasdaq overall weak, volatility shrinking.
Only when the Fed speech lands will there be a one-sided big surge or plunge.This wave is truly incredible; Korean retail investors have directly created an extremely magical closed loop in the capital market.
Tonight, South Korea urgently issued a statement to restrict leveraged ETFs. Upon checking the data, it was found that the hottest trading tool in all of Korea right now is 0193T0 (Samsung KODEX SK Hynix Single Stock 2x Leveraged ETF). This product is a single-stock 2x leveraged tool issued by Samsung's asset management company (Samsung Asset Management), specifically designed to amplify speculation on competitor SK Hynix's stock price, having attracted over several billion dollars since its listing.
Single-stock 2x leverage turns the semiconductor giant into a huge casino for speculation.
Samsung issues the tool and collects fees from Hynix players.
Retail investors frantically leverage up to blow up the market, then turn around to call for regulation.
The South Korean government is heavily dependent on Samsung but has no choice but to intervene Oil prices have surged again, and the current downturn for BTC and ETH may not be over yet. BTC fell below $63,000 yesterday, and ETH dropped to a low of $1,865. Many believe this is just a normal correction, but I think the market's real concern is not the technical aspect, but that the macro environment is undergoing new changes. In the past two days, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again, and international oil prices have strengthened. What does rising oil prices mean? It means transportation costs, energy costs, and corporate production costs may rise again, all of which will eventually be reflected in US inflation data. Once inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to signal easing. This is currently the biggest risk in the market. Wash has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed's core goal remains to keep inflation stably controlled at 2%. This means that as long as inflation risks are not truly eliminated, even if the economy slows down somewhat, the Fed may not rush to shift toward rate cuts. Therefore, what really deserves attention tonight is not whether interest rates will be adjusted, but Wash's judgment on future inflation and interest rate paths. If he continues to emphasize: inflation remains above target; rising oil prices add new uncertainties; high interest rates need to be maintained longer; then the market is likely to continue interpreting this as hawkish. For BTC and ETH, high interest rates mean US dollar liquidity remains tight, and risk asset valuations will continue to face pressure. From the market perspective, after BTC fell below $63,000, the bulls' defense line has begun to weaken. If after the meeting there is still no CME shows a 31.5% probability of a rate hike, Goldman Sachs expects 1-4 dissenting votes on the rate hike
ETF net outflow for four consecutive days totals 526 million — but in these two days, BTC violently surged from 62,600 to 64,300, with a total liquidation of 399 million USD across the network. Is this wave a "bull trap before the decision," or is smart money rushing ahead?
On one side:
A violent rebound from 62,600, short-term moving averages turning upward
Fear index at 29, sentiment extremely pessimistic, rebound window opens
Cumulative ETF net inflow of 51.3 billion, institutional foundation remains intact
If no action is taken + dovish wording → violent rebound targeting 67-68k
On the other side:
31.5% probability of a rate hike, rare in recent years
Goldman Sachs expects 1-4 dissenting votes, statement may acknowledge inflation upside risks
ETF net outflow for four consecutive days totaling 526 million
If an unexpected rate hike → BTC accelerates testing 60k or even 58k
BTC now is like a blindfolded tightrope walker —
On one side is the 31.5% rate hike probability, on the other is the ETF cumulative 51.3 billion institutional base.
Which side are you on tonight?
Hold steady or expect an unexpected rate hike $ZEN
$ZEN is under selling pressure near a key support zone. A successful hold could trigger a recovery.
EP: $3.78–$3.86
TP: $4.00 / $4.18
SL: $3.62🚨 Institutional Wallet Activity: $HYPE Sees Major Movement
Around $7.33M worth of $HYPE has reportedly been withdrawn from exchanges by a wallet linked to a16z, drawing attention from the market.
Earlier, the same wallet reportedly moved around 398K $HYPE onto centralized exchanges, which looked like potential distribution.
Now the wallet has reportedly reversed course and accumulated approximately 132,056 $HYPE.
What could this mean?
🟢 It may signal institutional repositioning.
🟢 VCs and large holders often rotate, hedge, and rebalance positions.
🟢 Buying after selling pressure can create psychological support among traders.
However, one wallet movement does not confirm a bottom or guarantee a major rally.
It could also mean preparation for more volatility rather than immediate upside.
The key factors to watch:
📊 Trading volume
📈 Broader market trend
💧 Liquidity conditions
🎯 Continued accumulation or distribution behavior
Don't trade based on FOMO.
Follow the data, not just the narrative.
$HYPE
$BTC
$SNDK
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss $QTUM
$QTUM is holding near an important support zone. A volume-backed rebound could open higher targets.
EP: $0.640–$0.652
TP: $0.672 / $0.700
SL: $0.617Microsoft's Q4 press release is only the first layer: the 10-K can complete the full-year balance sheet reconciliation
The official IR page still marks FY2026 Q4 as launching on July 29, with the latest result still showing Q3. This is the fiscal year's end. Post-market press releases can quickly provide revenue, breakdowns, net profit, and cash flow, but a full understanding still requires waiting for the 10-K; Before the annual report is released, you cannot assume that liabilities, commitments, or accounting classifications not mentioned in the press release have changed.
The first layer reads the quarterly table. Total revenue, revenue from the three segments and operating profit, Microsoft Cloud revenue and gross margin, net profit, diluted EPS, operating cash flow, and capital expenditures form the basic outline for Q4. Last quarter, Q3 revenue was $82.9 billion, operating profit was $38.4 billion, and operating cash flow was $46.7 billion. These are just the baseline comparisons for the same fiscal year, not figures released in Q4.
The second layer is the total for the whole year. After the quarterly results are released, the total for all four quarters should be used to reconcile FY2026's full-year revenue, operating profit, tax rates, cash flow, and shareholder feedback. Avoid mistaking highly seasonal corporate contract signing or equipment payment timing as the annual trend. Q4 may also include the costs of voluntary retirement plans previously announced by management. The actual amount and reporting location should be subject to the official form.
The third level is the balance sheet and notes for the 10-K. Cash and short-term investments, debt, deferred income, finance leases, purchase commitments, share-based compensation, income tax, and investment projects can all change the understanding of financial flexibility. AI data center investments, whether finance leases or long-term commitments, may not be fully reflected in quarterly cash capital expenditures.
Also, check if there are updates for subcategories. Microsoft Cloud is a company benchmark spanning multiple products, while Intelligent Cloud is the accounting division; If the annual report adjusts product classification or comparison periods, the article will use a new table and retain explanations for reclassification, and changes in caliber cannot be mistakenly written as actual growth. Regional revenue and foreign exchange impact are also based on the same caliber data disclosed by the company.
Only then will the FY2027 guidelines be addressed. Any statements on revenue, gross profit, capital expenditure, or depreciation for the next fiscal year during the call are forward-looking management and cannot be included in FY2026 realized results. My draft of results is marked with three statuses: 'Press Release Confirmed,' '10-K Pending Review,' and 'Management Outlook,' and will be updated once the documents are complete. The official Q4 has not yet been released, so only the verification framework is retained, without using analyst estimates or after-hours rumors.
The annual report also reconciles accounting policies and risk factors. Cloud contracts, software licenses, and hardware revenue are recognized at different times, so changes in deferred revenue may also be affected by billing seasons; Without a note, you cannot treat receipts as income. If a company updates the depreciation period, investment classification, or tax assessments of equipment, the draft will retain the difference between old and new standards, without rigidly applying old models. Litigation, regulation, and purchase commitments are only quantified when the 10-K is formally newly disclosed, without needing news or rumors to fill gaps. Dehydrated all-day market data, strip away market noise, and focus only on the core information that truly influences capital flows. 👇 🌍 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ One-sentence summary: Microsoft and Meta's earnings spark confidence in AI; US stock futures surged but then retreated, opening slightly lower before the market. Asia-Pacific emerges from a bittersweet situation: A-shares rebound mildly (Shanghai Composite +0.4%), South Korea crashed again, closing down 5.97%, with a two-day cumulative drop of over 16%. BTC has returned to the 64,000 level, while oil prices continue to fall below $85. All assets are awaiting the FOMC decision at 2 a.m. on Thursday to give its final direction. 🪙 Crypto | BTC returns to 64,000, ETF sees net inflows for two consecutive days. BTC has fluctuated and rebounded from the low of 62,100, with Binance's trading range between $64,000 and $64,200, successfully reclaiming the key 64,000 level. Liquidity continues to improve: Spot ETFs saw net inflows for two consecutive days, with about $210 million net inflows yesterday. Fidelity's FBTC contributed over $150 million, prompting institutions to accumulate shares at previous panic lows. The short-term holder cost line is around $64,000, and today it successfully held steady. 👉 Uncle Watches BTC Complete a Clear Transmission: Asia-Pacific panic sells → Microsoft and Meta's earnings report restore risk appetite→ crypto assets follow the rebound. Although it has returned above 64,000, it is merely a rebound recovery; the real trend is awaiting the FOMC decision.US Stock Market Open 15-Minute Live Session (Beijing Time 21:30-21:45)
1. Overall Performance of the Three Major Indices (Core Situation: Wide Opening Lower, Severe Divergence)
Dow Jones Index: Largest Drop, Opened Lower, Currently Down 0.8%
Traditional consumer and aviation sectors collectively crashed (American Airlines plunged nearly 4%), with funds briefly cashing out previous gains, and blue-chip stocks were the first to come under pressure;
Nasdaq Index: Opened Slightly Lower, Down Only 0.19%
Evenly split between strong and weak sectors, leading safe-haven stocks stabilized the market, while AI computing power caps remained weak;
S&P 500: Slightly down 0.23%, overall fluctuating and pulling.
Overall atmosphere: Opening funds were cautious and wait-and-see; no one dared to open large positions, everyone held their funds and waited for the Fed's rate decision at 2 a.m. to be finalized, so the volatility was not very dramatic, mainly consisting of slight dips and fluctuations.
2. Core stocks and sectors explained one by one
1. Apple (AAPL): The strongest safe haven in the market, holding up against the trend
Although the indicators were severely overbought during the earlier rally, safe-haven funds firmly supported the bottom. After a slight pullback at the open, it quickly stabilized, fluctuating almost flat without a sharp plunge.
As long as market panic persists, it will be difficult for it to fall deeply, and in the short term, it will only consolidate at high levels to absorb profit-taking.
2. Nvidia (NVDA): Slight weakness and fluctuation, down 0.7%
AI computing power growth stocks were generally avoided by capital, opening slightly lower, but some bottom-fishing funds picked up midway, narrowing the decline;
At present, the market still resists the "big players continuously burning money to stack computing power," making it difficult for Nvidia to achieve a strong rebound.
3. Storage Chip Sector (Today's Biggest Highlight)
Boosted by news of South Korea's emergency financial meeting to rescue the market, the market reversed and turned positive in early trading:
Seagate Technology surged over 5%, Western Digital rose 2%+, while Micron and SK Hynix narrowed their losses significantly.
To put it bluntly: the crash a few days ago was too steep, and now it's riding on Korean market support news for a technical oversold rebound. It's just a short-term sentiment recovery, and concerns about long-term overcapacity haven't disappeared, so the rebound space is limited.
4. Upcoming post-market earnings targets (Microsoft, Meta)
Pre-market gains were pre-market and warmed up, with market gaming cloud business revenue exceeding expectations and slight fluctuations at the open, awaiting the evening earnings release;
The biggest hidden danger right now: even if revenue meets targets, as long as AI capital spending continues to be raised, the earnings report will still replicate Google's plunge trend.
3. Underlying logic + upcoming trend prediction
Root causes of the opening drop: Rising oil prices have once again sparked inflation concerns, and the market fears the Fed's hawkish speech tonight, leading to a slight reduction in positions early to avoid risk;
South Korea's market rescue only benefited local sentiment in the storage sector and did not move the overall US stock market;
Next hour: Likely to maintain narrow fluctuations, with smaller fluctuations. All major market turning points are locked in the Fed Chair's speech at 2 a.m.
4. Linking with Bitcoin as a collaborative move
BTC followed the Nasdaq under slight pressure and fluctuated, with gains and losses fully tied to US tech stocks, with no independent market trends yet. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations $BTC Current price * BTC is hovering around $64,000–64,400, after bouncing back from lows around $62,800 in the last 24 hours. 1. Technical Trend * Short-term Trend: Neutral → slightly negative. * BTC is still trading below some important moving averages, suggesting that the bulls have not fully regained control. * MACD and OBV remain tilted to the downside, while the RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone but has not confirmed a new uptrend. 2. Key Price Zones * Strong Support: 62,800–63.2Today's midday news overall presents a pattern of "improved regulatory expectations, but short-term capital pressure." BlackRock publicly supports the CLARITY Act, indicating increased recognition of the crypto regulatory framework by large institutions, but the U.S. Senate has postponed deliberation, meaning the policy benefits' implementation timeline is further delayed.
On the capital side, Bitwise has sold HYPE again, putting short-term price pressure on it; BlackRock has transferred a large amount of BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime, and whether it will sell later remains to be seen. Meanwhile, trade.xyz's trading data hit a record high, reflecting continued growth in on-chain derivatives market activity.
Overall, the industry's long-term compliance direction remains unchanged, but the gold target price has been raised, Japan has entered an interest rate-dominated phase, and with the regulatory agenda delayed, short-term risk appetite may be suppressed. The crypto market should remain cautious of institutional capital fluctuations and high-level volatility in the short term and avoid blindly chasing price increases. Last night, US stocks had actually stabilized, and this morning the Korean market still opened higher. But today Korea was truly in a tough spot, dropping over 10% again during trading, dropping 20% in two days and touching the annual moving average. Since the high on June 19, it has already fallen more than 40%. After today's drop, the South Korean index wiped out the gains from the second quarter. The recent drop in the past two days definitely killed out many funds chasing highs in Q2. There was no decent rebound during the session, which is a characteristic of passive selling that continues to sell. A positive point is that the Korean market recovered a significant drop in the afternoon, rebounding 6 points intraday, indicating bottom-fishing funds have entered the market. Historically, many markets have experienced similar deleveraging volatility. Everyone is comparing this to the A-share market in June 2015, which basically stopped the first round of declines at the annual moving average. This time, the volatility in South Korea is even more intense than last time, but judging by the extent of the decline, it is already quite substantial. South Korean retail investors have been deeply hurt this time. Everyone feels the government should step in to rescue the market, but in reality, in recent days, apart from restricting leveraged ETF products, the government has taken no action. Today, South Korea's Minister of Finance apologized at the National Assembly for launching a single equity leveraged ETF without sufficient due diligence. This formal apology already signals a policy outcome, and let's see if any effective actions will emerge in the coming days. This round of volatility has certainly led to market adjustments in storage expectations, but short-term EPS should not pose major issues. Yesterday, SK Hynix disclosed its second-quarter results, with revenue of 79 trillion Korean won and operating profitBitcoin holds above $64,000 ahead of the Fed's G time Bitcoin rose by about 0.75% and continues to trade above $64,000 as the market awaits an interest rate decision from the Fed. Although oil prices have cooled, inflation of 4.1% still makes the possibility of the Fed maintaining a tough stance cannot be ruled out. In my opinion, the fact that BTC remains stable before an important macro event shows that demand is still present. However, the message from the Fed will be the deciding factor in whether Bitcoin has enough momentum to break out or will continue to fluctuate in[Building on the Edge of a Cliff: Debts Google and Meta Dare Not Disclose]
The valuation narrative for AI infrastructure by Google and major tech companies is relatively cautious, focusing not on whether data center construction continues, but on whether financing obligations, capital expenditures, and future cash returns can be fully recognized by the market. If debt is detached from the traditional financial statement perspective, the pricing of risk in valuations may be insufficient.
The material mentions that in August 2025, multiple companies with "Beignet" in their names were registered in Delaware, followed by Meta building a data center named Hyperion in Louisiana and borrowing $27.3 billion for the project. The core question raised by the article is that such financing arrangements may not be directly or intuitively visible on the companies' balance sheets.
For AI builders like Google and Meta, the market is usually willing to pay a premium for computing power expansion and long-term growth, but the premise is a clear path to return on investment. If data center financing relies more on complex entities or off-balance-sheet arrangements, it may reduce the visibility of reporting pressure in the short term but also increase investors' difficulty in assessing the true capital constraints.
Going forward, attention should be paid to whether companies disclose data center financing, lease commitments, and capital expenditure returns more transparently, and whether AI revenue growth can cover the funds needed for continued expansion. If returns lag behind investments, hidden financing risks are more likely to become a factor compressing valuations.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. [South Korea Plans to Enact Crypto Legislation Covering Stablecoins and CEXs]
The regulatory narrative for South Korean stablecoins and centralized exchanges is positive, but policy benefits have yet to materialize; for now, we expect gradual improvement. If the comprehensive bill can clearly define the boundaries between issuance, circulation, and platform operations, it will help in the long run reduce participants' discount to regulatory uncertainty.
The Financial Services Commission of Korea plans to draft a comprehensive bill covering stablecoin and cryptocurrency exchanges, covering stablecoin issuance and circulation, digital asset business rules, exchange access, information disclosure, internal controls, and system resilience standards. MPs are also considering abolishing the 22% crypto asset tax originally scheduled for 2027.
The market may first trade in expectations of tax relief and institutional clarification, but both are still in the drafting or consideration stage and cannot be taken as fait accompli in advance. For stablecoins, clear rules can improve the predictability of compliant issuance and circulation; For CEXs, access and internal control requirements also mean that compliance costs and competitive thresholds will rise simultaneously.
It is necessary to track the specific provisions of the bill, the timeline for progress, and whether tax arrangements have truly entered the formal legislative process. If regulatory requirements are significantly raised but supporting space is insufficient, some platforms and business models may still face adjustment pressure first.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.Tonight, the real tension is not Microsoft's shareholders. But Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC, Broadcom, and even the entire AI industry chain. Because the market no longer cares about how much Microsoft earned this quarter. Everyone is waiting for a number—whether to keep investing in AI next year. Over the past two years, Microsoft has been one of the world's largest AI buyers. Every additional capital expenditure means more GPUs, more HBMs, more servers, and more data center orders; Conversely, if Microsoft starts slowing down its investment pace, the entire AI industry chain will be repriced. Recently, even though Google, SK Hynix, and Corning have delivered good results, their stock prices have remained under pressure, all pointing to the same question: Can AI continue to burn money? So tonight's release is not just Microsoft's financial report. but rather the confidence of the entire AI industry chain for the coming year. Tonight, if Microsoft steps on the gas, AI may continue to sprint. If the brakes are hit, the entire AI industry chain will have to be revalued. 1. US Stock AI Track Token Contract (OKX X-Perps) AI Computing Power/Chip Hardware $NVDA NVIDIA | AI GPU Leader $AMD Chaowei | AI Accelerator Alternatives $MU Micron Technology | HBM Memory Chips $INTC Intel | Server Chips $MRVL Mywell | Network Chips $SKHYNIX SK Hynix | Seven Giants in Storage HBM AI Internet & Large Model Technology $META Meta | Open Source Large[Federal Reserve Decision and Microsoft Meta Earnings Incoming]
The short-term direction for Microsoft is currently unclear, so it is best to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The Federal Reserve decision and earnings report landing on the same day will make the market more focused on testing whether AI capital expenditure is truly growth investment or if it has started to erode return expectations. A single positive or negative factor could be amplified by macroeconomic narratives.
Information shows that the Federal Reserve decision will be announced during tonight's U.S. stock market session, while Microsoft's earnings report is scheduled after the market closes; meanwhile, short positions ahead of Microsoft's earnings have risen to nearly a ten-year high. A high short interest does not inherently mean the stock price will rise, but it indicates that market doubts about AI capital expenditure translating into revenue growth have accumulated significantly.
The key in trading is not the earnings numbers themselves, but the gap between market expectations and management's statements. If revenue, business demand, or future outlook can address the return on investment concerns, the crowded cautious expectations may ease; otherwise, even if capital expenditure continues to expand, it may be interpreted as a delay in the profit realization cycle.
It is important to pay close attention to the guidance after the earnings report, AI business-related statements, and the market's immediate reaction to the interest rate path. A high short interest environment will amplify volatility but cannot replace verification of fundamental performance.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. $SPCX
Advanced technology does not inherently guarantee a good business model
As I reviewed SpaceX's various business these past few days, I couldn't help but think of one sentence
SpaceX achieved rocket recovery in 2015 and successfully reused rockets in the following years. However, at this stage, advanced technology only allowed SpaceX to compete for a share of the "traditional space industry," with twenty or thirty launches per year, essentially a transfer of industry stock
Only after Musk decided to advance Starlink and find a new incremental market for the capacity revolution brought by rocket recycling and reuse did SpaceX's leading technology truly begin to explode, with annual launch volume, orbital launch quality, and tangible cash flow all growing explosively
Looking back at history, there are many such examples: the steam engine requires technology from industries like textiles, transportation, and forging to become the Industrial Revolution; the internal combustion engine also needs solutions from industries like automobiles. The internet lacks various forms of advertising, entertainment, or gaming, and may only be a military connection technology
Advanced technology is not inherently commercially implemented; in this regard, Musk is truly a top-tier genius[The wave of leveraged ETF liquidations in South Korea is nearing its end]
The short-term risk appetite for the South Korean stock market and leveraged ETFs is slightly positive, but it is not advisable to directly equate "the end of deleveraging" with confirmation of a new upward trend. If most of the previous forced liquidations have indeed been completed, the easing of marginal selling pressure will improve the market trading environment, but whether prices can strengthen still depends on subsequent incremental buying.
JPMorgan stated that since mid-June, the South Korean market has undergone intense deleveraging, with about 90% of related hedge fund operations completed, and the leveraged ETF fund size has dropped to $17 billion after the correction. Institutions also believe that current positions in the South Korean stock market are more attractive, with valuations low and earnings growth momentum strong.
The main expectation gap lies in the market possibly having priced in "leveraged funds will continue to be sold passively"; if this concern eases, valuation and earnings fundamentals will more easily resume their influence. However, the inflow into leveraged ETFs has only significantly slowed, which does not mean the market has gained sustained new capital support.
Going forward, it is important to observe whether the South Korean market can maintain trading volume and price resilience without forced position reductions, and whether leveraged product funds continue to stabilize. If rapid outflows reoccur, the judgment that deleveraging has ended may need to be revised.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. 【图文观察｜油价传导】北京时间21:46，WTI 83.2660美元（+6.32%），Brent 86.8100美元（+5.93%），价差约3.54美元/桶。
观察视角：这里不单看油价涨跌，而看它对通胀预期、美元流动性和风险资产估值的传导。若油价上行但美元同步走强，加密资产反而可能承压。
金十背景：2026年7月29日金十期货早餐：非正式停火告吹，伊朗今晨向美军基地发射导弹，原油大涨——梳理每日行情，把握市场动态，各位听众朋友早上好，今天是2026年7月29日星期三。欢迎收听《期货早高峰》。期货早高峰，百万期货精英的首…
验证点：WTI守住20日均线且价差稳定，偏区间整理；若价差扩大并跌回均线下方，需求压力会重新被定价。
风险提示：OPEC+口径、库存或地缘事件若超预期，上述传导观察需要重估。仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。🔥 CORE Daily | From $6 to $0.02—will this "Bitcoin sidechain" bounce back or go to zero?
Guys, CORE is trading at 0.0179 USDT today, with a market cap of only $22.31 million, ranking 764th on the CoinGecko leaderboard. From the all-time high of $6.14 in February 2023, the drawdown is 99.6%—yes, you read that right, -99.6%. Anyone who bought at the high end now has only a fraction left in their account.
But the more "fairy coins" they are, the easier it is to create stories.
🎯 Why am I staring at it now?
🔥 First, oversold to the extreme. The 14-day RSI dropped to 13.71, signaling a strong technical oversold condition. A 16.61% drop in 7 days, a 21.03% drop in 30 days, and a plunge of 81.85% in 180 days—the losses that needed to be cut have basically been cut off. With a thin order book down to $10,000, you can leverage 5% volatility.
🔥 Second, native Bitcoin staking has truly been implemented. In July 2026, the world's first BTC native staking will successfully run on Core Chain—not the custody scheme of WBTC, but BTC holders staking directly on the Bitcoin network to earn interest, without letting go of asset control. $150 million in self-custody BTC staking has already been deposited on-chain, which is a genuine narrative of the "Bitcoin smart layer."
🔥 Third, the economic model shifts from "burning" to "earning." At the end of June, the official company cut the original fee burns and replaced it with a new flywheel for ecosystem revenue buyback CORE—SatPay payment card fees, AMP asset management fees, and lstBTC minting fees, all of which are burned in the buyback pool. In July, SatPay launched its global public beta, with the institutional version launching in late July, and after the mainnet gas upgrade in August, buyback efforts further increased.
🔥 Fourth, AI × the hidden threads of privacy. Core Foundation has partnered with Z Protocol to build a privacy finance stack for AI agents. The AI proxy market is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2032, with over 20,000 on-chain proxies. CORE aims to be the "Bitcoin settlement layer" of the AI era.
📉 How to view the market?
Short-term support is at 0.015–0.018, with the first rebound target at 0.0227 (7-day moving average), with strong resistance at 0.0265–0.0269. If it doesn't rise above 0.019 on high volume, any rebound is just playing tricks; If it effectively breaks below 0.015, then aim for the historical low of 0.012.
⚠️ To put it bluntly: CORE's liquidity has dried up, with daily trading volume only around $2.8 million. Large amounts of capital flowing in and out are just exploiting leeks. Early private and team tokens are still unlocking at a steady pace, with selling pressure persisting for a long time. Binance has yet to go up, and before the main compliance channel is opened, don't expect a major rally.
💡 My judgment
CORE is now a typical high-risk reversal gamble—technical oversold + ecosystem narrative online + buyback mechanism activation, all three happening simultaneously, but any one link (TVL growth stagnates, SatPay adoption is weak, unlocking sales spiral out of control), the price is heading for zero.
It's not BTC, not ETH, and certainly not OKB. This is a bullet, not a bottom chamber. If you want to bet on a rebound, keep your position at 1%-2% of crypto assets. If the stop-loss level is 0.015, break below and exit—don't talk about faith.
In short: a 2-cent CORE is either the starting point for next-generation BTCFi or a new gravestone in the L1 graveyard—it's all scripted and depends on whether you dare to take the table.
CORE #CORE日报 #CoreDAO #BTCFi #比特币质押 #SatPay #代币回购销毁 #仙币反转 #L1公链 #AI代理隐私 #ZProtocol #超卖反弹 #加密星球 #OKX星球 #高风险标的 沙哑鹰声来袭！美联储今夜决议，到底敢不敢加息？
$BTC 北京时间周四凌晨 2:00，美联储 7 月利率决议重磅落地，2:30 沃什召开新闻发布会
$ETH 当下市场定价清晰：维持利率不变概率七成，加息概率三成，典型三七开博弈
很多人只盯着 “加不加息” 这个结果，却忽略本次最大风险 ——就算不加息，也可能走出偏紧鹰派行情
两种情景推演：
基准情景（70%）：维持利率不变，但发言偏鹰
不落地加息动作，但持续保留后续加息选项，淡化降息预期。市场短期先反弹，反弹就是高空机会，流动性收紧预期持续压制风险资产
黑天鹅情景（30%）：意外加息 25 基点
直接引爆避险抛压，大饼、姨太 等风险币种会迎来快速下杀，空头直接受益
若维持利率 + 强硬鹰派讲话 → 反弹高空为主，若意外加息 → 顺势追空
若维持利率且释放鸽派信号，才可以短暂博弈反弹
迷雾行情，管住仓位，凌晨见证鹰声真假#美联储即将公布利率决议 #银行业联名施压，CLARITY稳定币条款或再生变 #银行业联名施压，CLARITY稳定币条款或再生变 $CORE Many holders are full of doubts: the Bitcoin grid layout is advancing, native BTC staking is being implemented, overseas business negotiations continue, and ecosystem revenue buyback narratives are complete. The long-term logic of the sector is flawless, but the market has been fluctuating and bottoming out for a long time, with no sign of a major rally. Today, we will thoroughly sort out the core contradictions all at once. 🚨 Narrative does not equal market trends, and expectations do not equal incremental capital! CORE BTCFi's long-term story has not collapsed, but it is currently in a vacuum window for positive news to be realized, with the market continuously exchanging shares. Never rely solely on long-term narratives to hold out and wait for a breakthrough. To start a trend, multiple conditions must be met, and a single theme is hard to trigger a trend. I. Five Core Suppressive Factors 1. Sector Landscape: The BTCFi industry is still in its early stages, with low capital attention. The vast majority of native BTC holders tend to hoard coins without moving and have little willingness to participate in BTC staking in DeFi; The overall TVL scale of the BTCFi track is limited, with a huge gap compared to the Ethereum ecosystem. Currently, market funds are concentrated in AI and RWA hotspots, causing the BTC ecosystem to temporarily experience a capital slump; Multiple BTC Layers compete in parallel, with funds continuously diverted, making it difficult to concentrate incremental buying on CORE separately. 2. Macro external pressure (the biggest variable at this stage) The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is pending, and overall market risk appetite is becoming more conservative. Currently, it is a stock game market with severe market fragmentation: funds cluster together with a few strong targets, while most counterfeits continue to be withdrawnZcash surprise today: a privacy pool worth $1.7 billion was directly shut down, causing a sharp drop in on-chain security levels. User data protection mechanisms are under pressure, and the market quickly interprets this as a possible prelude to a major adjustment in Zcash's anonymity architecture.
Many are starting to panic: is Zcash deliberately weakening its core privacy advantage? After all, the security pool is the fundamental infrastructure for anonymous transactions. Once the pool shrinks, mixing efficiency and anti-tracking capabilities will be compromised, and the privacy protection for existing users may directly decline.
The real highlight of this event is: what is the Zcash team really planning? If it’s just a compromise for compliance, it would be equivalent to self-sabotage, putting pressure on the coin price and ecosystem; but if it’s a technical preparation for the next generation privacy solution, such as upgrading to a more efficient zero-knowledge proof architecture, then this "pool closure" might be a necessary growing pain.
Currently, market sentiment is cautious, and increased short-term volatility for ZEC is highly likely. For the privacy sector, this news also reminds everyone that the choice of technology path and governance risks for privacy coins have always been a sword hanging overhead.
Do you judge this move by Zcash as a strategic transformation or self-sabotage? 1. Bitcoin ETFs: The continuous rise was cut off, and the recovery strength is pitifully weak
Let's first look at the hard data. On July 23 and 24, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a combined outflow of over $465 million, ending the previous seven consecutive trading days of net inflows. Then on the 27th, there was another outflow of about $11.64 million, totaling $476.9 million over three days. By July 29, there had been four consecutive days of net outflows, with a single-day outflow of $49.75 million.
BlackRock's IBIT was the main bleeding point—contributing about $415 million outflow in just two days. Looking only at IBIT, it reduced holdings by 3,511 BTC last week, which is even more than the entire sector's net outflow of 3,170 BTC, indicating that small inflows from other products (such as FBTC, ARKB) are just a drop in the bucket.
More importantly, the recovery progress: as of mid-July, Bitcoin ETFs had cumulatively outflowed $8.2 billion, but only about 3.3% has been replenished so far. Although there were three consecutive weeks of net inflows (the first three weeks of July saw inflows of $197 million, $75.67 million, and $33.79 million respectively), the scale of inflows has halved week by week.
The decoupling between price and capital flow is noteworthy: despite continuous ETF outflows, BTC still rose about 4% last week, hovering around 63,900. This indicates that the spot market still has some support, but the supply pressure at the ETF level remains a persistent concern.
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2. Ethereum ETFs: Beneficiaries of capital rotation
Ethereum shows a completely different picture. As of the week ending July 24, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $103.8 million, about three times that of Bitcoin ETFs ($33.9 million), outperforming for the second consecutive week.
The difference mainly comes from BlackRock—ETHA attracted $96.3 million in a single week, while IBIT from the same company saw a net outflow of $95.5 million. In the seven days ending July 28, ETH ETFs inflowed 37,959 ETH (about $71.17 million), while BTC ETFs outflowed 3,170 BTC (about $200 million) in the same period.
However, July was not all smooth sailing; on July 25, Ethereum ETFs had a single-day outflow of $70.62 million, ending five consecutive days of inflows. The cumulative inflow for July was about $337 million, still a net positive overall.
In terms of AUM, Bitcoin ETFs hold $76.2 billion, while Ethereum only $9.7 billion, a ratio exceeding 7:1—saying "ETH will replace BTC" is pure exaggeration, but the marginal preference of incremental funds is indeed tilting toward ETH.
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3. The macro environment is the real "master switch"
The core driver of this round of ETF outflows is not crypto itself, but macro factors. Before the July FOMC meeting, the market's expectation probability for a 25bp Fed rate hike was about 34%, with Castle Securities even betting on an "unexpected rate hike." Geopolitically, tensions between the US and Iran pushed oil prices back above $100, heating inflation expectations. The Nasdaq weakened, bond yields rose to 4.7%, and risk assets overall came under pressure.
In other words, institutions are systematically reducing risk exposure rather than specifically bearish on Bitcoin.
1. This is not a trend reversal but noise in a volatile recovery. The $8.2 billion outflow has only been replenished by 3.3%, so it is too early to say "stabilization."
2. IBIT is the barometer. It is the smoothest channel for institutional entry and exit; continuous outflows from IBIT mean institutions are not yet ready for a large-scale return.
3. The capital rotation between ETH/BTC is real, but the volume gap means it is more of a "marginal signal" than a "structural reversal."
4. The most critical variable is the Federal Reserve. The July 29 rate decision is the biggest short-term catalyst—if a rate hike occurs, ETF outflows may continue; if no change, it could trigger short-covering.
Key observation points (COINOTAG engine data): BTC's recent support is at $63,799 (SMA 50 + POC resonance), resistance at $67,370 (LVN + Fibonacci 0.382). Current RSI is 50.31, MACD is bearish-leaning, momentum is in a neutral to weak range. The Fear & Greed Index is 29, still in the "fear" zone. SKHX shorts are cleaning up on Hyperliquid as Hynix slides... Lookonchain has one whale up over $10m plus $1.23m in funding.
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Today's market was quite divided—$SNDK -6.5%. Semiconductors are bleeding like a river, $QQQ is also bearish, but $BTC $ETH managed to hold firm and push upward. Don't rush to call the cow, $IBIT has already become a traitor.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,206 +1.80% $ETH 1,904 +1.98%
$QQQ -0.97% $SPY +0.24% $IBIT -1.71%
$DXY +0.01% $GLD -1.40%
Talking about the situation: Hormuz is still causing trouble, and crude oil is stuck on inflation expectations; US Treasuries and the Fed continue to suppress valuations, and the exchange rate line is not a backdrop; $DXY a slight stiffening move can push risk assets back.
Now, let's talk about the market: $ETH is actually more elastic than $BTC, with some betting on a recovery in risk appetite; $QQQ Not enough, and money is still shrinking toward defense; $IBIT Weaker than spot prices, ETFs have softened, and this divergence looks rather weak; $DXY Holding firm without falling is the greatest unfriendly to risk assets; $GLD dropped more than a point, with risk aversion cooling down, but it didn't see money and quickly rushed back into the crypto world.
Don't chase highs; whoever shows weakness first at this position should set the direction and wait for a clear signal to beat.
#美联储即将公布利率决议油价再次拉升，市场真正担心的，不只是中东局势
特朗普最新表示，美国将对伊朗采取军事回应。
消息传出后，市场避险情绪迅速升温，美股期货走弱，国际油价快速反弹，布伦特原油再次走强。
我认为，市场如此敏感，并不是因为一句讲话本身，而是担心地缘冲突升级可能影响全球能源供应。
在全球市场中，最先反映地缘政治风险的往往不是股市，而是原油。
一旦市场担心原油供应受到影响，油价就会率先上涨，而油价上涨又会重新推升市场对通胀的担忧。
这也是为什么投资者会迅速重新评估美联储未来的政策路径。
如果能源价格持续走高，通胀回落的速度可能放缓，市场对宽松政策的预期也可能受到影响。
对风险资产意味着什么？
对于比特币、美股等风险资产来说，短期最大的影响并非事件本身，而是市场风险偏好的变化。
当地缘风险升温时，资金通常会更加谨慎，市场波动也容易放大。
再加上本周正值美联储利率决议，市场同时面对地缘政治和货币政策两大不确定因素，短期波动率大概率仍将维持高位。
不过，也需要保持冷静。
政治人物的强硬表态并不一定意味着局势一定会进一步升级，市场最终仍会根据后续实际行动重新定价。
这几天，与其盯着每一条突发新闻，不如重点观察几个信号：
• 油价是否持续走高，还是快速回落；
• 黄金、美元等避险资产是否继续获得资金流入；
• 比特币在风险事件下的承接能力是否增强；
• 美联储是否释放新的政策信号。
真正决定趋势的，不是消息标题，而是资金最终流向哪里。
消息影响情绪，油价影响通胀预期，资金决定市场趋势。当宏观风险与货币政策同时扰动市场时，控制仓位、关注资金流向，比猜测每一条新闻更重要。$BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 $ETH at $1910, the Federal Reserve's verdict tonight!
First, look at the surface: the rebound is in place, waiting for direction.
From the low of 1500-1600 at the end of June, it has surged to 1980, a 25% rebound. Now it has pulled back to 1910, with the monthly chart still up 20%. The 24-hour volatility is extremely narrow, and trading volume has clearly shrunk. The 1850-1900 zone has been defended effectively multiple times, RSI is neutral at 50-60, and MACD is converging. Either there will be a volume breakout above 2000 to start the second wave, or a break below 1850 to retest 1750, with no middle ground.
First thing: tonight's FOMC could be the "judgment day" for ETH.
The market expects rates to remain unchanged, but the real risk lies in the wording.
There have been two dovish signals before, and the market was rescued each time. But if tonight's statement is hawkish—implying more rate hikes this year and no rush to cut rates—BTC will crash first as a warning, and ETH, as a high-beta altcoin, will fall even harder.
Conversely, if the statement is dovish, acknowledging economic slowdown and hinting at an easing path—
ETH will be the most elastic spring.
Second thing: ETFs are bottom-fishing, staking is locked, but retail investors are panicking.
Spot ETH ETFs have had net inflows for several consecutive weeks, sometimes even outperforming BTC ETFs. Institutions like BitMine are increasing holdings and staking ETH. The staking rate has reached 32-33%—nearly one-third of the supply is locked. The exit queue is very short; no one wants to sell.
Even more importantly: large-scale staking migration and optimization by Lido and others is underway, and institutional-grade staking yield products are being launched. Some ETF products have started supporting staking yields—this means ETH now has the attribute of a "yield-bearing asset."
Third thing: technically, ETH has reached a point where it must take a stance.
The 1900 level is exactly the dividing line between bulls and bears.
If it holds 1850-1900 → forms a double bottom/rising wedge → after breaking 2000, target 2180.
If it fails to hold 1850 → retest 1800-1840 → even 1750.
Volume continues to shrink, the calm before the storm.
Key levels:
Resistance above: 1950-1970 → 2000 → 2100-2200
Support below: 1850-1900 → 1800-1840 → 1750
Fed dovish scenario:
Buy on pullback to 1900-1920, stop loss below 1850, target 2000-2100. Add positions on a volume breakout above 2000 aiming for 2180.
Fed hawkish scenario:
Wait for a dip to 1800-1850 to stabilize before buying; don’t bottom-fish halfway up the mountain. If it breaks below 1800, wait and watch for deeper support near 1750.
Mid-term holders:
As long as ETH does not break 1850, the holding logic remains unchanged. After breaking 2000, look for 2100-2200. If it breaks 1800, reduce positions to defend.$BTC $SKHYNIX Big Shot on 2x Leverage All-in on SK Hynix, Around 30 Yuan, Many Traders Say It's Bottomed—Is It Really Worth Buying?
Let's start with the facts:
But Bin didn't go all-in on 2x leverage for SK Hynix stocks; he went double long on the Hong Kong stock market with the price dropping to around 30 HKD, declaring, "If there's a big drop, you must dare to buy and use up the remaining bullets." After the news spread, a large number of short-term traders collectively turned bullish, and the market began discussing whether this was the short-term bottom.
⚠️ Two misconceptions must be clearly distinguished:
1. Big Shot Bottom-Fishing ≠ The Market Bottoms Out Immediately
He is doing long-term contrarian positioning, which can withstand a further 20%-30% pullback and bottoming out.
The risks of leveraged ETFs are completely different. If a double-leveraged product continues to plunge, it will suffer net asset value loss, and even if the stock price rebounds later, it may not be possible to recoup the investment.
2. A group of traders collectively bullish is a signal of emotional games, not a reversal signal
After a consecutive 60% plunge, oversold prices have led to strong expectations of a rebound, making it an extreme bull-bear contest in the short term.
The negative news has not been fully cleared yet:
High U.S. Treasury yields suppress valuations of long-term stocks, expectations for storage cycles are shaking, long-term pressure on domestic substitution, and Korean retail investors have not fully cleared out leveraged positions.
Two possibilities
✅ Optimistic scenario: short-term oversold rebound
Panic selling pressure was temporarily released, and bottom-fishing triggered a recovery rebound, which was a rebound during a decline with limited height.
❌ Pessimistic scenario: Downward relay
It was only the first wave of valuation sell-offs that ended, and after consolidating the bottom, it was re-examining the bottom. The 30 yuan mark is not the final bottom.
Summary of points
This can only be defined as: a game window after an overselling, and it cannot be directly concluded that the bottom has arrived.
Just because others dare to gamble with double leverage doesn't mean ordinary people are suited to follow the trend and bet on the bottom.
The bottom requires multiple signals to stabilize with shrinking volume, negative news to be realized, and a trend reversal to be confirmed. Relying solely on industry leaders and traders' bullish views cannot support a full reversal.$CORE If the Fed raises rates in the early hours of July 30, it will be bearish for CORE overall; Moreover, under the same macro shock, CORE's decline is likely to be significantly greater than BTC's.
1. Market Prediction in Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Rate hike as expected + Walsh's speech sends a hawkish signal (beware of maintaining high interest rates) [Greatest risk]
1. Macro logic: U.S. Treasury yields are rising, the dollar strengthens, market risk appetite is shrinking rapidly, and funds are fleeing high-risk knockoff assets.
2. CORE Market Performance:
- Rapid short-term decline, likely to hit new lows in the stage;
- BTC will be the first to come under pressure, followed by a collective crushing by other altcoins; CORE itself faces ongoing unlocked selling pressure, heavy trapped holdings, and a lack of incremental funds, making it difficult to break out of an independent rally;
- Project countermeasures: can only release new narratives for a short break, unable to counter macro panic; even minor rebounds trigger chip sell-offs.
3. Key Phenomenon: Positive narratives fail, staking users panic-exit in panic.
Scenario 2: Rate hike as expected, but the speech leans dovish (implying this is the last rate hike) [Neutral Volatility]
The classic market logic is: Buy rumor, Sell fact (Buy expectation, cash out and sell)
1. Short term: The moment news lands, there is a wave of decline to digest panic;
2. Medium to long-term: Funds begin to gamble on expectations of subsequent rate cuts, leading to BTC stabilizing and rebounding;
3. CORE Trend: Following BTC's passive recovery, the rebound strength will be much weaker than that of mainstream coins.
Major flaw: Even if the market recovers, CORE's internal pressure is continuously unlocked, exchange complaints risk persist, and narrative fulfillment challenges persist, making it difficult to reverse the rally. Most likely, it will be a weak rebound followed by another decline.
Scenario 3: Unexpectedly no rate hike (low probability) [Short-term Positive]
Large-cap risk assets are rebounding, with CORE following the pulse upward.
⚠️ However: the rebound is purely sentiment-driven and cannot change the internal fundamentals. After a brief rally, project teams will seize the rebound window to increase shipments, and after the rebound ends, the market will return to a bearish decline channel.
2. Why does CORE become weaker than BTC in a rate hike environment?
1. Asset stratification effect
When interest rates tighten liquidity, funds prioritize safe havens and only retain consensus assets like BTC; Funds will be withdrawn from narrative altcoins. The BTCFi track concept is a high-risk speculative theme, with funds prioritizing CORE sales.
2. Endogenous selling pressure amplifies macro negative factors
The decline of ordinary coins is a result of retail investors' long-short battles; The CORE stacking team continues to unlock zero-cost tokens. Once the market panics and falls, project teams won't actively support the market; if there is a rebound, they will sell off. If the price falls without support, it will accelerate the price downward.
3. No institutional long-term capital to support the situation
BTC has spot ETFs and large institutional funds; CORE relies on retail investors and community beliefs, lacks long-term holdings by large institutions, and lacks support during panic markets.
4. Multiple Potential Negative Factors (Current Unique Variables)
Currently, a large number of users have submitted market manipulation complaints to OKX, and the exchange's risk control continues to flag the risks. Macro panic combined with the coin's own negative expectations creates a double suppression.
3. Timing Rhythm Prediction (Market Practice)
1~2 days before the decision: funds anticipate the game in advance, causing increased volatility; If the market prices in rate hikes early, it will come under pressure ahead of time;
2. Within 2 hours of resolution announcement + Powell's press conference: highest volatility throughout the day, prone to insertion rally;
3. 3~7 days after the decision: Digest policy expectations and decide on the medium-term direction.
⚠️ Important Notice: Speculative cryptocurrency trading is considered an illegal financial activity in China. The following is only market logic analysis and does not constitute any buy, sell, or hold advice. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations
$XSKHY SK Hynix reported a record high in its financial report, but its stock price plunged, even triggering a consecutive circuit breaker in Korean stocks in July. Some think it's the AI bubble that has burst, but I don't think so.
In my view, this round of decline is essentially profit-taking by funds + overly high market expectations, rather than a reversal in industry logic.
SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit surged 557%, setting a record but still falling short of market expectations. The capital market has never been judged by how good the performance is, but by whether it exceeds expectations. When everyone believes it will deliver a perfect score, even if it only scores 98, funds will choose to realize profits.
More importantly, SK Hynix's HBM business accounts for a higher proportion, and the biggest beneficiaries of this round of price increases are actually traditional DRAM and NAND price hikes. In other words, although the company is positioned in the core AI track, it has not fully benefited from the storage price increases, causing the market to worry whether future profit growth can continue to exceed expectations.
But the message released by the call was a completely different matter.
Management clearly stated that they have not seen a slowdown in AI investment; HBM4 has already been mass-produced and shipped, long-term supply agreements with major customers are generally locked in for five years, and profitability is expected to continue improving after HBM4 scales up in the second half of the year. Industry demands remain unchanged, orders remain unchanged, and technological leadership remains unchanged.
So, I think this is more like a valuation reversal rather than an industry peak.
In the past few months, the AI hardware sector has surged so fast, with SK Hynix, Nvidia, and the storage industry chain all accumulating large unrealized gains. Even a slight drop below expectations is enough to serve as a reason for institutions to concentrate profits, followed by further amplification of quantitative and leveraged funds, ultimately evolving into a series of circuit breakers in the Korean stock market.
Personally, I think in the short term, this is capital realizing profits; in the long run, the logic of AI storage hasn't changed. What will truly determine the next round of the market is not this financial report, but the pace of volume growth in HBM4 in the coming months, and whether tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will continue to expand their AI capital expenditures. As long as capital expenditure doesn't turn around, I still believe the AI industry chain is just experiencing high volatility, not a major bear market.The sharp declines of Samsung and SK Hynix are not due to fundamental deterioration, but rather driven by investor sentiment under high leverage
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix hold over 50% weights in the KOSPI index.
When both stocks fall simultaneously, investors have almost nowhere to escape.
After South Korea's total credit financing balance hit a historic high of 38.6 trillion won on June 24, it quickly retreated amid the sharp liquidation wave triggered by the tech stock crash.
High leverage + forced liquidations + investor sentiment have driven this accelerated decline, not fundamental deterioration.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations The screen was still lit, but the BTC 15-minute moving average suddenly twitched, as if someone had gently poked it in the waist. Do you know what the market is quietly doing now? I just finished cutting the cumulative trading volume deltas of several mainstream exchanges and discovered a rather interesting gap. Buy orders from Binance and OKX are still piling up, like two walls, but sell orders on Coinbase suddenly become heavier. For the first time, there has been such a clear divergence in the flow of funds among the three major exchanges. This is actually more worth watching than simple price fluctuations. Because who is buying and who is selling determines the path of the sector's strength and weakness going forward. - From a sector strength perspective, Binance and OKX have clearly shifted their preference toward certain altcoins, while Coinbase's net selling is mainly concentrated in BTC and ETH spot trading. - This means that short-term sentiment dominance is in the hands of Asian sessions and Asian exchanges, who prefer to chase high-β narrative coins. - But Coinbase's selling pressure is an invisible risk: it represents domestic U.S. capital reducing positions, possibly as an early hedge against macro or regulatory conditions. So right now, the market is actually trading a subtle rhythm gap: Asian buying is holding up sentiment, but US selling is quietly draining liquidity. If this gap continues to widen, altcoins will first follow Binance in a surge, then be pulled back by Coinbase's selling pressure. Bullish outlook: If BTC can hold above Binance's dense buy order zone, the altcoin rotation will continue, especially those currently activeNvidia has recently revealed that it has partnered with SK Group for AI cooperation exceeding $500 billion, and plans to provide OpenAI with a $250 billion guarantee.
The market is concerned about the "revolving cash flow" model for AI capital expenditure—where revenue growth heavily depends on downstream clients' financing capabilities. If the financing environment changes, the entire AI spending chain will face contraction
#美联储即将公布利率决议 Let's do some psychological comfort for everyone.
I have extracted the historical forward P/E ratio curves of the Nasdaq 100 QQQ and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOXX over the past 10 years.
Currently, the QQQ Forward PE is 22x, while its average over the past 10 years is 26x, which means it is now in a relatively undervalued range. Looking at this AI bull market, the current valuation is only second to the tariff war in April last year and the US-Iran war in March this year.
Currently, the SOXX Forward PE is 21.4x, and its average over the past 10 years is around 22x, which is relatively neutral. But if we look at the average valuation level of this AI bull market, it has also reached a relatively undervalued range.
There are two conclusions:
1️⃣ This is not the time to cut losses, especially for stocks with fundamentals validated by earnings reports.
2️⃣ If you have cash bullets, you should continue to buy. The 2022 bear market low was an extreme position, when the Nasdaq Forward PE was 20x. A few key events today to understand the market logic
1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight, the whole market is watching
The market predicts a 20% chance of a rate hike. Funds are reluctant to take large positions betting on direction, so today's price fluctuations are small. Everyone is waiting for the news to come out tonight before making moves. If a rate hike happens, short-term pressure is very likely; if rates remain unchanged, the market will likely surge.
2. US regulatory bills have no chance in the short term, easing bearish sentiment
The previously anticipated CLARITY crypto regulatory bill has been postponed by the Senate vote and is unlikely to pass before recess. No strict new regulations will be implemented in the short term, market panic has eased, and no large sell-offs have occurred.
3. Institutional moves are polarized
Morgan Stanley launched new Ethereum and SOL spot ETFs with staking yields, traditional banks continue to expand in the Ethereum sector; listed company Strive added 80 BTC, accumulating over 3,200 BTC since May, showing long-term funds are steadily accumulating Bitcoin.
Additionally, the inflow of stablecoin USDC to exchanges turned positive for the first time in two months, indicating more US retail and institutional funds are entering to buy the dip.
4. On-chain and industry highlights
① Zcash completed a major mainnet upgrade, enhancing the security of $1.7 billion in privacy assets;
② Well-known exchange Hyperliquid will unlock 3.3 million tokens tomorrow, posing short-term selling pressure risk; holders should be cautious;
③ Ethereum validator exit queue continues to clear, reducing on-chain selling pressure and supporting ETH price.
5. Reference from external stock markets
South Korea's storage giants Samsung and Hynix have plunged consecutively, triggering a circuit breaker in the Korean stock market. The core reason is the listing of ChangXin Memory breaking the overseas storage monopoly; however, the crypto market was not dragged down, with funds flowing into crypto assets for hedging.
Personal suggestions:
1. Avoid heavy short-term bets on the Fed decision; volatility will be high when the news comes out tonight. Reduce leverage to avoid liquidation spikes;
2. Funds are clearly tilting towards Ethereum. Under similar market conditions, ETH has higher elasticity than BTC, but the 2000 level is a key resistance. Failure to break through will lead to a pullback and consolidation;
3. Small-cap altcoins are very risky now. Funds only cluster around the leaders. Do not casually buy unknown small coins on dips;
4. From a long-term perspective, institutional ETFs continue to expand in the crypto sector. Regulation is only delayed, not canceled. The overall trend is intact. Buying top coins on big dips is more reliable than chasing rallies
$ETH 🚨 Crypto Market Update – Today (July 29, 2026)
📌 All eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC). Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are trading cautiously ahead of the interest rate decision. This is expected to be today's biggest market-moving event.In 2022, everyone was expecting the 10-12K level, but now it's 🤔 stuck at the $40k level
Let's continue with the example from 2022; There was a buying opportunity at 16K, but they still wanted to go 15-20% lower, so they couldn't buy from the $16K level, but only bought after it doubled near $30K.
Friends, don't forget, no one can pinpoint the bottom or top, but we can make amazing profits from close levels. Your goal should never be to grasp the very bottom or the top; that would be a huge mistake.
$BTC and $ETH, am I waiting for the bottom? Yes, but are these places good for buying in batches? I think so too. If you want to wait, you can keep waiting for even lower ones, but I'll buy coins I like in these areas, then trade and hodl!
Also, stay calm—don't use the money you need to enter this market, or you'll regret it!Apple officially surpassed Nvidia, reclaiming the top spot as the world's most valuable company. This change of the "stock king" occurred at the close of trading on July 27 (Monday) Eastern Time.
📊 Key data: Apple ≈ 4.95 trillion vs Nvidia ≈ 4.76 trillion
· Apple (AAPL): Stock price rose 1.17% to a record high of $336.91, with market value surpassing $4.95 trillion. On July 28 (Tuesday), it even briefly hit the $5 trillion milestone intraday for the first time.
· Nvidia (NVDA): Stock price plunged 4.99%, with market value falling back to $4.76 trillion.
· Gap: The market value difference between the two is about $190 billion.
🔄 Key background: This is Apple's first return to the global number one market value since April 2025. On July 17, Apple briefly overtook Nvidia but then yielded the position again. This is the second time this month and the first time confirmed at the close.
🧠 Deep logic: The AI narrative is being "repriced"
The core of this reversal is the market's reassessment of "how AI makes money":
· Nvidia's "selling shovels" logic loosens: The market is beginning to worry that the huge capital expenditures on AI infrastructure may not generate matching returns. Reports say Nvidia is discussing providing $250 billion in financing support to OpenAI, which has reignited concerns about "circular financing." Nvidia has only risen 4% year-to-date, while Apple has surged 24%.
· Apple's "light AI" strategy becomes an advantage: Apple has been restrained in AI capital spending, preferring to "rent computing power" rather than build infrastructure itself. This "asset-light" strategy has turned into an advantage. Its capital expenditures have declined for three consecutive quarters, and it has successfully passed storage chip costs onto consumers through brand premium and ecosystem stickiness. $BTC $ETH #苹果公司市值重回全球首位，超越英伟达 Market leverage hits record highs, but the favorite stock among U.S. retail investors has fallen 13%
Among the baskets favored by U.S. retail investors tracked by Goldman Sachs, they have fallen about 13% so far this month. If this decline continues at the end of the month, it will mark the worst single-month performance since 2022.
But just in the first two months, these stocks rose about 17% and 16% respectively, with a cumulative gain of nearly 36% over two months. In just one month, the favorite stocks among American retail investors have shifted from being among the strongest directions in the market to the biggest losers.
These stocks are mainly concentrated in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, memory chips, cybersecurity, and other highly volatile technology stocks. Representative stocks mentioned in public reports include AMD, Micron, and CrowdStrike, while broader retail favorites also include Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, and IonQ.
The common traits of these stocks are clear: they all had high gains, high valuations, and high volatility, which fueled FOMO among retail investors.
In the previous article, I mentioned that U.S. margin financing and securities lending debt has reached a record $1.53 trillion, and brokerage account net credit balances have dropped to negative $1.061 trillion. This indicates that when popular retail stocks start to fall, margin positions and leverage in the market did not decrease simultaneously; instead, they remain at historical highs.
During the uptrend, the higher the stock price, the higher the account net value, the more money investors can borrow, and new financing will continue to buy stocks with the best performance from earlier periods. But when the market weakens, this logic reverses: stock declines lower account net value, margin pressure rises, and investors can only add cash or reduce positions.
To put it plainly, in the past two months, whatever retail investors leveraged to chase after it rose even faster. Now that the market has started to pull back, the stocks with the highest concentration of retail investor holdings and the biggest gains earlier have become the first to show double-digit declines.
The faster the price rises earlier, the more crowded the position, and the higher the margin financing ratio, the more stocks you need to sell after a decline.$OKSOL
$OKSOL is pulling back toward a key support area. A confirmed bounce could open the next recovery move.
EP: $72.80–$73.60
TP: $75.50 / $77.80
SL: $71.20Apple has returned to the top spot in global market capitalization, and the market is beginning to reassess AI valuations.
As of July 29, the CompaniesMarketCap page shows Apple's market value at approximately $4.994 trillion, Nvidia at about $4.771 trillion, and Microsoft at around $2.921 trillion. Apple surpassed Nvidia at the close on July 27, and during intraday trading, it briefly touched $5 trillion.
This lead is not just a momentary ranking fluctuation caused by a single transaction, but a normal intraday volatility between the two companies could still cause their positions to swap again.
Nvidia's fundamentals have not suddenly weakened. Its revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 was $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase; data center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92%. Looking solely at growth rates, Nvidia still far outpaces Apple.
The market is also recalculating another set of data: how much AI capital expenditure is still needed to sustain such growth, how long profit margins can be maintained, and how much of these expectations are already priced into the current stock price.
Apple's answer leans more toward mature cash flow. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue was $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, earnings per share grew 22%, and operating cash flow exceeded $28 billion; service revenue hit a new high, and the board authorized an additional $100 billion stock buyback.
By the end of 2025, Apple’s active device installations exceeded 2.5 billion. This means it can distribute AI features across hardware, systems, subscriptions, and services, without relying solely on a single model to prove commercial value.
Changes in share capital also reflect the difference between the two models. SEC data shows Apple’s outstanding shares decreased from about 15.02 billion in January 2025 to approximately 14.69 billion in April 2026. Buybacks do not automatically create market value but increase the cash flow and earnings per share weight. Nvidia’s valuation more directly bets on continued expansion of global AI infrastructure investment.
However, Apple’s stock price is already close to its 52-week high, and the July 30 earnings report is imminent. iPhone and service growth, profit margins, and AI progress on devices will all determine whether the current valuation can hold. For Nvidia, cloud provider capital expenditure, data center growth, and gross margin remain the main variables for overtaking.
Apple reclaiming first place indicates the market is temporarily placing higher weight on distribution capability, cash flow, and capital returns. Nvidia’s next overtaking will still depend on AI investments continuing to translate into sustainable profits.
#苹果公司市值重回全球首位，超越英伟达 $SNDK $SPCX Today I saw many posts about liquidations in SanDisk and Rocket. Contract liquidations aren't scary; what's scary is not knowing why they happen. You must manage your positions well and understand why the crash happens! The full reason for the decline of SNDK and SPCX (both are tokenized US RWAs on Solana chains, not native air coins, anchored to real stocks)
1. The logic behind the sharp drop in $SNDK (SanDisk token).
1. Valuation bubbles + profit-taking concentrated exit
During the previous storage AI rally, the stock surged more than tenfold, with the price-to-earnings ratio at a historic high. A large amount of short-term funds took profits at the high level, and selling pressure was concentrated.
2. Negative industry fundamentals
Samsung and Kioxia expand production, raising market concerns about NAND flash oversupply and weakening chip prices in 2027; Citron institutions openly shorted the market, claiming that storage is just a commodity without an AI chip moat, intensifying short sellers' suppression.
3. Shareholders continue to reduce their holdings
Its parent company, Western Digital, has been continuously selling shares on large scales, executives have lifted locks and reduced holdings, and circulating shares have steadily increased, suppressing prices.
4. Additional volatility in RWA tokens
On-chain 24/7 uninterrupted trading, combined with high contract leverage, post-market negative news in the US market directly passes on to tokens, amplifying the decline.
2. The logic behind the sharp drop in $SPCX (SpaceX token).
1. Valuation returns after IPO surges
After listing, it surged to a peak of $225, relying on "aerospace + xAI computing power" to hype valuations and overdraw valuations, with funds buying expectations and selling facts, collectively cashing in returns.
2. Large bond issuances raise concerns about cash flow
Shortly after listing, it announced the issuance of $20 billion in bonds. The market doubts the ongoing massive losses in AI and Starlink businesses, the immense capital expenditure pressure, and the prospect of profitability is far off.
3. Extremely low circulation and fragile liquidity
Only 4.2% of shares are tradable, and a small amount of selling can crash the market; Options and leveraged ETFs passively closed out positions, creating a stampede, with losses doubling and amplifying.
4. Large traders sell while retail investors take over
On-chain data shows whales selling off in batches at high levels, while ordinary retail investors bottom-fished and bought chips, continuing to face pressure; The overall risk aversion sentiment in the technology growth sector dragged down.
3. Common factors behind the simultaneous decline of both tokens
1. Cooling of macro risk appetite
The Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy has led to a collective correction in high-valuation technology assets, and the AI and storage sectors have weakened across the board.
2. Capital rotation in the RWA sector
Funds are withdrawing from high-end US stock tokens and shifting to low-end native cryptocurrencies, causing sector capital outflow.
3. Contract Leverage Liquidation
Both currencies opened high-multiples perpetual contracts. After the price broke through key support, long orders were liquidated in bulk, triggering a chain sell-off.