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After the CPI release, the US stock market and $BTC may not follow the script you expect.
Don't get carried away by the pre-market broad rally; this CPI completely met expectations, essentially **no surprise positive news**. The pre-market surge has already priced in the sentiment, and the real test comes after the open. The probability of a one-sided rally is much lower than a rise followed by a pullback.
Pre-market Nasdaq futures rose nearly 1%, AI concept stocks surged collectively. It looks like a risk appetite recovery after the data release, but a closer look reveals: overall CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year at 2.5%, exactly matching market expectations with no signs of inflation cooling beyond expectations, so there is no new upward driving force. The current rise is more due to short covering combined with retail funds rushing ahead; institutional big money has not truly entered or taken a stance. The sharper the pre-market rise, the heavier the selling pressure to realize profits after the open.
The most likely scenario after the open is “gap up and rally → bull trap pullback → range-bound oscillation,” rather than a one-sided bull market. On one hand, the positive news has been realized; funds that started betting on weaker CPI last week will take profits and exit on the gap up. On the other hand, core inflation has not accelerated downward, expectations for a September rate cut have not materially increased, and the market lacks reasons to push the index sharply higher. Structurally, there will be clear divergence: AI small caps can remain active based on earnings and sentiment, but large-cap heavyweights will struggle to sustain gains. The probability of the index rising then falling is much greater than a one-sided rally.
As for BTC, don’t expect it to follow the Nasdaq for a big move; its volatility today will likely be weaker than US stocks. BTC already led the rebound a few days ago and rallied again before the data release, so the positive news is basically priced in. More importantly, short-term funds are flowing into US stock AI small caps, diverting attention away from the crypto market. Intraday, BTC will likely follow US stocks with an initial rally then pullback, remaining in a range-bound pattern. The resistance zone at 64800-65000 is hard to break in one go, and support lies in the 63500-63000 range. Even if it falls, it won’t be deep; essentially, it’s a back-and-forth wash between bulls and bears.
The biggest trap today is chasing longs on a gap up or chasing shorts on a pullback. CPI is not the start of a new trend but the end of prior expectations. Going forward, the market will shift from "speculating on rate cut expectations" to "focusing on earnings quality." Don’t hold onto a piece of data that just meets expectations.
This is not investment advice #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 $BEAT $ETH 9:30 Pre-market US stock token mapping shows broad divergence, storage sector strong, aerospace under pressure
CPI data fully meets expectations, liquidity expectations remain stable, pre-market funds cluster in certainty sectors, bulls and bears diverge, core targets show clear trends:
1. Storage sector leads the rally
$xSNDK up 4.58%, $xSKHY up 4.40%, AI storage essential demand + long-term order logic continues to attract capital, pre-market incremental funds keep entering, the only strong sector overall. SanDisk Investor Day on August 13 approaches, funds positioned in advance, short-term resistance at 1360, 150 above.
2. Aerospace target $xSPCX weak sideways
No active capital layout, combined with multiple rounds of large unlocking pressure, lack of macroeconomic positive offsets, slight pre-market fluctuations, weak bullish momentum, heavy resistance at 140 difficult to break.
3. Crypto-linked targets mildly recover
$BTC, $SOL slightly up, market base stabilizes, risk appetite slightly recovers; platform tokens $BNB, $OKB fluctuate but resist decline, acting as safe-haven base positions.
4. Polarization between safe-haven and altcoins
Gold-mapped $XAUT slightly up, inflation concerns not fully dissipated, hedging funds remain; small-cap altcoin $ONE plummets 38.59%, trending hot.
Opening trading reminders
Avoid chasing highs in storage, take profits anytime; avoid bottom-fishing $xSPCX; hold light positions and wait for Kevin Walsh's speech at 10 to set direction, reduce contract leverage in advance, beware of two-way stop-loss spikes.
⚠️ Market review only, not investment adviceThe core CPI is expected to be 0.2%. After the data release, it met expectations. The seasonally adjusted core CPI is 0.2%. BTC is still in a volatile market. Damn, if it can't hold above 64000, I will consider halving my position around 63640 (loss). Because if it falls below 63640 again, it means the bullish strength of $BTC is really insufficient. In the previous article "What you're buying now with BTC is not the price, but the expectation: Four key points in the next four months," the first expectation mentioned is that as long as the CPI meets or is below expectations, it is neutral to slightly bullish, at least a short-term positive until the end of August. However, if the price falls below the psychological bullish threshold of 64000 and cannot rebound back above 64000, then this expectation becomes invalid. The 63640 level is critical because if the price breaks below 64000 and cannot recover, breaking 63640 means a continued decline or a higher possibility of a slow downtrend.8/12 SNDK Plan
Currently, SNDK has experienced a strong rebound on the four-hour chart, with the current price around 1350. The KDJ indicator's three lines are all in a severe overbought zone, indicating a technical pullback is needed in the short term. The MACD bullish momentum is slowing down, and the price has reached the upper Bollinger Band resistance.
Trading suggestion: Short SNDK near 1350, target 1300-1200 $SNDK $BTC $ETH $BTC is increasingly resembling a “tech stock”? Gold $XAU and BTC are actually on two different paths
Many people still habitually call BTC “digital gold,” but in actual trading terms, it has increasingly behaved like a risk asset in recent years.
A study conducted after the approval of spot ETFs found that BTC’s correlation with U.S. stocks has significantly increased, while its correlation with gold is overall close to zero.
This explains a very practical phenomenon: when the market trades on rate cuts and liquidity improvements, observing the Nasdaq, $NVDA, COIN, MSTR sometimes makes it easier to understand BTC’s capital sentiment than just focusing on gold.
So my cross-market observation sequence is:
U.S. Treasury yields → U.S. dollar → Nasdaq/high Beta tech stocks → BTC.
If U.S. stock risk appetite clearly warms up, but BTC remains weak around the 63,000–64,000 range, that instead indicates that internal selling pressure in the crypto space is worth watching.
Risk boundary: correlations can change, so you can’t directly infer “BTC must rise” just because the Nasdaq rises. Cross-market data only serves to judge the environment; BTC’s own price and volume ultimately confirm the direction.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 1. Today's Market Sentiment and Market Review
Wild volatility, undercurrents surging. This is the most direct impression of today's market.
The market engaged in an extremely fierce tug-of-war around the BTC $64,000 level. BTC spot finally closed at $64,158.30 (-0.26%), slightly down, with a narrowed daily amplitude. Capital showed significant divergence here, indicating that bulls and bears reached a temporary stalemate ahead of the non-farm payroll data and subsequent macroeconomic indicators.
However, a strong "bloodletting effect" and "narrative divergence" appeared between mainstream coins and altcoins:
1. ETH's strength against the market trend: ETH spot closed at $1,912.00 (+1.26%), with the ETH/BTC rate rebounding strongly intraday. This was mainly due to Fidelity's breakthrough progress in staking underlying assets for ETFs, prompting capital to rush ahead on expectations of ETH as an "interest-bearing asset."
2. AI and traditional tech hardware surged, while crypto altcoins bled: On-exchange capital showed a clear trend of "abandoning the dark for the light." Stimulated by the blockbuster earnings report of Nvidia ecosystem partner CoreWeave, synthetic assets linked to semiconductors and AI hardware on OKX (such as SKHYNIX perpetual +7.09%, SNDK perpetual +6.71%) were aggressively accumulated. In contrast, traditional altcoins lacking narrative support and less liquid new tokens (such as KAITO -25.49%, BICO -12.30%) faced ruthless liquidity dumping $XAU Gold's long wick candle is a real heart-stopper💥
This is exactly what Sister Long called a fake breakout! It violently surged to 4450.5 in an instant, many rushed to go long in a frenzy, then a big bearish candle slammed down hard, leaving everyone on guard🥹
What you need to do with gold is plan ahead, not chase the highs and sell the lows! Brothers caught in the trap, don't panic, the big picture is still bullish, but don't blindly add to your positions~
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Kevin Walsh speaks at 10 o'clock! CPI benefits may directly become invalid, tonight is the key point for bulls and bears
Key points
Walsh's stance is flexibly hawkish, having repeatedly spoken against market expectations in the past, with a single sentence capable of overturning the market.
1. Inflation statement is core
This CPI just meets expectations, and the market generally bets on easing. If he emphasizes that the inflation decline is a one-time phenomenon and delays rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, and $BTC, $ETH, and storage tokens collectively come under pressure; if he acknowledges continued cooling of inflation, risk assets rally across the board.
2. Rate cut pace and balance sheet views
If he signals rate cuts within the year, $xSNDK and $xSKHY storage mainlines continue strong; if hawkish and maintaining balance sheet reduction, high-level clustered funds will flee.
3. Attitude towards crypto and AI
Moderate regulatory wording benefits $BTC and $XRP; optimism about AI's long-term logic can only temporarily buffer negative impacts.
Predictions for various assets
- BTC/ETH: Hawkish stance pulls back to key support, dovish breaks through range resistance, strictly avoid heavy one-sided bets in advance
- Storage tokens: The strongest mainline this round, liquidity tightening easily triggers profit-taking stampedes
- $XAUT Gold: If inflation worries persist, it holds above 4400; if rate cut expectations cool, it directly pulls back
- $SPCX: Combined with unlocking negative factors, macro tightening will cause double weakness
Practical advice
Reduce contract leverage before the speech, mainly observe. Hawkish positioning in gold, $BNB/$OKB for hedging; dovish landing then follow mainstream and storage sectors accordingly, beware of two-way spikes causing stop losses during the speech. This is a high-risk volatility setup, and the key point is that CPI itself may matter less than the deviation from expectations and Core CPI.
🔴 Hot CPI: Higher yields + reduced rate-cut expectations → pressure on BTC/ETH and leveraged longs.
🟢 Cool CPI: Lower yields + stronger rate-cut expectations → potential BTC/ETH breakout and short liquidations.
🟡 In-line CPI: Initial whipsaw is very possible before the market chooses direction.
The biggest danger is front-running the release with excessive leverage. The first 5–15 minutes can produce a move in one direction, trigger liquidations, and then reverse sharply.
Risk-first approach: reduce leverage, keep liquidation levels far away, and wait for the initial reaction to establish whether the move is being confirmed by volume and yields. Going all-in before the number is essentially betting on a binary outcome.
For BTC and ETH, I would watch Core CPI + Treasury yields + the dollar together rather than CPI alone.
#SECActsAsCLARITYWaits #HormuzPressureRises #Gold4400HavenBid 【No surprises as CPI lands, ETH funding deserves more attention】
【Today's Focus】
Asset: $ETH
Key Event: US July CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%, both in line with expectations; ETH currently around $1909, outperforming BTC in the past 24 hours, while Nansen data shows a single-day net outflow of about $49.7 million from ETH exchanges.
【My View: Short-term bullish】
Reasons:
1. No upward surprise in CPI, macro bearish factors have not intensified for now.
2. ETH shows stronger performance relative to BTC, short-term capital preference improves.
3. Increased net outflow from exchanges, potential spot selling pressure decreases.
【Risks】
If ETH falls back below $1900 and continues to weaken, or if interest rate expectations turn hawkish again, the bullish logic may fail.
【Conclusion】
Whether ETH can convert its capital flow advantage into a breakout rally is the key focus for the next 1 to 3 days. Rational discussion is welcome. Let's talk about the current core market pattern: institutional funds are flowing back into the crypto market, but for future major rallies, you can't rely solely on institutional movements.
Over the past week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, clearly showing the rebound in confidence from major funds and the start of early positioning.
But prices have yet to break out of a one-sided trend, and everyone is waiting for tonight's CPI inflation data. This data will directly affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crypto markets moving in sync.
There is a risk here that cannot be ignored: geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and persistently high oil prices. High oil prices will continue to support inflation and limit the Fed's room for easing.
A simple breakdown of three layers of logic: institutions use volatility to accumulate shares; CPI determines short-term liquidity expectations; Geopolitical risks in crude oil continue to suppress the room for easing.
If inflation data cools down and oil prices do not continue to surge, liquidity expectations improve, BTC leads the mainstream rebound, ETH strengthens through staking and RWA narratives, and SOL and OKB will also see opportunities.
If inflation exceeds expectations or the Middle East situation escalates again, the volatile market will continue, making it difficult to break out of the trend in the short term. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another Looking at some of the top gainers among altcoins right now, there are a few controversial ones that Sen Ge will briefly discuss with everyone: $TUT, $BEAT, $PROM, $BR, $APR
First, about $TUT:
The CZ hype effect drove a phenomenal surge! It’s probably the altcoin where retail investors have lost the most recently. Although it surged 2000% from the bottom, before this volume spike, the tokens were mostly concentrated in the hands of the project team. By the time retail investors paid attention, large whale addresses on-chain had already started selling off in batches. The BSC chain is basically highly controlled. After TUT rose, TST, Mubarak, Lobster, and others also started to follow the rise. But many retail investors didn’t realize that TUT was already being distributed at high levels, so those who didn’t do TUT but wanted to do other altcoins in the same sector got trapped. And yesterday I saw the funniest fan telling me that now it’s just about washing out the weak holders 😂 I can only say, just hold on tight haha. You got the contract trend and swing trades all wrong and didn’t cut losses in time, trading every day based on feelings, chasing highs and selling lows. The key is he was so confident, but I won’t educate him—the market will give you a bloody lesson 😕. In short, TUT will continue to drift down in the short term. The dog whales won’t easily free up high-level long positions. Those with safe positions who don’t want to leave should prepare for a long-term battle with the dog whales!
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 In the grand narrative of modular blockchains, Celestia has always been portrayed as the technical hero breaking Ethereum's high Gas monopoly.
With its cheap data availability service, it has successfully attracted dozens of Layer 2 networks to settle on it.
However, this underlying philanthropist approach of building for others has recently plunged Celestia into an extremely awkward token value capture crisis.
According to publicly disclosed on-chain ledger data, despite Celestia having processed hundreds of millions of data packets, its historical cumulative data availability service fee revenue is only a pitifully low approximately $68,000.
$68,000, friends, which is not even enough to pay a junior programmer in Silicon Valley for half a year.
In stark contrast to this extremely meager real income is the billions of tokens diluted annually due to massive staking rewards and private sale unlocks.
Here we need to pay attention to the absurd economic logic involved.
Celestia's business logic is to sell block space extremely cheaply to help Layer 2 networks achieve near-zero development costs.
But this directly results in its inability to burn tokens through service fees, thus failing to provide substantial value feedback to token holders.
To rescue this collapsing value capture narrative, developers recently proposed an upgrade plan called Matcha, aiming to forcibly reduce the token inflation rate to about 0.25%.
Supporters believe that since taxes cannot be collected, the only way is to forcibly create a deflation illusion by limiting token issuance.
But this is nothing more than deceiving oneself.
If you cut inflation, the annualized yield for stakers will plummet, losing the attraction of high interest, and the funds staked in nodes may choose to withdraw at any time.
This indicates that Celestia is currently stuck in an extremely awkward self-dilution black hole.
If you maintain high inflation to sustain high staking yields, retail investors in the secondary market will be diluted to tears by the continuously increasing new tokens.
If you forcibly cut inflation to 0.25% through upgrades, staking yields drop to zero, and the security budget for nodes will directly collapse.
No matter how you adjust parameters, you cannot hide the fundamental fact that your real data availability service business is not profitable at all.
Layer 2 networks make a fortune using your cheap data channels but contribute almost no real tax revenue to you.
This "diluting retail investors to subsidize the project" business model, frankly speaking, is no different in essence from a liquidity Ponzi scheme sustained by borrowing new to pay old.
Personally, I think Celestia's embarrassment actually reveals the deepest absurdity in the entire Ethereum scaling roadmap.
We have spent all our energy on how to lower transaction fees and achieve extreme scalability.
But when we truly achieve low technical costs, we find that this system cannot form a closed loop commercially.
Without token value capture, all security foundations become a loose sandpile.
The Matcha upgrade might forcibly pull the price line back temporarily through administrative means, but this digital game detached from real value creation will ultimately expose its true face under ruthless market laws.
To you watching this, facing Celestia's historical cumulative business revenue of only $68,000, do you think low-fee scaling will eventually defeat high-priced Ethereum, and the Matcha deflation upgrade is a major long-term positive, or do you believe this modular token lacking value capture is destined to zero out?
Anyway, I think no matter how grand the story sounds, look at your wallet and the project's ledger—who is bleeding, who is pumping—the answer has long been written there.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 US July CPI: MoM +0.1%, YoY +3.4%; Core CPI MoM +0.2%, YoY +2.5%, basically all in line with expectations. Compared to June, core YoY dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%, and overall inflation also fell from 3.5% to 3.4%.
What the market fears most now is not the 3.4% CPI itself, but:
Core CPI suddenly exceeding expectations → market re-prices rate hikes → US Treasury yields/DXY surge → BTC, ETH get hammered.
Especially since the core CPI YoY at 2.5% meets expectations and is 0.1 percentage points lower than June, at least based on today's data, there is not strong evidence of inflation getting out of control again. Reuters also believes this data may weaken the case for a rate hike in September. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Tonight's July CPI is almost a "no surprise" report:
US CPI year-over-year 3.4%, month-over-month +0.1%;
Core CPI year-over-year 2.5%, month-over-month +0.2%, basically all in line with market expectations. (Reddit)
But I think the truly important part of this data is not "how much inflation has dropped," but rather—it does not provide the Federal Reserve with new evidence that it must raise rates in September.
Core inflation is still above the 2% target, so it is still too early to conclude that "rate hikes are over"; on the other hand, inflation has not clearly accelerated again. For the Fed, given signs of cooling in the economy and employment, the threshold for continuing to raise rates has actually become higher.
So my understanding is:
Tonight's CPI did not completely rule out a September rate hike, but it is shifting the question from "is inflation high enough" to "does the Fed need to risk suppressing the economy by continuing to raise rates."
There is a big difference between these two.
What will really determine the policy direction in September may no longer be this CPI report, but subsequent PPI, employment, consumption data, and statements from Fed officials.
For BTC and risk assets, this at least temporarily rules out the worst-case scenario of "inflation suddenly spiraling out of control." But if the market has already priced in "no rate hike," then what is truly worth watching is: after the good news is priced in, how much new capital is willing to continue chasing?
What I am more focused on now is not "whether there will be a rate hike in September," but whether the market will start to price in early—that this tightening cycle is approaching a real turning point.
What do you think the probability of a September rate hike should drop to? You are right, after the CPI data was released, the market indeed did not give a clear direction.
The overall CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, in line with expectations, and the core CPI year-on-year is 3.1% — essentially, this data is a "no surprise" result. BTC is hovering around $63,700, still trapped within the $62K–$66K range, with neither bulls nor bears able to break the balance.
The data itself is moderate, so the market also responded moderately: no drastic directional volatility, ETF fund flows and institutional selling pressure continue to offset each other, and no one wants to make the first move.
But we cannot ignore the pattern after the previous two CPI releases — BTC rose 10.75% and 7.58% respectively in the following week. Will it repeat this time? History does not simply repeat itself, but this data window does present a potential "bad news fully priced in" logic: inflation data meeting expectations, combined with previously fully priced-in tightening expectations, could instead become a trigger for a short-term rebound.
However, times have changed. The current market environment has several additional variables:
First, gold has risen above $4,400, risk-off sentiment is heating up, and capital preference for hard assets is strengthening, which for BTC is both a diversion and a reinforcement of consensus;
Second, AI infrastructure earnings reports are coming one after another, and whether the capital siphoning effect in the tech sector will suppress liquidity in the crypto market remains to be seen;
Third and most crucial — whether the Fed’s September rate hike pricing will be rewritten. This CPI data meeting expectations alone is not enough to change the path, but if subsequent PCE and employment data continue to weaken, market expectations for rate cuts will be repriced, and that will be the real breakthrough point.
In the short term, $62K is the bulls’ last line of defense; if it does not hold, the next support is near $60,500. The upper resistance at $66K is strong; only a volume breakout above this level can confirm the establishment of a rebound trend. At this point, holding and observing positions is more reasonable than frequent trading, waiting for the market to give its own direction. The CPI print was calm. The policy debate is not.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% MoM in July after falling 0.4% in June. Headline CPI eased from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, while core CPI slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%. The annual readings matched forecasts, removing an immediate upside surprise.
Under the surface:
· Energy fell 1.5% MoM, with gasoline down 2.9%
· Shelter rose 0.1% and drove roughly two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase
· Services excluding energy remained up 3.0% YoY
· Energy was still 14.7% higher YoY, leaving future oil pass-through in focus
The labor signal is weaker, though not broad-based yet. July payrolls fell by 23,000, while May and June were revised down by 103,000 combined. Losses were concentrated in local government education and retail, while healthcare added 22,000 jobs. Participation held at 61.4% in July but has fallen 0.7 percentage point since January.
Purchasing power also remains tight. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY in July.
That mix may reduce the urgency for another hike but does not settle September. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July by a 9-3 vote, with three officials preferring a 25 bp increase. Inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal, which the Fed formally measures using PCE rather than CPI. Around the release, CME FedWatch showed a near-even split between a hold and a hike.
Several tests remain before the Sep 15-16 meeting: PPI on Aug 13, the Fed's preferred PCE measure on Aug 26, August payrolls on Sep 4 and CPI on Sep 11. The Fed will also publish updated economic and rate projections.
For crypto, avoiding an upside CPI surprise reduces one near-term macro uncertainty, but the liquidity outlook remains data-dependent. Will the next inflation and labor reports support a hold, or revive hike pricing?
#CPIInLineFedWatch CPI just came out, in line with expectations, lukewarm, easing the pressure for a rate hike. Next, we’ll see if the SEC meeting the day after tomorrow and the CLARITY vote on September 15 can make progress.
3.4%, core 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. BTC caught a breather around 64000, ETH steady near 1900.
This data hurdle is cleared, but I’m more concerned about how regulation will proceed in the next month.
The day after tomorrow, August 14, the SEC holds a public meeting. The first item is "Regulation Crypto Assets," voting on whether to release the issuance rules for crypto investment contracts for public comment. Atkins said in July, "If Congress doesn’t legislate, we’ll do it ourselves," and the day after tomorrow is when it gets serious.
Later, on September 15, the CLARITY bill cloture vote.
These two events together are very delicate—the SEC can’t wait and wants to make rules itself, while it’s uncertain if CLARITY will survive to formal debate in Congress. Galaxy cut the passage probability to 30%, Polymarket is even harsher at 16%.
Let me explain one by one.
The SEC meeting the day after tomorrow shouldn’t be taken as bullish. They’re voting on "whether to show the draft for public criticism," still far from final rules, which require public review, revisions, and another vote, taking at least a year and a half. Also, these rules govern token issuance fundraising, not redefining BTC and ETH. The joint SEC and CFTC guidance in March already classified BTC and ETH as digital commodities, so the day after tomorrow won’t affect them.
CLARITY is the main event but likely to stall. Republicans have 53 votes, cloture requires 60, so even with full Republican support, they need 7 Democrats. The moral clause, stablecoin yields, illegal finance/DeFi—none of these three issues are resolved. Hawley and Paul are still dissenting internally. If it fails, Lummis said market structure legislation might be delayed until 2030.
But adding macro factors changes things. Core CPI at 2.5%, plus July’s nonfarm payrolls surged by 230,000, the probability of a September rate hike is already dropping. If inflation continues at this pace, liquidity expectations will improve by year-end, and even if CLARITY only passes cloture and starts formal debate—note, just starts debate—BTC’s resilience won’t be small, and ETH even more so; when it really rallies, ETH’s beta has always been stronger than BTC’s.
Of course, this is the most optimistic scenario. The reality is CLARITY will likely be delayed again on September 15, the new SEC chair can change departmental rules, and Middle East oil prices are still hanging around 89.
My own strategy: holding both $BTC and $ETH, neither adding nor selling around 63000-64000 and 1800+. The day after tomorrow, I’ll check where the "investment contract" boundary is in the draft, and on September 15, see if those 7 Democrats can be swayed. Before that, as long as CPI doesn’t cause chaos, that’s the biggest positive.
Just sharing, not advice.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Official U.S. data released shows that the U.S. July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations and lower than June's 3.5%; the core CPI year-over-year was 2.5%, also meeting expectations and below the previous 2.6%. Both inflation measures cooled simultaneously, continuing the decline after 4.2% in May. For the market, the data did not create any new inflation upside surprises.
However, the inflation level remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and has been above the target for nine consecutive months. In other words, the main theme of this data is a slowdown in price momentum, not that inflationary pressure has disappeared; the year-over-year reading's decline improves the short-term inflation narrative but still leaves a gap from the policy target.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate currently stands at 3.75%, with policy rates held steady at 3.75% in April, June, and July. Given inflation meets expectations and continues to cool, the necessity for further rate hikes by the Fed decreases; however, since CPI remains above the 2% target, policymakers may still remain cautious about prematurely shifting to rate cuts. #TonightCPIRelease, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Tonight's CPI release will rewrite the pricing for the September rate hike
The data is out, let's look directly at the numbers.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, month-on-month 0.2%. Core CPI year-on-year is 3.1%, month-on-month 0.3%. The market previously expected overall year-on-year at 3.4%, core year-on-year at 2.5%. Overall is below expectations, core is above expectations. Inflation is cooling down, but the stickiness of core inflation is stronger than the market anticipated.
Breaking down this data:
Overall CPI year-on-year at 2.7% is indeed the lowest level since 2021. Month-on-month 0.2% also meets expectations. Core CPI year-on-year at 3.1% is higher than the market expectation of 2.5%, and month-on-month 0.3% is also higher than the expected 0.2%. The stickiness of core service inflation remains, with housing and medical service prices not falling as quickly as overall inflation.
Oil prices have fallen from the July highs to around $80, which has a clear drag effect on overall CPI. But the stickiness of core service inflation mainly comes from housing costs and wage growth, two variables insensitive to interest rates, so rate cuts cannot suppress them. Non-farm data has confirmed employment is cooling, but core inflation data reminds the market that the cooling speed may not be fast enough.
Impact on BTC:
Overall CPI is below expectations, core CPI is above expectations, the two directions are opposite, but the overall narrative is moderate. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September will not rise sharply because of this data, as overall inflation is indeed trending down. However, the stickiness of core inflation will suppress rate cut expectations, and the market will need more time to wait for easing signals.
BTC is very likely to have a short-term rebound, with 64500 to 65000 as the first target, and a breakthrough looking at 65500. But the sustainability of the rebound needs verification; higher core inflation means the Fed will not rush to signal a pivot. If core inflation remains high, BTC may face resistance and fall back again in the 65500 to 66000 range.
Trading strategy:
Continue holding long positions at 62288, move stop loss up to 63000, first target 64500 to 65000, breakthrough looking at 65500. If the price pulls back to 63500 to 63800 without volume-driven breakdown, it is a chance to add positions. Overall CPI data is moderately soft, but higher core means betting on rate cuts requires more patience. The direction hasn't changed, but the timing must be right. Overall weak CPI is a short-term positive, higher core is a medium-term constraint. Hold your positions, don't be scared out by volatility. Live Trading Review: After the BICO short grid stop loss, this time no longer chasing small coin one-sided trades.
BICOUSDT short 5x contract grid actually ran from 18:34 to 20:17, with an investment of 2 USDT, ultimately losing 0.1923 USDT, a return rate of -9.62%, automatically stopped according to stop loss conditions. During this period, 11 arbitrage trades were completed, with grid earnings of about +0.0983 USDT, but the directional floating loss caused by the rebound offset the arbitrage profits.
The reason for the review is very clear: when opening the position, BICO had already dropped about 17%, the price was close to the intraday low, the space to continue shorting was limited, but the rebound risk was very high. The grid can earn from volatility, but it can't save a wrong entry position.
A new strategy has been launched: ETHUSDT short contract grid 5x, margin 4.20 USDT, range 1865-1935, total 10 grids, take profit +10%, stop loss -7%, with copy trading enabled.
The reason for switching to ETH this time is because liquidity and depth are significantly higher than small coins, the current price is near the 24-hour high area, and the short exposure can partially hedge existing altcoin long positions. The account still retains about 0.98 USDT and will no longer fully utilize available funds.
Discipline remains unchanged: stop loss is the cost of the strategy, not failure; the real mistake is to immediately retaliate against the market with a larger position after a stop loss.When I woke up in the morning and my phone rang, my first thought was: Oh no, the liquidation email has arrived, right? But when he opened it, it turned out to be a profit notice. 😮 💨📈 Thank you to the whale guy for being ruthless yesterday and helping me carry the sedan chair. This feeling is really satisfying. 😂 How should I put it? It's like finally stepping on the market's rhythm, going with the breath, instead of constantly fighting with the market and stubbornly battling the market until you get bruised and stubborn. The market isn't meant to be held on; it's for following. Let's talk about $BEAT. This coin is the classic "Boy Who Cried the Wolf" child. The first two times it dropped from around 1.6, but each time it forcibly pulled back above 10. The market was taught to obey, and everyone learned the same mistake: a big crash is a handout, just close your eyes and buy the bottom. 📖 But the market never repeats the same script for freeloading. This time, the taste was completely off. After three consecutive days of volatile accumulation, looking ready to take off, it suddenly plunged overnight, dropping from 3.9 straight to 2.6, and before anyone could recover, it plunged back to 1.4. This morning, the selling pressure was still on, pressing against my face like a death warrant. ⛰️ The biggest issue now isn't how much has fallen, but the loss of liquidity. $LAB serves as a cautionary tale: there is hardly any decent support below the price. With no real buyers coming to buy in, each rebound feels like a dying person's last burst of light, weakening each time. I opened a short position yesterday and pocketed it this morning. To be honest, at first I thought about bottom-fishing, but my hands were itching to get itUS CPI just released: all four key figures met expectations, the real direction now depends on the market's own choice
July US CPI data just came out:
CPI year-on-year 3.4%, expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%
CPI month-on-month 0.1%, expected 0.1%
Core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, expected 0.2%
Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%
My judgment is simple: this data itself neither significantly exceeded nor fell short of expectations, overall it is neutral with a slight dovish bias. Year-on-year inflation continues to decline slightly, but not enough to independently drive BTC or gold into a major trend.
So the worst thing now is to chase the first big bullish or bearish candle directly. After the data fully meets expectations, the real value lies in the market's own reaction: if BTC can still break out with volume and hold steady without extra positive factors, it indicates strong capital; conversely, if this data can't move the market or even rallies then falls back, be cautious of selling pressure above.
I am now focusing on how the first 5-minute candle after 20:35 closes, and whether there is a volume breakout, pullback after breakout, or abnormal spikes in the structure. Gold also focuses on the coordination of the dollar and US Treasury yields.
This CPI is not "the data giving the answer," but the data handing the choice back to the market.
I won't chase the first wave, waiting for the market to find its own direction.
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $BTC $ETH $BEAT Stark Contrast! Investment Banks See BTC at 80,000, ETH Only at 2200 — The Root Cause Is a Flawed Valuation Metric
1. Absurd Pricing Gap Among Institutions
Bank of America and JPMorgan present extremely divergent target prices:
$BTC target at 80,000 USDT, based on S2F stock-to-flow + halving cycle, tied to the digital gold scarcity narrative;
$ETH only at 2200 USDT, purely calculated using Gas burn cash flow DCF discounting.
The same batch of investment banks, two sets of valuation logics, pricing directly creates a gap.
2. Breakdown of the Two Valuation Logics
1. BTC pricing is simple and easy to calculate
Total supply permanently fixed, four-year halving deflation, logic parallels physical gold, traditional mature financial models perfectly fit, combined with spot ETF support, institutions are willing to heavily bet.
2. ETH valuation is severely limited
Investment banks rigidly apply listed company valuation models, only capturing Gas fees as the sole cash flow.
3. ETH’s True Value Is Not in Fees
Ethereum is the core settlement layer for full-chain finance, supporting staked assets, DeFi ecosystems, stablecoin issuance, RWA tokenization, and other trillion-dollar sectors.
These on-chain fundamental values cannot be quantified by traditional cash flow valuation models, directly causing systemic undervaluation.
4. Core Market Conclusion
BTC has long established valuation consensus on Wall Street, with continuous capital inflow;
ETH’s ecosystem scale far exceeds Bitcoin’s, but due to traditional finance lacking valuation systems adapted to crypto fundamentals, its long-term value is severely buried.
The above represents personal opinions only, please consider cautiously BTC holding around $BTC 64K while ETH and SOL continue to edge higher looks more like selective risk rotation than a broad-based return of conviction.
The divergence is important: capital is still moving further down the risk curve, but not strongly enough to confirm a sustained risk-on environment.
CPI expectations could reshape Fed pricing, but the continued haven demand for gold and rising pressure around the Strait of Hormuz suggest that softer inflation shouldn’t automatically be interpreted as a clean liquidity catalyst.
$ETH
My bias remains cautious. Relative strength in BTC, ETH and SOL can continue, but macro uncertainty still favors disciplined positioning over chasing momentum.
$SOL
Just my market read, not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid The cybersecurity sector stands at the intersection of two forces: the new attack surfaces created by AI agents are driving demand expectations higher, while the sector's valuation has reached the most expensive range in the entire market.
CrowdStrike leads the cybersecurity sector with a forward PE of about 164x, followed by Cloudflare at 203x and Rubrik at 304x. These figures imply that the market has already priced in several years of high growth.
The narrative supporting this premium is clear—AI agents are rapidly being deployed on the enterprise side, and each new autonomous agent represents a potential endpoint threat entry point, leading to a reassessment of cybersecurity software deployment density and renewal rigidity.
However, valuation itself is a duration asset. After the CPI release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains close to 50%. The longer interest rates stay high, the more directly they suppress the discounting of future cash flows. If the implied growth rate corresponding to $CRWD's 164x PE is eroded by rising rate expectations, the downside will be greater than that of lower-valued peers.
The path to strength depends on two conditions being met simultaneously: core inflation data continues to decline over the next one to two months, opening a window for rate cuts; and CrowdStrike's next quarterly report shows ARR growth maintaining above 30%, proving that AI-driven demand is indeed converting into orders. If rate expectations turn dovish but growth slows, the valuation premium will also be difficult to sustain.
The path to weakness is easier to trigger. Palo Alto and Zscaler are accelerating platform integration, making the cybersecurity competition landscape more crowded. If CrowdStrike's net new ARR narrows for two consecutive quarters, the market will quickly reassess this valuation. Coupled with an inflation data surprise to the upside, high-PE tech stocks could be the first to be reduced in portfolio adjustments.
Signals that would invalidate the current neutral stance include: if the Fed releases clear dovish guidance before the September meeting, and CrowdStrike demonstrates independent revenue contribution from AI-related modules in its earnings report, then the 164x PE narrative will be re-anchored, and current valuation concerns may prove premature.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the market's revision direction of August core CPI expectations—it will determine whether high-duration tech stock positions continue to be increased or begin to loosen.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降 Official Data Interpretation: The data appears neutral to mildly positive but not strongly bullish (no surprises, considered as "delivered as expected")
The U.S. official data release shows July CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, in line with expectations and below June's 3.5%; core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%, also meeting expectations and below the previous 2.6%. Both inflation measures cooled simultaneously, continuing the decline after May's 4.2%, meaning the data did not create any new upside inflation surprises for the market.
However, the inflation level remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and has stayed above this target for nine consecutive months. In other words, the main theme of this data is a slowdown in price momentum, not that inflationary pressure has disappeared; the year-over-year decline improves the short-term inflation narrative but still leaves a gap from the policy target.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate currently stands at 3.75%, with policy rates held steady at 3.75% in April, June, and July. Given inflation meets expectations and continues to cool, the necessity for further rate hikes diminishes; however, since CPI remains above the 2% target, policymakers may still remain cautious about prematurely shifting to rate cuts. #TonightCPIRelease, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? $BTC Tonight's most unusual signal: perpetual trading activity drops to a 3-year low
BTC rebounded today from around $63,200 back above $64,000, but more noteworthy than the price is this: K33 data shows that BTC perpetual contract trading activity has fallen to its lowest level since 2023.
This is a completely different market condition from "leverage overheating"—traders are waiting for the CPI and are reluctant to take active positions.
This low-activity market usually has two characteristics: it is very boring before a breakout; when a catalyst actually appears, volatility may suddenly amplify due to insufficient order book and positions.
Tonight, I am more focused on the $63,200 support and $65,000 resistance. Regaining and holding above $65,000 indicates that capital is starting to flow back actively; falling below $63,200 again means today's rebound has basically failed.
Risk boundary: low volume is neither bearish nor bullish; it means the market lacks consensus. The real danger is mistaking "no volatility" for "no risk."
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
BTC has recently been stuck between $62,000 and $66,000. ETF buying is still present, but miners and large holders haven't stopped selling, forcing the price into a straight line. Market implied volatility has been compressed to historically low levels, indicating everyone is waiting for a trigger. Tonight's US CPI is very likely that button.
Many people find sideways trading the most frustrating because there's no sharp rise or complete crash; going long risks chasing a high, while shorting risks a sudden pump.
But from another perspective, the market is actually redistributing chips. Short-term funds lack patience, long-term funds are observing; fewer people are betting everything on news, and the real direction is still decided by macro liquidity.
I don't really believe a single CPI report can completely change BTC's long-term trend, but it can determine the short-term direction:
If CPI is below expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall back, giving BTC a chance to test above $66,000;
If CPI is hotter, the market will reprice tightening expectations, and whether the $62,000 support holds becomes critical; if it breaks, seeing $60,000 wouldn't be surprising.
What's more noteworthy is that market funds now clearly prefer AI computing power, chips, and optical communications. Crypto hasn't disappeared; it's just temporarily out of the spotlight.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Real big moves often don't start when the whole network is shouting a bull comeback, but when everyone wonders why the coin isn't moving yet, slowly grinding out the undecided chips.
So these two days, instead of staring at the one-minute candlestick guessing ups and downs, it's better to watch two things: whether the $62,000 support is effective, and how the dollar and US Treasury yields move after the CPI release.
Sideways trading isn't scary; the scariest thing is opening positions recklessly without direction $BTC Crypto Is Facing a Different Test: Is Liquidity Strong Enough?
The crypto market is not short of fresh capital. The real question is whether that capital is strong enough to create a sustained trend.
$BTC is trading around the $63K–$64K area after weeks of consolidation, while Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $854 million in net inflows during the first week of August, showing that institutional interest remains active.
But price has not followed flows higher.
That divergence is the key signal.
ETF demand is absorbing part of the selling pressure, but macro uncertainty is preventing $BTC from establishing a decisive breakout.
Meanwhile, $ETH is showing improving capital flows. After a weaker period, Ethereum ETFs have seen renewed demand, suggesting institutional interest in $ETH is gradually returning.
Still, the broader market is waiting for a stronger catalyst.
The focus now is on U.S. inflation, Fed expectations, Treasury yields and global liquidity.
If inflation continues to cool, markets could price a more supportive Fed path, potentially strengthening risk appetite across crypto.
But geopolitical risks remain. Higher energy prices and renewed pressure around the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation concerns alive and limit expectations for easier monetary policy.
That leaves crypto caught between two forces:
Institutional demand is improving.
Macro liquidity is still uncertain.
If $BTC breaks out while ETF inflows accelerate, the current consolidation could become the foundation for a broader expansion.
If not, the market may remain trapped in another extended range.
The most important signal is not the next candle.
It is whether capital can finally turn into sustained price momentum.
If you find this analysis useful, follow me for the next major market updates.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#HormuzPressureRises
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
$BTC
$ETH Gold At 4414: “I’m The Main Character.” 😎
The chart:
“Every main character needs a plot twist.” 👀
TradingTop AI identified a potential bearish scenario:
📍 Key level: 4414
🎯 TP1: 4362
🎯 TP2: 4227
No crystal ball. No market fortune-telling. 🔮
Just AI-powered analysis turning price structure into a clearer trading scenario.
Because gold may choose chaos…
but your analysis doesn’t have to. 🐒📊
Bullish continuation or bearish plot twist—which side are you on? 👇
#XAUUSD #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ 一、核心数据速览：整体降温，但核心部分依然顽固 · 整体CPI：同比涨 2.7%（预期3.4%），环比涨0.2%。 这是2021年以来最低，说明整体通胀在快速回落。 · 核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：同比涨 3.1%（预期2.5%），环比涨0.3%。 这比预想的高，说明刨去油价等波动因素，底层物价还很“粘手”。 · 一句话概括：表面数字好于预期，但骨子里的通胀压力比市场想的要大。 --- 二、为什么会这样？——拆开揉碎看 · 整体CPI为什么低：主要拖累是油价（从7月高位跌至80美元附近），拉低了能源相关成本。 · 核心CPI为什么高：问题出在核心服务，尤其是住房成本和工资增长。 这两个东西对利率不敏感，即使降息也很难快速压下去，因为房租和工资有惯性。 · 矛盾点：就业已在降温（非农数据证明），但核心通胀降温速度不够快，这让美联储很纠结。 --- 三、对市场与比特币的影响 · 对美联储政策的判断： · 整体通胀往下走 → 9月加息概率不会明显上升。 · 核心通胀粘性强 → 降息预期会被抑制，宽松信号还要等更久。Recently, when CRCL and MSTR returned to what I thought were relatively low, I didn't fully fill my positions at once but gradually lowered costs by "buying at irregular times and supplementing as prices drop." Now some results are starting to appear: CRCL average position price is 63.06, currently around $72, and the return on 5x long orders has already exceeded 60%; MSTR holds an average position price of 95.93, with a current return close to 10%. Of course, these are still floating profits at present. As for CRCL, if the return can reach around 100% later, I'll consider getting back part of the principal first, and keep the remaining profits running. This way, even if there are significant fluctuations later, your mindset and position pressure will be much less. MSTR isn't as smooth as CRCL, and I think a big reason is its strong connection with Bitcoin. Currently, BTC is in a short-term adjustment phase, and macro data like CPI directly affect market expectations for interest rates and risk assets. Before Bitcoin takes a new direction, it will be difficult for MSTR to completely separate from BTC and move on its own. Actually, I think it's not an exaggeration to think of MSTR as the "amplifier of Bitcoin." Strategy itself even directly labels MSTR as "Amplified Bitcoin." The reason is simple: Strategy's asset structure contains a very large amount of BitcoinThe data has been released. Undoubtedly, the data proves that core inflation is weakening, showing the weakest year-on-year increase. A rate hike in September has become even less likely; the script remains familiar. Now let's look at the market performance after the release.
1. The US dollar index surged and then fell back. The 2-year and 10-year yields dropped by about 3 basis points; gold first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again.
2. All of this points to a decline in core inflation and a further reduced probability of a rate hike in September.
3. As the new fiscal year approaches, the Federal Reserve lacks independence.
4. The greater the gap between the aggressively hawkish stance and the moderately benign data, the more it shows that Fed officials are adept at finding ways out. If you also consider the employment situation, the only thing missing now is a stock market trading recession. Then a rate cut is inevitable. CPI符合预期别盲目乐观！多重暗雷埋伏，AI赛道反弹只是短暂喘息 8月12日讯，美国7月CPI数据落地，整体\(SNDK、\)核心数据全部踩中市场预期，很多人已经开始提前博弈宽松行情。 ⚠️但我必须提醒所有人：**这份数据暗藏巨大隐患，当下的乐观情绪极度危险，不要轻易重仓抄底$SNDK ## 一\(SNDK、\)表面利好：通胀如期降温 美国7月CPI同比3.4%（前值3.5%），核心CPI同比2.5%（前值2.6%）；CPI环比+0.1%，结束6月环比下跌态势。 数据符合预期，短期削弱美联储9月加息压力。分析师观点直观：沃什暂时可以松一口气，月度数据暂时没有拉响通胀警报。 ## 二\(SNDK、\)四大致命隐患，风险正在酝酿 🔴隐患1：通胀回落只是阶段性喘息，8月通胀大概率反弹 7月通胀降温主要依靠**汽油价格下行**支撑，但7月下旬油价已经快速上涨。 经济学家一致预判：受能源价格回升影响，**8月CPI涨幅将再度加快**。 仅仅一份温和CPI远远不足以确认通胀持续下行，沃什想要确认趋势，必须等待8月通胀报告。现在下定论，为时过早。 🔴隐患2：地缘冲突持续锁死能源上行空间，再通胀CPI results met expectations, so why did $BTC fall instead of rise?
Key Events
July US CPI data fully matched market expectations:
- CPI month-over-month +0.1%, year-over-year +3.4%
- Core CPI month-over-month +0.2%, year-over-year +2.5%
Housing costs are the main driver of inflation, contributing two-thirds of this CPI increase, while energy prices fell 1.5% month-over-month. After the data release, $BTC did not rally but instead dropped back to around $64,000, showing a typical "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern.
Underlying Logic of the Decline
The market trades on the difference between expectations and reality, not just the data itself.
Before the CPI release, weaker nonfarm payroll data had already lowered market expectations for further Fed rate hikes, and optimism about rate cuts was already priced in. $BTC rebounded to around $65,000 on this basis.
This CPI release simply confirmed prior market guesses without any surprise below expectations or incremental positive news.
Funds that had previously speculated on positive outcomes took profits and exited after the data release, directly causing selling pressure and a pullback.
In simple terms: meeting expectations = no surprise, which is insufficient to drive a new upward rally.
Key Areas to Watch Next
With CPI data settled, the market focus shifts to the strength of support levels: specifically the $63,000–$63,800 range.
1. If the price can hold above this range: it indicates a consolidation after positive news has been realized, with the existing mid-term structure intact, just needing time to absorb selling pressure above.
2. If it breaks below this support effectively: it means the selling pressure accumulated above $65,000 remains heavy, bullish momentum is insufficient, and the market may open further downside.
Market Takeaway
Data meeting expectations only means no new negative surprises; it does not guarantee an upward move.
The old story of cooling inflation has been fully priced in by the market. To push $BTC to break upward again, new catalysts are needed: either clearer easing signals from the Fed or real incremental capital inflows from ETFs or on-chain activity. Relying solely on old expectations already priced in makes sustained price increases difficult. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $BTC $ETH U.S. official data showed that the U.S. July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations and lower than June's 3.5%; Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, also in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.6%. Both inflation indicators cooled simultaneously, continuing the decline from 4.2% in May. For the market, the data did not surprise any new inflation increases.
However, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% inflation target and has remained above the target for the ninth consecutive month. In other words, the main theme of this data is a slowdown in price momentum, not that inflationary pressures have disappeared; The year-on-year decline has improved the short-term inflation narrative, but there is still a gap to policy targets.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is currently at 3.75%, while the policy rates for April, June, and July have all remained at 3.75%. With inflation in line with expectations and continuing to cool, the need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates has diminished; However, CPI remains above the 2% target, and policy may remain cautious about an early shift to rate cuts. #今晚CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
Risk Warning: This article is only a macro and market observation analysis and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.
1. Overview of Data Release
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI was officially released: overall CPI year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%; core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, month-on-month 0.2%, all fully in line with market consensus expectations, with no significant deviation.
Before the data release, CME interest rate futures priced the probability of a September rate hike at about 47%, at a 50% critical game position; after the data release, the rate hike probability slightly fell to 45%, only a very minor downward adjustment.
👉Key conclusion: This CPI did not completely rewrite the September rate hike pricing, only slightly revised expectations. The September meeting still holds two possibilities, with the market shifting from a "coin toss" to a slight bias toward wait-and-see.
This data is a "neutral report meeting expectations," neither directly ruling out a rate hike nor opening a window for easing. The inflation cooling pace maintains the original path, with no trend inflection point.
2. Macro Transmission Logic: Why the Rate Hike Pricing Was Not Completely Rewritten
1. Core inflation only moderately declined; housing inflation remains sticky, making it difficult for the Fed to abandon the rate hike option based on a single month's data.
2. Geopolitical risks in crude oil remain unresolved; energy prices could rise at any time, driving subsequent inflation readings, so the market retains a risk premium.
3. Fed stance: policy path depends on a set of data, not a single CPI report; August inflation and employment data will still influence the September decision.
In summary: This CPI can only reduce the urgency of a September rate hike, not directly determine the policy outcome.
3. Crypto Market Performance (BTC, ETH)
Market characteristics: priced in advance, spike on release followed by profit-taking and pullback
1. Before CPI release, ETH had already rebounded in advance, rising from a low of 1852 to above 1900, with the market anticipating a neutral to slightly bullish expectation.
2. At the moment of data release: ETH spiked briefly to 1927, then quickly formed a long upper wick and pulled back, showing a typical profit-taking spike on the 5-minute chart, settling around 1910; BTC also spiked then pulled back, without a clear breakout.
3. Market signals interpretation:
- Short-term bulls chose to exit on the release, with no new incremental funds entering;
- The market is unwilling to trade a sustained bullish run based on a neutral CPI alone;
- Contract leverage funds quickly realized short-term profits, maintaining a consolidation pattern.
ETH key price levels update
- Short-term resistance: 1915-1920, strong resistance zone at 1927 (this spike high)
- Short-term support: 1902, with the rebound lifeline at 1885
Only a close above 1927 can further open the rebound space; a break below 1885 would signal the end of this CPI-driven rebound.
BTC market status
Maintains range-bound consolidation, with resistance at 64600 and support at 62800; CPI data did not break the existing range structure.
4. Subsequent Scenario Projection: Two Paths for September Rate Hike
1. Path A: Subsequent inflation data steadily declines → September rate unchanged (current market baseline scenario)
Corresponding asset environment: risk assets consolidate with a slight bullish bias but unlikely to enter a strong bull trend without more liquidity catalysts.
2. Path B: August CPI rebounds again, employment data shows stronger-than-expected resilience → market raises September rate hike probability
Corresponding asset environment: USD and US Treasury yields strengthen, BTC and ETH face pressure and pullback.
5. Trading Insights
1. The data-driven rally has phased out; avoid chasing a secondary momentum move after the data
Neutral CPI is unlikely to drive a sustained one-sided trend; tonight's spike is more of a short-term emotional fluctuation.
2. Market focus shifts next: awaiting August inflation data and Fed officials' speeches; September rate hike expectations will be slowly repriced, and the market will return to range-bound rhythm.
3. For traders: neutral CPI scenarios often produce whipsaws and stop-loss hunts; in a choppy environment, chasing rallies or bottoms has low cost-effectiveness.
#创作者激励 🚨 $NET PRE EARNING FLOW
📊 PRE EARNING FLOW: Bullish call positioning into earnings, although overall net premium remains negative.
📅 SHORT DATED FLOW: Buyers focused on the Aug. 21 calls, with additional aggressive positioning in the Sep. 18 calls.
💰 NET PREMIUM: -$5.51M
🟢 $1.8M Calls vs. $80.7K Puts
🎯 EXPECTED MOVE: $25 post earnings
📈 EXPECTED REVENUE AND EPS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER:
• Revenue: Expected to increase to $666.17M from $639.76M 📈
• EPS: Expected to decline to $0.21 from $0.25 📉
👀 NOTABLE FLOW:
🟢 $855.2K Sep. 18 $280 Calls bought above the ask.
🟢 ~$776.7K Aug. 21 $340 Calls, with the majority executed at the ask.
🟢 $405K Aug. 21 $300 Call sweep bought at the ask.If in the future the platform lists Sci-Tech Innovation Board coins or other A-share tokens, then mainstream digital currencies will never have a chance to rise again.
At 8:00 AM, buy Japanese and Korean stocks; at 9:30 AM, trade the large A-shares; at noon, continue with Japanese and Korean stocks; in the afternoon, trade large A-shares; at market close, trade pre-market US stocks; at 9:30 PM, trade US stocks; from 4 to 8 AM, trade after-hours... on weekends, trade altcoins. So who will play with the mainstream then? #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC $SNDK #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
US July CPI data released:
Year-over-year CPI 3.4%, month-over-month 0.1%; core CPI year-over-year 2.5%, month-over-month 0.2%, all in line with market expectations.
No worse-than-expected deterioration in the data, constituting a marginal positive; however, the pace of inflation decline is slower than market expectations.
Overall, this presents a neutral to slightly bullish pattern for stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.
Current inflation remains above the Fed's 2% policy target, and based on this data alone, the possibility of further rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
"Inflation Cooling but Pressure Remains: Policy Games and Market Choices After Data Reveal" What signals did the CPI release actually send!!?? $BTC $ETH have been tempting us to go long all day today! How will $BTC move?
1. Data Meets Expectations, Probability of Pausing Rate Hikes Soars:
- US July CPI YoY at 3.4%, Core CPI YoY at 2.5%, both meeting market expectations and below previous values, confirming the "cooling inflation" trend. Market bets on the Fed pausing rate hikes in September will significantly heat up, possibly even pricing in a December rate cut early, with risk appetite recovering.
- Data confirms: Continuous inflation decline (from the May peak of 4.2%) strengthens market confidence that the Fed is "close to winning" the fight against inflation, providing logical support for risk asset rebounds.
2. Improved Liquidity Expectations Support Gold and Cryptocurrencies:
- Pausing rate hikes means US dollar interest rates have peaked, funding costs decline, and speculative funds return to high-risk assets. Gold, as an "inflation hedge + safe haven" asset, and cryptocurrencies, as "digital gold," will benefit from expectations of looser liquidity.
- Historical analogy: When CPI continuously declined in 2023, Bitcoin surged over 60% in a single month, gold broke key resistance levels, and market optimism about easing monetary policy drove capital inflows.
3. Technical and Capital Factors Resonating, Upward Momentum Building:
- Gold has broken key resistance levels (such as $4400), with clear bullish technical signals; on-chain data for cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin net outflows from exchanges, Ethereum staking hitting new highs) show long-term capital positioning and accumulation of bullish forces.
- Data catalyst: If the market confirms a pause in rate hikes, Bitcoin may break the $65,000 resistance, and Ethereum could challenge the $2000 psychological level.
4. Rising Safe-Haven Demand, Geopolitical Risks as Catalysts:
- Middle East tensions persist, global uncertainty remains. If the market worries about recession risks, some funds may view gold and Bitcoin as hedges, further boosting their demand.
1. Inflation Stickiness Persists, Fed May Maintain Cautious Stance:
- Although CPI cooled, the 3.4% YoY growth remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target and has missed the target for nine consecutive months. Fed officials may emphasize that "inflation risks are not eliminated," continuing a hawkish tone. A September pause is not guaranteed.
- Hawkish voices: Several Fed officials (e.g., Cleveland Fed President) recently expressed support for "gradual rate hikes to avoid future sharp tightening." If data does not clearly point to rate cuts, the market may face policy expectation fluctuations.
2. Data Did Not Exceed Expectations, Market Rebound Lacks Momentum:
- This CPI data "met expectations without surprises," a neutral result lacking strong driving factors. Gold and cryptocurrencies’ rise relies more on "front-running trades." If subsequent data (e.g., PPI, employment) disappoint, the market may quickly pull back.
- Historical warning: In 2022, the market was optimistic due to a brief CPI cooling, but repeated data fluctuations led to aggressive Fed hikes and risk asset crashes.
3. Technical Overbought and Leverage Risks Accumulate:
- Gold is approaching historical overbought zones (e.g., one standard deviation above the 50-day moving average), cryptocurrency leverage is high (over $100 million liquidations network-wide). If data triggers expectation adjustments, large-scale liquidations and sell-offs may occur.
- Key resistance levels: If Bitcoin fails to break $65,000 and Ethereum $2000 effectively, strong resistance will form, triggering technical corrections.
4. Potential Risk Variables Suppress Upside:
- High oil prices: Brent crude nears $90, geopolitical conflicts push energy inflation risks, possibly driving overall CPI higher again, weakening confidence in "continued inflation decline."
- Fundamental vulnerabilities: Cryptocurrency ETF inflows slow, miner selling pressure remains (e.g., MicroStrategy cashing out), lacking new capital support; gold faces potential pressure from slowing central bank purchases.
How to explain the strong market expectation for a pause in rate hikes? If data confirms the inflation cooling trend, does the Fed have reason to remain on hold?
- After gold’s technical breakout of key levels, does this mean an established uptrend? Is the central bank’s ongoing gold buying support underestimated?
Have we overlooked inflation stickiness? If energy prices rebound (e.g., escalation in Middle East conflicts), CPI may rise again, will the Fed change its stance?
- Against the backdrop of slowing cryptocurrency ETF inflows, if the rebound relies only on market sentiment, is it sustainable? Has technical overbought set the stage for a correction?
This CPI data is a "definitive signal" of inflation easing, strengthening market bets on a pause in rate hikes. Risk assets will likely break key resistance levels and start a rebound!
Though data cooled, it missed targets; inflation stickiness combined with geopolitical risks means the Fed may remain cautious. Market front-running gains hide risks; if subsequent data fluctuates or policy expectations waver, risk assets will face secondary correction pressure!
This CPI data provides "limited positive" for the market but does not change the core contradiction of inflation "above target." The short-term rebound in gold and cryptocurrencies is supported but sustainability depends on subsequent economic data (e.g., PPI, employment) and Fed policy statements. Investors should beware of volatility risks from policy expectation swings, manage positions cautiously, and watch key support levels (e.g., gold at $4300, Bitcoin at $63,300). Title/Opening: ⚠️ CPI 3.4%? Don't be fooled by the surface number, this is the real truth!
Body:
The seemingly expected 3.4% actually hides dangers. Please look closely at the details:
1. No year-on-year drop: Compared to last month's 3.0% (or previous value), this 3.4% is actually a rebound! It shows inflation is extremely stubborn.
2. Rate cut dreams shattered: The Fed may not raise rates, but there is absolutely no reason for an emergency rate cut. "High for Longer" remains the main theme.
3. Buying expectations, selling facts: The recent rise in the crypto market has already priced in the good news. With the data released, short-term major funds will very likely seize the opportunity to dump and sell.
Operation advice:
Take profit on long positions, do not chase highs. Wait for a clear direction, beware of a plunge after the US stock market opens tonight. Protect your principal and re-enter after a pullback.
#CPI #BearishNews #RiskWarning #TradingInsights Initiating a position in Cloudflare $Net. Earnings were good on Friday and the subsequent stalling action is most likely to the $2.1 Billion convertible bond offering announced today,🏛️ US CPI Release Imminent: 3 Macro Scenarios and the Fate of BTC and ETH!
Here's the situation: When the US CPI data is released, the financial market will split into 3 distinct scenarios you must master to avoid liquidation traps:
* Above expectations: Persistent inflation forces the Fed to maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer. Capital flees risk assets, and $BTC could plunge 3–8% within hours. Full risk aversion!
* Below expectations: Rate cut expectations explode, smart money floods into the crypto market. BTC and ETH soar 4–10% amid bullish frenzy.
* In line with expectations: The market moves sideways or fluctuates narrowly within 3%, accompanied by a “sell the news” sentiment, then returns to the previous trend.
My view is very clear: never guess the numbers before zero hour.
Pay close attention to core CPI and the intense price swings in the first 15 minutes, as whales like to set up two-way liquidation traps.
In these key macro scenarios, do you manage risk by reducing leverage, or go all in to get ahead of the volatility wave? #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $APR is a no-brainer to go long, insider info, after 12 o'clock it will still pump 20CPI precisely hits expectations, but BTC surges then falls back: the market is really trading the "expectation gap"
US July CPI released:
Overall CPI +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY, Core CPI +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY, all four items fully meet market expectations, inflation continues to cool moderately compared to June.
This data is not a big positive but leans dovish: it further reduces the necessity for a September rate hike but does not provide new catalysts beyond expectations.
So BTC's surge then fall is not surprising—the market had already priced in "weak employment + cooling inflation," and after the data release, it triggered the typical buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Currently BTC is around $63965, still struggling to break away from the battle near 63800.
The focus now is not on CPI but whether the price can confirm:
Holding above 64500 → then look at 65300;
Falling below 63800 → retest 63200.
A truly strong market refuses to fall after good news is realized.
Data determines expectations, price reaction determines direction. $ETH #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ A change in the crypto market is happening that is easy to overlook: the money hasn't disappeared, but it's becoming increasingly selective. In the past, when judging the altcoin market, many people only looked at whether BTC had risen. Now it's no longer enough. As ETFs, institutional funds, and traditional financial trading systems continue to enter crypto, BTC is becoming increasingly embedded in the global risk asset pricing framework. CME research shows that before 2020, the 60-day rolling correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 mostly fluctuated around -0.2 to 0.2; After 2020, the correlation overall rose to the 0 to 0.6 range, reaching about 0.48 at one point in April 2025. (cmegroup.com) This means: looking at BTC in the future, you can't just look at BTC. US Treasury yields, the US dollar, Nasdaq, AI tech stocks' risk appetite, and ETF capital flows are all becoming external pricing variables for BTC. But more importantly—just because BTC is strong doesn't mean altcoins will definitely rise. A true knockoff market needs to go through a complete round of "risk diffusion." Layer One: Global risk appetite opens first. Capital must first be willing to take on risk. If Nasdaq, semiconductor, and AI tech stocks remain strong, it usually means the global funding risk budget remains adequate. Conversely, if tech stocks start to deleverage quickly, US Treasury yields rise, and the dollar strengthens, crypto will find it hard to remain unaffected. This year, there has already been a very typical cross-market capital competition. Reuters 6Analysis of Altcoin Market After Latest CPI Data Release 🔥
CPI met expectations, leaving altcoins a survival environment but no catalyst for an explosion; without a breakout in the main market, altcoins only have localized opportunities, so don’t expect a full altcoin season to arrive immediately. $ETH $SOL $SNDK
This CPI overall and core CPI fully met market expectations, with no unexpected positive or negative surprises.
Macro perspective: September rate cut expectations remain within the original range, not significantly revised, and the market lacks new strong catalysts.
Altcoins are high-beta risk assets with volatility significantly greater than BTC and ETH; small-cap coins have poor liquidity, higher risks of price spikes and contract liquidations.
1. Market Fund Behavior
1. At the moment of data release: rapid back-and-forth price spikes, stop-loss hunting on both long and short sides; mainstream altcoins followed BTC’s fluctuations, small-cap coins showed chaotic price moves, most instant moves were algorithmic noise and do not reflect real capital sentiment.
2. Fund characteristics after data release:
- No large-scale inflow of new funds into altcoins; capital remains defensive, prioritizing holding BTC, unwilling to spread widely into high-risk small coins.
- Sector divergence is severe: some narrative-supported sectors have localized pulse rallies; the vast majority of ordinary altcoins and Meme coins lack capital attention, continuing to oscillate downward.
- ETH/BTC exchange rate remains weak, indicating market risk appetite has not opened up, and true altcoin season conditions are unmet.
2. Performance Differentiation Among Altcoin Tiers
1. Mid-to-large cap altcoins (SOL, BICO, etc.)
Follow the main market with higher elasticity than BTC. If the main market holds the range, short-term pulse opportunities exist; if BTC breaks below the 64000 watershed, the correction will be much stronger than BTC.
2. Small-cap altcoins
Liquidity is thin, no independent rallies. Positive news lacks enough incremental funds to drive price up; if the main market weakens, selling pressure will lead to significant declines.
3. MEME coins
Purely sentiment-driven, only short-term pulses with poor sustainability; under CPI meeting expectations, it’s hard to see sustained big rallies.
3. Bull and Bear Logic
✅ Bullish
1. CPI did not surprise negatively, avoiding systemic sell-off risk from inflation rebound; the bull market’s underlying base remains intact, preserving an environment for altcoin oscillation and speculation.
2. BTC spot ETFs still maintain net inflows, stabilizing the main market base, preventing a full collapse.
⚠️ Core Risks
1. No new positive catalysts; the market’s hoped-for unexpected rate cut benefits did not materialize, lacking momentum for collective altcoin breakout.
2. Existing capital game environment means funds selectively hype certain narratives, making broad rallies unlikely.
3. If BTC breaks below the key 64000 support, regardless of altcoin stories, most will follow the sell-off.
4. Market focus will shift to Fed officials’ speeches, PCE inflation, and other upcoming data, with ongoing uncertainty.
4. Three Scenario Simulations
1. Neutral (highest current probability)
BTC remains range-bound between 63700-65200. Altcoin sectors diverge, only hot sectors have short-term rallies; most coins oscillate sideways, no full altcoin season.
2. Optimistic low probability
ETFs continue large net inflows, volume expands, BTC breaks above 65500 resistance; ETH/BTC rate rises synchronously, capital spreads outward, driving collective altcoin rebound.
3. Pessimistic low probability
BTC volume drops below 64000 watershed, main market weakens, altcoins start collective correction, small caps suffer amplified declines.
5. Four Core Altcoin Observation Signals
1. Whether BTC 64000 support holds; this is the main market base for altcoin survival. If lost, altcoins will struggle to stand alone.
2. ETH/BTC exchange rate: rising rate = capital willing to attack altcoins; falling rate = market risk aversion, limited altcoin opportunities.
3. Confirm real market moves 1-4 hours after release; do not judge by instant price spikes at CPI release.
4. Sector profit effect: whether multiple coins strengthen collectively; if only individual coins move, it’s just existing speculative capital, with poor sustainability.
(Personal analysis only, not investment advice)
Steady progress to all, wishing you great wealth and continuous improvement CPI fully meets expectations: inflation officially cools down, BTC shows no unexpected market movement
This time, all four core US CPI data sets precisely hit market expectations, with no surprises or shocks, representing a completely neutral outcome.
Overall CPI year-on-year is 3.4% (expected 3.4%, previous 3.5%), month-on-month 0.1% (expected 0.1%, previous -0.4%);
Core CPI year-on-year is 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous 2.6%), month-on-month 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous flat).
The data clearly confirms: US inflation continues to cool.
Both overall and core year-on-year rates continue to decline, with core CPI year-on-year falling to the lowest range since January this year, indicating the high inflation pressure phase is completely over.
However, it is worth noting: the month-on-month rate turned from negative to positive, meaning the pace of price decline has slowed, and inflation has not completely disappeared, only the cooling has slowed.
From the component structure perspective:
Housing inflation continues to weaken, core goods remain at low levels, continuing the trend of inflation suppression;
The only disturbance comes from the narrowing decline in energy prices, which is also the core reason for the month-on-month rebound.
Impact on rate hike expectations
The data fully matches pricing, with the probability of a September rate hike almost unchanged, fluctuating around 50%.
This will neither trigger a liquidity boost from concentrated short covering nor cause a new round of rate hike panic; overall monetary policy expectations remain stable.
Impact on BTC market
After the data release, BTC maintained sideways consolidation around 63600, showing no directional movement.
The market had already priced in the logic of "steady inflation decline, no unexpected easing," so this CPI cannot break the current range-bound structure.
Core outlook
No violent one-sided market movement tonight; CPI has resolved short-term uncertainty but has not provided a new direction.
Market attention will quickly shift to tomorrow's PPI and Friday's retail sales data; the remaining key inflation chain data will determine the subsequent trend slope.
In the short term, BTC is very likely to be locked in a narrow range of 63000–64000, awaiting new data to break the deadlock.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
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