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CLARITY dodged again, the SEC won't wait anymore, will hold a meeting the day after tomorrow to write the rules themselves. Do you know where the stuck? It's pretty absurd to say—"Can the president issue coins at the same time?" This issue has been a two-party dispute since July, and still hasn't figured it out. The CLARITY bill passed the House last year and the Senate Banking Committee passed it 15-9 this May. Everyone thought it would be implemented before the August recess. So what happened? Thune waited until 4 a.m. on August 8 before submitting a motion to the cloture, kicking the ball straight into the afternoon of September 15. Note, the vote on September 15 wasn't about the bill itself, but about "whether to start the debate"—the formal discussion hadn't even started yet. What about the votes? Republicans have 53 seats, Cloture needs 60 votes, and even if everyone is solid, they'll need to bring in 7 more Democrats. Moral clauses, stablecoin yields (banks fear deposits moving), and illegal finance/DeFi—none of these three pitfalls are filled. Galaxy Research directly cut this year's approval probability from 50% to 30%, TD Cowen gave 25%, Polymarket was even harsher, down to 16%. Then the SEC stopped waiting. At the public meeting at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 14, the first agenda item was "Regulation Crypto Assets," a vote on whether to publicly solicit customized issuance rules for crypto investment contracts. Atkins had already said in July, "If Congress doesn't legislate, we'll do it ourselves," but now it seems it's not just empty talk—it's real action. But let me be clear: don't get worked up—this is just about "whether to show the draft for everyone to criticize." The final rule is still separated from public review, revision, and vote, taking at least a year or so. Moreover, this rule deals with token issuance and fundraising, not a redefinition of BTC and ETH. Speaking of $BTC and $ETH, these two should breathe a sigh of relief. In the joint guidance issued by the SEC and CFTC in March this year, BTC, ETH, $SOL, XRP, ADA, DOT were clearly listed together as "digital commodities," under CFTC regulation. The CLARITY Act classifies them in the same way. So regardless of whether the bill passes or not, the commodity nature of Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently stable, and the future meeting won't affect them. But stability is stability; don't think it has nothing to do with you. If CLARITY goes bad again on September 15, Lummis said market structure legislation could be delayed until 2030. What did it rely on in the past few years? It depended on SEC divisional rules and enforcement actions. Departmental rules can be changed by the new chairman, and courts can also issue a new explanation today. The March guidance looks appealing now, but no one can say how effective it will be if a lawsuit breaks out. So my judgment: BTC and ETH won't be directly impacted in the short term, so they can proceed as they should, but if regulatory uncertainty isn't lifted, institutional entry will keep dragging in. The real headache comes from small and medium-sized project teams—with funding rules in place and compliance costs hanging overhead, issuing a token feels like stepping on a landmine. The next day is worth watching, mainly depending on where the "investment contract" boundaries are defined in the draft, whether there are safe harbors and registration exemptions, but don't use this as a positive outcome—it's just a procedural vote. September 15 is the real checkpoint. Seven Democrats—if they can win them over, they survive; if not, they disperse. Personally, I'm not optimistic. Both parties are just putting on a show about the moral clause; neither wants to compromise first. Let's wait, it's not the first time we've waited. #CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation