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$BTC gaining ~1% while ETH remains nearly flat suggests selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound. With the 30Y yield at its highest level since 2007 and expectations shifting away from a September hike, markets are navigating a tricky mix of persistent term premium and a potentially softer policy path. My view: $BTC can continue to show relative strength in this environment, but $ETH ’s lack of confirmation makes it too early to call this a durable risk-on move. Gold’s bullisAltcoins are getting hit hard right now. Audiera's $BEAT token has fallen close to -14% in a day and roughly -78% over the week. Biconomy's $BICO is down around -50% over seven days. $KAITO has dropped more than -25% weekly. $H and $APRtokens are also under pressure, though live figures for those two are too unclear to state with confidence right now.
A steep drop doesn't confirm the bottom. Sellers can keep pushing prices down even after a coin looks cheap. Rather than asking how far it's already fallen, ask whether the selling has actually stopped. In a fast-moving market, patience often beats trying to time the exact low.
NFA
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals
$BTC $ETHDuring the collective sell-off, $SPCX behaved unusually steadily, especially with the next batch of 7%, or 319 million shares, unlocking on August 20.
It's hard to say whether funds are buying in before the unlock to induce a pump or if arbitrage funds are entering early ahead of the Nasdaq weight adjustment on September 18.
The former suggests a gradual decline after the August 20 unlock, while the latter implies buying support could last until September 18.
Generally, the biggest selling pressure on SPCX stock price is between 155-175; holders below this range may be reluctant to sell, while those above might chase prices up to the 200-300 range.
If next:
Recovering 146.23 and then holding above 150: indicates genuine support, temporarily invalidating the pump suspicion.
Closing between 143–145: price remains stable before unlock, direction uncertain.
Breaking below the VWAP around 141.7, and then losing 140 at the close: suspicion of a pump-and-dump increases significantly.
On August 20, a volume surge breaking below 140 and failing to rebound: basically confirms this round is providing liquidity for unlocking shares to be absorbed, with the next likely test at 135.
On the unlock day, a huge volume but holding 140–142 and closing above 143: instead indicates new supply is absorbed by the market, possibly repeating the "sell the expectation, buy the fact" pattern from the first unlock.#The corporate treasury story of $BTC has encountered the Strategy variable, while the institutional story of $ETH is still waiting for the staking ETF to truly open.
Strategy and Michael Saylor have always been the soul figures of the BTC corporate treasury narrative. In the past, when the market saw Strategy continuously buying coins, it felt that there was a long-term buying force behind BTC. Recently, with more discussions about Strategy-related selling, pausing purchases, dollar reserves, and preferred stock arrangements, the market has begun to realize: corporate treasuries are not faith machines; even if companies are optimistic about BTC, they must manage cash flow, financing costs, and capital structure.
This is a necessary demystification for $BTC. BTC cannot forever rely on one company’s purchases to maintain faith. The significance of Strategy should shift from "always backing the bottom" to "a corporate treasury case." It proves that listed companies can put BTC on their balance sheets, and also shows that doing so faces constraints from financial engineering, shareholder returns, debt, and market volatility. For BTC to become a global asset, it must have more diversified buying power rather than relying on a single heroic narrative.
The institutional story of $ETH follows a different path. ETH also has ETFs and institutional attention, but what truly moves institutions is not "a certain company continuously buying," but on-chain yields and application-layer value. The key question for ETH is: can staking yields be smoothly captured by ETFs or compliant products? Can DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA convince institutions that ETH is the foundational asset of on-chain finance? If these questions are resolved, ETH’s institutional buying will resemble yield and tech infrastructure allocation rather than corporate treasury reserves.
This is the difference in the institutionalization paths of BTC and ETH. BTC enters institutional view through balance sheets and macro reserves, while ETH enters through yield and on-chain finance. BTC’s issue is not to overly rely on Strategy; ETH’s issue is that staking and application value have not yet been fully packaged into products that institutions are willing to buy at scale.
In a high-interest-rate environment, this difference is critical. BTC has no yield, but it sells scarcity and non-sovereign attributes; ETH has yield, but the yield must be compared to U.S. Treasuries, minus volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Institutions buying BTC can treat it as a gold substitute; institutions buying ETH must do the math: staking yield, fees, risks, liquidity—whether it is truly worthwhile.
Therefore, when writing about the institutionalization of BTC and ETH today, it’s best not to mix them into one thing. BTC is moving from a corporate treasury myth to diversified allocation; ETH is moving from a tech ecosystem story to a yield asset test. One needs to shed the shadow of a major buyer, the other needs to prove that on-chain yields can be accepted by institutions.
BTC needs more buyers; ETH needs a clearer yield framework. Both are institutionalizing, but they are on two completely different paths. On the 18th, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that there will be no talks or dialogue with Iran now or in the future. He also said that the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran remains fully effective, the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally, and all mines have been cleared or detonated.
This news itself will not directly cause a major surge or crash in cryptocurrencies.
It is equivalent to: the biggest bomb's fuse has not been lit for now, but the fuse has not been cut either, so subsequent volatility will be amplified. The market will largely depend on whether military clashes occur afterward; without conflict, the trend will return to its original technical pattern; if something happens in the strait, it will be a clear negative factor.I've recently been observing a very unusual data point:
BTC dropped from 126,000 to 64,000, nearly halving, but U didn't crash along with it.
In the last bear market, the total stablecoin supply shrank by nearly 30% from peak to bottom.
Back then, it wasn't just BTC falling; even the on-exchange USD liquidity was withdrawing, meaning money was truly leaving Crypto.
But this time it's different.
The total market cap of stablecoins recently peaked around 322B, and currently remains about 301B, only down about 7%.
In other words:
BTC dropped nearly 50%, but the on-exchange U remains at historically high levels.
This suggests the capital structure between the two bear markets might be completely different.
Last round: capital directly left Crypto.
This round: capital first leaves risk assets, converting into U and staying on-exchange waiting.
Of course, U still being there doesn't mean BTC will be bought tomorrow, nor should all stablecoins be considered as bottom-fishing bullets.
The next step is to watch exchange stablecoin balances.
The conclusion is:
This round, the market isn't out of money; rather, money is temporarily unwilling to take on risk.
So what we should do now is not chase the rebound, but start selecting truly high-quality assets worth accumulating in batches. $VVV surged 10% in a single day, finally an "AI coin that can make money" has appeared
VVV rose 10% intraday today, trading around $13.3, standing out brightly in the mostly green AI sector.
1. The core driver is real money
Venice AI (founded by serial entrepreneur Eric Worriss) announced annual revenue exceeding $100 million. AI concept coins are everywhere, but most only tell stories; this one truly has revenue, profit, and a business model. The market voted with real money today.
2. The positioning hits the mark
Venice focuses on privacy AI, not storing user data. In an environment of tightening regulations, "not touching user data" has become the strongest moat.
3. My judgment
The revenue boost is genuine, but after a 10% single-day rise, there will inevitably be short-term profit-taking. Consider buying again only if it pulls back to 12-12.5 without breaking below. Also, a reminder: the overall AI sector dropped over 3% today, don’t expect this one to carry the entire sector alone. A coin that can make money is like a man who can make money—charming, but you also have to choose the right time to enter~Okb and other trading platforms used to focus on: number of coin types, transaction fees, and trading depth. Now the competition is about: asset quantity, capital efficiency, product diversity, institutional services, and cross-asset trading capabilities.
Whoever can first connect the chain of "crypto assets—stocks—RWA—yields—lending—derivatives—institutional capital" is more likely to become the next-generation global digital financial platform. Therefore, crypto exchanges are evolving from "places to trade" into financial super apps that can trade and manage global assets. And this may be the real next competition after the crypto industry enters the mainstream financial system.#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The long end of the US Treasury yield curve has really been "acting up" lately.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to a range of 5.29% to 5.32%, directly touching the highest level since 2007, like an old buddy who's been holding back for over a decade finally standing up and shouting: "You want me to stay cheap? No way!" The nearby 10-year Treasury yield is not to be outdone, climbing to about 4.72%, the two in harmony creating tension across the long-end market.
Behind this, the US Treasury, the "debtor," is getting busier and busier. The debt scale keeps expanding, the pressure to issue long-term bonds is rolling like a snowball growing bigger, and inflation stubbornly remains above the Federal Reserve's target. So, the long-end yields have no choice but to "raise their prices" to express dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, June data shows that three "old clients"—the UK, Japan, and China—have quietly reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, as if telling this old buddy: "The market's unstable lately, so we're pulling back a bit."
Adding to the excitement is the AI funding wave. Wave after wave of tech companies are rushing into the investment-grade bond market "asking for money," instantly making long-term funds highly sought after, with everyone scrambling fiercely. With funds being heavily diverted, US Treasuries naturally find it harder to please buyers and can only continue to raise their "price."
For $BTC, the short-term outlook is bullish! 😱😱😱 The person who told me to "never sell"—his company has been selling for three consecutive weeks
The whole internet is spreading Saylor's words: "I have never sold a single coin."
Technically, he’s not lying. The coins being sold belong to the publicly listed company Strategy, not his personal wallet. He still holds 840,000 BTC on his books, accounting for 4% of the entire network, remaining the largest corporate holder worldwide.
But looking at the timeline: at the end of May, they sold 32 coins to test the waters; from late June to early July, they sold 3,588 coins; last week, they sold another 1,690 coins, cashing out $108 million. That’s three consecutive weeks. And they’re selling at a loss—cost basis 75,385, selling price 64,262, losing about $11,000 per coin.
The "never sell" promise was first broken at the end of May, and in July the board raised the selling authorization from $1.25 billion to $5 billion.
Why must they sell? Preferred stock dividends. Q2 dividends alone were $400 million, compared to only $49 million in the same period last year. If the coin price doesn’t rise, the machines have to be paid with coins. Faith is faith, but creditors are creditors.
The most painful lesson here is: every die-hard holder has been taught a lesson—you treat others’ faith as your own stop-loss, but when others liquidate, they won’t take you down with them.
Saylor personally hasn’t sold. But retail investors don’t have a second wallet to separate from. If the coins in your hand drop 30%, that’s a real 30% loss.
The 840,000 coins are still there; only 0.6% sold this year, so no panic yet. But the fact that "the biggest buyer has become a weekly scheduled seller" is more important than how many coins are sold. ETFs are flowing out, MSTR is selling, and $63,000 is still holding—that’s resilience. But if the reason it holds is because retail investors are taking the baton, that’s not confidence, that’s passing the relay.
I’m not saying the bull market is over. I’m saying: from today on, don’t use "Saylor hasn’t sold" as your reason not to set a stop-loss. He really hasn’t sold—his company has.
How much of your "never sell" faith remains? 1: Full throttle, buy more as it drops 2: Set a stop-loss, this statement has cost me dearly 3: Already out, watching your show $BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The short-term spike in long-term bond yields is more of a one-time market reaction to fiscal and price expectations, and should not be simply equated with a permanent establishment of high long-term interest rates.
Overseas central banks' portfolio adjustments are routine asset rebalancing, not concentrated risk-averse flight; active corporate financing instead reflects ongoing endogenous economic demand. The overseas bond market's linked adjustments merely follow the global term premium recovery and do not indicate a systemic risk outbreak in the bond market.
Rising interest rates will cause short-term disturbances, but transmission to the real economy is delayed. As long as the employment base remains solid and inflation does not rebound, monetary policy will not continue to tighten. Various assets are temporarily impacted by sentiment, but medium- to long-term trends still depend on fundamentals, so there is no need to overstate crisis expectations. The AI transformation of mining companies makes $BTC more like an energy asset, while the AI Agent narrative brings $ETH closer to application entry points.
Recently, the AI data center agreement between Riot and Anthropic has brought Bitcoin mining companies back into market focus. Mining companies were previously seen as BTC leverage, but now they are being regarded as energy and data center companies. They hold power, sites, machine rooms, grid connection capabilities, and high power consumption operational experience—exactly what AI data centers lack the most. As AI heats up, Bitcoin miners suddenly realize that their most valuable asset may not be the mining machines but the electricity.
This development is significant for $BTC. BTC has long been criticized for its power consumption, but AI data centers are also fiercely competing for electricity. The market is finally starting to discuss energy in a more mature way: who can get cheap electricity, who can manage load, and who can turn power into digital economic value. BTC mining converts electricity into network security and currency issuance, while AI data centers convert electricity into model capabilities and computing services. Though different, both demonstrate that the digital economy ultimately depends on real-world energy.
Therefore, BTC’s industrial chain is expanding from "mining coins" to "energy infrastructure." The AI transformation of mining companies does not mean the BTC story is invalid; rather, it shows that the power and data center capabilities built around BTC can be revalued by the broader digital economy. This will separate mining company stocks from BTC itself: mining companies sell electricity and machine rooms, while BTC sells scarcity and non-sovereign assets.
$ETH takes a different path in the AI boom. ETH does not directly compete with AI for electricity; it is more likely to integrate with AI Agents, on-chain accounts, automated payments, smart contract permissions, data rights confirmation, and settlement networks. If future AI agents do more than chat—actually executing trades, calling services, managing funds, and subscribing to data—they will need wallets, permissions, payments, and clearing. ETH’s smart contract ecosystem happens to be one of the most imaginable infrastructures for such scenarios.
This is the difference between BTC and ETH in the AI era. BTC connects to the underlying energy and computing power, while ETH connects to applications and settlement interfaces. BTC asks: how much real-world resource does the digital world need to maintain scarce assets? ETH asks: after AI agents enter economic activities, what kind of on-chain finance and permission systems are needed?
Of course, both stories are still in early stages and should not be overstated. The AI transformation of mining companies does not guarantee BTC will rise, and AI Agents going on-chain does not mean ETH will explode immediately. The market is just beginning to re-understand that AI is not a single-asset story; it will affect electricity, storage, chips, data centers, on-chain payments, and financial protocols.
If AI continues to expand, BTC and ETH may capture traffic at different layers. BTC captures the narrative of energy and digital hard assets, while ETH captures the narrative of applications, accounts, and automated settlements. One leans toward underlying resources, the other toward financial operating systems. The more AI develops, the more this division of labor is worth watching. 8月18日ETH打出低点后走出短时暴力V型反弹，短线弹性表现强于BTC，但并未走出独立趋势，市场多空博弈激烈，究竟是底部反转开启，仅仅下跌后的诱多反弹，两种观点冲突明显。行情既受大盘整体资金带动，同时被ETF资金分化、生态解锁抛压、巨鲸筹码异动、宏观地缘等多重因素约束。 1、合约盘面数据（严格使用原图24小时数据） 全网合约持仓总量1213.8亿美元，24小时市场成交额1546.1亿美元，环比上涨15.04%，市场整体交投活跃度回暖。 清算热力图显示ETH关键流动性区间：上方1918‑1944堆积大量空单清算盘，是本轮反弹首要强阻力；下方1894为多头核心保护支撑位，一旦实体跌破，将触发连锁多头爆仓，反弹逻辑失效。 大盘24小时全网爆仓2.4亿美元，空单爆仓规模大于多单，本轮拉升以清洗空头杠杆为主。虽然大盘完成空头清算，但ETH盘面并未出现持续性放量，增量资金进场力度弱于BTC。 主流交易所BTC多空比值同步回落、资金费率大幅走弱，侧面反映整个加密市场散户多头热度边际降温。对于高弹性的ETH而言，市场追高意愿下滑，不利于持续性反弹行情。 2、现货ETF资金：机构分歧显著，没有形成一致净$BTC: Funding Rate Hits 20-Month High
The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has risen to its highest level in nearly 20 months. Bulls are willing to pay higher costs to hold positions, indicating a clear increase in bullish leverage bets. However, the price remains around $64,000 and has yet to effectively break through the resistance at about $66,300.
More critically, $57,000 is the key liquidation price for leveraged long positions. The current market liquidity is thin, and once triggered, liquidation-driven selling could be sharply amplified. The crowded long positions are both fuel for upward movement and a powder keg for downside risk.
U.S. Treasuries: 5.33% Risk-Free Yield Is Draining Liquidity
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. When risk-free assets offer over 5% annualized returns, the opportunity cost of BTC, which generates no cash flow, is significantly increased. Gold has risen 33% over the same period, while BTC has dropped 46%—the "digital gold" narrative is under pressure.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 New large position opened on-chain: 45 orders totaling 500,000 U, SPCX long average price 143.32
A new long order just appeared on SPCX, 45 trades executed from 15:45 to 16:11, average price 143.32, total position 500,200 U.
This address is a swing trader ranked on the 7-day and 30-day PnL lists, trading both long and short. Equity 6.13 million U, historical profit 752,500 U, win rate 48.1%, CopyScore 70.5.
The win rate is not top-tier, but the account has survived, showing a clear swing trading style.
Currently, it is a newly opened long position with no same-direction holdings. If it continues to add positions, it indicates strengthening expectations for SPCX; if it quickly pumps then reverses, it is a short-term trade.
Public data ends here for now; we will watch how it manages this position later.
If you like my sharing, please follow me Cash positions have dropped to a historic low of 3.5%, and institutions are extremely overweight stocks: Bank of America sounds the alarm, is the midterm election curse about to come true again?
When institutional investors across the entire market place all their bets in the same direction, the seemingly unbreakable bull market consensus is often the moment when liquidity is most fragile.
According to Bank of America's (BofA) latest August Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS), the allocation to equities by global professional fund managers has surged to the highest level in nearly five years. A net 56% of surveyed fund managers are overweight stocks, marking the highest reading since November 2021; meanwhile, the average cash position held by institutions has been compressed to a historically low 3.5%.
In BofA’s well-known contrarian trading indicator system, cash levels falling below 4.0% are typically defined as triggering a sell signal in the "extreme greed zone."
BofA’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett bluntly points out that global large capital is currently trapped in a highly self-consistent yet extremely crowded illusion—the market is almost unanimously betting on "no macroeconomic hard landing, no Fed surprise rate hikes, no tech giants cutting AI capital expenditures, no political black swans from the election, and no shorts at all."
The survey shows that 72% of institutions firmly believe the Fed will not raise rates before the November midterm elections, and 71% think cloud providers will not cut AI spending this year. Yet the absurdity lies in the fact that respondents simultaneously list the "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk in the market and view the massive capital expenditures of mega cloud providers as the most likely powder keg to ignite the next credit event.
When all the bulls are already fully loaded on the boat, who will provide the marginal incremental funds to push valuations higher?
An even more severe test comes from the seasonal squeeze dictated by historical cycle patterns.
BTIG’s Chief Market Technical Strategist Jonathan Krinsky issued a major warning: from August 18 to October 11 has historically been one of the worst periods for U.S. stocks during midterm election years. Statistics show that over the past thirty-plus years since 1990, except for 2006, the S&P 500 index has without exception experienced at least a 7% deep pullback during the August to October period of every midterm election year.
The current reality is: the S&P 500 has already gained over 13% year-to-date and is plateauing at historic highs, while the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have been pushed above the high alert levels of 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Coupled with international oil prices approaching the $90 mark, the rising real financing costs and inflationary pressures are ruthlessly weighing down on high-valuation equity assets.
Hartnett and Krinsky’s joint advice is highly consistent: faced with extremely crowded positions and a high-risk time window, the rational strategy is to decisively reduce overall risk exposure, defend positions, or implement structural hedges, rather than blindly leveraging up on the cliff edge to chase gains.
With cash bottomed out, stocks fully loaded, and U.S. Treasury yields soaring, do you think U.S. stocks can break the midterm election deep pullback curse that has persisted since 1990? Facing the high-risk window in the next two months, will you choose to lock in profits or hold the long positions in line with consensus expectations?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SKHX The smart money direction has shifted from divergence to clearly bearish.
The swing wallet that previously held about 232k USD long positions continues to sell and has now completely exited; meanwhile, a high-ranking wallet holds about 403k USD short positions. The mid-term wallet still retains about 111k USD long positions, but the scale is already weak.
Short-term funds have completed their withdrawal, and large short positions are beginning to dominate the structure. Due to the significant difference in trading rhythms between long and short sources, I am temporarily not including $SKHX in the live portfolio, only treating it as a key watchlist target for the next round. 针对现货比特币与以太币交易所交易基金（ETF）的净流入数据，市场普遍存在误读。一位交易员指出，尽管其投资组合中九个仓位有八个处于盈利状态，仍选择对其中一个仓位进行做空操作，理由在于BTC与ETH的实际资金面并不如表面数据所显示的那样乐观。该观点认为，当前ETF净流入的相当一部分源于机构内部的资产重组与短期套利资金，而非市场所预期的长期配置型买盘。此类短期热钱具备“进出迅速”的典型特征，仅追逐短期趋势，不会在市场中长期停留。 对BTC-ETF的资金结构分析显示，确实存在养老金账户及长期配置资金逐步建仓的迹象，但买入节奏极为克制，通常在价格回调阶段小规模分批介入，在价格快速拉升时则暂停买入，避免追高。相较之下，ETH-ETF的资金流入更多体现为交易型资金的参与，投机属性明显更为浓厚。一旦整体市场情绪转弱，ETH-ETF的资金撤退速度预计将显著快于BTC-ETF。 业内观察进一步指出，ETF资金流入与币价上涨之间并不存在即时的因果关系。若现货市场同步存在显著的抛压，ETF的买入力量将被现货卖盘完全对冲，进而出现“资金持续流入但币价横盘不动”的背离现象。针对未来如何甄别资金面的真实性，可参考的In a sharp altcoin crash, chasing the bottom statistically carries a high probability of loss. How can we distinguish between coins whose rebound expectations are already priced in and those that are not yet reflected? During the recent sharp decline, $BEAT fell by -24.26% and $H by -23.55%, liquidating the chasing buying pressure from new highs. $APR showed a gradual downtrend, $KAITO lost its upward momentum, and $BICO, which previously led the rise, also reversed direction. This correction is accurately interpreted not as bad news for specific coins but as a reduction in risk appetite across altcoins in general. - Momentum signal: The sharp drops in $BEAT and $H suggest that leveraged and chasing buy positions in highly volatile coins were intensively liquidated. - Risk signal: The simultaneous weakness of $KAITO and $BICO indicates a slowdown in new capital inflows and exhaustion of upward momentum in individual coins. - Market structure: The altcoin weakness acts as a channel promoting capital flow into BTC and ETH, resulting in a relative strength increase of BTC compared to altcoins 先看核心数据：巅峰时期韩国本土加密市场日交易量一度接近韩国股市KOSPI的12%，泡菜溢价长期居高不下，全民炒币、年轻人加杠杆冲山寨是常态；如今本土五大交易所交易量萎缩到仅占股市成交额1%左右，交易量同比暴跌近九成，八成散户已经停止频繁交易。大量散户资金被今年暴涨的本土半导体股票吸走，从加密市场撤离冲进股市，是泡沫降温最核心的原因。 资金层面还有一个关键信号：已经连续18个月稳定币净流出，累计超104亿美元的韩元资金不断从本土交易所转移到海外平台，本土场内投机热度快速冷却，但投机资金只是外流，并没有彻底消失，跑到境外平台去交易高杠杆衍生品了。泡菜溢价长期维持在0附近，甚至频繁出现反向泡菜溢价，代表之前那种全民抢币的狂热情绪已经不复存在，最疯狂的那一段泡沫周期已经走完。 监管层面持续收紧也进一步戳破本土泡沫：8月最新新规把转账溯源规则覆盖全部交易，没有金额门槛，合规成本大幅抬升，本土交易所不能提供合约杠杆，本土市场很难再重现当年疯狂炒作氛围。 但不能说投机彻底消失：韩国散户的投机属性没有改变，只是资金暂时切换赛道。一旦韩股行情走弱，或者加密市场出现一波强势趋势行情，这批资金随$SNDK has finally come down
The short positions of Wang Duanniao probably don't need to be liquidated anymore
Yesterday, I chased a short position at $1625
Immediately got stuck after opening
Floating loss of several tens of points
I thought the memory super cycle was not over yet
Prepared to hold the position
But today it dropped back to the cost line
If nothing unexpected happens
It should start to be profitable from now on
-------------------------
I have always believed
SNDK has not broken through $2400
$MU has not broken through $1300
$SKHYNIX has not broken through the previous high of $2000
None of these indicate a continuation of the memory super cycle
The trend ended during the last collective crash of over 50%
No matter how much it fluctuates now
It's just a rebound after an oversell
And it is constantly being propped up by positive news
When the positive news materializes, it turns into negative
Moreover
These semiconductor companies have long since priced in several years of future stock value
Every supply agreement for future AI infrastructure
Has already been factored into the current stock price
Cherish every opportunity to short semiconductors.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Anh em ơi, một tín hiệu vĩ mô đáng chú ý vừa xuất hiện: lợi suất trái phiếu kho bạc Mỹ kỳ hạn 30 năm đã vượt qua đỉnh của năm 2007. Diễn biến này không chỉ đơn thuần là một cú sốc thị trường, mà còn phản ánh một thực tế đáng suy ngẫm: ngay cả "tài sản an toàn nhất" toàn cầu cũng đang bị bán tháo. Dòng tiền lớn đang rời khỏi kênh trú ẩn truyền thống và tìm kiếm những điểm đến mới. Câu chuyện trở nên kịch tính hơn khi nhìn vào bức tranh tổng thể. Nếu trái phiếu dài hạn của Mỹ không còn được ưa chuThe abnormal ONE has been cleared, but trust cannot be restored just by pressing the rollback button.
Harmony has confirmed: Shard 0 and Shard 1 rolled back to August 11, 23:25:37 UTC, to remove the attacker’s illegal minting of 2.385 trillion ONE; meanwhile, over 109,000 user transactions will be permanently discarded.
Market interpretation is bearish for ONE. The abnormal minting being cleared does alleviate supply shock; however, the full network rollback directly impacts on-chain finality and user trust, putting pressure on ecosystem applications, exchange deposits and withdrawals, and holder confidence.
In the short term, focus on three things: network recovery progress, the pace of deposit and withdrawal reopening, and whether ONE shows volume-supported buying. Technical fixes do not equal immediate trust restoration.
Source: Wu Shuo
#ONE #Crypto100WMeta faces lawsuits from 29 states with a theoretical penalty exposure of up to $1.4 trillion, driving Mag7 funds to short-term risk aversion and exit. The core issue lies in whether judicial accountability will completely restructure the platform's recommendation algorithms and monetization efficiency.
On Tuesday, Meta's stock price fell 3%, leading the Mag7 decline list, reflecting that event risk is spreading from a single legal lawsuit to a contraction in risk appetite across large tech stocks. The expected fine range mentioned in the California trial, from $193 billion to $1.4 trillion, directly raised the tail risk pricing cost in the derivatives market.
The factors driving the current market are ranked as follows: the risk of judicial precedent forcing product design changes (infinite scroll and recommendation algorithms), the expected squeeze on free cash flow from potential civil fines, and reputational volatility triggered by management testifying in court. The previous $942 million penalty imposed by New Mexico confirmed the feasibility of the public nuisance theory in regulatory accountability.
A bullish or rebound scenario is based on the premise that litigation risk has been priced in prematurely. If the California federal district judge hints during the five-week trial that the final compensation is closer to the New Mexico level and avoids the extreme hundreds of billions range, or if restrictive measures are limited to age verification only, it will trigger short covering. The variable to watch is the evidence presented in court regarding the cost of algorithm modification. The signal that this scenario fails is if the judge explicitly supports an injunction requiring the removal of core addictive features.
A bearish or continued valuation restructuring scenario stems from regulatory headwinds impacting the business model foundation. If the judge ultimately rules that Meta must remove infinite scroll and content recommendation algorithms, it will directly weaken user time and advertising exposure efficiency, causing institutional positions to continue adjusting. The variable to watch is the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' subsequent stance on the applicability of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The signal that this scenario fails is the court ruling that Section 230 fully exempts product design liability.
Against the backdrop of about 14 states filing separate lawsuits and peers like Google and Snap facing over 3,000 claims, the premium on a single tech giant is shifting toward systemic industry compliance costs. Historical data from the record $206 billion tobacco settlement indicates that the endgame of judicial accountability often results in a long-term increase in cash flow discount rates.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the live testimonies of Mark Zuckerberg and Adam Mosseri during the five-week trial, as well as the cross-month term structure adjustments of implied volatility for Mag7 in the derivatives market.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 Xiaomi's single-quarter revenue has returned to the scale of 100 billion, but the significant pressure on adjusted net profit has caused the market to be caught between growth narratives and profit realities.
$XIAOMI stock closed at HKD 26.18 after the earnings release, with daily trading volume expanding to 179 million shares, and funds completing turnover within a narrow range of HKD 25.22 to 26.54.
The gross margin of mobile hardware was squeezed down to 8.5% due to upstream cost increases such as storage, while the automotive business delivered over 100,000 units with a 19.2% gross margin, but the innovation segment still recorded a quarterly loss of 2.6 billion yuan.
The profit erosion caused by hardware cost inflation is offset by gross margin recovery from the automotive business scale expansion, directly determining the degree of divergence in risk appetite in the market.
If the subsequent monthly delivery pace can support the full-year target of 550,000 vehicles, the valuation midpoint is expected to test the resistance at HKD 28 with the backing of buyback funds; if the per-vehicle loss narrowing falls short of expectations, this upward momentum will fail.
If the cost pressure on the mobile side continues to spread into the third quarter, and monthly delivery volume slides into the range lowered by institutions, position hedging may prompt the stock price to retest the support level at HKD 25.
When the automotive business's gross margin improvement cannot cover ongoing R&D and channel investments, the existing valuation support logic will be broken.
Going forward, the key focus is to observe whether the monthly delivery pace can be maintained within the intensity range required to sprint toward the full-year target.
#美国财政部推进GENIUS稳定币规则 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？📊 $BTC合约爆仓速递（8月18日）
根据爆仓数据，狗庄在BTC上完成了从短到长周期的教科书级单边逼空收割，空头从1小时开始全程控场，多头被彻底碾碎，累计爆仓突破1.1亿美元——为今日已覆盖币种中爆仓量级绝对最大。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $10.87万 $1.80万 $9.08万
4小时 $5,407.79万 $96.07万 $5,311.72万
12小时 $5,565.05万 $122.10万 $5,442.95万
24小时 $1.10亿 $388.33万 $1.00亿
从$BTC爆仓数据看，1小时空头爆仓碾压多头，空头是多头的5.04倍，逼空行情以核爆级烈度展开，爆仓量10.87万美元——空头短周期强势控场，多头被直接碾碎；4小时空头继续碾压，空头是多头的55倍，逼空力度以核爆级烈度爆发，爆仓量从10.87万飙升至5,407.79万美元——空头全力发力，多头被彻底碾碎；12小时空头继续碾压，空头是多头的44.6倍，逼空动能虽有所减弱但依然极端强劲，爆仓量飙升至5,565.05万美元——空头持续收割；24小时空头继续碾压，空头爆仓1.00亿美元对多头388.33万美元，空头是多头的25.7倍，累计爆仓突破1.10亿美元——狗庄在BTC上完成了“短周期全力逼空→长周期动能持续衰竭”的完整路径，空头从1小时开始全程控场，但碾压倍数从4小时的55倍一路坍缩到24小时的25.7倍，逼空能量正在持续衰竭，多空正在重回均衡。堪称教科书级别的单边逼空行情，但方向随时可能逆转。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
⚠️ 风险提示：BTC所有周期空头爆仓持续碾压多头，方向高度一致，但4H→24H倍数从55倍持续收窄至25.7倍，逼空动能持续衰竭，方向逆转风险较高；4小时+12小时爆仓量占全天总量的99%，集中度极高，市场波动极端剧烈。杠杆建议压缩至3倍以内，切勿盲目追空，严控仓位等待方向明朗。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月18日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在同时消化“旧引擎”的失速与“新引擎”的爬坡——手机承压、汽车救场、美债利率重锚、存储逻辑重塑，四股力量在同一时间窗口交汇。
📱 小米Q2财报：手机向下，汽车向上
8月18日盘后，小米交出2026年Q2成绩单：营收1089亿元，经调整净利润62亿元。拆分来看：
智能手机业务全面承压。出货量从去年同期的4240万台骤降26.5%至3120万台，收入降至421亿元。存储芯片涨价压制了全球需求，但小米通过产品结构优化，将智能手机ASP推至1351元的历史新高——“卖得更少，但卖得更贵”。
汽车业务成为最大亮点。智能电动汽车收入239亿元，交付104,199辆，同比增长28.2%。但汽车业务并非没有隐忧——毛利率从去年同期的26.4%大幅回落至19.2%，经营亏损26亿元。高盛认为Q2是小米的“盈利谷底”，下半年有望在成本边际改善与新车拉动下迎来拐点。
“手机养家，汽车创业”——小米的转型期仍在继续。
📈 30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
8月18日，30年期美债收益率飙升至5.31%，创2007年以来新高。
三重压力共同推动：美国财政赤字持续扩张，CBO预测到2036年债务利息支出将攀升至2.1万亿美元；AI投资热潮带来大规模企业债发行，8月投资级债券发行创同期新高；美伊局势推升油价至每桶90美元以上。
长端利率的上行，意味着全球风险资产的估值基准正在被重新锚定。当无风险利率站上5.3%，科技股的高估值还能撑多久？
💾 闪迪收涨逾8%，长协重塑存储逻辑
闪迪周一上涨约8%至1,786.85美元，年内累计涨幅已超629%。摩根大通恢复覆盖，给出2250美元目标价。
驱动这轮上涨的核心是长期协议（NBM长协）：闪迪已签署10份长期供货协议，最低合同价值达939亿美元，合约平均期限超4年，配套165亿美元财务保障。公司已锁定2028财年约三分之二的出货量。
闪迪正在从高周期性的NAND供应商，转向由AI需求驱动、长期协议保障盈利的价值创造模式。当需求可见度从3个月延长至超4年，周期的逻辑就被改写了。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出同一幅图景：小米的手机业务在缩量中提价、汽车业务在爬坡中亏损，新旧引擎的切换仍在阵痛期；美债市场在用5.31%的收益率告诉全球——财政纪律的松弛正在被重新定价；闪迪则用939亿美元的长协，试图改写存储行业“暴涨暴跌”的周期命运。当旧引擎失速、无风险利率重锚、产业逻辑重塑同时发生——2026年8月的市场，正在为“后AI时代”的定价体系寻找新的坐标。#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Reviewing today, mainly discussing the details of this $BTC long position.
Yesterday's daily candle closed quite strong, and today the price formed a triangle consolidation below the resistance level I drew. In a strong context, the sideways movement below resistance without a significant drop suggests to me that buyers are absorbing selling pressure, eventually leading to an upward breakout.
Therefore, before the market opened, when the price returned to the intraday discount zone, I opened a half position long.
The reason for only entering half is that the intraday remained in consolidation without obvious liquidity hunting. According to ICT's Po3 and Judas Swing concepts, when the intraday bias is bullish, liquidity might first be swept downward around the New York open before a real rally begins. So placing a stop loss below the intraday low at that time was not appropriate.
After the open, the price followed the US stock market down, taking out the intraday low, but quickly recovered after the break. For me, this was the second confirmation: the lower liquidity had been cleared, and the price stood back above the key level, so I added the remaining half position here.
Afterwards, the price showed strong momentum, surging directly to around 65,000. Today's long setup basically played out as expected.
However, the fulfillment of the long logic does not mean it is still suitable to blindly chase longs now.
Currently, the price has reached a higher-level resistance zone and is testing the long-term downtrend line. Although it briefly pierced upward intraday, there is no effective close above it yet, and RSI divergence signals have started to appear internally.
Next, I will focus on observing the daily candle closes over the next few days. 先说想要站稳70000，必须集齐的几大核心条件： 第一，美联储释放明确降息信号，美债收益率下行，宏观流动性预期转暖。当前市场担忧油价推升通胀，降息预期反复摇摆，只要高利率预期持续，风险资产很难走出持续性大行情。 第二，美国BTC现货ETF资金由持续净流出转为稳定净流入，机构资金重新回流。最近一段时间ETF连续流出，机构当下并没有主动进场扫货，缺少大额增量资金很难推动价格大幅上行 。 第三，盘面先有效站稳65000关键压力位，打开上行空间，带动市场整体情绪回暖。目前BTC还处在区间震荡，场内大多只是存量资金博弈，没有形成趋势性做多共识。 再讲风险约束： 短期中东地缘冲突不断推高油价，通胀担忧再起，现阶段市场把BTC归类为风险资产，地缘避险资金并没有流入加密市场，地缘一旦进一步升级反而容易带来短期抛压。另外，如果美联储会议纪要释放偏鹰表态，大盘还有再度下探支撑的可能性。 简单划分时间维度： 短期（几周内）：单纯依靠现有情绪很难直接摸到70000，必须出现上面提到的催化事件才存在快速突破机会； 中期（数月维度）：如果货币政策转向、监管释放利好、机构资金回流，70000美元是可以看到的Recently, an interesting phenomenon has been observed: a large number of traditional Bitcoin mining companies are no longer solely focused on mining coins; instead, they are flocking to engage in AI high-performance computing businesses. Over the past few years, many mining companies have shifted their computing power resources toward AI/HPC. In hindsight, this investment can be considered one of the better capital allocations in nearly a decade. After a significant correction in the Bitcoin market, with prices dropping by 45%, mining profits have been severely compressed. The mining hash price has plummeted from $63 per PH/s to $31.8. The total network computing power has also declined accordingly. Market stock price performance has shown a clear divergence: companies that have completed AI computing power transformation, such as Terrawulf, Iren, and Cipher Digital, have seen their stock prices double over the past year. Mining companies with AI/HPC contracts have valuation multiples reaching 12.3 times. In contrast, Mara Holdings, which has been slow to transform, has seen its stock price drop by 40%. Companies sticking purely to mining operations have valuations of only 5.9 times. The entire industry has cumulatively signed AI/HPC contracts totaling as much as $70 billion. The secondary market is also highly divided: although BTC ETFs have seen a brief inflow of funds, sustained inflows have not formed. On the ETH side, large holders are carrying significant short positions, while institutions continue to accumulate coins. The battle between bulls and bears remains intense. Regarding mining companies' transformation, in the short term, computing power shifting to supply AI will ease competitive pressure on Bitcoin mining. In the long term, however, it also plants uncertainty: if the AI business dividends fade later, will this massive computing power flow back to Bitcoin mining, and what impact will that have on the coin price 今天AI硬件这根回调，挺有意思。 截至美东时间约11:40： $SNDK -8.3%
$MU -7.0%
$LITE -9.5%
$AAOI -12.4%
$NVDA -2.4% 与此同时，纳指跌约1%，半导体指数跌约3.7%。 ① 基本面一天没变，估值先变了 昨天市场还在疯狂交易： AI CapEx → 存储缺货 → 光模块缺货。 今天突然全部被砸。 真正变化的是宏观。 10年美债收益率现在约 4.71%，30年一度冲到 5.33%附近；Brent原油重新来到90美元以上。 油价↑ → 通胀担忧↑ → 美债收益率↑。 对于高估值AI股来说，这套组合就是天然压制。 所以今天我不会因为一根大阴线就说： “AI逻辑结束了。” 但也不会觉得“基本面没变就必须抄底”。 ② 涨得越疯，回调的时候越狠 这个今天特别明显。 $NVDA 只跌约2.4%。 但是： $SNDK -8%
$MU -7%
$LITE -9%
$AAOI -12%。 为什么？ 因为过去几天这些票涨得太猛了。 SNDK昨天收在1786美元，今天最低直接到 1614美元。 AAOI今天从151美元附近一路砸到 134.5美元。$OKB contract upgraded today, but the price fell below $100: a textbook case of buying the expectation and selling the reality
OKB current price is 97.86, down 5.57% in one day, directly breaking through the psychological $100 barrier. The 7-day range is between 94.10 and $109.76, with a nearly 11% pullback from the high. Ironically, today is exactly the contract upgrade day, with minting and burning functions permanently removed, locking the supply at 21 million tokens. The positive news triggered a sell-off on the day of the announcement; this script is all too familiar.
After the 8.13 burn announcement, the price surged to 104 (+9), then steadily dropped back to $97.86. The news was already priced in, and the last buyers were retail investors attracted by the "BTC scarcity benchmark." Honestly, this kind of price movement doesn't surprise me at all.
Next, look at two key levels: the lower 94.10 is the 7-day low, and below that, the 95−98 range is a dense turnover zone. Breaking below means testing 94.10 again. On the upside, 100 has turned from support into resistance; failure to reclaim it confirms weakness. The real variables lie in Q3, with Exchange OS deployers staking OKB and the 1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund launching. That marks the shift in demand logic from "platform points" to "on-chain production assets," but these are slow-moving factors and won't save the short term.
So overall, clear positive news + breakdown = don't catch the falling knife. For long-term holders, wait for validation around 94−95; for short-term traders, wait to retake 94−95 before considering, and for short-term trades, wait to reclaim 100 before discussing further.📊 $APR合约爆仓速递（8月18日）
根据爆仓数据，狗庄在APR上完成了一波教科书级别的单边逼空行情——空头从1小时开始全程控场，但随着时间周期拉长，逼空动能持续衰竭，累计爆仓突破57万美元。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $9.81万 $2.44万 $7.37万
4小时 $35.34万 $11.83万 $23.51万
12小时 $41.82万 $17.40万 $24.42万
24小时 $57.34万 $26.59万 $30.76万
从$APR爆仓数据看，1小时空头爆仓碾压多头，空头是多头的3.02倍，逼空行情以核爆级烈度展开，爆仓量9.81万美元——空头短周期强势控场，多头被直接碾碎；4小时空头继续碾压，空头是多头的1.99倍，逼空力度显著减弱，爆仓量从9.81万飙升至35.34万美元——空头仍在控场但快没劲了，爆仓量放大但倍数急剧收窄；12小时方向进一步弱化，空头仅略超多头1.4倍，逼空动能持续衰竭，爆仓量飙升至41.82万美元——空头仍在收割但力度越来越弱，多空趋于均衡；24小时方向几乎打成平手，空头仅略超多头1.16倍，逼空能量几乎耗尽，累计爆仓突破57.34万美元——狗庄在APR上完成了“短周期全力逼空→长周期动能持续衰竭”的完整路径，空头从1小时开始全程控场，但碾压倍数从3.02倍一路坍缩到24小时的1.16倍，逼空能量几乎耗尽，多空正在重回均衡。堪称教科书级别的逼空动能衰竭行情。大家控制好仓位，方向随时可能逆转。
⚠️ 风险提示：APR所有周期空头爆仓持续碾压多头，方向高度一致，但1H→24H倍数从3.02倍持续收窄至1.16倍，逼空动能急剧衰竭，方向逆转风险极高；4小时+12小时爆仓量占全天总量的99%，集中度极高，市场波动极端剧烈。杠杆建议压缩至3倍以内，切勿盲目追空，严控仓位等待方向明朗。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月18日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在同时消化“旧引擎”的失速与“新引擎”的爬坡——手机承压、汽车救场、美债利率重锚、存储逻辑重塑，四股力量在同一时间窗口交汇。
📱 小米Q2财报：手机向下，汽车向上
8月18日盘后，小米交出2026年Q2成绩单：营收1089亿元，经调整净利润62亿元。拆分来看：
智能手机业务全面承压。出货量从去年同期的4240万台骤降26.5%至3120万台，收入降至421亿元。存储芯片涨价压制了全球需求，但小米通过产品结构优化，将智能手机ASP推至1351元的历史新高——“卖得更少，但卖得更贵”。
汽车业务成为最大亮点。智能电动汽车收入239亿元，交付104,199辆，同比增长28.2%。但汽车业务并非没有隐忧——毛利率从去年同期的26.4%大幅回落至19.2%，经营亏损26亿元。高盛认为Q2是小米的“盈利谷底”，下半年有望在成本边际改善与新车拉动下迎来拐点。
“手机养家，汽车创业”——小米的转型期仍在继续。
📈 30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
8月18日，30年期美债收益率飙升至5.31%，创2007年以来新高。
三重压力共同推动：美国财政赤字持续扩张，CBO预测到2036年债务利息支出将攀升至2.1万亿美元；AI投资热潮带来大规模企业债发行，8月投资级债券发行创同期新高；美伊局势推升油价至每桶90美元以上。
长端利率的上行，意味着全球风险资产的估值基准正在被重新锚定。当无风险利率站上5.3%，科技股的高估值还能撑多久？
💾 闪迪收涨逾8%，长协重塑存储逻辑
闪迪周一上涨约8%至1,786.85美元，年内累计涨幅已超629%。摩根大通恢复覆盖，给出2250美元目标价。
驱动这轮上涨的核心是长期协议（NBM长协）：闪迪已签署10份长期供货协议，最低合同价值达939亿美元，合约平均期限超4年，配套165亿美元财务保障。公司已锁定2028财年约三分之二的出货量。
闪迪正在从高周期性的NAND供应商，转向由AI需求驱动、长期协议保障盈利的价值创造模式。当需求可见度从3个月延长至超4年，周期的逻辑就被改写了。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出同一幅图景：小米的手机业务在缩量中提价、汽车业务在爬坡中亏损，新旧引擎的切换仍在阵痛期；美债市场在用5.31%的收益率告诉全球——财政纪律的松弛正在被重新定价；闪迪则用939亿美元的长协，试图改写存储行业“暴涨暴跌”的周期命运。当旧引擎失速、无风险利率重锚、产业逻辑重塑同时发生——2026年8月的市场，正在为“后AI时代”的定价体系寻找新的坐标。#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 As of around 23:58 Singapore time on August 18 (about 11:58 Eastern US time, US stocks still trading), the core of today's decline is not a single negative factor, but the combination of "US Treasury yields soaring + Iran situation pushing up oil prices + AI/semiconductor high-level concentrated profit-taking."
Currently, it is very clear that tech stocks are being hit the hardest: SPY down about -0.6%, QQQ about -1.7%, and semiconductor ETF SOXX has already reached about -5.7%. Individual stocks: NVIDIA about -2.4%, Micron -6.8%, SanDisk -8.3%.
① The biggest reason: US long-term Treasury yields suddenly surged
This is the most important variable today.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.72%–4.74%, the 30-year yield once reached about 5.33%, the highest level since 2007. And it’s not just the US; today there was actually a global sell-off in long-term bonds.
MarketWatch
+1
This is especially unfriendly to tech stocks. Simply put:
Treasury yields ↑
→ risk-free rate ↑
→ discounted value of future stock earnings ↓
→ stocks with higher PE and more distant expectations fall harder.
So what you see today is not a Dow plunge, but QQQ, AI, and semiconductors clearly underperforming the broader market.
$SNDK The panic over the storage chip cycle peaking triggered by $SKHY SanDisk's earnings plunge is spreading across the entire storage sector. SK Hynix, as the leader in HBM, is directly hit. The plunge in South Korea's KOSPI triggered leveraged liquidations, forcing Korean retail investors to sell all liquid assets—including SK Hynix shares. Concerns over HBM overcapacity continue to intensify, and neither Micron nor SK Hynix can escape it. MSTR is a Leveraged Credit Default Swap on the entire US financial system - as Bitcoin is the CDS.
They stay mis-priced for a long time.
And then re-price in a hurry."Xiaomi Earnings Report Day Sees Stock Rise! Revenue Returns to 100 Billion, Auto Business Becomes Key Focus"
Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) Market Snapshot Today (August 18, 2026)
At close, Xiaomi Group's stock price was **HKD 26.18**, up about **1.16%**.
- Intraday high reached HKD 26.54
- Low was HKD 25.22
- Trading volume approximately 179 million shares
The company also released its Q2 2026 earnings today, with a generally positive market response.
### Key Highlights Today
1. **Q2 Performance Overview**
- Quarterly revenue approximately **108.9 billion yuan**, returning above the 100 billion mark
- Adjusted net profit about **6.219 billion yuan**, stabilizing quarter-on-quarter
- Smartphone gross margin around 8.5%, maintaining a certain profit level
Facing rising storage costs and intensified industry competition, Xiaomi stabilized profit performance through operational optimization.
2. **Ongoing Share Buybacks**
Since 2026 began, Xiaomi has repurchased shares totaling about **HKD 11.7 billion**, demonstrating confidence in its own value and providing some support to the stock price.
3. **Auto Business Remains a Core Mid-to-Long-Term Variable**
The company’s 2026 auto delivery target is **550,000 vehicles**. The scale expansion and loss narrowing progress of the auto business will continue to influence market revaluation of Xiaomi.
### Future Outlook
**Short term (1-3 months):**
After the earnings release, the stock price is expected to fluctuate and digest within the HKD 25-28 range. If auto delivery data continues to exceed expectations, there may be further upward momentum; if pressure on the smartphone business increases, a retest of previous lows is possible.
**Mid to long term:**
Xiaomi’s core focus has shifted from "smartphones + IoT" to "smartphones + autos + full ecosystem." Market valuation largely depends on whether the auto business can transition from "burning cash for expansion" to "scaled profitability."
If the 2026 delivery target is met smoothly and losses narrow significantly, the stock price is likely to see valuation recovery; otherwise, it will remain in low-valuation fluctuation.
### Summary in One Sentence
**Xiaomi’s Q2 performance stabilizes, buybacks provide a floor, but the true determinant of future growth is the auto business’s execution capability.**
The current position is more suitable for mid-to-long-term investment strategies, with potential for increased short-term volatility. Focus on upcoming monthly auto delivery data and gross margin changes.
What’s your view on Xiaomi’s future? Continue holding or wait for a better entry point? Share your thoughts in the comments.
$XIAOMI #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Gold touched $4430, but I wouldn't call it a "new high."
If the theme is limited to "safe haven" rather than betting on volatility, I would choose gold. At least for now, gold is trading as insurance, while BTC is still trading on liquidity.
Gold rebounded about 9% in August, once returning near $4430; as of the week ending August 12, gold funds saw a net inflow of $2.62 billion, the strongest since January. Option skew has shifted from protective puts to calls, with about 8,000 November expiry GLD call options at a $460 strike price appearing; but at the same time, there are still 25,000 September $350 put options. Big money is buying upside volatility, not abandoning risk control.
Don't forget, gold reached $5595 in January and is still about 21% lower now; $4500–$4504 remains a strong resistance. The funds have returned, but chasing highs doesn't guarantee odds.
Gold positions only account for 10% of total funds, no increase near $4430; if the daily chart holds above $4505 and ETFs continue inflows, then add another 2%. BTC keeps 25% long-term positions, only adding if it holds above $65,000 and spot ETFs have net inflows for 3 consecutive days.
Gold lets me sleep well; BTC is responsible for asymmetric returns five years from now. They are not opponents; using the wrong yardstick leads to misjudgment. $XAU $BTC Actually, the most important reasons for this wave of rise, I think, are:
1. Tomorrow's White House crypto meeting, where Trump and top leaders in the crypto field will participate, possibly bringing policy guidance.
2. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has already broken through to a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, which is very alarming and indicates a decline in the credit rating of the dollar. Why does this affect BTC? BlackRock also said tonight, "We are bullish on Bitcoin; the core investment logic of Bitcoin as a new global currency alternative and a unique portfolio diversification tool remains unchanged."
From a technical indicator perspective, $BTC is also facing extreme compression, and the choice of direction is unstoppable.
Good expectations make tonight's BTC stand out, moving against the U.S. stock market trend.
If positive news is released tomorrow, BTC breaking through 65780 will directly trigger a small one-sided rally; if there is no positive news, its oscillation range will remain between 64000 and 65780, but the outlook is still bullish.1. The "$1.8 trillion panic" could trigger a 30% sharp fluctuation in Bitcoin. My understanding: Treat the "$1.8 trillion" and "30%" in the headline as references, not precise predictions. What I care more about is whether the underlying risk chain holds. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields are roughly: 2-year at 4.19%, 10-year at 4.72%, 20-year at 5.3%, and 30-year at 5.31%. The long end has reached multi-year highs, meaning the opportunity cost of holding risk assets is rising. BTC has no cash flow, so traditional valuation models can't be fully applied. But its volatility makes it very sensitive to funding costs, liquidity, and risk appetite. When even low-risk U.S. Treasuries can yield close to 5%, some money originally allocated to stocks and crypto will be recalculated, and institutions will be more cautious about using leverage and allocating to BTC. So although BTC is moving toward a long-term reserve asset, in the short term, it often remains a high-beta risk asset. When interest rates rise and liquidity tightens, it can easily fall along with the stock market. The transmission logic is roughly as follows: U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury supply pressure rise → long-term Treasury yields rise → cost of holding risk assets increases → risk appetite declines → BTC faces short-term pressure. Japan is also a hidden risk. The yen has been depreciating continuously, and Japan is unlikely to let it go unchecked. But the real concern is not the yen depreciation itself, but that Japan might raise interest rates or directly intervene to stabilize the exchange rate. If these actions cause the yen to appreciate rapidly, previously borrowed low-interest yen used to buy U.S. stocks and crypto could be affected.Funding Rate Peaks at 20 Months, $BTC About to Shift
---
Funding Rate: 20-Month High
The perpetual contract funding rate has surged to the highest level in nearly 20 months, reaching 0.0228 on August 14, and currently remains elevated between +0.005% and 0.009%. Long position costs are significantly high, and market bullish sentiment is extremely intense.
---#30-year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007
Open Interest: Leverage Has Not Receded
BTC futures open interest remains above 360,000 contracts (approximately $29.2 billion), with some metrics showing an 8-month high. Leveraged funds have not exited; once the direction becomes clear, volatility is very likely to be intense.
---$ETH
Price Positioning: 65K, Battle for 66K
Current price hovers around $65,000, with $66,300 above as the mid-term moving average resistance level, the most critical recent resistance point.
· Break above 66K: Volume breakout, high funding rate + bullish sentiment may accelerate the move
· Break below support: $62,500~$62,700 is the short-term lifeline for bulls; losing this risks liquidation of high-leverage long positions
---$SNDK
Divergence Not to Be Ignored
Active buy orders account for over 51%, with retail investors aggressively chasing longs in the contract market; however, large holders on the spot side have nearly $1 billion in cumulative transactions, with limit sell orders exceeding buy orders by $204 million—clear internal divergence.
---#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
Macro Catalysts
Wednesday's FOMC minutes + White House crypto summit could trigger a turning point at any time.
---#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
The market is already very tense. Derivatives are heating up, spot has yet to catch up, and internal divisions exist. 66K is the watershed; holding above it could turn sentiment from hot to explosive; failing to hold it means high-leverage longs become ready fuel. The choice of direction may be right before us. $XAU Why Gold's Breakout Might Not Be About Gold At All
Nikkei dropped ~2.5% today. The real story isn't the equity move , it's the 10-year JGB yield hitting ~2.95%, a 30-year high for Japan.
Here's the chain worth watching: Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries (~$1.1T+, and already trimming). If domestic Japanese yields keep climbing, capital that's been parked in US bonds for the yield differential has less reason to stay abroad. Less foreign demand for Treasuries pressures Treasury prices down, which pushes long-end US yields up and that's exactly what's showing: the 30-year is already above 5.3%.
Higher long-term US yields squeeze Nasdaq valuations. China trimming Treasury holdings too just adds to the pressure.
Everyone's watching the Fed. Maybe the wrong central bank is getting the attention,if a major carry trade unwind actually happens, it doesn't stay contained to Tokyo.
Which brings it back to gold: price just broke its multi-month downtrend and reclaimed the 0.5 fib level ($4,394) with EMAs flipping bullish underneath it. That breakout is happening in the same week this yield story is unfolding. Could be coincidence, could be capital already sensing where this chain ends.
Not predicting the unwind. Just noting the setup lines up.
$XAU #30YYieldHits2007High #GoldOptionsTurnBullish 友友们，今天咱们聊个大事儿——30年期美债收益率冲到5.304%，创了2007年以来的新高。这数字啥概念？上一次见到这水平的时候，全球金融危机还没爆发呢。所以别光盯着K线，咱先把"钱为什么变贵了"这件事捋清楚，再看币圈怎么走。 🌪️ 30年期美债收益率新高，到底意味着啥 简单一句话：全球钱的"基准价"被重新定价了。 8月18日这天，30年期美债收益率盘中摸到5.304%，不光破了上个月的高点，还直接干到了2007年6月以来的最高水平。与此同时，加拿大30年期也上了2010年来的高位，德国长债收益率触及2011年以来最高，日本10年期 JGB 更是飙到2.945%、创1996年来新高，逼近3%的财政警戒线。 为啥突然这样？几个事儿叠一块儿了： 美国财政赤字每年近2万亿美元，国家债务规模蹭蹭涨，长债供应海量 AI 投资热潮引发企业侧发债融资的井喷，创纪录的债券供应冲击市场、吸走数以千亿美元计的资金，正加剧传统长债买家需求的日渐萎靡 过去五年通胀持续高于美联储目标，市场怀疑"短期利率长期居高不下" 中东局势及能源价格上涨推升通胀担忧，同时主要经济体债券供给压力及货币政策预期推动长端收益率走A brief review of the long position, considering the 9:30 market open rally sentiment, but it wasn't as strong as expected.
💰 Long Position Review
Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1,683
Take Profit Price: 1,745
Actual High: 1,724
Stop Loss Price: 1,620
Return: -38.41%
The take profit was set at 1,745, but the highest price only reached 1,724, missing 21 points. Then it dropped all the way to 1,620, triggering the stop loss. The direction was actually correct; there was indeed rally sentiment at the open, but the strength was insufficient, and the rebound fell short of the expected level before fading.
📊 Market Trend Analysis
Technical:
$SNDK dropped from a high of 1,821 down to 1,614, a decline of over 200 points. MA5 (1,639), MA10 (1,657), and MA20 (1,676) are all turning downward, with all moving averages pressing from above, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend. Support lies between 1,600-1,614; breaking this leads to 1,500. Resistance is at 1,680-1,700; failure to break above means continuing to seek support lower.
Fundamental:
$SNDK closed up over 8%, with long-term agreements attracting attention — sounds positive. But the market completely disagreed, dropping straight from 1,821 to 1,614, indicating capital is using the good news to sell off. No matter how good the long-term agreement is, it can't withstand short-term profit-taking. This "good news but no rise" pattern is actually a bearish signal.
Sentiment:
Bulls have been repeatedly pushed down; 1,724 couldn't be surpassed, and 1,680 couldn't hold. This shows heavy selling pressure above and insufficient buying power. Market sentiment is turning pessimistic, making a decent short-term rebound unlikely.
📌 Tonight's Trading Strategy
Direction:
Bearish, target 1,500.
Entry:
Wait for a rebound to the 1,650-1,670 range before shorting. If no rebound is given, you can enter in batches with light positions, not all at once.
Stop Loss:
Above 1,700. Breaking this level means the bearish thesis is wrong; cut losses and exit.
Take Profit:
First target 1,600, second target 1,500.
Position Size:
10x leverage, light position entry, leaving room for adding.
Plan:
Place a short order at 1,655, stop loss at 1,705, take profit at 1,505. If 1,700 is effectively broken, admit the mistake and exit. If it pulls back and stabilizes near 1,600, reduce position; if it breaks below 1,600, add to the position.
---
Personal Note:
The long position was stopped out due to greed. Clearly, 1,724 was the top, but I insisted on reaching 1,745. For this short, exit at the target without greed.
$SNDK
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Among the 298 million in inflows, the number for LINK is the most unusual—it lit up for two consecutive days 🧐
On August 17, crypto ETFs collectively showed green lights. BTC net inflow was 298 million, ETH inflow was 30.85 million, LINK inflow was 2.07 million, and AVAX inflow was 510,000. All four turned positive.
The market is focused on the 298 million, but what I want to emphasize is—LINK’s consecutive two-day net inflow is the most abnormal signal. Since the LINK spot ETF launched, most of the time it had zero or even negative inflows. Unlike BTC and ETH, which have continuous institutional buying, LINK mostly stayed quietly in the corner. But after recording inflows on August 16, it again had 2.07 million inflow on August 17. This is the first time since the LINK ETF launch that it recorded positive inflows for two consecutive days.
On-chain data also supports this—Bitwise directly bought 171,870 LINK from Coinbase and Wintermute. This is not retail behavior; institutions are directly scooping up through compliant channels. LINK’s open interest contracts increased by about 5% in the past few days, and the funding rate returned to positive territory. LINK is undergoing a new round of accumulation, and this time ETF funds are driving it. The AVAX ETF also turned positive—although a small amount of 510,000, the directional signal is equally worth noting.
This is the first time in history that a crypto ETF outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum has shown consecutive net inflows.
298 million is not huge, but with all four ETFs lighting up simultaneously, LINK is the most unusual one. It’s telling you that institutional attention is expanding beyond BTC. When the direction starts to shift, small and continuous confirmation signals are more valuable than a single large pulse.
Not every 298 million means a bull market is coming, but LINK lighting up for two consecutive days is something worth a closer look.
#BTC #ETH #LINK #AVAX #ETF$ETH $BTC $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
The earnings report is out, showing a very divided result. Revenue firmly held the 100 billion mark, but adjusted net profit dropped sharply by 42.6% year-over-year. The market is now split into two camps: one group pins all hopes on the automotive segment, while the other believes the profit hole from smartphones will eventually drag down the entire report. I'll break down my views and also discuss how this news affects sentiment in risk asset markets.
First, the conclusion upfront: the automotive segment has stabilized its growth story but cannot be said to have saved the situation; smartphones are the real culprit dragging down profits.
1. Automotive: The narrative remains, still in the money-burning ramp-up phase
In Q2, automotive deliveries exceeded 104,000 units, revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, with a gross margin of 19.2%, just shy of the 20% target. Per-vehicle losses have clearly narrowed, and the delivery foundation is holding.
✅ Highlights: For two consecutive quarters, deliveries have stayed above 100,000 units, vehicle gross margin continues to improve, and new models remain popular in the market. This is the only business line in the entire group experiencing rapid expansion.
⚠️ Real risks: The innovative business segment still posted a loss of ¥2.6 billion, with large-scale R&D and channel investments ongoing. More critically, the full-year delivery target poses pressure; to meet the original guidance of 550,000 units, the delivery intensity in the remaining months must be very high. Institutions have generally lowered expectations to the 460,000–500,000 range, making completion quite challenging. BTC is waiting for a catalyst, ETH takes the lead! Capital rotation completely rewrites the main theme of the crypto market
$BTC $ETH
The market divergence on August 18 reveals the core capital logic of the current crypto market: it’s not an overall market downturn, but a quiet shift in the main sector theme, with funds moving from defensive assets with certainty to high-growth assets.
Currently, BTC maintains a high-level range with grinding oscillation, never weakening or breaking down. According to Bitfinex Alpha market data, BTC has only retraced 5.4% from its historical high, showing strong market resilience. At this stage, BTC is not launching a one-sided trend; the core is waiting for a clear catalyst signal: the market is highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statements and whether spot ETF funds can continue net inflows. Without core positive news, BTC remains in a high-level oscillation and accumulation state, prioritizing stability and waiting for a breakout.
In contrast, $ETH has long since broken out of the oscillation range and started a structural rebound early. From the April low of $1386, it has rebounded steadily, with the current price approaching the 2021 historical high range of $4864. The rebound strength and bullish momentum far exceed BTC, showing an independent strengthening trend.
The clearest evidence of capital rotation comes from the continuous decline in BTC’s market dominance: in just two months, BTC’s dominance has steadily dropped from 65% to 59%, a full 6 percentage points of capital outflow. This is not short-term retail sentiment speculation but large-scale, sustained institutional capital reallocation, which is the core proof of this market rotation.
Currently, the two mainstream cryptocurrencies have formed completely different market positions and capital attributes:
BTC is equivalent to the "digital gold" of the crypto market
It carries macro hedging, asset defense, and traditional institutional allocation funds, with its trend closely following macro cycles, focusing on stability and certainty, responsible for attracting traditional incremental funds to the crypto market and maintaining the market’s foundation.
ETH is equivalent to the "technology growth asset" of the crypto market
Funds no longer simply focus on macro trends but refocus on its network ecosystem growth, on-chain application implementation, staking yields, and other intrinsic values. When traditional defensive assets stagnate, ETH’s growth attributes are fully leveraged, successfully absorbing overflow capital and showing an independent upward trend.
This deep rotation fundamentally changes the market speculation logic:
In the past, the market competed on "who had higher gains and stronger trends,"
Now the core is a capital style shift—from pursuing absolute safety and certainty to gradually flowing into growth sectors with valuation recovery and ecosystem expansion.
In summary of the current landscape:
BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market base and waiting for macro catalysts to materialize;
ETH is responsible for driving structural trends and unlocking market profit potential.
If the capital rotation trend continues, the main market theme will be completely reconstructed, with ETH and major public chains’ growth recovery becoming the core focus of the crypto market going forward.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#BTC #ETH #CapitalRotation #CryptoMarketMainTheme #MarketStructureAnalysis #MacroTradingLogic3. Alibaba-SW
Up 3.68%, with increased trading activity. Domestic consumption is slowly recovering, e-commerce core business remains stable, and overseas cross-border e-commerce continues to expand its footprint. Alibaba Cloud's computing power business maintains high growth, with AI-related cloud services driving revenue growth. Slight net inflow of southbound funds supports a rebound in the stock price from a low level. Competition in the e-commerce sector remains intense in the long term, and rising traffic costs will compress profit margins. The stock price is in a relatively low valuation range, currently in a recovery phase, but lacks strong catalysts for a significant surge. 2. C&D International Group
Closed up 3.7%, a popular stock among domestic real estate shares. Real estate sales data show marginal stabilization, with expectations for steady real estate-related policies heating up. The market is betting on the fundamental recovery logic of quality real estate companies. The company is a state-owned enterprise with a stable debt structure, and its projects are concentrated in core cities, making risks relatively controllable. The overall inventory in the real estate industry is relatively high, and the industry's recovery pace is slow, making rapid performance growth difficult. This round of the market mainly focuses on valuation recovery, with upside potential constrained by the pace of improvement in commodity housing sales.1. Kingsray Biotechnology
Surged nearly 9%, reaching a new high in over three years. The company disclosed its semi-annual report, with revenue increasing 27.3% year-over-year and adjusted net profit growth exceeding 200%. The life sciences business improved operational efficiency by leveraging AI research tools, significantly enhancing business performance. Multiple institutions raised their target prices, and institutional funds continue to increase holdings in the CXO sector. The overseas biopharmaceutical financing environment remains uncertain, and overseas orders face volatility risks. The stock price has rapidly surged in the short term, completing a round of valuation recovery; further gains require sustained performance fulfillment, with rising risks for short-term chasing.5. GoPlus Security (GPS)
Intraday increase of 22%, focusing on on-chain security service tokens. Recently, multiple public chains have exposed security vulnerabilities, rapidly increasing attention on the on-chain security sector. The project officially announced security cooperation agreements with three small to medium public chains, which is a positive catalyst for the market. There are many competing projects in this sector, with low business barriers, making it difficult to establish exclusive business advantages. The token's overall liquidity is relatively weak, and selling pressure will quickly release after a sharp rise. The theme has obvious speculative characteristics, and after the hype fades, the gains will quickly be given back.