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🔥 BITCOIN IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE GOLD AND THAT’S INTERESTING
I can’t be the only one noticing this.
Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020, while its correlation with the Nasdaq is sitting near a 1 year low.
That’s a pretty interesting shift.
BTC may be behaving less like a high-beta tech asset and more like a scarce, macro-driven store of value.
If this trend continues, the next Bitcoin move could surprise a lot of people.
#DailyOrbit Watching Ethereum mainnet Gas prices stuck daily at the 1 Gwei floor, and ETH shifting from deflation to nearly 1% annual inflation, Ethereum developers have recently become anxious and proposed the highly controversial EIP-8361. The core content is particularly bizarre: they plan to forcibly burn a portion of the staking block rewards given to validators, attempting to use administrative orders to forcibly pull Ethereum back into deflation.
Once this proposal came out, the entire community exploded. Honestly, this move is a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. The fundamental reason Ethereum slid into inflation is that Layer 2 networks are freeloading on Layer 1's consensus security with extremely low Blob rent, and the mainnet lacks real high-frequency transactions to trigger EIP-1559 burning. Now, instead of figuring out how to make Layer 2 generate more profits, they turn around and cut the legitimate earnings of loyal staking nodes, which looks really bad.
What's worse, forcibly cutting validator rewards will shake Ethereum's most fundamental decentralized security foundation. Once staking yields are cut, many institutions and independent validators will find it unprofitable and choose to unstake and withdraw. Sacrificing the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of validators just to superficially achieve attractive deflation data is completely counterproductive.
The value of a token has never been supported by forcibly creating deflation through administrative means; the true moat is always the genuine prosperity of the underlying ecosystem. If Ethereum cannot resolve the deadlock over profit sharing between L1 and L2, no matter how much they tinker with staking rewards, it will only be self-deception. After $SOL broke through $108.12, it reached a technical extreme of overheating. The core conflict lies in the game between the deflation votes of SGP-2 and SGP-3 being realized and the profit-taking at high levels.
After a step-up from $91.52 to $108.12, EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 show a bullish alignment, indicating that the short-term trend is dominated by buying. Meanwhile, RSI6 reached 89.49, and the J value of KDJ rose to 98.68. The high-level indicator stagnation means position simulations have entered an extremely sensitive zone. The MACD DIF line at 2.31 is above the DEA line at 1.84, and the expanding histogram confirms that upward momentum has not yet faded, but the overbought indicators suppress the safety margin for chasing highs.
The priority driving this round of price restructuring is, in order: deflation governance expectations, chip lock-up, and technical momentum. SGP-2 plans to increase the deflation rate from 15% to 30%, and SGP-3 will raise the burn amount from 650 tokens to a maximum of 9,000 tokens. If both proposals achieve a two-thirds absolute majority, supply contraction will directly alter the inflation curve and increase risk appetite. Conversely, if the vote fails, the premium positions priced for deflation will quickly exit.
The bullish scenario is based on the premise that the deflation proposals pass smoothly after epoch 1023 ends. If funds continue to hold the $105 level after the positive news is realized, and the histogram continues to expand, the overbought indicators’ high-level stagnation will be digested through sideways consolidation, pushing the price to open new upside space. The signal that this scenario fails is a decline in opening volume and a break below EMA5 support.
The bearish scenario is triggered by the governance proposals failing to reach a two-thirds vote or profit-taking after the positive news is realized. Once the price breaks below $105, RSI6 will turn down from 89.49, leaving the stagnation zone, and concentrated profit-taking by bulls may cause a rapid phased pullback. The price will test the $91.52 initial support line. If a volume-backed stop in the pullback occurs and $108 is quickly reclaimed, the bearish scenario fails.
The entire trading desk’s failure boundary lies at $91.52. If the price breaks below $91.52 with volume, it indicates that the bullish structure built by the stepwise rise is completely destroyed, and the risk premium brought by the deflation narrative is fully erased.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on whether the actual vote count after epoch 1023 ends meets the two-thirds absolute majority, the turnover efficiency of the $105 support line, and how RSI6 corrects in the extreme zone.
#Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURR #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款The real core of tonight's market is that both BTC and US stocks are rising, but the money behind them is not the same.
BTC is currently around 79,600 U, with a net inflow of $232 million into the US spot ETF on August 26, marking the 8th consecutive day of inflows; the 81,000-86,000 range remains a key resistance zone. (ChainCatcher)
On the US stock side, after Nvidia's better-than-expected performance, the Nasdaq opened +0.87%, the S&P +0.45%, and AI trading is heating up again; however, the 10Y US Treasury yield remains at 4.67%, the DXY is about 99.19, and PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, so interest rate pressure has not disappeared. (Reuters)
My judgment: BTC relies on ETF funds, US stocks rely on AI profits. As long as BTC holds at 78,000 and ETFs keep flowing in, 80,000 looks more like a consolidation; for US stocks, it depends on whether long-term bonds can come down, otherwise, no matter how strong AI is, profits only hedge valuation pressure.Bitcoin has completely moved past the old cycle dominated by retail investors and mining circles, and the launch of spot ETFs has truly brought Wall Street institutions into the market. Today, $BTC operates two completely different logics: one is the large-cycle institutional allocation logic, supporting the market bottom; the other is on-chain whales, contract leverage, and short-term sentiment game logic, creating intense oscillations. Many people feel contradictory when viewing the market because they confuse these two systems, viewing short-term volatility through long-term logic or using short-term market views to deny the direction of the big cycle. From a large-cycle perspective, the incremental capital brought by ETFs is the strongest foundation for this round of the market. Institutional funds are not about short-term coin speculation; they are more about asset portfolio allocation, continuously making phased positions during pullbacks. Even if the market surges and then retreats, as long as there is no sustained large-scale outflow, the foundation of the large-scale upward cycle will not be easily destroyed. But institutional entry does not mean only rising and not falling; when they buy, they also take profits. When they reach key resistance levels, concentrated selling also occurs, which is a key reason why the 80,000 level is repeatedly under pressure. On-chain whales are the biggest variable in short-term markets. Some early holders have very low holding costs, and every time the price rises by one step, chips move to exchanges. Whenever the price approaches a critical resistance and whales concentrate in cashing out, invisible selling pressure is created, creating a false breakout and then a rapid pullback. Whales do not reverse the major trend brought by the four-year halving, but they can fully dominate the volatility for weeks or even one or two months. We often see ETFs stillLast night actually completed a very valuable stress test: PCE was hotter than expected, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to about 40%, but Crypto was not crushed.
Then Nvidia's earnings confirmed that AI Capex remains very strong, with ETH and SOL actually starting to outperform BTC.
US July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, month-on-month +0.2%; core PCE year-on-year remained at 3.3%.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 36% to about 40%.
Q2 GDP remained at 1.5%, but consumption and private demand were revised upward.
This was originally a negative combination for Crypto, but the market reaction was clearly more resilient than expected.
US stocks closed with only small declines: Dow -0.21%, S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.08%. Then Nvidia announced $96.2 billion in revenue, $89 billion from data centers, up 117% year-on-year, with next quarter revenue guidance of $108 billion; after-hours initially fell then rose about 4%, indicating that the peak of AI capital expenditure has not yet been confirmed.Brief summary:
Current BTC assessment: 🟡 High-level oscillation with a bullish bias, but risks are clearly rising; no top formation judged yet.
Three current positives:
The 78K area is temporarily holding, trend structure remains intact.
Open Interest (OI) has not surged wildly, so it’s not a leveraged long squeeze for now.
ETF still shows net inflows, institutions have not confirmed withdrawal.
Three risks:
ETF single-day inflows dropped sharply from +$300 million to near zero; spot incremental funds have clearly slowed.
Whales have started profit-taking, BTC inflows to exchanges are increasing.
Macro environment turns hawkish, easing expectations challenged; Jackson Hole remains a major test.
So my current inclination:
45%: After consolidation, continue to break through.
40%: First dip to 77K or even 75K, then rise.
15%: 81.27K is already a phase top.
In one sentence:
The trend is not broken yet, but it has entered a high-level supply-demand showdown zone. Do not chase the rally now; focus on whether 77–78K can hold. A renewed break above 81.3K with ETF strong inflows resuming would be a clearer confirmation of continued upward movement. Storage chips and cryptocurrencies are not directly causally related; they share a macro liquidity factor. Institutional quant funds classify both into a high Beta risk asset pool, often showing synchronized rises and falls, but each has independent fundamental drivers.
1. NVDA (NVIDIA)
Trading volume: On earnings report days, single-day trading reaches 50-60 million shares, with transaction amounts in the tens of billions of USD, leading liquidity in the sector.
Price performance: Surges significantly on earnings beats; pulls back with the tech sector during liquidity tightening phases.
Core logic: AI computing power driven by real orders, a sector bellwether; NVDA strength boosts overall market tech risk appetite, indirectly benefiting crypto; when institutions reduce portfolio exposure, NVDA is prioritized for trimming, dragging down risk asset sentiment.
2. SNDK (SanDisk)
Trading volume: During volatile phases, 8-14 million shares traded, transaction amounts 8-20 billion USD, with clear volume spikes at resistance levels.
Price performance: A storage cycle trading target, oscillates at highs, profit-taking concentrated after rallies, with large pullbacks.
Core logic: Trades NAND flash memory cycles; prices hitting prior dense trading zones trigger institutional cycle traders to take profits and exit; once storage price expectations diverge, capital flows in and out rapidly.
3. SKHYNIX (SK Hynix)
Trading volume: ADR US stock trades tens of millions of shares; local Korean stock volume is even larger, with high retail participation.
Price performance: Leader in HBM high-bandwidth memory, benefiting from AI computing power; also follows storage cycles with volatile swings.
Core logic: Tight HBM supply is the core positive; but with cross-market Korean stock + ADR, US market open triggers US capital rebalancing impacting ADR prices, often transmitting overnight US crypto and tech sentiment to SK Hynix.
4. MU (Micron Technology)
Trading volume: Trades 4-5 million shares, transaction amount around 4 billion USD, a core storage sector stock.
Price performance: A DRAM cycle stock, strong cyclical stock with huge sentiment elasticity; pullbacks are also sharp when risk appetite declines.
Core logic: Trades storage chip price cycles; when overall market risk appetite contracts, cyclical growth stocks are heavily sold by institutions.
5. SPCX
Trading volume: ETF-type target, volume follows chip sector capital inflows and outflows.
Price performance: Passively reflects semiconductor sector overall performance, with less volatility than individual stocks.
Core logic: Industry Beta tool, does not generate independent trends; rises with sector inflows, falls with outflows.
III. Complete summary of cross-asset linkage (BTC/ETH rally followed by collective US stock sell-off logic)
Rising phase (Asia-Europe session): Liquidity is weak, small amounts of capital push BTC and ETH higher, driving altcoin sentiment; meanwhile AI storage chip futures slightly follow, acting as a risk appetite preview.
US market open window: Wall Street institutions perform unified portfolio rebalancing.
Crypto side: BTC at 80,000, ETH at 2,550 resistance levels, concentrated unlocking and profit-taking; derivative long positions cascade liquidations;
US stock side: NVDA, SNDK, SKHYNIX, MU and other cyclical growth stocks simultaneously take profits and reduce exposure; SPCX follows sector decline.
Target differentiation characteristics
Mainstream (BTC/ETH): Pullback but stable base;
Narrative coins (SOL/ZEC/ENA): Larger pullbacks than mainstream but supported by narratives, relatively more resistant than MEME;
MEME / small caps (TRUMP/CHIP/CAP): Rapid liquidity depletion, largest drawdowns;
US chip stocks: NVDA driven by AI fundamentals; SNDK/SKHYNIX/MU trade storage cycles, share risk sentiment with crypto but price moves determined by chip supply and demand.
Key observation indicators: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, BTC-ETF capital flows, chip stock trading volume, altcoin turnover rate.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC is approaching 80,800, $ETH stands above 2,550, but what is truly being cleansed is not the directional judgment, but the margin for error in high leverage.
This market move is not a one-sided emotional outburst, but a typical "short squeeze spiral"—price pushes up triggering forced liquidation of short positions, liquidations passively buy in further driving up the price, creating a loop that accelerates itself upward. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $228 million, with over 110,000 people wiped out, primarily those holding high-leverage short positions at elevated levels.
Meanwhile, ETH funding rates have surged to 0.01%, the highest level since August 2025. This means the cost of holding long positions is rapidly accumulating—the stronger the market momentum, the more asymmetric the holding costs between longs and shorts, tipping the balance.
Short-term spikes, pulse-like price pumps, and frequent large order placements and cancellations are typical signs that the market has entered "hunt mode." Key levels are repeatedly tested, and liquidation lines become natural liquidity magnets. In this structure, position sizing is more important than directional calls—getting the direction right but overleveraging can still lead to death by retracement.
Lowering leverage and leaving room for error is more meaningful than guessing where the top is. The market can restart, but blown positions cannot. Survival is the prerequisite to discussing what comes next. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 1. BTC (Bitcoin)
Trading Volume: During the surge phase, the 24h total spot + derivatives turnover surged to 60-70 billion USD; on the day of the US stock market's sharp opening drop, trading volume further expanded, with heavy selling pressure, and spot ETF funds shifted from net inflow to slight net outflow.
Price Performance: The Asia-Europe session surged past 80,000, then retreated after the US market opened, pulling back 7-9% intraday from the high.
Core Logic
1) The upward momentum came from short covering squeeze + interest rate cut expectations + optimistic narrative on US crypto regulatory bills, with low liquidity in Asia-Europe session completing a pulse surge;
2) 80,000 is a strong resistance zone with a large amount of break-even positions and ETF institutional profit-taking piled up;
3) US market opening liquidity expanded, US Treasury yields rebounded, risk assets were repriced uniformly, high-level long positions were liquidated in a chain reaction, leading to volume-driven decline.
4) BTC is the market-wide risk anchor; other altcoin trends are highly dependent on BTC's overall environment.
2. ETH (Ethereum)
Trading Volume: Surged to around 2,550 with 24h turnover of 3.2-3.6 billion USD; volume significantly increased during the plunge, and derivatives open interest quickly declined.
Price Performance: After hitting 2,550, it quickly pulled back 8-11%, with a larger correction than BTC.
Core Logic
1) The 2,400-2,550 range holds a large amount of DeFi staked users' historical trapped positions, with stronger break-even selling pressure than BTC;
2) DeFi ecosystem funds flow in and out with the overall market; when the market turns bearish, DeFi-related selling pressure is concentrated;
3) ETH has higher correlation with the Nasdaq; it shows greater correction elasticity when US stock risk appetite declines.
3. SOL (Solana)
Trading Volume: During the surge phase, 24h turnover was 1.1-1.7 billion USD; open interest rose significantly; among altcoins, trading activity was second only to ETH.
Price Performance: This rebound outperformed BTC, but after the market turned bearish, the pullback was larger than BTC/ETH.
Core Logic
1) The Solana ecosystem hosts many MEME coins (including TRUMP, etc.); funds flow in during good market conditions and quickly exit when the market weakens;
2) High Beta altcoin with a high proportion of leveraged positions; stop-loss cascades are stronger during market sell-offs.
4. TRUMP (MEME Coin)
Trading Volume: At the emotional peak, 24h turnover reached about 300 million USD with extremely high turnover rate; volume quickly shrank after rumors were dispelled.
Price Performance: Weekly high +75%; after rumors were disproved and project team cashed out, it sharply pulled back with huge volatility.
Core Logic: Purely narrative-driven MEME, pumped by rumors of "Trump crypto policy"; no fundamental support, whales sell during the rise; volume highly dependent on news heat, liquidity dries up quickly as news fades.
5. ENA (Ethena)
Trading Volume: 24h turnover 200-260 million USD; volume continuously increased during the rebound phase; a strong altcoin in this round with high capital attention.
Price Performance: Weekly high +85%; relatively resistant during market plunge, with smaller pullback than MEME coins.
Core Logic: Stablecoin protocol narrative combined with large financing and public bullish views from influential figures; supported by real protocol revenue, not purely emotional MEME; still follows overall market risk appetite and cannot stand alone during systemic market downturns.
6. ZEC (Zcash)
Trading Volume: 24h turnover 600-800 million USD; volume significantly expanded during Grayscale ETF rumor phase.
Price Performance: Driven by privacy narrative, it rebounded sharply earlier but showed volume-driven decline during market pullback.
Core Logic: Grayscale submitted ZEC ETF amendment documents, fueling privacy coin speculation; after positive expectations were priced in, market sell-off triggered profit-taking; ETF is only at document submission stage, not finalized, and expectation disproof brought selling pressure.
7. CHIP, CAP
Trading Volume: Small market cap narrative coins with overall volume far below mainstream coins; liquidity thin with clear pulse market characteristics.
Price Performance: Followed AI / computing power narratives to surge briefly during market uptrend; large pullbacks when market turns bearish.
Core Logic: AI on-chain concept speculation with high concentration of holdings; small capital can drive price up, but lacks support during declines, causing volatile swings.
Summary of Crypto Token Commonalities:
BTC and ETH determine the market bottom; SOL, ZEC, ENA are main narrative coins; TRUMP, CHIP, CAP are sentiment-driven small coins.
During uptrends: low liquidity in Asia-Europe session pushes prices up; during downtrends: US market opening liquidity releases pressure, resistance zone holdings loosen + leveraged positions liquidate in chain, volume expands, completing rapid pullbacks.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 BTC surged from 64,000 to 81,000 and then dropped back to 79,000. Are you dizzy from this roller coaster?
I watched the on-chain data all night, and the more I look, the less I can sleep.
Whales are frantically buying. Addresses holding over ten thousand coins have pushed to a 6-month high, consuming $1.5 billion in one month. What about retail investors? The number of wallets is shrinking. Every bottom follows this broken script: big players take the profits, retail investors cut losses and run.
More excitingly — ancient wallets dormant for 10 to 15 years suddenly woke up and transferred out 553 BTC. One was bought at a cost of $5, now yielding 1,535,911%. Not a mistake, one and a half million times. The coins didn’t enter exchanges, but don’t celebrate too soon; when ancient coins move, historically it usually happens at market cycle tops.
The craziest part is yet to come: leverage is maxed out on both sides. Breaking above $82K liquidated $1.47 billion in short positions; dropping below $74K liquidated $1.4 billion in long positions. No matter which way it goes, it’s a violent market with bloodshed everywhere.
You’re now standing at a crossroads, don’t stand too long.
DYOR. This is not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $BNB Today's trade review:
After the market opened today, I placed a short position on $BTC. Although this trade eventually hit the take profit smoothly, the entry point was actually not ideal. Right after placing the order, I immediately felt some regret because the entry was inside a previous FVG and quite close to the support-resistance flip below. In other words, I was shorting above potential support.
Fortunately, the price still reached the take profit level in the end, but the profit does not prove that the entry was correct.
Then, observing the relative movement of BTC and $ETH, I thought they might form an SMT reversal. After ETH re-entered the 5-minute FVG, I opened a short position, which I am still holding.
Additionally, the previously positioned $GRASS did not show the expected rally in terms of time and price performance, so I chose to exit today. The pre-unlock pump was only a probabilistic assumption; if the market doesn't respond, there's no need to keep holding.SOL Today's Trading Volume, Price Increase, and Specific Judgment on Capital Flow
Market Overview: 24-hour price increase about +7-12%, intraday volatility 11-13%, high beta significantly stronger than BTC and ETH.
• 24-hour total turnover $6.3-6.6 billion; spot about $860 million, contracts $5.4-5.7 billion, contracts account for nearly 85%, showing strong leverage-driven characteristics.
• Open interest remains high at $6.6-7 billion, funding rate positive, bulls dominant; 24-hour mainly short liquidations, short squeezes contribute most of the intraday gains.
I. Upward Drivers
1. Market risk appetite warms up, BTC and ETH oscillate with strength, market starts mainstream altcoin rotation, capital flows out from BTC to SOL;
2. Solana on-chain DeFi and Meme sectors heat up, on-chain existing funds active;
3. Contract side: accumulated short positions stop losses and short squeeze, amplifying the rise, spot buying power weaker than contract breakout.
II. Complete Capital Flow
1. Institutional ETF funds: slight net inflow, no explosive large-scale accumulation, trend-following allocation rather than active large-scale pumping.
2. Crypto circulating rotation funds: profits taken from BTC/ETH flow into SOL; some stablecoins directly enter to long SOL; meanwhile, part of SOL internal funds divert to on-chain Meme small tokens. No large external OTC funds directly entering.
3. Contract leverage funds: short covering buying pushes price up; after surge, large new long positions open, further raising open interest. Leverage is both the upward force and a hidden risk for future correction liquidations.
4. On-chain whales differentiation: long-term staking locked unchanged; swing traders transfer chips to exchanges at highs to realize profits, continuous selling pressure above.
III. Key Price Levels and Risks
• Short-term resistance: $107-110; first support $98; strong support $94-95.
• Characteristics: SOL beta far exceeds BTC and ETH, sharp rises and deeper pullbacks; contract proportion too high, once the market weakens, liquidation drops will be very severe.
IV. Core Conclusion
Today's rise is a combination of market warming altcoin rotation and contract short squeeze resonance. Most volume comes from derivatives, spot increment limited. This is a circulating funds market with strong impulse but highly tied to BTC market. If BTC breaks key support, SOL's correction will be significantly larger than BTC and ETH.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
#Earnings Observer: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue starts to realize
#BTC surges then falls, options expiry amplifies key level game A company that makes money by "printing dollars" has seen its stock price drop 70%. Circle $CRCL issuer of USDC, the world's second-largest stablecoin, will list on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 and is known as the "first stablecoin stock." The IPO price was $31, and on its first day it soared 168%, reaching an all-time high of $298 within weeks, with its market cap once surpassing $70 billion. And then? It then fell all the way to $49.90, down 83% from its peak. Now the stock price is about $89.91, with a market cap of about $22.8 billion, down about 70% from the peak. But interestingly, despite a 70% drop in stock price, the company's fundamentals continue to grow. USDC's circulating supply has grown from about $30 billion at listing to $77 billion now, with revenue and profit hitting new highs every quarter. By Q2 2026, it had already achieved profitability. This creates an extremely divided situation: fundamentals are getting better, stock prices are getting cheaper. Is this a misplaced opportunity, or a value trap? Let's break it down and explain everything thoroughly today. 1. What kind of company is Circle really? Many people think Circle is just "the one issuing USDC," but its business model is more interesting than you think. Core business: USDC stablecoin issuance USDC is the world's second-largest stablecoin, with a circulating supply of about $77 billion, second only to Tether's USDT. The logic behind Circle's USDC issuance is simple: users deposit 1 USDC, Circle issues 1 USDC, and then...During the US stock market session, the cryptocurrency concept stock sector continued its upward trend, with the overall sector sentiment being very strong. Multiple stocks experienced significant rallies, fully reflecting the high volatility and high beta characteristics of crypto stocks. Among individual stocks, MSTR rose 12.13%. As a market-recognized Bitcoin leveraged stock, its share price is highly sensitive to Bitcoin price changes and often outperforms spot Bitcoin during market recoveries; trading platform COIN increased by 5.81%, stablecoin issuer CRCL rose 6.58%; SBET gained 7.63%, mining company stock BMNR increased 6.60%; retail brokerage platform HOOD rose 2.49%; small-cap stock PURR surged sharply, with a gain of 20.46%, becoming the sector's top gainer.
This round of sector gains was mainly driven by the recovery in crypto spot prices, a rise in market risk appetite, and continuous capital inflows into crypto-related listed companies. The logic behind the gains varies among different stocks: MSTR benefits from its large Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet, enjoying asset appreciation from rising coin prices; COIN and CRCL benefit from increased market trading activity, improving platform fee and stablecoin business revenue expectations; mining companies like BMNR directly benefit from mining profit recovery driven by higher coin prices; HOOD more reflects changes in retail user trading sentiment; small-cap stock PURR shows greater volatility, with speculative capital playing a significant role.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Floating profit ratio soars to 75%, nearly 30,000 BTC deposited into exchanges in a single day: What exactly are the veteran holders panicking about before the 80,000 mark?
After BTC surged past $80,000, the whole network was shouting that the bull market had started, but reviewing the on-chain data these past few days has given me chills. The latest Glassnode data shows that the floating profit ratio of short-term holders (STH) has skyrocketed from 26% to 74.9%, and major exchanges have seen a net inflow of nearly 28,000 BTC in a single day.
Translated into plain language, this data means: short-term speculators who bought at low prices in the past month or two, three-quarters of them have made substantial profits, and this group is urgently moving BTC into exchanges. Anyone who has experienced one or two full bull and bear cycles will understand that when short-term funds’ floating profits concentrate and explode, it is often the most dangerous moment with the heaviest profit-taking selling pressure on the market.
Every major correction in a bull market is essentially caused by concentrated profit-taking selling by short-term holders, triggering a long liquidation stampede. Now BTC is stuck stubbornly oscillating just before the psychological $80,000 threshold. If the spot ETF buying outside the market hesitates even slightly or net inflows slow down, these nearly 30,000 BTC of profit-taking chips ready to be dumped can instantly create a deep pit in the market.
This does not mean the bull market is over, but at such an extremely crowded floating profit position, blindly chasing highs and leveraging up is basically putting your neck on the market makers’ knife edge. Be patient and wait for this batch of short-term chips to complete high-level turnover and wash out the impatient long leverage, only then can the market move more healthily.$ETH is showing a clearer bullish structure, with a Golden Cross forming between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. If price holds strongly above the $2,383–$2,495 zone, the next targets could be $2,791 and $3,381. However, losing this zone could send the price back toward $2,150. 🚀📈$BTC & $ETH : HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation or another warning before volatility returnThe current market structure is starting to echo 2022, but there’s one major difference: institutional demand. Back in 2022, $BTC bounced sharply after the June selloff before eventually revisiting the lows near $16K. $ETH followed a similar pattern before the cycle bottom was confirmed. Fast-forward to today: $BTC has pulled back toward the $78K area after briefly pushing above $81K, while $ETH is holding around $2.5K. But unlike 2022, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen nearly $2B in weekly inflowsBTC has reclaimed the $80,000 level, but what really matters now is not "how much it has risen," but whether turnover can be completed above $80,000.
In this round, BTC quickly surged from around $77,500, reaching a high of $80,776. On the 15-minute chart, it has clearly shifted from previous consolidation to a strong structure.
However, I think this is no longer the best time to simply chase the rally.
From the chart, there are several details worth noting:
First, $80,000 is transitioning from a resistance level to a support level.
Earlier, after BTC’s first surge, it quickly pulled back to around $79,000 but was soon pushed back above $80,000 by capital inflows. The current price is about $80,450, with MA5 and MA10 turning upward again, and the price still running above the Bollinger middle band at $79,806.
This indicates that the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
Second, the $80,500–$80,800 range has formed a new short-term resistance zone.
There is obvious selling pressure near the peak at $80,776, and the KDJ indicator has reached a high region close to 80. If volume continues to expand and breaks through here, the market’s next real challenge won’t just be $81,000 but the larger resistance band between $81,000 and $83,000. Market institutions currently also view the $80,000–$83,000 area as a key short-term resistance zone for BTC. (The Block)
Third, this rally is not driven purely by short-term sentiment.
Recently, BTC’s rise has coincided with a weakening dollar, changes in the US Treasury market, and renewed demand for spot ETFs. In August, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $2.4 billion, showing a clear improvement in capital conditions compared to before. (The Block) Reuters also pointed out that this breakthrough above $80,000 is related to the weaker dollar, bond market interventions, and the market’s renewed trading logic of "currency depreciation/scarce assets." (Reuters)
So I now prefer to interpret the market as follows:
The $77,000–$80,000 range was the first phase of valuation repair; above $80,000 is the real test of this rally’s strength.
In the short term, I will focus on three key levels:
80,000: the psychological threshold bulls must defend
80,500–80,800: the recent breakout confirmation zone
81,000–83,000: the core resistance band that will determine if the rally can continue to expand
If the price falls back below $80,000 and further loses support near $79,430, this breakout may revert to high-level consolidation.
Conversely, if BTC can sustain turnover above $80,000 rather than relying on a single large bullish candle to pull it up, I would be more optimistic about the continuation.
A truly healthy rally is never without pullbacks; it’s when every pullback finds buyers willing to accumulate at higher levels.
What I most want to see next is whether the market treats $80,000 as a new floor or just a temporary top.
Do you think this time $80,000 can truly hold, or is it the last emotional surge before Jackson Hole? $BTC In 2022, after a sharp sell-off, $BTC experienced a strong rebound, but then retested key lows and finally confirmed the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path. Now, $BTC has fallen from a recent high of about $84.6K to around $79.2K, while $ETH is holding around $2.6K. But the biggest difference this round is that institutional funds are continuously entering the market. Recently, US spot BTC ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of about $2.3B, and ETH ETF funds have remained relatively strong. Meanwhile, BTC is still consolidating repeatedly in the $78K–$80K range, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for the next direction choice. 📌 What I am focusing on now is: • Can $BTC regain the $81.5K level • Can the support near $78K hold? • $ETH Can it break through $2.7K • Will ETF funds continue to maintain net inflows? • Will leveraged positions and liquidation sizes start to rise significantly. If funds continue to flow in, this pullback feels more like a healthy turnover after a rally; But if key support is breached, volatility could expand rapidly. History won't repeat itself. What truly matters is: this time, will institutional funds change the market's script? 👀Complete Analysis of BTC and ETH Repeatedly Moving Sideways at High Levels with Huge Volatility
Currently, BTC and ETH are violently oscillating up and down, frequently spiking intraday, surging sharply then quickly retreating. The core reasons are severe divergence between bulls and bears, misalignment between spot and futures structures, fluctuating macro expectations, and fragmented capital—all overlapping. This is a high-level chip exchange after a rebound, with no clear one-sided trend formed yet.
I. Four Core Reasons
1. Spot capital is severely fragmented, no unified consensus formed
• Bull forces: ETFs like BlackRock continuously buy on dips, long-term whales lock coins in cold wallets, providing a support base during declines.
• Bear forces: Large whales in resistance zones continuously realize profits, transferring coins to exchanges to sell whenever prices rise; some institutions avoid chasing highs, taking profits on rallies, causing selling pressure at every upward wave.
2. Excessive leverage in futures, two-way chain liquidations amplify volatility (the biggest driver of volatility)
Open interest (OI) of futures across the network remains high, with derivatives trading volume far exceeding spot volume.
Price breakouts upward trigger short squeezes, rapidly pushing prices higher; upon reaching resistance, new longs open in clusters; once buying power fades, mass long liquidations occur, prices quickly drop back to support, with bulls and bears alternating washouts.
ETH’s base is thinner, futures proportion higher, so its oscillation amplitude is significantly greater than BTC’s.
3. Macro expectations swing repeatedly, news-driven back-and-forth tug-of-war
The market simultaneously trades forward rate cut expectations while pricing in the Fed maintaining high rates in September or even a small chance of a hike.
US Treasury yields, the dollar, and AI-related US stocks (Nvidia, memory stocks) fluctuate slightly, and crypto immediately reacts. Positive news causes price spikes; risk signals cause quick pullbacks. Frequent external news switches intensify sideways movement.
4. Intense chip battles in key resistance-support zones
BTC 74800–79800, ETH 2240–2460, with large amounts of trapped and bottom-fishing chips accumulated inside these ranges.
Trapped holders sell on rallies above; bottom-fishing funds buy dips below; without enough incremental spot capital to break through chips, the market can only repeatedly consume chips within the range.
II. Real Capital Flow Breakdown
1. ETF institutions: do not chase highs, only buy dips. Net inflows support bottoms during declines; inflows slow or slightly reverse near resistance, indicating range-bound swing trading rather than blind one-sided buying.
2. On-chain whales: long-term locked coins remain unmoved; swing whales realize profits at resistance and buy back at support, intensifying oscillations through high sell and buy activity.
3. Futures capital: short-term speculative funds open positions both ways, going long on rises, taking profits on highs and reversing to short; liquidations further amplify price swings.
4. Existing stablecoins: rotate between mainstream coins and AI/RWA altcoins, with no sustained one-way inflow into BTC or ETH.
III. Market Divergence Performance
• BTC: frequent two-way order sweeps within the range, often a single candlestick piercing both upper resistance and lower support simultaneously, clearing stop-loss orders on both sides.
• ETH: high beta characteristic, more aggressive on the upside than BTC, deeper pullbacks, more sensitive to futures leverage and overall market sentiment.
IV. When Will the Sideways Movement End?
✅ To end sideways and start moving up:
1. ETFs show continuous large net inflows over multiple days, spot volume significantly expands, no longer relying solely on futures;
2. Volume breakout above key resistance with daily close holding above;
3. Swing whales stop concentrated profit-taking at resistance.
❌ To end sideways and turn to a pullback:
1. Key support breaks down with volume;
2. ETFs turn to continuous net outflows;
3. US Treasury yields keep rising, macro risk appetite weakens broadly.
Summary in One Sentence
The repeated sideways movement essentially reflects the chip battle under existing supply with bull-bear divergence. Spot institutions buy dips and sell rallies, combined with high-leverage futures two-way liquidations and fluctuating macro expectations, causing sharp ups and downs. Only incremental spot capital can break the wide oscillation pattern; otherwise, the range-bound washout will continue.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 NVIDIA's strong earnings report did not break through Micron's upper chip wall. After $MU surged to $983.6, it quickly increased volume and dipped, showing typical characteristics of profit-taking and a false breakout. The core conflict centers on the friction between profit-taking in the memory sector and valuation reappraisal.
On the market, $MU rose intraday to $983.6 before facing pressure and falling back, breaking through yesterday's closing price of $938 and the key support at $930, reaching a low near $915. Against the backdrop of the semiconductor sector's overall strength and NVIDIA's nearly 8% surge, Micron's drop of over 2% highlights the independent capital outflow trend in the memory sub-sector.
In terms of driving logic, NVIDIA's positive earnings had been fully priced in pre-market, triggering profit-taking liquidity at highs right at the open. The $980 to $1000 range is a strong resistance zone repeatedly tested without success. The $983.6 high was resisted, forming a technical false breakout with a local lower high. Subsequently, the consecutive breaches of $938 and $930 triggered quantitative short-selling and long stop-loss orders.
For the bullish scenario, if Micron can find buying support in the first support zone between $915 and $910 and stabilize to rebound back into the $924 to $930 range, downward momentum will initially slow. A further breakout above the new resistance zone of $945 to $956 would return the market to a consolidation pattern. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a direct volume-driven break below the $910 whole number support.
For the bearish scenario, if the price effectively breaks below the $910 support, selling pressure will likely push the stock down to the $900 to $888 range. If the $888 support is broken again, the downside will open up, targeting $870 to $850. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a strong recovery above the key resistance at $945.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, the trading desk will focus on the strength of the $910 support and whether capital continues to shift from the memory sector to direct AI targets like NVIDIA.
#Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURR #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款Tomorrow night at 10 PM, the real directional choice for BTC arrives: the market is not waiting for data, but for how Wash explains the data.
What’s most frustrating about the current market is not the ups and downs, but the lack of continuity.
After BTC surged above $80,000, it quickly pulled back; ETH is tugging back and forth around 2490; HYPE remains strong, but the odds of chasing at highs or shorting against the trend are both declining. This is a typical liquidity contraction before an event: breakouts get sold, drops get bought, bulls and bears are both waiting for a catalyst.
Tomorrow night three key variables will be released:
① Wash’s Jackson Hole speech;
② Employment benchmark revision;
③ Michigan consumer confidence.
The real key is the combined outcome.
If employment is significantly revised downward and Wash downplays the need for further tightening, U.S. Treasury yields may fall, and the market could reprice for easing expectations; conversely, if he continues to emphasize inflation stickiness, risk assets will face another round of repricing.
In the short term, I’m focusing on three levels:
BTC: holding 79,200 keeps the structure relatively strong;
ETH: not breaking 2440, continue watching 2550–2600;
HYPE: around 82 is the short-term strength/weakness dividing line.
The most dangerous thing in event-driven markets is never being wrong about direction, but being right and getting liquidated by a fake-out first.
So tonight I’d rather do less than go heavy betting on the outcome early. The real opportunity to act is the second directional signal the market gives after Wash speaks. $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC breaks through 80,000, $MSTR surges 13%, but I always feel this is the last bull trap BTC current price 80,388, up 3%, breaking through the 80,000 mark. MSTR is even more aggressive, current price 137.97, soaring nearly 13%, RSI6 as high as 89, seriously overbought. On the surface: bulls are celebrating, 80,000 is finally held. My judgment: this is an emotion-driven "short squeeze" rally, not a trend breakout. There are three reasons: First, volume-price divergence. BTC broke through the p#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注. Major players adjusting positions indicate large funds are still waiting for clearer right-side signals. Altcoins face short-term pressure, but this does not affect the structural opportunities of the on-chain leader LINK, as the ecosystem narrative remains solid.
From a technical perspective, LINK shows a slight pullback on the one-hour chart, only -0.15% from the high, indicating strong consolidation; the four-hour chart remains in an upward channel, -3.85% from the high, with the trend intact. The top 10 buy orders in the order book total 7246, far exceeding the 5442 sell orders, showing clear buyer dominance; the funding rate at 0.0098% is within a healthy range, with no signs of overcrowded longs.
Key levels: Resistance at 12.38 (four hours ago high), support at 11.17 (one hour ago low).
Trading advice: Buy in batches on pullback to 11.70, stop loss at 11.16, target 12.38.
Risk points: Overbought by more than 40% on the four-hour chart; if BTC weakens, LINK may face sharp drops; overall order book depth is average, sudden sell-offs may cause flash crashes, strict position control is recommended.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $LINK Before Walsh's appearance, the Federal Reserve first played the "hawk card": the real test for BTC comes tonight
On the eve of the Jackson Hole climax, Federal Reserve officials have consecutively sent hawkish signals on inflation. The core contradiction is very clear: PCE year-on-year remains at 3.7%, core PCE holds at 3.3%, which is significantly above the 2% target, and the U.S. economy is not weak enough to require immediate easing.
This means Walsh is not facing the question of "whether to cut rates," but rather how to explain the policy boundaries under high inflation.
The market focuses on two scenarios:
Hawkish: Emphasizing inflation stickiness and retaining the possibility of further tightening, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to strengthen, BTC needs to guard against failing to break through $80,000, and ETH and other high-elasticity assets may see deeper pullbacks.
Dovish: Acknowledging that current financial conditions are already sufficiently restrictive, or providing conditions for a future shift, risk appetite is expected to quickly recover, and BTC will attempt to break above $80,000 again.
The most troublesome is continued ambiguity—the policy divergence cannot converge, and the market continues to suffer from high volatility and double hits.
Don't rush to bet on that candlestick now. Officials have already applied enough pressure; Walsh is the ultimate price setter. Manage your positions before the speech and follow the money flow after the speech. $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Tomorrow is not a directional day, but a "volatility day": $6.4 billion in options + the Wash speech landing simultaneously
After BTC failed to break through $80,000 and fell back, the market has entered a high-level tug-of-war again. The issue is that two major variables will land simultaneously tomorrow, potentially further amplifying short-term volatility.
First, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire concentratedly. A large number of strike prices are distributed in the $75,000–$80,000 range. As delivery approaches, market makers' hedging, position migration, and Gamma effects may all amplify intraday spikes.
Second, Wash will release policy signals at Jackson Hole. The market is currently most sensitive not to a simple "rate hike" or "rate cut," but to how he defines the relationship between inflation stickiness, employment slowdown, and the next policy steps. As long as the wording exceeds expectations, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC could all be repriced simultaneously.
Previously, BTC's rise was driven both by ETF spot buying and short covering. The ETF net inflow of about $1.9 billion per week provided underlying support, but after continuous gains, profit-taking and leveraged positions have also increased significantly.
Therefore, the biggest risk tomorrow is not getting the direction wrong, but getting the direction right and still being liquidated by a spike.
Look for a breakthrough at 80,000, and support at 76,000–78,000. Before the event lands, high leverage especially requires caution; set take-profit and stop-loss in advance, and don't gamble your position on a single candlestick. $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 83,000 is the real tough battle for BTC.
According to OKX market data, $BTC is quoted at $80,336, up 2.81%.
$ETH is quoted at $2,522, up 2.79%.
$SOL is quoted at $106.89, up 11.03%.
$HYPE is quoted at $84.90, up 4.89%.
$OKB is quoted at $113.81, up 2.60%.
Total market capitalization is $2.71 trillion, with 946 rising and 245 falling; Solana ecosystem up 10.69%, DeFAI up 6.95%.
Net inflows for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE spot ETFs are $232 million, $192 million, $9.14 million, and $14.71 million respectively.
Weekly net inflows for BTC and ETH reached $1.918 billion and $693 million, indicating the rise is not just driven by short squeezes.
It should be noted that the area above BTC is not easy; Glassnode points out that between $83,000 and $86,000 there is a pressure zone with 1.05 million long-term holder chips, which is the first breakeven selling pressure zone.
Relatively, SOL is hotter; DeFi Development Corp increased holdings by 19,000 SOL, and a trader went long 100,000 SOL with 20x leverage, increasing both treasury and leverage.
It seems this rebound is supported by ETFs and on-chain funds. SOL is already quite crowded. If BTC can absorb the chips between $83,000 and $86,000, the market will open new space; otherwise, high leverage retracements will come quickly. #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
$ZEC ETF's first day trading volume reached $14.8 million. What does this scale indicate?
Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF was officially listed on NYSE Arca, with a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million and a closing drop of 1.54%. Compared to BTC ETF's first-day $4.6 billion, this is barely a fraction, but this is the real market level for altcoin ETFs.
The market followed the typical "good news priced in" script. Before listing, ZEC surged from below 600 to an eight-year high of 880, rising 56% in a week. After the ETF launch, expectations were realized and it retreated to around 787.
There are several details behind ZCSH: a 2.5% management fee, much higher than mainstream BTC ETFs, reflecting the niche positioning of privacy assets; DCG plans to inject 200,000 ZEC to form the initial liquidity base; Grayscale positions it as a "high-risk satellite allocation in a digital asset portfolio."
The ETF brought Zcash into the US stock trading session, but this scale indicates that the real big money is still watching. Whether privacy coins can open more space under a compliant framework depends on subsequent net subscription data.BTC has climbed back above $80,000, ETH has simultaneously returned above $2,500. On the surface, risk assets are entering a strong phase again. But if you look at the crypto market and US stocks together, you'll find that this round of rally isn't simply a "full return to risk appetite," but rather a clear structural divergence. 1. BTC Climbs Back to $80,000—The Key Is Whether the Breakout Can Be Turned into Support Currently, BTC's current price is about $80,364, up 2.94% in 24 hours. The intraday high reached $80,800, and the lowest was around $77,858. This indicates that BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 mark, but intraday trading still shows significant volatility. $80,000 isn't just a round number; more importantly, it's a psychological barrier repeatedly contested by the market. If BTC can continue to hold above 80,000 and still have capital support during pullbacks, then this rally is closer to a "valid breakout." Conversely, if the price quickly falls back below 80,000, be alert that this surge is just an upward expansion within a high-level consolidation range. Therefore, the core question for BTC right now is no longer "whether it has risen," but whether there is sustained buying above 80,000. 2. ETH rises simultaneously, but short-term elasticity is being re-released ETH is currently around $2,521, up 2.9% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $2,566 and a low of $2,438. Compared to the previous period when BTC clearly led the rally and ETH caught up slowly, the gains of both are now fundamentalImpact Simulation of Three Speech Scenarios on KO
🔹Scenario 1: Hawkish Speech Stance (Maintaining High Interest Rates Longer, Keeping Possibility of Further Rate Hikes)
- Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields rise, tech growth stocks suffer heavy declines, market risk aversion intensifies.
- KO Price Movement Logic: Short-term positive (safe-haven buying), funds flee from high-volatility tech stocks and flow into defensive blue chips with stable cash flow and reliable dividends; KO has a chance to retest the previous high resistance zone at 92‑92.5.
- Medium to Long-term Risks: Prolonged high interest rates raise risk-free returns, rising Treasury yields weaken KO’s dividend relative appeal, high valuations are unsustainable, and valuation correction pressure remains after the rebound.
🔹Scenario 2: Dovish Speech Stance (Implying Rate Cut Window is Near, Confirming End of Tightening)
- Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields decline, risk appetite recovers, funds rotate back into tech growth sectors.
- KO Price Movement Logic: Short-term pressure and pullback, safe-haven demand fades, profit-taking exits, price likely to test support zone at 88.8‑89.0; if the broader market strengthens comprehensively, KO enters sideways consolidation.
- Medium to Long-term: The start of a rate cut cycle benefits consumer stock valuation recovery, and a deep pullback opens mid-term upside potential.
🔹Scenario 3: Neutral and Cautious (Data-Dependent, No Clear Interest Rate Guidance)
- Market Reaction: No significant change in rate expectations, the broader market fluctuates narrowly.
Macro Market Scenario Analysis｜$KO Coca-Cola: PCE Inflation Stickiness + Consumption Stagnation Background, Jackson Hole Speech Scenario Analysis
📌Current Macro Background
July PCE year-on-year stuck at 3.7%, inflation stickiness exceeding expectations, while real consumption excluding prices is nearly stagnant, showing an economic dilemma of "persistent inflation and weakening demand" characteristic of stagflation. The market is highly anticipating statements from Federal Reserve officials at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will directly impact U.S. Treasury yields and market risk appetite, thereby affecting Coca-Cola's price trend.
As a defensive staple consumer stock, Coca-Cola's market logic contrasts with growth stocks: the core of the trend is capital risk rotation + interest rate valuation comparison, rather than short-term revenue changes. The current price has returned near 90, having previously seen profit-taking from the historical high of 92.49, with valuation at multi-year highs (TTM P/E ratio about 27 times), facing pressure for valuation premium correction. 1.05M #BTC of long-term holder supply sits between $83K and $86K, the first heavy cost-basis shelf above spot at $79K.
Effectively all of it has held through the entire drawdown, making that band the test of whether patient supply sells at breakeven.$ETH has been sideways at 2,500 for five days, what am I thinking?
ETH is now hovering around 2,500, basically flat in the last 24h. It has risen 33.9% throughout August, from 1,861 at the start of the month to now, but in the last five trading days, the price has been grinding within a narrow range of 2,440-2,570.
First, the positive side: ETFs are really buying. Last week saw a net inflow of $697 million, the strongest week in 2026; the latest single day added another $180 million. Staking, spot, and institutional funds are all present, this foundation is more solid than the May rally.
Now, what keeps me uneasy: since breaking through 1,875 to now, $ETH has risen over 30% without a single decent pullback. The liquidation chart shows the thickest leverage piled up at 2,545-2,555 across the market, prices often get sucked into such zones—what happens after? Usually a shakeout. CoinGlass shows leverage also stacked below 2,415, both ends are tinder.
My current issue is not direction, but rhythm. The bullish view remains unchanged, but in a rally with no pullbacks over 30%, adding positions is like feeding fuel to the liquidation engine for free; no one's money is blown by the wind...
No chasing if 2,550 doesn't break, if it breaks then 2,656 is the next story. Continue dollar-cost averaging, leverage traders should take a break.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ After discussing the intense battle between Maji and JackYi, let's shift our focus back to the market — the short-term ups and downs really aren't worth worrying about; the real decisive moment is next Tuesday.
These past few days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I’m actually not too concerned.
The bulls and bears are sweeping back and forth, options expiration is amplifying the game, Maji is reducing positions, JackYi is calling for adding more, the short-term chip turnover looks lively, but the direction hasn’t actually emerged. The real critical point is September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is the first major macro data release of the week.
Last month’s data surged directly to 55.6, showing economic resilience far stronger than market expectations, which immediately knocked down rate cut expectations and put risk assets under pressure. The new data on September 1st will directly influence the market’s judgment on the US economy, inflation, and subsequent Federal Reserve policies — whether the strength continues or begins to decline, pointing to completely different directions.
Moreover, the timing is very tight:
Tuesday kicks off with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed closely by ADP employment data, ISM Services, and then Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Next Tuesday is actually the starting point for the entire macro data week; where the first shot lands will determine the tone of expectations for the following days.
So with BTC holding around $80,000 now, I’m actually not in a hurry.
At the $84,000 level, JackYi says consolidation is normal, Maji is signaling withdrawal with his position — but I think the real direction won’t come from them, it will come from the data next Tuesday.Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to $80,000 but couldn't hold, falling back to around $78,000–$79,000.
It really feels like it's oscillating at a high level. Damn, the script is different every time.
Before, it would slowly rise and probably get a lot of people on board. I still don't really want to move.
There hasn't been any new main theme in the crypto space these past couple of days. There's a bit of heat on BSC, with CZ retweeting, Binance Wallet, AI Agent, on-chain Meme—everything gets a little hype.
But most of this hype has little to do with making money; very few things can sustain it. The Meme ecosystem has also changed now.
Previously, a narrative could hype for weeks; now most don't last a day. Seeing others make tenfold or hundredfold gains feels lively.
If you really jump in, you might just be catching the last wave.
Still the same saying: the first believers always sell to the later believers. Don't treat celebrity interactions, exchange listings, or a few big influencers' retweets as some kind of wealth secret. Hot money moves much faster than ordinary people, and what ordinary people can do in the end is often just provide liquidity. It's better to buy some QQQ or regularly invest in the Nasdaq 100 ETF.On-chain data and K-line indicators show that BTC has most likely bottomed out from the bear market, and ETF funds are also flowing back in.
In the past 30 trading days, the net inflow was about $3.27 billion, with about $2.3 billion net inflow in the last 7 trading days, accounting for approximately 71%. Has Wall Street also started FOMOing the Bitcoin four-year cycle?
However, the single-day inflow on August 26 has clearly declined, indicating a cooling of fund enthusiasm, which corresponds to BTC's price stagnation yesterday.This surge from $55 to $83.5 hit a record high, with a cumulative year-to-date increase exceeding 220%. The most direct trigger was Trump's statement at the White House on August 19 that the CFTC chairman was pushing Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. in full compliance. The news soared 20% that day, and in the following days pushed it above 80. $HYPE But the real value of this stock isn't news, but fundamentals. Hyperliquid is currently the largest on-chain perpetual contract trading platform, with cumulative net income reaching $1.27 billion, and 99% of fees are directly used to buy back and burn HYPE. On August 26, the AQAv2 mechanism was launched, and even the interest generated from over 5 billion USDC deposits accumulated on the platform must be used to buy back. What does this mean? As long as the platform is still making money, HYPE will naturally have a continuous buying force. Multicoin Capital's report directly pushed the 2028 target price to $319, a fourfold increase. The core logic is that the platform's annualized revenue could reach $8 billion, calculated at a 20x valuation multiple. But two things must be watched: first, unlocking—tokens are released every month, so supply pressure will not disappear. Second, whether Trump's verbal support can actually be implemented within the compliance framework, the specific CFTC terms have yet to be released. The fundamentals are indeed solid, having grown from a simple exchange token into an asset with exchange platform token attributes. But no matter how good the East isNVIDIA and HBM
NVIDIA's earnings report last night was very strong.
But if you only focus on revenue beating expectations and the after-hours rise, you might miss an even more tradable signal: AI demand is still accelerating, and Memory has become so expensive that it is starting to affect NVIDIA's own gross margin.
Let's go through the earnings data first
NVIDIA FY2027 Q2:
Total revenue $96.221 billion, +106% year-over-year, +18% quarter-over-quarter, market expectation about $92.17 billion
Data center revenue $89 billion, +117% year-over-year, +18% quarter-over-quarter, market expectation about $85.08 billion
GAAP net income $59.688 billion, +126% year-over-year
GAAP operating income $63.734 billion, +124% year-over-year
GAAP EPS $2.46
Adjusted EPS $2.22, market expectation about $2.10
GAAP / Non-GAAP gross margin both at 75%
Edge Computing revenue $7.2 billion, +27% year-over-year, +13% quarter-over-quarter
Looking at these numbers alone, this is a very clear beat.
More importantly, the next quarter.
NVIDIA's FY2027 Q3 revenue guidance is $108 billion ±2%
The market originally expected about $104.19 billion.
Moreover, NVIDIA specifically stated that this guidance does not assume any data center compute revenue from China.
While data center continues rapid growth, the next-generation Vera Rubin has already started full production, and partners like CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle, Nebius, etc., already have Rubin racks running.
NVIDIA even expects Rubin to contribute about 20% of data center revenue this quarter.
This means the switch from Blackwell to Rubin has not shown the previously feared significant demand gap.
Then there is a very striking data point.
$NVDA NVIDIA unusually provided growth expectations for FY2028 in advance: revenue is expected to grow about 70%.
Before the earnings release, Wall Street's average expectation was only about 44%.
So the first signal from this earnings report is very clear: AI Capex, at least from NVIDIA's orders and customer forecasts, shows no signs of peaking yet.
Now to what I think is the most noteworthy part—Memory.
Here, a very beautiful industry chain logic emerges:
AI models get bigger
↓
AI inference volume increases
↓
GPU and system shipments continue to grow
↓
Rubin begins volume ramp
↓
High-end AI Memory demand continues to rise
↓
Memory supply tightens, prices rise
↓
NVIDIA's procurement costs increase
↓
NVIDIA's gross margin starts to come under pressure
Previously, when judging HBM market conditions, we often had to look for evidence only from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung's own earnings reports.
Now even one of their largest downstream customers has started openly discussing Memory shortage and Memory cost.
This signal is actually more valuable.
The GPU supply chain now involves advanced processes, CoWoS, HBM, PCB, networking, power, liquid cooling, racks, and data center construction, among many other links.
But HBM is clearly at the core of this chain.
In June this year, NVIDIA and SK Hynix announced a multi-year cooperation to jointly develop next-generation AI Memory; in July, they further announced long-term cooperation, explicitly mentioning HBM.
They will also jointly develop and secure advanced memory supply around next-generation platforms like Vera Rubin.
Therefore, this NVIDIA earnings report is important for HBM manufacturers because it simultaneously validates three things.
First, demand remains
Data center +117% year-over-year, Rubin is expected to contribute about 20% of data center revenue this quarter, and FY2028 guidance shows about 70% growth.
The biggest concern for HBM—AI Capex peaking quickly—is not supported by NVIDIA's data.
Second, supply remains tight
NVIDIA's own growth is already constrained by supply of Memory components.
If the entire memory industry had already started oversupply, it would be hard to see the largest AI chipmaker growing rapidly while simultaneously lowering gross margin guidance due to rising Memory costs.
Third, upstream bargaining power remains
NVIDIA has one of the strongest procurement capabilities in the semiconductor supply chain.
When even such a customer has to bear significant Memory price pressure, it is already clear which side holds more power in the upstream supply-demand relationship.
So for the storage sector, this earnings report most directly reflects SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung.
Especially Hynix.
As for $SNDK, it needs separate consideration
SanDisk's core remains NAND and SSD; AI data center construction can certainly drive enterprise SSD demand, but you cannot simply copy the HBM logic fully to NAND just because NVIDIA says Memory is tight.
So to sum up last night's NVIDIA earnings report:
$96.2 billion in revenue tells us AI demand is still strong; $108 billion guidance tells us demand continues to grow; and the declining gross margin tells us upstream Memory has become so expensive that even NVIDIA is starting to feel the pressure.
The market has been waiting for when the HBM cycle will end
At least this earnings report tells us the turning point has not yet appeared $BTC & $ETH: HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?$BTC & $ETH: HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?Bitcoin faces resistance near $80,000, which is the largest cost concentration area. Bitcoin is currently being tested in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. On-chain data shows this is the area with the highest supply concentration, with about 8% of Bitcoin's last movements occurring around here. Specifically, around $80,000 alone holds about 5% of the supply, making it the largest holding cluster across all price levels; $82,000 is also among the top. $78,000 is the second largest concentration area. Simply put: many people's buying costs are at these price points. When the price returns near their cost, some holders tend to sell, creating resistance. The average cost of spot Bitcoin ETF holdings in the United States is also roughly between $80,000 and $82,000, further increasing pressure in this range. Meanwhile, the 50-week moving average is around $81,081, and Bitcoin has been trading below this line since November 2025. Historically, a successful breakout above this long-term moving average has led to sustained upward phases. Therefore, the $80,000 to $82,000 range is not only a key round number but also a critical test zone where cost and moving averages overlap. Whether it can hold above this level will determine the short-term direction after consolidation.
$BTC $BTC & $ETH: HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?Continuing to update babala's MU short position!
This storage waterfall let me profit
$MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX
After I opened a short at 956, MU has dropped from the intraday high of 983.6 all the way down to around 915, with the short position currently floating with over 40 points of profit.
Today's sharp rise and fall was even more severe than I expected.
NVIDIA just released a comprehensive earnings report that exceeded expectations across the board, with very strong revenue, data center business, and forward guidance. The stock rose nearly 8% intraday, and the Nasdaq and the entire semiconductor sector also went up.
Normally, as NVIDIA's HBM supplier, Micron should benefit accordingly.
But MU, after opening high at 967 and peaking at 983.6, not only failed to continue rising but instead broke below the opening price, yesterday's close, and the 930 support, hitting a low near 915. From the intraday high, it has retraced nearly 70 points.
So MU's decline today is not because NVIDIA's earnings were bad; on the contrary, the good news was very strong, yet the stock still couldn't rise.
There are several main reasons behind this.
First, NVIDIA's positive earnings were already priced in.
MU rose nearly 4% pre-market, with many funds entering early based on the logic of "NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations, storage continues to benefit." After the official open, the positive news actually provided liquidity for profit-taking.
Well-known good news often is not a new buying opportunity.
Second, the 980–1000 range has always been MU's most obvious resistance zone.
Previous rebounds failed near 980, and after the local high of 1036, MU's rebound highs have been declining. Today, even with the boost from NVIDIA's earnings to 983.6, it still couldn't break through the resistance zone, technically forming a clear false breakout and a sharp pullback.
Third, storage stocks are clearly weaker than the overall semiconductor sector today.
NVIDIA rose nearly 8%, semiconductor ETFs rose about 1.4%, but MU fell over 2%, and SanDisk also dropped nearly 2%.
This indicates that today's decline is not a broad chip sector sell-off but a targeted profit-taking in the storage sector. Some funds are exiting from the previously high-flying Micron and SanDisk, shifting to NVIDIA, software, and other AI-related beneficiaries.
Fourth, the market is starting to reassess "how much profit storage price increases can actually bring to Micron."
DRAM, NAND, and HBM price increases are definitely positive for Micron in the long term, but some long-term supply contracts were signed before this price surge, so Micron may not immediately capture the full spot price gains. Meanwhile, competition expectations from Chinese storage manufacturers going public and expanding production make funds reluctant to blindly push valuations higher.
Fifth, after breaking 938 and 930 support consecutively, stop-loss orders began to trigger in concentration.
MU first broke below yesterday's close at 938, then pierced the 930 support. Funds that bought at these levels were forced to stop loss, and quantitative and trend funds followed with selling, ultimately pushing the price quickly down to around 915.
I haven't seen any sudden company-level hard negative news today that could independently explain this sharp drop.
So a more reasonable judgment is: profit-taking on good news, failure at 980 resistance, storage sector profit-taking, plus stop-loss cascades after breaking 930, together caused today's decline.
Key price levels to watch next:
✔ 915–910: current first support
✔ Break below 910: look for 900 and 888
✔ If 888 breaks again: look down to 870–850
✔ Rebound back above 924–930: the decline speed may slow
✔ 945–956: now a strong resistance zone
Now that the price is near 915, I will not continue to chase shorts or add positions. Planning to take partial profits between 910–900, keep the remaining position targeting 888 and 850, and move the protective stop-loss down to prevent the 40-point floating profit from turning into a loss again.
Strong good news is not scary.
The real danger is when all the good news has arrived, but the price still can't rise.
Before, babala could only make money by shorting; now it seems shorting MU is truly a professional fit!$BTC & $ETH: HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?#Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURR
The boss has something to say
Revolut's euro stablecoin EURR has officially launched.
Issued on August 20, confirmed to start opening to some users in Denmark, Poland, and Portugal on August 26. It runs on Ethereum and Polygon, redeemable at 1 euro. The issuer is Bridge Building under Stripe, with Revolut responsible for distribution and integration.
The reserve page initially shows a circulation and cash reserve of 374 euros. This is test data, not real volume, but it also indicates there is still a lot of room for the product to form market liquidity.
What is the significance of this?
The European stablecoin market has never really taken off. USDC has EURC, and there are some euro stablecoins on the market, but their scale is not even close to that of dollar stablecoins. Without sufficiently large application scenarios to support it, euro stablecoin holders just hold them without much use.
Revolut's entry angle is different. It has over 80 million retail users and 16 million crypto users. This is one of Europe's largest crypto gateways, and its distribution capability is incomparable to pure stablecoin projects. If stablecoins are embedded into transfer, payment, and consumption scenarios, holders become users.
But the core issue remains. Whether the liquidity depth of euro stablecoins can be built depends on whether enough people truly use them for trading, payment, and settlement. If it's just a dollar stablecoin with a different shell, then essentially it's still USDC and USDT's domain.
Impact on the crypto market
The launch of EURR itself won't directly drive prices up, but it represents a trend. The stablecoin market is moving from a dollar monopoly to multi-currency competition. Europe, unlike the US, has a clearer regulatory framework, and the banking system tends to hold the line rather than embrace innovation. But institutions of Revolut's scale entering the market will make more people start to take euro stablecoin demand seriously. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, today's rhythm is smooth. Bitcoin rose from over 78,500 to 80,000, Ethereum from 2,480 to 2,520, and I also entered a short at 2,540. Tomorrow there are PCE and Walsh speeches; holding heavy positions waiting for directional confirmation, no rush to bet heavily.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 27)
The direction gradually shifted from long dominance to short takeover, but the total amount is only $13,400, indicating extremely low liquidity and ineffective market movement...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $1,954.50 $1,954.50 $0
4 hours $1,954.50 $1,954.50 $0
12 hours $6,052.04 $3,952.86 $2,099.18
24 hours $13,400 $5,372.41 $8,074.61
From 1 to 4 hours, longs dominated (shorts at 0), with a scale of $2,000, a tentative control; at 12 hours, shorts reversed at 1.88 times, surging to $2,100; at 24 hours, shorts expanded to 1.5 times, liquidations at $8,074.61 versus longs at $5,372.41, totaling $13,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 45.2% of the 24-hour total, with moderate concentration. The short multiple fell from 1.88 to 1.5, indicating marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum, combined with the total daily volume of only $13,400, representing extremely low liquidity and ineffective market movement, providing no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power leader's report card, and Bitcoin oscillating at high levels amid multiple catalysts—three forces converging in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: The key debut of Chair Wash at Jackson Hole
The US July Core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure showed near zero month-on-month growth, indicating a clear weakening in consumption momentum.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash's diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts, or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal fractures becoming public, Wash's speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings beat: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and "burning money" is continuously turning into "making money."
₿ BTC surge and pullback: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin briefly broke above $81,000 this week but then pulled back to oscillate near $78,000. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF inflows—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test comes Friday: Deribit will see about 81,700 Bitcoin options expire, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the biggest pain point at $68,000. Combined with Wash's speech as a chain catalyst, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September rate hikes; Nvidia's $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin pulled back after briefly testing $80,000, with $6.4 billion options expiry amplifying the key level battle. CORE contract liquidation totaled only $13,400 for the day, representing extremely low liquidity and ineffective market movement, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. As inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market awaits Wash's direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC & $ETH: HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?$BTC & $ETH: A FAMILIAR PATTERN, BUT A DIFFERENT MARKET
Past cycles showed that sharp BTC rallies could be followed by deeper pullbacks before a clear trend formed. ETH often moved in a similar rhythm.
This time, $BTC has cooled from above $81K toward the $78K–$80K area, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. The major difference is stronger institutional participation, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $1.9B during the week ending Aug. 21.