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Market Brief: PCE Data Released, Focus Shifts to Jackson Hole Speech
Market Overview
Core PCE data remained flat; market views consider it not a substantial positive, inflation remains high, and conditions for a rapid Fed rate cut are not yet met.
The key variable in the market is Wash's Jackson Hole speech:
- Hawkish tone: USD and US Treasury yields strengthen, BTC and ETH face short-term pressure.
- Signals of economic weakening and room for rate cuts: crypto market may see a rally.
The market is expected to experience a volatile pattern with spikes and retracements, either rising then falling or falling then shaking out. BTC shows stronger resistance to declines, while ETH and altcoins will have greater volatility.
Practical View: Do not chase longs solely based on PCE data; the data is just a setup, wait for the speech to land for the main direction. Focus on BTC support levels, watch ETH strength or weakness, and avoid aggressive positions in altcoins. The macro environment has not fully shifted to easing; light positions and cautious play are safer than confidently guessing direction.
Market Logic
Inflation stickiness remains; a single inflation data point is insufficient to change the Fed's stance. On the eve of major speeches, market funds tend to oscillate, with spikes repeatedly harvesting both longs and shorts, leading to differentiated risk resilience among different coins.
Trading Insight
During important macro event windows, avoid heavy one-sided bets in advance. Event-driven market changes are highly uncertain; respond with light positions and wait for signals to materialize before making decisions. 📊 $BCH Contract Liquidation Express (August 28)
Shorts went from extreme crushing to complete exhaustion, with longs reversing in 24 hours by a very slight 1.1x advantage. Total liquidations exceeded $340,000, with a concentration of only 58.4%, showing a cliff-like exhaustion plus a V-shaped reversal trajectory...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4,954.53 $18.85 $4,935.68
4 hours $59,600 $731.68 $58,900
12 hours $201,300 $128,600 $72,700
24 hours $344,400 $164,100 $180,300
In 1 hour, shorts dominated with an extreme 262x crushing control, volume at $4,900; in 4 hours, short multiple surged to 80x, volume soared to $58,900; in 12 hours, shorts collapsed to 1.77x, volume rose to $72,700; in 24 hours, longs reversed with a slight 1.1x advantage, liquidations $164,100 vs shorts $180,300, totaling $344,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 58.4% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. The short multiple fell from 262x to a slight 1.1x reversal by longs, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted, direction completed a long-short flip. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; although direction turned long, the strength is very weak, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 28
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power king's report card, Bitcoin oscillating at high levels before multiple catalysts—all three forces converge in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: Wash’s Jackson Hole debut is key
US July Core PCE price index year-on-year at 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure month-on-month near zero growth, consumption momentum clearly weakened.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash’s diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts, or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal fractures becoming public, Wash’s speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings beat: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, exceeding market expectation of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and the "burning money" is continuing to convert into "making money."
₿ BTC surged then pulled back: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin briefly broke $81,000 this Monday but then retreated to oscillate near $78,000. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test is Friday: Deribit will have about 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the maximum pain point at $68,000. Combined with Wash’s speech chain catalysts, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash’s Jackson Hole speech will be the key wind vane for September rate hikes; Nvidia’s $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin pulled back after briefly testing $80,000, and the $6.4 billion options expiry will amplify the key level battle. BCH contract shorts collapsed from an extreme 262x to a slight 1.1x reversal by longs, with total liquidations of $340,000 and 58.4% concentration, completing a long-short flip but with very weak strength. When inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market is waiting for Wash to give direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The long-established privacy coin Zcash has recently experienced a sudden surge, with the core trigger being Grayscale's official submission of a ZEC spot ETF application to the SEC. Many people wonder, since privacy coins have always been treated as a thorn in the side by regulators worldwide, why would top Wall Street asset managers push it in a compliant market?
The answer actually lies in the real pain points faced by traditional institutions entering the market. On fully transparent public blockchains, every transfer by whales and multinational corporations, every change in holdings, and even commercial secrets along the supply chain are all scrutinized worldwide under a magnifying glass on-chain. For institutions managing tens of billions in assets, this completely exposed state is extremely dangerous in practical business operations.
What makes Zcash attractive to Grayscale is its optional privacy mechanism. Through the Viewing Key feature, enterprises can hide specific transfer amounts and transaction counterparts on-chain, while still being able to unilaterally disclose complete audit records to regulators and tax authorities when needed. This design, which both protects business privacy and satisfies compliance audits, hits the critical point for traditional large capital.
Privacy has never been the exclusive domain of illicit industries; it is a fundamental baseline need in the business world. As traditional institutions accelerate asset tokenization, public chain assets that combine privacy protection with compliance auditing are undergoing a profound value reassessment.
In an environment where on-chain holdings are completely exposed, do you think mainstream institutions will increasingly shift on a larger scale toward optional privacy public chains like Zcash in the future? #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Recently, gold ETFs have continuously attracted large inflows, with risk-averse funds massively flowing into traditional gold assets. This signal should not be simply interpreted as "bullish for crypto" or "bearish for crypto"; BTC and ETH will show divergent reactions.
$BTC carries the narrative of digital gold and shares a logic with gold in countering dollar depreciation and debt risks. When the dollar weakens and U.S. debt risks rise, institutions treat gold and BTC as scarce stores of value to allocate. Massive inflows into gold ETFs often drive a rebound in Bitcoin ETF funds, boosting BTC sentiment.
However, two scenarios must be distinguished:
If buying gold is driven by inflation and concerns over dollar credit: this is a depreciation trade, and BTC is likely to strengthen in sync, with both rising together.
If it is extreme panic and stock market crash-style risk aversion: institutions prioritize gold and may sell off high-volatility risk assets like BTC; gold rises while BTC is drained and weakens.
$ETH is in a more awkward position, as its "digital gold" attribute is weak and it leans more toward a growth risk asset.
The frenzy of gold ETF inflows represents rising market risk aversion and shrinking risk appetite.
In the macro risk aversion wave, institutions prioritize allocating gold and BTC, while ETH often becomes a supporting player. Only when BTC stabilizes and strengthens, and market risk appetite recovers, will incremental funds rotate into ETH, leading to a catch-up rally. While Strategy holds over 840,000 BTC, it also retains a large amount of cash. Combined with Saylor's initiative to integrate Bitcoin into the mainstream financial system, the premium logic of $MSTR has shifted from a single-minded bullish stance to a fierce game of defensive choices and leverage clearing.
Current market facts indicate that the market is repricing the most aggressive buyer strategy. The previous linear assumption of relying on bond issuance or equity issuance to go all-in on BTC shows discrepancies. Retaining cash means management is either guarding against liquidity risks at high levels or waiting for a more cost-effective allocation window.
In terms of driving factors, first is the marginal volatility of BTC's high price squeezing MSTR's premium rate; second is the corporate cash flow option disturbing market bullish sentiment; and lastly, the long-term valuation reshaping brought by institutional custody and credit system implementation.
The trigger for the bullish scenario is BTC breaking through the upward range and maintaining high turnover, driving institutional funds to accelerate inflows into risk assets. At this time, retained cash can serve as reserve funds for subsequent leverage additions. The observation variable is whether MSTR's premium rate can return to high levels; the invalidation signal is BTC breaking key support with volume.
The trigger for the consolidation scenario is BTC's narrow range consolidation at high levels. At this time, MSTR's leverage amplifier attribute fails, and the previously accumulated sentiment premium is gradually digested by time cost. The observation variable is whether the company's cash reserves continue to be placed on the sidelines; the invalidation signal is a large-scale re-entry buying.
The trigger for the bearish scenario is a phase of deep correction in BTC. The previously amplified return attribute of MSTR will quickly turn into a severe squeeze of valuation premium. Although retained cash provides a buffer, it is difficult to resist secondary liquidation pressure. The observation variables are debt maturity and liquidity indicators; the invalidation signal is BTC quickly recovering lost ground.
The golden standard for judging invalidation is whether Strategy will consume all cash reserves again in the short term to arbitrage buy BTC. If this behavior occurs again, the market will return to the traditional pricing framework of extreme reckless leverage.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the trend of MSTR's premium rate relative to BTC and the retention ratio trend of cash assets on the balance sheet.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 After PURR's financial report came out, I suddenly started to understand why everyone has been focusing on HYPE recently.
At first, I thought it was just another financial report, but after reading it, hey? It seems it's not about how much money PURR itself made, but about how HYPE is slowly gaining its own "listing leverage."
1. Let's look at the hardest facts first.
PURR now holds about 29.3 million HYPE tokens, worth approximately $1.9 billion at the end of June, and the company has no debt. Most of the HYPE is still staked to earn yields.
This balance sheet, honestly, is a bit exaggerated.
2. But here we must stay calm.
The $30.55 million net profit cannot be directly understood as "PURR truly earned $30.55 million in one year."
A significant portion comes from unrealized gains on HYPE holdings; the actual income from staking and validator commissions is only about $9.5 million.
So this income statement is quite interesting:
When HYPE rises, PURR's income statement immediately looks very good; if HYPE falls back, the profits will be very honest.
This is very typical in crypto.
3. What really started to interest me is the cycle behind it.
Hyperliquid generates fees → HYPE buybacks → HYPE value increases → PURR's net asset value rises → PURR's financing ability strengthens → continues buying HYPE.
If this flywheel really keeps spinning, PURR will no longer be just a "company holding HYPE."
It starts to look like an entry point that packages HYPE's price performance into the stock market.
4. So what the funds are really speculating on now might not be PURR itself.
But the "stock-ification of HYPE."
HYPE itself doesn't have the traditional stock valuation framework, but PURR does.
So an interesting thing emerges: if more people become optimistic about HYPE, they are willing to give PURR a higher valuation; the higher PURR's valuation, the stronger its financing and buying power; the more it buys, the more it reinforces HYPE's asset story.
Sounds familiar?
Yes, funds love this kind of "telling stories to themselves, and the story can keep going" structure.
5. But I actually think the most important thing to watch here is not the price rise, but the crowding.
PURR's mNAV has returned to about 1.35x, the stock price has risen continuously recently, and community sentiment is clearly bullish.
The most dangerous thing now is not that some people are bullish.
But that everyone suddenly becomes bullish, and each person can find a logic to justify their bullishness.
So the real question now is not:
"Is PURR a good company?"
But:
How much premium is the market willing to pay for this HYPE balance sheet?
If HYPE keeps going up, this cycle will look more and more beautiful.
But if one day HYPE starts to turn down, PURR's net asset value, valuation premium, and financing ability may start to affect each other negatively.
The flywheel will still be the same flywheel, but the direction might not be so pleasant.
So my biggest takeaway from this financial report is:
PURR may be becoming the most interesting "stock-ification entry" for HYPE, but the more beautiful the flywheel, the more we need to watch what happens when it stops.
After all, crypto is really magical.
Earlier, everyone was studying fundamentals, and after all the research, everyone's conclusion surprisingly became:
"Buy."
...At this point, I would rather take a quick look at where the exit is.
$HYPE #波动雷达：币种异动观察 Yesterday's ETF data came out,
BTC inflow was $232 million,
ETH inflow was $192 million.
ETH accounts for 18.8% of BTC's total market cap,
making up 82.9% of BTC's inflow funds.
The continuous ETF capital inflow
not only allows the coin price to consolidate at high levels after a big surge,
but even the lows keep rising.
Therefore, this rally is not over yet,
there is a faint momentum for another short squeeze.
As I mentioned in my previous operation records,
my default position (when not shorting)
is fully invested in ETH spot, bullish and waiting for a rise.
If the upward momentum weakens later,
I will try to sell 50%~100% of my spot position to short :)USDT and USDC circulating supply data: In August 2026, the two major stablecoins returned to net growth, increasing by about $1.7 billion in a single month, ending three consecutive months of net contraction. From May to July, circulation decreased by about $2.6 billion, $6 billion, and $2.2 billion, respectively. Historical data shows that when major stablecoins exceed $10 billion in monthly increases, it usually corresponds to strong liquidity expansion. In 2021 and at the end of 2024, monthly increases exceeded $18 billion, and during the 2025 bull market, the increase was repeatedly between $8 billion and $12 billion. In contrast, the current increment of about $1.7 billion remains relatively low; During the same period, BTC rebounded from about $60,000 to around $80,000, but stablecoin growth has not yet returned to previous upward cycle levels. Currently, it is closer to an initial recovery after liquidity stabilizes, rather than a new round of large-scale capital expansionAcross the entire market (aggregated from 32 monitored venues), the single-day trading volume of SanDisk (SNDK) stock perpetual contracts reached $16.291 billion, while on the same day, SNDK's spot US stock turnover was about $26.1 billion (16.28 million shares traded, with an average price of about $1,603), a ratio of 62.4%, the highest level ever recorded. Data shows this ratio remained high for three consecutive days in mid to late August: 42.0% on August 17 (13.401 billion vs $31.94 billion), 52.6% on August 18 (16.191 billion vs $30.78 billion), and 62.4% on August 19. On August 26, it fell back to 38.0% (4.98 billion USD vs $13.1 billion). In a horizontal comparison, SNDK was the most prominent equity perpetual asset with this ratio, followed by CRCL (47.2% on August 5), SOXL (38.1% on August 6), MSTR (20.0%), and MU (14.6%). Both NVIDIA (NVDA) and Meta were below 3%$MSTR
I now actually feel that the most worth watching about MSTR is not whether it will rise or not.
But that Saylor has surprisingly started to leave himself a fallback this time.
A person who in the past took "buying BTC" to the extreme, now holds more than 840,000 BTC.
According to the old script, when BTC gets strong, everyone's first reaction is:
MSTR keeps charging, Saylor keeps buying.
But this time it's different.
Strategy didn't throw all the money blindly into BTC, but instead kept a large amount of cash first.
This is interesting.
Because if even the most daring BTC gambler in the entire market starts to value cash and options,
then retail investors still mindlessly chasing MSTR here, are they really betting on the trend or just on emotions?
I'm not saying MSTR can't rise.
As long as BTC keeps going up, MSTR could still go crazier than BTC.
But the problem is:
When BTC rises, it can amplify gains.
When BTC consolidates, it also amplifies disappointment.
So now when I look at MSTR, what I most want to know is no longer "how much more can it rise."
But rather:
Why is Saylor specifically at this moment starting to leave himself an exit?
Sometimes what’s most worth noting in the market is not whether someone still dares to buy.
But that the craziest person suddenly isn’t so crazy anymore.
$MSTR $BTC There is a clear divergence within institutions; do not treat institutions as a unified bullish force.
A recent 13F holdings disclosure reveals a very interesting institutional split: some macro hedge funds are reducing their BTC-ETF spot holdings while simultaneously making large purchases of call options for flexible positioning; meanwhile, some long-term allocation institutions continue to increase their spot holdings, barely touching derivatives.
In simple terms, institutions have split into two types: one uses spot holdings as a base, believing in the long-term logic; the other dares not heavily hold spot and uses options to speculate on short-term trends.
In terms of the market, $BTC has spot capital support, so even with pullbacks, the downside is limited by spot buying; $ETH institutional holdings are more from options and ETF short-term funds, with spot accumulation much smaller than BTC.
Many people have the misconception that any ETF inflow means the market will keep rising. The reality is that many institutions now have a "light spot + options speculation" structure, which can easily lead to quick profit-taking after a big rally.
During this intensive macro data window, such institutional divergence will amplify intraday spikes, and futures trading cannot blindly rely on ETF net inflows to go long.The real variable this week isn't on the K-line, but at Jackson Hole. Fed officials are still hawkish today—"policy needs to remain tight," "year-end inflation still around 3%"—clearly not in a hurry to ease. Meanwhile, $BTC is pushed back above 80,000 by Nvidia's earnings sentiment: liquidity hasn't loosened, but the price is already pumping, this kind of divergence is the easiest to deceive. My principle is never to go full position during event weeks, keeping enough ammo to wait for the bootsOverall market characteristics this round: **Low liquidity squeeze in the Asia-Europe session → Macro tightening at US stock market open + concentrated institutional profit-taking → Market-wide volume pullback**, with extremely clear strength differentiation among popular coins.
**BTC (the market anchor)**: Volume surge pushing to the key resistance at 80,000, with short-term profit-taking concentrated on ETFs. This is a macro-driven market, with steady gains and controllable pullbacks, serving as the market base. No extreme spikes, but dense high-level chips make short-term sustained one-sided acceleration difficult.
**ETH (strong mainstream)**: Gains this round exceed BTC, with 2550 as a super chip resistance zone, accumulating a large amount of historical break-even positions. DeFi funds flow in and out very quickly, causing ETH’s pullback to be sharper than BTC’s, making it a **more elastic and volatile** mainstream coin.
**SOL (leading altcoin)**: Highest heat and trading volume across the network, a high Beta benchmark. Rises rely on ecosystem traffic + MEME hype + ETF expectations; falls suffer the heaviest leveraged liquidations, making it a typical **fastest rising, hardest falling** leading altcoin.
**ENA (strongest stable Alpha)**: The strongest altcoin this round, backed by real USDe stablecoin yields and institutional funds. Sustained heat and healthy turnover; relatively resistant during market dives, currently the **fundamentally strongest and most capital-recognized** narrative coin.
**ZEC (short-term theme king)**: Violently surged on Grayscale ETF rumors, with short-term explosive volume. Pure speculative hype with no realized benefits; funds cash out very quickly, representing a **news-driven, spike-then-drop** pulse market.
**TRUMP (pure sentiment MEME)**: Entirely driven by political narrative hype, no fundamentals. Heat is surging; when heat fades, liquidity dries up immediately. Exhibits the largest volatility network-wide, purely sentiment-driven speculation.
**CHIP, CAP (AI small caps)**: Highly concentrated chips and extremely poor liquidity. Small funds can violently pump; no support when the market weakens, classified as **high-risk short-term themes**.
**Overall strength ranking**: ENA > BTC > ETH > ZEC > SOL > TRUMP > CHIP/CAP
**Core rule**: Those with real fundamentals resist declines; pure sentiment and pure themes all loosen with volume expansion.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 🔥 $BTC vs $ETH: Market dominance is quietly shifting 👀
$BTC remains the core asset most watched by institutional funds, currently fluctuating around $80K. The latest data shows that the spot BTC ETF has recorded net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, about $232M in a single day, with institutional buying still resilient.
But $ETH's performance is also worth attention.
In the latest data round, the spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $192M, very close to BTC's fund scale, indicating that market risk appetite for ETH is clearly heating up.
📌 My understanding:
$BTC → continues to confirm the major trend
$ETH → is testing the market's capacity to absorb higher-risk assets
If BTC can continue to hold steady in the $79K–$80K range, and ETH remains relatively strong, then the main players in the upcoming market cycle may gradually spread from BTC to ETH, and even further to high-beta assets like $SOL and $DOGE.
What’s truly worth watching now is not just "who gains more," but where the funds are actually migrating. 👀
$BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE# Complete Analysis of Recent Popular Market Coins
>
## I. Market Benchmarks (BTC, ETH)
1. **BTC**
- Popularity: Anchored across the entire market, spot ETFs continuously see capital inflows and outflows; 80,000 is a core resistance zone.
- Trading Volume: During the rally phase, spot + derivatives reach $60-70 billion; volume surged with sharp declines during the US stock plunge; ETF flows shifted from inflows to slight outflows (Sina Finance).
- Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, favorable US crypto regulatory bills, large-scale short covering forcing a squeeze; low liquidity in Asian-European sessions pierced 80,000, with institutional profit-taking and pullback at US market open.
- Risks: Large accumulation of break-even and profit-taking chips in the 80,000-82,000 range; without new spot capital, repeated rallies and pullbacks are likely.
2. **ETH**
- Popularity: Core indicator of DeFi and Layer2 ecosystem altcoins.
- Trading Volume: Near 2550 during the rally, 24h turnover of $3.2-3.6 billion; volume expands on pullbacks, derivatives open interest quickly declines.
- Drivers: DeFi ecosystem TVL recovery, staking yield narrative; **2400-2550 range holds large historical trapped chips, with break-even selling pressure far exceeding BTC**, resulting in higher pullback elasticity.
- Risks: When the market weakens, DeFi funds collectively flee, often underperforming BTC on drawdowns.
## II. Narrative Alpha Coins (Real Business / Catalysts, Key Capital Targets)
### SOL (Solana)
- Popularity: Leading altcoin, main incubator for MEME coins, core target this alt season.
- Trading Volume: 24h turnover of $1.1-1.7 billion, second only to ETH in altcoin activity, high leverage positions.
- Drivers: Token deflation governance proposal expectations, ecosystem DEX and MEME coin minting tool traffic explosion; also supported by SOL-ETF expectations.
- Risks: High Beta characteristic, strong stampede during market crashes; large MEME coin capital flows in and out of the ecosystem, amplifying volatility.
### ENA (Ethena)
- Popularity: Leading DeFi stablecoin track, publicly bullish by institutional whales, one of the strongest altcoins this round (Sina Finance).
- Trading Volume: $200-260 million / 24h, volume steadily expands during uptrends.
- Drivers: Rapid expansion of USDe stablecoin scale, treasury yield model brings real protocol revenue, large financing catalysts; Robinhood on-chain TVL explosive growth.
- Risks: Large token unlock pressure with cycle extended to 2028; cannot remain unaffected during systemic market downturns.
### ZEC (Zcash)
- Popularity: Absolute hotspot in privacy coin track, Grayscale submitted ETF amendment documents, short-term topic heat maximized.
- Trading Volume: $600-800 million / 24h, volume significantly expands during positive news phases.
- Drivers: Privacy vs. regulatory narrative, halving deflation, ZEC-ETF filing expectations, whale and institutional capital positioning.
- Risks: ETF is only a filing, far from launch; expectation-driven trading with huge selling pressure after positive news realization; privacy coins face regulatory uncertainty.
## III. Sentiment MEME Coins (Pure Narrative Driven, Extremely High Turnover)
### TRUMP
- Popularity: Political narrative MEME, popularity fluctuates wildly with US crypto policy rumors.
- Trading Volume: At sentiment peaks, 24h turnover around $300 million; liquidity rapidly shrinks as hype fades.
- Drivers: Trump campaign + crypto-friendly policy rumor speculation, no underlying business value.
- Risks: Whales and project teams cash out at highs; after rumors are disproven, large pullbacks occur and liquidity dries up easily.
## IV. Small Cap Thematic Coins (CHIP, CAP)
- Popularity: On-chain AI and computing power narrative hotspots, short-term hype in the community.
- Trading Volume: Overall low turnover, thin liquidity, pulse-like price action.
- Drivers: AI+Crypto thematic trend, highly concentrated chips, small capital can pump prices.
- Risks: Highest liquidity risk; lack of support during market pullbacks, fast declines, prone to sharp spikes.
## Market Commonalities Summary
1. **Uptrend Commonality**: Weak liquidity in Asian-European sessions, relying on short covering and thematic narratives to complete pulse rallies; rotation order: BTC leads → capital sinks to ETH/SOL → then rotates to ENA/ZEC and other Alphas → finally small coins and MEME frenzy.
2. **Downtrend Commonality**: US stock market open institutional rebalancing window, US Treasury yield rebound, risk appetite contraction; profit-taking and break-even chips concentrated release, chained leverage liquidations.
3. **Layered Characteristics**
- BTC/ETH: Base assets, controllable volatility;
- SOL/ENA/ZEC: Narrative catalysts, high elasticity, substantial positives but easy to realize gains;
- TRUMP: Pure sentiment MEME, playing news;
- CHIP/CAP: Small cap thematic, playing hype, highest risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The real variable this week isn't on the K-line, but at Jackson Hole. Fed officials are still hawkish today—"policy needs to remain tight," "year-end inflation still around 3%"—clearly not in a hurry to ease. Meanwhile, $BTC is pushed back above 80,000 by Nvidia's earnings sentiment: liquidity hasn't loosened, but the price is already pumping, this kind of divergence is the easiest to deceive. My principle is never to go full position during event weeks, keeping enough ammo to wait for the boots to drop. Instead of betting on direction, better to bet on whether you can withstand the volatility. This week, are you fully invested or leaving room?$ENA $CRM
ENA:
0.16836, 24h +22.22%. Pushed from around 0.144 to 0.17197 within 15 minutes, then returned near 0.168 after volume expansion. Funding rate -0.0113%, OI about $16.94 million, shorts are still paying fees. The market looks more like a volume breakout combined with a short squeeze, not necessarily due to sudden new project news. Only consider continuation if it holds above 0.172; if it falls below 0.157, lower expectations. Ethena creates synthetic USD USDe, using collateral assets combined with futures hedging; ENA is the governance token. No confirmed recent catalysts; watch USDe usage and collateral scale; risks lie in crowding after funding turns positive, as well as hedging and custody chains.
CRM:
249.65, 24h +22.31%, touched 250.10. Raised from around 225 within 15 minutes, in the last two hours moved from 243.51 to 249.65; funding rate -0.0060%, OI about $630,000, more like short covering followed by high-level support. CRM on OKX tracks Salesforce stock perpetuals, not an on-chain token. Salesforce disclosed FY27 Q2 revenue of $11.3 billion on August 26, +11% YoY, and raised full-year guidance; this is a factual event in the same window, not necessarily the sole driver. Next, watch if 250 can hold as support; risks include independent order book divergence and earnings guidance falling short of expectations.
#ENA #CRM #SyntheticUSD #StockPerpetualBTC: Stop just focusing on $56K, the market structure has changed
Many are still waiting around $56K, but after BTC previously dropped below $57K, it was quickly supported by funds and did not continue to break down key structures. On the contrary, the market repeatedly digested selling pressure above $62K, then rebounded all the way to around $79K–$81K.
So now, using the mindset of “$56K must return” to view the market, I think is a bit outdated.
The latest data is also worth noting: the US spot BTC ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows, with a single week in August reaching about $1.9B net inflow; meanwhile, core PCE in July remained at 3.3%, and market expectations for the Fed’s policy path have reignited.
There are two important upcoming variables: the Jackson Hole meeting, and the BTC options expiration around $6.4B on August 28. Short-term volatility may significantly increase.
I won’t set a fixed target for the market.
If BTC continues to break upward, I’m more focused on the $84K–$87K resistance area, at which point I will consider whether there is an opportunity to hedge shorts.
The most important thing now is not to guess the lowest point, but to reassess the structure.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #BTC #BitI noticed a small change in the DOGE ETF today. This is not a new application, and it does not mean approval is around the corner. 21Shares’ DOGE ETF has simply started using a new pricing benchmark. Honestly, news like this may have little to no impact on DOGE’s price. But it highlights an important point: “ETF has new news” ≠ “$DOGE has major bullish news.” Sometimes the change is simply related to the fund’s internal rules or backend structure. So whenever you see DOGE + ETF in the same head$HYPE Price Analysis Early August 28: $84.80 Hits New All-Time High, $92 Becomes Next Target
In the early hours of August 28, Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its strong upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of $84.80, setting a new all-time high again. As of 1:30 AM, HYPE was priced at $85.467, up 3.87% in 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $80.014 to $86.176. Over the past week, HYPE has surged 35%, with its market cap approaching $19 billion, ranking it among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
The AQAv2 buyback mechanism is the strongest core logic behind this rally. On August 26, Hyperliquid officially activated the AQAv2 framework, allocating about 90% of the adjusted returns generated from $6.74 billion USDC deposits (after fees) to HYPE buybacks. Based on a 3% yield estimate, the annual new buyback funds amount to approximately $182 million, representing an 18% increase over the current daily income of about $2.76 million. The first settlement is scheduled for October 3.
Regulatory expectations also provide significant momentum. The Trump administration previously indicated that Hyperliquid might soon launch in the U.S., and the CFTC is exploring compliance pathways. The U.S. spot HYPE ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed company Hyperliquid Strategies reported raising $647 million in equity capital, doubling HYPE treasury holdings to 29.3 million tokens (worth about $1.9 billion), with the company carrying no debt.
From a technical perspective, after breaking above the previous high of $77 last week, that level has turned into support. The daily RSI is between 74 and 77, indicating an overbought zone. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at $92.37 is viewed by analysts as the next target, offering about 10% upside from the current price. A stronger mid-term target points to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $111.93. Since August 19, the daily Supertrend indicator has remained bullish, staying valid as long as HYPE holds above $68.
The biggest short-term risk is the token unlock on August 29—14.18 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked tomorrow, valued at about $1.2 billion at current prices, accounting for 1.4% of the maximum supply and 2.7% of the current market cap. Insiders/early contributors hold 46.6% of this (about $550 million). Unlocking does not equal immediate selling—historically, May unlocks led to declines, June to sideways movement, and July to drops, but short-term supply pressure uncertainty cannot be ignored.
Key levels: Resistance above lies at $83.5–$84.5 (all-time high + 1.272 Fibonacci extension); a successful breakout could see $90, $92–$97, and $100 sequentially. Support below is at $79.5–$80.5 (lower bound of current consolidation), $76–$77 (previous high retest zone), and $68 (daily Supertrend bull/bear boundary).
Summary: HYPE set a new all-time high of $84.80 early this morning, with the AQAv2 buyback mechanism and regulatory expectations providing solid fundamental support. $92 is the short-term technical target. However, the $1.2 billion token unlock tomorrow is the most immediate major variable—if absorbed smoothly, the $90–$100 range could open; if it triggers concentrated selling, the $76–$77 retest will be the first test. Investors are advised to strictly control positions and closely monitor market reactions post-unlock.Also in this rebound, $ETH has always found itself in an awkward position: as the industry's largest smart contract infrastructure, with continuous ecosystem iteration, continuous Layer 2 expansion, and high staking scale, its fundamentals are not bad, but its performance has long been weaker than BTC, mostly following market overflow heat and rarely leading independent main rallies. Many people simply attribute ETF inflows to less than Bitcoin, but the real root lies in four structural contradictions: valuation logic, chip burden, ecosystem value capture, and external competition. From an asset positioning perspective, Bitcoin focuses on value storage, with institutional allocation logic simple and clear; Ethereum is a programmable blockchain settlement layer, its value is tied to on-chain economic activity, making valuation logic more complex. Even if spot ETFs are successfully launched, institutions will be more cautious about ETH. BTC is regarded as a digital alternative asset allocation; Besides its asset attributes, ETH also faces regulatory controversy over its securities status. Coupled with the inability of most early ETFs to provide staking yields, this directly reduces the willingness of traditional large funds to allocate funds, resulting in ETF capital volumes long lagging significantly behind Bitcoin. It's not that institutions are pessimistic about Ethereum, but rather that buying decisions are more concerning, and the pace of incremental funds entering the market is naturally slower. The heavy historical holding on to chips is a real shackle that cannot be ignored to suppress ETH's rise. The previous bull market peak accumulated massive holdings, with many participants' costs concentrated in the high range. Whenever prices rebound near these cost levels, a large number of selling positions waiting to break even will followDid nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me 🤣. During the intraday dip, $ENA retraced to a key level and held steady. I found the support below interesting, so I went long directly, entering at 0.16224. At that time, not many dared to move; I thought the loss wouldn't be too much at this position, so I held on. Now at 0.17123, +274.9%, those on board should be waking up laughing. Don't lose patience grinding in the consolidation, then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. Take 75% off the table first, move the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 25%, and let the profits run if it continues to rise. The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero. Now is not the time to rush or chase highs; wait for the next move and a new structure to emerge before deciding. August 28 Early Morning $SNDK Trend Analysis: $1,477 "Panic Selling" Amid Triple Negative Factors Resonating in the Storage Chip Crisis
In the early morning of August 28, SanDisk (SNDK) continued its sharp decline in after-hours trading. As of 1:21 AM, SNDK was quoted at $1,477.71, down 4.88% in 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $1,458.16 to $1,585.87. Previously, the stock had already plunged over 14% during regular trading on Tuesday, and its price has dropped more than 37% from the June all-time high of $2,354. Although SNDK has still gained over 450% year-to-date, August has seen it enter a severe correction channel.
📉 Triple Negative Factors Simultaneously Hit SNDK
First, earnings guidance fell short of "super high expectations." SanDisk's fiscal 2026 Q4 results were "epic"—revenue of $8.97 billion (up 51% quarter-over-quarter, up 372% year-over-year), gross margin as high as 84.6%, and adjusted EPS of $39.25. However, fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue guidance of $10.3–10.8 billion (midpoint $10.55 billion) was below the market expectation of $11.1 billion. Against the backdrop of gross margins pushed to a historic high above 80% and extremely crowded positioning, the "past exceeding expectations" could not offset the "slightly below expectations future," making the guidance miss the core trigger for the sell-off.
Second, AI valuation concerns continue to ferment. Market doubts about the returns on massive AI investments are intensifying. Nvidia's recent push for a new round of AI infrastructure deals with a potential total scale exceeding $750 billion has exacerbated worries that AI demand is being "artificially inflated." Capital is rapidly withdrawing from crowded semiconductor and AI hardware sectors, shifting toward defensive sectors.
Third, intensified competition from China. After CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) completed its IPO, concerns about the global storage chip supply-demand landscape deepened further. Storage giants like Micron and SK Hynix also weakened simultaneously, and systemic sell-offs in the sector continue.
📊 Technical Analysis: $1,470 as the Decisive Bull-Bear Point
SNDK is currently near a critical decision zone. RSI6 is only 37.29, RSI12 is 30.25, and RSI24 is 33.18—short- and mid-term cycles have fully entered oversold territory, with RSI12 approaching the oversold threshold of 30, increasing the probability of a short-term oversold rebound. EMA5 ($1,477.44) and EMA10 ($1,480.78) have formed a death cross, while EMA20 ($1,495.18) remains above, exerting resistance. Regarding KDJ, K is 58.21, D is 45.59, and J is 83.43—J is relatively high, indicating rebound momentum has not fully faded but is limited.
Key levels: The first support below is in the $1,440–1,400 range—this is the immediate zone bulls need to defend; if this area is continuously broken, $1,340 will become the next critical test level; deeper support lies at $1,250—if lost, the bullish structure will face a complete reassessment. On the upside, $1,530–1,550 is the first rebound target; $1,600–1,650 is the most important mid-term resistance zone—if this area is surpassed, this correction may be considered a completed shakeout.
⚠️ Risk Warning
SNDK has surged over 450% this year, with extremely crowded positioning. Any "less than perfect" guidance could be magnified by the market. Although the company announced a $14 billion new stock buyback plan and signed long-term contracts covering about 50% of FY27 planned shipments with customers, market sentiment is in a typical late-cycle behavior: everyone knows the fundamentals are better than before, but no one wants to be the last to hold the bag.
Summary: SNDK plunged 4.88% early morning to $1,477, hit by triple negative factors of earnings guidance below expectations, AI valuation concerns, and Chinese competition. The $1,470 level will determine the short-term direction—holding it suggests a rebound toward $1,530–1,550; breaking it opens the $1,400–1,340 range. Investors are advised to strictly control positions, avoid high leverage chasing rallies or panics, and closely monitor the $1,440–1,400 support zone.Looking back at the market as of the early morning of August 28, the $BTC at 78,640 and $SOL 101 in this chart are already lagging prices. BTC has now returned to around $80,000, and SOL has surged to around $109. **There may be a few hundred dollars difference in quotes across exchanges, but the overall direction is consistent. 🔥 What the market is truly trading now is not just about "whether interest rates will be cut." The most important phrase on this chart is: "The market will experience greater volatility." I believe this judgment is correct, and it has already started to be realized. The current market has formed a very unique combination: BTC has climbed back above 80K + continuous ETF inflows + weaker dollar / fiscal deficit concerns + US Treasury yields rising again + Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech So now: fundamentals are bullish + technical highs + macro events are critical This is why I won't simply shout "bull market continues all-in," nor will I directly say "80K has topped." ⸻ (1) BTC: The key now is not 78,640, but whether 80K can hold steady. The latest market data shows BTC has returned to around $80K, with previous peaks around $81,200–81,300. Currently, the market views $80,000–82,850 as a key resistance zone and $77,500–78,000 as key support. So now BTC is actually moving forward: 62KAfter BTC surged to $80,000, it fell back to around $79,000, but one data point cannot be ignored:
The US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion.
My judgment is: this rally initially did have a short squeeze component, but subsequently, the ETF's real money continued to buy in, making the market structure healthier than a simple "short squeeze rebound."
Next, focus on two key levels:
Around $82,800 is the previous high resistance; breaking through and holding above it is the only chance to further challenge $100,000; if it falls back to around $75,000, it indicates that the chasing funds are starting to retreat.
You can be bullish on the trend now, but it’s not wise to ignore volatility. Do you think BTC can break through the previous high in one go this time? This Friday, the Bitcoin market will witness a rare concentrated expiration of options with a nominal value reaching $6.4 billion. The settlement of this massive contract has pushed this week's volatility expectations to the extreme and added a layer of tension to already sensitive risk assets. 📉 Looking at the current holdings distribution, buyers clearly have the upper hand, with large amounts accumulating at the $75,000 and $80,000 levels, fueling a strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, a detail that is easily overlooked is that the biggest pain point for these options contracts is near $68,000, which is quite a distance from the current price. This position means both bulls and bears have ample room to harvest, and the probability of a fierce two-way pull before and after settlement is not low. What is even more noteworthy is that this option expiry is not an isolated event. U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations reignited market concerns about the path of rate hikes; The release of Nvidia's latest earnings report also stirred up global capital markets; Coupled with the Fed meeting and a concentrated statement from officials, multiple variables overlapping simultaneously have made market sentiment highly sensitive. 📊 In the coming trading days, it is unlikely to see a calm movement. If the price drops rapidly, it is likely to be immediately taken over and pulled back by bull capital; And after a surge, it may also face concentrated pressure from bears. This kind of two-way sweeping scenario is not uncommon during options settlement weeks. Options themselves do not directly determine direction, but they act like amplifiers, displaying every price fluctuation exponentially on the market. For full-price fluctuationsThis week exploded through the ceiling — BTC surged 26% from 62,400 to break 81,200 on Monday, hitting a 5-month high. ETH soared 31% in the same period, surpassing 2,500; XRP jumped nearly 50% in a week; SOL hit 102; ZEC surged 70% in a week, reaching an 8-year high. The entire market's weekly market cap surged by $474 billion, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 81, "Extreme Greed".
Even more explosive was the short squeeze: during BTC's break above 80,000, about $1.06 billion in short positions were liquidated. Bitcoin shorts lost approximately $3 billion over the week, with daily liquidations across the network exceeding $600 million, a double whammy for longs and shorts.
Underlying this are three catalysts: spot BTC+ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.6 billion in one week (the strongest since October), with BlackRock's iShares absorbing 80% of that; the White House pushed the CLARITY Act + SEC's crypto framework shifting towards legislation, and Standard Chartered directly issued compliant stablecoins; US long bond repos + a weak dollar loosened risk assets.
But the tone shifted starting Wednesday: BTC retraced to 79,000, ETH held 2,470, whales (Hyperliquid large holders closed 60,000 ETH/1,200 BTC, Wang Chun reduced 23,000 ETH) took profits at highs, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped back to 65. Now it's a battle to defend the 80,000 level — if ETF inflows continue, it could surge to 85,000-90,000; if inflows stop and leverage liquidations occur, it could fall back to 73,000 at any time. With options expiration week, volatility will only get crazier.The crypto market on Thursday surged then pulled back, with BTC retreating below 79,000 after hitting 80,000 (about -1.2% in 24h), ETH holding near 2,490; SOL bucked the trend with a +4% rise breaking 101, XRP dropped nearly 3%, and CoinDesk 20 pulled back about 2.1%. Spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days (accumulating about 2.8 billion), providing support, but futures open interest declined, and the fear and greed index fell from 74, indicating short-term profit-taking.
On the macro side, US July PCE remains sticky, and rate hike bets are resurging, with short-term US Treasury yields rising, suppressing risk appetite; the 83,000–86,000 range is a dense supply zone, and only a firm hold above 83,000 can open the way to 85,000, otherwise a retest of 73,000 is expected. In terms of trading, avoid chasing highs, watch for continued ETF inflows and the impact of US stock NVDA earnings reports, with increased volatility expected during options expiration week.The pullback of $MRVL before the earnings report is more aligned with a concentrated risk reduction behavior by funds ahead of high expectations being realized. The advanced supply chain and data center earnings have confirmed AI network demand, with capital expenditures transmitted to the 1.6T and CPO key links. If the earnings report on AI network capital expenditures and guidance exceeds expectations, the recovery of risk appetite will drive valuation rebound. The failure conditions to watch are whether the subsequent announced performance guidance is below the market's high expectations and whether the 1.6T delivery pace slows down.
#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled? #StarkWare made the first quantum-secure transaction on the BTC mainnetLooking back at the previous cycle, $BTC experienced a strong rebound after a sharp decline, but the market did not immediately confirm the bottom and subsequently experienced new volatility and pullbacks. $ETH also followed a similar volatility path at that time. Now, the market has once again entered a phase worth watching. 👀 🟠 $BTC recently surged to around $81K, then fell back to the $78K–$79K range for consolidation. 🔵 $ETH continued to fluctuate around $2.48K–$2.52K, with overall stable performance. But this time, the biggest difference from before may not be the price itself...... Rather, institutional funds are continuously entering the market. 📊 Latest news: Recently, spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows have strengthened again, attracting about $2B+ in funds over the past week, and overall ETF demand also rebounded significantly in August. After a rapid rise, BTC pulled back to around $79K, and the market is currently more characterized by profit-taking and consolidation. This means the current market environment is clearly different from previous bear market phases: past rebounds relied more on short-term trading capital. Now, ETFs are providing sustained institutional demand for BTC. Of course, this does not mean prices will continue to pull back. The macro environment remains an important variable. Inflation, interest rate expectations, and Jackson Hole policy signals may all increase short-term market volatility. 👀 Focus next on: 🟠 Why the latest labor-market report matters for Bitcoin, interest rates, and the Jackson Hole debate August 27, 2026 The latest U.S. jobless-claims report delivered the kind of headline that can quickly unsettle risk markets: initial claims came in below expectations, Federal Reserve officials were again warning that inflation remains too high, and Bitcoin slipped below the closely watched $79,000 level after briefly trading above $80,000. That combination has encouraged a simple market narrative#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battle
I am Brother Ci. After BTC surged to 80,000 then pulled back, options concentrated expiration is amplifying the key level battle. On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with some positions distributed between 75,000 and 80,000. Both bulls and bears will make moves in the last two days.
K33 research shows this rally included the largest single-day short squeeze on record; futures open interest then declined, indicating short covering was a major driver of the earlier gains. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, with incremental funds entering the market, but the rapid price surge also increased holders' willingness to take profits. The short squeeze effect is weakening; whether ETFs and spot buying can continue to absorb high-level selling will determine if this rally is a trend recovery or a temporary rebound.
The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL The US spot BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, accumulating about $2.8 billion in capital inflow, and the cumulative net inflow in August has also exceeded $3 billion. The funds have indeed returned, which is one of the most important changes in this round of rebound.
But the problem lies here: although the ETF continues to have inflows, the latest single-day inflow has started to slow down from the previous peak. At the same time, BTC pulled back after surging above $80,000, indicating that there is also considerable selling pressure and profit-taking at this level.
Personally, I think we should no longer simply view "breaking through $80,000 means the bull market continues."
$80,000 is more like a verification line.
If the price pulls back next and ETF funds can still continue to flow in, and spot buying can gradually absorb the sell orders around $75,000 to $80,000, then this wave has a chance to transform from a "short squeeze rebound" into a genuine trend recovery.
But if ETF inflows start to noticeably weaken and BTC falls back below $75,000, then be cautious that this rise might be more of a short-term short squeeze rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Additionally, around August 28, there will be a batch of large BTC options expiring, with market interest concentrated around the $75,000 to $80,000 range. Option expirations themselves may not determine direction, but near key price levels, they can indeed amplify short-term volatility.
So my current view is simple: the hardest part for BTC has passed to some extent, but the most critical verification is just beginning.
The previous rise from the low to $80,000 relied on improved liquidity, ETF capital inflows, and short covering pushing it up together. Whether it can continue to rise from here can no longer rely solely on short squeezes.
What truly determines the next phase is whether incremental funds can continue to enter the market.
Price is more honest than words.
If BTC can repeatedly fluctuate around $80,000 and then stabilize, the upside space will truly open; if it surges and then gives back all gains, this rebound might just be an opportunity for trapped and profit-taking holders to exit.
I personally prefer to define the current phase as a "trend recovery stage" rather than directly declaring a new bull market has begun.
From now on, don’t just focus on how much BTC has risen.
Just watch two things: whether ETF funds continue to flow in, and whether the $75,000 to $80,000 range can hold after BTC pulls back.
Once these two answers come out, the next big direction will be roughly clear.
$BTC $SOL $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ASTER has surged again, the daily chart shot up from around 0.60 to 0.76, now resting near 0.71.
It didn’t fly out of thin air. On August 24th, a buyback and burn was reported: 4.24 million in fees were used to buy back for staking, and the team’s share was burned in equal amount. Plus, the Perp DEX has been driven by the compliance narrative from Hyperliquid.
But don’t romanticize it: back in June, it rose from 0.58 to 0.80, then quickly fell back. The burn is real, and so is the unlocking.
30-day +18%, but it has already pulled back a bit in 7 days. The 0.68–0.70 range is the key level for this wave. If it can’t hold, it will remain range-bound. Don’t mistake a pullback for a dump, nor a rebound for a takeoff.
DYOR, this is not a trade call. Tonight, CPO's sell-off was quite fierce, but I still lean bullish
$NVDA has already validated AI demand, and the earnings reports from optical communication and data center chain companies earlier were generally strong
The entire chain transmits orders and capital expenditures to each other, and $MRVL is again in a key position with high-speed interconnect, 1.6T, CPO, and custom chips. It's hard for me to believe it will suddenly falter
Today feels more like a concentrated risk reduction ahead of earnings with high expectations. What we really need to guard against is earnings that are "good but not explosive enough"
If guidance, 1.6T, and AI network demand continue to exceed expectations, this pullback might actually offer a rare opportunity to add positions.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 [NVIDIA Hits New High, But BTC Just Stuck at 80K? Tonight's Market Is Interesting]
NVIDIA's earnings exceeded expectations, reigniting the AI sector, and chip stocks are collectively recovering. Even more interestingly, BTC has climbed back above 80K, and ETH is also near 2520.
But I'm not in a hurry to chase right now.
Because NVIDIA's positive news has already been priced in, and tomorrow there's a speech by Wash at Jackson Hole. What we really need to watch tonight is whether this risk appetite can continue to spread from the US stock market to the crypto market.
BTC at 80K and ETH at 2500 are both critical levels tonight. Holding above them is the only reason to keep pushing higher; if they fail to hold after a rally, be cautious of a profit-taking pullback.
Also, volatile US stock tokens like SanDisk are worth watching. If AI sentiment continues to spread, it might be even more exciting than BTC.
Do you think 80K will become support tonight, or will it get smashed down again? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $NVDA 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 28)
Direction switched twice, shorts went from extreme dominance to being reversed 3.17 times by longs, with a total 24-hour liquidation of only $22,800, a very small scale, representing a low-liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4.39 $0 $4.39
4 hours $3,153.63 $503.98 $2,649.65
12 hours $4,852.79 $2,062.28 $2,790.52
24 hours $22,800 $17,300 $5,458.02
1-hour short dominance (longs zero), volume only $4.39, considered invalid scale; 4-hour shorts crushed longs by 5.26 times, volume surged to $2,600; 12-hour shorts slightly shrank to 1.35 times, volume rose to $2,100, longs and shorts nearly balanced; 24-hour longs violently reversed by 3.17 times, liquidation $17,300 vs shorts $5,458, total $22,800. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.3% of 24-hour total, concentration is low, longs gained momentum in the latter half of 24 hours. Longs violently reversed shorts, triggering a second short squeeze, but total daily volume only $22,800, representing a low-liquidity invalid market with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 27
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power king's report card, Bitcoin oscillating at high levels amid multiple catalysts—three forces converging in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: Wash's Jackson Hole debut is key
US July core PCE price index year-on-year 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure month-on-month near zero growth, consumption momentum clearly weakening.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash's diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal rifts becoming public, Wash's speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings beat: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, exceeding market expectation of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and "burning money" is continuously turning into "making money."
₿ BTC surged then pulled back: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin briefly broke $81,000 this Monday but then retreated to around $78,000 for consolidation. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test is Friday: Deribit will have about 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the biggest pain point at $68,000. Combined with Wash's speech as a chain catalyst, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September rate hikes; Nvidia's $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and the $6.4 billion options expiry will amplify the key level battle. LAB contract liquidation totaled only $22,800 for the whole day, representing extremely low liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market is waiting for Wash to provide direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 If we take the Bitcoin/Gold (BTC/Gold) ratio as a reference indicator, the imagination space for this market cycle is actually quite interesting.
Currently, gold is about $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin is around $80,000.
Assuming Bitcoin challenges the previous BTC/Gold ratio high again in the future:
📌 Scenario 1: Gold remains at the current level
If BTC/Gold returns to the historical extreme, Bitcoin's corresponding valuation could reach about $180,000 to $190,000.
📌 Scenario 2: Gold continues to hit new highs
If gold rises further and BTC/Gold again returns to historical highs, then Bitcoin's potential price range could be pushed to about $210,000 to $230,000.
This is not a price prediction but more like a valuation thought experiment:
If Bitcoin regains its historically strong position relative to gold, while gold itself also continues to rise, then BTC's target range would be significantly elevated.
It is worth noting that the recent market environment is also changing: Bitcoin has climbed back near $80,000, while gold remains at a high level of about $4,600 per ounce.
Therefore, instead of only focusing on BTC/USD, it is also worth continuously observing BTC/Gold.
If this ratio breaks through the historical high again, Bitcoin above $200,000 would no longer be just a simple price imagination but would become a valuation scenario worth discussing. $SOL closed above 107.94, but the 18.5% volume increase is not yet an acceleration
At 01:00 close, $SOL moved from 107.18 to 108.94, up 1.64%, confirming the first close above the 107.94 confirmation line.
Volume rose from 157,800 to 187,000 coins, only an 18.5% increase; the high was 109.49. Price confirmed, volume moderate.
The next candle must hold above 107.94 and close above 109.49 to be considered acceleration; closing below 107.94 confirms a downgrade.
My stance: confirmation established, but volume is not yet at a level to chase the rally. Will you wait for the 109.49 close or wait for volume to expand further?
SOL-USDT spot 1H, confirm=1, as of 01:00 UTC+8. For observation only.
#SOL$BTC & $ETH : HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, support#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC market cap surpasses $1.6 trillion, OI continues to decline, and funds have not genuinely supported this major rally, increasing the risk of chasing highs.
It can be judged that the market is mainly driven upward by a short squeeze.
The spot ETF entering tens of billions in a week is a secondary reason.
Next, the market will face challenges.
Bulls keep increasing positions to realize profits, making the short squeeze hard to sustain. For prices to continue rising, spot market support is needed, with real capital inflows to push prices up.
Last year, prices faced similar challenges at this level.
Then, MicroStrategy financed tens of billions of dollars and various spot ETFs launched, with traditional financial institutions entering the space, bringing nearly $100 billion in cash flow, pushing prices to $120,000.
My personal judgment is that such conditions are unlikely to occur again now.
Reasons:
1. MicroStrategy has already spent over $60 billion buying coins and has started selling. The probability of another round of tens of billions of dollars investment is zero.
2. In the spot market, there are many trapped positions above 80,000. Capital inflows will face the risk of carrying these positions, easily taking on others' losses.
3. From 2024 to the end of 2025 is the period when ETFs will be intensively approved, meaning they start from zero, with capital inflows of hundreds of millions or even billions. However, ETFs now already hold positions from their inception year, so the capital inflow may not match the scale of that year.
4. MicroStrategy's position is too heavy. If it does not actively fund price increases, any orders built above its cost may become tools to carry its positions. If the coin price rises by $1, it earns $800,000 unrealized profit, which can be realized anytime. MicroStrategy now is not the same as before. The largest shareholder is no longer Saylor; he has become the third largest shareholder. Therefore, his beliefs may not be supported by the board, increasing the likelihood of MicroStrategy changing its strategy.
In summary, I believe the probability of $BTC continuing a major rally breaking through 90,000 is greatly reduced.SOL leads the rally, BTC hovers around 80,000, XRP pulls back from highs — three assets, three different rhythms
$SOL continues to lead mainstream coins, surging over 8%, with a cumulative gain of about 44% this month, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2024, and the price has returned above $105. The direct catalyst is the historic governance vote by Solana network validators — the SIMD-550 proposal aims to double the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, shortening the time to reach the final 1.5% inflation rate from 5.7 years to 2.8 years. The result is expected to be announced within hours after the end of Epoch 1023. The RSI on the 14th has approached 84.5, indicating severe overbought conditions.
$BTC hit an intraday high of $80,808, returning to the 80,000 level. Three driving forces: nine consecutive days of net inflows into the US spot ETF, short positions being liquidated, and the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos. However, trading volume between 80,000 and 90,000 has been relatively low, with a strong supply wall near 83,000.
$XRP rose 5.5% in 24 hours and 19% for the week but has pulled back consecutively from the $1.66 resistance level. $1.40 is a key support.
SOL relies on narrative, BTC on macro factors, XRP is waiting for direction. Tonight, Fed Chair will speak at Jackson Hole for the first time — a dovish tone would confirm 80,000, a hawkish tone would say goodbye to 75,000.
Old K has finished speaking. Ponder it carefully. Why is this rebound different from the previous wave at 83000? Back then, I would say those wanting to cash out could do so, but this time I wouldn’t say that because I believe the bear market has officially ended. Once the bull market is confirmed, there’s no need to do these kinds of swings; it might even disrupt the entire rhythm. Although the two waves have the same increase, the volume behind them and the position of crossing above the short-term holders’ cost line have completely different meanings.
In the short term, $BTC is moving below 79000 in an increasingly narrow convergence, with lows gradually rising, showing a very strong posture and no signs of weakness. Absolutely do not short recklessly.
83000 exactly coincides with the 365-day moving average, which is the big boss in the early bull market; the closer to this resistance, the greater the pressure. If it can create a higher high around 85000, then trigger a 15% pullback, it will come down to around 72000. After the volume breakout in 2019, it immediately dropped nearly 15%, and after touching the 365-day moving average in 2023, it pulled back about 22%. This is the position I most look forward to and consider extremely critical. When it really arrives, I will use a short stop loss close by to seize a short-term entry opportunity for a large-scale move, with initial actual leverage not exceeding 3x.
Friends who are completely out of the market need not worry; the next opportunity will come soon. We held on together when everyone was looking at 40,000 or even 30,000, and caught the almost perfect start at 59,000. Now it’s indeed easiest to develop a fear of heights, but a bull market reversal is priceless. At 22:00 tonight, three events collide: Warsh's speech, the initial non-farm payroll benchmark, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, with the market holding its breath for direction.
BTC climbed above 80k but was pushed back, ETH is grinding around 2490 repeatedly, HYPE hit a new bear market high but both bulls and bears are struggling—just after rising it was swallowed, just after dropping it V-shaped back, a typical squeeze before news.
Here are some key levels first:
BTC: Above 79,200 is slightly bullish, 80k above is a short-term resistance cluster
ETH: Holding 2,440 targets 2,550→2,600
HYPE: The trend remains, but 82.0 is the short-term lifeline; break it and be cautious
Warsh's tone decides everything. If he leans dovish or avoids a clear path, liquidity expectations return, and BTC will likely first break above 80k; if hawkish and keeps rate hike options, short-term pressure, but "no stance" itself is often interpreted by the market as dovish—this ambiguous zone is easiest for bulls to exploit.
Regarding non-farm payrolls, July data was already weak, the market expects marginal downward revisions, the real surprise is whether the revision is large enough.
My choice: no adding positions, wait for Warsh to speak before moving. The worst move is a spike then pullback; saving bullets is more important than rushing.
How are you planning to position yourself? $SOL sol is about to undergo a deflationary reduction by halfNVIDIA this time not only stabilized its own stock price but also "locked in" the three major sectors behind it: storage and optical modules all rose collectively after hours, and none of it is a coincidence.
The key is a number: years of supply commitments jumped from last quarter's $119B to $279B, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the increment mainly coming from memory procurement. Jensen Huang is not predicting demand; he is preemptively buying out orders for the entire upstream chain.
Breaking down the transmission, the two chains each have their own way of rising:
1) Storage is the most direct. NVIDIA's CFO said, "Memory has entered extreme pricing, and it will be even higher next year," which means NVIDIA is endorsing the memory price increase with its own gross margin—it would rather let Q4 gross margin drop to 71-72% than lose the stock. Korean stocks $SKHY and $SNDK rose, and $MU followed after hours. Shortage equals pricing power; this is the hardest fact.
2) Optical modules/CPO: benefiting from the "hundreds of billions guidance" secondary dividend. Q3's $108B means data centers continue to expand, with $COHR, $Credo, $Astera, and $Aaoi all rising—they are not selling chips, but the vessels that connect chips.
Don't overlook the reverse risk: the current storage price increase is a "shortage premium." Whether it can continue in the next phase depends on how much memory each accelerator actually uses to absorb capacity, not just pushing prices based on shortage.
One earnings report stabilizes three chains, relying not on how strong NVIDIA is, but on the fact that it stands upstream of everyone's orders. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 **The medium to long-term weakening of the US dollar is almost a sure bet.**
Currently, the DXY US Dollar Index has dropped to **98.8**, breaking below the 99 mark, hitting a three-month low.
**Three major forces bearish on the US dollar:**
**1. The Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates**
- Federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, Citibank expects it to drop to 3.25% by year-end
- The first rate cut expectation has been pushed from September to October, but the direction remains unchanged
- Rate cut → US Treasury yields decline → US dollar assets become less attractive → capital outflows
**2. US fiscal mismanagement**
- This fiscal year’s deficit is expected to be $2 trillion, with national debt continuously expanding
- The 30-year yield once reached 5.34% (highest since 2007)
- The Treasury is forced to expand bond buybacks (from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation), essentially "flooding the market to prop it up"
- Brookings Institution economists directly warn: this is a "debt crisis turning into a currency crisis," following the same path as Japan
**3. Political uncertainty**
- Midterm elections approaching, policy swings
- The Trump administration has no intention to cut the deficit
**Institutional views:**
- Citibank: DXY will fall below 100 in the next 12 months
- BCA Research: clearly recommends shorting the US dollar, buying euros, yen, and gold
- More pessimistic technical analysis: if it breaks below 95.55, a structural collapse to **90** is possible
**What this means for you — this is the core logic behind holding BTC:**
Bitcoin’s rise from $64K to $80K was catalyzed on the surface by bond buybacks, but essentially it’s a **"debasement trade"** — capital fleeing US dollar assets into gold and BTC.
Last week, 13 BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of **$1.92 billion**, the largest single-week inflow in 10 months. Institutions are not speculating short-term; they are hedging against US dollar depreciation.
**Simply put:**
- The weaker the US dollar → the stronger BTC and gold
- The later the Fed cuts rates and the larger the fiscal deficit → the greater the long-term pressure on the US dollar
- This is not a few months’ trend, but a **2-3 year major trend**
Holding BTC/SOL spot without moving is essentially going long on the "US dollar debasement" mega trend. If the Fed Chair’s speech tomorrow leans dovish, the dollar will drop again, and BTC and SOL will step up another level.
**In one sentence: your position aligns with the macro trend, just hold on.**📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (August 28)
Shorts have gone from extreme crushing to continuous exhaustion, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $5.85 million, concentration at 56%, forming an inverted V-shaped exhaustion trajectory...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $165,300 $60,300 $104,900
4 hours $2,140,700 $189,800 $1,950,900
12 hours $3,274,500 $468,800 $2,805,700
24 hours $5,850,500 $892,900 $4,957,600
In 1 hour, shorts tested control with a 1.74x ratio, volume at $104,900, longs and shorts nearly balanced; in 4 hours, shorts surged to a peak of 10.28x, volume soared to $1,950,900, shorts took full control with a crushing posture; in 12 hours, shorts retreated to 5.98x, volume rose to $2,805,700; in 24 hours, shorts further dropped to 5.55x, liquidation at $4,957,600 versus longs at $892,900, totaling $5,850,500. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 56% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration—shorts completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours, and the ratio declined from 5.98x to 5.55x in the latter 12 hours, with short squeeze momentum continuously weakening and the long-short gap accelerating toward balance. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; although the direction is bearish, momentum is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power king's report, and Bitcoin oscillating at high levels amid multiple catalysts—three forces converging in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: Wash's Jackson Hole debut is key
The US July core PCE price index year-on-year is 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure growth is near zero month-on-month, showing a clear weakening in consumption momentum.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash's diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal fractures becoming public, Wash's speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings report exceeding expectations: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and "burning money" is continuously turning into "making money."
₿ BTC surges then falls: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin once broke above $81,000 this week but then retreated to oscillate around $78,000. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test is Friday: Deribit will have about 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the maximum pain point at $68,000. Coupled with Wash's speech as a chain catalyst, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September rate hikes; Nvidia's $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin briefly tested $80,000 then retreated to consolidate, with $6.4 billion options expiry amplifying the key level battle. $HYPE contract shorts have crashed from a 10.28x peak to 5.55x, with cumulative liquidation of $5.85 million, concentration at 56%, and short squeeze momentum continuously weakening. When inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market is waiting for Wash to provide direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH Ethereum's volume and price performance is positive, and it may continue to rise in the short term?
In the analysis on August 24
2547 and 2221 are the key levels to determine whether this Ethereum market trend is a "reversal" or a "rebound."
Currently, the latest volume, price, and capital flow performance are leaning towards an optimistic scenario.
After $ETH broke through the 2465 resistance level on August 21, it briefly pulled back to 2355 but then broke through 2465 again. During the recent days of consolidation, it has mostly remained above 2465.
More importantly, from the volume-price relationship:
The trading volume during the downtrend in the consolidation period since August 21 is significantly lower than the volume during the uptrend from August 19 to 21.
This indicates that the selling pressure in the market is not strong, and at least for now, there is no obvious concentrated profit-taking.
Additionally, from the Ethereum spot capital flow data I have been tracking, since August 19, only August 25 saw a net outflow of funds, and the scale was significantly smaller than the net inflows on August 20 and August 21.
The volume, price, and capital flow performances are basically consistent:
Volume expands on the rise, contracts on the fall, and the capital flow has not shown obvious deterioration.
Therefore, my current judgment on Ethereum is more optimistic compared to August 24:
The probability of a short-term drop below 2221 is temporarily low, while the probability of retesting 2547 or even breaking through 2547 is increasing.
If a volume breakout above 2547 occurs later, it would mean a significantly higher possibility of evolving into a larger-scale upward structure.$BTC $ETH $SOL
If BTC can firmly hold the $80K zone, the broader bull-market outlook could become even stronger.
My personal long-term targets: BTC: $150K in 2027, with a possible cycle peak near $300K in 2029. ETH: $9K in 2027, potentially reaching $15K in 2029. SOL: $350 in 2027, with a possible peak around $900 in 2029.
These are simply my own bullish projections, not financial advice. The market will decide whether they become reality.