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🤔NVIDIA surged 7% late at night, increasing its market value by $359 billion; earnings have exceeded Wall Street expectations for 16 consecutive quarters, raising investor appetite. The stock price has only risen 13% this year.
NVIDIA achieved revenue of $96.221 billion (approximately RMB 646.6 billion) in the second fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 106% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, surpassing analysts' estimate of $92.17 billion.
On a GAAP basis, NVIDIA's net profit for the second fiscal quarter was $59.688 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126%; diluted earnings per share were $2.46; gross margin was 75.0%, up about 2.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
NVIDIA stated that the gross margin improvement was mainly due to the improved product mix of Blackwell Ultra (AI GPU platform). $NVDA Every Chain Has a Signature Narrative. Here Is What Fills The Top 50 🔍 Chains compete on narratives, but the tokens with the most value on them tell the real story. We sorted the top-50 tokens by market cap on seven major chains into categories, and each one has a signature of its own. On Robinhood Chain, more than half of the top-50 tokens by market cap are memecoins, with a concentration no other chain comes close to. The category it was actually built for, tokenized assets, sits at just 12%.$BTC BTC surged from $64,000 to $77,000 in two days, an increase of over 20%
A violent rally in just two days, driven by a triple force resonance of macroeconomic tailwinds + short squeeze stampede + institutional capital inflows.
1. Three core drivers of the rise
1. US macro liquidity shift (the fundamental cause)
The US Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase scale, lowering long-term US Treasury yields and weakening the dollar. Market concerns about currency depreciation led funds to flow into Bitcoin, gold, and other anti-devaluation assets, warming the overall risk asset environment.
2. Rising regulatory expectations
Trump met with crypto industry executives, urging Congress to advance crypto regulatory legislation. The market expects the US to introduce friendly and clear regulations, driving a significant return of funds to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the strongest weekly net inflow in nearly 10 months.
3. Short squeeze, leverage-driven short covering amplifies gains
Prices rose rapidly, triggering forced liquidations of many leveraged short positions. The closing of short positions further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. In two days, billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated, and tens of thousands of traders were liquidated, which is the most direct booster of the short-term surge.
2. Huge risks that must be taken seriously
1. This rally is heavily driven by short squeezes; if buying momentum fails to continue, a rapid and deep correction could occur at any time. After a sharp rise, a sharp fall is very likely.
2. The coin price is highly tied to US dollar liquidity and US regulatory stance. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve statements, or US policies will reverse the trend.Bitcoin has recently successfully stabilized above $80,000, once surging to around $81,000 during trading, hitting a nearly three-month high and becoming a core signal of renewed optimism in the crypto market.
This round of rally is driven by three combined logics:
1. A weaker US dollar attracts safe-haven funds, restarting currency devaluation trades. Influenced by US fiscal policies and long-term bond repurchase expectations, the dollar is under downward pressure, prompting funds to allocate to hard assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against fiat currency purchasing power erosion.
2. Continuous capital inflow into spot ETFs strengthens institutional demand. The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen sustained net inflows, with institutions steadily accumulating and reducing market circulating supply, helping prices break key resistance levels.
3. Short covering accelerates the rally. A large number of leveraged short positions were accumulated around $80,000; after the price breakout, concentrated stop-loss triggers caused passive short covering, further amplifying the price surge. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will the Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
Before Walsh even speaks, BTC has already fallen below 79,000.
Tomorrow Walsh will speak at Jackson Hole.
Before he even opens his mouth, BTC has already knelt.
This morning in the Asian session, $BTC dropped below 79,000, retreating 2,700 points from 81,200 in three days. $ETH fared worse, falling from 2,566 to around 2,490, dropping even harder than BTC.
I still hold long ETH positions; I probably won’t sleep tonight.
What is the market afraid of?
Apollo Global Management predicts Walsh will lean hawkish. Last month, three committee members already supported a rate hike. Core PCE is still at 3.3%, far from 2%. If Walsh takes a tough stance tomorrow, this rebound might end abruptly.
But knowing his style—he most likely won’t give a clear answer.
Another key level to watch is 83,000.
Glassnode data shows a “supply wall” between 83,000 and 86,000, where early trapped positions are being freed, limit sell orders, and profit-taking forces overlap. On the ETH side, the 200-week moving average is pressing near 2,500, with the upper Bollinger Band between 2,600-2,650 still to overcome.
On one side, ETFs have had eight consecutive days of net inflows totaling 2.8 billion. On the other, Walsh might pour cold water on the market. On one side is the 83,000 supply wall; on the other is the recently surpassed 200-day moving average.
Still holding long positions but ready to exit at any moment.
Will Walsh ease up tomorrow? Can the 83,000 wall be breached? Both remain unknown.After the earnings report, crypto generally rebounded, but don't rush to call the bull market back. Looking at the structure: today $SOL surged nearly 10% leading the rally, ETH followed a bit, while BTC only slightly lifted — the mainstream hasn't broken previous highs, and money is flowing into secondary leading coins. I've seen this kind of "differentiation within a broad rally" many times: it's not a new trend starting, more like after a short squeeze fades, funds can't find direction and keep hopping between sectors. The daily chart is still stuck in extreme overbought territory, grinding below previous highs; those chasing the high should first ask themselves: can you hold? My approach hasn't changed — I don't chase rebound spikes, only heavy spot positions where I understand the market and won't panic if it drops. Are you fully invested now, or like me, holding some ammo?Breaking News: Preview of the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
The highly anticipated Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is about to be held in the United States. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond remains firmly above 5.25%, hitting a new high for the 2020s, which has led global investors to overlook the meeting's theme of financial innovation and instead focus on the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The Global Central Bank Annual Meeting began in 1978, gathering central bank governors, finance ministers, economists, and financial heavyweights in the small town of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to listen to the Federal Reserve Chair's outlook on the global financial system for the coming year. Historically, the event has produced iconic moments: Bernanke announced the second round of quantitative easing; in 2020, Powell introduced the average inflation targeting framework that led to soaring inflation; in 2023, he delivered the "black eight-minute" speech emphasizing aggressive rate hikes, causing a major global stock market sell-off. Now, the global market is all ears, fearing Powell might bring bad news.
This year's meeting theme is financial innovation, payments, and policy impact, with a core focus on introducing innovative methods in the crypto space, linking the US dollar with AI, shifting from the petrodollar to a new AI dollar anchor.
The market is more worried about whether Powell will mess up again like at the July meeting. Criticism centers on three points: first, he only talks about grand reform narratives without concrete guidance; second, he verbally shouts anti-inflation but does not mention rate hike tools; third, he openly and covertly emphasizes five reform working groups, hinting at possible changes to the 2% inflation target, which contradicts most members' focus on core PCE.
Powell is currently the Fed's sole reformist. Duke University professor Mead commented that Powell's emphasis on reform has not brought benefits but instead cornered himself. After the meeting, US bonds punished Powell, with the 30-year yield surging to 5.35%, even prompting Treasury Secretary Yellen to personally intervene to stabilize the market. However, Yellen's mentor Druckenmiller criticized in the Wall Street Journal that the Treasury's market intervention is antagonistic to the market and that it should first correct its own mistakes—an implicit jab at Powell.
How can Powell redeem himself? First, he should change his tough stance of refusing to provide guidance. With long-term yields rising, the market is effectively front-running the Fed's ambiguous rate hikes. A CNBC survey shows that 80% of economists want Powell to share more economic insights, an astonishing proportion.
Looking ahead, there are three possibilities: one, he delivers a grand narrative aligned with the meeting's theme to promote a long-term AI dollar strategy, which could worsen the US debt crisis in the short term but is less likely. Two, a balanced speech addressing both long-term policy and short-term inflation, clearly preparing for rate hikes, which is the most probable. Three, a direct hawkish approach, emulating Greenspan's 1995 model—telling the market that the tech revolution boosts productivity, so to prevent overheating, hikes come first, followed by cuts. This approach demands high expression and credibility, and it is uncertain if Powell can handle it.
The good news is Powell will read from a script rather than improvise, likely guided by experts behind the scenes. His speech at 10 PM Friday must be neither too hawkish nor too dovish. A smooth passage will calm the bond storm and lay the foundation for AI; any misstep could cause market turbulence until the September rate meeting.
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's earnings blew up, $MRVL also benefited, but tonight is the main event.
After yesterday's market close, NVIDIA released its earnings report with solid data: revenue of 96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%, and data center revenue of 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The guidance for the next quarter is 108 billion, also exceeding market expectations. The stock rose 4% after hours, but the "post-earnings drop" curse for NVIDIA has lasted four quarters, so the real test will be the price movement after the official market open tonight.
Driven by $NVDA, MRVL is also up in pre-market trading today. MRVL will also release its earnings after market close tonight, riding this wave of sentiment, already up 4% pre-market.
Institutions expect MRVL's revenue to be around 2.7 billion, with full-year guidance of 10.7-11 billion, and data center accounting for over 80%. Marvell makes custom chips and network chips for data centers, with AI data center-related business already generating over 2 billion USD per quarter. Plus, NVIDIA previously invested 2 billion in Marvell, binding the two companies closely. NVDA's performance and guidance directly drive MRVL's order expectations.
However, MRVL's stock price has also been quite volatile after earnings in the last four quarters, rising as much as 14.7% but also falling 15.9%. Given the current high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio over 80, whether tonight's results can support this valuation is the key.
First, let's see how NVIDIA performs, then whether MRVL's earnings can sustain this momentum. Nansen data shows that about 990,000 wallets have cumulatively lost $3.8 billion on TRUMP. The revenue disclosed by Trump-related entities (such as CIC Digital) is extremely high—"The president is making money, while retail investors are footing the bill."
The fate of political meme coins is: news drives the price up, and selling drives it down. The essence of this market movement is that policy news ignited FOMO, while insiders are using liquidity to offload chips to retail investors chasing the rally. In this game, your opponent is not the market, but the project team, so don't be afraid.A reminder not to get misled by Nvidia's good news: the real switch is the Jackson Hole conference starting today, and then the debut of Waller on Friday. Why is Waller's appearance more important than usual? Because in the market's eyes, he is a potential next Fed Chair, and this is his first time speaking at such a major global central bank event. Whether he leans hawkish or dovish carries much more weight than an ordinary speech. Don't forget the background: July PCE inflation at 3.7%, still higher than expected, and the hard line on rate hike expectations hasn't softened at all. Earnings reports can make the market rebound for a day, but what determines the overall direction of risk assets is where interest rates are headed. $BTC is now stuck just below its previous high, waiting for these key figures to clarify their stance. I'm not fully invested this week, nor betting on a single direction, precisely because I'm waiting for this. Are you more concerned about earnings reports or the Fed?$BTC is oscillating at a high level, what’s next?
As of August 27, 2026, Bitcoin entered a high-level consolidation after a strong rebound, with several signals across different dimensions worth noting.
Technical: The weekly chart has broken through the previously sustained downward trendline lasting several months, and the MACD has started to turn upward. The first resistance above is at $81,233 (this week’s high), followed by the historical resistance at $82,000; below, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converge densely around $78,700–$78,900, forming a core zone of short-term bulls and bears contention. Further down, $77,600–$77,900 is a strong support band.
Capital: ETFs continue to attract funds, with net inflows exceeding $650 million in the first two days of this week. BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributed $284 million, and total inflows this week are expected to surpass $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, spot order book liquidity is abundant, with 0.5% market depth reaching up to $9.6 million, far exceeding historical highs, indicating that this rally is driven by real buying demand.
Macro: The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, easing upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, the "currency depreciation trade" logic is heating up, with Bitcoin and gold benefiting simultaneously as scarce hard assets.
Sentiment: The long-to-short position ratio is 53.65% to 46.35%, showing little divergence and no extreme crowded one-sided market. Notably, on August 19, short liquidations reached $2.7 billion, setting the highest record since statistics began in 2021, significantly releasing short selling pressure.
Outlook: If ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is likely to challenge $82,000 upward, with limited downward pressure below $80,000; if spot funds do not follow, it may consolidate in the $75,000–$80,000 range, but even if it pulls back, the bottom will likely be significantly higher than the previous low of $57,000.
️#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Nvidia's financial report can actually be viewed in two stages: first, flaws in the report itself; second, the earnings call opening up future expectations. Going into the specifics of the financial report, the flaw in the first phase is a slight decline in gross margin. Of course, the official explanation is that rising memory and component prices compressed profits, causing a slight decline in gross margin. Although there are flaws, the overall earnings market is satisfied, so the stock price did not immediately rise after the earnings was released. During the second stage of the call, Huang boldly stated that revenue growth for the next fiscal year is about 70%, a conservative estimate, and even suggests a 100% possibility. At the same time, suppliers have pledged orders to increase from $119 billion to $279 billion, a 134% growth expectation, allowing the AI demand story to extend into 2027 and boosting overall market expectations. #财报观察员: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue begins to pay off. Therefore, Nvidia's Q2 earnings report answers three major market questions: 1. AI capital expenditure has not peaked; 2. The new flagship Rubin's order decline did not cause a gap in order demand; 3. Nvidia's growth has not slowed down; instead, there has been a short-term explosion. Therefore, this Q2 quarterly conclusion has solidified the current AI narrative in the US stock market and given the market more confidence. However, Nvidia's current breakout is not without future risks, especially on the order side. The Q2 earnings report revealed a significant surge in future orders, particularly boosting market confidence in 2027. But here's the problem: next quarter, the market will have to question thisEveryone is only focusing on how many points Nvidia's stock rose in its earnings report, but I'm more concerned about a few other signals: CrowdStrike rose 10% in one day, Salesforce rose 19%, marking its biggest single-day increase since 2020, and the cloud computing sector also collectively went up. What does this indicate? The AI narrative is expanding from "selling shovels" to "using shovels to dig for gold"—people have already bought into the computing hardware story, and now the market is starting to price in the application and software layers. For us in the crypto space, this means: those coins riding the AI concept can't just talk about computing power anymore; next, we need to see real revenue and practical use cases, otherwise it's just pure sentiment. While others are hyped about hardware leaders, I prefer to spend time thinking: where will the next wave of money flow to, in a more solid direction? What do you think the second half of the AI narrative will be about—software or something else? 昨晚比特币一度冲上八万美元关口，最高触及大约81270美元，但这一突破并没有持续太久，价格随后回落至79000美元附近，今天仍在继续走弱。这样的走势让不少采用马丁格尔策略的交易者来回受挫，仓位被反复打乱，情绪上也难免有些疲惫。 从盘面结构来看，这轮冲高回落其实并不意外。首先，短线空头力量在快速拉升中被大量清洗，市场上缺乏足够的被动买盘来承接价格继续上行；其次，价格短期上涨过快，积累的获利盘集中兑现，形成明显的抛压。两者叠加，八万关口虽然被短暂触碰，却难以形成有效站稳。 更值得关注的是，此前持续为市场提供买盘支撑的大型机构本周意外“停手”。MicroStrategy上周没有增持任何比特币，反而通过出售股票累计筹集约2.01亿美元，并设立了一笔1.59亿美元的新现金储备，官方说法是“增强资产负债表灵活性”。这释放出一个清晰信号：在八万附近，即便是最坚定的长期买家也开始选择观望，而非追高。 缺少了这一持续买入的力量，市场的边际买盘明显减弱，价格自然更容易在关键价位附近反复震荡。短期来看，比特币预计仍会在78000至80000美元区间内消化整理，八万关口已经试探过一次，但能否真正站稳，还需要观$CORE Many people don't understand why the core coin experiences so much dumping every day, with occasional massive crashes. Major mainstream exchanges delist core, all nodes withdraw, and the entire ecosystem collapses. First: The project team uses staked Bitcoin to produce core and sells these assets to buy back Bitcoin. Second: The staking site holds over 300 million coins in total, among which the project team themselves hold 300 million coins that users haven't claimed, staking them and dumping the daily generated interest. Third: What many newbies don't know is that since the year before last, the project team secretly changed the circulating supply, skyrocketing it from 100 million coins directly to over 1 billion coins. Overnight, the market inexplicably had nearly 1 billion more core coins. Older people in China don't use Twitter, but you can check Twitter for the most genuine global opinions on core. The project's anonymity was a premeditated escape route for a run. $MU babala is shorting MU again! #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
This time I opened a short at 956.
NVIDIA's earnings fully exceeded expectations, and MU opened directly high at 967 today, reaching a peak of 983.6 at the open. But such strong positive news couldn't keep the price above 980; instead, it quickly fell below the opening price and 956, currently retreating to around 930.
What I'm doing is trading the pullback after the positive news is priced in.
MU previously dropped from 1036 all the way down to 888. Although it has recently rebounded continuously, 980–1000 remains a clear resistance zone. Today, riding on NVIDIA's earnings surge, it was ultimately hammered back down, indicating that the profit-taking above hasn't disappeared.
✔ Entry position: 956
✔ First take profit: 945–938
✔ Main target: 910–890
✔ Break below 924: continue targeting 910
✔ Be cautious if it reclaims 960
✔ Hourly close above 967 basically invalidates the short logic
Now near 948 is close to the first support; I won't continue to chase shorts or add positions. Take partial profits at 930–920, then watch the remaining position near 930.
Micron's long-term HBM and storage price increase logic remains strong, so this is not a long-term bearish view but a short-term trade on positive news being priced in.
Positive news can lift the opening price, but if it can't hold, it just gives shorts a better entry.
babala can only make money by shorting!Why short $ENA?
First, huge volume meets sky-high price. Huge volume means a large turnover; the sellers are mostly VCs and project teams, while the buyers are mostly retail investors. This can be seen from address transfers, which are either primary or secondary distributions.
Second, in the crypto space, it’s all about accumulation, pump, and dump.
A hallmark of dumping is a massive volume surge after a significant price increase. If the asset enters the dumping phase, choosing to short is a good option.
Third, after a huge price increase, the chips have changed hands, largely replaced by impatient retail investors. If the price doesn’t rise, retail investors tend to exit easily—commonly saying they won’t play this coin anymore and will move to others. Once a drop happens, a stampede is very likely.
Fourth, look at Binance’s smart money data on unrealized profits or losses for longs and shorts. On the long side, there are many participants (crowded), and the losses exceed the shorts’ profits by an order of magnitude, which is incredible. If the longs lose so much money, the big players can easily push the price down, forcing longs to cover shorts and triggering a stampede.Listen to Brother Dao!
NVIDIA's earnings report exploded, after-hours first dropped then surged, this script is harder to predict than the Pharaoh's pyramid.
Brother Dao directly said, the data is indeed solid beyond doubt, revenue 96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center 89 billion up 117%, EPS $2.22, setting records for 13 consecutive quarters. But after-hours first dropped 1.3% then surged 4%, indicating that just beating expectations is no longer enough; the market wants to know "whether the software ecosystem can turn hardware premium into sustainable cash flow."
Huang gave two signals. For the first time, he provided a full-year advance guidance, expecting fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, far exceeding analysts' expectation of 45%. The per-gigawatt data center revenue opportunity increased from Blackwell's 25 billion to Vera Rubin's 40 billion, a 60% rise. Software revenue is starting to materialize, and this is the real excitement for the market.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The AI infrastructure ledger is becoming clearer, computing power is turning into quantifiable revenue, and the risk appetite across the entire tech sector will be pushed higher. Bitcoin, as the "ultimate expression" of risk assets, will not be absent from this revaluation in the long term.
Good trades are worth waiting for; the direction is already clear.
Follow the Pharaoh, wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SOL #EarningsObserver: NVIDIA beats expectations, software revenue starts to materialize
Brother Dao has spoken, savor it carefully Bro! $BTC slid back down to that $79,100 corner again. This afternoon was pretty intense, riding the Nvidia earnings wave, it charged up to $80,500 but then got pushed back down! The second time in two days it tried to break the $80k barrier and got slapped down, like hitting a brick wall.
I analyzed it and there are mainly two lines: the short-term surge was too steep, and insiders were eager to count their money. Back on August 15, $BTC was still holding at $62k, and in less than a week, it touched $81k at the peak, a nearly 30% jump. This isn’t a slow bull market, it’s a bull on stimulants. With this move, all the early trapped holders got freed, and those who bought at the bottom are swimming in profits.
The Nvidia earnings tailwind has passed and turned from a positive to a negative. Everyone knew Nvidia’s earnings were the highlight of the week, the market was already hyped and expectations priced in. When the report finally came out, the numbers were decent but didn’t exceed the already high expectations.
Tomorrow there’s still a $6.4 billion mountain of options ahead, both bulls and bears have to weigh carefully. Massive options expire on Friday, and the market feels like walking a tightrope right now. Today and tomorrow will probably see back-and-forth battles; before the direction is clear, whoever makes the first move gets hit first!
The $80k level is a tough nut to crack, enough to chew on for a couple of days. Both attempts to break through failed to hold, showing the selling pressure here is real. It’s not a bad thing to pause before breaking through to shake off the weak hands. After tomorrow’s big options lottery payout, the market will change hands, and that might be the real turning point. For now, just grab a small stool and watch the show, don’t rush in to be cannon fodder~If we understand NVIDIA $NVDA's business model in a minimalist way, essentially it's a card seller; the more cards sold, the higher the net profit margin, the more profit made, and the higher the stock price.
So, what determines whether more cards can be sold is simply whether downstream AI application demand grows strongly enough, and whether competitors also release cards that split sales.
From the current user experience, AI computing power demand is definitely strong; before ordinary people can easily access and call on computing power, it remains scarce. But whether this usage value translates into commercial value, and whether the stock price has already priced this in, is a subjective and divisive topic. This is also why Capex and financing capabilities are so highly valued by the market—after all, just praising it verbally is useless; money has to be spent to make it happen.
Meanwhile, more and more companies are starting to develop their own chips, and the Chinese market remains difficult to penetrate, which in reality limits NVIDIA's imagination for chip shipments.
From the technical structure of the market, this rise is still event-driven rather than a structural reversal. Currently, the straddle break-even range at expiration is roughly $197.67–$222.33, which coincides with the after-hours high, so I choose to short one contract. Only if the stock price completely breaks through the $225–$228 resistance can we look at the next range. And on the eve of a likely hawkish move by the Fed, shorting at high levels obviously has a better chance of winning. Trump Plans New Semiconductor Tariffs, AI Industry Becomes the "Price" — Storage Chip Stocks Face Short-Term Pressure!
According to insiders, the Trump administration is considering a new round of large-scale semiconductor tariffs, not limited to chips themselves but also extending to end products such as laptops, gaming consoles, and data center servers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick favors linking tariff exemptions to companies' chip investments in the U.S. to promote domestic manufacturing.
The contradiction lies in the fact that over 90% of advanced chips in the U.S. rely on Asian supply chains, and domestic production capacity is far from sufficient to meet demand. Tech companies warn that this move could increase data center construction costs and weaken the U.S.'s competitiveness in the AI field. The policy framework may still undergo significant adjustments in the coming weeks, with uncertainty remaining.
Short-term impact on storage chip stocks:
The tariff news itself is bearish, but Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings have driven the storage sector to collectively rise in pre-market trading. In the short term, AI demand sentiment outweighs tariff policy concerns, and the market temporarily chooses to "look at earnings first, worry about tariffs later." If the new tariffs are ultimately implemented, they will impose substantial cost shocks on the storage chip supply chain that relies on Asian manufacturing.
In a nutshell: Nvidia supports the sentiment, tariffs hang overhead — the hotter AI gets, the harsher the taxes.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 $BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ How will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone with the US core PCE flat from last month?
$BTC is reported at $79,887, up 1.54% in 24 hours, hitting a high of $80,026 before pulling back; ETH rose 3.32% to 2,536. The total market cap slightly dipped to 2.70 trillion. The price hovered around the 80,000 mark all day, waiting for Jackson Hole on Friday to provide direction.
PCE data landed neither hot nor cold: core at 3.3% unchanged from last month, the rapid rate cut fantasy is basically dashed, all eyes now on Waller’s first speech as Fed governor—dovish, risk assets breathe a sigh of relief; hawkish, liquidity expectations tighten. On August 28, about $640 million in BTC options expire, with capital concentrated around the 80,000 mark; the closer the price gets, the more volatility is likely to be amplified.
Structurally, after breaking the long-term downtrend line, the direction has shifted from bearish to bullish; currently, it is just a high-level choice within the previous high supply zone. Volume and price show demand exhaustion (volume contraction on the second test), but supply has not continued—this only indicates short-term pullback demand, not evidence for shorting; the structure at both large and small scales remains unchanged, and the pullback is just a correction within the structure.
There are two paths ahead to prepare for:
Waller leans dovish + volume expands and holds above 80,000 → target 82,000, wait for a pullback confirmation before entering;
Waller leans hawkish + breaks below 77,000 → pullback to dense support near 74,000, which is the high cost-performance zone to buy more.
In between: chasing longs is poor value, shorting against the trend is risky; the best solution is to hold positions and let the market choose its direction.
The structure keeps evolving, bullishness continues. The real risk is not the pullback, but giving up your chips before the structure breaks.
What do you think, will Waller be dovish or hawkish on Friday? Is 80,000 this time a buildup for a breakout or a false breakout? Share your judgment in the comments.Bitcoin returns to 80,000, Ethereum hits a six-month high
On August 27, the crypto market collectively surged. Bitcoin strongly broke through the $80,000 mark, currently at 80004 USDT, up 1.24% for the day; Ethereum showed even more strength, reaching $2566.26, soaring 4.88%, marking a six-month high.
Previously, Bitcoin $BTC had been trading sideways between $57,000 and $68,000 for three months. This breakout signifies the market entering a new phase. The main drivers behind this are threefold: first, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted nearly $2 billion over five consecutive days, signaling a major return of institutional funds; second, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling the repurchase of long-term government bonds, weakening the dollar and indirectly boosting safe-haven assets; third, the "Clear Act" pushed by the Trump administration and the SEC's new regulatory framework have injected policy optimism into the market.
Regarding Ethereum $ETH, besides being driven by Bitcoin, its spot ETF also recorded strong net inflows, leading to a double boost and outperforming gains.
However, Bitcoin faces strong supply pressure between $80,000 and $82,000, and short-term bullish and bearish battles may intensify. Overall, market sentiment has shifted from panic to extreme greed. With both leading coins breaking through simultaneously, the short-term heat in the crypto market is evident, but chasing the highs still requires caution.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 NVIDIA is just the first half of this week; the real second half switch is the upcoming Jackson Hole and Powell's speeches. Don't be fooled by the rebound after earnings on the market; the macroeconomic line hasn't loosened at all: July PCE inflation at 3.7% exceeded expectations, oil prices have rebounded again, and the market's pricing for a September rate hike is still rising. Against this backdrop, I always question the voices saying "all bad news is priced in, go all in" on the timeline. Chasing high-risk assets in a rate hike cycle is like sitting at a poker table knowing your opponent is raising and still hoping to catch a straight by luck. My approach is simple: don't go all in or bet on direction before the event concludes; save your bullets until the cards on the table are clear. **No change.**
BTC ~$78,900, SOL ~$104 (24H high $105.5).
The SOL voting result will be out in less than 2 hours (23:30), and the market has already priced in the expected approval in the $104-$105 range. BTC continues to trade sideways waiting for tomorrow's Wash.
There may be two possible scenarios tonight:
- **SOL vote passes + no disputes** → SOL may surge to $108-$110 then pull back (buy the rumor, sell the fact)
- **Insufficient participation / rule disputes** → SOL may quickly retest $98-$100
Either way, you hold your OKSOL base position without moving it, and don’t chase the highs. I’ll tell you the result when it’s out. Rest assured and wait for tomorrow.A big bullish candlestick, like an army of thousands coming to meet.
After a surge in $BTC, all kinds of market characters have emerged in the community, with voices everywhere saying it will soon hit 100,000.
Objective data is right in front of us: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days, with institutional incremental funds continuously entering.
At the current intensity of continuous capital inflow, the subjective feeling is that a deep short-term correction is unlikely, and the bullish momentum is very strong.
But this is just a personal feeling and should not be taken as market truth.
There is another major event that cannot be ignored: at 22:00 Beijing time tomorrow night, the main speech at the Jackson Hole symposium by Jerome Powell.
It is close to the September interest rate meeting, and this speech will directly affect expectations of US dollar liquidity.
If the tone is hawkish, raising rate hike expectations, risk assets could easily face a wave of suppression.
If the tone is neutral or dovish, it will continue to sustain this round of the market rally.
Historically, Jackson Hole speeches often trigger large fluctuations. Even if bulls are strong now, this macro variable is an uncertainty hanging over the market.
When funds are pouring in crazily, a sudden violent shakeout can still happen unexpectedly. Once ETF inflows slow down, combined with macro news shocks, a correction can come at any time.
Many people are conflicted: should they fully buy spot now, or keep cash on hand? What if there is a sudden surge tomorrow—should they chase it?
This is inherently a dilemma, and no one can predict it. You have to decide for yourself.
The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 1.2 billion tokens are about to flood the market, can a daily buyback of 500,000 handle it? Let's talk about my real view on Hyperliquid's big unlock this time
Many friends have been asking me recently, after HYPE broke its all-time high, there is an imminent massive unlock of $1.2 billion worth of tokens. Should holders sell early? Honestly, if this were one of those VC-inflated air coins from before, with such a cliff-like unlock on hundreds of times profit, I would have sold everything without hesitation. But this time, Hyperliquid's market situation shows me a completely different game logic.
The fundamental difference is that this project doesn't rely on PPT storytelling; it actually earns over $500,000 in trading fees every day, and 100% of that is used to buy back and burn tokens on the secondary market. You can look at those so-called star projects with low circulation and high valuations in the past — the teams only keep unlocking and dumping tokens for retail investors to catch, and the protocol itself has no real cash flow. Hyperliquid at least turns the real money it earns into a bottom-buying force to counter selling pressure.
But we must never trade blindly or get emotionally attached. The $1.2 billion worth of tokens coming down is no joke. Early holders who got tokens at extremely low cost and have hundreds of times profit won't all patiently hold for the long term. As soon as a few big whales decide to cash out en masse, the daily buyback of a few hundred thousand will definitely be instantly overwhelmed in the short term.Today's market has already sent a very important signal: $BTC is still repeatedly competing around $79K for $80K, but altcoins have not followed suit with a wild surge. So far, BTC is about $78.9K, ETH is about $2,495, SOL is around $96, and XRP is around $1.4. The market was generally volatile today, while some large-cap altcoins like XRP actually pulled back. This shows that now is not the time to directly call for a "full altcoin season." But one change is worth noting: Binance's altcoin trading volume share has risen to about 65%, a two-year high, while BTC and ETH account for only about 21% and 13.6%, respectively. The problem is, the Altcoin Season Index is currently only 37, far from the 75 needed to confirm the altcoin season. What does this mean? Money has started moving toward altcoins but hasn't formed a full resonance yet. I actually think this is healthier than all altcoins surging together. Now I'll divide altcoins into three layers: Layer 1: ETH, SOL, $HYPE This batch is the most worth watching. ETH is close to $2,500; if it holds back and breaks previous highs, it means funds continue to spread from BTC into the smart contract ecosystem. Although SOL pulled back today, it had already surged to a seven-month high, indicating it remains an important choice for funds seeking high-beta public chain assets. HYPE is even more interesting. It represents on-chain trading infrastructure and has recently remained a strong asset. The market has now already# BTC 80000, ETH 2550 Key Resistance Levels Chip Loosening Deep Analysis
>
Essence of chip loosening: The price surges into a historically dense cost zone, where **profit-taking + break-even selling + institutional risk control selling + derivatives leveraged selling pressure are all released simultaneously, while new buying fails to keep up with the selling intensity**. In the low liquidity environment of the Asian-European session, the price can briefly pierce the resistance level but cannot effectively hold above it. Once the US stock market opens and liquidity expands, the selling pressure is directly realized as a decline.
## 1. On-chain Spot Chips: Natural Selling Pressure from Cost Barriers
1. **BTC 80000 USD range**
78000-82000 is a supply barrier for the entire market, with about 8% of BTC circulating supply settled in this price range, and the chip concentration is highest at the 80000 price level within this range; meanwhile, the average holding cost of institutional holders of US BTC spot ETFs also falls within the 80000-82000 range.
- Some are institutions and retail investors previously trapped, who choose to exit at cost to break even rather than pursue higher profits when the price returns to the cost line;
- Others are short-term traders who bottom-fished at low levels and take mass profits upon reaching psychological targets.
- Asian-European session liquidity is low; a small amount of buying can briefly push the price through 80,000, but there is not enough incremental capital to absorb the large volume of chips waiting to be sold, so this is a “piercing of resistance,” **not an effective breakout**.
2. **ETH 2550 USD range has heavier selling pressure than BTC**
ETH chip distribution is more concentrated, with many DeFi participants and staking users having built positions and been trapped in the 2400-2550 range during the earlier market.
- BTC chips have gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, with costs extremely dispersed, so selling pressure is released in batches;
- ETH has many accounts clustered around 2500 cost, so when the price approaches, **a large volume of break-even selling floods out collectively**, and every upward push must absorb huge selling pressure, making the upward resistance significantly greater than BTC.
## 2. Capital Structure Differentiation: Behavioral Differences Among Holders
1. **Short-term holders (STH)**
Short-term funds holding coins within 155 days, extremely sensitive to profit and loss. After a rapid price surge, overall floating profits expand, and on-chain data shows a large amount of chips moving into exchanges ready to sell, forming the first wave of selling pressure. This group is not faith-driven long-term holders; they exit once target profits are reached.
2. **ETF Institutional Funds**
ETF holders’ average cost is near 80,000; when the price rebounds to the cost zone, some institutions execute risk control by reducing positions or redeeming shares, causing a phase of net outflows from ETFs, directly weakening the market’s largest incremental buying power.
>
> Key point: Institutions are not outright bearish; they rebalance portfolios and reduce risk exposure when the price returns to their cost line.
3. **Long-term whale differentiation**
Most early low-cost chip holders remain unmoved, but some whales partially cash out at key resistance levels, further increasing supply above.
## 3. Derivatives Leveraged Chips: Short Squeeze Ends, Chain Negative Feedback (Very Critical)
1. The upward phase is mainly driven by **short covering (short squeeze)**, with many short positions stopped out and closed, passively pushing prices higher. When the price hits 80,000 / 2550, all shorts that should have exploded already have, and short covering buying dries up, removing the main upward momentum.
2. A large number of leveraged long positions accumulate at high levels. When the price stagnates at resistance, stop losses trigger; a slight price pullback causes mass long liquidations, which themselves are market sell orders, further pushing prices down, creating a cycle of “chip loosening → decline → liquidation → further decline.”
3. Options market: There are many call options at 80,000 and 2550 strike prices. As the price nears these strikes, market makers hedge and adjust positions, adding extra selling pressure.
## 4. Technical Sentiment and Liquidity Mismatch Amplify Chip Loosening Effects
1. **Overbought condition**: BTC and ETH RSI enter overbought zones, market greed index rises, short-term bullish momentum is exhausted, and no sustained new capital enters to take over high-level chips.
2. **Time zone liquidity mismatch**
The piercing of 80,000 and 2550 occurs during the Asian-European session, where market depth is thin and small funds can push prices up; at this time, the real big money (US stock institutions) has not yet entered.
When the US stock market opens, liquidity instantly expands, and all the selling pressure accumulated at resistance levels is released simultaneously; meanwhile, the dollar flows back into US stocks, draining liquidity from crypto, **reducing buying and concentrating selling, turning chip loosening directly into a crash.**
## 5. Macroeconomic Expectations as a Catalyst
This rally priced in rate cuts and favorable US crypto regulatory bills in advance. When the price hits resistance, the expected positive news does not exceed expectations, and the market switches from “buying at all costs” to “taking profits on rallies.”
US Treasury yields rebound and the dollar strengthens, suppressing risk asset valuations, accelerating chip loosening, and causing previously hesitant holders to sell for safety.
## Summary in One Sentence
BTC surging to 80,000 and ETH to 2550 is just a price pulse under low liquidity, **without truly digesting the massive break-even and profit-taking chips in that range**; once the high-liquidity US stock trading session begins, accumulated selling pressure is released, combined with leveraged position liquidations, directly leading to a crash after the surge.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Meta stock price rises after massive settlement, risk pricing re-evaluated
The boss has something to say
This Meta matter is quite interesting. They reached a settlement with multiple US states over lawsuits regarding harm to teenagers on social media, agreeing to pay between 16.68 billion and 18 billion USD. The payment will be spread over several years, not a one-time payout. After the news broke, the stock price rose by 4 points.
The market is trading on the logic of risk clearing. Previously, rumors circulated about trillion-level sky-high compensation, which could even affect the company's operations. Now that the actual result is out, from a ten-year perspective, this 18 billion is a mere flesh wound for a company with a revenue scale in the trillions.
Meta plans to provision 10 billion in legal expenses next quarter, but this is not a one-time cash outflow. More importantly, the settlement eliminates potential larger tail risks. The market recognizes this logic.
However, to be fair, this is only a phase of risk clearing; thousands of lawsuits remain. Measures like restrictions on minors' usage will sooner or later impact user activity and advertising monetization efficiency. This account is not fully settled yet.
The nature of this rally is an emotional recovery after legal risk clearing, rather than a true valuation recovery, which depends on how much the core business is affected going forward.
On the market today, both bulls and bears took hits. BTC ranged from 78,500 to 80,000, Ethereum from 2,480 to 2,520; I reversed to short at 2,540. Took profits on the long position and entered a new short to play the pullback. Stop loss set at 2,580, target between 2,450 and 2,470. Around 2,550 is a four-hour resistance zone; previous two attempts to break through were pushed back. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs at high levels is low; set a good stop loss and try shorting.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Tomorrow we have PCE and a speech by Walsh; this trade is light position play, heavy positions will wait for directional confirmation.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.The core competition for $AMD lies in whether the decentralized procurement by cloud providers can translate into long-term software ecosystem stickiness. Hardware substitution demand provides the market with a secondary pricing space, but the software migration cost determines the specific upper limit of market share growth.
In the current computing power supply chain, large cloud providers introducing a second supplier to reduce dependence on $NVDA is the main driver of short-term valuation premiums. In terms of driving factors, the demand for supply chain diversification ranks first, followed closely by the actual adaptation and implementation of software tools and developers.
If cloud providers continue to expand the actual deployment scale of $AMD chips after the initial procurement, it will directly boost market confidence in the substitution logic.
At the same time, if the number of developers and software ecosystem tools grow synchronously, and model migration resistance decreases, buyer funds will restructure order growth into a long-term market share redistribution logic. In this scenario, the variable to watch is the continuity of customer deployment; a failure signal is when subsequent purchase volumes only maintain negotiation leverage levels without additional follow-up.
If subsequent news only consists of single orders without continuous adaptation by internal customer engineering teams and follow-up by software ecosystem tools, the upward momentum of the stock price will quickly exhaust.
This indicates that buyers only use the second supplier as a negotiation tool to control procurement costs, and the underlying ecosystem has not undergone substantial transfer. When the market confirms that migration costs remain high, the bullish narrative faces correction, with a failure signal being key customers reducing the actual deployment budget for alternative solutions.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on observing the actual progress statements of large cloud providers' engineering adaptation and changes in developer ecosystem activity after software tool updates.
#伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注ETH surged 29% this week, even stronger than BTC, but it's still at $2,490. On-chain data is quite magical:
Staking rate hit a record high of 34%, with 41.8 million ETH locked. Exchanges have withdrawn 1.74 million ETH over 8 months. The exit queue is zero—anyone can leave anytime, but no one is leaving. The entry queue has been waiting for 40 days, with 2.32 million ETH scrambling to get in.
With supply locked up like this, why isn't it flying?
Staking yield is only 2.61%, lower than US Treasuries. ETFs have been bought but the volume isn't enough. US retail investors aren't rushing in.
My judgment: scarcity isn't the catalyst; it's the condition that makes the catalyst explode more fiercely when it arrives. ETH is grinding between $2,000-$2,600, but once demand ignites, the explosive power will be considerable.
DYOR.
$ETH $BTC $BNB Why don't I simply consider $MU as a lower-tier AI chip stock?
Because $MU is focused on memory, and the most important factor for memory is not the story, but the price cycle.
AI servers do require a large amount of HBM and DRAM. When product supply cannot meet demand, price increases will directly boost $MU's revenue and profits, and profit growth may outpace shipment volume.
The problem lies here as well.
After profits improve, all manufacturers will consider expanding production. Once new capacity is released in concentration, supply growth exceeding demand may cause memory prices to fall, and the company's profits will quickly decline.
So when observing $MU, I focus on HBM orders but do not ignore the prices of regular DRAM and NAND.
If AI demand continues to grow and traditional memory prices also rise, this could be a relatively comprehensive memory cycle.
If the stock price keeps rising but spot memory prices weaken first, I will start to be cautious.
I am Yuvi. $MU's AI logic is sound, but the most dangerous time for cyclical stocks is often when everyone believes the cycle has disappeared.BTC (Big Cake) breaks through 80,000, ETH (Second Cake) breaks through 2550, followed by a collective plunge in US stocks at the open — a complete analysis
Core Phenomenon
In the pre-market phase of the crypto circle, BTC surged to 80,000 and ETH to 2550, representing an overnight cross-timezone short squeeze rebound; at the official US stock market open (21:30), US stock indexes and crypto concept stocks simultaneously plunged, and crypto prices quickly fell back afterward. This is a typical cross-market resonance sell-off, not a single black swan event, but a multi-factor resonance involving technicals, institutional portfolio rebalancing, macro expectations, and liquidity shifts.
1. Capital Aspect: US stock market open is the institutional portfolio rebalancing window (the most direct reason)
Unified risk control for ETFs and mixed funds
US spot BTC-ETF, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and other crypto concept stocks are included by Wall Street hedge funds and mutual funds in a high Beta risk asset pool, sharing the same risk control thresholds with Nasdaq tech stocks and memory chip stocks.
During Asian and European sessions: liquidity is weak, and a small amount of capital can push BTC and ETH sharply higher, a low-liquidity short squeeze, while US stock futures only slightly follow the rise.
At US market open, massive institutional real orders enter: many institutions, seeing the huge short-term gains in crypto, directly take profits, while overall risk exposure rises. To control maximum portfolio drawdown, they simultaneously reduce holdings in tech growth stocks, creating the phenomenon of “crypto rises first, US stocks collectively sell risk assets at open.”
Capital siphoning effect
Earlier rallies were driven by offshore crypto funds; after US market open, a large amount of USD flows back into the US stock spot market, withdrawing liquidity from crypto markets, causing crypto buying to quickly dry up, and the post-rally prices lack incremental support.
High-frequency algorithmic dumping + stop-loss chain triggers
Large BTC and ETH long positions accumulate at high levels; US market open triggers algorithmic programmatic selling, causing massive stop-loss liquidations in crypto markets; liquidation selling pressure further feeds back into market sentiment and transmits to US crypto sectors, forming a negative feedback loop.
2. Macro Pricing Logic: The rally has already priced in optimistic expectations, reality falls short
The main theme of this rally: inflation easing, Fed rate cut expectations, and US crypto regulatory optimism (CLARITY Act).
BTC above 80,000 and ETH above 2550 have already priced in most of the optimistic expectations for rate cuts and regulatory implementation within the year.
Key point: after the positive news is fully priced in, the market becomes extremely sensitive to negative news; no major bad news is needed, just the absence of new positive surprises causes bulls to take profits and exit.
US long-term Treasury yields: during the European session, yields slightly declined, helping push crypto prices up; after US market open, Treasury yields rebound, risk-free rates rise, directly suppressing all non-interest-bearing risk assets (crypto, tech growth stocks), while the US dollar index rebounds simultaneously, further pressuring risk assets.
Regulatory expectation constraints: the market speculates on regulatory benefits, but the actual bill voting is delayed, with no substantive progress in the short term; the optimism remains only at the expectation level and cannot sustain high prices.
3. Technical Structure: Profit-taking concentrated after high-level short squeeze
BTC 80,000 and ETH 2550 are strong psychological and historical resistance levels.
Much of the prior rise was driven by short covering and short squeezes, not continuous new spot capital inflows. After the short squeeze ends and short covering buying disappears, what remains is profit-taking selling at high levels.
The fear and greed index enters the greed zone, the market overheats, short-term chips loosen, and when faced with selling pressure at US market open, collective exits occur easily.
4. Market Linkage: Crypto = high Beta Nasdaq stocks, not independent safe-haven assets
From the current institutional perspective, BTC and ETH are not safe-haven assets but amplified versions of Nasdaq tech stocks, maintaining high correlation.
During the European session: limited liquidity allows brief divergence with strong crypto and weak US stock futures;
Once US stocks officially open, the largest global capital enters, risk appetite is uniformly repriced, divergence is eliminated, and risk assets are uniformly revalued.
In simple terms: at night, few crypto participants mean small money can push prices up; when Wall Street starts work, all risk assets are reassessed and previously pumped assets are sold together.
5. Distinguishing Two Common Scenarios
No sudden news, pure open sell-off: as described above, portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, liquidity switching, a technical correction;
If during the session PCE, CPI exceed expectations or officials speak hawkishly: macro negative catalysts amplify the decline.
Key indicators to watch for follow-up (to judge if it’s a short-term correction or trend reversal):
US 10/30-year Treasury yields, US dollar index;
BTC/ETH spot ETF net inflows/outflows;
Coinbase, MSTR crypto concept stock trends;
Whether BTC 80,000 and ETH 2550 can regain volume and hold;
Whether there are large-scale chain liquidations, as liquidation scale determines the depth of the decline.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC breaks 80,000 again, can it hold this time?
$BTC just broke 80,000 again, $SOL #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 simultaneously stands above $105. Déjà vu? It just happened two days ago—on August 25, BTC surged to $81,270, then fell back to around $79,000 within hours. Same script, will the ending be different this time?
What’s different between the two breakouts?
Similarities: The drivers are still the same three—Treasury expanding long bond repos triggering dollar sell-off, continuous ETF net inflows (last week $920 million inflow on the 1st), and short squeezes.
Differences: The first was a lightning strike—20% rise in three days, driven by short squeeze, came fast and went fast. This time it’s more moderate—a 1.25% rise in 24 hours, noticeably slower.
Can it hold this time?
Positive side: GSR believes above 80,000 is the new normal, market structure has fundamentally changed; spot ETFs have had eight consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $2.8 billion; institutions are buying, not retail rushing in.
Negative side: The real test is at 83,000—the intersection of the 365-day moving average and May’s high; 81,000-86,000 is defined by Glassnode as a strong supply wall; daily RSI is overbought, profit-taking pressure is accumulating.
The first breakout was a "false fire" caused by short squeeze, this time there is a more solid ETF buying base supporting it. But 80,000 is just a psychological barrier; the real watershed is at 83,000—only breaking above that confirms the bull market, failure to do so means a second short-term top.
If 80,000 is kicked open, then it’s a matter of whether it can hold steady. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh did some quick calculations and realized this isn't just buying gold, folks are actually voting with their feet on the US dollar's credit! 👑
The massive $40 trillion US debt mountain is pressing down hard, with the 30-year yield soaring to 5.3% like it's a joke. The US government is so anxious they've started buying back debt themselves—this move is basically the dealer protecting the market. Where else can money go? Can't just stash it under the table.
Huaan Gold ETF took in 9.4 billion in one week, Guotai Bosera and E Fund each raked in tens of billions, like a Double 11 shopping spree. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, gobbled up over 40 tons in August, and July saw a global net inflow of $3 billion, wiping out the outflows from the previous two months. Ray Dalio went even further, directly calling for a 10%-15% allocation to gold to hedge against the US debt crisis within three years—coming from the Bridgewater boss, that carries more weight than gold bars.
What's the slickest move? Previously, when US bond yields rose, gold had to bow down, but now both are rising hand in hand. Money flowing from US bonds to gold isn't speculation; it's a big asset allocation play.
For Bitcoin, this trend is definitely worth noting. Dalio's exact words were "increase holdings of gold and a small amount of Bitcoin"—note the "and"! When the world's most conservative capital puts gold and Bitcoin in the same portfolio basket, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative is no longer just hype within the community; institutions are revaluing it with real money.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Gold at 4590 USD, would you dare to buy?
First, look at the surface: up 20%, retail investors FOMO chasing the high.
Bottomed at 3940 at the end of June, then surged to 4697, with a cumulative increase of 13% in August, marking the strongest monthly performance this year. On Wednesday, it just hit a 3-month high, then a big bearish candle smashed down, dropping 1.4%. The candlestick tells you: overbought has reached the extreme, RSI falling from a high level, MACD bearish divergence faintly appearing, short-term overheating.
First thing: The Treasury's "dollar devaluation trade" ignited gold, but the market may have overdone it.
What is the core catalyst for this August rebound? Not geopolitics, not inflation — it's the US Treasury expanding the long-term bond repurchase program. The market interprets this as "fiscal-led + active dollar devaluation," and gold took off directly.
The new Fed chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. Will he tacitly approve the Treasury's actions?
But the market has already priced in the expectation that "Warsh will definitely be dovish." What if he isn't?
Second thing: PCE data remains sticky, rate cuts are not coming soon.
July PCE year-on-year was 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core PCE year-on-year 3.3% as expected. Inflation stickiness has not eased significantly; the market prices a 36-40% chance of a rate hike in September, and still over 70% chance in December.
Inflation hasn't dropped, the Fed dares not easily ease.
The market was too optimistic before, now starting to correct.
If Warsh leans hawkish, gold could directly break below 4500.
Retail investors are betting on "rate cuts are certain," while the Fed is saying "inflation is still high."
Gold rose from 3940 to 4697, up 20%, fully pricing in "rate cut expectations" and "dollar devaluation."
Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
That big bearish candle on Wednesday formed a typical evening star pattern — a top reversal signal. MACD bearish divergence faintly appearing, RSI falling from overbought, short-term momentum clearly weakening.
4520-4560 is the 200-day moving average defense zone and also the lower boundary of this rising channel. Holding it is a textbook-level pullback confirmation; failing it means a phase top.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Q2 central banks net bought 288.9 tons, a quarterly record.
August ETF net inflows continue, institutions are buying.
US debt at 40 trillion+ and de-dollarization, long-term logic is solid.
4520-4560 is double support of 200-day MA + channel lower boundary.
On the other side:
From 3940 to 4697, up 20%, seriously overbought short-term.
PCE stickiness + rising rate hike probabilities, interest rate path leans hawkish.
Warsh speech uncertainty is very high, risk of expectation gap is large.
Resistance above: 4640-4655 → 4680-4700 → 4780
Support below: 4560-4580 → 4520-4525 (200-day MA) → 4500 → 4450
Trading strategy
Short-term aggressive players:
Light short when rebound meets resistance at 4635-4655, stop loss 4670, target 4580-4560. Light long when pullback stabilizes at 4560-4580 (confirmed by 4-hour bullish candle), stop loss 4540, target 4640-4680.
Mid-term players:
If speech is dovish or ambiguous → hold above 4700 to chase long, target 4800-5000. If speech is hawkish → reduce positions or reverse if it breaks below 4520, target 4450-4300.
Gold's current trend is very much like the night before BTC's 2024 breakout —
99% chase at the highest point, then one speech breaks support, retail investors get cut, and then it flies again.
After Warsh's speech, you will realize:
It's not that gold is weak, it's that you always bet big before the direction is clear.
What's your gold cost?
At 4590, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $XAU $XAUT $AMD What really needs to be proven is not whether it can produce AI chips, but whether customers are willing to use its software ecosystem long-term.
Looking only at hardware specs, $AMD does have a chance. For large cloud providers, adding a second supplier can also reduce dependence on $NVDA.
But AI chips are not just about buying and plugging them in.
What software developers use, whether models can be easily migrated, and whether engineers are willing to re-adapt all affect the customer's final choice.
So $AMD's opportunity is not just that "the chip is cheaper than others," but whether the migration cost after customers switch suppliers is low enough.
If cloud providers continue to expand $AMD chip deployments while software tools and developer numbers grow together, the logic for market share increase will be more solid.
If there are only order news but no signs of customers continuing to use them, it may just be supply chain diversification and does not mean the ecosystem has changed.
I am Yuvi. $AMD has a chance to catch up, but the real battlefield is not only on the chip.The US is considering a new round of semiconductor tariffs, potentially expanding to AI servers and computers
Fact: As of August 27, the US government is considering expanding semiconductor tariffs, not only targeting chips but possibly covering chip-containing products such as data center servers, laptops, and gaming consoles; the plan is still under discussion and has not been officially implemented.
Impact chain:
Expansion of chip tariffs
→ Increased construction costs for AI data centers
→ Increased valuation pressure on Nvidia and tech stocks
→ Potential rise in inflation pressure
→ Limited room for Fed rate cuts
→ Support for US Treasury yields/USD
→ Gold and BTC face pressure from interest rates.
My judgment: Currently, it is only a policy discussion and not enough to directly change market trends. However, if the data center exemption is ultimately removed and the policy is officially implemented, the impact will be significantly greater than ordinary commodity tariffs because it directly affects the most important AI investment theme in the current US stock market. For now, treat it as a new risk variable rather than a confirmed Risk-Off signal.Charles Schwab is about to launch SOL trading, a signal far more important than just a few points increase.
This means $SOL is starting to enter the direct trading gateway of mainstream U.S. brokerages. Charles Schwab currently manages about $13 trillion in client assets, with an average daily trading volume of 11.8 million transactions in May. This marks the first time SOL truly taps into the traffic pool of traditional securities accounts.
Moreover, the market has already anticipated this: SOL recently broke above $100, rising about 9% in 24 hours, with open interest climbing to around $7.1 billion; last week, SOL ETFs also saw inflows of about $28.34 million.
So this is not just a simple “Charles Schwab listing benefit,” but SOL is transforming from a crypto-native asset into a mainstream U.S. investment product. The primary beneficiary is SOL itself, followed by SCHW—Charles Schwab’s value mainly comes from increased trading volume and client retention.
SOL is the most favored. However, the short-term price has already priced in part of this; open interest is rising faster than spot. Don’t just go all-in because you see the name Charles Schwab. If it can hold around $100, it’s actually worth continuing to watch.The peak of this bull market is likely driven by institutional funds and ETFs outside the US. South Korea still has no spot Bitcoin ETFs, retail investors cannot buy foreign ETFs, and companies cannot even open exchange accounts to buy Bitcoin. So far, Bitcoin adoption has mainly been concentrated in the US, but the next phase will be global institutionalization, accompanied by more stablecoin liquidity and the establishment of RWA mechanisms. More institutions will hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset, and many countries still lacking ETFs will find Bitcoin more accessible@懂币猫 The main theme of this round is very straightforward: $BTC After breaking above 80,000 again, the market's most common mistake is not missing the opportunity, but rushing to reach the top and using short positions to counter the trend when the upward channel hasn't been broken. He believes this round of rally is still within previous expectations. Of course, there may be spikes and shakeouts in the short term, but equating "rising too fast" directly with a top is not valid in trading. He summarizes the current Bitcoin structure as a multi-cycle resonance uptrend: no clear exhaustion has appeared on the two-hour, four-hour, or daily charts, and although the short-term slope is slowing, there is no real signal of decline. The previous night, after returning to the lower edge of the channel, it rose again, indicating the channel itself remains valid; When there are many counter-trend short sellers in the market, short covering may actually continue to fuel the uptrend. Therefore, while the trend persists, his benchmark choice is to maintain a bullish mindset rather than to go short at a "high-looking" position. However, being bullish does not mean blindly chasing the rally. He reminded that after breaking through 80,000, he did not continue to increase his position because his position was relatively heavy. The low long opportunities around 63,000 to 64,000 in early August should not be used as endorsement for today's chasing highs; Bottom and trading positions must also be separated; positions with existing profits prioritize profit protection, and new trades must have their own entry and stop-loss plans. For those not involved on the left, he values the breakout and confirmation on the right side of the 4-hour triangle rather than using ordinary resistance levels as a reason to short immediately. Resistance in strong trends often appears "paper": the price may first break out and then pull back, trapping midway to chase long or short positionsIs X Layer really worth betting on? I dug into the data.
Many people talk about $OKB, but few have seriously looked at X Layer's data. I dug in and found several interesting points:
1 TVL increased 10 times in half a year
X Layer's DeFi locked value exceeded $100 million, growing 10 times in six months. Aave and Uniswap have both deployed on it. This is not just an ecosystem on a PPT, real funds have come in.
2 RWA is the biggest highlight
xStocks (on-chain stock trading) is very active on X Layer, often accounting for over 80% of trading volume. OKX just launched a $5 million RWA liquidity incentive. To translate: OKX wants to bring traditional finance onto the blockchain, and X Layer is the bridge.
3 Stablecoin supply exceeds 2 billion
On-chain stablecoins are a key indicator of whether a chain has real users. A scale of 2 billion means funds are truly using this chain.
My judgment: Short-term optimistic, with RWA and trading scenarios gaining momentum. Mid-to-long term depends on whether incentive-driven traffic can convert into real users. If yes, X Layer has the chance to become a distinctive financial infrastructure. If not, it will just be another "exchange-affiliated chain."
OKB is the only Gas token for X Layer, with a total supply of 21 million. The more active the chain is, the greater the demand for OKB. The logic is very simple. 【Real-time Preview】 At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. This is also the last public statement before the September FOMC (9/15–16), less than 24 hours away.
Core Judgment—Short-term Bearish (mainly negative): Wash is a typical hawk, and the market generally expects him to reiterate inflation risks, keep the option of rate hikes open, and emphasize "higher for longer." If the tone is hawkish, real interest rates and the US dollar will strengthen, suppressing risk assets, with BTC likely to retest $77K–78K. The market has already priced in about a 78% chance of rate hikes this year, and the hawkish tone is basically priced in.
Potential Bullish Variable: The theme of this session is "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy," involving stablecoins, tokenized assets, and central bank digital currencies. If Wash signals a friendly regulatory stance toward crypto assets, it could be a structural positive, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall macro bearish trend.
Do not chase positions before the speech; wait for direction confirmation after 22:00. Holding $77K means the structure remains intact; breaking below turns bearish. $BTC The Fed's message is still worth being cautious about
Schmidt's point is actually very simple:
The current interest rates may not be high enough, and inflation hasn't dropped to the 2% target yet, so don't rush to think about rate cuts, and even tightening further is not ruled out.
This is clearly different from the market's expectation of a rate cut in September some time ago. Moreover, the July PCE came out as a reminder, with inflation year-on-year at 3.7%, still significantly above the Fed's 2% target.
For retail investors, there's no need to study too complicatedly; the logic is just one:
The stronger the rate cut expectation → the better the market liquidity expectation → the easier it is for risk assets like BTC and US stocks to rise.
Conversely:
If inflation doesn't go down → rate cut expectations cool down → US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → risk assets tend to come under pressure.
So don't get too excited about $BTC's short-term ups and downs now.
What really matters is whether the Fed will start cutting rates at some point, and whether it is necessary to cut rates again.
If this expectation really changes, the impact on the market could be greater than a single data beat.
The biggest mistake we often make is to start fearing when the market falls and start #FOMO when the market rises.
In the current macro environment, it's more important not to fully load your positions, keep some bullets; if the market really continues to rise, there will still be opportunities to chase.
But if rate cut expectations continue to be dashed, at least you still have chips to cope.
Never take rate cuts as something that will definitely happen.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ SOL今天又把100美元踩在脚下，盘中最高105.81，现价104附近，日内涨超9%。五月底还在60块附近躺平装死，三个月翻了快一倍，像是从地库坐电梯直达天台，中间还不让抽烟。 导火索挺荒诞：验证者正在投治理提案，打算把通胀下降速度翻倍，未来六年大约少印1890万枚SOL，折合十四五亿美元。手续费也要改，每天烧掉的SOL从650枚往七八千枚冲。印钞机还没关，先把油门拧小一半，市场立刻当利好狂欢。 华尔街这边也不闲着。Solana现货ETF累计流入已经超过12亿美元，七月链上交易量创下42亿笔纪录。一边少印，一边机构在买，空头八月中旬被清算了近1亿美元。这波属于“少发钱+有人抢着买+空头爆仓”三件套，价格不飞才奇怪。 当然别高兴太早。提案还得高票通过，验证者给自己降薪这种事，历史上不是每一次都投得下去。技术面上也偏热，100美元附近容易变成多空绞肉机。 一句话：SOL这次不是靠叙事飞的，是靠“以后少印一点”飞的。至于飞完会不会再坐一次电梯下去，那是后话。Just saw a set of whale order book data: four whales have placed large orders totaling $250 million on $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE, and $ZEC. With a volume of $250 million placed on order books that don't have particularly deep liquidity, this is enough to have a noticeable impact on short-term price movements.
Based on monitoring data, the operation pattern of these whales leans more towards "drawing ranges" rather than simply pumping or dumping. The main information is summarized as follows:
· Overview: According to TradingBeats monitoring, four whales placed 379 limit orders on $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE, and $ZEC, totaling about $257 million. These orders are distributed at different price levels and are interpreted by the market as marking "potential trading ranges before the next major volatility."
· $HYPE (typical "sell wall above"): Whale address 0x4e23 holds long positions while simultaneously placing sell orders between $99.03 and $110.74, with an average price of about $104.46. This operation of "holding longs but placing sell orders above" resembles setting a profit-taking range, implying strong resistance above in the short term.
· $ZEC (typical "buy support below"): Currently, $ZEC is quoted around $784.2, but whales have placed 100 persistent buy orders in the $500–$651 range. This means that even if the price drops sharply, whales plan to keep accumulating within this 17%-36% deep dip.
· Regarding $BTC and $ETH: The disclosed information only mentions that $BTC and $ETH are also included in these large orders, but specific price points and buy/sell directions have not yet been detailed in the monitoring data.
How to interpret this data?
This looks more like whales "casting a net and waiting for fish"—using order walls to mark the psychological price levels at which they are willing to buy or sell. Sell orders above do not necessarily indicate bearishness; more likely, they plan to take profits at those levels. Buy orders below do not necessarily indicate bullishness; rather, they intend to accumulate at those levels. Considering previous whale behavior of dynamically influencing prices via the order book, these large orders are more about creating "magnetic zones" to confine short-term prices within a certain range for strategic play.$CORE market trends often emerge from despair. Many say that CORE now has the perfect timing, favorable conditions, and unity of people, making it the right moment to build positions and plan layouts. But is this really the case?
The so-called perfect timing means the BTC-Fi sector is regaining market capital attention and overall market sentiment is warming up;
Favorable conditions rely on Satoshi-Plus's unique consensus, binding the narrative to Bitcoin's computing power;
Unity of people means after a long decline, many holders have cut losses and exited, leaving the market filled with despair.
However, we must distinguish between imagination and reality.
Perfect timing: sector recovery does not mean dividends directly flow to CORE; with many competitors in the same sector, funds will be divided.
Favorable conditions: no matter how good the technical narrative is, it still faces continuous selling pressure from long-term token unlocks, and the ecosystem's real users and on-chain revenue have yet to be realized on a large scale.
Unity of people: despair is just a market sentiment; sentiment does not equal a bottom, and despair can deepen even further after initial despair.
The so-called "perfect timing, favorable conditions, and unity of people all gathered" is merely a bullish subjective judgment, not a definite signal given by the market.
Please share!257 million USD large limit orders, 379 hidden orders — 4 on-chain whales have already drawn the "trading boundaries" for the next big wave of volatility in advance. These are not retail investors randomly placing take-profit or stop-loss orders, but major funds planting "liquidity dams" on the order book with real money. 1. BTC: 0xf517's 178 million USD "heaven and earth lock" Current base position: 40x full position leverage, holding 46.8 BTC long positions (average price $77,833.6). Lower support wall ($72,222 – $77,522): 4 non-reducing buy orders placed, ready to absorb 1176.9 BTC (about 87.59 million USD), 1.6% to 8.3% below current price. Upper resistance wall ($81,504 – $108,888): 171 non-reducing sell orders placed, planning to sell 928.3 BTC (about 90.025 million USD), extending to a range 3.5% to 38.2% above the current high price. Market signal: All lower orders are non-reducing, indicating this address is not afraid of downward spikes, even waiting for the price to dip into the $72,000 – $77,000 range to flush out high-leverage longs, then leveraging intense turnover below to launch a main upward wave straight above $100,000. 2. ETH: 0x469e's zone suppression and bottom fishing Current base position: 25x full position short 5000.The volatility characteristics of $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL show a clear stepped distribution: $BTC is the most stable, $ETH is in the middle, and $SOL has the highest volatility. Rather than being the same type of asset, the three are better described as investment tools with different risk levels.
· $BTC (Benchmark Anchor): Lowest volatility. For example, the 30-day volatility is about 29.89%, and the decline in 2026 is also the mildest (about 24.82%). Thanks to spot $ETF (attracting over $55 billion) and institutional adoption, it has become the "safe haven" of the crypto market.
· $ETH (Middle Layer): Volatility is significantly higher than $BTC (about 35% higher), with a 30-day volatility of about 41.69%. The intra-year decline in 2026 is about 35.49%, showing a performance that is "neither the best nor the worst."
· $SOL (High Beta): Highest volatility (about 44% higher than $BTC), with a fierce bull market rise (peak since 2023 reaching 11.8 times), but also the worst bear market drawdown (about 40.21% decline in 2026).
Core conclusion: All three have a high correlation with $BTC (about 0.72-0.78). Using them to diversify risk may have limited effect and is more likely to just amplify overall volatility. If you want to pursue "stability," $BTC is more suitable; if you want to seek high elastic returns, be prepared to psychologically endure larger drawdowns from $SOL. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈