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$AMZN The most easily underestimated aspect may not be e-commerce, but the relationship among the three businesses.
E-commerce brings users and transaction volume, AWS provides profits, and advertising monetizes platform traffic.
AI investment mainly happens in AWS, but its impact may extend throughout the entire ecosystem. Enterprises using more cloud AI services can increase AWS revenue; better recommendation systems may also improve e-commerce and advertising efficiency.
The risk is that building data centers requires massive capital, and customers won’t increase cloud spending indefinitely.
So when evaluating $AMZN, I don’t just look at product sales.
I look at whether AWS growth is accelerating, if profit margins improve after increased capital expenditure, and whether the advertising business can continue to grow.
If all three businesses improve simultaneously, $AMZN’s valuation logic will be very complete.
If AWS growth slows but capital expenditure continues to rise, the market may first worry about cash flow.
I am Yuvi. $AMZN’s strength is not just one engine, but whether three engines can work simultaneously.Just saw some data, quite interesting. Binance spot trading volume is now only 10% of the contract volume. In other words, 9 out of 10 trades are leveraged, and the number of people actually holding spot coins is pitifully low. No wonder the recent market has been so torturous, with daily spikes, surges followed by pullbacks, two steps forward and one step back — it's all contract funds playing games, with no real buy-side support.
Many people might panic seeing this data, thinking that weak spot means a drop. Don't rush, this data isn't meant to scare you, it's meant to set the rhythm.
Weak spot only means it's not a full-blown bull market breakout now, but it doesn't mean a big crash is coming. A contract-dominated market is characterized by lots of volatility, harsh shakeouts, and one-sided moves that don't go far. So my strategy is clear: absolutely no chasing highs, buy more in batches on dips.
Look at my ETH long at 2463, still holding, unrealized profit intact, I didn't even blink during the spikes and shakeouts. Why? Because I opened the position low enough, with liquidation far away, let it shake as it will.
A quick note on the market: BTC is oscillating at a high level, as long as 78000 holds, no problem; ETH is following the drop but not fully, strong support at 2480-2490; SOL is independently strengthening, a pullback to 103.5 is basically free money.
The key thing to watch next is when the spot/contract ratio starts to rise. The day this data begins to climb means real money is entering the market, and that will be the start of the main upward wave. For now, don't overthink it, buy the dips, hold tight and wait for the wind to come.
Alright, that's all I have to say, I'm going back to watching the market Brothers, it can't hold, really can't hold, the 80,000 mark has dropped again!!
$BTC just finished a round of "lightning war," violently surging 23% within a week from the low of about $62,400 on August 15, once breaking through $81,000.
And then? A slightly hot inflation report dropped, and the price gave back about $3,000 in a few hours.
Today BTC is oscillating between 78,500-79,000, unable to rise or fall deeply. It's like when a customer steps on the gas pedal all the way during car repair, the engine roars but the speed just won't go up—it's all just false fire!!
On August 19, BTC short positions liquidated reached $1.37 billion in a single day, nearly double the previous record in 2021. On August 21, another $739 million in shorts were liquidated.
In plain language: a large part of this 23% rise was not "someone wanting to buy," but "shorts forced to buy."The most important thing now is not to guess the top, but to see whether 80,000 can turn from resistance into support
$BTC current price is about $79,810, up about 2% in 24H, having rebounded more than 22% from around $63,500 in mid-August, but $80,000–81,200 is the first strong resistance ahead.
The real strength in this rally is spot funds: the US stock spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling about $2.8 billion; meanwhile, BTC coin-margined OI has actually dropped 11% to about 312,600 BTC, indicating the price rise is not crazily leveraged.
But the short term is already a bit hot: Fear & Greed Index at 80, 24H BTC liquidations about $24.28 million, bulls are starting to take profits.
My strategy: $77,500–78,000 is the first support, $75,000 is the strong/weak dividing line; if volume breaks and holds above $81,200, continue to watch $83K–86K. If it falls below $75K, reduce positions first. A Set of Hardcore Data｜How Far Is SOL from ETH?
Stop debating history repeating itself, just look at the numbers, the gap is clear at a glance👇
📊 On-Chain Revenue
2021 ETH Fee Peak: $4.3 billion per quarter, average fee per transaction $53
2025 SOL Fee Peak: $919 million per quarter
2026 Q2 SOL Fees: $51 million, a 94% plunge from the peak
Current SOL Fee per Transaction: ≈$0.0004, almost free
👥 Daily Active Addresses
BSC: 2.08 million (just surpassed SOL)
SOL: 1.9 million
ETH: 440,000
✅ SOL’s user base is 4.3 times that of ETH, but its revenue capability is an order of magnitude lower
💰 Market Cap & Value Support
ETH: Market Cap $210 billion + TVL $38 billion + RWA assets backing
SOL: Market Cap $60 billion + TVL $5.3 billion
✅ Market cap is 28.6% of ETH’s, TVL only 13.9% of ETH’s
⚖️ Fundamental Logic Difference
• ETH: Deflationary post-merge, continuous institutional ETF inflows
• SOL: Daily issuance ≈40,000 tokens, burn rate only 1.6%, inflation continuously dilutes value
Essential difference: In 2021 ETH was "too expensive to use, users flowed out";
Now SOL is "so cheap it’s given away, value can’t be retained."
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 📌 SanDisk teams up with Kioxia to expand production capacity—can AI storage demand support such a large capacity?
How big is the expansion plan?
Kioxia and SanDisk announced plans to invest over $31 billion (about ¥5 trillion) in Japan by 2032 to expand infrastructure and related technologies at the Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories[6][9]. Among them, Kioxia will build a third wafer fab (Fab3) at the Kitakami factory in Iwate Prefecture, with an investment of ¥1.8 trillion for this factory alone, expected to be operational in fiscal year 2029, mainly producing high-density 3D NAND flash chips for AI data centers[3][11].
How strong is AI storage demand?
The AI computing power boom is reshaping storage demand patterns:
- Demand multiplier surge: AI servers require 8-12 times the storage of traditional servers[19].
- Enterprise NAND demand explosion: Enterprise NAND demand is expected to jump from 283,000 PB in 2025 to 507,000 PB in 2026 and 681,000 PB in 2027, representing year-over-year growth of about 79% and 34%, respectively[25].
- Demand share increase: In 2026, data center/enterprise server NAND demand will account for 44.1%, and is expected to rise to 56.7% by 2030[32].#StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易
On August 27, 2026, the StarkWare team completed the first "Quantum-Secure Bitcoin" (QSB) transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet, marking the transition of quantum-resistant solutions from whitepapers to on-chain validation.
This solution operates entirely within the existing consensus rules, requiring no new consensus from miners or nodes.
The core idea of QSB is to replace elliptic curves with hash functions as the security foundation. Shor's algorithm is ineffective against hashes; even with mature quantum computers, hash-based schemes retain security margins. Specifically, the prover must brute-force search for a valid DER signature among approximately 2^64 parameter combinations. A single transaction requires about 6 hours of continuous computation on 8 RTX PRO 6000 GPUs, with a computational cost of roughly $75 to $200—while ordinary BTC transfer fees cost only a few cents.
This is an "emergency channel," not a daily payment tool. Its value lies in providing a backup solution for users holding large amounts of BTC who fear quantum threats, enabling them to securely transfer assets under extreme circumstances.
QSB complements BIP-360 (the official quantum-resistant address standard): the former is immediately usable but costly, while the latter is a fundamental fix requiring a soft fork and a lengthy process.
The significance of this transaction is that it proves Bitcoin can build entirely new security properties at the application layer without modifying a single line of consensus code. Although QSB is far from the final answer, it buys an "insurance policy" for the worst-case scenario—in the event quantum threats truly arrive, the Bitcoin community will already hold a playable card.
$BTC The top spot on the open interest change leaderboard is a bit exaggerated: OKTA perpetual contracts increased open interest by 1184% in 24 hours, nearly 12 times. 📊 As of the 19:31 snapshot: OKTA price +21.84%, while open interest surged, the funding rate was deeply negative at -0.6642%. In plain language: there are too many shorts; shorts pay longs every 8 hours. A significant part of this rally is due to short squeezes, not purely active buying with real money. The same scenario is playing out today with BICO: top spot on the spot gain leaderboard (+28.09%), perpetual open interest up 46.6%, funding rate -0.1527%, a highly similar short squeeze structure. My personal judgment: as long as OKTA's funding rate hasn't returned above zero, the short squeeze isn't over; but the deeper the negative funding rate, the higher the risk of chasing longs—once the squeeze ends without fuel, the pullback will be swift. The invalidation condition is clear: a noticeable drop in open interest plus funding rate turning positive, both signals appearing simultaneously means the fuel is exhausted. On the main board, there's a different kind of crowding: SOL leads the mainstream with a 6.82% rise, daily RSI at 84, BTC at 82, all heavily overbought. Whether to chase here depends on whether you bet on the short squeeze continuing or mean reversion. With a funding rate depth of -0.66%, do you judge this as the middle or the end of the short squeeze? The above content is solely personal opinion and data sharing, not investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. #OKTA# #BICO# #DataAnalysis#The world's second-largest ETH treasury address continues to increase its token holdings through staking rewards, with large institutional positions steadily growing, but the floating chips in the secondary market are continuously flowing to exchanges. ETH unlocked from staking keeps entering the circulating supply, and every rally is met with profit-taking by swing funds, maintaining long-term selling pressure above.
$BTC's dormant chips remain locked, with long-term holders' positions close to historical highs, holding their chips tighter; $ETH's chips are always in a state of liquidity, with more frequent buy-sell battles. The fundamental difference in chip structure determines that BTC's base is more stable, ETH has greater volatility elasticity, and in high market conditions, ETH's pullback risk is always higher than BTC's.
U.S. stocks, please drop, I am heavily invested.Is $TSLA fundamentally an automotive company or an AI and robotics company?
There is no single answer to this question because different investors buy into different narratives.
Those focused on the automotive side pay attention to sales volume, pricing, inventory, and profit margins. Those focused on technology care about autonomous driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and energy businesses.
When the automotive business weakens, bulls emphasize future technologies; when technological progress slows, the market shifts focus back to automotive profits.
This is also why $TSLA's valuation and volatility have always been significant.
My judgment is that the automotive business determines whether the company has stable short-term cash flow, while autonomous driving and robotics determine how high the valuation can go.
If automotive profits remain stable and autonomous driving starts generating real revenue, these two logics can support each other.
If automotive profits continue to decline and future businesses fail to commercialize promptly, the valuation will rely more heavily on sentiment.
I am Yuvi. Before analyzing $TSLA, first clarify whether you are buying current profits or future potential. The daily RSI of the four major coins is all overbought tonight, but none of the perpetual funding rates are hot — this contradiction carries more information than the price increase. As of 19:30 data: BTC at 79,431.7 USDT (+1.03%), SOL at 103.9 (+6.81%) leading the major coins. Daily RSI: SOL 84.1, BTC 81.9, BNB 80.7, ETH 77.0, all overbought. But funding rates: BTC only 0.0049%, ETH 0.0076%, SOL and BNB just around the 0.01% baseline. 📊 Plain language translation: Prices have pushed the daily chart into the overbought zone, but contract longs are not crowded at all — this rally is driven by spot, leverage funds have not yet jumped in. My judgment: the low funding rate indicates that potential correction pressure mainly comes from spot profit-taking, not leveraged cascade liquidations. This kind of overbought condition is more likely to be digested through sideways consolidation rather than a big bearish candle. As long as BTC holds 77,615 (24h low), overbought is not a problem; SOL surged with volume today, only a valid break above the previous high of 105.8 counts as confirmation. Invalid condition: if BTC falls below 77,615 and funding rate spikes above 0.02%, it means leveraged longs are chasing and taking the dip, then I admit I’m wrong. Overbought with cold funding rate — do you lean towards sideways digestion or a direct pullback? #BTC# #SOL# #MarketAnalysisWhy does $PLTR often frustrate the bears?
Because the market values it not just on software revenue, but on the combined worth of government data, enterprise AI, and long-term platform value.
Looking only at traditional valuations, $PLTR can easily seem expensive. But focusing only on the story risks overlooking how much growth is already priced in.
I believe the most important analysis for $PLTR is to distinguish two things: whether customers are just trialing the AI platform, and whether contracts expand after the trial.
If enterprise customers move from small-scale testing to long-term deployment, it shows AI revenue is not a one-time concept.
If the number of customers grows but the contribution per customer does not increase, the market may be overestimating the speed of commercialization.
So I wouldn’t short just because the valuation is high, nor chase the price just because the AI story is strong.
I will wait for contract growth and profit realization to see if they can catch up with the stock price.
I am Yuvi. The biggest bull case for $PLTR is sustained growth, and the biggest bear case is that growth must continue.Is this rise a bull comeback or a dead cat bounce?
From the market cycle perspective, this Bitcoin surge is a typical bear market rally.
Looking at history, during the bear market phases of the last two halving cycles, there were multiple single-day surges exceeding 10%:
In the 2018‑April 2020 bear market, there were 8 representative single-day rallies ≥10%:
Among these 8 rallies over 10%, only the last 2 occurred near the true bottom; the other 6 were all intermediate rebounds during the downtrend, followed by new lows after the rise.
In the November 2021‑June 2023 bear market, there were 7 representative single-day rallies ≥10%:
Among these 7 rallies over 10%, most of the first 4 continued to test new lows after rising; the last 3 were bottoming rebounds at the end of the bear market, with the bottom no longer making new lows, gradually transitioning into a new bull market.
Therefore, the bear market is not over yet, and this rise is a bear turning back to devour!Brothers, this wave of SOL has surged from the June low of $60 all the way above $100, a violent rebound of over 70%. Many are still asking "Why?" Let me break down the underlying logic behind this Solana surge.
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1. Macro level: The U.S. Treasury's "implicit easing" ignites the fuse
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases from $2 billion each time to $4 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield fell from the 2019 high of 5.34%.
In plain language: The return on risk-free assets declines, and money flows into high-risk, high-volatility assets. As one of the mainstream assets with the highest beta in the crypto market, Solana naturally becomes the biggest beneficiary of liquidity overflow. This is not a technical breakout; it is a resonance of macro liquidity logic. Bitcoin jumped to $71,500 within two days, with ETH and SOL leading the beta rally. $SOL $ETH $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Tok{In} weekly scan: Aug 17-23, 2026
502,938 tokens scanned this week, up from 315,459 the week before (+187,479). Fourth consecutive record week: 224,932, 301,791, 315,459, 502,938. Per chain, with each chain's own prior week: BNB Chain 405,431 (from 196,157), Base 43,036 (from 18,176), Robinhood Chain 50,587 (from 96,048), Ethereum 3,884 (from 5,078). 📊
The two chains that grew are not alike. BNB Chain's tax-mechanism share: 97.1% (393,616), up from 94.1% (184,594).
#DailyOrbit Cash session narrowed the post-NVIDIA breadth trade fast.
At 9:17am CT, $NVDA traded $226, +8%, $ARM $267, +6%, and $AVGO $367, +3%, while $SOXX traded $523, +2%. But $MRVL was back to $245, flat, $MU $924, -2%, $SNDK $1480, -1%, and $WDC $456, -3%.
That is a different tape from 7:32am CT, when $MRVL was +4% pre-market and memory was up 4%-5% after NVIDIA printed $96.2B of fiscal Q2 revenue, $89.0B of Data Center revenue, and a $108.0B fiscal Q3 guide.
#DailyOrbit 🌹$NVDA The truth hidden behind the earnings report: Nvidia may have transformed into the "central bank of the AI world"
Nvidia's Q2 data center revenue reached $89 billion, exceeding expectations; its $99 billion equity investments and "balance sheet as a service" model support AI customer expansion, with accounts receivable reaching $63.1 billion, and SB Energy's guarantee amounting to $108.5 billion, raising concerns about credit risk.How to distinguish between $WDC and $STX?
Both produce high-capacity hard drives and benefit from cloud data growth, so their stock prices often move together.
But when researching, you can't just look at the sector.
I compare the two companies' enterprise-level hard drive shipments, average selling prices, customer structure, profit margins, and debt situation. When industry demand is the same, the company with a better product mix and stronger cost control will retain more profit.
When the storage cycle is rising, both companies may look good.
The real difference usually appears after demand slows down: who needs to cut prices to clear inventory, who can still maintain cash flow, and whose balance sheet is safer.
So the judgment on $WDC cannot be based solely on "AI needs more data."
Industry growth determines if there is an opportunity; company operations determine who ultimately gets the opportunity.
I am Yuvi. When peers rise together, look at the sector; when the market weakens, look at the company.Profit-taking on $BTC went vertical. 7DMA realized profit ran from 130M to 1.3B in 10 days as price rallied from 63K to 79K.
- Realized Profit 7DMA (CryptoQuant, Aug 26): 1.3B, up from 130M on Aug 16
- Realized Loss 7DMA: -368M, down from -876M on Aug 5, over a week before price actually bottomed
- BTC Price: 79K, up 26% off the 63K low set Aug 1 and retested Aug 16
Realized P/L counts every on-chain move: sales, transfers, OTC deals. Not pure selling pressure.
#DailyOrbit $ETH has been trading in a range with a short bias, but the price keeps rising higher and higher, with a strong volatile uptrend? That's the most frustrating part. Heavy positions betting on a one-sided move need tighter stop-loss points, as both longs and shorts will be shaken out $BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Pre-IPO perps work best once a company has entered the registered filing process and is only days or weeks from listing. All five cases and HPC submitted to the SEC fell inside that window. They traded as IPOPs for just 1 to 25 days, and their final pre-open quotes landed within 0.44% to 7.23% of the opening price.
That window works because the information set gets richer quickly. The S-1 becomes public, the offering range gets revised indications appear closer to the bell.
#DailyOrbit If there are any highs in the various targets tonight, I think it might be a good time to set up some short positions.
If Wash adopts a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow, then the probability of a rate hike in September will increase by at least 15%. Because after that, only the non-farm payroll and CPI data remain as guidance. The Federal Reserve generally acts when market expectations are around 70%, which means there is still a 35-point increase needed now.$STX deals with what looks like traditional mechanical hard drives, but AI might make traditional hard drives important again.
AI models generate a large amount of text, images, and videos. Not all data needs to be stored on expensive high-speed SSDs; much of the infrequently accessed data ultimately requires cost-effective large-capacity hard drives for storage.
This is the value of $STX.
It may not be the fastest-growing company in the AI industry chain, but as data volume continues to expand, it could be an easily overlooked link.
However, hard drive demand ultimately depends on whether cloud providers actually increase their purchases, not just on how much content AI generates daily.
If large-capacity hard drive orders increase, product prices remain stable, and the industry does not see renewed intense competition, $STX's profitability could continue to improve.
If cloud providers delay data center projects, hard drive procurement will also be affected.
I am Yuvi. The logic behind $STX is not that hard drives become high-tech again, but that storing massive amounts of data still requires cost considerations.Saylor surprisingly didn’t go all-in buying coins this time: MicroStrategy is holding $1.6 billion in cash—what exactly are they guarding against?
MicroStrategy just sold stocks to raise over $2 billion, but what shocked insiders the most wasn’t how much they raised, but that Michael Saylor didn’t blindly convert all that money into Bitcoin this time. Instead, he unusually kept nearly $1.6 billion in cash reserves and even repurchased some of his company’s preferred shares.
People used to think Saylor was a fanatic who only knew how to blindly go long and max out leverage. But if you understand a bit about Wall Street capital operations, you’ll realize he’s actually very shrewd. Bitcoin has been tugging back and forth around the $80,000 mark, with intense high-level long-short battles like a meat grinder. If he recklessly threw every penny he had into it now, a 20% deep flash crash could immediately trigger short-sellers to target his debt default risk and aggressively dump the price.
Holding onto this $1.6 billion in cash cuts off the shorts’ escape route in one move. First, he can easily pay convertible bond interest for the next few years, so short-sellers can’t hope to see MicroStrategy go bankrupt or default. Second, with a huge war chest on hand, he can swoop in to buy cheap chips whenever the market crashes severely. This strategy allows him to attack or defend as needed, not only stabilizing his company’s stock premium but also anchoring the entire market.
Even Saylor, the biggest die-hard bull online, knows to keep enough cash for defense at critical junctures. So where do many retail investors, who are always fully leveraged and long, get the confidence to look down on position management?US July core PCE year-on-year 3.3%, unchanged from June, month-on-month 0.2%, all in line with expectations; overall PCE year-on-year 3.7% unchanged, month-on-month 0.2%, slightly above expectations. Above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months, inflation stickiness has not been broken.
The data itself is "neutral to hawkish": core neither accelerated nor cooled, service prices continue to push up, commodity prices fell.
Real consumer spending is flat, but income is stronger than expected, indicating demand resilience remains, but purchasing power is partly eaten up by prices.
Market probability of a September rate hike slightly rises to 36%-40%, with no change still the baseline scenario. The real focus has shifted to tomorrow.
The Jackson Hole annual meeting will be held August 27-29, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy," but global trading only watches one thing: Kevin Warsh's first keynote speech as chairman on Friday (Beijing time 22:00 on the 28th).
Since Warsh took office in May, he has deliberately compressed forward guidance and canceled the dot plot individual forecasts; the July press conference was criticized for insufficient communication. The few hard points he repeatedly emphasizes are: inflation is a monetary policy choice, the 2% target leaves no room for a "soft landing," and the committee has zero tolerance for sustained high inflation.
At the July meeting, three members already voted for a rate hike.
The market generally expects he will not explicitly say whether there will be a rate hike in September — this does not fit his style of "less on the path, more on the framework." A more likely tone is: to provide a reaction function. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $SNDK has high volatility when it rises, but judging it cannot rely solely on the increasing amount of AI data.
$SNDK is mainly influenced by the demand for NAND flash and enterprise-grade SSDs. The increase in AI data centers indeed requires more high-speed storage devices, which is the demand-side logic.
However, NAND products have a characteristic: the differences between products from different manufacturers are not as significant as with GPUs, and ultimately it easily returns to competition based on price and supply.
If enterprise-grade SSD demand grows and manufacturers maintain production discipline, rising NAND prices can quickly improve profits.
If everyone sees profits improving and expands production together, supply may once again exceed demand.
Therefore, I will not assume that $SNDK's profits will keep growing just because AI data is increasing.
I am more concerned about NAND prices, inventory days, long-term contracts, and capital expenditures.
Demand determines whether the market can start, supply determines how long the market can last.
I am Yuvi. When researching $SNDK, you cannot just count how much data there will be in the future, but also how much capacity will increase in the future.🤔NVIDIA surged 7% late at night, increasing its market value by $359 billion; earnings have exceeded Wall Street expectations for 16 consecutive quarters, raising investor appetite. The stock price has only risen 13% this year.
NVIDIA achieved revenue of $96.221 billion (approximately RMB 646.6 billion) in the second fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 106% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, surpassing analysts' estimate of $92.17 billion.
On a GAAP basis, NVIDIA's net profit for the second fiscal quarter was $59.688 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126%; diluted earnings per share were $2.46; gross margin was 75.0%, up about 2.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
NVIDIA stated that the gross margin improvement was mainly due to the improved product mix of Blackwell Ultra (AI GPU platform). $NVDA Every Chain Has a Signature Narrative. Here Is What Fills The Top 50 🔍 Chains compete on narratives, but the tokens with the most value on them tell the real story. We sorted the top-50 tokens by market cap on seven major chains into categories, and each one has a signature of its own. On Robinhood Chain, more than half of the top-50 tokens by market cap are memecoins, with a concentration no other chain comes close to. The category it was actually built for, tokenized assets, sits at just 12%.$BTC BTC surged from $64,000 to $77,000 in two days, an increase of over 20%
A violent rally in just two days, driven by a triple force resonance of macroeconomic tailwinds + short squeeze stampede + institutional capital inflows.
1. Three core drivers of the rise
1. US macro liquidity shift (the fundamental cause)
The US Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase scale, lowering long-term US Treasury yields and weakening the dollar. Market concerns about currency depreciation led funds to flow into Bitcoin, gold, and other anti-devaluation assets, warming the overall risk asset environment.
2. Rising regulatory expectations
Trump met with crypto industry executives, urging Congress to advance crypto regulatory legislation. The market expects the US to introduce friendly and clear regulations, driving a significant return of funds to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the strongest weekly net inflow in nearly 10 months.
3. Short squeeze, leverage-driven short covering amplifies gains
Prices rose rapidly, triggering forced liquidations of many leveraged short positions. The closing of short positions further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. In two days, billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated, and tens of thousands of traders were liquidated, which is the most direct booster of the short-term surge.
2. Huge risks that must be taken seriously
1. This rally is heavily driven by short squeezes; if buying momentum fails to continue, a rapid and deep correction could occur at any time. After a sharp rise, a sharp fall is very likely.
2. The coin price is highly tied to US dollar liquidity and US regulatory stance. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve statements, or US policies will reverse the trend.Bitcoin has recently successfully stabilized above $80,000, once surging to around $81,000 during trading, hitting a nearly three-month high and becoming a core signal of renewed optimism in the crypto market.
This round of rally is driven by three combined logics:
1. A weaker US dollar attracts safe-haven funds, restarting currency devaluation trades. Influenced by US fiscal policies and long-term bond repurchase expectations, the dollar is under downward pressure, prompting funds to allocate to hard assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against fiat currency purchasing power erosion.
2. Continuous capital inflow into spot ETFs strengthens institutional demand. The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen sustained net inflows, with institutions steadily accumulating and reducing market circulating supply, helping prices break key resistance levels.
3. Short covering accelerates the rally. A large number of leveraged short positions were accumulated around $80,000; after the price breakout, concentrated stop-loss triggers caused passive short covering, further amplifying the price surge. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will the Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
Before Walsh even speaks, BTC has already fallen below 79,000.
Tomorrow Walsh will speak at Jackson Hole.
Before he even opens his mouth, BTC has already knelt.
This morning in the Asian session, $BTC dropped below 79,000, retreating 2,700 points from 81,200 in three days. $ETH fared worse, falling from 2,566 to around 2,490, dropping even harder than BTC.
I still hold long ETH positions; I probably won’t sleep tonight.
What is the market afraid of?
Apollo Global Management predicts Walsh will lean hawkish. Last month, three committee members already supported a rate hike. Core PCE is still at 3.3%, far from 2%. If Walsh takes a tough stance tomorrow, this rebound might end abruptly.
But knowing his style—he most likely won’t give a clear answer.
Another key level to watch is 83,000.
Glassnode data shows a “supply wall” between 83,000 and 86,000, where early trapped positions are being freed, limit sell orders, and profit-taking forces overlap. On the ETH side, the 200-week moving average is pressing near 2,500, with the upper Bollinger Band between 2,600-2,650 still to overcome.
On one side, ETFs have had eight consecutive days of net inflows totaling 2.8 billion. On the other, Walsh might pour cold water on the market. On one side is the 83,000 supply wall; on the other is the recently surpassed 200-day moving average.
Still holding long positions but ready to exit at any moment.
Will Walsh ease up tomorrow? Can the 83,000 wall be breached? Both remain unknown.After the earnings report, crypto generally rebounded, but don't rush to call the bull market back. Looking at the structure: today $SOL surged nearly 10% leading the rally, ETH followed a bit, while BTC only slightly lifted — the mainstream hasn't broken previous highs, and money is flowing into secondary leading coins. I've seen this kind of "differentiation within a broad rally" many times: it's not a new trend starting, more like after a short squeeze fades, funds can't find direction and keep hopping between sectors. The daily chart is still stuck in extreme overbought territory, grinding below previous highs; those chasing the high should first ask themselves: can you hold? My approach hasn't changed — I don't chase rebound spikes, only heavy spot positions where I understand the market and won't panic if it drops. Are you fully invested now, or like me, holding some ammo?Breaking News: Preview of the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
The highly anticipated Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is about to be held in the United States. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond remains firmly above 5.25%, hitting a new high for the 2020s, which has led global investors to overlook the meeting's theme of financial innovation and instead focus on the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The Global Central Bank Annual Meeting began in 1978, gathering central bank governors, finance ministers, economists, and financial heavyweights in the small town of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to listen to the Federal Reserve Chair's outlook on the global financial system for the coming year. Historically, the event has produced iconic moments: Bernanke announced the second round of quantitative easing; in 2020, Powell introduced the average inflation targeting framework that led to soaring inflation; in 2023, he delivered the "black eight-minute" speech emphasizing aggressive rate hikes, causing a major global stock market sell-off. Now, the global market is all ears, fearing Powell might bring bad news.
This year's meeting theme is financial innovation, payments, and policy impact, with a core focus on introducing innovative methods in the crypto space, linking the US dollar with AI, shifting from the petrodollar to a new AI dollar anchor.
The market is more worried about whether Powell will mess up again like at the July meeting. Criticism centers on three points: first, he only talks about grand reform narratives without concrete guidance; second, he verbally shouts anti-inflation but does not mention rate hike tools; third, he openly and covertly emphasizes five reform working groups, hinting at possible changes to the 2% inflation target, which contradicts most members' focus on core PCE.
Powell is currently the Fed's sole reformist. Duke University professor Mead commented that Powell's emphasis on reform has not brought benefits but instead cornered himself. After the meeting, US bonds punished Powell, with the 30-year yield surging to 5.35%, even prompting Treasury Secretary Yellen to personally intervene to stabilize the market. However, Yellen's mentor Druckenmiller criticized in the Wall Street Journal that the Treasury's market intervention is antagonistic to the market and that it should first correct its own mistakes—an implicit jab at Powell.
How can Powell redeem himself? First, he should change his tough stance of refusing to provide guidance. With long-term yields rising, the market is effectively front-running the Fed's ambiguous rate hikes. A CNBC survey shows that 80% of economists want Powell to share more economic insights, an astonishing proportion.
Looking ahead, there are three possibilities: one, he delivers a grand narrative aligned with the meeting's theme to promote a long-term AI dollar strategy, which could worsen the US debt crisis in the short term but is less likely. Two, a balanced speech addressing both long-term policy and short-term inflation, clearly preparing for rate hikes, which is the most probable. Three, a direct hawkish approach, emulating Greenspan's 1995 model—telling the market that the tech revolution boosts productivity, so to prevent overheating, hikes come first, followed by cuts. This approach demands high expression and credibility, and it is uncertain if Powell can handle it.
The good news is Powell will read from a script rather than improvise, likely guided by experts behind the scenes. His speech at 10 PM Friday must be neither too hawkish nor too dovish. A smooth passage will calm the bond storm and lay the foundation for AI; any misstep could cause market turbulence until the September rate meeting.
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's earnings blew up, $MRVL also benefited, but tonight is the main event.
After yesterday's market close, NVIDIA released its earnings report with solid data: revenue of 96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%, and data center revenue of 89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The guidance for the next quarter is 108 billion, also exceeding market expectations. The stock rose 4% after hours, but the "post-earnings drop" curse for NVIDIA has lasted four quarters, so the real test will be the price movement after the official market open tonight.
Driven by $NVDA, MRVL is also up in pre-market trading today. MRVL will also release its earnings after market close tonight, riding this wave of sentiment, already up 4% pre-market.
Institutions expect MRVL's revenue to be around 2.7 billion, with full-year guidance of 10.7-11 billion, and data center accounting for over 80%. Marvell makes custom chips and network chips for data centers, with AI data center-related business already generating over 2 billion USD per quarter. Plus, NVIDIA previously invested 2 billion in Marvell, binding the two companies closely. NVDA's performance and guidance directly drive MRVL's order expectations.
However, MRVL's stock price has also been quite volatile after earnings in the last four quarters, rising as much as 14.7% but also falling 15.9%. Given the current high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio over 80, whether tonight's results can support this valuation is the key.
First, let's see how NVIDIA performs, then whether MRVL's earnings can sustain this momentum. Nansen data shows that about 990,000 wallets have cumulatively lost $3.8 billion on TRUMP. The revenue disclosed by Trump-related entities (such as CIC Digital) is extremely high—"The president is making money, while retail investors are footing the bill."
The fate of political meme coins is: news drives the price up, and selling drives it down. The essence of this market movement is that policy news ignited FOMO, while insiders are using liquidity to offload chips to retail investors chasing the rally. In this game, your opponent is not the market, but the project team, so don't be afraid.A reminder not to get misled by Nvidia's good news: the real switch is the Jackson Hole conference starting today, and then the debut of Waller on Friday. Why is Waller's appearance more important than usual? Because in the market's eyes, he is a potential next Fed Chair, and this is his first time speaking at such a major global central bank event. Whether he leans hawkish or dovish carries much more weight than an ordinary speech. Don't forget the background: July PCE inflation at 3.7%, still higher than expected, and the hard line on rate hike expectations hasn't softened at all. Earnings reports can make the market rebound for a day, but what determines the overall direction of risk assets is where interest rates are headed. $BTC is now stuck just below its previous high, waiting for these key figures to clarify their stance. I'm not fully invested this week, nor betting on a single direction, precisely because I'm waiting for this. Are you more concerned about earnings reports or the Fed?$BTC is oscillating at a high level, what’s next?
As of August 27, 2026, Bitcoin entered a high-level consolidation after a strong rebound, with several signals across different dimensions worth noting.
Technical: The weekly chart has broken through the previously sustained downward trendline lasting several months, and the MACD has started to turn upward. The first resistance above is at $81,233 (this week’s high), followed by the historical resistance at $82,000; below, the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converge densely around $78,700–$78,900, forming a core zone of short-term bulls and bears contention. Further down, $77,600–$77,900 is a strong support band.
Capital: ETFs continue to attract funds, with net inflows exceeding $650 million in the first two days of this week. BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributed $284 million, and total inflows this week are expected to surpass $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, spot order book liquidity is abundant, with 0.5% market depth reaching up to $9.6 million, far exceeding historical highs, indicating that this rally is driven by real buying demand.
Macro: The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, easing upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, the "currency depreciation trade" logic is heating up, with Bitcoin and gold benefiting simultaneously as scarce hard assets.
Sentiment: The long-to-short position ratio is 53.65% to 46.35%, showing little divergence and no extreme crowded one-sided market. Notably, on August 19, short liquidations reached $2.7 billion, setting the highest record since statistics began in 2021, significantly releasing short selling pressure.
Outlook: If ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is likely to challenge $82,000 upward, with limited downward pressure below $80,000; if spot funds do not follow, it may consolidate in the $75,000–$80,000 range, but even if it pulls back, the bottom will likely be significantly higher than the previous low of $57,000.
️#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Nvidia's financial report can actually be viewed in two stages: first, flaws in the report itself; second, the earnings call opening up future expectations. Going into the specifics of the financial report, the flaw in the first phase is a slight decline in gross margin. Of course, the official explanation is that rising memory and component prices compressed profits, causing a slight decline in gross margin. Although there are flaws, the overall earnings market is satisfied, so the stock price did not immediately rise after the earnings was released. During the second stage of the call, Huang boldly stated that revenue growth for the next fiscal year is about 70%, a conservative estimate, and even suggests a 100% possibility. At the same time, suppliers have pledged orders to increase from $119 billion to $279 billion, a 134% growth expectation, allowing the AI demand story to extend into 2027 and boosting overall market expectations. #财报观察员: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue begins to pay off. Therefore, Nvidia's Q2 earnings report answers three major market questions: 1. AI capital expenditure has not peaked; 2. The new flagship Rubin's order decline did not cause a gap in order demand; 3. Nvidia's growth has not slowed down; instead, there has been a short-term explosion. Therefore, this Q2 quarterly conclusion has solidified the current AI narrative in the US stock market and given the market more confidence. However, Nvidia's current breakout is not without future risks, especially on the order side. The Q2 earnings report revealed a significant surge in future orders, particularly boosting market confidence in 2027. But here's the problem: next quarter, the market will have to question thisEveryone is only focusing on how many points Nvidia's stock rose in its earnings report, but I'm more concerned about a few other signals: CrowdStrike rose 10% in one day, Salesforce rose 19%, marking its biggest single-day increase since 2020, and the cloud computing sector also collectively went up. What does this indicate? The AI narrative is expanding from "selling shovels" to "using shovels to dig for gold"—people have already bought into the computing hardware story, and now the market is starting to price in the application and software layers. For us in the crypto space, this means: those coins riding the AI concept can't just talk about computing power anymore; next, we need to see real revenue and practical use cases, otherwise it's just pure sentiment. While others are hyped about hardware leaders, I prefer to spend time thinking: where will the next wave of money flow to, in a more solid direction? What do you think the second half of the AI narrative will be about—software or something else? 昨晚比特币一度冲上八万美元关口，最高触及大约81270美元，但这一突破并没有持续太久，价格随后回落至79000美元附近，今天仍在继续走弱。这样的走势让不少采用马丁格尔策略的交易者来回受挫，仓位被反复打乱，情绪上也难免有些疲惫。 从盘面结构来看，这轮冲高回落其实并不意外。首先，短线空头力量在快速拉升中被大量清洗，市场上缺乏足够的被动买盘来承接价格继续上行；其次，价格短期上涨过快，积累的获利盘集中兑现，形成明显的抛压。两者叠加，八万关口虽然被短暂触碰，却难以形成有效站稳。 更值得关注的是，此前持续为市场提供买盘支撑的大型机构本周意外“停手”。MicroStrategy上周没有增持任何比特币，反而通过出售股票累计筹集约2.01亿美元，并设立了一笔1.59亿美元的新现金储备，官方说法是“增强资产负债表灵活性”。这释放出一个清晰信号：在八万附近，即便是最坚定的长期买家也开始选择观望，而非追高。 缺少了这一持续买入的力量，市场的边际买盘明显减弱，价格自然更容易在关键价位附近反复震荡。短期来看，比特币预计仍会在78000至80000美元区间内消化整理，八万关口已经试探过一次，但能否真正站稳，还需要观$CORE Many people don't understand why the core coin experiences so much dumping every day, with occasional massive crashes. Major mainstream exchanges delist core, all nodes withdraw, and the entire ecosystem collapses. First: The project team uses staked Bitcoin to produce core and sells these assets to buy back Bitcoin. Second: The staking site holds over 300 million coins in total, among which the project team themselves hold 300 million coins that users haven't claimed, staking them and dumping the daily generated interest. Third: What many newbies don't know is that since the year before last, the project team secretly changed the circulating supply, skyrocketing it from 100 million coins directly to over 1 billion coins. Overnight, the market inexplicably had nearly 1 billion more core coins. Older people in China don't use Twitter, but you can check Twitter for the most genuine global opinions on core. The project's anonymity was a premeditated escape route for a run. $MU babala is shorting MU again! #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
This time I opened a short at 956.
NVIDIA's earnings fully exceeded expectations, and MU opened directly high at 967 today, reaching a peak of 983.6 at the open. But such strong positive news couldn't keep the price above 980; instead, it quickly fell below the opening price and 956, currently retreating to around 930.
What I'm doing is trading the pullback after the positive news is priced in.
MU previously dropped from 1036 all the way down to 888. Although it has recently rebounded continuously, 980–1000 remains a clear resistance zone. Today, riding on NVIDIA's earnings surge, it was ultimately hammered back down, indicating that the profit-taking above hasn't disappeared.
✔ Entry position: 956
✔ First take profit: 945–938
✔ Main target: 910–890
✔ Break below 924: continue targeting 910
✔ Be cautious if it reclaims 960
✔ Hourly close above 967 basically invalidates the short logic
Now near 948 is close to the first support; I won't continue to chase shorts or add positions. Take partial profits at 930–920, then watch the remaining position near 930.
Micron's long-term HBM and storage price increase logic remains strong, so this is not a long-term bearish view but a short-term trade on positive news being priced in.
Positive news can lift the opening price, but if it can't hold, it just gives shorts a better entry.
babala can only make money by shorting!Why short $ENA?
First, huge volume meets sky-high price. Huge volume means a large turnover; the sellers are mostly VCs and project teams, while the buyers are mostly retail investors. This can be seen from address transfers, which are either primary or secondary distributions.
Second, in the crypto space, it’s all about accumulation, pump, and dump.
A hallmark of dumping is a massive volume surge after a significant price increase. If the asset enters the dumping phase, choosing to short is a good option.
Third, after a huge price increase, the chips have changed hands, largely replaced by impatient retail investors. If the price doesn’t rise, retail investors tend to exit easily—commonly saying they won’t play this coin anymore and will move to others. Once a drop happens, a stampede is very likely.
Fourth, look at Binance’s smart money data on unrealized profits or losses for longs and shorts. On the long side, there are many participants (crowded), and the losses exceed the shorts’ profits by an order of magnitude, which is incredible. If the longs lose so much money, the big players can easily push the price down, forcing longs to cover shorts and triggering a stampede.Listen to Brother Dao!
NVIDIA's earnings report exploded, after-hours first dropped then surged, this script is harder to predict than the Pharaoh's pyramid.
Brother Dao directly said, the data is indeed solid beyond doubt, revenue 96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center 89 billion up 117%, EPS $2.22, setting records for 13 consecutive quarters. But after-hours first dropped 1.3% then surged 4%, indicating that just beating expectations is no longer enough; the market wants to know "whether the software ecosystem can turn hardware premium into sustainable cash flow."
Huang gave two signals. For the first time, he provided a full-year advance guidance, expecting fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, far exceeding analysts' expectation of 45%. The per-gigawatt data center revenue opportunity increased from Blackwell's 25 billion to Vera Rubin's 40 billion, a 60% rise. Software revenue is starting to materialize, and this is the real excitement for the market.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The AI infrastructure ledger is becoming clearer, computing power is turning into quantifiable revenue, and the risk appetite across the entire tech sector will be pushed higher. Bitcoin, as the "ultimate expression" of risk assets, will not be absent from this revaluation in the long term.
Good trades are worth waiting for; the direction is already clear.
Follow the Pharaoh, wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SOL #EarningsObserver: NVIDIA beats expectations, software revenue starts to materialize
Brother Dao has spoken, savor it carefully Bro! $BTC slid back down to that $79,100 corner again. This afternoon was pretty intense, riding the Nvidia earnings wave, it charged up to $80,500 but then got pushed back down! The second time in two days it tried to break the $80k barrier and got slapped down, like hitting a brick wall.
I analyzed it and there are mainly two lines: the short-term surge was too steep, and insiders were eager to count their money. Back on August 15, $BTC was still holding at $62k, and in less than a week, it touched $81k at the peak, a nearly 30% jump. This isn’t a slow bull market, it’s a bull on stimulants. With this move, all the early trapped holders got freed, and those who bought at the bottom are swimming in profits.
The Nvidia earnings tailwind has passed and turned from a positive to a negative. Everyone knew Nvidia’s earnings were the highlight of the week, the market was already hyped and expectations priced in. When the report finally came out, the numbers were decent but didn’t exceed the already high expectations.
Tomorrow there’s still a $6.4 billion mountain of options ahead, both bulls and bears have to weigh carefully. Massive options expire on Friday, and the market feels like walking a tightrope right now. Today and tomorrow will probably see back-and-forth battles; before the direction is clear, whoever makes the first move gets hit first!
The $80k level is a tough nut to crack, enough to chew on for a couple of days. Both attempts to break through failed to hold, showing the selling pressure here is real. It’s not a bad thing to pause before breaking through to shake off the weak hands. After tomorrow’s big options lottery payout, the market will change hands, and that might be the real turning point. For now, just grab a small stool and watch the show, don’t rush in to be cannon fodder~If we understand NVIDIA $NVDA's business model in a minimalist way, essentially it's a card seller; the more cards sold, the higher the net profit margin, the more profit made, and the higher the stock price.
So, what determines whether more cards can be sold is simply whether downstream AI application demand grows strongly enough, and whether competitors also release cards that split sales.
From the current user experience, AI computing power demand is definitely strong; before ordinary people can easily access and call on computing power, it remains scarce. But whether this usage value translates into commercial value, and whether the stock price has already priced this in, is a subjective and divisive topic. This is also why Capex and financing capabilities are so highly valued by the market—after all, just praising it verbally is useless; money has to be spent to make it happen.
Meanwhile, more and more companies are starting to develop their own chips, and the Chinese market remains difficult to penetrate, which in reality limits NVIDIA's imagination for chip shipments.
From the technical structure of the market, this rise is still event-driven rather than a structural reversal. Currently, the straddle break-even range at expiration is roughly $197.67–$222.33, which coincides with the after-hours high, so I choose to short one contract. Only if the stock price completely breaks through the $225–$228 resistance can we look at the next range. And on the eve of a likely hawkish move by the Fed, shorting at high levels obviously has a better chance of winning. Trump Plans New Semiconductor Tariffs, AI Industry Becomes the "Price" — Storage Chip Stocks Face Short-Term Pressure!
According to insiders, the Trump administration is considering a new round of large-scale semiconductor tariffs, not limited to chips themselves but also extending to end products such as laptops, gaming consoles, and data center servers. Commerce Secretary Lutnick favors linking tariff exemptions to companies' chip investments in the U.S. to promote domestic manufacturing.
The contradiction lies in the fact that over 90% of advanced chips in the U.S. rely on Asian supply chains, and domestic production capacity is far from sufficient to meet demand. Tech companies warn that this move could increase data center construction costs and weaken the U.S.'s competitiveness in the AI field. The policy framework may still undergo significant adjustments in the coming weeks, with uncertainty remaining.
Short-term impact on storage chip stocks:
The tariff news itself is bearish, but Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings have driven the storage sector to collectively rise in pre-market trading. In the short term, AI demand sentiment outweighs tariff policy concerns, and the market temporarily chooses to "look at earnings first, worry about tariffs later." If the new tariffs are ultimately implemented, they will impose substantial cost shocks on the storage chip supply chain that relies on Asian manufacturing.
In a nutshell: Nvidia supports the sentiment, tariffs hang overhead — the hotter AI gets, the harsher the taxes.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 $BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ How will the Jackson Hole speech by Waller set the tone with the US core PCE flat from last month?
$BTC is reported at $79,887, up 1.54% in 24 hours, hitting a high of $80,026 before pulling back; ETH rose 3.32% to 2,536. The total market cap slightly dipped to 2.70 trillion. The price hovered around the 80,000 mark all day, waiting for Jackson Hole on Friday to provide direction.
PCE data landed neither hot nor cold: core at 3.3% unchanged from last month, the rapid rate cut fantasy is basically dashed, all eyes now on Waller’s first speech as Fed governor—dovish, risk assets breathe a sigh of relief; hawkish, liquidity expectations tighten. On August 28, about $640 million in BTC options expire, with capital concentrated around the 80,000 mark; the closer the price gets, the more volatility is likely to be amplified.
Structurally, after breaking the long-term downtrend line, the direction has shifted from bearish to bullish; currently, it is just a high-level choice within the previous high supply zone. Volume and price show demand exhaustion (volume contraction on the second test), but supply has not continued—this only indicates short-term pullback demand, not evidence for shorting; the structure at both large and small scales remains unchanged, and the pullback is just a correction within the structure.
There are two paths ahead to prepare for:
Waller leans dovish + volume expands and holds above 80,000 → target 82,000, wait for a pullback confirmation before entering;
Waller leans hawkish + breaks below 77,000 → pullback to dense support near 74,000, which is the high cost-performance zone to buy more.
In between: chasing longs is poor value, shorting against the trend is risky; the best solution is to hold positions and let the market choose its direction.
The structure keeps evolving, bullishness continues. The real risk is not the pullback, but giving up your chips before the structure breaks.
What do you think, will Waller be dovish or hawkish on Friday? Is 80,000 this time a buildup for a breakout or a false breakout? Share your judgment in the comments.Bitcoin returns to 80,000, Ethereum hits a six-month high
On August 27, the crypto market collectively surged. Bitcoin strongly broke through the $80,000 mark, currently at 80004 USDT, up 1.24% for the day; Ethereum showed even more strength, reaching $2566.26, soaring 4.88%, marking a six-month high.
Previously, Bitcoin $BTC had been trading sideways between $57,000 and $68,000 for three months. This breakout signifies the market entering a new phase. The main drivers behind this are threefold: first, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted nearly $2 billion over five consecutive days, signaling a major return of institutional funds; second, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling the repurchase of long-term government bonds, weakening the dollar and indirectly boosting safe-haven assets; third, the "Clear Act" pushed by the Trump administration and the SEC's new regulatory framework have injected policy optimism into the market.
Regarding Ethereum $ETH, besides being driven by Bitcoin, its spot ETF also recorded strong net inflows, leading to a double boost and outperforming gains.
However, Bitcoin faces strong supply pressure between $80,000 and $82,000, and short-term bullish and bearish battles may intensify. Overall, market sentiment has shifted from panic to extreme greed. With both leading coins breaking through simultaneously, the short-term heat in the crypto market is evident, but chasing the highs still requires caution.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 NVIDIA is just the first half of this week; the real second half switch is the upcoming Jackson Hole and Powell's speeches. Don't be fooled by the rebound after earnings on the market; the macroeconomic line hasn't loosened at all: July PCE inflation at 3.7% exceeded expectations, oil prices have rebounded again, and the market's pricing for a September rate hike is still rising. Against this backdrop, I always question the voices saying "all bad news is priced in, go all in" on the timeline. Chasing high-risk assets in a rate hike cycle is like sitting at a poker table knowing your opponent is raising and still hoping to catch a straight by luck. My approach is simple: don't go all in or bet on direction before the event concludes; save your bullets until the cards on the table are clear.