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"Ethereum L2 Sequencer Gross Profit Soars: The Business Reality After Blob Cuts Costs by 90% and the L1 Value Dilemma"
The introduction of Blob storage has caused the on-chain cost of Layer 2 networks to plummet by over 90%, but most networks have not fully passed the savings back.
Sequencers can bundle hundreds or thousands of transactions and submit them to the mainnet for just a few cents, directly pushing their overall operating gross margin above 80%.
Currently, most Layer 2 network sequencers are controlled solely by official teams, with priority fees and arbitrage spreads entirely retained on private servers.
Layer 2 networks handle 70-80% of the high-frequency transactions across the entire network daily, generating huge cash flow, yet the toll fees paid back to the mainnet are pitifully low.
The mainnet bears the underlying security guarantees and consensus costs, and how each network allocates toll fees is becoming the most direct dividing line within the ecosystem camps. $ETH With the same hawkish speech, $BTC dropped 4.7% and $ETH dropped 6.3%. Why is ETH weaker?
The core reason is a shift in capital preference. In this rebound, BTC rose 12.5% from 72458 to 81500, while ETH only rose 7% from 2400 to 2566, meaning ETH underperformed BTC. Institutional funds prioritize BTC when flowing back, marginalizing ETH.
Why don't institutions choose ETH? First, ETF funds only go into BTC; ETH lacks a spot ETF for continuous buying. Second, ETH staking yields have declined, with stETH annualized yield dropping from 5% to below 3%, reducing its attractiveness. Third, the L2 ecosystem has diverted value from the ETH mainnet, gas fees remain low, and on-chain activity is weaker than before.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently around 0.031, already at a yearly low. If the rate continues to weaken, ETH will be even weaker relative to BTC. In terms of trading, it's better to go long on BTC than ETH; if you must trade ETH, take a light position around 2400-2420 to bet on a rebound, set a stop loss at 2380, and target 2460-2480. Don't be greedy.#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
$SPCX $BTC $ETH $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOL To be honest, the 80,000 level is weaker than I expected.
It just climbed above it the day before yesterday, and today it was pressed back to 77,000, dropping 3% in 24 hours. Why? On-chain data shows that nearly 8% of the circulating supply is stuck in the 80,000-82,000 range, all previously trapped waiting to be freed. It’s no surprise that two consecutive attempts to break 81,500 were pushed back.
What really alerted me was gold. After Wash’s speech, gold plummeted $120, breaking below 4500, and BTC almost simultaneously plunged. Grayscale data shows their 90-day correlation has surged above 50%, while correlation with the Nasdaq dropped to 33%. I used to think “digital gold” was just a story, but since US debt broke 40 trillion, the market is indeed repricing fiat credit. BTC and gold are tied to the same rope, and it’s becoming increasingly obvious.
Short-term focus is locked on 76,500-77,000. If it holds, see the pullback as an opportunity; if it truly breaks, the logic of this rally needs to be reconsidered.
#DailyOrbit Pig Butchering Scam 2.0? I went short directly!
Checked $TRUMP, it actually dared to reach $3! Decisively short short short!
My short position logic:
1. Political expectation gap: Trump loudly claims certain victory, but polls hit a new low at only 33%, with nationwide negative approval ratings. The more aggressive the claims, the more hollow the reality; the narrative can't support the coin price.
2. "Pig Butchering Scam" background: The coin dropped from 73 to 2.7, a 96% decline, investors cumulatively lost 4.7 billion, while the family profited 1.4 billion. 900,000 tokens unlock daily, internal cashing out never stops.
3. Technical overheating: Violently surged from 1.37 to 3.6 in 10 days, RSI severely overbought, current price 2.7~2.8 is a secondary rebound, volume has shrunk, high probability of reverting to the mean.
4. Ironclad evidence of internal dumping: After rumors pumped the price, related wallets quickly cashed out over $9 million, son’s denial immediately caused a crash, clearly a cut of retail investors.
Position: Short, average price 2.941, forced liquidation at 3.896, 10x leverage, margin 5.44U, current floating profit about 75%. Stop loss strictly set above forced liquidation price, no holding through losses.
Follow-up focus: The bill vote on September 15 may cause disturbance, but the big picture shows narrative fading and value returning. Consider adding positions if it breaks below 2.5, otherwise hold and wait.
# The core logic of this bull market has changed.
Two weeks ago, I still thought it was just an emotional recovery after a deep drop, but the market has been giving continuous signals these days, and I have completely changed my judgment: the underlying logic of this bull market is undergoing a transformation.
Policy is the catalyst, but the real driver of the market is incremental capital. $BTC has surged back above $80,000, and $ETH has stabilized above $2,500. This strength is hard to sustain by retail investors alone. Institutions like BlackRock are continuously allocating through ETFs, with real money entering the market rather than short-term speculative trades.
What’s even more noteworthy is the stablecoin side. Circle and Tether continue to expand issuance, with USDT’s market cap surpassing $180 billion, clearly increasing market liquidity. Meanwhile, whales keep transferring chips into cold wallets, and funding rates have turned positive again, indicating a rapid recovery in market risk appetite.
This rally is not exactly the same as in 2021; not all altcoins are going crazy together. Instead, policy, institutions, and liquidity are forming a synergy, with capital prioritizing core assets like BTC and ETH. BTC reaching new highs is, in my view, just a matter of time, and ETH challenging $5,000 is also not impossible.
Of course, the higher it goes, the more cautious we must be. The focus now is on two things: the progress of the CLARITY Act and whether ETF inflows can continue.
As long as these two main lines do not weaken significantly, the trend is unlikely to end easily.
Bear brothers, you really need to be careful from now on
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Evercore raised the $AMZN target price from $315 to $355, confirming the monetization capability of Agentic AI, but valuation compression caused by liquidity tightening and profit margin fluctuations due to high investment are creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The core of market trading lies in the pricing difference of capital regarding AI monetization efficiency and profit margins. Surveys show that 57% of Alexa AI users purchased previously unknown products, and this incremental conversion rate has re-anchored the market's discount rate on AI R&D investment.
The primary driving factor is the pull on cash flow from logistics fulfillment and user stickiness. The regular same-day delivery usage rate has rebounded to 49%, and Prime same-day delivery user spending is 3.1 times that of non-Prime users. This historically peak-expanded spending multiple significantly boosts the judgment of single-user lifetime value.
The secondary driving factor is the penetration expansion of high-frequency consumption scenarios. 46% of respondents added fresh groceries to their cart after seeing Perishable Checkout, and this conversion rate means fresh categories are becoming a key touchpoint driving overall retail GMV.
The upside scenario trigger condition is an overall rise in market risk appetite and controlled fresh logistics costs. When Amazon's penetration rate maintains a high level of 92% (34 percentage points ahead of the second place) while keeping gross margin stable, the trading desk will reprice its valuation premium. It is necessary to observe Federal Reserve policy expectations and quarterly profit margin changes. If penetration falls further below 90%, this upside logic fails.
The downside scenario trigger condition is renewed inflation pressure leading to intensified macro liquidity tightening, while high-frequency delivery costs erode short-term operating profits. When risk appetite is under pressure, large-cap stock positions will face structural reductions. It is necessary to observe technology stock position adjustments and capital expenditure guidance. If same-day delivery spending multiples remain above 3.0 times, the downside squeeze will stop falling.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the flow trends of large-cap tech stock positions under the macro risk appetite transmission mechanism and changes in fresh fulfillment costs.
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款$SUI shorted from 0.7858 to 0.7387, 50x leverage with a floating profit of 299.69%.
Before opening the position, on-chain data showed that about 66.97 million SUI tokens (approximately $247 million) were unlocked in the past 7 days, causing the circulating supply to surge by 1.94%. More critically, over 400 million tokens will be linearly released in the next month, and 96% of the unlocked tokens flowed into exchange hot wallets.
This continuous and unhedged massive selling pressure expectation severely undermined market confidence, causing a fatal crack in the bullish logic. After the price stalled at a high level, decisively followed up with a short at 0.7858.
Near the current price, 90% of the position was reduced to lock in profits, pocketing a large sum. A very small defensive position is set at 0.77; if it doesn't break, continue holding. $SOL $TRUMP If tonight's Jackson Hole turns into a hawkish speech, then the entire market rebound script will be completely ruined. Have you noticed that the recent rally isn't propped up by buying at all, but by "no one dares to sell"? At 10 p.m. tonight, Wash's tone at Jackson Hole has already been priced in by the market: inflation hasn't improved, the 2% target is unshakable, and the probability of a rate hike has been pushed straight to 50%. Plus, the nonfarm payroll data was revised down by 79,000, below expectations, so the bulls are essentially being pinned down in double friction. Some friends in my social circle have already posted crying emojis, saying they've lost all their bottoms. With the data out, the bears can indeed laugh happily today. BTC has slid straight down from 81,500, dropping $2,800 in three days, with an RSI (6) at 19.5—a value historically that usually means oversold territory, with a technical rebound ready at any moment. But the question is, who dares to take the knife at this level? If Wash says something tough in the middle of the night, the momentum of the rebound could be swallowed up. ETH is even worse, breaking below the psychological 2500 threshold and closing at 2481. The BOLL lower band is at 2479; if it goes any lower, it means a complete breakout. The current bullish mentality is similar to the day of the breakup—saying it's fine, but actually bleeding inside. Gold hasn't escaped either, falling from 4633 to 4562. When rate hike expectations heat up, the first to be hammered are non-yielding assets. But what I want to talk about is not these numbers themselves, but the gap between sectors. In this round of decline,Wash's "Jackson Hole" speech is over,
Will the Fed have to hike in September even if it doesn't want to?
Hawkish debut: Market quickly prices in September rate hike expectations
At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Wash clearly stated: the 2% inflation target is "unwavering," current financial conditions are "hard to say are restrictive," and recent data is insufficient to prove substantial inflation improvement. He set the action threshold: if there is no confidence that inflation is rapidly falling, the Fed "still has work to do."
Market reaction was intense: the two-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points in a single day, the largest annual meeting volatility since 2010; the dollar strengthened, and gold $XAU and $BTC retreated. Federal funds futures show the probability of a September hike rose from 35% to over 50%. Barclays and Societe Generale quickly adjusted forecasts that day, expecting 25 basis points hikes in both September and December.
Hawkish correction: wrapping up the "communication mishap" from July
The market generally views this speech as a hawkish "correction" to the July meeting. In July, Wash shook market confidence by questioning the accuracy of the preferred inflation indicator, causing long-end yields to surge. This time he did four key things: reaffirmed the 2% target; acknowledged the central bank is fully responsible for inflation overshoot; clarified that rates are the main tool; and for the first time admitted financial conditions are not restrictive (i.e., rates are not high enough).
JPMorgan Asset Management called this a "wrap-up correction" of the July mistake. However, Wash still refuses to provide forward guidance, with some analysts joking: "Investors want GPS, but Wash only gave a compass."
Institutional divergence: coexistence of shifts and opposition
Shifters: Barclays and Societe Generale expect 25 basis points hikes in September and December; Natixis believes the possibility of hikes was previously underestimated.
Opponents: Wolfe Research, considering White House political pressure, sets September probability slightly below 50%; MUFG warns to beware the old tune of "hawkish expectations heating up but actual inaction."
September suspense: data is the threshold, credibility is the stake
Aberdeen's investment director bluntly said: "If there is no hike in September, Wash's credibility will take another hit." If data does not improve and no action is taken, the market will question the hawkishness's substance. The key variable is the August CPI released on September 11—an unexpected decline will cool calls for hikes, while an unexpected rise will almost lock in a hike (current PCE year-over-year is 3.7%).
Coupled with nearly $2 trillion deficit and energy price pressures, Wells Fargo judges that even if there is no move in September, hikes are very likely within the year. As "New Fed Communications Agency" Timiraos said: the Fed may not be done fighting inflation yet. Wash's ultimate test becomes a tough question—if the data doesn't cooperate, is he willing to turn the hawkish diagnosis into an actual rate hike?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 $SNXX shorted from 15.3 to 12.91, 20x leverage with a floating profit of 312.41%.
Recently, the SNX protocol passed SIP-423 to abandon the de-pegged sUSD stablecoin, converting its debt into SNX tokens for repayment (1 sUSD exchanged for 4 SNX).
This directly caused the market to face a huge supply inflation suspension of about 29.3 million SNX. Despite the lock-up period, the expectation of a flood of cheap chips in the future severely hit market valuation confidence. Meanwhile, the protocol's daily income is extremely low, making it difficult to offset dilution through buybacks.
Before opening the position, closely watch for worsening tokenomics signals; decisively followed up at 15.3. The floating profit was substantial, immediately reducing the position by 90% to take profits. Maintain a very small position to defend at 14.5; if it doesn't break, continue holding. $SOL $TRUMP 🦅 Federal Reserve Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole sent a clear hawkish signal.
Three key points in three sentences:
1. The U.S. economy may be stronger than the market expects;
2. AI investment could bring a new round of productivity growth;
3. Inflation remains significantly above the 2% target.
Before the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September was about 35%, rising to over 60% after the speech.
This position is truly hot to handle: if they hold back, the exchange rate collapses; rate hikes cause U.S. Treasury bonds to crash; rate cuts cause inflation to collapse.I actually spend very little time watching the market every day; most of my time is focused on real-time news in the market, the movements of smart money, interest rate hike expectations, and so on.....
Yesterday's speech by Walsh is here, so I won't say much more; I guess you all already have a pretty good understanding.
There is one thing I want to talk about, which is the interest rate hike expectations!
Yesterday, the interest rate hike expectation peaked at 61.5%, and as of today, it has dropped to 57%.
Here’s my view: this is exactly what Walsh wants to see. Without any forward guidance, he lets the market guess! Just like I said before, his speech would definitely push the interest rate hike expectations up, trying to make it a 5:5 split. This is not hindsight; it was mentioned in my previous posts, you can check them out.
But have you noticed? Despite such a hawkish speech and the interest rate hike expectations soaring so high, the market reaction wasn’t very strong! First, $ETH held the key 2400 level and didn’t plunge dramatically; secondly, $BTC also held the key 77000 level. Personally, I think these are very good signals.
Just like I said before, with rising interest rate hike expectations, the market price won’t have large fluctuations. The September interest rate policy will maintain the rate unchanged, which would be a big positive, right???
Then the most critical point coming up is to see whether ETF net inflows can continue on Monday. I’m not expecting an increase in quota, but it needs to remain stable. If so, there will be a price floor.When $BTC experiences a pullback, I actually don’t immediately turn bearish.
The more it has risen before,
the more normal it is for profit-taking to occur afterward.
What really deserves attention now is:
After BTC drops from its high,
whether the retracement is getting deeper.
If it’s just a slight dip followed by a new rise:
➡️ This is a normal consolidation.
If every rebound is lower than the previous one:
➡️ The short-term trend is starting to weaken.
So don’t panic just because you see a red candle on BTC.
What you really need to watch out for is “it doesn’t fall back, but it’s increasingly unable to rise.”The market has finally reacted.
Now gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks are weakening again in sync, and US stocks are also showing signs of further decline. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has hit a new short-term high, indicating the market is repricing rate hike expectations.
From the current market performance, the signals released by this meeting are still hawkish.
The biggest trouble for the market is not just a simple rate hike, but a sudden change in expectations.
Originally, everyone might have been expecting a rate cut, but now they are starting to trade "higher rates, stronger dollar" again, so risk assets naturally come under pressure.
Gold down, BTC down, US stocks also weakening—all actually reflect the same issue: liquidity expectations are tightening.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish now; first observe whether the dollar, USD/JPY, and US stocks can stop falling.
If rate hike expectations continue to heat up, short-term pressure on BTC may not be fully released yet.
Some things can be understood as both positive and negative, so before the market truly gives an answer, I prefer to treat it as a risk rather than an opportunity.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 ETF fund data on August 28 showed an interesting divergence that is worth pondering. Yesterday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.81 million. Even BlackRock's IBIT saw capital withdrawals, with a single day outflow of 430 BTC, equivalent to $33.4 million. ARKB was the main outflow. On the other hand, Ethereum ETFs saw a large net inflow, totaling $10.217 billion in a single day. Blackstone alone contributed $8.379 billion. The inflow and outflow indicate clear internal divisions among institutions. Some funds choose to temporarily cash out Bitcoin profits and then shift to Ethereum. However, there is no need to panic excessively about a single outflow. One day's data cannot be classified as a collective institutional exit; it is necessary to observe the next 2-3 trading days to see if the outflows form a trend. There is also a long-term signal worth noting: Grayscale points out that Bitcoin's asset nature is changing. In the past, Bitcoin's price was highly tied to US tech stocks, but now its correlation with gold is steadily increasing, gradually transforming into "digital gold" hedged against U.S. debt and fiscal risks. Simply put, the logic is this: the U.S. debt issue is once again being hotly discussed in the market. More and more institutions no longer treat Bitcoin purely as a tech speculative stock, but as a safe-haven asset resistant to depreciation. This is a slow, long-term change that will not immediately be reflected in short-term market trends but will gradually shift its valuation center. Overall, the market is currently in a phase of bullish and bearish tug-of-war. In the short term, there is an index outflow zone🚨 A cluster of positive news, so why is $BTC still falling?
The crypto market has indeed been flooded with news these past two days.
U.S. strategic reserves, continuous net inflows into BTC ETFs, ongoing institutional allocations, and even large whale purchases of ETH. Looking at the news alone, market sentiment should be very optimistic.
But interestingly, BTC still fell below $77,000, with massive liquidations of leveraged positions.
This precisely shows that the real issue in the market now is not "whether there is good news," but whether the good news can be converted into sustained buying pressure.
Continuous ETF inflows are good, institutional buying is good, but if short-term contract leverage is too high, a rapid drop can trigger a chain liquidation, pushing prices down further.
So I won’t immediately conclude the market will take off just because I see a big positive news.
Instead, I pay more attention to:
Continuous good news → price still can’t rise;
Funds keep flowing in → pullbacks get shallower;
Leverage gets cleaned → spot market reabsorbs.
If this combination appears later, it’s actually worth noting.
Conversely, if good news keeps increasing but BTC keeps breaking key supports, it means the market still needs time to digest the positions.
So the most important thing now is not counting good news, but seeing if the funds can actually buy the price back.
Do you think this correction is just deleveraging, or has the bull market rhythm really changed?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 The current $BTC price is moving around the mark of 77,449.60 (consolidating in the Sideway boundary of 76k8 – 78k5). The price structure is more inclined to push back up to retest the resistance area before continuing the corrective wave to discharge to deeper support levels. Please refer to this Short plan:
📌 Trading Plan (Short Setup):
Entry Short Zone: 78k2 – 78k6 (Align the recoil to test the upper resistance to catch a good position) Current Sideway Amplitude: 76k8 – 78k5 Stop Loss (SL): > 79k6 (Breaking this mark accepts a straight hand cut,I just snapped out of this rally, so let me share my real feelings. This market is like a roller coaster—my heart can't take it. Let's start with the market: Air force gets hammered, bulls get hit hard just as excitement gets drenched August's script was just too thrilling. At the start of the month, Bitcoin was hovering around $64,000, but then the US Treasury pulled a big move, saying it would double the amount of long-term Treasury bond repurchases to at least $4 billion per transaction. The market interpreted this as "disguised money printing"—as soon as the dollar weakened, Bitcoin and gold surged together. The air force was instantly blown up—$2.74 billion in liquidations in a single day on August 20! Bitcoin surged to $81,000 in one go, with a 28% increase in August, hitting a three-year high. Ethereum was not to be outdone, surging 19% to $2,250. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from a "panic" of 40 to 74 in a few days to "extreme greed." But! Just when I thought it was time to surge, Fed Chairman Warsh poured cold water on Jackson Hole—"Inflation hasn't been resolved yet, and the financial environment isn't exactly loose." The market instantly turned hostile, with Bitcoin dropping from $80,000 to around $77,000, and the market evaporating 4% in a single day. $BTC: Is $80,000 the floor or the ceiling? My current judgment is: short-term volatility, medium-term bullishness, but the $80,000 level is crucial. The good news is that institutions are buying with real money—over $2.6 billion net inflow in eight days, which isn't something retail investors can sustain with FOMO. And Coinbase has shown a premium on Binance, indicating that US institutions are leading this rally. But the bad news is, Warsh🚨 What if the biggest crypto crashes give us a hidden signal BEFORE they happen?
Guys, am I the only one noticing this? 👀
After looking at 7 years of data, I found something really interesting: when the crypto market starts crashing hard, altcoins tend to move much more closely with $BTC. In extreme sell-offs, their average correlation can get close to 0.9.
That got me thinking…
What if we use this as a simple market-warning tool?
#DailyOrbit 当美联储主席说“我们还有工作要做”，比特币冲破8万美元的狂欢，突然安静了 北京时间8月28日22时，美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会发表题为《我们所处的时代》的演讲 话音未落，黄金跳水50美元，市场对9月加息的预期概率从35%飙至60%。而在几天前，比特币刚刚气势如虹地冲破8万美元大关，创下三个月新高，8月迄今暴涨28% 表面上是流动性盛宴的延续，实则美联储已经开始收桌子 比特币破8万：狂欢还是最后的晚餐？ 这一轮比特币暴涨，导火索其实挺有意思。美国财政部宣布把长期国债回购规模翻倍，市场直接解读成“变相QE”，美元走软，资金涌向比特币和黄金这些“非主权资产” 叠加特朗普喊话让国会通过加密监管《清晰法案》，比特币一周狂飙23%，全市场空头三天被爆仓46亿美元 听着很猛对吧？但数据里有几个细节值得琢磨 第一，这轮上涨很大程度是“空头挤压”驱动的，也就是空头被强行平仓推上去的，不是实打实的现货买盘。分析师已经指出，纯粹靠强平推动的动能明显减弱了，后面能不能撑住，得看ETF流入能不能持续。 第二，ETF数据看着热闹，底子其实没那么硬。 8月第三周比特币现货ETF净流入约19亿美元，Kanye launched a coin called YZY on Solana last August, branded as the Yeezy brand payment ecosystem—paired with Ye Pay and YZY Card.
On the launch day, it surged to a market cap of several billion dollars, then steadily collapsed. By the end of the year, the price had dropped to around $0.0008.
Then it rebounded in 2026.
As of August 29, the YTD increase was about 42,730%. According to CoinLore, it ranked first in performance for 2026. The current price ranges between $0.29 and $0.35, with a circulating market cap of roughly 90 to 100 million.
The numbers are staggering. But I have to clarify how this increase came about—from $0.0008 to $0.3, the percentage obviously exploded, but the starting point was an almost zero price. A low-base rebound and sustained fundamental growth are two different things.
A few facts: total supply is 1 billion tokens, about 300 million are circulating, and the remaining roughly 70% are still locked in Yeezy Investments LLC’s vesting plan. On August 16, about 120 million tokens were just unlocked, accounting for 12% of the total supply.
The pattern of celebrity meme coins has never changed: when they rise, you feel like a genius; when they fall, you question your life. YZY went through this on its very first day.I just stayed up late watching Wash's debut speech at Jackson Hole—he really has something to do. Institutional language model analysis shows that Wash's speech this time is more hawkish than Powell's in recent years. And this is no coincidence—his attitude is exactly the same as his recent press conference, meeting minutes, and congressional testimony. What did Washh say? Inflation is still too high, the economy remains resilient, and the financial environment is far from "restrictive." His exact words were: the underlying trend in inflation "has not yet shown meaningful improvement," and the Fed "still has work to do." The 2% inflation target is "unwavering and unchangeable." Even harsher, he bluntly said, "I stand here today and promise a discipline, not a decision"—not even forward-looking guidance! The market exploded after hearing this, with the probability of a rate hike in September soaring from 35% to nearly 60%. Gold plunged $50, US Treasury yields rose. To be honest, Walsh's "quiet Fed" approach is much harder than Powell's back then. If there really is a rate hike in September, BTC and altcoins will be under pressure againA gossip story helped me understand how Aircoin actually makes money. First, let me clarify: below is a hypothetical simulation based on publicly available on-chain data. Currently, there is no public evidence proving that these "Jingtian Coins" were created or manipulated by Justin Sun himself or his team. After Justin Sun's article "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" went viral, I saw something even more shocking on the chain: "Jingtian Coin" appeared almost instantly. And not just one. On the public market page, you can see multiple groups of tokens on the same Base chain, with several contracts showing the same developer address. A single pool can achieve a 24-hour trading volume of 10 million to over 30 million USD. For example, several pools publicly show 24-hour trading volumes of about 10.47 million, 15.6 million, 18 million, 23.56 million, 32.21 million, and 33.97 million USD. This made me seriously study for the first time: if these coins were really made by one person, how would they make money? The answer was completely different from what I had originally thought. The first thing that shocked me: the cost of issuing a token is almost negligible. I used to think token issuance was some kind of high-tech. You need programmers, write smart contracts, build servers, find exchanges...... But now, that's not the case at all. Tools like Clanker can already create tradable tokens in under one minute without needing development skills. You fill in your name, image, symbol, wallet signature, and put it on-chain. Even more outrageous, I checked one of the "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" contracts: the creator's initial purchase is 0 ETH, lock-up ratio is 0%, initial market capViewing On-Exchange Buyer Momentum Intensity from SVD Data
The chart below shows the 24-hour average SVD (Spot Volume Delta) data for Binance and Coinbase; that is, the taker's transaction difference, where positive indicates buyer dominance and negative indicates seller dominance.
From the data, since the market started on August 19, Coinbase's SVD has remained positive, but the three peaks I circled are consecutively decreasing.
This reflects a stepwise weakening of active buying strength, a typical volume-price divergence.
Binance also shows decreasing peaks, and after August 26, it overall turned negative, marking the deepest seller dominance of the entire month.
This can be interpreted on two levels:
🚩 Seller dominance without price decline may rely on passive limit orders or ETF primary market absorption that is not reflected in taker data.
If subsequent selling pressure gradually exhausts, essentially the chips are transferring from short-term profit-taking to demand-side holders, which is a digestion process.
🚩 It can be seen that market sentiment has shifted from broad chasing before and around August 20 to a high-level divergence phase, with upward momentum entering a decay period.
Looking only at active buying, given the current situation, continuing a large-scale rally would be quite difficult.
For a secondary upward attack to occur, selling pressure must be fully digested, or external forces must again catalyze market sentiment.What are the considerations for setting the cost line after floating profits?
It depends on how much drawdown you are willing to bear and your subjective choice of market size.
The reason for hastily raising the stop-loss line is that you fear losing the profits you've made. However, by adjusting the stop-loss line and reducing the drawdown you bear, your ability to capture the market decreases, making it easier to be shaken out by small fluctuations during big market moves.
Therefore, there is no absolute best for take-profit or stop-loss; it entirely depends on your choice and what you want. If you want to secure some profit first, you set a breakeven stop-loss, which is a method of reducing the trading scale.
If you want to avoid being frequently shaken out during market oscillations, then you don't set it, increasing the chance of holding onto your position, especially in an epic bull market. But the trade-off is that you often won't make much money in small market moves.
Trading always involves trade-offs; you can't have it both ways. Wanting both low drawdown and high explosive returns is almost impossible in a fully priced financial market.At the end of AI hype, I increasingly feel that the biggest shortage might not be GPUs, but electricity.
NVIDIA's latest earnings report continues to support AI demand, but on the other hand, as major companies build larger and larger data centers, the electricity issue has started to shift from a "cost" problem to a "can it be launched on time" problem. Now companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta$META are competing not only for GPUs but also for power plants and grid capacity that can provide long-term stable electricity.
This is also why I've recently started looking at power stocks like CEG and TLN again. CEG's latest quarterly revenue was $7.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year, and they raised their full-year EPS guidance; TLN is even more direct, holding nuclear and natural gas assets, while also having about 4GW of data center project opportunities. The more AI data centers are deployed, the more valuable their stable power supply becomes.
This sector differs significantly from chips: GPUs can be expanded in production, but a power plant or a transmission line can't be built immediately just because you want it next year. So as compute CapEx continues to rise, the electricity bottleneck may become increasingly apparent.
If it were me, I wouldn't just focus on who supplies NVIDIA. The next phase of AI where expectations might easily diverge could be in electricity, nuclear power, gas turbines—those "without power, nothing runs" links.On-chain transactions of $SOL have reached 4.2 billion, with fundamentals hitting new highs, but why is the price still 67% below the peak of 293u?
Such a big divergence between fundamentals and price—is it an opportunity or a trap?
1. ETF inflows are real. On Monday, there was a net inflow of 33.5 million, setting this year's single-day inflow record. This indicates institutional funds are continuously entering.
2. But high concentration of funds is a risk. 80% of ETF inflows come from one product, meaning not the entire industry is allocating to SOL; it looks more like a few institutions are betting on it.
3. Also, on-chain activity being lively doesn’t necessarily mean value. High trading volume and meme popularity often involve bots and speculative trades, with limited actual protocol revenue generated.
My judgment: the fundamentals are indeed very good, and this is a long-term trend—I am also bullish in the long run.
For the recent trend, priority should be given to watching the RSI. The overbought sentiment is too severe now, plus the rate hike negative news from last night. Don’t FOMO in the short term; wait for a pullback to around 85u before considering entry.美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔的最新表态，听起来像是一句温和的外交辞令：不基于过时或不准确的数据制定前瞻性政策。可若把它翻译成市场语言，潜台词其实相当直白——眼下既没有加息的理由，也没有降息的紧迫，货币政策维持中性。这句话本身并不新鲜，市场对此早有定价，真正值得留意的，反而是话落之后以太坊那阵短促的上下颠簸。与其说这是对政策方向的应激反应，不如说更像一场借消息面发起的杠杆清洗。🪄 从概率定价来看，市场对加息路径的预期在沃什讲话后反而温和抬升，当前定调概率已接近五成。这个数字并不激进，却透露出一个信号：此前过度押注宽松的资金，可能需要重新校准仓位。换句话说，政策方向依然模糊，但市场对“不再更鸽”的认知正在悄悄固化。对于加密市场而言，这种预期差往往比政策本身更具杀伤力，因为杠杆头寸最怕的从来不是方向，而是反复。 回看这轮波动，BTC冲高回落之后，期权到期又放大了关口附近的博弈烈度。价格在关键位置来回试探，短线资金进退两难。若消息面无法提供新的增量，那么向下完成一次强劲回调，顺势清算残留在市场上的多头头寸，反而成为概率不低的路径。从技术位置推演，以太坊若展开下杀，第一目标可能落在2200美元附#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
The key to grid trading is "it only thrives in a ranging market." Once the market trends in one direction, the grid turns from a money printer into a knife catcher. There are too many real cases:
The 2022 LUNA/UST crash and the FTX collapse were textbook examples of one-sided sharp declines. Any range grid holding coins within the range was just buying on the way down, getting more and more trapped, with grid profits being negligible. A classic review from March 2025: a BTC grid set between 70,000–90,000, with the price breaking down to 62,000 in 12 hours. The bot bought 0.7 BTC at an average price of 78,000, with an unrealized loss of 11,200, while the two-month grid profit was only 1,800, resulting in a net loss of 9,400 after closing the position. If a trailing stop loss at 68,000 had been set, the loss could have been limited to 2,500.
My own SPCX long grid currently shows a total negative return, for the same reason—the price slightly trending downwards unilaterally causes unmatched longs to bleed. Beginners must establish one principle: grid trading is not "set and forget"; it has a hidden premise called "valid range." When the price breaks below the lower bound, the first reaction should not be "wait for it to come back," but to pause or stop loss. In a ranging market, grid trading is a bulletproof vest; in a trending market, it is a magnet.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 @OKX成长学院 WARSH DIDN’T KILL THE BULL MARKET — HE SHATTERED EXPECTATIONS
I used to think $BTC crashed after Jackson Hole because bears were too strong. But looking closer, the story is different. $BTC surged from $62K to above $81K, and everyone bet the Fed would remain dovish. Then Warsh appeared and reminded the market inflation isn’t over yet. Interest-rate expectations reversed, longs were liquidated, and $BTC plunged.
But this could simply be a reset. If $77K holds, the game isn’t over.Let's start with today's numbers. These are all daily data. Everyone, check it yourself: BTC around 77,500, ETH 2,436, SOL 103.7, Fear and Greed Index 77, still hanging in the greed zone. But the one with the most heated discussion today wasn't price, but Walsh emphasizing inflation risks. Expectations of a rate hike in September are rising. A week ago, the market's question was whether a rate cut would happen. Now the question has become: will it happen? Seven days later, the topic has completely flipped. I think this is much more important than a $2,000 drop, because price is the result, the issue is the environment To give a not-so-serious example, after three months of dating, you're worried about when he'll take me to meet his parents. Then one day he suddenly says, 'Aren't we moving a bit too fast?' You'll find that all your calculations are useless—not because he said something harsh, but because the topics you discussed are no longer the same. The market is the same—all your position logic is based on a default topic. Once the topic changes, the logic isn't disproven—it just fails. So what I've been doing these past two days has been boring—not rebalancing positions, but rereading your own assumptions I ask myself three questions: Is my position betting on direction or liquidity? If September doesn't cut rates, or even more hawkish, can my structure survive? If not, then what I'm holding now is faith, or is it unwillingness to admit mistakes? The ETF line is still ongoing, with continuous net inflows. August is the strongest month of the year. This is real money, I don't deny it, but slow money can't withstand fast variables. Institutions are doing so#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
Wash's speech this time is to pour cold water on the market—it's time to wake up from rate cut expectations; the tightening cycle is far from over.
The judgment basis is very straightforward: his original words contain three key phrases—Inflation above 2%, financial conditions not restrictive, labor force near full employment. Translated, it means "I'm not in a hurry to cut rates." The market immediately reacted: the implied probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 58%, the two-day US Treasury yield rose from 4.22% to 4.35%, and BTC and gold both fell on the same day. This is not emotional volatility; it's capital repricing.
How to respond specifically
If you hold long positions in BTC/gold, don't rush to add positions in the short term; wait for the next two CPI and non-farm payroll data releases before deciding the direction. Wash has passed the ball to the data, so we follow the data.
If US Treasury yields stabilize above 4.35%, it indicates rate hike expectations are still heating up. At this time, all high-valuation assets (especially tech stocks and crypto) will continue to be under pressure; position size is recommended to be controlled below 50%.
If subsequent data weakens (CPI falls or employment cools), and the September rate hike probability drops back below 30%, that is the signal to add positions.
Don't bet on a Fed pivot; trade according to the data. Wash has made it very clear—if data is good, hike rates; if data is bad, then talk about other things. The market pricing now still has half the people thinking no rate hike; this divergence is the biggest source of upcoming volatility.
@OKX星球 $XAU gold has dropped to over 4400, and there isn't much room to fall further. The war isn't over, the US November elections are on the way. Although the US dollar has strengthened, it doesn't solve the fundamental issues; the core of de-dollarization and dollar depreciation hasn't changed. Therefore, gold is still favored in the long term. It's uncertain whether it can break the previous high this year, but over a few years, tying to the new system, a new high can be expected. #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens Bitcoin's $80,000 level has yet to be broken, and the reason may have been found
$BTC has been fluctuating around $80,000 these past few days, and there is actually a very important reason behind it.
On August 28, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expired, with a large number of call options concentrated near $75,000 and $80,000. Before expiration, market makers' hedging actions can easily cause the price to be "pulled" near these key strike prices.
Now that these options have settled, the pressure holding BTC near $80,000 has started to weaken.
Currently, more obvious sell orders above the market are moving toward around $82,000, and BTC's recent high has already reached about $81,300.
So I think the next few days are actually more important.
Previously, it was a shakeout around $80,000; next is the real moment to decide the direction.
If volume picks up again and BTC firmly holds between $81,000 and $82,000, I will start looking toward the next target at $84,000. Last night, after the Federal Reserve's speech, $BTC dropped sharply. Is this the start of a downtrend? I don't think so:
1. The Fed Chair's speech last night focused on one message: I want to raise rates in September. The exact words were: inflation is much higher than the expected 2%; the primary focus must be on prices; the lending market does not restrict monetary policy.
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin's sudden drop to $76,888 while consolidating near $77,500 seems unexpected, but is actually the result of multiple logics concentrating on the $644 million option expiration date. The spot market already lacks endogenous momentum at the $80,000 level, and combined with the dual pressure of macro expectations shifting and derivatives clearing spreads, prices have fallen almost without resistance. Although ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, supplementing the market with incremental funds, this rebound from the low level does not rely on sustained spot buying; the core momentum comes from the short squeeze effect of short covering. When prices approach $80,000, profit-taking positions accumulated at previous lows collectively exit, while new spot funds fail to keep up, instantly breaking upward momentum and causing the market to fall almost vertically from around $79,500. The market is currently at a critical point of two extreme scenarios. If the Fed sends a clear dovish signal to push down the dollar index and Treasury yields, the price needs to hold above $81,000 with increased volume to trigger simultaneous buying and residual short capitulation by market makers, truly breaking out of the volatility zone. Conversely, if the price breaks below the key support at $79,500, option sellers' hedging will accelerate the price to slide toward the $75,000 concentration zone, with $76,888 only as a midway point. It is worth noting that once these concentrated expiring options are delivered, the massive liquidity locked in by market makers for hedging will be fully released. As long as the spot selling pressure near $77,500 is successfully digested, the market is expected to break free from the current two-way tug-of-war and enter a clearer one-way moveThe pendulum of the macro narrative had just swung once before $BTC made its statement with a candlestick with an amplitude of nearly $4,000. Yesterday, prices first launched a push toward 81.3K to 81.5K, a range not seriously tested in months, forcing bears to cover; But Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole brought inflation expectations back to center stage, the rhythm of monetary easing was questioned by the market, the dollar rose in tandem with yields, and Bitcoin immediately gave back all its gains, briefly touching the 77K high, and finally caught a brief breather near 79.5K. About $6.44 billion worth of options expired intraday, and positions gathered near the 75K and 80K strike prices pushed the already sensitive market into a more intense two-way pull. This is not a calm sideways movement waiting for a new story, but a process where the market tries to rebuild balance after intense volatility. 80K remains the most critical watershed: if it can be cleanly recovered and maintained, buyers' willingness to defend the recovery will be confirmed, and 81K to 83K will return to the spotlight; If repeatedly blocked, vulnerability will linger. On the downside, 78K is a support to closely watch; if it falls below it again, the 76K to 77K range will test the nature of this pullback. The most important thing at this stage is not to guess the next candlestick but to observe at which price level real demand is willing to re-enter. Above 80K, bulls hold the initiative; below 78K, defensive postures must be upgraded. Until then, restraint is more valuable than action. Risk warning: Crypto market volatility is dramaticETH current mark price is 2433.82, running a 100x short position.
Hourly OBV energy tide is declining synchronously, volume supports the price drop, and the bearish momentum was fully released earlier. However, the recent OBV downward slope has clearly slowed, indicating that the active selling force has exhausted, showing some divergence between volume and price. The strong resistance zone is between 2472-2486 above, and 2401 serves as the first defensive support below.
Mainstream coins have large market caps, and large buy orders can instantly reverse the market. The 100x ultra-high leverage has very low error tolerance. My ETHUSDT 100x short position continues to be held, with an unrealized profit of 107.74%.
In-depth analysis: no new short positions will be opened; partial profit-taking will occur upon reaching support levels. Stop loss is raised to 2498. If OBV turns upward accompanied by a price rebound, exit all positions immediately; do not hold through a reverse spike. $ETH Large inflows into gold ETFs often trigger the immediate reaction of “risk aversion is back.”
I think there’s another layer to consider: this could be capital buying insurance against uncertainties in fiscal and monetary policies. Those buying gold aren’t necessarily pessimistic; they’re just increasingly unwilling to place all their trust on a single paper asset.
Currently, gold buying includes central banks, ETFs, futures longs, and rebalancing funds within ordinary portfolios. Although all are buying gold, their sentiments differ completely. Central banks buy for reserve diversification, ETFs for liquidity risk hedging, and short-term funds for trend momentum.
Therefore, gold’s ability to attract capital at high levels doesn’t necessarily mean the market is about to crash. It’s more like a collective statement: I can continue holding risky assets, but please give me something that doesn’t rely on others’ promises
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 To be honest, this pullback is not really unexpected, and the trend is basically within the anticipated scenario. The market first faced a wave of violent liquidation, and the real test has just begun. Next, depending on how the US Federal Reserve Board's follow-up policies play out, BTC broke through the $79,000 barrier, and ETH also showed weakness, struggling to recover support at 2,500. On the other hand, there is the uncertainty risk of pricing prices macroeconomically without passively waiting for message landing confirmation anymore. But one important point is worth observing calmly. I don't think this decline marks the start of a major reversal trend. The hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole changed liquidity expectations and triggered this pullback by intensively pressing the leverage piled up at high levels. The overheated sentiment and high leverage accumulated during the rally completed risk release through this decline. The short-term pain rather washes away the speculative chips to make room for the subsequent trend 🚨 MACRO HAS CHANGED THE SHORT-TERM GAME
Jackson Hole reminded markets that easier policy isn’t guaranteed.
The Fed kept the focus on inflation, jobs and financial conditions, pushing rate-hike expectations higher while Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened.
That’s a tough backdrop for crypto, especially high-beta altcoins, meme coins and leveraged positions.
But hawkish Fed ≠ automatic bear market.
The next inflation and employment data will matter more than one speech.#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
What did Iran do?
Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, announced that an agreement has been reached with Oman to open a temporary shipping lane in the central Strait of Hormuz. Part of the route lies in Iranian waters, part in Omani waters, jointly managed by both sides.
But Iran also laid out its list of conditions: the U.S. must end wars in the Middle East, especially the war in Lebanon. The opening of the lane is based on a new memorandum of understanding, not a restoration of the old June agreement. Rezaei also warned that if the U.S. launches an "economic war," Iran will respond with an economic war targeting U.S. oil companies in the Middle East.
How did the U.S. respond?
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 27th that the Trump administration has repeatedly made clear to mediators that it has no intention of returning to the framework of the June Versailles memorandum. A White House spokesperson said the same day that Trump has not seen serious willingness from Iran to return to negotiations. The strategy has shifted to "maximum economic pressure" and expanding sanctions through "economic isolation actions."
Oil prices have already signaled
After the announcement, Brent crude briefly broke above $88 per barrel. Previously, oil prices fell due to expectations of the temporary shipping lane, but after the U.S. refusal to return to the agreement, prices quickly rebounded—the market is repricing the gap between "navigation expectations" and "agreement breakdown." Iran offered a temporary step on the channel, and the U.S. politically dismantled that step directly. This is not a negotiation; both sides are simultaneously pressuring each other—one using "allowing passage" to gain leverage, the other using "refusal" to show its bottom line. Fundamental Research Report $INJ / Injective (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Injective ($INJ) overall score 61/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Injective (token $INJ), public chain/L1 sector. Focused on financial dedicated chain, CosmWasm. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap, Injective $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV: Injective $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue: Injective $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Injective undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 61/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-offs, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Key future indicators: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from public data, not investment advice. Core indicator changes over 30% invalidate conclusions.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitCharles Schwab is also going to sell altcoins now, recently announcing the addition of SOL, AVAX, and LINK, with plans to launch them on the Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months.
Previously, this platform only had BTC and ETH, and it just launched in May this year. Now, the number of supported coins is expanding from 2 to 5, and they chose the three most mature ones besides BTC and ETH—SOL is a leading public chain, AVAX is a veteran L1, and LINK is the oracle kingpin. No small coins were selected, very stable.
What scale is Charles Schwab? Over 39 million accounts, managing $13.1 trillion in assets. Traditional brokerage clients who previously had to go to Coinbase to buy crypto can now buy BTC and ETH directly in their stock accounts, and in a few months, they will also be able to buy SOL, AVAX, and LINK, greatly lowering the entry barrier for funds.
After the news broke, SOL immediately rose 5%-9%, showing the market’s vote with its feet. The transaction fee is 0.75% per trade, more expensive than crypto exchanges, but traditional clients value convenience and compliance.
My view: This is a landmark event showing traditional finance’s increasing acceptance of altcoins. Institutions used to only recognize $BTC, then $ETH, and now even $SOL, AVAX, and LINK have entered the whitelist of traditional brokerages, indicating the mainstreaming of the crypto market is accelerating. In the long term, these large-cap altcoins will attract more incremental funds; in the short term, the price already reflects the news stimulus, so don’t chase the highs, wait for a pullback.
Who do you think will be the next altcoin accepted by traditional brokerages? Controversial opinion: This round of BTC rally might be eliminating a group of people who "think they understand BTC best."
Recently, BTC surged back near $80,000.
Many people's first reaction was:
The bull is back.
But I suggest you look at a phenomenon that's easy to overlook:
BTC itself is rising, but that doesn't mean all "BTC concepts" are profiting.
In the past year, many listed companies started to imitate Strategy by putting large amounts of BTC on their balance sheets.
The logic is simple:
Company raises funds.
Buys BTC.
BTC rises.
Market gives the company a higher valuation.
So more and more companies began to copy this model.
Sounds perfect.
But now problems have emerged.
Recent data shows that the combined market cap of leading Bitcoin treasury companies has dropped from about $150 billion at the 2025 peak to about $67 billion in August 2026.
More notably:
Some companies have even started selling BTC to cover financing costs.
This reveals a harsh fact:
"Being bullish on BTC" does not equal "any BTC strategy can make money."
You buy BTC.
And
You buy a "company holding BTC."
These are actually two completely different things.
The former mainly bears BTC's own volatility.
The latter also bears:
Financing costs.
Equity dilution.
Corporate governance.
Valuation premium.
Cash flow pressure.
Even management decision errors.
So I increasingly feel:
What’s truly worth learning from this market cycle is not just:
"Why is BTC rising?"
But:
Why do some people who are right about BTC still lose money?
The answer might be simple:
They put the right direction
Into the wrong tool.
This is equally important for retail investors.
Just because you pick the right sector,
Doesn't mean the Token you buy will necessarily rise.
Just because you are right about BTC,
Doesn't mean all BTC concept stocks will rise.
Just because you are right about AI,
Doesn't mean all AI projects will succeed.
Being right about the direction only solves the first layer of the problem.
What truly determines the outcome is also:
What asset do you use to express this judgment?
What risks do you bear?
What costs do you pay?
And:
How much has the market already priced in this story?
So next time you see a hot narrative,
I suggest you don't rush to ask:
"How much more can it rise?"
Instead, ask three questions first:
What exactly am I buying?
Where does this asset's value come from?
If the market temporarily doesn't follow my script, can I survive?
Because the most dangerous thing in Crypto is not being wrong about the direction.
It's:
Being right about the direction but choosing the wrong tool.
What do you think are the two things most easily confused by retail investors in the market now?
Do "BTC" and "BTC concept stocks" count as one?
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 $BTC 🚨 The macro shock may have passed — now the real question is, who is still continuously buying?
Bitcoin has just undergone a real market stress test.
BTC once surged above $81,000, but as the Jackson Hole meeting released more hawkish policy signals, risk assets quickly cooled down, and Bitcoin subsequently fell back to around $77,000.
But now, what I’m more concerned about is not the drop itself, but 👇
After leverage has been cleared, will spot buying reappear?
In the past few days, the market has experienced large-scale position adjustments; meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF still maintains strong capital inflows, recording net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion.
This implies a key divergence:
📉 If ETF funds continue to flow in and BTC can stabilize above $80,000 again, then this pullback may just be a leverage washout.
📈 But if fund inflows start to slow down, and the price continues to break below the $77,000–$75,000 range, the market needs to be wary of a deeper round of adjustment.
What really matters is not "how much it fell," but whether the real spot buyers return after the liquidation ends.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #比特币 #加密货币 #DailyOrbit今天福克斯新闻扔了个重磅消息：美国计划将100万枚BTC纳入战略储备，占总供应量的5%。 但问题来了——5月份ARMA法案刚取消了100万枚购买目标。 一边说买100万枚，一边说取消了购买目标。到底信哪个？ 先搞清楚来龙去脉。 ARMA法案由众议员Nick Begich（共和党）和Jared Golden（民主党）共同提出，两党支持。核心内容是：将美国政府已持有的比特币纳入战略储备，锁定至少20年不得出售。 注意，ARMA法案的核心是“锁仓”，不是“买币”。 它不要求政府去市场买100万枚，而是把已经通过没收拿到的币锁起来。 那“买100万枚”的说法哪来的？ 来自更早的BITCOIN Act——5年内每年买20万枚，累计100万枚。但这个版本在ARMA法案里被正式搁置了。 美国政府现在手里有多少$BTC？ 约32.8万枚，价值超250亿美元，主要来自丝绸之路和Bitfinex黑客案没收。已经是全球最大的政府比特币持有者。 有意思的地方来了—— 如果ARMA最终通过，32.8万枚BTC将被锁仓20年，相当于从流通市场里永久抽走1.5%的供应量。而且法案还允许财政部通过预算中性方式继续增持What truly made the market nervous in Jackson Hole's speech was not the word "rate hike," but the policy signals sent by Walsh. He emphasized that if inflation does not approach the 2% target quickly enough, the Fed "still has work to do"; At the same time, he believes the current overall financial environment is not tight enough. To put it simply: 👉 if inflation does not significantly ease, the Fed will not ease easily; 👉 Current financial conditions may remain relatively loose; 👉 Further tightening of future policies cannot be ruled out. The market immediately began repricing. 📊 The latest reaction shows that the September rate hike expectation has surged from about 35% to nearly 60%, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has also surged significantly, the dollar has strengthened, and gold has briefly fallen below the $4,500 mark. BTC also cannot hold on. Bitcoin previously surged to around $81,000, then quickly pulled back, hitting an intraday low close to $76,900, with short-term volatility significantly amplified. ⚠️ The biggest change this time is not "a rate hike is guaranteed in September," but rather: the market is beginning to accept a new possibility—the Fed may not continue easing in the short term. Moreover, Walsh's attitude toward "forward-looking guidance" is very clear, hoping to reduce the market's reliance on the central bank revealing its policy path in advance. What does this mean? In the future, the market may rely more on every CPI, employment, and inflation data to judge the next policy move, rather than betting on the Fed's fixed path in advance. 📌 BTC short-term focus: Around $80,000 has once again become an important observation zone;When large positions are stuck, the market becomes so quiet it's unsettling. Have you ever wondered, when several well-known large accounts are simultaneously losing money, who is the market waiting for to take over? Looking at on-chain data today, I noticed an interesting detail. A previously very active large investor saw all their long positions slide from profit to loss, with overall returns dropping to about -35%, and total unrealized losses exceeding $1.6 million. Among them, the 25x long position in Ethereum had a single unrealized loss close to $950,000; the Bitcoin long position with 40x leverage had an unrealized loss of about $345,000; and a 10x leveraged HYPE long position also lost about $310,000. What matters to ponder is not "who lost money," but that these positions are still alive. If it hasn't collapsed, it means the margin hasn't been broken down yet, but the liquidation price may be just a step away from the liquidation price. This position is often the most vulnerable, because holders either choose to hold positions and wait for a rebound, or are forced to reduce positions to lower risk. Either choice will leave a mark on the market. Looking at the liquidation data across the entire network, in the past hour, the scale of liquidation by long positions reached as high as $209 million, while short positions were only $10.52 million—almost a one-sided crush. Bitcoin and Ethereum contributed 97.37 million and 62.13 million in liquidation volume, respectively. Leveraged funds are being targeted and washed out, and this trend is clearly leaning toward the bulls. My understanding is that the core of current market trading is not fundamentals, but the leverage structure itself. When long positions are too crowded, prices are easily pushed downward,$TRUMP Coin: Easy to surge to $3, hard to hold steady
Latest market update: On August 28, TRUMP surged 20% in a single day, hitting $3 for the first time in four months before pulling back, currently trading around $2.7-$2.9, with a market cap of about $700 million, ranking sixth among meme coins. This rally started from a historic low of $1.37 on August 13, reaching a ten-day high of $3.60, nearly doubling, driven by the overall market rebound, $30 million short squeeze, plus rumors of "the Trump family launching a new coin" (which little Trump has denied).
But the script is too familiar: On the day it hit $3.60, the team wallet transferred 2.62 million tokens to OKX (about $6.2 million), and the price immediately plunged 33%, just like in April. The top ten addresses control 90% of the supply, 80% of tokens won’t unlock until 2028, and there are still two to three million new tokens released daily waiting to crash the market.
The harshest reality: Nansen statistics show nearly one million wallets collectively at an unrealized loss of $3.8 billion, while the Trump family has pocketed over $600 million. The current price is still 96% below the all-time high of $73.43.
Purely news-driven speculation, with the unlocking sword hanging overhead. You make money from volatility; the team makes money from you.