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If the macro bottom of Bitcoin has truly been established, then the market is still in the very early stage of the recovery cycle. 📉➡️📈 Historically, the buy signal from the last week of the previous bear cycle was confirmed, and the price then rose by up to 500%. However, it is important to note that recent cycles have shown narrowing volatility ranges on both the upside and downside. This means investors should expect lower returns compared to previous cycles, rather than betting on a reboundNVIDIA Q2 Earnings Report
AI Industry "Overall Performance Report"
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Earnings for fiscal year 2027 Q2 announced after market close on August 26
Current market expectations for revenue are about $92 billion, nearly double year-over-year
The company's own guidance midpoint is $91 billion
Exceeding expectations is no longer a surprise; it is now a basic requirement
· Last quarter, NVIDIA's revenue was $81.6 billion, with data center revenue at $75.2 billion. The market is concerned whether the growth rate can continue to absorb increasingly high expectations.
· Approximately 75% gross margin. Blackwell Ultra ramp-up and Vera Rubin entering delivery cycle will bring stronger performance but also imply more complex system costs. HBM supply, product transitions, and rack delivery pace may all impact margins.
· Whether customers are still willing to spend. Cloud providers expanding capital expenditures means orders for NVIDIA; however, the market still needs to see this computing power ultimately convert into AI revenue, rather than just cycling within the industry chain.
This earnings report is not only about whether NVIDIA can make money, but also about whether the AI investment cycle can accelerate further Pop Mart's financial report stunned me. Revenue was 17.173 billion, up 23.8%, net profit was 5.038 billion, up 10.1%. The numbers aren't bad, but the market expected more and it fell short, causing the stock price to drop over 8%, halving from its peak. It's really a tough situation.
Wang Ning was quite candid, admitting that last year's surge had some luck involved, and the LABUBU proportion is also declining. Then they announced a 2 to 5 billion buyback plan. Goldman Sachs is still pouring cold water, saying demand is weak and inventory is high. But offline, the scene is completely opposite: Star People sell out instantly, second-hand prices are 13 times higher, and even Duan Yongping said the business is doing extremely well when visiting stores. Who to believe? I'm confused too.
The buyback is real money, at least the boss is confident; but the hurdles of growth rate and inventory remain. Whether they can launch another hit after LABUBU is the most important issue for this stock going forward, with Star People being a sign of hope. Today it rebounded 4% to HKD 155, sentiment is recovering, but a full return in one go seems unlikely. #FinancialReportObserverMultiple banks across countries have launched pilot projects for quantum-resistant encryption, and the NEAR testnet adopts the ML-DSA-65 standard.
But what about Bitcoin? Experts estimate that the upgrade will take 5-10 years, and BIP 360 is still in the draft stage.
Four major challenges:
1️⃣ Slow decentralized governance
2️⃣ Technical architecture needs to be rebuilt
3️⃣ Difficulties in migrating existing assets
4️⃣ The "immutable" narrative is locked in
Ironically: Solana successfully ran quantum-resistant signatures last December, while the veteran public chain is actually lagging behind.
$BTC $SOL $HOOD surged 13.7% in a single day, closing at $108. The core issue lies in whether the short-term boost to US stock brokers' valuations from crypto trading fees can translate into cross-asset support under the Jackson Hole macro interest rate narrative shift.
Currently, BTC has broken through $77,000, ETH is at $2,444, up 2.76%, and the crypto trading surge directly pushed $HOOD up 13.7% in one day, breaking $108. Funds also flowed into resource stocks like UEC, up 14.4%, and USAR, up 12.6%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.71% to 3,877 points, and the Hang Seng Index dropped 2.09% to 25,465 points, showing a sharp divergence in cross-market risk appetite.
The order of market driving factors is: the magnitude of the crypto fee surge ranks highest, followed by the direction of the Jackson Hole interest rate narrative, and third is Nvidia's earnings report impact on tech stock liquidity.
The bullish scenario triggers if Jackson Hole confirms expectations of interest rate cuts, while BTC maintains trading volume above $77,000. At this point, $HOOD's fee revenue will extend to non-crypto business and solidify a market cap in the hundreds of billions; the variable to watch is growth in non-crypto business volume; the invalidation signal is Nvidia's earnings falling short and dragging down the overall US tech sector.
The bearish scenario triggers if crypto trading volume peaks short-term and then quickly declines, and Jackson Hole shows a stance of maintaining high interest rates. This would squeeze the premium supported solely by crypto fees, causing the stock price to consolidate based on fundamentals; the variable to watch is the strength of BTC support at the $77,000 level; the invalidation signal is continued strong rallies in US quantum and resource sectors taking over market sentiment.
The core condition invalidating the entire analysis is a sharp shift in macro interest rate expectations causing simultaneous volume contraction in traditional US stocks and crypto assets.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are the interest rate signals released at Jackson Hole and the fund rotation rhythm between crypto and US stocks following Nvidia's earnings release.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The US is targeting Iran again.
Trump called this "the most devastating economic action ever taken against a country." The goal is directly aimed at overthrowing the regime. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said details will be announced on the 24th, effectively setting the timeline.
Iran is not backing down. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz. Countries helping the US wage economic war are considered by Iran as acts of war.
Then oil prices surged to 93.78.
An institution calculated that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a quarter, US inflation in Q4 could rise by 0.6 percentage points. US gasoline prices have already risen 29% compared to a year ago.
When oil prices rise, inflation won't come down. If inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve can't cut interest rates. It might even have to raise rates.
So the question is—why in the same week did $BTC and $ETH ETFs see a net inflow of $2.6 billion?
Bitcoin ETFs accounted for $1.9 billion, with BlackRock alone taking in $1.3 billion. This marks five consecutive trading days of net inflows, the strongest single week since October last year.
What exactly is the market trading?
Traditional logic is: oil price up → inflation expectations up → rate cut expectations down → risk assets down.
But this logic has a premise—that there is no better place for funds to go.
The current situation is: US Treasury yields are rising, the dollar is falling, gold is rising, and Bitcoin is also rising.
Money is not just moving between safe-haven assets; it is withdrawing from somewhere.
US Treasuries.
The US pays $1 trillion in interest annually, with $5.5 trillion in fiscal revenue.
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007.
Borrowing is getting more expensive, and debt is growing.
When the "safest asset" starts to feel unsafe, money looks for new places.
Gold is old.
Bitcoin is new.
The $2.6 billion bought in ETFs this week is no coincidence.
Someone moved first.AAVE VS UNI｜A Straightforward Comparison of Two Major DeFi Blue Chips
Many people confuse AAVE and UNI. Both are DeFi leaders and have token burn narratives, but their underlying logic differs greatly. Here's a thorough explanation:
✅ Different Business Tracks
- UNI (Uniswap): Leading DEX spot trading platform, earning from trading fees. Users generate revenue by buying and selling tokens.
- AAVE (Aave): Leading DeFi lending platform, earning from lending interest spreads, liquidation penalties, and GHO stablecoin yields. Users generate cash flow by depositing and borrowing tokens.
✅ Token Supply & Burn Mechanisms (Key Point!)
UNI
Originally capped at 1 billion tokens, with 100 million burned at once, leaving 900 million; the contract has a built-in 2% annual perpetual inflation;
When the fee switch is enabled, trading revenue automatically goes into the contract, and fees trigger automatic burns. The higher the trading volume, the more tokens are burned, making it an automated deflationary mechanism.
AAVE
Hard cap of 16 million tokens, no fixed annual inflation, no minting out of thin air;
Burning is not automatic by contract but relies on DAO community voting to set an annual buyback budget. The protocol uses revenue to buy back tokens on the secondary market and then burns them. The buyback amount can be adjusted or paused by vote.
✅ Respective Strengths and Weaknesses
🔹UNI
Pros: Huge spot market size, burn mechanism embedded in the contract for automatic execution, simple narrative easy to hype;
Cons: 2% annual inflation is a long-term dilution; when market activity is low, fees drop and burn intensity weakens accordingly.
🔹AAVE
Pros: Fixed total supply with no new inflation, staking AAVE can enter the safety module to serve as protocol risk backstop, token carries real security value;
Cons: Burning depends on DAO voting decisions, not a mandatory permanent mechanism; lending track is highly affected by macro liquidity, with higher black swan risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin's rebound this time came fast and strong.
From just above 60,000 in mid-August, it surged all the way up, reaching a high near 79,500 USD, with a gain of over 20% in just a few days.
After the peak, it did not directly pull back or crash, but oscillated repeatedly between 76,000 and 78,000, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate at this level.
What is truly noteworthy is the capital flow. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for several consecutive days, totaling about 1.92 billion USD from August 17 to 21, with over 600 million USD coming in on the 20th alone.
Institutions kept buying, combined with shorts being forced to cover, which pushed the price to this height. Although the price is now consolidating, the ETF money has not stopped.
High-level oscillation itself is not a bad thing; it is a normal digestion after a rapid rise.
As long as support around 75,000 holds, the structure is not broken. Whether it can move higher later depends mainly on whether capital can continue to flow in and whether it can break through previous highs with volume.
Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the medium-term capital sentiment is clearly more positive than in the past two months. After the consolidation ends, the direction is most likely still upward. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 A very interesting phenomenon in the market recently is:
The higher the US debt, the more attention $XAUT and $BTC receive from investors.
The logic is not complicated.
The US debt has already reached the $40 trillion level, and discussions about fiscal pressure, the credit of the dollar, and the future purchasing power of the currency are heating up.
When these discussions increase, capital naturally seeks alternative assets outside the dollar system.
In the past, many people's first reaction was gold.
But now, more and more people are starting to include Bitcoin on that list.
Because in the eyes of some investors, gold represents a traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin represents a scarce asset of the digital age.
The recent rise in BTC is not driven by a single factor.
On one hand, changes in US fiscal policy have made the market rethink the long-term stability of the dollar system; on the other hand, continuous inflows from ETFs, combined with improved expectations for crypto regulation, have jointly driven Bitcoin's strength.
So the real controversy in the market now is not whether Bitcoin has risen or not, but:
Is Bitcoin a risk asset, or a kind of "insurance" against a dollar credit crisis?
My view is that in the short term, it will still be influenced by risk appetite, but in the long term, more and more capital has begun to treat it as a hedge against dollar credit risk. Bitcoin just showed why liquidity matters more than narratives.
BTC jumped above $79K as spot ETF inflows returned and short positions were squeezed.
The interesting test now isn't the next price target.
It's whether demand remains once forced buying disappears.
If it does, the move looks structural. If not, the rally may have been mostly positioning.$AAVE surged above $144 in a single day, entering a dense previous resistance zone after consecutive weekly gains. The market shows a tug-of-war state driven by technical overbought conditions and spot buying pressure.
After breaking through the $140 level, the daily RSI reached 71, indicating a rapid short-term increase. The upward momentum is currently facing phased resistance from profit-taking.
The protocol treasury's daily automatic repurchase mechanism of about 292 tokens has been launched, combined with deposit size surpassing $30 billion, providing continuous spot support for the bottom price structure.
The substantial buying from cash flow repurchases has pushed the token into a valuation reshaping range, but technical overbought conditions mean bulls need to complete chip rotation above $144 as soon as possible.
If the daily candle can firmly hold above $144, the upward structure will open a channel targeting $175; if there is a volume surge with a long upper shadow at that level, the breakout pattern will be invalidated.
If high-level support weakens, the price may retest the $140 support or even probe the $120 zone; breaking below $120 would undermine the current uptrend driven by cash flow pricing.
If institutional and treasury buying stalls in the overbought zone, the current one-sided premium logic supported by repurchases will be disproven by high-level selling pressure.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the $144 level can effectively convert from a previous strong resistance into a daily-level defensive support.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%🤗 Extra: Urgent reminder, focus on the market tonight
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is about to make a big move, with an emergency press conference scheduled for 2 PM Eastern Time on August 24 (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25), signaling an "Economic D-Day" against Iran.
Original quote: Dawn begins the economic battle, the strongest financial offensive in history.
To put it bluntly: don’t hold heavy positions and stay up late tonight; the market will most likely change significantly by tomorrow morning. Bitcoin’s chart is already weak, RSI is at 93, seriously overbought, and a correction and shakeout are overdue. On top of that, Yellen’s statement about Iran blocking oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz will push oil prices up, suppress inflation, delay Fed rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, tighten liquidity, and Bitcoin will behave like the US stock market—short-term volatility is unavoidable.
Altcoins and junk coins are absolutely off-limits tonight. Market makers are just waiting for a reason to spike the price; sudden news is the easiest way to trap and harvest retail investors. I’ve lost a lot on altcoins in the past and have realized that playing altcoins is just paying an IQ tax.
Now I only play $BTC and $OKB
(PS: The above is all personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk.)$xNVDA is the most stable ballast in the market, but my approach remains unchanged: don't chase before the earnings report, wait until 8/26 to decide.
On 8/21, it closed at 214.72 (-0.98%), pre-market at 218.34, down about 5% from the high of 225.30 on 8/13, consolidating and waiting for direction. Forward PE is about 24, market cap 5.2 trillion, PE 33 is not expensive; 58 institutions are strong buyers, with an average target price of 304-316 (+40%).
Fundamentals are solid: Q1 FY2027 revenue 81.6 billion (+85%), data center 75.2 billion, EPS 1.87 beating expectations. Earnings report after market on Wednesday 8/26, market expects revenue ~92 billion (last quarter 81.6 billion), EPS 2.09. The key is not how impressive the numbers are, but the FCF profit margin and guidance. Last Q1 FCF was 48.5 billion; if this time it falls below the 53% range, valuation will be cut.
Compared to 6 coins: after crypto was forced to cover short positions today and then pulled back, NVDA remains steady following its own earnings logic. It no longer plays with beta. But before 8/26, what’s missing is "delivery"—buying on a pullback after an earnings beat or buying deeply on a miss; betting on direction now is just giving away free food.$ZEC Grayscale has only submitted the application, it has not been approved!
Remember how many times the Bitcoin ETF was rejected back then?
Zcash is still a privacy coin, which makes regulators more sensitive, so the probability of rejection is much higher than approval. Do you think it will pass?
August 25 is just the expected listing date, not the official trading date, don't get confused. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC halving bonus is not a get-rich-quick code (August 24)
Many newcomers think that the price will skyrocket immediately after the halving. In fact, historical data shows us that after the halving, the market will experience a long period of volatile consolidation and will not surge straight away.
After the last halving, there was also a deep correction that cleared out a large amount of high-leverage positions before the big bull market began. Now, some time has passed since the halving, and much of the supply contraction logic has already been priced in by the market. Do not treat the halving as an all-powerful bullish reason.
Halving only changes the supply; what truly drives the market up is the continuous inflow of incremental funds afterward. If external capital does not keep up, even the best narratives will struggle to sustain. Do not blindly hold based on halving logic; market signals always take precedence over theoretical logic.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC surged 23% in a week, ETH rose 27%, this is not a rebound, it's a change in trend.
BTC jumped directly from 64,000 to 79,000, a 23% weekly increase, the strongest week since March 2023. ETH simultaneously broke above 2400, with a weekly gain of over 27%. After breaking out of the range below 67,000 for several months, the shorts were swept away in one wave, with the largest single-day short liquidation in history of $1.44 billion directly wiped out.
Why the surge?
Three things combined: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increasing the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, US bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and the "currency devaluation trade" restarted. Institutional ETF buying accelerated, with spot ETF inflows of 1.92 billion in a single week, the highest since October 2025. Additionally, BTC's correlation with gold rose to 0.5, and the market began pricing it as a safe-haven asset.
Altcoins are following suit.
ETH and XRP outperformed BTC in altcoin gains. The SEC and CFTC are each advancing rulemaking without waiting for the CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty is decreasing, and capital is starting to flow into altcoins.
Risks have not disappeared.
BTC is still 43% below last year's high, Strategy has stopped buying and is still selling coins for cash. The last time we saw a 23% weekly surge was in 2023. But to truly confirm a trend reversal, more time is needed for validation. Next Wednesday, August 26, Nvidia will release its earnings report. I've compiled a comprehensive analysis, and let's break it down together. We'll discuss the capital flow in the options market, look at what the options chain pricing suggests about the potential stock price volatility, and later cover Morningstar's fair valuation as well as the market's consensus expectations for Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share. This report will directly influence the overall market trend, corporate capital expenditures, the entire semiconductor sector, and all AI-related trades. Too many companies' fates are tied to Nvidia, and the results of this earnings report will have a tangible impact on the entire market. I hope this content will provide some insights for everyone. As the world's leading AI chip manufacturer, this earnings report is a decisive event for the technology and semiconductor industries. If the report significantly beats or misses expectations, the volatility won't be limited to Nvidia alone. It is now the company with the highest market capitalization globally and the core driver of this AI wave. Analysts forecast revenue around $91.8 billion, which basically aligns with the company's guidance of $91 billion plus or minus 2%, and the market consensus expects earnings per share of $2.07. On Monday, AI sentiment in the market warmed up again, with Anthropic releasing a very optimistic 2028 revenue forecast targeting $190-200 billion, reigniting enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, and Micron's stock price also rose accordingly. Compared to the same period last year, revenue growth is expected to reach 96%, nearly $92 billion in revenue, this scale and growthZEC’s fundamentals still have a major trust overhang: the Orchard flaw was real and existed for years, while cryptographic proof that it was never exploited wasn’t possible. The emergency fix addressed the vulnerability, but the supply-integrity question remains important.
Bearish take: a strong price rebound doesn’t erase the unresolved trust issue. ZEC can stay volatile, and chasing the rally purely on momentum is risky.【Strategy Starts Selling BTC, Has $MSTR's Investment Logic Changed?】
Michael Saylor has not released the Saylor Tracker for two consecutive weeks. Strategy has also recently stopped buying $BTC and instead sold about 6.59 million shares of MSTR, raising approximately $653.1M, of which $650M was placed into USD reserves.
More notably, the company also sold 1,690 BTC at a low price, cashing out about $108.6M to repurchase STRC. This indicates that the original cycle of "issuing more shares to buy more BTC" has partially shifted to "issuing MSTR, selling BTC, and maintaining cash reserves and credit products stable."
As BTC returns to around $77,000, the 840,447 BTC held by Strategy is now above the average cost of about $75,385. However, unrealized gains do not mean structural risks have disappeared, because MSTR investors still bear dilution, dividend expenses, management decisions, and mNAV volatility.
I still prefer directly holding BTC and $ETH; if self-custody is not possible, then consider spot ETFs. Investing in MSTR is no longer just a bet on BTC appreciation but also a bet on whether Strategy's capital operations can be sustained long-term.
If MSTR no longer continues to increase BTC holdings, are you still willing to bear this additional layer of risk? Although I don't want to look, some people are still asking, so I'll explain.
How hard is it to play secondary long positions now? In the past, retail investors didn't even know what OI or FDV meant; they just followed whatever others shouted. But now, many people can read the data, and only this group still plays. They all want to compete with the whales, but as retail investors get smarter, the whales get even smarter.
Some people check the data daily, so whales can definitely manipulate the data. For small market cap coins with high control, what surface data can they manipulate?
OI can be faked by wash trading, splitting positions, and moving across exchanges.
Liquidation data can be guided: placing large orders to induce liquidations, or placing opposite orders on major exchanges to mislead retail investors, then triggering liquidations on other exchanges.
Volume: no need to say, just fake it.
Funding rates: can be controlled through wash trading.
On-chain active addresses: can be made to look however they want.
Retail investors are evolving, and so are the whales. When you see data, you must think about what the data is really trying to express and what the whales' intentions are. If you only look at the surface, it's easy to get cut. Of course, I guess I've been cut recently too from all this guessing 🥹
$BTC Exactly—after a move from $500 → $860, ZEC can look extremely tempting to short, but a strong momentum move can stay irrational longer than expected.
The bigger point is that ZEC’s rally doesn’t necessarily need a fresh ZEC-specific catalyst. Strong BTC/ETH momentum can pull higher-beta, smaller-cap assets along with it.
So the safer read is: don’t short simply because the price looks “too high.” Wait for momentum to actually break before assuming the reversal.#Kashkari says US debt is not malfunctioning, can long-term bond repurchases solve the root problem?
Kashkari stated that the current US debt is only seeing rising yields, the market is not malfunctioning, and the Federal Reserve remains focused on controlling inflation, without adjusting policies specifically to suppress debt rates.
The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases can only improve liquidity of old debt, which is an emergency fiscal operation, not QE, and does not address the root cause of the US's high deficit bond issuance; it treats the symptoms, not the root cause. After the news, long-term bond yields briefly fell, then rebounded again, and the market has seen that the repurchase scale is limited.
Market reflection:
$BTC｜$76630, resistance at 79000, support at 73800. High long-term bond yields continue to pressure risk assets; if yields surge again, the market is prone to correction.
$ETH｜$2430, resistance at 2500, support at 2380. Altcoins are more sensitive to changes in US bond yields.
Going forward, focus on the trend of long-term bond yields; if they surge again, even if crypto sentiment is hot, be wary of macroeconomic suppression. Repurchases are more of a short-term emotional buffer and cannot change the larger debt contradictions.
Personal market record only, does not constitute any investment advice. $SNDK New week, where will SanDisk go?
OK! Brothers are back, had two waves of mainstream gains over the weekend. Now let's talk about SanDisk. The storage sector collectively declined, with Hynix being the hardest hit. After these two days of digestion, the profit-taking from SanDisk's previous surge has mostly been released. The current position is an opportunity for you to get on board.
The fundamentals haven't changed; it's still very strong, plus it still distributes money to shareholders, indicating strong financial strength. Big players and institutions have already made their moves in advance, so we can't fall behind, right? SanDisk's long-term blueprint is still intimidating, but no rush to act yet. It's expected to first reach around 1525, then enter to bottom-fish.
Strategy: Light long position around 1525, with a target tentatively set at 1600. If it breaks above the previous high, the space will open up, and then consider adding positions! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $SOL was really strong last week, rising from 75 to 93, but don’t get too excited above 90
The 350ms slot upgrade (Agave 4.2) landed on 8/21, spot SOL ETF inflows have exceeded $1.16 billion, and BSOL attracted over $20M in a single week; even more intense is the governance vote that started on Sunday, where SGP2 doubles the annual deflation and SGP3 raises daily burns from 648 to 9,000 SOL, directly tightening the supply side. This is not just hype, the chain is truly changing.
However, the RSI has reached 82 in the overbought zone, with a 24h high-low range of 87.58-102.74 showing full volatility, indicating significant resistance from trapped positions and profit-taking between 96-100. The 200-day EMA at 89 was just tested, marking a weekly-level trend reversal, but the short-term deviation is too large.
Essentially, this SOL rally still follows the "Treasury buyback + weak dollar" liquidity pulse, with a beta close to 1.4, lacking the pure independent momentum of OKB/HYPE. Once BTC turns down, SOL will fall faster than anyone else.
SOL has the greatest elasticity among the 6 coins, but high elasticity means it can be brutal on both ends, so brothers, set your stop losses well. This earnings slate is less a referendum on AI enthusiasm than a test of where monetization is actually accumulating. Nvidia, Synopsys, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta report Aug 26, followed by Marvell on Aug 27.
The key signal is the gap between infrastructure demand and software conversion. Strong compute, networking and chip-design activity alongside weak software orders would suggest value remains concentrated upstream. Evidence of revenue traction on both sides would make the broader valuation case more durable.
Not advice, just analysis.
#AIEarningsWatch#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
$NVDA Nvidia earnings after market close on Wednesday, this is the most important AI industry chain report this week.
The market expects Q2 revenue of $91.9 billion to $92.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 96%. The data center business is expected to contribute $85.4 billion, up 107% year-on-year, with gross margin expected to remain around 75%. Citigroup believes Nvidia has locked in all HBM supply for 2026 and 2027, and AI network component shipments are also accelerating. Jefferies expects the Vera Rubin series to become the dominant revenue source in Q1 of fiscal 2028.
If the earnings exceed expectations, the semiconductor equipment chain will most likely rise. If it only meets expectations, the market may continue to diverge. Nvidia's earnings are seen as a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to hit 8000 points, but expectations are already very high; only exceeding expectations will be a surprise, meeting expectations will not be rewarded.
$AXTI is still stuck at 67, entered at 78 and did not exit at 97, now the grid is paused after a pullback, with an unrealized loss of 51 USD. But I do not plan to exit at this position because the next few days may be the real turning point. If Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, AXTI will most likely recover.$PEPE Today saw a slight pullback of about 2%, with the price near 0.000004. A few days ago, the rally was quite strong, rising from a low point all the way up. Now that we've entered a consolidation phase, my mood has calmed down a bit. From the data, the open interest fluctuates significantly, with a clear spike and pullback. Currently, its nominal value hovers around 1 billion. There was no continued sharp increase, nor a crash-like decline, indicating that funds were still in the market, just that there was no large-scale new inflow. But the change in the long-short account ratio is quite dramatic. From a very low point in the early session, it surged all the way to above 2.2, with long positions accounting for an absolute dominance. While prices are pulling back, long positions are increasing sharply—this divergence is quite obvious. This indicates that during the earlier rally, many bears were cleared out, and now during the pullback phase, new bulls are entering to buy in. This structure may not trigger another sharp rally in the short term, but the support below is stronger than it appears. At this level, I won't rush to chase higher. It's more likely to wait until the consolidation ends, or after the bull-bear ratio shows some pullback and absorbs the overheated bullish sentiment, then see if there are better buying opportunities at the dip. If open interest can rise again and the price holds above the current range, the probability of further increases will be higher. Conversely, if the long-short ratio quickly turns downward and open interest drops, the correction may continue for a while. I'm still watching for now, first watching tonight's positions and long-short ratio changes before deciding whether to make a move. After all, today is Monday, unless something special happensUpdated on August 24, strong inflow into ETFs
1. ETF market: Last week, BTC net inflow was 28,620 coins, Ethereum net inflow was 327,800
Last week was all net inflow, with scale similar to the rise in May. Ethereum's data is better than in May, so it makes sense that Ethereum's price is stronger
2. Fear and Greed Index: 73, Greed
3. btc.d index: 59.65
4. M2 indicator: This week shows a small rebound amid high-level oscillation, continuing until September 1
Summary: Last week, gold and Bitcoin surged sharply, while the stock market oscillated or slightly declined. From a macro perspective, this is due to Basent's statement expanding long-term treasury repos, causing the US dollar to weaken, leading investors to flock to hard assets, namely gold and Bitcoin, compounded by Trump's positive remarks about the crypto space.
Personally, this wave feels more like a rotation of funds. After the storage sector emerged some time ago, funds directly flowed into the crypto space and gold. Whether the bull market will fully expand and continue depends on whether this rotation of funds can fully revitalize the market and form a bull market structure, completely breaking through May's 82,000
Therefore, this week's ETF market is crucial, and incremental funds play a decisive role
$BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC at the second weekly threshold, can the real demand after the short squeeze hold up?
How should we interpret the gap between the apparent rebound and the actual demand?
Last week, BTC fluctuated around the $77,000~78,000 range, once approaching $79,500 before retreating. ETH remained above $2,500.
The market's initial reaction can be explained by a short squeeze, but a more important change is the return of ETF demand. Last week, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs was about $2.6 billion. This means it’s not the liquidation pressure of short-term bets, but institutional funds are building new positions.
The question is whether this inflow signals a trend reversal or a one-time rebalancing. A short squeeze can quickly push prices up but cannot create sustained momentum. In contrast, the net inflow of ETFs acts as structural demand supporting the price ceiling. The market is currently in a transition from the former to the latter paradigm. The $2.6 billion figure is not just a simple inflow but can be interpreted as a leading indicator of risk appetite recovery. $ETH $SOL #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Every market has a moment where two completely opposite stories both look correct at the same time. Bitcoin is sitting in exactly that moment right now, and the data backing each side is stronger than the usual social-media noise around it. A Number Most People Aren't Watching Forget price for a second. Look underneath it, at what's called the realized price — essentially the average cost basis of every coin in circulation, based on the last time each one changed hands. As of mid-August, indepenComparison of the stock of two types of scarce assets, with a long-term valuation model providing key forecasts
From the perspective of global reserves, the official gold reserves held by the United States account for about 3.8% of the total global gold stock.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin hoarded by the listed company MSTR accounts for 4.1% of BTC's maximum total supply, with a single company's holdings already exceeding the global share of U.S. gold reserves.
Combining the power-law growth model projection, as Bitcoin adoption continues to increase and new mining output declines year by year, industry estimates believe that by 2035, Bitcoin's overall market value is expected to surpass that of gold.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 BTC week 2 checkpoint, after the short squeeze, does the real demand hold? How should we interpret the gap between the superficial rally and the actual demand? Last week, BTC fluctuated around the $77,000~78,000 range, once approaching $79,500 before pulling back. ETH is maintaining above $2,500. The market's initial reaction can be explained by a short squeeze, but the more important change is the return of ETF demand. Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion. This indicates not the liquidation pressure of short-term bets, but that institutional funds are setting new positions. The question is whether this inflow signals a trend reversal or a one-time rebalancing. A short squeeze quickly drives prices up but does not create sustainability. On the other hand, ETF net inflows act as structural demand supporting the price ceiling. The current market is in a transitional phase from the former to the latter paradigm. The $2.6 billion figure can be read as more than just a simple inflow; it is a leading indicator of risk appetite recovery. This week If you felt you slept soundly last night, it's probably because you didn't have any open positions. But for about 190,000 traders worldwide, last night's market was not just volatile—it was a merciless financial massacre. Let's look at this chilling set of data: $1.575 trillion worth of positions were wiped out (that's enough to erase the GDP of a medium-sized country). The most dramatic part is that although $310 million in long positions were liquidated during the pullback, the real headline was the $1.27 billion in shorts—they bet Bitcoin wouldn't rise, but the 22% weekly surge sent them straight to the ICU.
The market has entered an irrational frenzy phase. When shorts collectively get liquidated, their forced buy orders fuel the price surge, creating a death spiral of rising prices triggering more liquidations, only this time the shorts are the ones dying.
1. Bitcoin soared, and the stock prices of Coinbase and Robinhood took off (up 8% and 14%, respectively). The logic is simple: whether you made huge profits or suffered big losses, exchanges rake in massive commissions. In this market, traffic equals money, and the US stock market's reaction proves mainstream capital is fully returning to the crypto narrative.
2. Liquidating so many positions in a short time means the market's leverage has been forcibly reset. The market will be very fragile in the short term; even a slight disturbance could cause severe volatility because everyone's stop-loss levels were wiped out by this wave.
*Don'tHaven't talked about $SNDK for a long time, today with the US stock market closed, it first pushed the premium down to negative four by itself. I watched it all night and found this trend quite interesting.
📰 News: Cramer directly urged not to follow the crowd to sell SanDisk just because Druckenmiller sold it. Gao Yi's latest holdings instead significantly increased positions in Micron and SanDisk. There are differences in the news, but institutions have not given up on this line.
🔧 Technical: The daily RSI14 is still strong at 66.9, MACD shows a golden cross but the red bars are shortening, price fell below MA7 but stayed above MA25, the 7/25 moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, more like a short-term pullback.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.35%, with the US stock market closed overnight lacking the support of the underlying stocks, the SNDK token itself fell first to a premium of -4.01%, sentiment was hit harder than the underlying stock.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. The storage cycle and institutional accumulation line have not changed, the negative premium combined with the technical pullback not breaking key moving averages, at this position I prefer to watch for subsequent sentiment recovery rather than a trend deterioration.
📊 Token 1,532.08 (-3.78%) | Underlying stock 1,596.08 (-0.28%) | Premium -4.01% | US stock market closed overnight
#USStockTokens
#StorageChips
#Semiconductors $FLOW is up around 10% today while most of the market is barely moving. 👀
The bigger story: Flow recently raised transaction fees 2–4x while reducing new FLOW issuance as network usage covers more staking costs.
That gives today's breakout a real tokenomics angle — higher activity can mean less dilution.
Sustainable repricing, or another rotation trade?Three places in Asia are accelerating the adoption of stablecoin payments—what does this mean for U Card users?
Recently, stablecoin regulations in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan have been advancing. Singapore has already issued licenses to institutions like Circle, Hong Kong approved the first two stablecoin licenses in April, and Japan's travel rule has added five new applicable regions.
What is the practical impact of these changes on U Card users?
The most direct effect: more local fiat-backed stablecoins. AUDD (Australian Dollar), XSGD (Singapore Dollar), JPYC (Japanese Yen), EURC (Euro)—if a U Card can directly hold and settle with these local stablecoins, cross-border spending will skip a currency exchange step and reduce spread costs.
Previously, when using a U Card in Southeast Asia, the transaction path was basically USDT→USD→local currency, involving two currency exchanges and two rounds of loss. In the future, if you spend directly with local stablecoins, it will be a one-step process.
When choosing a card, pay attention to which settlement currencies it supports and whether it offers direct local currency channels.Today, all three major US stock indices surged simultaneously
$HOOD up 13.7% in one day, closing at 108, with a trillion-dollar market cap gaining over ten points in a single day. The driver is crypto; Bitcoin just finished its strongest week in over three years, and Robinhood's crypto fees are following the volume. We need to watch if this volume can extend to non-crypto business, not just rely on crypto.
The entire quantum sector soared, with $IQM up 14.8%, $RGTI 11.5%, $QBTS 8.5%, $QUBT 9.6%. Five or six names all gained double digits, indicating where the capital is betting. Next, it’s about who has real revenue and who is still telling stories.
Miners also moved: $UEC up 14.4%, $USAR 12.6%, $MP 9.1%, $UUUU 8.9%, even $SCCO, a trillion-dollar copper miner, rose 8.7%. Uranium and rare earths rallied together; watch for actual changes in uranium prices and the rare earth supply chain.
Turning to Asia-Pacific, it’s a different picture. The Shanghai Composite at 3877 fell 0.71%, the Shenzhen Component dropped 2.44%, the Hang Seng at 25465 declined 2.09%, and Samsung plunged 9% due to shareholder returns falling short of expectations.
On the crypto side, BTC is above 77,000, up 0.8%, ETH at 2444 up 2.76%, waiting for direction.
This week, focus on Nvidia’s earnings and Jackson Hole. The former will decide if the AI sector continues to thrive, the latter will determine the interest rate narrative.
The above does not constitute investment advice, only market observation notes. Arthur Hayes recently bought ETHFI for $1.17 million at a price of $0.62, whereas four months ago he chose to sell at $0.44. On paper, this is a loss recovery operation—re-entering at a 41% higher cost. But if you only see it as an investment, you misunderstand the real intention behind it. This money is essentially a "face cost." ETHFI just launched perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid platform, which is an ecosystem project that Hayes is deeply involved in and publicly supports. As the most influential opinion leader in this ecosystem, launching a new product within his own system, if he didn’t put up some funds as a show of support, community confidence would waver, and public opinion would question his loyalty to the ecosystem. So this purchase is less an investment decision and more a public statement: I support my ecosystem, I trust my platform. $1.17 million is almost negligible to Hayes. But its leverage in spreading influence is extremely high. The market constantly watches his wallet address, and every on-chain action is magnified infinitely. When he buys, the market interprets it as "bullish"; when he trades on Hyperliquid, the market interprets it as "liquidity is reliable." A trivial capital input brings widespread discussion, community confidence, and platform endorsement—the cost-effectiveness of this "PR expense" far exceeds traditional advertising. What’s even more worth digging into than this ETHFI purchase is Hayes’ overall strategy shiftAfter the escalation of US-Iran sanctions, I believe the market's real concern shouldn't be oil prices suddenly rising a few points one day, but rather energy dragging inflation back up.
Currently, the valuations of many assets in the global market are based on an important assumption: that inflation will gradually be controlled and that monetary policy can become more accommodative in the future.
But energy is precisely the variable most likely to disrupt this scenario.
Rising crude oil prices won't just stop at the gas station.
Costs in transportation, chemicals, manufacturing, aviation, and even food may gradually transmit along the industrial chain.
If this pressure persists, central banks will face a very awkward situation: the economy needs easing, but inflation limits policy space.
So now when I look at crude oil, I don't just see a commodity trade.
It’s more like a thermometer hanging over global risk assets.
The real danger of oil prices isn't the rise itself, but the sudden rise when everyone is betting on easing.
If energy inflation returns, the pricing logic of stocks, gold, BTC, and even bonds could be disrupted again.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 That's indeed the case. If 57700 is the bear market bottom, without considering any super cycle or other yet-to-happen events, and purely based on past cycles for a rough estimate, the top would be around 180000, with spot returns roughly about three times.
Meanwhile, MSTR continuously increases its BTC holdings through issuing shares and bonds, amplifying the BTC exposure per share during the bull market. At the same time, the mNAV premium expansion further creates positive feedback. Currently, mNAV is around 1, indicating the market gives it very little premium. If you believe the bear market is over and the bull market is starting, you can buy in now.
However, for most people who only interact with crypto platforms, the threshold for US stocks is relatively high. So, considering ordinary people and beginners, let's prioritize based on holding stability, returns, and entry barriers:
BTC spot > BTC coin-margined futures ≈ MSTR > BTC USD-margined futures
In a bull market, the first few are the preferred allocations, and the last one, BTC USD-margined futures, is undoubtedly the worst choice.Ethereum surged 30% this week, with the price approaching the $2,500 mark, instantly igniting market sentiment 🔥. But what truly deserves attention may not be this sharp rally itself, but the subtle changes in the underlying capital structure. Data shows that in the past week, spot ETF net inflows reached as high as $697 million, a figure far exceeding the $110 million short liquidation scale. Leverage squeezes can ignite rallies, but only sustained new capital can drive the trend further. Short-term liquidations are just catalysts; ETFs and spot buying are the fuel. Currently, ETH is testing the critical psychological and technical resistance at $2,500, with the market entering a sensitive phase of long-short competition. My focus is on whether ETF and spot demand can withstand selling pressure when the first wave of profit-taking arrives. If buying support is strong, this rally could evolve from a pure short squeeze into a genuine capital rotation, attracting more allocation funds; conversely, if buying quickly dries up, the previously accumulated leveraged positions could collapse just as rapidly, triggering a sharp correction. Historical experience shows that the greatest danger in a rapid rally is not the trend reversal itself, but the self-reinforcing cycle of leverage. The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the fragility of the derivatives market cannot be ignored. Investors need to closely monitor ETF capital flows and spot trading volume changes; these two indicators will determine whether ETH can hold above $2,500 and confirm the sustainability of the new upward trend. Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, leverage trading carries extreme risk, and the content of this article does not constituteTHE AUGUST RALLY WAS NOT FAKE.
It was a two-engine move.
The bond-market shock broke Bitcoin out of its $62K–$67K range.
Shorts were forced to cover.
More than $4B in bearish crypto positions were liquidated.
Then ETF buyers added real spot demand underneath it.
That is why calling for instant $33K is amateur hour.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Understanding the US Treasury Repo: Just a Breather, Definitely Not Easing
The US Treasury repo is merely to ease market liquidity, not the rumored easing or loosening; it is a temporary fix that does not address the core issues of US fiscal and debt problems.
The decline in short-term interest rates provides a window of volatility relief for $BTC and $ETH, but this is an emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal, with future movements still constrained by inflation and US Treasury auction data.
The continued strength of gold already indicates the market's stance: short-term stability is credible, but long-term fiscal risks remain, and the logic of monetary safe-haven demand is still in play.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Today $OKB has some real good news, but my first reaction is: ladies, don’t rush in yet.
On 8/24, OKX CEO announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund, and Circle’s USDC is also launching on X Layer, opening the stablecoin channel.
I’m writing this because I’m afraid you’ll rush to catch the peak again, so let me clarify the logic:
1. Once the news broke, OKB surged to 212, but the ATH created on 8/21 was 239.91, then it retraced back to around 110. The cross-source price gap is huge (OKX converter shows ~110, news-driven surge to 212), indicating a massive divergence between bulls and bears. Messari has solid data: since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one still leading from the 2021 peak, with a hard cap of 21 million (65.25 million burned) plus ICE strategic investment (valued at 25 billion), so the fundamentals are indeed there.
2. But the retracement after the 239 high isn’t over yet; today’s surge is a news pulse, not a trend restart. The key for the $1 billion fund is whether it can convert into real on-chain activity, not just the money itself.
3. OKB is one of the few with its own story (deflation + ecosystem + compliance), but in the short term, it’s been pushed too high by the good news, chasing it now is just carrying the news hype.BTC climbed from 64K all the way to 79.5K, ETH rose over 25% in seven days before pulling back—is this rally really just driven by emotion? Let's look at a few key numbers first, then let me share my judgment. - The driving force comes from three forces: U.S. Treasury liquidity release, sustained net inflows from ETFs, and short squeezes. - But the problem is that the derivatives market has already shown "overheated" signals: high funding rates indicate crowding of bulls and the risk of a reverse squeeze is accumulating. - BTC's current key observation zone is between 74K and 76K; as long as this position is maintained, the trend structure remains intact. - ETH needs to hold above 2.3K–2.35K, while selling pressure should truly slow down rather than rely on a bullish candlestick to pretend to stabilize. What exactly is the market trading right now? I think it's not just about rate cut expectations, but also about pricing in the path of "liquidity re-expansion" in advance. ETF money is slow money; short-term rallies are mostly due to targeted clearing of the futures market, with short covering pushing prices beyond a reasonable range. The bullish path is like this: if BTC breaks through 80K with increased volume and ETF inflows do not decline, this wave will upgrade from a rebound to a trend switch, with altcoins taking over during BTC's sideways movement. The risk path must also be clear: if 76K falls, a pullback to 72K is not impossible. After all, the support for this rally is leveraged capital, not spot buying. If the rate continues to rise, the bulls themselves will become counterparts. From what I observed, the biggest fear now is not missing outCoinbase's negative premium has turned positive for the first time after more than two months, and with the market sentiment warming up, the pressure has also eased significantly. However, a large part of last week's volume surge was due to short liquidation covering; now both sides are gradually returning to balance, and the upward momentum has weakened somewhat.
From a mid-term trend perspective, I personally am reluctant to chase a broad rally. Looking upward, reaching around 80k would be great, as this is the weighted cost of ETF holders overall plus the weekly supply peak.
There are too many misleading messages during the rise. Over the weekend, I also cleared some spot positions opened at 60k. Even if the 50k level is a bottom, there is still a chance to see Bitcoin below 65k;
Currently, in a strong state, there is no need to rush in and try to catch the top. The 81-83k range is the last dance for the bears! Whether it's a bull run or a bear trap will be decided based on the depth of the pullback or whether the breakout occurs.Do you think the earnings season is over and things are getting boring? The next three months are packed with major events
From now until November, the US stock market and crypto will consecutively face several key moments that could change market pricing.
If you're preparing for the upcoming market moves, you must remember this timeline first.
August 26｜NVIDIA Earnings Report
The first shot is NVIDIA $NVDA.
NVIDIA has confirmed it will release its FY2027 Q2 earnings after market close on August 26.
The biggest question about AI in the market has shifted from "Is there demand for AI?" to the next step: With such massive capital expenditure, how fast can growth continue?
So the important points this time are data center revenue, gross margin, next quarter guidance, and demand related to Blackwell/Rubin.
If NVIDIA continues to provide strong guidance, AI, optical communications, storage, and servers could all see another round of valuation gains.
If earnings are good but guidance starts to slow, be cautious about profit-taking after the earnings season peak.
NVIDIA's report that night could very well decide how the last leg of the tech stock rally at the end of August plays out.
September 4–11｜Nonfarm Payrolls, PPI, CPI Released Consecutively
Next, market attention will quickly shift from AI to macroeconomic data.
September 4: Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: PPI
September 11: CPI
This is the official schedule released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
These three data sets will directly influence market expectations for the September Fed meeting.
If employment cools down and inflation remains moderate, US Treasury yields could adjust downward, making tech stocks and crypto much more comfortable.
If employment remains strong and inflation picks up again, long-term interest rate pressure may re-emerge, causing pain first for high-valuation tech and highly leveraged crypto.
So the critical window to watch is September 4–16.
September 15–16｜FOMC Meeting
Then comes the most important meeting of September.
The Federal Reserve has confirmed the next FOMC will be held on September 15–16, and this time it will also release new economic projections.
The market will focus on three things: the interest rate decision, Powell's wording, and the dot plot.
The earlier nonfarm and CPI data set market expectations; this meeting will stamp those expectations.
If the Fed signals a more dovish policy, risk assets will receive very important liquidity support in Q4.
If inflation risks are reinforced, September could become a true washout window.
Late September–October｜Anthropic IPO Window
Next is a variable that is easily underestimated: the Anthropic IPO.
Anthropic officially confirmed on June 1 that it secretly submitted an S-1 registration to the SEC.
IPO preparations are still underway, including equity structure and pre-IPO financing arrangements.
But so far, Anthropic has not announced a confirmed listing date, issue price, or size.
So late September and October can only be seen as potential windows.
Once finalized, it will become a very important public market pricing event for AI valuations this year.
The market will for the first time answer with real money: How much should a top-tier large model company be worth?
This answer will also influence valuations of NVIDIA, cloud computing, optical communications, storage, and the entire AI industry chain.
October 27–28｜Second FOMC Meeting
After September, the Fed will meet again on October 27–28.
This means even if September doesn't finalize the direction, there will be another re-pricing at the end of October.
And this is just one week before the US midterm elections.
Macro, earnings, and politics will truly collide for the first time.
November 3｜US Midterm Elections
Finally, November 3 is the US midterm election.
This is the date announced by the FEC for the 2026 federal elections.
Starting September 4, the US officially enters the 60-day electioneering communications period before the election.
By then, the market will increasingly focus on fiscal policy, taxation, regulation, AI, crypto regulation, and the congressional power structure for the next two years.
So looking forward from now, the market will roughly experience three pricing shifts:
Late August trades AI earnings
September trades Fed and liquidity
October–November trades earnings, IPOs, and US politics
The next three months are unlikely to be a smooth upward curve.
The market will be tough and taxing.
NVIDIA will decide if AI can continue to support valuations
Nonfarm, CPI, and FOMC will decide if money is expensive or cheap
Anthropic will reprice AI companies
Finally, the midterm elections will put the biggest political uncertainty of Q4 to rest
The real big moves often hide in the expectation gaps between these eventsIs Bitcoin in a bull recovery or a bear trap? Response is more important than prediction: next step action plan
This article is very important, please read carefully. Recently, Bitcoin surged significantly, and everyone is discussing whether it is a bull recovery or a bear market rebound. The position you hold determines your mindset: those with positions hope for a bull recovery, while those sidelined hope it’s just a bear market rebound. Emotional trading is a major enemy; no one can predict the market. In trading, preparing to respond is more important than predicting.
Bitcoin likely has two possible trends, as shown in the chart:
The first is the green trend, indicating a market reversal. There is a classic but simple 123 rule: if the price can hold above the key resistance at 78,000-80,000 and form higher highs and higher lows, then the market reverses, and the rare bull market arrives early, following the green line.
Response: Personally, my short position at 78,200 will stop loss at 82,500; the spot holdings bought at 63,000 (BTC and ETH) will continue to be held. At the same time, look for opportunities to add positions and go long. The end of September to October and the end of this year to early next year are the 80-day cycle bottom and 20-week cycle bottom respectively. If the bull market comes, these two time points are opportunities to add positions. Tools like the pitchfork can be used to find support for operations. Once the bull market arrives, there will be enough time to add positions, so no need to be anxious.
The second is the red trend, where Bitcoin fails to hold the resistance level and fails to form higher highs and higher lows, so the reversal fails.
Response: Personally, I will continue to hold short positions and spot holdings (the plan for spot is to reduce some positions in reasonable zones and clear out in expensive and very expensive zones). The price may break new lows or may not, with repeated oscillations forming a bottom. Actually, whether it’s the first or second trend, the operation strategy doesn’t change much: add positions respectively at the cycle bottoms in late September to October and year-end. If the price falls into the very cheap zone of my personal valuation range chart, that is an excellent price to add positions.
Although I have positions, I will not be affected by market noise. Prediction itself has little meaning because no one can always predict correctly. Scientific trading is about preparing to respond to opportunities. What I am sure of is that we will have enough opportunities to add positions later; just patiently wait for signals.
My subjective view: If I must give a personal opinion, I am cautious about a direct market reversal. The market may oscillate longer than we expect because the cycle bottom in September-October is still ahead. But if this judgment is wrong, I will admit it, and it’s okay because it does not affect the subsequent operation strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, the market previously speculated on the US Treasury bond repurchase and yield control news, which briefly suppressed the 10-year US Treasury yield, but the benefit lasted only 1-2 days before yields quickly rebounded to 4.7%. Interested readers can check this out.
If the US can continuously implement Treasury repurchase policies, the effect is equivalent to marginal quantitative easing (QE), which will provide sustained upward momentum for equity markets and commodities. But if no supporting policies are implemented in the coming months, market enthusiasm will quickly fade, the previous rise was emotional speculation, and the market will fall again with a new low point emerging. Stay tuned!
In this round of broad market rally (except US stocks), my current favorite remains gold and silver. The cycle bottom around September is still ahead, making it a good time to add positions. In fact, I have long been optimistic about gold and silver and will look for more opportunities to add positions during future pullbacks.
The above are all personal views and operations and do not constitute trading advice. BTC is consolidating narrowly around $77,100, ETH is under pressure near $2,450, and the overall market is cautious. Short-term support levels to watch are $76,000 and $2,400, with resistance at $78,000 and $2,500. Volatility is narrowing, so it is recommended to hold light positions and wait for a clear direction. If BTC breaks above $78,000 with volume, follow the trend; if it falls below $76,000, risk control must be strict. ETH shows a clear correlation, so pay attention to exchange rate fluctuations. October might be the main upward wave
Right now is just the warm-up before the bull market
Lately, I've been increasingly feeling
that the real excitement might be in October.
BTC has rebounded from around $58,000 to nearly $80,000, ETF funds are flowing back, the US Treasury is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases, and the market's biggest concern about interest rate hikes is starting to cool down. On the other hand, Trump continues to push the CLARITY Act, and the US regulatory direction on cryptocurrencies is clearly friendlier than in previous years.
October has historically been one of BTC's strongest months. Since 2013, most Octobers have ended with gains, which is why the term "Uptober" has been popular.
What's more interesting now is that BTC has already pulled market sentiment back, but many altcoins are still stuck at low levels.
If BTC can hold steady in September, and funds start to spread from BTC to ETH, altcoins, and meme coins, October might be when this rally truly goes wild.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP