Orbit Post Sitemap
ETC showed a weak trend on the day, basically consistent with the characteristics of established POW assets in a risk-off environment: it has trading history and miner narratives, but the ecological growth is relatively limited, making it easier for funds to treat it as a phase rotation asset. The recent overall pullback in mainstream markets has also amplified ETC's correlated volatility. Whether it can show stronger resilience later largely depends on ETH ecosystem sentiment, POW sector heat, and the overall market rebound strength; without external catalysts, the trend will most likely remain dominated by oscillation and tactical play. $ETCNIGHT showed a relatively weak trend on the day, with limited trading volume, indicating that the market is still cautious about the privacy infrastructure narrative. Midnight focuses on the combination of privacy and compliance, a direction with long-term discussion value, but short-term funds are more concerned about token releases, the launch of ecosystem products, and actual developer usage. The recent overall market pressure has also made new projects more susceptible to capital withdrawal. Only if there are developments in application partnerships, testnet data, or ecosystem incentives in the future could there be new catalysts for market sentiment. $NIGHTWhen Morgan Stanley marked SpaceX's blueprint as completing in 2040, Musk said his tower crane could top out by 2033 — this isn't a race of speed, but a generational gap in structural plans.
As an architect who has spent half a lifetime buried in blueprints, I immediately saw where the load-bearing walls of this valuation model lie: launch cadence, Starlink expansion, AI revenue. These three pillars determine whether that $3.5 trillion dome can really be hoisted into place. Morgan Stanley's construction manual is about methodically pouring concrete, waiting a full 28 days of curing for each floor slab; Musk's site is full of prefabricated components, hanging curtain walls before the Martian concrete has even set. The seven-year difference is not a schedule gap but a direct clash of two construction philosophies.
Starship is the main steel structure, and the new production line in Louisiana is the prefabrication site. The secret to scaling isn't how stunning the renderings are, but whether the bolt holes align perfectly with the previous tower segment. Launch frequency is the number of crane cycles; each hoist adds another set of stress distribution data for the whole building. Starlink is the external maintenance system; each satellite is a photovoltaic curtain wall, providing shade and generating power — but if the curtain wall can't be hung, no matter how tall the main structure is, it's just an abandoned building hollowed out by termites. AI revenue is the building's brain; a supertall building without intelligent central control is essentially just stacked concrete.
The so-called market linkage is like the "foundation map" passed around on construction sites. Every token target is a sail hanging from the crane, with the wind direction determined by the structural frame. Every K-line of XCRCL is a pile test data point — some only watch the hammer count rise and fall, but I care whether the pile tip resistance really reached the bearing layer. Musk's response is equivalent to raising the pile cap elevation by three meters, requiring all the site's machinery to be redeployed. Market funds are concrete mixer trucks; they never ask if the blueprint is correct, only where the tanker trucks are lining up. Launch order, order prepayments, cash flow ramp curves — all become bolts on the scaffolding — seemingly insignificant, yet holding the entire curtain wall's fate.
Musk says he can reach that number by 2033, meaning all float time on the critical path is compressed to the limit. Anyone who has done master scheduling knows this means any delay in hidden column rebar connections can cause network shifts exceeding seven years. I've seen too many general contractors boast at project meetings, only to get stuck on curtain wall embedded parts. They think the elevation on the blueprint is fact, forgetting that wind loads never look at blueprints.
In this industry, the most dangerous thing isn't insufficient strength, but excessive redundancy. Morgan Stanley left seven years of redundancy; Musk wants to replace redundancy with prestressed steel strands. This isn't risk-taking, but structural engineers squeezing the ultimate potential from materials. Wind tunnel tests for supertall buildings require repeated blowing, just like rockets need to burn fuel repeatedly for launches, but only real wind field data can make a building lighter. Musk's confidence comes from every batch of materials in his hands being stronger than code requirements, while the client's valuation model is still stuck in last century's design load codes.
Buildings never lie; only loads speak. When the tower crane starts to rotate, all debates about height will sink into the foundation — either the steel frame is hard enough, or dust covers the entire site. #SpaceXRevenueBy2033 $BTC had 9 consecutive days of inflows, but overnight they were all withdrawn. The BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million yesterday, which ranks among the largest single-day outflows this year. The price held up fairly well at $77,547, dropping less than 3% in 24 hours, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are still coming in.
But the interesting part is the market structure. The long-short ratio is 1.17, suggesting bulls have the advantage, yet the premium rate is only +0.01%, almost at the zero line. What does this mean? There are a lot of long contracts piled up, but no one is willing to pay a premium to hold positions—they're all waiting for someone else to make the first move. The open interest is 8.2 billion, with no signs of large-scale liquidation panic; the fear-driven selling hasn't appeared yet.
This outflow marks the first reversal after 9 consecutive days of inflows, and the timing is delicate. The previous inflows pushed the price up for a while, and now the funds are suddenly withdrawing. This could either be short-term profit-taking or institutions adjusting positions in anticipation of a bigger pullback. I personally lean toward the latter—after all, a $200 million outflow isn't fatal relative to the overall ETF size, but the signal is more important than the actual amount.
Capital flow is always about the trend, not single-day moves. With today's bearish candle, whether we see net inflows again in the next two days is more valuable for reference than just watching the price to guess the bottom.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Recently, the correlation between $BTC and gold has become increasingly apparent.
In the past few months, the two often moved independently, but since August, with the weakening of the US dollar and the expansion of US long-term Treasury repos, funds have started flowing simultaneously into BTC and gold again. BTC once broke through $80,000, and gold surged to around $4,700.
Even more strikingly, in the last 5 trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted about $7 billion in combined inflows.
I believe this market rally is no longer just a simple rebound in risk appetite.
The market is revisiting a very old logic: money is increasing, but the supply of BTC and gold cannot keep up.
So, in the short term, both sides will of course experience volatility, but as long as the issues with US dollar credit and US debt persist, I think the main theme of BTC and gold is far from over.
$XAU #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 🚨 Bitcoin is standing at the exact level where the last two cycles broke down.
Three cycles. Same setup. 👀
2018: +47% from the June low → breaks the Bull Market Support Band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.
2022: +46% from the January low → breaks the band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.🪫
2026: +40% from the June low → band already broken → now sitting right on the 50W SMA at $81,088.🥏 📌 Key Points of Venezuela Oil Agreement and $TRUMP Trading Plan
[Fact] Trump announced the agreement, the US may gain control over more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela, expected to attract about $100 billion in private investment.
[Impact Analysis]
- Crude Oil: Long-term supply increase expectations are bearish, but short-term production recovery is constrained by infrastructure; current Brent ~89 USD, WTI ~83 USD still dominated by Middle East situation
- Geopolitics: The US strengthens energy control in the Western Hemisphere, potentially weakening Venezuela's relationship with OPEC
- Crypto: Political narrative acts as a sentiment catalyst for $TRUMP
[$TRUMP Trading Plan]
🟢 Stabilize at 2.87 → Go long
🔴 Stop loss at 2.68
⚪ Not stabilized → Wait and see
❌ Volume break below 2.68 → Plan invalid
🎯 Target to reduce position near 3.2
No direction prediction, only execute the plan. Meme coins are highly volatile, watch your position size. 🚨 $MRVL BEAT — BUT AI BETA IS UNDER PRESSURE.
Marvell posted strong numbers: 📈 Revenue +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook raised
Yet $MRVL fell ~8% pre-market, with $SNDK, $MU & $WDC also down.
Meanwhile, $NVDA & $AVGO held steady.
📌 The market may be rotating away from weaker AI plays while direct AI demand remains strong.🪫Maji recently adjusted his positions again, but rather than how many new trades he opened, I'm more concerned about—what exactly is he relying on this time to withstand the pullback? Currently, the account is still clearly biased towards long positions: 🟠 BTC: high-leverage long, entry reference price around $79,800, leverage still at about 40x 🔵 ETH: continued to add about 1,000 coins, overall position has reached around $100 million level, average price near $2,450 🟣 HYPE: on the contrary, actively reduced about 30,000 coins, position significantly contracted 🔴 PUMP: early position has been stopped out, losses realized Meanwhile, the latest on-chain data shows Maji is still one of the largest ETH longs in the market, holding about 41,000 ETH worth nearly $100 million, along with about 75,000 HYPE and 45 BTC. Some ETH positions were previously liquidated, realizing losses of about $1.96 million. What's more troublesome is that the macro environment suddenly changed. After the Jackson Hole meeting, Wash's stance turned clearly hawkish, market expectations for a September rate hike quickly heated up, BTC once fell from above $81,000 to around $77,000, and ETH and other major coins also came under pressure. So now this Maji account is essentially betting on: whether BTC can reclaim $80K, and whether ETH can hold near $2,400. If the market strengthens again, such large positions could quickly recover losses; but if BTC continues to weaken and ETH breaks key support, high leverage+Trump-related accounts issued $GOLD: 15 associated wallets cashed out $312,000
This morning, Trump-related accounts launched the new Solana token $GOLD, with promotional posts later deleted.
15 associated new wallets sold out 224.5 million tokens, exchanging for 3,178 SOL, about $330,000, with a profit of approximately $312,000; the market cap then dropped over 95% within one minute to about $1.8 million.
"Iranian hackers earned $8.2 million" remains only a claim by the involved account. If the account's explanation, address ownership, and fund destinations cannot be mutually verified, the official narrative fails.
This is not ordinary volatility but a break in the authentication chain. Next time a celebrity account suddenly issues a token, will you wait for consistency from the person, official website, and contract, or is a post from the account enough?
Solscan, Solana RPC, Lookonchain; 13:55 UTC+8.🚨 What if the market itself tells us when a crash is coming?
Guys, am I the only one noticing this?
I dug through 7 years of crypto data and found something interesting: when the market gets hit hard, altcoins start moving more and more like Bitcoin. During major crashes, BTC-altcoin correlation can shoot toward 0.9.
#DailyOrbit Under the dual pressure of the US stock AI infrastructure revaluation and the interest rate environment, the narrative of on-chain computing power securitization faces premium restructuring pressure. The current core contradiction lies in whether the SPV split logic can be mapped and transformed from US stocks into actual incremental liquidity on-chain.
On the market front, the abnormal movement of Broadcom's stock price resonates with Nvidia's financial innovation of splitting $500 billion computing power assets through SPV seller guarantees. The risk appetite spillover in US stocks is approaching a critical point in the phase trend of gold and the US dollar. $CHIP, as the pricing mapping of this model on-chain, is currently absorbing the restructuring of SpaceX data center computing power revenue and the market sentiment hedge benchmarked against ENA.
The driving factors ranked by weight are: the liquidity boost to risk assets from the US dollar index decline under the Fed's rate cut expectations; the valuation premium effect of splitting computing power assets by US tech giants; and the valuation catch-up demand of high-beta on-chain targets. The high-level oscillation of gold prices reflects that safe-haven funds have not fully shifted to high-elasticity assets, and pricing is still constrained by the macro liquidity valve.
The bullish scenario requires the US dollar index to break key support and US tech stocks to maintain an upward trend. If risk appetite rises and on-chain liquidity cooperates, the price will directly test the 0.08 resistance zone; if the US stock SPV model premium continues to transmit, breaking through 0.08 will confirm the establishment of computing power securitization premium, with the upper target further opening to 0.1. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a pullback in US AI leaders causing safe-haven funds to flow back into the US dollar.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is the narrowing of market rate cut expectations squeezing the risk-free rate, leading to the squeeze-out of US stock infrastructure premium and the regrouping of gold buying. If the pace of computing power securitization landing is delayed, valuation retracement without funding support will push the price toward the lower liquidity concentration area. The invalidation signal for this scenario is an overall increase in crypto asset trading volume independent of US stock strength.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are the trading activity of US tech stock SPV financial instruments and the degree of range breakdown of the US dollar index.
#Moonwell与Avici接连出险，链上应用风控受审视 #Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal盘前重挫 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开Every eight weeks or so, a dozen people decide whether to leave a number unchanged, and markets around the world spend the following days rearranging themselves around that decision. Nowhere is that rearrangement more uneven than across $BTC, $ETH, and $XAUT — three assets that supposedly all react to the same signal, yet consistently respond in different directions and at different intensities. The Meeting That Wasn't Actually Boring Take this past July. The Federal Reserve did the least dramatETH has been moved home, while BTC is still sitting at the exchange entrance
On the 28th, the market twisted again near $80,000.
During the day, BTC surged past $81,000, but was knocked back by the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in the evening, causing nearly $500 million in liquidations on the leverage side. On the surface, it looks like a macro slap, but the on-chain data tells the other half of the story clearly.
First, look at institutions. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for eight or nine consecutive trading days, with $240 million added on August 27 alone. This rebound window has cumulatively attracted over $2 billion. The money is genuinely coming in, not just pure sentiment.
Next, look at inventory. Santiment data is even more striking: from early June to August 27, the amount of ETH on exchanges dropped by about 1.4 million coins, a decline of 18%. Even during the rise, ETH was still being moved out, indicating it’s not panic selling but shifting chips away from positions "ready to sell anytime." In the same period, BTC exchange balances slightly increased by 0.25%. In short: ETH holders have taken their coins home, while a significant portion of BTC is still left on the counters.
Looking further up, the $81,000 to $86,000 range is a dense cost zone and a short liquidation cluster. Glassnode marked this long ago: this rebound of about 26% from the mid-August low started with the largest short liquidation in recent years on August 19, followed by ETF and spot buying pushing it up. Now it’s stuck at this supply wall, which is not surprising.
Nearby, there are two on-chain movements: Binance saw the largest XRP withdrawals in half a year, about 231 million coins leaving; on the Solana side, Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK to its platform, combined with a recently passed governance vote, clearly shifting capital attention toward the ecosystem side.$CHIP Since many people didn't see my previous post, I'll post it again
I wonder if everyone has noticed that the recent unusual movement in Broadcom's stock price has a certain structural resonance with Nvidia's 500 billion "financial innovation." The so-called "seller guarantee" model—splitting and securitizing computing power assets through SPV—is essentially reconstructing the liquidity premium model of AI infrastructure.
This logic is not without precedent in the crypto world. CHIP is the precise on-chain reflection of this macro narrative. Strangely, the market doesn't seem to have truly started pricing this "mirror." If this were three months ago, a single word from Huang would have meant a 100% increase.
My personal judgment is that this is not just a simple "follow-the-trend speculation" target. The deeper catalyst is that Musk's recent remarks have actually provided indirect endorsement for this path—he publicly hinted that in SpaceX's future profit model, computing power assets generated by newly built data centers will be regarded as one of the core revenue pillars.
Some in the market compare it to ENA. From the perspective of thematic sustainability and market sentiment window, I believe this narrative has room to ferment. The short-term price target is first 0.08; if market liquidity cooperates and risk appetite rises, touching 0.1 is also not impossible. These past few days, I heard two sentences.
One was during the surge:
"Bitcoin surged to 80,000, the bull market is back fast, if you don't get on board, it's too late!"
The other was yesterday:
"Bitcoin fell below 77,000, $200 million long positions liquidated."
I stared at these two sentences for a long time.
Then I realized—
this is nothing new.
The same script has played out countless times in the crypto world.
This surge to 81,200 was due to the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases, continuous inflows into ETFs, and market sentiment reaching extreme greed [citation:2][citation:5][citation:6].
And then?
Then one weekend, liquidity dried up, leveraged longs triggered a cascade of liquidations, wiping out a wave [citation:4].
In the past 24 hours, $452 million was liquidated across the network, with $360 million in long positions liquidated, and over 90,000 people were liquidated [citation:3][citation:6][citation:9].
RSI surged to 91.72, the fear and greed index jumped from 34 to 77 in 7 days, long leverage piled up like a powder keg—then it blew up itself [citation:10].
Some call this a "chain liquidation of longs."
Some call it "market leverage cleansing."
I only know one thing:
When everyone is shouting "the bull market is back fast," the risk is already on the way. Iran opens a temporary shipping route, but the US again refuses to restore the old agreement. This kind of news is the most tormenting for oil prices.
It's neither purely bullish nor purely bearish. With progress on the route, the market will first breathe a sigh of relief; but with sanctions continuing to intensify, the risk premium won't truly disappear. What crude oil hates most is this kind of "seemingly cooling down but actually unresolved" situation.
When I see this kind of news, my first reaction isn't to guess the direction of oil prices, but to think one thing: supply chains fear semi-security the most.
Ships can sail, but every time they have to calculate routes, insurance, sanctions, and diplomatic rhetoric, which already raises costs. Oil prices can pull back in the short term, but the trouble of energy inflation won't automatically end because of a temporary shipping route.
This is also why the macro market can never truly relax about oil prices.
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 This weekend could be the most important stress test for $BTC's current rebound.
Over the past 8 trading days, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $2.8 billion, with total inflows in August exceeding $3 billion, making it the strongest month for capital performance since 2026.
At the same time, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options have settled near $79,682. The previous price-supporting market maker hedges, short covering, and option position impacts are weakening.
Here’s the question:
There will be no ETF subscription funds this weekend, and traditional markets will also stop trading. If BTC can still hold steady around $79,000, it indicates that the market has gradually expanded from institutional weekday buying to crypto-native capital.
If the price clearly falls back to around $77,000 in this low-liquidity environment, it suggests that the recent rise still heavily depends on ETF funds and derivatives structures.
So this weekend, I won’t just look at price changes but will observe three signals: spot trading volume, perpetual contract funding rates, and the speed of buy-side recovery during pullbacks.
After ETF participation ends, who do you think will continue to support BTC?
$BTC5 Key Points of SGP-0002 Passing
Solana has just completed the first-ever binding on-chain governance vote in its history.
67% approval rate, just barely passing.
This is not a consensus landslide; it was a nail-biting, edge-of-the-seat pass.
Here are 5 key points you must know 👇
Key Point 1: Solana’s first-ever, 67% just over the line
On August 28, Solana validators officially approved the SGP-0002 proposal with 67% in favor, 25.16% against, and 7.84% abstaining.
The two-thirds passing threshold, 67%—less than 1 percentage point to spare.
This is not a story of a united and harmonious community. It’s a power struggle at the table, with the winner decided at the last moment.
Key Point 2: 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over six years
The proposal raises the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, moving the 1.5% terminal inflation rate target from 2032 up to 2029.
About 18.9 million fewer SOL are expected to be issued over the next six years.
Token holders face less dilution.
But at what cost?
Key Point 3: Staking yield drops from 5.8% to 2.2%
Currently, Solana’s staking annualized yield is about 5.25%.
According to the post-proposal forecast model: 4.34% in the first year, 3% in the second, and 2.25% in the third.
30 validators are expected to operate at a loss.
Stakers, your rewards are about to be cut in half, then halved again.
Key Point 4: This is not consensus, it’s precise interest group bargaining
The largest voting party, Figment, holding 17.1 million SOL, voted entirely against.
Kraken initially voted against as well but reversed at the last moment under pressure from retail communities, switching about 8.1 million SOL from no to yes.
On one side are institutional staking service providers protecting yields; on the other, token holders resisting dilution.
This is not community unity; it’s a calculated power play among interest groups.
Key Point 5: The market is already pricing it in
SOL’s cumulative gain in August reached 46.9%, ending 10 consecutive months of monthly declines.
Solana spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $1.22 billion.
In the past week alone, ETFs recorded about $1.36 billion in net inflows, the highest single-week inflow since last November.
The market is already pricing in the "supply shock."
But remember this:
Reduced supply does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
Demand is always king.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 🚨 $BTC Jackson Hole leans hawkish, the real test is just beginning
Wash's speech this time is overall hawkish, but one important point: there was no direct signal of a rate hike in September.
So I think the market doesn't need to immediately assume BTC will crash just because it hears "hawkish."
His core message is more like: inflation is not fully resolved yet, rate cuts can't be expected too soon, and we should continue to watch CPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls, and other data.
This certainly puts short-term pressure on BTC, but what really matters is how the market trades this news going forward.
If US Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar strengthens, and BTC breaks key support, then be wary of a further pullback expanding;
Conversely, if yields spike then fall back, and BTC not only doesn't continue to fall but quickly recovers losses, that means the market has started to digest this hawkish signal.
So right now, I won't simply short just because the speech was hawkish.
The news is just a catalyst; the price reaction is the real answer.
BTC is currently oscillating at a high level, inherently in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Going forward, focus on whether support holds, if volume expands, and the correlation between US Treasuries and the dollar.
#btc ETH gets rich through burning, SOL survives by issuing less — can the deflation script be played twice?
On August 5, 2021, Ethereum's London upgrade activated EIP-1559.
Transaction fees started to be burned. ETH began to decrease.
At that time, ETH rose from the July low of $1720 to $3190, a 37% increase in one month, nearly doubling in three months. The market went crazy, and everyone was shouting "ultrasound money."
Four years later, Solana imitated this and launched SGP-0002.
On August 28, Solana validators approved the "double inflation reduction" proposal with 67% support — just 0.33 percentage points above the passing line.
The annual inflation reduction rate increased from 15% to 30%, shortening the time to reach 1.5% terminal inflation from 5.7 years to 2.8 years. About 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued over the next six years.
Once the news broke, SOL's cumulative gain in August surged over 44%, breaking through $106.
But don't get too excited yet.
First, EIP-1559 is "direct burning," while SGP-0002 is "issuing less."
One takes meat out of your bowl, the other cuts a smaller slice next time.
The scale is completely different.
After EIP-1559 was implemented, Ethereum's annual inflation rate dropped from about 4.2% to around 2.6%. Although it didn't truly become deflationary, the psychological impact was huge — the narrative that "ETH is decreasing" supported the entire bull market.
What about SGP-0002? It just changed the issuance speed from "slowly decreasing" to "a bit faster decreasing." The current circulating supply remains unchanged; only future issuance is slightly reduced.
Second, SGP-0003 was rejected, and that was the real blow.
In the same voting batch, there was a proposal called SGP-0003, which aimed to increase the daily SOL burn from 650 to 7,500–9,000.
If passed, this would have been Solana's version of EIP-1559.
The result? Only 53.9% support, below the two-thirds threshold. It was directly rejected.
What do Solana validators want? They want slower inflation but don't want fees to be burned.
Why? Because burning fees means less income for validators.
They want supply to decrease to push up the coin price but don't want to earn less themselves — I could hear this calculation all the way from Beijing.
Third, 2021 was a liquidity-fueled bull market; what about 2026?
EIP-1559 coincided with the Fed's massive liquidity injection; there was so much money with nowhere to go that all assets rose.
Now? Macro uncertainty, regulatory struggles, and tightening liquidity.
The same script, different stage, different audience.
21Shares pointed out long ago: the independent effects of these upgrades cannot be separated from the macro environment.
So, can SGP-0002 replicate the miracle of EIP-1559?
My judgment: don't dream.
Not saying SOL won't rise. ETF funds are flowing in; SOL rose 44% in August, and Bitwise's Solana ETF has surpassed $1 billion. These are solid positives.
But don't treat SGP-0002 as some deflationary savior.
It's just a minor supply-side adjustment. Not the narrative bomb of "burning every transaction" like EIP-1559.
ETH has EIP-1559, SOL has SGP-0002.
But how far the deflation narrative goes doesn't depend on the proposal itself —
It depends on whether the network is actually used and whether money flows in.
Issuing fewer coins doesn't solve the problem of no usage.
Don't mistake "printing less money" for "money becoming more valuable."
That's self-deception.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 AI may have truly changed the original cycle of the memory industry. SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng recently stated that he has not yet seen any obvious signs of a memory downturn, and as AI demand continues to rise, global memory supply shortages may persist until around 2030. More importantly, SK hynix has already begun construction of a new HBM production base in Indiana, USA, with a total investment exceeding $4 billion, and plans to begin mass production of next-generation HBM in the second half of 2029. 1. SK hynix dares to continue expanding production because AI is still "eating up memory" The memory industry used to be typical: when demand rose, manufacturers would expand production; once capacity increased, it was prone to oversupply, causing prices to fall, so there have always been clear cycles. But with the advent of AI, this pace has changed. Training and running large models requires a large number of GPUs, and high-bandwidth memory like HBM is indispensable alongside GPUs. Now, it's not just Nvidia; major AI clients like Microsoft and Google are continuously expanding their computing infrastructure. SK Hynix's judgment is actually quite straightforward: at least for now, the pace of new supply catching up with demand is still not fast enough. 2. The AI market is spreading from "buying GPUs" to the entire supply chain In the past, when it came to AI hardware, Nvidia was the first thing people thought of. But it is increasingly clear that when an AI server truly runs, it requires not only GPUs but also HBM, advanced packaging, power, networking, and data centers. HBM is now available现在 $SOL 大约 $104，24小时跌约 4.7%，日内高点接近 $110，低点约 $102.5。表面看是在回调，但如果把时间拉长一点看，SOL过去一个月仍然上涨接近 46%。所以今天这根阴线，我暂时更愿意理解成强势上涨后的获利盘释放，而不是趋势直接反转。 真正让我继续关注SOL的，其实不是价格。 而是资金正在越来越认真地买它。 8月28日，美国现货SOL ETF仍然净流入约 $15.6M，已经连续 9个交易日净流入；8月27日更出现单日约 $60.9M的巨大流入。也就是说，哪怕SOL今天从$110附近回落，机构资金并没有同步停止。 这就产生了一个很有意思的结构： 价格在回调，但资金还在进。 这种情况如果持续，反而值得观察。 因为SOL这一轮已经不是单纯靠Meme带起来的。 7月份Solana链上交易量达到约 42亿笔，同时美国现货SOL ETF累计净流入已经突破 $1.22B。链上活跃度和传统资金入口正在同时增长。 所以我现在看SOL，会把它拆成三层： 第一层：BTC Beta。 BTC如果重新站回$80K，SOL这种高Beta资产很容易重新获得资金。 第二层：ETH替代逻辑。【Crypto Script】
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
I'm Script Bro. Last night, the core of Walsh's speech was basically one sentence: inflation hasn't been contained yet, so the Fed isn't in a hurry to ease. Of course, in last night's live broadcast, Script Bro also said it's slightly more hawkish than neutral 🦅.
The market reaction was direct: expectations for a September rate hike quickly heated up, the two-year Treasury yield rose, and both gold and BTC fell back. The higher the interest rate expectations, the higher the cost of capital, so liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin naturally take the first hit.
But this doesn't mean a September rate hike is confirmed. Walsh just put this issue back on the table; the real direction will be decided by upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI data.
BTC previously surged from over 60,000 to near 80,000, with many profit-taking positions. It's normal to see a pullback when hawkish news hits. Next, we watch two things: whether Treasury yields continue to rise and whether BTC can reclaim 80,000.
If yields keep climbing and BTC fails to recover, a short-term correction is still possible.
Script Bro's view is simple: last night was bearish, but not enough to reverse the market trend. The real script for September depends on the upcoming employment and inflation data, namely the Nonfarm Payrolls on September 4 and the CPI on September 11, as I've emphasized in my live broadcasts. Ultimately, the most important will be the speeches at 2:00 and 2:30 AM on September 17, which will be key to determining whether the bull market truly arrives.深夜，泡了一杯浓茶，看着荧幕上跳动的K线与数字，偶然刷到X上马斯克的那条回复。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）刚给SpaceX画了一张宏伟的大饼：预测到2040年年营收将达3.5万亿美元，维持“超配”评级与300美元的目标价。可老马显然没这个耐心，轻描淡写地回了一句：2033年左右就能砸开这扇门。 七年。在老牌投行眼皮底下，硬生生把时间线抽离并提前了整整七年。 玩过几年资本市场的老手都懂，投行的Excel模型永远是建立在“稳妥”上的，按部就班地算路易斯安那州的产能扩展，算星舰（Starship）一年能跑多少趟。但马斯克看的是指数级曲线。这七年的时差，藏着三样致命的筹码：星舰商业化的降维打击、星链（Starlink）垄断级别的全球现金流，以及最让人遐想的——AI算力向太空的转移。 想想看，当地面上的科技巨头还在为电力和散热打得头破血流（就像 Google40BAnthropicBet 这种天价豪赌，或者传统矿业在 CryptoMinersGoAI 中仓皇转型），如果SpaceX直接把低轨卫星变成轨道算力节点呢？这不是科幻，这是最残酷的成本逻辑。 再看看我们手里的标的。美股TokBTC前面一度冲上 $81,600 附近，但随后快速回落，目前重新围绕 $79,600–$80,000 反复拉锯。 短线来看，$80,800–$81,800 已经成为新的压力带，想继续向上打开空间，必须先把这一区域真正站稳。 这轮行情还有一个值得注意的变化： 📌 BTC与黄金的联动正在增强 📌 美国政府债务规模已经突破 $40T 📌 财政部扩大长期美债回购，债券市场流动性问题再次受到关注 📌 市场对美元购买力和财政压力的讨论升温，稀缺资产叙事重新受到关注 但现在还不能简单理解成“牛市全面回归”。 前面的上涨除了资金推动，也有明显的空头回补因素。价格冲高之后，短线获利盘开始增加，市场波动自然也会放大。 ⚠️ 更关键的是，杰克逊霍尔会议之后，沃什的表态被市场解读为偏鹰派。 最新市场定价显示，9月进一步加息的预期明显升温，相关概率从此前约 35% 上升至约 60%，BTC也随之重新跌回8万美元附近。 所以接下来重点就看两个位置： 🟢 站稳 $80,800 → 有机会再次挑战 $81,800 上方 🔴 跌破 $79,000 → 高位震荡可能进一步扩大 🟡 $78,200–$78,Wash's hawkish speech directly ignited selling pressure. After the speech, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to nearly 60%. The 2-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index surged. Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; as US Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin increases. Coupled with the previous continuous surge, the market has accumulated a large amount of long leverage, and the news triggered a chain liquidation of longs. Therefore, the short-term market (until the September 16 FOMC meeting) will be highly tied to US inflation PCE data. As long as the inflation data is strong, the shadow of a "September rate hike" will continue to suppress the coin price, causing more spikes and simultaneous long and short liquidations; if inflation falls, easing expectations will return, and BTC will then recover and rebound.
In the short term, the market is expected to continue to be under pressure and decline. For weekend operations, focus on the upper resistance level of 79,000 and the lower support at 75,500 for Bitcoin. For Ethereum, resistance levels are 2,485 and 2,530, with support at 2,350 and 2,240. #Wash emphasizes inflation risk, September rate hike expectations heat up $BTC $ETH Last night, Walsh said a lot, but to put it simply: if inflation doesn't head toward 2%, the Federal Reserve will have to keep working. The U.S. job market hasn't collapsed, and the economy is still holding up. AI investment is even strong. Interest rates of 3.5%–3.75% haven't clearly suppressed the economy, so naturally, the Fed has no reason to rush to pivot dovish. If inflation remains sticky like this, rate hikes will still be on the table.
Walsh has pushed back against the market's previous idea that "rate hikes are almost over." In the short term, this is definitely uncomfortable for U.S. stocks and BTC. When U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise, high-valuation tech stocks and the crypto space will both be pressured. But this time it's different from a recession-driven sell-off; the economy itself isn't bad, and Walsh is very optimistic about AI, so I think it's more about valuation cuts rather than logic cuts.
Going forward, just keep an eye on inflation and employment. If employment stays strong and inflation remains sticky, rate hike expectations won't come down; when inflation truly starts to drop noticeably, U.S. stocks and BTC will actually be the first to rally.Big Brother Maji continues to add to his long positions, but this time he is truly taking real losses.
According to TradingBeats monitoring, Huang Licheng's address currently still holds about 41,000 $ETH, valued at approximately $100 million, remaining one of the largest ETH long holders on-chain. As the market pulled back, he closed part of his ETH long position about 7 hours ago, incurring a loss of about $1.96 million.
Current main wallet holdings:
🔹 41,000 ETH: about $100 million
🔹 75,000 HYPE: about $6.03 million
🔹 45 BTC: about $3.5 million
Previously it was reducing positions to take profits; this time it directly turned into a stop loss.
This also highlights a very realistic issue: even on-chain whales cannot profit every time. When the market pulls back, leveraged longs must bear real losses.
Therefore, whale holdings can serve as observation signals but are by no means guaranteed profitable copy-trading indicators.
#BTC high-level long-short tug-of-war #Gold linkage strengthens #Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Elon Musk responds to Morgan Stanley, $3.5 trillion revenue may be achieved seven years early
Latest data
Morgan Stanley predicts SpaceX could achieve $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. Musk publicly responded that, relying on the accelerated implementation of Starlink, Starship, humanoid robots, and AI businesses, the goal could be reached by 2033. Market prices: $BTC 77660, ETH 2432, SOL $103.5. Overall sentiment is cautious, with grand narratives only slightly boosting risk appetite.
Market consensus
Some funds view this statement as a super long-term positive, with the space + AI sectors' imagination space fully opened; but most traders believe the time span is too long, and any variable in capacity, commercialization, or policy could cause the goal to be hard to realize. It can only be treated as a story catalyst, not substantive performance.
Underlying logic analysis
Essentially, this is a long-term vision bet. Musk is not presenting already landed orders but optimistic assumptions about the growth rate of the entire business line. Such news is unlikely to bring immediate capital inflows, but rather gradually raise the market's tolerance for tech growth assets, indirectly supporting crypto market sentiment without directly driving the market.
Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
The story is exciting enough but should not be used as a trading basis. Still focus only on hard indicators like liquidity, ETF funds, and macro policies. Do not impulsively increase positions because of long-term visions; hold the base positions well and rationally view thematic catalysts.SGP-0002 has passed. Token holders are smiling, stakers are crying.
Six hours before the vote ended, the approval rate was 65.4%, seemingly about to repeat the fate of SIMD-0228 in March 2025—back then, a 61.4% approval rate fell just short of the two-thirds threshold and failed.
Then Kraken made a move.
Its largest validator node, holding nearly 9 million SOL, was 100% against on Friday morning. At 10:37, it suddenly switched to 90.34% in favor. Galaxy also changed from 92% abstain to 58% in favor. In the last hour, over 90 validators rushed to vote.
176 million SOL voted in favor, 66.19 million against, 67% to 33%, just passing the line.
This was the first binding on-chain governance vote in Solana's history, and it passed by a narrow margin.
What was the cost?
Issuance of 18.9 million fewer SOL over the next six years—valued at about $2 billion at current prices. The time to reach 1.5% terminal inflation shortens from 5.7 years to 2.8 years.
SOL in holders’ hands becomes scarcer. In August, SOL rose 44%, hitting $106. The US spot Solana ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.22 billion. Charles Schwab announced plans to add SOL to its trading platform.
On the surface, token holders win all.
But what about stakers?
The proposal author’s own forecast—staking yield drops from the current 5.8% to 2.2% by the third year. 21Shares’ model is more detailed: 4.34% in year one, 3% in year two, 2.25% in year three.
Out of 738 validators, 2 become unprofitable in year one, 13 in year two, 30 in year three.
The proposal author’s original words: “This income cut may force many staking operations to shut down.”
Solana’s current staking rate is 67.93%, twice that of Ethereum. Why? Because staking yields are high. Now yields are being cut by more than half.
A soul-searching question: If staking yields drop to 2.2%, will you still stake SOL?
Or will you withdraw SOL and put it into DeFi mining? Or just sell it?
SGP-0002 is a choice:
Do you want scarcer SOL, or higher staking yields?
$BTC $SOL $ETH #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 🔥$DOGE Is it now in a “bottom repair” phase or “range consolidation”? Let's talk about the logic of the “sentiment indicator”
$DOGE currently feels like “a story without performance”: the August rebound relied on regulatory expectations + X payment speculation + DOGE-1 satellite narrative + whale bottom-fishing, but the fundamentals remain the same old three — no total supply cap, about 5 billion new coins annually, driven by community and Musk sentiment.
Bullish reasons: price has recovered from the July low area, on-chain activity and whale addresses are returning, ETF inflows are small but no longer zero, and improved macro risk appetite will first lift beta assets.
Bearish reasons: obvious resistance at 0.09–0.10, August historically weak seasonally, institutional ETF size too small, X Money currently prioritizes fiat and has no clear integration with DOGE, Musk-related catalysts often “sound promising in advance but disappoint on delivery.”
Personally, I treat it as a “sentiment indicator” not a “value asset”: if it doesn’t break 0.067–0.069, there’s still a rebound narrative; if it can’t hold above 0.10, don’t talk about a main uptrend; if you want to invest, do so with a small position and set stop-losses, don’t go all-in on spot betting on Musk.
Do you think DOGE is in a bottom repair phase this round, or will it continue to oscillate between 0.08–0.10? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$DOGE 46% Rise in August, $1.2 Billion Inflow into ETF in Five Days: SGP-0002 is Igniting Solana's "Supply Shock" Narrative
In August, SOL started near $73 and once broke through $110, rising 46.9% in a single month. This ended a record of 10 consecutive months of decline.
The strongest monthly performance since March 2024.
The US spot Solana ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.22 billion. On August 24 alone, $33.5 million flowed in, the largest single-day inflow in 2026.
Bitwise's BSOL—asset management scale surpassed $1 billion, becoming the first Solana ETF to reach this milestone. This one alone consumed 80% of the entire Solana ETF market's funds.
Institutions are not just testing the waters; they are sweeping up.
But this is only half the story.
The other half is at the code level—SGP-0002.
On August 28, Solana validators passed this proposal with 67% support, increasing the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%.
Over the next six years, SOL issuance will decrease by about 18.9 million tokens, valued at approximately $1.4 to $1.5 billion. The time to reach a 1.5% terminal inflation rate is moved forward from 2032 to 2029.
On one side, supply is tightening; on the other, institutions are buying frantically.
A supply-demand scissors gap is forming.
But don't get too excited yet—
Reduced supply does not necessarily mean the price will rise. On the day the proposal passed, SOL was around $105 and actually dropped 1.2%. The market always prices in advance.
More importantly: validator staking rewards will decrease.
21Shares' model shows nominal staking yields dropping from about 5.25% to 4.34% in the first year, 3% in the second year, and 2.25% in the third year. Among 738 validators, 2 will turn unprofitable in the first year, and 30 in the third year.
If validators earn less, will they still be willing to stake? Who will guarantee network security?
Solana company (HSDT) voted against—reasoning that predictable staking rewards are needed. They earned $2.51 million from staking; suddenly cutting rewards would upset anyone.
SGP-0002 puts the "supply reduction" narrative on the table. ETF money is still flowing in. But whether the narrative holds depends on whether the Solana ecosystem can use transaction fees to compensate validators' losses.
If it can, the scarcity narrative of SOL is complete.
If not, this is just another "good news fully priced in" story.
$BTC $SOL $ETH #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 A sharp drop is the entry ticket!
Data is king!
It's still not too late to position long on ETH now!
78 $ETH long positions
Opening average price at 2357
Currently floating profit of 6410U
This wave is not a guess
Capital has long shown the answer
—
ETH spot ETF net inflow was $102.1 million yesterday
Farside details show
10 consecutive trading days of net inflow from August 17 to 28
Accumulated about $1.508 billion
Screenshot title says 12 consecutive days
But daily data confirms 10 consecutive trading days of positive inflow
This figure is more precise according to Farside data
Last night's decline was mainly due to Wash's hawkish stance
The market is re-pricing the risk of a September rate hike
US tech stocks retreated
Crypto followed, releasing leverage
More like a macro sentiment sell-off
Not a sudden problem with ETH's fundamentals
—
ETH contract open interest is $32.3 billion
24-hour liquidations about $94.62 million
Futures trading volume $44.3 billion
Far higher than spot trading volume of $2.6 billion
Indicates leverage positions still dominate volatility
2400 to 2410 is the first line of defense
Next support near 2350
As long as 2400 holds
Rebound target first at 2480
After breaking through, then test 2520 to 2560
Now is suitable for scaling in on pullbacks
Not suitable to chase highs on rebounds
—
BTC contract open interest is $54.17 billion
24-hour liquidations about $152 million
More importantly
Yesterday BTC spot ETF net outflow was $201.9 million
This is also a key reason why BTC is weaker than ETH
Watch if 77000 can hold first
If broken, look at 75500 to 76000
Above, 80000 is the first resistance
Then around 81500
BTC must retake 80000
Otherwise ETH's rebound won't be smooth
—
$OKB is not completely broken
More a retracement after a large prior gain
Around 108 is short-term support
Below, focus on 105
Above, 114.5 is first resistance
Only after breaking through is there a chance to challenge 120 again
OKB is naturally volatile
This level is good for small position testing
Don't go all in on one candle
—
$SNDK, though volatile
Fundamentals remain solid
Company Q4 revenue $8.965 billion
Sequential growth 51%
Data center revenue sequential growth 103%
Also plans to invest over $31 billion with Kioxia in Japan through 2032
Short-term support at 1437 and 1400
Resistance at 1516 and 1550
Long-term logic intact
But gains are already large
Waiting for pullbacks is more comfortable than chasing hard above 1500
—
This drop is due to hawkish news
BTC ETF outflows
Plus concentrated high-leverage liquidations
While ETH ETF funds continue to flow in
This is currently the strongest data
If 2400 holds
I continue to expect ETH to rebound to 2520
If strong, then test 2560
But 100x leverage is only for show
Not a template to follow
Remember to raise protection when profits appear
If 2350 really breaks, don't fight the market
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Once Waller spoke, the market began repricing interest rates.
What really unsettled the market tonight was that Waller loosened several key assumptions the market had heavily relied on recently.
Waller first gave a very strong economic assessment: the U.S. economy remains resilient, and the labor market is near full employment.
This means the Federal Reserve currently has little reason to tolerate higher inflation for the sake of employment.
Immediately after, he shifted the policy focus back to price stability.
July's PCE year-over-year is still as high as 3.7%, with core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year. Waller clearly stated that current data is insufficient to prove that underlying inflation has improved enough.
The most critical sentence was: if inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Fed still has work to do.
The market understood.
The probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose, 2-year Treasury yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets began repricing accordingly.
So the scene tonight was very consistent: gold down, $BTC down, U.S. stocks down.
These assets seem completely different but share a common pricing chain behind them.
Recently, the market had bet on: inflation falling → rate hikes ending → interest rates declining → liquidity improving → high-valuation assets expanding again.
What Waller did tonight was push this chain back one step.
Moreover, he sent a longer-term signal.
Waller explicitly said the market should not always look to the Fed for the next trade, expressed a desire to reduce forward guidance, and leave unconventional monetary policy more for true crisis times.
This essentially tells the market: the habit of expecting the Fed to step in whenever asset prices fall needs to be recalibrated.
So tonight's decline, on the surface, looks like a hawkish speech.
Deeper down, the market is recalculating three things: whether there will still be a hike in September, how long rates will stay high, and how much the Fed Put is worth going forward.
Currently, the most important indicator to watch remains U.S. Treasuries.
If only the 2-year continues to reflect rate hike expectations while the 10-year holds steady, this is closer to a repricing of short-term policy rates.
If both the 2-year and 10-year rise rapidly and the dollar continues to strengthen, it becomes more complicated.
That would mean the market is simultaneously trading a more hawkish short end plus a rising long-term term premium.
This is the combination that will truly continue to suppress the Nasdaq, gold, and BTC.
So what Waller changed tonight is not just a one-day move.
He reminded the market again: as long as inflation hasn't truly returned to 2%, easing won't come so easily. This quote was seen by a friend, and he asked me, "Can you calculate the price drop from the historical high after the golden pit appears in each cycle?"
As shown in the picture, the golden pits that have been successfully confirmed to mark the BTC cycle bottoms are in 2018 and 2022, four years apart, and the current 2026 golden pit is also exactly four years apart...
But if we calculate the price drop from the ATH after the first weekly candle emerges from the golden pit, we find:
In the first two golden pits, even though there was a large weekly-level rebound, the drop from the relative high still exceeded 50%, specifically 74% in April 2019 and 69% in January 2023...
Here's the interesting part: although the golden pits appear every four years, the first two golden pits actually emerged at the beginning of the following year, which corresponds to early 2027 now...
And if we look at the "post-pit drop" values, this current golden pit seems somewhat out of place because the drop from the ATH is only about 37~39%...
It seems that from both the time and price drop perspectives, this golden pit appeared half a year early, which indeed raises some doubts...
However, I think this is easy to explain since the market now is not like before; the bear market becoming shorter and shallower is completely a sign of an asset gradually maturing;
Unless this is not a golden pit...
I won’t think too much about what comes next, thinking too much can easily make you get off halfway...
Once the bull market truly arrives, you should decisively throw your brain away...
Unless BTC still can’t break through 83k in 2 weeks, only then will I consider the pessimistic side of this chart...
Until then, patiently wait for a complete technical breakthrough!When trading stocks, I love watching the Dragon and Tiger List, following the hot money rush, but often end up stuck at the peak feeling the cold wind.
In the crypto world, it's even more direct: when a whale address moves, retail investors panic and follow, but actually, the whales are selling off.
I've learned my lesson and brought the stock market strategy of "building positions gradually on the left side" over here—only reaching out after a deep drop.
During that $BTC halving, I bought a little every 10% drop according to plan, and in the end, my average cost was quite low.
Don't believe in any "eternal bull market"; the Growth Enterprise Market was hyped like that in 2015, but later it crashed so hard even your own mother wouldn't recognize it.
Now I only watch two signals: the fear index and on-chain net inflow, which is used similarly to northbound funds in the stock market.
When $ETH surged, I actually reduced my position because the old stock market saying goes, "Huge volume, huge price."
I firmly avoid trading at night; I set stop-loss orders and go to sleep—this habit came from getting burned by night futures trading.
When the community shouts "bottom fishing," I wait; when they shout "crash," I watch—often doing the opposite works out.
Once I make money, I immediately take out half; pocketing profits is the real gain, account numbers are just virtual.
If I lose, I don't add positions; I wait for stabilization before moving again—don't follow that toxic advice of "buying more as it falls."
No matter how tempting $SOL gets, I only invest 10% according to discipline, never getting carried away.
Finally, just one sentence: The market punishes the disobedient. Control your hands, survive, and that's better than anything else.I still do not rule out the ability of on-chain indicators to identify the bottom of Bitcoin's price.
Here is a simple explanation.
On-chain indicators reflect investor behavior, and investor behavior is closely related to market cycles, periods of frenzy, and periods of fear.
There is one interesting thing I have been closely watching. I want to make it clear that this is not financial advice. This is just my personal opinion after analyzing a large amount of data.
I will use the MVRV Z-Score to better explain it.
2017 to 2018 cycle
1. In 2017, this indicator formed three major peaks before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin dropped, and the indicator formed a bottom between approximately 0.25 and 1.16.
3. At that time, many did not expect another sharp drop. Then, in November 2018, Bitcoin plunged sharply to $3,180.
Latest bull market cycle
1. Between 2024 and 2025, the MVRV Z-Score also formed three peaks, although given the market has become more complex, these peaks were less frenzied.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin dropped, and the indicator formed a bottom in the same region as in 2018.
3. Recently, the indicator moved upward, and Bitcoin followed. However, unlike in 2018, the MVRV Z-Score has not yet entered the negative region historically marking Bitcoin’s major price bottoms.
I have been fascinated by on-chain indicators for years, which is why we built an indicator library at Alphractal.
But the ongoing mental exercise I keep doing is this:
How likely is it that this indicator still needs to move further down, with Bitcoin’s price moving accordingly?
I will make a dedicated video showing why, from a purely on-chain perspective, the price bottom may not have arrived yet. To meet the conditions I am watching, Bitcoin will likely need to drop to at least $53,000 or lower.
I am questioning the data, not the current bullish narrative.
This is exactly why I brought up 2018. At that time, almost no one expected another sharp drop.
The fact is, I do not want the market to drop further. When that happens, retail investors disappear, and the environment becomes worse for everyone.
But every day I look at these indicators, and they seem to be saying: the bottom may not have arrived yet.
I keep asking myself whether this cycle will ultimately behave like previous cycles.
There is no doubt this is complicated. However, sometimes the best decision is simply to observe, analyze carefully, and board this train with greater confidence along the way.
Because our beloved Bitcoin is always full of traps 😀At the press conference in July, the framework Wash provided was basically a correct piece of empty talk—tighten when employment meets the target and inflation rises, ease when it falls.
This time he inserted a hard indicator: we must "be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward 2% at a sufficiently fast pace," otherwise "we still have work to do."
The word "work" refers to continuing to raise interest rates. But what exactly "sufficiently fast" means, he deliberately did not quantify. This leaves a loophole and plants a mine—the market can only guess.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 CORE's Quantum-Resistant Cutting-Edge Advantages (Current Status + Plans)
Current Status: Currently, the CORE mainnet, like BTC and ETH, uses ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Once quantum computers mature, there is a risk of "collecting public keys now and decrypting to steal coins in the future."
After the official release in April 2026, a quantum defense roadmap will be launched, a cryptography team will be formed, and a hybrid dual-signature scheme will be adopted (NIST-standard ML-DSA post-quantum signature + original ECDSA signature in parallel), with each transaction carrying two sets of signatures.
✅ Planned Technical Cutting-Edge Advantages
1. Dual-signature hybrid architecture for smooth upgrades without forcing users to migrate private keys
- When quantum computers break traditional ECDSA, the post-quantum signature ensures asset security;
- If the new post-quantum algorithm is found vulnerable, the original ECDSA signature serves as a fallback;
- A rare progressive upgrade approach in EVM public chains, avoiding a one-time hard fork that forces all users to change wallet keys, making it friendlier for BTC stakers, DApps, and wallets.
2. Specifically designed for BTCFi scenarios to protect native BTC staked assets
CORE's biggest feature is that users stake BTC on the Bitcoin chain with CLTV time-locks, and BTC never leaves the Bitcoin wallet.
Future quantum-resistant upgrades will also consider this BTC non-custodial staking system, protecting both CORE chain assets and the quantum security of staked BTC, a scenario demand absent in ordinary EVM public chains.
3. Targeting institutional and large capital long-term security narratives
BTCFi will attract large BTC-LST, family offices, and asset management entries. Quantum security is a key long-term evaluation metric for institutions. Early deployment of post-quantum cryptography prepares technical groundwork for future institutional capital inflows.
4. Horizontal comparison with similar BTCFi projects
Projects like Stacks and Babylon remain at the conceptual roadmap stage without mainnet quantum resistance deployment; the entire BTCFi sector is still in R&D. CORE is among the earlier projects to publicly disclose a complete solution.Last night's market was really frustrating 😒.
Before Wash's speech, BTC hovered above 78K all day, looking relatively stable, and everyone was waiting for the 10 PM speech to land. But once he started speaking, inflation was described as "far above target," 2% is a "hard target," and the financial environment is not considered tight—after these three statements, BTC dropped 0.89% in 15 minutes to 78,620, ETH fell to 2,477, and gold plunged $50. Those who chased long positions probably got stunned.
The worst part isn't the big drop, but the way it dropped—it fell, but not thoroughly. BTC didn't break 77K, ETH didn't reach 2400; if you want to bottom-fish, you're afraid of catching a falling knife, if you want to short, you're afraid of a rebound after the speech is fully digested. You place an order and go to sleep, but none get filled.
The US stock market wasn't much better; Nasdaq futures fell 0.29%, MSTR rose 6%, but mining stocks were all down, showing strong sector divergence.
This kind of market is the easiest to lose money in. Wash is the same as always—telling you inflation is high, he's paying attention, but whether to raise rates or not, you guess. The market was previously worried he wouldn't provide a framework; this time at least he said 2% is a hard target, so that's some explanation. But the probability of a September rate hike has already passed 40%, and if CPI exceeds expectations again, that will be really tough.
Anyway, I stayed up last night for nothing, didn't catch anything. $BTC $ETH $SPCX #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 This is the first time since Wash took office that he has formally characterized the policy stance, and the conclusion is five words: not restrictive.
He presented a series of arguments — credit spreads are at the low end of the historical range, corporate bond and leveraged loan issuance is strong, banks have relatively loose lending standards for industry and commerce, and loan growth is not slow.
In plain language, this means:
At the current interest rate level, there is basically no cooling effect on the economy. This effectively shuts down any early thoughts of "should we ease a bit," instead shifting all the pressure to "should we tighten a bit more."
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage is clearly strengthening
To be honest, the performance at the $80,000 level is somewhat weaker than I expected.
Just the day before yesterday, it broke above the $80,000 mark, but today it quickly fell back to around $77,000, with a 24-hour drop of about 3%.
Why did this kind of movement occur?
On-chain data has already provided a relatively clear answer: the $80,000–$82,000 range is suppressing nearly 8% of the circulating supply, much of which consists of previously trapped funds waiting to be freed.
After two consecutive attempts to break through $81,500 were clearly pushed back, this performance is actually not surprising.
But what really made me start to be cautious is the movement of gold.
After Powell’s speech, gold once plunged about $120 and fell below $4,500, while BTC almost simultaneously experienced a significant drop.
According to Grayscale data, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen above 50%, while at the same time, the correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to about 33%.
In the past, I always thought that “digital gold” was more of a market narrative.
But with the US debt exceeding $40 trillion, the market seems to be re-evaluating fiat credit and asset value.
Now, the linkage between BTC and gold is becoming increasingly obvious—they seem to be tied to the same rope.
In the short term, the key area to watch next is the $76,500–$77,000 range.
As1. How much did it sell? Was it profitable? Unitree's humanoid robot sales surged from 5 units to over 5,200 units in two years, accounting for 30% of the global market share. It is one of the few profitable complete machine manufacturers in the industry, with a net profit of 278 million yuan by 2025 and a gross margin as high as 60% (compared to peers generally around 40%). On August 19, it was just listed on the STAR Market, and its stock price was already four times its IPO price. 2. What makes it strong? UBS splits its robots into three parts: brain (AI decision-making), cerebellum (motion control), and body (hardware body). Unitree's specialty lies in the latter two: · Hardware self-development: core components (motor, actuators) are made in-house, not outsourced, saving a lot of costs. The motor has extremely high torque, capable of running, jumping, and backflipping. Motion control expert: robots run fast (over 5 meters/second), perform group dances on the Spring Festival Gala, win gold medals at sports meets, and their practical skills can withstand the test. Cost moat: Although products drop prices year after year, self-developed + large-scale procurement reduce costs faster, so the more prices are cut, the higher the gross margin, and competitors simply can't compete. 3. Where are the weaknesses? Currently, 76% of humanoid robots are sold to research and education institutions, while only 3% actually work in factories. The reason is that robots' AI generalization (brains) are still insufficient, unable to handle complex tasks flexibly like humans. This is not Unitree's problem but an industry-wide bottleneck. 4. What to do next? · Raised 6 billion yuan in the IPO, with 39% (about 2 billion) dedicated to embodied AI R&D. · Just reached a strategic partnership with DeepSeek (capital + technology binding, locked in 3Short answer: *Yes, BTC is still the "steering wheel"*. But the way it leads has changed this time
*1. Why does BTC move first, and altcoins follow?*
The historical iron law remains unchanged:
*$BTC rises first → profits are taken → rotation to $ETH → then to $SOL → and finally to small coins*
Because:
1. *ETFs only buy BTC and ETH* #SchwabExpandsCrypto When institutions enter, their first stop is BTC
2. *#BTCGoldCorrelation* BTC is now tied to gold. When macro conditions improve or worsen, BTC reacts first
3. *Largest market cap, best liquidity* Large funds can only enter BTC first, then look for elasticity further down
So you're right: *If BTC has momentum = altcoins have a chance. If BTC is sideways/down = altcoins are a meat grinder*
*2. Will BTC lead the next wave? Look at 3 conditions*
Condition Current status Interpretation
**1. Macro liquidity** #WalshInflationRisk DXY 103.9↑ US Treasury 4.41%↑ Liquidity is tightening. Bearish for BTC
**2. ETF bullets** August daily average 400 million → September daily average 120 million Institutions are waiting for a signal, no aggressive buying
**3. Technicals** $76,200 stuck at MA30 If it breaks below $76K, watch $74.5K; if it holds above $79K, watch $81K During those years of stock trading, I went through two full cycles of bull and bear markets and learned one principle: sell during the frenzy, buy during despair.
In the crypto space, the $BTC cycle has compressed from four years to one year, but the underlying greed and fear have never changed.
At the stock market peak, even the market vendors were recommending stocks; at the crypto peak, Twitter is full of "never-ending highs."
The bottom looks similar too: in the stock market, no one checks their accounts; in crypto groups, only advertising bots remain.
I do the opposite based on this: when others curse, I place buy orders; when others show off their profits, I place sell orders.
Don’t aim to perfectly time the top or bottom; surviving three market tops in stocks or even one in crypto counts as a win.
I missed out on 30% gains selling $ETH too early, but I avoided a subsequent 40% crash, so it was worth it.
Now I apply the stock market's "right-side confirmation": don’t jump the gun, wait for the signal before acting.
Don’t rush to recover losses; the more you gamble in stocks, the more you lose, and it’s even worse in crypto.
When making money, remember how you lost before to keep your hands in check.
Set an alarm daily, check prices only twice, and avoid constantly refreshing the market.
No matter how hot $SOL gets, I stick to my plan and never add positions impulsively.
One last thing: use spare money, stick to discipline, the market won’t close, but your principal can.Every time I go long, it crashes; one sentence from Wash sent me off.
---
Folks, just stopped out of my ETH long. Entered at 2495, stopped out at 2450, -37.74%.
Last night Wash spoke at Jackson Hole—inflation risks remain, and the probability of a September rate hike is fully priced in. As soon as he spoke, BTC dropped from 81,000 to 80,000, and ETH directly fell below 2450. My long position was taken out by that move.
What did Wash say?
"The process of inflation decline has stalled."
"Core PCE at 3.7% is still far from the 2% target."
"The committee is prepared to take further action in September."
The market had been hoping that since PCE didn’t exceed expectations, there wouldn’t be a hike. Wash’s words completely reversed that expectation—he wasn’t discussing a hike, he was signaling one.
The interest rate futures market reacted directly, with the probability of a September hike surging to 64%. Before the bearish news landed, bulls found it hard to mount a decent counterattack.
Where did this trade go wrong?
It was wrong to bet on direction too early. Knowing Wash’s speech was the biggest variable, I still entered early to go long. With rate hike expectations heating up, risk assets are under pressure—this script isn’t new today.
In the future, stay flat before major events and wait for direction. Don’t gamble on this one; wait for the outcome before following.
Stay flat, wait for the dust to settle before looking for opportunities. 🖐️
$ETH
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 [New] Jackson Hole Macro Review
Last night, the Jackson Hole speech by Walsh landed, overall hawkish, shattering the market's previous easing fantasies.
Core: The 2% inflation target remains unchanged, summer inflation improvement does not mean an underlying trend improvement, possibility of further rate hikes remains; forward guidance is weakened, future policy will fully depend on inflation and employment data, will not follow market expectations, September rate hike expectations have risen sharply.
Market transmission chain: rising rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → non-yielding assets and risk assets collectively pressured, high Beta assets experience larger pullbacks, many leveraged long positions are liquidated.
Going forward, inflation and non-farm payroll data will carry greater weight each month, market spikes and back-and-forth stop-loss sweeps will become the norm.
Like Camel Xiangzi who believed until death that he just wasn’t working hard enough.
Trading is similar; losses are not entirely due to insufficient review or effort. Macro shifts can easily break personal forecasts. Don’t blame all market outcomes solely on yourself; distinguish between external environment and personal issues. Trading does not reward smart people, only those who can endure, tolerate, and adapt. Profit is just the result; the cost is often hidden.
Key price levels reference for various assets
📈Spot Gold XAUUSD
Sharp plunge after the speech, speculative longs fled at high levels, central bank buying provides underlying support, the major trend has not directly reversed, entering a phase of retesting support.
Resistance: 4600-4640, 4670-4700
Support: 4450-4460 (short-term defense), 4500-4520 major watershed
📈BTC Bitcoin
Risk appetite cools, crowded leveraged longs reduce positions; spot ETF buying provides bottom buffer, high Beta coins face increased pullback pressure.
Resistance: 8000-8130, 8280-8300
Support: 7600-7700 short-term defense, 7300-7450 medium support, 6900-7100 major trend watershed
📈ETH Ethereum
More elastic than BTC, more sensitive to liquidity expectation disturbances.
Resistance: 2520-2560, 2750-2800
Support: 2360-2400 short-term defense, 2220-2260 medium support, 2050-2100 major watershed
📈WTI Crude Oil
Dollar strength suppresses oil prices, but Middle East geopolitical supply risks remain, decline is less than precious metals and crypto, shifting to range-bound oscillation.
Resistance: 84.4-85.3, 86.8-87.5
Support: 81.8-82.4 short-term defense, 80.5-81.0 medium support, 79.0-79.5 major trend lifeline
📈Micron Technology MU
Long-term logic for HBM industry unchanged, but rising rates suppress growth stock valuations, intensifying high-level consolidation.
Resistance: 927-933, 980-985
Support: 900 short-term defense, 860-870 medium support, 820-830 trend watershed
Trading Insights
Macro expectations have been rewritten, no longer supported by policy rhetoric.
Do not stubbornly resist the trend, do not heavily bet against the trend. Do not get swept up by the market’s heated emotions, no need to fear missing out. Wait for price to truly test support and resistance, and act only after the market gives high-probability confirmation signals.
A faint glow can ignite a prairie fire. The market never lacks opportunities; survival is the first priority. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Here's a rewritten version + latest data + changed phrasing 👇
---
*$BTC players now must keep a close eye on gold and the dollar*
After Walsh's hawkish stance at Jackson Hole, the entire market is playing a *"liquidity drain game"*
*Latest linkage as of 9.1 afternoon:*
1. *Dollar Index DXY ↑ 103.1 → 103.9*
Probability of rate cuts dropped from 91% to 78%. Safe-haven funds flow back into the dollar
2. *US 10-year Treasury yield ↑ 4.25% → 4.41%*
Interest rates aren't coming down; bonds are more interesting than crypto
3. *$BTC ↓ $80,900 → $76,200*
Risk assets are taking the lead in losses
4. *Gold ↓ $2525 → $2472*
Real interest rates rise, gold can't hold up
5. *Silver ↓ $29.6 → $28.1*
Double hit for precious metals and industrial commodities
This is classic *liquidity tightening*. Less liquidity means everything falls
*#WalshInflationRisk Inflation risk is back*
The core logic is simple: *"No rush to cut rates"*
Walsh's message: Inflation isn't dead yet; September moves depend on data
Meanwhile, #SchwabExpandsCrypto Charles Schwab announces expansion of crypto business, which should be positive
But against the macro backdrop, the news is completely overshadowedSchwab's planned addition of SOL, AVAX and LINK matters less as a token endorsement than as a change in how mainstream investors may access crypto. After launching its phased SchwabCrypto rollout in May 2026 with BTC and ETH, the broker is moving beyond the two largest established assets into smart-contract networks and oracle infrastructure.
My read: the real signal will be client behavior. If demand persists after access becomes routine, other brokers and asset managers may face pressure to broaden their own menus. Until then, this is evidence of expanding distribution, not proof of durable allocation. Not advice, just analysis.
#SchwabExpandsCrypto