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Printing money to buy itself? That's ruthless!! I'm on the opposite side, hitting my thigh! 😭
$HYPE rose another 6.6% today to touch 88, right next to ZEC which is trending first, and it hasn't fallen behind.
The buyback engine is really running. After AQAv2 went live, 90% of the protocol's USDC reserves' earnings go directly into the Assistance Fund to buy + burn HYPE; plus 99% of trading fees also follow this path, cumulatively burning $1.3 billion and 46.89 million tokens. Hyperliquid and Pump.fun have covered 90% of the buybacks for the entire year of 2026, so this buying pressure doesn't rely on trading volume.
Good news is lining up. Hashdex's NCIQ ETF included HYPE (3.36% weighting), Hyperliquid Strategies expanded its equity financing quota from 1 billion to 2.5 billion, and a giant whale swept $11.8 million in 24 hours. US market entry is also in talks, leveraging Kraken's parent company Payward to run Bitnomial's CFTC-compliant perpetual contracts.
But September 6 is a hurdle. 9.92 million HYPE tokens (about $800 million, 2.37% of circulation) unlock after that day, and HyperLabs just unstaked 433,000 tokens also locked on the same day. Historically, HYPE's reaction to unlocks has been mild, but this time the volume is large enough.
RSI at 82.8 is overbought, resistance at 86.55; breaking it targets 90-95, failing to hold 80 means a pullback. Expect a surge before unlock, and the unlock day will be decisive based on the claim rate.What exactly can the new CORE v1.0.26 node version bring?
The hard fork has completed a full network upgrade, and the v1.0.26 node version is now online. Many only know about the burning of 150 million tokens but are unaware of all the changes brought by the new node version.
✅1. Fix of a critical reward minting vulnerability (the core issue)
The old node version had a logic flaw allowing malicious validator nodes to obtain excessive block rewards, causing token oversupply.
The new version completely blocks this vulnerability code, preventing excessive minting at the node's core level.
This is not a fix for wallet theft vulnerabilities but a fix for the protocol's inflation reward logic to prevent unlimited minting of CORE that would dilute all holders' assets.
✅2. Permanent burning of 150 million excess tokens, rewriting token supply
Under the new node rules, the already generated 150 million excess CORE tokens are permanently burned and removed from the total token supply.
- There will be no clawback of tokens already held by malicious nodes, and no on-chain transactions will be rolled back.
- Ordinary users’ staking, transfers, and DApp interaction histories are fully preserved; user assets remain unchanged.
From the node rule perspective, this eliminates the token dilution crisis caused by this incident.
✅3. Staking & BTC hash dual staking functions will restart soon
The official announcement states staking rewards will resume within 48 hours, effective only after all nodes upgrade to v1.0.26.
- CORE staking rewards will be produced again
- The BTC hash power staking module will resume operation, restoring BTC hash power participation in network security.
Nodes that do not upgrade will be disconnected from the mainnet and unable to produce blocks or earn rewards.
✅4. A lesson for public chain governance, constraining validator nodes
The new node version enhances validation of validator node behavior; abnormal excessive reward transactions will be directly intercepted by the protocol.
This constrains malicious nodes: attempts to exploit reward logic loopholes for profit will be blocked at the node level, no longer waiting for a hard fork fix after the fact.
⚠️ What the new node version cannot do (don’t expect these)
1. ❌ It will not directly raise the coin price. The node only fixes protocol code and does not create buy pressure out of thin air; market trends are still determined by capital, chip distribution, and macro factors.
2. ❌ It cannot erase the trust damage caused by this bug incident. The vulnerability is fixed, but developers’ and institutions’ trust in the project requires long-term operation and a complete incident report to gradually restore.
3. ❌ It cannot prevent users from unstaking and selling. After the fix, users can still freely unstake and sell on exchanges; selling pressure risk objectively remains.
4. ❌ It does not guarantee no new bugs will appear in the future. It only fixes this vulnerability; complex public chain code still carries unknown risks ahead.
📌 What this means for ordinary participants
1. Staking users: wait for all nodes to fully sync, staking rewards to resume, and continue mining profits; be sure your staking frontend connects to the new mainnet version.
2. Traders: node fix only “defuses a bomb,” it does not mean a bull market has started. The real test is when exchanges open deposits and withdrawals at 5 PM, revealing true chip competition.
3. Ecosystem developers: with stable underlying reward logic, DApps and contracts can continue safe deployment without worrying about black swan events of token oversupply.BTC is back above 80,000.
The market has actually been quite interesting these past couple of days. It was hovering around 77,000 earlier, then as soon as Waller spoke, risk assets immediately reacted.
But right now, I'm more interested in today's non-farm payrolls.
If the employment data shows a clear weakening, the market might continue to price in rate cuts or no hikes, which would definitely be a boost for BTC.
However, if the data is strong, then it's hard to say, especially since BTC is already near 80,000, which isn't a low level.
There's another detail I find worth watching:
BTC ETFs saw inflows again yesterday, but ETH ETFs' continuous net inflows have stopped.
So it doesn't look like "all funds rushing in together" anymore; it seems more like funds are starting to pick directions.
If BTC can truly turn 80,000 into support going forward, I'd be more optimistic.
If it rallies and then falls back again, then it looks like continued consolidation.
Watching the non-farm tonight feels way more interesting than guessing candlesticks 😂
What do you think? After the non-farm comes out, will BTC rally first or drop first?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Waller speaks out: August inflation will decide whether to raise interest rates in September! The real test for BTC has arrived.
The core contradiction in the market is becoming increasingly clear:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation has not been fully resolved.
Waller's latest statement sends a very clear signal:
If August inflation continues to decline, he tends to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, rate hikes remain an option.
What does this mean?
The September FOMC is no longer about who sounds more hawkish, but about which side the data ultimately supports.
This news is especially important for BTC.
Because the market may soon trade around a very clear transmission chain:
August CPI → September rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields → US dollar index → global risk appetite → BTC
If CPI continues to cool down:
CPI↓ → rate hike probability↓ → US Treasury yields↓ → USD↓ → liquidity expectations improve → BTC↑
This is the most comfortable macro environment for BTC.
But if CPI rises again:
CPI↑ → rate hike probability↑ → US Treasury yields↑ → USD↑ → risk appetite declines → BTC under pressure
And now there is a new variable—oil prices.
Recent Middle East tensions have caused crude oil prices to rise significantly. If high oil prices further transmit to transportation, energy, and commodity prices, the market's biggest concern will emerge:
Energy inflation resurges.
This is not good news for the Federal Reserve.
Because US employment is already showing signs of cooling, but if inflation rebounds, the Fed will be in a very awkward position:
Cutting rates risks inflation, maintaining high rates risks further employment deterioration.
So in the next two weeks, the market is likely to see very obvious data battles.
First hurdle: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows, rate hike expectations will cool first.
BTC may react first.
Second hurdle: August CPI.
This is the key data that truly determines the direction of the September FOMC.
If CPI continues to cool, Waller's statement today will be further interpreted by the market as a dovish signal.
If CPI rises beyond expectations, Wash's previous hawkish logic may regain the upper hand.
Then the market will not be trading "whether to raise rates in September," but rather:
"Does the Fed need to raise rates again?"
These two expectations have completely different impacts on BTC.
So what BTC needs to watch most now is not just a technical breakout.
But whether macro liquidity has truly started to shift.
If the following occurs:
Weak nonfarm + cooling CPI + falling US Treasury yields + weakening USD + continued inflows into BTC ETFs
Then the high-level consolidation is very likely to gradually evolve into new upward momentum.
But if the following occurs:
Strong nonfarm + CPI rebound + rising US Treasury yields + strengthening USD
Then even if BTC surges short-term, caution is needed for a pullback or even retesting lower support.
So don't rush to judge bull or bear now.
What the market is really waiting for are these two cards: nonfarm and CPI.
Waller has made it very clear:
Whether to raise rates in September depends on data, not stories.
In short: nonfarm determines the first wave of expectations, CPI determines the final direction; and BTC's biggest trading mainline going forward is the "inflation → rate hikes → US Treasuries → USD → liquidity" chain. $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Just now, $BTC peaked at $82,000. If you only look at $BTC, today is a very beautiful breakout candlestick. But what really excites me is that this rally has started to spread into the altcoin market. $ETH has returned above $2,400, $BNB risen to around $700, $XRP directly surged above $1.4, $SOL climbed back above $100. And that's just the first level. Looking down, funds have clearly started looking for higher-beta assets. $ZEC today's gains were extremely exaggerated and have regained status as one of the strongest stocks in the market; $ENA also showed a clear rally; $ARB started catching up, $ADA also showed strong performance. This is what I've been waiting for: not BTC rising, but after BTC finishes rising, funds start to complain that BTC is not rising fast enough. If this logic continues to spread, I will focus on several groups next. First group: $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, $XRP. This is the "thermometer" of the altcoin market. $ETH can hold above $2500, it is highly significant; $SOL it rises above $105, it means risk appetite continues to rise; $BNB if it breaks above $720, there is a chance to further open up space; $XRP if it holds above $1.45, short-term strength may continue. Second group: $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV, $PENDLE, $ENA. This group is DeFi. If $ETH continues to rise, I will insteadSeptember BTC Historical Performance
September has not had a good reputation in Bitcoin's history. In the 13 Septembers since 2013, 8 ended down, with an average decline of 3.08% and a median of -3.12%, making it one of the worst-performing months of the year. From 2017 to 2022, September closed negative for six consecutive years.
However, this pattern has failed in the last three years, with gains of 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025.
This year, Bitcoin rose 24.95% in August, marking the largest single-month gain in 2026, with the price surging from the $60,000 range to above $80,000 at one point. Previously, it had fallen 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2. As of early September, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $75,000 and $78,000, still quite far from the all-time high of $126,000, with a market dominance of 59.16% and a total crypto market cap of $2.675 trillion. In the last week of August, crypto funds saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, the largest weekly amount since October 2025.
At least from a capital flow perspective, the start of September is worth looking forward to. $BNB bulls are starting to weaken after the surge
BNB's short-term rebound has been strong, but the upward momentum is already fading.
Large cycle funds have not returned; this wave can only be considered a rebound.
Currently, on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is very volatile, not suitable for aggressive chasing of gains.
Key levels to watch:
Upper resistance around 730.
Key support at 700, followed by 690.
Price must hold above resistance to have room to continue upward; if support breaks, the rebound structure will be destroyed.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ⚠️ BTC short-term clearly "switching from short to long"
BTC quickly surged from about $77,000 on September 3 to a high of around $82,000, reclaiming the key resistance at $80,000. The short-term trend shifted from a rebound to a breakout structure.
Core reversal: Waller stated that if inflation cools down, the rate is likely to be maintained in September, with the probability of a rate hike dropping from about 63% to about 50%;
Regarding ETFs, on September 2, spot BTC ETF net inflow was +$101.1 million (IBIT +$115.4 million), a significant reversal from the large outflow the previous day.
Derivatives show massive short covering, with total market short liquidations exceeding about $443 million (BTC about $205 million).
Short-term bias is 8/10 bullish, stop shorting the rebound.
Trading plan:
• Go long on a pullback between $79,500–80,200 without breaking below, stop loss at $78,700, targets at $82,800 → $85,000 → $86,500.
• Secondary option: 1-hour candle close breakout above $82,800 + moderate increase in OI + Funding not extremely positive, go long on breakout, same targets as above.
Maximum risk: Today's non-farm payrolls. If data significantly exceeds expectations, pushing up rate hike expectations and 10Y yield back above 4.8%, this rally may quickly give back gains.
Invalidation line: $78,700. If it breaks below and OI increases, consider it a false breakout and cancel all long plans.
Current execution: No shorting, no chasing $81K; wait for pullback to confirm breakout.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Supplement: This address added 323,125 UNI again 8 minutes ago, worth 2.08 million USD
Today, a total of 1 million $UNI has been accumulated, with a total value of 6.355 million USD, at an average price of about $6.35
Wallet address 0xc8686f611D59DeEe9c549bc844E4AD314e0F4972ETH surged sharply overnight, jumping 5.01% in 24 hours and returning to around $2,505. BTC also climbed back above 80,000, quoted at $80,917. Mainstream coins like SOL, DOGE, ADA, and XRP all strengthened, and market sentiment clearly warmed up. But don't get too excited—the "engine" behind this rally is short covering, not incremental buying and buying long. In the past 24 hours, about $2.01 billion was liquidated across the network, with short positions liquidating $1.7 billion, accounting for over 80%—in short, this rally was largely driven up by the blowdown from the short sellers. On the capital side, BTC recorded a net inflow of $3.42 billion, ETH net inflow of $990 million, showing some capital returning to mainstream assets; but the Panic and Greed Index has surged from 65 to 74, entering the greed zone within a day, and short-term rally momentum is rapidly accumulating. On the market front, ETH rebounded from around 2355 all the way to 2505, a rebound of about 6.3%. The 4-hour MACD maintained a golden cross, and the 15-minute and 1-hour levels are also recovering, indicating short-term structural strengthening. But note, above are two resistance levels—2534 is the starting point for this pullback, 2566 is the previous high. If these two levels are not broken, it can only be considered an oversold rebound, not a reversal. Below, watch 2400 and 2355; if it falls, it means this rebound is just a pin. More importantly, the real test is coming tonight. At 20:30, the U.S. will release August nonfarm payroll data, which directly determines the Fed's next moveETH Market Review: Officials' Statements and Subsequent Market and Capital Changes
⚠️This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
1. Macro Expectation Reversal: Hawkish Officials Soften Stance, Market Reprices Interest Rate Path
Federal Reserve's Waller's public speech on September 3 marked a key short-term market turning point:
1. He clearly stated that if subsequent inflation data continues to decline, he tends to keep the current interest rate unchanged at the September meeting; this statement directly reduced the market's September rate hike probability from the previous 63% to 48.4%, releasing the previously fully priced-in rate hike risk.
2. As an official previously holding a relatively hawkish stance, this statement was interpreted by the market as a further convergence of the Fed's current rate hike cycle. U.S. Treasury yields surged then fell back, the dollar index weakened, and risk assets collectively began to recover, with U.S. growth stocks and precious metals strengthening simultaneously.
3. Transmission to the crypto market: liquidity pressure marginally eases. ETH, as a high-beta risk asset, is significantly more sensitive to Fed policy changes than BTC; when interest rate expectations change, ETH's volatility tends to be greater.
2. Current Market and Capital Status
After the news, the market quickly reacted, with ETH starting a rebound from previous lows, but this is only an expectation recovery; fundamentals have not materially changed. On-chain and derivatives capital show: short-term shorts concentratedly covered, funding rates rapidly rising from negative; however, incremental capital entering the spot market is limited, mostly internal leveraged funds speculating on expectations, with no large-scale sustained net inflows. BTC followed the rebound but with weaker gains than ETH, indicating capital rotation within the market towards ETH.
3. Key Points for Future Observation
The current market is only trading on expectation recovery from officials' statements; everything still awaits verification from non-farm payroll and inflation data.
If subsequent employment and inflation data continue to cool, rate hike expectations will further fade, and ETH's rebound potential will expand; if data again shows strength, the officials' softened stance will be disproved, and the market will face renewed pressure and correction.
At this stage, do not treat the statements directly as a trend reversal signal; expectations can change rapidly, data is the ultimate benchmark, and leveraged positions must be risk-controlled.
$ETH #比特币再破80000美元 BTC vs ETH: BULL MARKET SHOWDOWN 🔥
**Current Price Check - 7:29 AM**
**$BTC $80,671 (-0.68%)** 🟠
No.1 | Digital Gold | 30D: +24.82%
**$ETH $2,497 (-0.34%)** 🔵
No.2 | Infrastructure | 30D: +30.90%
### **Here's the story:**
BTC is the leader. When it moves, the entire market follows.
ETH is the engine. DeFi, L2s, NFTs all run on it.
**90 Day Performance Tells It All:**
ETH: **+59.22%** vs BTC: **+32.57%.
#DailyOrbit The crypto market entered September 4 with a different picture than the previous correction. $BTC has returned above the $80,000 mark, while $ETH approached $2,500, $XRP surpassed $1.45, $SOL remained above $103. What is noteworthy lies not only in the rise of individual coins, but in the reason behind it: US monetary policy expectations are changing rapidly in the face of important employment data. This is a session where the market is reacting to a change in macro expectations, rather than just oneMany AI models collectively predict that tonight's non-farm payroll data will most likely be lower than expected.
If employment data weakens, it will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, suppressing the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Improved liquidity expectations theoretically directly benefit $BTC and $XAUT, both of which are assets highly sensitive to interest rates.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
But model predictions are not facts; non-farm payrolls often deviate significantly from expectations. We also need to watch the unemployment rate and wage growth simultaneously. If wages remain high, even if new employment falls short of expectations, the positive effect will be weakened.
#比特币再破80000美元
There is a high risk of spikes before and after the data release, so do not heavily speculate in advance. It is safer to wait for the complete data release and observe market support before making operational decisions. $XAU #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 Why did the market suddenly rally collectively last night?
No beating around the bush, here are 5 quick comments straight to the point 👇
Quick Comment 1: Waller signals "pause on rate hikes," market cheers first
The biggest variable last night was still the Federal Reserve.
Waller's latest statement is very clear: if the inflation data in August continues to improve, he tends to support keeping the current interest rate unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, he does not rule out voting to raise rates.
More importantly, the three-month core inflation has already dropped from about 4.8% in February to about 3.1% as of July, showing a clear downward trend.
So the market's first reaction is simple:
Rate hike expectations cool down → US Treasury yields fall → US dollar weakens → Risk assets collectively recover.
But note, Waller is not unconditionally dovish; the meeting on September 15–16 will still be data-driven to decide the direction.
---
Quick Comment 2: Geopolitical risks have not worsened for now, risk appetite returns
The Middle East remains the biggest "bomb" in the market.
But last night the market was not trading on a full escalation, rather on eased concerns about the conflict spiraling further out of control.
However, we shouldn't be too optimistic—latest news shows there are still military actions between the US and Iran, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been truly resolved.
So more accurately:
Geopolitical risk premium has cooled down but has not disappeared.
As long as oil prices do not spiral out of control, the market has some breathing room. Recovery above the $80,000 mark! $BTC retakes the key range
Intraday price surged above $80,800. Compared to last week's dip to $76,000 triggered by macroeconomic comments, this rebound leans more towards a secondary confirmation of the market structure. Many voices previously declared the rally over and predicted a bearish drop to $60,000, but the capital flow did not follow the pessimistic expectations, proving solid support at the lower levels.
The source of buying support is very clear: spot ETFs provide the most direct confidence. Recent consecutive days of net capital inflows have stabilized market sentiment. The overall inflow scale in August has significantly increased compared to July, making it one of the strongest months for capital inflows recently. Institutional channels are not just for show; real money is entering the market.
Market signals resonate simultaneously: Coinbase's premium relative to Binance has turned from negative to positive, indicating a warming of buying demand in the U.S. market. After several months of weakening premiums, this reversal shows that compliant funds and institutional buying are returning.
However, with the market warming up, blind chasing of highs should be avoided. The $80,000–$81,000 range is a pressure zone from previous rallies and pullbacks. True confirmation of bullish strength requires a pullback to hold $78,000–$79,000, accompanied by sustained volume and ETF capital inflows. Upcoming employment data and interest rate expectations will still cause significant volatility, so leverage positions must be conservatively managed.
In the short term, regaining $80,000 merely reflects bullish sentiment; only a valid breakout and hold above $81,000 will fully open the upside. Regarding position strategy, holding a base position can be patiently maintained following the structure, and those planning to enter the market can consider doing so.$BTC — I’M MORE INTERESTED IN THE RETEST THAN THE BREAKOUT.
Bitcoin reclaiming $80K is definitely constructive, but I don't think the first move higher is where I want to make my biggest decision.
BTC is now approaching the $82K–$83K resistance zone, and after a sharp rally, volatility can easily increase.
We could see profit-taking.
We could see a liquidity sweep.
We could see BTC reject resistance and come back down to test the breakout.
And honestly, that wouldn't necessarily be bearish.
A healthy retest can give the market a chance to establish whether buyers are actually willing to defend the reclaimed levels.
That's what I'm waiting for.
I don't want to buy simply because Bitcoin is moving quickly.
I want to see:
Breakout → pullback → retest → liquidity → confirmation.
If BTC holds the retest and buyers step back in, that gives me a much cleaner setup to consider increasing exposure.
Until then, I'm keeping things controlled.
The ETF picture also reinforces the need for selectivity.
Bitcoin demand remains supportive, but altcoin flows aren't showing the same level of conviction.
So I'm separating my exposure by risk:
Core: $BTC, $ETH
Growth: $SOL, $XRP
High beta: $HYPE, $ZEC
Higher risk: $KAITO, $BEAT
Different assets require different risk management.
I'm bullish on opportunities, but that doesn't mean I need to chase every green candle.
The market will give us another entry if the trend is real.
For now, I'm watching $82K–$83K closely and waiting to see whether Bitcoin can turn that resistance into support.
Let the breakout prove itself. 🔥$ETH was pressured by macro factors last night, but this morning it pulled back to 2490 thanks to initial jobless claims and dovish comments from Waller.
This morning, ETH traded in the range of $2490‑2511, having followed BTC's synchronous drop last night.
Initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations combined with Waller's dovish remarks: as long as inflation falls in August, no rate hike will be considered in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from 63.2% to 50.4%. The market quickly recovered, BTC rose back to 80,800, and ETH rebounded by 4.8%‑5.3%, surging to 2494‑2511. The market feels like it was pressured by a meeting on Monday and then soothed with a comforting drink on Tuesday; sentiment briefly warmed but has not fully recovered.
The capital flow is even more interesting. ETH ETFs are not uniformly flowing in or out but rather appear to be internal position adjustments within institutions.
On September 2, spot ETH ETFs had a net outflow of 48.08 million: ETHA outflowed 53.35 million, while ETHB actually inflowed 52.92 million.
On September 4 during the US Eastern session, there was another net outflow of about 167 million, with FETH outflowing 217 million and ETHA counter-trending inflowing 149 million.
The current total AUM is about 2.778 billion USD, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 13.17 billion USD.
BlackRock's staking products and traditional spot ETFs operate independently, with Fidelity choosing to reduce positions first. Institutions are no longer blindly dollar-cost averaging but are reallocating positions among products with different maturities.
⚠️This is only a summary of market information and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; manage your positions and risk accordingly. A few days ago, the market was still discussing whether $BTC would continue to fall.
And now?
BTC has already climbed back above 80,000.
This is the most interesting part of the market — prices always move faster than sentiment.
Yesterday, BTC quickly surged from around 77K, once breaking through 82K, and the short-term structure has clearly improved.
But I won’t declare the bull market is back just because of one big bullish candle.
There is still one last hurdle:
82K–83K.
If it breaks through and holds here, it means the previous resistance is truly being digested, and we can continue to watch 85K, 88K, and 90K above.
If the breakout fails and it returns to around 80K, it doesn’t mean the trend is immediately over.
As long as around 78K can hold, this rebound structure still has observational value.
So the most important thing now is not to predict.
But to wait for confirmation.
If BTC breaks above 83K, I see room to grow; if BTC falls below 80K, I expect a pullback.
The rest, I leave to the candlesticks.Just looked at $AAOI, the AI data center optical module segment is really a love-hate relationship 😂
The stock price is now hovering around $100 (closed at about 100.38 on September 3, down 2.67%), but it has surged nearly 190% year-to-date, more than tripling in a year. However, it has already been cut in half from the May high of $233. Recently, they secured a huge order of over $200 million for 1.6T optical modules from a hyperscale customer. Q2 revenue hit a new high of about $192 million, non-GAAP turned positive, and Q3 guidance is still very strong.
However, at the end of August, they announced a maximum $600 million secondary offering plan, which caused dilution concerns and directly knocked the stock price down. Capacity expansion is also accelerating (Texas factory ramp-up), and people are still debating whether demand is enough to absorb these shares. Short-term volatility is real, but the long-term logic of following AI infrastructure remains.
What do you think? Is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or better to wait and see? #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 #WallerEyesAugCPI Waller’s latest comments make the September decision feel more conditional than the market was pricing a few days ago 👀
He said he favors holding if August inflation continues to improve, but could support a hike if the data comes in strong. Next week’s CPI and PPI will be central to that call, while he described the labor market as satisfactory.
Jobless claims came in at 206K, close to expectations and still within this year’s familiar range. Meanwhile, CME odds of a 25bp hike fell to 50.2% from above 70%, as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar weakened 📉
To me, that shift shows how little conviction the market currently has. Expectations are moving sharply even though the underlying data has changed only gradually.
Tonight’s payroll report should add another clue—but inflation still looks like the final test before the September meeting.Quick Review 1: Waller's attitude softens, market re-bets on September policy Last night, what really ignited risk assets was Fed expectations. Waller sent a clearly dovish signal: if inflation continues to cool, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged in September. The market immediately repriced, and concerns about a policy shift in September have clearly diminished. In short: Inflation does not continue to worsen → The Fed does not need to rush tightening→ liquidity expectations improve. BTC, the Nasdaq, and high-beta assets naturally reacted immediately. Quick Commentary 2: Trump's speech temporarily eases geopolitical risks Trump continued to signal easing last night, indicating that military operations in the Middle East will not continue indefinitely, while risk expectations related to the Strait of Hormuz eased. Geopolitical premiums that the market had priced in on oil prices have begun to be withdrawn. With oil price pressure easing, the market's favorite scenario emerges: reduced war risk + cooling energy prices + return of risk appetite. Naturally, funds are shifting from defensive to equity and crypto assets. Quick Commentary 3: US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, but gold remains strong. Becent's latest statement continues to emphasize that US inflation is generally under control. Subsequently, US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index fell in tandem. Interestingly, gold remains strong, climbing back above $4,500. This shows that the market is not simply "risk-on," but rather: dollar under pressure + rising rate cut expectations + safe-haven demand remains. Therefore, the simultaneous strength of gold and BTC is not contradictoryLast night, Bitcoin surged to 82100, now it has pulled back to 80686. The nature of this rally is different from what everyone expected, and I'll explain it in four layers. First layer, this is not really about the crypto market.
The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. The key is to consider what the market was thinking before this statement. The derivatives market had priced in a 50% to 70% chance of a rate hike in September—note, a hike, not a cut—so everyone was already bracing for a hit.
Then suddenly, he said it might not happen.
This is a difference in expectations. It's not about how big the positive news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectations. Second layer, this is a reduction of negative factors, not an increase in positive factors—these two are completely different. Real positive news means new money coming in, like ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negatives means those who were planning to exit no longer do, shorts are forced to cover, and this money was already in the market, just changing direction.
A move from 77100 to 82100, a 5,000-point jump, largely driven by short covering.
The problem with rallies driven by short covering is that once it's done, it's over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch.
Third layer, the foundation of this positive news is fragile.
Waller is just one governor, not the entire committee; his stance doesn’t mean the meeting decision is set.
Other fundamentals remain unchanged: oil prices still at $98, 10-year Treasury yields still at 4.75, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals.
Fourth layer, what should we do now?
I’ve changed my view to bullish; the market has indeed broken upwards, and this I won’t change $BTC $DOS is trading at $0.2452 (+1.57%), holding within its 24h range between $0.2283 and $0.2471.
Price is trading above MA5 ($0.2418), MA10 ($0.2405), and MA20 ($0.2367) on the 1H, bouncing off support at $0.2443.
Driven by $5.31M USDT in daily turnover and 21.65M $DOS in 24h volume, breaking $0.2471 resistance could pave the way for a test of $0.2543 resistance level.
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin's move back above $80,000 looks more like a credible risk reset than a fleeting headline spike. ETH is slightly stronger on the day, while SOL is lagging, which argues for selective participation rather than indiscriminate momentum chasing.
My stance is cautiously constructive. Holding the $80,000 area would strengthen the case that buyers are absorbing supply, but a fast loss of that level would turn this into another failed breakout.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit The short position strategy on Bitcoin perfectly played out ✅
A bearish signal was given at midnight, setting up short positions at resistance levels. The first target of 80800‑80500 was reached as expected, with the price pulling back to 80719, locking in profits!
No chasing the rally at the top; recognizing the stagnation signal, playing the resistance level and waiting patiently for the pullback. The market moved as anticipated.A crypto treasury company compounds only while its stock trades above the coins it holds. Slip below and it reverses: no premium to issue equity against, so the choices narrow to selling the stack, getting acquired, or levering up to fake a yield. ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH for buybacks at a 30% discount; Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 0.99. My read: it's the structural cost of one reflexive asset carrying a whole equity story.
NFA — DYOR.
#CryptoTreasuryDurability Last night, the market directly staged a "short squeeze". BTC surged from around $77,000, reaching a high close to $82,000, with a single-day increase exceeding 6% at one point. Meanwhile, mainstream coins like $ETH and $XRP also strengthened simultaneously, and the overall crypto market risk appetite clearly warmed up. The core catalyst for this rise was still the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently sent a clearly dovish signal: if the inflation data for August continues to improve, he tends to support pausing rate hikes in September; but if inflation heats up again, he will still consider raising rates. The market immediately reacted — the expectation for a September rate hike quickly dropped from about 63% the day before to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened in sync, and BTC followed through to break above $80,000. But here’s the question: Is the $80,000 breakthrough the start of a new rally, or just a short-term sentiment peak? I am now focusing on three key areas👇 📌 First resistance: $82,000–$83,000 This is a dense area of previous highs; if volume increases and it holds above this level, there will be a chance to further open up upside space. 📌 First support: around $80,000 Whether BTC can turn $80,000 from resistance into support after the breakout is very critical. If it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback, the bullish structure remains intact; if it falls back below, be cautious of seeking support in the $77,000–$78,000 range. 📌 More importantly, macro data The U.S. August CPI will be released on September 11, which is the real "test".From the perspective of position structure, the account's current total leverage ratio is as high as 6.13x, and all three assets (PIPPIN, TRUMP, BONK) are in short (sell) positions. This one-sided positioning indicates that traders are extremely bearish on the current market sentiment or are concentrating their attacks on specific hot tokens (such as Meme coins). Regarding trading details, the strategy clearly shows a tendency of "heavy positions to seek small profits":
PIPPINUSDT: Using 3x leverage, holding 600 units, with a return rate of 12.05%, but the actual profit is only 0.48 USDT.
TRUMPUSDT: Using 5x leverage, return rate 13.70%, profit 0.56 USDT.
BONKUSDT: Using 5x leverage, holding a huge amount (12.8 million units), return rate 9.96%, profit 0.81 USDT.
Core risk analysis: Asymmetric profit and loss: the total profit of the three positions is less than 2 USDT, but each position uses 4-8 USDT margin and bears about 5x leverage risk for this small profit. If the market moves against the position by 15%-20%, the principal will face a huge drawdown risk.
Meme coin volatility risk: The selected assets are all highly volatile Meme or politically themed coins (TRUMP, BONK). These assets are prone to "spike" movements, and 5x leverage can easily trigger forced liquidation under extreme volatility. Although the current maintenance margin ratio seems very high (1000%+), this is calculated based on the current small profit state; if prices rebound, the safety buffer will quickly disappear. Sorted it out a bit: Hawks think Iran is a mess, oil prices are soaring, so interest rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. Doves believe that the sharp rise in European and American bond yields approaching new highs makes rate hikes a further burden on bonds, plus pressure from Trump, so they probably won't dare to raise rates.
Hawks worry about "inflation getting out of control," while doves worry that "the bond market will crash first" $CL $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 The boot hasn't landed yet, and the knife hanging over our heads has been replaced by the CPI data.
He didn't turn hawkish; the treasury yields fell, providing short-term support for Bitcoin, allowing it to catch a breather tonight.
The decision power is handed over to the CPI: he clearly said whether to raise rates in September depends entirely on next week's CPI, which means BTC will be driven by CPI expectations over the next week, with the fuse for a sharp rise or fall set for next week.
Currently, the market's upside and downside are locked: he said if inflation improves, there will be a pause, which is short-term bullish, but also clearly stated that if CPI rebounds, rate hikes will resume, which is clearly bearish.
Bitcoin will most likely remain in a range-bound consolidation, making it difficult to see a strong one-sided trend. $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Ansem盛赞Bonk Guy为公开场合最强交易员：多次命中BONK、WIF、Fartcoin大行情 9月4日，知名交易员Ansem在直播中盛赞交易员Bonk Guy（Unipcs）为顶级交易员，称其长期公开分享盈亏与交易逻辑，曾交易BONK获利超1000万美元、在市值不足1000万美元时买入WIF，并命中Fartcoin等Meme币大行情，表示公开场合里不知道还有谁比他更强。 9月4日，知名加密交易员Ansem在直播中对交易员Bonk Guy（Unipcs）给出极高评价，称其为顶级交易员，并表示在公开场合里不知道还有谁比他更强。Ansem列举了Bonk Guy的多个公开战绩：上一个周期，Bonk Guy就公开分享自己的盈亏记录，当时几乎没有人这么做。在公开给出交易逻辑后，他成功命中了多个Meme币大行情，包括交易BONK赚取超过1000万美元；在dogwifhat（WIF）市值还不到1000万美元的极早期阶段买入；以及命中后来爆火的Fartcoin。Ansem强调，Bonk Guy长期公开分享交易思路，多次成功抓住Meme代币的大行情，命中的次数太多了。在加密交易圈，实时公开盈亏并同导语 虽有可能再创新低，但已进入周期级配置区间。 本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 撰文 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS 8月末，$BTC BTC收于78,564美元，录得熊市以来最大单月涨幅，计25.04%。单看盘面，足以让人重新评估所处阶段：BTC现货ETF日均净流入由7月的1,165万美元升至1.0613亿美元，全市场日均资本流由-7,478万美元转为1.9919亿美元，稳定币日均净流量也由-9,348万美元转为+4,114万美元；价格重新站上短期持有者成本线70,936美元和真实市场价格76,403美元。 问题不在于是否有资金流入，而在于这轮资金为何而来、是什么属性，以及入场条件能维持多久。 持续约半年的熊市出清，是否已经足以完成上一周期的筹码重构，使8月成为新周期的起点；还是卖压暂时疲惫之际，被事件资金和空头轧空放大的一次过于猛烈的熊市反弹？ 8月结束时，减半周期熊市在时间上已经步入后期。eMerge IS系统仍把8月定位在下降期向磨底期转换阶段；EMC Labs认为，是时候将“旧周期是否正在结束、新周期是否开始尝试打开$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $CORE 【CORE dropped again, is the problem really solved?】
CORE barely managed to rebound to around 0.0236, but it couldn't hold. The price keeps fluctuating, and the market simply isn't buying it.
The hard fork was indeed executed, permanently burning over 150 million CORE tokens, and malicious validators can no longer profit. But none of the core questions have been answered: exactly how much CORE was overissued? Have any extra tokens already entered the market? How exactly did the vulnerability occur?
The technical review report is still not released, and the official statement just says "user asset security" and that's it. Exchange restrictions haven't been fully lifted either.
You say this is all staged? Can't say for sure, but the project's "half-eat, half-hide" attitude really makes it hard to trust. A short-term deflation narrative rebound is fine, but long-term trust? Sorry, without the report, the risk remains. Do you trust it or do you trust me, Qin Shi Huang?Guys, Bitcoin is back in the market. BTC's latest price is around 80,800-81,200, up over 5% in 24 hours, and at one point approached 82,000 during trading. It pulled back from yesterday's low of 77,000 to 81,000, rising over 4,000 points in one day. ETH also rose above 2,500. In the past 24 hours, over $400 million was liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for more than 80%. The panic and greed index rose from 63 to 65, with sentiment moving from "greed" to "extreme greed." How is this different from the breakout on August 25? Last time it was a direct rally—surging all at once without sufficient turnover, failing to hold and falling back to 77,000 in three days. This time, the bottom is confirmed first before the rally—77,000 is a triple bottom, lows keep rising, and only after holding above 80,000 does chasing sentiment be activated. A breakout that has pulled back, changed hands, and confirmed support is more reliable than the first breakthrough. Four things are happening simultaneously. First, rate hike expectations have plummeted from 63% to 50%. Fed Governor Waller sent a dovish signal—if August inflation data continues to improve, he will support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 63.2% to 50.4%. Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to around 4.76%, weakening the dollar. Macroeconomic headwinds are fading. Second, ETFs are continuously buying stocks. On September 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $358 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $269$BTC first retreated then followed the US stock market recovery, currently around 81000. The key level between bulls and bears is 80000; only a stable hold can talk about continuation, while losing it would return to the 77000 rebound starting point. #比特币再破80000美元
$ETH around 2500, with 2600 above confirming rebound strength, and 2450 below as the defense line; losing it means weakness.
$SOL around 104, first watching the 100 whole number support on the pullback; if broken, its elasticity is greater than $BTC and $ETH, making it easier to be swept on non-farm payroll night.
The three major mainstreams rebound simultaneously but have not shown independent trends; tonight will follow interest rate pricing. About $400 million liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, mostly shorts, indicating rebound squeeze; fees remain moderate, and leverage has not been cleared. Funds are mostly cautious.
US stocks rebounded for the second consecutive day, $QQQ +1.40%, $SPY +1.06%. AI leads the gains, $NVDA closed at 228.45 and announced about $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face; $META +3.01%, $MSFT +2.68%, $AAPL closed slightly higher. Waller said if inflation continues to decline, he tends to hold steady in September; the decline in US Treasury yields is the main reason for the rebound. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Tonight's non-farm payroll is the key to setting the tone for September's path; overall, it is still a policy expectation-driven recovery, so positions remain cautious. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 A few days ago, we were still discussing Strategy hoarding BTC, Robinhood's on-chain business heating up, and Circle's stablecoin expansion. But once risk appetite returned, funds rushed directly into high-volatility assets. $MSTR surged about 17% in a single day, $HOOD nearly 16%, $CRCL also rose about 16%, and $BMNR likewise recorded double-digit gains. In contrast, the US stock market only saw moderate gains, while crypto-related stocks clearly exhibited higher Beta. The logic behind this is actually simple: BTC rises → crypto market sentiment recovers → funds chase high-volatility stocks. Especially companies like MSTR, which are highly tied to BTC assets, act like a leverage layer on top of BTC's market when conditions are good; while HOOD and CRCL are more driven by trading activity, stablecoin, and digital asset business expectations. What's more noteworthy is that after Waller signaled a dovish stance, market concerns about continued rate hikes in September have eased, with BTC once surging near $81,000, directly boosting risk appetite across the crypto sector. But today there is a real big test: the US August non-farm payrolls. The market currently expects about 58,000 new jobs; if the data is significantly weak, it may further strengthen easing expectations; conversely, if employment exceeds expectations, crypto high-Beta assets might first rise then fall. 📌 The core issue now is not "who rises the most," but who can continue after the non-farm payrolls On September 4th, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest catalyst for the market today.
What the market is most conflicted about right now is not the nonfarm data itself, but whether it will continue to change the Fed's rate hike expectations for September 16th.
Currently, the market's judgment on a September rate hike has quickly dropped from over 60% the day before to nearly an even split. Waller's statement yesterday also led the market to start betting again on "maintaining the current interest rate."
So today, we can simply consider three scenarios:
First, nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected.
Employment continues to cool down, the probability of a rate hike may further decline, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000.
Second, data basically meets expectations.
The market may fluctuate briefly but will ultimately return to rate expectations and the September 11 CPI.
Third, nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected.
Rate hike expectations rise again, the dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure, risk assets suffer, and BTC may instead retest lower support levels.
Interestingly, the options market has already made defensive moves in advance, with obvious downside protection layouts in the $68,000–$75,000 range.
So what’s really worth watching today is not whether the nonfarm data is bullish or bearish.
It’s how the funds reprice rates and BTC after the data is released.
$BTC Next is the Solana section
The current price is about 100, stuck in the middle zone between bulls and bears, not yet entering the shortable area, nor has it returned to the long zone I want.
SOL still follows Bitcoin's big swings up and down, so don't treat it as independently strong yet. I suggest waiting for a retest near 95 to gradually buy longs, with a stop loss at 90; consider shorts only when it approaches 120 to 130. Only after breaking through 130 should you seriously reconsider the positioning; for now, don't prematurely change your framework.
The US stock spot Solana ETF funds started to shake in the past two days. On September 1, there was still about $10.2 million net inflow, but the next day it turned into about $6.13 million net outflow, mainly from Bitwise BSOL outflows. Institutions haven't fully exited, but the rhythm is no longer as stable as in late August. In the short term, it looks more like rotation and turnover following the broader market. The chips are still fluctuating, so don't rush to claim that the earlier inflows have already formed an independent trend.Shorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
#DailyOrbit The moment Jensen Huang dropped this acquisition pawn, the entire open file on the chessboard quietly changed hands. Hugging Face is not a chip, not computing power, but the chessboard behind all AI players' opening repertoire—the $12.93 billion purchase is the opening library of the entire ecosystem.
$11.9 billion given to shareholders is the pawn already in the mouth; $1 billion reserved for employees is the soft ribbon hanging on the king's wing. Outsiders look at valuation, insiders look at the hidden intention behind this move. The loudest move is hidden in the promise—"no mandatory use of Nvidia computing." This is equivalent to telling opponents: choose your opening. But grandmasters all understand, the real trap is not refusing to vary, but making the opponent believe they have the freedom to choose. When Fischer abandoned the queen in Reykjavik, it was not the queen itself but the psychological space conceded to the opponent that mattered.
Hugging Face is that central square. Models, datasets, and AI applications all revolve around this square. Controlling the center square but not immediately delivering checkmate is Nvidia's smartest sequence. Because once the pawn directly attacks the king's wing, regulators will intervene like referees calling a stop for "threefold repetition." So it yields the queen's wing, temporarily guards its composure, continues to open interfaces, and does not block lines. But all developers moving pieces along this open file must pay an invisible toll: learning paths, model formats, deployment habits, and the archival rights of every future game record. First occupy the standards, then consider monetization—this is the order after long consideration, not a momentary skirmish.
Regulatory eyes fall from two sides. One is scrutiny of monopoly over the computing layer, the other is concern over the concentration of model distribution entry points. The queen's wing rooks have already connected the semi-open file, forcing the opponent's castle defense to shrink. Legislators on both sides of the ocean are like raising the chess clock to count down, but the deal is not set to close until the first half of 2027. The time gap creates a subtle "transition": enough for all parties to complete piece exchanges, and enough for laws to leave a new horizontal line on the chessboard. All rules are modified before the endgame—this is a game history repeatedly tells.
Look again at the sideline $xUSAR. It is like a white-square bishop, not on the main battlefield but closely watching this diagonal. The market interprets the concessions and reversals in the "open promise," and it then leans forward to sprint; when the antitrust cloud drifts by, it quickly retreats back to its camp. Large orders on the token market are arranged like waiting moves common in endgames—who moves first exposes intentions; who controls the line can harvest the opponent's hesitation in the pendulum swing. It has not promoted yet, but every move it makes prices the final position.
True masters do not ask "Will buying the open center destroy openness?" They only ask: who adjudicates the boundaries of this open file, who records the takebacks, who decides when to exchange pieces. When all opponents think they can still freely move along this open file of public documents, the pawns they advance in the midgame have long been firmly pinned down by that bishop lurking under the diagonal. As for when it will promote—that is the matter of the endgame. #nvidiahuggingfacedealNonfarm payroll data ignited the market, with BTC surging from 76,151 to 80,640, a nearly 6% increase in a single day, returning above 80,000. The hourly MACD golden cross is diverging upward, with trading volume significantly expanding and strong bullish momentum. However, 81,000-81,500 is the previous high resistance zone and the key resistance level for this round of rally. If volume increases, a new high is expected; if it pulls back under pressure, a double top structure will form. Whoever wins or bears will follow. Keep a close eye on these two levels. Key points: 80,000-80,200. If the pullback holds, the bullish trend will continue. Target is 81,500-82,000. Key points: 81,000-81,500. If the rebound comes under pressure, bears will take over. Target is 80,000-79,500. Logic for bullish and bearish views: (1) The unexpected nonfarm payroll reaction strengthens expectations for rate cuts, confirming a macro liquidity turning point, and risk assets are rebounding across the board. (2) Hourly volume increases and breaks through multiple resistance levels at 78,000, 79,000, and 80,000; MACD golden cross is rising , strong bullish trend (3) Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, institutional funds continue to replenish the market. Bearish reasons: (1) 81,000-81,500 is a previous high resistance zone; all three peaks in August ended in pullback, leaving trapped positions heavy. (2) Sharp single-day surges close to 6%, short-term overbought and RSI near overbought zone, increasing the risk of chasing highs (3) After nonfarm payrolls are realized, there is a lack of new catalysts to drive further upward movement. What should I do? Go long on pullback: If 80,000-80,200 does not break, buy long, stop loss at 79,500, target 81,500-82,000. Do on the rebound🔥$ETH On-Chain Talk Show: Staking queue is 36 days long, mainnet burns 38 ETH, some L2s earn 3.75 million daily while others shut down
Newcomers often get fooled by "busy ecosystem" when looking at ETH. Let's laugh first at three sets of data:
Staking is like waiting in line at a popular restaurant: about 42.6 million ETH staked, accounting for 34.94% of circulating supply, 2.074 million in queue, waiting about 36 days, no exit queue; this means everyone wants to lock up for yield, but new money entering has to wait a month, so short-term circulation may not tighten immediately.
Mainnet is like an energy-saving office: sampling 20 blocks shows base fee at 0.1332 gwei, total L1 fees over 30 days about $10.4 million, annualized about $127 million; since the merge, daily burn averages 1391 ETH, now only about 38.7 ETH daily, remaining 2.8%. After Blob moved Rollup data off-chain, L1 execution demand became sparse. "Network busy" does not equal "mainnet burning money"; the deflation story depends on high-value L1 settlement.
L2 differentiation is like two company departments: Robinhood Chain daily fees $3.75 million, exceeding Solana + ETH mainnet + Base; but small network Silicon stopped deposits on September 2 and testnet, withdrawals only until December 31. Big L2s have volume, small L2s run away. When looking at the ecosystem, don't just look at total TVL.
"$ETH = staking long queues, mainnet energy-saving, big L2s making money, small L2s shutting down; true scarcity looks at L1 actual burn + big L2 retention, not just the four words 'Ethereum is busy'." Above the 80th floor, the dampers begin to emit a low-frequency whine—you all focus only on the order book, while I follow the core tube wall to find the yield point of the rebar.
80,000 is not just a simple price line. If it can stand above it again, it means the main structure has not yet reached the yield bending moment, but it repeatedly probes and hovers between 80,000 and 82,500, because this floor is the transfer floor of the entire building. With the Fed-hike expectations fading and U.S. Treasury yields dropping, it’s like a row of anchor cables on the north side of the foundation pit has been removed. There is a principle in structural codes: when soil pressure changes, all temporary supports must be recalculated. The market is now recalculating the pile cap beam called the term spread; every turn is a trace left by creep in the cracks.
The net inflow of spot ETFs in August is like concrete pump trucks continuously pouring the core tube day and night; by early September, capital inflows and outflows start to interweave, a rhythm known on construction sites as the “support replacement period.” Formwork is dismantled layer by layer, and the concrete must support the above-ground weight that is not yet complete. Any floor with inadequate curing will later show irreversible deflection. So some see the parapet at 86,000 on the blueprint—the liquid capital still insists this elevation is feasible; others choose to withdraw the pump pipe before the slab at 82,050 reaches initial set—Jiang Zhuoer’s sell was an active unload, no longer bearing the bending moment of the subsequent continuous beams.
The BTC-gold 90-day correlation curve Bitwise mentioned is not a safety lock. In architecture, this is called a rigid connection corridor: you weld the main building to a counterweight tower rich in metal reserves, which seems to stabilize the base but actually makes the two dynamic systems share vibration modes. When one side is sucked by the wind, the other side shakes along, and the curtain wall sealant ages faster than anything else in the 0.2 Hz breathing. Gold is not a cushion layer; that correlation is a beam of great stiffness, directly transmitting the macro volatility of precious metals into the load-bearing skeleton of the crypto building.
The selling pressure between 80,000 and 82,500 is an exterior wall bearing positive wind pressure, with wind load already exceeding half of the design reference period. ETF capital flow is the only energy-consuming damper, but its capacity is limited. London gold and U.S. Treasury yields continuously input low-frequency energy at the other end, and the $xMU annex building also emits a hissing friction sound along the wall corner line—its linkage direction exposes the damping ratio of the main structure: if the annex swings higher and higher, it means the main building’s joints have loosened rather than become more solid.
I zoom in on the 80,000 section, reading the least noticed node area on the architectural drawings. Welding rods and bent rebar connections differ by a hair on the drawings but diverge by miles during an earthquake. True structural safety is never written on the parapet elevation but in every encrypted stirrup hook. Raising interest rates means death, not raising interest rates also means death; this pawn is inherently toxic☠️
Think about it, with 40 trillion in US debt weighing down, raising interest rates? Interest expenses would explode, causing a fiscal collapse right before your eyes.
Not raising interest rates? The US dollar's credit continues to dilute, and inflation can't be contained.
Neither option is favorable.
So some say the cleanest solution is to start a war🔥
If they win, the debt is wiped clean; if they lose, they become slaves.
But the question is, does the US really have that determination?
I think it's doubtful.
They are now hesitant even to fight Iran, let alone make a big move to overturn the table.
After all, if a real war breaks out, the financial system collapses first, the rich flee first, who would still care about national credit?
So don't take the idea of "war solving debt" too seriously.
They don't have the guts, nor the necessity.
The most likely path is the old routine: talk tough and raise rates, but actually print money and drag it out slowly.
For us in the crypto circle, seeing through this is enough. (September 4, 2026) Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads triggered by a reversal in macro policy expectations
1. Core direction: short-term high-level oscillation and tug-of-war, upward breakout depends on macro data sentiment
Bitcoin, after experiencing a short squeeze triggered by the "Fed's dovish signals," has currently risen above the $80,000 mark (currently about $81,200). However, the short-term direction is not yet fully clear, and it is highly likely to trade sideways in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. The current daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone (above 73), and short-term momentum shows signs of weakening, indicating the market needs time to digest profits.
2. The "starting gun" for an upward breakout: today's non-farm payroll data
The biggest variable determining whether Bitcoin can firmly hold above $80,000 and push toward the $83,000-$84,000 range is the upcoming U.S. August non-farm payroll data.
● Bullish scenario: If the non-farm data is significantly below expectations (soft print), it will firmly consolidate the "no rate hike" expectation. Coupled with continued net inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $81,800 resistance level with volume and move to higher levels.
● Bearish scenario: If the non-farm data overheats, rate hike expectations may rebound, and Bitcoin will face the risk of retesting the key support level at $78,670 BTC surged back to 80,000 overnight: Is this a breakout or a pre-nonfarm rush?
$BTC
Last night, BTC suddenly rallied quickly from around $77,000, immediately reclaiming $80,000, with an intraday high close to $82,300.
Is last night's big bullish candle a true breakout, or is the market front-running ahead of the nonfarm payroll release?
First, let's look at why it rose last night
The most direct catalyst came from the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that if upcoming inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
After this statement, the market quickly lowered its bets on a September rate hike.
Previously, the market had priced in over a 63% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
After Waller's remarks, this probability dropped to about 50%.
At the same time:
US Treasury yields fell,
The dollar weakened,
US stocks rose,
BTC broke above $80,000 again.
The entire transmission logic is very coherent.
In other words, BTC's rise last night was not a baseless "crypto market sudden frenzy."
The market is actually re-pricing something:
The Fed may not be as hawkish as previously thought a few days ago.
This is certainly bullish for BTC.
Another part of last night's rally likely came from short sellers.
Before breaking $80,000, BTC had been stuck around $77,000–$78,000 for a while.
Many traders started shorting.
As a result, when the price suddenly broke out:
Shorts were liquidated,
Creating a classic short squeeze.
But after all these shorts were closed out,
The buying pressure disappeared.
So:
A short squeeze can create a breakout but cannot guarantee the breakout will hold.
What truly determines whether $80,000 can hold is:
After the squeeze ends, are there new buyers to continue supporting?
Because BTC has actually just gone through a very similar scenario.
At the end of August, BTC also broke $80,000.
Then the buying did not continue,
And the price quickly fell back to the $70,000 range.
And now there is an important level above:
Around $82,800.
This area is close to BTC's high in May this year and coincides with some long-term technical resistance zones.
More importantly: tonight is the nonfarm payrolls release.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report today at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time.
Currently, the market expects:
About 56,000 new nonfarm jobs in the US for August,
With the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%.
The market has actually already started to price this in.
After Waller's speech yesterday,
The market has partially priced in:
"The Fed may not be that hawkish."
BTC has already risen in advance.
So the real risk tonight is:
Nonfarm payrolls not cooperating.
Suppose tonight's release shows:
150,000 new jobs,
Far exceeding market expectations.
The market will immediately reconsider.
Then the macro logic that pushed BTC up last night
Could be directly reversed.
At that time: whether $80,000 is a valid breakout
Will be immediately tested.
Conversely, if tonight's nonfarm is significantly weaker than expected:
For example, only 20,000 or 30,000,
Or even negative growth again.
If BTC can still hold above $80,000,
Then I would think: the credibility of this breakout is clearly higher.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 The core logic currently affecting the Bitcoin market can be summarized in two dimensions: macro liquidity and market cycles. Macro liquidity: The market has fully priced in (Price In) • Central bank policy tightening: Due to persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank follow suit with rate hikes, major central banks worldwide tighten monetary policy, and government bond issuance in multiple countries is under pressure. • Crowding effect emerges: The explosive advancement of infrastructure such as AI has prompted large enterprises to issue large amounts of bonds, occupying a significant portion of market liquidity. Market Cycle: Bear Market Tail Support Bottom • The market is currently in the final stage of the bear cycle, a cyclical feature that provides strong downward support for coin prices and contains certain upward momentum. Market Trend Analysis • Bitcoin (BTC): With limited macro liquidity but supported by cycles, it is difficult to break through the all-time high in the short term, nor break below the $50,000 support level. A consolidating phase, slight rise, or slight pullback are high-probability trends in the current environment. If global liquidity improves significantly in the future, a main rally may break through all-time highs, or even sprint to $150,000 in the second half. • Altcoins: Divergence will become increasingly intense: • Projects with revenue/protocol fees (such as Robinhood-related UNI, ARB): Have actual fundamental support and are likely to see a rotational upward trend. • Well-known public chains with no revenue (such as DOT, ADA, APT): thresholds for receiving chains are greatly lowered (e.g.,