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Unlock calendar display: $EIGEN will have a token unlock on August 31, accounting for approximately 4.19% of the current circulating supply, corresponding to a value of about $7.1 million.
Seeing "4.19% unlock" and immediately interpreting it as "must drop" is often too simplistic.
Unlocking only means the tokens gain circulation eligibility; it does not mean holders will definitely sell on that day. What really needs to be observed is:
Whether the tokens are received by the team, investors, or ecosystem incentive accounts
Whether there is concentrated transfer to exchanges after unlocking
Whether spot trading volume can absorb the new supply
Whether perpetual contract positions and funding rates have already accumulated shorts in advance
If after unlocking the trading volume expands but the price does not continue to weaken, it indicates the market may have already priced it in; if net inflows to exchanges increase significantly while price and open interest both decline, that is closer to real supply pressure.
The most valuable aspect of an unlock event is not to provide a definite answer on price direction, but to test whether an asset currently has absorption capacity.
When you assess a token unlock, do you pay more attention to the unlock ratio or the on-chain flow? As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC 's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correctionThe spot Ethereum ETF has extended its consecutive inflow streak to the tenth trading day, with funds continuing to flow back through compliant channels. The recovery of institutional allocation willingness is a relatively positive signal, but a strong ETF does not mean an immediate price revaluation. In the short term, it is better to adopt a fluctuating approach near key levels, with volume coordination being the key.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under test
This week features four consecutive US employment reports (JOLTS / ADP / Initial Claims / August Nonfarm Payrolls), marking the first stress test after Wash's hawkish statements at Jackson Hole.
July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, with the previous two months revised down by 103,000, indicating cooling demand; however, initial claims remain low, and no large-scale layoffs have been seen yet. Wash emphasizes inflation >2% and that financial conditions are not tight enough; the September rate hike pricing has risen from about 35% to nearly 60%.
The key is not whether the economy is "weak or not," but whether economic resilience and labor market cooling can coexist. Weak growth + sticky wages = narrowest policy space; weak growth + loose wages = hawkish narrative loosens. Gold and BTC have priced in expectations first; data realization will determine further pricing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction. $SOL on August 31 fell back from 110 to 101, the uptrend weakened, intraday 107.31→100.69, a 5% drop in two hours
Triple bearish resonance:
Worse hawkish tone, 57% probability of a rate hike in September (not a cut)
Oil price breaks 90, safe-haven funds withdraw
RSI just dropped back from 84 overbought, leveraged long positions liquidated in succession Last week, Walsh delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole: inflation hasn't improved, focus shifts back to price stability. The market panicked immediately, with the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to 60%. He also criticized forward guidance, saying the market shouldn't be constantly fed information.
The market initially dropped in response, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 3.47%, Taiwan index futures plunging 457 points in the night session, the US dollar strengthening, and gold turning downward. Oil prices kept fueling the fire, with some already calling for two more hikes this year.
Anyway, from my perspective, whether rates rise or not, we can't avoid the September CPI. Inflation has dropped for two consecutive months, oil prices are pushing up again, gold prices took a hit, and some institutions say "the pullback is a window." When that time comes, will you still be in? You'll have to wait for the CPI results to decide.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 AI is likely to cut consulting firms' billable hours first. FT discussed an interesting shift today: more and more companies are starting to use AI to bring back in-house the coding, software implementation, and some analysis work that they previously outsourced to consulting firms. McKinsey's latest survey also shows a very straightforward figure: 32% of surveyed companies said that because of AI coding tools, they have already abandoned purchasing at least one software or feature they originally planned to buy. The biggest headache for consulting firms may not be that "clients no longer want consulting," but that the old logic of charging based on team size, project duration, and billable hours is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. 1. The more AI improves efficiency, the more awkward traditional billing methods become. Suppose a project used to require 10 people working for 3 months, but now with AI, it takes 3 people 1 month. From the consulting firm's perspective, this is obviously an efficiency gain, and delivery might even be faster. But from the client's perspective, the problem arises immediately: you have fewer people and less time invested, so why charge roughly the same as before? Therefore, AI has a paradoxical effect on the consulting industry: the higher the work efficiency, the harder it becomes to make money purely by "selling hours." 2. Consulting firms may sell "results" rather than "people" in the future. This change has actually already begun. BCG CEO Christoph Schweizer previously revealed that in BCG's largest AI projects, about three-quarters have already adoptedIn just a few days, BTC surged from $75,000 to $80,000, then quickly fell back to around $77,000. But so far in August, the gains have still exceeded 20%. This sharp drop is not without reason; three major events have hit the jackpot simultaneously. Walsh's hawkish speech soared the probability of a rate hike overnight. On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Mark Walsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The market waited a week, but instead received hawkish signals. In his speech, Walsh bluntly stated that US inflation has not yet shown a meaningful sustained slowdown. The Fed's preferred PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year over 12 months, with an annualized increase of 4.1% over six months. Wash made it clear that the Fed must see potential inflation approaching the 2% target fast enough, or policymakers "still have work to do." He also emphasized that the current financial environment is not restrictive, and the 2% inflation target is firm and unwavering. This statement was quickly interpreted by the market as "preparing to raise rates if necessary." Before the speech, the market priced a rate hike in September at about 35%, but after the speech, it jumped to 55.7%. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury surged, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets came under broad pressure. BTC quickly retreated from above $80,000, at one point falling to around $77,413. Wash also made things more unsettling the market. He made it clear that he was cautious of the Fed's traditional forward-looking guidance, believing that oversharing policy discussion details or overcommitting to future decisions could mislead the market and suppress the U.SThe latest ETF capital movements have sent a noteworthy signal: institutional funds are reallocating across different mainstream crypto assets. On August 27, spot ETFs performed strongly: 🟠 $BTC net inflow of about $🔵 232 million$ETH net inflow of about $214 million🟣$SOL net inflow of about $52 million🟢$XRP net inflow of about $17 million. However, by August 28, the market structure had clearly changed. $BTC Spot ETFs turned to a net outflow of about $202 million, ending a streak of inflows that had been ongoing for several days; Meanwhile, $ETH ETFs still recorded about $102 million in net inflows, maintaining strong capital appeal. 📊 This is more like a capital rotation rather than a complete exit from the crypto market. When BTC shows profit-taking, some funds may be seeking opportunities in other mainstream assets like ETH, SOL, and XRP. What truly deserves attention is not just whether the money has left, but rather — where is the money flowing? 🔥 #DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #CryptoETF #CryptoMarket#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Non-farm payrolls, ADP, initial jobless claims, a bunch of data to be released. July non-farm payrolls already surprised on the downside, this time the market is even more nervous.
Wash spoke at Jackson Hole: inflation is not yet under control, a rate hike in September is possible. The probability jumped from 35% to 60%, BTC dropped accordingly.
Now BTC is hovering around 78000, ETH grinding at 2400, both waiting for the data to set the direction. If employment data looks good, rate hike expectations heat up, putting pressure on the crypto market. If data looks bad, recession worries rise, which might actually provide some breathing room.
The crypto market now reacts to macro conditions, not on-chain data or ecosystem progress. A single statement from the Fed is more effective than ten positive news items.Today I want to talk in detail about order flow trading. When I first started trading, I was actually doing order flow trading, and this strategy has kept me profitable. Its core lies in observing large orders in the short term, treating them as points of liquidity contention between bulls and bears. Placing orders in these areas, whether to catch pullbacks or regional reversals, only captures the market moves you can actually reach. Of course, order flow can only be applied to mainstream assets; orders in altcoins are often very deceptive.
One advantage of this approach is that mainstream orders are rarely fake—only about one in ten orders is a false order. So basically, if you use the right position size, you can resonate with large orders, and it can filter out fake candlesticks (high volume with high price), verify the authenticity of current breakouts, the strength and intensity, and intuitively judge whether resistance is strong or weak. But in practice, this kind of trading is mostly swing scalping, because price-dense trading zones are often where the main order flow is concentrated.
The downside goes without saying. For example, a few days ago, during the strong short squeeze in BTC and ETH, when resistance levels were completely ineffective, order flow often faced strict losses (if stop losses were not executed in time), or black swan events could cause order flow trades to lose more than they win in ten trades.
In fact, this method indirectly tests whether a trader can achieve strong unity of knowledge and action, with strict take-profit and stop-loss discipline. I hope my sharing helps your trading. Thank you!
$BTC $ETH $LAB #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 A recent set of market correlation changes is worth noting. Recent data shows that the degree of linkage between BTC and Nasdaq is declining, while synchronization with gold has increased; In contrast, $ETH still maintains a strong correlation with tech stocks, with no obvious decoupling visible for now. This means institutions' positioning of these two assets may be gradually diverging: 🟠 $BTC increasingly resembling the role of "digital gold" and macro hedge assets. As market funds seek inflation protection, currency depreciation hedges, or assets independent of traditional stock markets, BTC's allocation logic is strengthening. 🔵 $ETH currently remains closer to growth risk assets. Changes in tech stocks, liquidity, and risk appetite still easily transmit capital flows directly to ETH. Recently, there is another noteworthy signal: BTC spot ETFs saw about $3.3 billion in net inflows in August, and institutional demand remains resilient; Meanwhile, ETH ETF funds are relatively active, indicating institutions have not abandoned crypto assets but are simply repricing different assets. ⚠️ But the most easily misunderstood point here is: correlation changes≠ BTC can temporarily escape interest rate impact. Whether gold or BTC, risk assets come under pressure when US Treasury yields rise rapidly and dollar liquidity tightens. Therefore, the market needs to distinguish between two time dimensions: Long-term: US debt expansion, currency dilution, and institutional allocation demand, which may continue to strengthen BTC's "digital gold."$SKR single day +111.79%, 7 days +251%. The real signal is hidden in the sequence, not in the price increase.
It had been consolidating between 0.0069 and 0.0085 for the past two weeks. The turning point was the volume: one day the volume expanded to eight times that of the previous day, yet the closing price that day still fell. Capital moved two days earlier than the price; this kind of volume-price divergence usually means someone is accumulating at a low level.
Now the funding rates on three major mainstream contract platforms are all negative, ranging from -0.31% to -0.37% — even after doubling, some still insist on shorting, paying fees to the longs every day. This is the fuel for a short squeeze.
Looking at the risks from the opposite side is equally clear: contract trading volume is 3.1 times that of spot; the price support comes from leverage, not buying demand; circulating supply is 65.9%, with one-third of supply still unreleased; it is still -51% from the historical high, with a batch of trapped chips above. The moment the funding rate turns positive, the direction of leverage will reverse.The U.S. military bombed Iran, and Bitcoin fell below $77,000.
In the early hours, another incident occurred in the Middle East.
The U.S. military conducted airstrikes on two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile strikes, once again heightening tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the textbook script:
War escalation → Risk aversion intensifies → Gold rises, BTC rises, crude oil rises.
Three arrows shot together.
But this time, the market simply didn't follow the script.
WTI crude oil opened nearly 2% higher, and Brent crude regained the $90 mark.
Gold, on the other hand, weakened;
$BTC falls below $77,000;
$ETH fell below $2400;
The liquidation of long positions further amplified the decline.
Why?
Because the market is now trading more than just "safe-haven" assets.
Rather:
Escalation of war → Rising oil prices → Inflationary pressures resurface → Cooling expectations for rate cuts → Tightening liquidity → BTC and gold under pressure.
So today, the strongest safe-haven asset is actually crude oil.
This is also the most alarming aspect:
War does not necessarily benefit BTC.
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate and oil prices keep rising, BTC may face continued pressure in the short term.
77,000 is not an ordinary integer threshold.
Hold on, there will be a rebound.
If it can't hold, the next stop will be around 75,000.
Don't rush to buy the dip now.
First, let's see if the pot in the Middle East will continue to boil. #BTC is experiencing high volatility, with increased linkage to gold. #U.S.-Iran military tensions escalate, raising the risk of crude oil supply disruptions.
Wait for the whales to liquidate, wait for the panic selling to flood out, wait for ETH to drop to 2200.
It seems like there are negative factors everywhere, yet none of them can bring the market down. Haven't you noticed something is off?
A stock that cannot be driven down by negative news is one that is destined to rise.
$BTC
$SOL #Iran claims strait remains closedAccount Position Divergence Radar
First, separate the camp alignment and betting; new information only arises when the account direction and the top positions are inconsistent.
$BEAT account direction is biased long, while the top position direction is biased short; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. The price-position combination falls into increased short positions, with downside accompanied by exposure expansion, but it still depends on whether the price continues to break lower. The account side is already biased long; next, it depends on whether the top positions are willing to concentrate weight on the same side.
$DOGE more accounts are biased long, but the top position weight is biased short; the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. The rise did not bring position expansion; short-term correction is valid, but there is insufficient evidence for new trend positions. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing toward the long side.
$SUI account numbers and position weights each have biases; looking at either long-short ratio alone easily misses the other half. Price is rising while open interest is falling, currently driven by position reduction, so it should not be directly interpreted as new long entries. For now, only disagreement can be confirmed; trading direction still requires a second layer of evidence from positions and price.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
After Wash's speech, where will the market go? What opportunities do we have?
Once Wash spoke, many people's expectations for rate cuts vanished. The rate cut dreams from the Powell era, frankly, all turned into fleeting illusions.
This guy's tone was quite firm, basically saying inflation isn't falling fast enough, and the Fed could raise rates at any time. The market responded realistically; the probability of a rate hike in September surged past 50%, and sentiment immediately shifted to a tightening capital environment.
If you closely watch the US stock market, you'll find the crisis has long been written in.
The S&P 500 just broke a record high, but buying is becoming more concentrated, and the divergence between price and market breadth has hit a nearly 30-year record.
The funniest part is those who blindly chased AI hype; before, even pigs could fly, but now with a slight cooldown, many have ridden an extremely thrilling roller coaster on hardware stocks—the unrealized gains didn't get realized in time and were quickly given back.
Everyone is asking, with the one-way rally over, what exactly will make money next?
Think about it, in this kind of high-level volatility, the worst thing is to put all your chips in one direction. Recently, I talked with some traders, and they brought up Brown's old-fashioned "permanent portfolio" again.
The logic behind it is extremely simple: allocate a quarter each to stocks, long-term bonds, Bitcoin, and cash, then periodically rebalance.
The best part of this mechanism is that it forces you to buy high and sell low by design: when assets skyrocket, you sell some; when they crash, you buy the dip to replenish. As interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit! $BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why: 1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $920 million, following nine consecutive trading days of inflows, resulting in a substantial cumulative scale. After a rapid rebound, daily capital inflows began to cool down.
At the same time, futures open interest calculated in coin terms dropped by about 11%, with no significant buildup of leveraged long positions. The ETF average cost is around 84k, which exactly matches the daily resistance zone; the closer the price gets, the greater the selling pressure.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance tested Jackson Hole Wash sends a strong hawkish signal: if inflation cannot fall back to 2%, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Employment data is the most core reference indicator for the Fed to judge the economy and inflation trends. The upcoming batch of employment reports will directly determine the market's pricing of September rates.
Three data scenarios and their market outcomes
1️⃣ Employment data significantly strong (hot employment)
Economy overheats, inflation decline hindered, market further bets on rate hikes.
👉 US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens; gold, US tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies face downward pressure.
2️⃣ Employment data moderately declines (as expected)
Economy cools slowly, inflation pressure eases, probability of maintaining current rates increases.
👉 Market fluctuates with bulls and bears battling, no short-term one-sided big trend.
3️⃣ Employment data significantly weak (cold employment)
Economy clearly cools, rate hike expectations quickly cool down, rate cut expectations rise again.
👉 Dollar weakens, yields fall, risk assets (US stocks, BTC, gold) rebound and recover.
Key points for trading
Currently, market rate hike expectations are stuck at the critical range of 57%–60%. Once employment data deviates from expectations, market volatility will be amplified. Before the data release, the market will likely be cautiously volatile; after the data is published, a short-term direction will be chosen. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP The US-Iran conflict has reignited. After the US attacked Iranian missile facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran launched a retaliation. Brent crude oil has surged past $90 again, while US stock futures weakened simultaneously.
The most direct trading focus remains crude oil. I am bullish on WTI but will not chase near $90. Watch for a pullback support around $83.5–$84.5, with a stop loss below $82 and a first target at $88; if the situation escalates further, then look above $90. US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risk heats up
Brent crude oil has returned above $90, with US-Iran clashes in the Strait of Hormuz directly threatening the transportation lifeline of one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil. The US expanding sanctions combined with a fourfold jump in tanker insurance premiums are turning geopolitical conflicts into irreversible supply chain inflation.
Every $10 increase in crude oil prices injects about 0.3% imported inflation pressure into the core CPI at a very high speed, directly shattering market optimism for the start of an easing cycle within the year and forcing the Federal Reserve to remain in a tightening phase for an additional quarter.
In the short term, traditional hedge funds will sell Bitcoin first as an all-weather liquidity asset to cope with soaring US Treasury yields and liquidity withdrawal from the stock market; but over the longer term, Middle East conflicts and military spending expansion will completely break through the US trillion-dollar fiscal deficit, accelerating the structural depreciation of fiat currency purchasing power. Short-term crashes are liquidity shocks, while the long term strengthens consensus on hard assets under sovereign credit overdraft. Every panic pit triggered by crude oil is precisely a golden window for large funds to accumulate chips at low cost.
Crude oil standing above $90 revives inflation fears. Facing macro shocks brought by commodities, is your current strategy to accumulate Bitcoin in batches on dips, or to hold stablecoins tightly and wait for the situation to clarify?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 On September 4th, the US non-farm payroll data is about to be released
Everyone remember to pay attention to two data points:
US August Unemployment Rate
Previous: 4.1%
Expected: 4.1%
August Non-Farm Payrolls
Previous: -23,000
Expected: +58,000
July employment data was already significantly below expectations, so this August non-farm payroll is very critical.
If non-farm payrolls continue to be below expectations, it indicates further cooling of the US job market, and the market may reinforce easing expectations;
If non-farm payrolls are significantly above expectations, it may push interest rate expectations higher again, causing large fluctuations in the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets.
For Friday's non-farm payroll, focus on the actual value vs the expected value. In 2012, the bull market recovery period ended, and the last drop saw the index drop below 60%. In 2016, the same scenario saw the index drop below 60%. In 2019, the last drop before the main rally saw the indicator drop below 55%. The 312 black swan doesn't count. In 2023, it was the same again. The indicator dropped below 55% at its lowest point. Every time, after a washout, it shakes out all those who were unsettled, and then the main rally begins. At this current level, if historical patterns persist, this correction might not be over yet. But every time this threshold is broken, it follows a major rally. History repeats itself. But don't just look for a sword on the boat—knowing the direction is enough. Don't expect to hit the lowest point precisely $BTC. $ETH #就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being tested. #BTC高位震荡, strengthening synergy with gold. #财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again BTC is holding near highs after breaking $80K as flows remain divided. U.S. spot ETFs see net inflows, while profit-taking, options hedging and leveraged shorts rise alongside large onchain longs. Grayscale shows BTC's 90-day gold correlation rose from near zero at year-start to over 50%, while its Nasdaq 100 correlation fell to ~33%. The issue is whether BTC is shifting from a tech-risk trade to a debasement hedge. Higher rates and deleveraging could still dominate if the link proves temporary.For ZKC at this position, no need to look at the news; the order book already explains the situation. Below the current price of 0.0574, there are three consecutive large buy orders of a thousand lots each buried between 0.0568 and 0.0570, with a very low cancellation rate—this is not how retail traders place orders. There was just an on-chain transfer of ZKC from a cold wallet to an exchange; the amount is not large but it exactly matches the sell one price, clearly creating a false selling pressure illusion. The sell orders at 0.0582 above look thick, but in actual trades, the proportion of aggressive takers is rising; after the short sell orders are consumed, no replenishment occurs.
I just parked the car at the old community entrance, and my phone popped up with order alerts again, so I muted it and kept watching. I'm very familiar with this structure; it's just washing out floating chips. Once the buy orders below are noticed by the market, short sellers will enter, then there will be a rebound. So I don't chase shorts.
On OKX, you can directly go long near the current price of 0.0574, add a position on a pullback to 0.0568, and set a stop loss at 0.0557. If the buy order zone breaks, it's a false support. Take profit first targets 0.0598; if it breaks through, keep half the position and watch for 0.0615. Keep your position size light; admit mistakes if wrong.
$ZKC
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年
@OKX星球 just bought $MACRODUCK at $1.9m mcap.
andrea (ex tesla optimus, now foundation robotics) posted $macroduck and opened an ama. that is the chapter i was waiting for. this already ran to 7m and dumped to ~400k. i am buying the bounce around 880k with him on the mic, not chasing the wick. stop is the flip 1.6 atr (~30%). if the space is fake or the bounce dies, i am wrong. if he stays the face, first bank is a double (~1.76m) and a #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults This week (August 31–September 4) is the "super week" for U.S. employment data:
- Tuesday (9/1): JOLTS job openings, construction spending
- Wednesday (9/2): ADP "small nonfarm" employment, factory orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book
- Thursday (9/3): initial jobless claims, trade balance, speech by Fed Governor Waller
- Friday (9/4): August nonfarm payroll report, the highlight of the week
The logic chain is clear: this series of data collectively determines the market's pricing of a September FOMC rate cut. The market already expects easing; if nonfarm payrolls weaken and ADP and initial claims also show softness, rate cut expectations will rise, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to fall, which is tailwind for high-risk assets like crypto. Conversely, if employment surprises on the strong side, rate cut expectations will retreat, and the crypto market will likely face a wave of selling first.
Putting it all together, my judgment is: before Friday's nonfarm report, Dogecoin will likely oscillate at a high level between 0.080 and 0.093, with funds reluctant to take heavy positions before the data release. If the nonfarm data is weak and confirms rate cut expectations, $DOGE is expected to leverage this momentum to attack 0.093, and if it holds, target the 0.10 round number; if the data is strong, it may pull back to 0.080 or even test the 50-day moving average near 0.073. Considering that August has already seen a rise of over 20%, there are many short-term profit takers, so even with favorable macro conditions, the rhythm is more likely to be "rally—divergence—further rise." #EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, Wash's policy stance under scrutinyIn this bull market, I am becoming increasingly skeptical about the "altcoin season."
In previous bull markets, everyone was waiting for a signal:
Bitcoin rises → ETH follows → altcoins collectively take off.
But this time, I think the situation may have changed.
The funds in the market now face more and more new competitors:
① Bitcoin — institutional allocation, ETFs, global capital
② Tokenized US stocks — stocks, funds, and other assets on-chain
③ RWA — real-world assets like government bonds and credit assets on-chain
④ Stablecoins — increasingly acting like on-chain dollar infrastructure
Looking at many small-cap tokens:
Small market cap, poor liquidity, limited real use cases, and severe project homogeneity.
So I increasingly feel:
This cycle may not replicate the "altcoins all flying" phenomenon of 2021.
In the future, the assets that truly have a chance to survive may not be the smaller coins that are easier to rise, but those that genuinely have users, cash flow, network effects, and liquidity.
Therefore, my approach is getting simpler:
Hold core assets, prioritize certainty; small coins can be speculative, but don’t put all your hopes on an "altcoin season."
What do you think?
Will we see a comprehensive altcoin explosion like in 2021 this cycle?
I’m putting my view here first and waiting for the market to validate it.On Robinhood Chain, the derivatives leverage of Pons Launchpad and nearly 30% token burn are intertwining within the spot pool to create a new liquidity game.
$PONS just launched up to 3x leverage contracts on Ave.ai, and the introduction of derivative tools is beginning to inject amplified long and short capital into the spot market.
The platform has achieved a cumulative trading volume exceeding $2.85 billion within one month of launch, with 80% of protocol fees used to repurchase and burn 290 million tokens, accounting for 29% of the initial supply.
The circulating spot supply continues to shrink due to the high burn ratio. At this time, the entry of leveraged funds makes the originally stable supply-demand balance more susceptible to disruption by small-scale buy and sell orders.
If the ecosystem's trading volume remains high and continues to push up daily dividends, ongoing spot repurchases will support the liquidity demand brought by leveraged longs, driving the price into a supply-demand tightening channel.
If the platform's trading heat experiences a phased decline, the sharp drop in repurchase buying combined with forced liquidation of 3x leverage positions may trigger one-sided liquidity exhaustion and price spikes.
When the daily trading share falls below the normal range and the repurchase pace significantly slows, the existing deflationary premium logic will directly fail.
The core observation point for the coming week is whether the spot depth can withstand the instantaneous turnover pressure brought by leverage during the rising phase of derivative positions.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 #Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开Brothers, I just saw the on-chain data, Metaplanet deposited another 2,400 $BTC to Coinbase Prime, worth $186 million. Adding the deposits from the past two days, a total of 7,750 BTC has been moved in these three days, which is not a small amount!
Conclusion first: This is very likely not a liquidation or a run, but more like collateralized financing.
Many people think that depositing coins to an exchange means dumping, but Coinbase Prime is not an exchange for retail investors. This platform mainly serves institutions, handling custody, trading, financing, and collateralized lending. Depositing does not mean selling; it is more likely using BTC as collateral to borrow money or engage in derivatives operations.
Consider the background—on August 12, Metaplanet had an unrealized loss of $1.4 billion, a 34% drop. At that time, the price was stuck at over $60,000 without moving. Now that the price has rebounded, they start transferring frequently? The timing is very intriguing. It doesn’t make sense to run when the unrealized loss was at its worst but only start now. It looks more like they are using BTC as collateral for financing to ease cash flow pressure after the price recovery.
And it’s not just Metaplanet doing this. MARA, Grayscale, and BlackRock have also recently been depositing BTC to Coinbase Prime. Institutional-level BTC liquidity is shifting from "open market trading" to "lending and derivatives collateral." On-chain transfers no longer impact prices as directly as before.CORE: From 2U down to 0.02, my "zeroing out" blood and tears story 💔
Stop believing in nonsense like "Satoshi Nakamoto concept" or "BTC fork"! Looking at the CORE candlestick in my account, I really want to slap myself. 👋
📉 Data doesn't lie:
The highest point was over 2U, and now? 0.0216U.
This isn't a pullback, it's an amputation right after an ankle cut!
A 99% drop
💔 What's the most frustrating?
It gives you a little hope every day, then the next day a big bearish candle smashes through your psychological defense.
The so-called "ecosystem construction" and "mainnet upgrade" are all just empty promises!
The whales have sold out cleanly, leaving a bunch of retail investors pecking at each other in the 0.02 mud.
🛑 My blood and tears lesson:
1. Stay away from "strong whale coins": These coins with highly concentrated chips rise and fall entirely based on the whales' mood; retail investors are just lambs to the slaughter.
2. Don't believe in "faith": Faith is worthless in the face of absolute selling pressure.
3. Cut losses early: If you don't leave after breaking key levels, you'll end up as a sacrifice.
If you still hold CORE, take my advice: Run quickly on the rebound, take whatever you can get!
Don't think about breaking even; exchange the remaining money into BTC, ETH, or SOL. Even if it's slower, at least you can sleep well. 😴
Are there any brothers also trapped by CORE? Cry together in the comments 👇#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $CORE basically 0 leverage built up on latest BTC rally, price driven by etf buyers and short squeezes
wouldnt be surprised if it just happens again this week#
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#BroadcomDellAIResults $IBIT is powering the majority of fresh BTC ETF demand, meaning any slowdown in new fund creations could weaken Bitcoin’s bullish setup. ⚠️
IBIT contributed 79.8% of the $2.84B rebound, while the remaining ETFs saw $13.8M in combined net outflows.
More importantly, $BTC still fell 0.6% despite $924.5M in ETF inflows — a reminder that strong ETF demand alone doesn’t guarantee higher prices. 👀
#BTC #IBIT #Bitcoin #Crypto $BTC Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance put to the test
After Jackson Hole, Wash signaled a hawkish bias, placing inflation as the top priority in policy decisions. The upcoming series of intensive employment data releases will directly test whether this stance can hold firm. The market previously tended to weaken rate hike expectations directly when employment weakened, but Wash has readjusted the weighting. Currently, employment is only a supplementary reference; only a substantial deterioration in the labor market can constrain rate hikes.
At this stage, U.S. employment shows a "no hiring, no firing" characteristic. Companies have stopped large-scale hiring but have not engaged in mass layoffs, so overall resilience remains. If non-farm payrolls, job vacancies, and wage data continue to remain strong, the pricing for a September rate hike will rise further, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to climb, and risk assets will come under pressure. Conversely, if employment indicators collectively cool down, it will falsify hawkish statements and quickly cool rate hike expectations.
It should be noted that even if employment cools, as long as inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will not immediately shift to easing. Every time data exceeds or falls short of expectations, it will drive synchronized repricing of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and crypto assets. Market volatility will significantly increase, so it is not advisable to bet on a single outcome prematurely; wait for the data to be released. 1. Technical Aspect - Anti-Quantum Narrative: The BIP-360 anti-quantum proposal is advancing, introducing the P2MR output type through a soft fork to reduce public key exposure on the chain, lowering the risk of quantum computing attacks, addressing Bitcoin's long-term security shortcomings, boosting institutional cold storage confidence, and solidifying the foundational narrative of digital gold.
2. Policy Aspect - U.S. Election Narrative: The Trump camp is vying for votes within the crypto community, actively promoting crypto-related legislation, advocating for a clear regulatory framework, proposing the concept of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, with industry expectations for further improvements in spot ETF and institutional access environments, creating potential policy premium upside.
3. Dual Catalytic Resonance: Technical solutions alleviate long-term security concerns, election competition brings institutional positive expectations, the technical narrative combined with the political narrative enhances market capital risk appetite.
$BTC AI and crypto are truly coming together in payments. On August 27, Han Xinyi, CEO of Ant Group and Chairman of Alipay, summarized the current global exploration of AI Agent payments at the China Payment and Clearing Forum into four main routes: payment infrastructure platforms like Stripe; stablecoin and crypto routes represented by Circle and Coinbase; traditional card organizations like Visa and Mastercard; and AI platforms like Google and OpenAI. It should be clarified first: this does not mean Alipay will issue stablecoins. What is truly worth watching is that Alipay's leadership has officially included stablecoins and crypto on the global AI payment competition roadmap. First, stablecoins are suitable precisely for machine-to-machine payments When people buy things, they can swipe cards, scan codes, and enter passwords. But in the future, AI Agents may call services themselves, purchase data themselves, pay per use, and even handle thousands or tens of thousands of small transactions a day. Circle and Coinbase are now betting on stablecoins—programmable, all-day payment methods that can be directly settled machine-to-machine. Circle itself is clearly pushing USDC toward payment infrastructure for the agent economy. 2. True competition is no longer about "who has more payment tools," but who can become the AI wallet. Previously, payment competition centered on whether users used Alipay, credit cards, or other wallets. But AIAnthropic IPO new progress, the most worth watching is not how exaggerated the valuation is, but how much truth the prospectus dares to reveal
The primary market can talk about model capabilities, enterprise clients, and future potential. The public market is not so easy to please; it will scrutinize revenue structure, computing power costs, loss rhythm, client concentration, and will also watch every cloud vendor cooperation deal to see if it is revenue or just exchanged for binding
What I most look forward to in AI companies going public is this: finally being able to see how heavy the business behind the “smart model” really is. Training is expensive, inference is also expensive, talent is even more expensive. If every round of capability improvement requires burning more money, the valuation story cannot rely solely on the four words “huge future”
There is already enough faith in AI, what is now lacking is the accounts
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
This week is the real drama.
Starting today, employment data will be released for four consecutive days—Wednesday JOLTS job openings, Thursday ADP and initial jobless claims, Friday August nonfarm payrolls. These four reports will directly determine whether there will be a rate hike in September.
Last month's nonfarm payrolls did something rare—it turned negative directly.
On one side is "weaker employment," on the other is "inflation is not over yet," two forces are clashing.
So the core question this week is just one—how weak is the employment data, and can it bring Wash's hawkish face back a bit.
For the crypto circle, the script this week is very clear. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken, or even show consecutive negative growth, rate hike expectations will be smashed down again, and Bitcoin has a chance to rise again around the 80,000 level. If nonfarm suddenly rebounds and employment remains strong, Wash will be more confident, the probability of rate hikes will continue to rise, US Treasury yields will rebound, and risk assets will take a hit in the short term.
My own view is that the data this week is unlikely to be one-sided—employment is cooling down, which is a fact, but not enough to make the Federal Reserve pivot. The best market script is "weak employment but not collapsing," allowing rate cut expectations to gradually build, rather than suddenly triggering recession panic.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH The reason for the simultaneous drop in all coins has been found.
As expected, Trump is behind it again.
This time it's not the Middle East, but a sudden increase in digital taxes on Europe, causing a global plunge in risk assets. However, Bitcoin held firm, quickly bouncing back from 78,000 down to 76,500, indicating real money is buying at the bottom. Such a level of policy bearishness didn't create a deep pit; the chip structure is more solid than expected.
Ethereum is much weaker, breaking 2,500 directly, with 2,400 hanging by a thread. The valuation propped up by ETF funds last year is now being squeezed out bit by bit. Without new stories, faith can't support the price.
I'm still bullish on the crypto space; what’s really worth watching are the upcoming crypto bills and stablecoin regulations. Once the compliance gates open and incremental funds enter, the market will turn around immediately; the current struggles are just the prelude.
The three storage giants were mistakenly sold off along with the market; Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron just rebounded but were knocked down again. But the underlying logic of AI storage hasn't changed; HBM is still in short supply. The short-term valuation cuts don't change the long-term tight supply and demand. This sharp drop is just a pullback to pick up buyers, though it's a bit harsh.
SPCX remains resilient this time, holding steady around 141. The sector positioning is good; the valuation is high but justified. I'll be closely watching around 155; a breakout with volume will be a buy, and 200 is not a dream.
#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
#Employment data densely released, Walsh's policy stance tested Family, the reason for the simultaneous drop of all coins has been found.
As expected, Trump is at it again.
This time it's not the Middle East, but a sudden increase in digital taxes on Europe, causing a global plunge in risk assets. But Bitcoin held firm; it dropped from 78000 to 76500 and quickly bounced back, indicating real money is buying at the bottom. Such a level of policy negative news didn't create a deep pit, showing the chip structure is more solid than expected.
Ethereum is much weaker, losing 2500 directly, and 2400 is also precarious. The valuation propped up by ETF funds last year is now being squeezed out bit by bit. Without new stories, faith can't support the price.
I'm still bullish on the crypto space; what’s really worth watching are the upcoming crypto bills and stablecoin regulations landing. Once the compliance gates open and incremental funds enter, the market will turn around directly; what we're seeing now is just the prelude.
The three storage giants were mistakenly hit along with the market; Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron just rebounded and were knocked down again. But the underlying logic of AI storage hasn't changed, HBM is still in short supply, and short-term valuation cuts don't change the long-term supply-demand tightness. This sharp drop is just a pullback to pick up buyers, just a bit harsh.
SPCX remains firm this time, holding steady around 141. Good positioning in the sector, valuation is high but justified. I'll focus on around 155; if it breaks out with volume, I'll add, 200 is not a dream.
#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
#Employment data densely released, Walsh's policy stance tested 8.31 Second Bitcoin Dodan fulfilled as scheduled
$ETH pre-market strategy: scale in long positions between 2380-2400, stop loss at 2350, target range 2460-2520
During the session, when the price dropped to 2402, a real-time entry alert was given, precisely hitting the upper edge of the support range; current price reached 2444, prompting to reduce position by half, locking in 40+ points profit, with the remaining position held to play for the target
The range forecast was precise and on point, entry and profit-taking tracked throughout, pullbacks are always buying opportunities, trading rhythm is always one step ahead
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 2026.8.31: $BTC ~ Stablecoins ~ U.S. Treasury bonds, oil ~ Iran ~ U.S. dollar! Bitcoin corresponds to the stablecoin supply; when stablecoins increase, U.S. Treasury bonds are purchased. Why pick a fight with Iran again today? It's still about the U.S. dollar. Once there is turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, oil-importing countries will massively stockpile oil, which requires more U.S. dollars. Therefore, the U.S. will not let Iran be at peace, but will periodically create some tension with a rhythm, followed by sensitive reactions in oil prices. Similarly, behind stablecoins are U.S. Treasury bonds, so the virtual currency market capitalization needs to grow. When panic increases, $BTC rises. Record the planet! Record real trading!Triple Logic Behind August's Surge
August's surge was no accident but the result of a resonance of three forces:
1. Return of the "Dollar Devaluation Trade": The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, lowering long bond yields and weakening the dollar, driving funds into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin for hedging.
2. The Largest Short Squeeze in History: Around August 19, roughly billions of dollars in short positions across the market were forcibly liquidated, triggering a chain reaction of "short covering → price push → more liquidations."
3. Record ETF Inflows: ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion in August, signaling a strong return of institutional buying. $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Fundamental Research Report $WLD / Worldcoin (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Worldcoin ($WLD) overall score 60/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture has been realized.
Worldcoin (token $WLD), AI/computing power sector. Main focus: Sam Altman identity + AI. Comparable to FET, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000–$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers require no centralized approval; idle GPUs become available supply. Customer unit price $50–$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60–80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found; 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed; supplier income about 80–90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income $2.00M; token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit; protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings; technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000; circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%); FDV $4.20B; next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation); annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Worldcoin $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Worldcoin $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Worldcoin $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Worldcoin undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50–70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects.
Summary: fundamentals solid (score 60/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information source public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitETH has climbed back above $2,400, but don’t rush to call it a catch-up rally just yet. My view is that this level feels more like a crossroads for direction rather than a fully charged state ready to take off at any moment.
Why do I say that? Looking only at the USD price, ETH surged from below 1,900 this week, a pretty fierce rally. But if you look at it from another angle—its ratio against Bitcoin—it’s not so optimistic. ETH/BTC has been steadily declining since early 2025, weakening for over a year until it bottomed out in June this year. In the past two months, it has rebounded over 20% and even formed a golden cross. Sounds good, right? The problem is that historically, this ratio’s golden crosses have often failed—sometimes it rose 30% afterward, sometimes it crashed immediately. This signal is at best a reference, not a decree.
So what’s the current situation? The USD price is running fast, the ratio is just starting to rise, indicating some capital is testing the waters—ETFs continue to see net inflows, and staking yields are becoming attractive again amid expectations of falling interest rates—but big money hasn’t truly shifted from Bitcoin yet. To confirm a buildup, we need to see ETH/BTC volume-backed stabilization, not just a one-legged USD price surge.
In short: Around $2,400 for ETH, the catch-up rally story has already been told by some, but the direction’s exam paper hasn’t been handed in yet. Watch the ratio, not just the price.🔥 Marvell just beat expectations — but Broadcom still looks like the cleaner AI winner.
$MRVL delivered a strong quarter, with Q2 revenue hitting $2.739B, up 37% YoY, while Data Center revenue jumped 46%. Even better, Q3 revenue was guided to around $3.15B ±5%.
But there’s a catch. 👀
Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 58.9%, with next quarter guided down to 57.5%–58.5%. The custom AI ramp is clearly gaining traction, but the growth is also bringing some margin pressure.
#DailyOrbit Solana stablecoins surge to $16.4 billion, can SOL really benefit from this money?
Let's first pour some cold water: more stablecoins do not equal a rise in SOL. The $16.4 billion figure sounds intimidating, but if the money just sits in wallets without moving, it has no impact on SOL's price. What really matters is where this money flows.
If stablecoins just cross chains and sit idle, they are merely passersby, and Solana only earns a bit of settlement fees. But if the funds flow into lending markets, DEX liquidity pools, payment scenarios, or even become the settlement layer for RWA assets, then the nature completely changes—every swap, every collateralization, every liquidation consumes $SOL as fees, and on-chain activity directly boosts staking demand and validator income. This is the full chain of liquidity transmission to the token price.
On the positive side, Solana stablecoins already account for 10% of the global share, and RWA has a scale of $2.8 billion, indicating the ecosystem is indeed moving towards "usage" rather than just hoarding tokens. Plus, another $500 million USDC was minted in June, so incremental funds are still entering.
So the conclusion is simple: the positive outlook is real, but realization takes time. Monitoring changes in DeFi locked value and DEX trading volume is far more useful than just watching stablecoin totals. Money moves, SOL has a chance; money doesn't move, no matter how impressive the numbers look, it's just a paper prosperity.basically 0 leverage built up on latest BTC rally, price driven by etf buyers and short squeezes
wouldnt be surprised if it just happens again this week
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#BroadcomDellAIResults HYPE whales start cashing out, over $20 million worth of spot continuously sold
The HYPE spot whale starting with 0x0a84 began continuous position reduction today. From 9:49 to 13:49 Beijing time, it sold a total of 11,113 HYPE, with a transaction amount of about $893,200 and an average transaction price of about $80.37.
Within nearly half an hour, this address sold another 1,588.95 HYPE, with a transaction amount of about $128,400. The latest sale occurred at 13:49, and since then, there has been a sell order of 26.14 HYPE spot at $81.055, indicating the position reduction has not completely stopped. The total realized profit from the above completed sales is about $429,700, with fees around $221.
As of the time of writing, this address still holds 247,555.22 HYPE, valued at about $20,059,000, with the remaining spot size about 22 times the amount sold in this 4-hour round.