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This round of surge hasn't made me go long; instead, it has made me more convinced that Bitcoin still has one last drop, and it's going to be a waterfall-level crash. Why? Because the real bottom is never called out by good news. Trump calling trades, Bassett rescuing the market, one piece of news after another, and the market did rally indeed. But think carefully—if the US really hoarded a large amount of Bitcoin, why wouldn't they buy quietly? Why make a big show of telling you? If doubling US debt repurchase could really solve liquidity issues, why didn't the US stock market go crazy along with it? The more urgent the good news, the more it seems like a cover-up for something. This violent surge directly blew out the shorts and forced all the sidelined watchers into the market. Those who should buy have bought, those who should chase have chased, the bulls have fired all their bullets, and what's left are people holding chips waiting to sell. And these people are precisely the source of the most panic selling pressure in the future downturn. Looking at the structure again, this kind of sharp rise is usually not a characteristic of a healthy bull market. The real bottom is ground out; it is when no one cares, no one talks about it, and all the bad news has been exhausted, leading to a natural stabilization. It is not a V-shaped reversal triggered by a few tweets or policy announcements. After a sharp rise, there is often a sharp fall. The scenario I see is: this short squeeze pushes the price to a high level, then distributes sideways at the top, waiting for the retail investors to take the last baton, and then a big bearish candle breaks through all supports. If 60,000 can't hold, 50,000 is only psychological comfort; the real target is in the 40,000 range. The last drop is not a drop in price, but a drop in faith. When everyone thinks "this time is different," the market will tell you in the most brutal way The 401(k) channel is open, and the narrative of BTC as a “pension allocation” has just begun
Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrency, an impact that many have underestimated. The 401(k) is the largest retirement savings channel in the United States, covering tens of millions of workers, with assets under management measured in trillions of dollars. Even if only a very small portion of funds flow into BTC through this channel, its scale is enough to change the market’s capital structure.
More importantly, there is the “inertia” of the channel—401(k) funds are characterized by regular contributions, long-term holding, and low portfolio turnover. Once an asset is included in the 401(k) investment menu, it enters a “passive allocation” track, generating continuous buying pressure with every paycheck. This kind of capital is not like ETF flows that “come in today and go out tomorrow,” but a truly long-term locked-in position. BTC is transitioning from an “asset for speculators’ games” to a “standard holding in ordinary people’s retirement accounts.” ETH has not yet gained a similar retirement account channel—the 401(k) allocation logic favors “simple, understandable, and low-controversy” assets, and ETH’s complexity currently does not meet this standard. But this precisely means that when ETH’s institutionalization advances further and staking yields are incorporated into a compliant framework, it will also have the opportunity to enter a similar long-term allocation channel. The opening of the 401(k) channel marks BTC’s institutionalization entering the “second stage”—from institutional allocation to mass allocation. This narrative has only just begun. BTC stands at 69,494, approaching the short-term holder cost line: Why this rebound is different from before
💡 Bullish: If the key on-chain cost level is reclaimed, panic selling will significantly decrease, and the selling pressure structure will improve.
BTC rebounded to $69,494 (24h +7.89%), approaching the average cost line of short-term holders, which is a key position to judge whether the trend can turn bullish.
What's going on
There is a classic indicator in on-chain data: short-term holder cost basis (STH cost basis), which is the average holding cost of people who bought within the last 155 days. When the price is below this line, the short-term holding group is in a trapped state, and any rebound will face selling pressure from those trying to break even; when the price stands above it, this group turns from loss to profit, and the motivation for panic selling disappears, making them more inclined to hold for higher prices.
Now BTC is at $69,494, up 7.89% in 24 hours, just hitting near this cost line. ETH is even stronger at $2,259.57, up 18.26% in 24 hours, with SOL and XRP also rising around 10%, a broad market rally.
In short: The trapped holders are close to breaking even, and after breaking even, fewer want to sell, changing the selling pressure structure.
Market impact
- Short term: Whether $69,494 can hold is critical. Holding above the cost line turns short-term holders from bearish ammunition into bullish fuel, shifting sentiment from panic to reluctance to sell, and the depth of pullbacks will significantly shallow. Conversely, repeated friction below the cost line means each touch triggers break-even selling $ETH $BTC On July 31, we said that with long-term borrowing costs returning to 2008 levels, the government would definitely take action.
Today it happened. The Ministry of Finance doubled the repurchase amount to 4 billion each time, calling it "liquidity support."
What will happen next?
In the short term, this is to support the market floor, and liquidity in the government bond market will improve.
In the medium term, this paves the way for larger fiscal stimulus.
In the long term, the US dollar's credit is slowly eroding, and hard assets will become increasingly favored.
This logical chain is more important than any candlestick chart.BTC surged strongly to $70,099, with a 24-hour increase of 7.41%; ETH violently caught up, reaching a high of $2,342, with a single-day increase of over 18%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.84 billion, with shorts being heavily liquidated. Key highlights: U.S. stocks only slightly rose, while the crypto market showed an independent trend. The core driving force of this rally is incremental on-exchange funds, not driven by U.S. stock sentiment.
On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of nearly $500 million over two days, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main buyer, providing short-term support at the $70,000 level.
On the macro front, there is obvious suppression; the FOMC minutes were hawkish, with several officials maintaining rate hike expectations, and liquidity tightening risks remain.
In terms of market structure, BTC dominance rose to 58.84%. This ETH surge is mainly a catch-up rally, with $2,350 as a short-term strong resistance.
Altcoin performance is highly divergent: SOL and XRP slightly followed the rise, DOGE showed weak performance, and funds are highly concentrated in top mainstream coins, not yet broadly diffused.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs; avoid chasing above 69,000 to mitigate risk. Patiently wait for a pullback and stabilization before looking for opportunities. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 July 2022
July 1st is the labor data release. At 4 AM on July 1st, the 4-hour chart shows a significant second test + low position.
July 13th is the CPI release date. The 4-hour status at that time was also after the start on the 1st, rising until the 7th, then continuously pulling back until 4 AM on the 13th, showing an upward direction + relatively low position.
July 28th at 2 AM is the FOMC meeting.
Review summary:
The rebound pattern of BTC and ETH throughout July is obvious. Under the bear market background, before each 5-star data release, there is a significant pullback to the lowest point. Considering the continuous 70% drop in May and June, July shows a clear bear market + upward direction state. The overall operation strategy continues to be: do not break the previous low on the 4-hour level, and enter long positions at low levels. Between July 20th and July 26th, there was a significant 4-hour bearish signal, so there was no possibility to continue going long during this period, and even shorting could earn a few points. Until the strategic force appeared on July 27th, the 6-day 4-hour bearish signals were completely nullified, and a new battle plan could be formulated.
Special note: July saw 3 waves of 6-day rebounds with strong momentum. Each rebound started around the 5-star data release (within 12 hours). It shows that mature trading has typical characteristics rather than frequent trading. $ETH ETF funds are starting to fluctuate again. Between $BTC and $ETH, which one looks more like the main storyline?
The market has been very interesting lately.
Everyone says they are looking at the long term, but their eyes are honest, watching the ETF fund flows every day.
One moment they say money is flowing back into BTC, the next they say ETH is being neglected. It feels like choosing a class president in school—everyone says they care about ability, but in the end, it’s about who’s more popular.
BTC’s biggest advantage right now is simplicity.
When institutions want to enter the crypto market, the first thing they usually think of is BTC because it’s easy to explain: digital gold, scarce asset, inflation hedge. This narrative is understood and accepted by traditional finance.
$ETH is a bit more complicated.
It’s not that it can’t compete, but it requires others to listen to you for a few more minutes—staking, DeFi, Layer 2, on-chain ecosystem. People who understand get excited, but those who don’t might just want to ask, "So is it really a coin?"
Therefore, changes in ETF fund flows are very important.
If funds continue to favor $BTC, it means the market is still seeking stability.
If $ETH starts attracting money again, it means risk appetite might really be returning.
I think the heat around this topic is because it’s not just about guessing prices, but about seeing which institution’s money they actually trust.
Retail investors can shout slogans, but institutional fund flows don’t lie.
At this stage, BTC looks more like the main asset, while ETH is more like a flexible asset.
One is responsible for stabilizing the situation,
The other is responsible for creating imagination.
A real big market rally usually doesn’t just lift one; BTC opens the door first, then ETH heats up the atmosphere.The short-term outlook should be mainly positive, with the backdrop of Trump's upcoming midterm election.
First, influenced by the Treasury's accelerated buybacks and changes in long-term U.S. Treasury expectations, the yield increase is slowing down and may even decline.
Second, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September, and likely not in October either. Going forward, Feng Brother believes it won't either, due to easing CPI, declining employment, and most importantly, U.S. Treasury risks.
Third, Da Da will visit the U.S. next month; logically, friendly relations between the two countries are also positive for sentiment and expectations.
Fourth, with the midterm election approaching, there should be no extreme conflicts. The Iran-Oman Strait joint management agreement has been reached; optimistically, the strait may be passable in phases.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but there may be more than just 3 dissenting votes.
The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes were released last night, marking the fifth consecutive pause, with rates held at 3.5%-3.75%. However, the details reveal much greater internal disagreement than the vote result suggests.
The 3 dissenting votes are just the tip of the iceberg. Logan, Harker, and Kashkari voted against, advocating a 25 basis point rate hike. It doesn't end there—Schmidt and Musalem, who did not have voting rights in July, later stated that if they had voting rights, they would also have supported a rate increase.
The minutes use the word "many"—in the Fed's context, this usually refers to nearly half of the 19 policymakers. "Many" officials believe that if inflation does not continue to decline, further monetary tightening is necessary. Officials supporting a rate hike believe price pressures are "broad-based," and that failing to raise rates now could lead to "steeper and more costly consecutive tightening later."
AI was formally listed as a financial stability risk for the first time. Some officials pointed out that the high valuations of AI companies are based on very optimistic market expectations for long-term profitability; once these expectations are revised downward, it could trigger widespread asset repricing and tighter financial conditions. A few officials specifically noted that the AI industry is increasingly reliant on borrowing financing, shifting from equity markets to the credit system.
$BTC $SNDK $AXTI #US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year Treasury Yields Pull Back from Highs
The long end of the US Treasury yield curve just surged to a new high not seen since 2007 a couple of days ago, prompting the Treasury to act immediately: it announced that the liquidity buyback cap for 10- to 30-year bonds will be doubled from $2 billion per operation to "at least $4 billion" (effective from September 9 to November 4). Upon this news, the 30-year Treasury yield instantly dropped from around 5.32% high to about 5.19%.
But don’t get too excited yet; it’s important to understand the essence of this move:
This is liquidity maintenance, not money printing: The Treasury’s buyback is essentially "debt management," withdrawing old bonds with poor liquidity from the market and issuing new ones. It is fundamentally different from the Fed’s rate cuts or QE and does not inject large amounts of liquidity into the market out of thin air.
A drop in the bucket against the flood of supply: Buying an extra $2 billion each time is more like a short-term painkiller compared to the US’s debt total approaching $40 trillion and the massive issuance deficit.
The decline in long-term yields does give a bit of relief to US stocks, gold, and BTC, which have been suffocated by discount rate pressures recently. But as long as the fiscal deficit remains high and inflation is sticky, the plateau of high long-term rates is unlikely to truly end.
Do you think this Treasury intervention is a timely relief, or just a delay of a bigger liquidity crisis?
$TLT $SPX $BTC #USTreasury #Macroeconomics #Liquidity #USStocks #Cryptocurrency Brothers, my mold guy got liquidated, this time I really went down.
Didn't expect it to be so fierce in one day, it surged three to four hundred points overnight, I was completely stunned.
$ETH went straight from 1906 to 2335 in one day, up more than 20% in 24 hours.
Everyone in the group is shouting bull return, shouting to see 3000.
Over the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated more than $1.8 billion, ETH shorts were liquidated $366 million in one day, and I am one of them.
Many brothers mocked me in the comments, laughing at me with "Are you okay?" "Where are you?" "Are you alive?" I saw it, every single one.
But I, the short army, never give up, the short order is already placed.
You may laugh, but RSI has already reached 82.7, seriously overbought.
2,315-2,373 is a strong resistance zone, once it breaks below 2,153, long liquidation intensity will reach $479 million.
The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $130 million yesterday, breaking the record of five consecutive weeks of net inflows.
No matter how fierce the rise, it has an end.
I have already placed a short at 2,350, stop loss at 2,450, target first at 2,150, if broken look at 2,000. The short army cannot fall.
$BTC
$SNDK
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH Beijing time 2 AM last night: The Federal Reserve July meeting minutes released
This is not a new interest rate decision, but the text minutes of the late July policy meeting, published at 2 AM.
Key points
1. Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.50‑3.75%, but there is significant internal disagreement: 3 members directly called for a rate hike; the minutes clearly state: if inflation does not come down, further rate hikes are not ruled out, and the entire minutes barely mention any discussion about rate cuts.
2. Crucial point: The market was previously betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, but these minutes directly dampen those expectations, pushing rate cut expectations further back, with even the possibility of rate hikes, making it a hawkish minutes.
3. It also mentions caution about financial risks from an AI bubble and discusses reducing the number of policy meetings per year in the future (not yet implemented).
Crypto market reaction
• At the moment of release: the US dollar index rose slightly, US Treasury yields climbed; BTC and ETH were briefly dumped, then pulled back and fluctuated due to other news.
• Contradiction: The minutes themselves are negative for risk assets (high rates maintained longer), but during the session, positive overseas political rumors supporting crypto overlapped, so there was no one-sided big drop, but rather intense volatility with sharp spikes back and forth $BTC surged with increased volume this wave, finally producing a decent solid bullish candle on the weekly chart, which serves as a confirmation for the recent trend.
But honestly, judging a bull market reversal based on just this one bullish candle is still premature.
The biggest variable now lies with the Federal Reserve — whether the liquidity brought by the bond market repo is due to a sustained policy shift or just a temporary measure to suppress interest rates is uncertain. The longer the time passes without new catalysts, the weaker the marginal effect of this positive factor will become.
What can support the market going forward boils down to one thing: whether ETFs and major funds can continue net buying.
This is a hard indicator to watch closely in the coming days; once inflows stop, the high levels will likely become unstable.
From a trading perspective, this position is definitely not one to chase.
Lightly short around 70,000, targeting 68,000-67,500.
Markets always move forward amid hesitation and lay traps amid consensus, so let's watch as it unfolds.#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
The boss has something to say
Last night, BTC peaked at 69,888, just over 100 points short of hitting 70,000. ETH rose in sync to 2,119, with gains exceeding 8% at one point. After the short positions were liquidated, I have been out of the market; this short squeeze was indeed stronger than expected.
VanEck previously stated that multiple BTC capitulation indicators have been triggered, possibly signaling the end of the correction. Low volatility has pushed the cycle to a low point, and market participation is relatively low. This kind of structure is prone to big moves. Once there is a catalyst, short covering and leveraged liquidations happen simultaneously, directly pushing the price up.
Now BTC has pulled back to around 69,000, with a 24-hour gain still above 5%. The question is not whether it has risen, but how long it can hold. If volume and capital flow continue to support, holding steady at 68,000, the next target is the 70,000 round number. If this is just a short-covering rally, a pullback to the 65,000 to 66,000 range is also normal. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.A certain tree's fundraising is a bit shameless.
At the opening, its market value was 440 billion, which is half a BYD (about 280 billion) higher than China Duty Free (about 300 billion).
But the annual revenue of this certain tree (1.7 billion) is only three-thousandths of BYD's (about 600 billion revenue). A company with revenue only a fraction of BYD's market value wants to buy BYD plus half of China Duty Free.
This is equivalent to a bun shop downstairs in your neighborhood with an annual income of 200,000 yuan being listed at 200 million yuan, the same price as the big restaurant next door that earns tens of millions annually.
$BTC Last night BTC ETH HYPE surged explosively, driven by macro risk repair, warming policy expectations, spot buying ignition, concentrated short covering, and contract funds chasing the rally!
First, macro pressure eased. $BTC $ETH $HYPE
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, bond prices rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields fell.
This is not yet quantitative easing, but the market at least saw some bottom-supporting attitude; long-term rates temporarily stabilized, giving risk capital a reason to re-enter.
Policy expectations are also heating up.
Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and pushed again for the Clarity Act. Although the bill hasn't been enacted, it was enough for the market to reprice regulatory improvements.
What really ignited the market was BTC breaking through.
The price started above $64,000, surged to around $70,450, and the sideways structure that had lasted for weeks finally broke open. After the breakout, trend funds and wait-and-see funds began entering, and shorts were forced to cover.
Next, I am watching three levels:
BTC holds $68,000, with upside targets at $70,500–$72,000
ETH holds $2,150 to $2,200, with upside targets at $2,350–$2,500
HYPE holds $65 to $67, with upside targets at $74–$78
As long as these levels hold, short-term sentiment has a chance to continue for 24 to 72 hours. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH 8.20 Morning Ethereum Update:
Although Ethereum has broken new highs and is bullish, I still need to pour some cold water on my brothers: don't chase the highs! Don't chase the highs! Don't chase the highs!
Important things said three times: if you rush in to go long now, you might get stuck at the peak if there's a high-level pullback. The trend is bullish, but it’s not a straight line up; after a big rise, a pullback to digest gains is natural.
If you want to go long, patiently wait for a pullback. Enter again once the 220-222 range stabilizes; the cost-performance ratio is much better, and stop-losses are easier to manage.
If you really want to short, don’t stubbornly fight the trend. Only try a light short position when it clearly can’t push past 232-234, take some profit on the pullback, and exit. Don’t hold short positions waiting for a big drop.
Remember: the trend is bullish, pullbacks are opportunities, chasing highs is risky. If 234 holds, continue to be bullish; if it breaks below 220, adjust your strategy. Risk control is always the top priority. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 $PENDLE – Bullish momentum persists
$PENDLE LONG
Entry: 1.5014 – 1.5060
Stop Loss: 1.4460
TP: 1.5268 - 1.5903 - 1.6306
Plan & Logic
The chart shows a mature, strong uptrend with the price riding a confirmed continuation pattern. Price action is reacting near an important level, so risk management matters here. The setup depends on confirmation around the entry zone and follow-through after the move.
Trade $PENDLE here#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
$SKHYNIX's previous high was 1974, current price around 1200. SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback. Besides this, the chairman of SK Hynix stated that future demand for storage still exists and is optimistic about the subsequent market.
SK Hynix's buyback plan brings to mind another storage giant, $SNDK SanDisk, which also announced a $6 billion buyback plan on April 30, and then added a $14 billion buyback plan on August 5.
From SanDisk's price trend, after the buyback plans and stable AI storage demand, the price rose steadily to around $2382 before pulling back.
These two major storage giants' buyback plans and capacity expansions seem to signal confidence to the market. So, with stable or rising AI demand, the storage sector might have a chance to see a wave of gains 🤔
However, some institutions predict that storage capacity will be insufficient until early 2027, and forecast that storage prices may peak by mid-2027, due to price declines caused by companies like ChangXin Memory 🤔
As for whether SK Hynix's price movement after the buyback announcement will be similar to SanDisk's after its April buyback announcement remains to be seen. It is also related to AI demand to some extent. Please be aware of the risks!
@OKX星球 @米花Lilac_OKX The "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal clearly stipulates that for issuances relying on new exemptions, it will replace the current securities registration and qualification review requirements of each state. This preemption clause also covers certain secondary market transactions.
Previously, Web 3 projects had to deal not only with the SEC but also with the registration requirements of 50 individual states. For example, Reg A Tier 1 required registration in each state, resulting in very high compliance costs.
The establishment of federal law preemption means that qualified crypto projects only need to meet the exemption conditions at the federal level to deploy nationwide, without getting bogged down in the fragmented quagmire of state-level registrations.
For interstate operations and cross-border projects, this is a tangible benefit, significantly reducing the friction costs of compliant operations within the United States and making the U.S. a more attractive location for project registration.BTC 24-hour liquidations totaled $1.421 billion, with short positions accounting for 96.48%; However, OI still grew by 5.59%. ETH and SOL OI also grew by 11.94% and 8.71%, respectively. Short positions are being cleaned out in concentrated numbers, but new positions are still entering the market. Funding heats up simultaneously: Binance BNB's 7-day deviation rose to +2.21σ, ETH at +1.99σ; OKX SOL is +1.55σ. The trend remains strong, but the market is shifting from recovery to crowding, and the margin for error in chasing rallies is decreasing. The real conflict comes from large player positions: OKX's BTC large holder holding ratio is only 0.41, extremely bearish; Binance's is 1.50, slightly bullish. The overall active buy-sell ratio was 52.92% / 47.08%, only slightly overweight. Today's conclusion: WAIT. A strong direction does not necessarily mean entry is valid. Currently, there is a lack of confirmed pullback levels, structural stop-loss levels, and qualified P/L ratios, so a Candidate is not formed.As soon as I opened my eyes this morning, my sister said ETH surged 20 points!!
Looking at this trend, my first reaction wasn’t "I’m making a killing," but "What was this thing doing behind my back last night?" The 24-hour low was 1906, now it’s 2267, a 20% increase, with a trading volume of 758 million. It’s indeed scary, but besides the fear, I have to stay calm.
Don’t rush to call a bull run yet. $ETH jumped straight from around 1900 to 2267 with almost no pause in between. Such a rapid rise is either driven by major positive news or a chain liquidation of shorts. I checked the perpetual contract data on OKX; last night the funding rate probably multiplied several times, and short covering pushed the price all the way up—a classic short squeeze. This kind of rise comes fast and goes fast, so don’t chase at 2267. The profit margin is small and the risk of a pullback is high.
Key levels to mark:
Support: 2200-2220. If it falls back here and holds, it means bulls still have strength, and you can consider light buying.
Resistance: 2300-2320. Only if it breaks through with volume is there a chance to see higher; otherwise, it’s just an emotional top.
In terms of strategy, I personally prefer to wait for a pullback. Not chasing after a 20% rise is my iron rule—I’ve lost too many times. If you already hold, you can take partial profits in batches to lock in gains. Don’t listen to the hype in the group chat about "stars and seas." Although the trading volume of 758 million is high, compared to ETH’s total market cap, it’s not enough to support a one-sided surge; it’s mostly short-term capital behavior. My sister made a killing because she held on, but holding on also means knowing when to sell, otherwise it’s just paper wealth.
In short, today’s ETH drama looks exciting but is hard to play. Congrats to those who made money, and don’t envy if you missed the ride. Wait for a pullback confirmation; the opportunity is still there. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.After more than a month of sideways movement, the crypto market has finally broken through.
A few days ago, while the US stock market was falling, Bitcoin/Ethereum remained as strong as iron. Once they stopped following the decline, it felt like a breakout was imminent.
I thought there would be a fake drop to shake out weak hands before the breakout.
However, due to the impact of the US Treasury's expansionary policy, the dollar weakened and a large amount of capital flooded into the crypto market. Short positions got trapped, and ETH surged nearly 100 points in just over ten minutes. Luckily, I closed my shorts and went long in time, catching the second wave 😂.
ETH is really crazy—rises sharply and falls sharply too, while BTC has yet to break the critical 70000 level. Waiting for the next market momentum. Where do you all see this market going? Is the bull really here? #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC $ETH #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
Bitcoin suddenly surged, how should beginners view this?
On the evening of August 19, the price of Bitcoin suddenly soared, once surpassing $69,000, reaching nearly $70,000 at its peak, rising more than 5% in one day. Ethereum also followed, with gains exceeding 8% at one point. If you are new to cryptocurrency, seeing such a "surge" might make you both excited and confused: Why did it suddenly rise? Can it continue to rise? Should you buy now or wait?
1. Why did it suddenly rise?
Simply put, this rise happened because "the bad news everyone expected wasn’t as bad as imagined."
On the evening of August 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve (equivalent to the "central bank" of the U.S.) released the minutes of last month’s meeting. What did the minutes say? The gist was: U.S. inflation remains high, and some within the Fed think interest rates should continue to rise. Sounds like bad news, right?
But the problem is, the market had already anticipated this. Recently, U.S. employment data has been poor, and consumer spending is weak, so everyone already had an idea. So when this "hawkish" minutes were officially released, everyone realized: oh, there wasn’t anything harsher. This feeling of "the boot has dropped" actually relieved the market.
You can understand this as: before an exam, you worry about failing, but when the test paper is handed out, although the score isn’t high, you didn’t fail — so you feel relieved.Since last night until now, I've really been beaten down by ETH to the point of despair.
I was originally waiting for the FOMC minutes to cool down the market, but instead of pushing ETH down, the minutes first wiped out my short position.
The July meeting kept the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% with a 9 to 3 vote, and Logan, Harker, and Kashkari even advocated for a 25 basis point hike.
The content was not dovish at all: inflation is not continuing to decline, policy may still tighten, and even AI financing, AI stock valuations, and US Treasury volatility were called out.
But the market traded not on the possibility of more hikes, but on the fact that there was no hike this time, and the minutes were not more hawkish than expected.
With July CPI cooling and employment weakening, the probability of no change in September remains about 67%, and since the worst-case scenario did not escalate, the suppressed risk positions began to be covered.
BTC rose from 64,300 to 70,000, and ETH was even more outrageous, surging from around 1910 to 2342. BTC just sparked sentiment, but ETH, with greater elasticity and more squeezed shorts, started moving earlier.
My 100x ETH short opened at 1952.52 was forcibly liquidated at 2278.32 😭.
The macro logic hasn't been verified yet, but I was taken out by the market first, sigh.
But this does not mean the Federal Reserve has turned dovish.
As long as inflation and long-term rates rise again later, risk assets will have to be repriced.
The most frustrating thing about the market is: the minutes did not turn dovish, yet ETH first wiped out the shorts.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Yushi's first-day surge is not just about the increase in price
It's about humanoid robots being revalued with real money on the A-share market for the first time
A 629% intraday surge is obviously crazy, but what's more worth thinking about is that the market finally doesn't have to rely solely on PPTs, videos, or financing rumors to value robot companies. Yushi has revenue, shipments, overseas customers, and a very strong scarce label: the first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market
But I don't want to just write about excitement
Robot commercialization is still early; many products remain in scenarios like exhibitions, education, research, and inspection, still far from large-scale entry into factories and homes. The first-day surge is buying scarcity, policy, imagination, and circulating shares, which doesn't mean profits have been realized yet
The most critical question now is: can it transform from "videos of running and jumping" into "machines that customers are willing to continuously repurchase"
Valuations can soar first
But performance will eventually have to land and walk
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ SK Hynix is making large-scale buybacks while continuing to expand production, which is actually the toughest challenge in the AI storage bull market.
Should the money be given to shareholders first, or invested in capacity first?
A 40 trillion KRW buyback is very encouraging, indicating the company believes the stock price does not reflect its true value and is also calming market anxiety about AI capital expenditures. But SK Hynix is simultaneously accelerating HBM, NAND, advanced packaging, and new factory construction. The biggest fear in the storage industry is not failing to make money, but that once profits appear, everyone rushes to expand capacity.
I think what the market should focus on this time is not the buyback scale itself,
but whether management has the ability to apply the brakes between these two things: neither missing AI memory demand nor burning future three years’ profits prematurely on equipment. Buybacks can make shareholders comfortable for a while, but investing capacity incorrectly can cause the cycle to backfire for years.
SK Hynix is not showing off cash flow now,
but proving it will not repeat the mistakes of the old storage cycle this round.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 The most misleading aspect of BTC's recent surge is that many people mistake "shorts being crushed" for "the bull market restarting".
I prefer to stay calm and observe first.
A strong short-term rally usually brings two things: a warming of sentiment and a chasing impulse. The former is good, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite; the latter is dangerous because many start to add positions, leverage up, and find reasons to believe it can go much further as soon as they see a breakout.
What really matters is not that big bullish candle.
It's whether there is spot support after the pullback, whether ETF funds continue to flow in, whether long-term holders are loosening up, and whether derivatives leverage is piling up too quickly again. BTC can continue to rise, but if the rally mainly relies on short squeezes and sentiment, the road ahead will be very volatile.
This round feels more like a market stress test.
It's not about whether it can surge higher, but about who is willing to take over after the surge.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Maya Protocol suspended MAYAChain yesterday. The official statement said that attackers exploited six vulnerabilities to create fake liquidity, eventually stealing about 20 BTC and other assets, with estimated losses around 1.65 million USD.
What ordinary users should remember most from this incident is not "another protocol hacked," but:
When a cross-chain protocol has issues, first check the suspension status before considering transfers or exchanges.
Maya's documentation clearly states: do not continue sending funds when the network is paused; the interface should first check the halted status.
Because cross-chain transactions are not completed with just one click, they usually go through multiple stages including deposit, confirmation, routing, and withdrawal. If any chain or pool in the middle is paused, funds may only be delayed or could be stuck in a state requiring manual intervention.
In the future, when a cross-chain protocol vulnerability is exposed, I will first do three things:
Pause new transactions; only check official announcements and status pages; confirm whether my funds have already entered the pending processing queue.
Do not trust "recovery entrances" shared in groups, and do not repeatedly sign transactions just to transfer out before the suspension.
Cross-chain is convenient, but it ties together multiple chains, liquidity pools, and validator nodes. The longer the path, the more you cannot just focus on the final balance when problems occur.
When you encounter a protocol suspension, do you wait for the official explanation first, or immediately switch to another platform? $Kuaishou-W (01024)$ The most noteworthy aspect of this Q2 financial report is not that total revenue is still growing, but that the revenue structure is changing: advertising and Keling AI are bringing new growth, while live streaming continues to decline; AI commercialization is beginning to show clearer revenue validation, but profit margins and operating profit still face pressure from investment and business restructuring. Let's look at the core data: Kuaishou's Q2 total revenue was 35.535 billion yuan, compared to 35.046 billion yuan in the same period last year; Profit for the period was 3.152 billion yuan, compared to 4.922 billion yuan in the same period last year; Adjusted net profit was 3.913 billion yuan, compared to 5.618 billion yuan in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was 7.122 billion yuan, lower than 7.715 billion yuan in the same period last year. Revenue has not slowed down, but year-on-year pressure on profit margins is already quite clear. Revenue growth mainly came from advertising and other services. Online marketing services generated 20.6 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, remaining the largest source of income. Other services revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year. The company clearly stated that the growth mainly came from Keling's AI business. In contrast, live streaming revenue was 8.7 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year. This means Kuaishou's commercialization focus is shifting further from traditional live streaming to advertising, e-commerce, and AI-related services. For the platform, this is the direction for optimizing business structure; However, whether the decline in livestreaming revenue can be continuously covered by new business continues to be key to the quality of subsequent growth. Last night, the scale of ETH short liquidations was almost equivalent to the scale of long liquidations on October 11, 2025, with about 350,000 ETH forcibly liquidated.
ETH price rose by 18.5%.
Its ecosystem-related tokens L2 and DEFI increased far less than Ethereum itself.
Phenomenally, the price increase of Ethereum was caused by a short squeeze liquidation.
Whether the ETH price can stabilize and continue to rise depends on whether incremental funds enter.
At this stage, the $ETH price may form a temporary top. 🚨【Is the bear market over? Last night's White House meeting might be more important than just a piece of good news】
If you only interpret last night's White House meeting as "Trump coming out again to hype Crypto," you might be underestimating the significance of this meeting.
Because this time, sitting at the same table were not just Trump and several crypto companies, but also the SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as financial and crypto industry core players like Nasdaq, NYSE parent company ICE, and others.
More importantly, the meeting sent out several very clear signals:
🇺🇸 The U.S. is incorporating Crypto into its long-term financial strategy.
Trump mentioned again that the U.S. may continue to increase allocations to Bitcoin and other digital assets in the future.
At the same time, he urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act to promote the establishment of a clearer regulatory framework for the crypto market.
What deserves more attention is that the CFTC is studying how to allow Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a compliant manner.
This means U.S. regulators are no longer just considering "whether to regulate Crypto," but rather:
How to integrate new financial models such as trading, stablecoins, on-chain financing, and prediction markets into the U.S. system.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also emphasized at the meeting that the next key battle is securing 60 votes in the Senate for the CLARITY Act.
Why is this important?
Because presidential support for Crypto may change with election cycles, but if the market structure bill is truly enacted, industry rules could shift from "political attitudes" to long-term institutions.
So I believe the biggest signal from last night is not:
❌ The U.S. is about to go crazy buying BTC
But rather:
✅ The U.S. is seriously starting to consider how to build its own Crypto financial infrastructure.
From Bitcoin to stablecoins;
From trading platforms to perpetual contracts;
From prediction markets to on-chain financing;
And even AI and digital assets.
What the U.S. is now competing for may no longer be just the price movement of a single coin, but the discourse power of the next-generation financial system.
So, is the bear market really over?
It's still too early to conclude.
But one thing is becoming increasingly clear:
Crypto is gradually transforming from a "high-risk asset" into a strategic financial infrastructure that the U.S. must participate in competing for.
This might be the real point worth paying attention to from last night's White House meeting.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Three addresses belonging to the same whale/entity are chasing a $27.93 million $ETH rally! They previously took profits and exited near the ~$4400 bull market peak 🙌
In the past 7 hours, the three addresses bought 13,313.5 ETH on-chain at an average price of $2098.43, totaling $27.93 million. They currently hold 15,718 ETH, valued at $35.65 million.
Notably: The entity's funds originated from Tornado. 11 months ago, they received ETH in batches from the mixer and sold it for stablecoins, which enabled last night's buying spree. At that time, the coin price was still around $4400. Quite a savvy move to sell high and buy low.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Yesterday, the July FOMC meeting minutes were officially released, revealing a tone even more hawkish than the surface-level "9 to 3" voting result.
The market was already aware that the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike. However, the details in the minutes disclosed an even tenser atmosphere: not only those three votes, but the text shows that "several" officials supported an immediate rate hike, and "many" officials believe that if inflation does not cool as expected, it will still be necessary to resume rate hikes in the future. Several officials specifically warned that the broad price increases over the past year across various goods and services indicate that inflation is sticky and not due to a single factor.
This dealt a blow to the market, which had been betting on a dovish stance. The market had priced in a 65% chance of no change in September, but vague terms like "several" and "many" suggest that the actual hawkish faction within the Fed is much broader than the three votes shown—there are actually more people in the room nodding in agreement to rate hikes.
The real highlight coming up is the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium from August 27 to 29. The new Fed Chair will deliver their first keynote speech since taking office, and their policy stance will provide more guidance than these past meeting minutes.
On the surface, it's 9 to 3, but beneath the surface, there are turbulent undercurrents. Do you think September will really bring an "unexpected rate hike," or is this just the Fed's habitual "verbal hawkishness" to keep more flexibility for future decisions? BTC重新摸到7万美元，但今天真正重要的不是“破7万”，而是市场结构发生了明显变化： ETF资金继续扩大 → ETH开始明显吸金 → SOL链上活跃同步回升 → 市场情绪一天从恐惧切换到贪婪。 这已经比昨天的“结构性轮动”更进一步，但稳定币没有明显扩张，加上空头挤压因素存在，暂时还不能直接定义成新一轮单边牛市。 📊 市场快照 截至08:55 HKT： BTC：$69,604｜+7.89%
ETH：$2,270.30｜+18.68%
SOL：$85.54｜+11.13% 加密总市值已经来到约 $2.468万亿，24小时暴增 7.91%。 但这里有个很重要的结构： ETH +18.68% > SOL +11.13% > BTC +7.89% 这已经不是前几天BTC单独修复的行情。 资金明显开始向更高Beta资产扩散。 同时，恐惧与贪婪指数从： 29 → 46 → 62 一周时间从“恐惧”快速进入“贪婪”。 所以现在市场正在发生两个变化： 资金开始进攻，但交易也开始拥挤。 💰 ETF：这是今天上涨质量提高的关键 最新ETF合计净流入： +$268.1M 其中： BTC：+$189.3M
#BTC突破69000美元, how far can this round of rally go? Last night, $BTC briefly approached $69,888 before falling back above 68,000, while ETH simultaneously rose to break through 2,119. Over $1.6 billion was liquidated online in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for $1.44 billion—this is not an ordinary rebound; it is a premeditated "bull hunt." The four main drivers behind the rally: The powder for this round of surges was already planted; last night it was only ignited. (1) Macro Perspective: The U.S. Treasury is igniting a "disguised QE" initiative. Increasing the scale of long-term bond buybacks from 2 billion to at least 4 billion USD per deal lowers long-term interest rates and weakens the dollar, directly lowering the opportunity cost of holding BTC. Standard Chartered analysts bluntly stated: "This is exactly the kind of development BTC likes." (2) Liquidity: ETF reversals provide ammunition. On August 17-18, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $487 million over two days, led by BlackRock IBIT, directly reversing the previous continuous outflows. (3) Regulatory aspect: Washington "sends warmth." The White House convened a closed-door meeting between Trump, SEC, and CFTC leaders and crypto executives; The SEC proposed a "Regulation Crypto Assets" bill. Policy uncertainty decreases, clearing obstacles for institutional participation. (4) Leverage: Bearish stamping amplifies gains. The scale of short liquidations is about 8.6 times that of long positions, and every forced liquidation pushes prices higher, forming a death spiral of "the higher the price, the more it explodes, the more it blows up." BTC's volatility has fallen below the historical 98 level over the past few weeksThe pressure from U.S. debt may have become so great that the U.S. Treasury Department has to personally step in to "stabilize the market."
The scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases has increased from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion.
After the news broke, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly fell, gold, $BTC, and U.S. stock futures all strengthened simultaneously, while the dollar came under pressure.
Market sentiment was instantly ignited.
But here is a detail:
Do not interpret this as the "Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy again."
Treasury bond repurchases ≠ QE.
It is more like supplementing liquidity to the long-term bond market to ease short-term pressure.
Injecting $4 billion into a U.S. Treasury market worth tens of trillions of dollars cannot change the long-term U.S. debt problem.
But it sends an important signal:
Debt pressure is forcing the U.S. to seek a new balance.
And this is precisely why the long-term logic for $BTC and gold continues to strengthen.
As U.S. debt keeps growing, whether through interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, or lower financing costs, the market will essentially have to reconsider one question:
How long can the purchasing power of the dollar be maintained?
Gold's value comes from scarcity.
Bitcoin is even more special — its supply cap will not change because of increased U.S. debt.
As for $ETH, if it enters a rate-cutting cycle in the future, the dollar weakens, and market risk appetite returns, high Beta assets may see greater elasticity.
So I won’t simply interpret tonight’s rally as "the bull market has arrived."
It’s more like a signal:
The world’s largest debt market is releasing pressure.
And every time the monetary system changes, it spurs a revaluation of new assets.
BTC, ETH, and gold may be entering a new cycle that belongs to them.SEC meeting canceled, market is repricing the "regulatory timeline"
On August 14, the SEC canceled the crypto rulemaking meeting, followed by the Senate failing to advance the CLARITY Act before the August recess. These two events combined have caused a subtle but important shift in market expectations regarding the "regulatory timeline."
Previously, the market generally believed 2026 would be a "big year" for crypto institutionalization — with the CLARITY Act passing, the GENIUS Act implementation, and approval of ETF staking functions. Now, it appears the timeline is being extended. SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a statement on August 18 emphasizing "exemptions suitable for crypto market innovation," but his wording was cautious and did not provide a clear time commitment. The probability of the bill passing in the prediction market has been pushed down from 82% to the 20% range. This is bad news for short-term traders — catalysts are delayed. But for long-term allocators, a delay in regulation does not mean cancellation. The regulatory path will continue, and bipartisan consensus on digital asset legislation still exists. The key is to recognize: BTC allocation logic does not depend on the timing of bill passage — its identity has already been confirmed by the market; ETH’s valuation re-rating heavily depends on the bill’s details — staking, DeFi, and RWA compliance boundaries all need the bill to define them. With the regulatory timeline extended, for BTC it means "keep waiting," for ETH it means "keep enduring." Patience has never been evenly distributed to everyone. 2026.8.20 Daytime Market Analysis
News is expected to be short-term bullish but medium- and long-term bearish. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and some officials support rate cuts. Regarding the current news, medium- and long-term benefits have not yet materialized significantly; it can only be considered short-term bullish.
On the day: The current price is in the final stage of a residual rise, news is bullish, with a sharp increase pushing towards a high level.
Resistance levels: 71600, 80500, 2430, 2520
Support levels: 2230, 2160, 68500, 67200
Ethereum on the day: Aggressive long positions at the current price of 2265, with additional longs at 2230 and 2240; stop loss at 2210; take profit at 2350, 2330, 2400 [If the U.S. market does not reach the take profit, long positions should also exit]
Bitcoin on the day: 4-hour consolidation breakout, gradually pushing towards a high; long positions around 68500 ± 200 points; stop loss at 68000; take profit at 71000, 71500, 72500
Combined with live broadcast and technical analysis, control position size and manage risk; for reference only #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH 政策风向变了，价格先涨一步。 白宫今天跟一帮加密大佬开会，谈的不是客套，是代币化、清晰法案这些实打实的议题。市场对这种信号的解读永远比官方表述快：政策风向在变，价格就先涨一步。 出席的人不是普通嘉宾，而是行业里真正能拍板的人。 交易所、托管机构、稳定币发行方、链上项目的核心人物齐聚白宫，本身就是政策风向的一种展示。而美国政府对加密资产的态度，从过去几年的"打压 + 起诉"，正在快速转向"对话 + 立法"。 这种转向不是一次的单独事件，而是过去累积下来的趋势。 监管框架提案、Project Crypto 战略、退休基金配置加密资产的探讨，层层铺垫下来，这次峰会只是水到渠成的一环。 具体看几个议题。代币化是这次讨论的重点之一。把传统资产放到链上做代币化处理，是 2024 年以来华尔街最热的赛道之一。清晰法案对应的则是行业最关心的合规边界问题，哪些行为合法、哪些不算、哪些事后可能被追溯。 一旦规则清晰，机构资金入场就有了明确路径。讨论这些议题本身就意味着政策制定者已经在严肃对待。 加密市场对政策信号历来是过激反应：好消息放大十倍，坏消息放大十倍。这次峰会的时间点也微妙，正好赶上财政部买回长期This wave of rise is really due to an information gap; many people don't understand why it surged so sharply. The main reason is that on August 19, the White House's Trump met with top figures from the crypto circle, and at the same time, the U.S. Treasury expanded U.S. debt repurchases. This signal was regarded as positive by institutions last night, and the news spread again early this morning, causing cryptocurrencies to surge directly. However, no specific details of the talks have been released yet, so be sure to watch out for a pullback. $BTC $ETH $BEAT Last night's market was like a sudden midsummer downpour.
Bitcoin hit seventy thousand dollars, Ethereum stood at 2200, and as the numbers flickered on the screen, I was momentarily stunned—not by the rise itself, but by the "long-awaited" return. In recent weeks, the market had been like a stagnant pool of thick water, with neither bulls nor bears having any strength, and even the candlesticks moving sluggishly.
But just a few hours before the Federal Reserve minutes were released, the market suddenly came alive. A large bullish candle shot up, crushing the previously accumulated short positions—this was not a "value discovery," but a liquidation targeting excessive pessimism. When everyone was convinced "it would fall further," the contrarian bet became the sharpest weapon.
On a deeper level, I tend to believe the market was pricing in an "early policy pivot." Signals like Trump meeting with crypto mining executives and the SEC's rare easing of exemption clauses combined to let capital sniff out an acceleration in regulatory compliance. Coupled with the U.S. Treasury's unexpected balance sheet expansion to repurchase long-term bonds, the dollar weakened accordingly—Bitcoin, as the asset most sensitive to liquidity, naturally was the first to jump up and catch this wave.
But if you ask me what this "big trend signal" is, honestly, I remain cautious. Seventy thousand is a psychological barrier, but not yet a breakout level. This feels more like a breather after a desperate struggle rather than a triumphant bull market anthem.
Sharp rises and falls are ultimately just a numbers game; what truly matters is whether we become a bit clearer-headed after each fluctuation. 兄弟们，昨晚加密市场打了一场歼灭战。 BTC从64000附近直接拉穿69000，最高触及69174美元，24小时涨6.69%，创6月2日以来新高。ETH同步飙至2089美元，涨9.05%，创5月27日以来新高。SOL涨超6%，主流币普涨。 爆仓数据才是昨晚最狠的。 Coinglass数据显示，近24小时全网爆仓13.45亿美元，涉及105,370名交易者。空单爆仓11.91亿美元，多单仅1.53亿——空头占比接近九成。其中过去1小时爆仓就干了11.94亿，空头占比93.51%。 BTC空头爆6.62亿，ETH空头爆3.66亿。Binance爆5.59亿、Bybit 3.11亿、Gate 1.11亿、Bitget 1.01亿。高杠杆做空在价格上行中集中被清算。 ETF端，机构在持续吸筹。 比特币现货ETF单日净流入2.9756亿美元，结束连续三天流出。贝莱德IBIT贡献1.6023亿领跑，富达FBTC1.119亿紧随其后。以太坊ETF净流入3085万美元。两日合计约4.87亿机构资金进场。 昨晚为什么拉？三件事共振。 第一，美国财政部放大招。 宣布长期国债流动性回购规模翻倍至每次40亿美The Next Threshold for Agent Payments: Control Plane
The Block reports that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes tokenization and AI Agents trading on behalf of users could cause blockchain trading activity to be underestimated by 10 to 100 times; however, he also admits that longer trading periods do not necessarily proportionally increase volume. This is a directional judgment, not a prediction.
According to Decrypt, the new round of Base accelerator targets trading, payments, financing, and AI Agents, covering stablecoin-driven Agent shopping, trading, and payments; the report also mentions that Coinbase's Agentic Wallets allow Agents to hold USDC and make payments via x402.
On another front, Maya Protocol suspended operations after being exploited due to six software vulnerabilities, with post-analysis pointing to false balances in liquidity pools; the team did not indicate AI involvement in the attack. This is not an Agent payment incident but illustrates that automated execution encountering erroneous states, overly broad permissions, or abnormal rules can pose risks even before models lose control.
First define permissions, limits, manual confirmations, and stop conditions; then discuss trading volume. Disclosure: Compiled by the CoWallet team, we have a stance on self-custody and key security issues.
#AgentPayments #x402 #AI #Web3 #MPC $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The US will definitely cut interest rates consecutively, the logic is very simple:
Japan holds the largest amount of US debt globally; if the yen collapses, it will have to sell US debt to save itself. Once US debt is sold, prices fall and actual yields rise, causing the US to face soaring costs when issuing new debt to replace old debt. So the US rescuing Japan is not out of goodwill, but to save its own debt.
Baysent's solution: expand the channel for borrowing against US debt collateral, reduce long-term debt issuance, and issue more short-term debt. Not letting you lock in high interest rates indicates that rates will definitely fall later. Poor employment data? That's just an excuse for rate cuts, not the truth.
Conclusion: The US will inevitably start a cycle of consecutive rate cuts; the tough talk is just a smokescreen.
Impact on various assets in one sentence:
Gold: positive, most certain
Bitcoin: positive, most elastic, but if rate cuts are to rescue a recession, it will fall first then rise
US stocks: overall positive, tech stocks benefit the most
US dollar: negative
That's what I say, let's wait and see.
Don't chase BTC highs; wait for a pullback to buy in and then forget about it 8.20 After the one-sided frenzy, returning to consolidation, gold trading discipline always outweighs predictions
I. Key risk data today (Beijing Time)
1. 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15;
2. No major CPI, interest rate decisions, or speeches from Europe and the US; intraday market mainly relies on technicals and US Treasury/US dollar linked fluctuations.
II. News summary
(1) Major bullish core news
1. US Treasury significantly expands long-term bond repurchase (the core driving force)
2. Fed July meeting minutes: "Sell the expectation, buy the fact"
(2) Medium to long-term supportive bullish factors
Global central banks continue gold purchases: China's central bank has increased gold reserves for 21 consecutive months, adding another 640,000 ounces in July; in June, global central banks' net gold purchases hit a yearly peak of 51 tons, continuously locking down downside space for gold prices.
(3) Potential bearish & risk factors (largest intraday pressure)
1. After an overnight short-term surge, the market is seriously overbought, accumulating a large amount of short-term profit-taking, making it easy for intraday sharp rises to fall back and wide-range shakeouts;
2. Middle East geopolitical risk: The US announced a new round of severe sanctions on Iran; if conflict escalates, it temporarily boosts safe-haven demand; if it settles smoothly, the bullish effect fades;
3. The US dollar index is oversold and requires technical rebound, which can easily trigger gold pullbacks.
(4) Market strength summary
The long-term bullish trend remains intact; intraday is a high-level consolidation after a big rise, prohibiting chasing longs at high levels, mainly buying on dips to support, with key resistance levels for small short positions to play pullbacks.
Key levels
Support: 4500 round number, 4488 (intraday strength dividing line), 4472
Resistance: 4529 (0.618 resistance), 4548, 4575
Current reference price: 4497
(Priority execution, follow the big trend)
1. Asian session: Buy northbound at 4490-4495; stop loss 4475; target 4525/4545
(Only play overbought pullbacks, light positions, quick in and out, no stubborn holding)
2. Asian session: Sell southbound at 4528-4530; stop loss 4540; target 4510; exit immediately upon reaching target, no long-term holding
3. Restriction: If price strongly holds above 4530, immediately abandon short ideas.
Total position not to exceed 5% of total funds; after a big rise, consolidation intensifies, prohibit heavy positions and holding losing trades; exit unconditionally at stop loss.
(For reference only, strict risk control)The SEC has introduced a new initiative called Regulation Crypto Assets.
Qualified crypto projects can raise up to $5 million over 4 years, or up to $75 million per year, as long as they meet disclosure requirements.
A conditional safe harbor has also been established, allowing eligible tokens to no longer be considered securities after ceasing management activities.
The CLARITY Act is stuck in Congress, so the SEC took action first. The CFTC is also holding the inaugural meeting of its new advisory committee today. The White House just finished a crypto meeting, and the SEC immediately rolled out this set of rules. The direction is consistent—bypassing Congress and advancing the regulatory framework through administrative means.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, raising the single repurchase limit for 10-30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to $4 billion. This effectively injects liquidity into the long-term Treasury market, which is an indirect positive for risk assets. $BTC #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 After going crypto, is everyone still trading US stocks?
After the positive news from SK Hynix yesterday, it's still possible to play the long side here.
But since yesterday's trades all made money,
the play here doesn't feel as attractive anymore.
I've allocated almost 80% of my position to crypto,
currently only holding a small short position in SpaceX.
Actually, my understanding of SpaceX has been correct all along.
Unfortunately, it's just too strong itself, so despite the expected unlocking this round, I still haven't made significant profits.
But it's already pretty good.
As long as I don't lose money,
profits are just a reward for understanding.
I can only say my understanding is still insufficient.
But no matter what, I'm always improving, which is good.
For this round of unlocking, I personally think there will still be a decent drop tonight.
As for other Tradfi, I am still quite optimistic about SK Hynix,
because the Koreans buying it seem to be digging deep into their pockets.
I might finish this round with SpaceX first, then look for long opportunities in SK Hynix.
After all, this is a mid-to-long-term opportunity.
Before yesterday, the leader in storage was SNDK; when SNDK rose, everyone rose, when SNDK fell, everyone fell.
But yesterday SK Hynix officially announced a buyback. So the leader has switched to SK Hynix.
Because of the positive news, during the rise, the leader always rises the most and falls the least. So for each round, it's clear who to buy.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ BTC's "simplicity" is a moat during uncertain times, while ETH's "complexity" is a double-edged sword.
The current macro environment is full of uncertainty: ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve's fluctuating interest rate path, and the unresolved CLARITY Act. In this environment, the logic behind capital behavior is highly consistent: buy the simple first.
BTC's simplicity is reflected on several levels: simple identity—as a commodity, not a security, under CFTC jurisdiction; simple narrative—as digital gold, fixed supply, non-sovereign; simple allocation—institutional legal review can be done on one page. This simplicity is a huge moat during uncertain times—it requires no explanation, no assumptions, no waiting for detailed rules. ETH's complexity, on the other hand, is a double-edged sword. It carries multiple functions simultaneously: settlement, execution, store of value, yield generation, governance, each requiring corresponding regulatory confirmation. The market is unwilling to pay a premium for "unconfirmed complexity" during uncertain times, so ETH's exchange rate relative to BTC remains under pressure. But once the regulatory framework clarifies these complexities one by one, the previous discount will turn into a premium—BTC can only offer store of value, while ETH can offer a combination of "store of value + yield + settlement + governance." During uncertain times, simplicity is a moat; during certain times, complexity is a moat. The current market is between the two, so BTC leading the way is reasonable. Real-time midday market analysis: SNDK current price is 1591.03, down 3.34% in 24 hours, with intraday fluctuation range between 1565.89-1736.24, and trading volume showing a trend of first increasing then decreasing. At key levels, resistance above is at 1700.79, support below is at 1578.09; the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 1597, where prices have broken below the middle band, and bears have a clear advantage. Your opening price is 1595.8, and the current price is close to the cost line. If it continues to decline slightly, it may trigger a stop-loss exit to exit. There are four core reasons for short selling: First, the continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields weighs on tech stocks, the storage sector as a whole weakens, and bullish sentiment has completely faded; Second, previous gains were mainly driven by institutional research reports, but during the rally, volume shrank and long-term capital was lacking; Third, the yearly gains fully reflect expectations of AI storage price hikes, and in 2027, concentrated capacity will be released, signaling a turning point in the cycle; Fourth, a large amount of profit-taking has accumulated at high levels, the rebound is weak, and selling pressure continues to be released. In the short term, prices are holding below the moving average, with rebounds under pressure near 1630, support below 1578, and a break below will directly test the 1565 bottom, with the downtrend likely to continue. Overall, the market is at a critical juncture of bull-bearish transition, with technical and fundamental conditions resonating with a bearish bias, but caution is needed regarding short-term risks of oversold rebounds. The above is only a market trend review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please view it rationally and make independent decisions. ⚠️ Risk warning: Crypto and stock markets