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#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Regarding my expectations, I see them in three layers:
Basically settled: Revenue
TSMC announces revenue monthly, and the total for three months is already out: Q3 totals about 1.494 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of +51%, already exceeding the company's own guidance range of 44.6–45.8 billion USD, and also higher than analysts' average expectation of 1.46 trillion. So revenue is no surprise; it's a "known good."
Most likely outcome: Profit and gross margin
Market consensus: Net profit around 740 billion New Taiwan Dollars (year-on-year about +65%), ADR earnings about 4.4 USD each. The company guidance for gross margin is 65%–67% (Q2 was 67.7%, and the guidance itself already hinted at sequential dilution, coming from 2nm ramp-up and overseas fabs). My expectation is it will be at the upper-middle of the guidance—demand and capacity utilization are clear, the real test is that the dilution extent does not exceed expectations. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
$476 million liquidated in one hour! Bullish stampede review + market analysis
✅ Core reasons for liquidation
1. Root cause: Macro bearish due to CPI exceeding expectations
US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, causing the market to reprice the Fed's rate hike probability, pushing US Treasury yields up and the dollar stronger. Crypto is a non-interest-bearing risk asset, so large funds first reduce positions to hedge risk. BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been continuously seeing net outflows, with insufficient buying pressure to absorb the sell-off.
2. Chain reaction: Bullish concentrated stop-loss triggers a stampede
Many funds previously speculated on CPI optimism and placed long orders in advance, accumulating a large number of long positions near support levels. After the price broke key levels, stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, and these stop-loss orders themselves became sell orders, further pushing prices down, creating a negative feedback loop (the more it falls, the more liquidations; the more liquidations, the more it falls).
3. Structure: ETH is the hardest hit
ETH is much more elastic than BTC, and leveraged funds prefer to add longs on ETH, so this time ETH liquidation amount ($199 million) exceeded Bitcoin's, with a deeper drop (24h -5.54%).
📌 How to interpret the market next & trading ideas
Market signal interpretation
1. Large short-term long liquidations will release some selling pressure in the short term but do not mean an immediate bottom or rebound
Liquidations are forced liquidations; after forced selling ends, there will be a temporary lack of concentrated selling pressure, making a small rebound likely; however, the macro bearish logic remains (rising rate hike expectations), so the rebound is likely weak and unlikely to reverse into a strong rally.
2. Focus on the two previously mentioned defensive support levels
• BTC: first defense at 81500, strong support at 80000
• ETH: first defense at 2400, strong support at 2300
ETH has already broken the first defense line at 2400 and is now testing the 2300 level; if 2300 is effectively broken, a new round of leveraged stampede will begin.
3. Small-cap privacy coins like ZEC: In a market environment where large caps are killing longs, altcoin risks are greater, downside is more likely to spiral out of control, and support levels become less reliable.
Trading ideas based on position status
🔹 If you currently hold long positions:
• No stop-loss set, heavy position: Do not blindly hold; macro bearishness has not disappeared. Once strong support is broken, a new liquidation wave will come; reduce positions first on small rebounds to control risk.
• Light long positions: Do not rush to add on rebounds; move stop-loss down below new lows and strictly control losses.
🔹 If you are short:
• Currently in the bearish realization phase; a wave of concentrated liquidations has already occurred in the short term, so it is not suitable to chase shorts!
Chasing shorts risks hitting short-term reversals like “bearish landing and oversold rebound” spikes, easily triggering stop-losses; wait for rebounds to resistance levels before looking for opportunities.
🔹 If you are out of the market:
Priority is to observe; the macro bearish CPI needs time to digest. Wait for two signals before considering entry: either price holds strong support and stops falling with sideways movement; or Fed officials signal easing and rate hike expectations cool down. Do not guess or bottom-fish.
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The formula for making big money in the crypto world is something I've been thinking about more and more. By doing these 5 things well, you can basically achieve compound interest on your funds, step by step, with increasing profits. First, you have to choose the right targets. In crypto, it's easy to choose: only Bitcoin and Ethereum. Then, patiently wait for their sharp drops.
By sharp drops, I mean a decline of at least 50% from the peak, then place buy orders in batches, aiming to build a heavy position. Then hold long-term, no matter what kind of pullbacks or negative news come, just don't get off the train, firmly stay on board. Finally, when emotions are high and the market is shouting about an eternal bull market, sell in batches to lock in profits.
This cycle repeats, so there's no worry about not getting big results. In fact, the two bull markets I've experienced in the space followed this path. In 2020, the average price was 8,000, held long-term until selling at 54,000 in May 2021; in 2022, the average price was 18,000, held long-term, then sold in batches at 110,000 to 120,000 in 2025.
This time in 2026, I'm actually following a similar path: Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 63,000, and I started building positions in batches. But this bear market's drop was a bit too small, so I only bought two layers of positions before the big V-shaped rally. Now I can only patiently wait for opportunities to appear. It's impossible for me to chase and FOMO buy Bitcoin above 80,000. At worst, I just miss out, but missing out doesn't mean losing money. Besides, I still have 20% of my position on the train and 80% in wealth management, so my mindset is actually quite good.#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced a long time ago, about 46.7 billion USD, higher than the company's forecast of 44.6 to 45.8 billion USD. The financial report meeting on Thursday was not to review revenue, but the costs behind the revenue.
The first challenge is the gross margin. The Q3 forecast is from 65% to 67%, averaging 66%, down 1.7 percentage points from 67.7% in Q2, due to the 2nm capacity ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points.After the US CPI data was released yesterday, US Treasury bonds initially plunged, with yields rising to near historical highs. However, as the stock market fluctuated and declined, US Treasuries instead oscillated upward, eventually closing near the day's high, forming a V-shaped reversal.
This market movement is quite interesting. The initial drop in US Treasuries was due to the CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations, which reignited market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates again soon. But the subsequent rise was more likely due to a flight-to-safety effect (i.e., the safe-haven attribute of US Treasuries returning). This also reflects the market's overall acceptance of the current yield levels (combined with recent US Treasury auction results, it is evident that primary market demand for US Treasuries is significantly improving).
The midterm election period is approaching, during which the US stock market is unlikely to perform well. Instead, AI hardware stocks are facing adjustment pressure after continuous declines, so funds are flowing into US Treasuries. Whether the Fed continues to raise rates in the short term or not will not change this capital flight to safety.
Finally, there is, of course, another possibility: when the global economy faces a recession, stock prices fall and bond prices rise, which is normal. However, there is currently insufficient evidence for this assumption (the high CPI itself is one indication of an overheating economy). #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 近200百万美元单日回流，牛市要回来了？先别急着庆祝——$BTC 报83,314美元，$ETH 2,496美元，$SOL 106.61美元，三大主流资产没有一只走出全面爆发行情。ETF当日数据看似亮眼：$BTC 净流入1.76亿美元，$ETH 净流入2,480万美元，$SOL 则小幅净流出；但把镜头拉长到7天，三者仍共同承压。这就是当前最值得咀嚼的矛盾：ETF资金在进，$BTC 价格却在退。 这个背离本身就是答案。单日资金回流从来不等于趋势反转，它更像是一次喘息，而非号角。真正决定方向的，是资金能否形成持续共振，而不是某一天的数字好看。 结构上，$BTC 的抗跌性明显强于$ETH 与$SOL，后两者弹性更弱，说明资金尚未发起全面进攻。这种分化透露的信号很直接：当前更像是下跌途中的休整，而非新趋势的起点。只有当$ETH 和$SOL 同步跟上，复苏才具备可信度；仅靠$BTC 独涨，只能定义为局部反弹。 今晚美国9月CPI数据公布，核心通胀超预期，美联储加息路径的分歧仍待消化。数据落地前，猜测谁会先拉盘没有意义；数据落地后，真正该盯的是三大币种能否同向放量。这才是验证资金共振的硬指标。 机会Gold seems to have stabilized, but Bitcoin has gone down. Why?
Bitcoin has already broken below the lower boundary of its consolidation range first, but we can see that except for Bitcoin, most other major coins have basically broken below their recent consolidation ranges.
So Bitcoin has more followers, continuously moving down in this downtrend torrent. Although Bitcoin is still relatively strong compared to other major coins and remains high around 80,000, when all major coins roll down along with the Nasdaq, it also can't hold up.
Also, have you noticed that since the Nasdaq 100 index runs around the clock, Bitcoin and gold now tend to follow the Nasdaq 100 more closely, and have less relation to the S&P so far. The US index I watch the most is the Nasdaq 100.
Gold still has some support from national reserve funds and institutional capital, but personally, I feel that without a substantial reversal candlestick, this support will also face selling pressure, especially if the Nasdaq index continues to probe lower. $XAU $ETH I'm firmly bullish, not shorting.
2412, red close, amplitude only 0.24%, the market looks dead like a still pond. But the quieter it is, the more it feels like someone is quietly accumulating chips underneath. From 2725 smashed down, two rebounds at 2580 and 2540 both failed to hold, MA30 pressing at 2467, the structure indeed looks bad—I won't pretend otherwise. But the 2400 level has been stepped on countless times, each time pulled back, never truly broken. Today's low was 2401.37, again held close. If it were really going to collapse, it wouldn't stop exactly here every time.
Fast sharp drops and quick rebounds indicate selling pressure is being vented, not continuous dumping. The ones taking over are not retail investors; retail investors don't have the patience to repeatedly place orders at the same price.
My strategy: enter in batches between 2400-2408, add a position at a spike down to 2385, cut position size in half, lower leverage. No chasing highs, no getting impulsive over a big bullish candle. Stop loss at 2372, exit immediately if broken, no holding or averaging down—I've learned that lesson from past forced liquidations for life.
Take profits in three stages: one-third at 2440, which is the dense zone of the previous sharp drop; another third at 2467, the MA30 hurdle to watch the candle's reaction; leave the rest for 2510, if it goes up, consider it market's reward.
Is the rebound a bull trap? Possibly. But I'd rather take a small loss and stop out at support than chase shorts on a breakdown and get slapped back. Direction is bullish, pace is slow.Yesterday, Yaoyao choosing to bottom-fish at $ETH 2480 was a huge mistake, but fortunately, the stop loss at 2450 was timely, with a loss of nearly 2000u😡😡
September CPI is coming, how will crude oil and US Treasuries perform?
US Treasuries: Inflation is off the charts, US Treasuries are being sold off, and yields are soaring! A stronger dollar means pressure on the stock market, crypto market, and gold. The shadow of high interest rates weighs on the market again. As long as yields remain high, a major market rebound is unlikely.
Crude oil: Much of this inflation is driven by oil prices. On one hand, high inflation strengthens rate hikes (bearish for oil prices), on the other hand, Middle East geopolitical conflicts support oil prices, creating a contradictory market. Short term, expect high-level volatility; geopolitics remains the main variable for crude oil.
Crypto market: With rising rate hike expectations, ETH plunged straight from 2523 to 2411! BTC crashed from 8400 to 8151, and altcoins fell even harder. Do not try to bottom-fish in the near term! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Faces Another Test Tonight
CPI exceeding expectations triggers a sharp drop, decline logic + defensive support levels
Core reasons for the decline
1. US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations and pushing US Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on the valuation of non-yielding crypto assets;
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional funds are already withdrawing, lacking buying support;
3. The decline triggered a chain of leveraged liquidations, with forced sell-offs accelerating the drop;
4. ZEC is a privacy small-cap coin; when risk appetite declines, funds prioritize abandoning thematic altcoins, amplifying the drop.
Defense support by coin (First defense = short-term first lifeline, breaking it tends to accelerate the decline; Second defense = strong support, dense multi-chip area)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
• Short-term first defense: 81500, the first line of defense for short-term bulls; holding here will lead to consolidation and bottoming;
• Key strong defense: 80000 (round number + dense options support)
• After breaking 80000, the next target range: 77000-78000, selling pressure will significantly increase
✅ ETH Ethereum (more elastic, falls faster)
• Short-term first defense: 2400
• Key strong defense: 2300, this is a previous chip concentration area
• Breaking below 2300, look down to around 2180, where DeFi staking and leveraged positions are concentrated and prone to liquidation
$BTC $ETH $ZEC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, what are the key points to watch in the earnings night?
TSMC will release its full Q3 earnings report and hold a briefing on October 15. According to the disclosed monthly data, Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, directly setting a new historical revenue record. The company previously guided a Q3 gross margin of 65%-67%.
With revenue data already confirmed, market focus shifts to whether profits can keep pace. The core driver of this high growth is AI computing demand, with Nvidia chips, ASICs, and CoWoS advanced packaging orders remaining robust, serving as the main engines driving performance.
Notably, despite the record-high revenue, TSM and xTSM stocks have already seen a pullback, as capital is preemptively trading on earnings expectations. If gross margin falls short of expectations, a sell-off triggered by "good news being priced in turning into bad news" could occur.
Tonight's earnings focus will be on gross margin, capital expenditures, and the outlook for subsequent AI orders. The strong AI market logic remains, but the stock price has already priced in most of the positive factors in the short term. Avoid blindly chasing highs and be especially cautious of volatility risks after the positive news is realized.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Today $BTC is hovering around 81,500, grinding close to the 50-day moving average (about 81,100-81,200).
The four bear-to-bull turning points you mentioned do look quite similar: after breaking above the 50-day moving average, it almost always comes back to test it around 40-50 days later, with a roughly 30% gain during that period. History loves to repeat this script.
But the key difference comes afterward: • In 2015 and 2019, after the retest, it didn’t break below and then directly surged at least 50%; • In 2023, it first broke below, scared some people, then quickly recovered, and still went on to gain 50%.
At this position now, it depends on whether it wants to do the “elegant retest” like the first two cases or the “scare first then recover” version like 2023.
Recently, it dropped from 84,000-86,000, just enough to test the 50-day moving average, then bounced back. The short-term RSI is around 46, neither hot nor cold, and the short moving averages are still pressing down, a bit grinding. But the mid-term structure remains intact, with the 50-day still above the 200-day, so the overall trend is not broken.
Currently, it looks more like the “standard retest script is playing out” rather than the trend turning bearish. Whether it rallies directly or breaks down first then recovers, history offers two possibilities, and the market hasn’t chosen a side yet.
Don’t rush to open positions betting on the script; first see if it can stabilize around here. If it stabilizes, then look up to 84,000-85,000; if it breaks, then consider if it’s the 2023 pattern. This grinding here is the most patience-testing, but historically, after the grind, there’s often a good move.
(The above is pure speculation and does not constitute any advice; don’t blame me if you lose money.)01 An impressive report card also brings a tougher question. A quarterly revenue of $16.8 billion, adjusted profitability achieved, and a target valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is pushing the AI company IPO story to a new scale. According to Reuters on October 14, citing participants at an investor meeting, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion. The Financial Times reported the same, stating the company told investors it was profitable on an adjusted basis for the quarter. These are meeting details obtained by the media and cannot yet be considered publicly audited financial statements. Seeing these numbers, it's easy to conclude: AI has finally moved from burning cash to making money. But on the other hand, confidential IPO documents reviewed earlier by Reuters show the company has at least $518 billion in commitments for computing power and infrastructure spending over about ten years. What I want to understand more is: can the money customers pay in outpace the money the company promises to pay out? This issue concerns not only one company's IPO but also how we understand the entire AI industry chain's excitement. 02 $16.8 billion is important, but don't rush to multiply it into the future. $16.8 billion is quarterly revenue, not an annualized run rate derived from a single month's income, nor is it profit already in hand. For AI business observation, this is a significant distinction. It means discussions can finally focus more on paid demand: some are willing to pay for model capabilities. But this revenue report card still doesn't answer how long customers have used the service, or the priceAre shorts becoming fuel again? (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
The harshest thing about this market isn't the drop, but the way it punishes stubbornness. Just when you accept the downtrend, the shorts get lifted; the more it falls, the braver the shorts get, and just after adding positions, the rebound knocks on the door.
Midday liquidation: 1H 5.6 million, shorts 76%; 4H 20.19 million, shorts 71%; 24H BTC 32.85 million, shorts 78.7%, ETH 63.5%. This isn't ordinary stop-loss, it's a chain short squeeze: price bounces → shorts cover → buying pushes price up → next batch forced liquidations, cycle accelerates (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
But don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. ETF weekly net outflow is 679 million, ETH outflow 542 million; Coinbase premium once turned negative, indicating spot buying didn't keep up, more passive derivative covering. Korean stocks fell 5.5%, CPI is at the door, volatility will only get crazier (｡•́︿•̀｡).
Now just watch the pullback: BTC 81300–82000 (400-day moving average) must hold; ETH 2480–2495, especially 2494 cannot be lost. Only if someone steps in is it real buying; if no one steps in, it's just a false fire. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ##奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Sister U 10.15 Thursday $ETH Strategy
Entry conditions: Rebound rises back to the 2440-2460 range, 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow after a spike, rebound momentum gradually weakens, confirm stagnation before attempting short.
Stop loss position: Price effectively holds above 2480, bulls strongly counterattack, abandon short strategy and exit.
First take profit target: 2400
Second take profit target: 2350
Market logic: Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, Ethereum quickly plunged from the short-term high of 2529, bottoming near 2401, with a sharper decline compared to BTC. After the concentrated release of bearish power, it is currently consolidating sideways at a low level between 2420-2440, the market turning from strong to weak, in a phase of shock digestion after a big drop. The short-term overall strategy is mainly high short positions with some low buy-ins. Prioritize shorting rebounds at resistance zones to bet on a second dip, do not pre-place short orders early, wait for confirmation of stagnation candlesticks before entering to avoid short-term false breakouts and stop-loss sweeps.US September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, overall in line with expectations; the real surprise is the core CPI, month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected and rising for three consecutive months — inflation excluding oil prices is still climbing.
There are three driving layers: energy is the strongest, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the increase, due to US-Iran conflict, Brent crude surpassing $100, and diesel prices hitting record highs;
Food is stable for now, but high diesel costs are transmitting, Pepsi has already raised prices; the most troublesome is the spread of core price increases, with housing, medical care, leisure, transportation, used cars, and IT goods all accelerating month-on-month, only communications declined.
Market: The US dollar index rose to 102.53, a new 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday and closed at 5.188%; the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% for six consecutive days, Apple rose 0.5% against the trend to become the second $5 trillion company;
Gold fell below $4100, silver dropped more than 6%. Asia-Pacific under pressure, Hang Seng Index opened down 0.8%, Hang Seng Tech fell 2.21%.
Policy: The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, but Federal Reserve officials generally say they are not in a hurry to act — long-term rates have exceeded 5%, the dollar broke 102.
Financial conditions have already tightened, and September nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, with the previous value revised down by 60,000. The mainstream expectation: no change in October, another 25 basis points hike in December.
The key is to watch Wash’s speech in Bangkok on Thursday evening (the last window before the blackout period), September PCE and oil prices. Conclusion: data changes the pace, not the direction, the decisive factor remains oil prices. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
This morning's abnormal market movement of “gold rising, crude oil falling” can be summed up in one sentence: the market was scared by last night's US inflation data and the early morning crash of the Japanese and Korean stock markets. What everyone is now fearing is not "war," but "economic stagflation."
Last night, the US released the latest CPI inflation rate, which surged directly to 3.7%, exceeding everyone's expectations. The market's first reaction was "it's over, the Fed will raise rates again at the end of the month," causing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to soar, crushing gold prices. Gold fell more than 1.5% last night, failing to hold the $4100 level.
But why did gold rebound sharply from around $4080 to above $4140 early this morning?
This morning, the Korean stock market directly hit circuit breakers, and the Japanese stock market plunged over 2000 points. Asian institutional funds fled from chip stocks and tech stocks, and the money that came out had to find a safe place to stay. Naturally, gold, which had just fallen into a pit last night, became the first choice.
The panic from last night's rate hike has already been vented. After gold broke below $4100, long-term allocation funds and central bank buying considered the price appropriate and directly entered the market to support the price.
Prices are still rising, but high interest rates are hammering tech stocks and the real economy mercilessly. In this stagflation environment of "high prices, poor economy," stocks and industrial goods both get hit, and only gold serves as the best bulletproof vest.$SOXL has dropped to 105, but I believe the semiconductor downturn is far from over!!!
SOXL fell from 158.91 all the way down to around 105, a significant drop, but I still remain bearish through Friday.
What truly solidifies my bearish stance is not how much the price has fallen, but that the positive catalysts simply can't hold!
ASML has already signaled strong AI equipment demand, which should theoretically bring buying interest to semiconductors, yet the entire sector continues to be sold off. This shows the market is simply unwilling to continue paying the previous valuations for AI's high growth. After CPI exceeded expectations, this pressure has become even more evident.
Even if TSMC delivers strong earnings next, I don't think it will reverse the situation. The market already expects it to be strong; merely proving AI orders are sufficient is no longer enough.
Personally, I clearly remain bearish, expecting SOXL to close around 97–103 on Friday, focusing on whether there is genuine support near 100 after breaking 105.
Even if it rebounds to 114–118 on Thursday on TSMC news, as long as NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and equipment stocks don't have sustained buying, I still consider that a rebound, not a reversal.
Only if TSMC significantly exceeds expectations, PPI eases, major semiconductor weights regain sustained support, and SOXL holds above 120.83 and further recovers 127.57, will I change my bearish view.
Until then, I remain firmly on the short side!My judgment: The bottom of this round may have already passed.
$BTC is like this, and altcoins are the same.
For me, a pullback is no longer something to fear, but a time to seriously consider positioning.
Of course, this is just a personal opinion, not a definitive conclusion.
$BTC 84000 just touched and was pushed back down; once the CPI came out, it directly dropped below 82000.
September core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, expected 0.2%; overall year-on-year was 3.7%, also higher than expected. Just this 0.1 difference pushed the probability of a rate hike at the end of October from around 20% to over 40%. Interest rates are still going up, and BTC, which yields no interest, is the first to get hit. Around the US stock market close, it hovered near 81800, ETH looked even worse, around 2430, down just over 3%.
To be clear, this wave isn’t caused by issues within the crypto circle itself, but by macroeconomic pressure holding it down. On October 7 and 8, spot ETFs saw outflows of over 700 million USD in two days, and only 170 million USD flowed back on the 13th; institutions haven’t caught their breath yet.
I think 80,000 is the critical point this round. The spike on October 8 reached near 80300 but was pulled back; most long positions’ stop losses are likely stacked below. If it holds, it will probably continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 87,000; if it breaks down with volume, the 75,000 area is not impossible. Resistance lies between 83,000 and 87,000, which it tried several times at the start of the month but failed to surpass.
Next, watch two things: daily ETF flows and the interest rate meeting on October 27-28. If officials come out hawkish before the meeting, don’t expect a decent rebound.
Be cautious with leverage; just a few days ago, over 1.1 billion USD was liquidated in one day. $BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 September CPI released, with core inflation exceeding expectations: core month-on-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than the expected 3.6%. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have finally started to flow back in; on 10/13, Bitcoin inflow was $176 million, Ethereum inflow was $24.8 million, and Ethereum ended a 10-day streak of net outflows. It is still feasible to buy at the bottom, which means that even if the correction continues, the depth will be limited, and the probability of returning to a bear market is relatively low. During this decline, contract positions increased, indicating that short positions are still being opened, so the correction may not be over. If you want to buy, buying between 75-80k is better, which also falls within the normal correction range of a bull market.
Next, watch two time points: tonight at 20:30 retail sales and PPI (Producer Price Index, consensus month-on-month about +0.5%) will be released; tomorrow morning at 11:30, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will have a public dialogue at the IMF annual meeting, which is an important statement before the FOMC. If retail sales and PPI are also on the hot side, BTC pressure will continue.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is about 54%, and the probability of at least one hike before December exceeds 95%. Crude oil rose 9.1% in a single month, and all costs are rising, so as long as oil does not fall, crypto and US stocks will not easily rise directly. $BTC $ETH $SOL There is an interesting pattern between the $BTC bear market bottom and the US midterm elections:
2014: 71 days after the election
2018: 39 days after the election
2022: 13 days after the election
Each cycle is about twenty to thirty days faster than the previous one.
The 2026 midterm election is in 3 weeks. If this pace continues, the $BTC bottom will occur before the election, not after.
This is just a projection, not a conclusion. But if it comes true, we won't have to wait until after the election to "reduce risk"; the trend might continue to rise directly.
$BTC TSMC released its earnings report today, but the stock fell 2% in pre-market trading.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already known last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
The problem is the unfavorable macro environment. CPI just exploded last night, and tonight there are PPI and retail data coming out. At times like this, even if the earnings numbers look good, if the overall market keeps falling, TSMC won't be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a ±5% volatility after earnings, but the average of the past four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — even if revenue hits a record high, if the guidance is a bit soft, the stock will still be hammered.
Also, look at the recent trend: the stock fell 12% before the earnings, as if someone ran early.
I bet that when the earnings come out tonight, TSMC will fall instead of rise. Good revenue is already priced in; what everyone fears is the gross margin and next year's guidance.
If you disagree, come argue.Today's market has a special feature: it's not just one type of asset falling, but assets of different attributes all dropping together.
Within half an hour, silver plunged nearly 5%, platinum fell 2.61%, gold dropped 1.81%, Bitcoin retreated 1.45%, and palladium declined 1.35%.
Usually, gold and Bitcoin do not move in sync, but this time they both weakened together, indicating that the motivation of funds may not be bearish on a specific asset, but rather a rush to hold cash. This "sell everything" state is common during phases of leverage contraction and tightening liquidity.
Of course, half an hour of data is not enough to draw conclusions. What really needs to be observed is whether trading volume has increased and whether volatility can stabilize in a short time.Core 官方（Core DAO）主动撤出自己的验证节点，分两种完全不同的解读，要看是主动下线退出验证集合，还是只是临时停机。 一、最理想的解读：去中心化（利好叙事） Core 网络总共只有 16个活跃验证节点。 - 基金会把自己运营的官方验证节点主动退出，不再霸占验证席位，把出块资格交给社区第三方验证者。 - 代表项目方不再把持网络控制权，弱化基金会对链的掌控，符合公链去中心化的目标。 - 属于很多公链后期的常规操作，本身不代表链要跑路。 但这里有个关键点： 虽然官方节点退出，但如果大量质押委托仍然集中在少数头部验证人手里，网络依旧高度中心化，只是控制权从项目方转移给了少数大户。 二、需要警惕的负面信号（市场最关心） 如果是在没有提前公告的情况下，核心官方验证节点突然退出，一般会被市场解读为下面这些问题。 1. 项目方运维收缩、预算缩减 运行验证节点需要持续服务器、运维人力成本。 - 币价持续低迷、生态收入不及预期，团队缩减开支，不再承担验证节点成本。 - 说明项目方已经不愿意持续投入维护这条链，属于基本面转弱信号。 2. 团队信心不足 项表面在狂欢，底下却在悄悄换骨头。 你真的看懂今晚是谁在买单了吗？ CPI 一出来我就愣住了。9月同比3.7%，核心环比0.3%，两个都比预期高。数据落地那五分钟，BTC直接砸到82731。24小时全网爆仓74亿美金，8.3万人被埋。朋友圈一半在哭，一半在笑。 但我盯着衍生品盘口看了一会儿，发现事情没那么简单。这波不是单纯的消息面杀跌，是杠杆结构太挤了。多头仓位堆得太满，CPI只是那根针。真正被交易的，是降息预期往后挪，以及加息概率跳到47%这个数字。市场在重新定价风险偏好，不是在定价通胀本身。 我自己挂了三笔空单，运气好都还活着。 - BTC空单，83111.9进，标记81853.09，回报率31.5%。跌破82000之后我设了保本防守。这里我想说的是，空头逻辑还没走完，但节奏开始变钝了。 - XRP空单，1.4167进，标记1.3304。日内爆仓6.1亿美金创了纪录，从1.55一路滑到1.33。这个位置我已经在想要不要止盈了。 - DOGE空单，0.08828进，标记0.08213。从0.096下来，吃了130个点，感觉可以收了。 三笔浮盈加起来1667U。说不心动是假的，手指已经放#Lumentum optical communication business expansion, order performance to be revealed One-sentence summary: In the BTCFi and native Bitcoin staking sector, this project is "highly recognized by institutions, has strong technical reputation, but faces significant controversy among retail investors regarding the BABY token." It is a typical infrastructure project, not a speculative meme coin. ✅Positive reputation (institutions, BTC OGs, mainstream technical community views) 1. High recognition of technical approach Biggest plus: BTC does not require cross-chain bridges or wrapping into WBTC; it remains staked on Bitcoin L1 Taproot script, eliminating cross-chain bridge risks. The design shifts penalty risks to the FP (finality provider), so ordinary stakers' BTC is unlikely to be penalized. This design is widely accepted by Bitcoin native advocates. Aave's founder publicly endorsed its TBV (trustless Bitcoin vault) solution, considering it an important breakthrough in BTC DeFi; top-tier investors like Paradigm, a16z, and Polychain continue to invest, licensed custodians such as Anchorage, Hex Trust, and Kraken have integrated it, and the institutional community regards it as the leading infrastructure for BTC re-staking. 2. Reliable team, transparent disclosure, stable roadmap The founder has a cryptography background and prioritizes research papers before token issuance; regular AMAs and quarterly reports are held, audit reports are public, with minimal unrealistic promises or frequent rule changes and arbitrary token inflation. The project holds a solid first-mover position in the sector, being the largest by TVL in native BTC staking, with liquid staking projects like Lombard also relying on it CPI Night Review: Three Coins Each Going Their Own Way
CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, and the market initially dropped in respect. $BTC slid from 83600 to 81888, closing down 1.85%. About $300 million was liquidated across the network, with 170,000 positions wiped out. Fortunately, there was support around 81000, preventing further collapse. Next is to observe whether this is a rebound after all the bad news or a continuation of the downtrend.
$ENA was the worst hit. The yield protocol suffered liquidity withdrawal, with the price dropping from 0.21 to 0.19786, a decline of 5.58%. PIMCO stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield could hit 6%, raising risk-free returns and reducing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. Under the shadow of rate hikes, this type of coin is being suppressed.
$HYPE barely moved. While the market fell 3%–5%, it only dropped 0.3%, closing at 80.631. Previously, it fell from 85 to 81, with floating supply already cleaned out; plus, 97% of revenue is used for buybacks, and there is defense around the 80 level, making its trend appear resilient.
One night, different fates. Macro data changed capital preferences: risk assets are under pressure, yield narratives are challenged, while those that cleared early and have buyback support remain stable for now. Going forward, watch if BTC can hold 81000 and whether ENA will continue to be suppressed by US Treasury yields.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI lands, core inflation doesn't drop, rate hikes are back!!
As soon as the US September CPI was released, the market got half chilled: overall year-on-year at 3.7% can still be blamed on gasoline, but the core month-on-month at 0.3% and year-on-year rising from 2.4% to 2.6% indicate that the "expensiveness" has seeped from the gas tank into rent and services — this kind of stickiness won't just blow away with the wind.
Rate hike expectations flipped directly: the probability of a hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and even a 50bp hike in December has a 40% chance. US 5-year Treasury yields broke 5.12%, 10-year yields stood above 5.30%, reminiscent of post-2007 levels. The crypto market is the most honest: BTC dipped slightly by 1.92%, while altcoins like AAVE and ONDO, which rely on liquidity, dropped 4%-5% — money is fleeing, but not chaotically; it’s cutting high beta first and keeping the core.
Don't be fooled into a false sense of security by the "data landing." Next, only watch two things: PPI and the FOMC at the end of October. Don't get overconfident and heavily invested in between; if BTC daily closes above 81,000, first reduce ETH, DeFi, and AI narratives, don't get emotionally attached to stories. If rate hikes are eased by PPI, the expectation pullback is the bull window; a truly strong signal is a daily close above 84,146 — then it’s not too late to talk about greed.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #EarningsWatch: Recap and Outlook TSMC ($TSM / 2330, Xiao Luo's commentary
Fundamentals: AI demand (Nvidia/ASIC/CoWoS advanced packaging) remains strong. Q3 revenue has been announced at about NT$1.494 trillion (approximately $46.7 billion), exceeding the upper end of guidance and setting a record, with a year-over-year increase of about 50%. The market expects Q3 net profit to grow about 65% year-over-year to around NT$746 billion, with gross margin likely in the 65-67% range or slightly higher. Full-year USD revenue growth is expected to be revised up to the mid-40% range or even higher. The ramp-up of 2nm and expansion of advanced packaging remain core highlights, but high capital expenditures (about $60-64 billion in 2026) and overseas plant costs diluting gross margin need attention.
Technical aspects and price levels (mainly based on US ADR TSM):
Recently, the price retreated from the early October high near 487, closing around 430 on October 14 (down over 3%), affected by adjustments in US tech stocks, CPI exceeding expectations, and profit-taking ahead of the earnings call. The short-term trend is weak, with prices falling below some short-term moving averages.
- Key support: 428-420 (recent lows/psychological levels), further support at 415, and the 410-400 range (mid-term support).
- Key resistance: 440-445 (short-term pressure), 450-460, and near the previous high of 487.
- Operational watch: The earnings call guidance (Q4 sequential revenue growth, full-year growth, gross margin, and capital expenditures) is key to determining direction.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The man holding 848,000 Bitcoins has spoken: The bear market is over, target 100,000
The founder of Strategy, the publicly listed company holding the most Bitcoin globally, Seller, gave two judgments in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday:
First, this bear market has ended. The bottom was below $60,000 and has already rebounded from there. Second, Bitcoin will soon return to six figures, "definitely should exceed $100,000." In the coming years, it will rise 20%-30% annually.
Anyone can shout bullish, but look at his real cash position:
Strategy currently holds 848,250 BTC, worth about $64 billion, with an average cost of $75,444. Just last week, they added 250 BTC at an average price of $86,194.
Note this detail: his cost line is $75,444, meaning that at the deepest point of this decline, [the largest Bitcoin institutional holding in the world was also at an unrealized loss]. He didn’t cut losses and kept buying.
But don’t just see the "bullish shouting." In the same interview, Strategy spent $190 million buying back its own shares, which is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. To translate: [The big players are extremely bullish verbally, but are balancing cash flow in hand.] This is the real-world institutional operation—faith is faith, risk control is risk control.
It reminds me of something CZ said a few days ago: "My predictions are only right slightly more than 50% of the time because I’m always bullish." Even CZ admits predictions are unreliable. So for big players’ views, listening halfway is enough: [You can refer to the direction, but you must manage your own position.] #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 操Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Whale) Classification Criteria (Market General Standard) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million~10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million~100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥ 100 million DOGE (can clearly drive market trends) - 🦑 Super Whale: ≥ 1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Token Situation According to Santiment: There are about 140 wallets holding 100 million DOGE ≥, and these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with token concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key pitfall: The top spot on the rich list isn't a big player, but Robinhood's custodial cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, about 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains hundreds of thousands of retail investors' tokens, not just one person's; Second place is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, which are user asset custodians, not private whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% DOGE was split at the end of 2021 and is no longer a single whale. Features (compared to BTC/ETH whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity. A truly private whale makes a large transfer or dumping the market, causing much more volatility than BTC or ETH, which easily triggers crash sentiment and triggers chain liquidations. 2. Highly concentrated chips: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating marketMainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses with ≥1000 BTC as BTC whales (whales) - Latest statistics: 2044 addresses with ≥1000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of the circulating supply But! Address ≠ real independent person/institution, this is the easiest pitfall: It includes: exchange cold wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all individual large holders. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, but they actually belong to the same institution. More detailed stratification (another classification standard) - Sharks: 1000–5000 BTC - Whales: 5000–10000 BTC (narrow sense of whale) ≈100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): >10000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses, including MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, large custodians in this category Two key misconceptions 1. It is impossible to accurately know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; one wallet may also hold funds from many users (exchanges), on-chain can only count addresses, cannot distinguish the underlying entities. 2. Different platforms have different thresholds: some media are more lenient and call ≥100 BTC large holders, which increases the number to nearly 20,000 addresses, these should not be confused. Simple one-sentence summary According to the most commonly used standard in the circle 1 $BTC showed resilience against decline in last night's CPI, quite strong
1. The US stock market last night was basically a bloodbath, with the Nasdaq down 2%, and Bitcoin only down 2%, possibly because US Treasury yields fell, offsetting negative and positive factors
2. The bearish momentum on BTC's daily and 3-day charts has not weakened, but the overall price drop is small, continuing a wide-range consolidation. I judge this more as an accumulation phase, consistent with a correction before the main upward wave starts, completed through amplitude/time
3. BTC buy orders remain very strong, supporting this price drop. Large whales are buying between 78k-81k. I know many are waiting for a big drop, but that's unrealistic unless a black swan event occurs to break through the main cost zones at 75-65-60
4. Exchange BTC historical balances hit new lows, and the chips accumulated around 80k are also at new highs (to my memory). Please follow the main force to accumulate chips
5. When it dropped to 812, retail investors started chasing longs. I speculate the main force will shake out this wave of bulls before moving higher
6. Spot plan: There are 2 weeks and 2 days left this month, October is a discount month, continue to expand crypto positions in $BTC, $IBIT spot, $MSTR and $CRCL, as well as strong altcoins $UNI and $HYPE
7. Contract positions: Took profit on $BTC hedge yesterday. After careful consideration, decided not to hedge anymore, instead placed a long order around 802 to try. The win rate for going long in a bull market will be higher. I will also take profit on $UNI hedge positions when the opportunity arises $BTC Big Brother Maji's positions freshly released! BTC short positions are making more and more profit, but HYPE short positions are still under pressure
Just dug up Big Brother Maji's perpetual positions, still the usual combo: BTC short, ETH long, HYPE short, with the account fluctuating clearly with the market.
Breaking it down simply for everyone:
✅ BTC short 40x full position
Shorted 243.96 BTC, position nearly 19.94 million U
Opened at 84070, currently floating profit 568,700 U, funding fee earned 64,100 U
Margin 498,500 U, liquidation price at 104380
✅ ETH long 25x full position
Holding 7222.28 ETH, position 17.43 million U
Opened at 2541.45, currently floating loss 922,700 U, funding fee still negative
Margin 697,300 U, liquidation price 1623.5
✅ HYPE short 5x full position
Shorted 268,300 HYPE, position a full 21.68 million U
Opened near 66.24, currently floating loss nearly 3.91 million U, fortunately funding fee income of 1.042 million U offsets some
Margin 4.3363 million U, liquidation price 99.76
Can only say hedging positions are like fire and ice, making gains on one side while taking hits on the other. $BTC 🌅 Morning Five Group: BTC 81000, ETH 2437, SOL 104, OKB turns green, RE stays flat
$BTC 81888, down 1.85 points 📉
CPI 3.7% beats expectations, dropped from 83600 to 81888. Network-wide liquidations hit 300 million, 170,000 people wiped out. But 81000 has support; after the bad news is fully priced in, let's see if it can bounce back.
$ETH 2437, down 3.09 points ⚡
ETH fell harder than BTC, with higher leverage. That whale with 15 consecutive wins opened a 60 million ETH long at 2437, betting the bad news is over.
$SOL 104.58, down 2.63 points 🔷
SOL dropped from 107 to 104, high beta taking the brunt on CPI night. Big players have been moving funds from SOL to BTC, accelerating today.
$OKB 124.87, up 3.04 points 🟢
The only green in the market, funds are seeking refuge in platform tokens.
$RE 0.42230, down 1.17 points 😴
Small RWA continues sideways.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ Three Coins, Three Questions: What Really Drives Demand for $DOGE , $WLD , and $RENDER ? For $DOGE, the key question is how much genuine buying demand remains after the hype fades. Around 5 billion new DOGE are issued annually, meaning the total supply continues to grow, even as the annual issuance becomes a smaller percentage of the expanding supply over time. This does not automatically mean the price will fall, but it does create a continuing supply challenge. When evaluating payment adoption$ETH VanEck withdraws the S-1 filing for the Lido staked Ethereum ETF❗
Key distinction: the withdrawal is for the stETH ETF with staking rewards, not the regular ETH spot ETF.
The SEC has huge controversy over the securities classification of staking rewards, and institutions judge it unlikely to be approved in the short term, choosing to proactively abandon it. Regulatory thresholds for staking-based ETH products are much higher than for spot products.$ETH Tonight's CPI completely stunned the market, a definite one-shot knockout!
BTC is fighting a life-or-death battle at the 80,000 level, and ETH was the first to give in and just lie flat.
Remember one crucial data point: Core CPI at 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%.
This single number directly rewrites the entire market trend tonight.
As soon as the data came out, the whole market collectively plunged!
US Treasury yields surged instantly, with the 10-year jumping from 5.19 to 5.27.
BTC fell 1.2% accordingly, gold dropped 1%, and Nasdaq futures also plunged 0.8%.
Previously, only crypto and gold were falling,
but tonight even the US stock market couldn't hold up!
The market finally realizes: inflation can't be contained, and the Fed might continue raising rates.
Before the CPI release, BTC was hovering around 83,700, and ETH was weakly consolidating near 2,500, already very weak.
Once the negative news hit, prices dropped accordingly, and the bearish signals are fully exposed.
Honestly, the situation is very clear now:
If interest rates don't turn downward, BTC has no strength to rally.
Currently, watch for support at 81,500 below; if that doesn't hold, further consolidation is expected.
ETH's structure is weak by itself, and altcoins are collectively bleeding, with no profit potential.
Tonight, I'm strictly controlling myself from reckless trading.
Data never lies; losing money is always due to one's own wishful thinking.
When the market is weak, staying out and observing is the safest trade! $ETH Last night, the US September CPI was released: year-on-year 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The market pricing for the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October jumped the probability of a rate hike from about 20% directly to 33%. The key is not the numbers themselves, but the narrative has changed — the discussion is no longer about "when to cut rates," but rather "whether to raise rates once more."
Bitcoin was pushed back near 81,700, and Ethereum fell even harder. In the short term, focus on two levels: if 79,140 holds, it can be considered a low-volume bottoming; if 84,040 is broken with volume, the rebound is confirmed. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million; institutions did not catch the falling knife this round, and large funds are also waiting for direction.
Which scenario do you lean towards: holding at 79,000 to bottom out, or first testing the lower 75,900? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Data is as of today and does not constitute investment advice. 📉$ETH ETF has had continuous outflows for 9 days, totaling 540 million in one week, but what I care about most is not this number
First, the numbers: The US spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about 697 million USD. The outflow for the week ending October 9 was 542 million, the largest weekly outflow since late January.
The headline sounds alarming. I reviewed the details and found three things more worth mentioning than the total amount.
First, this week's outflow was dominated by BlackRock's ETHA, accounting for 477 million, nearly 90%.
It looks more like a large investor adjusting their portfolio, not the entire market running together. ETHA's cumulative net inflow is still around 12.9 billion, and this redemption is just a small part of it.
Second, the downside ⚠️
On October 7, all funds had net outflows, with no inflows at all. The amount was smaller than the previous day, but more funds had outflows. Looking only at the amount might suggest pressure is easing, but I actually dislike this detail.
Third, the funds are not leaving crypto; they are concentrating into BTC.
On October 6, ETH ETF outflowed 200 million, while on the same day BTC ETF inflowed 119 million. Big money is choosing sides, picking the "harder" one. This is unfavorable for ETH and altcoins. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 CPI bearish news has landed, selling pressure remains: BTC, ETH, SOL, I continue to be bearish in the short term.
Last night, the US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, both higher than expected. Inflation is rising, rate hike concerns are heating up, adding another layer of pressure to the crypto rebound.
My current personal view:
BTC｜Institutions buying, but selling hasn't stopped
Spot net outflow of $331 million
Futures net outflow of $659 million
Strive disclosed yesterday that it spent $235 million to buy a total of 2,822 BTC. The increase is positive, but active selling in spot and futures still dominates, so I remain cautious about the rebound.
ETH｜Futures warming up, spot not keeping up
Spot net outflow of $421 million
Futures net outflow of $1.018 billion
On the 13th, ETF net inflow was $24.8 million; on the 14th, partial disclosures show a tentative net outflow of $19.7 million. In the last 4 hours, futures net inflow was $123 million, spot still net outflow of $40.73 million, the rebound lacks spot support.
SOL｜Some support, no chasing the rally for now
Spot net inflow of $9.84 million
Futures net outflow of $7.73 million
Alpenglow plans to launch its mainnet on the 21st, spot buying is relatively stronger, we need to see if it can sustain.
I continue to lean bearish in the short term, mainly due to macro pressure and persistent spot selling pressure on BTC and ETH. If buying strength continues to improve later, I will adjust my view and not stubbornly open shorts.Last night's CPI surprise hammered the market down. Core CPI was pushed up to 2.6% by oil prices, and US Treasury yields jumped in response, scaring away the funds.
Fortunately, $BTC had big players buying in, so it fell the least; but $ETH had no buying support and dropped badly; $SOL was even worse due to leveraged liquidations.
1. BTC on-chain whales hold 3.03 million coins. After the CPI release, some on-chain buyers scooped up several thousand BTC. The strong support at 82,000 was broken, but the dominance climbed to 59.8%, indicating that market money is clearly fleeing to BTC.
2. ETH fell the hardest this week, with its ETF seeing net outflows for nine consecutive days. The CPI was the last straw, scaring away two whales and pushing the coin price down 4%, effectively exposing the lack of buying support.
3. SOL was the worst hit last night because it lacks a spot base. The gains driven by leverage were shattered by the CPI shock, with 89% of liquidations being longs. Moreover, Nasdaq's treasury company had previously cut 1 million holdings, adding to the selling pressure.
Under these circumstances, it is recommended that everyone prioritize holding BTC! #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Today's core judgment The main theme today is very clear: U.S. inflation is accelerating again, pushing back the market's previously expected rapid easing. September CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month; the Fed's Beige Book also shows the economy is still growing, with persistent price pressures on businesses. However, crypto ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) have not continued to deteriorate in sync. On October 13, BTC saw a significant net inflow, ETH ended a streak of 10 consecutive trading days of outflows, with only SOL remaining weak. My judgment is: Macro pressure is clearly rising, but institutional funds have begun to diverge, so BTC, ETH, and SOL can no longer be uniformly understood as institutions withdrawing simultaneously. For OKB, Exchange OS (Exchange Operating System) entering spot and perpetual validation is an important product-level advancement, but value capture has yet to materialize. 1. ETF funds: BTC returning, ETH stabilizing, SOL still weak The latest complete data is still from October 13: BTC net inflow about $176 million, the most obvious capital return; ETH net inflow $24.8 million, ending 10 consecutive trading days of outflows; SOL net outflow about $1 million, still weak. The current structure has shifted from "three asset classes flowing out simultaneously" to BTC significantly improving, ETH initially stabilizing, and SOL continuing to lag. A single day turning positive does not yet prove institutions are continuously increasing positions again, but at least it shows ETF funds have not continued to deteriorate overall. 2. U.S. CPI: Inflation re-【$SOL is about to make a big move, so why isn't the market responding?】
Solana has finally set the Alpenglow mainnet launch date: October 21. The goal is to reduce the transaction finalization time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of nearly 99%. This involves directly replacing the TowerBFT consensus mechanism that has been used for years.
The awkward part is that despite the upgrade news, SOL has not been able to break into a strong rally. Around October 14, SOL hovered near $107, dropping about 9% over nearly 7 days, and the US spot SOL ETF also saw capital outflows. The technical upgrade is significant, but buying interest has not kept pace.
What deserves the most attention is whether the new mechanism can truly benefit payments, DeFi, and on-chain transactions. A 150-millisecond confirmation time is indeed attractive for high-frequency trading and payment settlements, but performance improvements do not equate to a surge in fee revenue, nor do they guarantee an immediate rise in SOL price.
There is also a pitfall: after the upgrade, validator vote transactions will be moved out of blocks, which may cause a noticeable drop in on-chain transaction counts. We should be careful not to misinterpret this data decline as a sign of ecosystem cooling.
This upgrade is a long-term fundamental positive, but in the short term, it still lacks capital confirmation. If spot buying of SOL warms up and capital continues to flow in before and after the upgrade, the market may have a chance to follow through; otherwise, no matter how impressive the technical upgrade is, it might just be a story the market has already priced in.Conclusion first: The first wave can be held, but today it is already very close to $80K, which is a position that must be closely watched. BTC fell from $83,445 yesterday to a low of $81,453, closing at $81,678, a single-day drop of -2.13%, with a trading volume of $516 million. This drop is due to CPI—US September CPI exceeded expectations, interest rate expectations tightened again, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. But BTC only fell 2.1%, making it the most resilient among mainstream coins. Look at the structure. Spot price is $81,678, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $2.572 billion; funding rate is +0.00386%, slightly positive. Price down with slightly positive funding rate indicates leveraged longs have not massively exited, but it’s not crowded either. Structure is neutral. Look at the position. Currently at $81,678, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($82,758), but remains above the 60-day moving average ($80,041). The 14-day high is $87,238, and the 14-day low is $80,400. That means $80K-$80.4K is its recent defensive line—this is both the 60-day moving average and the 14-day low, a double support. Market cap is $1.64 trillion, ranked number 1. On-chain MVRV Z-Score remains in the neutral to low range, not overvalued at the top, providing mid-term support. But short-term moving averages have broken, direction depends on macro factors. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below $80K, watch #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
Yesterday, the US CPI returned to 3.7%.
The market is once again worried that the days of tight money and high interest rates may last longer than expected.
📊 US September data released on October 14: More noteworthy is the core month-on-month: 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, unchanged from last month. It excludes food and energy, meaning the pressure cannot be explained by oil prices alone.
🧮 For US tech stocks, the first impact is on valuations.
The more a company relies on future profits, the more it fears sustained high interest rates: the same future earnings are worth less when discounted to today.
🏭 There is also financing pressure. AI business revenue can grow, but expanding data centers and purchasing computing power require capital. Rising financing costs will raise the investment return threshold.
⚖️ Therefore, I pay more attention to whether profits and cash flow can be realized.
💰 For cryptocurrencies, funding conditions are equally important.
Higher interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; when risk appetite declines, crypto assets may also be sold off.
⚠️ If price drops trigger leveraged long liquidations, forced selling could amplify volatility. But this is just a transmission mechanism.
🔮 Will interest rates continue to rise afterward? I consider three scenarios:
▪️ Inflation remains high and employment stays strong: the case for further rate hikes strengthens.
▪️ Inflation cools and demand slows: more likely to observe the effects of existing tightening, but a pause does not mean a rate cut.
▪️ High inflation with significantly weakening employment: policy becomes more difficult, and weak data is not necessarily good news for stocks or crypto.