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After today's opening, $SPCX X has been rising all the way, currently reaching a high of 149.5, just a step away from the previous high.
But now there are only three days left until the next wave of unlocking. If it returns to the sweet spot above 150 now, the selling pressure after unlocking could be the greatest.
Because with a rapid price increase, people are reluctant to sell, and with a rapid drop, they are still reluctant to sell...
So actually, this price range is fine for now. Pulling it higher would increase the cost. It's better to move sideways here, wait for the unlocking, then naturally sell off with a slight decline for a while before speculating on the next hot wave. That might be a more suitable approach.
Of course, I personally am very much looking forward to SPCX surging to 160, so that my previously trapped long positions can be completely freed.
$SPCX
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals BTC surged to 65,000 and then quickly pulled back. This time, what we really need to watch is not the rebound itself, but whether "anyone is willing to keep buying."
In this round, BTC pulled back from around $63,000 to above $64,600. On the surface, it looks like a decent recovery, but the 15-minute structure doesn't feel that strong to me.
Last night, the price once rapidly surged to $65,036, then was quickly pushed back. It is now back around 64,600, repeatedly entangled around MA5, MA10, and MA20. The Bollinger Bands have also started to narrow again, indicating that although the previous volume-driven surge changed the short-term rhythm, it hasn't truly opened a new trend space yet.
There is a detail worth noting:
Volume suddenly exploded during the rise, but after breaking through 65,000, there was no sustained volume increase.
This means there is still obvious selling pressure near 65,000. In other words, the previous rise shows the market has the ability to push up, but the subsequent movement hasn't proven that the market is willing to keep absorbing at higher prices.
The funding side shows a similar contradiction.
After about $390 million weekly net outflow from the US spot BTC ETF, the latest round of funds has clearly flowed back; however, the concentration of recent fund replenishment remains high, so the market cannot simply interpret one or two days of inflows as a trend of institutional return. (24/7 Wall St.)
What’s even more concerning is derivatives.
After BTC reclaimed 64,000, the funding rate once rose to about a 20-month high, and derivatives trading activity clearly increased. In other words, the price has just rebounded, but leveraged funds’ sentiment has already run ahead of the price. (Coin Republic)
This is also the core reason why I am currently reluctant to chase longs.
In the short term, I break down the structure into three zones:
64,500—64,600: The first line of support.
The price is currently fighting here repeatedly. If it can hold, BTC still has a chance to retest 64,800—65,000.
65,000—65,100: The true boundary between bulls and bears.
If it breaks through here next time, I will focus more on whether volume can increase synchronously, rather than just seeing if the price spikes through. Without volume, I will still treat it as liquidity clearing within the range.
64,000—64,200: Key defense below.
If 64,500 breaks and the price continues to fall below here, then the rebound structure starting near 63,000 is basically destroyed, and the market will likely look for liquidity lower down.
So the most interesting thing about BTC right now is:
Bears no longer have as much advantage as a few days ago, but bulls have far from confirmed a trend.
ETF funds returning is bullish;
The failure to hold the 65,000 surge is resistance;
Rapidly rising leverage sentiment increases the possibility of short-term shakeouts.
Therefore, I will not define a "bull market restart" just because of one big green candle.
The truly valuable signal is whether BTC can turn 65,000 from resistance into support.
If it can’t, then 64,000—65,000 remains just a consolidation range; if it can break out with volume and hold steadily, then the market can discuss the next phase of the trend.
What do you think? Is this surge to 65,000 followed by a pullback a shakeout, or has it already prematurely exposed real selling pressure above? $BTC Market Snapshot
Bitcoin current price is $64,562.40, up 0.13% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 1.59 percentage points, indicating notable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $65,066.10, the low was $64,039.00, with a trading volume of $259.54M, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 30 assets rose while 74 fell, with rising assets accounting for 28.8%, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
In the Meme/payment sector, focus on $DOGE; trading volume is relatively low, so watch if smart money makes a move.
In the GameFi sector, focus on $AXS; volatility has narrowed, wait for directional choice before acting.
Top 3 gainers are $ACE +46.36%, $PUMP +10.06%, $DOS +6.98%, indicating smart money has already placed their bets.
Top 3 losers are $XSOXL -16.81%, $GALA -14.82%, $XCBRS -14.23%, with profit-taking investors abruptly exiting.
Conclusion: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone, the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; don’t go against smart money.
Market data is sourced from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
That’s all for now, the rest is up to the market. Last night the crypto market didn't crash, $BTC is still hovering above 60,000. But don't rush to call a reversal. It's good that it can't fall further, but it also doesn't show signs of pushing upward. $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $BNB are just dragging along, and the smaller altcoins are even worse off. $OP, $ARB, $MATIC, $DOT are mostly held by people who have been waiting for years to break even. When it pumps a little, some sell a little; without new money coming in, it simply can't be driven up. Strategy recently sold 1,638 $BTC, using the funds to bolster USD reserves and buy back preferred shares. It's not a full exit, but even they are starting to prioritize cash flow. Policy news comes daily, and the Clarity Act is still stuck. Now we just wait for $BTC to choose its own direction. Investing carries risks; enter the market cautiously The sharp drop in the storage sector last night predicted the reaction this morning in South Korea.
Lately, it feels like whenever SK Hynix surges, the Korean market basically experiences an exponential rise.
And a sharp drop in SK Hynix signals an exponential decline in the index.
Both sharp rises and drops trigger program trading halts.
Halts do not stop the decline,
they only temporarily slow down the fall.
This gives retail investors a chance to manually close positions,
and prevents institutions from automatically taking profits or cutting losses through program trading.
Last night, the US stock market's storage sector saw a major pullback,
which basically predicted that Korean investors would again emotionally hammer SK Hynix down today,
so SK Hynix continuing to lead the decline is perfectly normal.
Although I was repeatedly hit by losses in storage stocks before,
yesterday I still mustered the courage to buy Micron back after the first bearish candle.
At that time, I thought Micron was the weakest gainer,
but unexpectedly, it was also the weakest decliner.
But no matter what,
I managed to recover some losses,
$SKHYNIX
I will keep watching today.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk rose more than 8% yesterday, leading the charge in the storage sector.
Why the rise? It's not short-term speculation; the market believes its business model has changed.
Previously, storage chips were cyclical stocks—price hikes and capacity expansions, overcapacity leading to price wars, losses forcing production cuts, a rollercoaster ride. Now SanDisk has signed 8 long-term contracts, including with 3 major US cloud giants, guaranteeing a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, with customers also putting up $16.5 billion in deposits.
The market has directly revalued SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "rental income stock." Its stock price has surged 628% year-to-date.
The logic is simple—the long-term contracts lock in revenue floors for the coming years, turning the volatile hardware business into highly predictable cash flow. JPMorgan set a $2,250 price target, and the market is truly buying in.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year US Treasury yield has soared to 5.31%, the highest since 2007.
The core reason: US debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with annual interest payments of $1.17 trillion, and borrowing continues. New debt auctions have no takers, so yields can only rise.
US-Iran talks have collapsed again, oil prices rose 2%, and inflation expectations followed. Overseas buyers have offloaded $190 billion in US Treasuries, with Japan reducing holdings by over $120 billion.
What does a 5.31% risk-free yield mean? In the stock valuation formula, the denominator grows, putting pressure on all growth stocks. Institutions say, "Why take the risk buying your stock when you can earn over 5% risk-free in US Treasuries?"
Looking at both together is quite contradictory:
SanDisk’s industry logic is rock solid, with long-term contracts locking revenue and buybacks supporting the stock price.
But the macro environment is pressuring—US Treasury yields are so high, global capital costs are rising, and risk appetite is suppressed.
In the short term, SanDisk will likely fluctuate with macro sentiment; in the medium term, as long as the long-term contract logic holds, the fundamentals remain intact.
So holding is fine, be cautious chasing highs, and take profits when appropriate. At this level, oscillation is more likely than a direct surge. BTC, ETH, and XRP have all seen short-term rebounds in recent days, but overall they are still stuck in a tug-of-war at critical levels. The main supports have held for now, but the resistance above remains clear, and the strength of the rebound is not yet convincing.
Bitcoin
Continues to operate within a wide range. Around $60,000 is a major support, while the $66,000-$67,000 area is a clear resistance. The most critical defense zone currently is between $62,000 and $62,200, with the price still above it.
Once it clearly breaks below $62,000, new lows may appear quickly, and the downside risk will significantly increase over the following weeks; conversely, if it can firmly hold above $65,500 again, the currently weak structure will be genuinely weakened.
Ethereum
Is still suppressed near $2,000. Recent resistance is concentrated between $1,940 and $1,970, with support at $1,800-$1,830. Looking further down, $1,500-$1,600 is also an important area.
As long as ETH can sustain above $1,970-$1,980, market expectations will improve significantly, and the next target will shift to $2,130-$2,150, then further up close to $2,400.
XRP
Is relatively the weakest. The weekly trend remains bearish, with the next major support near $0.93. The daily chart is temporarily holding around $1, showing a potential divergence between price and RSI, but it is not confirmed yet.
If a stronger rebound occurs later and it closes higher for several consecutive trading days, this signal may be validated. Even so, any recovery in the next 1-2 weeks will likely still lag behind Bitcoin in overall performance.
The market is still grinding, and volatility is inevitable. At times like this, it is actually more suitable to focus on projects with real progress—such as Dusk. The privacy + compliance RWA path has been advancing steadily recently, the DuskEVM testnet is already open, and institutional-grade financial infrastructure is gradually being implemented. In a choppy market, these kinds of projects with tangible progress deserve more attention. Guys, Xiaomi released its Q2 earnings report after the market closed yesterday. Revenue was 108.9 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but still exceeding 100 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit was 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year plunge of 42.6%, but improved quarter-on-quarter compared to Q1's 6 billion yuan. Net profit was 9.46 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year. Three lines, three states. Phones are taking the hit—volume drops and prices rise, profits are completely siphoned off. Mobile phone revenue was 42.1 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year. Shipments totaled 31.2 million units, a sharp drop of 26.5%. However, ASP soared to 1,351 yuan, up 25.9% year-on-year, setting a new historical high. High-end sales have been achieved—models priced above 3,000 yuan accounted for 32.1% of domestic sales, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year. Gross margin collapsed, falling from 11.5% to 8.5%. The price hike in memory chips has directly eaten up profits. Lu Weibing said that storage will enter a "slow rise" in the second half of the year but remains at a high level—the smartphone sector still has to endure. Cars are carrying the flag—growing the fastest, but still burning money. Revenue from innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles and AI reached 24.9 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, making it Xiaomi's only major business with positive growth. Of this, automotive revenue was 23.9 billion yuan, with 104199 deliveries, up 28.2% year-on-year. The SU7 series has delivered over 500,000 units cumulatively. However, the car's ASP dropped to 229,000 units, down 9.6% year-on-year, and the SU7 Ultra's delivery share declined. Still losing money. This segment's gross margin dropped from 26.4% to 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan. The rhythm of losing money on every car sold hasn't stopped. The annual target was 550,000 units, with about 18.8 million units completed in the first halfThe funding rate has risen today to the highest level in nearly 20 months.
Longs are willing to pay more to maintain their positions — this is a fairly clear directional signal.
BTC is currently priced near 64,600, with 66,300 USD as the mid-term moving average resistance level.
RSI is at 52, above 50, momentum has improved but has not entered the overbought zone. The funding rate has surged ahead of the price, indicating that leveraged longs are already somewhat crowded.
If 66,300 is broken, the current position structure may further amplify upward momentum. If the breakout fails, these high-leverage longs could become the fuel for the next wave of selling pressure.
In the past 24 hours, $120 million worth of leveraged positions across the network have been liquidated, with shorts accounting for over 60% of the liquidations.
The price hasn't risen much, shorts are bleeding, indicating that the bearish bets are already overcrowded. $BTC The SEC's latest rule today clearly classifies Bitcoin as a pure commodity and stablecoins as non-securities.
It is already a market consensus that Bitcoin is recognized as a commodity, but this is the first time the SEC has officially stated it in the rule text.
This is not a statement from an official, but written in the rule text. It also clearly states that stablecoins are non-securities.
What is even more noteworthy is that the SEC has proposed a crypto financing exemption draft, aiming to relax some token issuance registration requirements and set conditional safe harbors.
This means the threshold for compliant token issuance is lowering, but the premise is to comply with disclosure and investor protection rules. The Treasury Department is also advancing public consultations on the "Genius Act" rules, clarifying when stablecoin activities require federal or state licenses.
The regulatory framework is gradually taking shape. It is not through legislation but through administrative actions by the SEC and the Treasury Department. The classification of Bitcoin and stablecoins is now clear, and the compliance path for token issuance is being established. This industry is moving from a "regulatory vacuum" to a "compliance framework"—not through sweeping legislation, but through rulemaking step by step. #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 Miners are experiencing one of the longest "capitulation" cycles in history.
Bitcoin network hashrate has dropped 21% from its historical peak, falling from 1.3 ZH/s to about 900 EH/s.
This is not a one-time cliff drop like the 2021 China ban; it is a structural adjustment where listed mining companies are proactively redeploying hashrate resources to AI infrastructure.
In late March, the estimated loss per mined Bitcoin for listed miners was $19,000. However, the total value of signed AI and high-performance computing contracts has exceeded $70 billion. Hyperscale Data sold about 685 Bitcoins to cash out $43 million, funding data center construction. Core Scientific plans to liquidate almost all of its Bitcoin holdings.
Mining companies with HPC contracts trade at 12.3x enterprise value, while pure Bitcoin miners trade at only 5.9x. The market has already made its choice—capital markets favor renting hashrate to AI companies rather than using it to mine Bitcoin. Miners are selling, hashrate is dropping, AI contracts are being signed; all three trends point to the same conclusion. $BTC Market Analysis: 40-year Japanese Government Bond Yield -1.5bp, reported at 4.190%
⚠️ Information is for informational interpretation only and does not constitute investment advice
Basic Concepts
Government bond yield decline = bond price increase
Basis point bp: 1bp = 0.01%, this time a drop of 1.5 basis points, yield fell from 4.205% to 4.190%
Current Background
The 40-year bond is an ultra-long-term Japanese bond; it recently hit a historical high of 4.215%, and today it slightly retreated, representing a brief pause after the surge. The yield remains at a historically high level.
Two core factors driving the previous rapid yield increase:
1. Japan's large-scale fiscal stimulus plan, with market concerns about long-term bond issuance pressure and debt risk
2. The Bank of Japan's continued exit from easing and the start of a rate hike cycle, pushing up long-term rates
Reasons behind this slight retreat
1. Ultra-long-term bonds at historical highs, some profit-taking by short sellers exiting, with slight buying entering
2. The market has briefly digested fiscal and rate hike panic sentiment
❗Key reminder: The 1.5bp change is very small and can only be considered a short-term pullback; it cannot be directly judged as a long-term peak in rates
Market Spillover Effects
1. Yen: If long-term rates remain high, it will support the yen in the medium to long term; short-term slight retreat temporarily weakens the yen's upward momentum
2. Global bond market: Japan's ultra-long-term rates are an important anchor for global assets; if they surge again, it will force a rise in global overall financing costs.Bitcoin's funding rate has risen to its highest level in nearly 20 months today.
A positive funding rate means that longs are paying shorts to maintain leveraged positions.
Longs are willing to bear higher holding costs, which is a fairly clear directional signal.
However, the price remains stuck near $64,000 and has not yet effectively broken through the mid-term moving average resistance at about $66,300.
The funding rate running ahead of the price to a high level indicates that leveraged longs are already somewhat crowded. If $66,300 is broken, the position structure may further amplify upward momentum. If it fails, this batch of high-leverage longs could become the fuel for the next wave of selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to about 52, above 50, showing some improvement in momentum but not entering the overbought zone. Optimism in the derivatives market has already outpaced the spot price, and now the price needs to validate this judgment. $BTC The SEC is starting to give the crypto industry a "green light."
SEC Chair Atkins directly admitted: the SEC in the past had been "weaponized" against the crypto industry.
Now the tide has completely turned.
The latest crypto regulatory framework begins to address a problem that has troubled the industry for many years:
Can projects legally raise funds before the network actually goes live?
This means that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from "how to shut you down" to "how to help you develop compliantly."
More importantly, Atkins also clearly stated that he hopes the CLARITY Act will eventually be sent to Trump's desk.
I think this is the key point.
If CLARITY is ultimately implemented, the U.S. crypto market may truly enter a phase of "rules, licenses, and capital."
BTC will of course benefit, but I am more optimistic about stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain finance in the future.
The U.S. is not preparing to abandon crypto, but rather to formally integrate crypto into its financial system.
This may be the real big narrative of this cycle.昨晚看了一份68页的文件，SEC和CFTC联合发布的，关于加密资产分类的指引。说实话，这是近几年来我看过最清晰的监管文件。 不是因为它解决了所有问题，而是因为它终于给出了明确的分类标准。 几个重要的信号 第一，BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP、LINK、DOT这些被明确归为“数字商品”，非证券。 这意味着它们不会因为本身的属性而被认定为证券。这不是什么新观点，但监管层以联合指引的形式写下来，影响不一样。 第二，Meme币被归为“数字收藏品”，大部分非证券。 这对市场来说是个好消息。不是因为它给Meme币正名，而是因为它明确了一个事实：一个代币的“严肃性”不决定它的监管属性。Meme币的价值由供需决定，而非他人的管理努力。这个逻辑成立。 第三，稳定币不属于证券（前提是合规发行的支付型稳定币）。 这是GENIUS Act框架下的结论，与之前的监管猜测一致。 最值得关注的变化 “投资合同可以终止”——这是这份指引里我最关注的部分。 核心逻辑是：一个代币在早期通过ICO募资时，因为符合Howey测试而构成证券。但随着项目走向去中心化，发行方的承诺履行完毕，代币功能转向实用，原有的投资合同关系可能⚡Sandisk's sharp plunge! From 1821 down to 1601, this round of correction is merely a profit-taking adjustment, not a collapse of the underlying logic
$SNDK
This significant pullback in Sandisk contains market signals worth every trader's careful analysis.
Since the investor conference concluded, capital has been aggressively speculating on AI storage dividends, NAND supply-demand reversals, and corporate long-term profit revaluation, driving the stock price to soar. On August 17, the stock again surged about 8.9%, but the market quickly turned, with the price dropping from a high of $1821 to an intraday low of $1601. After a violent rally, it is reasonable for profit-taking to concentrate (MarketWatch).
However, most people easily fall into the same trap: seeing a rebound from 1601 to 1620 and hastily concluding the correction is over.
Switching to a 15-minute chart, the bears still firmly control the market.
After breaking below the 1821 high, the price formed a downtrend structure with progressively lower highs and lows; short-term moving averages MA5 around 1616, MA10 about 1614, and MA20 near 1624 continue to exert downward pressure. Although the price quickly rebounded from the 1601 low, it is currently only testing the Bollinger Band middle line at 1624.
The KDJ indicator simultaneously signals momentum, with values rising and the J value breaking above 85, indicating short-term bottom-fishing funds at the 1600 level. But a single momentum recovery rebound does not mean the downtrend has fully reversed.
Next, focus on three key battle zones:
✅ 1600–1615: The first critical defense line
1601 is the intraday emotional low; if this range holds strong support, it means selling pressure is gradually exhausting; if it breaks down effectively, the short term will seek a new equilibrium for chips.
✅ 1640–1650: The first rebound heavy resistance zone
This area is close to the upper Bollinger Band and accumulates many trapped chips from the decline. If it cannot hold this zone, the rally from around 1600 can only be considered an oversold recovery, and bulls have not regained control.
✅ 1690–1700: The watershed to reverse the short-term pattern
The previous key resistance is around 1700.8. Only by reclaiming this territory can the downtrend structure with progressively lower highs on the 15-minute level be officially broken.
Sandisk fundamentally differs from ordinary high-level thematic stocks: the underlying fundamentals supporting the stock price have undergone significant transformation.
The previously released Q3 FY2026 report showed company revenue surged to $5.95 billion, a 251% year-over-year increase; data center business grew by 645% year-over-year. The official Q4 guidance expects revenue between $7.75–8.25 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin maintained at 79%–81% (Sandisk Corporation).
After the investor conference, the market began trading a grander narrative:
Going forward, NAND flash may no longer be a purely cyclical commodity driven by spot prices.
The company plans mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for FY2028 to FY2030, relying on long-term NBM cooperation agreements to lock in customer demand and smooth profit fluctuations. The core of capital's re-pricing of Sandisk is no longer limited to flash price increases but whether AI data center demand can help the NAND industry escape past severe cycles and achieve long-term stable profitability (MarketWatch).
Therefore, when viewing Sandisk, we must separate long-term logic from short-term market action.
I remain optimistic in the mid-to-long term but choose to stay highly cautious in the short term.
A company's fundamental transformation does not mean any price level is suitable for chasing highs.
This rally has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations. Now the market's core question has completely shifted:
Previously, the discussion was whether AI would drive NAND demand;
Now everyone is betting on what valuation this growth story truly justifies.
Two seemingly similar propositions correspond to completely different trading stages.
Based on this, I will not directly define the 1600 area as the bottom of this correction.
If support holds and the price consecutively breaks through the 1650 and 1700 levels, it means capital is willing to absorb chips again; if the 1600 defense fails, even if the AI storage long-term logic remains intact, the stock price will continue downward to digest the previously overextended valuation bubble.
Quality stocks also face inappropriate entry prices; high prices can overshadow even the best fundamentals.
Mature trading always waits for two things to coincide: intact underlying logic and a price offering a cost-effective entry window.
I want to ask all traders: Is SNDK's rapid pullback from 1821 this time just a normal washout clearing profit-taking, or has the market already sensed an overvaluation of NAND prosperity expectations? #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Simply put:
$BNB: Look at certainty
Binance's foundation is the strongest, with a mature ecosystem, making it the "leading asset" among platform tokens. The upward logic is stable, but due to its large scale, its explosive potential is relatively limited.
$OKB: Look at odds
With a fixed total supply of 21M + OKX ecosystem + X Layer, the supply is very scarce. Its biggest advantage is that its market cap is relatively smaller than BNB, so it may have greater bull market elasticity.
$BGB: Look at growth potential
Bitget is growing rapidly, and BGB is continuously expanding into exchange + wallet + on-chain ecosystem. Its advantage is growth potential, but the risk is also higher than BNB.
My simple ranking
Stability: BNB
Elasticity: OKB
Growth: BGB
If I had to pick one for bull market elasticity: OKB.
If seeking stability: BNB.
If betting on the platform's rapid growth in the next few years: BGB. Recently, the GENIUS Act has sparked heated discussions in the community. KYC, anti-money laundering, reserve audits, licenses—many are watching closely, and the first reaction is: Oh, the stablecoin issuers are in trouble this time. But honestly, this perspective is too narrow.
This transformation seems to be about putting rules on USDC, USDT, and other "on-chain cash," but in reality, it’s equipping the big ship of on-chain finance with a "navigation system." The most direct beneficiary, as I see it, is Ethereum. Think about it: stablecoins are the "universal cash" on-chain, and over 90% of transfers and lending happen on Ethereum. Previously, big institutions avoided this "wild" place and didn’t dare to enter aggressively. Now, with compliance licenses in hand, banks and payment giants—the "regular army"—can confidently join. As on-chain settlement volume expands, ETH’s value as the "settlement base" naturally rises.
But there’s no free lunch. Compliance is a double-edged sword: it’s both a tool to clear the path and a "tightening hoop." Going forward, DeFi interactions and RWA issuances will have to operate within regulatory boundaries. ETH’s value is elevated, but the cost is saying goodbye to the past "wild growth" and lawlessness, officially becoming part of standardized financial infrastructure.
Look at Bitcoin; its path is completely different. Compliance stablecoins are essentially digital dollars, solving circulation efficiency issues. But they can’t hedge against risks like dollar credit dilution and mountains of national debt. Here’s the interesting part: the more people use stablecoins, the more "newbies" appear on-chain. Once everyone adapts to digital dollars, they’ll naturally wonder: where is the "hard currency with no issuer, no liabilities, and a fixed supply"? Looking back, Bitcoin is waiting there.
So don’t get it wrong: stablecoins are the "bridge to cross the river," ETH is the "toll collector," and BTC is the "ballast stone" on the other side of the river. They have different roles and none can replace the others. The more compliance spreads, the busier ETH’s business gets; the larger the digital dollar’s footprint, the more people believe in BTC’s "hedging philosophy." This show has only just begun.SK Hynix labor and management have reached a preliminary salary agreement. The specific details such as the raise percentage and bonus plan have not yet been disclosed. The agreement will only take effect after a union vote.
Background Supplement
1. Last year's labor agreement: basic salary increased by 6%, 10% of operating profit allocated as employee bonuses, and the bonus cap was abolished. On average, employees were expected to receive bonuses exceeding 100 million KRW.
2. This year's conflict point: the company proposed issuing part of the bonus in stock, which was strongly opposed by the union, making it the biggest difficulty in the current negotiations.
3. Industry comparison: Samsung Electronics recently also reached a last-minute emergency salary agreement near a strike, indicating overall rising labor cost pressure in South Korea's memory chip manufacturers.
Impact on the Industry Chain
✅ Short term: eliminates the risk of strike-related production stoppage, ensuring stability of SK Hynix HBM and DRAM production capacity
⚠️ Medium to long term: salary increases will raise production costs, which may be passed on to memory chip prices. $BTC $XAU Gold Short Position Review
For this gold short position, my opening logic mainly focused on three points:
First, high resistance 4 hours ago.
Gold had been rising steadily from around 4000, reaching a high of 4452.3. After reaching this level, it did not break through directly; instead, it showed a clear pullback.
Then the price rebounded again to test the previous high but still failed to hold above it.
So in my view, the area around 4450 has formed a relatively clear resistance zone.
After the second failed attempt to push higher, I started considering a short.
Second, EMA10 and EMA20 began to weaken.
As seen on the chart, after gold surged, EMA10 and EMA20 gradually converged, then the price directly broke below both moving averages.
This is a fairly obvious signal for the short term:
Previously it was a pullback within an uptrend,
Now it shows high-level consolidation + moving average breakdown + weak rebound.
Therefore, I did not choose to guess a top directly around 4450 but waited until the structure started to weaken before entering.
Third, high-level consolidation appeared on the 4-hour chart.
After 4452, the price did not continue to make new highs but oscillated repeatedly between 4300 and 4400.
In this situation, what I pay more attention to is:
The upper side cannot break through, and the lower side begins to show signs of breaking down.
So my thought process is:
Resistance confirmed near 4450 → second failed surge → break below EMA10/20 → rebound fails to reclaim moving averages → attempt to short.
Currently, the price has come down to around 4349, and this short position is temporarily profitable.
However, I also want to remind myself:
The long-term gold cycle has not completely turned bearish.
Yesterday’s gold decline was indeed influenced by rising US Treasury yields suppressing non-interest-bearing assets, with spot gold once falling to about $4365.
So I would not define this trade as "gold topping out."
What I am doing is:
A short-term pullback at a high resistance level.
If later it reclaims 4398–4400 or even breaks through 4452 again, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
The most important thing in trading is:
Not that I am bearish on gold, but that I found a position where I can be wrong and still control losses.
This is also the trading style I increasingly prefer:
First find the position, then find the direction, and finally consider opening a position.
What do you think? Is gold topping out at a high and starting a pullback this time, or will it continue to push to 4450 after a 4-hour level shakeout?
Let’s discuss in the comments.- [$COHR] AI optical communication collectively crashed overnight—Anthropic-related reports + WSJ report triggered sell-off, compounded by Fabrinet's earnings miss dragging peers down, COHR -12.8%, CRDO -13%, FN -19.4%, AAOI -14.8%, LITE "good news fully priced in" officially realized
- [$KLAR] Earnings lowered full-year revenue + GMV guidance, CFO also resigned, single day -22.8%—but Affirm and PayPal did not follow down, it's Klarna's own issue
- [$AMLX] GLP-1 drug avexitide late-stage trial success (LUCIDITY), +63.8% hitting best single-day since listing—on the big gain day, reversed to sell $350M secondary offering, diluting at high price
(The above does not constitute investment advice, only market observation records) CEX News reports that the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $298 million on Monday, ending three consecutive days of outflows. BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $160 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had an inflow of $112 million.$BTC
Using the lowest point of the previous BTC bear market as the starting point and the highest point of this bull market as the endpoint, then observing how much the price has retraced downward from the peak relative to the previous rise, in past BTC bear markets, the retracement ultimately reached around 0.786;
In contrast, after the Bitcoin price fell from the bull market peak this time, the deepest retracement only reached around the 0.618 area, not entering the very deep 0.786 retracement zone. Market sentiment may already feel like a major bear market, but judging from the BTC cycle retracement magnitude, the current price damage is clearly weaker than in past typical bear markets. SNDK is extremely imbalanced between longs and shorts, with substantial profit-taking and weakening capital sentiment, indeed posing a "long-on-long" liquidation risk, but directly shorting still requires caution. The current safer approach is to wait for a volume breakout and breakdown signal before entering, or to try shorting with a small position and strict stop loss.
1. Market Structure: Extreme imbalance, crowded longs
- Position structure heavily skewed to longs: The overall network contract long-to-short ratio is about 1.8:1, with longs accounting for approximately 64% and shorts only 36%. The long capital volume is significantly larger than shorts, showing a clear "top-heavy" market structure.
- Massive contract market size: SNDK perpetual contracts have an open interest of up to $1.73 billion, making it one of the largest single-stock perpetual contracts globally, far exceeding other similar assets. This means that once the trend reverses, the scale of liquidations will be considerable, easily triggering a cascade.
- Fundamentals do not match contract scale: The corresponding US stock SanDisk has a market cap of about $243 billion, while the crypto market contract size reaches about 7% of that. This "small pot leverages the big pot" scenario inherently carries very high speculation and fragility.
2. Substantial profit-taking, very high "long-on-long" liquidation risk
- Early longs have rich profits: As early as March, a whale established a long position at an average price of about $630, with unrealized gains exceeding 30% at one point.
- High-level buying still occurred in early August: On August 7, a highly successful whale opened a new long position worth about $4.78 million near $1258.5.
- Long position costs generally low: Overall, many longs have cost bases far below the current price, with huge on-paper profits, and may close positions anytime due to "enough profit," triggering a chain reaction.
- Shorts have limited losses, lacking "counterparty": As you observed, shorts lost only a little over a million, and longs cannot squeeze much from shorts. Under these circumstances, the most likely form of decline is long-on-long liquidation.
3. Market sentiment and capital flow: Turning bearish
- Funding rate turned negative: The SNDK perpetual contract funding rate has shifted to negative. This indicates market sentiment is shifting from extreme optimism to pessimism, with short power quietly strengthening, increasing the cost and risk of long positions.
- Whales start "closing longs and opening shorts": On August 14, a whale closed SNDK long positions and reversed to open 10x leveraged short positions. This is a very clear bearish signal, showing smart money is positioning ahead of a decline.
- Technicals show weakness: Price failed multiple times to break above the $2000 integer level, daily RSI once exceeded 80 entering severe overbought territory. Currently, price has fallen below $1800, near a critical support level, with weakening technical patterns.
4. Trading advice: Shorting is possible but must "wait for signals and use stop loss"
- Conclusion: Your judgment on market structure is basically accurate; $SNDK is indeed in a high-risk state of "potential avalanche at any time." But directly shorting "right now" is still a contrarian trade, with risk of being shaken out by high-level volatility.
- Safer approach:
- Wait for volume breakout and breakdown signal: Do not rush to short at current price; wait for price to break key support levels downward (such as recent consolidation lows) accompanied by significant volume increase to confirm a downtrend before entering.
- Small position trial short + strict stop loss: If insisting on contrarian shorting, keep position light and set stop loss above the recent rebound high (e.g., above $1870). If price breaks upward again, it indicates market sentiment may strengthen again; stop loss immediately to avoid being caught in a reversal.
- Build positions in batches, do not go all in: If the first short position profits, add on when price rebounds weakly; if losing, strictly execute stop loss and do not hold on.
$SNDK is indeed a typical fragile structure of "crowded longs, rich profits, and high risk of long-on-long liquidation." The shorting logic is valid, but execution must be extremely cautious, strictly controlling position size and risk, and waiting for clearer down signals before striking hard.刚看到一个数据：Solana链上周交易量达到12亿笔，而且不含投票交易。 这个“不含投票”挺关键的。很多公链在公布交易量时，会把节点之间的投票、共识消息也算进去。Solana这次扣掉了这些，只算真实用户交易。所以这12亿笔是实打实的链上活动——DeFi交互、NFT转账、支付结算，都在里面。 我的第一反应是：这个量级意味着什么？ 12亿笔/周，平均每天约1.7亿笔。这个数字在公链里确实处于前列。结合之前的数据，Solana日均活跃地址超过百万，非投票交易持续增长。 从基础设施的角度看，网络能承载这个量级的交易且保持稳定运行，本身就是技术成熟度的体现。而网络的活跃度正在通过真实的用户行为得到验证——交易量、活跃地址、稳定币转账等多项指标都在同步增长。 这不是“用户数”的增长，是“使用频率”的加深 交易量增长可能来自两种原因：更多的用户在交易，或者同样的用户在交易更多次。 从Solana目前的情况来看，我认为更多是后者——生态内的应用场景在增加，每个用户的使用频率在加深。DeFi、支付、NFT、Meme币交易，都在同一个网络里运转。用户不需要换链，就能完成多种操作，这自然会带来交易量的增长。Core Positioning and Underlying Correlation of $BTC and $ETH
$BTC Core Positioning: As the decentralized store of value benchmark in the crypto market, relying on the absolute scarcity of a total supply of 21 million and over a decade of consensus accumulation, it has become the first choice for institutional capital allocation in crypto assets. It serves as the market's foundational ballast stone, undertaking the core function of risk hedging and base allocation in portfolios. The current price is consolidating sideways in the $64,000-$65,000 range, with volatility continuously narrowing.
$ETH Core Positioning: As the world's largest decentralized smart contract platform, it supports the entire ecosystem including $DEFI, $NFT, $RWA tokenization, $AI $Agent, and more. Its growth ceiling far exceeds that of a pure store of value asset, naturally possessing higher price elasticity, making it suitable for aggressive capital seeking excess returns. The current price is stable around $1,900, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish trend above the 50-day moving average.
Underlying Binding Relationship: These two are the two core pillars of the crypto market, with a long-term price correlation exceeding 0.8. Both are core targets for institutional capital allocation. As of August 2026 data, 1 BTC can be exchanged for approximately 33.75 ETH. The $ETH/$BTC exchange rate has recently been around 0.0299, gradually breaking out of a multi-year downtrend channel. With catalysts from RWA and AI applications, it is expected to enter a trend of upward movement.
II. Current Market Divergences and Capital Differentiation Characteristics
Mainstream Coin Stability Signals: $BTC and $ETH have maintained narrow range oscillations over the past two months, with volatility dropping to yearly lows. This indicates that after a deep prior correction, large on-chain capital has formed a bottom consensus on these two core assets. Market risk appetite is gradually recovering, and capital is willing to position towards assets with higher elasticity.
Second-Tier Coin Clustering Dilemma: Second-tier public chain coins like $OKB and $ADA have some localized capital clustering for support, but their ecosystem development progress and institutional holdings are far behind the two major mainstream coins, resulting in severely insufficient overall resilience. Sector coins such as $AVAX, $FIL, and $WLD have long been in a passive follow-up state without independent narrative support or incremental capital inflows, relying entirely on the momentum of mainstream coins, making it difficult to achieve independent upward trends.
Essence of Stock Market Competition: Currently, there is no new off-chain capital entering the market. On-chain capital can only selectively concentrate within a limited set of assets. The vast majority of small and mid-cap coins cannot obtain sustained capital attention. Liquidity continues to concentrate on the two core assets, $BTC and $ETH, further reinforcing the "strong get stronger" market pattern.
III. Overall Market Operation Characteristics
The crypto market is currently completely dominated by the dual cores of $BTC and $ETH. Their price movements directly determine the overall market rhythm. The market space and sustainability of other coins are strictly limited.
In the stock capital competition phase, capital prioritizes top-tier assets with good liquidity, strong consensus, and clear narrative support. The valuation reconstruction of small and mid-cap coins is still ongoing, and most assets find it difficult to return to previous highs. #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 #SanDisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus
$SNDK returned to pre-liberation levels overnight, dropping from 1814 back to 1568
SanDisk's recent pullback was really fierce. Yesterday intraday it surged to 1814, but last night it was crushed by a big bearish candle down to around 1568, a drop of nearly 10%. Western Digital fell 7%, Micron fell 7%, SK Hynix dropped over 9%, the entire storage sector took a hit.
When prices rise, they rise together; when they fall, no one escapes.
Actually, the logic behind the $93.9 billion long-term agreement hasn't changed. The company signed 8 NBM agreements covering over 50% of supply for fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028, with a guaranteed gross margin of around 80%. AI data center Flash demand is expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030, with KV cache accounting for 35%, so storage demand is indeed still there.
But the short-term rise was too steep. After the investor day, the stock surged continuously, rising over 35% in a week. Profit-taking at high levels became too concentrated, and combined with rising global bond yields suppressing tech stock valuations, the capital withdrawal turned into a stampede.
Now it depends on whether the 1600 level can hold. If it holds, there might be a technical rebound; if not, it could continue down to find support around 1500-1550. The long-term logic remains unchanged, but the short-term slope is indeed too steep, so chasing highs at this level carries significant risk. BTC showed a clear V-shaped reversal within two days, with market sentiment shifting from panic recovery to greed, and many coins quickly rebounded from their lows. However, this round of rally is not a broad rally but a structural rally: BTC stabilized the market, strong coins like LINK and OKB led the gains, and some low-priced altcoins followed suit, but their strength was clearly weaker than the leading coins. This market situation indicates that funds are not spreading out across the board, but are focusing on a few more certain directions. From the perspective of capital flows, the BTC rebound mainly drove market sentiment, with the top gainers mostly coming from independent narratives and capital clustering. LINK's recent strong performance indicates that funds are refocusing on infrastructure and oracle sectors; OKB's surge carries the hint of a recovery in platform token and ecosystem expectations, leaving some room for market imagination regarding exchange ecosystems, on-chain activities, and token value revaluation. But here's a caution: if only a few coins rise strongly and other sectors can't keep up, the market can easily turn into 'the strong get stronger, the weak keep weak.' Ordinary investors saw BTC rebound and quickly bought low-level altcoins, only to find that after the leading stocks rose, altcoins didn't follow suit at all and instead fell back first after the hype faded. — The core contradiction in the current market is: the market has recovered, but funds are not daring to cast a wide net. With limited external incremental funds, on-exchange funds can only choose a few coins with clearer stories, better liquidity, and easier capital control. Therefore, whether the rally can continue depends not on how much BTC has risen, but on whether strong sectors can spread out. Afterwards$SNDK On why SanDisk plummeted:
1. Positive news fully priced in, earnings report triggers sell-off
SanDisk's latest earnings report showed revenue and profit far exceeding expectations, and it also launched a $14 billion large-scale buyback plan. However, the capital market had already priced in the benefits of price increases in advance, a typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." After the impressive performance was realized, with no higher-than-expected positive news, floating profits were taken off the table directly.
2. Large-scale expansion by South Korean memory giants, oversupply panic
Samsung and SK Hynix announced long-term massive expansion plans, building new fabs to increase NAND flash capacity. The market anticipates a concentrated release of flash capacity in 2027-2028, making the current high prices and ultra-high gross margins of NAND chips unsustainable in the long term, directly depressing SanDisk's future profit expectations. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
3. Sentiment contagion across the entire memory sector
SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all experienced sharp pullbacks, with pessimism overnight spreading to the US stock market. The memory sector collectively sold off, and SanDisk, as a NAND leader, was sold off along with it.
The market naturally goes through cycles of prolonged declines followed by rises, and prolonged rises followed by declines. It is not yet time to bottom-fish; everyone should be cautious about buying more. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate hits 20-month high In June 2026, the Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate once surged to a 20-month high, with the futures premium over spot reaching the largest value in the current bear market cycle. Almost simultaneously, the ETH funding rate on Binance spiked to 0.0087%, the highest within 2026; major tokens like BNB also showed signs of crowded long positions.
The funding rate formula being positive essentially means a mechanism where longs and shorts "pay" each other to anchor the perpetual price to the spot price—when the perpetual premium over spot expands, longs continuously pay shorts. The core reason for this round of funding rate surge is that when BTC price quickly dropped from about $73K to around $62K, leveraged longs not only did not exit but instead bought the dip and added positions, passively holding on, causing the positive funding rate to pile up even as the price fell; meanwhile, the total open interest across the network dropped by over 15%, indicating old longs were liquidating at a loss while new longs were taking over.
How to interpret? Short-term leveraged longs are returning, sentiment is bullish 📈; but historical experience shows extreme positive funding rates are hard to sustain long-term. If BTC price fails to quickly confirm an upward move, the high holding costs will trigger a "long squeeze" deleveraging 📉. Although ETH and BNB are strengthening in sync, they are also dragged down by high funding rates, and in the mid-to-long term, the risk of crowded long positions facing reverse squeeze should be watched carefully.
$BTC 📊 $DOGE Liquidation Flash Report (August 19)
According to liquidation data, the whale completed a textbook-level one-sided long squeeze on DOGE from short to long cycles. Shorts in the 1-4 hour range were completely wiped out; although shorts appeared at 12 hours, they were instantly crushed. Longs fully erupted at 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $500,000.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $11,900 $11,900 $0
4 hours $17,600 $17,600 $0
12 hours $61,200 $28,600 $32,600
24 hours $508,900 $475,400 $33,500
From the $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations crushed shorts, wiping them out completely. The long squeeze unfolded with nuclear-level intensity, with $11,900 liquidated—longs dominated the short cycle, shorts were directly crushed; at 4 hours, longs continued to dominate, shorts still wiped out, the squeeze intensity moderately increased, liquidations rose slightly from $11,900 to $17,600—longs kept pushing; at 12 hours, direction weakened sharply, shorts only slightly exceeded longs by 1.14 times, longs and shorts nearly even, direction extremely ambiguous, liquidations surged to $61,200—mid-cycle confused everyone; at 24 hours, longs fully erupted, long liquidations at $475,400 versus shorts at $33,500, longs were 14.19 times shorts, cumulative liquidations surpassed $508,900—the whale completed a perfect three-stage squeeze on DOGE: "full long squeeze in short cycle → confusion in mid cycle → full harvest in long cycle," with 1-4 hour longs aggressively harvesting, 12-hour longs and shorts locked in confusion, and 24-hour longs harvesting with 14x intensity. A textbook example of "nurture, confuse, then kill." Everyone should control positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: DOGE direction repeatedly switches (1H/4H long squeeze → 12H balance → 24H long squeeze). The 12-hour direction is extremely ambiguous and confusing, and the 24-hour long multiple reaches 14x. After direction confirmation, long power erupts extremely, but beware of pullback risk after extreme consensus; 24-hour liquidations account for 94% of the daily total, with very high concentration and extreme market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 19
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting the "old engine" stalling and the "new engine" ramping up—phone pressure, automotive rescue, US Treasury yield re-anchoring, and storage logic reshaping, four forces converging in the same time window.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phones Down, Cars Up
After market close on August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 report: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
Smartphone business under full pressure. Shipments dropped sharply 26.5% year-on-year from 42.4 million units to 31.2 million units, revenue fell to ¥42.1 billion. Storage chip price hikes suppressed global demand, but Xiaomi optimized product mix, pushing smartphone ASP to a record high of ¥1,351—"selling less but at higher prices."
Automotive business became the biggest highlight. Smart electric vehicle revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, deliveries 104,199 units, up 28.2% year-on-year. However, the automotive business has concerns—gross margin dropped sharply from 26.4% last year to 19.2%, operating loss of ¥2.6 billion. Still, the Pengcheng series SUV pre-orders far exceeded expectations and is expected to be a core catalyst after its September launch.
"Phones support the family, cars start the business"—Xiaomi's transformation continues.
📈 30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007
On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007.
Three pressures combined: US fiscal deficit continues to expand, CBO forecasts debt interest payments will rise to $2.1 trillion by 2036; AI investment boom drives large-scale corporate bond issuance; US-Iran 60-day peace agreement expires, Brent crude closed at $90.87 per barrel. Castle Securities analysts bluntly stated that recent inflation improvement and softening employment should not be seen as signals that interest rate risks are over.
The rise in long-term rates means the global risk asset valuation benchmark is being re-anchored. When the risk-free rate stands above 5.3%, how long can tech stocks sustain their high valuations?
💾 SanDisk Rises Over 8%, Long-Term Agreements Reshape Storage Logic
SanDisk rose about 8% on Monday, after investors' day pushed the stock up nearly 14%.
The core driver of this rally is long-term agreements: SanDisk has signed 8 NBM long-term supply agreements covering over 50% of fiscal 2027 capacity and about two-thirds of fiscal 2028 capacity; even at floor prices, the minimum expected total revenue from these agreements can reach $93.9 billion, about 4.6 times fiscal 2026 revenue; customers provide $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. The CEO said bluntly: "In the past, we could only predict demand within three months; now we have locked purchase volumes for over four years."
SanDisk is shifting from a highly cyclical NAND supplier to a value-creation model driven by AI demand and secured by long-term agreements. When demand visibility extends from 3 months to over 4 years, the cycle logic is rewritten.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: Xiaomi's phone business is raising prices amid shrinking volume, automotive business is ramping up with losses, the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful transition; the US Treasury market is telling the world with a 5.31% yield that fiscal discipline loosening is being repriced; SanDisk is trying to rewrite the storage industry's boom-bust cycle fate with $93.9 billion in long-term agreements. When the old engine stalls, risk-free rates re-anchor, and industry logic reshapes simultaneously—the August 2026 market is searching for new coordinates for the "post-AI era" pricing system. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 If $DOGE really enters more payment scenarios, my first reaction might not be positive, but to ask: who bears the volatility?
Assuming a cup of coffee is worth $5 today.
You pay with $DOGE.
What the merchant really wants is $5 purchasing power, not DOGE that might be worth $4.5 or $5.5 tomorrow.
So the real difficulty in the payment story has never been "can it be transferred."
It's how to handle price volatility.
Does the merchant instantly convert to stablecoins?
Does the payment platform bear the exchange risk?
Does the user pay directly with DOGE, and the backend automatically settles in dollars?
If this infrastructure matures in the future, DOGE could indeed gain more use cases.
But an unconventional problem will also arise:
If the merchant sells DOGE immediately after receiving it, does it bring long-term demand, or does it increase both buying and selling simultaneously?
So seeing "support DOGE payment" cannot directly equal new holding demand.
What really matters is whether more DOGE stays in the system after payment.
Payment volume and holding demand are two completely different report cards.
#DOGE #Dogecoin #Payment #Stablecoin #Crypto #OKXPlanetAdding the missing piece: Japan's 10-year JGB just hit a 30-year high too, and Japan's the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. If capital heads home, that's less demand for the long end exactly when it needs buyers most. Two central banks, one yield story not just the Fed.#30YYieldHits2007High High-rating swing account test order SKHX, 209 orders placed totaling over 1.27 million U long positions
At 00:05, SKHX transactions suddenly became dense. This account previously had no same-direction positions in SKHX but placed 209 orders to build long positions totaling 1.27 million U, with an average price of 1077.09.
High CopyScore candidate, swing trading, biased towards long positions. Historical PnL 1.03 million U, equity 2.12 million U, win rate 46.2%, 31 out of 42 trades were long. This kind of long-biased account opening new positions on a symbol that rarely appears on large order lists is more worth watching than ordinary old positions.
Currently using cross leverage, no same-direction old positions shown. That means this order is either a new position testing direction or driven by some market condition. The public data does not reveal the motive, so we can only monitor this address's subsequent actions on SKHX.
If it later adds to the same direction, it indicates dissatisfaction with the current scale; if it quickly reduces, it was a brief test order. Real market changes will provide the answer.
If you like my sharing, please follow.$BTC rebound faces resistance, entering a consolidation phase around the 64600 level; $ETH follows BTC's fluctuations with limited elasticity; the most critical observation indicator ETH/BTC quickly retraced after testing the 0.03005 threshold, clearly reflecting market segmentation—capital prioritizes anchoring to BTC for risk aversion, temporarily avoiding Ethereum and similar assets that are more sensitive to risk appetite.
Looking outward, the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields remains the core constraint hanging over risk assets. The continuously rising discount rate persistently suppresses the valuation ceiling of interest-free assets like crypto, forming a mid-to-long-term market ceiling. Looking inward, no trend-breaking moves have appeared on the chart; BTC and ETH still maintain a box range consolidation, but capital sentiment has turned conservative, making the price ratio a leading indicator for gauging market sentiment.
Trading is not suitable for one-sided bets; distinguishing cycles for response is more reasonable. Short-term traders should operate with a range mindset, strictly setting stop losses, and controlling profits and losses based on support and resistance; mid-to-long-term traders need patience to wait for two major confirmation signals: first, BTC must break above previous highs with volume, breaking the current consolidation pattern; second, the ETH/BTC price ratio must stabilize and rise, proving that market risk appetite is warming and capital is willing to allocate to ecosystem assets. Before these two signals materialize, focus on tracking and verification, strictly control position sizes, and rationally view opportunities and traps within the consolidation.The Pentagon is evaluating post-war downsizing in the Persian Gulf. 📊
Eased tensions lower inflation worries, providing short-term relief to crypto.
$BTC displays resilience via de-risking, while $ETH activity remains weaker.
Power vacuums and Asia-Pacific supply chain shifts pose medium-term risks.
Watch support at $64,000 for $BTC and $1,900 for $ETH as Fed policy leads.$OKB Recently, I have become increasingly willing to regard OKB as a "platform asset" worth long-term observation, rather than simply comparing its price fluctuations with other altcoins. The core change in OKB is that its supply logic has undergone a fundamental transformation. OKX completed a historical buyback and one-time burn of reserved OKB in 2025, after which the total supply was fixed at 21 million tokens, and the contract's minting and burning functions were removed. This means that the true determinant of OKB's value in the future will no longer be "whether more tokens can continue to be burned," but whether the OKX ecosystem can continuously generate real demand. X Layer, as the native Gas token of OKB, is an important observation point; meanwhile, new demand arising from on-chain applications, trading infrastructure, and ecosystem expansion is also worth continuous tracking. Of course, scarcity does not necessarily mean price appreciation; platform tokens are also affected by market cycles, regulation, competition, and the pace of ecosystem development. Especially after experiencing significant volatility, one should not blindly chase the price just because of the "21 million tokens" story. Regarding OKB, I prefer to focus on three things: whether user demand is growing, whether the X Layer ecosystem is truly coming alive, and whether the actual use cases of OKB are continuously increasing. If these three directions can be fulfilled in the long term, the potential for OKB's growth can truly open up. #OKB #OKX #XLayer #cryptocurrency $OKB Morning Market Notes｜US Stocks & Crypto Quick Look
Good morning friends, a brief summary of last night to this morning's market situation 📝
▫️ US Stock Market
Last night, the three major indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq down over 1%, and tech stocks broadly under pressure and pulling back.
The previously hot storage sector saw a significant pullback, with $SNDK SanDisk dropping sharply. After a recent rally, funds concentrated on taking profits and exiting.
Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, still a heavy burden weighing on risk assets.
▫️ Crypto Market
BTC hovered around 64,000. Despite the sharp sell-off in US stocks, the crypto market held up against selling pressure. Spot ETFs still saw inflows supporting the market, briefly pushing prices close to breaking 65,000.
The market remains frustrating, with no clear one-way trend, and frequent back-and-forth moves making short-term trading risky.
I continue to dollar-cost average $100 into BTC daily, avoiding betting on short-term spikes or crashes, building my position gradually.
▫️ A Little Rambling
During volatile macro conditions, avoid frequent trades; strategy stability is far more important than trying to catch a single market move.
⚠️ Personal market record sharing only, not investment advice
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ $SPCX
During the collective sell-off in storage, $SPCX behaved unusually steadily, especially with the next batch of 7%, or 319 million shares, unlocking on August 20.
It's hard to say whether funds are buying in before the unlock to induce a pump or if arbitrage funds are entering early ahead of the Nasdaq weight adjustment on September 18.
The former suggests a gradual decline after the August 20 unlock, while the latter implies buying support could last until September 18.
Generally, the biggest selling pressure on SPCX stock price is considered to be between 155-175; holders below this range may be reluctant to sell, while those above might chase prices up to the 200-300 range.
If next:
Recovering 146.23 and then stabilizing above 150: indicates genuine support, temporarily invalidating the pump suspicion.
Closing between 143–145: price maintained before unlock, direction uncertain.
Breaking below the VWAP around 141.7, and then losing 140 near the close: suspicion of a pump-and-dump increases significantly.
On August 20, a volume surge breaking below 140 and failing to rebound: basically confirms this round is providing liquidity for the unlocking shares to be absorbed, with the next likely test at 135.
On the unlock day, huge volume but holding 140–142 and closing above 143: instead indicates the new supply is absorbed by the market, possibly repeating the "sell the expectation, buy the fact" pattern after the first unlock. Bitcoin volatility drops to a cyclical low, traders turn to AI stocks and prediction markets
BTC 30-day realized volatility falls to 42%, while the S&P 500 is only 18%, the smallest gap in history. Trading deadlock: miner and corporate sell pressure caps the price, long-term holders accumulate to support the bottom, price seems stuck like glued with 502 adhesive.
NYDIG puts it bluntly: those wanting 5x or 10x returns are now chasing AI stocks, tokenized stocks, stock perpetuals, 0DTE options, and sports event contracts. Crypto platform traditional asset perpetual monthly trading volume surged from 52 billion in January to 268 billion in June, more than 5 times in half a year; Korean retail investors are even more aggressive, crypto trading volume dropped up to 80% year-on-year, with funds fully shifting to AI concept stocks.
My judgment:
• Low volatility ≠ safety, it means liquidity is withdrawing awaiting catalysts (regulation/macro/new narratives)
• Short-term funds fleeing risk is normal, BTC is being forced to "institutionalize and mature"
• But with thin depth + low volatility, once a breakout happens, the spike will be more severe than during high volatility
Strategy: Don’t fall in love with sideways trading, keep main positions in BTC/ETH for the cycle, use spare funds to seek alpha in AI stocks/prediction markets, and avoid opening leverage during compression periods.$LINK spot market accumulation and derivatives short sentiment form a sharp confrontation, with improved liquidity and potential selling pressure intertwined, making short-term breakout face a directional choice.
The spot side performs strongly, with spot ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding $3.5 million for two consecutive days, driving the large position share up to 46.57%, indicating that long-term funds are continuously placing orders to absorb chips. In contrast, derivatives show a high willingness to short, with the contract long-short ratio dropping to 0.76 and funding rates turning negative, reflecting short-term funds using rebounds to establish short positions.
The core variables driving the market are prioritized as follows: actual on-chain application fund migration volume, absorption efficiency of concentrated selling pressure on exchanges, and the possibility of short squeeze in derivatives. Aave designates CCIP as the default facility and drives $7.2 billion in fund migration, strengthening the network value anchor and slowing the depth of bearish sentiment in liquidity.
The bullish scenario depends on the spot market's ability to absorb liquidity shocks. If the 984,000 LINK transferred to Coinbase (about $9.23 million) is smoothly absorbed by buy orders, and ETFs continue net inflows, it is likely to trigger a short squeeze under negative funding rates.
The bearish scenario is triggered by concentrated selling pressure release. If these 984,000 LINK are directly dumped in the spot pool, combined with an interruption of spot ETF inflows, the short-favored 0.76 long-short ratio will turn into trend-following shorts, causing the price to break support.
If the long-short ratio recovers to 1.0 and ETF inflows slow down, the market will enter a range-bound consolidation. Once the large position share declines continuously from 46.57%, it indicates institutional buying exhaustion, and the bullish scenario fails.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, the core observation is whether the 984,000 LINK at the Coinbase address will convert into actual sell orders, and whether the contract funding rate can recover and turn positive.
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂On August 18, the Nasdaq fell 1.33%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 5%. Nvidia fell about 2.3%, AMD about 4.3%, Broadcom about 3.2%, Micron about 7%, and SanDisk about 9%. Tech stocks clearly became the main source of market selling pressure yesterday. Why am I currently bearish? First is interest rate pressure. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high. A high interest rate environment is usually more unfavorable for high-valuation tech stocks. Second is profit-taking in AI/chip stocks. The semiconductor sector saw concentrated selling yesterday, and many stocks had already risen significantly earlier, so funds began to realize profits. Third is geopolitical issues and oil prices. The situation in the Middle East has caused the market to worry again about energy prices and inflation, which affects market expectations for future interest rates. What I am most focused on today: NVDA Nvidia closed around $219.74 on August 18, down about 2.3%. My trading idea is not to short right at the open. If there is a rebound: Clear resistance appears around $219–225 → bearish If it reclaims $225 and continues with volume → pause bearish stance If it breaks the previous low with volume → the bearish trend may continue to expand Also, Nvidia's next earnings report is expected on August 26, and the approach of earnings means volatility may further increase. Today's tech stock bull/bear probabilities Nasdaq: Bear 60%｜Bull 40% Semiconductors: Bear 65%｜Bull 35% NVDA: Bear 58%｜Bull 42% AMD: Bear Give the AI narrative a turning point. OpenAI recently disclosed Q2 revenue of $6.7 billion, an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, which sounds good, but losses have also widened and the profit outlook is even more uncertain, disappointing many shareholders hoping it would catch up with Anthropic; meanwhile, Anthropic is rumored to be launching an IPO within weeks. One surges while the other loses, one falls behind while the other goes public—the AI primary market narrative is shifting from "everyone can win" to "the beginning of differentiation." This sentiment of differentiation will inevitably spread to the secondary market and the AI concept sector in the crypto space. During the frenzy, everyone is a winner; during differentiation, the real test begins. Protect your ammunition, don’t go all in chasing the narrative at its loudest. Those who understand will understand.The Bitcoin bottom has appeared.
I call the $58,526 on June 30, 2026, the Bitcoin cycle low.
This is not because of some laser-eyed guy with a green arrow on YouTube.
That’s what surrender looks like.
My LTH profit oscillator hit -0.982 on February 11 — a robust Z-score of -3.53 and the most extreme negative reading in the entire available series.
That’s not ordinary fear.
That’s a man wearing a Bass Pro Shops hoodie, drinking a white Monster, explaining to Synchrony Bank that the funds are "between accounts."
The price ultimately washed out to $58,526 on June 30, down 53.1% from the all-time high.
At that exact low, 54.91% of the long-term supply was still in profit.
The median of the major lows in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022?
55.68%.
Difference: 0.77 percentage points.
That’s the fingerprint of a cycle bottom wearing Oakleys at Golden Corral.
Today the oscillator is at -0.554.
The median oscillator reading at those four previous major lows was -0.556.
You can’t align it more precisely without a county fair psychic, a municipal pension advisor, and an HP printer that’s been showing "LOW CYAN" since the Obama administration.
BTC is still 26.6% above the long-term holders’ realized price of $49,645.
56.9% of the long-term supply is already profitable.
LTS SOPR is 0.937, meaning the old coins circulating today are selling at an average loss of 6.3%.
This obvious contradiction is the signal.
Marginal sellers are puking.
The overall holder base is sound.
Loss realization still looks ugly, but the structural cost basis is holding. Those who absolutely must sell are selling to a network that refuses to crash.
At the previous four major bottoms, Bitcoin rose 4 out of 4 times after 30, 90, 180, 365, and 730 days.
Median forward returns:
30 days: +26.8%
90 days: +40.0%
180 days: +90.5%
365 days: +138.7%
730 days: +502.4%
Small sample?
Sure. Bitcoin has four modern completed cycle bottoms. We’re studying a monetized network, not soybean yields continuously collected since President Taft got stuck in a bathtub.
No indicator can notarize a bottom in real time.
I’m still making that judgment.
Bottoms never feel bullish. They feel like your cousin pawning a pressure washer while explaining the economy is rigged because his DraftKings multi-leg bet almost hit.
Surrender has happened. The cost basis is holding.
The math has stopped getting worse.
June 30 is the bottom.
Those waiting for "confirmation" will buy Bitcoin at $92,000 after receiving push notifications of institutional demand returning — probably financing it with a $14 breakfast burrito.
Bitcoin is going much higher.A rather twisted scene tonight: the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks through 4.75% hitting a new high, oil prices rise above 85, the Nasdaq falls for three consecutive days, risk assets are being hammered by interest rates, yet $BTC stubbornly holds above 64,000. The comment section is split into two camps: one shouts "Bitcoin has decoupled and become a safe haven," the other says "it just hasn't dropped enough yet, the correction is coming sooner or later." I trust the latter more. Crypto has never been a safe haven asset; it just often reacts to interest rates with a delay. Its current "strength" is most likely lagging, not decoupling. I acknowledge the short squeeze momentum, but until the main trend changes, don't mistake stubbornness for bullishness. Which side are you on? $BTC - 60k Bottom Prediction
After hope and localized bullish sentiment, boredom has now arrived.
An update on the bottom prediction we made in February. Just a reminder, since 66k+ we have been trading counter-trend shorts, and we are still continuing.
So, although I have loudly and clearly stated counter-trend shorts, remember that keeping the big picture in mind is always a good thing.
A lot has changed since the last update. While price movement has been minimal, there has been a significant localized shift among market participants. My 60k bottom prediction in February faced strong rebounds, and the reminder about 60k in June saw even stronger rebounds (prices made equal lows, but sentiment made lower lows)...
...Just think about those famous charts from February, when everyone was "calling the top," saying "we will break below 50k," "we are in a bear market," as if it would be a classic bear market. We said no, we said this bear market would be shallower and bottom near 60k.
And now, many of those people are speaking in a completely different tone, especially when we broke above 66k. "July rebound." "I'm going swing long." "160k is coming soon," and so on.
This sentiment reversal has been quite firmly established, but given the market wants to form a bottom, given all my "Magic 7" convergence points have appeared, and given the very low probability of Bitcoin dropping below 50k in today's market environment, the likelihood of this bottom idea coming true is much higher.
However, where many people get it wrong is that we do not need extreme bearish sentiment anymore for the market to bottom. That passed during the peak below 60k. We only need the localized bullish sentiment reversal to be resolved, which is exactly what we usually see at every bottom—boredom.
That is the period when price moves extremely slowly, as if the market has lost all liquidity, creating a false impression that "the world has lost interest in the asset."
Therefore, in my view, this boredom fits quite well with the current period we are in, the price action we see, and the overall sentiment and atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin. This also means localized consolidation, which means participant exhaustion, further supporting our localized short idea because we are at a consolidation peak.
In summary, this is a very typical bottoming process, accompanied by quite an interesting sentiment reversal, exactly as you would hope to see.Cameron Winklevoss said: AI trading provides Bitcoin with a $65,000 "time machine." This metaphor is quite interesting. He wasn't asking "How much will Bitcoin go up?", but rather: if you buy now and look back at this price a few years later, you might feel it's as cheap as a historic low. The value of the term "time machine" lies not in predicting prices, but in describing a perspective—today's $65,000 may be just a starting point when looking into the future. My understanding of this statement: According to Winklevoss's logic, institutional allocation is still in its early stages, ETF funds are still flowing in, and AI capital spending is driving up the value of computing infrastructure. He believes now is a "good opportunity to buy the dip" based on the assumption that these factors will continue to ferment in the coming years. To be honest, I agree with this direction. But the "bottom-fishing timing" he mentioned is more from a long-term allocation perspective rather than short-term trading—there is a fundamental difference between the two. Additionally, this statement was made by the Gemini co-founder. He has his own position and interests, so I wouldn't treat it as a pure market judgment to execute trades. But his thinking framework itself deserves to be taken seriously. When opinions align with positions, multiple validations are needed. Winklevoss has consistently been optimistic about Bitcoin, which aligns with his business model. As long as Gemini is still operating, he has reason to believe Bitcoin will rise in the long term$BTC is still holding strong above 64,700, but tonight the real focus shouldn't be on the coin price, it's on U.S. Treasury bonds. The 10-year yield once surged to 4.75%, hitting a new high since January last year, and the 30-year yield touched 5.34% at one point. The implication of rising yields is straightforward: as the risk-free rate goes up, the valuation anchors for all risk assets are pushed down, and crypto is no exception. The Nasdaq has fallen for three consecutive days, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has plunged heavily; essentially, these are different facets of the same issue. A short squeeze can boost short-term sentiment, but as long as the interest rate trend doesn't change, the ceiling for any rebound remains low. Don't just watch the candlesticks; first, check the bond market's mood. Do you think this yield surge has peaked or is just getting started? $SOXL got hit hard at midnight, now stuck in a pit, neither up nor down
🌙 What happened during the night
00:10 Score surged to 9.49, OI spiked combined with short positions building up, and extreme bullish signals all triggered together
01:45 Dropped to 5.93
02:10 Stabilized at 5.92
Didn’t disappear all night, but momentum is fading
📊 Data
Open Interest (4H) +13.2%
Price (24H) -19.3%
Current price 126.18
24H High/Low 153.54 / 122.73
💡 Current situation
Price dropped this much but OI is still rising, shorts keep adding positions
Bull ratio stuck at 76.8%, many haven’t admitted defeat
Despite nearly a 20% drop, signals weakened, as if the selling pressure is starting to fail
🎯 Outlook
Bearish bias, but shorting at this level is becoming less cost-effective
Watch range 122.73-126.18
Invalidation level 153.54 (if price rebounds here, it means the short position buildup was wrong)
OI hasn’t retreated all night, but price is stuck at the low point, intraday trading and swing trading are completely different, which one are you?
⚠️ The above is personal sharing only, not investment advice, contracts carry leverage risks, please judge for yourself#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
$SNDK fell back overnight from 1814 to 1582
SanDisk's recent pullback was really fierce. Yesterday intraday it surged to 1814, but last night it dropped sharply with a big bearish candle down to around 1582, a decline of nearly 9%. Western Digital fell 7%, Micron fell 7%, SK Hynix dropped over 9%, the entire storage sector took a hit.
They all rise together, and no one escapes when they fall.
Actually, the logic behind the $93.9 billion long-term agreement hasn't changed. The company signed 8 NBM agreements covering over 50% of supply for fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028, with a guaranteed gross margin of around 80%. AI data center Flash demand is expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030, with KV cache accounting for 35%, so storage demand is indeed still there.
But the short-term rise was too steep. After Investor Day, the stock surged continuously, rising more than 35% in a week. Profit-taking at high levels was too concentrated, and combined with rising global bond yields suppressing tech stock valuations, the capital withdrawal caused a stampede.
Now it depends on whether the 1600 level can hold. If it holds, there might be a technical rebound; if not, it may continue down to find support around 1550-1580. The long-term logic hasn't changed, but the short-term slope is indeed too steep, so chasing highs at this level carries significant risk.