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The most vulnerable link is never about getting the direction wrong, but about position size losing control before emotions do. Have you ever had that moment: clearly making the right judgment, yet being forced out during a spike? Recently, I reviewed my trading journal and found that the trades with the heaviest losses were not due to misreading the trend, but because the timing of adding positions coincided with the most crowded points in derivatives. I understand the original spirit of "daring to go heavy and persist," but what really keeps me awake at night are these three things: funding rates, open interest, and liquidation clusters. Let's start with the facts. When the open interest of perpetual contracts rises rapidly and the funding rate turns positive or even high, it means longs are paying to hold positions and leverage is building up. If the price doesn't rise at this time, that's a signal itself. Because the marginal buying power driving the price up may have already been expressed through contracts in advance. Spot hasn't caught up, contracts are pumped first, and this structure is fragile. A bullish path also truly exists. If the funding rate is moderate, open interest steadily increases, and spot volume grows in sync, it indicates new money entering rather than old positions gambling against each other. In such cases, breakouts are more likely to continue; BTC stabilizes, ETH and major altcoins have room for catch-up gains, and risk appetite genuinely returns. This is healthy leverage, not a game of hot potato. But the overlooked risk is: the market is trading on "rate cut expectations" and "continuous ETF inflows," stories already priced in, while what's not priced in is — after a deep liquidation, market makers retreat, spreads widen, and rebounds weaken in a chain reaction. Altcoin contracts have thinner depth, and spike amplitudes are often two to three times that of BTC. You think you're bottom-fishing,🌅 The day after CPI: BTC returns to 81000, ETH drops 3 points, OKB surprisingly in the green
$BTC 81888, down 1.85 points 📉
CPI at 3.7% beats expectations, BTC dropped from 83600 straight down to 81888. Over 300 million liquidations across the network, 170,000 people wiped out. But there is support around 81000, no further crash, indicating bottom-fishing funds are entering at this level. Whether the bearish news is fully priced in and this is a rebound or just a pullback depends on if it can hold in the next few days.
$ETH 2437, down 3.09 points ⚡
ETH fell harder than BTC, with higher leverage. Previously breaking above 2500 gave hope to outperform, but CPI crushed it back to 2437. A whale who won 15 consecutive trades opened a 60 million ETH long at this level, betting the bearish news is over, but short-term pressure remains.
$OKB 124.87, up 3.04 points 🟢
The only green in a sea of red, pulling up 3 points against the trend. On data days, funds move to platform tokens for hedging, with fee burns providing a floor. Others fall while it rises, not by much but at least avoiding losses.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ CPI both exceed expectations, but BTC only slightly rises: How long can this resilience last?
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose to 2.6%, also exceeding expectations. Overall month-over-month increase was 0.6%, gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, while core inflation still rose 0.3%, indicating that price pressures are not only from energy. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
BTC is currently up slightly by 0.42%, seemingly withstanding the negative news, but this does not mean the risk is gone. Inflation rebound may push US Treasury yields higher, and if the market further revises up rate hike expectations, risk assets will remain under pressure.
Key technical points to watch: resistance zone above is 83500–84500, first support below is 81500–82000; if it breaks down effectively, beware of a retest of 80000.
Going forward, don’t just focus on CPI, but also observe yields and capital flows. The ability to rise despite better-than-expected data shows market resilience; however, only a volume breakout above 84500 can further confirm the strength of the bulls. Withstanding negative news is an advantage, but whether it can sustain the position is the key. $BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 From tonight until tomorrow night, the US September CPI, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released in quick succession, with global markets holding their breath for the results (｡･ω･｡)ﾉ♡. September oil prices remain high, and the energy component may push inflation back up. If core data also remains stubborn, rate cut trades will need to cool off first. Fed officials are still hawkish, but the market leans toward a pause; the bigger the expectation gap, the more volatile the market tends to be.
If data exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar may surge first, and BTC and the crypto market will inevitably wobble, with altcoins experiencing even sharper spikes (╥﹏╥). Looking at external markets, US stocks, Korean stocks, and the memory sector are all weak, risk appetite continues to shrink, and contract leverage is most vulnerable to being harvested at this time.
My strategy: accumulate BTC and ETH spot positions in batches, only take very small contract positions to test the waters, avoid heavy positions or guessing directions before the data, and wait for capital to show its stance before making moves. Will you stay out of the market and watch, or take small positions to feel the volatility? (｡•́︿•̀｡)
⚠️ The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; profits and losses are your own responsibility. $WAL WAL's rebound looks technically decent, but the chip structure is very fragile. It can be traded short-term, but don't take it seriously for the long term. What you really need to watch is not the candlestick chart, but the selling pressure from unlocked tokens later and whether anyone is actually using the network.
Position sizing needs to be well controlled when opening a trade$ZEC 从1700美元上方一路滑到1200美元附近，图表上多条均线像盖子一样压住反弹——这不是"洗盘"，而是一次筹码结构的重新定价。更值得警惕的是：这轮下跌发生在隐私叙事整体升温、$BTC 仍处高位震荡的背景下，$ZEC 却独自走弱，这种背离本身就是信号。 先看事实：原文提到价格从接近1700跌至1200上方，跌幅约三成。均线系统全部位于价格上方，意味着过去一段时间买入的持仓者几乎全线浮亏。这种结构下，反弹会遇到层层解套抛压，短期难以形成有效反转。所谓"抄底"，在没有放量企稳、没有价格重新站上关键均线之前，只是接刀。 再看叙事层面。隐私币赛道并非没有资金关注，但$ZEC 的问题在于：它的上涨更多由情绪和博主喊单驱动，而非链上数据或资金面的持续流入。当价格从1700回落，最先离场的就是杠杆和短线筹码，留下的是被套的散户——这正是"站岗"的典型形态。$BTC 作为大盘锚定物，其走势决定整体风险偏好；若$BTC 不能重新走强，$ZEC 这类高波动资产很难独立反转。 那当前位置该怎么做？不做预测，只看条件。多头需要看到的确认信号是：价格放量收复前一波下跌的中轴区域，且均线由压制转为走平。空头Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.6%, with the first-level pair scale around $57; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.57%.
The marked positive basis for $ETH shows a significant shrinkage in the first-level buy and sell quotes. The marked near-far spread is +1.79%, and the first-level buy near sell far quote spread is +0.77%.At 2:30 AM, I'm still watching $BTC.
The intraday low was revised twice, from 81,594 to 81,523. $HYPE was also adjusted to 79.169. A slow knife cutting bit by bit.
What I want to say most is still about Coinbase. $BTC is reported at 81,549 on Coinbase, 81 dollars lower than Binance, and $ETH is 2.7 dollars lower. In the US stock market from afternoon until now, six hours, this price gap has never turned positive once. The US region is still dumping.
The funding rate for $HYPE hit +0.01%, directly hitting the ceiling. Bulls are paying shorts by the hour; it's squeezed to this point, and a single needle is enough.
$BTC's 15-minute volume was 284 during the main drop, just now it was 2.2. The volume is gone.
Waiting for three signals: 1️⃣ funding rate turns negative 2️⃣ OI reverses 3️⃣ premium returns to positive. If $BTC breaks 81,523, watch 80,000.
If you find this valuable, give a like to let me know someone is watching. #美银调查揭示股债分歧，贝莱德提前增配短债 $MEGA is acting a bit strange this hour
Let's look at the earlier period
From 19:00 to 01:00, seven hours
Total trading volume 560,000 U
Hourly average 80,000 U, no one paying attention
At 02:00 this candle
One candle 990,000 U
That's 1.77 times the volume of those seven hours
24.8 times the previous hour
Price moved from 0.04207 to 0.04540
A single surge of 7.92%
Currently quoted at 0.04474
24h only up 0.56%
Because from 20:00 to 01:00 it declined 3.80%
What I'm watching is not this bullish candle
But whether anyone will follow up afterwards
Above 0.04540 there's only 1.48%
Above that 0.04643 is just 3.78%
Below 0.04185 there's 6.46%
The space is reversed
24h trading volume 2,360,000 U
Thin order book, the biggest fear is no one following after a big surge
Fee rate +0.0014%, annualized 1.5%
No congestion
OI and long-short ratio for this coin can't be found
Conclusion: wait and see
Not bearish, this candle hasn't been fully validated
The 02:00 candle has retraced 1.61% from the high
Conditions to change stance
If it holds above 0.04540 with volume not dropping, then consider bullish
If it falls below 0.04399, then consider bearish
Neither condition met, I won't act
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)$SNDK is so resilient and still hasn't broken 1400
Every time it starts to fall, all kinds of panic emotions come out, along with various negative news
Today, the most common issue I saw on the planet was storage overcapacity.
The problem of storage overcapacity hasn't just appeared for a day or two; every time there's a drop, storage overcapacity and capacity expansion are brought up to create panic
The most panic-inducing drop in August was due to capacity expansion and storage overcapacity. It's still the same old playbook #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Tesla will release its Q3 earnings report on October 21. The market is now focusing not on delivery volume, but on profits.
Q3 deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, higher than market expectations, but still down 2.1% year-over-year. Deliveries beating expectations doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise, because what the market really cares about is whether selling so many cars is profitable. The key points are whether the automotive business’s gross margin can recover and whether cash flow has improved.
Additionally, progress on Robotaxi and Optimus is important. These two areas represent the imagination space in Tesla’s valuation. If the earnings report can provide a clear commercialization timeline or new developments, the market will be willing to pay a premium. If it remains only at the conceptual stage, selling cars alone cannot support the current valuation.
For BTC, this matter is indirect. Tesla represents the direction of electric vehicles and AI hardware; its earnings reflect the pace of high-end manufacturing and AI commercialization. If gross margins recover and AI business progresses, tech stock sentiment will improve, and BTC as a risk asset will benefit accordingly. If profits fall short of expectations, tech stocks will be under pressure, and BTC cannot avoid the impact.
In the short term, BTC is still watching CPI and tonight’s market reaction. CPI exceeding expectations means interest rate pressure remains, and BTC is under pressure near 82,000. Tesla’s earnings report is next week, so don’t bet early now.
Operationally, wait for the data to land and see how the market reacts before making moves. At this point, light positions or watching is better than betting on direction.
I am Cige. $TSLA $xTSLA #US September CPI YoY rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations
As soon as the CPI data came out, I knew tonight wouldn't be easy. September CPI YoY hit 3.7%, core at 2.6%, both surpassing expectations. Gasoline rose 9%, contributing half of the increase, but even worse, housing, used cars, and airfares are also rising, showing inflation stickiness hasn't eased at all.
The probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 20% to 47%, and the chance of at least one more hike before year-end exceeds 95%. This afternoon I saw BTC hovering around 83,900, but once the data dropped, it immediately crashed to 81,850. I quickly placed a limit order at 81,500 but missed it—kicking myself now.
On the ETF side, nearly 700 million outflow last week, with 485 million running out in a single day on Wednesday. On-chain, a whale sold 1,074 BTC over three days, then turned around to buy 35,346 ETH at an average price of 2,529, clearly not optimistic about BTC in the short term. The fear and greed index also dropped from 69 to 57, showing sentiment is clearly cooling.
I haven't changed my own position, but don't rush to bottom-fish after this kind of data; wait for the October meeting to conclude. Rate hike expectations change daily—better to miss a bite than get stuck halfway up the mountain.
$BTC $ETH $LINK
Chainlink addresses a basic blockchain limitation: smart contracts often need reliable information from outside their networks. Price feeds, external data, and cross-chain infrastructure can support applications across multiple sectors. Still, technical usefulness and token demand are separate questions. Continued integrations, actual service usage, and the economics of network participation are more meaningful indicators than partnership headlines alone.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
Palantir's earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the market is already full of expectations.
Q3 earnings will be released after the US market closes on November 2. Previously, Q2 revenue grew by 93%, with US commercial business soaring to 149% growth, and the company even raised its full-year guidance. The numbers are indeed impressive, but look at its current valuation: full-year revenue for 2025 is less than $4.5 billion, yet the market cap has already exceeded 500 billion. There's a gap of over a hundred times, meaning the market has priced in several years of high growth in advance.
The current stock price assumes it can maintain ultra-high growth for the long term, leaving very little margin for error. If commercial order growth slows even slightly, or guidance isn't as explosive, positive news could turn negative, and profit-taking at high levels could cause a severe pullback.
My view is simple.
Palantir, as a leading AI software company, has solid fundamentals, but no matter how solid, its valuation has run far ahead of its performance. Before the earnings report comes out, don't bet on it exceeding expectations; even if you win the bet, you might not profit, but if you lose, it will be a big loss. Wait for the data to come in and the direction to become clear before making a move.
What do you think? $BTC $AR
Arweave approaches data storage differently by focusing on permanent information storage. This creates an interesting use case for applications that need records to remain accessible over time. The bigger challenge is whether demand for permanent storage can expand beyond specialized blockchain projects. Long-term growth depends on practical usage, sustainable economics, and developers choosing Arweave over competing storage solutions.Bitcoin has already passed a support test. From the high of $87,197 on October 2 to the low of $80,347 on October 8, BTC retraced about 7.9%. After the previous support level of $84,000 was broken, the price quickly fell back to the original upper range near $81,300, then recovered on the same day. Bitfinex believes this round of decline has not clearly exceeded the recent pullback range during the rebound process. Since the low in July, the previous five pullbacks exceeding 5% ranged between 5.1% and 8.9%. The distribution of holding costs also shows that investors who entered earlier have not significantly exited. The amount of BTC with cost between approximately $77,600 and $81,300 remained basically stable, while the chips with cost between $81,300 and $83,200 increased from 179,000 to 537,000, reflecting turnover and absorption during the pullback. Loss selling by short-term holders was also relatively limited. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) measures whether recently purchased chips are overall in profit or loss when transferred out. This indicator briefly fell below 1 on October 8, then returned above 1 the next day, indicating that loss transfers did not continue to spread. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Actually, I want to open a long position on ETH, but I haven't made up my mind yet.
But now I have already placed an order for ETH. I don't know if it will be short-term or long-term.
I am still operating according to the box structure of the overall market.
ETH has also formed a complete box structure: the range from 2405 to 2566.
Now the price of ETH has come back to the bottom near 2405, and I have no reason not to participate in the game.
So I am buying ETH now. I will set a stop loss about 1 point below 2405. For take profit, I choose around 2555.
Calculated this way, the risk-reward ratio is also extremely reasonable.
Just do it.
In trading, we are not afraid of being criticized if we make mistakes.
But if the trading plan is stupid and illogical, then it must be boldly criticized. I accept being criticized for my own stupidity, but I absolutely do not accept being criticized for a trading plan that I made based on logic I understand, even if it ends up wrong, stopped out, and losing money!!
So, if I am right, I will hold; if I am wrong, then I will stop loss. It's not that hard, and there's no need to waste time arguing about who is right or wrong with such foolishness.September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeded expectations. What really makes the market nervous is the latter part: the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 20% to nearly 50%, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.3%, funding costs rose across the board, and BTC fell below 82,000.
This is not a one-off data issue; it marks the beginning of a repricing of rate hike expectations. The 9.1% month-on-month increase in gasoline prices partly reflects the situation in Iran, but the core 2.6% indicates that rents and service prices are still creeping up. For crypto, a 5.3% risk-free yield is the biggest opposing force.
Counterintuitive point: BTC falling to around 81,000 didn’t crash; spot funds are buying in. But the logic for buying is "buy after enough drop," not "inflation has peaked"—the two have completely different implications.
Reference framework (data as of 1 AM): 81,000 is the boundary between bulls and bears; breaking below points to 79,000; holding above 83,000 counts as recovery. Don’t take the first candlestick after the data as direction; wait for volatility to settle and see the support. Leverage positions beware: macro window liquidation cascades can amplify.
Basis = CPI components + yields + liquidation data; uncertainty = whether rate hike expectations will be reversed by subsequent employment data; if wrong, short sellers get hurt first, so don’t fully load your position.
You can miss the market move, but don’t let your position be swayed by the news. Are you waiting for 81,000 to break, or ready to catch it now? $BTC combined with the latest market data and institutional analysis, the subsequent trend of BTC can be broken down from a short-term perspective,
1. Short-term trend (1-4 weeks)
1. Core range battle: Currently, BTC is oscillating between $80,000 and $87,000, with solid support below $80,000. The $87,000-$88,000 range is a strong resistance level, with multiple attempts to break through failing to hold. If it effectively breaks above $87,000, the next target will be $94,000; if it falls below the $80,000 support, the short-term adjustment target is down to $78,000.
2. Key catalysts approaching: The US CPI on October 14, PPI on October 15, and public speeches by Federal Reserve officials on October 16 will directly impact the market's pricing of the October rate hike (currently only a 17% chance), serving as the core trigger for BTC's short-term direction.
3. Options market guidance: The call butterfly options at $90,000/$95,000/$100,000 expiring on October 30 are the most concentrated positions at the end of this month, indicating market funds have the momentum to test this range upward in the short term. As the business grows, revenue still needs to pass another hurdle
There is a detail worth calculating about $HYPE: after some HIP-3 markets enter growth mode, fees will drop significantly. Low fees can attract trades, but trading volume and revenue may grow at different rates. For example, hypothetically, if all other conditions remain the same and the fee rate drops to one-tenth of the original, the trading volume needs to increase tenfold to maintain the original fee revenue. So when seeing new markets expand, I will continue to check effective fee rates, revenue, and user retention. Whether the price cut can bring enough long-term customers determines if this concession is worthwhile. The more noticeable the trading volume, the more necessary the subsequent calculations.
The expansion of $AAVE also has capacity limits. Different assets have set deposit and borrowing caps, which are parameters used to control risk and can be adjusted through governance. Raising the caps only allows the business to grow larger; revenue still depends on actual borrowing. I am more interested in checking whether the limits are being utilized and whether new borrowing is overly concentrated in a few assets. After capacity opens up, the quality of growth still needs separate evaluation.
$XRP's account reserves represent another form of capital occupation. Accounts need to maintain a minimum balance, and some on-chain objects also increase reserve requirements; deleting objects or adjusting rules will change the amount occupied. Therefore, the demand brought by account increases must be calculated according to actual reserve requirements. I will look at net new accounts and net occupation, rather than directly equating account growth to an equal increase in buying demand.$BASED 20x short position, entry price 0.04692, current mark price 0.04163, floating profit 225.49%.
The market frenzy always comes to an end; the previous hype gradually fades, buying power weakens, and prices naturally step down. Many people see continuous declines and instinctively think the bears will run all the way, holding on stubbornly to seek more profits, but altcoin markets never run smoothly as expected.
Even with only 20x leverage, you cannot ignore the risk of sudden spikes caused by short-term capital pulling the price up. The floating profit on the account is just a temporary figure and can be quickly wiped out by a rebound at any time.
Currently, I choose to close half the position first to lock in this part of the profit. The remaining base position is set with a trailing stop to continue following the bearish trend. As long as there is no signal of capital reversal on the chart, continue holding; once the bulls counterattack, exit decisively without greed for the last bit of the move.
In market battles, understanding the trend is just the beginning; knowing how to lock in profits timely is the key to lasting in this market. $ZEC $SOL #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 The weakest link has never been the candlestick chart, but the human heart. Guess what, when even the dying bulls start warning about risks, what is the market really trading? Yesterday, I was watching ETH on the four-hour chart, sliding from 2807 down to 2405, then bouncing back to 2503. On the surface, it looks like a stop-loss, but that rebound is stuck right between EMA10 and EMA20, unable to go up or down, like being suffocated. The MACD shows a golden cross at the bottom, and the red bars have just appeared, but the volume is only half of what it was during the decline. This is not a recovery; it’s more like taking a deep breath, waiting for the next blow. What really chills me to the bone is the smart money’s moves. The spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 542 million last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrawing 477 million. Even more ruthless, some institutions cleared out all 52,000 ETH they had accumulated in July through Galaxy Digital’s OTC channel in October, without looking back. This is not just turnover; it’s a retreat. And the cross-market linkage is the most easily overlooked dark thread. The South Korean stock market plunged sharply today. Tom Lee, a staunch ETH bull, openly said that the decline in Korean stocks might spill over into crypto, and ETH will face greater selling pressure in the short term. When a long-term evangelist starts talking about risks, it’s often more honest than any indicator, because once narrative fatigue cracks from within, the repair time is far longer than a single bullish candle. The bullish path is not impossible. If BTC holds steady, Ethereum could reclaim the dense resistance zone between 2520 and 2550 with volume, and short covering could push a quick rebound. Altcoin season sentiment might also be reignited, but the premise is that volume must keep up. Right now, this kind of volume contraction is... A day when the shorts were "targeted for a precise blast" (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The hardest part of this round isn't the drop, but the rhythm. Just as weakness is confirmed, the candlestick shoots up; shorts get braver and braver, and the rebound immediately comes to trap them.
Look at the liquidation: 5.6 million in 1 hour, shorts account for 76%; 20.19 million in 4 hours, shorts account for 71%; 32.85 million BTC in 24 hours, shorts account for 78.7%, 28.98 million ETH, shorts account for 63.5%. BTC shorts are liquidated even more brutally, like being precisely hunted (╯‵□′)╯︵┻━┻.
The chain is straightforward: price pump → short covering → buyback → push higher → another batch explodes. Self-reinforcing, the higher it goes, the more shorts are squeezed. But a rebound ≠ a reversal. ETF weekly BTC outflow is 679 million, ETH outflow is 542 million; Coinbase premium dropped to July lows, the spread even turned negative at one point. Most buying is passive buyback, not active spot charging. South Korean stock market fell 5.5%, AI sentiment is hit, if tonight's CPI is hawkish, volatility will only get fiercer (⊙_⊙)?
Now just focus on the pullback support:
BTC 81,300–82,000, near the 400-day moving average, holding this is effective;
ETH 2,480–2,495, the previous low at 2,494 must not be lost.
Lose support, the rebound is just fireworks; hold it, and the short squeeze will have a sequel. (￣▽￣)~*$WAL This wave is a classic short squeeze: the long-short ratio has already inverted.
$WAL touched a new high of $0.0619 early this morning, up 62% in 24 hours. But more convincing than the price is the contract long-short ratio on OKX: yesterday at 1 PM the account long-short ratio was still 1.4 (longs dominant), but after 2 PM it inverted continuously, and by 9 PM last night it dropped straight to 0.45 — the number of shorts was more than twice the longs, and it has stayed around 0.56 without recovering.
To translate: after the first wave of rally, a large number of shorts rushed in to short at the top, but the price kept rising to $0.0619, trapping all those shorts. Now on OKX, the funding rate for $WAL is -0.54% per 8 hours, and the perpetual contract is discounted by 0.8% — shorts are not only losing on the price difference, but also have to pay every 8 hours to keep their positions alive. This is the classic structure of a short squeeze: the more the shorts resist, the more fuel there is.
But a squeeze has a characteristic: it comes fast and goes fast; once the fuel burns out, there is a counterattack. Watch two signals: first, the long-short ratio — if it quickly rebounds from below 0.5 to above 1.0, it means shorts admit defeat and the squeeze is near its end; second, the price — $0.055 is the starting point of this acceleration, breaking below it weakens the squeeze logic, and breaking $0.051 outright falsifies it.Conclusion first: The market is bleeding, but $BSP has surged 43% against the trend in 24 hours, yet the funding data tells a different story—this move is short-term turnover, not a bull leverage push.
Numbers laid out: 24h open at 37.95, current price 53.99, high 58.81, trading volume about $24 million. The volatility is concentrated entirely in the 4-hour candle from 10-14 20:00: opened at 38.07, surged to 58.81, closed at 52.68, with a single candle volume of about 380,000 coins, whereas the previous 4-hour average volume was only a few hundred coins.
The key is the money: open interest contracts are only about 27,800 contracts, equivalent to roughly $1.5 million—just 6% of the 24h trading volume. The market is basically short-term turnover, not continuous position building. Looking at the funding rate: -0.135%. The price rose 43%, but the rate is negative, indicating shorts dominate and are paying fees; the market is betting on a pullback.
Plainly put: Buying at highs is essentially betting against the shorts; the funding rate is the ticket price for this bet. In a low open interest product, a single large order can break the order book.
Background: Today, out of 253 major coins, 223 declined, median -3.47%, BTC -1.9%. A single coin moving against the trend is disconnected from overall sentiment; don’t be fooled by bullish candles, check the funding rate first.
This is not investment advice, just laying out the numbers. Do you think this counter-trend surge can hold, or will the negative funding shorts get squeezed first? Different reasons for the same drop: Breakdown of the declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL
All weakened on the same day, but their declines were completely different. A smaller drop doesn't necessarily mean stronger resistance.
BTC: Mainly emotional contagion.
The market cooled down, selling was driven by sentiment, but there was no collective large-holder exodus on-chain. Support appeared near the 400-day moving average, with signs of accumulation at low levels. This kind of drop looks more like emotional release.
ETH: Funds are withdrawing.
ETF net outflows continued, wallet balances moved outward, indicating some holders actively reduced positions, not just following the drop. Recovery is more difficult and requires new incremental funds to return.
SOL: Contract shorts applying pressure.
Perpetual contract shorts increased their positions, pushing the price down with leverage, while spot outflows were limited. Chips did not change hands on a large scale; the pressure is mainly on the derivatives side.
Therefore, the meanings of the three bearish candles differ: BTC is emotion, ETH is funds, SOL is contracts. On-chain data can distinguish who is truly selling and who is just dragged down. Simply ranking by decline size can easily mistake emotional lines for trend lines. Understanding the source reveals where caution is needed and where it is just noise.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ The biggest concern surrounding $CORE isn't just the token price—it's the sustainability of its validator ecosystem. If merchant-operated nodes continue to withdraw and block production becomes increasingly dependent on official nodes, network decentralization could face serious challenges. Three questions matter most: 🔹 Node Distribution: How many independent operators are still actively producing blocks? 🔹 Economic Incentives: Can node rewards cover operating costs and attract new participan涨幅不等于入场理由，跌幅也不等于抄底信号。今天我只做一件事：把$OP、$SUI、$ENA放在同一张观察台上，用"回调质量"而非"涨跌幅度"重新排序。📊 $OP 24H +6.68%、7D +17.8%，是三者中唯一短线动能向上的标的。但我不追这根阳线——真正值得盯的是它回调时的姿态：若只是浅幅回踩后价格仍能再度抬升，说明买盘承接有韧性，我会把它放进优先名单；若刚停涨就迅速走弱，则说明这波拉升缺乏后续资金，评估需要推倒重来。仓位维持不动，宁可少赚，也不愿买入后才发现自己扛不住波动。 $SUI 30D +42.6%、7D -7.82%，这是典型的"月度强势、周线走弱"组合。它现在缺的不是叙事，而是短线节奏的修复。一次轻微反弹不算数，我要看的是下一轮抛压回来时，它能否表现出更强的抗跌性、反弹是否更干脆。如果这个变化迟迟不出现，就别再用过去一个月的涨幅给它涂脂抹粉——月线涨幅是历史，抗压能力才是未来。 $ENA 7D -7.8%、24H -5.83%，仍在"拖后腿"状态。想博反弹之前，先问自己能拿多久：如果理由仅仅是"跌了很多"，那么再跌一段，很容易被迫把短线改口叫长期投资。现在少动手，等转This round of $ETH decline was not triggered by any sudden black swan event; it essentially represents a concentrated liquidation of leveraged funds. BTC bottomed out at 80927, ETH dropped to 2405, with a total of $814 million in contracts liquidated across the network, 84.6% of which were long positions. This was not caused by sudden news shocks but by high-leverage positions collectively "repaying debts."
This rebound looks more like a brief pullback during the downtrend: BTC has almost fully recovered its losses, just 0.3% short of reclaiming its ground; ETH failed to surpass 2560; SOL is still 3% away from 112. If market risk appetite truly improves, it wouldn't be only Bitcoin attracting funds. Currently, BTC's market dominance has risen to 59.3%, indicating that funds are not actively attacking but rather flowing into Bitcoin as a safe haven.
There is also no macro-level positive support. Harmak stated that inflation is transmitting to AI infrastructure and the power sector. The market currently prices in nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in December, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI release is a critical watershed: if core month-over-month inflation is ≤0.2%, the market will have some breathing room; 0.3% will continue to fuel rate hike discussions; if it is ≥0.4%, rate hike expectations will heat up again. The risk of inflation data being hotter than expected far outweighs the risk of it missing expectations.
Going forward, focus on three key price levels: BTC 84360, ETH 2580, SOL 113. Only if all three break through simultaneously will it indicate risk capital spreading and a strengthening market; if only BTC strengthens alone, it remains a safe-haven market and cannot be considered a trend recovery.exceeded expectations, core 2.6% month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded, hottest since May, big bearish news
Hawkish scenario realized, October rate hike expectations ignited, clearly before data release at 20:30, the probability of no rate hike in October was 70%
BTC data before 83300, intraday surged to 84000 then got hammered back, 83000 is the watershed, if broken look at 82000, 84000 turns back into resistance.
#DailyOrbit Dogecoin is starting to tell a new story again, but the market seems reluctant to buy it this time.
On September 30, the DogeOS public testnet went live, which should be considered one of the more important recent ecological developments for DOGE. Smart contracts, lending, stablecoins, games—things Dogecoin lacked before, the developers are now preparing to gradually add.
However, after the announcement, DOGE's price did not show a significant sustained increase.
This is a bit awkward. In the past, whenever Dogecoin was associated with a new concept, the community would get excited for days. Now, even news about the launch of an application layer gets a rather muted market response.
I think the problem might lie in expectations.
Over the past few years, everyone has heard too many ecological stories—testnet launches, partnership announcements, funding news—what project hasn’t? But how many products can truly retain users and generate revenue?
At least DogeOS has some things worth looking forward to this time. Developers can use familiar EVM tools to build applications, and there are future plans to involve Dogecoin miners in validation. However, the mainnet cannot yet directly verify related proofs, and the mainnet launch date is still uncertain.
So don’t rush to treat this as a realized positive.
I now actually feel that the $DOGE community needs to go through this kind of cooling-off period. In the past, one piece of news could stir up emotions; now people are starting to ask when the product will be usable and whether anyone is using it, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
If the project team wants to take Dogecoin from Meme culture to practical application, then let the product speak for itself.On October 14, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose by 10 basis points intraday to 5.31%. With long-term rates rising, if they remain high, it could put pressure on the valuations of risk assets including BTC. Next, watch whether yields can fall back and whether BTC will simultaneously come under pressure to determine if this round of rate shocks will continue.
$BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Inflation is rising again, the crypto circle needs to recalculate this financial equation
Oil prices have risen, and the pressure ultimately passed on to the financial markets. The US September CPI released tonight rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous 3.4% and the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 2.5%. For funds expecting a looser monetary environment, this data is clearly unfriendly.
Looking closely at the components, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase. But housing prices also rose 0.4% month-on-month, and core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from last month. Energy is the main driver, and other price pressures have not disappeared.
The market has already started to reprice: after the data release, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for further Fed rate hikes increased. However, inflation exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean a rate hike at the next meeting; subsequent employment and price data remain key.
My view is that BTC will need to see if it can withstand this kind of financial pressure going forward. With the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to rise, any rebound will require real buying support. Especially in contracts, don't take the first candlestick after the data release as confirmation of direction; wait for the volatility to settle and see if there is support before deciding whether to act. You can miss the market, but don't let your position be driven by a single piece of news. #US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, core inflation exceeded expectations Global central banks hike rates in unison: Federal Reserve, Europe, Japan, India, none left out.
China's central bank, alone, is easing liquidity.
Today it injected 700 billion, net injection 200 billion;
On October 8, injected 1.2 trillion, net injection also only 200 billion.
In ten days, twice, net injection 400 billion.
Why is China's central bank acting opposite to the world?
Because in 2025, China's CPI is 0, PPI falls 2.6%.
Others fight inflation, China fights deflation.
Latest data as of September 2026:
CPI +0.9%;
PPI +5.0%, highest since July 2022.
Non-ferrous metals +21.4%, coal +35.3%, oil +24.5%.
Deflation is no longer a problem.
The problem is, the central bank is still easing liquidity——
Old illness just healed, medicine cannot be stopped abruptly.
China's central bank is truly a super attentive super nanny. #RateHike $BTC $BCH perpetual contract 50x short position, opened at 280.2, currently at 270, floating profit +182.01%.
The logic is simple: due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the surge in US Treasury yields (10-year exceeding 5.3%), global macro risk aversion sentiment has intensified. The previous rally in BCH, driven by the news of "CME planning to launch futures in October," has fully played out, leading to large-scale profit-taking and mean reversion. The high Beta characteristic amplified the decline, with selling pressure overwhelming the thin buy side. 50x leverage, stop loss at 280.2.
Trailing take profit pushed above the cost price to lock in gains. Beware of short covering and short squeeze before CME officially goes live. $ETH $BTC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Tonight's 20:30 CPI is like a tightly drawn string; the market is so quiet it feels a bit unreal. Are you also waiting for this number? In the afternoon when looking at the 4H chart, BTC just bounced back quickly from yesterday's drop, so fast it was hard to react in time. Those trying to catch the bottom hung below, but the price bounced like it stepped on a spring, and when looking back it was already far from the low point. This kind of movement is the most frustrating—neither chasing nor waiting feels right. The expectation is 3.6%, previous value 3.4%, and the market has actually already priced in a 0.2% increase. In other words, what really determines the direction is not "whether it rose," but "whether it’s hotter than expected." If the number is near expectations, it’s likely a sell-the-fact rhythm, surging then falling back; if it’s below expectations, the 4H-level resistance at 83,948 will be tested, and breaking through will quickly shift sentiment from hesitation to FOMO. Conversely, if it’s above expectations, the 81,808 support will be tested first, then down to the untouched zones at 79.5K, 77.3K, and 75.6K. My own feeling is that this rebound’s slope is too steep, and short-term profit-taking hasn’t been fully cleared. Crowd psychology is now split into two groups: one fears missing out, the other fears catching a falling knife. CPI is just a catalyst; what really matters is whether volume follows in the first hour after the data release. A volume breakout above 83,948 will give altcoins a breather and risk appetite will warm; a low-volume false breakout will most likely provide liquidity to the bears. The bullish path depends on inflation cooling and renewed expectations of rate cuts, with BTC leading ETH and major altcoins in recovery; the bearish risk lies inThe CPI data is out: the inflation rate rose to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose to 2.6%. Inflation is heating up along with oil prices, slightly exceeding expectations by a bit. There's actually no need to panic. This data opens the door for a rate hike in December, but the probability of a rate hike in October remains very low.
Back to the market, Bitcoin tested 84k two or three times today but still couldn't break through. At least yesterday it was correct for most to stop out at 837, avoiding the partial pullback in between.$SKHYNIX is waiting to break 1000, and Korean shareholders are very resentful about Hynix spinning off Solidigm for a US IPO listing.
On October 12, Solidigm announced the establishment of its first Vice President of Government Affairs position to pave the way for local US expansion and regulatory approval for listing.
It has fallen for 6 consecutive trading days, with a decline of 21%.
For the company's management, Solidigm's independent stock issuance and financing can raise external funds for NAND capacity expansion (to compete with Micron and Kioxia), allowing Hynix to focus its internal cash flow on high-margin HBM and advanced packaging.
But for existing SK Hynix shareholders:
1. Solidigm lost more than 7 trillion KRW in the past two years, relying entirely on Hynix to use old shareholders' money to keep it afloat. Now that AI has fully driven the demand for large-capacity hard drives, this business is finally starting to make huge profits, but the company wants to spin it off for listing, which means old shareholders bore the losses, and outsiders will share the profits.
2. Previously, if you wanted to buy Solidigm, you could only buy Hynix stock; once it independently lists on the US stock market, global large funds will directly buy Solidigm, abandoning the parent company Hynix, causing Hynix's stock price to plummet.
3. Hynix is now extremely wealthy from selling HBM memory, with cash piling up on the books, fully capable of funding the subsidiary's expansion without the need to issue new shares externally and dilute its own equity.
4. From the parent group to Hynix and then to Solidigm, this is already the fourth generation of repeated listings.exceeded expectations, core 2.6% month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded, hottest since May, big bearish news
Hawkish scenario realized, October rate hike expectations ignited, clearly before data release at 20:30, the probability of no rate hike in October was 70%
BTC data before 83300, intraday surged to 84000 then got hammered back, 83000 is the watershed, if broken look at 82000, 84000 turns back into resistance.$WAL Rises when the market falls: false breakout clears the market, second phase acceleration is coming
$WAL surged 14% in the past hour, reaching a historical high of $0.0619, with a 24-hour increase of 62% and trading volume expanding to 224 million USD. In comparison: during the same period, the overall market has been steadily declining after the CPI release, with Bitcoin almost touching the 81,300 support level. This is the strongest independent rally today.
The price movement is also interesting: last night at 7 PM it first surged to $0.0555, then pulled back to $0.0514. The early morning scan still judged it as a false breakout. However, the consolidation only lasted a few hours, and late at night it directly accelerated in the second phase. This "false breakout—pullback—true breakout" pattern is much healthier than a straight surge, indicating there is real support underneath, not just pure emotional buying.
The catalyst remains the same: on October 12, the Sui Foundation invested 30 million USD in DATA Network, with Walrus serving as the default storage layer. There is no new news; this is the second wave of fermentation of old news. The next catalyst to watch is the migration schedule of DATA Network.
To clarify the position: chasing this slope is chasing a high, not bottom fishing. The $0.055 area is the first test; if the pullback does not break below it, the second phase trend is established and we can look higher; if it quickly falls below $0.051, then today's move is a bull trap, and all previous judgments are invalidated. $WAL market follow-up two scenario simulations
1. Strong continuation: The Sui ecosystem AI sector continues to ferment, new funds keep flowing in, pushing prices higher; but such news-driven rallies generally have weak sustainability.
2. Profit-taking (higher probability): Positive news is realized, bulls take profits and exit, a large number of new shorts exert pressure, rapid pullback occurs, and with high positions, flash crash liquidation scenarios are likely.$ETH This rebound feels like a sugar-coated bomb🍬💣
2739→2405→2537, then turning down again. That bullish candle is not a bottom, it's a bull trap smokescreen. Bears dig pits, bulls fill them. Think the pullback is over? It might just be the last gasp before a drop.
Hidden risk one: Around 2445, there's a whale liquidation line of $252 million long positions. Once triggered, forced liquidations could cause a chain reaction. Meanwhile, OGs have offloaded 9,618 ETH accumulated over 9 years, pocketing $24.21 million; institutions sold 52,000 ETH via Galaxy Digital OTC. Running away this fast sends a glaring signal.
Hidden risk two: Buying momentum is fading. BitMine stopped dollar-cost averaging after nearing its 5% cap, ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, BlackRock ETHA outflowed $477 million; since September 29, cumulative outflows exceed $780 million. Money is leaving, who will step in?
My short position entered at 2689, still holding 68.69% unrealized profit at 2504. Volume is shrinking, the rebound lacks strength, the rally looks more like a window to add positions. Target 2300, will consider taking profit then. 🌊 The trend is down, don’t swim against the current trying to be a hero. Going with the flow is the way to survive. ⚠️ Not investment advice. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 ⚠️ **Don't rush to bottom-fish yet! BTC still risks dipping back to $80,000!**
Brothers, BTC and ETH continue to fall, and there are no clear rebound signals for now!
📉 **Latest Market Data**
* BTC: $81,765, down 2.15%, daily low $81,594
* ETH: $2,434, down 3.39%, daily low $2,417
**Why remain cautious? There are three main reasons:**
**1️⃣ Funding rates are still positive**
* BTC: 0.00697%
* HYPE: 0.00994%
* ETH: 0.00306%
These are funding rates per 8 hours.
This indicates that longs are still paying funding fees. According to this analysis, the market may not have seen a thorough enough liquidation of long positions yet.
**2️⃣ Open interest is rising instead of falling**
In the past 5 hours:
* ETH contract open interest rose from 1.369 billion to 1.511 billion
* BTC contract open interest rose from 2.428 billion to 2.526 billion
Prices are falling, but open interest is increasing, indicating that funds are still entering the market. Whether bottom-fishing funds have been exhausted is still uncertain.
3️⃣ Negative premium appears on Coinbase
BTC quotes on Coinbase are $81,646, lower than Binance $WAL has exploded continuously these past two days, with on-site funds completely going berserk, creating an independent counter-market rally.
Yesterday it surged 33% in a single day, and today it soared another 16% within just one hour of opening. This is no ordinary pump; it’s like a rocket shooting straight up. The driving force behind this is the $30 million positive news from the Sui Foundation. Under this huge stimulus, a large amount of existing market funds have all crowded into this asset, maximizing the effect of capital clustering.
The market data also clearly reflects the heat: the 24-hour trading volume surged to 83 million, with a positive CVD inflow of over 600,000. This is not fake volume; it’s real capital entering and holding strong. On the technical side, the RSI has already hit 87, entering a severe overbought zone. At this stage, the market rally is completely driven by buying sentiment.
In contrast, after the CPI data release, BTC and ETH remain shrouded in a downtrend gloom, with the overall market lifeless. The market lacks direction, incremental funds are absent, and on-site funds have nowhere else to go, so they concentrate their attack on this lone coin with real positive fundamentals.
In just two days, it has nearly doubled, creating a wealth effect that looks very tempting, but risks have also accumulated to a very high level. The current price is severely overbought, with a massive amount of profit-taking piled up below. Once funds start cashing out and fleeing, the correction speed will also be very rapid, making chasing the high extremely risky. Counter-market demon coins may seem to make money fast, but their fall is just as brutal. Don’t let short-term surges cloud your judgment. $ETH The bad news is known: the CPI exceeded expectations.
The consolation is that the expectation of no rate hike in October, although it dropped from 82% to 58.5%, is still higher than the probability of a rate hike.
The good news is $STRC did not fall, currently priced at $99.9. This means the true end of the panic period for microstrategy, BTC, and crypto has arrived.
A big bull market requires macro liquidity (such as the rate cuts and QE from 2020 to 2021), which is clearly not met now.
A small bull market needs some positive news (for example, in 2019 China said it would develop blockchain, Facebook planned to launch the stablecoin Libra), or at least no looming risks, which is also clearly not met now.
The conclusion is that the bear market is over, but the bull market hasn't come. It might be a "monkey market," although the traditional financial sector doesn't have this term. But crypto itself is unconventional, even quite strange...
Brother Feng's strategy remains to be an LP in US stocks, and to trade altcoins he favors in waves. If the market is not good, it's suitable for learning; he plans to seriously study grid trading because a volatile market might be more suitable for grids.
As for US stocks, now it's earnings season, so wait for the earnings reports before making further decisions."After the liquidation, who is left exposed?"
This round of decline had no black swan, only the bill. BTC once dropped to 80,927, ETH slid to 2,405, with $814 million in contracts forcibly liquidated, 84.6% of which were long positions. It wasn't a surprise from the news, but a concentrated debt repayment under high leverage.
The rebound felt like a pullback during a retreat: BTC almost erased its losses, just 0.3% short; ETH failed to reclaim 2,560; SOL was 3% away from 112. If risk appetite truly returns, it shouldn't be only BTC being chased. BTC's market dominance rose to 59.3%, indicating funds are not attacking but hiding in the "big cake" air-raid shelter.
Macro conditions didn't provide any warmth either. Hammock pointed out that inflation is seeping into AI infrastructure and electricity, with a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%. Tonight's 8:30 PM CPI is the threshold: core month-over-month ≤0.2% would allow relief, 0.3% would keep the debate going, and ≥0.4% would restart rate hike trades. Being too hot is more troublesome than too cold.
Next, watch three prices: BTC 84,360, ETH 2,580, SOL 113. Only if all three break through simultaneously can we say risk is spreading; if only BTC runs alone, it's still a flight to safety, not a recovery.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SOL 📊 Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview
Netflix ($NFLX) will release its Q3 earnings on October 20, with the market focusing on revenue growth and advertising business performance.
The company expects revenue of $12.86 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 33.2%. However, subscription growth is slowing, and whether advertising can become a new growth engine will be a key point to watch.
If advertising revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price may see a valuation recovery; if advertising underperforms and user growth slows, the stock price could come under pressure.
For BTC, Netflix earnings are an indirect reference; in the short term, focus should remain on CPI data and market reactions.
Trading strategy: Do not bet in advance; wait for the earnings release to determine direction.
$NFLX $xNFLX
#USCPI3.7%CoreBeat #TSMCOct15Earnings #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Viewing asset volatility from different perspectives, under the current macro pressure, with interest rate hike expectations, high long-term bond yields,
high oil prices, and geopolitical instability, it is indeed somewhat pessimistic,
but on the other hand, if a golden pit is created around the November 3 midterm elections,
after the midterm elections, with interest rate hike expectations digested, long-term yields adapted by the market and fluctuating downward, easing between the US and Iran, and slowing oil prices, it would be a completely different scene!
The US stock market and AI fundamentals have not deteriorated, the trend remains intact, and for BTC, the bottom range has formed, a rebound breaking new highs signals the start of a trend. Once macro pressure is relieved, new vitality will burst forth#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $WCT current price 0.04133, 24h +3.90%
The gain looks decent at first glance
But breaking down the 1-hour chart, the picture changes
First, look at the volume
24h trading volume 820,000 U
At 00:00, one candle accounted for 290,000
That's 35% of the whole day
The latest candle only has 40,000 left, which is 14% of that
One candle finished, no one followed
Next, look at the position
24h high 0.04195, only 1.5% above current
96h high 0.04277, 3.5% above
Downwards, 24h low still 5.5% below
96h low 8.4% below
3.5% up vs 8.4% down
The odds are reversed
MA20 0.04017, MA60 0.04019
The two lines differ by 0.05%, sticking close
No trend, just a range
Fee rate +0.005%, annualized 5.5%
Neutral, no short squeeze pressure nor crowding
So it's not bearish
Just unnecessary to be bearish
With 820,000 U volume, a few thousand can spike the price
Trying to earn that 3.5% might get eaten by the spike first
When to watch again
① Break above 0.04277 with volume twice the average
② Pull back to 0.04017 without breaking, then rise again
No action now
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)This short position on $ZEC isn't very large, but the logic is quite clear, so I'm recording it.
Yesterday, the spike to 1285 already had a bit of a "pump and dump" vibe on the chart. There was heavy selling pressure above, and news from Grayscale showed continuous selling, with spot trading unable to keep up. I opened a short around 1247, betting on the high-level sentiment fading—no capital was following the rise, so profit-taking was inevitable.
Sure enough, several consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour chart smashed down with increased volume, indicating active capital withdrawal. The price bottomed near 1125, which basically washed out most of the long liquidity. Now the price has bounced back to around 1160, but I think this is just an emotional recovery after the sharp drop, not a trend reversal.
I rarely use 50x leverage, but I dared this time because the resistance between 1250-1285 was very clear, making the risk-reward ratio favorable. The current position looks okay, but after a sharp drop, there will be fluctuations. The key level to watch next is support near 1150. If the rebound is weak, I will consider holding on; but if it climbs back above 1200, we need to be cautious about shorts getting trapped.