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When the car pedals over the phone's brakes: Xiaomi's Q2 trillion-yuan dilemma hides the most severe lessons for the crypto market in the second half of the year. On August 18, Xiaomi delivered its Q2 report card—quarterly revenue of 108.9 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of 6.219 billion yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 42.6%; Automobile deliveries were 104199, up 28.2% year-on-year, while mobile phone shipments were 31.2 million units, down 26.5% year-on-year. This isn't a savior for cars, nor is it a smartphone dragging things down—it's Xiaomi feeding the car with the blood of its phones. [Veteran's Ramblings] Understanding this financial report is more useful than reading ten market analyses. Cut the lens to the encrypted disk. On June 29, 2026, BTC fell below $60,000, dropping to a low of $58,888. The Panic and Greed Index dropped to the extreme fear zone of 12, with over 60,000 liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $173 million. What are the funds doing? Escape from the altar and head to BTC to drill. BTC's market share has climbed above 58%, the highest since April 2021. ETH fell 9.6% for the week, DOGE 13%, XRP down 8.1%, and SOL's relative resilience dropped 3.4%. This is exactly the same as the Xiaomi Q2's script. Xiaomi's predicament is the same as the predicament of altcoins. Memory chip prices rose, with LPDDR5X up 78% to 83% month-on-month and LPDDR4X up 70% to 75%, pushing the gross margin of smartphones from 11.5% to 8.5%. How does Xiaomi do it? Cut mid- to low-end to protect ASP. Shipments decreased by 11.2 million units, but the average price dropped from 10.73 million units.Short position floating profit 22%, but ACE cut made my hands shake
short ACE @0.2009, TP0.1466/SL0.1737, floating profit 22.4%. A coin that dropped 56% rebounding is like free money, I'm waiting for a second dip.
long LINK @9.487 floating profit 0.76%, counter-trend +7.2% momentum still there, SL fixed at 9.10.
US stock tokenization 1 up 4 down, XSPY sideways, XSKHY up 0.54%, money is shifting to ARK innovation. XSOXL down 0.36%, semiconductor bulls are not awake yet.
BTC volume shrinks stuck at $63K, volume ratio -42.6%, this rebound is fake.
$OKB $105.91, only down 1%, wealth management still earning interest as usual, no matter how hot US stocks are, this side is steady as an old dog.
Are you holding this ACE position? Where to set SL? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
#OKXPlanet #ACE #LINK #OKB
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion. Today, overall risk appetite in the Asian session weakened rapidly. Japanese and Korean stock markets plunged sharply in early trading, with the Nikkei 225 dropping over 3%. The Korea Composite Index widened its intraday decline to 6%, exchanges triggered algorithmic trading controls, semiconductor heavyweight stocks plunged collectively, and the technology sector saw concentrated profit-taking. The three major A-share indices opened lower simultaneously, with market risk aversion rising rapidly, Hong Kong stocks also coming under downward pressure, and the entire Asia-Pacific equity market entering a short-term risk release phase. The first layer of impact is the transmission of short-term risk sentiment. Crypto is still classified by the market as a high-β risk asset. The collective sell-off of tech stocks in Asia-Pacific markets will lower overall risk appetite in early trading, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure in the crypto market. South Korea is also a highly active crypto trading market. When the local equity market panics, some local funds simultaneously reduce their crypto positions, causing short-term liquidity disturbances. The second layer is differentiated transmission logic. A sharp drop in the storage sector's underlying stocks will directly put pressure on xSNDK sentiment; Meanwhile, the gold-mapped token XAUT benefited from rising risk aversion and attracting capital attention, resulting in structural divergence. Mainstream coins BTC and ETH have not followed the sharp decline for now, mainly because the market's core focus is on the upcoming White House crypto closed-door meeting, and the news expectations have offset some panic caused by external markets. Overall, the Asian trading market has mostly brought short-term sentiment shocks, making it difficult to sustain a rally. What truly determines the future direction are policy news and post-market capital movements in the US market. If panic in the Asia-Pacific market continues to spread, it will only be possible to bring it forwardAre cars saving the market or phones holding them back? Xiaomi's Q2 financial report hides the key to crypto positions in this cycle. After the market closed on August 18, 2026, Xiaomi delivered its Q2 results: quarterly revenue of 108.9 billion yuan, returning to 100 billion yuan; smart electric vehicle deliveries of 104199, up 28.2% year-on-year, but adjusted net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, a sharp year-on-year drop of 42.6%; mobile phone gross margin fell from 11.5% to 8.5%; and the automotive and AI innovation business segment posted an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan. [Veteran's Ramblings] After reading this financial report, my first reaction was—this isn't Xiaomi's story, it's clearly a reflection of the current crypto market. On one side, automobiles delivered over 100,000 units in a single quarter for the first time, with revenue of 23.9 billion yuan—the group's brightest incremental growth curve—but it is still operating at a loss, with an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan in the second quarter. On one side is the mobile phone, with revenue of 42.1 billion yuan and shipments of 31.2 million units. ASP rose to a record high of 1,351 yuan, but the gross margin was scrapped down from 11.5% to 8.5% by the increase in storage chip prices. Isn't this the relationship between BTC and altcoins? BTC is currently stuck in the $63,000 to $64,500 range, like a car manufacturer climbing with a heavy load. Deliveries (hashrate/institutional holdings) are rising, but unit economic models (mining gross profit, net ETF inflows) are squeaking at electricity costs and macro interest rates. What about the knockoffs? A few speculative coins surged 35% in a single day, with the vast majority of liquidity drying up and hitting new lows—a predicament reminiscent of the smartphone business's "volume drop, price rise, gross margin collapse." True$BTC Short-term Strategy Summary (8.19)
· Current Price: ~64,410-64,600 USD, 24h increase 0.35%-0.60%
· Key Ranges:
· Support: 63,600-63,800 (4-hour midline) / 62,400-63,000 / 59,800-60,400
· Resistance: 65,050-65,100 (short-term) / 65,700-66,000 (strong) / 67,000-67,500
Trading Ideas (Short-term slightly bullish, mainly buy on dips, short on resistance as secondary)
· Long (preferred): Stabilize on dip at 63,600-63,800 → Stop loss 63,000, target 65,000→65,700; conservative traders wait for strong support zone at 62,500-63,000
· Short (defensive): First pressure touch at 65,000-65,100 → Stop loss 65,700, target 64,000→63,500; conservative traders short after stagnation at 65,700-66,000
· Breakout tracking: Volume surge and steady above 65,100, light position long, stop loss 64,200, target 65,700-66,000; effective break below 63,600, short on rebound, target 62,500-62,000
Core Logic
① ETF funds sharply reversed: After 5 consecutive days of net outflow totaling about 385.8 million USD, yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of 297.56 million USD. BlackRock IBIT net inflow 160.23 million USD, Fidelity FBTC net inflow 111.9 million USD leading. Institutional funds re-entered below 64,000 USD, forming bottom support.
② Technicals slightly bullish short-term: 4-hour price stands above multiple short-term EMAs, EMAs in bullish alignment, Bollinger Bands slightly opening upward. BTC has maintained an upward channel since the 62,714 low. However, daily EMA60/EMA90 still downward, indicating a large-scale consolidation phase after a major drop; no effective breakout means no confirmed one-sided bull market.
③ Box range consolidation intact: BTC has been sideways between 62,500-66,000 USD for nearly five weeks, volatility extremely compressed. Bollinger Bands continue to contract, signaling daily timeframe is about to choose direction. Break above 65,700 opens upside space; break below 63,600 ends rebound structure.
④ Macro catalysts concentrated: Tonight the Fed July meeting minutes release (Beijing time Thursday 2 AM), market will seek clues on rate cuts and inflation expectations. Meanwhile, White House crypto industry meeting also held today. News may be key trigger to break current deadlock.
⚠️ Personal review record, not investment advice. Imminent convergence end and turning point, volatility may be intense around Fed minutes, strictly stop loss, light positions, wait for direction confirmation. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Entry: Gradually short in the 64500–65000 range Stop loss: Above 65500 Target: 63500–62800 Last night, a derivatives short squeeze forcibly pushed the price to 65000, instantly liquidating $56 million in short positions, but the price quickly fell back to around 64700 after touching 65000. The selling pressure above is unusually heavy. This kind of rebound caused by a short squeeze is the most deceptive for those chasing longs; it looks strong but actually lacks sustainability. Although the ETF had a single-day net inflow of 297 million, ending a three-day outflow streak, it had previously lost 386 million over five days. A one-day rebound does not indicate a trend. Unless the resistance is broken, the short on the rebound remains unchanged. $BTC #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容
Global banking giant Citibank plans to launch institutional Bitcoin custody services, marking a key step in Wall Street's crypto strategy by resolving compliance bottlenecks for large asset managers and corporate funds entering BTC. For a long time, the biggest obstacle for institutions allocating Bitcoin has been compliant custody channels, as most asset management risk controls do not allow assets to be entrusted to native crypto custodians. Citibank, with its bank-level regulatory qualifications, can integrate BTC into traditional asset unified clearing and reporting systems, significantly reducing friction costs for institutional allocation. $BTC
On the business side, Citibank's custody platform will include Bitcoin alongside stocks and cash within the same operating system, so institutions do not need to build entirely new crypto processes. Keys will be managed with bank-grade security standards, addressing core concerns like private key loss or theft. Initially, only BTC will be supported, with plans to expand to multiple digital assets later.
From a macro perspective, this is a landmark signal of traditional finance fully embracing BTC. Spot ETFs open indirect holding channels, while bank custody enables compliant native BTC ownership, broadening institutional capital entry points and providing a long-term expectation of stable incremental funding for Bitcoin. Short-term price impact is limited, with no immediate large buy orders, but it continuously strengthens the narrative of crypto asset compliance, boosting market bullish sentiment. Potential risks should not be overlooked: regulatory details remain inconsistent across regions, and the pace of business rollout is uncertain; centralized bank custody may exacerbate asset centralization, conflicting with Bitcoin's decentralized nature. Overall, Citibank's custody launch will expand institutional capital access and is a medium- to long-term positive for raising BTC's valuation baseline. VanEck released a set of data: out of the 12 surrender indicators they tracked, 8 have already been triggered. Since June, Bitcoin has been trading sideways between 58,000 and 66,500, with the current price about 48% below its all-time high. Saying 8 triggers cannot predict whether the price has bottomed out, but it describes a state: a capitulation is happening and approaching its end. The significance of the current price range: Bitcoin has been trading sideways for more than two months since June, with its price fluctuating narrowly between 58,000 and 66,500. After a pullback from its peak, current valuations are at relatively low levels, but there are no signs of a breakout. VanEck's cycle reference is: in the past three bear markets, it took an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown; the current is the 11th month. I agree with this timeframe: the formation of the bottom structure requires sufficient time, and there is still some distance from the historical average. Signals of ETF Inflows: On Monday, ETFs saw a net inflow of nearly $300 million, marking the strongest single-day performance since May 5. Large inflows occurring amid a sideways price movement means funds are continuously buying through ETF channels. This behavior provides some support during the rate-cutting cycle. My view on the "September to November accumulation phase" VanEck expects the market may enter the accumulation phase from September to November. This judgment is based on cross-verification of the average length of historical cycles and the current market conditions. Similar patterns do not necessarily mean trend replication. Even when the surrender phase is about to end, at the bottomThe main theme of Hesai Technology's $HSAI Q2 financial report is clear: the main lidar business is still ramping up, robotics shipments are growing faster, and SGI is finally starting to generate revenue. However, the growth in revenue and shipments has not simultaneously translated into stronger operating profits. The market will need to look not only at "how many units sold" but also on whether gross margins can remain stable after changes in product mix. Let's look at the core data for Q2 2026: Hesai's revenue was 861 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%; Of this, product revenue was 860 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year. Net profit was 70.6 million yuan, up 60.0% year-on-year; Non-GAAP net profit was 101 million yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year. The company has achieved GAAP profitability for the fifth consecutive quarter, with large-scale delivery of its core business remaining the foundation of its performance. Shipment growth remains the strongest signal. Total LiDAR shipments this quarter reached 628,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 78.4%. Among them, ADAS lidar shipments reached 485,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%; Robotic LiDAR shipments reached 142,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 193.4%. Although the robotics business base is relatively low, its growth rate has already significantly outpaced the automotive business, indicating that Hesai's growth sources are gradually extending from single intelligent driving to broader robot perception scenarios. Profit quality cannot be judged solely by net profit. Revenue and shipments performed well, but the income statement deserves more attention from operational pressures. Q2 Gross Profit$BTC consolidated sideways for two days over the weekend, and today's sharp rally is obvious to any keen observer: it's either a reversal or a move aimed at triggering stop losses of those tens of millions of shorts. After precisely liquidating the short positions, the market immediately lost momentum, and the bulls who chased in became the new batch standing guard.
On the liquidity front, there was no real follow-through: ETFs overall still saw net outflows last week, and tokenized assets on the US stock side continue to divert funds from the spot market. Without fresh capital inflows, relying solely on a chain of liquidations in the futures market, this kind of rally is like building a sandcastle—looks tall but collapses with a single push. Above 64k, layers upon layers are trapped positions; trying to break through with this volume is harder than climbing to the sky.
My view remains unchanged: continue to be bearish. This kind of low-volume bull trap has always been more trap than treat. A rebound to a high level is not a buying opportunity but a better defensive position for the shorts.
⚠️ The above is just an interesting market recap and does not constitute investment advice. August 19th $BTC 64k–64.8k USD range oscillation
Structure: Still stuck in the 62,000–65,000 range (more precisely 62,800–65,000), 64,000 is the recently reclaimed bull-bear dividing line, 64,500–65,000 is the option Call accumulation + 50-day EMA resistance zone
Volume: 24h trading volume up 20% QoQ but absolute level still low, on-chain spot volume at multi-year lows, rebound is not driven by incremental funds but more by short covering + macro expectation shift
Sentiment: RSI 4H about 63, daily about 51, neutral to slightly bullish; futures OI relatively high, funding rate slightly positive, spike washout risk greater than smooth one-sided rise
US July retail weaker than expected → September rate hike probability dropped from ~55% to ~31%, dollar weakens, short-term rate expectations loosen, "bad data = good news" trading returns
Shorts crushed: On 8/18 pushed from 62,900 to 64,500+, 24h total network liquidations 96.6% from shorts, triggering technical short covering. $BTC $SNDK #Anthropic信贷拟超百亿美元 #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 $BTC 8.19$BTC making a double bottom (game theory support rebound)
Rising then falling to enter short-term repair, price running below the moving average, moving average pressing downwards, representing a pullback after a rise. Retesting support is a good opportunity to enter at a low double bottom, do not chase highs, wait for the pullback to stabilize before entering.
Entry: Retest around 63900
Stop loss: Break below 63500 key support to exit effectively
First target: 64690 → 64900 exit in batches
Second target: 65300
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 Market Flash｜Day 3
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓
1. Content Analysis
1. SanDisk
SanDisk fell back to around 1500 today, compared to the recent high of 1820, showing a significant pullback. As mentioned before, the stock plunged sharply to 980 due to divorce asset division news, at which point institutional and quantitative funds entered to bottom-fish, driving a rally over half a month to challenge the 1800 range.
It was previously noted that the rally driven by positive news would not continue indefinitely; a pullback was only a matter of time. Not sure if followers agree with this market logic.
2. SPCX
Rocket’s bullish momentum remains strong recently, currently consolidating sideways in the 139-149 range. On August 20, about 7% of original shares will be unlocked. Based on past capital operation patterns, it is highly likely there will be a pullback washout a few days in advance, followed by a price rally after the unlock.
Recent fluctuation range: high 149, low 139. You can try small position long-short trades based on the range’s highs and lows.
⚠️ Risk Warning: The above is only a summary of public market information and does not constitute any investment advice. If BTC natively supports lending and collateral, how much Ethereum DeFi capital would be diverted?
$BTC $CORE $ETH
The core reason Ethereum can firmly hold the DeFi throne is simple:
Ethereum has complete smart contracts, with a flourishing variety of applications like lending, collateral, and liquidity mining. Meanwhile, the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has long only served as "digital gold" and lacks complex contract capabilities.
In the past, to use BTC for DeFi, there were only two ways:
Either cross-chain wrap BTC onto Ethereum to get wBTC for lending and collateral;
Or go to other public chains and use wrapped Bitcoin assets.
But cross-chain means extra risks: oracle vulnerabilities, bridge contract hacks, and custody trust issues. Many Bitcoin holders would rather let Binance handle it than participate in DeFi cross-chain.
Suppose the BTC ecosystem can natively implement lending, collateral, and interest generation without cross-chain or wrapping—how would the situation change?
1. Which funds are most likely to be diverted?
1) Bitcoin whale holdings
Many whales hold massive BTC and are unwilling to cross-chain but want to unlock liquidity.
Once native collateralized lending is available, this existing capital will be directly activated—this is the first wave of new inflows. This capital never entered Ethereum DeFi before, so it’s not "stealing cake" but creating new cake.
2) Existing cross-chain Bitcoin stock
Currently, a large amount of wBTC in Ethereum DeFi is a mapped asset of Bitcoin.
If BTC native lending experience and security surpass cross-chain wrapped assets, this portion will most certainly flow out of Ethereum DeFi.
3) Conservative, risk-averse DeFi users
These users believe in BTC but want collateral yield. Previously forced to use the ETH ecosystem, once BTC native financial tools mature, they will prioritize returning to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
2. However, ETH DeFi won’t be hollowed out
Many have a misconception: if BTCFi rises, Ethereum DeFi will collapse. Reality won’t be that extreme.
- ETH DeFi has matured over years with complete tools and full tracks: options, perpetuals, RWA, complex combo strategies—products with depth that BTC ecosystem can’t catch up with in the short term.
- User groups are differentiated: some only believe in BTC; others prefer high-risk, high-reward altcoins and will stay on Ethereum.
- Liquidity has path dependency: DeFi’s most important aspect is depth, which requires time to accumulate and can’t be achieved instantly by launching technology.
3. What scale might it be?
- Short term (1-2 years): mostly activating dormant BTC stock itself; direct outflow from Ethereum is limited, likely in the 10%-20% range. The focus is not on stealing existing capital but bringing Bitcoin holders who never played DeFi into the market to grow the overall DeFi pie.
- Medium to long term, if infrastructure matures and security is battle-tested over time: large-scale repatriation of cross-chain BTC funds will significantly squeeze Ethereum DeFi’s BTC-related business, rewriting the overall DeFi capital landscape.
4. Key variable: quality of infrastructure implementation
The vision is beautiful but rests on the premise:
Whether infrastructure (like CORE as a BTCFi base) can be secure, low-threshold, and free of serious vulnerabilities.
Everyone can tell the narrative, but on-chain TVL, real lending volume, and security records are the final exam.
BTC native finance is not simply an "Ethereum killer."
A more likely scenario is: DeFi evolves from Ethereum’s monopoly into a dual-strong pattern where "ETH handles diverse innovation, BTCFi serves conservative whales and Bitcoin stock."At the market level, the morning session generally maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. BTC repeatedly tested the 200-week moving average support near 64,400, intensifying bullish and bearish tug-of-war. The market was highly cautious, and most funds were waiting for news of the White House crypto closed-door meeting. BTC-ETFs returned to large net inflows the previous trading day, but the pace of pre-market inflows slowed significantly, with incremental capital inflows temporarily interrupted, and the market still dominated by stock trading. Mainstream coins are diverging, with ETH weaker than BTC, fluctuating between $1880 and $1920. ETH-ETF funds have seen slight outflows, and institutional bullish sentiment is weak; OKB has emerged independently from the trend, highlighting the platform's risk aversion and grouping characteristics; Other mainstream coins such as SOL, XRP, and BNB have almost no independent market movements, passively fluctuating with the broader market, and trading activity is relatively low. The hottest fake sector remains focused on xSNDK. Although it has been continuously correcting recently, it still dominates the top trending searches, with bulls and bears battling at high levels. Speculative capital rotation accelerated, with short-term surges in small-cap coins like DOS and PUMP, which were temporary speculation by existing funds. The sustainability of the market could not be guaranteed, and previously fading hot stocks like BEAT and $APR were continuously withdrawn by funds. On the contract side, overall positions have slightly declined, with leveraged funds unwilling to actively bet on one-sided market moves. Clearing orders across the network are concentrated at key resistance and support levels, and the probability of short-term leverage sweeping is relatively high. Overall, the market currently lacks a unified main theme, with funds testing everywhere. It is difficult to break out of a sustained one-sided rally until major news is realized.#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 RWA is reshaping the flow of funds in the crypto space at a pace far beyond expectations. Tokenized stock holders doubled from 670,000 to 1.31 million in one month, with monthly transfer volume soaring from less than 10 billion to 23.1 billion, a 179% increase. The total market value reached $2.8 billion, and the RWA share expanded from 5% to 15%. This is not a test; it is a large-scale migration.
Wall Street has laid its cards on the table: BlackRock's CEO stated that tokenization is the next big trend, with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley entering the market. Ondo Stocks launched less than a year ago, with TVL surpassing $1.01 billion and cumulative trading volume reaching 27 billion.
But one detail is overlooked: the total value of RWA in DeFi protocols is $3.98 billion, a sixfold increase in one year; the total issuance of tokenized assets is 34.55 billion, but only 1.15 billion is actually used on-chain. Most assets are still idle.
Where is the money coming from? From the crypto space. BTC hovered around 63,000 for over a month, gold hit new highs, U.S. stocks are rising, while crypto is sideways. The same batch of funds exited Bitcoin ETFs and moved into gold ETFs and tokenized stocks. Money follows trends, not stories.
The fundamentals of BTC and ETH haven't changed, but funds are being reallocated. The door to buying U.S. stocks on-chain is open; the SEC is still hesitating, but Wall Street and millions of people have already entered the market. $BTC bounced from 62,600 to 65,000 this round, looking like it’s stabilizing, but I told my brothers: don’t get ahead of yourself, this is still a rebound, not a reversal.
ETF finally saw inflows but they’re weak. On Monday, the spot BTC ETF ended the previous week’s net outflow of over $385 million and turned to net inflows, but on Tuesday the flow went straight to zero, indicating institutions are just tentatively replenishing, not continuously bottom-fishing with real money.
Technically, it’s being crushed by long-term moving averages. The daily RSI at 51.95 just passed the midpoint, price is above the 20/50-day moving averages (63,800/63,900), but the 100-day at 66,416 and 200-day at 69,079 are both in downtrends, with a dense liquidation zone around 64,700, forming a wall of selling pressure above.
Tonight’s FOMC minutes are the real variable. The market prices in no rate hike in September, but officials are divided: hawkish minutes and a stronger dollar would push BTC to retest the 62,200 liquidation pool; dovish minutes could push it up to 66K. Right now, macro liquidity completely overshadows on-chain fundamentals.
Trading plan: don’t chase near 64,600; reduce positions before the 64,700 liquidation wall; if it retests the 62,600-62,800 support zone with volume and holds, you can lightly buy in with a stop loss at 62,000; if it breaks 62,000, look for 60,000. De-leverage before the minutes tonight, don’t bet on direction.Unlisted AI giants' revenue falling short of expectations triggered a one-sided correction in semiconductors, widening the Nasdaq's 1.32% decline compared to the Dow's 0.22% drop, indicating the market is squeezing pure expectation valuations. Whether crypto risk assets can become desensitized is the core contradiction.
From the market performance perspective, funds are withdrawing from upstream hardware, with AMD down 4.30%, Broadcom down 3.20%, and Nvidia down 2.36%, directly dragging down tech-heavy indexes. SanDisk weakening alongside implies the premium logic for memory chips is being suppressed, but the broader US stock market has not experienced indiscriminate selling.
The priority order of asset-driven factors has shifted to: downstream revenue realization ability outweighing upstream chip valuation premiums, which in turn outweighs the macro liquidity environment. When risk appetite for tech stocks is impaired, if the US dollar index and interest rate expectations remain stable, the liquidity linkage between safe-haven assets and crypto assets will diverge.
On the upside scenario, if the crypto market shows strong resilience during the US tech stock adjustment period and BTC exhibits strong desensitization characteristics, funds will regard crypto assets as an independent risk hedge pool. To trigger this scenario, observe no outflow of crypto funds after the US semiconductor sector stops falling; the scenario fails if BTC follows the decline and breaks key downside levels.
On the downside scenario, if the US tech stock valuation cuts trigger cross-market deleveraging, high-beta crypto assets will face secondary liquidity withdrawal. As AMD and Nvidia's declines deepen, dragging the Nasdaq further down, weak US market risk sentiment will transmit through the liquidity chain to the crypto sector.
The current failure condition for cross-market transmission logic is: the Dow and broad market indexes' catch-up declines turn into comprehensive contraction, or the AI hardware sector quickly recovers losses and rebuilds bullish consensus. During this period, marginal changes in the US dollar and interest rates will re-dominate the rebalancing of yield differentials among assets.
The key variables to watch over the next 7 days are the US semiconductor sector's stop-fall signals, BTC's correlation slope during US market open hours, and the allocation preference of safe-haven funds across cross-market assets.
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值How much did it crash? Plunging 10%, near 130. Not bearish. SpaceX bought in the last wave at 108, already taking profit at 148. Around 8/20, FOMC minutes and second tier unlocked. SPCX August closing price and cumulative transferable limit. Why watch a pullback? Last time it rallyed the bears, will it unlock again the second time? On 8/3, the intraday low was 104.83; on 8/17, the intraday high was 149.80. Over about ten trading days, the largest increase was nearly 43%. On 8/12, it touched 149.60; on 8/17, it reached 149.80, but both times it didn't break above 150. On the unlock day of 8/6, trading volume was 255 million shares; on 8/17, trading volume was 110 million. Unlocking Japan easily leads to increased volume, so you can't rely solely on this comparison to judge the peak; But when I saw it twice below 150, I chose not to chase it. I treat 150 as a pressing pressure. 135 is the IPO offering price, and it also rebounded on 8/10; 130 corresponds to the 8/10 low of 130.17. If the market closes below 125, I'll leave; the premise of buying on dips is invalid. SPCX August daily chart, 8/3–8/17 News also rushed together. The East Coast released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting on 8/19, and it was already the early morning of 8/20 Beijing time. That meeting maintained the interest rate range of 3.50%–3.75% by a 9-to-3 ratio, with three members advocating for a 25 basis point hike. If the minutes are more hawkish than the statements, high-valuation growth stocks usually come under pressure first, and SPCXs may also be affected. July's CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than June; month-on-monthStarting February 2022
February 4th is the Labor Data release day, data released at 21:30, BTC experienced a rapid rise
On February 10th at 21:30, the CPI was released, and from the 4th until 20:00 on the 10th, the price kept rising.
From the 10th onwards, there were no 5-star data points to record or observe for the rest of February.
Review summary: The market was in a bear market state, on the 4th the data triggered a rally, continuous rise, and the rally ended at a high point when the CPI data was released.
If you want to go long, choose the low points. Timing the lows is an art.
In a bear market, CPI released at a high point, regardless of being positive or negative, often represents the end of a phase of the market. The correct strategy is to clear long positions before the release and short on rallies.
Around 11 AM on February 24th, the Russia-Ukraine war suddenly broke out.
From the start of the war on the 24th, the market kept rising until March 2nd (6 days) (very similar to February 28, 2026, when the US-Iran war broke out, the negative news led to a market decline lasting until March 5th)
Review summary: The market was in a bear market state, the war broke out suddenly, and on the 24th the market was at a low point (it had already retraced about 23% from the previous high to the outbreak moment), this could be the start of a reversal and going long. The direction is the starting point of a bull trend (when predicting the overall trend). A Bitcoin mining company quietly hoarded nearly 5% of the Ethereum supply. $ETH $BTC
Bitmine (BMNR, associated with Tom Lee) just disclosed holding 5.82M ETH, valued at about $11B, accounting for nearly 4.8% of the total ETH supply, having added 9,926 ETH this round. Tom Lee (Fundstrat) is calling tokenization and Agentic AI the forces breaking ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend, also saying ETH might outperform BTC.
But the market hasn't caught up in 24h: ETH currently at $1,917 (+0.2%), ETH/BTC = 0.02963 (-0.07%), almost unchanged.
My observation: The big players' call for a breakout is backed by real money hoarding (nearly 5% supply is not just talk), but the 24h market shows no reaction yet; either funds haven't entered or the timing isn't right. Don't rush to chase at this position; first watch if ETH/BTC can volume-wise reclaim above 0.03.
Risks: Tom Lee's "$5,000" is a personal view, not a guarantee; if 5.82M ETH is truly sold, it would significantly impact liquidity; ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend won't reverse with just one bullish candle.
Can this "hoarding faction" break ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend this round, or is it just another round of talk ahead of funds? $ETH Distinguish between internal capital rotation and genuine external inflow to avoid the biggest market illusion
Everyone is eagerly awaiting incremental capital to enter the market and trigger a major rally, but the vast majority of traders cannot tell what is true incremental capital and what is merely internal capital reshuffling within the market.
Pseudo-incremental capital refers to internal rotation of existing funds within the crypto circle. Selling $BTC to buy $ETH, or selling ETH to switch to BTC. The capital never actually comes from outside the circle; it’s just money already in the market moving between positions.
This kind of capital flow only creates strength and weakness rotations among coins. One coin may surge sharply while another weakens simultaneously. It can spark localized short-term rallies but is insufficient to drive a market-wide bull run.
True external incremental capital comes from outside capital that has never participated in the crypto market before—real money entering for the first time. It’s neither old players switching positions nor contract market longs and shorts gambling.
The market characteristics of true incremental capital arrival are clear: BTC and ETH strengthen simultaneously, newly created active addresses on-chain continuously rise, and the overall market capitalization expands rather than just shifting between coins.
In reality, the vast majority of price increases are due to existing capital competition. Existing capital can create profit opportunities and bring swing trading chances, but don’t mistake internal rotation for a signal that a major bull market has begun.
When waiting for a rally, more than chasing bullish candlesticks, it’s crucial to discern whether the capital entering is old money within the circle or new capital coming from outside. Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 5%, closing at 11,992. Chip stocks were broadly hit, and the Nasdaq also fell 1.33%.
Two factors hit simultaneously:
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged, reaching a nearly 19-year high.
Rising long-term bond yields mean the market is repricing financing costs.
For capital-intensive industries like semiconductors, higher interest rates increase valuation pressure.
On the other hand, the US and Iran are deadlocked in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices up. Rising oil prices → inflation expectations heat up → rate cut expectations are suppressed → growth stocks continue to be under pressure. Both factors tighten simultaneously, with semiconductors taking the brunt.
————
A 5% drop in one day is not uncommon; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is naturally volatile. But the underlying logic is worth noting: this is not a company earnings shock, but a change in the macro environment.
Interest rates and geopolitics are both applying pressure. If long-term bond yields continue to rise, the valuation baseline for semiconductors may need further adjustment.
In the short term, watch if sentiment release is sufficient; in the medium term, watch interest rate trends and geopolitical developments. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, nor panic.
This is my personal observation; data should be based on official disclosures.Anthropic's annual revenue fell short of expectations, and all three major US stock indices dropped. But the Dow only fell 0.22%, the Nasdaq 1.32%; can this really be called a crash? The main declines were in AI chips: Nvidia down 2.36%, AMD 4.30%, Broadcom 3.20%. Other sectors in the market barely moved.
More subtly, Anthropic isn't even publicly listed. A private company's revenue miss dragging down the entire semiconductor sector sentiment shows how much of this AI round's pricing is based on expectations versus actual revenue. When revenue growth was fast before, no one questioned it; now that it's slightly lower, everyone is pulling back.
SanDisk is also falling; yesterday I said chasing highs only to give back half, and today the memory price hike trend is also retreating. This means the only AI sub-sector with some recent heat is cooling off.
I actually want to see if BTC will catch on. If US stock AI continues to cool down while crypto pretends nothing is wrong, that would be true desensitization. But it won't last long.What does this have to do with us? Three layers.
First layer, the money is being drained. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, three companies with a combined valuation of over 3.6 trillion, are all competing for public market funds. Crypto, as a high-volatility asset, will find it hard to get big money before the AI IPO frenzy ends.
Second layer, the narrative follows. If Anthropic really goes public at a 2 trillion valuation, the ceiling for the entire AI sector will be pushed up. AI projects in the crypto space with real business backing will see their valuation logic pulled higher accordingly. But conversely, if valuation overextension causes the market to start doubting AI’s profitability, the risk will spread to the entire tech sector, and the crypto market won’t escape.
Third layer, computing power itself is being repriced. With 6.5 billion in annualized revenue and a 2 trillion valuation, Wall Street’s pricing of computing power has far surpassed any traditional industry. When computing power becomes an asset that can be priced, financed, and securitized, Bitcoin, as the most original expression of computing power, will see its long-term ceiling only raised, never lowered.
Here’s my view. In the short term, the AI giants going public en masse squeezes liquidity in the crypto market, which is unavoidable. But looking longer term, when global capital starts allocating computing power as a core asset, Bitcoin, as the original benchmark of the computing power economy, will see its valuation ceiling systematically lifted.
The more AI burns money, the more expensive computing power becomes, the less Bitcoin loses.
$BTC $SNDK #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin's most cyclical long-term indicator. Historically, it has formed major cycle bottoms near it multiple times, but touching it does not mean an immediate reversal. The final trend depends on three core variables: the weekly closing position, the strength of capital support, and macro news resonance. The current 200-week moving average is around $64,500, with the current price repeatedly rubbing near the moving average. The following scenarios can be divided into three scenarios: Scenario One: Quickly stabilizing the moving average, with the weekly moving average closing above (a bullish path). If the weekly price rises above 64,500 with increased volume and the weekly closing holds steadily, it means this dip is just a pin test for support. Long-term whales and fixed investment funds will accelerate their entry, with a short-term rebound challenging the resistance range of 67,000-68,000; However, to break out of a new wave of trend, BTC-ETFs need to return to continuous net inflows, combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts to provide incremental capital drivers. Relying solely on existing funds on the market is unlikely to trigger a major rebound immediately. Scenario 2: Prolonged repeated oscillating grinding at the moving average level (neutral path, current highest probability) The price is oscillating back and forth between 63,000 and 65,000, with ongoing bullish and bearish tug-of-war. A long upper and lower shadow lines close on the weekly K-line, unable to choose a direction for a long time. In this state, the market enters a prolonged bottoming cycle, with leveraged funds constantly being liquidated. Short-term market fluctuations dominate, mostly in swing movements, making it difficult to break out of one-sided trends. Funds will continue to wait for key signals such as the White House crypto meeting and Federal Reserve policy before making decisions. Emotion$BTC Many people are now focused on $65,000.
But I’m more concerned about $66,400.
Why?
Because $65,000 has already been repeatedly tested by BTC; what can truly change the range structure is a complete breakthrough of the key resistance above.
If BTC breaks through $66,400 with strong volume, then the consolidation structure of the past few months may see a significant change.
At that point, discussing "whether it’s a breakout" no longer makes much sense.
The market will tell you itself.
Conversely, if BTC gets pushed down again in the $65,000-$66,400 range, then this rally is most likely just a rebound within the range.
So don’t try to guess the top or the bottom right now.
Mark the key levels.
$63,000 — the bulls’ defensive line.
$65,000 — short-term resistance.
$66,400 — the real breakout point.
BTC has reached the doorstep of choosing a direction.
Next, it’s about who breaks first.Interest Rate Storm Hits: From Stocks to Bitcoin, All Assets Need Repricing
📈 First, look at the data
The US 30-year Treasury yield broke through 5.30% last night, hitting the highest level in 19 years.
This number is not just a cold indicator—it is the "anchor" for global asset pricing. When it fluctuates, stocks, exchange rates, and loan interest rates all move accordingly.
🔥 Why did it suddenly rise so high? Three factors combined:
1. Geopolitical tensions heating up
Trump threatens military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world's oil passes.
Oil prices surged to $91/barrel in three days, inflation can't be contained, so interest rates can't come down.
2. Corporate bond issuance spree
AI companies are frantically issuing bonds to build data centers, at 12 times the average annual level of the past decade.
Too many bonds and not enough buyers have forced yields sharply higher.
3. "No takers" for US debt
The total US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with experts predicting it could reach $50 trillion by 2029.
Who will buy it? No answer. The market is responding with sell-offs.
📉 Market reaction:
· US chip sector stocks plunged 5.5% in a single day, Nasdaq dropped 355 points.
· A-shares slightly rose instead, Shanghai Composite missed 4000 by 6 points.
· Bitcoin is bottoming around $64,000, ETH below $1900.
ETF funds continue to flow in, institutions are buying at lows, but retail confidence is insufficient, so prices can't rise.
⏳ What to watch next?
The Fed meeting minutes will be released tonight; if they signal rate cuts, BTC may trigger a rebound.
🧠 Core judgment:
This is not a short-term fluctuation but a global repricing.
In a high interest rate environment, overvalued tech stocks, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to face pressure.
The storm has arrived, and the logic of asset allocation is being rewritten.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The SEC has finally drawn a path for crypto, but don't rush to call a bull market yet
On August 18, the SEC proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulation" draft, a securities issuance framework specifically tailored for the crypto industry.
Three core points:
First, two fundraising exemptions: small projects can raise up to 5 million within 4 years without registration; large projects can raise up to 75 million within 12 months but must submit financial reports and continuous disclosures. Second, a "safe harbor"—if the project team completes all promised management tasks or permanently shuts down, the tokens will no longer be considered securities. Third, federal law takes precedence over state law, so no need to seek approval from each state individually.
In plain terms: BTC, ETH, and SOL were jointly recognized as "digital commodities" by the SEC and CFTC in March this year, so their status is already stable; this safe harbor provides a "graduation" path for tokens still suspected of being securities.
But don't rush in yet
This is just a proposal, not law. There is a 60-day review period, followed by revisions and votes, with the earliest implementation expected in 2027. Also, this was pushed by SEC Chair Gensler himself after the CLARITY Act stalled in Congress (Senate vote postponed to September 15), essentially a "If Congress won't legislate, I'll act first" move. He himself admits legislation is more lasting, and SEC rules can flip with a new chair at any time.
Regulatory certainty is positive, but before it materializes, BTC, ETH, and SOL will continue as before; the market will still depend on liquidity and macro conditions.
Don't FOMO, just watch for now.
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 The Solana mainnet has just activated an update: slot times have been reduced from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. A 50-millisecond change might not be noticeable to ordinary users. But for a public chain, this is an adjustment at the underlying consensus level. Since mainnet launch in 2020, Solana's block time has always been 400 milliseconds—a number that has now been rewritten. This level of parameter adjustment is not arbitrary; it requires extensive testing and validation. Implementation means the network has verified the stability of this change through the testnet. What does 400ms to 350ms mean? Slot time is the interval from one block to the next, which determines the network's theoretical throughput limit. Reducing slots by 50 milliseconds means the network can handle more transactions. But this is not without a cost. Faster slot times mean: nodes need quicker network connections, hardware needs higher processing power, and validators need a more stable operating environment. Details developers need to pay attention To one thing worth noting: some SDK constants have not yet been updated. This can cause some applications that rely on these constants to experience abnormalities during the transition period. If developers want to adapt new parameters immediately after the Epoch boundary, it is recommended not to rely on SDK constants, but to manually determine whether the feature is enabled based on the Epoch boundary. Long-term perspective: Brennan Watt mentioned in the announcement that the long-term plan is to put these parameters on-chain so clients can query them directly. If this designA couple of days ago, I wrote an article about $GPS. In the article, I said that $0.016 for $GPS cannot be shorted yet. Before inserting the pin, my judgment was quite correct. Now it's in the pin, near $0.015. At this point, some friends might be tempted to short-sell this coin. However, I oppose chasing short sellers. Personally, I believe it's not time to chase short stocks. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio has risen sharply, while the contract open interest is declining. This indicates that at this level, some short positions have cut losses and exited. Moreover, looking at the data, there haven't been many new short sellers yet, nor have any previous bulls been overwhelmed. The data shows that everything is as it was, so I don't think this insertion means a decline. Let's look at the data from a longer period. It can be seen that contract open interest remains high, and the long-short ratio is low. This indicates that there is still a lot of capital shorting in the market. But as I mentioned before, having funds to short does not necessarily mean a price drop. Personally, I believe that in this situation, a decline is extremely harmful and brings no benefit to the market players. Also, yesterday OKX Venture sold some of its tokens, totaling nearly one million US dollars. This is actually not a small number. However, this level of sale has not attracted much attention in the marketWhy is ETH always heavily dragged down by concentrated unlocking sell pressure in the same rebound environment?
In the same market recovery cycle, BTC can smoothly expand upward space, while ETH often rises a little and then faces pressure to fall back. Many attribute this to insufficient buying power, but the deeper root cause lies in two completely different structures of trapped positions.
$BTC has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, with participants spanning over a decade. The holding costs are extremely dispersed, ranging from very low-cost early holdings to high-level institutional holdings during bull markets, with holders distributed across various price ranges. When the market starts to rebound, the unlocking sell pressure is released gradually and does not erupt concentratedly at a single price point, giving bulls enough time to absorb the sell orders.
The situation with $ETH is completely different. A large number of users entered concentratedly in the mid to late stages of the last bull market. Many DeFi participants and staking users built positions in large volumes within almost the same price range. This creates a large, highly concentrated block of trapped positions.
Whenever the price rebounds close to this cost range, a large group of holders waiting to break even and exit will collectively choose to sell. It's not that the bulls have no strength, but every small upward push must face a tide-like wave of unlocking and cashing out.
In practice, it is easy to observe this phenomenon: the overall market sentiment is good, BTC steadily rises, but ETH repeatedly faces pressure as it approaches resistance levels.
When trading ETH in waves, you cannot just look at the overall market sentiment; you must fully assess the resistance caused by the concentrated trapped positions above. Even in optimistic markets, the dense unlocking zone will still become a very difficult barrier to overcome. Special reminder:
On August 19, the White House will convene a meeting with crypto giants such as Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, as well as traditional financial executives from Nasdaq, CME, etc. Trump himself, along with the SEC Chair and CFTC Chair, are expected to attend. The summit comes on the eve of the Senate's procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (the "Crypto Clarity Act") scheduled for September 15, requiring 60 votes.
From the perspective of industry regulation, the SEC and CFTC do not need to wait for Congress to legislate before taking action. Both agencies can advance rulemaking within the existing legal framework. This meeting could potentially bring significant positive developments. Although it won't change the overall trend, there may be unexpected sharp rallies. Until the meeting results are announced, short selling should be approached cautiously! July’s sharp decline wasn’t simply a story of weak prices. It was largely a leverage reset after months of aggressive positioning. During the first two months, nearly $200 billion of leverage had built up across the market. Sentiment became heavily bullish, and excessive borrowing amplified every move higher. But leverage works both ways. When prices rise, it accelerates the rally. When prices reverse, the same leverage can turn into a chain reaction of liquidations. The estimated $85 billion deSanDisk's upper shadow on this candle is more extreme than expected
Last night, SanDisk surged to 1827, but then plunged directly to a low of 1565.89 in the early morning, closing at 1612.31. The 24-hour low was 1565.89 and the high was 1761.75, a difference of nearly 200 points. Looking at this bearish candle alone, it is indeed a signature "high-level long upper shadow + huge volume turnover" — 24-hour trading volume was 3.484 billion USDT, with a turnover rate of 5.70%, indicating very active chip exchange today.
Why did SanDisk fall harder than anyone else?
Three data points explain it:
1. Cumulative gains were too large: from a 52-week low of $40.1 all the way up to 1827, the most elastic pure NAND stock in the AI hardware chain
2. Fragile holding structure: high leverage positions concentrated, Quant funds liquidated heavily when sector sentiment weakened, reinforcing selling pressure
3. Technical breakdown of key levels: closing at 1612 has already broken below MA20 (1646.33), current price is tangled near MA5 (1599.89) and MA10 (1609.37), short-term moving averages have started to weaken
In terms of trading: if tonight's US Treasury auction results are dovish and yields continue to fall, the probability of SanDisk stabilizing around 1600 will increase. But if US Treasury demand is weak and liquidity tightens further, the storage sector may face another hit.
$SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 Macro positive factors have materialized, but the crypto market shows typical positive factor fatigue, with prices surging then retreating, conservative capital, and insufficient new inflows. In the short term, it is more likely to maintain an extreme stock-based consolidation.
Macro perspective: Significant weakening in non-farm payrolls, rising expectations of rate cuts
- New jobs: Non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July (expected +80,000), marking the first negative growth this year.
- Revisions down: Combined revisions for May and June reduced by 103,000 jobs, reinforcing the cooling trend in the labor market.
- Wage weakness: Average hourly wage growth slowed, easing inflationary pressure.
- Market pricing: After data release, market bets on Fed rate hikes this year cooled down, while expectations for rate cuts increased.
- Dollar weakness: The US dollar index came under pressure and declined, benefiting dollar-denominated risk assets.
Market reaction: Pump-and-dump, typical positive factor fatigue
- BTC: After the data, it briefly surged to $65,339, then retreated, closing with a narrowed gain of 0.77%, showing insufficient buying confidence near resistance.
- ETH: Briefly tested $1,942 before falling back, then oscillated between $1,850–$1,880 for several days without effective breakout.
- Altcoins: SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc., showed poor correlation, passively following BTC’s fluctuations, lacking independent trends.
Market issues: Stock competition, low sentiment
- Conservative capital:
- Top institutional buyers’ willingness cooled, large holders concentrated selling at highs.
- Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows, indicating cautious institutional sentiment.
- Sentiment and inflows:
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovered around 40, neutral to slightly low, not significantly improved by macro positives.
- Stablecoin market lacked large-scale issuance, insufficient new capital inflows.
- Bitcoin spot demand continued to weaken; rebounds relied more on short-term liquidity from futures markets.
- Technical “fakeouts”:
- BTC repeatedly failed to break above $63,300 with low volume, unsustainable breakout attempts.
- ETH pressured between $1,900–$1,940, unable to hold effectively.
Trading strategy: Hold and observe, wait for volume breakout
- Avoid chasing highs: Low-volume surges are mostly "fakeouts," avoid buying near resistance.
- No bottom or top guessing: Prioritize holding and observing before clear volume breakout, reduce frequent trading.
- Wait for breakout: Monitor if BTC can effectively break above $63,300 and ETH can hold above $1,940 with significant volume increase; adjust strategy upon clear volume-driven direction.
The macro downside phase has largely passed, but the absence of new inflows and low sentiment suppress upward momentum. In the short term, a range-bound consolidation is highly probable. The approach should be patient waiting for signals, avoiding chasing or guessing, and responding after a volume breakout.Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, may rewrite a long-standing default value relied upon by wallets: ordinary ETH transfers will no longer uniformly be calculated at 21,000 Gas. According to a CoinDesk report on August 18, transfers to addresses that have been used before will still have a base cost of 21,000 Gas; however, if the recipient address has never appeared in Ethereum's records before, the transaction will incur an additional 183,600 units of "state Gas" to create and permanently store the new account state. This is not a simple fee increase but a network move to make the long-term storage cost of "first-time account creation" explicit. For ordinary users, the most intuitive change is that for the same ETH transfer, whether the recipient address has been used before may determine the final fee. For wallets, block explorers, and fee estimators, the previous logic of treating 21,000 as both the minimum and maximum value needs to be updated. The real test of the upgrade is the software infrastructure. If wallets continue to estimate fees using the old rules, they may quote insufficient fees, cause transaction failures, or create a confusing user experience; exchanges and custody systems also need to incorporate "new address" detection in batch withdrawals, address whitelisting, and risk control alerts. The significance of this change is that Ethereum is moving account state from an "invisible backend cost" to a billing model that both users and applications must understand. The upgrade has not yet been launched, and specific parameters should be based on the final developer announcement. This article is for technical information only and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK Brief Commentary: From 1821 down to 1601, cutting gains but not logic
$SNDK quickly retraced from 1821 to 1601 in this round, with a very clear core assessment: this is a high-level gain correction, not a fundamental logic collapse.
Previously, the AI storage narrative fermented, earnings exceeded expectations, combined with a violent single-day surge, causing short-term profit-taking to pile up heavily. The deep pullback is purely a capital realization behavior, not a deterioration of the sector.
However, many are easily misled by the oversold rebound near 1600, mistakenly thinking the adjustment is over.
From the short-term structure perspective, bears still dominate; the rebound is only a technical repair, and the trend has not reversed.
The key dividing lines are very clear:
1600–1615 is the short-term life-or-death defense zone
1640–1650 is the watershed for rebound strength
1690–1700 is the true breakout reversal point from the weak structure
Fundamentally, there is no weakening at all:
Data center business is exploding, gross margin remains high, long-term major client lock-in plus steady growth targets are gradually freeing NAND from traditional cyclical attributes.
The market is no longer trading on "whether there is AI demand,"
but on whether ultra-high growth can sustain the current extreme valuation.
In summary:
The long-term logic remains solid, but short-term gains are severely overextended, requiring time and price to fully digest.
Good companies are not afraid of falling prices, only of buying at excessively high premiums.
Logic hasn’t collapsed, valuation digestion is complete, that’s when the next safest opportunity arises.
What do you think: is this a healthy shakeout, or the start of expectation overextension being realized?
$SNDK
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 1. On the Hormuz Strait side
Currently, no substantial breakthrough news has been seen, but the geopolitical risk premium remains suppressed without retreat. Instead, the high level of US Treasury yields has pulled back, providing some breathing room, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.708%. KORU has been extremely volatile recently; on August 3rd, the market price was $15.87, rising nearly 6% in one day, while on July 29th it fell to a low of $10.58. The triple-leveraged ETF's elasticity is fully demonstrated. SOXL is also strong, closing at $140.25 on August 7th, up nearly 6% in one day, but it has still been in a large oscillation pattern since the end of July. For geopolitics, just keep an eye on the news and avoid chasing highs.
2. Highlights on the crypto side
BTC is steady above $64,000, reaching a high of $64,550 last night, driven by short squeeze liquidations, with about $57.4 million in short positions cleared; this does not necessarily mean new funds have entered. XRP is repeatedly contesting the $1 mark, while SOL's trading volume has increased by 25%, showing relative resilience. Regarding the summit, the SEC just released the first formal regulatory framework draft targeting crypto assets, with a 60-day public comment period. This is a milestone for the industry and more substantive than any previous summit. Tokenization is a long-term trend; short-term market moves still follow macro conditions.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 On the left, the 5 on-chain confirmation indicators you must check before catching knives (checkbox) When it comes to catching knife throws, candlesticks may trick you, messages may fool you, but on-chain data can't fool you—as long as you know how to read them. The following five items are my fixed checkmark process before opening a position on the left side every time. I only allowed myself to do it if I hit at least 4 out of 5 items; Only one or two items hit? That was a trap, not an opportunity. ✅ Indicator 1: Exchange Netflow must turn from positive to negative. What to look at: the amount of coins flowing into the exchange minus the amount of coins flowing out of the exchange. Confirmation signal: net outflow lasting more than 7 days. In other words, coins are moving from exchanges to cold wallets. Why: Exchanges are places to sell goods. Sending coins in means selling; Withdrawing coins outward means intending to hold onto them. CORE and BICO have been a cautionary tale these past few days—net flow remains positive, indicating market makers are trading in CEXs to dump their shares, but you think it's the bottom. ⚠️ An abnormal single-day net inflow may be due to rebalancing of hot and cold wallets on exchanges. Look at the 7-day moving average, don't just look at the single-day average. ✅ Indicator 2: Exchange Reserves continue to decline What to watch: the total stock of the token in each CEX wallet. Confirmation signal: The reserve slope is downward and lasts more than 30 days. Logic: Reserve decrease = instantly sellable chips decrease = physical inventory under selling pressure is drained. This is a feature that has appeared at every Bitcoin bottom since 2020. In contrast, BEAT was pierced by the big playersETH Real-Time Trading Volume Data Analysis (August 19, 09:42)
ETH's total market trading volume in the past 24 hours was $11.68 billion, down 8.74% compared to the 7-day average. Overall trading activity is weaker than BTC, with no signs yet of concentrated capital inflows causing volume spikes. Breaking down the structure, the contract market trading volume was $8.21 billion, accounting for 70.3% of the total volume, remaining the main driver of price discovery; spot trading was only $3.47 billion, mainly short-term turnover within exchanges, with weak willingness from off-exchange incremental funds to actively buy.
After the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes last night, there was a brief volume spike followed by a rapid decline. During the rebound phase, trading volume failed to sustain expansion, indicating a lack of continuous buying support in this recovery. At the order book level, the $1895–$1920 range is the most densely traded zone and the current short-term volume center. When prices oscillate within this range, volume remains low, only briefly increasing near the upper or lower boundaries.
Judging from the volume-price relationship, if the price subsequently breaks above $1940, it must be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume to drive short-covering and a short squeeze; a volume-less surge is likely a short-term impulse and prone to quick pullback. ETH-ETF continues to see small net outflows, reflecting insufficient institutional confidence. Currently, funds are waiting on signals from the White House's closed-door crypto meeting, with most choosing to remain on the sidelines and unwilling to increase trading positions actively.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK If BTC natively supports lending and collateral, how much Ethereum DeFi capital would be diverted?
$BTC $CORE $ETH
The core reason Ethereum can firmly hold the DeFi throne is simple:
Ethereum has complete smart contracts, with a flourishing variety of applications like lending, collateral, and liquidity mining. Meanwhile, the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has long only served as "digital gold" and lacks complex contract capabilities.
In the past, to use BTC in DeFi, there were only two ways:
Either cross-chain wrap BTC onto Ethereum to get wBTC for lending and collateral;
Or go to other public chains and use wrapped Bitcoin assets.
But cross-chain means extra risks: oracle vulnerabilities, bridge contract hacks, and custody trust issues. Many Bitcoin holders would rather keep their assets idle on Binance than participate in DeFi cross-chain.
Suppose the BTC ecosystem can natively implement lending, collateral, and interest generation without cross-chain or wrapping—how would the situation change?
1. Which funds are most likely to be diverted?
1) Bitcoin whale holdings
Many whales hold massive amounts of BTC, unwilling to cross-chain but wanting to unlock liquidity.
Once native collateralized lending is available, this existing capital will be directly activated—this is the first wave of new inflows. This capital never entered Ethereum DeFi before, so it’s not "stealing cake" but creating new cake.
2) Existing cross-chain Bitcoin stock
Currently, a large amount of wBTC in Ethereum DeFi is a mapped asset of Bitcoin.
If BTC native lending experience and security surpass cross-chain wrapped assets, this portion will most certainly flow out of Ethereum DeFi.
3) Conservative, risk-averse DeFi users
These users believe in BTC but want collateral yield. Previously forced to use the ETH ecosystem, once BTC native financial tools mature, they will prioritize returning to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
2. However, ETH DeFi won’t be hollowed out
Many have a misconception: if BTCFi rises, Ethereum DeFi will collapse. Reality won’t be that extreme.
- ETH DeFi has matured over years with complete tools and full tracks: options, perpetuals, RWA, complex combo strategies—products with depth that BTC ecosystem can’t catch up with in the short term.
- User groups are segmented: some only believe in BTC; others prefer high-risk, high-reward altcoins and will stay on Ethereum.
- Liquidity has path dependence: DeFi’s most important factor is depth, which requires time to accumulate and can’t be achieved instantly by launching technology.
3. What scale might it be?
- Short term (1-2 years): mostly activating dormant BTC stock itself, limited direct outflow from Ethereum, likely in the 10%-20% range. The focus is not on stealing existing capital but bringing Bitcoin holders who never played DeFi into the market to grow the overall DeFi pie.
- Medium to long term, if infrastructure matures and security is battle-tested over time: large-scale repatriation of cross-chain BTC funds, significantly squeezing Ethereum DeFi’s BTC-related business, rewriting the overall DeFi capital landscape.
4. Key variable: quality of infrastructure implementation
The vision is beautiful but rests on the premise:
Whether infrastructure (like CORE as a BTCFi base) can be secure, low-threshold, and free of serious vulnerabilities.
Everyone can tell the narrative, but on-chain TVL, real lending volume, and security records are the final exam.
BTC native finance is not simply an "Ethereum killer."
A more likely scenario is: DeFi evolves from Ethereum’s monopoly into a dual-strong pattern where "ETH handles diverse innovation, BTCFi serves conservative whales and Bitcoin stock."Brothers, if you still believe in the $BTC four-year cycle
Please take a look
$BTC 's macro cycle is almost flawless
2015-2017 bull market: 1064 days
2017-2018 bear market: 364 days
2018-2021 bull market: 1064 days
2021-2022 bear market: 364 days
2022-2025 bull market: 1064 days
If this pattern repeats once more:
2025-2026 bear market: 364 days
Cycle bottom: October 5, 2026.
Considering the recent weakness of $BTC . #WeakConsumptionFedSplit #OpenAIAnthropicRace #SKHynixCapexSurge Don't trust the phrase "enough of a drop": these 4 targets today are teaching the market what it really means to catch a falling knife. Pre-market words on August 19: The selling pressure on CORE and BICO hasn't eased, BEAT was smashed through psychological support by big players, and SNDK is jumping unpredictably. The so-called "the more it drops, the safer it is" is a dangerously misleading lie today. 【Veteran's rambling】 A coin that has dropped 40% is not cheaper, it's more expensive. This sounds counterintuitive, but if you watch the market long enough, you'll understand. CORE's trend shows daily volume bars so red they're almost black, and several market maker addresses marked on-chain are still continuously sending coins to CEX. You think it's bottom accumulation? Wrong, it's inventory relocation. BICO is even more extreme; the price just touched near the previous low and then volume increased pushing it down further. The buy wall in the OB zone is as thin as paper, big orders sweep through without even a splash. In this structure, so-called "support" is just psychological comfort, not a physical defense line. I took a screenshot of BEAT's trend. Big players pressing the price down is not a one- or two-day thing; that wave at midnight directly smashed the depth below two expected levels. Your calculated "extreme position" is just a soft target in the eyes of big players. They have both spot and contract positions, they smash your stop-loss orders to explode and then buy back, with lower cost and more chips than you. What do you have to play left-side trading with them? For a high-volatility target like SNDK, my own rule is — never exceed 3% of total funds in position until three daily candles confirm the move is complete. It's not cowardice. It's a survival habit. Here's some truly useful logic. Many people bottom-fish based on "price memory" #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Long-term US Treasury yields have reached new highs, while $BTC has performed relatively well. Besides, the top three holders of US Treasuries also reduced their holdings in June.
In addition to rising US Treasury yields, yields on Japanese and European bonds have also increased, which complicates rate hikes and raises the "cost" of tightening.
With the rise in long-term yields, the holding cost of interest-free assets like $XAU will increase, putting pressure on gold and causing a pullback. Furthermore, as US Treasury yields rise, US interest expenses will expand, social financing costs will increase, and national credit will face challenges.
High-tech, high-valuation tech stocks like $SNDK are also under pressure. Despite Trump's call for rate cuts, resolving Middle East issues remains difficult in the short term. The Fed's stance is currently mixed between hawkish and dovish, so further observation is needed. Be cautious of risks!
@OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
It seems Xiaomi's earnings report has been digested, with profits exceeding expectations along with growth in automotive and AI sectors, prompting the market to start re-pricing Xiaomi.
Just checked the market, XIAOMIUSDT surged directly to around 3.46, up more than 6 points. It appears the solid Q2 earnings data—revenue of 108.9 billion, although phones were affected by storage price hikes, the automotive business held strong, delivering 104,199 vehicles in Q2 with revenue of 24.9 billion, and management is still controlling costs, which is quite crucial.
However, this stock price movement feels more like short sellers covering positions combined with new capital entering after the earnings release, rather than an immediate reversal. Let's see if it can hold above 3.4.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI SNDK fell 9.8% last night, rebounded 1.54% today, reaching 1,612. SKHYNIX dropped 0.58%, MU rose 0.46%. The storage sector is slowly stabilizing, no longer panicking. But the real change is not with SNDK, it's with ETH and BTC. 📊 I noticed two details: First, from last night until now, when BTC fell, ETH didn’t follow much; when BTC rose, ETH actually rose faster. This indicates strengthening buying pressure on ETH. Second, the ETH/BTC exchange rate quietly climbed to 0.0297, just one step away from breaking 0.030. The last time the rate was at this level, ETH rose from 1,700 to 2,000. 📊 What does this mean? If you only want to trade short-term rebounds, SNDK may fluctuate repeatedly. But if you look at the mid-term structure, a strengthening ETH/BTC rate often marks the start of an "ETH catch-up rally." SNDK is currently at 1,612, having fallen back to the consolidation zone before the surge. If it can stabilize here, there may be a short-term oversold rebound. If it breaks below 1,500, this storage rally will be completely over. 📊 Key levels Product Current Price Key Support Key Resistance SNDK $1,612 1,550 1,800 ETH $1,913 1,900 2,000 BTC $64,435 $64,000 66,000 💡 My judgment SNDWhile oil prices are stuck at $90 and can't fall below them, the crypto market is quietly changing seasons—who's secretly bottom-fishing, and who's being buried? On Tuesday, August 18, the U.S. and Iran continued to hold control over the Strait of Hormuz. The September WTI settlement rose 0.52% to $84.94, and the October Brent settlement rose 0.17% to $91.02, both reaching three-week highs. [Veteran's Ramblings] With oil prices pushing above $90 without loosening, many people's first reaction is "buying coins in troubled times." Wrong. Completely wrong. I watched this market run for a full 388 days. Every time something happens to Hormuz, keyboard warriors are always shouting that Bitcoin should take off. But what about the real script? On July 12, the day Iran announced the closure of its strait, XLM fell over 4%, Solana and Dogecoin dropped over 2%, and $100 million was liquidated across the entire network within 24 hours. Gold also couldn't hold up, falling below 4114. The so-called "digital gold hedging narrative" shattered in the face of a real energy channel crisis. Why? Because you have to follow the chain and look inside. The Hormuz waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil transport. Once it gets blocked, oil prices go up. As soon as oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise. Once inflation rises, the Fed's rate-cutting script must be pushed backward. Once rate cuts are delayed, there will be less cheap money in the market. When money tightens, the first to be cut are high-beta assets—that is, our BTC, ETH, and SOL — the "risk assets" within risky assets. This transmission chain is much tougher than the emotional narrative of "buying coins in troubled times." When macro logic is in conflict, macro always winsWatching those $TSLA bulls cheer on platform X is like watching a table of college students chugging tequila shots at a bar, getting more and more hyped. My wife recently summed it up perfectly after observing: "They really think they've accomplished something big." 😂 This fits Tesla bulls perfectly. Right now, even though there is no evidence that the new Cybercab can achieve perfect autonomous driving without safety monitors, the bulls have started celebrating again, as if Tesla has single-handedly solved the unsupervised autonomous driving challenge and Cybercab can run itself with 99.999% reliability (i.e., only one critical disengagement every 10,000 miles). This self-delusion is far from reality. I fully believe Tesla will be one of the first companies to solve general-purpose (i.e., "go anywhere") unsupervised autonomous driving, but it won't be the only one. Players like $GOOG, $BIDU, $AMZN, $WRD, and $NVDA are also racing, and who crosses the finish line first is far from decided. Anyone who scrolls through platform X can see plenty of videos: so-called autonomous Teslas still require human supervision and can disengage at any time. The facts are clear: until @elonmusk truly puts Cybercabs without safety monitors on the road and scales them to cities not pre-mapped, $TSLA's stock price will likely struggle to break free from the sluggish trend of the past five years — during which TSLA has gained about 51%, while the Nasdaq 100 index has risen 98%. BullsOil prices crashed to $91, while Bitcoin quietly rose back to $64,000: Is this "digital gold" narrative truly hardcore or just a fake celebration? On Tuesday, August 18, 2026, the U.S. and Iran remained deadlocked over control of the Strait of Hormuz. September's WTI settlement price was $84.94 per barrel, up 0.5%, and the October Brent settlement price was $91.02 per barrel, up 0.2%, both hitting three-week highs. [Veteran's Ramblings] The fire over oil prices is burning more than just gas stations. The transmission chain is actually very short—Hormuz is choking, Brent hits 91, inflation expectations immediately rise, the Fed's room for rate cuts is squeezed, Treasury yields push upward, risk asset discount rates follow, and finally Bitcoin, the "super high beta within high beta," gets hammered. Don't be fooled by BTC pulling back to 643,000 on August 18. Does it look like the 'digital gold' narrative is taking effect? Wrong. That day, the three major US stock indices all fell 0.3% to 0.5%, BTC rebounded to 643,000, while ETH still hovered around 1900. This is a weak rebound, not a safe-haven confirmation. What really illustrates the issue is the direction of the money—the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $390 million last week, the largest single-week exit in six weeks; the total supply of stablecoins fell 4.5% from the May high to $300.7 billion. Incremental liquidity has never returned. 💡 Oil prices at high levels + ETF outflows + stablecoin shrinkage—these three factors combined make BTC's rebound sum up in one sentence: short covering, not bull entry. Even more ruthless