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On August 18, BTC climbed back above 64,000. It looks like a rebound, but don’t rush to interpret this bullish candle as a reversal. First, look at the money. At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $390 million last week, marking the largest weekly outflow since June. The previous week still had a net inflow of around $850 million, but then it suddenly reversed. The price went up, yet traditional ETF funds were pulling out. Next, look at who’s pushing the price up. In the past 24 hours, leveraged liquidations totaled about $185.63 million, with short liquidations accounting for 79.13%, nearly 3.8 times that of longs. This means a large part of this upward move was forced short covering; the buying pressure was driven by liquidations, not new capital actively entering. The geopolitical situation is even more chaotic. Around August 17, the 60-day ceasefire window expired. There were reports that both sides would extend the ceasefire, causing a short-term spike in BTC. Then the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied that the “60 days was a negotiation deadline,” and the gains partially retraced. What does this look like? Like the news first gave a sweet promise, then took it back. Price rising, ETF capital withdrawing, shorts liquidating to push the price up—these three signals together mean the biggest risk isn’t whether the price rises or not, but that retail investors might mistake the price rebound for a return of capital. Capital flow is a signal, not a conclusion. Geopolitical situations change rapidly, and the market can reverse at any time. This article only records the state as of August 18; don’t use a single bullish candle to explain the direction. To be continued 🚨 DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY. $BTC is holding around $64K after its rebound, while Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded roughly $137.3M in net inflows on August 17. That doesn't guarantee an immediate breakout—but it does show that institutional demand hasn't disappeared. Meanwhile, $ETH is starting to attract more attention as the ETH/BTC ratio breaks above a long-term downtrend, suggesting Ethereum may be attempting to regain relative strength. But there's still a key distinction: A strong structure Bitcoin $BTC stands at a crossroads of "fair coin toss." In the next 60 days, $BTC will either be $83,000 or $45,000. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has seemed to have been hit on pause. Fluctuating around $64,000, neither rising nor falling, the market was so quiet it made you want to sleep. But the quieter it is, the clearer you need to be. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, reviewed eight instances in Bitcoin's history where 30-day volatility dropped to historically low levels. The result is that over the following 60 days, the median absolute price fluctuation of Bitcoin is 30.2%. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Out of 8 times, 4 rose, 4 fell. This is not some kind of supernatural indicator. This is a market rule that stands up to backtesting—after low volatility comes big volatility. Now the question is: do you bet on a 30% rise or a 30% drop? Translate the numbers into real money—based on the current $64,000: up 30% → $83,200, down 30% → $44,800—a difference of nearly $40,000. This is not a small rally; it is a "wealth redistribution level" fluctuation. Farrell himself said: the 2% rebound on Monday was mainly driven by short closing of positions, not by new buying interest. Since last Friday, Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest has dropped by about 8%. Bears are retreating, but bulls have not made a big move. This is a stalemate where "no one wants to be a competitor in the market." What's even more heartbreaking is: everything#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Xiaomi's latest earnings report brings no surprises, nor a collapse. It clearly reveals the true state of a company transitioning from a phone manufacturer to a "people, cars, and home full ecosystem" enterprise during a hardware cycle downturn: proactively reducing volume while improving quality, enduring gross margin pressure, and continuously increasing investment in R&D and automotive expansion. Short-term profit pressure is the cost, while long-term competitiveness and user barriers are the goals. Storage costs will eventually decline, automotive scale effects will gradually emerge, and AI implementation efficiency will determine premium capability. For investors, the real focus should not be on whether next quarter's profits rise by a few points, but on whether the move upmarket can be maintained, the speed at which automotive losses narrow, and whether ecosystem synergy truly translates into higher user value and profitability. Cycles always pass; the key is what is left behind after navigating through them. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $SNDK $XIAOMI $ETH The core logic now is no longer just "whether the Ethereum network is developing well," but how much value can actually flow back into ETH itself as the entire on-chain economy expands. Several areas to watch currently include: spot ETF capital flows, stablecoin scale, DeFi activity, and L2 settlement demand. Recently, ETH has been fluctuating repeatedly around $1,900. Although on-chain ecosystems and institutional attention remain, price performance has not yet fully reflected these fundamental changes. Especially with BTC consolidating around $64,000, whether ETH can regain capital rotation is a key point to watch going forward. If subsequent events occur: 📌 continued net inflows 📌 of ETH spot ETFs, continued growth in stablecoin supply and on-chain transfers 📌, recovery in 📌 DeFi staking and trading activity, further expansion 📌 of L2 settlement demand, and ETH/BTC beginning to stabilize and rebound, the market may reassess ETH's valuation, and funds could further spread from BTC to ETH. But the risks are equally obvious. High-performance public chains like Solana are still competing for users, liquidity, and developer resources; Meanwhile, after the rapid expansion of the L2 ecosystem, how much economic value generated by the network ultimately accumulates into ETH rather than being absorbed by other participants remains a question the market needs to verify. So I won't just look at ETH price now. What truly deserves attention is: on-chain activity growth → capital inflows → ETH requiredPre-market plunge of 6%! SNDK SanDisk suddenly dives, don't panic
$SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
This morning, many friends saw SanDisk sharply drop pre-market, hitting a low near $1680, with a single-day maximum drop of nearly 6%. Immediately, everyone started looking for bad news, fearing the company had major issues.
First, let me reassure you: this drop is not due to any SanDisk-specific disaster. There are no sudden negative announcements, no earnings failures, no company-level bad news. It's purely a sector-wide cooldown + short-term profit-taking by funds combined with macroeconomic pressure.
Let's talk about the most direct market contrast: yesterday SanDisk just surged strongly by 8.88%. After a day of rallying, a lot of short-term profit-taking piled up. Pre-market liquidity is thin, so a small amount of selling can massively amplify the drop. The hot money chasing the rally the day before cashed out in bulk at the open the next day, directly pushing the price down.
Moreover, this is not just SanDisk weakening alone; the entire AI storage sector is wiped out. Micron also fell sharply, SK Hynix ADR followed down, and the whole memory and NAND chip sector weakened collectively. This is a sector sentiment retreat, not a problem with individual fundamentals.
On the macro environment: long-term US Treasury yields rose again, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell simultaneously. In a high interest rate environment, the first to be cut are tech growth stocks that surged explosively this year and have high valuations. The storage sector's exaggerated gains this year naturally make it a priority for funds to reduce holdings. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention $BTC $BTC If 63,000 is lost, could it trigger a chain drop to 57,000?
Currently, $BTC is still fluctuating around 64,000, but leveraged longs really need to watch 57,000. Alphractal data shows a large number of long positions have liquidation prices concentrated around this level.
Once touched, forced liquidations by exchanges could turn a normal pullback into a rapid crash.
The first line of defense is currently 63,200, which is the recent median realized price and has provided support over the past two weeks.
If it breaks down effectively, the June low of 57,800 will likely come back into view.
More troubling is that the current open interest relative to volume is high, with many bets in the market but thin liquidity to absorb them.
This risk is not just from bearish market sentiment but from overly crowded long positions.
Price drops trigger liquidations, which further push prices down—that's why 57,000 is dangerous.
However, longs do not necessarily have to face cascading liquidations.
BTC has held above 62,000 despite multiple macro headwinds, and a reverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming on the daily chart.
If confirmed by the market, the target could be 76,000.
Key to watch is whether 63,200 can hold and if there is real volume during any rebound.
Low volume does not mean low risk; it may actually amplify the next breakout.
#BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention Review of US and European contract performance charts: Volume stagnation and AI retreat are appearing simultaneously, risk appetite is shrinking. If the rising charts are supported by small-cap fluctuations and the falling rankings are dominated by high-volume AI concepts, is the market in rotation or a retreat? The original chart showed a clear asymmetric structure in the early session. The top gainers PIEVERSE, OFC, and VVV are all low-turnover small-cap coins, with single-day gains concentrated between 5% and 12%, but their trading volumes generally only in the hundreds of millions to tens of billions, making them typical of sudden impulse rallies and lacking a foundation for sustained capital support. As a veteran DeFi protocol, COMP rose 7.03% in a single day, closer to a defensive recovery after an oversold condition rather than a trend reversal. What is noteworthy is GPS, with a turnover as high as 22.888 billion but only a 4.24% increase. Stagnant trading volume means the divergence between bulls and bears is sharply widening, with active turnover at high levels but prices unable to advance, usually seen as a sign of short-term chip loosening. The direction of the downward list is clearer. KAITO led the decline with a 12.9% drop in a single day, and combined with the simultaneous weakening of AI and infrastructure concepts like OG and BICO, it indicates that the earlier AI narrative enthusiasm is systematically cooling down. BEAT continued its downward trend with a turnover of 12.478 billion yuan. The high-volume drops often indicate that main funds are distributing rather than accumulating. AEON rose yesterday and fell 7.82% today. This overnight reversal pattern is a typical sign of short-term speculative funds entering and exiting quickly, posing direct risks to those chasing the highs. From the perspective of cross-market transmission logic, the core contradiction in the current market is not capital rotation between different sectors, but rather the windThe 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, a nineteen-year high, causing global risk asset discount models to tighten rapidly. The semiconductor leaders heavily investing in capacity expansion are now hitting a hard wall with long-term interest rates.
$SKHYNIX surged nearly 9% in early trading on the Korean stock market before retreating to a slight gain, while its US ADR fell about 5% pre-market, resonating with Micron and other memory stocks in a cross-market downward movement.
Geopolitical tensions pushed crude oil prices back above $90, combined with increased US Treasury issuance, further raising inflation expectations and pushing up risk-free asset yields.
The rapid rise in risk-free rates directly lowers the valuation baseline for long-duration growth stocks, causing capital expenditures on new factories and locked-in capacity benefits to temporarily take a backseat before the discount model is restructured.
If cloud providers continue to raise prices to secure long-term supply agreements and the spot supply gap widens, upward revisions in profit expectations will offset the impact of discount rates, stabilizing and rebounding stock prices; however, if end-user capital expenditure guidance is cut, this support will quickly fail.
If oil prices remain high and force long-term yields even higher, the high-valuation semiconductor sector will face forced deleveraging and liquidity squeezes, with a break below key moving averages accelerating sell-offs; a substantial easing of geopolitical tensions would directly end this breakdown pressure.
The tug-of-war between capacity shortages and valuation contraction continues. Once energy supply channels recover and inflation expectations drop sharply, the logic of interest rates suppressing asset valuations will be disproven.
In the next 24 hours after the US market opens, whether long-term US Treasury yields can maintain effective resistance above 5.31% is key to judging whether the semiconductor sector’s valuation sell-off will spread.
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Bitcoin is still in a phase of oscillating digestion recently, but the on-chain chip structure is quietly changing. The latest on-chain data models show that the overall cost range for long-term BTC holders is around $50,500. At the current price of about $64,000, the price is roughly 1.27 times the long-term cost, still within a relatively low historical valuation range. What deserves more attention is the willingness of long-term holders to hold positions. Currently, long-term holders hold about 16.25 million BTC in supply, just a small margin from its all-time high. In recent times, despite BTC continuing to consolidate and short-term capital patience declining, there has been no significant large-scale release of long-term chips. This means an important change: sellers are thinning, but buyers have not fully taken over. Recently, BTC trading volume has continued to shrink, and market liquidity remains cautious. At the same time, spot ETF capital flows have also fluctuated, with the previously strong inflows not sustaining the previous period. If ETFs see consecutive large net inflows again, and on-chain trading volume and long demand for derivatives rebound simultaneously, this could become an important catalyst for BTC to end its volatility and break upward. 📌 I'm now more focused on three signals: (1) Whether BTC can hold above the long-term cost zone above $60,000; (2) Whether ETFs are seeing continued net inflows again; (3) Whether trading volume and new leverage expand with price. If long-term tokens remain locked and new funds start to flow back noticeably, supply contraction may eventually become realThe US Treasury’s proposed GENIUS Act rules shift the stablecoin debate from broad principles toward jurisdiction and distribution. By defining when issuance occurs in the US and when tokens are offered to US persons, the framework could make licensing status a practical gate for both issuers and platforms.
The staggered deadlines matter: approval generally applies to US issuance from Jan 18, 2027, while providers serving US users generally face licensed-issuer requirements from Jul 18, 2028. My read is that this sequencing gives markets time to adapt, but may also concentrate liquidity around issuers able to secure approval. The public-comment process is therefore material for USDC, USDT and exchanges. Not advice, just analysis.
#GENIUSRulesProposedSaylor confirmed that the strategy company increased its USD reserves by $150 million and repurchased $132 million of $STRC, extending the USD maturity to 2.8 years, and tightened STRC's Bitcoin credit spread to 114 basis points. As of August 16, the holdings were 840,447 bitcoins and $4.8 billion in USD reserves.
Here is the pattern hidden behind the regular numbers. This is the fourth consecutive week of this precise operation: selling some Bitcoin, using the proceeds to fund STRC repurchases, and bolstering cash reserves. Moreover, the strategy company has been doing this while holding a paper loss of about $8.7 billion on its total Bitcoin position, selling Bitcoin below its own average cost basis of $75,419 to keep the company running.
The narrowing credit spread (114 basis points, down 4 basis points) is the most important figure here; it is a real-time reading of the market's confidence in STRC's Bitcoin-backed structure's ability to continue repaying debt. The narrower the spread, the more confident the market is in its debt repayment ability, even when realizing losses.
Trading signal: This is not a direct Bitcoin signal; this is a story about a company's balance sheet. It is worth paying special attention to MSTR and STRC rather than viewing this as a bullish or bearish signal for Bitcoin itself.
Is this prudent balance sheet management in tough times, or is the accumulation thesis quietly collapsing?
$ETH $BTC $SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 63,000 bottom confirmed? $BTC long-term holders continue to increase.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that the current average cost for long-term holders is about $49,400, with an unrealized profit of around 30%, but these coins have not noticeably flowed into the market.
These holders collectively own 16.35 million BTC, just 58,000 coins shy of the all-time high, having increased by 1.38 million coins over the past 90 days.
In the last half month, supply has only decreased on 2 days, indicating very weak signs of continuous selling.
According to the cost model, Bitcoin has also been in a low-risk zone for 78 consecutive days.
This data model is positive for the supply side but should not be seen as a reason for a subsequent price increase.
Long-term holders not selling only reduces selling pressure; for the price to truly break out, new funds must come in to buy.
The current market looks more like "coins are held, but there is no new buying demand."
Going forward, continue to observe whether spot ETF capital flows and prices can break through $74,000 with increased volume.
Without confirmation, low selling pressure can only support the bottom; a new market cycle is still far away.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 The market is indeed quite boring right now, with $BTC and $ETH prices showing little volatility, but the trading volume and open interest data tell a completely different story. BTC's market cap is about $1.26 trillion, ETH's about $225 billion, and the total crypto market cap is around $2.25 trillion. Simply put, BTC accounts for about 56%, ETH only 10%, and the ETH/BTC ratio is hovering around 0.03, indicating the market is clearly conservative in its relative valuation of ETH.
What’s really interesting is that while volume is declining, institutions are continuously increasing their positions. On the BTC side, ETF holdings are rising, the number of long-term holders is increasing, and exchange balances are steadily dropping; ETH’s ETF holdings are also growing, staking locked amounts are up, and the circulating supply on-chain is decreasing. In short, chips are flowing out of exchanges and being locked into long-term positions, so selling pressure is gradually being absorbed.
The phase of low liquidity requires the most caution: both buy and sell orders are thin, so once a catalyst appears, price moves can be easily amplified. It’s not price increases attracting funds now, but funds pre-positioning in anticipation of catalysts. BTC is waiting on macro factors, such as interest rate paths and accelerated ETF inflows; ETH is waiting on application rollouts and institutional repricing, lacking a new narrative.
So, BTC and ETH are not competing over the presence of funds right now, but over whose catalyst arrives first. BTC watches macro, ETH watches applications. The calmer the market, the more you need to guard against sudden big moves.
This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.4 Solid Logical Reasons Why I Heavily Shorted
$SNDK
⚠️ Objective market interpretation only, not investment advice
1. Valuation bubble completely overextends expectations
Surged over 170% this year, the market prices cyclical flash memory stocks as AI growth stocks, most of the rally has already priced in future price hikes, massive profit-taking positions piled up at high levels ready to be cashed out anytime.
2. Earnings rely entirely on price hikes, real demand is weak
Two-thirds of revenue depends on NAND price increases, mobile and PC consumer storage continue to decline due to inventory reduction; only AI business supports the bottom line, once flash memory prices ease, gross margin will plummet sharply.
3. Capacity will be released in 2027, cycle turning point approaching
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia new factories will start mass production in the second half of the year, NAND supply growth will exceed AI demand growth, current shortage is only a short-term illusion, flash memory price hike benefits are about to peak.
4. Institutional shorts + major shareholder sell-offs create double negative
Citron publicly released a short report, pointing out that storage supply and demand is a mirage; parent company Western Digital's large discounted sell-off, high-level shareholders exiting is a clear peak signal.
The market is run by time, not by emotions and speculation Nvidia isn't just selling AI chips anymore. It's becoming part of the financing behind AI itself.
From equity stakes to backing data center projects, Nvidia is helping shape demand while managing its own risk.
That's a smart strategy, but it also ties chip sales more closely to customer funding. Is Nvidia building a stronger ecosystem or taking on more hidden risk? #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals Crypto mining companies are converting Bitcoin reserves into operating capital. Lookonchain monitoring shows that Riot Platforms sold 9,665 BTC in the first half of 2026 at an average price of $75,785, with a total value of approximately $732.46 million. Data interpretation: Average selling price $75,785: This price is higher than the current Bitcoin price of about $64,000, indicating that Riot completed most of its sales at a relatively high level at the beginning of the year. If Riot continues to hold these BTC at the current price, its value will shrink by about $114 million. 9,665 BTC volume: At current prices, this batch of BTC is worth approximately $618 million. Riot chose to sell above the $75,000 range, reflecting its strategy of locking in profits at market highs. Cash is king among miners: Riot's large-scale sale reflects the common strategy of mining companies in the current market environment—cashing out mining output promptly to cover operating costs and capital expenditures, rather than hoarding BTC waiting for higher prices. Final thoughts Riot Platforms sold nearly 10,000 BTC at an average price of $75,785, cashing out $732 million—not bearish, but rather cash flow management at the operational level by miners. When Bitcoin's price fell from above $75,000 to $64,000, the timing of Riot's selling became especially critical. For mining companies, the timing of selling directly affects themHaven't checked US stocks for a long time, and I got such a big surprise as soon as I logged in. SanDisk dropped all the way from 1827 to 1673, down 150 points. This is not a pullback, this is basically giving money away.
No second thoughts, bought more.
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Macro Market Analysis
#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The logic is simple — with US Treasury yields so high, institutional funds are pulling out of tech stocks to buy bonds. SanDisk, as a leading AI storage company, naturally got dragged down, falling over 4% pre-market.
But the question is: has SanDisk's fundamentals changed? Not at all.
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#SanDisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus
The $93.9 billion NBM long-term agreement is right there, and Anthropic disclosed a July annualized revenue run rate of $65 billion, up significantly from $47 billion in May. AI computing demand is not cooling down; it's accelerating.
Macro sentiment caused the sell-off, but fundamentals are solid. This kind of opportunity is too good to pass up.
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Personal Strategy Sharing
· Direction: Long 20x
· Entry average price: 1,683.6
· Stop loss: 1,616 (near liquidation price)
· Target: 1,750 (exit once reached, no greed)
US Treasury yields won't keep rising forever. Once sentiment recovers, SanDisk will bounce back.
Once this hits 1750, I'll close the position.
Brothers, let's chat in the comments
$SNDK XAU price dropped to near the lower Bollinger Band + 120 moving average and showed clear resistance to further decline, with multiple probes failing to break through. Although short-term moving averages are exerting pressure, momentum is starting to weaken and the downward force is diminishing. In the evening, participation can be considered around the 4380-4360 support area.
Resistance above at 4420/4465.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
After discussing the three business lines, I actually feel more cautious. I checked the $XIAOMI market page; Q2 adjusted net profit dropped 42.6% year-over-year, revenue only fell 6.1%, but profit was halved. The phone segment is propped up by price increases, the car business is still losing money, and AIoT monetization is weak. None of the three lines can independently support the valuation. Overall, I'm bearish this time and won't chase the highs. After opening a long position on $BTC at 63500, BTC rebounded from the 63000 low early this morning and is currently hovering around 64100—64400. The entire network saw $216 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $179 million (82.8%). A total of 59,879 people were liquidated. A $125 million whale short position was cut by 1,200 coins and 288 coins liquidated, accumulating losses exceeding $1.56 million. Technically, BTC reclaimed the 20-day moving average at 63878 and the 50-day moving average at 63723, but it is still suppressed by the 200-day moving average at 69180, so the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
$SKHYNIX Korean stocks really suffered. Initially, the Korean market surged strongly in the morning, with SK Hynix rising over 8.9% at one point and the KOSPI index surging more than 3%. However, overnight the 30-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, a new high since 2007, causing the Korean market to crash. In the afternoon, the KOSPI index plunged further, closing down 1.55%, ending a five-day winning streak. Samsung reversed to close down 2.19%, and SK Hynix's gains narrowed to just 1.03%. Even worse, in pre-market US trading tonight, the memory sector collectively plunged, with SK Hynix ADR down about 4%—5.6% and Micron down about 4%—5%. The fundamentals are actually strong: two new factories in Yongin and Cheongju invested $38.4 billion, the chairman shouted "memory shortage," and customers are demanding double supply—but valuations are pressured by interest rates, so even good news can't hold up the market.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 This is exactly the moment the Bitcoin bull market begins
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio has dropped 64% from its 2025 peak, similar to what happened in 2018 and 2022.
Currently, BTC/Nasdaq has risen 15% from the bottom, but this cannot be seen as a trend reversal.
As long as it stays below the 3.0 level, Bitcoin will continue to underperform.
But once BTC/Nasdaq breaks above 3.0, Bitcoin will start leading the market.At 4 a.m., when I closed the candlestick, I suddenly felt a chill down my spine. Have you noticed that lately the difficulty of making money seems to have quietly changed? Tonight, the US and European futures price trends have been updated. My first reaction after reading was not excitement, but alertness. At the top of the gainers list PIEVERSE, OFC, VVV, all small stocks with trading volumes in the hundreds of millions, relying on a single abrupt bullish candlestick to gain attention. On the decline chart, KAITO dropped directly by 12.9%, BEAT continued to decline, and AEON, which was smiling yesterday but fell 7.8% today. This is not rotation; it is funds retreating, and the withdrawal is very disgraceful. What really made me stop and take a second look was the GPS. Its turnover surged to 22.8 billion today, but the increase was only 4.24%. What does this indicate? Some are trading hands sharply inside, but prices can't push up, and the divergence between long and short has reached a very fragile point. This kind of stagnant growth on high volume is often a prelude to a market shift, but the direction hasn't been revealed yet. Looking at COMP, the veteran DeFi leader, it rose 7% today, but its trading volume was only 450 million. This scale cannot support a trend reversal; at best, it can be considered a defensive rebound after overselling. It's more like telling the market that capital hasn't found a new direction and can only pick up some bargains. My current feeling is that the market has entered a typical "sentiment gap period." Big Pie didn't choose a direction; the knockoffs fought their own battles, hot money flew around like headless flies, and every small bill they hit pulled a needle, then the next day they buried the victim. AEON is the work of todayPre-market plunge of 6%! SNDK SanDisk suddenly dives, don’t panic, there’s no sudden black swan event
$SNDK $SNDK
This morning, many friends saw SanDisk sharply drop pre-market, hitting a low near $1680, with a single-day maximum drop of nearly 6%. Immediately, everyone started looking for bad news, fearing the company had major problems.
First, let me reassure you: this drop is not due to any SanDisk-specific disaster. There are no sudden negative announcements, no earnings failures, no company-level bad news. It’s purely a sector-wide cooldown plus short-term profit-taking by funds combined with macroeconomic pressure.
Let’s start with the most intuitive market contrast: yesterday SanDisk surged strongly by 8.88%. After such a one-day rally, a lot of short-term profit-taking piled up. Pre-market liquidity is thin, so a small amount of selling can greatly amplify the decline. The hot money chasing the rally the day before cashed out massively at the open the next day, directly pushing the price down.
Moreover, this is not just SanDisk weakening alone; the entire AI storage sector is collapsing. Micron also fell sharply, SK Hynix ADR dropped, and the whole memory and NAND chip sector weakened collectively. This is a sector sentiment retreat, not a fundamental problem with individual stocks.
Now about the macro environment: long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose again, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell simultaneously. In a high-interest-rate environment, the first to be cut are tech growth stocks that surged explosively this year and have high valuations. The storage sector’s gains this year were exaggerated, so it naturally became a priority for funds to reduce holdings.
Another key point: market expectations for SanDisk and the storage sector have long been fully priced in.
Previously, funds wildly bet on AI data center SSD demand and continued NAND supply tightness, pricing in all the future price increase benefits and profit margins into the stock price ahead of time. Now, without new major positive catalysts, high-level chips naturally have profit-taking demand. Plus, storage is a strongly cyclical industry. Funds are starting to worry in advance about subsequent capacity expansions by major manufacturers, supply increases, and the resulting chip price and gross margin declines. When risk aversion kicks in, they sell off first.
To sum it up plainly:
Yesterday’s strong rally overextended short-term momentum. Today, the sector collectively cools off, macro yields pressure, and high-level chips cash out. Multiple factors combined to cause the pre-market plunge, which is not a fundamental black swan event.
Next, focus on two signals to judge whether this is just short-term volatility or a weakening trend:
1. Trading volume after the official open: if volume expands but prices continue to fall, it means sector funds are truly withdrawing; if the open sees support and quick narrowing of the decline, it’s likely just a false panic caused by pre-market liquidity.
2. The subsequent performance of peers like Micron and Hynix: as long as the storage sector doesn’t collectively crash further, SanDisk’s pullback is just a normal high-level shakeout.
Friendly reminder: The above is only a market logic review and does not constitute any investment advice. Important news
In recent days, the long-term yields of government bonds in developed countries worldwide, including Japan, the US, France, Germany, and the UK, have surged dramatically. For example, today, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose overnight to the highest level in nearly twenty years, reaching 5.304%.
Some friends have asked what this means, so here is an explanation.
Interest rates, or real interest rates, are the most important guiding indicators in macroeconomics. The rise in global long-term interest rates indicates two things:
1. The market is starting to vote with its feet: at the beginning of August, the US Treasury debt size exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt and interest pressure;
2. Capital is beginning to bet that long-term inflation will be hard to reduce, and the market will need to use high interest rates to suppress high inflation. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Yushu will be listed on the STAR Market on August 19, 2026, with an issue price of ¥150.80 per share, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately ¥60.993 billion, and is expected to raise about ¥6.099 billion.
Why am I bearish in the short term?
The core reason is just one sentence:
Good company + high expectations + high valuation = very likely to become a good company with a bad price.
Yushu's net profit excluding non-recurring items in 2025 is about ¥591 million. Based on the issue market value of ¥60.993 billion, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio at issuance is about 219 times.
This means the market has already priced in:
"The future of robotics will definitely explode, Yushu will definitely be the leader, and future profits will grow rapidly."
The problem is:
These futures have already been bought in advance by the price.
⸻
More dangerously: profit growth in 2026 does not keep up
This is my main concern.
First half of 2026:
* Revenue about ¥1.152 billion
* Year-on-year growth 48.54%
* Net profit excluding non-recurring items about ¥244 million
* Year-on-year decline 19.34% Bitcoin broke above $64,000, but do not rush to celebrate yet. 📊
ETH is below 1900, XRP is under $1, and BNB and DOGE remain flat.
Price is still stuck in the $62,000–$65,000 range below key moving averages.
Heavy unlocks arrive August 20 for KAITO ($9-11M) and LayerZero ZRO ($19M).
Do not mistake this solo move for a full market breakout. Observe first.🟢 #CRYPTO CASH FLOW net inflow of +$35.1M in the latest session | BTC: +$137.3M (08/17) 📊 TODAY ▪️ Total latest session: +$35.1M (net inflow) ▪️ Stablecoin: +$35.1M ▪️ Same-day ETF: n/a — Latest ETF is T-1, not combined with the same day 📊 LATEST ETF (08/17) ▪️ BTC: +$137.3M (08/17) ▪️ ETH: +$5.0M (08/17) ▪️ Altcoin: +$0 (08/17) ▪️ Cumulative ETF in window: +$860.5M 📊 WINDOW 07/29-08/18/2026 · 21 sessions ▪️ ETF: +$860.5M ▪️ Stablecoin: −$1.83B ▪️ Total net cash flow: −$970.5M Now calmly analyze
Where are the AI opportunities in the next phase?
Recently, I researched the upstream and downstream industrial chains and related companies of indium phosphide, CCL, supercapacitors, heat dissipation, and MLCC.
I feel that materials will be the biggest bottleneck for AI in the future. The more core products move upstream, the more they are controlled by overseas companies, especially Japanese companies, and the longer the expansion cycles.
For example, the evolution in the optical field from optical modules to optical chips to indium phosphide materials, and the upstream materials of PCBs are similar. Although PCB expansion cycles are fast, the verification threshold for upstream materials is high.
The ABF film is even more difficult to replace across the entire industry chain from process to equipment to materials. In the heat dissipation field, graphene, diamond, and diamond copper continuously iterate and upgrade existing materials to improve heat dissipation performance.
The expansion of supercapacitors is greatly restricted by the supply of porous carbon materials from Japan's Kuraray materials. The upstream release films of MLCC have very high thresholds for high-end release films, with a single production line investment of several hundred million yuan,
and it takes more than one or two years to put into production and installation. Price increases in the future are highly probable. A batch of companies related to this will grow into major stocks.
Another visible opportunity is at the system level. Previously, one company handled PCB and optical modules, which was relatively simple to iterate. Later, CPO, liquid cooling, power, and TOKEN factories are all system-level comprehensive capabilities.
Companies emerging in this area will have great opportunities. I will elaborate on this field another time.
No need to worry too much about macro and market trends; focus more on segmented industries and company performance progress. This might be the best $BTC $BTC chart you'll see today. Take a close look at what happened near all previous all-time highs.
Bitcoin repeatedly breaks through previous ATHs but then sharply reverses, liquidating traders who had bet on further gains.
In other words, Bitcoin's price history is full of traps and false breakouts.
$ETH has consistently repeated this pattern for years, eventually causing many investors to completely give up on the market. And whenever the market tries to push higher, there's already a large liquidity pool waiting below.
As long as the market hasn't fully cleansed excessive bullish sentiment and leverage, forming sustained upward momentum becomes much more difficult.
This pattern has repeatedly appeared throughout Bitcoin's history, and it is likely to continue. Because ultimately, what drives the market is liquidity, position sizing, and human behavior.#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Xiaomi's official Q2 2026 earnings announcement is now live, with the management call scheduled for 7:30 PM tonight. Once the numbers came out, the overall signal from the financial report was quite clear. Xiaomi's Q2 revenue was 108.92 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 9.9% quarter-on-quarter, below the market consensus of about 112.2 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 6.22 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year, also below the market expectation of about 6.6 billion yuan. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 208.06 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit was 12.29 billion yuan, down 42.8% year-on-year. Looking at the headline alone, this is a report with a significantly lower base than the same period last year, with particularly obvious profit pressure. Breaking down the business structure, Xiaomi is undergoing a significant revenue restructuring: smartphones and domestic IoT are shrinking, automobiles are rapidly expanding their revenue share, the internet continues to provide high gross cash flow, AI is entering commercial revenue, and R&D and automotive investments keep short-term profits suppressed. The most noteworthy aspect of this financial report is that Xiaomi has gradually shifted from a company that relies solely on smartphone sales to a stage where its profit structure is jointly determined by smartphones, AIoT, internet, automobiles, and AI. In the second quarter, smartphone × AIoT revenue was 84.03 billion yuan, accounting for 77.1% of total revenue, compared to 81.7% in the same period last year; Smart electric vehicles,$BTC US Treasury market suddenly sounds the alarm
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose above 5.31%, reaching about 5.33% intraday, hitting the highest level since 2007
This is not ordinary volatility; global capital is repricing the long-term risks of the US
The most contradictory part of the market now is: the dollar is weakening, short-term rate hike expectations are cooling, but long-term Treasuries continue to be sold off
Why is no one willing to buy long-term bonds at low yields?
Several major pressures are at play: the US fiscal deficit continues to widen, the scale of Treasury issuance remains high, tech giants are increasing financing for AI capital expenditures, and inflation concerns arise as oil prices climb back above $90
In other words, the market may not be too worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates in the short term, but is increasingly concerned about fiscal, inflation, and debt supply issues over the coming decades
This is the real reason why long-term rates and short-term expectations are diverging
For the market, 5.31% is not an ordinary number
If long-term rates keep rising, it will directly increase funding costs across the financial system and depress valuations of future cash flows. High-valuation tech stocks, growth stocks, and liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC will all feel the pressure
Especially now that oil prices and Treasury yields are rising in tandem, meaning the market is worried about both weakening growth and a resurgence of inflation
If the 30-year yield continues to push higher, BTC could face a more intense short-term volatility
Going forward, don’t just focus on the coin price; the US Treasury yield spike might be the real variable determining the direction of risk assets $BTC retail investors are holding tonight's $BTC chart where it pulled back above 64,000 overnight and asking me: Is it going to reverse? Should I switch to long? I didn't move a muscle. Let me point out the real boss for you — tonight the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, a 19-year high. The hand pressing down on all overvalued assets is interest rates, not the minor fluctuations in the crypto price chart. The longer interest rates stay high, the harder it is for risk asset valuations to rise, and crypto is just the last link in this chain with the least pricing power. A short squeeze doesn't change this big picture. After trading for a while, you'll understand that the direction depends on the water level, not the waves. Don't be fooled by a short squeeze spike into catching the falling knife — chasing longs at this level has the worst odds. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its financial report, which business line do you favor more? After-hours, Xiaomi officially revealed its Q2 financial report. Let's first look at the consensus expectations from institutions: Estimated total revenue of ¥108.8 billion, a slight year-on-year decline of 6%; adjusted net profit of about ¥6 billion. The three major sectors—smartphones, car manufacturing, and AIoT—each have their strengths and weaknesses, with vastly different potentials. 1. Smartphone main business: sales shrink, but the high-end strategy is a great success In Q1, shipments were 33.8 million units, a sharp year-on-year drop of 19%, with sales clearly under pressure. But the highlights are highly valuable: the average selling price (ASP) of phones rose sharply by 8.2%, reaching a historic high of ¥1310. Actively cutting low-end models and fully focusing on the high-end market achieved "volume down, price up," steadily restoring profitability. If the storage chip price surge eases in Q3, the smartphone gross margin will further improve. 2. Xiaomi Auto: the biggest growth dark horse, getting closer to breakeven In Q2, SU7 deliveries reached 104,200 units, with a gross margin hitting 20.1%; operating loss narrowed significantly from ¥3.1 billion in Q1 to ¥2.06 billion. Scale effects continue to materialize, costs are continuously diluted, and the turning point to profitability is visible to the naked eye. With continued new car volume growth, automobiles will become a long-term core engine for Xiaomi's revenue growth. 3. AIoT smart home: first to recover, experiencing a strong rebound The 618 shopping festival strongly boosted sales, with Q2 IoT revenue surging 28% quarter-on-quarter to ¥31.6 billion. Demand for large appliances and smart home sectors has clearly warmed up, stabilizing Xiaomi's ecosystem foundation. Market outlook: Q3 highlights far exceed those of Q2 Who understands! It clearly looks like it's about to break out, but ends up just grinding in place.
The back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears has completely drained my mindset.
$ETH is really frustrating; after several attempts, it can't break through and just drops. The 1900-1920 range is heavily suppressed. Every rebound sees capital outflow. If you can't push through, just come down, okay? I'm waiting with my short position.
$BTC still opens high and closes low. The chart looks strong but there's no incremental capital support. It can't break the resistance level, nor can it break the support level. So it just stays put obediently.
Currently, neither of the two major coins has a clear direction. It's very frustrating. I'll hold this position and see if Ethereum can break downwards.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Hold on until Thursday
I just hope it doesn't rise too sharply in these two days 📉
I did some research on the Federal Reserve myself
It feels like this meeting's minutes will most likely still lean hawkish
Although there was no rate hike last time
The vote changed from 12-0 to 9-3
Three people directly supported a rate hike
This division is already quite clear
Plus, inflation hasn't completely come down yet
As long as the minutes continue to emphasize inflation risks
The dollar and US Treasury yields might rise again
Definitely not comfortable for crypto
But the hawkish expectations might have been partially priced in already
Thursday might not necessarily see a dump right after the release
$ETH is still hovering around 1900
1950 remains the resistance I'm watching
If the minutes are hawkish
And 1880 doesn't hold, there's a chance to continue downward
So I just want to hold on until the news lands
I dare not add positions recklessly anymore
$BEAT dropped hard again today
The selling pressure after unlocking clearly hasn't been fully absorbed
Let's see if it can hold around 0.25 first
Only with volume can there be a potential oversold rebound
Without volume, I really don't dare to hope for a second wave
$SNDK is ridiculously strong instead
After last week's big surge, it pushed up near 1780 again
The two-month consolidation range has been broken upwards
Might test 2000 later
But it rose so fast
I'm afraid to chase now and end up at the peak
Hope the Federal Reserve doesn't suddenly turn dovish
Also hope ETH doesn't lift me out before Thursday
Let me quietly wait for the result
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 ComponentNews classifies server $MLCC as in a "severe" shortage phase, ETNews reports:
- According to DigiKey's shipment data, the delivery time for some high-capacity MLCCs from Samsung has reached about 40 weeks.
Earlier this year, the widely reported delivery time was about 20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck continues to widen.
- Murata was about 24 weeks in June.
About 30 weeks in July. Now some have reached about 36 weeks.
This is interesting:
"New capacity expansion postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027"
It does not specify where the expansion is... maybe Murata? But if the capacity expansion is reportedly shelved, the bottleneck should tighten in the short term.
Delivery time is a good way to track demand imbalance. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.29%, hitting a multi-year high. Many media outlets and KOL experts have issued warnings, but many people actually don’t understand the relationship between Treasury bonds and the market. I’ll explain it simply in the most straightforward, no-nonsense plain language.
1. What is yield?
It’s the interest investors demand when lending money to the U.S. government. When yields rise, it usually means Treasuries are being sold and prices are falling.
2. What’s the difference between the long end and the short end?
The short end mainly reflects whether the Fed is raising or cutting rates in the near term; the long end reflects inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt risks over many years. So, short-end yields can fall while long-end yields don’t necessarily follow.
3. What does a rise in the long end indicate?
Investors are more cautious about the U.S. long-term outlook and demand higher returns. The market’s concern may no longer be the next Fed meeting but inflation, deficits, and interest burden over the coming years.
4. What impact does this have on the market?
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are the benchmark for global asset pricing. When they rise, financing costs increase, stock valuations are pressured downward, the dollar becomes more attractive, and emerging markets, stocks, and cryptocurrencies face headwinds.
5. Where is the risk?
Debt increases → more bond issuance → yields rise → interest expenses increase → market worries more about debt → continued selling of Treasuries.
If this cycle continues, it could lead to further rises in long-term rates and put pressure on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and global markets.
Although this doesn’t mean the U.S. economy or the dollar will immediately have problems, market trading is fundamentally about expectations. The next major market rally may not be $BTC rising alone, nor $ETH rising alone, but rather capital shifting from "safe-haven allocation" to "on-chain finance".
The strongest phase in the crypto market is often not just BTC finishing its rise, nor ETH suddenly exploding alone, but a continuous transmission formed by the capital flow path. Step one: with macro environment improvement, capital first buys $BTC because it is the easiest for institutions to understand and best suited as an entry point to the crypto market. Step two: after BTC stabilizes, capital begins to seek higher elasticity and richer narratives, thus flowing to $ETH. Step three: if ETH strengthens, on-chain finance, DeFi, L2, RWA, and stablecoin ecosystems will be reactivated.
Currently, the market is still between steps one and two. BTC is waiting for macro confirmation around $64,000, and ETH is waiting for capital rotation around $1,900. The Federal Reserve, Jackson Hole, the Trump White House crypto meeting, stablecoin regulation, SEC rule progress, and ETF flows are all deciding whether this path can be realized.
If the Federal Reserve releases easing space, BTC is very likely to benefit first. Because BTC resembles a macro asset the most, liquidity improvement, a weaker dollar, and lower real interest rates will all make its digital gold narrative smoother. ETF funds will also more easily return to BTC because BTC is the clearest institutional entry. At this stage, the market is buying certainty and liquidity.
But if only BTC rises and ETH does not follow, the crypto rally is incomplete. A true on-chain bull market requires ETH participation. Because ETH represents the application layer, stablecoin settlement, DeFi yields, RWA, and smart contract ecosystem. BTC can bring money into crypto, but ETH determines whether this money enters on-chain financial activities. If ETH fails to stand up for a long time, it means capital is still stuck in safe-haven allocation rather than risk appetite expansion.
This is also why BTC and ETH should not be judged solely by who rises more. BTC strength indicates crypto is treated as asset allocation; ETH strength indicates crypto is treated as a financial system. If both are strong together, it means the market is not only willing to buy digital gold but also willing to believe in the on-chain economy. The former provides the foundation for the crypto market, the latter provides vitality.
The key now is whether ETF funds and macro data can cooperate. BTC needs continuous inflows to confirm institutional buying, ETH needs on-chain activity and yield logic to confirm revaluation. If BTC stabilizes around $64,000 and ETH can regain $1,900 and break upward, then the market will start discussing capital rotation. Otherwise, the rally is still just a BTC-led defensive rebound.
The next major rally may not start from altcoins, nor necessarily be ignited by Meme. It is more likely to start with traditional capital buying BTC first, then confirmed by ETH reactivating on-chain finance. BTC is responsible for opening the door, ETH is responsible for proving there is real economic activity behind the door.
Reference sources (do not copy into the main text): Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Investopedia, CoinDesk, Investing.com ETH market page, Blockport ETH ETF monthly fund flows.——When the world's largest asset management companies settle on the same Chain, it ceases to be just a tool for the crypto world and becomes the underlying pipeline of the financial world. In 1968, the U.S. securities market was on the brink of collapse. Millions of paper stock certificates had to be manually transported, verified, and stamped every day, forcing the New York Stock Exchange to shorten trading hours to catch up with the backlog of paperwork. That year, Wall Street created DTCC—the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation—to centralize the registration, delivery, and clearing of all securities into one system. No one thought this was glamorous. But over the next half-century, DTCC handled 99% of U.S. securities transactions worldwide, with a daily settlement volume exceeding $2.3 trillion. It is the most unassuming yet indispensable infrastructure in the entire financial world. In August 2026, a similar story is unfolding on Ethereum—except this time, what is being cleared is not paper certificates but digitized real-world assets. $44.7 Billion in Options According to a report by ChainDD on August 17, the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market has expanded from a niche experiment to $44.7 billion in three years. This number itself is not shocking. What is remarkable is the foundation beneath it: Ethereum remains the largest RWA settlement layer. Although public chains like BNB Chain, Solana, and XRP Ledger each have their own layouts, Ethereum firmly holds the institutional preferred position with over half of the market share. Three years ago, RWA was just a proof of concept "moving government bonds onto the Chain." Today, it already covers U.S. government bonds, money market funds, private credi💾 Why SanDisk can keep its balance sheet so clean $SNDK $GPS $SPCX SanDisk's most easily underestimated competitive advantage right now might be its manufacturing system operated jointly with Kioxia for over twenty years. This system allows SanDisk to simultaneously obtain NAND original factory technology, production capacity, and cost control capabilities, while dispersing the heaviest factory buildings, clean rooms, equipment financing, and depreciation assets of many wafer fabs into Kioxia and Flash Ventures. The result is a very unique financial picture. SanDisk is clearly one of the world's largest NAND manufacturers, with fiscal year 2026 revenue reaching $20.248 billion. As of July 3, 2026, the net book value of factory equipment on its consolidated balance sheet is only $674 million. During the same period, cash is $4.762 billion, long-term debt has been reduced to zero, and Flash Ventures-related notes receivable and equity investments total only $678 million. The company's total assets are about $22.5 billion, with the PP&E recorded on SanDisk's own books not even reaching $700 million. This figure is quite extraordinary in the storage industry. Micron is a typical IDM, owning a large amount of factory buildings, clean rooms, lithography, etching, and deposition equipment. Micron's capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 reached $13.8 billion, and the latest forecast for fiscal year 2026 PP&E capital expenditure will exceed 2.5$BTC has regained the $64,200 mark, while $ETH is around $1,901, and $SOL is still hovering around $75. Currently, it seems that funds continue to favor highly liquid core assets, rather than the entire crypto market moving into risk-on simultaneously. What truly deserves attention is the macro side: the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note rose to about 5.33%, the highest level since 2007; The 10-year yield is also close to 4.74%. Even though market expectations for another rate hike in September have dropped to about 37%, long-term yields continue to put pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed back above $90 per barrel, with Middle East tensions and inflation concerns further pushing up term premiums. In other words, the core question facing the market is no longer just "will the Fed raise interest rates," but how high long-term financing costs can go. Therefore, whether $BTC can hold the $64K is only the first step. To confirm a genuine return of market risk appetite, we need to see $ETH, $SOL, and broader altcoins break through with simultaneous volume increases. #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
My answer is clear: Automotive is the future, AIoT is the foundation, and smartphones are the fading halo.
Xiaomi's Q2 single-quarter revenue exceeded 108.9 billion yuan again, but adjusted net profit dropped sharply by 42.6% year-on-year to 6.2 billion yuan.
Smartphones: Q2 revenue was 42.1 billion yuan, shipments declined year-on-year but the global average selling price surged 25.9% year-on-year to 1351 yuan, showing initial success in premiumization. However, how long the "volume down, price up" trend can last is questionable—ASP rose but revenue still fell, indicating volume dropped faster than price increased, and smartphone gross margin is suppressed around 8%.
Automotive: This is the most noteworthy part of Q2. Revenue was 24.9 billion yuan, deliveries reached 104,199 units, and the new generation SU7 ranked first in pure electric sedan sales above 200,000 yuan in the first half of the year. Operating loss was 2.6 billion yuan but gross margin has reached 19.2%, showing scale effects are taking hold. Once the automotive business achieves single-quarter profitability, the market will reassess Xiaomi.
AIoT: Overseas contributions stand out, internet service revenue is 9 billion yuan with a gross margin as high as 76.8%, and 767 million monthly active users form Xiaomi's deepest moat.
My judgment is that automotive is the variable that will determine Xiaomi's valuation ceiling for the next five years. Multiple institutions maintain a "buy" rating, believing a fundamental turning point will come in the second half of the year. When automotive turns profitable, the market will apply a completely different valuation logic to Xiaomi—from "burning money to tell stories" to "making money and accounting."
I watch all three lines, but the one most worth betting on is automotive. Recently, the Strait of Hormuz has once again fallen into a state of effective closure. This US-Iran conflict, which erupted at the end of February 2026, has lasted for over 170 days. Although there were brief memorandums of understanding and limited navigation attempts in between, Iran has clearly stated that the strait will not truly return to normal commercial navigation until the US meets a series of conditions including lifting the maritime blockade, removing sanctions, and unfreezing assets. About one-fifth of global oil trade originally depended on this chokepoint waterway, but now vessel traffic has dropped to single-digit percentages of pre-war levels. War risk insurance premiums have soared to 30 times the usual rate, and Brent crude oil prices have climbed back above $90. The sharp rise in energy costs has directly pushed up global inflation expectations, while the US Treasury's massive debt issuance has compounded this, causing US Treasury yields to rise across the board. The 30-year Treasury yield once touched its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year yield is also approaching multi-year peaks. The bond market sell-off is transmitting to the stock market, putting risk assets under repricing pressure.
Against this macro backdrop, the probability of a sharp plunge in US stocks after tonight's opening has significantly increased. Historical experience shows that when energy shocks and rising interest rates occur simultaneously, growth stocks and high-valuation tech stocks often bear the brunt first. The semiconductor sector, as the core beneficiary of this AI rally, has already accumulated huge gains, and its valuation elasticity has correspondingly amplified downside risks. Especially those memory chip manufacturers highly dependent on global supply chains and terminal demand prosperity are more vulnerable to capital withdrawal when risk appetite sharply declines. Once the market enters a risk-off mode, funds tend to prioritize selling liquid and previously high-gain targets, creating a stampede effect.
Based on the above logical chain, I recommend focusing on shorting SK Hynix opportunities. As a global leader in HBM high-bandwidth memory, Hynix's stock price has experienced multiple-fold increases amid the AI server demand boom, with its market value once surpassing Samsung to become Korea's largest. However, the current high oil prices may push up data center operating costs, while the high-interest-rate environment will suppress corporate capital expenditure willingness, potentially slowing AI infrastructure expansion. Coupled with weakening overall US stock sentiment, Hynix's US ADR and related derivatives are likely to become concentrated targets for shorts. Whether through direct shorting, using inverse ETFs, or leveraging futures and options tools, a relatively favorable window seems to have emerged timing-wise. Of course, short-term volatility is intense, so strict position management and stop-loss discipline must be observed.
It is especially important to emphasize that geopolitical situations can dramatically turn at any time. Once the US and Iran reach a substantive agreement again and truly restore strait navigation, oil prices may fall and risk appetite recover, quickly reversing the current logic. Therefore, shorting operations are more suitable as tactical trades rather than long-term strategic holdings. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry itself still has strong long-term fundamental support, and AI demand will not disappear overnight. Investment decisions must be combined with one's own risk tolerance; blind following should be avoided. The market is always full of uncertainty, and tonight's plunge expectation may also be interrupted by unexpected positive news. Staying calm and thinking independently is key to navigating cycles.
Finally, a reminder: the above analysis only represents my personal observation and deduction of the current macro and market environment and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets carry very high risks, past performance does not represent future results, please make decisions cautiously based on your own situation and consult professional advisors if necessary. Brothers, the market changes in an instant; may we all protect our principal amid volatility and seize the opportunities that truly belong to us.
$SNDK
$SKHYNIX
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 After the sharp rise of OKB, a 4.4% correction occurred within 24 hours, breaking the $100 psychological support level. Has the market moved beyond chasing news to a phase of re-evaluating actual capital flows and structural value? OKB fell from $107 the previous day to the current $99.55, breaking the $100 level. Considering that the asset surged from $47 to $142 over the past 7 days, this correction strongly reflects profit-taking after the positive news of the permanent suspension of coin issuance and the fixed total supply of 21 million tokens was already fully priced in. In fact, the timing of the news announcement almost coincided with the peak price formation, which can be interpreted as a 'sell on fact' pattern. However, technical signals do not yet warn of a trend reversal. The RSI dropped from 89 to 76 but remains in the overbought zone, which can be seen as a process of digesting overheated short-term buying pressure. The 30-day gain of +22% and 7-day gain of +5% indicate that the medium-term uptrend is still intact In the past, people bought stocks; now they buy Crypto stocks.
Here's a recent obvious change: Previously, if you wanted exposure to $BTC, you basically had to go to an exchange or manage your own wallet; now more and more people are buying Strategy directly through their US stock accounts. Strategy currently holds over 840,000 BTC, which accounts for more than 4% of the circulating supply. This scale basically turns BTC into a stock—buying one share of MSTR is like buying a leveraged BTC exposure, with custody, compliance, and liquidity all ready-made.
$ETH is following the same path. BitMine has started putting ETH into its treasury—not just hoarding it, but adding a layer of corporate operational leverage to ETH. Buying its stock means you gain from both ETH price fluctuations and company operations; the volatility is greater than spot, but the entry method is just like buying ordinary stocks.
Another data point: In the past 5 days, among the 25 most liquid US stocks, at least 5 are directly related to Crypto—Strategy, BitMine, Robinhood, Coinbase, Circle, and Telegram all made the list. Traditional market money is already voting with its feet.
So my judgment is that the next wave of Crypto capital inflow may not be through exchanges but rather through the stock market. Money doesn’t need to know on-chain operations to get BTC and ETH exposure; this path is very smooth for institutions and large funds.
This is just my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.The market is currently very fragmented: Bitcoin is surging, while most major altcoins are either stagnant or weakening, and a broad rally has not yet arrived. Meanwhile, a major shift is happening at the industry’s foundation, with many Bitcoin mining companies reallocating hash power and electricity resources to AI. 📊 Market status: typical structural divergence ✅ $BTC stands above 64,000, up over 1% intraday. But awkwardly: $ETH has fallen below 1900, $XRP dropped below $1, $BNB and $DOGE are basically flat, and $SOL is oscillating around $76. Only $HYPE remains strong, with a 7-day gain of 7.5%, continuing to outperform the market**. Current situation: capital is concentrated flowing into BTC, altcoins cannot attract liquidity, representing a typical bloodsucking market, not a full reversal. Technical signals to watch: Bitcoin has failed to hold above the 50-day moving average for 4 consecutive days, and the price remains below the 200-week moving average. Analyst view: The huge $62,000–$65,000 range has not been broken; without an effective breakout, it remains a consolidation pattern, and medium-term bearish pressure has not completely disappeared. ⚡ Major industry transformation: miners cut 21% hash power, shifting to AI Publicly listed Bitcoin miners have cut mining hash power by 21% over the past three quarters. Mining profits are thinning, while AI hash power hosting yields higher returns, causing many mining farms and electricity resources to shift from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure. While miners are fleeing the mining track, AI crypto tokens are developing independent trends: AI platform Venice’s annualized revenue exceeds $100 million, $VVV single-day upIf the SafePal order leak topic is ultimately confirmed to be true, the harm is not only to privacy
but also strikes a blow to the core psychological contract of hardware wallets.
Users buy hardware wallets precisely because they fear exchanges, hot wallets, on-chain phishing, and private key risks. If purchase records, contact information, addresses, and other off-chain data are compromised, users will suddenly realize: assets are safe on-chain, but that doesn't mean people are safe offline.
This is very painful.
Wallet manufacturers often say they don't touch private keys or custody assets, which is of course important. But hardware products cannot avoid logistics, after-sales service, and order systems; any link left unattended or poorly managed for too long can become an entry point for attackers.
Crypto security cannot focus only on mnemonic phrases.
True security is that even others don't know you have a wallet.
#SafePal订单泄露，隐私保护待完善 BTC's breakout with high volume does look like the market is about to reopen, but if you only look at BTC rising and ignore counterfeit trading volume, it's easy to fall into the illusion of capital creation. A true comprehensive bull market is not just about BTC rising, but about funds spilling over from mainstream coins to altcoins, creating sector rotation and profit-making effects. If BTC rises but other cryptocurrencies are slow to follow, it indicates that market risk appetite remains weak and funds are simply clustering in safe-haven assets. 📊Looking at the 24-hour market, BTC trading volume has clearly expanded, indicating that some funds have indeed participated in the breakout, but the overall trading volume of the altcoin sector has not kept pace. Many low-priced coins appear to be rebounding but are actually only slightly following the gains, with trading volume still below average. Under this structure, ordinary investors are most likely to misjudge: they think a BTC breakout is the start of a bull market, so they rush to buy low-level altcoins, only to end up buying weak stocks with low volume. Why do we say there are traps here? Because capital can be used with a small amount of capital to drive BTC to break out, generate market heat, then gradually distribute strong targets at high levels, or continue to flow into a few certain assets. Once BTC breaks out and there is no counterfeit rotation to take over, the market can easily shift from a "strong breakout" to a "false breakout." Especially near key resistance levels, market sentiment is most intense and prone to intense shakeouts. ———— historical experience, healthy breakout rallies usually have three characteristics: First, when the main currency breaks out, volume increases significantly; Second, after a breakthrough, it pulls back without breaking the key position; Third, hot sectors continue to spreadThe yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury notes its highest since 2007!!
This round of rally was driven by three core factors: First, Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices, the market repriced long-term inflation, and expectations for rate cuts continued to be delayed. Second, the U.S. fiscal deficit remains high, with massive Treasury bonds continuously injected, resulting in an oversupply of long-term bonds. Overseas central banks keep reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and the market needs higher yields to take over. Third, AI companies are issuing large-scale bonds to expand computing power, while corporate and government bonds compete for market funds, further pushing up long-term interest rates.
In the crypto market, risk-free returns exceed 5%, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of capital allocation to crypto assets, exerting medium- to long-term pressure on BTC and ETH. Institutional funds prefer to sit back and hold stable bond yields, with less willingness to enter highly volatile crypto assets. If yields continue to rise in the short term, it is highly likely that risk asset markets will continue to be suppressed; Only when yields turn to decline will the possibilities for risk assets reopen.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%, long-term agreements draw attention #财报观察员: Xiaomi is about to release its financial report. Which business line do you favor most? $BTC $ETH $SNDK