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[Options Expiry Data for August 21] 24,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, maximum pain point at $67,000, and a notional value of $1.82 billion. 149,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, maximum pain point at $2,000, and a notional value of $360 million. Bitcoin surged significantly this week, breaking through 76K, surpassing two horizontal price zones this year. This is one of the rare expiry days this year where the expiry price is higher than the maximum pain point. Monthly realized volatility (RV) jumped 20% to 53%, while monthly implied volatility (IV) only rose 6%, currently causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to drop sharply. Looking at other major options data, 6% of options expired this week, open interest rebounded but remains low, and trading activity increased significantly. The rapid rise in price and trading activity caused the bullish gamma exposure (Gex) to be very dispersed, while the bearish Gex is almost negligible, indicating the market is in a fully long state. After 10 months of a bear market, cryptocurrency has finally seen a decent rally, and market sentiment is very optimistic. It can be said that a single bullish candle has changed beliefs. Currently, monthly out-of-the-money IV is not high, so it is still worth making some directional buys. Recently, the US stock market and the crypto space have surged as if working together to get a boost? 🪁Catalysts ▶️New highs in crypto prices Bitcoin broke through the $79,500 mark, triggering a short squeeze, with the heat directly spreading to US stock concept stocks ▶️Improved regulatory expectations The White House is pushing clarity legislation, the SEC signals easing of financing exemptions, and with a clear compliance path, institutional funds are accelerating their entry ▶️Amplified retail sentiment $HOOD has risen more sharply than $COIN because it relies not only on crypto trading but also leverages the recovery in retail options and stock market trading 🪁Subsequent forecasts ▶️Short-term surge and pullback The rapid rise driven by sentiment has caused technical overbought conditions; a sharp shakeout to digest profits is likely in the coming days, so chasing highs is not advisable ▶️Mid-term trend is optimistic As long as policy advances smoothly, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts, buying on dips offers good value ▶️Increasing performance differentiation The focus will shift from hype to performance; leading platforms like HOOD and COIN can command more premium, while marginal concept stocks lacking trading volume support have limited momentum DYOR Today, the market read: money is escaping fiat currency. $BTC rose +7.8% in a single day, $GLD hit a three-month high, while $QQQ only rose 0.08%. On the same trading day, risk assets and safe-haven assets rise simultaneously, with only one underlying logic — depreciation trading. Outline - 🔍 1. Gold Moves First: U.S. Treasury Repurchases Ignite Depreciation Concerns - ⚔️ 2. Bitcoin Follows the Rise: Not Risk Appetite, but Currency Hedging - 📈 3. What Funds Are Chasing: New Faces on the Volume Charts - 🧭 4. What's Next: The Fed Is No Longer the Only Story Today's Snapshot $BTC 77,196, +7.80% $ETH 2,384, +4.86% $QQQ +0.08%, $SPY +0.31% $DXY -0.07%, $GLD +1.29% $ IBIT +6.21% VIX Fear Index 15.47, -3.43% US Crude Oil $USO 134.88, +0.25% Dow 53,087.36, +0.62% 1. Gold Moves First: U.S. Treasury Repurchases Ignite Depreciation Concerns 🔍 Gold Rose Faster Than Stocks Today, This Is No Coincidence. $GLD +1.29%, surging to a three-month high, while $QQQ only rose 0.08%. The headline directly points out: Gold Jumps as Treasury Buybacks Revive DebasemeToday's surge in Bitcoin was quite strong In 24 hours, it surged from around $71,352 to $79,515, with a peak increase of over 11%. It has now pulled back to around $77,217. The night session atmosphere has completely changed. However, after the spike, it didn't continue to stay near the high point. The 4-hour chart shows a drop of about 0.77%, indicating clear profit-taking around $79,500. Tonight looks more like a high-level digestion rather than a straight upward rally. Currently, watch $76,222 as the short-term 4-hour support. If it holds, the price still has a chance to retest $78,000, or even try $79,515 again. If it breaks below $76,222, the possibility of a pullback to around $75,000 increases. On the futures side, nothing particularly extreme for now. BTC funding rate is about 0.0081%, the long-short account ratio is about 1.13, with longs slightly dominant, but it hasn't been pushed to one side yet. It doesn't look like a move purely driven by leverage for now. Tonight, just focus on the $76,222 and $79,515 levels. If support holds, the uptrend continues. If it can't break the previous high, it will keep consolidating sideways. If it breaks below $76,222, short-term sentiment will need to cool off and wait for the market to find new support. I hope for a takeoff, but it feels like there might be a drop first haha. Damn $BTC $ETH The strongest is still $HYPE After $SOL and Bitcoin broke through 78,000, capital began to overflow from Bitcoin into the Solana ecosystem. As a high Beta asset, SOL has greater catch-up elasticity than ETH. After the deflation proposals SIMD-0550 and SIMD-0553 are passed, the daily SOL burn amount will increase from 650 to 9,000. The market is pricing in deflation expectations in advance; this narrative has not yet been fully realized and can still support SOL for some time. Did anyone pick up Walmart yesterday? $WMT First, let's say that Walmart's earnings report is positive for the overall market. U.S. same-store sales grew 2.6%, below the expected 3.7% and 3.8%. But if there are statistical errors in the Labor Department's data, Walmart's earnings data better illustrate the issue. Although the Federal Reserve does not base decisions on public company financials, the slowdown in U.S. consumer growth should be an objective reality. Now, about Walmart, I've always wanted to buy some WMT as a defensive play, especially with the recent AI bubble burst or the continued decline of the dollar, companies like Walmart in the consumer sector are relatively safer. Yesterday's earnings report gave me a chance to get in; a 9% drop is a bit exaggerated, so I started building a base position. Although Walmart's sales in the U.S. are temporarily not ideal, its business expansion in China is trending well. Walmart China's net sales for the last four quarters, in chronological order, were $6.1 billion, $6.1 billion, $8.0 billion, and $7.0 billion. The $8.0 billion in Q1 is likely related to Chinese New Year consumption, showing a clear overall growth trend. Q2's year-over-year growth rate was 20.7%. Walmart's growth in India is also good. Revenue from these two countries accounts for about 5% to 7% of Walmart's total revenue, and this proportion is trending upward, which should continue to contribute incremental growth to Walmart's performance.At the first glance of tonight's opening, don't be fooled by the rebound too quickly. The US stock market opened in the green today, with the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq all trying to recover from last night's sharp drop. MarketWatch also reported that US stocks opened higher, and BTC continued to surge simultaneously. But this is not a comfortable broad risk-on return; it looks more like a rebound after yesterday's heavy sell-off. Last night's background was very unfavorable. On August 20, US stocks plunged: the S&P fell 0.9%, the Nasdaq dropped 1%, and the Dow declined 1.3%. The main pressure came from the rebound in long-term US Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and Walmart's earnings report hitting consumer expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield once approached 4.7%, and the 30-year yield was above 5.2%. This interest rate environment is unfriendly to tech stocks and high-valuation AI stocks. So tonight, I will focus on three things. First, watch if the 10-year Treasury yield can be pushed back below 4.7%. As long as yields continue to rise, the US stock rebound is likely to become an intraday spike followed by a fall, especially for the Nasdaq and semiconductors, which fear long-term rates continuing to squeeze valuations. Second, watch oil prices. Last night, oil prices rose due to Iran and geopolitical risks, boosting energy stocks and weakening tech stocks. If oil prices remain high, the market will reprice inflation pressure, and Fed rate hike expectations will be pulled back. Then it won't be just a stock issue; crypto will also be pressured together. Third, watch if tech stocks only have index gains but individual stocks lack strength. If tonight only heavyweights like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft slightly support the market, but semiconductors, software, and small caps lag behind, then this is a technical repair, not a$ETH I'm in, and really not looking back? I don't believe it. No matter what, this wave of profit-taking can't possibly let him buy back 3000 at 1900, right? And help those who bought at 2460 to get out??? It can't be that simple. Bearish but not shorting, my subjective view is that the bear market isn't over. This abnormal volatility is caused by the US stock market draining liquidity. With liquidity missing, the cost to push the price up is very low. I personally think this is a bull trap. Although the position is heavily in loss, I have chosen not to close it. Waiting quietly for a turnaround! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Three days, just three days. Bitcoin surged like a rocket ignited from the low of $64,100 on August 19 to $75,782 on August 21—an 18.2% increase, with the weekly gain exceeding 19%. Ethereum rose in sync, breaking through $2,400 from below $2,000, with a weekly gain of over 20%. BTC and ETH have both been strongly rising for the third consecutive trading day. This surge did not happen without reason. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to drop and the dollar index to fall below 99—a signal that liquidity gates are loosening. On the policy front, Trump convened crypto industry executives at the White House, urging Congress to push the CLARITY Act and even hinted that the U.S. is considering purchasing a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin reserves. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for several consecutive days, with about $517 million net inflow on August 19 alone. The Ethereum ETF also recorded $189 million net inflow on the same day, marking the strongest single-day performance in months. Market sentiment shifted from panic (index 46) to greed (index 72) in just three bullish candles. The total liquidation amount across the network once exceeded $4 billion, with shorts accounting for $3.7 billion, setting the most brutal short squeeze record since 2021. The three-day frenzy has left both recently freed whales and sidelined retail investors asking the same question—Is the bear market really over? $BTC $ETH Are people still asking if the bear market is over today? Tragic. If you count the time spent consolidating at the bottom, then it’s not over. But if no new lows are made, that’s no different from the bear market being over. Sandisk’s bear market lasted just one month. The last downward wave is usually the smallest, which is a characteristic, and BTC is the same. BTC’s bottom has now shifted to 65350, not the lowest point of 57758 from the first half of the year.$BTC and $ETH have surged crazily these past two days, and many people in the square are shouting wildly "Bull return!" Even Hui Jie was almost convinced that the bull market had returned, until just now after chatting with an old brother who has been in the crypto circle for more than ten years, I felt "maybe the bull market hasn't really returned" and formed a new view on the US stock market. The recent rise of mainstream big coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum is mainly due to the impact of US Treasury bonds. The US Treasury debt has reached 40 trillion, coinciding with the midterm elections. The government does not want a crash before the elections, so it took out 4 billion at once to repurchase US debt as an emergency measure. But 4 billion is just a drop in the bucket compared to 40 trillion, only stabilizing the short-term situation without addressing the root cause. At this time, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again, the US debt pressure will directly burst the economy, which also limits the space for rate hikes and is generally positive for the overall market. Institutions have seen the credit risks of the US dollar, so they decisively allocated part of their funds to gold and BTC, assets outside the US dollar system, driving up gold and the crypto market! #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Bitcoin's Big Surge in the Last Three Days Insider Info ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice This round of rally is not due to a single positive factor; it is a resonance of four factors: macro signals + regulatory expectations + leveraged short squeeze + spot capital, pushing the price from around 64,000 to over 77,000 USD in 3 days. 1. Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo The Treasury announced doubling the repo scale for 10-30 year long bonds, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to 4 billion USD, effective in September. - Long bond yields quickly declined, the dollar weakened; - Risk-free returns dropped, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Note: Treasury repo ≠ Federal Reserve QE money printing; it is just debt replacement with no new base currency, more of a sentiment signal, not massive liquidity injection. 2. Regulatory Sentiment Catalyst: White House Crypto Meeting, Rising Positive Expectations Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, publicly urging Congress to accelerate passing the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," expressing that the U.S. aims to be a leader in crypto and end the narrative of crypto suppression. Market trading expectations: U.S. crypto regulation is expected to become clearer, benefiting ETFs and institutional entry, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. 3. The Strongest Driver: Large-Scale Short Squeeze After months of prolonged consolidation, the derivatives market accumulated a large number of leveraged short positions, with many bearish bets expecting further decline. When the price broke key resistance levels, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, forcing shorts to buy Bitcoin to close positions; this passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. Data: Over a hundred thousand liquidations network-wide in 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 90%, marking one of the largest short squeezes in recent years. ⚠️ Short squeeze is a leveraged move; this buying is forced liquidation, not new long-term bullish capital. 4. Spot Institutional Capital Relay: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Following the news catalyst, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw rare large net inflows, exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main force; institutional buying absorbed chips, consolidating the rebound. Key points to watch in reality 1. The momentum of the short squeeze will be exhausted: after massive short liquidations, passive buying disappears; whether the rally continues depends on ETF sustained inflows, no rebound in U.S. bond yields, and substantive progress in regulatory legislation. 2. Treasury repo only supports long bond yields, cannot replace Fed rate cuts; the core switch for a bull market remains Fed interest rate policy. 3. After a short-term surge, profit-taking pressure is huge, and sharp corrections can occur anytime. Summary in one sentence Treasury repo lowered long bond yields as a base, the White House crypto meeting ignited sentiment, accumulated shorts were massively liquidated amplifying the rally, combined with ETF spot capital inflows, jointly creating this violent three-day rebound. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on follow-up real new buying capital relay. $BTC #Macro #CryptoReview Bitcoin's Big Surge in the Last Three Days Insider Info ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice This round of rally is not due to a single positive factor; it is a resonance of four factors: macro signals + regulatory expectations + leveraged short squeeze + spot capital, pushing the price from around 64,000 to over 77,000 USD in 3 days. 1. Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo The Treasury announced doubling the repo scale for 10-30 year long bonds, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to 4 billion USD, effective in September. - Long bond yields quickly declined, the dollar weakened; - Risk-free returns dropped, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Note: Treasury repo ≠ Federal Reserve QE money printing; it is just debt replacement with no new base currency, more of a sentiment signal, not massive liquidity injection. 2. Regulatory Sentiment Catalyst: White House Crypto Meeting, Rising Positive Expectations Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, publicly urging Congress to accelerate passing the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," expressing that the U.S. aims to be a leader in crypto and end the narrative of crypto suppression. Market trading expectations: U.S. crypto regulation is expected to become clearer, benefiting ETFs and institutional entry, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. 3. The Strongest Driver: Large-Scale Short Squeeze After months of prolonged consolidation, the derivatives market accumulated a large number of leveraged short positions, with many bearish bets expecting further decline. When the price broke key resistance levels, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, forcing shorts to buy Bitcoin to close positions; this passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. Data: Over a hundred thousand liquidations network-wide in 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 90%, marking one of the largest short squeezes in recent years. ⚠️ Short squeeze is a leveraged move; this buying is forced liquidation, not new long-term bullish capital. 4. Spot Institutional Capital Relay: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Following the news catalyst, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw rare large net inflows, exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main force; institutional buying absorbed chips, consolidating the rebound. Key points to watch in reality 1. The momentum of the short squeeze will be exhausted: after massive short liquidations, passive buying disappears; whether the rally continues depends on ETF sustained inflows, no rebound in U.S. bond yields, and substantive progress in regulatory legislation. 2. Treasury repo only supports long bond yields, cannot replace Fed rate cuts; the core switch for a bull market remains Fed interest rate policy. 3. After a short-term surge, profit-taking pressure is huge, and sharp corrections can occur anytime. Summary in one sentence Treasury repo lowered long bond yields as a base, the White House crypto meeting ignited sentiment, accumulated shorts were massively liquidated amplifying the rally, combined with ETF spot capital inflows, jointly creating this violent three-day rebound. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on follow-up real new buying capital relay. $BTC #Macro #CryptoReview Bitcoin's Big Surge in the Last Three Days Insider Info ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice This round of rally is not due to a single positive factor; it is a resonance of four factors: macro signals + regulatory expectations + leveraged short squeeze + spot capital, pushing the price from around 64,000 to over 77,000 USD in 3 days. 1. Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo The Treasury announced doubling the repo scale for 10-30 year long bonds, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to 4 billion USD, effective in September. - Long bond yields quickly declined, the dollar weakened; - Risk-free returns dropped, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Note: Treasury repo ≠ Federal Reserve QE money printing; it is just debt replacement with no new base currency, more of a sentiment signal, not massive liquidity injection. 2. Regulatory Sentiment Catalyst: White House Crypto Meeting, Rising Positive Expectations Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, publicly urging Congress to accelerate passing the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," expressing that the U.S. aims to be a leader in crypto and end the narrative of crypto suppression. Market trading expectations: U.S. crypto regulation is expected to become clearer, benefiting ETFs and institutional entry, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. 3. The Strongest Driver: Large-Scale Short Squeeze After months of prolonged consolidation, the derivatives market accumulated a large number of leveraged short positions, with many bearish bets expecting further decline. When the price broke key resistance levels, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, forcing shorts to buy Bitcoin to close positions; this passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. Data: Over a hundred thousand liquidations network-wide in 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 90%, marking one of the largest short squeezes in recent years. ⚠️ Short squeeze is a leveraged move; this buying is forced liquidation, not new long-term bullish capital. 4. Spot Institutional Capital Relay: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Following the news catalyst, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw rare large net inflows, exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main force; institutional buying absorbed chips, consolidating the rebound. Key points to watch in reality 1. The momentum of the short squeeze will be exhausted: after massive short liquidations, passive buying disappears; whether the rally continues depends on ETF sustained inflows, no rebound in U.S. bond yields, and substantive progress in regulatory legislation. 2. Treasury repo only supports long bond yields, cannot replace Fed rate cuts; the core switch for a bull market remains Fed interest rate policy. 3. After a short-term surge, profit-taking pressure is huge, and sharp corrections can occur anytime. Summary in one sentence Treasury repo lowered long bond yields as a base, the White House crypto meeting ignited sentiment, accumulated shorts were massively liquidated amplifying the rally, combined with ETF spot capital inflows, jointly creating this violent three-day rebound. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on follow-up real new buying capital relay. $BTC #Macro #CryptoReview BTC surges violently: After the short squeeze frenzy, can the market go further? Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin has been stuck in the $62,000-$66,900 range, repeatedly consolidating sideways, with market sentiment extremely low and the fear index dropping to a freezing point. Market consensus is overwhelmingly bearish, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining negative, many traders continuously building short leverage, and everyone is waiting for a decline. The turning point occurred on the evening of August 19, when Bitcoin began a straight rally from $64,000, reaching a high of $75,700. Within 24 hours, the total market liquidation reached $3.3 billion, with short positions accounting for $3.07 billion. Nearly 200,000 traders were liquidated, marking the largest wave of short liquidations since 2021. After the frenzy, questions arose one after another: Can this round of rally continue? After the simple short squeeze ends, will there be another mess of messes? My core judgment: **Short squeeze is gunpowder, policy is the fuse, and ETFs are the fuel. **Relying solely on short squeeze can only create a short-term rebound, but if all three resonate, the sustainability of this round of the market will likely exceed most expectations. There are three key signals worth paying close attention to. First, ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with institutional funds truly entering the market. On August 19, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $517 million, the highest since May 4, and has maintained net inflows for three consecutive days. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $285 million in a single day. This is not short-term speculative speculation; it indicates institutional funds are steadily building positions, providing a foundation for spot capital for the market. Second, both regulatory and macro liquidity benefits are being implemented simultaneously. On August 19, the White House held a crypto conference, where Trump met with industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and others in the Roosevelt Hall, sending a clear friendly signal: declaring the U.S. regulatory war over cryptocurrencies to be completely over, exploring the possibility of U.S. Bitcoin reserves, and acknowledging the buffer role of cryptocurrencies against the dollar. On the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term Treasury repurchase from $2 billion to $4 billion. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and the macro liquidity environment improved simultaneously. As the world's largest economy, regulatory and liquidity benefits resonated on the same day. Third, the funding rate for perpetual contracts turned positive, and spot futures demand recovered simultaneously. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, pointed out that since Bitcoin hit a historic high in 2025, this is the first time demand in both the spot and perpetual futures markets has turned positive. Previously, rebounds were mostly driven by futures leverage, with insufficient spot buying follow-up, resulting in a single-legged market; Now, spot demand is recovering, and the market structure is shifting from collective short selling to a balanced balance between long and bearish. He mentioned that if this state can last for a month, there is reason to judge that the bear market is over and a new bull market cycle has begun. A single-day market can only represent sentiment shorting; monthly data is the true establishment of the trend. Short squeezes lead to short closing positions, creating passive buying that pushes the price higher; Policy news ignited market expectations; ETF institutional funds provide sustained buying. The combination of these three factors has created this strong rally. But alongside optimism, risks cannot be ignored. IG technical analyst Axel Rudolph warns that the market will face a critical test ahead, and whether the price can hold the momentum around $75,000 is crucial. The core indicator to watch going forward is the flow of ETF funds in the coming week. If net ETF inflows are interrupted, then this round of rally is essentially a short-squeeze rebound, followed by profit-taking at high levels and leverage accumulating again, leading to severe market volatility. If institutional funds continue to flow in, it is a sign that a new trend has been confirmed. Short squeezes are fleeting; a true bull market requires a continuous flow of spot funds.Bitcoin's Big Surge in the Last Three Days Insider Info ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice This round of rally is not due to a single positive factor; it is a resonance of four factors: macro signals + regulatory expectations + leveraged short squeeze + spot capital, pushing the price from around 64,000 to over 77,000 USD in 3 days. 1. Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo The Treasury announced doubling the repo scale for 10-30 year long bonds, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to 4 billion USD, effective in September. - Long bond yields quickly declined, the dollar weakened; - Risk-free returns dropped, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Note: Treasury repo ≠ Federal Reserve QE money printing; it is just debt replacement with no new base currency, more of a sentiment signal, not massive liquidity injection. 2. Regulatory Sentiment Catalyst: White House Crypto Meeting, Rising Positive Expectations Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, publicly urging Congress to accelerate passing the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," expressing that the U.S. aims to be a leader in crypto and end the narrative of crypto suppression. Market trading expectations: U.S. crypto regulation is expected to become clearer, benefiting ETFs and institutional entry, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. 3. The Strongest Driver: Large-Scale Short Squeeze After months of prolonged consolidation, the derivatives market accumulated a large number of leveraged short positions, with many bearish bets expecting further decline. When the price broke key resistance levels, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, forcing shorts to buy Bitcoin to close positions; this passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. Data: Over a hundred thousand liquidations network-wide in 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 90%, marking one of the largest short squeezes in recent years. ⚠️ Short squeeze is a leveraged move; this buying is forced liquidation, not new long-term bullish capital. 4. Spot Institutional Capital Relay: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Following the news catalyst, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw rare large net inflows, exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main force; institutional buying absorbed chips, consolidating the rebound. Key points to watch in reality 1. The momentum of the short squeeze will be exhausted: after massive short liquidations, passive buying disappears; whether the rally continues depends on ETF sustained inflows, no rebound in U.S. bond yields, and substantive progress in regulatory legislation. 2. Treasury repo only supports long bond yields, cannot replace Fed rate cuts; the core switch for a bull market remains Fed interest rate policy. 3. After a short-term surge, profit-taking pressure is huge, and sharp corrections can occur anytime. Summary in one sentence Treasury repo lowered long bond yields as a base, the White House crypto meeting ignited sentiment, accumulated shorts were massively liquidated amplifying the rally, combined with ETF spot capital inflows, jointly creating this violent three-day rebound. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on follow-up real new buying capital relay. $BTC #Macro #CryptoReview 📈 Market Overview $Bitcoin surged toward $76,300 on Friday, up nearly 8% on the day and 18% on the week, while roughly $1B in short positions were liquidated over 24 hours. $Bitcoin: $76,301 +9.57% $Ethereum: $2,380 +5.69% Market Cap: $2.67T $BTC Dominance: 57.5% Fear & Greed Index: 72 (Greed) $Altcoin Index: 34/100 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTCRallyOrSqueeze #AnthropicIPONears #AnthropicIPONears Three days ago, the Bitcoin was at 64,000, but in two days it surged to 79,500, approaching 80,000. This time, for the first time in nine months, it has surpassed the 200-point moving average. This indicator is considered the benchmark for the bull-bear dividing line. The last time Bitcoin broke through and held firm was in November 2025, when it hit a historic high of 126,000, followed by a bear market that kept falling. Now Da Bing has returned!! From the news front, the trigger for this surge is the U.S. Treasury Department announcing that starting in September, the scale of the long-term Treasury repurchase program will at least double, injecting liquidity into the market and directly boosting risk assets, which means buying is even stronger. The logic is simply that the number of Treasuries on the market decreases, and the fewer yields mean higher prices. As yields rise, naturally people stop buying them, and large funds naturally shift to gold and BTC. This is the core reason for the surge, but it's worth noting that Coinbase's premium is still negative , indicating that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to truly recover. Although the market appears to be profiting across the board, the on-chain structure is still hesitating, which is precisely the current market reality. Bull markets usually start with the market moving first and news following behind. Especially now, Trump is about to face a mid-term choice. His election promises are somewhat inflated, and even in the mid-term, he will still stabilize his fundamentals. Remember, don't think an eternal bull market has arrived; this growth risk is even greater. To see a bull market, unless you can confirm that rate cuts are coming, if not, it will turn into a dead cat jump. What we're seeing now is mostly emotional pressure,After $ETH approached 78,000, ETH, as a high Beta asset, experienced a catch-up rally, with funds overflowing from the big coin to ETH. The Pectra upgrade narrative continues to ferment, and the market is pricing it in early. It rose from 1,900 to 2,400 in two days, an increase of 500 dollars. Catch-up rallies often indicate the rotation is nearing its end, but the end can also be the most frenzied phase. As long as the big coin keeps rising, ETH will continue to follow, but the risk of chasing the high is sharply increasing. Is Bitcoin returning to a bull market? The real risk lies in U.S. Treasury bonds On the surface, both risk assets and safe-haven assets are rising together, but the main theme is unified. The market is trading three key issues: escalation in the Iran situation, pressure on U.S. fiscal credit, and an intensive policy period in September. Oil prices are approaching $100. The U.S. plans to impose the "strictest secondary sanctions in history" on Iran, directly threatening Iranian oil buyers such as China. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply from 14 vessels to 7, Brent crude has risen above $93, up more than 7% this week. But the higher the oil price, the more uncomfortable Trump becomes—high inflation ultimately backfires on the U.S. itself. Gold is rising because the dollar's credit is being discounted. The Treasury has doubled the size of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, yet the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at 4.7%, and the 30-year yield is as high as 5.25%. Gold rising alongside high yields means the market is no longer trading interest rates but is trading the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy—that is the real risk. Bitcoin has broken through 75,000, but don’t call it a bull market yet. This rally is driven by short covering and regulatory expectations around the CLARITY Act, with the key vote on September 15 serving as the confirmation window. Before then, macro risks (oil prices + U.S. Treasuries + inflation) could strike back at any time. Summary: The combination of rising gold and oil prices alongside falling U.S. Treasuries is the most dangerous mix. How the U.S. suppresses long-term interest rates—whether by continuing repurchases, changing debt issuance structure, or forcing the Fed to intervene—will be the biggest suspense going forward. The real risk lies in U.S. Treasuries. $XAU $CL $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 $BTC This wave of BTC's violent surge has many wondering what force is driving the market upward. In the past 24 hours, the entire crypto market's heat has been maxed out. BTC surged directly from 64,000 to break through the 70,000 mark, with Ethereum also rising sharply in sync. After a round of intense spikes, hundreds of thousands of traders were liquidated, with tens of billions of dollars in positions directly cleared out. This round of rally is not driven by a single positive factor but is the result of multiple news events overlapping and resonating. First, regarding U.S. Treasury bonds, there was a policy change: the U.S. Treasury adjusted the scale of bond repurchases, causing long-term Treasury yields to drop rapidly. The market began trading on expectations of looser liquidity, and risk assets moved collectively. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate changes and was the first to see a price rebound. Second, there were positive signals from U.S. crypto regulation. Senior officials met with management from leading crypto companies to promote the implementation of related crypto legislation. Market sentiment was greatly boosted, and institutions also provided relatively optimistic price targets. Another crucial point is the concentrated short squeeze. For a long time, BTC oscillated around 60,000, accumulating a large number of short positions. Once the price broke through key resistance, it triggered a short squeeze cycle, with shorts continuously stopping losses and closing positions, further pushing the market higher. A large number of short positions were liquidated in a short time. 这波拉升，已经进入"不讲道理"的阶段了。$BTC 六个交易日从 6.31 万干到 7.73 万，涨幅 22%，日内最高摸到 7.96 万——八万关口就在眼前。短期强度指标 RSI6 飙到 96.2，什么概念？比八月中旬那波逼空的 90 还高一截，属于历史极端区间。价格甩开五天均线七千八百块，这种斜率，通常只在情绪最亢奋的加速段出现。 先看接力的钱从哪来。第一股是 ETF 的机构钱：前三天现货 ETF 连续净流入（合计超 7 亿美金），财政部扩大长债回购之后，Bitwise 的 CIO 直接喊话——比特币是"最快能护住储蓄的那匹马"，硬资产叙事正在被机构接受；第二股是空头的燃料：链上那位著名的鲸鱼"先定 10 个大目标"，8 万附近的空单被打掉后止损亏了 1015 万美金，转头又在 7.6 万重新开空、止损挂在 80500——空头不死，逼空就不停，每一次被扫掉止损，都是给多头送燃料；第三股是情绪盘：64% 看多，FOMO 的资金还在往里面挤。 但"加速段"恰恰是最该冷静的时候，因为这种涨法本身就是情绪末段的特征。几个信号摆在这：RSI6 96 已经是历史级超买；价格和均线的乖离拉得过大，4 billion shorts physically wiped out: Bitcoin breaks through $78,000, why does the range-bound market mindset become the number one scapegoat in this rally? The entire network's shorts are undergoing a brutal massacre that will go down in crypto history. In just two or three trading days, Bitcoin has smashed through multiple key resistance levels with overwhelming force, soaring past $78,000 and reaching as high as the $79,000 area, driving the global crypto market cap to reclaim the $2.5 trillion mark with strength. Accompanying this sky-high massive bullish candle, the 24-hour short liquidation volume across the network has exceeded a staggering $4 billion, marking the most shocking short squeeze disaster of the year. Why has the "short on rallies, top out at resistance" strategy, which has worked repeatedly over the past few months, instantly turned into a devastating meat grinder during this rally? The answer lies in the fact that the vast majority of retail traders are trapped in the "range-bound inertia" mindset. During months of narrow consolidation, the market got used to rebounds being capped and sharp pullbacks, a dull-knife market. Many leveraged funds gradually became desensitized to breakout signals, even treating every volume surge as a perfect left-side shorting opportunity. But they seriously overlooked a structural change quietly happening on the on-chain supply side and in macro liquidity. On the supply side, the spot Bitcoin inventory on major global exchanges has dropped to an absolute low not seen in nearly six years. Silent accumulation at low levels by long-term whales, Wall Street spot ETFs, and corporate strategic treasuries has drained the floating spot supply available for trading in the secondary market to an extremely scarce edge. With very shallow spot buy depth and a tight circulating supply structure, once large macro players slightly increase their purchase quotas, buy orders will gap, and prices can only jump sharply upward to find sellers. On the macro side, the explosive growth of U.S. Treasury issuance and increasing long-term debt pressure are forcing global long-term hedge capital to recalibrate their balance sheets. As government deficits balloon and the purchasing power of traditional fiat is institutionally diluted, Bitcoin—with its absolute hard cap—becomes the perfect natural hedge against sovereign debt risk. When this macro-level spot demand collides head-on with the mountain of high-leverage shorts in the derivatives market, the shorts’ stop-loss buy orders become the cheapest rocket fuel for the bulls. For traders still at the table, this $4 billion super short squeeze sounds a warning again: at a stage where the trend has clearly undergone a right-side qualitative change, any counter-trend attempts to top or short the highs are fighting against the gravity law of the larger cycle. Above $78,000, the market may need a period of intense wide-range volatility to wash out the chasing momentum traders. Staying calm with spot base positions and patiently waiting for confirmation of top-to-bottom flips is far more certain than blindly chasing highs at the peak of euphoria. Facing Bitcoin breaking $78,000 to hit a multi-month high, do you think the next stop in this rally will be a direct assault on the all-time high, or will there be a sharp shakeout before the $80,000 milestone? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #BTC accelerates its rally, can the funds continue to take over? Tonight, Bitcoin continues to go crazy. Yesterday, a single +11% surge stunned everyone, and today it hasn't cooled off; instead, it keeps pushing higher. Yesterday it closed at 71,974, today it jumped directly from 71,132 to an intraday high of 79,500, closing at 77,763. Two consecutive days of strong bullish candles have lifted the price from 64,000 all the way close to 80,000, a cumulative increase of over 20% in two days. The volume of 3.117 billion USDT looks slightly smaller than yesterday's 30.5 billion, but that's due to the difference in 24-hour rolling calculation; today's volume is still several times the recent average. The biggest fear with this kind of move is "rising to a point where you dare not short nor chase longs." My current stance is clear: do not chase, wait for a pullback to confirm. 📰 News aspect The real-time news capture channel is not working, no single hard catalyst or fabricated event detected. The technicals plus derivatives show a "two-day consecutive bullish candle short squeeze + OI increase + moderate fees" resonance, more like a technical short squeeze after the stop-loss at 64,500 was triggered the day before yesterday, with funds that missed the move chasing in for two consecutive days, not triggered by a single news event. Macro risk sentiment continues to improve tonight, moving from fear to greed over two days, matching the rhythm. $ETH Ethereum's strong breakout, a bear-to-bull reversal in just three days? In just three days, Ethereum completed a stunning comeback. On August 19, Ethereum was hovering around $1900. After the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time, ETH surged in response, briefly breaking through $2112 intraday. The rally did not stop—on August 20, Ethereum surged 18.5% in a single day to $2266.79; on August 21, it pushed further, breaking $2430 at one point, hitting a nearly four-month high. The weekly gain reached 25%, currently trading at $2361. Who ignited this fire? Macro liquidity valve opened. The U.S. Treasury expanded bond repurchase operations, causing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to drop from 5.337% to 5.187%, and the dollar index fell below 99. Lower yields reduced the appeal of risk-free assets, making interest-free assets like Ethereum relatively more attractive. A flood of institutional funds poured in. On August 19, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $517.2 million in a single day, the highest in nine months; on August 20, another $221 million flowed in. On the same day, Ethereum's active hourly buy volume surged to $2.55 billion, the third highest in nearly six months. Regulatory outlook brightened. On August 18, the SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, aiming to exempt some crypto investments from securities law registration requirements. Trump convened crypto industry executives at the White House, urging the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act. The expectation of clearer regulation became the second tailwind for the rally. Short sellers suffered a brutal squeeze. Over $2.7 billion in short liquidations occurred in the crypto market within 24 hours, with about $1 billion in ETH shorts liquidated. The buy pressure from short covering further amplified the gains. Standard Chartered previously predicted 2026 would be the "Year of Ethereum," with a year-end target price of $7500. Currently, Ethereum has broken through the $2000 psychological barrier and the 200-day exponential moving average. Analysts point out that if it can sustain above the $2300 to $2450 range, it could open the path to $2700 to $3000. However, caution is still needed amid the celebration. The 14-day RSI is approaching 82, entering the overbought zone; some large whales have started selling to take profits. Short-term correction risks cannot be ignored. In any case, Ethereum has announced its return to the market with three strong bullish candles. $ETH $ONG rose and then pulled back; why is the price moving so fast? I analyzed ONG yesterday. First, this coin has experienced similar explosive rallies followed by sharp drops before. Although the overall coin narrative has some news-driven stimuli, these short-term positives without real economic value are easily realized and priced in early. And today, as soon as the network upgrade was completed, the main players took advantage of the good news to sell off. Many people think today's fake pump was just a low-profile event with little real value injected into it. #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX An unprecedented event in the crypto world has arrived: the president personally endorsed a DeFi platform. At a crypto and tech executive meeting at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said CFTC Chairman Selig is working hard to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S. market "in a fully compliant and legal manner," and "is working very hard to achieve this and genuinely hopes to see it come to fruition." This is the first time the U.S. government has publicly named this offshore perpetual contract platform in its regulatory framework. $HYPE immediately jumped from around 62 and has already reached 77.33 today, up about 34% in a week, setting a new all-time high. First, let's clarify the weight of this matter. Hyperliquid is currently the largest on-chain perpetual contract platform. Contracts have no expiration date, and traders don't even need to open an account—they log in directly to their wallet. This model has operated outside U.S. regulation for decades and is dominated by offshore platforms. Trump's statement essentially means the U.S. wants to "absorb" this market and bring it home. The market reaction was immediate: three ETFs linked to $HYPE each rose nearly 20% in a single day, and the Nasdaq listed platform called Hyperliquid Strategies soared 30%; The reverse is equally spectacular—CME fell 3.4%, CBOE dropped 6.1%. Traditional exchange giants voted with their feet, fearing this wolf might actually enter the market to grab a share. But don't rush to treat "entering the U.S." as a done deal. Trump's exact words were, "Selig is working hard," but the reality is: noAfter the sharp rise in BTC and ETH, the market is once again asking for direction. Is this current trend a breather for further gains, or is it a signal of a peak? There are three main key facts confirmed in the original text. First, BTC and ETH showed strong gains and then took a breather. Second, a significant portion of short positions have already been liquidated or contracted. Third, the topic of market conversation shifted from the possibility of a decline to whether the rise will continue. This shift is not just a shift in mood, but reflects a shift in the structure of the position. The fact that short liquidations have occurred means the market has repriced one-way expectations, and the key question now is how the waiting buying funds will be aligned. Structurally, the simultaneous rise of BTC and ETH forms the foundation for shifting risk appetite toward altcoins. Once these two assets settle first, the next step opens up a path for liquidity to move to the relatively underserved stock group. Although not yet confirmed, the relative strength of altcoins during this period Bitcoin Recent Trend Analysis (as of 2026-08-21) One-sentence conclusion: The probability of short-term (1–2 weeks) surges and pullbacks, with wide fluctuations slightly higher; In the medium (second half), driven by rate cuts + liquidity shifts, the probability of an increase is slightly higher—but this is "bullish," not "certain," and volatility will be very sharp. 1. Current Market Overview Indicator Data Current price (8/21) is about 74,000–78,000 USD (varies slightly by exchange). Recent 3-day trend: 8/19 low of 64,700 → 8/21 high of 78,400, 3-day rebound of about 15–20%. August monthly performance is about +6.4%. The 2026 range high is about 97,900 / low is about 57,700 USD. This is about 40% down from the all-time high of about 126,000 ATH, still in deep drawdown In other words: the major cycle is downward (down 20%+ from the year's high), but in the past three days, there has been a sharp rebound, breaking through the 70,000 and 73,000 marks. 2. Why did it fall before (dropped to around 62,000 in mid-August) Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, and the "hardcore bull" sell-off dealt a heavy blow to market sentiment (Cailian Press); The Fed sent a hawkish signal, at one point triggering about $400 million in leveraged long liquidations, with the market dropping 5% in a single day to $62,000; Previously, it had fallen for four consecutive weeks, but the technical level was broken, and the market briefly declinedAfter the short squeeze, who is waiting to take over at 80K? In five days, $14,000. $BTC pulled from 63K to 77K, and the market narrative has completely changed—no longer talking about a "rebound," everyone is saying "breakthrough." $1.24 billion liquidated in 24 hours, shorts accounted for the majority. The exchange's short squeeze indicator is 6.94, the highest since last November. Short covering is indeed the main force in this first half of the rally, but that momentum is weakening. Whether the market can continue next depends on one key thing: whether spot buying can hold. Everyone's eyes are on 80K. This level is very delicate—on-chain data shows whales have placed many sell orders around there, and above that, about $3.6 billion in shorts are waiting to be liquidated. Two forces converge at the same point: if spot buying is strong enough to eat through the sell wall, shorts will be squeezed again; if buying can't keep up, the high-level deleveraging won't be gentle. ETFs are stable on this front. BTC net inflow in a single day is $606 million, ETH $221 million, both marking the fourth consecutive day of net buying. Sustained money flow is more worth watching than a single big green candle. Altcoins are moving too; ETH, SOL, and high-beta coins are following, with altcoin market cap rising over 90 billion in two days. Structurally, it's no longer just BTC pulling the market. Macro is giving some short-term relief: U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar weakened, and risk assets caught a breather. But long-term rates remain high, Jackson Hole is still ahead, so don’t rush to say the alarm is off. So back to the title question—who is waiting to take over at 80K? ETFs are buying, retail is following, but whales’ sell orders are also set there. Now is not the time to guess direction; watching spot trading volume and ETF inflow rhythm is more practical than anything. Real money entering means 80K is the starting point; if not, this rally is just a concentrated release of contract trading. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ $ETH Bitcoin's Big Surge in the Last Three Days: Insider Analysis ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice This recent rally is not driven by a single positive factor; it is a resonance of four elements: macro signals + regulatory expectations + leveraged short squeeze + spot capital, pushing the price from around 64,000 to over 77,000 USD in 3 days. 1. Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Repo The Treasury announced doubling the repo scale for 10-30 year long bonds, raising the single transaction cap from 2 billion to 4 billion USD, effective in September. - Long bond yields dropped rapidly, weakening the USD; - Risk-free returns declined, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, easing valuation pressure on risk assets. Note: Treasury repos ≠ Federal Reserve QE money printing; it's just debt replacement with no new base currency, more of a sentiment signal than massive liquidity injection. 2. Regulatory Sentiment Catalyst: White House Crypto Meeting, Rising Positive Expectations Trump met with Coinbase and other crypto industry executives, publicly urging Congress to accelerate passing the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," expressing that the U.S. aims to be a leader in crypto and end the narrative of crypto suppression. Market trading expectations: U.S. crypto regulation is expected to become clearer, benefiting ETFs and institutional entry, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. 3. The Strongest Driver: Large-Scale Short Squeeze After months of prolonged consolidation, the derivatives market accumulated massive leveraged short positions, with many bearish bets expecting further declines. When the price broke key resistance levels, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, forcing shorts to buy Bitcoin to close positions; this passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. Data: Over 100,000 liquidations network-wide in 24 hours, with short liquidations accounting for 90%, marking one of the largest short squeezes in recent years. ⚠️ Short squeeze is a leveraged move; this buying is forced liquidation, not new long-term bullish capital. 4. Spot Institutional Capital Relay: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Following the news catalyst, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw rare large net inflows, exceeding 500 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main driver; institutional buying absorbed chips, consolidating the rebound. Key Points to Watch in Reality 1. The momentum of the short squeeze will exhaust: after massive short liquidations, passive buy orders disappear; whether the rally continues depends on ETF sustained inflows, U.S. bond yields not rebounding, and substantive progress in regulatory legislation. 2. Treasury repos only support long bond yields; they cannot replace Fed rate cuts. The core switch for a bull market remains Fed interest rate policy. 3. After a short-term surge, profit-taking pressure is huge, and sharp corrections can occur anytime. Summary in One Sentence Treasury repos suppressed long bond yields as a base, the White House crypto meeting ignited sentiment, accumulated shorts were massively liquidated amplifying gains, combined with ETF spot capital inflows, jointly creating this violent three-day rebound. The short squeeze has strong explosive power, but sustainability depends on follow-up genuine new buying capital. $BTC #Macro #CryptoReview Gold hits a new high again, but the real logic behind it has changed This time, gold has climbed back near $4600, reaching about $4601, marking a new high since mid-May. Spot gold has risen for the third consecutive week this week.  I believe this round of gains can no longer be simply understood as "safe-haven funds buying gold." What truly drives the gold price is the resonance of several factors simultaneously: First, the weakening of the US dollar. A weaker dollar directly lowers the cost for non-dollar investors to hold gold, providing support for gold prices.  Second, the pressure on US Treasury yields has eased temporarily. After the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, long-term yields quickly fell, and the market began to trade on improved liquidity again. Gold quickly broke through $4400 and $4500 as a result.  Third, the market’s concern is no longer just inflation but also US fiscal health. The US debt continues to grow, and worries about long-term fiscal deficits, dollar credit, and Treasury supply are increasing. This is what makes this gold rally special: In the past, gold often rose because "interest rates fell." Now, more and more often, it’s because the market is starting to doubt whether "holding US dollar assets long-term is still safe enough." So even if Treasury yields don’t keep falling sharply, gold can still rise. Some Wall Street analysts also believe that US fiscal and debt sustainability is becoming an important variable affecting gold.  ⸻ Can gold continue to rise? In the short term, I wouldn’t chase judging "how much more it can rise," but rather watch if $4500 can turn from a resistance level into support. Gold has already risen rapidly for several consecutive sessions, and short-term profit-taking has clearly increased. If: $4600 breaks through → then retests near $4500 without breaking below → the dollar continues to weaken → long-term yields don’t keep rising Then the upward structure remains intact, and we can continue to watch the $4650 and $4700 areas. But if it spikes and quickly falls back below $4500, we need to guard against concentrated short-term profit-taking. Especially note: Gold is no longer in a low-level startup phase but in an acceleration phase after the breakout. So volatility will clearly increase. ⸻ There is actually a signal worth paying attention to for BTC This is also why I think you’ve been continuously focusing on the combination of **"gold rising, BTC rising"** recently. Gold and BTC strengthening simultaneously essentially trade the same thing: Long-term concerns about traditional fiat and sovereign debt systems. But their capital attributes differ. Gold: dominated more by institutions, central banks, and safe-haven funds. BTC: influenced more by ETFs, institutional funds, and risk appetite capital. So gold hitting new highs doesn’t necessarily mean BTC will simultaneously hit new highs. But if in the future we see: Gold continuing to hit new highs + the dollar keeps weakening + long-term US Treasury yields fall + BTC ETFs continue net inflows Then for BTC, this is a macro combination that deserves serious attention. In short: what really matters in this gold rally is not the word "safe-haven," but that the market is repricing risks related to the dollar, long-term US Treasuries, and fiscal health. Whether gold can continue to rise depends on whether $4500 can hold; whether BTC can take over depends on whether this "de-dollarization/hard asset allocation" logic can further spread from gold to digital assets. $BTC #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 79,500 in two days. Do you think retail investors shouted it out? Don't be ridiculous. Behind this are four forces simultaneously stepping on the gas, directly pushing the price to the sky, which has nothing to do with you or me. First force: The U.S. government changed its tune. Trump personally said they are studying large-scale Bitcoin hoarding and added, "It's beneficial to the dollar." The White House crypto roundtable directly pushed the CLARITY Act, and even Hyperliquid is rushing to comply with U.S. regulations. Previously, regulation was the biggest bearish factor; now it has become a catalyst, flipping faster than a book. Second force: Bassett stepped in to save U.S. debt, pumping money forcefully into the market. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2019. The Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond buybacks, at least $4 billion per transaction. Yields were suppressed, and the dollar fell to a three-month low. When the dollar weakens, if money doesn't flow into BTC, where else would it go? Third force: Institutions are buying with real money, not just talk. On August 19, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in one day, the largest in three and a half months. CryptoQuant confirmed: spot and perpetual demand turned positive simultaneously for the first time since October last year. Institutions are voting with their actions, while retail investors are still hesitating whether to chase. Fourth force: Shorts were liquidated and turned into fuel. Over $3 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, with $1 billion wiped out in one hour, the largest liquidation wave since 2021. Whales conveniently increased their net holdings by 43,000 coins.$BTC +7.40%, $XRP +17.4% pressed $QQQ -0.72% down, but don't rush to call it an independent crypto market rally; this kind of forceful move actually makes people think twice. Look at the numbers Crypto $BTC 76,575 +7.40% $ETH 2,379 +4.99% US stocks $QQQ -0.72% $SPY -0.84% $IBIT +6.24% Forex $DXY -- $GLD +0.34% Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz are still adding strength to inflation expectations, US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations, while the crypto market and ETFs represented by $IBIT are competing for risk appetite; several switches are still hanging in the balance. Money is still flowing into $QQQ and AI semiconductors, but $QQQ closed at -0.72%, indicating it’s not a blind buy; $IBIT is weaker than $BTC, if ETFs soften, spot is not truly strong; $ETH didn’t keep up with $BTC, funds still prefer the stronger one; $DXY has eased, giving risk assets some breathing room; $GLD is still rising, safe-haven money hasn’t fully withdrawn. Don’t chase the highs; whoever shows weakness first will set today’s direction. Stay tuned. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？Gold rose 2.36%, Micron rose 4.92%, SK Hynix rose 3.19%, and the S&P 500 was only down 0.02%. Today, money is buying "things getting more expensive," not tech growth. Crypto stocks were lifted by the same wave, MARA +5.65%, MSTR +5.26%, Coinbase +5.08%. But MSTR was up 20% yesterday and only 5% today, intraday moving from 108 up to 127 then back to 119, with a volatility of nearly 18 points. Those chasing highs have already been on a roller coaster. Yesterday I said this was regulatory expectations; today it looks more like a bunch of money searching for baskets that "will rise in price," with gold, storage, and crypto stocks all included. Miners' gains are not less than MSTR's, indicating it's not just a few policy stocks dancing alone, but the whole sector rising together. But with such scattered gains, I'm not sure if this is the start of a new trend or the end of the old one soon. $SPCX's rocket didn't bring along $UNITREE's robot, so both plummeted. Just as I predicted before, the rocket and the robot are bound to fall, unless the rocket brings the robot dog to perform an interstellar tour, these two bubbles will continue to drop. Previously, we explained why Unitree fell; this time let's talk about the rocket. Why can't the big rocket take off? Both the space narrative and reality are moving in a better direction, but there are two reasons: 1. Regarding rocket recovery technology, the market narrative used to portray it as a unique core advantage of a certain company. However, as China's commercial aerospace progress in reusable rockets has been gradually verified, this "exclusive technology barrier" narrative has been broken — currently, it can only be said that this technology leads at the single company level, not an industry-wide irreplaceable capability. 2. SPCX's current valuation has reached about 2 trillion dollars, indicating a high level of bubble. Although some institutions believe this is just the starting point for long-term space, the long-term expectations are still far from being realized. Right now, more attention should be paid to the actual impact of recent share unlocks — about 7% of shares have been unlocked, creating obvious selling pressure, and multiple rounds of unlocks are still pending. At such a high valuation, whether the market can continuously absorb this selling pressure remains highly uncertain. Therefore, I believe 130 is still not the bottom this round. If you try to bottom-fish now, it might end up bottom-fishing your home. Although I have already taken profits at 131 with my brothers. The above is my personal thought sharing and does not constitute investment advice. BTC’s 7.92% move looks more like a positioning reset than a full-blown risk-on confirmation. ETH and SOL are participating, but their more modest gains suggest capital is still favoring BTC’s liquidity rather than rotating aggressively further down the curve. The FOMC split adds another layer of uncertainty, keeping the policy path less predictable. For now, I’d view this rally as credible—but not yet self-sustaining. I’d want to see stronger follow-through across major alts before calling this Japan hasn't approved new licenses for four years; this time, institutions are allowed in first On August 21, Japan's Financial Services Agency updated the list: Laser Digital Japan registered as Kanto No. 00032. The last new registration was in October 2022, nearly four years ago. Behind it is Nomura, authorized to handle 6 assets including BTC and ETH. My judgment is not that "Japan is fully opening up," but that regulators have first opened a narrow door for institutions with traditional financial backgrounds. If no second approval follows and no real transaction disclosures appear, this counts as a single-point release; only with consecutive new licenses will I revise my judgment to accelerated opening. Do you see this as Japan reopening broadly, or just opening the door to large institutions? I'll share a follow-up signal that might change your judgment. Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion. #OKX星球 #BTC #ETH BTC has been skyrocketing this week, while stocks are having a completely different week. Today there was a very unusual scene. Bitcoin's gains this week are close to 20%, marking one of the strongest weeks in about two and a half years. Gold has also surged to nearly a three-month high. But at the same time, global stocks may be recording their worst week since mid-July. Behind this, everyone is actually trading the same thing: U.S. long-term debt and the purchasing power of the dollar. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury remains above 5.2%, and federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion. After the Treasury stepped in to expand long-term Treasury buybacks, the market was not fully reassured. So the most interesting aspect of this BTC rally may not be that "Risk-on is back." On the contrary: Some funds may be treating BTC and gold as the same kind of macro trade. If this logic holds, then BTC's most important competitor in the future may not necessarily be the Nasdaq. It could be the U.S. Treasury market. Source: Reuters: Latest global market update as of August 21⁠Reincarnation in the twenty-sixth life! $CORE is experiencing a rebound rally, but this rise is mostly driven by funds from the $BTC ecosystem sector, not a fundamental turnaround in the project itself. The $BICO market is also gradually warming up. Breaking down the hidden risks in the market: This round of increase has no major new achievements landing; it relies solely on rehashing the old BTCFi narrative, with incremental funds mainly from short-term speculators seeking quick in-and-out trades, showing very low holding loyalty. Once the hype fades, funds will quickly withdraw. There is a massive amount of historical trapped positions piled above CORE. Chips trapped from the historical highs will flood out heavy selling pressure as soon as the price offers a chance to recover, making every rebound a window for escape, severely suppressing upward space. The anticipated SatPay revenue and real buyback story remain in the realm of fantasy, lacking solid performance support. Users on the OKX planet see the candlestick turn red and directly ignore these realities, starting to fantasize again about a BTC bull market driving CORE’s price. Macro liquidity can push the price up in the short term but cannot magically absorb the heavy historical selling pressure. Grand narratives can ignite short-term hype but cannot replace real business profits. Once funds leave, the decline will also come unexpectedly. CORE is rising without positive news, and the risks cannot be ignored. Will you reduce your position on the rebound or hold on to gamble on the subsequent market? #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Looking back at the crossroads of the $CORE track in 2023, only lingering regret remains. Holding on here, watching $SUI's rounds of upward trends pass by, wasting a lot of time stuck in endless sideways fluctuations. The huge gap in the market has never been due to luck. $SUI broke out of a long-term trend, relying on continuous institutional capital deployment, steady ecological implementation, and constantly realized on-chain real data. In contrast, the current situation is deeply stuck in a long-term fluctuation quagmire, with brief rebounds quickly fading, and declines sharp and decisive, with hopes repeatedly crushed by market reality. Mountains of trapped positions exit at highs, and continuously unlocked chips keep releasing selling pressure. No matter how flashy the narrative and promotion, it can never translate into solid ecological growth; off-market incremental funds remain cautious and unwilling to enter and support. Waiting for bull market dividends won't save a long-term weakening market. To catch up with the top public chains' market heights, ecological implementation, inflow of incremental funds, and chip structure repair are all indispensable. Persistently waiting for a miraculous reversal consumes not only the principal but also irretrievable time costs. The market will not cover past choices; sunk costs cannot be recovered, and the market will never accommodate subjective expectations. Reality is right in front of us; all obsessions must face the answers given by the market. The heaviest cost of investing is often the time slowly consumed. ⚠️This is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; trade rationally.#Gold Returns to $4500, Institutional Divergence Intensifies Latest Data Spot gold has risen above $4500, driven by US Treasury repo news, surging 4.35% in a single day; resistance at $4600, support from BTC strengthening in sync. Market Consensus One camp believes that fiscal policy plus central bank gold purchases signal the start of a new gold bull market; the other camp sees it as just a rebound, with US Treasury repo being only a short-term liquidity operation and unsustainable. Underlying Logic Analysis The trigger for the rise is the US Treasury expanding long-term debt repos, pushing down long-end yields, not QE money printing. In the mid-to-long term, central bank gold purchases provide a floor, but the short-term surge is large with profit-taking pressure accumulating. Gold represents macro risk appetite; during the downtrend of US Treasuries, it tends to move in the same direction as $BTC; once inflation rebounds and US Treasury yields rise again, gold will come under pressure, indirectly suppressing the crypto market. The institutional divergence essentially reflects a game over the future trajectory of US Treasuries and inflation. Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) The macro environment remains favorable, but there is short-term correction risk. Focus on changes in US Treasury yields; gold strength provides macro support to the crypto space but cannot be taken as an absolute guarantee of crypto price increases. BTC's rebound this time is strong, but it won't directly confirm the end of the bear market. The reason is simple: in 2019, BTC rose about 40% in two days and broke through the 200-day moving average, but then it fell again; in 2022, there was also a 23% rise over 6 days, followed by a full retracement. The real key now is not how much more it can rise, but whether the 200-day moving average can truly become support after the first obvious pullback. If it can hold steadily in the coming weeks, I will significantly increase my judgment that the low point has already appeared. At this stage, my thinking is still: you can start accumulating, but there's no need to chase.$ETH $BTC Someone asked Sanjin Ge, has the bull really arrived? If I hadn't looked at this data, I might also have thought the bull was back!!! The U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, and with regulators starting to ease restrictions, a large amount of capital is withdrawing from U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq index is weakening, and a weak dollar is bullish for the crypto space. If the U.S. midterm elections from August to October do not favor Trump, Bitcoin will definitely crash instantly because the Trump administration supports Bitcoin and was the key factor for this round of BTC reaching 120k. If the election is unfavorable, it will trigger a lot of arbitrage liquidation. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Trump's White House Summit Reiterates National Reserve: What Would Happen to the Market If the U.S. Really Designated Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset? Under the spotlight of the White House Crypto Summit, Trump once again raised a blockbuster topic that could reshape the global financial landscape. He publicly stated that the U.S. government had extensively discussed the possibility of accumulating a significant amount of Bitcoin and other core crypto assets, and reiterated the policy vision of advancing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the CLARITY Act, and comprehensive stablecoin legislation. Although this statement is currently still at the stage of policy advocacy and political intent, with specific implementation details and a formal timeline yet to be officially announced, it has already sent ripples across global capital markets. Why does the concept of "national strategic reserves" have such a disruptive impact on the underlying valuation of Bitcoin? This marks that Bitcoin is undergoing an unprecedented "identity paradigm shift." Over the past decade, Bitcoin has evolved through various stages, from a geek experiment and dark web payment system, to retail speculation, and finally to institutional assets in Wall Street ETFs. But if the world's largest economy formally incorporates it into its sovereign balance sheet, Bitcoin's nature will be elevated to a "sovereign-level strategic reserve hard currency" on par with gold and crude oil. Once the United States takes a substantive step, it will trigger an irreversible "game theory domino effect" within the international financial system. Other sovereign states and central banks will inevitably be compelled to follow suit in allocating resources to avoid being at a disadvantage in the future global decentralized liquidity landscape. Whoever establishes reserves first will gain strategic control over this scarce asset at a lower cost. However, amidst the emotional fervor, # White House Summit: Trump Says He Discussed Buying BTC$BTC Behind the meme coin launcher hides 2 billion USD The ones who profit the most from launching meme coins are never the buyers, but those selling the shovels. Noah Tweedale, co-founder of Pump.fun, just said in an interview that the Pump Foundation has nearly 2 billion USD in treasury assets, most of which are held in stablecoins, with not a single SOL. This statement carries a lot of information. Think about it: this platform is the main gateway for this round of meme market, with thousands of new coins launched on it every day. Players chase pumps and dumps, participate in new launches and front-run, and every transaction fee ultimately flows into this treasury. 2 billion USD is a huge amount, higher than the total market cap of most altcoin projects, and it’s just the accumulated toll collected by a small platform. Another detail worth noting is that Tweedale said the foundation’s funds and the UK development company Baton Corporation are independent. Baton only handles Pump.fun’s development and operations, receiving a fixed annual fee of about 100 million USD. In other words, regardless of the platform’s market performance or players’ profits and losses, the development team takes a stable income of 100 million USD per year first, and the rest of the funds are held tightly by the foundation. Regarding the treasury holding only stablecoins and not touching SOL, this operation is quite intriguing. Meme players are gambling on the next 100x coin and risk going to zero if they lose; meanwhile, the platform converts every fee collected into stablecoins and locks them in, effectively isolating its income from coin price volatility. Players bear all the risks, while the platform profits rain or shine. This is not a launcher, it’s clearly a siphoning machine. Also, the 2 billion USD treasury figure has a bigger psychological impact on holders than expected. Many meme projects promote narratives of community governance and decentralization, but the model of a launch platform like Pump.fun is completely centralized. The money is in the foundation’s hands, and it sets the rules. Over the past six months, it has changed issuance fees and adjusted commission rates, and the community can only accept these changes after the fact. Looking at the whole meme ecosystem, this is actually a microcosm. Hot coins come and go, today’s leader might be zero tomorrow, but launch platforms, trading bots, and market makers are the real stable players who take most of the money. Retail investors gamble at the table, while the house collects the rake. This structure won’t change in the short term. And have you noticed? The co-founder specifically emphasized the separation between the treasury and the development company. This is a posture: the platform’s earnings and the developers’ are managed separately, with clear accounts. But the problem is, how the foundation’s money is spent, or whether it might suddenly buy coins launched on its own platform, the community has no control over. Holding 2 billion USD in the hands of a few means any move could be interpreted as negative news, which is a trust issue the meme ecosystem can’t avoid. So here’s the question: do you still plan to look for opportunities in meme coins? Knowing that every transaction fee is adding bricks to that 2 billion treasury, will you choose to keep pushing forward or change your approach? Share your strategies in the comments.On-chain RWA players surge by 80%, where did the money go? There was an unusually abnormal data point on-chain this week. The number of RWA asset holders skyrocketed by 79.74% in one month, reaching 2.3799 million, almost hitting 2.38 million. However, the total on-chain market cap is only $38.4 billion, up just 2.16% month-over-month. The number of people increased by nearly 80%, but the money barely moved. So what exactly are these new players buying? Or are they just warming up their pockets, waiting for some big move? The answer lies in a set of more detailed numbers. On the stablecoin side, the total market cap of $298.8 billion basically remained flat, but the monthly transfer volume rebounded to $5 trillion, up 4.84% month-over-month, finally halting the continuous decline. However, monthly active addresses actually dropped by 4.27%. Money is moving, but fewer people are active, indicating that funds have shifted from high-frequency rotation to cautious holding. Everyone is starting to hoard coins on-chain without moving them. On one hand, the total number of holders rose to 280 million, while on the other hand, activity declined. This divergence itself is a signal. Regulatory countdown is also underway, which is the real node that big money is waiting for. The U.S. Treasury Department has publicly solicited opinions on the GENIUS Act stablecoin rules, effective January 2027. By July 2028, stablecoins issued without a license will no longer be allowed to be sold to U.S. users. The Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15; both the White House and Trump are pushing it. The Coinbase CEO directly called for united efforts to get the bill passed. But there’s renewed debate on how to handle stablecoin rewards. The Senate Banking Committee chair said, "We thought it was resolved, but the issue has come back." This 600-plus-page bill is a sword hanging over the crypto market, and the verdict will come before the end of the month. More tangible than the bills is a major step of traditional finance moving on-chain. Franklin Templeton has obtained regulatory approval to put tokenized money market funds into traditional ETFs and mutual funds. This is the first time U.S. regulators have allowed digital-native products into mainstream fund systems. In plain terms, even if you don’t actively buy crypto assets, you might indirectly hold on-chain products through ordinary funds, effectively lowering the threshold. Nasdaq is even more direct, announcing a 23-hour trading system starting December 2026, clearly aiming to compete for liquidity with tokenized stocks. The two sides are set for a direct confrontation. Putting these events together, the logic is actually very clear. The 80% surge in RWA holders, the rebound in stablecoin transfers but decline in activity, are typical signs of building positions and accumulating strength. Incremental funds are entering the market but are still holding back, waiting for regulatory rules to be finalized. The GENIUS Act gives stablecoins a legal status, the CLARITY Act frames the entire crypto market, and giants like Franklin Templeton are putting on-chain assets into ordinary people's fund accounts. Every step is drawing off-chain funds onto the chain. For us traders, don’t expect these data to immediately drive prices up in the short term; they change the fundamentals in the medium to long term. But one thing is worth noting: when the September 15 vote lands, whether it passes or not, volatility will be significant. Are you holding stablecoins waiting for signals, or are you already fully invested at the peak? Share your position plans in the comments.Goldman Sachs, who verbally dissed Bitcoin, turned around and invested $2.2 billion Last January, Goldman Sachs' Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management, Mossavar-Rahmani, publicly criticized Bitcoin, saying it generates no cash flow, has no profits, cannot diversify risk, and at best is a speculative trading asset they do not recommend. Those words are still fresh, yet this year the investment bank spent $2.25 billion acquiring an institution that profits from Bitcoin volatility, managing 19 options-based ETFs with a total scale of $30 billion. They say they don't want it, but their actions say otherwise. The acquired company, NEOS, has a particularly interesting product called BTCI. It doesn't buy Bitcoin directly but diversifies funds into 11 spot ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, then sells call options against these holdings. In simple terms, the fund holds the coins and sells others the right to buy the coins at a set price in the future, collecting the option premiums upfront. If the coin price stays flat, they keep the premiums for free; if the price surges above the strike price, the coins are delivered, but the premiums are already pocketed. Thanks to Bitcoin's high volatility, BTCI currently pays a monthly dividend of $7.75 per share, equating to an annualized yield of 27%. Sounds great, right? But the catch is in the latter part. This fund's net asset value has dropped 25.4% this year, with a drawdown exceeding 40% over the past 12 months, and part of the dividends actually come from returning principal. In other words, you give up the biggest gains in a bull market in exchange for a fixed cash flow to weather the bear market. Goldman Sachs has this figured out clearly: they don't need to predict price direction, only that the market is active and volatility is high, so option premiums keep flowing. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. In April this year, Goldman Sachs also spent $2 billion acquiring Innovator, which makes buffered ETFs. Combined with this deal, their assets relying on selling volatility amount to $61 billion. The entire derivatives income ETF sector has reached $180 billion in total scale, growing over 70% annually. Fidelity, Grayscale, and BlackRock are also active, competing to add staking features to Ethereum ETFs, taking 15% to 25% of staking rewards as management fees. JPMorgan is even more direct, using Bitcoin and ETH as collateral to lend dollars, cutting discount rates to 30% to 50%, paired with automated risk controls so the bank bears no risk even if the market crashes, while still collecting interest. The most ironic contrast is with native crypto firms like Bitwise, whose managed assets shrank from $15 billion to $9 billion this year, leading to layoffs, because crypto firms rely on management fees, and when coin prices fall and funds shrink, revenue collapses. Wall Street giants hold trillions in other assets, offsetting losses here and there, still steadily collecting fees. Looking back at Goldman Sachs' 2020 client presentation, it clearly stated that Bitcoin's high volatility does not constitute a viable investment logic. Now, they are precisely profiting from that high volatility. From JPMorgan's CEO calling Bitcoin a pet rock to now using it as collateral, we've seen this pattern of big institutions verbally dissing but practically embracing it many times. Ultimately, Wall Street's business doesn't depend on rising coin prices; they bet on market trading activity, with retail investors bearing all directional risk while institutions take guaranteed returns through fees. Understanding this logic explains why big institutions keep buying even as they criticize. The question now is, is this dual-sided structure good or bad for ordinary players like us? Share your thoughts in the comments.Bitcoin surged 20% in five days, shorts liquidated for $700 million The market at 5 PM today will likely be recorded in many traders' diaries. Bitcoin started around 74,000 in the morning, broke through 78,000 and 79,000, and is now at 79,200 USD, up over 10% in 24 hours and more than 20% in five days. Some in social circles are calling for a bull return, while others stare blankly at their floating losses on short positions. The same candlestick, two different lives. Let's look at the data first. According to Coinglass, $758 million was liquidated across the network in the past 12 hours, with $701 million from shorts and only $57 million from longs. Over 90% of liquidations were shorts, a typical one-sided short squeeze. Those who kept adding shorts above 70,000 were basically wiped out this afternoon. If you are still holding short positions, your position is riskier than you think at this level. More intriguing are the signals from the options market. Today, 24,000 BTC options and 149,000 ETH options expire, with a nominal value totaling $2.18 billion. The maximum pain point for BTC options is only 67,000 USD, and for ETH options 2,000 USD, but current prices are already above 79,000 and 2,400 respectively. The settlement prices far exceed the maximum pain points, a rare scenario this year, meaning bulls completely crushed bears on settlement day. Analysts at Greeks.live put it bluntly: the monthly realized volatility jumped 20 points in one day to 53%, implied volatility rose only 6%, and the put-side Gex is almost negligible. The market is fully bullish. In plain terms, the market is rising much faster than options pricing expected, disrupting the hedging strategies of option sellers, and short-term volatility may continue to increase. For swing traders, chasing highs at times like this is the biggest taboo. After a 23% rise in five days, the short-term deviation is already large. Above 79,000 is a previous dense resistance zone, and every bullish candle faces dual selling pressure from profit-taking and stop-loss recoveries. Instead of chasing now, it's better to wait for a pullback confirmation and see if 75,000 to 76,000 can form a new support platform. Of course, if you hold low-entry longs, holding is more important than frequent trading; don't scare yourself before the trend breaks. Looking at the bigger picture, this rally is actually more solid than previous ones. ETFs have had four consecutive days of net inflows, institutions continue to buy with real money above 70,000, and pre-market US crypto concept stocks are all strong, with MSTR up over 11%. Capital, news, and sentiment are rarely so aligned. But don't forget, the characteristic of a short squeeze is that it comes fast and goes fast. Once shorts are fully liquidated, the fuel is burned out. Whether the rally can continue depends on whether spot buying can keep up, not just contract position sentiment. Today Bitcoin broke 79,000. Are you holding longs or shorts? Did you profit from this wave or are you still waiting to break even? Let's discuss in the comments and see who is really making money this round.A few days ago, the whale who was showing off profits from long positions is now facing a floating loss of ten million on short positions. At 4:58 PM today, on-chain monitoring revealed a figure: the whale with the ID "Set 10 Big Goals First" holds $218 million in short positions, with a floating loss of about $10.08 million. Breaking it down for clarity: He holds 2,499.968 BTC in 5x short positions, with an average entry price of $74,746, a position value of about $183 million, and a floating loss of $8.73 million. Additionally, he has 15,000 ETH in 7x short positions, entry price $2,347.89, position value over $35 million, with a floating loss of about $1.35 million. Together, these two positions total just over ten million in losses. The issue is, this same ID did something else just two days ago. At that time, he posted a screenshot showing 5x long positions on 3,425 BTC with a floating profit of $13 million. The same person, same leverage, flipped direction in less than 48 hours, turning a $13 million profit into a $10 million loss on paper. The market gave him no breathing room. Bitcoin surged steadily this afternoon, breaking $78,000 at 4:48 PM and touching $79,200 at 4:59 PM, with a 24-hour increase of 10.61%. Ethereum simultaneously rose above $2,400, and BNB passed $680. On the US stock side, crypto-related stocks were even more active pre-market: MSTR up over 11%, COIN up 6.75%, CRCL up 6.42%. There was also an uncommon detail today. BTC and ETH options with a notional value of $2.18 billion expired and settled today. The biggest pain points were $67,000 for Bitcoin and $2,000 for Ethereum. An options analyst noted this was one of the rare days this year where the settlement price was significantly above the biggest pain points. Monthly realized volatility jumped 20% to 53%, while implied volatility only rose 6%. In plain terms, the market moved much faster than anticipated, making downside hedges almost negligible. So, what’s intriguing now isn’t how much he lost, but why he flipped from long to short at that level. Did he think the rally was too fast and needed a correction, or does he have other hedge positions we can’t see? When he posted the screenshot last time, many followed and trusted that direction. This time, he hasn’t said a word. Do you think such a high-profile whale showing off positions is still worth watching?
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