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The second channel is more mechanical. Three-month futures basis, the yield on the cash-and-carry trade that anchors institutional participation in crypto, has been paying less than a 2-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long, from August 2022 into January 2023, and it ended at the cycle low. When Treasuries out-yield the basis, the desks that supply leverage, depth and volume to this market have little reason to be here. Much of what follows in the off-