#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布 sätts Walshs politiska hållning på prov Efter Washs tal, hur kommer marknaden att röra sig? Vilka möjligheter har vi? Så snart Washs ord kom ut krossade han många människors förväntningar på sänkningar. Alla dessa drömmar om sänkningar från Powell-eran, för att uttrycka det rakt på sak, har alla blivit flyktiga moln. Den här killen talade tufft och sa i princip att inflationen inte faller tillräckligt snabbt och att Fed kan höja räntorna när som helst. Marknaden är verklig—sannolikheten för en räntehöjning i september har halverats kraftigt, och sentimentet har skiftat till åtstramning av likviditeten. Faktum är att om du noga observerar den amerikanska aktiemarknaden kommer du att se att krisen redan är skriven i bakgrunden. S&P 500 nådde precis en rekordhöjd, men köpandet blir alltmer koncentrerat, med skillnaden mellan pris och marknadsbredd som slår rekord på nästan trettio år. Det roligaste är de som följer trenden och hypen kring AI. Tidigare kunde till och med grisar flyga till skyarna, men nu när cooldownen har svalnat lite har många tagit en spännande berg-och-dalbana på hårdvaruaktier—de orealiserade vinsterna på pappret hann inte casha ut och kastades genast tillbaka igen. Alla frågar sig, om den ensidiga änden är över, vad kommer de då att förlita sig på för att tjäna pengar framöver? Tänk på det: det största tabuet i denna typ av högnivå-oscillation är att kasta alla sina marker åt ett håll. Nyligen pratade jag med flera handlare, och de tog faktiskt upp Browns föråldrade "perpetual portfolio" igen. Denna logik är extremt enkel: aktier, långfristiga obligationer, Bitcoin och kontanter håller varje kvartal, sedan reglerar de kontona och ombalanserar. Den mest extrema delen av denna mekanism är att den använder ett system för att tvinga dig att sälja högt och köpa lågt: när tillgångarna går i oordning, sälj lite; när de faller kraftigt köper du längst ner.

#LaborMarketTestsWalsh This week’s labor data may tell us whether Walsh’s inflation-first stance has enough room to hold 👀 JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims and August payrolls are all coming, after July payrolls fell by 23K and May–June figures were revised down by another 103K. That already points to a softer hiring picture. At Jackson Hole, Walsh emphasized that inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions aren’t restrictive and price stability should stay the priority. Markets reacted quickly, with September hike odds briefly moving from around 35% to nearly 60% 📊 What I find interesting is the tension between those two stories. The Fed may want to keep pressure on inflation, but continued labor weakness would make additional tightening harder to explain. One weak report probably won’t settle the debate. But if several labor indicators soften together, the question may shift from whether policy is restrictive enough to whether it is starting to become too restrictive.

This non-farm payroll report is extremely critical. Before Friday's data release, the market will most likely continue to trade sideways. The reason non-farm payroll data can stir global markets lies in a clear transmission chain: employment data → Federal Reserve policy expectations → US dollar liquidity → risk asset prices. Simply put, it directly determines whether the Fed will "hit the brakes" or "step on the gas." #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K. Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar. The U.S. jobs report. My radar: 🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance 🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength 🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity 🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0 That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets. A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations. Lower rate expectations could support liquidity. And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K. But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect. Higher rate expectations. Higher yields. More pressure on risk assets. That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart. Technically, the structure is still clear. Buyers defended the $77K area. But sellers continue to appear around $80K. Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1 There is also an interesting institutional signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28. Yet price still failed to break $80K. That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure. This is where $ETH becomes interesting. Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🚨 The biggest market shock of the week hasn’t even happened yet… 😅 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims… and then Friday brings the big one: Nonfarm Payrolls. 📊 The market is basically getting hit with one employment report after another, so honestly, I wouldn’t expect much calm this week. Walsh has already made it clear that inflation remains a priority. If the labor market stays strong, the hawks have more reason to remain tough. #DailyOrbit

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults