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ChainRider
đš BTC & ETH traders, tonightâs CPI could change everything.
The jobs data gave the market a reason to breathe.
But CPI could decide what happens next. đ
Last week, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K, while May and June were revised down by another 103K combined.
That should normally push the market toward lower rate-hike expectations.
But it hasnât.
Rate expectations have moved back toward a near 50/50 split, which tells us something important:
The market still doesnât fully trust the weakness in employment.
Jobs data may have opened the door to a pause.
But inflation is still holding the key. đ
Thatâs why tonightâs CPI matters so much.
đ Market expectations:
âą Headline CPI MoM: 0.1%
âą Core CPI MoM: 0.2%
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, weak jobs + cooling inflation could reinforce the case for lower rate expectations.
That could be a strong tailwind for BTC and ETH. đ
But if core CPI comes in hot?
The market could quickly price in a more hawkish Fed againâand crypto could face another round of repricing. đ
And hereâs the part Iâm watching most closely:
Donât get distracted by headline CPI.
đ The core monthly number could be the real market mover tonight.
With rate expectations already close to a coin flip, expect volatility.
We could see a violent move in both directions firstâleveraged positions getting wiped outâbefore the market finally chooses a direction. â ïž
The real question tonight isnât simply:
âIs CPI good or bad?â
Itâs this:
Can cooling employment finally drag rate expectations lower, or will stubborn inflation keep the Fed hawkish?
Buckle up. BTC and ETH could get their answer tonight. đ
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#CPI #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Fed #DailyOrbit
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