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This is a good scenario-based setup. One important correction: PPI itself doesn't directly determine whether the Fed hikes; it influences inflation expectations and the broader data picture the Fed considers. For the trading message, the strongest point is your final one: watch the market reaction, not just the headline number. A soft PPI can still produce a sell-the-news move if yields or DXY rise, while a hot PPI can sometimes be absorbed if positioning is already heavily bearish. Bottom line: PPI below expectations = potentially bullish for ETH; above expectations = potentially bearish; around expectations = likely more dependent on the details and market positioning.