#LastNFPBeforeFOMC

Bitcoin Is Holding $77K. But the Fed Trade Is Starting to Change. $BTC is still trading around $77K, but the bigger market story is moving away from Bitcoin itself. U.S. private-sector job growth came in weaker than expected, Treasury yields eased, and the dollar softened. At the same time, markets are still pricing a meaningful chance of a September Fed hike. That creates a strange setup. Bad economic data is usually negative for growth. For crypto, it can become bullish if it makes the Fed less aggressive. The problem is inflation. Oil remains above $90, which keeps the inflation side of the equation alive. That means weaker employment does not automatically translate into easier monetary policy. My radar is watching the gap between growth and inflation expectations. If labor data continues weakening while inflation pressure cools, yields could fall further and liquidity expectations could improve. That would give $BTC a much stronger environment to reclaim higher levels. But if jobs weaken while oil keeps inflation elevated, the Fed could remain restrictive. That is where the market can get trapped. The second signal is how crypto responds before the Fed even makes a decision. $ETH remains important because its ETF demand has recently stayed strong. $SOL and $XRP can show whether institutional interest is broadening beyond Bitcoin. I am also watching $BNB, $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR for signs that traders are willing to increase risk outside the majors. If that happens, $SEI could provide another read on Layer 1 appetite. DeFi would be even more interesting. $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE can tell us whether improving liquidity is reaching on-chain financial activity rather than stopping at large-cap assets. For infrastructure, $LINK and $ONDO remain on my radar as tokenization and institutional blockchain adoption continue developing. The bigger thesis is simple: The next Bitcoin move may be determined by the Fed reaction function, not by Bitcoin itself. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes

Currently, the entire market's attention is focused on this Friday's non-farm payroll report, which is the most important employment reference before the FOMC interest rate meeting. It will directly rewrite the Federal Reserve's rate expectations, and the crypto market is bound to experience significant volatility. At present, BTC is hovering in the 76000‑81000 range, with 77000 as the short-term lifeline; only by holding above this #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow

#LastNFPBeforeFOMC August payrolls feel like the final piece the Fed has been waiting for before September 👀 ADP private payrolls rose by just 38K, below the 47K forecast and the weakest result since January. The Beige Book added to the softer picture: 10 of 12 districts reported only modest growth, while hiring slowed. What I find interesting is that markets still price a 25bp hike at roughly 62.3%. The labor data is cooling, but inflation remains difficult to dismiss. Core PCE held at 3.3%, and 54% of tracked PCE components reportedly rose more than 3% YoY—up from 47% a year ago 📊 That explains why Williams could describe inflation as encouraging while still taking a wait-and-see approach. Tomorrow’s payroll report probably won’t settle every argument, but it should show which risk currently worries the Fed more: persistent inflation or a labor market losing momentum.

📊 BTC & FED WATCH 👀 The market is getting nervous about a possible September Fed rate hike, especially as oil prices rise and Treasury yields remain elevated. But here’s the key: expectations are not the same as reality. 🔥 The upcoming U.S. jobs and CPI data could still change the Fed’s decision. Stay patient. Watch the data, not the noise. 🧠₿ #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoNews #Fed #InterestRates #BitcoinNews #CryptoMarket #Trading #Web3 #DeFi #DYOR

The probability of a rate hike in September continues to rise After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%-66%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike has reached 66.1%. The non-farm payroll data this Friday (September 4) will be a key catalyst—if employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed, and the market may take another hit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood

August payrolls missed hard (38K), and hike odds went from 68-72% down to ~45% almost overnight. The NFP test I flagged actually broke the hawkish narrative, at least for now. Official BLS NFP still due Sept 4 that's the next real trigger. This is exactly why I don't call things settled before the data shows up.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

NFP: THE NEXT CRYPTO TEST Markets now price around a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed hike in September. The September 4 NFP is the key test, with weak labor data potentially challenging the hawkish outlook. Strong NFP → higher hike odds → pressure on $BTC, $ETH and $SOL. Weak NFP → lower hike expectations → potential crypto relief. Meanwhile, spot ETF flows remain crucial for $BTC as macro pressure and rising yields weigh on risk assets. NFP + Fed + ETF flows could shape September’s crypto direction.

BTC has slipped below the $77,000 level. US equity futures are also trading lower, while the DXY is moving higher, adding pressure to risk assets. Pre-market snapshot: ▫️ Nasdaq futures: -0.03% ▫️ S&P 500 futures: -0.29% Risk sentiment remains cautious heading into the US session. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds US economic data is sending mixed signals ahead of Friday’s August payroll report. Manufacturing remained in expansion territory, but the ISM index declined from 55.6 to 54.6. July JOLTS job openings reached 7.27 million, missing the 7.31 million consensus while improving from June’s revised figure. These numbers suggest the economy is slowing at the margin without showing a clear collapse in labor demand. Markets are currently assigning roughly a two-thirds probability to a 25-basis-point September rate hike. Friday’s payroll growth, unemployment rate, wages and revisions could therefore trigger meaningful moves in Treasury yields, the dollar, equities and Bitcoin. A strong report would reinforce the case for tighter policy, while a weak report could reduce hike expectations. My view is that wage growth and prior-month revisions may matter as much as the headline payroll number. Traders should also expect the initial market reaction to reverse if the details contradict the headline.

🚨 The US data is cooling… so why is Bitcoin getting MORE nervous about rate hikes? This is where the market gets tricky. August ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.6 — below expectations, but still above 50, meaning the sector is expanding. JOLTS job openings fell to around 7.27M, while construction spending also came in weak. Normally, weaker economic data = more hopes for Fed easing = good news for BTC. #DailyOrbit