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BullRiderPK
SanDisk, forgive me this time. 😅
This trade genuinely taught me a lesson about respecting a major fundamental revaluation.
The underlying stock hasn’t even opened yet, but the $SNDK exchange-traded contract has already surged toward $1,740, pushing my short entry around $1,615 significantly underwater.
The RSI is already flashing extremely overheated conditions, yet the price still shows little sign of slowing down.
My original thesis was straightforward: NAND is a cyclical industry. Prices can’t rise forever, and an aggressive rally should eventually face a correction.
But the market has clearly changed the way it is pricing SanDisk.
The FY2028–FY2030 outlook points to mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, roughly 80% adjusted gross margin and around 75% operating margin. On top of that, the company has secured 8 customers through long-term agreements, with the longest running five years and a combined value of roughly $9.39B.
So the market isn’t simply pricing in higher NAND prices anymore.
It’s pricing in future revenue and profitability becoming more predictable and locked in.
That’s the painful part.
The underlying stock had no fresh price discovery over the weekend, yet the exchange-traded contract was already pricing in this new sense of long-term certainty.
Whether this move is an early run-up or simply liquidity-driven excitement will only become clearer once the U.S. market opens.
This trade taught me something important:
A high valuation can be a reason to stay bearish—but when the market starts repricing the entire business model, “expensive” can become even more expensive.
For now, I’m done fighting the trend.
I just want to see whether Wall Street agrees with this long-term story once the market opens. 👀
Will the stock catch up with the pre-market move—or will the good news finally be priced in?
$SNDK
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp
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