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For most of this year, government bonds quietly out-earned $BTC 's own futures market — a 157-day stretch where two-year Treasuries paid more than Bitcoin's carry trade, something that's only happened once before in history. That flipped on August 7. Bitcoin futures carry jumped back above Treasury yields, and the timing lined up with $853.5 million flowing into spot ETFs the same week — arbitrage desks suddenly had a reason to show up again. Worth watching whether that reversal holds. Months of a thin carry spread meant less leveraged depth sitting under the market, and depth doesn't rebuild overnight just because one week looked better. #WeakConsumptionFedSplit #SP500EarningsGap #BTCETFsVsLeverage Not financial advice. $BTC