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BTC holding near $63,064 while ETH and SOL barely outpace it suggests this is stability, not broad risk appetite. My read is that spot demand is absorbing pressure, but leverage has not earned the right to call this a durable breakout. The more important asymmetry sits outside crypto. Hormuz risk looks underpriced, and an energy shock would tighten financial conditions just as the Fed is split and consumption is weakening. I would treat the current calm as fragile until crypto can advance without leaning on leverage. Not advice, just analysis.