#WallerEyesAugCPI
About WallerEyesAugCPI
Fed Governor Waller said Sep 3 he favors holding if August inflation maintains progress, but could support a September hike on strong data. He said next week's CPI and PPI will drive the decision, with jobs satisfactory. Claims were 206K vs 205K expected, within 200K-240K all year. CME 25bp-hike odds fell to 50.2% from above 70%; Treasury yields dropped 3-5bp and the dollar weakened vs G10. August payrolls due tonight are seen at 56K, with 4.1% unemployment, ahead of the Sep 15-16 FOMC.
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Nonfarm payrolls to be announced tonight, with new jobs possibly only 56,000. How will the market react?
Author: Xiao Yanyan, JIN10 Data
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report on Friday. According to market consensus expectations, nonfarm payrolls in August are expected to increase by only 56,000, but this increase is still expected to be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
If this expectation is met, August will continue the weak trend seen in previous months. Nonfarm payrolls in June and July combined saw a net decrease of 3,000 jobs, and fo
The probability of a rate hike in September continues to rise
After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%-66%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike has reached 66.1%. The non-farm payroll data this Friday (September 4) will be a key catalyst—if employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed, and the market may take another hit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood
🚨 REKTEMBER IS OFFICIALLY HERE?
$BTC opened September by slipping below the $78K level.
Meanwhile, Warsh is openly pushing the possibility of a September rate hike — and this time, there’s no obvious political pushback from Trump.
That’s what makes the setup different.
Previous rate scares had some form of political counterweight.
This time, the market may have to face the pressure on its own.
September just got a lot more interesting. 📉
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
REKTEMBER IS HERE:
$BTC Bitcoin lost $78,000 to open September.
Warsh is publicly signaling a September hike. Trump is not stepping in to stop him.
Every previous rate scare had a political counter. This one does not.
Rektember arrived without the safety net.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto
BREAKING: Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects US rates to hold steady and begin falling within 6 months.
$BTC
Big Fed news this morning: Fed Governor Chris Waller -- a key swing voter -- says he's "inclined" to hold interest rates steady in September.
It will all come down to the August inflation data, he says.
If August inflation data is mild, no hike.
If August inflation data is hot, likely a September hike
Full speech here:
FED’S WALLER: INCLINED TO SUPPORT HOLDING POLICY RATE STEADY AT FED'S SEPTEMBER 15-16 MEETING IF AUGUST INFLATION DATA SHOWS CONTINUED PROGRESS || IF AUGUST INFLATION DATA COMES IN HOT, HE WOULD CONSIDER A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE || HIS COMMUNICATING OF REACTION FUNCTION HELPS PUBLIC IN PLANNING || 'FINALLY SEEING SOME SIGNS OF DISINFLATION' IN RECENT DATA ...