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$SK Hynix$ SanDisk The reason for the sharp drop has been found
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
Changxin's listing has completely broken the thirty-year oligopoly tacit understanding in global storage!
To be honest, after watching Changxin's listing, I instantly understood that the underlying logic of the storage chip industry has changed.
For the past thirty years, the global DRAM market has been dominated by three giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. They had an unspoken profitable playbook and never engaged in chaotic competition. When the industry was booming, they expanded production together; when the market was sluggish, they collectively cut production. Whenever prices dropped, if any one of them announced spending cuts, the market would immediately stabilize, relying on this oligopoly tacit understanding to steadily earn profits.
But now, everything has changed.
Changxin successfully listed with a strong cash flow of 58 billion, completely breaking the monopoly of the three giants. Many only see the rise of domestic DRAM, but the real core variable is that the tacit understanding of production cuts to maintain prices has completely failed.
Previously, the three giants cut production because no one was fighting for market share; they banded together to stabilize profits. But Changxin is different. Backed by the Hefei government, its goal is to seize market share and it does not care about short-term profit margins, absolutely refusing to cooperate with foreign capital in cutting production.
In the upcoming industry downturn cycle, while foreign capital cuts production to maintain prices, Changxin will only expand production against the trend. This means that DRAM prices will fall even more sharply, and the industry cycle will be significantly prolonged.
Adding another key positive variable, the AI boom has completely absorbed HBM capacity. The three giants have shifted their premium production lines to high-end HBM, leaving ordinary DRAM capacity vacant. Changxin precisely targets this gap, quietly capturing the blank share of standard DRAM without directly competing in the high-end market—a very smart strategy.
This is great news for downstream manufacturers, who no longer have to suffer price hikes from foreign capital monopolies. But for established storage companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, their gross margins will inevitably be diluted.
In short, Changxin's listing is not just a breakthrough for domestic chips, but a complete shattering of the storage industry's thirty-year unchanged oligopoly game rules. Progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, with US forces pausing attacks on Iran, and Brent crude oil immediately fell by 90.43 per barrel. The risk premiums accumulated earlier due to geopolitical conflicts are rapidly being squeezed out, with funds rotating from risk assets to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. The fading of geopolitical premiums means that the "war narrative" that previously supported price increases is beginning to unravel.
(2) Rising Interest Rate Hike Expectations (Macroeconomic Perspective)
CME data shows the market sees a 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July, and the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 55.7%. Although inflation fell to 3.5% in June, the Middle East situation pushing up oil prices has made the policy path more complicated. The rise in Treasury yields further suppresses the valuation potential of crypto assets.
Combined with over 150,000 liquidations within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of about $591 million, the forced liquidations by bulls further intensified the decline. $ETH$BTC$SOL# Changxin Technology goes public, adding to global storage competitionTrump is negotiating while shouting for rate cuts! $CL Falling to 81, do you understand this game?
Brothers, the real purpose of suppressing oil prices is to pave the way for rate cuts.
This morning, two pieces of news came out in succession: first, they mentioned "good negotiations" with Iran; He immediately called out for Wash's demand for the "world's lowest interest rate." This is no coincidence; it's a combination of strategies. When oil prices fall, inflation data looks better, giving the Fed a reason to cut rates. The ceasefire negotiations are a fake; clearing obstacles for rate cuts is real.
Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, CL has already broken below all moving averages, currently trading at 81.42, close to the lower Bollinger band at 81. From the 1994 price drop to now, the 13U is almost gone.
Resistance levels: 82.8-83.5, moving average concentration zone.
Support levels: 81-80.5, lower Bollinger bands and integer levels.
Gongming's view: Oversold in the short term, RSI has reached 21.6, could bounce at any time. But as long as Trump continues to pressure for rate cuts, the medium-term pressure on oil prices will remain unchanged.
Trading strategy:
For short positions: Enter short positions when the rebound between 83-84 rebounds, aggressively chase short near the current price of 81.
Remember, follow political logic and don't compete with technical indicators. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day 7.28 Crude Oil Morning Silk Road:
The sharp drop in oil prices is driven by a temporary easing in the Middle East geography, with the U.S. announcing a pause in a new round of military strikes against Iran, and both sides entering a window of diplomatic negotiations. This led to the earlier influx of speculative long positions driven by concerns over channel blockades to concentrate and take profits, causing the geopolitical risk premium to quickly fade. In addition, bottlenecks in crude oil transportation in the Black Sea region have also eased, with Caspian Pipeline Alliance terminals resuming loading operations, further easing expectations of global crude oil supply tightness. Currently, both sides have only agreed to a temporary ceasefire and have not signed a formal agreement. Shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz and risks along the Red Sea route still exist, and the future remains highly uncertain.
From the market trend, WTI crude oil had previously surged rapidly due to geopolitical risks, but this sharp pullback has pushed it back near its medium-term moving average, with the short-term trend clearly weakening. Prices have quickly broken below the previously formed upward channel, and the market is digesting the risk premiums accumulated over the past week. Currently, the daily stochastic strength index remains in a relatively high range, but this mainly reflects the technical lag after the previous rally. On the 4-hour cycle, short-term momentum indicators have clearly cooled, indicating the market is waiting for new fundamental catalysts to confirm the next direction. If geopolitical tensions worsen again, oil prices may quickly recover some of the losses; If expectations for supply recovery strengthen further, the support levels below will be tested.
Recommendations:
Entry: 82.2-83 near Kong
Played around 80-77
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day The US-Iran situation is cooling down, but BTC hasn't really risen.
Oil prices have fallen, and the war risk has temporarily eased, but Bitcoin is still hovering around $65,000.
To be honest, this reaction is a bit disappointing to me.
Logically, with the US and Iran pausing hostilities, oil prices dropping significantly, and inflation pressure easing, risk assets like stocks and crypto should feel a bit better. BTC did rebound, but the strength was mediocre, and the market is clearly still waiting for the Fed's statement. (Investing.com)
What's more notable is that recently, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen capital outflows again. In other words, external negative factors have temporarily eased, but big money hasn't really come back to buy aggressively. (The Economic Times)
So my current judgment is straightforward:
BTC isn't unable to rise; it's that no one dares to bet early.
If the Fed signals dovishness, $65,000 might just be the starting point; if it continues to emphasize inflation risks, this small rebound is likely to be crushed again.
I won't chase or clear my positions these days; I'll just wait for the market to choose its direction.
Only two options:
A: Breakout and rise after the Fed
B: Positive news priced in, continue to fall $BTC #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Honestly, this week is crucial.
The direction for the entire second half of the year basically depends on these two days.
Yesterday, Changxin Technology went public, and those who got the allotment made a big profit. If you missed the boat, don’t chase the high; just watch and wait.
But Changxin’s impact is really huge, comparable to a live-streaming sales host, directly pushing down the prices of storage leaders like SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk. Brothers, did you get on the little yellow bike? From now on, change your mindset and treat US stocks like knockoffs.
The real highlight is all packed on Thursday. At 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced, and at 2:30 a.m., Chairman Powell will speak. The interest rate will most likely stay unchanged; the key is whether he sounds "dovish" or "hawkish"—as long as he hints at a rate cut, August will be easier;
If they continue to tough it out with rate hikes, everyone will know what to expect. Then at 8:30 p.m. Thursday, the US PCE inflation data will be released, mixing with the rate decision news, so the market will definitely be volatile.
Also on Wednesday and Thursday, tech giants like Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft will release earnings reports. These results are the touchstone for the AI market; if most exceed expectations, the tech bull run can continue; if not, the AI sector will suffer for a while.
Externally, the US-Iran ceasefire talks caused crude oil $CL and $BZ to drop a bit, which is a small positive for stocks and crypto, but geopolitical news can change anytime, so just be aware.
Let’s talk specifics. Gold has been testing patience lately, but the correction is nearing its end. Next, it will either rebound with volatility or dip first before rising. Opportunities are slowly approaching.
In the crypto world, looking at $BTC and $ETH’s performance in late July, they are still recovering, but whether this continues into August depends on this week’s results. The overall bear market isn’t over, but there should be a phase of rally in August. MEME coins like $DOGE and $SHIBI have already had a small surge. Also, keep an eye on that US crypto bill; once it passes, it will be big news.
In short, this week will be very volatile, so manage your positions carefully and don’t go all in at once. We’ll see the outcome on Thursday. Let’s take it step by step; as long as the green hills remain, there’s no fear of running out of firewood.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ 🚨 The DRAM game just changed. For decades, the memory market was controlled by three giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Their playbook was simple: 📈 When demand surged, everyone expanded capacity. 📉 When demand weakened, everyone cut production. If prices fell too far, one of them would announce lower capital spending, supply would tighten, and the market would stabilize. This unwritten rule has worked for over 30 years. Now there's a fourth player. China's CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technolog$MU Yesterday, US stocks showed mixed performance, with the Dow rising and the Nasdaq closing slightly lower. Memory chips plunged across the board, with SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Nvidia leading the declines. Funds worried about a downward storage cycle combined with the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision to avoid risks; $SNDK $SKHYNIX Stable tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft bucked the trend and strengthened. The market is highly cautious, and short-term trends are entirely determined by the outcome of this interest rate decision. 🥞 Overall closing performance of the main index: extreme divergence among the three major indices, traditional blue chips strengthening, while technology growth collectively comes under pressure: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.51%; The S&P 500 edged up 0.02%; The Nasdaq index fell 0.18%. The market showed a typical high-low switching rally: funds fleeing from high-end AI chip and storage cycle stocks, flowing into defensive blue chips and leading software internet stocks for safe havens. 🍳 Sector and Popular Stock Trends 1. Memory and semiconductor sectors collapsed across the board (the biggest drag of the day). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.23%, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 5%. SanDisk plunged 11.02%, leading the decline in the sector; SK Hynix plunged 7.47%, falling below its IPO price shortly after listing; Micron Technology closed down 2.25%; Nvidia plunged nearly 5%, AMD dropped over 5%, and ASML fell close to 6%. $NVDA $SAMSUNG Core Drivers of Decline: Market concerns over declining returns on capital expenditure for AI computing power, combined with Changxin Technology's IPO breaking the overseas storage oligopoly pattern, leading funds to price in storage overcapacity and expectations of a downturn in the cycle; Moreover, the Federal Reserve is discussing interest ratesWhen talking about AI, people usually first look at NVIDIA.
Next in line are GPU, optical modules, liquid cooling, power, and data centers.
Memory is often placed later.
But a server with only computing power and insufficient memory is like a person whose brain works fast but only has one sheet of paper on the desk.
Model parameters, cached data, and computation results all need to move continuously between the processor and memory.
The larger the model, the higher the requirements for memory capacity and speed.
This is also why, in the later stages of the AI market, capital starts to shift from purely chasing computing chips to gradually spreading into storage, networking, and power supply.
ChangXin Technology happens to be positioned here.
The company's main products include the DDR series for computers and servers, as well as the LPDDR series for mobile devices like phones.
Their products already cover mainstream directions such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, and LPDDR5/5X.
However, ordinary DRAM and HBM cannot be completely equated.
HBM is high-bandwidth memory, mainly serving high-end AI accelerators, with higher technical, packaging, and customer certification thresholds.
ChangXin Technology's most solid foundation currently remains traditional DDR and LPDDR products.
Therefore, looking at ChangXin cannot be limited to just shouting "AI chip."
A more realistic question is whether it can first expand its share in server DDR5, mobile memory, and domestic terminal markets, then gradually move toward a higher-end product structure.
AI has brought a very good industry window for ChangXin Technology.
After international manufacturers invest more resources in high-value products, some traditional DRAM markets may see new supply opportunities.
Domestic server, phone, and computer manufacturers also hope for a more stable supply chain.
These opportunities truly exist.
But AI can only open the door.
How far ChangXin can ultimately go still depends on product performance, cost, yield, and delivery capability.
The chip industry does not have market share that can be maintained by sentiment alone.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $ETH On its first day of listing, Changxin Technology's total market value once exceeded ¥3 trillion.
Many people, upon seeing this number, didn't feel excitement but rather confusion.
Why can a company that will only become profitable in 2025 receive such a high valuation?
The answer is simple.
The market is not buying how much Changxin Technology can earn today, but what position it might occupy in the future.
Memory chips are a very special industry.
The products appear highly standardized; manufacturers all sell DDR, LPDDR, but there are very few companies worldwide that can stably mass-produce, control costs, and continuously upgrade processes.
Changxin Technology has become China's leading DRAM manufacturer by scale and has entered the ranks of the world's major DRAM suppliers.
This scarcity is almost unmatched by any other asset in the A-share market.
On the other hand, AI is raising market expectations for memory again.
Training models require graphics cards, and running models also needs massive data reading, caching, and transmission.
The greater the computing power, the higher the demands for memory capacity, speed, and bandwidth.
Therefore, the market is willing to see Changxin Technology as part of AI infrastructure, not just a traditional cyclical chip company.
However, scarcity does not mean any price is reasonable.
Changxin Technology's closing price on the first day was ¥49, more than four times the issue price of ¥8.66, with a total market value of about ¥3.28 trillion.
This pricing already includes a large amount of future expectations.
Its implicit assumptions include: continued market share growth, smooth product upgrades, sustained capacity expansion, memory prices remaining high, and AI demand not cooling significantly.
If any of these fall short of expectations, the valuation may be recalculated.
Changxin Technology is certainly a scarce company.
But a scarce company and a scarce price are not the same thing.
On the first day of listing, the market is buying a dream.
A year after listing, everyone will be looking at the financial statements.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $BTC On July 27, Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market.
The issue price was ¥8.66, and it closed at ¥49 on the first day of listing, an increase of 465.82%, with a total market value of about ¥3.28 trillion.
A company making memory chips stood at the forefront of A-share market value on its first day of listing. Such a scene was almost unimaginable a few years ago.
But what truly matters about Changxin Technology’s listing is not how much it rose on the first day.
Its greatest significance is that China’s capital market finally has a truly original DRAM manufacturer.
DRAM is not an ordinary chip.
Mobile phones running software, computers opening programs, and servers processing data all rely on it. Without memory, even the strongest processor can only wait.
This industry has long been dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
China has a huge market for mobile phones, computers, servers, and cloud computing but has long lacked its own large-scale DRAM suppliers.
The emergence of Changxin Technology fills exactly this gap.
Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Hefei, the company’s business covers DRAM design, research and development, production, and sales. It has already launched products such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X.
From an industry perspective, Changxin’s listing is equivalent to bringing a continuously expanding chip factory to the capital market.
In the future, the market will not only watch its story but also focus on its yield, capacity, price, R&D, and profits.
This is both a highlight and a pressure.
Changxin Technology has completed the transition from a "domestic substitution concept" to a "publicly listed company."
The real test ahead is whether it can still stand firm during the next downturn in the storage industry.
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
$BTC I used AI to build a fully automated trading robot, and I've been running live trading for a week now
First, the results: principal 1,900U, net profit of +1,028U (+54%) in 7 days, with zero human intervention throughout.
I'm not a programmer
I can't write quantitative strategies, nor do I understand machine learning. But I have an AI assistant—I repeatedly discuss trading logic with it, it helps me write code, backtest, and deploy to the live market.
The whole process feels like working alongside a 24-hour online quantitative researcher + full-stack engineer.
How did the strategy come about?
It's not about having AI "give me a money-making strategy"—that's the dumbest use.
I first share my trading observations with it, the AI turns this thought into code, and then runs it for backtesting. After the run, tell me: 80% win rate, 2.47 win-loss ratio, 7.5 weeks +22x.
Of course, I didn't believe it. So the next day, we started the live testing.
Total net profit: +1,028U, win rate 80%, exactly matching backtesting.
Signal never misses: a candlestick every 5 minutes, dozens of candlesticks in a single night, and it scans without missing a single second.
Risk control with zero emotion: stop losses without moving. If I see a floating loss of 500U, my hand shakes and I want to take on the trade—the machine doesn't know how, so I cut when necessary.
Drawdown protection is a stroke of genius: this is the mechanism I discussed with AI.
Sandwich protection: OCO hard stop-loss (bottom line) + break-even stop loss after adding positions (no losses) + drawdown protection (locking profits), all three effective simultaneously. Even if the internet goes offline in the middle of the night, process guardian automatically reactivates after 30 seconds, and the whole system doesn't collapse.
The thing that surprised me the most
It's not about making money—it's about trust.
On the first day, I checked my holdings every 10 minutes. The next day, I only watched a few times. On the third day, when I found out it was trading, I was scrolling through Douyin.
Now I've completely let go. When the signal comes, place the order directly. Just notify me via WeChat.
An AI code running in the terminal is even more stable than me, a seasoned veteran who has been trading for two years.
AI won't make you rich overnight. But it can help you:
Turn vague ideas into actionable strategies
Use historical data to verify whether the strategy can actually make money
Execute 24 hours a day with cold blood, unswayed by greed and fear
#OKX #加密货币 #合约交易 #AI量化$ALLO （Allora）
ALLO's rise is rooted in the ongoing rotation of the AI sector—DeAI (decentralized artificial intelligence) is considered one of the few niche areas with clear application scenarios.
ALLO has a unique deflationary model—calling AI inference burns ALLO tokens. The total supply is 10 billion coins, but only about 20% is in circulation. If the ecosystem continues to expand (such as Cobot usage, Prime staking, etc.), deflationary effects will keep narrowing circulating supply, providing structural support for prices.
Previously, the Allora team released the "Allo v3" upgrade, transforming the protocol from a simple liquidity layer into a cross-chain "universal allocation" network—allowing AI agents to autonomously allocate funds across more than 12 EVM chains. This upgrade greatly expands the protocol's possibilities and marks a core milestone in recent ecosystem development.
From the market structure, ALLO's bullish trend has fully begun—bears cannot effectively sustain each decline, lows are gradually rising, and chips are steadily concentrating. However, the analysis on July 15 also pointed out that ALLO's upward trend is stable but trading volume is still insufficient, so caution is needed regarding a surge and pullback.🚨 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN CATALYST OF THE YEAR? The Bitcoin Clarity Act is reportedly expected to receive a U.S. Senate vote as early as next week. If passed, it could mark one of the most significant steps toward regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. Why the market is watching: ⚖️ Clearer rules could reduce uncertainty for investors. 🏦 Institutions may gain greater confidence to expand crypto exposure. 🌍 A defined regulatory framework could accelerate long-term adoption. For years, crypto To view keyboard shortcuts, press the question mark
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Taiwan "copies EU MiCA homework" and submits it, the license battle officially begins
Kaomei'er 
@Conflux_Intern
·
36 minutes ago
On July 1, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed the "Virtual Asset Service Act" in its third reading.
The core of the bill is not complicated: VASPs (Virtual Asset Service Providers) and stablecoin issuers must obtain approval from the Financial Supervisory Commission to operate. Platforms that have completed anti-money laundering registration have 12 months to apply for a license and another 21 months to obtain formal approval.
If approval is not obtained by the deadline, platforms and individuals still "naked running" face up to 7 years imprisonment and fines up to 100 million New Taiwan Dollars. Those involved in fraud or market manipulation face sentences ranging from 3 to 10 years, with fines up to 200 million New Taiwan Dollars.
The "lease" of the gray area expires
Over the past years, Taiwan's crypto industry has lived in a very delicate space. As long as anti-money laundering registration is completed, platforms could operate under the banner of "compliant operation" to attract users. As for licenses, internal controls, and cybersecurity—these hard thresholds—regulators never truly forced compliance.
This ambiguity has supported many small and medium exchanges and shadow service providers. Their moat is not technology or capital strength, but information asymmetry and regulatory sluggishness.
Now this moat has been filled. Taiwanese lawyer Kevin Cheng puts it bluntly: companies that survive by skirting regulations will no longer have gray areas to hide.
For ordinary investors, this means the next 21 months will be a process of trust revaluation. Which platforms genuinely invest in licenses and internal controls, and which quietly shrink or run away, the answers will gradually emerge. Historical experience tells us that in every such window period, some exchanges choose "closing down is cheaper than compliance."
A replica of MiCA
If you feel Taiwan's stablecoin rules look familiar, that's right—they are almost copied from the EU's MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation).
MiCA's core design for stablecoins is two iron rules. First, reserves must be full, segregated, and bankruptcy-remote, requiring issuers to maintain sufficient reserves and guarantee redemption mechanisms and operational safety measures to prevent liquidity crises and bank runs. Second, paying interest to holders is prohibited; Article 50 of MiCA directly forbids electronic money tokens from paying interest to holders, with the straightforward reason of drawing a clear line between payment functions and yield generation, preventing stablecoins from becoming disguised savings tools.
Taiwan's legislation this time almost copies this verbatim—reserves must be custodied in domestic financial institutions, segregated from common equity, prioritized for repayment to holders in bankruptcy, and issuers are prohibited from paying interest. This is no coincidence; it is the consensus draft formed by global regulators on stablecoin issues. The "safety standards" for stablecoins have been written first by the EU; Taiwan is not innovating regulation but copying a verified homework.
MiCA's requirements for exchanges and service providers (CASPs) follow the same logic. Whitepapers, financial reports, and operational details must be publicly disclosed according to regulatory standards to enhance market integrity and investor trust; for serious violations, regulators have the authority to permanently ban companies from providing specific crypto assets or services. Taiwan's VASP licensing system, internal control requirements, and penalty design follow the same logic of "prove you deserve the license, or be permanently out."
Stricter than MiCA
The real difference is that Taiwan has sharpened the regulatory knife sharper than the EU.
MiCA's penalties mostly remain administrative—freezing funds, revoking licenses, fines—a "closing shop" logic. Regulators can freeze suspected illegal funds or permanently ban companies from providing services, but there is no clause sending unlicensed operators directly to prison.
Taiwan explicitly includes criminal liability in the law—unlicensed operation of VASPs or stablecoin issuance can lead to up to 7 years imprisonment; fraud or market manipulation, 3 to 10 years. This is the essential difference. MiCA targets "companies," Taiwan targets "people." For practitioners used to "company fines and then continuing under a new shell," Taiwan's approach directly blocks this—people can go to jail, shells cannot replace jail time.
Additionally, MiCA gives member states some transitional flexibility; Germany, Austria, Ireland, and others have shorter transition windows than the unified deadline, while the Netherlands and Poland started earlier, making the overall pace fragmented and gradual. Taiwan's 12 months to apply and 21 months to approve is a hard timeline with no flexibility, creating a stronger sense of compression.
Old money enters, compliance becomes a chip
Another door opened by this law is allowing traditional financial institutions to directly apply to operate VASPs. Banks, brokerages, these holders of licenses, risk control teams, and compliance budgets now have a legitimate entry ticket.
Kevin Cheng's judgment is: existing crypto companies will soon face a batch of new competitors "whose compliance capabilities far exceed their own." The funding logic behind this is clear—the first beneficiaries of regulatory frameworks are often not the original industry players but traditional capital waiting on the sidelines until rules are clear.
When rules are unclear, wild teams run fast and capture market share; once rules are clear, compliance costs become calculable costs, and big money has the advantage—they are not afraid of being slow, but of uncertainty. Taiwan's legislation essentially removes the variable of "uncertainty" from the table and replaces it with "compliance cost."
For existing Taiwanese crypto companies, the window period is the last preparation time. Either complete licenses, capital, and risk control systems before traditional financial institutions complete their layout, establishing a first-mover advantage hard for latecomers to replicate in the short term; or prepare to be acquired or squeezed to the market edge.
A narrow door for derivatives
Amid tightening, legislators left a tiny gap.
The resolution requires the Financial Supervisory Commission to submit a plan within one year to open up crypto companies to offer "cryptocurrency derivatives." This narrow door may be a key future variable.👇👇 Has Bitcoin Bottomed? 🤔 My view: Probably not—at least not yet. Here's why: 📉 History rhymes. Previous bear markets saw strong mid-cycle rallies before making new lows. The current rally still fits that pattern. 📊 The drawdown remains relatively shallow. Past bear markets reached much deeper corrections before finding a lasting bottom. 🔄 No major capitulation event. Previous cycle lows were marked by forced liquidations and panic selling. This cycle hasn't seen a comparable washout. 💰 RealiFederal Reserve Expectations Diverge
Trump publicly supports Waller leading the Federal Reserve, pressuring policy toward the world's lowest interest rates, criticizing the current board as "politicized" and lacking sufficient motivation for rate cuts. The mainstream market expectation for this FOMC meeting is to hold steady, but the probability of a rate hike has risen to 30%, with a 68% chance of a hike within the year; the market is focused on Waller's speech, wary that energy inflation risks may strengthen tightening expectations.
Short term: The expectation of no rate hike is basically priced in by the market, only bringing a weak emotional recovery, unlikely to reverse the current weak market trend.
Mid term: The cloud of rate hikes has not dissipated; if Waller's speech mentions oil supply shocks pushing up inflation, it will further strengthen hawkish expectations, continuously suppressing valuations of crypto risk assets.
Long term: The low interest rate policy stance constitutes a long-term bullish logic, but currently it is only a political statement with a long realization cycle, not supporting a trend reversal for now.
Before the FOMC meeting, the market is likely to be cautiously volatile; pay attention to hawkish or dovish signals in the meeting statement and Waller's speech, strictly control positions to cope with unexpected volatility The A-share market has the best retail investors in the world, who provide the best valuations for listed companies.
Micron has fallen below a trillion in market value, and now Changxin's market value is about half of Micron's, yet their performance is worlds apart.
Today's Changxin is roughly equivalent to two Maotai companies, while four years ago this company was still struggling to break even. The flow of wealth across different eras is so turbulent and intense.
The future potential of Changxin's stock price? I think the speculative volatility within the next 6 months will be very high, and it is entirely possible for it to rise by several tens of percent, after all, it only has a circulating market value of 300 billion, which is just like Cambricon last year; with 30-50 billion of hot money driving it, it can be speculated upward.
But as time goes on and a large number of restricted shares are unlocked, Changxin's sentiment will cool down, valuations will return to rationality, and in the end, you get what you pay for. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 July 28, 2026 Crypto Market Analysis
(Reference for point positions is valid only on the same day)
Source: Da Dart
For now, let's view this structure as bearish; there's no rush to buy the bottom during the decline.
Although the weekly chart has not yet closed the line, it has already given back some of the gains from the previous three weeks of bullish candles; The daily chart has also turned downward, with the intraday trend continuing to tilt downward. 63,700 is undergoing continuation testing after breaking below it; if it cannot hold, it means this downtrend is not yet over.
【BTC】
Resistance above: 64,300, 64,800, 65,200
Support levels: 62,500, 61,400, 60,600
63,700 is currently the core key level. If it cannot recover quickly after a break, first look to 62,500. Whether there is a stoppage and consolidation in this area will determine whether the pullback will first break through a single recovery or continue to seek deeper support at 61,400 and 60,600.
64,300 is both the dividing line between bulls and bears on the daily chart, and the first threshold for a rebound to strengthen. Only when prices return to 64,300 can there be conditions to recover from 64,800 and 65,200; If you can't hold back, try to recover weakly on the rebound first. Don't rush to confirm the downtrend is over just because of one or two bullish candles.
Not guessing the lowest point now; first let's see if 63,700 can recover after falling. If 62500 has taken hold, wait for a recovery. If 62500 continues to fall, focus on 61400 and 60600. Confirming first is more important than early bottom-fishing.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.Playing the grid into a suicide attack, 95U loses 65U, SanDisk teaches me how to be a person
Here's the story: I opened a grid on SanDisk, with a range of 1337-1635, 10x leverage, hoping to profit from volatility in a volatile market. As a result, SanDisk dropped from 2354 all the way to 1200. During the decline, Grid diligently helped me buy the bottom, losing more and more, and buying more and more as I lost. 524 arbitrage attempts, earning a total of 1.45 USD, unrealized loss of 65 USD, total return -67.95%. Grid strategies are like money printing machines in volatile markets, and meat grinders in one-sided declines. It doesn't use brains, only executes mechanically. When the price drops below the lower band, you can only watch as losses widen or manually cut losses and exit. After paying the tuition, I learned the lesson: don't open grid positions during a downtrend, and if you do, only open spot grid trading, without leverage. SanDisk's price rose from 28 to 2354, an 84-fold increase. A 40% pullback is normal; what's abnormal is that I set the wrong parameters.
SanDisk is currently around 1200, so I'm waiting and not bottom-fishing. I'll wait until it holds above 1300 before reconsidering. 95U lost 65U, and the remaining 30U was saved for a meal, at least better than continuing to lose money. I'm really roughThe two main drivers behind today's decline
(1) Geopolitical risk premium fades (sentiment)
Progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, with the US military pausing attacks on Iran, and Brent crude oil immediately fell by 90.43 per barrel. The risk premium accumulated earlier due to geopolitical conflicts is rapidly being squeezed out, with funds rotating from risk assets to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The fading of the geopolitical premium means that the "war narrative" that previously supported price increases is beginning to unravel.
(2) Rising Interest Rate Hike Expectations (Macroeconomic Perspective)
CME data shows the market sees a 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July, and the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 55.7%. Although inflation fell to 3.5% in June, Middle East conditions pushing up oil prices have made policy paths more complex. Rising Treasury yields have further suppressed the valuation space of crypto assets.
Combined with over 150,000 liquidations within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of about $591 million, the forced liquidations by bulls further intensified the decline. $ETH $BTC $SOL #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables TETHER'S STRATEGY FUNDING TWO COMPETITIVE BLOCKCHAINS TO CAPTURE $2.9 BILLION IN FEES ⚡
Stablecoin issuer Tether is executing a strategic maneuver by financing two distinct blockchain networks, Plasma and Stable, to resolve operational cost leakages. Currently, every time users execute a USDT transfer, mandatory gas fees are remitted to underlying infrastructure platforms like Ethereum or Tron. This outward fee leakage is estimated at approximately $2.9 billion annually, representing a massive revenue stream that Tether has yet to capture directly.
Launched in September, Plasma operates by offering zero-fee USDT transfers, focusing on expanding decentralized finance ecosystems. Conversely, Stable, which debuted in December, utilizes USDT directly as its native gas token, catering specifically to enterprise payment solutions. Neither project directly competes with the other; instead, both target market share held by Tron, which controls roughly 45% of global USDT circulation due to its dominance in international remittances.
Although both new blockchains have yet to capture significant market share from Tron, this direction highlights Tether's long-term capital optimization vision. Reducing intermediary costs enhances operational efficiency and fortifies the digital asset ecosystem. Infrastructure support across major exchanges continues to provide a firm foundation for stable payment solutions to scale. Infrastructure self-reliance remains a pivotal driver for the broader market.
In your opinion, will Tether funding dedicated blockchains successfully allow them to capture the $2.9 billion in transfer fees currently flowing to Tron and Ethereum?
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $TRX $ETH $XPL Changxin Memory just listed and flipped the whole storage game 🚨
A-shares have a new king. CXMT debuted on STAR, surged to a 3 trillion yuan market cap — passing ICBC. I tried for the IPO lottery too. Balance too low. Story of my life.
With CXMT in, DRAM is now a 3-way fight: China vs US vs Korea. The SK Hynix / Micron / SanDisk monopoly is cracking. CXMT already grabbed 8% global share, sitting at #4 and climbing.
Fundamentals look wild. H1 2026 revenue + profit up multiples. 25x PE in this tech cycle? Cheap vs the US giants.
But 2 big risks to watch:
1. Ownership chaos: ∼10M people applied, 7M+ retail got shares. No major holders locked in. When it pops, everyone sells into each other.
2. Supply bomb: Only 6.73% float tradable day 1, no limits for 5 days. Hype can send it parabolic, but lock-up expiries are coming fast.
Great company. Not necessarily a blind buy here.
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch After a large amount of ETH short liquidation, the market is waiting for trend confirmation
If the liquidation data itself already provides sufficient conditions for short-term repricing, then whether the bulls can control the depth of subsequent adjustments is the real point of disagreement.
The original post cited a set of liquidation data: approximately $2.7 billion in short positions and about $1.7 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated. The bears suffered more severe losses, and that's a fact. But it's important to clarify that liquidation data is the result, not the cause—it reflects the tail shock of a period of intense volatility, not a leading signal of trend continuation.
Impact on Market Structure:
- Large-scale short liquidations directly reduce the short-term pressure on ETH short selling, releasing some passive buying (closing buys), which provides very short-term support for the price.
- On the other hand, bulls also endured $1.7 billion in liquidations, indicating that leveraged long positions were also washed out, which in turn reduced the risk of a sharp drop caused by a bullish stampede.
- Overall leverage has decreased, and market participants have become cleaner, which helps prices regain balance at lower volatility.
Pricing logic and expectations gap:
- The current ETH price has partially priced in the positive news of short selling, but what remains unpriced is: if a correction occurs, will the market see it as a healthy pullback (buying opportunity) or as the starting point for a trend reversal?
- Conditions for a bullish path: During the correction, volume decreases, prices hold key support levels (such as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement or the upper boundary of the previous range), and spot premiums remain stable. If met, it may form a structure of charging upward attacks.
- Conditions for bearish risk: If the adjustment is accompanied by a drop on high volume, or if the price breaks support and the rebound becomes weak, it may indicate that the liquidity vacuum after liquidation actually attracts new bears, causing the trend to fail.
Conclusion: Liquidation data itself does not constitute trend confirmation; it only removes some of the noise that hinders price discovery. The real test lies in the willingness and depth of buying in the next round of correction. If the correction is quickly absorbed, the upside structure holds; If the correction evolves into an accelerated decline, a reassessment is necessary.
The market always completes self-correction through liquidation. Follow the trend, not just the numbers.
$ETH $BTC#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. The whole market can be summed up in one word: miserable. BTC is currently at 63,184, down 2.07%, having already broken the 63k level. The volume is 6.4 billion, slightly larger than a few days ago, indicating that some are bottom-fishing while others are cutting losses. The intraday low hit 63,122, and 62k is on the verge of collapse. If 63k is confirmed, the next stop is 62k or even 61k. ETH fared even worse, dropping 2.65% to 1876, and 1900 was also breached. The tagalong is a good job, and when the big brother breaks down, it falls along. The chip sector collapsed across the board: Samsung fell 5.71% to 154.86, down nearly 30% from its previous high. SanDisk fell 4.35% to 1225, dropping from 2354 to 1225 in July, a 47% halving. AMD fell 0.66%, showing some resilience, while Intel dropped 0.34%, basically unchanged. The core driver of today's decline is the collective revaluation of the AI hardware sector. Samsung Electronics' stock price hit a new low for the year, SK Hynix fell in tandem, and the market is repricing the investment return cycle for AI infrastructure. The controversy over Nvidia's financing for OpenAI to lease data centers is still brewing, and Wall Street's doubts about the "circular financing" model have not subsided. Samsung's decline is more complicated. In addition to the overall pressure on the AI sector, Samsung is also facing pressure from rising memory chip inventories. Profits from the smartphone business declined, and combined with a slowdown in memory chip price increases, multiple negative factors combined to directly affect the market. Key levels: BTC support at 63k (already broken), next support at 62k-61$CORE 项目方上海行程完整梳理（官方无公开精确日程，结合社群消息、行业峰会、公关动作整理）
一、出行背景
团队结束香港机构洽谈后，7月下旬分批抵达上海，一行包含基金会商务负责人、生态对接专员、海外托管合作对接人，没有公开高管露脸（全程低调，不公开参会合影）；国内全程由外包公关、社群服务商对接，核心操盘人员极少现身公开场合。
二、每日分段行程（7.24-7.28）
7月24日 落地预热，私董闭门洽谈
1、下午：浦东落地，入住陆家嘴五星酒店（方便对接资管机构）；
2、晚间：闭门小型私董会，对接上海本地小型家族办公室、加密资管居间人，主推BTC双重质押、比特币电网叙事，洽谈托管通道合作；
3、幕后动作：同步给国内水军、星球创作者投放新软文素材，铺垫“上海战略布局”利好文案。
7月25日 行业峰会蹭场+机构拜访
1、上午：西岸Web3小型闭门论坛（无上台演讲，仅台下私下对接参会机构），全程低调不举项目名牌；
2、下午：走访2家上海离岸资产咨询公司，沟通亚太合规框架、SatPay跨境支付落地包装方案；
3、晚间：商务饭局，对接交易所居间、流量大号，商议盘面量化维稳、社群舆情管控方案。
7月26日 生态招商，炒冷饭叙事输出
1、上午：张江科创园线下小型开发者茶话会（外包服务商主办，项目方人员仅旁听），宣讲BTCFi、比特币电网旧框架；
2、下午：和国内托管渠道居间沟通，洽谈新增验证节点合作（仅挂牌合作，无资金实投）；
3、重点动作：全网同步刷屏“上海落地重磅战略”软文，也就是你看到的比特币电网利好宣传，用来对冲币价创新低的负面情绪。
7月27日 回访居间、敲定宣传节奏
1、全天无公开大型活动，分散拜访前期对接的资管中间人；
2、敲定后续香港、东南亚行程宣传排期，规划接下来半个月的利好发布节点；
3、同步下达社群维稳任务：要求吹子托发布5U-15U天价预期，稳住深套散户。
7月28日（今日）收尾返程筹备
1、上午：整理上海洽谈对接名单，大多停留在意向沟通，无实质签约落地；
2、下午分批离沪，一部分返回香港，一部分飞回海外基金会主体所在地；
3、返程后会持续放出“上海之行硕果累累”的公关通稿，继续画饼造势。
三、行程三大真相（戳破宣传滤镜）
1、全程没有实质落地签约
所有机构对接只停留在意向交流，没有资金进场、没有SatPay落地合作、没有机构大额质押BTC增量；所谓战略布局，全部是口头洽谈，用来产出公关素材。
2、所有出行开销100%靠抛售CORE代币
项目无生态营收，上海酒店、峰会门票、居间茶水费、水军投放预算，全部来自每月解锁的零成本筹码变现；币价越跌，越需要频繁跑城市造势，制造“项目持续发展”的假象，方便出货。
3、低调隐藏核心团队，只派外围人员露面
真正手握国库大额筹码、负责量化操盘的核心人员全程不出席公开场合，露面的只是商务外包专员，规避市场操纵、代币套现相关风险。
⚠️风险提示：虚拟货币交易炒作在我国属于非法金融活动，内容仅客观梳理行业公关行为，不构成任何投资建议。A very clear recent change in the market: the hotspots are no longer concentrated on AI and new meme coins.
Funds have started to explore unpopular sectors that experienced significant declines earlier.
Old MEME coins PEOPLE, NFT blue chip $APE, cross-chain infrastructure ZRO, and SOL token issuance platform PUMP have all rebounded by over 10%.
This is a typical case of existing funds "robbing Peter to pay Paul," with rapid sector rotation.
At this stage, there is not enough incremental capital to support a full-scale bull market, so chasing high in one sector can easily lead to an immediate switch.If you ask me if SanDisk can still reach 1600, I'll ask you in return: Do you know how much this lousy company has risen since it was split last year? From $28 to $2,354—in less than a year, that's an 84-fold increase. And what happened? In July alone, it fell from 2354 to 1295, a 45% decrease. Is this called defying the heavens? This is called a pig-butchering scam. To understand why it has risen first, you can understand why it has fallen. The core driving force behind SanDisk's current rally is one — the imbalance between supply and demand for AI memory chips. Bernstein spoke very bluntly: SanDisk signed a batch of new long-term supply agreements (LTAs), which are no longer the same-date contracts as before, but fixed price ranges + customer prepaid financial commitments, with contract terms extended to three to five years. Goldman Sachs forecasts the August 5 earnings report to be a "very strong quarter," setting a target price as high as $2,200. The performance was indeed impressive: Q3 data center revenue surged 233% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margin reaching 78.4%. Management's Q4 guidance is also quite optimistic: revenue of $7.75-8.25 billion, gross margin of 79%-81%, and earnings per share of $30-33. But look at the stock price—what is it doing? On July 1, Bank of America raised its target price to $2,500, and SanDisk fell 10% that day. On July 16, it dropped another 13% in a single day. By July 27, another drop of over 13% occurred, directly breaking through 1400. Why is that? Because the market fears that things have changed. A stock that has risen 84 times doesn't care about its "performance" at all, only whether it "can get better." Hua兄弟们，SHIB今天跌6.38%，现价0.000004645美元。 周末的暴涨是一波韩国散户集中买盘驱动的脉冲行情——Upbit的SHIB/KRW交易对占全球交易量10%以上，涨幅在亚洲早盘时段二次拉升，与韩国交易时段高度吻合。同期DOGE仅温和上涨，说明这是资金集中流入SHIB的单一资产行情，而非Meme板块全面复苏。 价位：阻力$0.00000500（100日EMA），强阻力$0.00000600（200日EMA）；支撑$0.00000445-$0.00000464（正在测试），关键支撑$0.00000402。 0.00000445是多头必须守住的防线。破位则周末的暴涨就只是一次短暂的情绪脉冲，而非趋势的起点。 个人盘面观点分析与市场信息整理，非投资建议。 $ETH $BTC $SHIB #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 Woke up to everything in red, what happened?
Opened the shop in the morning, after the morning rush, I leaned against the cashier counter and scrolled through my phone. The trending topics were all red. $BTC dropped nearly 2%, ETH fell almost 3%, SAMSUNG down 5%, XSKHY down 1.7%, XMSFT down 0.4%, $XMSFT down 1.2%, and $CL also dropped 2%. The screen was full of green numbers.
People in the group chat were already cursing. Some said it was funds seeking safety ahead of the FOMC, others said the ceasefire news caused the war premium to fade, some blamed Changxin's listing for draining liquidity. There were all kinds of explanations, but no one could say for sure which was the real reason.
I checked the news. Bitcoin dropped 2.53% in 24 hours, with over 150,000 liquidations across the network, ETH fell 3.22%. This wave wiped out the gains from the oil price crash and BTC's rebound to 65,000 in the past few days. BTC ETF just ended a 7-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of 225 million; Fidelity's FBTC was hit hard, losing 200 million in one day. I was thinking that with oil prices down and inflation pressure easing, BTC might finally catch a break, but before it could even breathe, it was pushed back down.
The reason boils down to one thing: the FOMC is coming. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the market fears a rate hike. Interest rate futures have pushed the probability of a hike to about 36%, up from 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, it even reached 27%. No one dares to bet whether the Fed will hold steady or actually raise rates this time. Historically, Bitcoin and rate hike probabilities have moved inversely.
The screen is all red, but honestly, my small position in the account is also in the red. I glanced and closed it, not wanting to say much. Watching it doesn't help; what should fall will fall, and what should rise will rise naturally. Let's wait for the FOMC results. Jumping in now means either bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
Breaking data released: The monthly trading volume of RWA real-world asset perpetual contracts has surged to $470 billion, multiplying several times compared to the beginning of the year. Many outsiders don't understand this news, so Coin Brother straightforwardly breaks it down: RWA perpetuals are on-chain leveraged contracts tracking US stocks, commodities, and US bonds, trading 24/7 nonstop.
The explosion in trading volume essentially means traditional financial capital has found a new channel to enter and exit the crypto market, no longer relying solely on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
1. Core logic behind the volume surge
1) Shift in trading categories: Tokenized tech stocks, storage chips, crude oil, and gold have become the main drivers of volume.
Previously, RWA mainly focused on US Treasury spot assets. Now, traders are flocking to tokenized perpetuals of Tesla, Microsoft, and storage sectors. A large amount of short-term US stock capital directly goes long or short tech targets on crypto platforms without needing US stock accounts, settled in stablecoins, with lower barriers and unrestricted trading hours.
2) Capital diversion effect emerges
Two types of capital continue to enter:
① Traditional short-term traders using RWA contracts to hedge US stock holdings;
② Native crypto funds no longer just speculating on native coins but starting to allocate real-world assets to diversify risk.
3) Exchanges fully support
Leading platforms continuously launch RWA perpetual products, lowering trading thresholds and improving liquidity. However, risks exist simultaneously: oracle price delays, regulatory uncertainties, and insufficient depth, causing slippage during volatile markets.
2. Objective breakdown of benefits and potential risks
✅ Positive signals
1) Large amounts of traditional capital flow into the crypto ecosystem via the RWA channel, steadily increasing stablecoin demand, benefiting the crypto market's liquidity foundation in the mid to long term;
2) Opening linkage channels between crypto, US stocks, and commodities accelerates global asset price transmission;
3) The RWA narrative continues to materialize, with underlying public chains and RWA protocols in this sector having long-term potential.
Not to be ignored negatives
1) Capital diversion! A large amount of speculative funds shift to RWA stock and commodity contracts, temporarily withdrawing liquidity from Bitcoin and altcoins;
2) Amplified volatility resonance. US stock earnings reports and macro data fluctuations at night directly transmit to crypto markets, causing more frequent overnight spikes;
3) Regulatory overhang. Tokenized securities are a regulatory focus; once restrictive policies are introduced, capital will quickly flee the sector.
3. Key: How it affects the Bitcoin market
Many mistakenly think RWA is unrelated to BTC, but now capital flows are interconnected with increasing correlation.
Two scenarios clearly distinguished:
1) Positive correlation: Continuous RWA inflows indicate global risk appetite recovery; strengthening US tech stocks and commodities drive Bitcoin to oscillate upward, testing resistance at 66800;
2) Negative resonance: A sharp US stock drop causes RWA contracts to collectively crash, spreading panic and dragging BTC down to test support at 64000.
Coin Brother's key view: The most immediate short-term impact is amplified market volatility.
Going forward, overnight US stock news and tech earnings will be reflected faster in crypto prices, making overnight risk critical. In the mid to long term, RWA represents incremental capital inflows but will compete with Bitcoin for speculative funds in the short term.
4. BTC short-term key ranges
Support: 64600—64000
Resistance: 66000—66800
5. Coin Brother's practical approach
1) Spot traders
Current oscillation pattern remains unchanged; do not aggressively add positions based solely on RWA news. Gradually build positions at support zones on pullbacks; avoid chasing at resistance. Continue holding long-term base positions to reduce frequent trading fees. Extra attention: changes in stablecoin supply are the most direct indicator of incremental capital.
2) Futures traders
Overnight volatility risk significantly increases; reduce leverage and avoid heavy overnight positions. Stay mostly on the sidelines within the range, wait for effective support or resistance breaks to trade with the trend, strictly set stop losses, and avoid holding losing positions.
Do not blindly follow hype on small RWA-related tokens; most have poor liquidity and high risk.
3) Long-term focus
Track two key points: first, whether regulators impose restrictions on tokenized securities; second, whether RWA trading volume can sustain high levels to determine if this is a short-term market heat or a long-term capital trend.$SNDK $MU The sharp drop in US stocks owes much to Changxin
The veteran broke through, leaving nothing alive
Because the old and medium-sized companies are so ruthless that even their own companies are losing money, such as photovoltaics, and the overall profitability of new energy vehicles has begun to deteriorate
Double losses are better than single gains, and industries that were originally priced as luxury goods are now competing with migrant workers' incomes.
See today's BBA prices 😂 in mainland China
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Amazon is set to release its Q2 earnings report on July 30, with the core market debate centered on whether AWS's 28% revenue growth rate can be sustained, and whether high AI infrastructure investments will erode its 37% operating margin and trigger a valuation restructuring.
Baseline data shows that AWS revenue in Q1 was $37.587 billion, up 28% year-over-year, with operating profit of $14.161 billion for the quarter, corresponding to a profit margin of 37.7%. Consolidated Q1 net sales reached $181.5 billion, with the official default Q2 net sales guidance range locked at $194 billion to $199 billion.
The driving factor transmission logic prioritizes AWS segment revenue growth, followed by margin losses, and finally the degree of capital expenditure squeezing free cash flow. New data centers, self-developed Trainium chip deployment, and energy costs are raising the cost base. If revenue growth cannot keep up with investment, the overall risk appetite of the technology sector will face a downward revision.
The trigger for the upside scenario is that AWS revenue growth remains at 28% or above, and the segment operating margin stays above 37%. The key variable to watch is whether demand released by AI services like Bedrock can absorb infrastructure depreciation. If the company's Q2 operating profit reaches the upper limit of the guidance range of $24 billion, capital will push up the valuation premium of the computing power chain again.
The failure signal of this upward scenario is AWS's revenue growth falling below 25%, or a quarterly decline in free cash flow due to capital expenditure pressure.
The downside scenario triggers AWS's revenue growth below 28% in the previous quarter, while new hardware depreciation and energy expenses drag segment profit margins below 35%. The variable to watch is the widening gap between free cash flow and operating cash flow, which will trigger a market repricing of AI infrastructure input-output ratios, leading to a collective clearing of high-β technology positions.
The failure of this downward scenario was confirmed by management during the conference call that limited computing power supply was the main reason for the slowdown in growth, and that sufficient orders on hand would ensure a rebound in the coming quarter.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the actual AWS segment revenue, segment operating margin, and management's detailed explanation of capital expenditures and computing power supply bottlenecks to be released on July 30.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heardMany people ask me why someone running a family office spends every day showing off cold water baths, Oura data, and Pokémon cards. The answer is simple: I manage investment, body, and luck as one system. It's not just three things, but one thing. First, about money: core assets will only rise in the long run. In 2024, I did crypto by +380%, but in 2025 it only recovered +8%, and the year-to-date is still down 23–26%. But I wasn't worried at all. Why? Because I was looking at the M2. The US dollar M2 has been expanding at an average annual rate of 9% over the past 20 years. This means the cash in your hands is quietly evaporating by 9% every year. Gold is seen at 5,500, BTC at 100,000—not a prediction, it's math. Fiat currencies are depreciating, hard assets are being repriced—it's that simple. Interestingly, at the beginning of 2026, $BTC experienced a rare decoupling from global M2—starting from mid-2025, Bitcoin stopped following liquidity, with the Z-score dropping from +1.48 to -1.31. A group of people started shouting, "Digital gold narratives are dead." But history tells us that this deep negative correlation is often a precursor to a rebound. Last time correlation fell below -0.48, BTC jumped directly from 112,000 to a historic high of 126,000. The question of core assets has never been "whether they will rise," but "whether you can hold onto them." Tesla's Ten Years: The Crystal Ball Issue Started Buying Tesla in 2016, with an average price of 8 yuanTrump calls again for a rate cut, but the real market impact still depends on the Fed's stance
Trump has once again publicly pressured the Federal Reserve.
He called on the Fed to cut rates as soon as possible, even stating that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates globally.
I believe Trump's statements are more about signaling a political position, but the real decision-maker on U.S. interest rates remains the Federal Reserve, not the White House.
The market will not reprice just because of a single call.
What truly affects Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and gold trends is the Fed's assessment of inflation, the economy, and the future policy path.
Currently, the market widely expects the Fed to likely keep rates unchanged this week.
This outcome has already been largely priced in by the market.
The real focus is on the post-meeting press conference.
Investors are more concerned about:
• How the Fed evaluates recent inflation data?
• Whether it believes conditions for a rate cut are gradually maturing?
• Whether it will signal any new policy directions for the coming months?
These points will directly influence market expectations for liquidity.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, acknowledges ongoing inflation improvement, and hints at potential rate cuts in the future, risk assets could continue to attract capital, and Bitcoin and Ethereum might gain new upward momentum.
If the language remains hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks are not fully eliminated, the market may readjust rate cut expectations, and short-term volatility could increase.
Don't focus on politicians' speeches; pay attention to the institutions that truly hold decision-making power.
The market ultimately trades not on words but on whether future funding costs will decrease and liquidity will improve.
Trump can influence market sentiment, but the Fed decides monetary policy. What really impacts the next phase of the market is not who is calling for rate cuts, but whether the Fed signals a clearer policy shift. $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Last night, before going to bed, I casually opened a page and couldn't sleep at 2 a.m
South Korea's KOSPI fell 7%, triggering the sidecar mechanism
Nikkei fell 4%
Financial markets are collapsing
Then guess what
I immediately opened the BitMine withdrawal record
Four hours ago, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
Arthur Hayes is also buying, 3,298 ETH
Whales are buying in a panicked market
This signal is too obvious
The crash in the Korean stock market is not bad news for crypto; in fact, it is a good thing
Let me explain the logic behind this
South Korean retail investors can be considered one of the most active crypto trading groups in the world
KOSPI fell 8%, meaning their stock positions were losing money
But they won't withdraw money and put it in the bank to earn interest
They will move funds to the crypto market
Because Korean retail investors are very familiar with the crypto world
Upbit's trading volume surges every time after a Korean stock market crash
This isn't speculation—it's based on historical data
The last time Korea triggered the sidecar mechanism,
BTC has seen a premium in South Korea, reaching as high as 5%.
This shows that Koreans are buying in large quantities
Now the same script is being repeated
And this time is different
SK Hynix ADR fell below its issue price
Kioxia plunges 18%
Memory semiconductors collapsed across the board
These funds are withdrawing from semiconductors, and they need to find new exits
Crypto is the outlet
So my judgment is
Short-term panic is real, and BTC may reach 62,000 again
But in the medium term, the inflow of Korean funds will create new buying support
This isn't called bottom-fishing; it's logic-driven
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The biggest showdown of the week is actually the early hours of Thursday. Castle Securities says Wash might unexpectedly raise rates, but I think the probability is low. Powell's core logic is whether inflation has come down—oil prices have fallen, inflationary pressures are easing, and there's no reason to force rate hikes.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
ETH validator exit queues have been reduced to zero, which is a previously overlooked positive factor. Previously, due to ETH's sluggish price, many people wanted to exit staking, but now no one wants to withdraw. With validator confidence restored, ETH staking yields will become attractive again.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Oil prices have fallen, inflation expectations have decreased, and pressure on the Federal Reserve has eased. The entire macro narrative is moving in a positive direction. In the short term, the market is dominated by panic and can't see these things, but by Thursday's Fed meeting, these positive factors will be realized together.
$BTC $ETH #韩国股市 #资金轮动 #宏观📊 $WLD Liquidation Overview
24-hour liquidation reached $2.2643 million, with **long position liquidations at $2.1993 million accounting for 97.1% of the total**, short position liquidations only $64,900, making longs 34 times the shorts. In 1 hour, liquidations hit $11,100 with zero shorts, showing no resistance from the short side; in 4 hours, long liquidations were $1.2571 million (98.3%), indicating a fierce long squeeze; in 12 hours, long liquidations reached $1.7686 million (98.6%), marking the most brutal long squeeze window of the day. Liquidations are concentrated in the 4-12 hour period (79%), with the 24-hour total roughly equal to the 12-hour total, and very limited increase in the latter 12 hours.
In summary: $WLD experiences a concentrated main downtrend wave in 4-12 hours, with longs suffering devastating liquidations and shorts dominating.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season"—from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Fed's interest rate decision, to the earnings tests of tech giants.
📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The 3.66 trillion yuan "domestic substitution" frenzy
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, surging 471.59% at open, with market cap briefly surpassing 3.66 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share by market cap. Expected net profit exceeded 50 billion yuan in H1, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. However, controversy remains: technology still lags about 2 generations and 3 years behind US and Korean giants. Whether the 3.66 trillion yuan valuation marks the start of a super cycle or a peak is sharply debated. After ChangXin's listing, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped about 4% intraday.
🏛️ Fed Interest Rate Decision: Rising expectations of a rate hike
The Fed will hold its policy meeting from July 28-29. Economists unanimously expect no change, but interest rate futures price in a 36% chance of a hike. The divergence stems from oil prices—Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, with US-Iran tensions pushing up geopolitical risk premiums and inflation pressures rising again. Whether Fed Chair Powell will deliver a "surprise hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "burn rate" model under scrutiny
This week, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon release earnings with a shared core question: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue? Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow—AI spending is faster than expected. Whether Microsoft Azure can maintain over 40% growth, Meta's capital expenditure guidance raised to $125-145 billion and whether AI erodes ad profits, and if Amazon AWS growth can exceed 30% will determine if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
💎 Summary
ChangXin Technology's 3.66 trillion yuan valuation is an extreme pricing of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." The AI narrative is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ I opened my phone and saw the news that storage stocks had dropped 20%, and I sat up completely
Not a storage stock
It was that DEEXE fell 25%, and BEAT dropped 24%.
A bunch of blue-chip projects are plummeting
Then guess what
The market dropped by only 3 points, but these altcoins dropped more than 20%.
What does this mean?
Liquidity panic
The crash in the Korean stock market has tightened global liquidity, and the first stop for liquidity overflow is high-risk altcoins
DEX plunged a quarter straight from its peak
BEAT is the same, down nearly 25%.
SHIB, a major meme, also fell by 11%.
Interestingly, Mantis actually rose 66%
You read that right: when the market dropped 3%, M rose 66%
What does this indicate?
The market is not panicking across the board, but rather undergoing internal switching
Funds are withdrawing from established knockoffs and memes and moving toward new narratives
KAITO also rose 9%.
AERO rose 3.8%
PUMP rose 3.2%
These are all stocks that have risen against the trend
What are they rising?
KAITO is a new narrative for AI content platforms
AERO is the DeFi core on the Base chain
PUMP is a meme launch platform
These three directions represent current market preferences—new things, good products, and revenue
So my judgment is
Today is not suitable for copying the decline rankings
Declines like DEXE -25% and BEAT -24% may be a liquidity run
Entering on the first day of liquidity panic to bottom-fish is easy to get buried
Once the panic has subsided, we can look at which stocks have fundamental support
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
Is Nvidia acting as a guarantor for OpenAI? 250 billion—that's an incredible figure. If this is true, it shows that Nvidia's investment in AI has reached a level where it is willing to pay no worries. The AI track won't cool off, and AI tokens in crypto will be led along.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Open source AI will not be banned; the previous panic selling in the sector may have been excessive. FET fell 10%, and Stacks also dropped more than 8%. If they recover after the news is triggered, these major stocks with larger declines actually have room to catch up.
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
This week's earnings reports from AI giants will determine whether the risk is on or off. If Microsoft and Meta's data exceeds expectations, the overall market sentiment will recover from panic, and at that time, the stocks that fell the hardest today will also rebound the strongest. Wait until the financial results are out before taking action.
$KAITO $AERO #涨幅榜 #跌幅榜 #山寨季Day 11 of Payback | Current account: 116U
1. Today's Trading Practice Review
Today, I traded SanDisk$SNDK intraday orders
Entry point: 1220
Take-profit level: 1320 | Stop-loss level: 1200
Profit-loss ratio: 1:2.5
2. Market macro
The core of SanDisk's recent decline is the premature overdrawing of the previous stock price, NAND price increases, and expectations of a boom in AI storage. Currently, the pace of flash memory price increases is slowing, and the market predicts that manufacturers' further expansion will bring supply pressure, limiting profit growth potential. Combined with profit-taking from high-level funds, multiple expectations resonated and pushed the stock price to continue pulling back. Key support level is 1200. Although the downward trend at the 2-hour and 4-hour levels is clear, there is still a short-term rebound and recovery. Market rumors suggest the target price has dropped to 900, and this rally requires sustained volume growth to materialize, resulting in a long cycle. There is also the possibility of institutions buying on dips.
3. Self-summary + small plans for tomorrow
1. Recent trading performance has clearly improved, with the account gradually shifting from large losses to modest gains.
2. Significant improvement in holding capacity: Previously, hourly positions were hard to maintain, but now they can hold for 4–5 hours, with the longest holding lasting about 20 hours.
3. Opening strategy: 80% long, 50% short; Reasonably control the profit-loss ratio. Accept a 3/10 loss probability and proactively suspend trading for a few hours after losing two consecutive trades. Strictly set take-profit and stop-loss settings, resolutely avoid holding positions, and abandon the mindset of heavy positions.With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching, market sentiment is clearly weak.
BTC failed to hold above 65,000, and the 66,000 resistance level remains unbroken. Trading volume has sharply contracted, and the entire market is waiting and watching for the decision.
This recent rally is merely an emotional rebound brought on by easing geopolitical tensions and cannot be considered a trend reversal. ETF funds lack momentum, with a single large daily outflow wiping out a week's net inflows, making the rebound foundation very fragile.
Seventy percent of the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged this time, with the focus on Powell's speech. Rising energy prices hide inflation rebound pressure; if the tone is hawkish, combined with upcoming GDP and PCE economic data, macroeconomic negatives could easily impact the market.
Key support is at 62,500; breaking below this would invalidate the rebound structure, with 60,000 as the critical defense level below.
Options positioning reveals the market's indecision: not fearing a short-term sharp drop, but still pessimistic about the medium to long-term trend.
The market was supposed to choose a direction on Wednesday, but it has weakened prematurely. During this consolidation phase, avoid blindly taking heavy positions.Microsoft Q4 Real Test: How Much Cash Can $627 Billion RPO Convert Into?
Only the final observation window remains before the official FY2026 Q4 release after the U.S. stock market closes on July 29. The market can easily be distracted by Azure's growth rate, but I want to first focus on a huge and easily misinterpreted figure: the previous quarter's commercial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which reached $627 billion, a 99% year-over-year increase.
RPO is not this quarter's revenue, nor is it cash. Microsoft explained in the Q3 earnings call that the average duration of RPO, including OpenAI, is about two and a half years, with approximately 25% expected to be recognized as revenue in the next twelve months; excluding OpenAI, commercial orders grew 7%, but including OpenAI, commercial orders actually declined 4%. This difference reminds us not to treat a large long-term contract as immediate operational momentum for the quarter.
For this earnings report, I will break down RPO into three steps. First, check whether core commercial orders excluding OpenAI remain healthy to avoid growth distortion from a single client or ultra-long contracts. Second, see if the short-term recognizable portion is increasing, as it is closer to revenue in the next twelve months. Third, verify whether operating cash flow and deferred revenue keep pace. Last quarter, operating cash flow was $46.7 billion, and free cash flow was $15.8 billion; the gap reflects high capital expenditures, which is exactly the area to track most closely during the AI cycle.
The product side also needs cross-verification. In Q3, Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 20 million, with M365 Commercial Cloud revenue growing 19%; GitHub Copilot was used by nearly 140,000 organizations, with enterprise subscribers nearly tripling year-over-year. These are the disclosed figures from the previous quarter. For Q4, the key is whether seat growth can translate into ARPU, usage, and gross margin, rather than just looking at user counts.
If Q4 shows "RPO rising again, Azure meeting targets, and cash flow keeping up," it means the transmission between long-term contracts and actual consumption remains smooth; if RPO looks good but the short-term recognition ratio declines and cash flow is pressured, then valuation enthusiasm should be downgraded. This is not bearish on Microsoft but rather a clear distinction among orders, revenue, and cash at three different stages. Before the official results are released, I will not cite any unofficial forecasts nor treat last quarter's management guidance as completed.
RPO also requires attention to contract duration. When the average term lengthens, the total amount can increase rapidly, but recent revenue conversion may not keep pace; conversely, improvements in short-term RPO and deferred revenue are closer to visible revenue. If the financial statements do not fully break down these figures, the limitations should be noted in the text rather than estimating a precise conversion rate independently.
Additionally, Microsoft's adjusted figures last quarter excluded the impact of OpenAI investments. If the official results provide both GAAP and non-GAAP figures, I will present both side by side, explaining the adjustments rather than only choosing the seemingly better version. Investment income, foreign exchange, and tax rates may affect net profit, but the core judgment remains focused on operating profit and cash flow. The purpose of this approach is to reduce misjudgments caused by headlines, not to pursue a single "good or bad" conclusion.$HYPE 📊 **HYPE 速评 — 多空在 $57 拉锯，VC 大撤退是最大变量**
🔥 **现价 $57.25-57.38**，24h 跌约 2%，距 6/2 的 ATH **$75.52** 已回撤 **24%**。排名 #9，市值 **$144.7 亿**，30 天跌了 9.5%，但 200 天仍涨 **118%**。
⚠️ 这波下跌的核心推手不是基本面，是 **VC 撤质押**。7/24 Paradigm 撤了 2,920 万枚 HYPE（约 **$1.7 亿**），两天前 Multicoin 也撤了 196 万枚（约 **$1.2 亿**），合计 $2.91 亿。虽然 Multicoin 说「只是换钱包不是卖」，但市场不信——HYPE 直接从 $60+ 砸到 $57。
关键时间点：unstaking 有 **7 天锁定期**，7 月初撤的币 7 月底才可转出。再加上 **8/6 还有一次解锁**，短期供给压力不容忽视。
📉 技术面：4 小时级别从 $72.97 高点一路下行，$58.16 不是底。$62-63.5 是强阻力，反弹到那被摁住的概率大。
🟢 但中长线逻辑不差：
- Hyperliquid Strategies 向 SEC 提交 S-1，要募 **$10 亿** 买更多 HYPE，目前已持有 1260 万枚 HYPE + $3 亿现金
- RWA 交易量已占平台 **52%**，预计 2027 年到 75%——原油、白银、标普 500 都在上面交易
- 预测市场上线，质押 $3000 万 HYPE 就能开市场，拿 50% 手续费
- HYPE 销毁提案在投票中，如果通过直接烧掉 Aid Fund 全部代币
- 平台 2025 年收入 **$8.73 亿**，占 DeFi 永续合约 OI 的 **59%+**
🎯 总结：短期压在 VC 撤资 + 解锁阴云下，$57 是当前多空分界线。跌破 $57 → 看 $55 → $52。守住 $57 且 FOMC 偏鸽 → 反弹先看 $60-62。
**和之前 BEAT/HYPE 那次分析相比**，HYPE 的基本面其实更强了（RWA 数据、SEC 募资、预测市场），但 VC 撤退这个变量太大了——$2.91 亿的 HYPE 如果真砸出来，短期内谁都接不住。Multicoin 说不会卖，那就盯着链上，看这些币 7 天锁定期后到底动不动。$BTC Strategy is shifting its focus to cash reserves
MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the filing) has paused its Bitcoin holdings for the fifth consecutive week, marking a shift in its strategic focus to liquidity management rather than immediate expansion. The company sold approximately $544.5 million of its own shares to build dollar reserves, which now total $3.75 billion, enough to cover a 2.1-year dividend obligation. Based on an average purchase cost of $75,476 per Bitcoin, the company's current Bitcoin holdings face significant unrealized losses due to prices approaching $64,800.
For investors, this shows that even aggressive corporate balance sheets prioritize balance sheet safety and debt repayment ability, rather than buying on dips when prices fall below breakeven. Management remains confident, noting that liquidation risk only occurs when Bitcoin plunges to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, but this pause indicates a prudent capital allocation strategy during periods of price stagnation.#波动雷达：币种异动观察
今天上午，韩国股市又熔断了。KOSPI指数开盘暴跌5.3%，随后跌幅迅速扩大至8%，触发熔断机制，交易暂停20分钟。这是韩国股市今年以来第八次触发熔断。同一时间，日本股市也未能幸免，日经225指数跌超4%。
导火索只有一个——半导体又被砸了。
📉 导火索：AI“循环融资”疑云压垮芯片股
这次下跌的直接原因是市场对AI资本开支“循环融资”模式的担忧再次升温。
· 巨额交易的隐忧：有消息称英伟达正参与总额可能超过7500亿美元的AI基础设施合作。市场担忧这种模式高度依赖下游客户的融资能力，一旦融资环境生变，整个AI开支链条都将面临收缩风险。
· 龙头股遭重挫：这种担忧导致隔夜美股半导体板块大跌。作为全球半导体风向标，英伟达（NVIDIA）周一收跌4.99%，市值被苹果反超。费城半导体指数盘中一度跌近5%。
🇰🇷 韩国：存储双雄领跌，再次熔断
作为全球存储芯片重镇，韩国股市受到最直接的冲击：
· KOSPI指数：开盘暴跌5.3%，随后跌幅扩大至8%，报6212.26点，触发熔断。
· SK海力士：股价暴跌10%-11%，其美股ADR周一已跌破发行价。
· 三星电子：股价暴跌8%-9%。
🇯🇵 日本：科技股重挫，跌幅扩大
日本股市同样被半导体产业链拖累：
· 日经225指数：跌超4%，逼近62000点关口。
· 铠侠（Kioxia）：作为NAND闪存巨头，在东京股市一度暴跌18%。
🧐 背后：AI投资的“信仰”在动摇
表面看是财报引发的震荡，但深层原因更值得警惕——市场对AI的定价逻辑可能正在发生改变。
过去两年，“AI”就是一张免死金牌，公司只要跟AI沾边，巨额资本开支总能被市场解读为利好。但谷歌、特斯拉财报已经显示，市场开始拷问“烧钱何时能换来利润”。
英伟达所代表的AI硬件链条，本质上是一个“越赚钱越烧钱”的模式。一旦市场开始质疑“巨额投入是否能转化为持续利润”，整个AI叙事都可能面临重估。
💎 韩国熔断 ≠ 机会
今年以来，韩国股市已熔断8次。对于加密市场而言，这至少传递了两个信号：
1. AI叙事的松动正在从美股向全球扩散。
2. 全球风险偏好在下降。 当机构开始从半导体这类核心资产撤离时，风险资产整体都面临压力。
$NVDA $SNDK I couldn't sleep at 3 a.m., constantly thinking about this matter
The South Korean stock market fell 8%, and Japan fell 4%.
How will US stock futures move tonight?
SK Hynix's ADR has already fallen below its issue price, hitting a new low just days after listing
Then guess what
Bitcoin also fell to 63,115
But the drop wasn't much, just 3 points
What does this indicate?
The linkage between BTC and Asian stock markets is deepening, but the decline is noticeably smaller than that of the stock market
Is this a form of desensitization, or is it just lagging?
I think it's desensitization
Look at the contract data
Binance's Bitcoin contract open interest is $18.9 billion, Bybit $9.5 billion, and Hyperliquid $7.4 billion
This number is similar to yesterday, with no large-scale liquidation or order cancellations
This shows that the bulls haven't been completely liquidated, and the bears haven't increased their positions significantly
Everyone was watching and waiting
Why wait and see?
Because the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision early Thursday morning
This is the real big thing this week
The sharp drop in the Korean stock market is actually not that closely related to the crypto market
People panic because "What if US stocks also fall?"
But what if the US stock market stabilizes tonight?
Citrini analysts say the sell-off in semiconductor stocks like ASML has been excessive
The market has overreacted to China's DUV progress in this matter
If institutions think the same, U.S. stocks may open lower and move higher tonight
Then BTC will rebound accordingly
So my judgment is
Tonight's US stock market performance will determine whether BTC continues to touch 62,000 or returns to 6,400I dug up an address from a giant whale and saw that he did something today that I couldn't understand
Arthur Hayes has started buying ETH again
This time, there are 3,298 coins, equivalent to over 6 million US dollars
This is already the 7,212th ETH he has bought since July 15
Then guess what
When he bought it, ETH was still falling, from 1981 to 1868
If this isn't bottom-fishing, then what is?
Strangely, on the other side, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
Four hours ago
Two whales are simultaneously absorbing ETH
One is buying from the open market, the other is transferring from custodians
What does this indicate?
Smart money is quietly accumulating ETH
You know Arthur Hayes, right?
Founder of BitMEX, recognized as a veteran in the market
He never buys randomly
The fact that he bought ETH itself was a signal
And his buying pace was quite interesting—not a shuttle at once, but building positions in batches
Since July 15, there have been 7,212 of them
On average, it amounts to several hundred per day
This pace shows that he is not speculating in the short term, but bullish on ETH's mid-term trend
ETH is currently priced at 1868, nearly 6% below its high of 1981
Arthur Hayes bought at this position, indicating he thought the price was reasonable
On the other side, BitMine received 7,500 ETH from BitGo
BitGo is a custodian, and these transfers are usually used on the chainDamn...
A 26-year-old at Zhifu Management Services Ltd. embezzled HKD 50 million to buy double-leveraged long positions on SK Hynix through Southern Eastspring ETF 😂
ETF (7709) shows a book loss of 150 million. On July 20, he was arrested on suspicion of theft. The position remains open. Zhifu Securities has issued a statement distancing itself.
Everyone in Central Hong Kong is watching the 150 million case.
What I’m watching is another number: January 9 to July 20.
-
A 26-year-old trader allegedly embezzled HKD 50 million from the company as margin, used financing and leverage to buy double-leveraged long SK Hynix ETF through Southern Eastspring, with a book loss of 150 million, and was arrested on suspicion of theft on July 20.
But this ETF only peaked at HKD 193.65 at the end of June, its all-time high.
That means in these seven months, for more than six months,
he was probably making money all along.
He didn’t lose right away.
He won for a long time first, then lost.
This is the harshest part of the whole story.
Losing money never makes people stop; winning does.
The first time he moved money, he made a profit. The second time, he dared to move more.
The account numbers jumped every day. What he thought wasn’t that he was committing a crime, but that he could cover it soon and even make more profit.
Winning gives a rationalization for crossing the line.
When the market reversed, he had no way out.
Closing the position meant admitting guilt; not closing still left hope.
So he could only hold on.
About leverage, most people miss a layer.
Margin financing is the first layer.
Double-leveraged ETF is the second layer.
There’s a third layer many don’t know about.
Leveraged ETFs rebalance daily.
They promise double the daily return, not double over a period.
Meaning in a choppy market, even if the underlying stays flat, your NAV slowly bleeds.
The more volatile the market, the greater the decay.
So this ETF dropping from 193.65 to 52.58, a drop over 72%, is not simply twice the underlying’s drop.
He thought he was running double leverage.
In reality, there’s another layer of leverage silently draining value.
We’re too familiar with this script.
It plays out daily in crypto, just without suits.
Small wins, then add positions, then leverage up, then borrow money, and finally everyone asks the same question: how could he lose his mind?
He didn’t lose his mind.
He was pushed step by step to a dead end by those earlier wins.
One more chilling detail:
That position hasn’t been forcibly closed yet.
He’s already in custody, but the position is still bleeding out there.
No one knows the final loss now.
The issue was only discovered during the company’s audit and account review. The similarly named Zhifu Securities has issued a statement distancing itself, saying the person involved is not their employee.
Peace, not here to blame anyone.
Just want to say one thing:
The scariest thing about leverage is never that it magnifies your losses, but that it first magnifies your gains, making you feel like a genius just when you still have time to stop 🙂Entered for 100 dollars, now it's 10,000 dollars—I'm completely stunned
No, I got it backwards
The account shrank from its peak. When I woke up in the morning and saw BTC had dropped to 63,115, my mindset was a bit shaken
But on closer thought, this drop isn't actually that scary
BTC dropped from a high of 65,750 to 63,100, leaving only $2,600 to recover
Then guess what
A drop of more than 3 points would have been nothing in the usual pullback of previous bull markets
But today, the context is different
South Korea's KOSPI fell 8%, Nikkei dropped 4%
SK Hynix's ADR broke directly below the plate
This is a systemic panic in Asian stock markets, not a problem for crypto itself
BTC's movement today is a typical passive follow-up trend
Look at the trading volume—it's not large, which means institutions aren't panicking to sell
The real interesting is Arthur Hayes
He bought another 3,298 ETH today, bringing his total to 7,212 ETH this month
He is bottom-fishing against the trend
From a technical perspective, BTC has support at the 63,000 level
In the past few weeks, I also repeatedly tested this range
If it breaks below 63,000, the next support is at 62,000
But I don't think so
Because tonight's performance in the US stock market is the key
Asia has fallen, and if US stocks stabilize, BTC can rebound
So my judgment is
Near 63,000 is the short-term bottom area
No need to cut losses at this level; wait for the US stock market to open and see the direction
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The interest rate decision early Thursday morning was the biggest variable this week. Castle Securities said Walsh might unexpectedly raise rates, but the probability is low. If the market remains unchanged, it will first fall and then rise. If the hawks take a stance, BTC may test 62,000 again.
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
The performance of AI giants during the US earnings season directly determines the risk-on sentiment. If Microsoft and Meta report well, the market will recover from panic. Once they stabilize, BTC and the entire crypto market will also stabilize.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
The cooling of expectations for the ban on open-source AI is positive for the entire technology and AI narrative. If the AI sector improves, AI tokens in crypto will also benefit. FET fell 10%, and if sentiment reverses, there may actually be room for a catch-up gain.
$BTC $ETH #技术分析 #美联储 #支撑位I opened my phone and saw that the Korean stock market had dropped by 8%, and I sat up completely
No, what exactly happened in South Korea?
SK Hynix's ADR fell below its issue price, hitting a new low
Nikkei also fell 4%, with Kioxia plunging 18%
Then guess what
BTC then fell to 63,115, down more than 3 points
But I actually find it a bit interesting here
South Korea's KOSPI fell 8%, triggering the sidecar mechanism, and programmatic trading was immediately suspended
This is a circuit breaker-level plunge
In this situation, where will the funds go?
Historical data tells me that when capital flees the Korean stock market, Upbit's trading volume surges
Bitcoin's premium in South Korea will also rebound
Because Korean retail investors are too familiar with crypto, the stock market won't let them make money, so they rush into crypto
Today's logic is simple
Asian stock markets plunge -> funds seek new exports -> crypto is a natural receiving pool
BTC fell in the short term, but in the medium term, this is actually an opportunity for incremental funds to enter the market
Castle Securities said Wash may unexpectedly raise interest rates this week
This is what truly needs attention
If rate hike expectations are ignited, all risk assets will come under pressure
But on the flip side, if rates really do increase, it means the economy is overheating and funds need to hedge safely
BTC's logic as digital gold is actually stronger
So my judgment is
Today's panic in the Asian market is a passive decline, not a credibility crisis within crypto itself
The flight of South Korean funds may actually bring new liquidity to crypto
Holding steady near 63,000, waiting for the Fed to play its card on Thursday
Then I glanced at what recent hot topics were and casually chatted a bit:
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
Changxin Technology is about to go public, adding another player to the storage track. With SK Hynix falling like this, the timing for Changxin's IPO isn't very good. The competitive landscape of storage is changing, but short-term sentiment dominates everything; let's wait and see for now.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This is the real highlight of the week. Castle Securities said Wash might unexpectedly raise interest rates, and if priced in by the market, there could be another round of volatility before Friday. But I don't think there will be a rate hike; Powell isn't that bold.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Oil prices have fallen, which is good for inflation. With inflationary pressures easing, the urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates has lessened. Geopolitical risk easing + falling oil prices theoretically is a double positive for risk assets, but the market is currently dominated by panic, and the positive news will take time to transmit.
$BTC $ETH #宏观 #韩国股市 #地缘Before looking at this tweet, ask yourself a question: If all the macro events this week come to pass, are you really sure the direction will emerge?
This week is like a powder keg for the crypto and financial circles, with both bulls and bears crouching around 65,000, neither daring to pull the trigger first. The four major battlefields—Fed rate decision, non-farm payrolls, GDP, and tech giant earnings—are almost simultaneously igniting, yet the market is so quiet it feels abnormal. I just sneaked a peek at the market in the restroom; volume is deliberately shrinking, but prices seem nailed down. This kind of calm often hides a big trap set to hunt liquidity.
I always remain skeptical about the so-called "policy clarity." The market trades on expectations in advance, but expectations can twist and turn to confuse people badly. Most are now betting on a dovish rate decision and weak non-farm data, but I actually think that even if the data fits the script, Bitcoin might first spike one way then reverse sharply. In terms of volume-price relationship, without sustained volume expansion, I treat any breakout as a bull trap.
So this week I choose to stay out of the market, not to jump the gun or gamble. Is there anyone else like me staying out waiting for the right opportunity?
#Bitcoin #MacroWeek