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复盘本次韩国存储股崩盘，对照当年LUNA崩盘，内核高度一致：
1️⃣ 核心主体：都是韩国资产爆雷
2️⃣ 崩盘前提：完美无敌叙事，全民FOMO
3️⃣ 市场结构：散户疯狂高杠杆重仓
4️⃣ 下跌模式：信心瞬间崩塌，开启无限下跌螺旋
5️⃣ 风险级别：标的高度集中，触发系统性市场冲击
$SKHYNIX $SPCX $SNDK
历史永远押韵，泡沫从不例外。Has the AI bull bubble burst? Computing power and storage have plummeted one after another, while earnings reports have been sold off
Based on my long-term review of the market, the overall foundation for the AI bull market hasn't completely collapsed, but the valuation bubble that was purely hyped in the past two years has already been largely burst.
In the past two years, the market only dreamed of unlimited demand for AI. No matter how much money companies invest or whether profits are realized, computing chips and storage hardware have skyrocketed, and doubling stock prices has become the norm. But now, the criteria for evaluating funds have completely changed. Endlessly burning money to build computing data centers is no longer accepted. Whenever cloud providers raise their capital expenditure plans, their stock prices immediately come under pressure and fall—Google is the most direct example.
The entire industry chain is particularly prominent. In the offline spot market, HBM memory and enterprise-grade hard drive capacity have been locked in by cloud companies until after 2028, and physical demand remains strong; The secondary market, however, anticipated that large-scale capacity expansion in 2027 would trigger overcapacity, continuously cashing out at high prices.
The sector has long been polarized: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, holding HBM orders and binding server computing power, have strong resistance to declines; SanDisk, which focuses on consumer USB drives and regular flash storage, lacked AI core support, causing its stock price to nearly halve in just one month.
It cannot be called the start of a full-blown bear market; it can only be declared the end of the mindless broad rally. Only leading companies that can convert computing power investment into stable profits can continue to strengthen, while small and mid-cap marginal stocks will only keep fluctuating and weakening. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations #美联储即将公布利率决议
How much impact will it have on BTC? After reading these points, you don't have to stay up all night
At 2 a.m., the Fed's decision was implemented. There's no need to watch the whole press conference to stay long; just focus on the core logic. Right now, BTC's fundamentals are "ETF funds supporting the floor + macro interest rates pushing the ceiling." The decision only changes short-term volatility and cannot change the medium-term pattern.
First, give the most practical judgment
This decision is unlikely to break out of a one-sided rally; most likely, it will still swing within a consolidating range:
- Downward: Since bottoming out in June, BlackRock and Fidelity's BTC ETFs have continued to see net inflows, with institutions quietly buying shares at low levels, and strong support for deep declines;
- Upward: The high interest rate environment has not substantially changed, incremental funds are insufficient, and without easing signals, it is difficult to break through the resistance level above.
2. The three outcomes correspond to the crypto market trends of $BTC and $ETH
1. Neutral Leaning Hawkish (Most Likely)
Not raising rates, continuing to stubbornly keep the option to raise rates.
→ BTC pulled back slightly, which is an emotional sell-off. Dropping in is a window for phased positioning, so there's no need to panic.
2. Marginal dovish bias
Softened wording, acknowledging easing inflationary pressures.
→ Trigger a rebound, with the potential to break out of the recent consolidation box, but don't expect a direct bullish move; take profits when the rebound reaches resistance levels.
3. Unexpected rate hikes (low probability)
Directly raising rates by 25 basis points.
→ Short-term rapid insertion is a black swan shock. Leverage positions should be reduced immediately to hedge risk. There's no need to blindly cut losses in spot stocks; emotions will recover after digestion.
3. Practical tips for coin users
1. BTC and ETH contract players will reduce leverage tonight; don't bet overnight; inserting a pin and liquidating positions only takes a few minutes;
2. Long-term spot traders should do what they need to do. As long as the halving cycle and institutional allocation logic are intact, there's no need to recklessly trade with daily price swings;
3. If you want to enter, don't rush to buy at the bottom. Wait for the decision to be finalized and the trend stabilizes, then buy in batches. Buying with certainty is more important than buying at the bottom.$BTC ETFs saw four consecutive outflows, $ETH saw inflows for two consecutive days, showing polarized trends
Let's look at the numbers first.
July 27–28,
BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $61.3 million;
ETH spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $21.1 million. Looking at just the past two days, ETH's capital performance has clearly been stronger.
But if you extend the window to July 23, 24, 27, and 28:
BTC ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $526.5 million, marking four consecutive trading days of negative losses;
ETH ETFs still saw a net outflow of $23.3 million over four days, though they have only turned positive in the last two days.
Is this "institutions fully swapping BTC into ETH"? Or is it that BTC is under more obvious redemption pressure, and ETH is experiencing short-term relative support?
ETF capital flows reflect the net creation and redemption of fund units, not a complete map of all institutional holdings. To confirm the rotation, at least three things need to be seen:
ETH inflows continue and amplify
ETH/BTC remained relatively strong, confirmed by price and trading volume
Even after the FOMC took effect, BTC flows still cannot be restored.
My current conclusion: funds are diverging, and the trend has yet to be confirmed. Rather than chasing the simple narrative of "BTC loses, ETH wins," it's better to continue watching whether capital flows form continuity. #FinancialReportObserver: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Submit Reports Tonight
AI Earnings Night: Crypto Market Sits on the Jury for the First Time
Tonight, three AI giants are submitting their reports simultaneously. Microsoft and Meta after market close, followed by Amazon. Alphabet has already been hit once by a capital expenditure increase, and the Nasdaq 100 is in a technical correction. So these three earnings reports tonight are not just answering questions—they are defining the questions themselves.
The same question they are answering tonight is: Is AI investment a promissory note that cannot be cashed, or a long-term business that has already been locked in?
The last to answer this was SK Hynix. After reporting, their stock initially fell, but during the call they added, “long-term agreements usually lock in for five years,” and the stock turned positive. The market is not ignoring explanations; it only listens to one explanation—“Can you clearly explain what will happen five years from now?”
Tonight, the answers from these three are not just for Wall Street. They are for the entire pricing system of "computing power assets." AI chips, data centers, cloud services, computing power protocols, mining machines—they all share the same value logic: Is computing power an asset that can be locked in and priced long-term? The rise and fall of AI hardware stocks over the past year essentially reflects votes on different answers to this question. The wording from Microsoft and Meta tonight will directly determine the direction of this vote next quarter.
For the crypto market, tonight is the first time sitting on the jury.
Traditional markets are waiting for earnings to answer "When will AI be profitable?" while the crypto market has been answering another question from day one: "Is anyone actually using this?" Address counts, transaction volumes, and protocol revenues are its real-time earnings reports. Traditional earnings reports have a 90-day lag, while on-chain data updates every minute. When Wall Street uses data from 90 days ago to judge "Does AI have a future?" the crypto market has long been pricing with real-time data.
This is not a matter of right or wrong. It’s a matter of two different time scales.
Capital expenditure is a bet three years out, earnings reports settle the past 90 days, and on-chain data is the current temperature.
These three time scales overlap tonight.
If all three maintain high capital expenditure guidance, the long-term narrative for AI infrastructure is endorsed. But stock prices may continue to be under pressure—because Alphabet has already demonstrated that the market currently does not reward spending. If capital expenditure increases are combined with vague return timelines, stocks fall first. This is not a problem with AI demand; it’s that the valuation transition period is not over.
If any of the guidance is lowered, the chain reaction in AI hardware stocks will be more worth watching than the earnings themselves. The semiconductor, storage, and Nvidia sectors will be repriced, and projects in the crypto market tied to the "computing power narrative"—decentralized computing power protocols, AI Agent infrastructure, miner-related assets—will passively accept an adjusted valuation anchor.
Tonight’s ledger, you read yours, I read mine.
But the gap between 90 days and 1 minute will eventually be discovered by the market.
Time will stand on the side of higher-frequency pricing. In this game, SK Hynix made a seemingly brilliant sacrifice move, but it allowed the opponent to sense a midgame trap.
The financial report was supposed to be the check on the ledger, with a 557% profit increase like a double bishop checkmate—spectacular but incomplete. The expected gap of 45 trillion KRW was a "vacant" move on the board, causing the market to suddenly lose rhythm amid a winning position. But a true strategist does not panic over the gain or loss of a single move: the mass shipment of HBM4 is like advancing the rear wing five steps ahead, forging a copper wall and iron fortress with a five-year supply contract. The opponent (spot market) thought they caught a "blunder" on the board, not realizing this was a deliberate sacrifice of the e4 pawn to gain a semi-open d-file and retain deep strategic forces.
XSOXL, this leveraged pawn, now stands at the crossfire between white and black squares. Samsung’s roughly 6% rebound is like a timely bishop-for-knight exchange—seemingly a piece trade, but actually clearing the c1-h6 diagonal. When SK Hynix’s management says "AI spending will not slow down," they are actually announcing that they have already foreseen the entire sequence of piece exchanges from midgame to endgame. Analysts fixated on HBM’s share being lower than peers are merely obsessed with local tactical combinations, ignoring the entire pawn chain structure on the king’s wing.
As for that single-day 4% bullish candlestick? It was just a probing pawn push before the endgame. True chess players always advance their rook deep into the seventh rank when the opponent thinks the "pace is slowing." #SKHynixRecordMiss #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
I'm Cige, and NVIDIA and Google are using their own credits to endorse AI data center debt.
Nvidia negotiated to provide OpenAI with about $250 billion in financial guarantees to support SoftBank's 10-giga-watt data center project in Ohio, with total project costs possibly exceeding $500 billion. Google has agreed to pay up to $44 billion in third-party data center lease payments in the event of tenant defaults, a significant increase from the previous $6.5 billion.
The supplier financing chain of "investing in customers, binding orders, re-guaranteeing debts" is getting longer and longer. Chip giants use their own creditworthiness to endorse customers' data center debts, and the inflation of off-balance-sheet commitments is becoming one of the main focuses of tech giants' earnings seasons.
The market's reaction to this was a direct sell-off. The increasingly long AI infrastructure financing chain essentially packages forward AI demand into debt and sells it to the market. If AI demand falls short of expectations, credit risks along the entire chain will be concentratedly exposed. Before the U.S. market opened, tech stocks were collectively under pressure, as the market was pricing in this credit expansion.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, tech stocks' concerns about AI financing models will suppress risk appetite, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, may be dragged down. Tech stocks fell, and the crypto market was under pressure simultaneously. But in the medium term, capital spending on AI infrastructure is still accelerating: Nvidia's $250 billion and Google's $44 billion are burning fiat credit and reinforcing BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset. Every time this magnitude of debt expands, it serves as a reminder to the market where the boundaries of dollar credit lie.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic released a report on July 29: The ruble stablecoin A7A5, backed by Russian banks, completed over $100 billion in cross-border transfers in its first year of launch, with its core purpose being to evade Western sanctions; After joint sanctions from the US, UK, and EU were implemented, the token's value plummeted by 96%. Although the A7A5 smart contract can still transfer funds normally, the entire underlying network has been placed on the sanctions list. Exchanges rely on on-chain analysis tools to accurately identify related fund flows, but related assets face interception and freezing risks, causing deposit/withdrawal and exchange channels to be basically paralyzed. 🚨 Conflict: Many people have a misconception: as long as the contract is not closed, the token will always be usable! The A7A5 case shatters all illusions. Even if the public chain code cannot be shut down, fiat channels, exchange liquidity, and clearing channels are all controlled by centralized service providers. In the context of geopolitical sanctions, tokens that focus on "resistance to censorship and circumventing regulation" carry extremely high risks. This news will not directly impact BTC and ETH markets, but it will continue to strengthen expectations of global crypto regulation and tightening on-chain risk controls, which will affect institutional capital entry sentiment in the medium to long term! I. In-depth Analysis of the Core of the Event 1. Project Background A7A5 was indirectly supported and issued by the sanctioned Russian state-owned bank Promsvyaz Bank (PSB), pegged to the ruble. Its original design goal was to bypass SWIFT and cross-border sanctions between Europe and the US, serving cross-border capital flows for Russian enterprises; In its initial launch, it relies on off-exchange and regional exchanges to achieve hundreds of billions in capital circulation. 2. The core logic of the collapse#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
Tonight, the U.S. stock market faces a real "AI big test."
The three tech giants Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will successively release their latest earnings reports, and the market's main concern is no longer how much profit they made, but whether AI can continue to support high valuations.
For Microsoft, the focus is on Azure cloud business and the commercialization progress of Copilot; for Meta, it's whether the advertising business can cover the continuously growing AI capital expenditures; for Amazon, it's about AWS growth and whether generative AI is starting to generate revenue.
For the crypto community, the impact of these three earnings reports may be greater than many expect.
If the three companies exceed expectations and continue to increase AI investments, market risk appetite is likely to recover, and AI concept tokens such as FET, TAO, RENDER may attract capital attention, while BTC and ETH could also benefit from the overall sentiment improvement.
But if the earnings fall short of expectations, or capital expenditures continue to grow significantly without visible profit realization, the market may worry again about AI valuations being too high. While tech stocks come under pressure, the crypto market may also experience a short-term pullback.
Tonight is not just about seeing the three companies' report cards, but about verifying whether the AI bull market can continue.
For traders, rather than betting in advance, it is better to wait until all earnings reports and the Federal Reserve decision are out, then follow the trend.
$BTC $ETH Many traders are asking the same core question: Has Bitcoin's current bear market come to an end, and has the cycle bottom been confirmed? The absolute low point of the market can only be seen in hindsight. However, we can use on-chain chip cost data to judge whether the market is nearing the end of the bear market and whether the tokens have been fully exchanged. The core tool of this analysis is the STH/LTH Cost Ratio (short-term holder cost ÷ long-term holder cost). Concept Popularization: STH short-term holders: holding for less than 155 days, representing recent speculative capital inflows; LTH long-term holders: holding for more than 155 days, representing the overall holding cost of the belief-type group holding coins. During a bear market downturn, short-term holders who entered at high prices keep cutting losses and exiting, causing the market to undergo a massive chip migration. The average holding costs of both new and old holders keep converging—this phenomenon is called cost convergence. When the average cost of short-term holders falls to match that of long-term holders, and the ratio approaches 1, it often indicates that selling pressure has been fully released. 1. Three Rounds of Historical Bear Market Backtesting: No New Lows Seen After Cost Overlap We reviewed the complete bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022, using the STH/LTH Ratio ≤1 as the criterion for cost convergence and observing subsequent market performance. Historical samples show that after the indicator fell back to the 1 or lower range, Bitcoin never broke below the lowest point of this cycle. This indicates that the STH/LTH ratio is ≤ 1, or moreOil prices are rising again!
Trump's latest statement said the U.S. will respond militarily to Iran.
After the announcement, US stock futures retreated, international oil prices surged rapidly, and Brent crude climbed back above $87.
Why is the market so sensitive!
Because once geopolitical conflicts escalate, the biggest impact is often not on the stock market, but on energy.
Rising oil prices will push up global inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, rising inflation expectations will affect the market's judgment of the Fed's subsequent policies.
For risk assets, this means uncertainty increases again.
More importantly, this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
On one hand, geopolitical risks are pushing oil prices higher; on the other, the market is waiting for interest rate results.
With these two factors combined, market volatility this week is highly likely to be significant.
What really needs to be paid attention is not who says what, but whether funds begin to flow continuously into safe-haven assets.
Only when capital flows change can market trends truly shift.兄弟们，今晚本来焦点全在美联储FOMC，结果特朗普抢了镜。 就在刚刚，特朗普正式表态：美国将对伊朗采取打击，以回应在约旦针对美国目标的攻击。这不只是口头警告。过去48小时，美伊已经从“外交窗口”直接切换回“军事行动”模式——伊朗向约旦美军基地发射了弹道导弹，美军与沙特联手对伊拉克境内亲伊朗民兵实施了精准打击。特朗普前一天还在白宫会见以色列总理内塔尼亚胡讨论“如何对付伊朗”，几小时后导弹就来了。 市场立刻用脚投票。 布伦特原油短线暴力拉升，突破87美元/桶，近1小时涨幅2.06%，WTI原油涨幅达5%。标普500和纳斯达克指数期货同步转跌，纳斯达克期货跌幅一度达1%。油价上涨意味着通胀预期重新升温，而市场本来就在纠结美联储今晚会不会加息，现在又多了一个变数。 对加密市场意味着什么？ 短期是压力。 地缘冲突+油价暴涨+美股期货下跌，这三件事凑在一起，对BTC和ETH这类风险资产的短期情绪是压制——交易员在FOMC前原本就在减仓，现在又多了一个理由继续观望。BTC横在64000左右，ETH在1900附近摇摇欲坠，如果油价持续拉升，风险偏好在决议前会进一步收缩。 中期是两种可能。 如果冲突升级Bloodbath 53%! Smart money is crazily shorting stocks—where exactly are SNDK and MU?
When it drops to the point where you don't dare to buy, it's often not the bottom; When everyone thought there was still room to drop, the bottom was just over halfway through.
Guys, SanDisk dropped from 2354 to 1028, halved in one month; Micron fell from 1255 to 789, evaporating 35%. SK Hynix's earnings report falling short of expectations was the trigger, and the listing of China Changxin Memory was the real nuclear bomb—the market fears that China's storage capacity expansion will change the global landscape. Capital is withdrawing from Korean semiconductors and flowing back into Hong Kong stocks, known as 'old Deng stocks.'
From a technical perspective:
$SNDK Four hours: After yesterday's low of 991.91, it rebounded to 1087, with all three RSI lines showing oversold near 30. But MA7 (1099), MA25 (1153), and MA99 (1358) all dominated overhead. 1028 is the first line of defense; if it breaks, look at 897.
Smart Money Signal: SNDK long positions average cost 11.74 million, unrealized loss 7.54 million; Average short cost is 12.74, unrealized profit is 43 million.
$MU Four hours: After a low of 757.01, it rebounded to 817, with an RSI of only 28.88, indicating extreme oversoldness. Above MA7 is at 856.
Smart Money Signal: MU bulls average cost 8.3 million, floating loss 650,000; Short positions average cost 8.87 million, unrealized profit 9.8 million. The bears won decisively.
Operating Approach:
Short strategy: Short SNDK rebound between 1100-1120. MU rebounded at 840-850, short position.
Personal view: A post-market rally in the storage sector does not necessarily mean a reversal. SanDisk's August 5 earnings report is the real dead end—Wall Street expects revenue of $8.42 billion, while the company's guidance cap is only $8.25 billion. Exceeding expectations is expected; falling short is a waterfall. Right-side trading is the true survival rule for high leverage.
Remember: don't bottom-fish, wait for stabilization; Don't chase short sellers; wait for a rebound.
Your likes and shares are my motivation to keep updating! Comments section posts #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员 "Waiting for stabilization" or "Waiting for a rebound": Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver their #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期 tonight, with storage stocks experiencing sharp fluctuations Oil prices have surged again, and BTC and ETH may not be over in this round of decline
BTC fell below $63,000 yesterday, and ETH fell back to a low of $1,865. Many people think this is just a normal pullback, but I believe the market is truly worried not about technical aspects, but about new changes in the macro environment.
In the past two days, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, with international oil prices strengthening once more.
What does rising oil prices mean?
This means transportation costs, energy costs, and business production costs may rise again, all of which will ultimately be reflected in U.S. inflation data.
Once inflation picks up again, it will be difficult for the Fed to send easing signals.
And this is precisely the biggest risk in the market right now.
Walsh has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed's core goal remains to keep inflation stable at 2%.
This means that as long as inflation risks are not truly eliminated, even if the economy slows down, the Fed may not rush to cut rates.
So, what truly deserves attention tonight is not whether to adjust interest rates, but Walsh's judgment on future inflation and interest rate paths.
If he continues to emphasize:
Inflation remains above target;
Rising oil prices add new uncertainties;
High interest rates need to be maintained for a longer period;
In that case, the market is likely to continue interpreting it as hawkish.
For BTC and ETH, high interest rates mean US dollar liquidity remains tight, putting pressure on risk asset valuations.
From the market perspective, after BTC fell below $63,000, the bulls' defense line has started to loosen.
If no significant incremental funds enter after the meeting, BTC may continue to test $62,000, or even test the $60,000 threshold again.
Ethereum is currently near 1900, and if market sentiment worsens further, further tests around 1800 support cannot be ruled out.
My view hasn't changed:
Before the macro environment shows significant improvement, every rebound should be viewed as a rebound, rather than rushing to judge that the market has reversed.
What truly changes the trend is not a short-term rebound, but a return to easing Fed policy expectations and sustained easing of inflation risks.
Until then, I still maintained a biased mindset.
Tonight's Fed meeting and Walsh's speech are likely to determine the direction BTC and ETH will take throughout August.
If the speech remains hawkish, then there is likely still significant room for this round of decline.付鹏看空加密货币，预测价格“去年11、12月在11万美元打赌，2026年价格必定会腰斩！ 2025年11月2日，$BTC 最高约111167美元，这一天确实摸到过11万；但11月中旬已经跌向10万美元，月底约9万美元，12月大部分时间也在8万至9万美元区间。而现在BTC站在了6万3的位置，几近腰斩！ 付鹏毕业于英国雷丁大学国际证券、投资与银行学专业，早期进入雷曼兄弟，后来参与事件驱动型基金，2020年出任东北证券首席经济学家。过去几年，他靠流动性、利率和全球资产配置框架出圈，微博粉丝一度超过400万。 2026年4月，他加入新火集团担任首席经济学家。新火前身是火币科技，火币创始人李林是其单一最大股东，业务覆盖数字资产交易、资管与托管。付鹏给自己的新方向起了一个很直接的名字：FICC+C。 FICC是债券、外汇和大宗商品，C就是Crypto。 一个长期研究传统宏观的人，为什么此时进入加密金融机构？因为 $BTC 已经不再只是币圈内部定价的资产。美债收益率、美元流动性、ETF资金、企业财库和机构风险预算，都在影响它的涨跌。加密机构想服务家族办公室和专业资金，也不能继续只讲减半、共识和四年$BTC JPMorgan offers three scenario predictions for tonight's Fed decision: 1. Rate unchanged + hawkish stance (50% probability, benchmark scenario): S&P 500 flat or 0.5% drop 2. Rate unchanged + dovish stance (28% probability, optimum scenario): S&P 500 expected to rise up to 1% 3. 25 basis point rate hike (20% probability, bearish scenario): S&P 500 plunges 1.5%-2% Conflict 🚨 hook Currently, half the market funds have already defaulted to a "hold steady but hawkish" scenario! Many traders are positioning in advance for good news, but risks cannot be ignored: there is still a 20% chance of an unexpected rate hike. BTC highly linked to US tech indices, tonight's rally fully matches the tone of the speech! Do not bet heavily on a single script in advance; risk is maxed out before and after the decision is implemented, and it is safer to wait for signals to follow the trend! Three scenarios correspond to crypto market market forecasts Scenario (1): Holding interest unchanged, stance is somewhat hawkish [50% probability | Benchmark expectation] ✅ Impact analysis: The Fed remains vigilant about inflation and delays rate cut expectations, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen slightly. Risk assets are under pressure, BTC is highly likely to rally and then retreat, maintaining a range-bound movement. 📈 Market performance: BTC rebounded under pressure below 65,100, returning to a range-bound consolidation. Fake investors are following the market to diverge, making broad-based rallies unlikely. Scenario (2): Interest rate unchanged, dovish stance [28% probability | Bullish optimal scenario] ✅ Impact analysis: Signals of cooling inflation, strong expectations for rate cuts this yearJiang Zhuoer: Market expectations for Fed rate hike are divided, 65% expect no hike
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Labit mining pool, tweeted that about 5 hours before the Fed's rate decision, the market remains clearly divided on whether there will be a rate hike, with about 65% expecting no hike and 35% expecting a hike. The level of disagreement is rare in recent years. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but Powell may signal a hawkish stance, causing the crypto market to first short squeeze then sell off. He also noted that Bitcoin has fallen after the past 8 FOMC meetings.#美联储即将公布利率决议
Don't just focus on "rate hike or not" tonight: the real direction for US stocks and BTC is decided by these 3 signals
Tonight might be the easiest night this week for a false breakout
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM. Many are only waiting for the final rate result, but in my view, the real determinants of the Nasdaq and BTC direction are the following three signals
First, whether the statement continues to emphasize inflation risks
Keeping rates unchanged does not necessarily mean a positive signal. If the statement is clearly hawkish, the market will immediately reprice the subsequent path. The first to react is usually not stocks, but the 2-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar
Second, whether tech stocks can hold up when Treasury yields rise
If yields rise but QQQ does not drop significantly, it means funds are still willing to take on tech stock risk, which is actually a bullish sign
But if yields just start to rise and the Nasdaq quickly plunges, it means valuations are already very sensitive. Chasing tech stocks at this point has poor risk-reward
Third, who BTC is following
The most important observation tonight is not how much BTC rises, but its relative strength compared to the Nasdaq and the dollar:
If the Nasdaq strengthens and the dollar falls, but BTC does not follow, it indicates weak internal support in the crypto market.
If the Nasdaq is volatile and the dollar does not weaken significantly, but BTC leads in recovering losses, that is a true sign of strength.
Current status: staying out, not betting on rate results in advance
Scenario A: Bullish
The Fed signals no further hawkish shift, the dollar and 2-year yield fall together, QQQ and BTC stabilize after the first wave of volatility.
Simulated strategy: build a 10% observation position first, confirm it’s not a one-minute spike, then consider increasing to 20%.
Scenario B: Bearish
The dollar and 2-year yield rise rapidly, QQQ breaks below the first low after the announcement, and BTC underperforms the Nasdaq.
Simulated strategy: do not catch the first drop; wait for a failed rebound, then build a 10% simulated short observation position.
Scenario C: Range trading
Rates rise first after announcement, then reverse during the press conference, or vice versa.
Simulated strategy: skip the first move. Before a stable direction forms, being out of the market is also a position.
The biggest risk tonight is not choosing the wrong direction, but mistaking emotion for trend when the first big green or red candle appears.
My principle is simple: watch the dollar and US Treasuries first, then the Nasdaq, and finally confirm BTC. If the three don’t align, heavy positions are not justified.
If the first wave tonight suddenly surges, will you chase immediately or wait until after the press conference to decide?
The above is a simulated scenario analysis, does not represent real trades, and is not investment adviceCrypto sitting at +1% heading into tonight's Fed decision and big tech earnings stacked in the same session is not conviction, it's paralysis. When catalysts of this weight land together, markets compress until forced to move, then often overshoot. The tape is more uncertain than the price action suggests.
SK Hynix posting a record quarter but missing expectations, memory stocks swinging hard, Apple reclaiming the global top market cap over Nvidia: read together, the AI infrastructure trade is rotating, not reversing. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon tonight will confirm or deny. BTC at $64,341 tracking sideways into this is a reasonable reflection of that uncertainty, not a breakout setup.
Not financial advice.
#OKXOrbit全球最大上市比特币矿企MARA Holdings正在经历一场根本性的战略转身。 CEO Fred Thiel近期在接受采访时直言，公司正从单一的比特币挖矿企业，转向掌握土地、电力和数据中心基础设施的能源平台。与此同时，MARA在2026年第一季度大规模出售了超过2万枚比特币。 这一系列动作背后，是电力经济、债务压力和战略定位三重因素共同推动的结果。 AI的算力竞赛，本质是电力争夺战 Thiel的逻辑很直白：如果把每一度电用于AI数据中心，拿到的收益要比用于比特币挖矿高得多。根据行业数据，AI工作负载每千瓦时产生的收益约为25美元，远超比特币挖矿的回报。 电力原本就是矿企最大的运营成本。随着AI算力需求爆发式增长，电力已成为比特币矿企、云服务商、芯片公司和大模型企业争夺的核心资源。谁掌握电力，谁就掌握了定价权。 Thiel在2021年就预言矿企必须成为电力公司或与电力公司深度绑定。当时很多人嘲笑这个说法，但今天电力显然已经成为最关键的资源。MARA目前拥有超过4GW的能源容量，是数字基础设施领域最大的电力组合之一。 把电力卖给AI公司，是一笔长期稳定的生意。AI数据中心的收入通常来自与企The market considers this Federal Reserve interest rate decision to be the most uncertain one, but I personally don't think so. At least one thing is certain: a rate cut is impossible!
In the half month leading up to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, tensions between the US and Iran have been escalating, with oil prices rising from 67 at the beginning of the month to a high of 92 this month.
This undoubtedly reflects the market's concern about the escalation of the US-Iran situation, which has indeed escalated.
The surge in oil prices has again caused the market to worry about the stubbornness of inflation, which is obviously unfavorable to the Fed's interest rate policy.
Most importantly, just a few minutes ago, Trump made a statement:
The US will take action against Iran. A few days ago, he was asking for a rate cut from Powell, and now he's pushing oil prices higher, which is contradictory.
A one-sided interpretation is: on one hand, I want benefits; before the midterm elections, I can't lose public support.
For mainstream coins, there may not be the large fluctuations that everyone imagines. After all, there has been a long period of wide-range oscillation recently, with long-term holders and institutions dominating the trend, and retail investors are almost negligible.
The major volatility still lies in the US stock market and the AI series; they are currently the market's focus.
As for the global market's attention, it will focus more on core globally priced asset classes such as US bonds, the US dollar index, and gold, because these are the barometers.
The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice. #美联储即将公布利率决议 Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the ViaBTC mining pool, tweeted that about 5 hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market remains clearly divided on whether there will be a rate hike, with approximately 65% expecting no hike and 35% expecting a hike, a level of divergence rarely seen in recent years. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but Powell may signal a hawkish stance, potentially causing the crypto market to first short squeeze then liquidate longs. He also noted that Bitcoin has declined after the past 8 FOMC meetings.$SNDK US stocks turned positive before the market opened
SanDisk, which bottom-fished at noon, gains 400% unrealized profit
Asian trading sets up during the day to harvest leeks?
During the sharp drop this morning, Micron plunged over 7%
In the short term, it's more about 'leveraging time differences and information gaps' in emotional games, harvesting the trend market.
Liquidity difference: In early Asian trading, US stock index futures had thin liquidity, allowing small amounts of capital to create deep pits, making panic creation very low.
Event Dynamics: A pullback indicates that before the meeting, the main players tend to bet on "dovish" or that all negative news has been exhausted; the sharp drop is an opportunity to switch hands.Brothers, the market turmoil triggered by Korean leveraged ETFs has already reached the political level. On July 29, South Korea's Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Koo Yoon-chul, publicly apologized at a parliamentary hearing for the market turmoil triggered by leveraged ETFs, admitting that authorities should have conducted more thorough reviews before product launches. Councilor Lee Jong-wook directly rebuked him face to face: "This country has turned into a casino; these products should never be allowed to enter the market." I think this is a policy failure. Despite the apology, Koo Run-cheol still argued that leveraged ETFs are just "one of many factors" behind recent market turmoil, implying they are not the main culprit. However, South Korea's KOSPI index once plunged more than 12% on Tuesday, with retail investors forcibly liquidated 1.7 trillion won (about $1.2 billion) in a single day. Over 1.2 million leveraged accounts reached margin call thresholds, and about 320,000 to 460,000 accounts were fully liquidated, with principal wiped out and some incurred. Where is the core of policy failure? Since mid-July, South Korean regulators have introduced a series of remedial measures—raising the margin requirement for leveraged ETFs to 30 million KRW starting July 31, suspending new product listings, and discussing a cap on retail investors' leveraged exposure. But the problem is that all these measures are remedial actions after risk exposure, not preventive measures. The most fatal design flaw—the daily rebalancing mechanism of leveraged individual stock ETFs—is destined to accelerate declines during declines. This mechanism has existed since the product was designed, but only after two months on the market and causing losses of trillions of Korean won was it urgently discussed by regulators. Research on the Korean Capital Markets$SPCXB 马斯克又喊出“5-7年内登陆火星”。但这一次，市场怕是很难买账了。
为什么绝对不可能？
技术地狱没通关： 星舰在轨多次推进剂加注、重返大气层防热盾、火星精准着陆，这三关5年内全搞定？物理学不答应。
致命的深空辐射： 闭环维生系统和防护技术远未成熟，现在送人去无异于送死。
“马斯克时间”常态延期： 从FSD到Cybertruck，他的时间线向来要乘以2甚至乘以3。
为什么估值与市场预期会打折？ 过去讲宏大叙事能拉估值，但现在的资本只要现金流。火星是个毫无短期ROI的巨型资金黑洞，这种高调画饼不仅不能提振信心，反而暴露了公司未来可能面临的财务挤占风险。“狼来了”喊多了，投资者只会对虚无的PPT审美疲劳，选择获利了结。
吹票可以，但物理学不听PPT，财务报表更不相信眼泪。趋势失效条件：当资金从卖铲人逻辑转向应用端共识时，上一轮叙事结构可能面临重构 关键问题：如果 AI 叙事中的基础设施溢价被市场重新定价，加密市场中的卖铲人逻辑是否也会同步失效？ 原文核心是越南投资者分享的投资思维：人们往往关注新技术本身，但资本市场更倾向于投资支撑该技术的"卖铲人"——即那些提供基础设施或关键组件的公司，并以 AI 浪潮中 Nvidia 及整个 GPU 产业链（HBM 内存、光模块、服务器、液冷、数据中心、电力）的暴涨为例。这一逻辑在加密领域同样被反复验证，例如在 DeFi Summer 中，投资者不直接买协议代币，而是买 L1 公链或节点服务商。 从市场结构来看，当前加密市场正在经历一个关键分歧：AI 叙事在传统科技股中正从基础设施向应用层迁移，OpenAI、Anthropic 等模型公司开始商业化，而 Nvidia 的估值增速面临降速预期。如果这一趋势传导至加密市场，意味着此前围绕 AI+Depin 或 AI+公链的基础设施代币（如 RNDR、AKT、FIL 等）的溢价逻辑可能被打破。市场将重新定价：谁是真正的"卖铲人"，而谁只是借叙事炒作的工具。 偏多路径：如果 Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings reports after the U.S. stock market closes today. Based on market expectations and industry logic, Microsoft's revenue and cloud business growth are likely to meet guidance but may not exceed expectations, resulting in a neutral stock price reaction; Meta's advertising revenue is expected to grow steadily, but if capital expenditures are further raised above $150 billion, it could trigger a sell-off similar to Alphabet's "CAPEX sensitivity". The core issue has shifted from "whether AI demand exists" to "whether investments can translate into current profits." The following analysis is based on key variables:
1. Microsoft Earnings: Cloud Growth Threshold Determines Market Sentiment
1. Core Forecasts and Key Metrics
- Revenue and Profit: Q4 revenue is expected to be $87.67 billion (YoY +14.69%), EPS $4.22 (YoY +15.62%), basically in line with previous guidance.
- Azure Growth: The 39%-40% growth guidance at constant currency is the market's "passing line." If actual growth falls below 39%, concerns about slowing AI demand will arise; if it reaches 40% or above, it can partially ease capital expenditure pressure.
- Copilot Commercialization: M365 Copilot paid seats are expected to increase by 6 to 8 million, with total seats possibly exceeding 30 million. A key observation point is whether enterprise customer renewal rates exceed 95%; a decline would undermine the AI software monetization logic.
2. Capital Expenditure Pressure and Market Sensitivity
- Quarterly CAPEX may exceed $42 billion, with full-year 2026 capital expenditure expected to reach $190 billion (YoY +61%), mainly for AI data centers and GPU procurement.
- Free Cash Flow Pressure: Q4 free cash flow is expected at $16.8 billion (YoY -34.2%). If management hints that 2027 CAPEX will further rise above $220 billion, the market may question "investment efficiency."
- Market Bottom Line: Investors can accept "growth matching expenditure," but if Azure growth slows while CAPEX continues to climb, valuation logic will shift from "growth stock" to "discounted cash flow" models, and the current 20x P/E ratio may face downward revision risk.
2. Meta Earnings: Advertising Resilience Struggles Against "CAPEX Anxiety"
1. Advertising Business Remains Core Moat
- Revenue and Advertising Performance: Q2 total revenue is expected at $60.26 billion (YoY +26.79%), with advertising revenue at $58.99 billion (YoY +26%). AI-driven improvements in ad conversion rates are a key validation point—Advantage+ automation tools now cover 82% of advertisers, with landing page conversion rates up over 6%.
- User Engagement: The app family (Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp) daily active users are expected to reach 358 million, but attention is needed on whether AI assistant monthly active users surpass 700 million.
2. Capital Expenditure as the Biggest "Minefield"
- CAPEX Guidance Risk: Current full-year 2026 guidance is $125 billion to $145 billion; if raised above $150 billion, it will trigger market panic over free cash flow. FactSet predicts Q2 free cash flow may turn negative for the first time.
- Market Tolerance Threshold: Investors accept "AI investment in exchange for improved ad efficiency," but if Reality Labs losses continue to widen, it will weaken the profit support for the advertising business.
- Historical Reference: Alphabet's stock plunged 7% in one day after raising CAPEX; if Meta repeats this, $750 will be a key resistance level, and falling below $600 could accelerate the decline.
3. Unified Market Logic: AI Investment Enters "Return Verification Period"
1. Turning Point from "Concept Hype" to "Data Validation"
- Market Focus Shift: Previously focused on "whether AI demand is real," now shifts to "whether unit capital expenditure can bring quantifiable revenue increments." If Microsoft's Azure growth falls below 40% or Meta's ad conversion rate improvement stalls, it will shake the entire AI infrastructure investment logic.
- Free Cash Flow Becomes the New Benchmark: Tech giants need to prove "CAPEX expansion ≠ profit deterioration," especially paying attention to whether the lag between capital expenditure and revenue conversion shortens.
2. Three Key Signals to Watch Today
- Microsoft: Whether Azure growth exceeds 40%, whether Copilot adds more than 7 million seats in a quarter, and whether 2027 CAPEX guidance exceeds $220 billion.
- Meta: The extent of ad conversion rate improvement, whether Reality Labs losses narrow, and whether specific plans for "external leasing of computing power" are disclosed.
- Common Variable: Management's statements on the "AI investment return cycle." If Microsoft says "cash flow turns positive in 2027" or Meta emphasizes "ad ROI has improved by over 15%," it could ease short-term selling pressure.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
@OKX星球 $SNDK SanDisk rebounds, can it go higher?
Why did SanDisk fall? Because ChangXin Memory surged on its A-share listing debut, the market fears Chinese manufacturers will impact the NAND sector, causing global storage stocks to panic. Additionally, news of large-scale mass production of lithography machines in China has dampened market sentiment.
AI has driven growth for companies like Micron and Hynix. If China mass-produces lithography machines, these companies' profits may decline in the future. The market also worries about the returns on these investments. This explains why SanDisk has recently dropped and why I am bearish on SanDisk.
The above views are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice #美联储即将公布利率决议 EIA crude oil inventories + Fed decision Market outlook Tonight focuses on two major data points: 22:30 EIA crude oil inventories and the 2:00 AM Fed rate decision the next day, which directly affect short-term market volatility. The Fed decision is the core theme, while EIA is only a short-term disturbance. EIA crude oil data influences the crypto world through inflation forecasts: a sharp drop in inventories will push up oil prices and inflation expectations, suppressing the crypto market; A sharp increase in inventories eased inflationary pressures and provided short-term support to the market. This data only creates short-term insertions and cannot change the overall trend; even slight data biases will be ignored by the market. Currently, the market is mainly pricing in the Fed keeping rates unchanged, with the key to the rhetoric after the meeting, divided into three core trends: 1. Hawkish remarks (highly probable): emphasizing inflation uncertainty and delayed rate cuts, the US dollar and US Treasuries strengthen, putting pressure on the market, and altcoins will fall much more than Bitcoin. 2. Dovish Statement: Acknowledging inflation easing and maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, risk sentiment is warming, leading to a short-term rebound in the crypto sector. 3. Unexpected rate hikes (low probability): Expectations of tightening liquidity surge, a rapid global decline, and concentrated liquidations of high-leverage coins. Overall, I lean toward a cautious and wait-and-see approach: I don't predict bulls or bears in advance; wait for the Fed to take effect in the early morning and the market shows a clear and stable structure, then follow suit. At the same time, focus on coin selection: Bitcoin is more resilient, while Bitcoin and coins are more volatile and riskier. The high interest rate environment has not fully improved; this round of news fluctuations is a swing market with no one-sided trend opportunities. Strictly control position positions throughout, no pursuitWill the interconnection between the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market remain intact?
1. Based on my experience watching the market for so long, the ultra-high linkage between the two will never last forever; it will only show tight binding and phased decoupling, switching back and forth. Currently, this high synchronization is just one phase of the market cycle.
2. First, let's talk about the core reason why collaborations are currently difficult to quickly dissipate
Wall Street institutions have deeply connected the stock market and crypto capital channels; spot ETFs continue to operate, companies heavily holding Bitcoin have been included in the Nasdaq constituents, and large hedge funds have allocated positions uniformly.
When the market panics and sells off risk assets, they simultaneously reduce holdings in US growth stocks and redeem Bitcoin ETFs; With liquidity easing and recovery, both asset classes will rise together, with risk appetite fully bound.
Moreover, crypto futures have extremely high leverage, so even small fluctuations in US stocks are magnified exponentially. To the naked eye, virtual currencies are led by US stocks throughout.
As long as the Fed's dollar liquidity remains the core benchmark for global asset pricing, this underlying linkage will persist for the long term.
3. In the future, there will be multiple scenarios of market divergence and a completely independent trend
The first scenario: repeated global inflation and ongoing doubts about the credit of the US dollar.
Funds treat Bitcoin as digital gold to hedge against currency depreciation. US tech stocks, constrained by earnings and capital expenditure pressures, have fluctuated downward, while Bitcoin has countered the trend and strengthened, with correlation turning from positive to negative.
The second scenario: Exclusive benefits within the crypto community are concentrated and implemented.
The four-year halving dividend, the introduction of friendly regulatory policies by many countries worldwide, and sovereign nations allocating Bitcoin reserves — these unique narratives have an influence that surpasses the macro sentiment of the U.S. stock market, enabling the crypto market to emerge from an independent bull market.
The third scenario: intensifying global geopolitical conflicts.
Funds are avoiding fluctuations in the U.S. equity market and instead hoarding crypto assets for safe haven, so the two trends naturally diverge completely.
4. In the medium to long term, the overall synergy will gradually weaken
In earlier years, Bitcoin was purely dominated by retail investors within the industry and was largely unaffected by US stocks; Only after the pandemic flooded did they begin to deeply bind to the Nasdaq.
Subsequently, as the trend toward de-dollarization advances and funds from the Middle East and Asia heavily invest in crypto assets, pricing funds no longer rely solely on the US market.
Bitcoin's value reserve attribute will gradually return, no longer simply being a high-volatility tech accessory for US stocks, and the range of synchronized volatility will narrow year by year.
5. Based on the current market situation, provide a practical judgment
In the next 1-3 months, the Fed's interest rate decisions and US tech earnings reports will remain the main themes, with strong interactions, and price movements inevitably following the Nasdaq's trend.
Once the rate-cutting cycle fully begins and inflation concerns emerge, the two will gradually widen their trend, and Bitcoin will gradually find its own rhythm. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Recently, the public's attention has been focused on AI, with less energy invested in oil prices. However, today's rebound still needs to be analyzed. WTI oil prices dipped to the 4-hour support level at 78 before rebounding to a high of over 83.
For assets mainly driven by war and geopolitical tensions, the smoothness of the rise is greater than the fall, especially in the current situation where the war is neither fully on nor off, showing a characteristic of volatility.
Unlike before, this surge in oil prices is no longer purely driven by war logic but has transitioned from a blockade of the two straits to charging fees for passage through the two straits. Moreover, from the current attitudes of all parties, the US is not very opposed to the fees themselves; the conflict has narrowed down to how much to charge and how to divide the fees.
If the two straits ultimately confirm charging fees, then "security fees," "protection fees," and "toll fees" will be permanently embedded in the composition of international oil prices. This is not just a price increase; it is the collapse of the existing world order, and the impact is more than just rising prices.
Charging fees means that global central governments can no longer afford the free order. Freedom of navigation was once a flagship public good of the US, with allies paying implicit fees through dollar recycling and alliance obedience. Once passage is explicitly priced, the implicit contract between the dollar and security weakens. Ironically, "Better to pay millions for defense than a penny as tribute" is one of America's founding myths, and Jefferson fought the first overseas war for this reason.
If the US still wants to maintain the original world order, fighting another war to completely subdue Iran is a must. Netanyahu just met with Trump—"one hour, behind closed doors, no reporters, side entrance." After the meeting, Netanyahu declared it was "the best conversation with the US president," a "complete partnership," and the White House called it "positive and productive." All these indicate that the risk of war has risen again, and oil prices have immediately responded. $CL #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 ETH pulled back from 1500 to 2055, stabilizing and rebounding near 1945 over the weekend. The US and Iran paused military operations, while Ethereum rose more than 3% in a single day. However, 2055 is a heavy pressure zone for multiple currencies in the early stages. This week, ETFs saw a net outflow of $161 million, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike rose to 36.3%—fierce bulls and bears are in this area. I won't take sides; when the direction is clear, whoever wins will compete.
📌 Key upper levels: 2000-2055, previous weekly high. Breakout and hold steady = bullish continuation, targeting 2100-2150
📌 Key levels below: 1900-1920, MA55 + MA120 support + recent consolidation box bottom. Below the break = Bears dominate, target 1850-1800
📈 Bullish logic:
(1) The U.S. and Iran suspend military operations, rapidly cooling geopolitical risks
(2) In July, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of $338 million, with a positive monthly trend; BlackRock ETHA saw a single-day net inflow of $41.92 million
(3) The 1-hour chart shows support near 1900 and rebounding, with the bottom gradually rising and a short-term upward structure established
📉 Bearish logic:
(1) This week, Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $161 million, marking four consecutive weeks of net outflows; Bitcoin ETFs ended a seven-day streak of net inflows, with institutions taking short-term profits
(2) The probability of a Fed rate hike in July is 36.3%, reaching 55.2% in September; The 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated, putting pressure on risk asset valuations
(3) 2055 is a strong resistance in the early stage, and a single positive factor is unlikely to break through and hold steady directly
⚡ Breakout Strategy:
Break above 2000-2055 and hold above → to buy long, stop below 1950, targeting 2100-2150
Effectively break below 1900-1920 → follow shorts, stop loss above 1950, target 1850-1800
No operations within the 1920-2000 range, waiting for direction confirmation.
A ceasefire is good news, a rate hike is a hanging sword, ETF tug-of-war between bulls and bears—three forces tug-of-war, let the candlestick show you who wins.Important reminders in the evening!!
At 10:30 p.m. tonight, crude oil inventory data will be released, followed by a series of major policy decisions in the early hours. Two key news items affecting the market will be released simultaneously, making it easy to break the long-standing range of volatility recently.
During the period when news is released, prices fluctuate without fixed patterns, and blindly predicting the direction of major manufacturers carries high risk. I suggest everyone reduce their holdings and set up a defensive position every time Buju is used. There's no need to rush to enter the market early to test trades. Patiently wait until all the information is in effect and the direction is clear before choosing the right opportunity. Steadily controlling the pace helps reduce unnecessary losses.I just checked the indicator: J value is 6.11, just like the previous two rounds. But looking closely, it's actually different—last time J hit 6, QQQ was still holding above 665. Now? 665 has already been broken, QQQ closed at 675, and the Nasdaq was dragged down by Nvidia by another 5%. What about BTC? 64,350, amplitude 0.12%, as if nothing happened.
Global assets are falling, with only BTC holding sideways. SNDK fell from 1500 to 1000, SK Hynix dropped more than ten points in a day, and the storage sector was in turmoil. But BTC remained unmoved, with 74% of sell orders suppressed for an entire day, and the price remained completely unchanged.
I've been in this industry for a few years, and I fear this kind of market the most. It's not that I'm afraid of a drop, but of holding it in. Everyone is waiting for the FOMC to happen, and Warsh will make its debut tonight. The probability of a 29.5% rate hike isn't low, but the market has already priced in the negative news.
J-value of 6.11 is in the oversold zone, and RSI (6) at 33.67 is also relatively low. From a technical perspective, there is a need for a rebound here. But in front of the FOMC, all technical indicators have to step aside. Let's wait until the boots land.$ETH ETH Market In-Depth Analysis: A Summary of Macro, Capital, and Market Signals
Combining recent news and capital data, this article reviews the current bullish and bearish tug-of-war on Ethereum.
1. Macro: Fed policy leads the volatility range
Federal Reserve official Warsh stated in July that inflation risks had eased, and market expectations for a delayed rate hike became the core driver of ETH's early July rebound. After expectations of a rate hike cooled on July 6, ETH rose from $1786 to break through $1900, marking a 6.4% gain.
However, the market remains cautious about the July 27 FOMC meeting, with prices testing $1920 before pulling back under pressure. Combined with the rise and then pullback of the US 10-year Treasury yield, risk assets as a whole have entered a highly volatile environment with difficulty breaking out of a one-sided trend, causing ETH to fluctuate between $1850 and $1920 for a long time.
2. Linking with US Stocks: The crypto market is experiencing a phase of divergence
According to a QCP Capital report, digital assets overall outperformed traditional US stocks in July.
ETH rose 24.6% for the month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's slight gains and Nasdaq declines, indicating an independent rally in the crypto market.
Two major drivers of divergence: AI sector market cools down, capital diverting from tech stocks; The ongoing implementation of the Ethereum RWA ecosystem has brought ongoing structural demand.
However, internal sector differentiation in the US market continues to affect the market. With the Dow strengthening and the Nasdaq weakening, ETH is prone to volatility, making it difficult to break away from external sentiment and find a clear direction in the short term.
3. Capital signals: Bullish momentum is gradually waning; be cautious of profit-taking
1. Bearish sentiment in the futures market
ETH perpetual contract funding rates remain low, with weighted fees on July 26 at only 0.0028% and 0.0018%, below the 0.005% threshold. Bearish sentiment in the derivatives market is intensifying, forming a clear divergence from the spot market rebound.
Compared to BTC, ETH bearish sentiment is stronger. This round of rally has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, with persistent take-profit selling pressure. Leverage funds are not very willing to enter the market, lacking sustained momentum to push the price up.
2. Institutional funds begin to withdraw
On July 24, the U.S. USD ETH ETF saw a large net outflow of $311 million, ending a seven-day streak of net inflows.
Institutional funds have chosen to cash in near the $1900 area, with many opinions believing that the current level is a temporary top range and that the risk of a pullback is accumulating.
4. ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: A relatively strong narrative is taking shape
The ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a nearly three-month high, indicating that Ethereum is performing more strongly relative to Bitcoin.
Historically, ETH has long underperformed BTC. This round of strength reflects a recovery in market risk appetite and positive long-term expectations for Ethereum ecosystem applications.
Market views suggest: This cycle may repeat the 2022 trend, with ETH bottoming out early (hitting a low of $1505 in June), BTC still searching for a bottom, which is the core logic behind ETH's recent relative strength.
5. Core Risk Warning
The greatest uncertainty still comes from the Federal Reserve: although the market is currently pausing rate hikes, inflation risks have not been completely eliminated. Once inflation data rebounds and the Fed resumes tightening expectations, risk assets will collectively come under pressure.
Market summary
In the short term, there are divergences in macro expectations and capital flows. Spot markets have ecological narrative support, but contract sentiment remains weak and institutional funds are taking profits and exiting, increasing upward resistance.
The market is likely to remain in a wide range of fluctuations, with very high risk of one-sided chasing. Pay close attention to directional choices brought by the FOMC meeting.
⚠️ Information is for information compilation only and does not constitute any trading advice. Will the growth rate of cloud giants' investment in AI peak over the next two years?
The answer is yes!
UBS expects capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud service providers to surge 76% this year to $673 billion,
However, next year's growth rate will sharply drop to 25%, and by 2028 it will further slow to 6%, facing the risk of a "sudden brake" in the next two years.
In the early days, cloud giants mainly relied on their own cash flow to support AI investments, but now they increasingly depend on external financing.
Once the market doubts about investment returns, financing becomes more difficult.
It should be made clear that peaking growth does not mean absolute investment has declined.
A more likely evolutionary path is: growth peaks → absolute spending consolidates at high levels or slowly climbs → eventually enters a more sustainable steady state.
To truly steer and contract, wait for the following signals:
1. AI monetization continues to fall short of expectations, such as cloud profit margins, advertising AI premiums, and weak enterprise subscription growth;
2. Significant oversupply of computing power, resulting in low utilization;
3. Investors' ability to withstand negative free cash flow and debt pressure is nearing its limit;
4. Severe bottlenecks in electricity or regulation restricting new projects;
5. Reasoning costs continue to decline.
Overall, 2026 will be the peak year for cloud giants' capital expenditure to explode, and the growth rate will be difficult to sustain thereafter.
As spending growth and total revenue peak one after another, only a few AI-related companies continue to benefit, making divergence in individual stock performance within the sector inevitable.
$AMZN
$GOOGL #美联储即将公布利率决议
🔍 Tonight's key event: FOMC interest rate decision
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce the July interest rate decision, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM.
Current market probability distribution:
· Hold rates steady (3.50%-3.75%): about 61%-70%
· Unexpected 25 basis point hike: about 30%-39%
· 50 basis point hike or rate cut: very low probability, totaling about 2%
UBS Chief Economist admits: "In the past 20 years, it has never been as difficult as now to predict the Fed's upcoming rate decision."
📌 Three scenarios and their impact on BTC/ETH
1: Hold rates steady + hawkish statement (highest probability, about 50%)
The statement emphasizes "inflation risks remain on the upside," hints at a possible hike in September, and may include 2 or more hawkish dissent votes (Logan, Harker). The market interprets this as a "hawkish pause"—short-term may rally then drop, BTC surges then quickly falls back.
2: Hold rates steady + dovish statement (about 28% probability)
Acknowledges cooling inflation and manageable geopolitical risks, Powell's tone is mild. Most favorable for crypto markets, BTC may break through the $64,500-$65,000 resistance zone.
3: Unexpected 25 basis point hike (about 20%-39% probability)
Institutions like Citadel bet Powell will act early to build "anti-inflation credibility." BTC may quickly drop to $61,000-$62,000 or even lower, ETH may fall to the $1,750-$1,800 range.
💡 My advice: wait for the results and let the market speak first
First, Powell's "unpredictability" itself is the biggest risk. He has completely scrapped forward guidance, cutting the statement from several hundred words to 130 words. This meeting has no economic forecast summary or dot plot; all signals are deliberately blurred—no one knows what he will do.
Second, BTC has recently shown relative resilience. Nasdaq fluctuated in July, semiconductor sector dropped nearly 20%, while BTC has risen about 6% so far in July. But this doesn't mean the FOMC has no impact on BTC—just that the transmission path is more indirect: the dollar and US bonds move first, Nasdaq then reacts, BTC follows risk appetite.
Third, regardless of the outcome, some people will be disappointed. The 70% vs 30% split means—if rates hold steady, the 30% betting on a hike will exit disappointed; if there is a hike, the 70% betting on no change will panic sell.
📊 Positioning suggestions
⚠️ Before the decision (before 2:00 AM):
Do not open new positions. Both bulls and bears are waiting for final guidance; the price is oscillating narrowly around 63,600. Opening long or short here is a gamble, and with 100x leverage, the cost of losing is zeroing out.
If you really can't resist, do only one thing:
Reduce leverage to within 3-5x, or simply close all positions. The rapid spike-and-drop around the decision, regardless of direction, may first wipe you out.
📈 After the decision (after 2:30 AM):
Let the market move for 30 minutes first; don't jump the gun. Watch three things: how the dollar index moves, how US bond yields behave, and how Nasdaq futures react—when these three resonate, then enter.
· If the result is "dovish hold": wait for BTC to pull back and stabilize around 62,800-63,100, then lightly go long with stop loss below 62,500, target 63,800-64,500
· If the result is "hawkish hold": observe and wait for the market to digest the "rally then drop" volatility
· If the result is "unexpected hike": don't catch the falling knife. Wait for price stabilization and clear bottoming signals before considering entry; watch ETH around 1,750-1,800
Remember: being out of the market is not missing an opportunity, but keeping control in your own hands. Let the market speak first, then follow.🌙 $AEON AEON: Guess why 99% of those stock tokens have a trading volume of several thousand U, while the highest only 20,000 to 50,000 U.S. trading volume. Even though there's no liquidity, exchanges still have so much trading volume. Because these are the US stock tokens created by the exchanges themselves, with no trading volume at all. The reason is that without project teams or market makers, no one even brushes the trading volume. Other exchanges issue a US stock token at most $0.5-1 USD, which is a case of getting something for nothing. Whether there is trading volume or not, they don't lose out—otherwise, why would they be so eager to list so many US stock tokens?The core reason why virtual currencies are currently deeply tied to US stocks and have highly synchronized rises and falls
1. In my view, the most fundamental point: Bitcoin has long lost its early digital gold safe-haven attributes and is now uniformly classified by global capital as a highly elastic technology growth asset. Its performance benchmarks against the Nasdaq and AI computing power sectors, with volatility far greater than that of individual US stocks.
When market risk sentiment intensifies, funds will immediately sell off their crypto holdings; As US stocks rebound and recover, funds will enter the market again to seek excess returns, naturally forming a pattern of rising and falling in tandem. Currently, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has remained above 0.7 for a long time, with the linkage momentum at a historic high.
2. Dollar liquidity is the pricing foundation shared by both, and Fed interest rate expectations determine the overall direction.
Whether it's US tech stocks or virtual currencies, all heavily rely on a loose US dollar environment to support valuations. Now, the market is fully betting on tonight's Fed rate decision: rising expectations of rate cuts, a weaker dollar, massive influx of cheap funds into the stock and crypto markets, pushing prices higher; If interest rate cuts fall short of expectations and a hawkish stance is announced, global liquidity tightens, and both asset classes will plunge under pressure.
The consecutive sharp declines in the Nasdaq and memory chip stocks are essentially due to premature capital tightening leverage and hedging, naturally leading virtual currencies downward.
3. Wall Street institutions have deeply entered the market, opening up capital channels between the stock market and crypto circles, completely locking in interactivity.
Asset management companies like BlackRock and Fidelity have issued Bitcoin spot ETFs, while many traditional equity and hedge funds have allocated to computing power storage stocks like Nvidia and SanDisk, while also aligning with Bitcoin for high-elasticity portfolio allocation; Companies heavily invested in Bitcoin like MSTR are also included in the Nasdaq, and stock market volatility is directly transmitted into the crypto market.
Institutions allocate funds uniformly, reduce stock market positions to realize profits, and simultaneously redeem Bitcoin ETFs. With both selling pressures combined, the price being dragged down by US stocks will only grow stronger.
4. The crypto world inherently has extremely high leverage, amplifying the ups and downs of US stocks.
Typically, US stock price fluctuations are controlled within the 1%-3% range, but virtual currency contracts generally carry leverage of dozens of times. If the Nasdaq plunges even slightly, the crypto world will trigger a series of liquidations, with the decline far outpacing that of US stocks; Conversely, when the market warms up, leveraged funds quickly increase their positions, and the rebound is even stronger. This is the key reason why everyone feels the crypto world is completely led by US stocks.
5. The current market narratives completely overlap, all centered around AI capital expenditure and long-term cyclical expectations.
At this stage, capital is worried that AI giants will endlessly burn money to expand production, leading to overcapacity in storage and computing hardware in the future, and that the US stock computing and storage sectors will continue to see valuations drop. This pessimistic narrative is simultaneously transmitted into the crypto world, with funds unwilling to hold any long-term, risk-free assets without stable cash flow.
Only when Microsoft and Meta tighten capital spending in tonight's earnings reports and market concerns dissipate and US stocks stabilize and rebound will virtual currencies have a chance to stabilize and recover.
6. I summarize based on the current market situation
In the short term, this strong linkage is hard to break; Federal Reserve policies and US tech earnings reports are the core indicators influencing coin prices.
Before the risk-averse market in the US stock market ends, virtual currencies will find it difficult to break out of independent upward trends. Every slight rebound following the broader market is considered a phase of recovery. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver their #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期 tonight, with storage stocks experiencing sharp volatility $BTC $ETH $SNDK If you're buying every green candle right now, you're probably reading the market wrong.
The market looks strong on the surface, but under the hood, it's telling a very different story.
This isn't broad-based strength.
It's a liquidity rotation.
A handful of coins are outperforming, creating the illusion that everything is recovering. Meanwhile, capital is becoming more concentrated, not more widespread.
The biggest clue?
📊 Open interest is cooling while trading volume remains relatively steady.
That suggests traders aren't leaving the market—they're becoming more selective. Instead of chasing every breakout, money is flowing into the setups with the highest conviction.
Where liquidity is showing up:
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
The leaders I'm watching:
• $BTC — The market's liquidity anchor.
• $ETH — Still seeing strong institutional attention.
• $SOL — One of the strongest Layer-1 ecosystems.
• $DATA — Riding the AI infrastructure narrative.
• $WLD — AI and digital identity remain in focus.
• $HYPE — A good gauge of overall risk appetite.
• $ZEC & $DOGE — Useful signals for retail sentiment.
Where liquidity continues to dry up:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest edge in this market isn't chasing whatever pumped today.
It's identifying where capital is quietly accumulating—and avoiding the areas it's quietly abandoning.
Follow the money, not the noise.
Patience beats FOMO. The biggest moves usually start long before the crowd notices.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss Macau time 2:00 AM FOMC watch: Statement, implementation note, and press conference reading differences
The Federal Reserve's official July calendar specifies that the FOMC decision will be released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, with the press conference at 2:30 PM. Converted to Macau daylight saving time, this corresponds to 2:00 AM and 2:30 AM on July 30. The "early Thursday morning" mentioned by OKX's popular commentary thus has an official schedule basis, but before that time, any policy direction is not yet a published fact.
At 2:00 AM, the first document to read is the statement. It will explain the policy decision, economic and risk assessments, and voting results; simultaneously released is the implementation note, which explains the actual operational tools. The two documents serve different purposes; the statement's headline should not obscure details about reserves, open market operations, or other execution specifics. If the official website link is delayed, one should wait for the original documents rather than rely on community screenshots.
The press conference is at 2:30 AM. The press conference can explain the decision background and the committee's reaction function, but answers usually come with conditions and cannot be taken as a firm commitment for the next meeting based on "if data does this or that." Real-time reporting may also miss question context, so the final report waits for the official video or verbatim transcript for verification before quoting management's forward-looking statements.
This official schedule does not include a SEP asterisk, so no new dot plot is expected as arranged. This can be confirmed in advance but cannot be used to infer policy direction. The market may reference June forecasts, the July monetary policy report, or futures pricing, but these must be clearly dated and characterized and cannot be called new forecasts from this committee meeting.
Cross-market observation will use a unified timeline. First, record changes in US Treasury yields and the US dollar around 2:00 AM, then observe spot trading and derivatives leverage for BTC and ETH, and after 2:30 AM, distinguish the second phase of reaction brought by the press conference. Prices can reflect expectation gaps, positioning, and concurrent news but do not automatically prove the statement is "bullish" or "bearish."
Pre-meeting drafts expire immediately after the official documents are released; the final report only retains confirmed policy, voting, implementation notes, and chairman's conditions. If the market moves ahead of time before the early morning, the article will still be marked as pre-decision reaction and not backfilled as official news. The purpose of this timeline is to keep policy facts and trading reactions in sequence, not to provide interest rate or coin price forecasts.
At the time of the early morning release, website caching must also be guarded against. The Fed's annual release list, press release pages, and PDFs may update sequentially within minutes; articles will rely on the document's own date, time, and final link. If HTML and PDF are temporarily out of sync, automatic final reports will be paused, and no text will be supplemented based on search summaries. The official original text is the only basis for results, and all updates record the time.
The voting list must also be fully recorded. Dissenting votes represent disagreement with the current policy choice but do not mean the same stance will be held at all future meetings; absences, rotations, and official titles are based on the formal statement. The second version of content after the press conference will retain the facts of the first statement and will not rewrite policy decisions based on market rises or falls.Event: Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, decision announced at 2 AM, Wash speech at 2:30 AM
1. Interest rate judgment: Most likely no rate hike, but Wash's speech leans hawkish to suppress inflation.
2. Crypto market pattern: In the past 7-8 meetings, prices rose before the meeting and fell for 1-2 weeks after; this time prices rose before the meeting, high probability of correction after.
3. ETH operation: Low leverage short at 1925-1940; strong resistance at 2050 to add short and reduce cost; prediction that even if this level is broken, a significant pullback will occur.
4. US stocks: Chip sector has already dropped significantly, no short chasing.
5. Micron MU key supports: 800, 690; 800 has been bought twice on dips; 690 is considered the bottom of this decline, heavy long positions when reached.
$ETH $MU $SKHYNIX
Disclaimer: The above is only a summary of opinions and does not constitute investment advice. #美联储即将公布利率决议
The market is currently most focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Based on market interest rates, the probability of a rate hike is currently around 35%, while the polymarket is priced at around 25%. I think there are three possible scenarios:
1. If there is no rate hike in July, Walsh's post-meeting remarks are likely hawkish, and a rate hike in September is almost certain. And according to the rules, if rates are to be raised at least twice, then it would be 9/16 and 10/28. Although the market may rebound in the short term, the coming months will be filled with fear, which is highly unfavorable for the midterm elections.
2. If there was an unexpected rate hike in July, then a second rate hike is very likely in September. Although the short-term is a huge negative for the stock market, possibly a final drop in the stock market, a quick rate hike within a month and a half is better than a short-term pain; a quicker recovery from the bottom is beneficial for the midterm elections. Moreover, the market is already at the bottom, so the impact of rate hikes is not as significant. Additionally, a 50 basis point rate hike leaves room for rate cuts next year; as inflation data drops at year-end, it can fuel expectations for next year's rate cuts.
3. No rate hikes in July; if inflation data drops in September, they will continue to hold up, relying on empty talk to raise interest rates to suppress inflation. It seems like a good thing, but it's easy to take it off. The market has always been in fear of losing the boot before it hits—Powell did it once in 2021. I don't think it's very likely.
Next, let's look at the market:
Bitcoin $BTC dipped to 62.5K on Tuesday before being bought and quickly rebounded to 63.8K, with short-term support active. Leveraged long positions were liquidated (liquidated positions exceeding 670 million yuan), and after selling pressure was released, the market stabilized. Small ETF inflows and sharp declines in semiconductor stocks suppressed risk sentiment, but the pullback in oil prices provided a bottom buffer, and the trend of $ETH Ethereum was almost the same. Currently, ahead of the FOMC meeting, bulls and bears are in a stalemate, expected to remain in a narrow range, awaiting policy clarity. $SNDK #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver data tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility The Minnesota ban was temporarily suspended for $HOOD, clearing short-term compliance barriers, but the after-hours Q2 earnings faced challenges from both monetization efficiency and crowded high positions.
Regulatory litigation implementation takes priority over short-term transaction data. The preliminary injunction issued by a federal judge has suspended state-level restrictions, preserving the path for business growth under federal regulation. The market's pricing core is shifting from compliance suspense to whether the maximum $0.01 commission per ticket enabled in June can actually translate into net returns.
Risk appetite drove a massive volume of 3.9 billion event contracts in May, with a daily average of 126 million contracts, an 18% month-on-month increase, prompting institutions to raise their earnings forecasts. However, the recent rise in stock prices has partially factored into growth premiums, and long positions are clearly facing pressure to lock in chips ahead of the earnings release.
The upside scenario requires Q2 revenue exceeding $1.29 billion and earnings per share exceeding $0.43, proving that the actual conversion efficiency of the massive contract volume exceeds expectations. A variable to watch is the proportion of event contract commissions to total revenue. If earnings per share exceed expectations but are sold off after hours, the upward logic fails.
The downside scenario triggered fees for 3.9 billion contracts due to price discounts far below estimates, or further spreading regulatory risks in states like Maryland and Nevada. A variable to watch is management's guidance on compliance costs and local bans. If revenue is well below $1.29 billion but the stock price is driven up by growth in other businesses, the downside logic will fail.
The core variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the post-market earnings report on July 29 Eastern Time, showing the pull of the cash-out commission on $0.43 earnings per share, and the next steps in state government litigation following the court's injunction.
#银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be regenerated. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #AI巨头债券利差飙升: Investment risks are still a good opportunity to buy the dipBlockInfinity Evening News · 2026-07-28 (US Stock Market After-hours · Super Week Eve
🌐 1. Macro Perspective
🟡 Super Weekly Opening: FOMC 7/29 11:00 PT interest rate decision + Powell press conference (market leans toward holding steady); Core PCE 7/30 05:30 PT, expected 3.30%. Before the decision, everyone watched from the sidelines—don't bet on direction.
🟡 Silver bulls account for as much as 97% (extremely crowded, caution); XAU $4,034（-0.28%）、XAG $57.76（+0.94%）。
🌍 2. International Situation (Major Reversal ⚠️ from Noon)
🔴 Geopolitical re-escalation: Iran launches missiles at U.S. bases, ending the "brief ceasefire" (overturning this morning's downgrade narrative); US-Saudi joint airstrike on PMF headquarters in northern Iraq kills 8; Oryazan's industrial facilities were attacked by drones and caught fire.
🔴 After three consecutive days of decline, oil prices rebounded +4%, WTI returned to $82.4 (+1.96%)—watch out for the transmission that "oil → inflation expectations →suppress gold and BTC," and don't treat the war as a bullish risk asset.
🔴 Semiconductor risk-offs spread to Asia: South Korea's KOSPI plunged 6% (South Korea's finance minister studies market stabilization + plans to tighten 2x leveraged ETF regulations for individual stocks), Taiwan weighted down over 3%; Sony Kumamoto Semiconductor Factory continued to halt production after the earthquake.
📊 3. Technical Aspects (BTC + ETH multi-cycle, closing candlestick)
₿ BTC $63,866（+1.12%）
🟡 Daily chart: Close at 63,895, holding above MA50 at 63,290, below MA20/100/200; MACD bearish convergence above the zero axis, RSI at 14 at 48.5 is neutral; Major Range: 61,660–66,930.
🟢 4H: Express MACD(7,14,5) golden cross, MA200 63,116 as a bottom; 1H BOLL bandwidth narrowed to 1.61%. ⚠️ As the inversion approaches, the short-term rebound is slightly strong but is suppressed by 64,180.
Ξ ETH $1,906（+1.72%）
🟢 Structure stronger than BTC: daily bullish alignment (above MA20/50/EMA50), all four 4H moving averages above the station; RSI 58.7 is slightly strong; Top 1,982 is the Nth resistance and support is at 1,850.
🧮 4. Derivatives
🟡 Funding rates fully applied zero-axis with no congestion: BTC +0.0034%~+0.01% (8h), ETH +0.0019%~+0.0029%, SOL turning negative (-0.0028%).
Spot premium -0.14% / -$91.6 (spot slightly sold off).
Panic and greed index of 29 (Fear), emotionally indifferent.
₿ 5. BTC Core
$63,866 (24h +1.12%), the Nth day of wide-range fluctuations. Double support MA50 63,290 + 4H MA200 63,116 effective; Resistance at 64,457 (daily BOLL middle band) → 66,930 (range top). 1H extremely narrow bandwidth = a market change is approaching, and the direction is likely to be triggered by the 7/29 FOMC.
6. Comprehensive judgment
Crypto: Range-bound fluctuations awaiting a market change; before FOMC, neither bulls nor bears should heavily bet on direction; ETH is relatively stronger than BTC.
US stocks: The storage/semiconductor slaughter has entered its fourth day and is spreading globally (SNDK -14.9% / SK Hynix -12% / MU -8.5% / DRAM -8.8%), but mega-cap is diverging (GOOGL +2.3% / META +0.3% / TSLA flat) — risk-off is concentrated in the storage chain, not a total crash.
Geopolitical reversal (oil surge) combined with super weekly = amplified volatility, anti-insertion.
7. Trading Recommendations
• BTC: Range-bound trading. Light position at top 66,000–66,930 (stop loss daily chart breaks 67,200), bottom 61,660–62,000 light position long position (stop loss at 61,000); Pre-FOMC position ≤30%.
• ETH: Relatively strong, a pullback to 1,850–1,860 is a light option, stop loss at 1,830, target 1,982.
• Storage chain: Don't catch the flying knives; don't buy the dip if the daily chart hasn't recovered (MU 890–910 / Hynix 1172–1214 reference levels have all been broken = trend downward).
• Iron rule: Do not add positions or go bareheaded before FOMC (7/29 11:00 PT) + PCE (7/30 05:30 PT), always place stop-losses.
8. Risk events
7/29 11:00 PT FOMC interest rate decision + Powell press conference
7/30 05:30 PT US June Core PCE (expected 3.30%)
The Middle East ceasefire has broken down, causing a second wave of Hormuz / oil prices
Storage chain earnings week: 8/4, SNDK 8/5
Silver is 97% bullish crowded, preventing a sharp reversal
—— · Powered By Wesley空军集合信号逐步清晰。 SNDK、SK海力士近期迎来低位技术性反弹，但订单流足迹图已经暴露核心隐患：反弹途中主动买盘持续走弱。SKHYNIX连续录得负delta，主动卖盘持续反击，期权持仓量同步回落。 本轮修复没有增量资金进场，仅仅是超跌之后存量资金减仓带来的短暂反弹，并非趋势反转。 这条逻辑不止作用于美股存储标的，同样适用于韩国股市。 韩国KOSPI指数高度依赖半导体赛道，三星电子、SK海力士两只存储巨头占据指数极高权重。简单来说：存储板块的走向，直接决定韩国股市整体行情。 上半年市场疯狂炒作AI存储超级周期，资金提前透支未来盈利预期，推高韩股与存储个股估值。如今行情逻辑已经发生转变： 1、HBM、NAND远期扩产预期升温，市场开始博弈2027年存储供需松动； 2、SK海力士财报落地，利好兑现，高位获利资金集中出逃； 3、大量杠杆ETF集中平仓，一旦股价破位，极易形成下跌负反馈。 盘口资金信号高度统一： 美股SNDK反弹无力，上方层层套牢盘压制上涨空间； SK海力士买盘不断衰减，逢高抛售力量持续增强； 传导至韩国主板，权重股承压，指数上行空间被彻底锁死。 很多交易者把短期反弹当成底部#FinancialReportObserver: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Submit Reports Tonight
Financial Report Observer: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Submit Reports Tonight
1. The entire US tech stock sector's sentiment has completely shifted. In my view, this earnings season is not about how much profit is made; the core focus is on whether companies can control their spending appetite.
Google is the most vivid cautionary example: despite meeting all performance targets, its stock price plunged simply because it announced continued investment in AI infrastructure. Investors are now tired of endless cash burning on computing power and prefer companies that spend prudently and have solid profits. The evaluation criteria have become much stricter.
2. Starting with Microsoft, its earnings report tonight has a low margin for error.
The market expects Azure cloud growth to be around 39%–40%. If it just meets expectations, the stock will likely trade sideways with little upside; any slight slowdown in growth or another rise in capital expenditures will likely trigger a sell-off.
I have always felt Microsoft is in a dilemma: to maintain its AI leadership, it must keep investing in infrastructure, but continuous heavy spending dilutes its earnings, making it hard to achieve both in the short term. Delivering a perfect earnings report will be challenging.
3. Meta is the least promising among the three, facing the greatest downward pressure this round.
While AI optimization has boosted its ad revenue, it lacks its own cloud business to support computing hardware. All server and storage procurement costs must be absorbed by ad profits.
If management announces an increase in full-year capital budget tonight, even with strong revenue, capital will decisively flee. The monetization speed of AI on social platforms lags far behind hardware spending, compressing long-term profit margins.
4. Amazon will report earnings the next day and has relatively more advantages compared to the other two.
Many startup large model companies flock to rent AWS computing power, so cloud business growth recovery is basically certain. This also indirectly confirms that storage chip orders remain strong, benefiting Micron and Seagate.
However, it cannot escape spending constraints either. Cloud providers collectively stocking up on server flash memory and continuing capacity expansion will still suppress quarterly profits, limiting upside.
5. The earnings outcomes of these three companies will directly determine the short-term fate of the storage and computing sectors.
If all three collectively reduce computing power investment: market worries will dissipate, long-oversold SanDisk and Micron will see a decent rebound, and Nvidia can halt its pullback.
But if all three persist in heavy spending and capacity expansion: the AI hardware boom narrative will be continuously questioned, the storage sector will continue to decline, and safe-haven funds will keep flowing into Apple.
6. Coupled with tonight’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the collision of these two major events will cause particularly volatile market swings.
Given the current market sentiment, blindly betting on price moves ahead of time is too risky. Waiting and watching for the news to unfold is the prudent choice. Author: SOL that I don't understand. Is a global financial crisis coming? It looks like it! 1/ Storage continues to collapse, and the South Korean stock market keeps hitting circuit breakers. Many people treat it as a joke, thinking it's just because local leverage in South Korea is too high. But if you review the history of global financial crises over the past thirty years, you will find a pattern: South Korea is always the first to fall in every major crisis. ü%. Two months before Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy in 2008, South Korea was already experiencing a dollar shortage. Before the Nasdaq crash in 2000, Samsung and Hynix revised their forecasts downward, and South Korea's semiconductor sector peaked early. During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, South Korea was the first core economy to be hit. 3/ This is not a coincidence. South Korea's capital market is almost completely open, with foreign ownership consistently exceeding 30%. Samsung and Hynix are among the most liquid assets globally. Capital flows freely in and out, with sufficient support for large sales to be executed quickly. 4/ Therefore, South Korea has become a "backup cash pool" for global capital. European and American institutions earn returns in South Korea during normal times, but when domestic liquidity tightens, margin calls become urgent, or debts mature, their first reaction is to sell overseas holdings and pull money back home to put out fires. 5/ The priority is very clear: protect the domestic market first, then abandon the periphery; sell the liquid assets first, then the hard-to-liquidate ones. This has little to do with how well South Korea's economy is doing or whether the stock market is in a bubble; it is purely the instinct of capital self-preservation. 6/ This time, the trigger in South Korea is the semiconductor bubble combined with leverage. On average, every person in the country has 2 stock accounts, and 1 out of every 3 trades is margin financing. Once foreign capital withdraws, domestic leveraged positions cascade into forced liquidations, and the circuit breakers cannot stop.After Hynix's financial report was released, the market's first reaction was actually quite interesting.
On the surface, it has delivered a historic report card.
Operating profit in the second quarter was approximately 60.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of over 550%, once again setting a new company record; However, the market generally expected about 64 trillion won, with revenue also slightly below consensus, so funds were immediately cashed out, putting pressure on the stock price.
But what truly deserves attention is not whether profits are slightly below expectations, but the information released by management.
There were two key points on the call:
First, there is currently no significant slowdown in global AI capital expenditure.
Second, HBM4 has officially entered mass production and shipment, and many customers have signed long-term supply agreements, with cycles generally lasting several years.
Because of this, the market quickly revised its expectations, and the pessimism after the earnings report quickly eased. After the Korean market opened, SK Hynix's stock price strengthened again, and Samsung Electronics rebounded in sync.
This shows that what the market truly worries about is not demand, but valuation.
⸻
If we broaden our perspective a bit, it becomes easier to understand why the AI industry chain is experiencing such significant fluctuations today.
The day before, the US AI hardware sector underwent a collective adjustment:
* Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged;
* Multiple storage and chip companies have pulled back simultaneously;
* Some popular AI concept stocks also showed significant profit-taking.
At the same time, some companies announced that orders remain fully booked and production capacity is locked in for the next few years.
Thus, a very typical divergence emerged in the market:
On one hand, there are concerns about short-term valuations being too high;
On the other hand, we have to admit that long-term demand remains very strong.
These two incidents are actually not contradictory.
Industry prosperity remains, but stock prices will not always rise along a 45-degree angle.
⸻
Back to the crypto market.
I prefer to interpret this financial report as:
In the short term, sentiment leans toward sentiment; in the medium to long term, positive is the norm.
In the short term, the AI hardware sector will experience sharp fluctuations, and risk assets are easily affected in tandem, with BTC usually affected by some sentiment.
But from an industry perspective, the start of HBM4 volume ramp-up and continued lock-in of long-term orders indicate that AI computing power demand has not fundamentally changed.
What truly determines industry development in the coming years will still be the underlying infrastructure such as computing power, storage, and advanced packaging.
⸻
As for BTC, I am currently more focused on a few key positions rather than guessing daily price fluctuations.
If the price cannot regain the upper resistance zone, then in the short term, caution is still needed to avoid further volatility or even further pullbacks.
What truly matters is whether the market has regained volume and whether funds are flowing back in, not just the few hours after a financial report is released.
The demand for AI has not disappeared; the market is adjusting valuations, not the industry itself.
In trading, what truly needs to be respected is always the price itself.
$BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX
#海力士财报
#AI产业链
#BTC
#波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations Everyone saw the headline. I cared more about what came after it.
SK hynix posted another record quarter, but the market still found reasons to complain. Operating profit exploded year over year, yet both profit and revenue landed below expectations. At first glance, that looked bearish. Then management got on the call and changed the mood completely.
The two things I wrote down immediately were pretty simple. They still don’t see AI investment slowing, and HBM4 has already entered mass production with supply agreements that can stretch for around five years. That’s probably why the stock flipped from weakness to strength after the call, while Samsung also caught a solid bid. Deadass, the market isn’t arguing about whether AI demand exists. It’s arguing about how much of that future is already priced in.
That also explains why the semiconductor space feels so confusing right now. The Philly Semiconductor Index sold off hard, SanDisk got crushed, yet Seagate rallied after saying nearline HDD capacity is basically spoken for through 2028. Record earnings triggering selling while capacity is sold out for years… that’s peak market behavior. Lmao.
For BTC, I’m separating the short term from the bigger picture. In the near term, weakness across AI hardware can easily spill over into high-beta assets, so I’m still treating rebounds with caution. Unless the market can reclaim and hold the 64k-64.5k area, I’m not in a rush to chase longs.
The long-term picture looks different though. HBM4 production, multi-year contracts and steady AI infrastructure demand all reinforce the idea that the compute cycle hasn’t broken. To me, this feels more like a valuation reset than a collapse in demand.
So my plan stays boring. Small positions, no hero trades, and let price prove itself first. AI demand may still be intact, but that doesn’t mean every green candle deserves to be trusted. Are you buying this dip, or waiting for the charts to confirm before stepping back in?
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH