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$SNDK SNDK hit a low of 1055 tonight, with a current price of 1110, dropping another 13% in one day. A month ago it was 2350, now it's 1110—halved in just 30 days. But even more shocking than the price is the RSI6 has dropped to 6.08. I've seen extreme overselling, but never such numbers.
What does 6.08 mean?
An RSI below 10 is statistically considered "the extreme of the extreme." Looking through SNDK data, this is the first time such a reading has occurred since it was spun off from Western Digital in February 2025. Last time, SNDK's RSI dropped to 18, then rebounded 25% the following week; When it dropped to 20, it rebounded by 15%. An RSI of 6 means that short-term selling pressure has been exhausted to the extreme, and a rebound could unfold violently at any time. The US stock market has already closed, and pre-market trading continues. Tonight's low of 1055 may be the extreme bottom of this decline.
But short-term sentiment dominates everything—
1. Goldman Sachs issued a major warning yesterday. Goldman Sachs warned that the memory chip sector may face a "Q2 earnings bomb." Before the earnings release, SanDisk had already been downgraded by several analysts, and short-term funds were exiting ahead of the report to hedge risks.
2. Whales have made substantial profits from short selling. On July 27, a whale shorted 115,400 shares of SNDK (about $15 million) via Hyperliquid at an average price of $1,372. Tonight, the stock hit a low of $1,055, with unrealized gains exceeding $3 million. Short-selling institutions are still ramping up their positions.
3. Volume plunge sharply, panic trading is surging. Today's turnover reached 2.13 billion yuan, the highest volume recently. A sharp drop on high volume means selling pressure is being concentrated—some panic and cut losses, while others have started buying in to buy in.
What about Wall Street?
Evercore ISI targets $3,100, Susquehanna $3,250, Citi $2,500, and Goldman Sachs $2,200. Of 23 analysts, 79% gave a Buy rating. The current 1110 means that even Wall Street's most conservative target price still has room to double.
What should be seen from a technical perspective?
RSI6 6.08 — the first time such an extreme reading has appeared in history. The first resistance above is 1200-1230; a breakout should be seen at 1280-1300; below 1055 is the current low, and once it falls, there will be no support left to refer to.
Operational Advice:
For those with positions: Cutting losses at this position is no longer meaningful. Wait for a rebound of 1200-1230 before considering reducing positions.
For those who haven't boarded: wait until the station stabilizes between 1150-1180 before watching. Don't guess the bottom; let the market signal stabilize first.
Core conclusion: The fundamentals are not bad, but the short-term trend is in the hands of the bears. RSI 6 is a historically significant signal, but don't try to catch the knife. Let the bullet fly for a while—wait for volume to stop falling, wait for a long lower shadow, wait for the 5-day moving average to break above before acting.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 BitMine's stock price surged due to its bet on Ethereum's treasury strategy, and the market began to refocus on the path of enterprises buying ETH.
Nearly 4.8% ETH is quite bold.
ETH is locked and staked,
This is equivalent to buying a digital government bond with an annualized yield of about 2.6%~3%.
They also built their own staking network, MAVAN, with 4.9 million ETH staked and locked. The current annualized staking yield is $254 million, and after full stake, it can reach $299 million—truly unique.
To put it bluntly, 5% circulating supply isn't a good news for controlling the market, and the risk of backlash in both directions is huge. Why?
Positive: Continuous coin buying tightens the circulating market, supporting ETH price
Inverse: Once you stop adding positions, the market loses the largest stable buyers, making ETH prone to a sharp drop without support.
Then ETH's decline dragged down BMNR's stock price, making financing more difficult, completely cutting off funds for coin purchases, and creating a vicious cycle.
Institutions like ARK and Galaxy are holding positions simultaneously, with high capital concentration
Once institutions collectively take profits and exit, BMNR's stock price will experience a sharp crush, with volatility far greater than ETH spot trading, and extremely high leverage risk.
Don't get carried away; institutional hype logic cannot ignore bubble risks.
Institutions are creating new asset narratives,
But all leverage will eventually be tested by the market.Changxin Technology's recent stir in the capital market might be deeper than many people think. It transformed overnight from a long-term loss-making follower into the highest market cap company in the A-share market, reaching a market value of 3.28 trillion, directly surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. $长鑫科技#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
The reason for this surge boils down to two factors: the AI demand explosion + the irreplaceability of domestic substitution. The performance is indeed solid, good enough to be compared alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. In Q1 2026, Changxin's revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 719%, with net profit at 24.76 billion yuan. What does this mean? The profit made in one quarter exceeds the losses of several past years combined. The profit source is straightforward—DRAM prices have increased nearly sixfold within a year. Changxin is now the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, with a 7.7% market share, ranking behind Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. But the most critical point is: it is the only company in China capable of large-scale DRAM mass production. Domestic demand accounts for 34% of the DRAM market, but the localization rate is only 23%, leaving the remaining gap as its opportunity.
Market value of 3 trillion, but the "old foundation" still relies on the traditional market
Changxin's current earnings mainly come from traditional DRAM products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X. AI servers require DDR5, PCs and phones need LPDDR5, and orders are booked through 2027, with production capacity fully booked and still insufficient to meet demand.
However, the true "AI memory"—HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)—is still in the catching-up phase for Changxin. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron almost monopolize the global HBM market. Changxin's HBM3E mass production target is 2027, with at least a three-year technology gap. Moreover, it faces a hard constraint: no EUV lithography machines. The Dutch company ASML's EUV machines are blocked from sale by the U.S., so Changxin can only use DUV for multiple exposures, resulting in lower yield and efficiency compared to the previous generation. Even if domestic DUV equipment advances, catching up to Samsung and SK Hynix's production efficiency is not a matter of one or two years.
Two major weaknesses: the cycle will come, and HBM is not yet realized
DRAM is a highly cyclical industry; prices soar to unbelievable heights and crash mercilessly. Changxin's current profits largely rely on the "price increase dividend." Once AI computing investment slows or industry capacity is released in concentration, profits will fluctuate dramatically. Another issue is that HBM is not yet mass-produced; the AI concept is more of an indirect benefit (price increase) rather than direct income. Changxin is currently a "cyclical stock," but the market values it as a "growth stock"—this mismatch needs to be resolved by future HBM realization and technological catch-up.
In summary: the long-term logic is sound, but the short-term is already priced in. Changxin's market position, domestic substitution potential, and capacity expansion pace are all solid. However, its current market value has already priced in the profit peak of this price increase cycle. What will truly determine whether it can evolve from a "3 trillion market cap" to a "long-term trillion-level company" are three questions: When can HBM be mass-produced? Can equipment and material localization keep pace? Can it withstand the next price downturn cycle? These three questions remain unanswered now.🔥 Early Thursday morning, U.S. AI giants face a "triple life-or-death strike"
This time, the market is not just waiting for a simple interest rate decision, nor a financial report.
What needs to be verified is:
Is the trillion-dollar AI investment truly a future productivity revolution, or just a fantasy that the capital market is prematurely overdrawing?
Beijing time early Thursday morning:
🕑 02:00
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
The market has basically priced in — rates will remain unchanged.
So what really impacts the market is not whether rates are cut or not, but what signals the Fed sends:
Is there still room for future rate cuts?
Can high-valuation tech stocks continue to enjoy a premium?
⸻
🕓 After 04:00
Microsoft and Meta earnings reports come one after another.
On the surface, these companies remain strong.
But the capital market is no longer focused on "how much profit was made," but rather:
When will the money invested in AI start to generate returns?
Last week, Google's earnings were actually not bad, but due to huge AI capital expenditures, quarterly free cash flow was compressed or even negative, and the stock price remained under pressure.
Tesla even plunged 14% in one day, as the market reexamines:
Has the era of tech giants burning money wildly entered a valuation reappraisal phase?
⸻
This year:
Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $725 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 77%.
Here’s the question:
With such massive investments in AI servers, data centers, chips, and power,
Will the future profits be able to cover today's investments?
This is the real concern on Wall Street.
⸻
📌 Microsoft needs to prove:
The growth rate of its Azure cloud business can match the frenzied expansion of data center investments.
📌 Meta needs to prove:
The cash flow generated by its advertising business can fill the huge black hole of long-term AI investments.
⸻
The market may see two possible trends next:
✅ A friendly interest rate environment + earnings prove AI commercialization is accelerating
AI stocks may see a new round of gains, with capital flowing back in.
❌ A hawkish Fed + earnings show AI investment returns are insufficient
Then this may not be an ordinary correction, but:
Wall Street starts looking for payers for the AI bills piled up crazily over the past few years.
⸻
What truly decides is not just the rise or fall of Microsoft and Meta.
But the entire valuation logic of the AI era:
How much it’s worth in the future depends on whether the money burned now can turn into cash flow.
⚠️ After the climax, what the market fears most is not the story ending, but discovering the story hasn’t made money yet.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Intel has turned things around, rising 650% and then falling back to square one—this scenario is even more ridiculous than SanDisk's $INTC
Looking at the market, Intel's current price is around $91, down from a 52-week high of $142, a 36% pulldown over the past month. It's slightly better than SanDisk, which fell from 2354 to 1094, but not much better.
Let's look at the fundamentals first: the strongest quarterly report in fifteen years, but the market is not buying it
Intel's Q2 revenue was $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate since 2011. Adjusted net profit was 2.2 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 400 million yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits. By business, data center AI revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 59%. OEM business reached 5.8 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year. CEO Chen Liwu said during the conference call that AI-related businesses have grown by more than 70% year-on-year overall. More importantly, management confirmed that the 18A process has entered mass production, with the 14A process scheduled for mass production in 2028, and rumors of Tesla orders and Apple contract manufacturing. But what about the market reaction? After the earnings report, the stock surged as much as 13% in after-hours trading, but was then dragged down by the broader market. In the past month, it fell from 142 to 91, a decrease of 36%.
Why the drop? Like SanDisk, the AI hardware sector has collectively been revalued
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% over the day, Nvidia dropped 1%, AMD dropped 8%, and Intel dropped 5.8%. The core reason is simple: the market is questioning the return cycle of AI capital expenditure. Nvidia gave OpenAI that "circular financing," but Wall Street now denies this account. When market sentiment worsens, sellers should sell first with greater flexibility. Although Intel's performance is good, the entire sector is under pressure.
What sets Intel apart from SanDisk
SanDisk is a memory chip with strong price cycles. Intel's logic is "AI moving from training to inference, CPU back on the table"—not replacing GPUs, but the CPU-GPU configuration ratio in AI infrastructure is now close to 1:1, possibly even 4:1. Intel's core assets are the x86 ecosystem + advanced packaging + foundry network, and it is currently the only company that owns all three at once. Moreover, server CPUs are signed with long-term contracts of three to five years, with customers prepaid, which is highly certain revenue. But contract manufacturing is still burning cash, with quarterly operating losses exceeding $2 billion, free cash flow still negative, and capital expenditures raised to over $20 billion. This company still has a long way to go before it becomes financially free.
Conclusion: The fundamentals have indeed reversed, but the stock price has already filled expectationsA quick overview of Musk's Matryoshka Empire history:
It all started with SolarCity → Tesla in 2016—$2.6 billion to put its cousin's company plus its own investment into Tesla, shareholders sued Delaware, and he won the lawsuit and broke the precedent
The industrialized version is this time: X will be integrated into xAI (33 billion yuan, March 2025→), xAI into SpaceX (80 billion yuan consideration, early 2026→ and then a Cursor (60 billion yuan full equity) → IPO in June
He will eventually merge Tesla into SpaceX through his usual stock swap, so ensuring SPCX is expensive and TSLA is cheap is a necessary path (but this strength is relative)
The post-earnings call from Tesla last week has already begun laying the groundwork for business integration, and the next cards will most likely follow this pattern:
1. First earnings report on August 4: Reassessing fundamentals guided by Starlink revenue, AI orders, and capital expenditure
2. August 5 supply gap, August 6 unlocked inspection, August 7 Grok node: first create financial reports and product attention, then face real supply
3. Starship 14 Preheat: Especially the upper stage of the spacecraft tower capture, which is better suited for rehashing "fully reusable economics" than a regular launch. As long as it succeeds, it can be heavily promoted that commercial space like a civil airliner is imminent.
4. Sudden releases without warning: Star Shield, Pentagon, AI computing power, or Starlink major orders
5. Long-term bundled speculation on expectations of a Tesla–SpaceX synergy or merger
Of course, will Musk go this far? Let's follow step by step to verify $SPCX The recent decline in US stocks has been no milder than in the crypto market. Nowadays, I'm actually more used to opening HTX, which feels convenient to use.
US stocks have basically reached a temporary peak, and people in the crypto world are rushing in to buy in, essentially the final blow at the end of the rally.
I predict that Q4 will be the best time to bottom-fish this year. As US stocks begin to adjust, $BTC is very likely to see the final round of declines.
Since June, I've been bearish on US stocks. The reason is simple: all my crypto friends have entered the market to build their positions, and when retail investors rush in collectively, it's often a signal of a top. Even when they occasionally made profits, I kept my hands tight and didn't follow the crowd, preserving my principal.
The massive influx of crypto funds into US stocks and the use of tech stocks as a new get-rich-quick track are typical signals at the end of a cycle. Once the Nasdaq begins to pull back, Bitcoin finds it difficult to break out of its standalone rally. When US stock liquidity tightens, BTC often becomes the first target for selling.
A deep correction in the US stock market will complete risk clearing, and BTC will simultaneously finish its final decline, washing out leveraged and restless speculative funds to lay the foundation for the upcoming rally. The real risk in the market has never been that no one is bullish, but that everyone firmly believes this market will be different.Behind the 826x market cap fluctuation, FWA turns NFT liquidity into a game of probability.
FWA stands for Fake World Assets. The name is a parody of RWA, but its approach targets a long-standing problem in the NFT market: buyers are reluctant to slowly choose among thousands of low-liquidity NFTs, and sellers often fail to get quotes after placing orders.
FWA drew nearly 84,000 transactions in just over a week, and NFT transactions have truly been "gachaped," compressing the process into a single draw.
One type of user puts NFTs into the on-chain pool and provides backing and standing bids; Another type pays an acquisition fee, and the protocol randomly assigns an NFT position. After drawing, users can hold the NFT or use the settlement path already available for that position.
Price discovery, random allocation, and exit liquidity are all packed into the same contract process.
The data indeed moves quickly. According to the FWA official index, as of July 28, the mainnet had cumulatively initiated about 84,000 acquisitions, of which about 78,300 were completed; active backing in the pool was about 2,180.50 ETH, cumulative acquisition-fee volume was about 8,539.72 ETH, and protocol fee contributions were about 1,163.67 ETH.
Here, two figures need to be distinguished: 8,539.72 ETH is the cumulative acquisition fee flow, not the total protocol revenue; The protocol fee threshold is closer to 1,163.67 ETH. The previously circulated revenue of about $1.3 million may correspond to an earlier on-chain snapshot.
FWA's rapid growth isn't just about NFT recovery. Random draws reduce selection costs, standing bids provide visible settlement paths, and card draw mechanisms amplify repeat participation. Originally low-frequency and time-consuming NFT transactions have been transformed into shorter, more exciting probability games.
But this comes at a cost. Having a standing bid does not mean participants lock in profits; NFT valuation, backing levels, and settlement results all change. The higher the number of draws, the higher the protocol fees, but user returns become highly diversified. Contract security, random number mechanisms, liquidity provider concentration, and NFT quality in the pool can all change the risks of this game.
According to third-party historical market cap data, FWA once rose from about $47,000 to $38.8 million, about 826 times. This is just a change in market cap range, not that every buyer will receive the same return. Low initial liquidity, concentrated chips, and focused trading can all lead to large early multiples.
The protocol receives fees, but it does not automatically equal the value capture of FWA tokens. How fees are allocated, whether buyback, burning, staking yields, or other token holding needs are formed, must be confirmed by public mechanisms and subsequent on-chain data.
Although NFTs haven't fully revived yet, when trading is transformed into card draws, dormant liquidity will indeed revive. Whether the hype can stay depends on whether users continue to use the protocol or are just chasing the next draw.今天以太坊走出极具迷惑性的极致过山车走势，前期冲高试探1982美元阻力失败后，盘中突然暴力下插最低1855.75美元，短短时间又快速收回大部分跌幅，重新站稳1915美元附近，单日微跌0.6%。一边是山寨存储币集体崩盘恐慌蔓延，一边是以太坊砸盘之后迅速收复失地，很多交易者看不懂，为什么主流老二会走出这种急跌急涨的锯齿行情？结合近期链上安全事件、美股资金动向、ETF资金流入、合约盘口行为拆解这一轮过山车行情背后的真相。 一、本轮插针过山车行情对应的真实市场事件参考 1. 跨链协议黑客归还盗币事件引发短期恐慌砸盘 盘面前期暴跌的导火索，来自全网播报的安全事件：攻击Across Protocol的黑客主动归还了超过300枚被盗以太坊$ETH ，这条消息在行情下跌阶段被社群放大解读。不少资金会惯性解读为链上漏洞集中暴露，短期规避以太坊链上资产，合约空头趁机挂单砸盘，在流动性短暂空档期打出1855的低位插针。而在恐慌情绪消散之后，市场发现本次盗币事件并没有大范围资产失窃风险，恐慌抛单立刻消失，买盘快速进场修复价格。 2. 美股开盘存储题材币集体崩盘，大盘恐慌情绪外溢带来被动抛压 今晚美盘时段SVida once again made a large-scale sell-put trade, unlike the previous long cycle; this time, most were exercised within a month, using over $7 million in margin.
Involving $EWY $MU $SNDK of the target, using big to win small and earning high win rates is worth learning from.
"Take MU 660PUT maturing in one month as an example: I sell 15 shares now = immediately earning $47,000 in profit. And if MU really falls below 660 in a month and triggers settlement, the price I get for $1m will be an extremely good price.""What is the core reason for the continued sharp decline in global semiconductors and AI?" Is Bitcoin going to be dragged down with it? 》
On Monday, semiconductor and AI stocks plunged, sending the market into a wail!
South Korea's KOSPI index plunged more than 8% intraday on Monday, triggering circuit breakers. Samsung Electronics plunged over 13%, while SK Hynix plunged over 14%.
This isn't a company's financial report crash; it's the first systemic stress test for the entire AI narrative.
Nvidia closed down 4.99% on Monday, wiping out about $250 billion in market value in a single day. Apple overtook and reclaimed the world's top market cap.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retreated more than 20% from its all-time high on June 22, officially entering a technical bear market. A "Black Tuesday" spreading from Wall Street to the Asia-Pacific is unfolding.
Why do semiconductor-related stocks keep falling? I have summarized five core reasons, each more deadly than the last.
First, valuations have skyrocketed.
The average PE ratio of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index constituents is more than twice the historical average. In June this year, Nvidia issued another $25 billion in corporate bonds after five years, providing funding for its massive investment and guarantee program.
Trees do not grow up to the sky. When earnings growth can't keep up with valuation expansion, prices are supported only by sentiment.
Second, the market is too wild, leverage too high, and they've resorted to 'circular financing.'
Nvidia guaranteed OpenAI $250 billion in financing and signed a $500 billion partnership with SK Group. Customers buy chips, NVIDIA pays, borrows money first, then buys goods, and the money circulates back into Nvidia's pocket.
The market calls this "circular financing." The credit market was the first to refuse.
The spread of Nvidia's five-year CDS surged 14 basis points in a single day. Oracle, Google, and Amazon all saw CDS rise.
A strategist at Société Générale said: "For hyperscale computing power companies, the focus now is on CDS, not EPS. This is the most accurate footnote to this round of decline: the market is now evaluating AI companies by "whether they will default," rather than "how much profit they can make."
Third, the money burned through, but profits didn't keep up.
AI capital expenditure growth far outpaced cash flow growth. The growth in AI business revenue for cloud computing giants is far behind the growth rate of capital expenditure.
The pace of burning cash far outpaced the rate of making money, and the capital market lost patience.
BlackRock recently stated that the recent sharp sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks is an "overreaction." However, the market is confusing the "shift in the AI competitive landscape" with the "collapse of AI investment."
Fourth, China's semiconductor industry chain has risen.
China's semiconductor exports in the first two months reached $43.3 billion, a year-on-year surge of 72.6%.
Changxin Technology goes public, and domestic DUV lithography equipment is reported to have made a breakthrough. SMIC and Huahong have brought prices down in mature process fields. In the future, chip prices will be pushed down by China to a bargain price within reach. Dutch lithography machine manufacturer ASML is destined to face bankruptcy.
Japanese and Korean semiconductor companies are fighting on two fronts: being dominated by NVIDIA in AI chips, and being chased by China in mature processes. SK Hynix ADR fell below the US IPO price. Samsung recorded its largest single-day drop since 2008.
Fifth, and at the very bottom, the market suddenly shifted its pricing model.
The four reasons above can ignite at the same time, and at the core, there's only one thing: the market suddenly stops talking about potential market space (TAM) and starts talking about PE, cash flow, and ROI.
It took only two weeks to switch from "dream pricing" to "realistic pricing."
What about Bitcoin? Will they be dragged down with them? It's not that simple.
The correlation between Bitcoin and semiconductors has dropped sharply from its peak. But the momentum money is pulling out.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $477 million for three consecutive days, ending a seven-day streak of about $1 billion in inflows. Bitcoin has fallen below 64,000 and is now struggling against the 50-day moving average.
But this time is different from 2022. Bitcoin is passively dragged down by falling risk appetite, not a direct victim of the AI bubble. On-chain supply is still locked, exchange holdings are declining—there is long-term capital buying, but short-term panic buying is not possible.
Where is the bottom of the semiconductor market?
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is standing above the 11,200-point threshold.
The 21-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, forming a short-term bearish signal. If a decisive close breaks below 11,200, the area below up to the 200-day moving average will be a large vacuum zone.
Where is the 200-day moving average? About 8,400 points.
From 11,200 to 8,400, there is no effective support in between. This means that once it breaks through, the index may face a significant deep pullback.
BTIG is more pessimistic: SOX could fall another 17%.
JPMorgan's statistics are worth referencing: in the past 15 years, SOX has experienced 17 drawdowns of about 20%, with 5 of those final declines exceeding 30%. Since the high on June 22, SOX has dropped about 20% cumulatively.
If this is a 30% level correction, the target is around 9,200-9,500 points; If we take an even more extreme comparison, comparing it to the 82% drop in the semiconductor sector after the 2000 internet bubble burst, the entire framework would need to be rewritten.
But the market always has two sides.
JPMorgan believes the current drawdown is a structural adjustment driven by technical aspects, position structure, and deleveraging, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
Institutional positions have normalized, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's PEG for 2026/2027 is at a historic low, meaning that if earnings expectations materialize, current valuations have not overdrawn forward growth.
No one knows where the real bottom lies. But a few things can be certain:
The core of this round of declines is the shift of pricing logic from "dreams" to "reality," a shift that won't happen within a week or two. If 11,200 is breached, there will be no decent technical support below until the 200-day moving average. However, the clearing of holdings and seasonal factors are laying the groundwork for a rebound.
Will Bitcoin crash because of the continuous decline in semiconductor stocks?
On Bitcoin's side, since BTC is also a high-risk asset, when semiconductor stocks and US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin will be sold off by institutions and naturally driven by the US stock market.
However, Bitcoin has already fallen earlier than US stocks, bottoming out, and is currently in the late stage of a bear market, with the real bottom estimated to be between 47,000 and 52,000.
❤️The long-term narrative of AI is not dead. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain above their respective 50-day simple moving averages—which is a constructive short-term momentum signal—but the broader crypto market is not. Currently, only 29 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are trading above their 50-day SMA, while as of Monday, 47 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages. The divergence is striking: the largest assets in the crypto market are still maintaining technical momentum, while the broader altcoin market (breadth) shows a clear bearish outlook—even worse than the similarly stressed tech heavyweight index; The index itself is also affected by semiconductor sell-offs and concerns over AI investment returns (ROI). Bitcoin is quoted at $63,408, still above its 50-day SMA. Ethereum, a barometer for altcoin performance, has recently outperformed Bitcoin—sparking hope: perhaps a trend of spillover from Ethereum to broader altcoin buy-in will emerge. However, Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, core PCE inflation and GDP data to be released later this week, and the Senate suspension of the Clarity Act for sanctions on Russia have removed the regulatory catalyst that once supported market positions related to the crypto industry. Matthew Ryan of Ebury pointed out that since the September rate hike has already been fully priced in by the futures market, a "hawkish" FOMC surprise has emerged, significantly boosting the dollar—by contrasting it with the DXY's inverse correlationAMD has plummeted, but Wall Street is still kneeling and shouting "buy"—are you familiar with this scenario with $AMD?
Looking at the market, AMD's current price near 446 was down nearly 10% in a single day on July 28, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6%. The entire AI hardware sector was collectively hammered. From 584 yuan in early July to 446 now, a 23% drop in one month. It's not exactly the same as SanDisk's trend, but exactly the same. Why the drop? Like SanDisk, the AI hardware sector has collectively been revalued. It's not AMD itself that's having problems; the entire AI hardware is taking the brunt. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, and AMD all plunged. There were two triggers: first, Nvidia's "circular financing" model for OpenAI raised questions about the break-even cycle for AI capital expenditure; Second, the market is beginning to question how much longer AI infrastructure spending can last. Nvidia only fell 1%, AMD dropped 10%, because market sentiment worsened. Sell the more elastic ones first, and AMD is the one with the greater elasticity.
Has the fundamentals changed? No change, maybe even better
AMD's Q1 revenue was $10.3 billion, with data centers $5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%. Q2 guidance was 11.2 billion, up 46% year-on-year. After the Advancing AI conference on July 23, Wall Street collectively raised their target prices: Jefferies went from 515 to 640, Bank of America from 560 to 620, and Baird doubled from 625 to 1250, maintaining a 'better outperform' approach. Among 51 analysts, 41 buy, 10 hold, and 0 sell, with a consensus rating of "strong buy." The problem lies in valuation. AMD with 522 has a TTM P/E ratio of 170 times and a forward P/E ratio of 59 times. The market has already priced in the full growth forecast for 2027; as soon as the financial report shows even the slightest flaw, it immediately launches a massive smash. The previous high of 584 is only 30% from now, and based on the Wall Street average target price of 570, the potential increase is only about 9%. The cost-performance ratio and risk are seriously mismatched.
What do you do next?
The August 4 earnings report is the biggest variable. Wedbush has already set expectations very high: 2027 earnings per share will jump from 12.33 to 14.74, a 20% increase. The higher the expectations, the greater the risk. If the earnings meet or even exceed expectations, it could return to 500 or even 550. If it falls short of expectations, below 400 is not a dream. At this level, just like SanDisk, it's not about fundamentals, but about betting on financial reports. Bottom-fishing before the earnings report is most likely another opportunity for institutions to lay in wait and feed you the prize. It is recommended to wait until the financial report is released on August 4As of press time, the US AI hardware sector continued to widen its losses, with SanDisk down 17.30% and Philadelphia Semiconductor down 6.03%. Western Digital fell 14.85%. Seagate Technology fell 14.03%, Mywell Technology dropped 10.73%, TSMC fell 4.09%, Intel dropped 8.90%, SK Hynix fell 9.93%, Micron Technology dropped 12.03%, Super Vision Semiconductor fell 9.74%, ASML fell 5.65%. What will happen next for A-shares? Tomorrow morning, memory chips tied to overseas cycles and focused on export, as well as overseas semiconductor foundry sectors, will be dragged down by external negative factors, making short-term selling pressure unavoidable. With overseas giants plunging, I believe Changxin Technology's IPO has hit the US stock storage chip monopoly. The market predicts that US AI hardware will be squeezed out by domestic brands, which is a negative fundamental for the US market itself, but will actually turn into a long-term positive for our domestic chips. I believe that semiconductor equipment, silicon wafer materials, local PCB leaders, and Changxin's upstream and downstream supporting enterprises are supported by Shenzhen's 20 billion yuan semiconductor project, combined with solid domestic computing infrastructure orders. Tomorrow's lower opening will be a rare opportunity to buy on dips, and the main players will take advantage of this to position their positions. Don't let the overnight US stock market crash and sell off your low-level shares. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share $SNDK on its first day 📈 Bitcoin Wicks To $62.7K, Then Buyers Drag It Back Toward $64K
A violent shakeout. Bitcoin plunged to $62,660 in early trading, then buyers stepped in hard and hauled it back to $63,863, up 0.22% on the day. That long lower wick came from panic that started outside crypto entirely.
📈 Where it stands:
Price: ~$63,863 (up 0.22%)
Session low: $62,660
Held above: the 50-day average
Fear and Greed: still fear
Here's what actually caused the dump, and it matters. South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker, an automatic pause exchanges use when prices fall too fast, as tech stocks sold off across Asia. That risk-off wave spilled into crypto and dragged BTC down with it. This wasn't Bitcoin breaking, it was global fear washing through. And the recovery off $62,660 shows buyers were waiting: wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added roughly 19,700 coins over the past eight days, real accumulation into the weakness.
But stay honest about the setup. The Fed decides tomorrow, July 29, and it's being called the hardest meeting to predict in years, with hike odds now near 36%, up from 26% last week. A wick recovery the day before a binary event is fragile by nature. BTC needs to hold $63,458, the level analysts flag as the line before $60,000 opens up. Breadth is weak too, only 29 of the top 100 coins sit above their 50-day average.
What to watch:
Hold $63,458 into the Fed and reclaim $65K after, and this wick was a shakeout.
Lose $63,458, and $62,000 then $60,000 come into play.
A knife-catch bounce before the Fed is not the moment to force size. Let Wednesday resolve it, then act.
Shakeout before the Fed, or fragile bounce before another drop?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL If the US stock market, KOSPI, and chip stocks plunge, the US dollar strengthens, and long-term yields remain high, then financial conditions have already been proactively tightened by the market. The Fed can completely avoid an immediate rate hike on July 29, but maintain a tough stance, letting high yields and market deleveraging complete the tightening on behalf of the Fed. This exactly aligns with the conclusion observed in the quote that "companies with excessive AI capital expenditures have effectively executed a rate hike through a stock price crash."
In summary, the FOMC is very likely to hold steady this time, and the answer will be revealed soon. #US Treasury yield decline Bitcoin once fell to $63,065 during the Asian session, then rebounded to about $63,500—down 0.3% since midnight UTC and nearly 3% in the past 24 hours—after South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.8% over a single piece of news: a Beijing-backed company reportedly began manufacturing deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines similar to those produced by Dutch company ASML. ASML is the main tool used by the West to restrict China's semiconductor development. KOSPI has dropped 34% from its peak a month ago. Samsung and SK Hynix led the KOSPI decline. ASML fell 5.8% on Monday and dropped another 4.7% in pre-market trading. Nasdaq e-mini futures fell to 27,930—the lowest level since May—and on Monday, NVDA dropped nearly 5%. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana fell 3-4% respectively. Bitcoin has performed more steadily compared to the Nasdaq and Asian stock markets. The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting today, with investors divided on whether the Wash policy will remain unchanged or raise rates on Wednesday. Bitfinex analysts point out that $68,500—the cost benchmark for short-term holders—is a key resistance level: if the price rebounds, this resistance will determine Bitcoin's mid-term trajectory. China's DUV Breakthrough — Why Is This Different from Previous Chip Sell-offs? The specific catalyst behind Tuesday's Kospi crash is fundamentally different from the "AI ROI doubts" that drove the previous round of semiconductor sell-offs on July 17-18. Those previous friendshipsPreviously, many people worried that Tradexyz might leave, but from both subjective and objective perspectives, such speculation is nonsensical. Today, the oracle malfunctioned, and some people are cutting $HYPE and xyz at lightning speed. There's no need—Shoku is an early builder of this ecosystem, xyz is currently the largest hip-3, contributing a significant share of buybacks. 50% of the revenue goes to burning HYPE. All hip-3s are like this—it's a simple relationship, not that complicated.
Subjectively, Shoku's philosophy is to build the HyperLiquid ecosystem together. Unit and Tradexyz both revolve around infrastructure that Hype lacks, so positioning them as part of the ecosystem is more important, just like the USDH team, which is willing to make concessions for ecosystem development.
Obviously, neither Unit nor TradeXYZ made any points airdrop expectations, nor did they announce any financing; Shoku is developing and operating with its own funds.
Objectively, TradeXyz's current backend cost is the 500,000 HYPE staked, plus POS income. For Shoku, it's not even a cost. The company originally intended to hold it doesn't really cost other project teams. Just look at Dreamcash—if it can't keep going and closes, just from HYPE alone can earn two or three times the profit.
If they develop their own backend and reach Hype's level, how much money and time would it cost? Polymarket's profitable status still depends on Polygon's burden. Not only does Hype's level far surpass Pol's, so why bother running?$BTC Turbulence throughout the day, $62,700 resistance line unbroken but weak upside — daily average -1.23%
🧭 Market review
BTC traded intraday between $62,700 and $65,060, opening high but closing low. In early Asian trading, it opened at $64,520 but fell to support near $62,700, rebounding to close at $63,700. ETH is also weakening in the $1,855–$1,955 range, with a deepening discount structure (premium -0.047%), and its elasticity is not as strong as Bitcoin's. On the open interest side, BTC $2.03B / ETH $1.32B remained high, but funding rates were both near zero — the overloaded long position pattern temporarily neutralized after reduction. SOL $74.22 dipped slightly with the broader market, with fluctuations converging.
🔍 On-chain insights
The Solana meme sector showed polarization today: Diary (+24,534% 24h) and BNUT (+9,147% 24h) were both new releases that launched this morning, strong burning but extremely thin liquidity ($97K/$45K), easy to get in but hard to get out. CATE broke out from the opposite side of the trending chart—down over 20% in 24 hours, holding 17,500 shares still selling on high volume, and $550,000 in 1h trading volume indicating both buying and selling. Cluster data shows CATE's rugPull probability is 2.7% + 49% for co-origin funds. Catching Flying Knife at this position is no different from giving away kills.
⚡ Smart money flows
Solana signals: OnlyMarms was swept up three times by multiple smart wallets, with a total purchase of $3,500+, but only 28–40% sold, showing a strong accumulation trend. Brötchen $911 bought with zero sell, showing signs of control. Negative example: ZAZU and Chud — Smart money buys and sells 86%/81% respectively, typical pump flick pattern: max out and leave, leaving retail investors to take over. Himgajria is even more impressive: the top 10 hold 83%, smart money has already moved 91%, and the chips on this table are highly concentrated.
At this point, OI hasn't shrunk but the rates haven't risen, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to die first—rather than adding positions and starting a fight. The heat of on-chain new listings is fading rapidly (CATE trades 200,000 transactions per day, but prices keep crashing), and smart money is clearly shrinking its front lines and selecting targets more precisely. Tonight, no chasing, no holding; watch overnight's US stock market guidance to decide the direction.
#暗影萨满$LIT
Direction: LONG
Entry zone: 2.205–2.225
Stop loss: 2.170
TP1: 2.2575
TP2: 2.300
TP3: 2.360
Reasoning: LIT reclaimed the full short-term MA structure and accelerated from the 2.15 support zone. Buyers remain in control, but the price is now testing the previous session high.
My approach: I’d enter on a controlled retracement and take an early partial at TP1. No need to chase above 2.24.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch 🚨 BlackRock CEO Larry Fink shares his view on the crypto market.
“Too much leverage built up in crypto — that’s what caused the washout.”
According to Fink, current levels are showing greater stability after the major deleveraging event.
Many investors are watching closely as confidence begins to return and market conditions improve.
Could this mark the beginning of a new Bitcoin accumulation phase? 👀
$BTC 🚀
#DailyOrbit
#FOMCRateWatch 📈 这一轮操作，我已经放弃做空 ETH，转而转向做空 BTC。
之前我是用 ETH 抵押换取 WBETH，再以 WBETH 作为保证金，开同等名义金额的永续合约空单。这个策略有三个明显好处：
1️⃣ 等效于直接卖出现货 ETH，无杠杆、无清算风险。
2️⃣ 不会损失 ETH 的质押收益，还能额外收取多头支付的头寸费率。
3️⃣ 交易所只需持有极少部分 ETH 作为保证金，大幅降低跑路或黑客攻击带来的潜在风险。
现在，我把策略更新为：用 WBETH 作为抵押，做空同等名义金额的 BTC，汇率按实时计算。
调整原因如下：MSTR 短期内大概率不会再买入 BTC，而 Bitmine 仍在持续增持 ETH；加上 RWA（真实世界资产）叙事正在推进。这一轮熊市，很可能会重现上一轮的节奏——BTC 和 ETH 的底部并不同步出现。
回顾上次周期：ETH 底部在 2022 年 6 月 18 日，价格 882 美元；BTC 底部在 2022 年 11 月 21 日，价格 15,476 美元。当时 ETH/BTC 汇率从 0.0500 一路攀升至 0.0698。
本轮，ETH 底部已大概率出现在 2026 年 6 月 6 日，对应价格 1,506 美元。因此，接下来做空 BTC 是更合理的操作方向。
最后看技术面：BTC 已明确跌破上升通道（见图1），而 ETH 仍处于通道下轨附近（见图2），两者形态和节奏明显分化。Brothers, let's analyze Trump: intraday high 1.49U, intraday low 1.451U, close at 1.472U, a slight 24-hour drop of 2.29%; Over the past 7 days, it has pulled back 5.3%, clearly unable to hold down, but there's still no rush. There's a high probability it will crash and break through high-leverage leverage. Around 1.35, you can gradually position long positions. During midterm elections, rallying will always be loud. The US storage sector plunged collectively, with risk appetite cooling in the global crypto market, and BTC and ETH weakening simultaneously; The overall popularity of the Meme sector has declined, with funds diverting to privacy and AI sectors. Political-themed tokens have lost their sector-based support, and TRUMP has weakened independently. At the same time, the Trump administration continues to promote crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks, and the market expects that policy easing will bring room for valuation recovery for political meme coins. In the first half of the year, multiple rounds of large-scale token unlocking and family-linked chip cash-out negative effects have been concentrated, with no short-term cliff-like large-scale unlock plans; Low-level chips have seen ample turnover, low-cost early profit-taking positions are nearing their end, selling pressure marginally weakening, and downside space is narrowing. The total token supply is 1 billion, with 237 million currently in circulation. The remaining team shares are being unlocked linearly and slowly, so there will be no sudden sell-off. Midterm elections are likely to rally before August to October, making it the most likely period in recent years. The presidential election in two years will be much more suspenseful. $TRUMP $BTC $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 This market is really hard to understand. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit is expected to surge 596%, with profit margins even crushing TSMC. Production capacity is sold until 2027, yet the stock price plunged 14% in a single day, with ADRs falling directly below the issue price? 📉
On one hand, there is the real economy driven by AI demand, with HBM holding the world's number one market share; On the other hand, there was a stampede sell-off triggered by a liquidation of Korean retail leveraged ETFs. Fundamentals are hot, but confidence is frozen. Goldman Sachs even said, "The storage shortage hasn't eased, but the stock price has collapsed."
At this point, the challenge is not understanding the industry, but the ability to withstand human panic. Tomorrow's earnings guidance is the key, but this drama of ice and fire is simply too surreal. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share $SKHYNIX on its first day Usually you don’t see panic selling ahead of results. But that’s exactly what’s happening.
Take $SNDK for example. Big Q4 report coming, expectations are high. Yet institutions are dumping it anyway.
That tells me semis could be running out of steam. Even if there’s a bounce, it might not last.
The broader issue: valuations are stretched. The moment there’s any wobble, everyone rushes to take profits.
That’s why you’re seeing money rotate into $BTC $ETH instead. Safer to bank gains there.
Tonight, the overall risk-averse atmosphere in U.S. stocks was very strong. The storage sector and AI computing chips were all heavily sold off by capital. SanDisk, Micron, and Nvidia all fell consecutively, with the Nasdaq index under pressure throughout. Only Apple's stock price bucked the trend and climbed steadily, hitting an intraday record. Its total market value smoothly broke through $5 trillion, once again overtaking Nvidia and firmly holding the top spot in the world's market capitalization. There are four main reasons for emerging from this polarized rally. 1. The capital flow has completely shifted, refusing to chase AI hardware companies that burn heavily in cash In the first half of the year, funds poured into chip makers like Nvidia, betting on the dividends brought by AI computing power expansion. Now, investors are gradually waking up: constantly spending money to build hardware infrastructure cannot quickly earn stable returns, and corporate debt burdens continue to grow. Additionally, news that NVIDIA will provide a huge guarantee to OpenAI has heightened market concerns, with funds selling off chip stocks. Apple's pace of AI deployment is conservative; it does not need to spend heavily to build large computing clusters; it only rents computing power as needed to adapt smartphone smart functions. R&D expenses are controllable, with no huge losses, and with massive cash flow, it naturally attracts capital. Previously, many complained that Apple's AI R&D progress was too slow, but now it has become its biggest advantage against market fluctuations. 2. Fed Rate Meeting Approaches, Funds Group Together with Quality Blue Chips Hedging All Traders Are Awaiting the Implementation of Interest Rate Policies in the Early Morning Period. If the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, overvalued growth stocks...LATEST: CZ has backed crypto license passporting across ASEAN, saying firms licensed in one market should face a lighter approval process when entering another.
$BTC At 2 a.m. tomorrow, the Fed will announce its decision. The market expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. But the real impact isn't the frequent changes, but Walsh's tone and his firm tone. $BTC $ETH Why is the crypto world so concerned about this? BTC is built on liquidity. If rates don't loosen, money rises. When money rises, risk assets lose appeal. If the dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields rise, BTC gets suppressed. Conversely, as long as the tone softens a little, the market can catch its breath and bounce back Right now, BTC is fluctuating between 63,000 and 65,000, clearly awaiting the outcome. Here are three possible scenarios for you in advance: First, interest rates remain unchanged, with a mild tone, so there's a high chance of a small rebound. Try pushing to 66,000 to 68,000, and knockoffs will be happy too. Second: interest rates won't change, but Wash's stubbornness emphasizes inflation risks, hinting that rates can still be raised in September. BTC should first look for support at 62,000 or 64,000. Whether it can hold and see how the market digests it. Third, a real rate hike is happening. The probability is low, but don't take it lightly. If it really happens, the short-term outlook will be bad Anything below 60,000 could be touched. No matter the outcome, the fluctuations in the hours after the decision will definitely be amplified. High-leverage brothers, weigh your options—don't wait until you get a shot to regret not cutting back. Short-term focus on 2 a.m. on the 30th. For the long term, one meeting can't turn the tide, but emotions can make you sick. #KoreaStocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on first day. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX Masterclass starts tonight, I'll show you📊 Grayscale data highlights strong momentum for $HYPE ETFs.
At a similar market-cap stage, $HYPE ETF inflows are reportedly outpacing the early demand seen in $BTC , $ETH , $SOL, and $XRP. 🚀
Institutional interest continues to grow as investors look beyond the largest crypto assets and explore emerging opportunities.
The key question: can $HYPE maintain this momentum as the market evolves? 👀
#CXMTDebutShockwave #NvidiaBacksOpenAI OKB的前景，现在不是简单的“能涨到多少”的问题，而是一个“脱胎换骨后，能否证明自己”的问题。$OKB
最大的变化：2025年8月的“比特币式”改造
最大的事情发生在2025年8月。OKX一次性销毁了约6500多万枚OKB，把总供应量永久锁定在2100万枚，跟比特币的稀缺性设计一样。同时，OKB正式成为OKX自建的公链——X Layer的独家Gas代币。 这一下，OKB从“交易所积分”变成了“公链原生资产”。消息出来当天价格一度涨超160%，从45美元附近冲到接近135美元。现在的价值逻辑：从“事件驱动”转向“生态驱动”
以前OKB的价值靠回购销毁、Launchpad这些事件撑着，涨得快，砸得也快。现在的想象空间是：
· 链上硬需求：X Layer上的每一笔转账、每个智能合约交互，都要消耗OKB作为Gas费。
· 治理权：质押OKB可以参与X Layer的治理投票。
· 生态激励：OKX成立了生态基金，吸引项目入驻X Layer。
理论上是“越多人用X Layer，OKB的需求就越大”。
最大的“雷”：IPO的靴子和OKB的尴尬
OKX正考虑赴美IPO，而且已经在合规上下了血本：法律和合规团队扩到接近600人。但交易所想在美股上市，最大的监管雷就是“平台币是否是证券”。SEC之前起诉币安时，明确把BNB称为证券。所以OKX的算盘可能是：把OKB从“交易所发的工具币”包装成“公链上的Gas代币”，淡化它与OKX的绑定关系。但这和“IPO成功会大幅拉高OKB”的预期是矛盾的。有分析直说：IPO时OKB可能会涨，但上市后OKX大概率会公开切割与OKB的关系，让它进入自由交易状态。这种“既要又要”的尴尬，是OKB前景里最大的不确定性。一句话总结：长期价值看X Layer，短期走势看消息OKB的经济模型变硬了，稀缺性也锁死了。如果X Layer真的能跑起来，长期价值是成立的。但围绕IPO的合规博弈，会让它的短期走势充满不确定性。靠消息拉盘可以，靠真需求托住价格，才是它接下来最大的考验。OKB's prospects are no longer simply about "how much it can rise," but about "whether it can prove itself after a complete transformation." $OKB
The biggest change: the "Bitcoin-style" transformation in August 2025
The biggest event will happen in August 2025. OKX burned about 65 million OKB at once, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million, just like Bitcoin's scarcity design. At the same time, OKB officially became the exclusive gas token of OKX's self-built public chain—X Layer. This marked OKB's transformation from "exchange points" to "public chain native assets." On the day the news broke, the price surged over 160%, surging from around $45 to nearly $135. Current value logic: shifting from "event-driven" to "eco-driven"
Previously, OKB's value was propped up by events like buybacks and burns, launchpads, and so on—it rose quickly and crashed just as fast. The current imaginative space is:
· On-chain hard requirements: Every transfer and smart contract interaction on X Layer consumes OKB as gas fees.
· Governance rights: Staking OKB allows participation in X Layer governance voting.
· Ecosystem incentives: OKX has established an ecosystem fund to attract projects to join X Layer.
In theory, "the more people use X Layer, the greater the demand for OKB."
The biggest "thunderbolts": the boots of the IPO and the embarrassment of OKB
OKX is considering a US IPO and has already invested heavily in compliance: its legal and compliance teams have expanded to nearly 600 people. However, the biggest regulatory pitfall for exchanges wanting to list on the US stock market is whether the platform token is a security. When the SEC previously sued Binance, it explicitly referred to BNB as a security. So OKX's plan might be to package OKB from an "exchange-issued utility token" into a "gas token on the public chain," downplaying its binding relationship with OKX. But this contradicts the expectation that "a successful IPO will significantly boost OKB." Some analysts bluntly say: OKB may rise during its IPO, but after listing, OKX will most likely publicly sever ties with OKB and allow it to enter a free trading state. This awkward "having it both ways" is the biggest uncertainty in OKB's prospects. In short: long-term value depends on X Layer; short-term trends depend on news. OKB's economic model has become harder, and scarcity has been locked in. If X Layer really gets up to speed, its long-term value is solid. However, the compliance game surrounding IPOs will make its short-term trend full of uncertainty. Relying on information to drive prices is fine, but real demand supporting prices is the biggest test going forward.And it was released on August 7th, just the day after the unlock date. This is definitely a market support move. Whether he can actually support it or not is unknown, but the fact that the project team is taking action and conveying this information is very important. Also, after the Starship 13 launch, he has already started warming up for 14, and this time the highlight will be the tower recovery.
He is very likely to release positive news repeatedly based on milestones to push up the stock price. Musk is an expert at market cap management both in the crypto and stock worlds. He even personally orchestrated the step-by-step asset packaging to facilitate SpaceX's IPO $SPCX 📰 特朗普刚递橄榄枝又威胁炸毁海峡！BTC $63,262悬了
事件概述
特朗普7月28日释放了本轮冲突中最矛盾的外交信号：一边说"现在是跟伊朗达成协议的好时机"，希望别打人家桥梁和电厂；一边话锋一转，说谈不拢的话美国可以"非常轻松地摧毁霍尔木兹海峡"，只让美国点头的船过。还补了一刀——伊朗必须正式声明不拥有核武器，否则一切免谈。
说白了，左手递烟右手拔刀，市场直接看傻了。
深度解读
为什么这条新闻重要？
老铁们，这事的关键根本不在"谈不谈"，而在于特朗普把霍尔木兹海峡这张牌直接拍桌上了。
霍尔木兹海峡每天过约2000万桶石油，占全球海运原油近五分之一。特朗普说"可以轻松摧毁"，这是把极限施压玩到了新高度。本质上是美国不想真打伊朗，但需要摆出"随时能动手"的姿态逼德黑兰坐下来签协议。
问题在于，这种话术对传统外交或许管用，但对加密市场来说就是往不确定性这个火药桶里扔了一根点着的烟。
当前BTC已经跌到$63,262.55，24小时砸了3.03%。ETH更狠，$1,878.83，直接跌4.15%。地缘紧张叠加模糊信号，风险资产最先被抛。
和之前几次中东升级不一样的地方在于：这次的信号是极度矛盾的。市场最怕的不是坏消息，是看不懂的消息。你到底是想谈还是想打？这种薛定谔式的外交态度，比明确的利空更消耗市场信心。
对市场的影响
短期来看，特朗普这番话直接压制了风险偏好，影响链路很清晰：
第一层：霍尔木兹海峡威胁→油价飙升预期→通胀预期抬头→美联储降息预期推后→BTC和ETH承压下行。这条逻辑链是最直接的杀伤。
第二层：地缘不确定性本该利好避险资产，但现在BTC的避险叙事早就不灵了。资金会优先涌向黄金和美债，加密市场反而成了流动性抽走的受害者。
第三层：如果后续真走向谈判桌，那就是利空出清的拐点。但现在这个阶段，模糊信号会持续发酵，情绪面只会更差。
参考2019年特朗普对伊朗搞极限施压那波，当时BTC短期内波动了8-10%左右。这次加密市场本身就在弱势区间，$63,262这个位置如果扛不住，$60,000整数关口几乎是必到的。
讲真，ETH更让人担心。$1,878已经跌破了关键心理位$1,900，如果BTC继续往下砸，ETH大概率跑不赢大盘。
操作思路
🎯 影响预判
- 币种：BTC / ETH
- 方向：利空📉 预测跌
- 时长：BTC 12小时 / ETH 24小时
💡 我的判断很直接：现在不是英雄抄底的时机。特朗普的矛盾信号意味着不确定性只会加码不会消散。BTC盯紧$63,262这个位置，一旦有效跌破，别伸手接飞刀，等$60,000附近再看有没有企稳信号。ETH已经破位，观望就完事了。真正的进场信号是两个：要么出现实质性谈判进展，要么恐慌指数跌到极度恐惧区域。
觉得分析到位的老铁，转发到你的币圈群里，让更多人少踩坑
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ 不构成投资建议，预测仅供参考Last night, the volatility in US stocks was indeed quite volatile, with significant declines in both the storage and semiconductor supply chains. Attributes it to two main drivers: one is Changxin's listing, and the other is progress in DUV mass production. Changxin's global market listing is actually already prepared. People have already considered that Changxin's capital expenditures will increase, but due to equipment limitations, there is little concern. However, yesterday's news of progress in DUV mass production triggered market volatility, with breakthroughs beginning to appear in the most difficult areas. Foreign investors have started pricing in future expansions, which may exceed expectations. So we saw fluctuations yesterday in US storage, semiconductor equipment, and wafer fab, reflecting this event. Of course, there is still a long way to go from small-scale mass production to stable mass production, but as soon as scarcity is weakened, the market will begin to set prices. Another issue is Nvidia's decline, which seems to be a bit of market discussion, so I need to touch on it briefly here. Although Nvidia hasn't risen for a while, it has remained sideways, and market expectations for it haven't changed much. Yesterday, something quite important happened: it began providing financing guarantees for OpenAI. We also took a closer look at this matter. Nvidia is discussing about leasing a 10GW data center project built by SoftBank's energy subsidiary in Ohio, providing about $250 billion in financing guarantees. The report also states that Nvidia is discussing financing up to about $350 billion for OpenAI's chip procurement. This is not the first time NVIDIA has provided leasing guarantees for ecosystem partners, according to the deadline🚨 Everyone is focused on AI chips—but the next battleground could be memory.
China just made a major statement.
CXMT (ChangXin Memory) debuted on the STAR Market with a reported ¥3.31 trillion valuation, making it the largest listed company in China's A-share market. 🔥
The global memory industry is no longer just a story about Samsung and SK Hynix.
In recent weeks, Anthropic secured memory supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix, while Nvidia continued expanding its AI partnerships across Korea.
Now, China has officially entered the spotlight with a publicly traded memory heavyweight.
Markets noticed.
The KOSPI jumped more than 1.7% at the open before giving back much of those gains, as investors weighed the implications of a potential third major force in the DRAM market. 📉
Going forward, two metrics deserve close attention:
📌 DRAM pricing trends
📌 CXMT's production capacity expansion
If supply grows faster than AI-driven demand, pricing power across the memory industry could come under pressure—including for today's market leaders.
The key question is:
Can AI demand support three global memory giants, or will increased competition lead to a pricing battle? 🤔
How are you positioning for this theme—Korean semiconductor stocks, AI leaders, or China's domestic chip sector?
#CXMTDebutShockwave #DailyOrbit #FOMCRateWatch Tonight, US stocks showed a deep V pattern, plunging in the morning session and pulling back late in the session. The main and second Bitcoin markets generally move in line with US stocks, but their linkage momentum has weakened and the price fluctuations vary greatly, so they cannot be considered fully tied to the trend. 1. Major Trend: Consistent Direction, Nasdaq Declines and Crypto Circles Under Pressure 1. First Half of US Opening: Storage Chips and Nvidia Collectively Dump, Nasdaq Continues to Decline Market Fears the Federal Reserve Will Keep High Interest Rates Will Cause Global Funds to Avoid High-Risk Assets. Bitcoin fell back below $64,000, Ethereum plunged simultaneously, and a large number of long positions were liquidated across the network, perfectly matching the panic downturn in US stocks. 2. Funds flowed back into the US stock market at the close, losses narrowed sharply. The market expects the Fed will not raise rates, US Treasury yields have fallen, and tech stocks have started a recovery rebound. Bitcoin and Ethereum have also gradually stopped falling and rebounded slightly, no longer hitting new lows at the bottom, and the overall direction continues to follow U.S. risk sentiment. Both are essentially dollar-denominated risk speculative assets; when liquidity tightens or easing expectations align, the rise and fall inevitably move in the same direction. 2. Obvious Decoupling Details: Huge Volatility Gap, Crypto Sector Less Voluptuous Than US Stocks 1. US stocks are a fierce battle between sectors, with volatility amplified exponentially. The storage sector plunged more than ten points in a single day due to Changxin's entry as a negative factor; Apple and Microsoft rose against the trend. Internal funds are constantly shifting and pulling, so the market has significant room for volatility. But this negative news exclusive to the storage industry does not translate directly to Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is not troubled by shrinking chip company profits and is not deeply dragged down by individual stock negative factors, so the price fluctuations have stabilized considerably. 2. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's decision,A small rebound yesterday turned around and today hit a big bearish candle—the market is selling off so hard!
But all of this is normal. That's what a bear market looks like. If you haven't experienced it, the old bear is here to show you.
The cruelty of a bear market is deeply impressed by veteran investors; they can keep selling until you no longer believe in life.
Today's large bearish candlestick marks the starting point, not the end, of a new round of sell-offs.
The main downward wave of the bear market, the end of wave A, is still far from here.
Today, GJD did put in some effort, probably spending about 30 billion on the market support, but it didn't hold it back. Without GJD to support the market, the damage would have been even worse.
GJD is a relief for emergencies, not for the poor; it aims to save liquidity and avoid the market experience of three consecutive days with a thousand stocks hitting the daily limit down, like in 2015.
Some say that when tech stocks fall, other sectors will experience a seesaw effect and rise in a rally, so you should buy traditional blue-chip stocks.
I'm not considering buying any sector for now, because in a bear market, no sector is a safe haven. You can avoid it for a while, but not forever. If you slap your hands randomly, one palm strikes and you're either injured or dead—don't play around!📌 2014: After the coin price fell below the green line, it bottomed out 124 days ago
📌 2018: After the coin price fell below the green line, it reached a bearish bottom for 188 days
📌 2022: After the coin price fell below the green line, it entered a bearish bottom for 193 days
📌 2026: After the price falls below the green line, it will drop to $57.8k in 146 days
┌── 🐼 Details of on-chain data ──┐
The green line in the chart represents LTH Spent Price (the price spent by long-term holders), which is the average purchase cost of $BTC sold by long-term holders (holding ≥155 days) on that day. It reflects the weighted average cost of buying the tokens spent (sold) by the batch of tokens
When the coin price falls below the LTH Spent Price and lasts for over 100 days until the bear bottom, it means long-term holders have entered a phase of continuous loss-making sell-off. This reflects the market entering a deep capitulation phase, with even strong players being cleaned out—a typical historical signal corresponding to the end of a bear market and the approaching cycle bottomEVERYONE IS PANICKING. I'M GETTING READY TO BUY.
Most people see a stock making lower lows.
I see a company moving through its largest supply event since the IPO.
Here's why.
Right now, only ~5% of SpaceX shares are freely trading.
That limited float helped fuel the rally to $225...
And it's one reason the stock has also faced heavy selling pressure.
Over the coming months, additional shares are expected to become eligible for trading:
→ Jul 24 — Flight 13 ✅
→ Aug 4 — Q2 Earnings
→ Aug 11 — First 20% Unlock
→ Aug–Oct — Five 7% Unlocks
→ Q3 Earnings — Additional 28% Unlock
→ Dec 8 — Final Lockup Expiration
That's a significant increase in potential supply.
More supply can create selling pressure if demand doesn't keep pace.
That's why I'm staying patient.
But here's what many investors overlook...
Once the lockup schedule is behind us, the market can shift its focus back to the business itself instead of upcoming share releases.
Starlink.
Launch leadership.
Starship.
Some investors see uncertainty.
I see a period worth watching closely.
If I decide to start buying $SPCX, I'll share it here.
Turn notifications on.This round, I adjusted my shorting target, switching from shorting $ETH to shorting $BTC.
The original strategy was to stake ETH into WBETH as collateral, and the perpetual contract would short an equivalent amount of ETH. The advantages are clear:
1. The effect is equivalent to selling spot ETH, with almost no leverage and no risk of forced liquidation;
2. No loss of ETH staking interest and continuous charge of long funding fees;
3. Only a small amount of ETH is deposited on exchanges as collateral, greatly reducing the risk of platform theft or absconding.
The new strategy still uses WBETH as margin to short BTC equivalent to the exchange rate.
The logic is: MicroStrategy is very likely to pause BTC holdings in the long term, Bitmine continues to buy ETH, and with the RWA sector advancing, this bear market is likely to repeat the previous trend, with ETH and BTC hitting bottom in sync.
In the 2022 bear market, ETH's low was on June 18 ($882, ETH/BTC exchange rate 0.05), and the BTC low was on November 21 ($15,476, exchange rate 0.0698); this ETH low likely already appeared on June 6, 2026, and BTC still has room to decline, so the market shifted to short BTC.🚨 SEMICONDUCTOR PANIC SPILLS INTO GLOBAL TECH — CRYPTO FOLLOWS LOWER
The semiconductor “domestic substitution” narrative is triggering a broad global tech risk-off move, with crypto largely following passively rather than suffering from a crypto-specific shock.
🔴 1. CHIP STOCKS LEAD THE RISK-OFF
Two catalysts are driving the semiconductor sell-off:
① China’s reported progress in immersion DUV lithography is intensifying fears around domestic substitution. Equipment names were hit hard:
ASML −8% AMAT −7.7% LRCX −8.5%
② Changxin Memory (CXMT) surged +466% on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut, reaching a reported ¥3.31T market cap and reinforcing the domestic substitution narrative.
The spillover is spreading across Asia:
🇰🇷 KOSPI −10% intraday SK Hynix −13% Samsung −12% 🇯🇵 Nikkei breaks 63,000, −3% 🇨🇳 Sci-Tech 50 −4% 🇭🇰 Hang Seng Tech reverses from gains to losses
KOSPI and KOSDAQ both triggered sidecars as algorithmic selling intensified.
Crypto is down roughly 3% — significantly less than the 8–17% declines across major semiconductor names.
This looks more like global tech risk-off spilling into crypto than a crypto-native crash.
📉 2. MEMORY STOCKS ARE GETTING HIT HARD
SNDK −17.2% SK Hynix ADR −13.9% Hynix Korea −10.7% DRAM −9.8% MRVL −8.9% MU −8.5% INTC −6.2%
The MU / SNDK / Hynix trio collapsing together points to a broader sector-wide valuation reset rather than an isolated company-specific event.
⚠️ Don’t rush to catch the falling knife. Wait for stabilization.
Meanwhile, QQQ is down only around 2.3%, while GOOGL remains green, suggesting capital is rotating rather than the entire equity market entering a full-scale crash.
MSTR is also holding up, showing relative resilience despite the broader tech sell-off.
📊 3. BTC TECHNICAL STRUCTURE IS WEAKENING
BTC: $63,190 24H: −3.1%
The daily chart is flashing its first major death-cross signal of this move.
BTC is now below the EMA50 and MA100/200, while MACD has crossed bearish above the zero line and momentum is fading.
Key levels:
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch
$BTC $ETH Why did US tech stocks first panic and fall on the same day, only to be forcibly pulled back to recover the losses in the latter half? 1. Four Core Drivers of the Wild Decline in the First Half 1. Domestic storage entered the market, completely shattering expectations of overseas storage monopolies, causing the storage sector to collapse first. Changxin's mass production breakthrough, and memory and hard drives can no longer be arbitrarily controlled and raised by the US and South Korea. Funds immediately became pessimistic about the profit potential of SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix, and collectively sold off at the open. SanDisk's intraday stock plunged over 15%, with SK Hynix falling below its IPO price, causing the entire storage sector to collapse. 2. Nvidia faces major negative news, AI computing power sector collectively sold off. Rumors suggest Nvidia will provide OpenAI with a massive $250 billion guarantee, coupled with concerns about AI circular financing inflating the market. Investors fear that big players will endlessly burn cash and fail to recover profits. Nvidia plunged nearly 5% in a single day, while AMD and ASML chip equipment stocks also plunged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging more than 4% intraday. 3. On the eve of the Fed's rate meeting, the market is extremely panicked, everyone fears rate hikes. The July rate decision is scheduled to be announced that night, and the market is betting on a rate hike probability that has risen to 36%. People worry that if high interest rates persist, the valuations of high-priced tech stocks will keep shrinking, so they are selling growth stocks to hedge risk, with funds flocking to Apple and traditional blue chips to avoid risks, according to Sina Finance. 4. AI chip prices surged too much earlier, leading to concentrated cash-out and trampling at high profits. In the first half of the year, computing power and storage stock prices doubled and soared, accumulating massive profit-making chips. As soon as the negative news came out, everyone...Looking at the timing of historical cycles bottoming out, $ETH generally bottomed out earlier than $BTC. We can clearly analyze the data from the three bear markets:
1. 2017-2018 Bear Market: ETH and BTC basically bottomed out in sync, with very little time difference
2. 2021-2022 Bear Market: ETH low appeared on June 18, 2022, BTC hit low on November 9, 2022, ETH was 144 days ahead
3. This round of the 2026 bear market: As of July 28, ETH's lowest closing in this round was June 6, BTC's lowest closing was June 30, with ETH leading only 24 days, moving closer to synchronization
At the same time, the low point of the ETH/BTC exchange rate coincided with the low point of ETH's price, further confirming this pattern.
Additionally, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been declining continuously from 2021 to 2025, with a cumulative drop of nearly 75%. The long-term weakness has eroded market confidence. However, as institutions deploy in the smart contract sector, RWA is implemented, and the staking ecosystem matures, as long as the overall market bottoms out, ETH's valuation recovery space still exists. Whether ETH can regain market trust will depend on ecosystem implementation and the pace of regulatory policy advancement.
The above is only a review of historical data and does not constitute investment advice.Brothers, let's analyze ZEC: intraday high 491.87U, intraday low 456.2U, current price 472.2U, 24-hour decline 6.5%; The weekly cumulative decline was 13.2%. In the short term, a rebound in US tech stocks may drive a small rebound in short profits, but the long-term trend remains bearish. ZEC saw 300 whales transfer 74,002 ZEC (equivalent to 35.75 million USD) into leading exchanges in a single day. Privacy shielding pool funds continue to be unlocked and transferred out, with major players cashing out profit-taking positions at high levels with thousandfold annual gains, and circulating selling pressure continues to be released. In the 490-520 range, a large amount of spot and contract long positions accumulated, and the continuous decline triggered stop-loss liquidations. The total 24-hour long liquidation reached 41 million USD. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, market risk aversion surged, with BTC and ETH both plunging more than 3%. Over 160,000 liquidations in the market within 24 hours led to collective withdrawals from highly volatile niche currencies; Funds in the privacy sector have been widely switched to the FHE-compliant new ZAMA, while traditional privacy coins have suffered widespread losses, with no incremental buying to support the sector. The ZEC Ironwood mainnet upgrade originally scheduled for July 21 was postponed to July 28, when the block was highly activated. The market speculated on the upgrade narrative a week in advance, and after the positive news materialized, short-term speculative funds all exited and realized profits. The EU's latest crypto regulatory document explicitly restricts fully anonymous private transactions, requiring platforms to strengthen KYC risk controls on privacy tokens. The market is concerned that major ZEC exchanges are reducing trading pairs and restricting spot/contract liquidity, allowing funds to avoid regulatory risks in advance$BEAT
The current price is around 3, with a 24-hour low of 2.48 and a high of 4.68, showing extremely volatile fluctuations. Trading volume has also increased significantly, nearing $70 million in 24 hours.
The contract side is even more obvious.
Open Interest (OI) is currently around $32 million, down more than 30% in 24 hours. When the price previously crashed, OI also dropped significantly, indicating a large number of positions have been liquidated.
Funding rates are still negative, with Binance around -0.02% and OKX about -0.03%.
So the recent trend looks like repeated wash trading.
Earlier, the price rose above 4, attracting many long positions, then suddenly dropped to around 2.5, liquidating a batch of longs.
After such a big drop, some started shorting, funding rates turned negative, then the price was pulled back from the low, causing shorts to be squeezed.
This back-and-forth between longs and shorts has basically been the pattern in recent days.
Another important point is that about 21.25 million BEAT tokens will unlock on August 1, which is a considerable amount.
So the recent large volatility might be related to turnover before the unlock.
The market already knows about the August 1 unlock, so this negative factor is likely being traded in advance. On the actual day, it might not necessarily crash directly.
Right now, I mainly watch OI.
If the price continues to hover around 2.8 to 3 and OI starts to increase significantly while funding rates remain very negative, be cautious of a pump-and-dump targeting shorts.
If the price breaks below 2.8 and OI increases significantly, that’s bearish, indicating new shorts are entering.
2.48 is the previous low; if this level breaks again, the market outlook will be quite bleak.
On the upside, watch 3.0 first, then 3.3 to 3.5.
I’m still bearish for now, but shorting this coin carries high risk.
The most important indicators for BEAT these days are how price and OI move together.
Price down and OI down often means positions are being closed or liquidated.
Price up and OI down could mean shorts are covering.
Price up and OI up means longs are re-entering.
Price down and OI up is more like new shorts starting to push down.
The August 1 unlock is already known, so the main question is how the market will trade this in advance over the next few days.Just patiently wait for Bitcoin and $BTC to complete the bottom formation.
Recently, I reviewed news related to the CLARITY Act. The probability of its implementation in August is basically slim, and the market generally expects progress to be in November. This timing perfectly matches my previous prediction of a bottoming out in October.
Looking back at the monthly chart structure, the candlestick patterns of this bear market and the previous bear market share many similarities. Purely from a technical perspective, the bottoming period ranges from as short as 3 months to as long as 5 months.
While US stocks have been falling sharply recently, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, indicating that previous chips have undergone thorough shakeout, retail investors' floating funds have been thoroughly cleared, and Bitcoin has basically entered the latter half of the bear market.
After enduring for so long, we're finally about to hit the bottom range.After two full hours of trading, the tech sector was completely split into two camps: one plummeted, the other steadily rising. Let's start with the sector that lost money and fell the most, which was also the sector with the fiercest sell-off tonight: storage, memory, hard drives, and AI computing hardware were all dumped by capital and forced to flee. SanDisk plunged over 23% over two days, with the largest drop in the first two hours reaching 14 points, the largest decline in the entire market. Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate all declined in tandem, while South Korea's SK Hynix fell below its issue price shortly after going public, hitting its lowest price since listing. Nvidia fell nearly 5% intraday, AMD and ASML lithography machine leaders both fell more than 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.23%, according to Cailian News. Tesla and SpaceX followed suit, falling by around 1%, with Musk's assets weakening throughout. The core driver of the decline was Changxin Technology's entry into the storage industry. The era of decades when the US and South Korea monopolized memory pricing for profits has ended, institutions have collectively lowered their earnings forecasts for storage companies, and funds are rushing to sell cyclical hardware stocks. Coupled with the Fed's interest rate decision about to be announced in the early morning, the market fears maintaining high rates, making high-valuation chip stocks the easiest to cash out and sell. On the other hand, a steady tech leader with steady gains and a tight hedge group throughout: Apple, up over 1%, once again overtook Nvidia in market value and reclaimed the top spot in global market cap. Microsoft rose nearly 2%, Google surged over 2.3%, and major software and consumer electronics companies with solid cash flow became safe havens for capital. 🚨HERE’S WHY THE WHOLE MARKET TANKED TODAY
Over $1.4 trillion got wiped out from global markets in just a few hours.
Equities sold off
Metals got hit
Crypto followed right behind
On the surface it looked like another random red day. It wasn’t.
This was a domino effect. It started in one place and spread everywhere.
Here’s what actually went down:
1. AI panic kicked it off
The most crowded trade on earth suddenly got questioned.
Reports came out that China hit a big breakthrough in domestic DUV lithography. That sparked fears the West’s long-term chip lead isn’t as safe as everyone thought.
At the same time, new AI funding headlines added more doubt.
Nvidia is reportedly talking about hundreds of billions in financing for OpenAI’s infrastructure.
And the 4 biggest AI players are set to spend ∼$700 billion on AI capex this year.
For months the question was "How big can AI get?"
Today it flipped to "Who’s actually paying for all of this?"
Once semis rolled over, everything else followed.
2. Then macro piled on
Fed decision is tomorrow — one of the biggest of the month. Traders didn’t want big risk into it.
Rate hike odds also got repriced way higher vs last week.
That sent the U.S. dollar up and crushed risk assets.
A stronger dollar also hit metals hard. Gold fell, silver dropped more, platinum and palladium got smacked too.
It was a full risk-off move.
3. Crypto got an extra punch
The Senate pushed the CLARITY Act further back to focus on Russia sanctions and other bills.
That’s not why the whole world sold off, but it’s why crypto bled even harder.
4. One more quiet trigger
USD/JPY ran back toward 164. Now everyone’s watching for Japan to intervene in FX again.
Japan’s already stepped in multiple times this year. When the yen gets to these levels, global carry trades and positioning get nervous fast.
Any one of these alone doesn’t erase $1.4 trillion. All of them together? It does.
That’s why today’s dump makes sense when you connect the dots.
I post news daily and track every major macro event to keep you ahead of it.Big Tech earnings delivered a reality check for the AI trade.
Alphabet and Tesla both reported, and despite solid results—Google Cloud revenue grew 82%—their stocks fell as investors focused on higher AI capex guidance.
The market's mindset has shifted.
Not long ago, massive AI spending was rewarded as a sign of long-term vision. Now, it's being evaluated as a cost that must generate a clear return.
This is the same theme that pressured semiconductor stocks all week—only now it's showing up on the demand side.
The question is no longer whether AI will transform industries.
It's whether hundreds of billions in AI investment can produce meaningful returns before the revenue catches up.
Crypto offers a similar lesson. Markets can embrace powerful narratives, but once sentiment changes, investors demand results—not just expectations.
Today's risk-off move, with Bitcoin around $64K, reflects that broader "prove the ROI" mindset spreading across technology and risk assets.
Just my perspective—not financial advice.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #OKXOrbitTopics #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
As soon as the airstrike stopped, the ship began to move.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) confirmed that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is recovering. After Trump halted 13 consecutive days of airstrikes last week, the Omani delegation flew to Tehran that very day. The shipowners acted honestly—as long as it didn't explode, the cargo that needed to leave had to go.
But the word "rebound" depends on what you're comparing it to.
Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day. From the 24th to the 26th, even with a pause in airstrikes, daily cargo ship traffic remained in the single digits. On Monday the 27th, six cargo ships passed through. Although traffic has recovered somewhat compared to the near zero traffic during the air raids, compared to before the war, the current traffic volume is less than a fraction.
The numbers are indeed rising—from 0 to 6—but they correspond to normal levels, which means they haven't recovered.
What's even more troublesome is that the ship is sneaking by.
In the early hours of the 27th, six ships with their navigation and positioning systems disabled attempted to navigate through the southern "illegal and unsafe" channel; one ship had an accident, and the rest were "guided" back to the Persian Gulf by Iran. With GPS on for fear of being attacked, with the GPS turned off, for fear of trouble—shipowners are stuck in a dead-end dilemma: whether to leave or not.
Oil prices have already fallen as a sign of respect. Brent fell more than 6% to near $86, and WTI fell below $83. But the ceasefire agreement hasn't been signed yet, and the strait traffic volume remains in single digits. The 75% probability of a ceasefire is already reflected in oil prices, and the remaining 25% of the real risk is the breakdown of negotiations. Once the negotiations collapse, oil prices will rebound much faster than they will fall.
My judgment: The airstrike pause allowed the ship to move, but it was still far from returning to normal. The outcome of negotiations between both sides is the only thing that can determine the future trajectory. If the deal is reached, oil prices will continue to fall, risk assets will keep recovering; Negotiations fell through, oil prices rebounded violently, and everything fell to zero. Until the agreement is officially signed, this "stop-and-go" situation will not end. At least for now, the ship is moving, which is better than not moving at all.
$BZ $CL