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Starship made a beautiful soft landing, but SpaceX's stock price is still searching for its own landing site.
The 13th Starship test flight successfully released 20 new-generation Starlink satellites, and the spacecraft ultimately achieved a gentle splashdown in the Indian Ocean. This not only validates the new spacecraft and insulation system, but also provides key data for deploying Starlink V3 with Starship at the end of the year.
However, SpaceX's stock price has recently fluctuated around $118, below its IPO price of $135. The market's concern is not whether the rocket can fly, but how quickly Starlink, launch businesses, and future direct-to-mobile services will contribute profits from valuations exceeding one trillion dollars.
Technically, focus on support between $110 and $115; a break below could enter double-digit territory; The first resistance is above the $135 issue price, with further resistance at $150.
SpaceX's technology is getting on track, but its valuation still needs to accept gravity. Are you willing to pay for space infrastructure ten years from now?
$SPCX #SpaceX #Starship
This does not constitute investment advice.🚨 The biggest mistake traders can make right now? Confusing higher prices with stronger liquidity.
The charts are moving up—but the market structure is telling a very different story.
Here's what stands out:
📈 BTC, ETH, and SOL are climbing.
📉 Open Interest is cooling.
💧 Order book depth is getting thinner.
That's not what a broad bull market usually looks like.
Instead of fresh capital flowing across the market, liquidity is staying concentrated in a small group of names.
💧 Liquidity leaders:
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA
📉 Still lacking participation:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP
What does that mean?
It suggests traders aren't increasing risk across the board. They're rotating into a handful of high-conviction plays while the rest of the market struggles to attract meaningful buying interest.
Right now:
₿ $BTC remains the primary liquidity magnet.
♦️ $ETH continues to attract institutional attention.
☀️ $SOL is still the key high-beta Layer 1.
Most altcoins, however, are simply following price—not attracting new capital.
What would turn me more bullish?
✅ BTC breaks higher with Open Interest expanding.
✅ ETH and SOL see rising volume alongside the move.
✅ Capital starts rotating into multiple altcoin sectors—not just a few isolated names.
What keeps me cautious?
❌ BTC grinds higher while Open Interest keeps falling.
❌ Market depth continues to shrink.
❌ High-beta leaders like $HYPE or $DOGE lose momentum and drag sentiment lower.
The market isn't weak—but it isn't broad-based either.
Price can rise without liquidity. Sustainable trends usually can't.
Don't just watch the candles.
Watch where the money is actually flowing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Liquidity
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, crude oil, and the US dollar indices are fully interconnected
Disclaimer: The following is only a summary of market macro logic and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and carry great risks.
1. US Dollar Index DXY: The Core Macro Anchor of All Assets (the Most Critical)
A stronger US dollar index means global dollar liquidity is tightening; A weaker index = loose liquidity, and the underlying layers of all products are constrained by it
1. US Dollar ↔ Gold (Normal Strong Negative Correlation)
1. Standard Pattern: DXY rises → gold falls; DXY falls→ gold rises
Gold is priced in US dollars, and as the dollar appreciates, overseas buyers pay more for gold, suppressing demand; Gold has no interest, and a stronger dollar often comes with rising real US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and causing capital outflows.
2. Exceptions Rise in Sync (Panic Crisis): During geopolitical wars and global financial crashes, funds buy US dollars in cash for safe haven and gold for systemic risk, both rising together.
3. Priority: Real interest rates > the US Dollar Index. When rates surge sharply, even if the dollar is weak, gold will still plunge.
2. USD ↔ Crude Oil (Normal Negative Correlation)
Global dollar settlement for crude oil, a stronger dollar suppresses demand for bulk commodity purchases; The dollar depreciates, funds flow into commodities to hedge against inflation, pushing oil prices higher
Exception: Hard supply shocks (OPEC production cuts, Middle East shipping blockades) completely ignore the dollar, causing oil prices to soar independently. The July 2026 Red Sea conflict is a typical example, where oil prices soared while the dollar strengthened and gold fell.
3. USD ↔/BTC/ETH (moderately strong negative correlation, high beta amplified volatility)
1. Normal: DXY is rising, and crypto is under pressure across the board; DXY is pulling back, but BTC and ETH have rebounded much more strongly than gold and crude oil, showing extremely strong resilience.
2. Core logic: Crypto is a risk asset, institutional allocation logic aligns with Nasdaq tech stocks, a strong dollar = global liquidity contraction, high-risk assets being sold off first; Interest rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar lead risk money to flood into crypto.
3. Strong divergence scenario: Independent crypto events (large ETF funds, regulatory positive/negative factors, large on-chain liquidations) may deviate from the dollar's trend in the short term.
2. Linkage relationships among internal varieties
1. Bitcoin, BTC ↔, Ethereum, ETH (highly positive correlation, 90% market synchronization)
• The major trend always moves in the same direction: BTC pushes up ETH and follows the rise; BTC plunges ETH with a larger drop (ETH has higher beta volatility);
• Divergence only comes from within the crypto world: DeFi, Ethereum upgrades, and Layer 2 benefits will temporarily outperform BTC; Halving and spot ETF funds will dominate BTC's standalone market; In extreme crashes, ETH generally falls 30%-100% more than BTC.
2. BTC/ETH ↔ Gold (Dynamic Positive Correlation, Sector Market Switching)
1. Easing inflation trend: rising in sync (US dollar depreciation and anti-inflation narratives resonating, recent correlation 0.4-0.5), BTC has risen several times more than gold;
2. Liquidity tightens in the bear market: Deep divergence, gold hedges and resists declines, BTC continues to plunge;
3. Pure panic stomping (stock market crash, chain liquidations): Both fell together, cash reigned supreme in the market, and gold couldn't withstand the selling pressure in the short term. BTC's decline crushed gold's;
Market consensus: BTC is a highly speculative digital asset, while gold is a traditional safe-haven store of value, not a stable substitute.
3. Gold ↔ and Crude Oil (weak positive linkage, very prone to divergence)
1. Scenario for synchronized rises: Geopolitical conflicts, global high inflation cycles, oil prices driving inflation expectations, positive for gold;
2. Inverse divergence (frequently occurring in 2026): Oil prices surged→ market expects the Fed to maintain high interest rates to suppress inflation→ U.S. Treasury yields soared→ gold fell, resulting in a seesaw pattern of oil rising and gold falling;
3. When supply dominates oil prices (production cuts, transportation crisis), the two trends are completely independent.
4. BTC/ETH ↔ Crude Oil (Moderate Positive Correlation, Indirect Linkage)
The two have no direct pricing linkage; their linkage relies on macro transmission:
Oil prices have surged→ inflation has risen→ the Fed's hawkish expectations have strengthened→ the dollar has strengthened, liquidity tightening→ and cryptocurrencies are under pressure;
Falling oil prices → easing inflation→ rising expectations for rate cuts→ benefiting BTC and ETH;
In risky conditions, crude oil and crypto will be simultaneously hit by risk sell-offs.
3. Complete Summary of Linkage under Four Market Environments (Practical Comparison)
1. Risks rise, US dollar weakens (positive news for the whole market)
DXY declined→ gold rose, crude oil fluctuated with a strong trend, and BTC/ETH surged sharply; Gold rose moderately, with crypto showing the greatest elasticity.
2. Risk Aversion and Dollar Strength (Mostly Bearish)
DXY surged→ crude oil came under pressure, and BTC/ETH plummeted; Gold comes in two types: simple rate hikes bear gold, while geopolitical crises have strengthened against the trend.
3. Inflation shocks and soaring crude oil prices
In the short term, oil prices rose, putting pressure on gold (with interest rate expectations suppressed); BTC weakened in tandem; If inflation continues to ferment, gold will strengthen again in the future.
4. Liquidity crisis and market-wide stampede
The US dollar stands out as the sole stronger; Gold has seen a slight correction; Crude oil, BTC, and ETH have all plunged, with crypto dropping the most exaggerated.
4. Key trading reminders
1. The US Dollar Index is the primary reference, but you can't look at DXY alone; it must be paired with real US Treasury yields (gold core) and risk sentiment VIX (crypto core);
2. ETH is much more volatile than all other categories, and under the same macro signals, its price fluctuations are greater than BTC, gold, and crude oil;
3. Independent news such as geopolitics, supply, regulation, and ETF funds should break established linkage patterns at any time; avoid mechanical reverse benchmarking $BTC $ETH $CL 早盘大幅下探后直线拉升，外围信号影响A股存储赛道
今天A股最刺激的一幕，发生在存储芯片赛道。
早上开盘前，外围信号其实挺乱的。美股上周五涨跌不一，道琼斯涨了0.46%报51947点，但费城半导体指数跌了4.25%到11818点。日韩股市倒是高开，韩国综指涨1.7%，SK海力士和三星电子都涨了。
然后A股一开盘，存储板块直接炸了。
3000亿市值的存储龙头兆易创新，盘初快速下挫触及跌停。华虹宏力跌近9%，普冉股份跌超7%。半导体指数一度跌超4%。整个存储赛道哀鸿遍野。
可就在同一时刻——
长鑫科技正式登陆科创板，开盘报49.5元，较发行价8.66元暴涨471%，总市值冲到3.31万亿，直接超越工商银行成为A股总市值“一哥”。盘中一度涨超5倍，市值触及3.7万亿。单日成交额突破1000亿，A股历史上头一只。
一边是千亿市值的存储老龙头跌停，一边是新上市的“存储之王”登顶A股。同一个赛道，冰火两重天。
然后更戏剧性的事情发生了。
存储板块开盘低走后，盘中走出V形反转。半导体指数从跌超4%硬生生拉回涨超4%。截至午间收盘，存储芯片指数涨了1.32%，板块200只成份股里142只上涨。至纯科技“2天2板”，成都华微涨超15%。
早盘割肉的人，估计现在心态已经崩了。
外围到底在传递什么信号？
先说海外存储巨头的情况。美光科技刚交了一份炸裂的财报：第三财季营收414.6亿美元，同比暴涨346%，调整后每股收益25.11美元。毛利率干到约85%。但即便如此，美光股价还是暴跌了25%。市场在担心什么？担心存储超级周期可能进入尾声。
可另一边，存储“双雄”又搞了个大动作。三星和博通签了2000亿美元、5年的先进存储芯片供应协议。SK集团跟英伟达等巨头搞了7500亿美元的长期合作。加起来接近1万亿美元的长协大单。
SK海力士2026年的HBM产能已经全部被锁死，2027年的也被长单覆盖了。三星、美光同样通过长协把高端存储需求锁得死死的。
长协这个东西很关键。
以前的存储芯片行业什么德行？涨价—扩产—过剩—崩盘，跟过山车似的，周期一来原厂哭、周期一走下游哭。现在不一样了。英伟达、谷歌、微软这些大客户直接跟你签5年以上长协，还不设价格上限。这等于把周期波动给熨平了。行业盈利的稳定性，跟以前不是一个量级。
今天美股期指也给出了信号——纳指期货涨1.6%，标普500期货涨近1%，存储概念夜盘全线走高，SK海力士涨近6%，美光、闪迪涨超4%。
再说回A股的基本面。
存储板块这轮行情不是瞎炒的，是有业绩支撑的。佰维存储预计上半年净利润同比暴增3200%到3422%。江波龙更夸张，上半年净利润预增622倍到744倍。睿创微纳净利润同比增长242%到270%。
价格端更猛。TrendForce的数据显示，2026年二季度传统DRAM合约价环比涨了58%到63%，NAND Flash合约价涨了70%到75%。华强北一套32GB DDR5内存从去年的900块飙到快3800块，1TB固态从410涨到950。京东16GB DDR5笔记本内存从299涨到699。
苹果都扛不住了。全线平板和电脑涨价15%左右，库克亲口说“存储芯片成本上涨是主要推手”。
资金面的信号也很直接。
今天午间题材主力资金净流入排行，存储芯片以579.54亿排在第二位，仅次于小米概念的637亿。隔夜挂单数据更夸张，存储芯片、国产算力龙头买盘占比达到83%到86%。资金抱团的意愿非常强。
当然也有分歧。杠杆资金在回落，截至7月24日两融余额26879亿，较前一交易日少了223亿。北向资金上周五单日净卖出约163亿。多空双方在这个位置博弈得很激烈。
那存储赛道现在到底什么逻辑？
个人看法是三层逻辑在叠加。
第一层，AI驱动的需求爆发。一台高端AI训练服务器需要的DRAM容量是传统服务器的8到10倍。SK海力士董事长预测明年AI半导体需求增长60%到100%，整体存储半导体需求增长50%到60%。这个量级的需求增量，不是短期能填平的。
第二层，供给端的结构性硬缺口。三大原厂把70%到80%的先进制程DRAM产能挪去搞HBM了。通用DRAM和NAND面临长达3年的结构性硬缺口。全产业链库存只有2.6到5周，远低于8到12周的安全线。普通内存交货周期从4到6周拉长到40周以上。这不是想扩产就能马上扩出来的。
第三层，国产替代的长期叙事。长鑫科技全球DRAM市场份额已经冲到7.67%，全球第四、中国第一。有消息说长鑫跟字节签了5年70亿美元的大单。全年收入可能超过500亿美元。这次IPO募资几百亿砸向产能扩建和先进工艺研发。产业链从设备、材料到封测、模组，都在跟着受益。
但话说回来，今天的盘面也告诉我们一件事：
再硬的逻辑，也架不住短期情绪的剧烈波动。兆易创新早盘跌停，长鑫科技暴涨5倍，同一个赛道、同一个时刻，有人在恐慌抛售，有人在疯狂追涨。市场永远是这样，分歧最大的时候，往往也是信息最混乱的时候。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $SNDK #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This FOMC is interesting, with several variables moving simultaneously.
After the ceasefire expectations between the US and Iran emerged, oil prices dropped sharply. The energy component, which was suppressing the inflation narrative last week, suddenly loosened. Initial jobless claims were 187,000, below expectations, indicating the labor market is still holding up. These two data points combined actually give the Fed more room to maneuver, but that doesn't mean they will use it.
Powell's recent logic is clear: good data does not equal rate cuts; it's about the trend. One week of data improvement does not constitute a trend, and he won't surprise the market this time just because oil prices fell.
I believe the Fed will most likely hold steady this time, but the wording will loosen. If the statement includes phrases about easing inflation pressures or if the dot plot shows some members raising the number of rate cuts expected this year, that would be the real signal. The market is currently pricing in rate cuts starting in September; this FOMC's role is to confirm or deny that expectation, not to act directly.
In the same week, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings reports will be released. Capital expenditure guidance is the real market focus. If tech giants collectively raise AI infrastructure spending, the compute power narrative gains another leg, which could boost crypto and chip sectors more directly than the FOMC statement.
FTX's fifth round of $900 million creditor payouts starts on July 31, overlapping closely with the FOMC timing. Historically, after FTX payouts land, short-term liquidity improves, and the crypto market has reacted similarly.
$BTC has reclaimed 65K, the fear and greed index is back to 30, sentiment is recovering but not yet in the greed zone. This is not a time to chase highs but to wait for confirmation.
Before 2:00 AM Thursday, the direction is unclear. Wait for the statement wording, Powell's press conference, and Microsoft and Meta earnings. These catalysts all fall in the same week, so volatility is certain, but direction depends on the data.
I am not adding positions here; I will wait for Thursday's results.
DYOR Not investment advice The most genuine bottom signal for ETH has appeared! Has smart money quietly locked in and laid an ambush?
Ignoring market hype and only looking at real on-chain data, recently Ethereum has shown a particularly solid and rarely noticed reversal signal: the validator exit queue has directly dropped to zero.
Simply put: now no one is in a hurry to unlock, withdraw funds, or dump to exit.
During the recent market panic, a large number of validators queued to exit staking, everyone was afraid the market would continue to fall, rushing to escape for fear of being trapped. But now the trend has completely changed, no one is rushing to sell anymore; instead, funds wanting to stake ETH are lining up, and new capital entering even has to wait more than forty days to activate.
This data really speaks volumes.
First, the market's largest potential selling pressure has completely disappeared. Many people previously hesitated to bottom-fish, worried about a large amount of staked ETH unlocking and dumping. Now that no one is retreating, it means retail panic selling and institutional flight have basically cleared out, and the market's most fragile and fearful phase is over.
Second, smart money is quietly locking in and positioning. Those queuing to stake now are mostly long-term institutions and whales. Compared to holding spot idle, a steady staking yield of about 2.8% is very cost-effective in a bear market with choppy conditions. Whales are no longer cashing out to wait and see; instead, they are locking in real capital, which is the most genuine endorsement of the future market.
Third, the ETH supply-demand structure has completely reversed. No exits plus a large inflow of locked funds means fewer circulating tokens in the market, and floating selling pressure continues to weaken. Tokens being continuously locked is the most solid fundamental bullish factor.
Of course, to be honest, this signal does not mean an immediate surge. The short-term market will still fluctuate and grind to form a bottom; it won't happen overnight.
But what can be confirmed is: the worst phase of the market is over. Panic selling has ended, confidence is slowly returning, and now is the bottom range where whales quietly build positions and tokens concentrate.
For retail investors, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The current price risk is far less than the potential reward; no need to go all-in, just gradually build spot positions in batches.
The token structure has quietly improved, and the rest is left to time to wait for the market to warm up. #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 $ETH $ESP
Today's incident is worth breaking down: Triple-A wallets have been experiencing abnormal outflows, with cumulative losses rising to about $11.8 million, involving multiple chains including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, TON, and Solana. The market's first reaction was that ESP surged over 20% in the short term, but mainstream coins barely moved.
Why do I think it's important? This incident, combined with South Korea's seizure of $4.92 billion in illegal foreign exchange transactions (some involving cryptocurrencies) and Steak n Shake's announcement to include Bitcoin payments in its strategic reserves, points to the same core message: the liquidity of crypto assets is undergoing structural divergence.
The deduction chain is like this: the Triple-A abnormal outflow is not a single incident but a systemic vulnerability in multi-chain hot wallets. After funds flow out of the Bitcoin and Tron networks, new deposits still flow in and out, indicating that attackers may be exploiting the vulnerability. The South Korean Customs Service's seizures show that regulatory crackdowns on cross-border crypto fund flows are intensifying, with export companies using cryptocurrency instead of US dollars for settlement has become a key target for monitoring. Meanwhile, Steak n Shake's Bitcoin reserve strategy shows that brick-and-mortar companies are increasingly accepting Bitcoin, but only for Bitcoin, not altcoins.
How should we understand funding? In the short term, the incident impacted the security of multi-chain assets, but Bitcoin, due to its reserve narrative, actually gained a safe-haven premium; ETH and SOL are under short-term pressure due to outflow chain issues; ESP's rally is more like a speculative hedge against the "multi-chain vulnerability" rather than a fundamental improvement. How might BTC, ETH, SOL, and ESP be interconnected? If BTC holds above $68,000, it could drive ETH and SOL to rebound, but ESP's independence depends on whether it can break free from event-driven factors.
Two observation conditions: 1) If BTC consolidates around $68,000 on reduced volume and ETH does not fall below $3,400, multi-chain panic may subside, and ESP's gains will return to rationality; 2) If an officially confirmed recovery plan emerges for the Triple-A incident and Korean regulations do not expand the scope of the crackdown, altcoin resilience may recover; otherwise, ESP's rally is unsustainable.
Risk Warning: Event-driven rallies usually lack fundamental support, and subsequent developments in South Korean regulations and wallet vulnerabilities may trigger secondary selling pressure. Against the backdrop of liquidity divergence, any rise in a single currency should be wary of the risk of a pullback.今天韩国股市发生了什么（事实）
KOSPI收盘跌0.76%，早盘一度涨1.7%，波动较大
跌的主要是芯片股：三星电子、SK海力士分别收跌0.20%和0.97%，均在季报发布前走弱
韩国同日宣布了规模达9500亿美元的AI计划
为什么这件事值得A股投资者扫一眼
三星、SK海力士在存储芯片和HBM（高带宽存储器）领域具有全球定价影响力，而HBM是AI算力卡的关键上游部件
因此，它们季报前股价走弱这一现象，可视为全球AI产业链短期情绪的一个观测样本，但并不等同于A股必然跟跌
是否存在传导，取决于今晚美股（尤其英伟达）如何定价这一信息，以及明天A股开盘前市场整体风险偏好
明天可以观察的几个坐标（非操作建议）
观察点 说明
今晚英伟达及纳指表现 如果美股对韩国芯片股走势没有明显反应，说明市场将其视为韩国个例
明早纳指期货开盘 A股AI板块开盘情绪常受其影响，可作为一个参考，但不是决定性因素
A股光模块/服务器板块开盘幅度开盘价是市场资金集体博弈的结果，比任何预判都更真实
三星、SK海力士季报数据（周二周三发布） 这才是更关键的信息，季报中的业绩指引比今天单日股价波动更有参考价值
一个提醒
A股AI板块的定价更多取决于国内流动性、产业政策、企业盈利能力等内部因素。外部事件（如韩国股市某一天的波动）对A股的实际影响通常小于市场情绪层面的短期扰动，两者之间存在本质区别，不能简单划等号。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $SAMSUNG $ETH continues to attract attention as capital gradually rotates out of Bitcoin and into the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value. Historically, this has often been an early sign that investors are becoming more comfortable with risk before liquidity eventually spreads across the broader altcoin market. Whether the current move develops into the beginning of a larger altcoin rotation or proves to be only a temporary catch-up rally remains one of the biggest questions facing traders. 📊
📰 Adding to the optimism, institutional interest in Ethereum remains strong. Continued demand for spot Ethereum ETFs, expanding real-world asset tokenization, and growing activity across Layer-2 networks are reinforcing Ethereum's long-term investment case. These developments have helped $ETH ETH outperform many altcoins even as the broader market remains selective.
However, the macro environment still calls for caution. Recent U.S. weekly jobless claims came in stronger than expected, highlighting continued resilience in the labour market. A stronger employment picture reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly, increasing the possibility that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer.
Higher-for-longer interest rates generally strengthen the U.S. dollar and tighten financial conditions, which can weigh on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. As a result, investors are closely watching upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and broader economic indicators for clues about the timing of future policy changes.
For now, the market remains balanced between improving crypto-specific fundamentals and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. If Ethereum continues to attract institutional capital while macro conditions stabilize, it could strengthen the case for a broader altcoin recovery. Until then, disciplined risk management and patience remain essential as markets navigate the next phase of the cycle. 🚀
#CXMTMemoryIPO Bitcoin has returned to $65,000, but what truly determines the market may not be the market that has finally caught its breath these past two days. With the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, international oil prices fell about 5% in a single day, risk aversion cooled, and Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000, clearly reviving market risk appetite. To put it bluntly, this rally is mostly due to the macro environment helping the market, rather than the crypto market suddenly receiving some super positive news.
However, compared to how much it rose today, I'm more concerned about another issue in the U.S.—the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
With less than two weeks left until the U.S. Congressional summer recess, this may be the last window for the bill to pass this year. If they miss this and later encounter political agendas like midterm elections, the chances of success this year will drop significantly. The biggest disagreement now is no longer about whether to regulate crypto, but about ethical clauses such as conflicts of interest among government officials, with all sides still locked in a tug-of-war.
I think this is actually a positive sign. A few years ago, the market debated whether cryptocurrencies should exist; The current discussion is "how to regulate it." The direction has changed. As long as the regulatory framework is finally implemented, traditional institutions like banks and funds will feel more confident entering the market, which is a long-term positive for the entire industry.
In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors such as oil prices and the Federal Reserve; But in the long run, what truly determines the industry's ceiling is whether regulation is clear.
If the Clarity Act is ultimately postponed until next year, do you think the market will take the opportunity to adjust, or will you think it's just a matter of time before the bull market continues? Feel free to share your thoughts.Price fell below the 5-day moving average of 0.0101u and the 20-day moving average of 0.0103u, with all short-term moving averages shifting from support to strong resistance; the mid-to-long-term 200-day moving average at 0.0091u serves as key support below. Contract funds: Short-term long contracts accumulated in the 0.0099u-0.0105u range; after price broke the 0.0100u support, many long positions stopped out in bulk, with total long liquidations across the network exceeding 190,000u in 24 hours, and funding rates shifting from positive to a bearish pattern. On-chain chips: Early private placement holders split small token amounts and transferred them to exchanges for profit-taking; cold wallet hoarding has completely stalled; exchange spot inventories continue to rise, long-term funds are watching and exiting, with no new funds supporting the market. 1. Monthly token unlock expectations are priced in early, with selling pressure continuing to suppress (the core trigger). On August 9, community private placement shares totaling 3.75 million OFC will unlock and enter circulation, with the market anticipating institutional concentrated cash-outs post-unlock; short-term bottom-fishing funds actively take profits to avoid subsequent selling pressure, causing a direct cutoff of incremental funds and triggering price decline. 2. The World Cup theme hype has completely faded, with no new narrative support. Previous gains relied entirely on football event hype; after the event cycle ended, platform daily active users declined, with no new events or co-branded collaborations; tokens are only used for fan membership rights, lacking high-frequency on-chain consumption scenarios, losing long-term buying support. 3. Ecosystem implementation progress falls short of market expectations, and cooperative functions are limited. Polymarket prediction market linkage functions cannot be widely opened due to European regulatory policies, and expected token trading🚨 $BTC Money Flow Index Points to a Familiar Cycle—But That Doesn't Necessarily Mean the Bull Market Is Over.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is once again forming a pattern that closely resembles the major correction phases seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In each of those cycles, the market followed a similar sequence: a euphoric top, a sharp selloff, a relief rally that restored optimism, another deeper liquidity flush, and finally an extended accumulation phase before the next major uptrend.
This cycle stands out because the MFI has already entered levels historically associated with bear markets, yet Bitcoin continues to trade at much higher price levels than in previous cycles. That divergence may suggest capital is rotating within the market rather than leaving it entirely. Long-term holders appear to be absorbing supply while leveraged and speculative positions continue to unwind.
If history remains a useful guide, another period of volatility and consolidation could still lie ahead before the market establishes a lasting bottom. Major bear markets rarely end after a single sharp decline—they typically conclude through months of reduced volatility, fading speculation, and steady accumulation as weaker participants exit and larger investors quietly build positions.
For traders, this is a market that rewards discipline over emotion. Chasing every short-term bounce can be costly, while waiting for confirmed trend shifts often provides better opportunities. For long-term investors, periods like these have historically laid the groundwork for the next major expansion.
History doesn't repeat exactly, but Bitcoin's market cycles have consistently shown similar characteristics. The greatest opportunities often emerge when liquidity dries up, sentiment reaches extreme pessimism, and most participants believe the trend is finished.
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch 1. Overall assessment: The current market has shifted from a weekend volume contraction recovery to a structure led by ETH, followed by BTC, with SOL showing high Beta catch-up gains. BTC rose about 1.42% in the past 24 hours, ETH rose about 4.43%, and SOL rose about 2.06%; AKE once surged from 0.002810 to 0.006900, then quickly fell back, but still gained nearly 29% in 24 hours. This round of gains cannot be simply understood as four assets simultaneously entering a healthy trend. ETH has the most complete coordination of price, volume, and open interest; BTC and SOL saw open interest decline noticeably during their rises, more like short covering and existing leverage withdrawal; AKE experienced extreme volume spikes, bidirectional liquidations, and a sharp drop in open interest, making its volatility nature completely different from the other three assets. Binance market overview shows the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.23 trillion, up 1.43% from the previous period; trading volume is about $49.5 billion, up 28.11%; the Fear and Greed Index is 39, still in the fear zone. Volume-price ratio improved over the weekend, but market sentiment has not entered a consistent optimistic phase, and chasing funds have not yet fully diffused. On the macro level, there is a short-term easing. After the US suspended military strikes on Iran, the US dollar index returned to around 101.21, Brent crude oil briefly dropped about 4.2% to $92.74, and Asian stock markets, US stock index futures, and bonds all received support simultaneously. However, this is only a temporary ceasefire; Red Sea oil and gas facilities still face attack risks, and geopolitical premiums have not completely disappeared. Over the weekend, the market continued to rise, reaching a high near 65,700. Monday afternoon stretches are often hard to sustain. At the same time, multiple top divergences appeared at the 15-minute level. A correction is currently occurring to repair the situation. However, the price movement is slow, suggesting there is still room for further decline. Below is an important watershed, watch around the 64,200 level. If it breaks down, it is believed that the pushing wave will break down. So just control the subsequent rebound
Controlled within the 652-655 range.
Below the 64,500-64,200 range, see a breakout to see 633# Changxin Technology listed, adding variables to global storage competition #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? $BTC $MUU MUUSDT | Current price 958.49, increase +1.57%
Storage concept stocks continued their strong rebound. Resistance above is 986, support below is 930, and the sector's momentum remains strong. #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落 ⚠️ $XAG LONG LIQUIDATIONS HIT THE MARKET! ⚠️
A $5.92K long liquidation at $59.18 suggests bullish traders were forced to exit as silver (XAG) moved lower. Long liquidations can increase selling pressure in the short term, but they may also remove excess leverage and create opportunities once the market stabilizes. Trade with patience and wait for confirmation.
Spot: $59.18
Support:
$58.80
$58.20
Resistance:
$59.60
$60.00
Next Target (Bearish):
$58.20
Entry Zone (Short):
$59.20–$59.50 (after a rejection)
Stop Loss (SL):
$59.90
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: $58.80
TP2: $58.20
TP3: $57.60
Pro Tip: Don't enter a trade based only on liquidation data. Wait for price confirmation, follow the trend, and always use a stop loss to manage risk.
This is market commentary for educational purposes, not financial advice.
#FOMCRateWatch #OilDropsOnCeasefire #FOMCRateWatch Regulatory uncertainty spreads, market breadth tightens sharply. Only 8 compliant alts resist sector-wide selling.
Regulatory sentiment A/D ratio at 0.33, most small-cap tokens facing panic selling. Only 8 compliant, institutional-friendly tokens hold bullish volume structure. All unregulated niche coins bleed heavily.
The 8 regulatory safe plays:
$LTC, $DOGE, $TRX, $ONDO , $ZEC , $POL , $ARK, $FXS
The 92 high-risk regulatory laggards:
$MEME, $ALT, $NICHE, $DEGEM, $LOWCAP, $ANON, $RARE, $HIDDEN, $NEW, $TREND and dozens of risky tokens.
Regulatory risk market = prioritize compliance and liquidity. These 8 tokens avoid panic downside pressure.$DOGE consolidating near support after the correction.
Demand continues supporting current price action.
EP
0.198–0.205
TP
0.214
0.225
0.238
SL
0.191
Price remains above a key support area despite recent weakness. A reclaim of nearby resistance could trigger expansion toward higher targets.
Let’s go $DOGE
#CXMTMemoryIPO Ethereum ecosystem breadth weakens, Layer2 tokens show selective strength. Only 6 L2 alts maintain strong trend structure. L2 Advance/Decline ratio at 0.22, majority of layer tokens bleeding sideways. Only 6 projects display sustained user growth and on-chain accumulation divergence. The rest lack fundamental and technical support. The 6 high-grade L2 plays: $ARB, $OP, $BASE, $LINEA, $SCROLL, $ZKsync The 94 low-quality L2 laggards: $METIS, $BOBA, $IMX, $RONIN, $SKALE, $CELO, $MOONBEAM, $ASTAR, $Changxin Technology's first day trading volume reached ¥141.187 billion, Hyperliquid "predicted" it half a month ago
Today (7/27), Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, opening at ¥49.5 per share, up 471.59%; the intraday high reached ¥55.03, the low fell back to ¥38.11, with a daily amplitude of 195.38%. After intense fluctuations, it closed at ¥49, up 465.82%, with a total market capitalization of ¥3.3 trillion. The total turnover for the day was ¥141.187 billion, with a turnover rate of 66.40%—the freely tradable shares on the first day accounted for only 6.73% of the total 66.88 billion shares outstanding. Achieving over ¥140 billion in turnover with such a small float indicates extremely active trading.
What’s even more interesting is that this result was "rehearsed" half a month ago.
On the eve of the subscription, Trade.xyz deployed a Pre-IPO perpetual contract for Changxin Technology (CXMT) through Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, with an initial reference price of $5, up to 5x leverage, settled in USDC. After launch, the price steadily rose from $6 to $7.2, peaking at $8.64, implying a market value of about ¥3.5 trillion RMB at one point—roughly the same scale as today’s A-share closing market cap of ¥3.3 trillion and the higher intraday range. Compared to the neutral expectations previously given by domestic institutions (240%-420% increase), the pricing of this on-chain contract was actually closer to today’s real outcome.
The logic behind this is the same as Polymarket: when traditional channels’ thresholds (such as the STAR Market’s ¥500,000 asset requirement and QFII quotas) block most participants, a freely tradable on-chain synthetic contract naturally evolves into a "real money voting" prediction market. In the future, when there is a scarce narrative and overseas capital is blocked by thresholds for large IPOs, checking whether Hyperliquid has pre-listed contracts is itself a free read on market sentiment.
What’s even more worth watching is what happens next: after this contract lists, it will switch to external oracle pricing referencing the A-share spot price. This means—during A-share trading hours, the contract price will closely follow the real stock price; but after A-share market closes, especially on weekends, the on-chain order book remains open 24/7. The price at that time reflects global capital’s immediate expectations for "how the A-share market will move on the next trading day." Essentially, this contract creates a 24-hour non-closing "overnight futures market" for Changxin Technology.
What do you think—after tonight’s A-share market close, will the CXMT contract on Hyperliquid significantly deviate from today’s ¥49 closing price, giving an early signal of tomorrow’s movement?
$CXMT $Changxin Technology BTC 与山寨之间的分化正在加速：SOL 系跑赢，AI/Meme 系持续跑输
原文给出了一个清晰的 Alt/BTC 交易对表现对比：SOL/BTC 过去一段时间上涨 8%，LAB/BTC 上涨 15%，BSB/BTC 上涨 12%；而 BEAT/BTC 下跌 20%，COAI/BTC 下跌 25%，SPACE/BTC 下跌 30%。这组数据直接指向一个结构性问题——资金并非在整体轮动，而是在有选择地集中。
- 原文确认的事实是：以 BTC 为计价基准，SOL 及其生态内项目（LAB、BSB）录得正相对收益，而 AI 概念币（COAI）、Meme 币（TRUMP、SPACE）以及部分虚拟资产类代币（VIRTUAL）录得显著负相对收益。
- 这里没有提供具体时间窗口，但数据形态表明这不是日内波动，而是持续一段时间的相对强弱积累。
从资金行为的角度看，这组数据揭示了三类资金的分化：
- 被动配置资金：仍在 BTC 内部，未明显外溢至山寨，因为大部分山寨/BTC 仍在下跌。
- 真实需求资金：集中在 SOL 链生态，表现为 SOL 本身及生态内基础设施/应用代币的主动买入。这可能对应 SOL 链上活跃度、DeFi 或 NFT 活动的真实增长，而非单纯投机。
- 短期投机资金：在 AI 和 Meme 赛道中快速撤离，表现为这些币种/BTC 的持续走弱。这暗示该赛道的叙事新鲜度下降，或前期获利盘正在退出。
市场结构上，BTC 目前扮演的是"资金锚"——所有山寨的相对强弱都需对比 BTC 来定义。SOL 系的走强意味着它正在挑战 ETH 之外的第二层资产地位，而 AI/Meme 的走弱则表明这些赛道的流动性溢价正在被压缩。
偏多路径：如果 SOL 系继续维持或扩大对 BTC 的相对收益，可能吸引更多真实需求资金从其他山寨回流至 SOL 生态，形成局部正反馈。条件是 SOL 链上基本面（如 TVL、交易量）同步改善，而非仅靠价格驱动。
偏空风险：如果 BTC 自身出现调整，山寨/BTC 的下跌可能加速，因为弱势山寨的杠杆和流动性更脆弱。AI 和 Meme 赛道的持续走弱可能引发连锁清算，进一步压制市场风险偏好。
结论：当前市场不是"山寨季"，而是"精选资产季"。SOL 系的表现可能反映真实需求，而 AI/Meme 的疲软表明投机资金正在撤离。交易者应区分被动持有与主动选择的资金流向，避免在弱势赛道中逆势持仓。
核心风险：SOL 系的相对强势可能已部分定价，若链上数据未能跟上价格，存在回调风险。关注 BTC 价格稳定性和 SOL 链基本面数据。
$BTC $SOL $AI $MEME$COMP is showing renewed bearish momentum after a $1.218K long liquidation at $17.30. EP: 17.15–17.35 | TP: 16.80 / 16.30 / 15.80 | SL: 17.75. The long liquidation indicates bulls are being forced out of their positions, giving sellers the upper hand. Unless price quickly reclaims the liquidation zone, the short-term structure favors further downside with increasing bearish momentum. 📉
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch 📊 $SUI Liquidation Overview
Liquidation Scale
· 1 hour: $409.82
· 4 hours: $200,200
· 12 hours: $290,200
· 24 hours: $337,000
Long and Short Distribution
Period Long Liquidations Short Liquidations Long Ratio
1h $105.95 $303.87 25.9%
4h $196,200 $3,977.45 98.0%
12h $235,000 $55,200 81.0%
24h $274,600 $62,400 81.5%
Long and Short Analysis
Long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short liquidations across all periods (24h long ratio at 81.5%), indicating a sustained one-sided downtrend. The 4-hour window is the harshest for longs, with a long ratio as high as 98.0%; the 12-hour and 24-hour long ratios remain stable around 81%~81.5%, with almost no resistance from shorts. The ultimate winner: shorts — prices show a violent one-way drop, with longs continuously stop-lossed out.
Time Distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.12% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 59.4% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 86.1% of 24 hours
Liquidations are extremely concentrated in the 12-hour period (over 86%), indicating the main down wave concentrated and basically completed within 12 hours; the increase from 12 to 24 hours is very limited, signaling the late stage of the short squeeze in the last 12 hours. Currently, the market is in the tail end of a short-dominated sustained decline, with long positions mostly cleared out. Short-term, a signal of volume contraction is needed.
One-sentence Summary
$SUI 24-hour long liquidations total $274,600, accounting for 81.5% of total volume, with the main down wave concentrated in 12 hours; shorts decisively win.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season" — from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Fed's interest rate decision, to the tech giants' earnings tests, the market is re-examining whether the high investment model in AI can deliver high returns.
📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The 3.66 trillion yuan "Domestic Substitution" Frenzy
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan/share, opening with a surge of 471.59%, and a market cap briefly surpassing 3.66 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share market cap. The IPO raised 66.6 billion yuan, the largest since the STAR Market's inception.
ChangXin Technology is the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, expected to net over 50 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. Nomura Securities set a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of about 7.76 trillion yuan, roughly 30% higher than current SK Hynix.
However, controversy is significant: SK Hynix's quarterly revenue is already more than three times ChangXin's half-year revenue; ChangXin still lags behind US and Korean giants by about two generations and three years technologically. Whether the 3.66 trillion yuan market cap marks the start of a super cycle or a peak moment is sharply debated.
🏛️ Fed Interest Rate Decision Early Thursday: Rate Hike Expectations Stirring
The biggest macro variable this week — the Fed will hold its meeting from July 28 to 29. Economists almost unanimously expect no change (all 104 surveyed economists predict rates will remain unchanged), but interest rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a hike.
The divergence stems from oil prices — Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, and ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to push up geopolitical risk premiums; combined with tariffs and massive AI spending, inflation pressures are rising again. This is Fed Chair Powell's second meeting in office, and whether it will be the stage for a "surprise rate hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "Burning Money" Model Under Test
This week Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon release earnings, with market focus aligned: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
Microsoft expects revenue around $87.4 billion; whether Azure growth can maintain about 40% is key. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125-145 billion; Q2 earnings will test if AI investments erode ad profits. Amazon AWS growth is expected to exceed 30% for the first time since 2022, but the market worries about negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow — AI is burning faster than expected. These three earnings reports this week will decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core market contradictions today: ChangXin Technology's 3.66 trillion yuan market cap is an extreme valuation of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; the tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." When valuation frenzy, policy shifts, and earnings validation converge in the same week, the AI narrative is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ ETH's recent rally is sustainable, with 15-minute consecutive high-volume breakouts, reaching the 1982 level. It has now experienced a slight pullback, which is a normal correction after a rapid rally, and the bullish structure has not yet been disrupted.
From the market perspective, EMA7, EMA25, and EMA60 continue to maintain a standard bullish alignment, with prices still steadily running above the EMA25. The moving average system is diverging upward, and the overall market trend is still dominated by bulls. Although there was a short-term pullback at high levels, trading volume did not significantly increase selling pressure; funds were more likely to switch hands at high levels rather than exit in panic.
Currently, the focus is on the resistance at the previous high. If there is a subsequent breakout with increased volume, there will be a chance to further challenge the 2000 round number. If the break fails, look for support near 1950-1955. As long as it pulls back and does not break below the EMA25, the bullish rhythm is likely to continue.
Don't chase rallies at high levels; wait for pullbacks to buy on dips, and follow the main trend. This will make your profit-loss ratio more reasonable.
📈 Ambush targets: Too many
🚗 Ambush Base: 1945-1955
🙂 ↕️ Turning back home: 1920
🎯 Ambush targets: 1985-2000
👀 Breakout upside: 2015-2035
$ETH U.S. crypto regulation has officially entered its final countdown.
On July 22, 2026, Senate Republicans released a new draft of the CLARITY Act, integrating the versions from the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and, for the first time, adding crypto ethics provisions for senior government officials.
Key Timeline:
July 17, 2025
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act with 294 votes in favor and 134 against.
January 29, 2026
The Senate Agriculture Committee is advancing relevant versions of digital commodity regulation, focusing on expanding the CFTC's regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market.
May 14, 2026
The Senate Banking Committee passed its version of the Market Structure Act with 15 votes in favor and 9 against.
July 22, 2026
Senate Republicans released the new draft after the merger, with main contents including:
• Clarifying regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC
• Establishing a federal registration system for exchanges, brokers, and custodians
• Strengthen anti-money laundering, customer identification, and asset isolation requirements
• Clarify that tokenized securities are still subject to securities laws
• Provides protection for some non-managed developers
• Inclusion of senior officials' crypto ethics clauses for the first time
The morality clause proposes to restrict the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets for profit, with these restrictions expected to last until January 20, 2029.
However, officials can still hold and invest in crypto assets, and since enforcement is mainly handled by the Department of Justice, Democrats believe there are obvious loopholes in the provisions.
August 3 to August 7, 2026
This is currently the most critical potential voting window. The Senate may initiate a procedural vote this week, but the official date has not yet been set, and advancing the bill usually requires at least 60 votes in favor.
Current Status:
❌ It has not yet passed the full Senate bill
❌ It has not yet become U.S. law
❌ August 3 is not the confirmed voting day
If it ultimately passes, the biggest change in the U.S. crypto industry will not be an immediate rise in coin prices, but a formal shift from "regulation relies on enforcement" to "regulation with rules."
The real long-term beneficiaries may be compliant exchanges, custodians, RWAs, stablecoin payments, and crypto projects capable of accepting institutional funds. $BTC $ETH $SOL This Wednesday's major milestone: the market turning point has arrived
This week is the most intense trading window for macro information recently—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and initial jobless claims, all of which are concentrated within 30 hours. High density means high volatility, with both opportunities and risks.
Node 1: July 30, 02:00 Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The market generally expects rates to hold steady, but a 36.3% probability of a rate hike means the market remains wary of a sudden shift in Walsh. The key suspense is: GDP and PCE will be released less than 24 hours after the decision—is the Fed laying the groundwork for the data in advance, or is it waiting for the data to begin? This sets the tone for this week's direction.
Node 2: July 30, 20:30 Q2 GDP + June PCE + Initial Request
With three layers of data combined, oil prices have already surpassed $100. If GDP confirms economic resilience and PCE exceeds expectations again, it is only a matter of time before rate hikes shift from an "option" to an "action." The destructive power of this combination should not be underestimated.
Node 3: The probability of Clarity bill passing within the year plummets to 37%
The positive news had already been fully traded before, and after expectations were cleared, the impact of negative news could actually turn into the "last drop." The Bitcoin market is still tugging around 65,000, not because there is no bullish or bearish momentum, but because the chips are changing hands at an accelerated pace.
Sister Yue's judgment:
Among these three nodes, I believe the direct impact of the rate decision may be limited—the real direction is determined by the combined results of GDP and PCE. The Fed is very likely to maintain the status quo, but any change in wording in the statement will be magnified and interpreted. The data after 18 hours will be the key to victory: if the economy overheats + inflation persists, the market will shift directly from "waiting" to "countdown to rate hikes," and the pressure to adjust risk assets will be concentrated.
For operations, this window is not about betting on size, but about equal certainty. Before a decision, it's best not to heavily bet on one side; real opportunities come after the data is realized and emotions are fully expressed. The 65,000 direction side selection is about to be completed; patience is more important than courage. $ETH $BTC #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables I am Cige. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have their earnings reports clustered this week, with three big releases on Wednesday and Thursday. Google and Tesla already set the tone last week with after-hours crashes; Google's capital expenditure exceeded expectations and fell more than 4% after hours, while Tesla dropped nearly 20% in a single week. Now it's the turn of the three major cloud giants to report. Whether the AI narrative holds or completely collapses depends on this round.
Let's lay out the data first for you to see.
Microsoft disclosed after hours on Wednesday, with market expectations of $87.4 billion in revenue, a 14.3% year-over-year increase. The full-year capital expenditure plan is $190 billion; last quarter, they already spent $31.9 billion. Free cash flow plunged sharply from $25.7 billion to $15.8 billion. Whether Azure's growth can hold at 40% is the core indicator to judge if AI investments are paying off.
Meta appeared simultaneously, raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a record $145 billion. The market expects advertising revenue to grow over 25% annually, but the key issue is whether AI computing power investment can translate into advertising revenue growth without eroding profit margins.
Amazon closes on Thursday, with market expectations of $196.2 billion in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase. AWS growth and the $200 billion full-year capital expenditure target are the biggest highlights. KeyBanc analysts expect capital expenditures to reach $331 billion and $356 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
The common problem for all three is the same: money is burning, but where is the return?
Google has already answered with negative free cash flow. JPMorgan estimates AI-related capital expenditures will approach $870 billion in 2026, with hyperscale cloud providers accounting for about $750 billion. The three major cloud providers have a large backlog of orders, cloud business revenue continues to accelerate, and computing power demand has fundamental support. But the market's current expectation threshold keeps rising, and investors' tolerance for earnings below expectations has significantly decreased.
Microsoft has already dropped 5.3% after hours, indicating the market was pricing in a "decent revenue but heavier cash burn" scenario before the earnings release. If Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver the same script, a second wave of pressure on tech stocks is highly likely.
Transmission chain to BTC
In the short term, if the three companies beat expectations, the AI hardware chain will be repriced, sentiment in storage and semiconductor sectors will recover, and BTC is expected to test the short squeeze zone between 65,700 and 66,000. If they miss expectations, tech stocks will continue to be pressured, dragging BTC down to retest 64,000 to 64,500.
In the medium term, AI capital expenditures are still accelerating, with the four giants' combined capital expenditure expected to exceed $650 billion. The burning is of fiat credit, reinforcing BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset. Every earnings season's "decent revenue but heavier cash burn" adds bricks to BTC's long-term logic.
Operationally
The short position logic at 65,922 still holds. Avoid heavy directional bets before earnings. If earnings beat expectations, stop loss on shorts promptly and reverse; if they miss, hold and add positions below 64,000. The direction hasn't changed, but volatility will increase.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ $BTC $ETH $SHIB This week, the most important event in the market is about to arrive—the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
I believe the biggest focus of this meeting is not whether there will be a rate cut, but what kind of signals the Federal Reserve will release.
From the current market expectations, the Fed is very likely to keep rates unchanged, which has basically been priced in by the market.
What will truly determine the short-term trends of Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and gold is likely the post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference.
Why is this meeting so important?
In the past week, the U.S. released CPI and PPI data that were both lower than market expectations, and the market has resumed trading on rate cut expectations.
At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, and institutional allocation enthusiasm remains high.
Therefore, the market's main concern now is no longer "whether there will be a rate cut this time."
Instead, it is:
• Will the Federal Reserve acknowledge that inflation is improving?
• Will it signal a possible policy shift in the coming months?
• What is the latest assessment of economic growth and the labor market?
These factors could directly affect market expectations for future liquidity.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
If the Fed's overall tone is dovish, acknowledging continued cooling of inflation and hinting at a gradual easing of policy in the future, risk asset sentiment is likely to improve further, and Bitcoin may continue to attract capital.
If the tone remains hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks still exist or implying that high rates will be maintained longer, the market may experience short-term volatility, and Bitcoin could face some downward pressure.
My advice:
Don't rush to heavily bet on a direction before the rate decision is announced.
Historical experience shows that around major macro events, market volatility usually amplifies significantly, with prices possibly surging or dropping quickly first, then choosing direction again based on the press conference content.
For traders, rather than guessing the outcome, it's better to wait for the market to confirm the direction and then follow the trend.
This Federal Reserve meeting may have no suspense regarding the rate itself, but the signals Powell releases will likely determine the trend of global risk assets in the coming weeks. What truly affects Bitcoin is not whether the rate remains unchanged, but whether market expectations for future liquidity change. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $BTC #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Market expectations have undergone a significant shift! Previously, widespread rumors spread that the U.S. would impose a blanket restriction on open-source AI solutions, causing the probability to decline rapidly. Nvidia led several tech companies in issuing a joint open letter strongly opposing it, while Silicon Valley startups collectively voiced pressure on regulators, significantly cooling panic over tightening policies. Let's talk about the underlying logic and market impact.
Previously, closed-source AI companies continued lobbying regulators, calling for restrictions on open weighted models, and the market once worried about the introduction of strict bans. However, the recent situation has reversed, with giants like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft jointly signing an open letter warning that premature restrictions on open-source AI will weaken the overall innovation competitiveness of the United States; A large number of small and medium-sized AI companies have followed suit, making resistance to one-size-fits-all control measures sharply increased.
Key reminder: The expected decline ≠ complete abandonment of regulation only greatly reduces the likelihood of strict bans, and the moderate regulatory framework is still being advanced.
1. Risk premiums in the technology sector are declining
Ban fears have subsided, easing market concerns about tightening AI industry policies. The stable development of the open-source ecosystem means that AI adoption is expected to accelerate, the long-term demand logic for computing power is consolidated, and this will benefit risk appetite in the US semiconductor and AI hardware sectors. The warming of tech sentiment has indirectly provided emotional support for highly volatile risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
2. The long-term contest between the two major camps in Silicon Valley has continued
The market must recognize the root causes of disagreement:
Open source camp: Open source models expand AI application scenarios. No matter what model runs, GPU computing power is needed, leading to long-term hardware demand;
Closed-source camp: Concerned that low-cost open-source models will impact their commercialization returns, they continue to push for control.
The rivalry between the two major factions will not end, and regulatory news will continue to surface, which could easily trigger short-term market volatility.
3. Distinguish between short-term emotional catalysts and long-term main themes
This news is a secondary positive trend at the industry level and is unlikely to drive mainstream coins to a major trend rally on their own. The medium- to long-term trends of BTC and ETH remain dominated by expectations of Fed rate cuts and the CLARITY crypto bill.
Sector differentiation remains unchanged: computing power infrastructure targets continue to benefit; Themes driven solely by concept speculation without real-world scenarios remain under valuation pressure.
Personal Market Analysis:
In the short term, don't rely solely on this news to chase the rally; be wary of sentiment realizing after positive news materializes.
Continue to track two key signals:
(1) Official U.S. Subsequent Draft Regulation Text;
(2) Can the US US computing power sector maintain its upward trend?
From a medium- to long-term perspective, continuous expansion of the open-source AI ecosystem is the main direction, and the computing power industry chain repeatedly presents strategic opportunities. 周四凌晨美联储 FOMC 议息会议将会揭开帷幕，政策声明里一字一句的措辞调整，都会给加密市场带来巨大冲击。偏向宽松的表述能够带动行情冲高，倘若基调偏鹰，大饼有机会快速回落测试 62000。 现阶段各类经济数据互相拉扯。地缘缓和预期推动油价下行，市场担忧通胀持续走高的情绪有所降温。不过初请失业金数据表现好于预期，劳动力市场依旧保持强劲。摆在美联储面前的难题十分突出，降息容易诱发通胀再度抬头，维持高利率又要承担经济下行的潜在风险。 微软、Meta、亚马逊将在周三、周四陆续披露财报。当下资金不再满足空洞的 AI 发展故事，重点关注企业资本开支规划，以及相关投入何时转化为实际利润。一旦财报指引低于市场预期，纳指率先承压，比特币很难走出独立行情。 紧随议息会议之后，7 月 31 日 FTX 将开启 9 亿美元规模的赔付。这笔资金最终流向充满不确定性，一部分受害者拿到资金后永久离场，也有一部分资金重新回流市场，两者的占比，将会影响后续市场流动性。 当前 BTC 站稳 65000 一线，恐慌贪婪指数来到 30。相比前期数值，市场恐慌情绪得到一定修复，但投资者依旧心存顾虑。可以理解为短期极端下跌风险暂$BTC Going up under passive buying. Spot CVD is trending down, BUT price is up. Most likely someone big is TWAP selling into chasing bids.
Also, shorts closing helped to push the price. Look how OI from Friday that came at the lows has been wiped out.ETH DIDN'T DIE. WE DID.
We never got a real bull market.
We got Saylor buying $1.28B of BTC and CT rotating into SOL memecoin trenches.
Retail rugged itself.
Now look at the flows:
July 2026:
$ETH ETFs: $5.41B in inflows. Best month ever
$BTC ETFs: $175M in outflows
Last week:
BlackRock ETHA: +$254M in 1 day
ETH futures OI: $10B+ first time ever
Corporate treasuries: 17 firms now hold 1.75M ETH = $7.53B
33% of all ETH is now staked.
ETH TVL: $41B. But 24h NFT volume: $648K
The "world computer" became the "institutional settlement layer".
Stablecoins. RWAs. Payments. All building on ETH.
The institutions love ETH.
The people left.
Ironic and sad.
NFA.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch #波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.42, with a historical average of 1.7—a difference of more than four times. The market is indeed in an undervalued range, but analysts have not called for "bottom-fishing"; instead, they added: there have been no signals of surrender yet.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
Simply put, it measures the degree of deviation from Bitcoin's current price relative to the average cost of all holders. Higher values mean more expensive; lower values mean cheaper. 0.42 means Bitcoin is indeed not expensive, but historically, it is the true cycle bottom, and this indicator usually only counts when it drops to negative territory. The fact that it's still above zero means it's not yet in the extreme panic state where "everyone is cutting their losses."
Another signal is also confirming this judgment.
$BTC 7, the realized profit and loss have turned positive, currently about $239 million. This means that those who sold in the past seven days have generally made money, and on-chain selling pressure is easing. But relief does not mean a reversal; it only indicates that the most feared wave of selling may have already passed and buying has not truly returned.
The market is now stuck in an awkward position.
Cheap is really cheap, but lacks a reason to make everyone rush in. Oil prices remain high, the FOMC has yet to be finalized, and the CLARITY Act hangs in the air. A Fed that doesn't provide signposts, plus a pile of unresolved macro variables and no clear catalyst, underestimation can last a long time.
My view:
The indicator says "it's worth watching," but it's not yet "time to rush." The overestimated range ≠ immediately rebounded. Wait for the FOMC to take place, for oil prices to stabilize, and for a real catalyst to emerge. Before the direction is clear, not increasing positions is the bottom line. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I think the Federal Reserve will most likely hold steady in July, but the post-meeting statement will be more hawkish than everyone expects.
The real rate hike window is in September; this meeting is just a warning shot. Previously, the market was still fantasizing about rate cuts within the year, but now with oil prices and employment both exceeding expectations, the easing expectations have been completely wiped out. So don’t trade based on old assumptions; the high interest rate environment will last longer than anyone thinks, and growth assets will remain under pressure in the short term.
According to data: CME’s latest pricing shows a 63.7% probability of holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July, and a 36.3% probability of a 25bp hike — this hike probability was only 13% a week ago, nearly tripling in just a few days. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 55%, with the market basically assuming action at the next meeting.
Brent crude has surged past $100, pushing inflation rebound risks to the max; initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, hitting a new low since April, showing the labor market is tighter than expected. Both of these key Fed indicators are strengthening simultaneously, so there is absolutely no reason for rate cuts, but rather ample confidence for rate hikes.
Therefore, I believe holding steady in July is highly likely, but hawkish remarks are unavoidable, and the September rate hike window officially opens. It’s safest to control your position size and keep enough cash on hand to handle volatility. ETH质押数据释放积极信号，以太坊正在迎来新一轮价值重估？
最近关注到一个比较有意思的现象：以太坊验证者退出队列已经降至0，解除质押无需等待；与此同时，约248万枚ETH正在排队进入质押。
很多人看到“退出队列清零”可能会担心是不是资金正在离场，但我认为更应该关注资金流向的组合变化。退出通道恢复正常，说明网络流动性更加健康，而大量ETH主动进入质押，则反映出持币者对于以太坊长期价值仍保持信心。
另外，从DefiLlama数据来看，近期多个以太坊生态协议资金呈现净流入趋势，DeFi活跃度正在回升。无论是质押需求，还是生态资金沉淀，都说明ETH依然是加密市场中最核心的基础资产之一。
我认为，市场短期可能仍会受到情绪影响，但真正决定ETH长期价值的，是网络使用量、生态增长以及机构资金认可度。
当越来越多ETH被锁定在质押和生态应用中，市场流通供应减少，长期来看可能形成更强的价值支撑。
以太坊的故事从来不只是价格，而是整个链上经济体系的持续扩张。📉 FIFA chose $AVAX to deploy blockchain infrastructure, but why is AVAX still down more than 70% from the top?
Many people think that FIFA's cooperation with Avalanche will help $AVAX increase sharply. But in fact, the price did not react as expected.
😱Notable points:
📌 Good news doesn't mean price increases.
The market usually reflects expectations before the official news is announced.
📌 The supply continues to be unlocked.
Increased supply pressure makes it difficult for prices to break through if the buying force is not strong enough.
📌 Short-term cash flow has not returned.
The data shows that large cash flows have not yet shown clear signs of accumulation, while selling pressure is still present.
📌 Long is dominating.
When too many investors are on the same side, the market is always at risk of a liquidity sweep if the price falls.
FIFA is a great partner and a positive signal for the Avalanche ecosystem. However, the price of AVAX still depends on cash flow, supply and demand, and market sentiment, not just on a news partnership.
Good technology is not necessarily profitable. In crypto, it is the flow of money that determines the price.
The article represents a personal analytical perspective, not investment advice. #QuantumDeadline2031BTC Changxin is listed, it feels a bit like SPCX, sucking blood from the entire big A market. I didn't dare to participate, the biggest reason being that the big A market is damn T+1.
Guess what happens next?
Because of low circulation, it's very likely that the market cap will fomo rise to over 4 trillion in the first two days of opening, but going higher than that would be too much fomo. Hynix still has a better cost-performance ratio.
This kind of hot opening is played by few; I only participated in Xizhi Technology and SPCX openings, and managed to sneak a little profit because of T+0 trading, allowing me to take a little and leave.
Later, wait for Changxin to suck blood from the entire big A market, then gradually bottom-fish the STAR 50, hold STAR 50 for the long term, choosing to believe in China's technology.
To be honest, the government is the most powerful. The Hefei government holds more than 30% of Changxin shares. Just one Changxin equals more than ten years of Hefei's fiscal revenue. This kind of situation may become more common in the future. Previously, the government relied on land sales for fiscal revenue, but there may be a shift in thinking going forward.
Believe in the nation's fortune, believe in technology. Of course, I also bought a lot of old Deng stocks to hedge.... In fact, the nature of @BitMEX and @BitMartExchange closures is different and should not be confused.
BitMEX is more like orderly cleaning up its business—closing positions where needed, withdrawing what needs to be withdrawn, and finally completing the final stage with dignity. This is called bankruptcy. If they didn't do anything wrong, at least everyone could part ways on good terms.
However, BitMart is very likely unable to properly repay user assets, with large withdrawals delaying arrival.
If it is ultimately confirmed that the funds are insufficient and the user's withdrawal cannot be repaid and many users lose money, that is called running away and ending on bad terms.#The expectation of the US banning open-source AI has sharply declined
The expectation of banning open-source AI has sharply declined: it's not that there is no regulation, but that a ban is no longer feasible. Around July 20, the White House was still reassessing the ban on Chinese open-source models, but within less than a week, the tone suddenly changed:
On July 24, 25 US giants including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, IBM, and Hugging Face jointly issued an open letter, bluntly stating: Don't ban open-weight models; banning them is equivalent to handing the ecosystem back to a few closed-source giants.
Nearly 200 Silicon Valley startups earlier co-signed a letter: cutting off Chinese open-source = exploding costs for startups = indirectly benefiting OpenAI/Anthropic.
The AI executive order signed by the White House in June centers on a 30-day safety evaluation window plus voluntary government-industry collaboration, not banning releases, let alone banning downloads. The new framework leaked in mid-July is more practical: using Chinese open-source models as a capability benchmark, quickly approving those within the line, strictly reviewing those beyond it. Essentially, it replaces bans with tiered regulation.
Therefore, the narrative of a comprehensive US ban on open-source AI has been crushed by three forces over the past two weeks:
1. The industry voting with their feet (Chinese models account for nearly 60% of US enterprise token usage on OpenRouter; banning them would first halt Silicon Valley).
2. There are already factions within the government supporting US open weights; Sacks/Kratsios' stance is that the US must win in open source, not strangle it.
3. Limited administrative resources prioritize compute export controls and cutting-edge model safety reviews; globally downloadable open weights cannot realistically be banned.
What this means for the crypto space: before, AI x Crypto valuations were suppressed by black swan ban risks; now that discount is being lifted:
FET, PHA, TAO, RNDR, GRASS — DeAI/privacy computing/decentralized compute projects — the logic shifts from regulatory extinction risk back to practical competition.
But don't get carried away: expectation decline ≠ all good news fully priced in. The future will see tiered regulation plus a structural market boosted by US open weights; low-quality AI tokens will still be weeded out.
In a low-volume market, the AI sector is a sentiment rebound, not a trend reversal; waiting for a pullback confirmation is more comfortable than chasing green candles.
My judgment: the probability of banning open source has dropped from 40% to below 10%, but controlling cutting-edge closed-source and restricting compute exports remain long-term themes. The market is front-running the retreat of policy extremism, not the disappearance of AI regulation.$ETH is quite firm when it's tough, and soft when it's soft. Take today, for example: it pushed north to 2000, but the hard ones weren't good, and the pullback was only a slight pullback. Everyone has been hoping to break through 2000 these days, but the resistance is still quite strong—unless it can hold above 1980. Moreover, news has been flying everywhere lately, with the 7.30 FOMC meeting being especially crucial. Trump has paused military strikes against Iran, and the US and Iran have begun negotiations through Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, making progress. International oil prices have plunged more than 5%. The logic of "Middle East conflict + oil prices breaking 100 + rate hike expectations" that previously suppressed risk assets was weakened, capital flowed back into crypto, and BTC/ETH rebounded simultaneously. • ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $103.9 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of positive inflows, and the largest of the four ETFs (BTC only $33.79 million) • On July 27, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of tens of millions of dollars for several consecutive days, while BTC ETFs saw net outflows during the same period—institutions rotated internally, tilting their holdings toward increasing ETH holdings • With staking exit queues zeroed, over 2.5 million ETH queued to enter, and a staking rate of 33.6% hit a record high, Supply is structurally compressed. ETH surged strongly northward today, hitting 1982.29, directly wiping out the upper short stop loss and facing huge selling pressure. For the remaining 2.5 days, it will keep oscillating within this range. The earliest it could exceed 2000 by the 29th, but it will soon be pushed back down. If it can't break through, it will have to return to 1850Long-term small gains with occasional big losses versus long-term small losses with occasional big profits: which strategy should you choose?One of the biggest problems with traditional international forex trading is that funds are not settled immediately after the transaction is completed.
Chainlink collaborated with several multinational banks to promote Project Pangea,
Research is underway to shorten the settlement time in the international foreign exchange market to T+0.
That is, transactions and settlements are usually completed on the same day whenever possible.
If this model is truly implemented, it will reduce more than just waiting time,
It also includes counterparty risk, capital occupation, and complex backend reconciliation costs.
LINK's next battle is not just about the crypto oracle market,
Instead, it is the location of data and settlement infrastructure after traditional financial assets enter the chain.
$LINK$OKB, its performance was relatively flat amid broad market gains. As the platform token of OKX Exchange, OKB's value mainly depends on usage within the OKX ecosystem and market demand. Recently, OKB's performance has been driven more by overall market sentiment—when the market weakens, funds flee from the exchange sector, putting pressure on it, while when the market recovers, funds cluster together to buy platform tokens for safe havens. OKX previously conducted large-scale token burns, significantly reducing the supply of OKB and providing long-term price support from the supply side. In addition, OKX's ongoing expansion and institutional collaborations have also brought positive sentiment to OKB. Against the backdrop of current geopolitical easing, if market risk appetite continues to rise, OKB, as the platform token of a leading exchange, is expected to benefit from increased overall trading activity. In the short term, attention should be paid to a breakout near $85. If the market continues to strengthen, OKB is likely to follow the rebound.: Today's SNDK rally is largely a correction of last Friday's sharp drop in the US stock market SanDisk/Hynix.
Tonight, the US stock market opens (21:30 Beijing time). If tech stocks cannot maintain their strength, SNDK futures are very likely to weaken early on $SNDK #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I am Cige. This week the financial market is entering a truly super week. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings reports, and the fifth round of FTX compensation—all three events are packed into the same week. Each alone can ignite the market, and now combined, the direction will be released concentratedly early Thursday morning.
Fed decision: rate hike probability jumps from 13% to 38%
A week ago, the market was still calm with only a 13% chance of a rate hike. Now CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has surged to 38%, and interest rate swap market data is similar, with about a 30% chance of a hike and about 70% chance of no change. Economists, however, all expect no change. With such a big divergence between officials and the market, one side will eventually be proven wrong.
Oil price decline is the biggest variable. Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire pushed WTI down to $85, quickly reducing geopolitical risk premiums and easing inflation concerns. But Goldman Sachs analysts clearly point out that the impact of this decision largely depends on how Fed Chair Powell explains the decision and the future policy path.
Tech giants earnings: AI cash-burning battle faces a big test
Microsoft disclosed earnings Wednesday, with market expectations of $87.4 billion revenue, up 14.3% year-over-year. Full-year capital expenditure plan reaches $190 billion, last quarter capex was $31.9 billion, and free cash flow has sharply dropped from $25.7 billion to $15.8 billion. Whether Azure can maintain about 40% growth is key to proving the rationality of AI investment.
Meta also reported Wednesday, raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a maximum of $145 billion. Bank of America expects Q2 revenue of $60.6 billion and EPS of $7.50, both exceeding market expectations. Core advertising business is strong, but the ROI on AI spending is the biggest question mark for the market.
Amazon closes the week Thursday, with market expectations of $196.2 billion revenue, up 17% year-over-year. 2026 capital expenditure is targeted around $200 billion, and free cash flow may even turn negative. AWS growth and AI investment ROI are core variables influencing market sentiment.
Google and Tesla already set the tone last week with post-market plunges. Google’s capital expenditure exceeded expectations, falling over 4% after hours; Tesla’s profits disappointed, dropping nearly 20% in a week. If Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon also deliver a "good revenue but heavier cash burn" combination, tech stocks may face secondary pressure. If cloud business growth exceeds expectations and capex guidance is moderate, the entire AI hardware chain will be repriced.
FTX fifth round compensation, $900 million starts July 31
FTX will start the fifth round of creditor distributions on July 31, totaling about $900 million. Some creditors can recover 103% to 120% of their claims. Nearly $10 billion has been repaid since bankruptcy. A significant portion of the $900 million will flow back into the crypto market, forming buying support.
BTC outlook
The short position logic at 65922 still holds. The Fed rate hike probability jumped from 13% to 38%, and tech giants’ earnings risk missing expectations—these are short-term suppressive factors. But if the Fed holds steady and signals dovishness, combined with earnings beating expectations and FTX compensation funds flowing back, BTC may quickly test the short liquidation zone between 65700 and 66000.
The long-short showdown will be decided this week. Hold your positions and avoid heavy bets on direction before the data is released. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $DOGE If you spend enough time at an archaeological excavation site, you’ll understand that any dynasty that undertakes massive construction projects and forcibly requisitions all the gold in the land to build temples usually leaves behind only two things for future generations: either an immortal wonder or a heavy, high-leverage tombstone.
Today’s new stories become tomorrow’s unearthed artifacts. Every wave of frenzy claims to be unprecedented, but when you open the stratigraphic records, they’re all just copies.
Look at the recently unearthed "stratigraphic fragments": Google suffered a brutal sell-off due to its frenzied capital expenditure increases, and Tesla plunged into its deepest cliff since 2022. Now, it’s Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—these three massive computing empires—that stand before history’s test. Adventurers and prospectors across the market are all watching the capital expenditure guidance from these three giants this week—everyone anxiously awaiting judgment on whether the real gold swallowed up is forging a tower to the next era or hollowing out the empire’s granary.
In archaeology, we never trust the priests’ prophecies; we only recognize carbon-14 dating and stratigraphic artifacts. The true growth of cloud services and the monetization efficiency of computing power are the only unearthed evidence to verify whether this multi-billion-dollar arms race is "real gold in the pocket" or a "mirage." Without sufficient output proof, those towering giant data centers are nothing but ruins of overheated capacitors that archaeologists will dig out from the dust decades later.
What’s even more intriguing is that this battle over the empire’s fate has long broken the traditional laws of day and night. In the never-ending digital night market, tokenized U.S. stock assets represented by $XAMZN achieve seamless 24/7 circulation. Even during the deep night when traditional markets are closed, people still use stablecoins to engage in real-time battles and pricing of these commercial giants’ destinies. The volatility of $XAMZN resembles early warning relics unearthed underground, transmitting the anxiety and turmoil of the main board market to every nerve ending of on-chain assets without delay.
All the historical frenzies and collapses ultimately cannot escape the first law of stratigraphy: strata do not lie, and time settles everything. When storms sweep over ancient dunes, those digital tokens traded at high frequency in the dead of night and the vast computing power bills have long etched dense marks of greed and fear into the layers of history. #AIEarningsWatch ETH climbed from $1846 all the way to $1982, surging nearly $140 over the weekend. Some longs have made some losses, but those who cut losses at 1850 probably regret it deeply. The direct trigger for the rebound is clear—a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. After 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iran, the U.S. military suspended its strikes on the evening of July 24, and Iran's previous nightly retaliations ceased. A senior Iranian official made it clear: as long as the U.S. stops, Iran will stop too. The temporary cooling of geopolitical risks has had immediate effects. Oil prices plummeted more than 5% to around $96.7, with safe-haven funds flowing back from the dollar into risk assets, making ETH one of the biggest beneficiaries. Market concerns about worsening inflation have temporarily eased, which in turn dampened expectations for aggressive rate hikes, giving crypto assets some breathing room in the short term. But don't celebrate too soon—how long you can breathe depends entirely on the Fed's early Wednesday morning meeting. Currently, the market pricing in this rate decision has become extremely divided. According to CME federal funds futures data, the market is betting on a 25 basis point rate hike in July with a probability of about 36%-38%, compared to 13% a week ago. On the other hand, a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists shows that all expect rates to remain unchanged. Why are there such big divisions? Fed Chair Wash has completely abandoned "forward-looking guidance," making it clear that he will no longer communicate policy direction with the market in advance, and that every meeting is a "real-time" decision. PGIM's chief U.S. economist bluntly stated that the meeting was "almost fifty-fifty." Even more life-threateningChina's breakthrough in artificial intelligence is stimulating the US-led high-tech blockade and the "island economy" model, breaking the dollar siphon — this is also the issue the US government worries most! Previously, on July 19, I wrote that China's continuous breakthroughs in artificial intelligence are challenging the U.S. blockade on cutting-edge AI technology, putting greater pressure on US Q2 earnings reports! The core of my view is not that China's AI has completely caught up with the US, but rather that the powerful production capacity and high efficiency expectations brought by China's breakthroughs are breaking the US tech blockade. Especially in the global mass AI market, which is cost-sensitive, allows for local deployment, pursues sufficient use rather than absolute strength, and has low regulatory barriers, this will accelerate market transformation and bring more challenges to US tech companies! 1. Changxin Technology's boss: The rise in market value essentially represents a breakthrough in China's AI supply. 1. In the AI era, computing power competition has shifted from the GPU frontline to the storage field. 2. What did the market focus on in the past? It's NVIDIA's GPUs, TSMC's advanced packaging, Broadcom's switching chips are optical modules, and now another has been added—DRAM/HBM and other storage components. 3. GPU computing power + memory capacity + bandwidth are the three essential elements for AI training. China has previously tried various ways to break technological blockades through amplification, while Changxin Technology represents a breakthrough on the storage side. 4. Changxin's listing means the capital market is beginning to reprice the domestic AI hardware chain, accelerating breakthroughs and financing capabilities in the industry chain. This means the AI supply chain is no longer possible如果你对Solana的印象还停留在“每天冒出一万个土狗币、动物园里有的动物它全发了一遍”，那你可能得更新一下版本了。 Solana二季度这份报告，看得我有点恍惚——链上代币化股权的交易量，环比直接暴涨了114%，规模干到了48亿美元。注意，不是全年，是一个季度，而且是实打实的股权类资产，不是什么柴犬币、蛤蟆币。相比一季度，这个数字整整翻了四倍。 这就好比你家楼下那个天天卖烤串的小摊，突然挂出来一块米其林招牌，还开始接私人晚宴了——画风变得有点快。 从动物园到华尔街的转身 过去市场对SOL生态的刻板印象极其稳固：Meme驱动、土狗乐园、一天换一波叙事。确实，前两年Solana靠着极低的Gas费和飞快速度，成了草根项目的温床，各种土狗币在上面玩得飞起，也吸引了大批投机资金。但老实讲，这种生态有一个致命伤——热闹是热闹，来得快去得也快，资金像潮水，说退就退。 而现在的48亿美元代币化股权交易量告诉我们，另一批完全不同的玩家正在入场。这批人关心的不是哪个币的狗头更可爱，而是如何在链上便捷地配置私募股权、初创公司份额这类传统世界里门槛极高的资产。代币化之后，原本锁死在Excel表格里的股权，变成At the close of US stocks on Monday, the $BTC 63,300 level had been sideways all day. ETF data is out—net outflow of 43 million, but strangely, the price hasn't dropped much. To me, this deviation is a signal.
After six years of navigating this market, my deepest takeaway is: news is fragile against the market. Last year, news of ETF outflows would have been a $BTC drop long ago, but this week it clearly hasn't fallen.
On-chain data is even more interesting: BTC balances on exchanges have declined for the fourth consecutive day, while stablecoins continue to flow in. This shows that some people are accumulating shares at low prices, rather than fleeing in panic. $ETH is also starting to gain volume. If this breakthrough breaks previous highs, it could be the horn for the knockoff season.
Only those who can hold hold deserve to eat the meat. $BTC $ETH $SOL