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大家有没有察觉到，特朗普的言论对加密市场的边际影响越来越弱了。一方面他反复释放相关表态，市场早已产生免疫，听多了大家都会保持审慎，利好效应不断衰减。但更关键的一点在于，牛市尤其是主升浪的暴力拉升阶段，市场需要一个情绪标杆，放眼全球，特朗普几乎是最合适的人选。上一轮周期里，PlanB就是币圈公认的行情神话，主力需要造势时他被捧上神坛，行情走完后就被边缘化。看透本质就会发现，很多行情推手、舆论神话，本质上都是资金周期下的产物而已。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 At 22:00 Beijing time on July 27, Ondo officially launched the Ondo Network. Let me put my conclusion first: this is not another positive repetition of "another L1" advantage, but a very substantial shift in technical route; For ONDO, product progress is real, but token value capture has yet to be compensated by this announcement. Understanding these two layers is more important than focusing solely on the "new network launch." Ondo Chain, announced in 2025, was originally envisioned as a PoS L1 for the institutional-level RWA market, with its own state, validators, and on-chain logic. Now, the official statement is very straightforward: after implementing Ondo Perps, it was found that what truly stuck the trading experience was not settlement, but execution; Therefore, there is no need to build chains using traditional methods. The new solution places high-frequency logic such as matching, margin, and clearing into a single high-performance TEE secure zone, executing secretly at speeds close to centralized exchanges; Multi-party provers first verify the runtime code, then store the key key using a threshold method; Asset transfers are settled on the public chain. In other words, it separates execution, validation, and settlement. The official statement even clearly states that Ondo Network "is currently not a blockchain," but is merely a continuation and more accurate expression of Ondo Chain's goals. I acknowledge this pragmatism, but I would not equate "verifiability" directly with "complete distrust." Currently, code is still running in a single TEE, and the system relies on hardware remote proofs, approval code governance processes, and the honesty and availability of multi-party provers. The announcement did not disclose the certifier 又是被市场教育的一天教育内容很简单标题很吵大饼很稳费率很冷山寨很分裂收工价记一下 BTC 65132，一天大约加0.9% ETH 1962附近，接近四个点 SOL 76.6，也有两个点出头然后你猜怎么着我把手机扣过去的时候最大的冲动不是加仓是想关通知所以我的判断是今天只留一句话不追不砍，降杠杆，关应用睡觉说回大盘之外的热点，今天这几个事儿有点意思： #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零退出队列归零缓和了质押端抛压想象，叠今天ETH明显强于大盘，短线弹性还在。我可以继续把ETH当核心卫星仓，但不会因为一条数据就改成高倍合约。 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过监管日程再拖一拖，主题投机少了时间表刺激，反而逼着资金回到流动性更好的资产上。日终视角里这是降噪，不是离场信号，核心仓位继续拿着就行。 #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量存储上市把AI硬件战争写进大众视野，长线叙事燃料还在，只是价格节奏和二级投机不是一回事。看完热搜记得回到自己的仓位表，别在日终最后五分钟冲动下单。 $BTC $ETH #日终 #盘面 Want to buy but don't dare, don't buy but fear missing out Typical symptoms on the eve of the weekend The U in the account is glowing Fingers keep clicking back and forth between the plus and minus signs The big issues left this week are very clear The Federal Reserve decision is right in front of us Geopolitics is still in the gray area of "ceasefire but not over" The CLARITY schedule continues to be delayed And then guess what BTC has already digested part of the panic into a sideways upper range in advance Closed red near 65100 But I don't dare interpret this as a green light to confidently increase leverage For the weekend outlook, I only give myself three rules First Cut the leverage limit again before the decision Volatility can come But no liquidations Second You can watch the movers list Position limits locked Stocks with 18% moves in a day can only be observation samples Third Safety checks are more important than predictions Mnemonic phrases, authorizations, unfamiliar apps Perfect time to clean up during weekend boredom So my judgment is The weekend is not for proving how brave you are It's for reducing irreversible mistakes You can keep the direction, but actions must slow down By the way, I noticed some recent developments in a few directions: #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 The decision is the biggest macro trigger this week; the dot plot and press conference speeches often hurt valuations more than the rate hike or cut itself. My plan is to keep only low-leverage core positions before and after the decision, saving the firing rights until volatility clearly contracts. #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 The ceasefire reduces the probability of the worst-case scenario, but the gray area may repeat at any time, and oil prices and risk assets will still pulse. During the weekend news blackout, be extra cautious of gap spikes; never treat the ceasefire headline as a one-way pass. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 The computing power guarantee can sustain AI's long-term heat but is easily exaggerated by the community over the weekend as a no-brainer reason to go long. A warm background is acceptable, but positions must still obey weekend risk control rules, not trending headlines. $BTC $ETH #WeekendOutlook #RiskControl $MOVE (1H) – Oversold Bounce Attempt Bias: LONG Entry Zone: 0.00890 – 0.00900 Stop Loss: 0.00875 TP1: 0.00911 TP2: 0.00925 TP3: 0.00945 Why this setup: Defended local support at 0.00882 after an aggressive sell-off. Consolidation above the low indicates seller exhaustion, setting up a potential mean-reversion move toward the 1H moving average resistances. NFA – Educational purposes only. #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #OilDropsOnCeasefire Community sentiment was especially noisy tonight. Half people were posting the gainers leaderboard, half were cursing the drawdown list. It felt like we were living in two parallel markets. I scrolled through the discussion board, and there were only three keywords: how to price interest rate decisions, whether storage listings count as positive spillovers, and some even used the ceasefire as the trigger for a new bull market. And guess what? The ones truly dominating prices aren't the loudest comments, but boring data like funding rates and ETFs. Rates are still cold, but Bitcoin is still red. The pitfall of community sentiment is, first, clickbait pushes complex structures into a single phrase: "It's about to crash" or something "It's about to explode." If you place orders following emotion, you're basically handing your position over to the loudest person. Second, if PUMP can jump 18 points and SHIB can pull back by 8 points on the same day, it shows the narrative is fragmented and the unified slogan is no longer effective. Third, my own response is pretty basic. Trending topics are treated as intelligence, and orders are based on your own list. Whoever criticizes or praises should first keep a small notebook. So my judgment is: the more divided the community, the more suitable it is to reduce trading frequency and shift energy from "taking sides" back to positions and risk. People who speak less in noisy markets usually lose less. Coincidentally, there are a few hot topics worth discussing today: #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? When earnings season arrives, communities love to label all coins with AI tags, making it very difficult to tell real from fake. I wait for the guiding text to materialize before deciding on a topic position, rather than being pushed into the most crowded trades by slogans in the warm-up post. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Storage launches have pushed hardware capacity wars into trending searches, making discussion forums easier Forget about bottom-fishing, it feels like the fundamentals have changed this time and there's no bottom anymore Previously, it was all hype about AI's huge growth and the perpetual shortage of storage But last weekend, Samsung and SK Hynix both announced expansion plans Changxin also went public; although it can't produce high-end HBM for now, it will eventually, and making DRAM now will squeeze Samsung and SK Hynix's mid-to-low-end market, freeing up capacity there In short, the previous expectation of storage shortage has suddenly turned into no shortage The market buys expectations and sells facts; stories are valuable, facts are not Wait until the storage shortage story comes back again, just like last year when Deepseek first took down Nvidia and then the new story "cheaper models → explosive usage → more shovel sales" started again, then enter again $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 All analysts say it will drop, but I went long instead I didn't really go all in long, just that inner drive in my heart. The scarier the headline, the less the market cooperates, I want to ask instead, who's putting on a show? Ladies, tonight's list of negative news can be very long: Interest rate cut expectations are blocked, ETF daily frequency is still shaky, whale contracts are getting crushed on both sides, debt numbers are scary. And then guess what? BTC still closed above 65100, and even gained nearly 1% in a day. ETH is even heading for a 4% gain, as if it never read those headlines. This is my contrarian view tonight, not shouting "bull to the moon," but that "headline mapping failure" itself is a signal. First, the market has already traded through the most panic-inducing geopolitical period. The news of the US military pausing strikes came out, oil prices crashed, crypto had already desensitized in advance. Second, there are still three buy signals in the sentiment indicators. Most are on the sidelines, not a frenzy top, nor a capitulation bottom, but a grinding neutral-to-bullish stance. Third, the real danger is trading based on headlines. Trading based on position structure is the right path. Low fees, spot market is green, it looks more like someone is quietly accumulating, not retail frenzy. So my judgment is, don't be scared out of your core positions by the "negative news collection" in the short term, and don't switch to chasing gains just because of one red day. The contrarian approach is to reduce overreaction, not to double down on gambling. Finally, let's talk about today's market highlights, a few directions worth watching: #US military pauses airstrikes on Iran, international oil prices open sharply lower A ceasefire can reduce the most extreme tail risks, but a drop in oil prices does not mean crypto will automatically surge. Tonight's "oil down, coins up" shows the pricing anchor has changed; continuing to force old correlations will only get you repeatedly slapped in the face. #Majority leader says CLARITY unlikely to pass before recess Bill delays have long been a regular on the negative news list, but the market doesn't necessarily punish with a discount. Once the regulatory timeline extends, I prefer to shift trading from "betting on passage" to "holding core assets that can survive the window." #Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision early Thursday The hawkish tail will suppress valuations, but if the dot plot doesn't worsen beyond expectations, BTC may treat volatility as an accumulation range after desensitization. Before the decision, I reduce high-leverage positions, not long-term convictions. $BTC $ETH #contrarian #macro When others are afraid, am I greedy? No, I am also afraid, But I still bought it The point of fear is very specific It's not the candlestick that is scary Institutions are making increasingly 'pragmatic' attitudes. Strategy surprisingly didn't add Bitcoin last week Dollar reserves have been raised to 3.75 billion On one hand, he talked about long-term faith On the other hand, stack up the bullet thickness first Then guess what Spot ETFs are still recording three consecutive weeks of inflows on paper But the volume shrank to just over 30 million that week The past two weeks have been worth hundreds of millions of dollars in progress In the same week, there were two days with outflows and cash-back exceeding 100 million yuan That's just how slow money is It doesn't disappear It shifts gears First Not increasing holdings does not mean being bearish It seems more like the financing environment and the pace of buybacks are telling the story Companies should first safeguard US dollars and ammunition before discussing sweeping the chain Second ETF went from "seven consecutive trading days of progress" to "still advancing on a weekly scale, very shaky on a daily scale" Institutional demand is recovering but remains cautious This structure is best suited for regular betting and not for all-in gambling Third The volume of OTC stablecoins remains high USDT plus USDC is just over 250 billion The bullet pool hasn't dried up What is lacking is the willingness to take risks So my judgment is Mining, treasury, and ETF narratives all lean 'slow' tonight Slowness is not empty It asks you to shift your expectations from weekly bursts back to monthly accumulation I continued in batches myself, not chasing the climax headline Next, let's take a quick look at the latest hot topics and chat casually: #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The trading volume on traditional asset chains has grown so large that it cannot be used as a testing ground, indicating that institutional-level infrastructure is making money. This line is the same type of slow money as Bitcoin's treasury, suitable as an allocation theme, not as a source of daily 18 points of stimulation. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 Computing power guarantees digital stimulation of risk appetite, but when it comes to crypto allocation, it usually benefits large-cap liquidity first, rather than a small coin frenzy. I will treat this as background risk appetite, and my position will still be mainly BTC spot. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables The storage IPO hype reminds us that the global chip capacity competition has entered a new phase, and the story of AI hardware capital spending is far from over. Mapping to crypto is the fuel for the long-term narrative, but the price has already overdrawn a round of expectations in advance. $BTC $ETH #ETF #机构 I didn't cut even after dropping 80%, but today it just rebounded. That was the old me. Now I learn to check the funding rate first, then decide whether to get cocky. Everyone, tonight's futures session feels very divided. The price is in the red but leverage isn't high. Then guess what? BTC's funding rate is about 0.01%, riding the wave. ETH is colder, almost zero. SOL is similarly lukewarm. On OKX, BTC open interest is about 2 billion U. People are here, but the heat isn't strong. What does this mean? First The bullish market is mainly not a short-squeeze feast after the bears collectively get crushed; it's more like spot and neutral positions are pushing prices up. Bulls haven't pushed rates to the frenzy zone. Second, rates are cold + OI is still there. The worst is sweeping back and forth between both sides. You think the trend is coming and you leverage it, but you end up reaping fees and liquidations from insertion and up-and-down insertions. Third, the news about Hyperliquid's top addresses losing over 40 million also reminds us that smart money will also get hit on both sides in this "seemingly insecure" structure. So my judgment is that a zero rate discount is not a mindless long license, but " You can use spot trading and use less high leverage. Wait for rates to rise again before discussing trend acceleration. By the way, let's talk about a few hot topics to see if any of them catch your attention: #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Contracts love to extract liquidity before and after Resolution Night; low rates don't necessarily mean low volatility. I usually lower my high-leverage positions in advance, using small positions to express direction, avoiding losing my principal with a single dot plot statement. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 Regulatory expectations are delayed again,$WLFI Volatility has dropped significantly over the last few sessions, which usually precedes a sharp expansion. The price is tightly coiled, and the direction of the break will be telling for the rest of the week. EP 0.0530 - 0.0543 TP 0.0585 0.0610 0.0645 SL 0.0505 Range-bound trading is the play until we see a definitive move out of this zone. Don't chase the candles; wait for a four-hour close to confirm the strength of the breakout before adding size. Let's go $WLFI #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch It's not me they're talking about, but the batch still jumping at the close. Watching the gainers list makes my palms sweat, but my rationality pushes me back into my chair. PUMP gains about eighteen percent in a day, BEAT around fifteen, LIT follows with nearly ten percent, and old faces like ENA and AAVE are also in the green. And guess what? BTC is only mildly up; the real fireworks are exploding in small and mid-cap coins. Nights like this, with "stable indices but crazy individual coins," make people think they can pick winners precisely. First, late-session moves are often liquidity gaps plus narrative handoffs, not fundamental turnarounds overnight. You might catch the first wave, but the second wave is usually left to the bag holders. Second, on the same day, coins like SHIB retraced eight percent, indicating rapid capital rotation within sectors, not a full bull market hitting the accelerator. Third, my own discipline is simple: I only allow small positions to test volatile coins; profits come from my main BTC and ETH holdings gradually rising, not from gambling on late-session surges. So my judgment is: tonight you can watch the excitement and note the names, but don't treat an eighteen percent daily gain as a new position template. Late-session fireworks are for observation, not heavy chasing. There are also a few other things worth noting today: #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 The exit queue clearing means staking-side selling pressure expectations have eased, combined with multiple large whales accumulating ETH since this morning, making short-term elasticity more active than BTC. I will treat ETH as a high-elasticity core asset, not swap it for the craziest altcoins. #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The tokenized US stocks and RWA derivatives volume has already grown large It's becoming increasingly clear that $ETH is in a similar position to where it was in 2016 and 2020, particularly when looking at the $ETH /$BTC pair. The $ETH /$BTC ratio has historically been closely aligned with the broader macro risk cycle, and today's market structure resembles the same stage seen in those previous cycles. Despite this, many believe $ETH cycle is over because it underperformed between 2022 and 2026, relying on the traditional four-year cycle narrative. However, the macro cycle appears to have lengthened, shifting the timeline. If that's the case, 2026 may correspond more closely to where 2016 and 2020 stood—periods that ultimately preceded $ETH strongest upside moves. If history continues to rhyme, the current phase could represent a delayed cycle rather than a broken one. #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch Last week marked a turning point, with more brokerage activity last weekend, and this week signaling optimism about downgrades began to be released The timing was very well controlled, but unfortunately, I didn't manage my opening timing well However, don't be overly optimistic. If the strait issue isn't resolved, it's very likely that negotiations will continue to be fought while pushing talks to promote talks Once the strait issue is resolved, the optimistic window between the US and Iran can last about 3-4 months. During this period, it depends on how much crude oil prices can fall. In 3-4 months, regardless of Trump's win or lose, it's highly likely that Iran will be targeted again! #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower $AEON 说几句大实话👇 先说背景：币安YZi Labs孵化的，有币安光环，团队全华人，有币安前员工，也有谷歌普通工程师（非核心岗，带队的叫李一阳）。但问题来了： 1. 项目做什么？ AI支付 + 链接全球商户，听着很宏大。 2. 真实落地呢？目前几乎为0。白皮书画的饼很圆，现实离落地还差十万八千里。 3. 这个赛道能跑通吗？ 2021年就有人干过——钱包+加密银行卡，线上支付线下收款全打通，几十家商户对接好了。结果呢？不到两个月就死了。现实商户支付赛道，不是技术问题，是落地、合规、推广的问题。前车之鉴摆在那，AEON凭什么能成？团队背景普通，赛道已被验证难跑通，项目还处于概念阶段。总结：有币安光环不假，但别被光环晃了眼。高风险投资，谨慎参与。至少等看到真实落地数据再考虑。What Amazon's worth watching most is not net profit, but the free cash flow which has dropped to only $1.2 billion. Amazon's Q2 2026 earnings will be announced on July 30. If you only look at net profit this time, you might reach the wrong conclusion. The official Q1 net profit was $30.255 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.78, but this included a $16.8 billion pre-tax gain from the Anthropic investment. Investment revaluation is not part of the daily operating income of AWS, retail, or advertising, so it must be separated in analysis. What’s more worth tracking is cash flow. Amazon’s Q1 report shows that for the twelve months ending March 2026, operating cash flow grew 30% to $148.5 billion; however, free cash flow dropped from $25.9 billion a year ago to $1.2 billion. The main reason is a $59.3 billion year-over-year increase in net purchases of property and equipment, with the company explicitly stating that the increase mainly reflects investments in artificial intelligence. These figures are not simply good or bad. Operating cash flow remains strong, indicating the core business has cash-generating ability; free cash flow near zero indicates that data centers, chips, and other infrastructure are absorbing large amounts of cash. What Q2 needs to confirm is whether the pace of investment, asset delivery rhythm, and AWS revenue are starting to form a clearer correspondence, rather than treating capital expenditures uniformly as waste or benefit. Consolidated operating profit also needs to be broken down. Q1 total company operating profit was $23.852 billion, with AWS contributing $14.161 billion, North American retail $8.267 billion, and international business $1.424 billion. AWS remains the largest profit source, but retail in both regions is also profitable. If Q2 only looks at AWS, it will overlook the impact of fulfillment efficiency, Prime Day timing, and international business on consolidated profit. After the earnings report, I will first extract operating cash flow and property and equipment expenditures from the cash flow statement, then calculate free cash flow; only afterward will I compare net profit and investment gains or losses. This avoids non-operating items like Anthropic masking the core business trend. Before the official results are released, Q1 numbers serve only as a comparative baseline; Q2’s cash flow, capital expenditures, and investment gains or losses cannot be assumed in advance. Free cash flow near zero does not mean cash is depleted. Amazon’s operating cash flow scale is very large, and capital expenditures are the main difference; it is necessary to see if asset formation can bring efficiency improvements to AWS, advertising, and retail. Conversely, just because spending is on AI does not automatically imply high returns; returns must still be proven by subsequent revenue, profit, and cash flow. If Q2 again shows large investment fair value gains or losses, I will list them separately outside the headline to avoid mixing them with the core business. Earnings per share is only one of the results, not the sole criterion. This kind of breakdown may not be as sensational as a "surge or crash" headline, but it better fits long-term content quality. The final report will also note that free cash flow uses the company’s official definition and list the actual impact of investment gains or losses on core net profit.Just scanned through the Alt/BTC pairs, feeling a bit cold and a bit warm. 🫧 Have you noticed that the market is quietly drawing up a "winners vs losers" list recently? The changes in this round of Alt/BTC pairs are actually the funds voting with their feet, repricing every chip based on expectations. This is not just a numbers game of price changes, but the market telling us which side to stand on. Look at the data I have on hand: - SOL/BTC up 8%, gaming token LAB/BTC up 15%, BSB/BTC up 12% — these are the winners where funds are actively increasing positions. - On the other side, BEAT/BTC down 20%, COAI/BTC down 25%, SPACE/BTC down 30% — these are the ruthless abandoned losers. Why is this important? Because Alt/BTC pairs are a thermometer of risk appetite. When funds withdraw from tokens with unclear narratives and poor liquidity, and concentrate into tokens like SOL, JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, ZKP that have clear ecosystems or community support, it means the market is executing a "meritocracy" reshuffle. This is not a simple sector rotation but a repricing of each project: those who can deliver on their narrative stay; those left with only slogans get left behind. But risks also hide in the details. Some tokens in the winners list, like JELLYJELLY, have risen too steeply in the short term, and if BTC pulls back, they might be the first targets for profit-taking sell-offs. Meanwhile, losers like BEAT, EDGE, COAI, if fundamentals don’t change drastically, have a high probability of continuing to drift down. Also, the overall Alt/BTC pairs have not shown a broad rally, indicating limited total funds, not a full market celebration, more like subtraction. My understanding is: now is not the time to blindly buy altcoins, but to do subtraction by shifting positions toward the winners list and decisively stop losses on losers. In terms of rhythm, if BTC can hold steady at the current level, the strong coins in the winners list may continue to accumulate; but if BTC crashes sharply, winners will also be pressured, though they will rebound faster. So, to sum up in one sentence: follow the winners, don’t fall in love with the losers. 💫 (A brief disclaimer: the above is only personal market observation notes, not any buy or sell advice, please judge independently.) $SOL $JELLYJELLY $OPG $SLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP $ZKP $BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $VIRTUAL $MEGA #AltBTC #CryptoMarket #RiskManagement While the U.S. and Iran expect a ceasefire, the US stock market has just undergone a "bloodbath"—these two events may seem unrelated, but they are actually secretly intertwined. Today, let's break it down and talk about what secrets are really hidden behind all this. To start with the conclusion: the US stock market crashed in a flash, and it's not really the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but even the ceasefire failed to pull the market out of the pit. On July 24th, the US tech scene was known as "Black Thursday." When Google's parent company Alphabet released its earnings report, the market was stunned—capital expenditure this year is expected to reach $205 billion, but what about the money AI earns? No idea. Tesla is even worse, with profits far below expectations, and Musk even added that 2026 is a "big year of capital expenditure." As a result, the "Seven Tech Giants" lost nearly $800 billion in market value in a single day, causing the Nasdaq to plunge nearly 2%. What does this have to do with the US-Iran ceasefire? To be honest, it doesn't have much direct relevance. The culprit behind the crash that day was the weakening of the AI bubble's faith. Wall Street suddenly realized that these tech giants had spent hundreds of billions on AI, but the returns were far off. It's like your friend borrowing money from you every day, saying they want to start a business, but after three years of borrowing, you still haven't seen the product. Aren't you panicking? But the US-Iran conflict has always been 'fanning the flames' from the sidelines. Let's look at the timeline in a longer way. In 2026, the US-Iran conflict will last from the beginning of the year to mid-year, with the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing, and oil prices riding a roller coaster. When oil prices rise, inflation can't be suppressed, and the Fed's rate cuts are a distant prospect. So what are tech stocks most afraid of? The biggest fear is high interest rates. The valuations of those AI companies are all based on a "bright future" vision; when the discount rate is high, their current stock prices have to be discounted. So you see, although the US-Iran conflict didn't directly dump stocks, it planted a pitfall for tech stocks → high valuations through the hidden lines of oil prices→ inflation, and interest rates. The market is like a taut string; AI financial reports are the last straw that breaks the camel's back, and geopolitical risks have long made this string tight enough. By July 27, the US and Iran suddenly said, "Let's not fight for now," causing oil prices to plunge 6%, and Brent crude plunged from its peak to $91. Logically, this would be huge news—with oil prices falling and inflationary pressure easing, could the Federal Reserve finally breathe a sigh of relief? U.S. stock futures did rise that day, with Nasdaq futures jumping 1.2%. But strangely, the market did not celebrate excessively. Why? Because traders have learned their lesson. How long can this ceasefire last? There was also a halt two weeks ago, but Iran was accused of violating the agreement. Trump lashed out on social media, and the stock market still fell. More importantly, the Houthis continue to attack Saudi oil facilities, with fewer than 10 cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and shipowners are afraid to enter the area. This ceasefire feels more like a "halftime break" than a "final whistle." So, do you understand? The relationship between the US-Iran ceasefire and the US stock market crash is not simply causal, but rather a kind of "superimposed" vulnerability. The market faces two uncertainties simultaneously: one is the geopolitical "black box"—when Trump tweets, oil prices can jump wildly; The other is the "falsification" of AI narratives—can hundreds of billions really be spent? These two risks are not mutually exclusive, but rather amplify. When local market risk is high, people can use "risk avoidance" to explain holding positions; But when AI's fundamentals start to collapse, the market can no longer find safe havens. What's even more painful is that a US-Iran ceasefire has exposed a problem: even if oil prices fall, can the tech stock problem be solved? The answer is no. Alphabet still has to spend 205 billion, and Tesla's Robotaxi should be postponed. Falling oil prices at most open up some room for the Fed to cut rates, but valuation restructuring of tech stocks is unavoidable. Simply put, the market turmoil in July 2026 is a relay race between "old risks" (geopolitical conflicts) and "new risks" (AI bubbles). The US-Iran conflict has scared the market into a cold sweat, and AI earnings reports have left the market stunned. With the news of the ceasefire, the geopolitical baton has temporarily been set aside, but the AI baton is still pushing forward—and heading toward a cliff. For ordinary investors like us, it's important to understand this: don't assume the stock market should rise just because oil prices have dropped or stopped operations. If tech giants' performance can't hold up, even easing geopolitical tensions won't support high valuations. Conversely, if AI can truly deliver returns, even if the Strait of Hormuz closes again, the market can still hold out. In short: a US-Iran ceasefire can save oil prices, but it cannot save AI's faith crisis. The US stock market crash is, on the surface, a financial report crash, but in reality, the market is collectively "clear-headed" amid multiple uncertainties. Instead of betting on how long the ceasefire will last, it's better to seriously think—when will the promises those tech companies have been making will finally be ready?SanDisk SNDK plunges! Don't look for negative news everywhere; the truth is hidden in the logic of cycles $SNDK Today, Sandisk experienced a clear pullback, prompting many people to immediately look for sudden negative announcements. Reviewing public information, it is clear that the company did not experience any major black swan events today; the decline was driven by a three-layer logic resonance and capital adjustments. 1. Fundamental expectations for the industry have loosened Sandisk's core business is NAND flash memory, with its stock price highly tied to storage cycles. According to TrendForce's latest industry data for July: AI server demand continues to provide support, but demand for consumer electronics terminals remains weak. Downstream customers are nearing their upper limit for high-priced chips, and the increase in NAND contract prices has narrowed significantly. The spot market only stabilized briefly, and overall actual buying momentum was not strong. As major original manufacturers continue to expand production and advance technological iterations, the market is beginning to worry that the supply-demand pattern will gradually loosen going forward. To put it bluntly: the market is beginning to maneuver, the flash memory price hike is nearing its peak, and profit growth is falling short of previous expectations. 2. Storage sector funds collectively reduced holdings, and sector betas plunged Recently, memory-related stocks such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have weakened in tandem, with the storage sector generally pulling back more than 20% from previous highs. Funds are shifting their trading approach: no longer blindly betting on AI + storage price increases, and beginning to reassess whether high valuations can be sustained. Sandisk, as a pure NAND cyclical asset, has extremely high volatility flexibility. During the sector's capital exit phase, it is naturally sold off simultaneously; the decline is not entirely due to the individual stock's own problems. 3. Earnings window period game game: Funds choose to cash out early The company's key timelines have been clarified: the quarterly report and full-year results will be released on August 5, and the investor communication day will be held on August 13. Although the company announced progress on BICS10 1TB TLC 3D NAND samples in early July, which is a long-term technical benefit, short-term capital is more concerned about ASP prices, gross margins, and demand guidance for the second half of the year. In an environment where industry prosperity signals are weakening at the margin, funds choose to "cash in first and wait for earnings reports to verify expectations." For semiconductor cyclical stocks, it is very common for valuations to be cut ahead of earnings reports. ✅ To sum up this drop in one sentence: It wasn't a sudden negative news that triggered the rally, but rather a slowdown in NAND price momentum, weak consumer demand, and capital withdrawal across the entire storage sector. Combined with pre-earnings market expectations, the market downgraded Sandisk's short-term valuation ahead of schedule. Focus on three core signals to watch (trading reference) 1. Whether the decline continues to increase volume: This increase in volume indicates institutions are actively adjusting their positions, which is different from pure emotional fluctuations; 2. Whether the decline significantly underperformed peers: If the decline far exceeds other storage companies, it indicates negative news for independent stocks; 3. August 5 Financial Report Management's Guidance: This is the most critical dividing line between "short-term misselling" and "trend reversal." ⚠️ This is merely an industry logic review and does not constitute any investment advice $SNDK Over the past month, the defensive stance in the Bitcoin options market has clearly decreased, with the put/call open interest ratio dropping from 0.76 at the end of June to about 0.52. Traders are unwinding the downside protection established during the most severe pullback period—just as the Federal Reserve prepares for its meeting on July 28-29. The one-week implied volatility has narrowed to 34.3%, while the six-month implied volatility stands at 40.8%; the one-week 25-delta skew has fallen to about 4%, whereas the three-month and six-month contract skews remain around 11-12%. The options market expects the next seven days (including the Fed rate decision, major tech earnings, and oil prices near $97) to be calmer than the following six months. During Thursday's sell-off, Bitcoin prices held near $65,000. This sell-off wiped out $797 billion in market value from the largest U.S. tech stocks, while blockchain networks Movement Labs and Storj filed for bankruptcy, and BitMEX and BitMart announced shutdown plans. Under the basic assumption of a 15% rate hike in July, near-term options pricing remains reasonably acceptable—but if the Fed's statement or forecast surprises, the buffer is very thin, and such weak positioning often amplifies this risk. Put/Call Option Ratio—Dropped from 0.76 to 0.52 within one month The put/call option ratio fell from 0.76 at the end of June to the current 0.52, directly reflecting a significant reduction in defensive positions in the options market Oil prices plunged 7% in 7 minutes! $BTC Directly surged back to 65,000! The market is jumping ahead again! The US military bombed Iran for 13 days before suddenly announcing a ceasefire. As a result, international oil prices crashed 7% within minutes of opening, with Brent crude plunging from above $100 all the way to around $91. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher, Bitcoin returned to $65,000, and gold and silver also rose. Last week, everyone was still frantically trading the script of oil prices breaking 100, uncontrolled inflation, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, causing everyone to panic. As a result, after the U.S. military stopped for two days, oil prices crashed and all risk assets returned. The market's probability of a ceasefire before the end of August has now soared to 75%, as if this is already decided. But what about reality? Iran has clearly expressed doubts, saying the Houthis are still operating, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted. There is no sign of a ceasefire agreement at all. I increasingly feel that the market is not reflecting the real situation at all, but rather racing ahead of its own imagination. Last week I was still selling risk assets, but this week I rushed back to buy. The same group, the same region, the script was completely flipped in just seven days. Seeing this market trend made me shake my head; before the news even landed, the price had already run the whole way. Don't rush to chase highs, and don't be easily led by news. Let things settle first before dealing with them. $CL $BZ $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened down sharply by #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 A couple of days ago, $ALLO suddenly plummeted, but now the price has gradually stabilized. This drop was quite significant, with the price dropping from about $0.55 to around $0.33, a drop of roughly 40%. This is not a small amount. If it can rebound now, even if it rebounds back to its original level, the increase could be 60-70%. According to previous patterns, $ALLO rebounds usually do not fall below the original position. In other words, bottom-fishing can yield significant returns. The question now is: can we buy the bottom at this price? —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data over the past few days. It can be seen that during the crash, its open interest rapidly declined, while its contract long-short ratio kept rising. My analysis shows that during the crash, many bears took profit. This is actually a good thing; short profit-taking indicates that the bears' strength is diminishing. Let me take another look at its contract data from the past two days. It can be seen that when the price remains largely stable, its open interest first decreases, then increases, and then rises again, forming a wave-like pattern. Personally, I believe this is the result of short closing and long bottom-fishing happening simultaneously. In the early stages, the process was first reduced and then increased. I think that's how the process works. After $ALLO fell, the main factor was the strength of short profit-taking; After $ALLO fell for a while, bullish bottom-fishing has once again become the main factor. After that, the increase and then decrease are as follows. I think that's how the process works. At $ALLO Looking at it now, the biggest benefit RWA has for retail investors is that it allows their funds to be fully utilized even during bear markets. A 4%–5% USD return is quite small, but it's much better than participating in high-risk DeFi mining. Now, Maple's pure U yield is close to 5%, and Plume also has an RWA yield vault, basically including traditional portfolios like bonds, CLOs, and funds. $Ondo has also started promoting stocks and ETF tokens into the lending market, Of course, RWA concept coins still operate on a different fundamental basis from these RWA businesses; governance tokens do not have the right to receive management fees, spreads, or dividends, Project revenue belongs to company shareholders, consensus belongs to token holders, Moreover, RWA projects themselves are very difficult to be affected by token prices, I find it hard to directly equate RWA tokens with blue-chip assets, Unless ONDO suddenly transitions into an on-chain RWA index. $DOGE $SOL #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Prediction Approach 1: Another sure-win market Predict has recently entered some markets, and liquidity is still being replenished. This year's Nobel Prize will be announced in early October by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. The official list of candidates will not be made public, and all nomination information will be kept confidential for 50 years, so the public can only analyze based on public nominations, international affairs, and forecasted markets. The results of the awards often reflect the value orientations of mainstream European society regarding peace, human rights, international law, and humanitarianism. 1⃣ Putin, Netanyahu—one Russia-Ukraine war, one Gaza conflict, the possibility is zero. The probability of a certain university and Elon Musk is basically zero. Zelensky and the International Court of Justice are just here to play a role. 2⃣ Trump, if he can end the Iran conflict, there is a slight chance. 3⃣ Currently, in the prediction market: the probability of organizations winning is significantly higher than that of individuals 🥇Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms have gained widespread international recognition for organizing grassroots relief, medical care, and food aid during the Sudanese civil war. 🥈Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) has long been involved in humanitarian relief in conflict zones such as Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine. 🥉 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for the Near East (UNRWA) These three are the most likely ones. So choosing No1 is basically a guaranteed profit. The price isn't large, but you can take PP and follow your position OKBoost has released another famous airdrop, but it's not really recommended to farm 1. Currently, @okboost has almost no remaining airdrops on its books 2. Currently, the total airdrop value is 360,000 USD. Assuming 100,000 people participate, each would be 3.6 USD, which is not Da Mao 3. Airdrop to alpha users today, then to boost users tomorrow. Now that Alpha users have been cut in half, tomorrow Boost users will add another cut, and even 30 units might not be enough 4. Costs have surged. After Boost changed its rules, it forced everyone to farm mainstream coins like $OKB OKB and BTC on Xlayer, but Xlayer had poor liquidity and very high wear and tear. Previously, a single $USDG cycle (46% commission) only cost 23U, but now it might double to about 40U. Relying on an airdrop alone can't break even. Although QIC costs much lower, I've analyzed in the community that the probability of $qic witches is much higher than other tokens. Cold Salad $LAB 2000 年，互联网泡沫破裂。成百上千家网站一夜归零，媒体和投资人几乎异口同声：互联网就是一场骗局。那时候的互联网也就是搜索、购物、发邮件，看起来没什么新鲜的，更看不出未来。可就在最悲观的时候，谷歌和亚马逊已经开始跑出来了。谷歌让广告模式成熟，无数网站第一次有了稳定收入；亚马逊把支付、物流、推荐系统一步步打通，让电商真正形成了完整生态。后来大家才发现，一个行业不需要一开始就百花齐放，只要有一两个真正能自我造血、满足真实需求的应用跑通，就足以带动整个生态不断扩张。今天很多人看区块链，其实和当年看互联网很像。觉得没创新、没未来，真正出圈、能赚钱的好像翻来覆去只有稳定币和 RWA，于是一批人转身去追 AI，离开了币圈。但换个角度看，如果 RWA 真正跑通、实现规模化，它很可能就会像当年的谷歌、亚马逊一样，催生出今天我们根本想象不到的新应用和新商业模式。更重要的是，RWA 是目前少数真正吸引传统金融真金白银持续进入的赛道，BlackRock、Franklin、Circle、Ondo、WisdomTree 这些机构都在布局。这时候与其天天猜下一个热点，不如把更多精力放在观察 RWA 是否还在快速扩张，以及哪些资产能够真正捕获这轮价值，比如 ETH、DeFi 等基础设施。一个真正革命性的创新，红利往往不是一两年，而是十年以上。2007 年第一代 iPhone 发布时，没人想到苹果后来会成长到今天；谷歌、亚马逊也是如此。只要方向没错，真正的机会，往往属于那些愿意一直留在牌桌上的人。$ETH $BTC $SNDK #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The market is taking a breather after the US-Iran pause. The Dow rose 429 points, while the S&P was barely moving. Oil prices dropped sharply—Brent dropped 6.8% to $90.25, and WTI dropped 6.1% to $83.83. A typical "risk-seeking retreat." Geopolitical premiums are being rapidly priced out. If oil prices continue to fall, this will ease deflationary pressures—giving the central bank more room to cut rates without fearing another surge in inflation. Watch how this will affect Fed expectations and broader risk appetite. Lower energy costs = more disposable income = future consumer spending data may be better. It is still too early, but such trends often trigger chain reactions in currency markets and capital flows in emerging markets. $CL $BZ $BTC #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower Three days ago, my account still had 20,000 left, but today I saw it had reached 80,000. Just kidding—real accounts aren't this dramatic. But the internal division within the sector is even more exciting than the account curve. Bitcoin is in the red today. If you only look at total market cap, you'd think everyone is happy together. Then guess what? SHIB dropped about 8 points in one day, M dropped over 5 points, and VVV was about the same magnitude. On one side, the mainstream stabilized; on the other, previously hot names are giving back. This isn't a "full-market crash"—it's a realignment of seats. First, sentiment coins that have risen too much are the easiest to take profits first On the gainers chart, PUMP BEAT is still bouncing, but on the losers list is another group of yesterday's stars, showing that money hasn't left crypto but is just being squeezed out of crowded trading. Second, ETH is actually close to a 4-point strength today. Funds prefer to stay on big players with narrative and liquidity. Small-cap, high-volatility stocks are dumped at the slightest sign of trouble. Third, don't treat the decliners list as doomsday lists. When structural divergence occurs, the biggest fear is holding onto the most crowded segment and using leverage. So my judgment is that when reading losses tonight, first ask "Who is falling?" Mainstream support Edge drawdowns should prioritize reducing crowding and preserving core stocks, rather than just seeing a popular knockoff and thinking the bear market is returning. Also, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about recently: #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Changxin's surge in the STAR Market rewrites the global storage pricing narrative, Korean storage stocks surged intraday but then retreated, reflecting crypto as AI hardware themes with repeated pricing. Don't buy all AI-related coins at once, distinguishing between order logic and pure sentiment tickets 我赌性大，刚刚抄了点美光 $MU ，今天这波下跌应该是长鑫制造的恐慌题材被利用进一步下杀叠加这几天又炒作起来的本周FOMC加息共同作用的。但是我觉得美联储如果这次为了杀鸡儆猴也就是立威加息反而破坏了自己的权威，不是说好全看数据的么，现在数据也不支持加息啊但我下午确实也在想，这两周油价反弹是否也在为加息提供借口呢？让市场捉摸不透才是沃什的真实意图，既然捉摸不透就不猜了，买定离手，赌他不加，真要加也得9月。前低855损，破了就跑#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ $ETH $SNDK I just finished lunch and casually checked the market quotes, and my mouth almost spat out the food It's not that BTC has risen I saw an analyst report Bernstein raised Naver's target price by 58% 58%. Not 5. 8% A top investment bank gives a Korean internet company 58% of the upside potential What is the reason? AI factory strategy I was stunned for a moment Isn't Naver basically a search engine? Looking closely, Naver has long been more than just searching Its layout in AI infrastructure From data centers to AI chips to cloud services The entire chain is being implemented Bernstein said this is the AI factory strategy To put it bluntly It's about building AI like a factory Then guess what On the same day, SK Hynix's Q2 results are also expected to hit a record high South Korea's AI industry chain It is being repriced across the board Storage Hynix Search Naver At every stage, institutions are raising their expectations This is not an isolated Korean story It is the performance of the entire AI hardware industry chain So my judgment is AI investment has moved from concept speculation to a performance validation phase A company that can produce real things It will be repriced by the market You can't get it Gradually, they are forgotten Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching: #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 This scale of 250 billion is no longer an investment but an industry-level endorsement. Nvidia's bet on OpenAI shows that AI's commercialization prospects have reached a level where such guarantees can be afforded, which is a positive signal for the entire tech sector #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The RWA sector's monthly trading volume of 470 billion indicates that institutional-level funds are already being used. This is not a small move, but a real volume. Coupled with the standards for tokenized securities delisting and regulation keeping pace, once the direction is set, it's only a matter of time #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Changxin reached 130 billion yuan on its first day, with 61% of the trading hands in Korea. Korean retail investors were short on the US and funds went long. This tear apart itself is a microcosm of global storage repricing. The storage sector has shifted from a cyclical industry to an AI-driven growth sector, and the logic has changed #AI #存储 #科技股 I've been watching since yesterday afternoon, my eyes are almost blinded, but it's worth it. Because I discovered an interesting data: BTC's market cap realized value ratio has dropped to a multi-year low. Many people might not be familiar with this indicator, so let me briefly explain: this indicator measures the deviation between BTC's market value and realized value. Simply put, when this indicator is low, it means the market is in an undervalued zone; when it is high, it means the market is overheated. It is currently at multi-year lows, but analysis also says the bottom hasn't been fully explored. This 'not yet' is very subtle, meaning the price is not high But it might be even lower. And guess what? I actually think this is an opportunity. Why? Because today there are still three buy signals bright: USDC and USDT premium are buy-BTC liquidity indexes, borrowing rates are buy-like, and buy data does not support a deeper decline. So my judgment is that the phrase "low but not bottomed" itself is a left-side positioning signal. You don't necessarily have to buy at the lowest point, but starting to build positions in batches at this level is probably a smart choice. By the way, let's talk about some hot topics. See if there's anything you care about: #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply with a sharp drop. Oil prices dropped more than two points, but Hormuz hasn't been opened yet. Iran also says negotiations haven't resumed. This pause feels more like a tactical adjustment. BTC continues to hover at 65K. Desensitization between geopolitics and BTC is already very clear. Instead of focusing on oil prices, it's better to look at ETF data. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The new draft includes moral clauses, which is a good thing To be honest, $WLD coin is pretty frustrating. The March 2024 high was $11.8, now it's $0.38, down 97%, lying on the ground for nearly two years without anyone looking at it. But in recent days, things suddenly started to happen—on July 20, Grayscale submitted an application to the SEC for a WLD spot ETF (ticker GWLD, listed on Nasdaq), the Worldcoin Foundation sold 217 million coins at a 36% discount, raising $52.5 million for Pantera, and the July 24 milestone when daily unlocks cut 43% had just passed. With several lines coming together, this coin has quietly rebounded 67% from the May low of 0.2279. I think this project's narrative has always been sexy, but the price has always been disappointing. Now it might be a window worth a look. Let's talk about three perspectives below. 📈 ------ Market: Still in the hole, but some have started digging the soil. Currently, WLD is priced around $0.38, with a market cap of about $1.34 billion, ranking outside the top 40 in the crypto sector. On the day the news about Grayscale ETF broke, it surged more than 8% in one go, breaking above the upper boundary of the 4-hour downward channel, and selling pressure seemed to ease a bit. But note—the main logic behind this rebound is that the market is betting early on a lower unlock rate on July 24, which is an "expectation trade," not that fundamentals have already been realized. Technically, 0.38-0.40 is a support zone, with resistance at 0.4536 above, and further up 0.58-0.60 is the initial trapping zone. Don't get carried away just by hearing about ETFs. Grayscale just handed over S-1 prices, still far from actually tradable, for reference Tokens like JTO and JELLYJELLY are accumulating liquidity, while BEAT and TRUMP have entered a cooling phase, while MEME and ZKP remain in a state without funds. Does this rotation meet the conditions for the trend to continue, or is it about to fail? The original article provides four key pieces of information: first, funds are withdrawing from several popular types; second, a few tokens are still receiving liquidity injections; third, most types are experiencing liquidity exhaustion; and fourth, BTC, ETH, SOL, TAO, WLD, HYPE, DOGE, and ZEC are positioned as core market anchors. All this information is based on observed on-chain capital flows and is verifiable short-term fact. From a market structure perspective, this is not a typical knockoff season, but rather an extremely selective redistribution of funds. Liquidity is concentrated in eight tokens: JTO, JELLYJELLY, BTCOPG, BTCSLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP, while the remaining tokens face capital withdrawal. This distribution indicates that market risk appetite is narrowing rather than spreading. For BTC and ETH, withdrawing funds from widespread knockoffs may actually strengthen their status as liquidity safe havens, especially BTC, which was originally called the "King of Liquidity." ETH may benefit from the relative preference of institutional funds. SOL plays a high-beta role, and its price fluctuations will amplify overall sentiment in the altcoin sector. Conditions for a bullish path: If liquidity accumulation in tokens like JTO and JELLYJELL can sustain and drive prices above key resistance levels (such as JTO's weekly pre-weekly high), it may trigger a new round of follow-up buying, shifting rotation from "contraction" to "diffusion." At this point, stabilization or breakout of BTC and ETH will act as a catalyst for risk appetite. Conditions for bearish risk: If cooling stocks like BEAT, TRUMP, and RAVE accelerate their decline, or if stocks without funds like MEME and ZKP continue to lose blood, it will indicate that capital rotation is ending rather than just a relay. At this point, market risk premiums will rise sharply, and BTC and ETH may also come under pressure due to liquidity withdrawal. Especially for HYPE, as a risk appetite indicator, if its price breaks below key support, it will confirm a deterioration in market sentiment. Failure Conditions: The core scenario for rotation trend failure is when funds flow back into cooling stocks, while accumulated stocks experience a drop in volume. This usually means the rotation cycle has ended and the market is entering an overall correction. Key signals of trend failure: observe whether cooling stocks like BEAT and TRUMP recover their losses within three days, and whether MEME and ZKP show volume increases. If the former occurs, it indicates that funds are still searching for alternative targets; If the latter occurs, it may be an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. Conclusion: The current rotation structure is highly fragile. Whether the trend continues depends on whether accumulated stocks can break through and drive capital spread, not rebounds in cooling stocks. If the accumulated stocks fail to break out within three days and the cooling stocks accelerate their decline, it should be regarded as a rotation failure signal and risk exposure reduced. Risk Warning: This observation is based solely on the original information and does not constitute any trading advice. $BTC $ETH $JTO $HYPE $DOGE $ZEC Looking at a 2-3 year cycle, mainstream crypto coins are a highly certain allocation choice. The US storage sector continues to decline, making it difficult to predict a cycle reversal; The hardware sector also experienced a sharp correction, with heavy positions risking extremely high levels; The software track is also not currently the main theme of the market. The current level of the A-share market does not have an absolute advantage at low levels. Looking at global assets, mainstream crypto stocks like Bitcoin and $BTC have clear bull-bear cycles and a clear recovery logic. Currently, BTC's AHR999 indicator is 0.34, already below the classic bottom-fishing line of 0.45, which is a suitable range for dollar-cost averaging. Bitcoin has previously fallen below the 200-week moving average, a signal that has appeared at the bottom of every bear market in history. In terms of timing, the second half of the year is generally a phase of bottoming out and searching, and it will gradually enter the bull market on the right side only by mid-next year. Retail investors with average swing trading skills should avoid frequent short-term trading at this stage, as it is easy to miss out on subsequent upward moves.I almost thought I was blind during this morning's refreshing—$SHIB Today I directly pierced the bottom of the 0.0000060 range, which had been sideways for two weeks. The current price is around 0.00000588, down 4%-5% in 24 hours. Trading volume didn't expand, but the selling pressure was real. Here are a few points worth pondering about today: 1) Whales are quietly trading, not quietly buying. CMF (Capital Flow) turned negative, and large wallets have been moving goods on-chain to exchanges these past two days. Macro instability + overall meme wave is retreating, with big funds first withdrawing from high-cap memes. 2) Burning coins at 1034% is a "good-looking but useless" stat. This week it burned tens of millions to hundreds of millions, sounds impressive, but SHIB's total supply is 589 trillion, and the burning is barely enough to fill the gaps. Short-term prices can't be pushed and can only be considered a long-term placebo. 3) Shibarium failed to catch the moment. Originally, the story was about leveraging L2 to pull real TPS and shed the pure meme label, but new ecosystem memes competed for traffic, Shibarium's growth slowed, and the narrative returned to "relying on BTC's face." At the technical level, the next stop is 0.0000050, which analysts refer to as the "multi-year bottom." If it holds, there's still a chance to bounce to 0.0000068; if not, that's another story. Personal commentary: SHIB is a token with a few hundred T supply, no BTC big bullish candlestick + no new narrative double buff, relying solely on coin burning for digital hype, third place Changxin Technology's first day of listing, A-shares are crazy, but US storage stocks crashed first. Tonight, Hynix $SKHY, Micron $MU, and SanDisk $SNDK all plummeted. The market has already started to worry that after Changxin expands production, global DRAM competition will become increasingly fierce. Today is just the first day; the real game is just beginning. Is it that Changxin has changed the global storage landscape, or is it that capital is taking profits by trading on the news?The market is indeed dull and boring now, and fewer bloggers persist in daily market updates. Cash itself is a type of position, and patience is also a trading strategy. In the short term, the market is likely to remain volatile. During the decline in February this year, I already marked a consolidation range. This level had strong support, and without sudden major negative news, it was hard to break below directly. It was destined to be a prolonged round grinding session. Personally, I believe it will be very difficult to return to the previous high of $82,000 this year. This rebound, based on weekly moving average resistance, $BTC is highly likely to test $71,000-72,000, with Ethereum looking toward around $2,100. If it subsequently effectively breaks below the $60,000 mark, I believe the probability remains high. Currently, there is no major systemic negative news in the market. Previously, FTX's collapse was mostly triggered by institutions themselves being overly leveraged and lacking risk control to trigger a chain crisis. Now, as small and medium-sized exchanges gradually exit the market, the core reason is that the industry's incremental capital is drying up, competition for existing assets is becoming increasingly fierce, and platforms with weaker business capabilities are naturally being phased out. Overall, the market is in a long phase of stock reshuffling, with no new grand narrative, so there's no need to forcefully seek trading opportunities. If there is a fluctuation, patiently observe and watch; the market can wait, but there is no need to rush funds into the market.What I'm really interested in today is Trench Life, but for now, it's only worth putting on a very early watchlist. What attracts me most isn't how much the price has just gone up, but that the website really does have a full set of 3D browser games loaded behind the scenes. I checked the code loaded on the website. It doesn't just have promotional text, but also includes shared cities, player online status, quests, vehicles, identity claims, and multiplayer server logic; The game code also directly includes the correct token contract. This at least proves that products and tokens are not temporarily pieced together on pages with the same name. Complete contract: 92t87DktrvYAi4yuv4TwhAbF4E2C934rJf9zqgsipump Game: https://trenchlife.io/ Trading data: https://dexscreener.com/solana/DJ1uErUg6qqy8ZDSQPmEXByPZ4jNVmMVyk1ZYdUW6V86 Security and holdings: https://rugcheck.xyz/tokens/92t87DktrvYAi4yuv4TwhAbF4E2C934rJf9zqgsipump The on-chain surface has not yet encountered the most glaring issues. At the time of initial recording, the price was about $0.000128, with an estimated total value of about $118,000, and the trading pool funds were about $24,700;Revolut начал продавать $AAVE прямо из cold storage. За последние 24 часа на Coinbase было отправлено более $6.44M в $AAVE. Раньше Revolut обычно продавал AAVE через hot wallets. Но в последние дни ситуация изменилась. Теперь монеты начали выводиться из cold storage и отправляться на биржу для продажи. Для меня это говорит о двух вещах. Во-первых, ликвидность по $AAVE сейчас достаточно высокая. Во-вторых, крупный игрок, похоже, решил воспользоваться этим моментом и продавать объём прямо в спрос покупателей. Когда даже cold storage начинает становиться источником предложения, я бы внимательно следила за дальнейшими потоками. Community live evening short position $ETH has already been safely exited Before ending the broadcast, it was given that as long as it does not break the new low! Rebound 45, second entry 🎉 Currently already entered $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Tonight's market is quite interesting—within the same storage sector, A-shares and US stocks have become polarized opposites. Changxin Technology (688825) made its debut on the STAR Market today, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan. It closed at nearly 49 yuan, an increase of 471%, with a market value reaching 3.31 trillion yuan, directly topping the A-share market with daily turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan, setting a new historical record for the A-share market. At the same time, on the US side, SanDisk fell 12%, Micron down 6%, Philadelphia Semiconductor down 4.25%, and storage ETFs (DRAM) down 8.75%. One card table, two faces. Who the money is with, who is being embraced? No need to say more. Whose cheese is Changxin really messing with this time? Many people get confused—Changxin is making DRAM (memory), SanDisk is NAND (flash storage), so theoretically, they're not direct competitors. But tonight, SanDisk was smashed along with Micron, not because of product benchmarking, but because the "overseas storage monopoly premium" was completely repriced. With Changxin's IPO today, several lines have been revealed simultaneously: • ByteDance's $7 billion and five-year long-term contract, revealed by Reuters, showing that Changxin is no longer a "domestic substitution concept" but can truly compete with Chinese customers from overseas giants • By the end of 2026, monthly production capacity will reach 350,000 wafers, SemiAnalysis approaches, approaching Micron and aiming for third place globally; The prospectus says 17% DRAM share for 2028 • The Hefei phase II construction site is still booming late at night, with full lines laid out in Beijing and Shanghai Lingang, expanding production much more aggressively than Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron—the overseas three are 'expanding in discussion,' while Changxin is 'expanding on the run' in the past two years Changxin Technology goes public, officially entering the "Three Giants Era" of global DRAM competition The global storage industry has encountered the biggest variable in the past decade On July 27, domestic DRAM leader Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, with a market value exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan on the first day of listing. This is not only one of the most watched IPOs on the A-share market this year but also signifies that China's storage industry has officially entered the global capital market's spotlight, bringing a new competitor to the DRAM market long dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. In the past two years, the explosive demand for AI servers has driven continuous price increases for HBM and high-end DRAM, with Samsung and SK Hynix almost monopolizing the global AI storage dividends thanks to their technological advantages. Just before Changxin's listing, Anthropic signed storage supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix respectively, and Nvidia also increased investment in the Korean AI ecosystem. The market once believed that the global AI storage industry chain would further concentrate in Korea. However, Changxin's listing means this pattern is beginning to change. For global customers, DRAM supply now has a third, more sizable option for the first time; for the industry chain, Chinese manufacturers, supported by the capital market, will further enhance R&D investment and production capacity expansion, with prospects to continuously increase their share in consumer, server, and industrial DRAM markets. In the long term, the competitive logic of the global storage industry will evolve from the previous "duopoly game" to a "three-giant competition." The capital market has already started to price this in. The Korean KOSPI index surged and then retreated that day, reflecting investors' reassessment of future profit distribution in the global storage industry. As Chinese production capacity continues to be released, DRAM price cycles, capital expenditures of major manufacturers, and HBM supply-demand balance will become core variables determining the next industry boom. Storage demand driven by the AI era continues to grow, but the biggest future change may no longer be who has the most orders, but who can control the discourse power of the next round of the global storage industry. $BTC $ETH $KAITO #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 It looks like $ONDO has one very interesting seller. A multisig 0xb7B wallet linked to Ondo Finance sent 4.014M $ONDO worth about $1.62M to Coinbase today. But the most interesting thing happened earlier. Just 3 hours earlier, the wallet received 22.5M $ONDO from 0xEA5. This address regularly transfers tokens to wallets associated with Ondo, and the 0xEA5 itself is also owned by Ondo Finance and has been used to sell tokens on Coinbase. The size of each deposit to the exchange is usually around 4M $ONDO The pattern is too stable. It's almost as if it's pre-programmed. Now the question is: how much more $ONDO left for such sales? This $BTC rally will eventually fail like all others in this bear market. Because it has the same structural flaw as every one before it. Spot volume has fallen to a new cycle low while perp volume continues to mirror price higher. This is now the third consecutive bear market rally where the same divergence has developed. Each completed example was followed by a 15–30% flush within weeks. The mechanism is simple. Once perpetual positioning begins to unwind, there is not enough spot demand underneath the structure to absorb the cascade. Whether BTC tops at $67K or squeezes into $70K first changes very little. As long as this divergence remains, the rally is still missing the spot demand needed to survive the unwind.Day 10 of breakeven | Currently 115u 1. In the afternoon, I couldn't control my trade, so I opened a long order for Bitcoin $BTC, with an entry point of 65,300. Originally planned to take profits at 500 points, but the market continued to decline, so a 1:1 increase was made at 64,800, correcting the average position price to 65,100. I held my position from 3 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. The long sideways decline didn't shake my mindset. After patiently waiting, I saw a rally, successfully reached the take-profit level, and pocketed 5 U. This is also the longest position I've held, and I can clearly feel my mindset has improved. I no longer feel anxious about short-term declines, and can calmly assess the situation and implement response plans. This is considered a recent good harvest, officially entering a rhythm of sustained profitability. 2. Let's talk about the recent market plunge behind the Federal Reserve's #Changxin Technology Listing, Global Storage Competition Adds Variables Expectations Logic. Yixiu has compiled relevant information: Oil prices continue to rise, reigniting inflation concerns, and the probability of a Fed rate hike this week has surged from about 10% last week to over 30%. Since Walsh took office, the Fed has chosen to streamline its external statements and reduce policy hints, prompting the market to shift from relying on officials' forward-looking speeches to closely following various economic data for judgment. Subsequent data fluctuations will cause more frequent market volatility and requires close attention.Anyone who has lost hope in coins today should read this story! In the cryptocurrency market, sometimes to understand the future, we need to temporarily set aside our attachment to the future and instead look back at the past. Because the psychological state we are experiencing today is something we have experienced before. Bitcoin rebounded from the $4,000 level and climbed all the way to $41,000. That's almost a tenfold increase...... So what about altcoins? The large-scale altcoin bull market people dreamed of never materialized. Bitcoin is rising, while most altcoins are stagnant. People started saying the same thing again: The era of altcoins is over. Nothing rose except #Bitcoin. These coins are out of the question. Then Bitcoin plunged from the $41,000 level to $29,000. The real psychological warfare begins from that point. Altcoins that barely moved during Bitcoin's rise were completely crushed when Bitcoin fell. People have lost confidence in coins that have been held for several months. Many people gave up completely during that period. Sold it. Exit the market. Swearing never to touch cryptocurrency again. And do you know what happened afterward? Bitcoin has regained from the $29,000 area. First, $40,000...... Then $50,000...... It then broke through $60,000 and reached the $65,000 level. What the market has long awaited has finally happened. The altcoins woke up. Coins that had been stagnant for months began to show unimaginable gains within weeks. A tenfold increase is not even worth mentioning. 50 times ...... 100x ...... 1000 times ...... Some projects have even seen gains of 200 or 1200 times, flying everywhere. Those who were just a few months ago asking "Why aren't altcoins rising?" This time, people began to ask: Is this coin still available for purchase now? Do you know what's most absurd and laughable about this? Those coins that no one wanted at the bottom, after they rose 10 or 20 times, people trampled on each other to buy them. Because the market has changed. But in fact, what has changed is not the market. It's people's psychology. At the bottom is fear. When it rises, it's greed. And today, we are once again in a period when people's patience is running out. Bitcoin is in ...... Altcoins have not shown the expected performance. People don't want to open their portfolios. Confidence in altcoins on social media is weakening day by day. I heard the same sentence again: The altcoin bull market will never return. This market is not what it used to be. Altcoins are dead. I've heard these things before. And it was on the eve of the major altcoin bull market...... Of course, what happened in the past does not guarantee that it will repeat exactly. But the market has an unchanging habit in human psychology: It prefers to distribute large sums of wealth only after most people's patience has run out. So today, I'm not just looking at the price. I also see how tired people are. Because sometimes, you can sense a bull's approach from people's despair earlier than from charts. Today, probably everyone hates altcoins. Today, when you look at your portfolio, it feels like nothing will happen. But don't forget...... Before those 200-fold or 800-fold gains started to be widely discussed, no one could laugh about it. Then the market suddenly changed. Those who waited months changed their lives within weeks. In the cryptocurrency space, wealth is sometimes not built during price increases, but on days when no one believes it will rise. I'm still here. A little more patience. Because in my view, we haven't seen the real drama yet. ⏳ I wrote this post, and the same people will say the same thing again...... 🤫昨晚做了一个梦，梦见币涨了，醒来一看真的涨了但不是因为反弹而是因为一条政策消息头部所的代币化证券业务今天开始实施下架标准这个事儿说实话我之前一直没太当回事觉得就是平台调整产品线但仔细研究了一下发现不是那么简单的这种代币化证券的本质就是把传统股票搬到链上这个方向本身是RWA赛道的前沿但合规问题一直没有解决现在下架标准出来了意味着监管在收紧不是在打压而是在告诉行业什么是可以做的什么是不可以做的然后你猜怎么着资本市场的反应很有意思传统金融觉得这是加密向监管靠近的方向加密圈觉得这是代币化证券在走向合规两边都觉得是好事我反而觉得这恰恰说明RWA赛道正在从野蛮生长走向规范化长期来看这是必不可少的阵痛所以我的判断是这种下架不是终点是RWA赛道走向合规的必经之路短期可能有波动但中长期是利好说回大盘之外的热点，今天这几个事儿有点意思： #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 4700亿的月交易量已经说明RWA不是概念了是真实存在的大规模市场这种下架标准本质上是监管在跟上市场的节奏方向是对的只是过程有点颠簸而已 #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零这 Meta Q2 Earnings Preview: Advertising Growth and $125 Billion Capital Expenditure Must Be Viewed Together Meta has confirmed it will release its Q2 2026 results after the U.S. market close on July 29, with the earnings call scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific Time. Since the results have not yet been published, we will first establish a baseline using the official Q1 figures to avoid mistaking market forecasts or management guidance for facts. Q1 total revenue was $56.311 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase; operating income was $22.872 billion, with an operating margin of 41%. Family of Apps ad impressions grew 19%, and average ad prices rose 12%. The simultaneous increase of these two drivers explains the strength in advertising revenue. The first thing to verify in Q2 is whether both metrics can continue to grow together or if one starts to slow down. On the other hand, there is spending. Q1 capital expenditures, including finance lease principal, were $19.84 billion. Meta raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance from $115 billion–$135 billion to $125 billion–$145 billion, citing component prices and future data center capacity. This is company guidance, not actual full-year spending. After the earnings release, cash flow statements, capital expenditures, and depreciation trends should be analyzed to determine if AI infrastructure investments are beginning to compress free cash flow and operating margins. Meta’s previous quarter guidance for Q2 projected revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, assuming about a two-percentage-point tailwind from exchange rates. Once the official results are out, besides comparing ranges, the impact of exchange rates should be excluded to observe the true changes in ad impressions and pricing. Looking only at nominal revenue can easily overestimate core growth. My analysis sequence is: first examine ad volume and price, then Family of Apps profitability, and finally capital expenditures and free cash flow. If advertising remains strong and margins stay stable, increased AI spending is easier to absorb within the core business; if revenue slows and spending is revised upward again, the market will demand a higher return cycle. Before the official announcement, do not speculate on results or equate "increased AI investment" directly with "AI has already generated equivalent revenue." Also, avoid a common mistake: directly adding ad impression growth and price growth as advertising revenue growth. Both are influenced by region, placement, product mix, and exchange rates, so simple addition is invalid. After official tables are released, rely on company-disclosed ad revenue and use impressions and pricing as explanatory drivers. Meta also reminds that it still faces legal and regulatory issues in Europe and the U.S. Such risks should not be exaggerated into realized losses in popular reports without new formal disclosures; if the 10-Q update or earnings call provides specific amounts, address them separately. My principle is to separate financial figures, operational metrics, management guidance, and risk factors into four layers to avoid mixing different types of information under an optimistic or pessimistic headline. After results are out, I will also verify the 10-Q to avoid missing important notes in press release summaries.This morning, when I opened the exchange, I almost smashed my phone—not because the coins I bought dropped, but because I saw a news article: SK Hynix's second-quarter performance is expected to hit a record high. You read that right—a record high. With explosive demand for AI chips, memory manufacturers are entering a super cycle. I used to think storage was a cyclical industry—two years up and three years off. But this time it's different. AI training requires HBM, and only SK Hynix and Samsung can do it. That's a technical barrier, not a capacity cycle This afternoon, there was another interesting piece of data: Changxin Technology saw a trading volume of 130 billion yuan after listing. Korean retail investors are frantically shorting, while Chinese and American funds are bullish. What does this indicate? It means a global bull-short battle is happening in the storage sector. It's not a valuation game, but an industry-level re-pricing. And guess what? Bernstein even raised Naver's target price by 58% today, saying the AI factory strategy has given the market huge confidence. Korea's AI industry chain, from storage to search to chips, is being repriced. So my judgment is this The performance realization in the AI hardware sector is just beginning. Storage is the first wave, chips the second, and the entire industry chain will benefit. Also, let's take a look at what everyone has been discussing recently: #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables. Changxin traded 130 billion yuan on its first day, with a turnover of 61%, ranking 31st globally in assets. China, South Korea, and the US funds are bullish and short, with completely different directions. This split itself is the best way to prove who's right and who's wrong 我心态崩了真的崩了彻底崩了不是因为亏钱而是因为我已经看不懂这个世界了今天下午伊朗说没有恢复谈判调解人通道而已然后霍尔木兹海峡还是关着的油价跌了2%又拉回来消息面一天三变我真的累家人们你们有没有这种感觉就是明明什么都没做但光是盯着新闻就已经精疲力尽了早上还在说谈判有望下午就说没恢复我都不知道该信谁了然后你猜怎么着 BTC呢 BTC在65K纹丝不动就是不动不受油价涨跌影响不受地缘影响就像一个吃了秤砣的人你说地缘风险大吧 BTC不跌你说地缘风险解除了吧它不涨它就在那儿 65K 稳如一条老狗这种时候我反而觉得踏实说明BTC已经脱离了三年前那种恐慌性抛售的阶段变成了真正的避险资产不是不会跌是不会因为一条新闻就崩所以我的判断是地缘问题短期无解但BTC的底层逻辑已经变了与其焦虑不如多看基本面正好今天还有几个热点值得一说： #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议这周的主角毫无疑问是美联储利率决议非农后的第一次会议市场普遍预期不动关键是鲍威尔怎么看通胀和就业如果措辞偏鸽BTC有希望冲前高区域这个位置多空都在等一个方向 #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌油价跌了但霍尔木兹没通伊朗也说没谈判这个暂停更像是战术调整不是战略转折对加密市场来说地缘不再是核心变量了ETF资金流才是真正的主导力量现在看基本面比看新闻更靠谱 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 CLARITY新草案刚发布带道德条款就被浇冷水了但这个草案本身已经是一个巨大的进步监管从有没有转向了好不好的问题方向对了只是时间问题慢一点比走歪了好 #地缘 #美联储 #CLARITY

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