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Tonight, the overall risk-averse atmosphere in U.S. stocks was very strong. The storage sector and AI computing chips were all heavily sold off by capital. SanDisk, Micron, and Nvidia all fell consecutively, with the Nasdaq index under pressure throughout. Only Apple's stock price bucked the trend and climbed steadily, hitting an intraday record. Its total market value smoothly broke through $5 trillion, once again overtaking Nvidia and firmly holding the top spot in the world's market capitalization. There are four main reasons for emerging from this polarized rally. 1. The capital flow has completely shifted, refusing to chase AI hardware companies that burn heavily in cash In the first half of the year, funds poured into chip makers like Nvidia, betting on the dividends brought by AI computing power expansion. Now, investors are gradually waking up: constantly spending money to build hardware infrastructure cannot quickly earn stable returns, and corporate debt burdens continue to grow. Additionally, news that NVIDIA will provide a huge guarantee to OpenAI has heightened market concerns, with funds selling off chip stocks. Apple's pace of AI deployment is conservative; it does not need to spend heavily to build large computing clusters; it only rents computing power as needed to adapt smartphone smart functions. R&D expenses are controllable, with no huge losses, and with massive cash flow, it naturally attracts capital. Previously, many complained that Apple's AI R&D progress was too slow, but now it has become its biggest advantage against market fluctuations. 2. Fed Rate Meeting Approaches, Funds Group Together with Quality Blue Chips Hedging All Traders Are Awaiting the Implementation of Interest Rate Policies in the Early Morning Period. If the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, overvalued growth stocks...LATEST: CZ has backed crypto license passporting across ASEAN, saying firms licensed in one market should face a lighter approval process when entering another.
$BTC At 2 a.m. tomorrow, the Fed will announce its decision. The market expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. But the real impact isn't the frequent changes, but Walsh's tone and his firm tone. $BTC $ETH Why is the crypto world so concerned about this? BTC is built on liquidity. If rates don't loosen, money rises. When money rises, risk assets lose appeal. If the dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields rise, BTC gets suppressed. Conversely, as long as the tone softens a little, the market can catch its breath and bounce back Right now, BTC is fluctuating between 63,000 and 65,000, clearly awaiting the outcome. Here are three possible scenarios for you in advance: First, interest rates remain unchanged, with a mild tone, so there's a high chance of a small rebound. Try pushing to 66,000 to 68,000, and knockoffs will be happy too. Second: interest rates won't change, but Wash's stubbornness emphasizes inflation risks, hinting that rates can still be raised in September. BTC should first look for support at 62,000 or 64,000. Whether it can hold and see how the market digests it. Third, a real rate hike is happening. The probability is low, but don't take it lightly. If it really happens, the short-term outlook will be bad Anything below 60,000 could be touched. No matter the outcome, the fluctuations in the hours after the decision will definitely be amplified. High-leverage brothers, weigh your options—don't wait until you get a shot to regret not cutting back. Short-term focus on 2 a.m. on the 30th. For the long term, one meeting can't turn the tide, but emotions can make you sick. #KoreaStocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on first day. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX Masterclass starts tonight, I'll show you📊 Grayscale data highlights strong momentum for $HYPE ETFs.
At a similar market-cap stage, $HYPE ETF inflows are reportedly outpacing the early demand seen in $BTC , $ETH , $SOL, and $XRP. 🚀
Institutional interest continues to grow as investors look beyond the largest crypto assets and explore emerging opportunities.
The key question: can $HYPE maintain this momentum as the market evolves? 👀
#CXMTDebutShockwave #NvidiaBacksOpenAI OKB's prospects are no longer simply about "how much it can rise," but about "whether it can prove itself after a complete transformation." $OKB
The biggest change: the "Bitcoin-style" transformation in August 2025
The biggest event will happen in August 2025. OKX burned about 65 million OKB at once, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million, just like Bitcoin's scarcity design. At the same time, OKB officially became the exclusive gas token of OKX's self-built public chain—X Layer. This marked OKB's transformation from "exchange points" to "public chain native assets." On the day the news broke, the price surged over 160%, surging from around $45 to nearly $135. Current value logic: shifting from "event-driven" to "eco-driven"
Previously, OKB's value was propped up by events like buybacks and burns, launchpads, and so on—it rose quickly and crashed just as fast. The current imaginative space is:
· On-chain hard requirements: Every transfer and smart contract interaction on X Layer consumes OKB as gas fees.
· Governance rights: Staking OKB allows participation in X Layer governance voting.
· Ecosystem incentives: OKX has established an ecosystem fund to attract projects to join X Layer.
In theory, "the more people use X Layer, the greater the demand for OKB."
The biggest "thunderbolts": the boots of the IPO and the embarrassment of OKB
OKX is considering a US IPO and has already invested heavily in compliance: its legal and compliance teams have expanded to nearly 600 people. However, the biggest regulatory pitfall for exchanges wanting to list on the US stock market is whether the platform token is a security. When the SEC previously sued Binance, it explicitly referred to BNB as a security. So OKX's plan might be to package OKB from an "exchange-issued utility token" into a "gas token on the public chain," downplaying its binding relationship with OKX. But this contradicts the expectation that "a successful IPO will significantly boost OKB." Some analysts bluntly say: OKB may rise during its IPO, but after listing, OKX will most likely publicly sever ties with OKB and allow it to enter a free trading state. This awkward "having it both ways" is the biggest uncertainty in OKB's prospects. In short: long-term value depends on X Layer; short-term trends depend on news. OKB's economic model has become harder, and scarcity has been locked in. If X Layer really gets up to speed, its long-term value is solid. However, the compliance game surrounding IPOs will make its short-term trend full of uncertainty. Relying on information to drive prices is fine, but real demand supporting prices is the biggest test going forward.OKB's prospects are no longer simply about "how much it can rise," but about "whether it can prove itself after a complete transformation." $OKB
The biggest change: the "Bitcoin-style" transformation in August 2025
The biggest event will happen in August 2025. OKX burned about 65 million OKB at once, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million, just like Bitcoin's scarcity design. At the same time, OKB officially became the exclusive gas token of OKX's self-built public chain—X Layer. This marked OKB's transformation from "exchange points" to "public chain native assets." On the day the news broke, the price surged over 160%, surging from around $45 to nearly $135. Current value logic: shifting from "event-driven" to "eco-driven"
Previously, OKB's value was propped up by events like buybacks and burns, launchpads, and so on—it rose quickly and crashed just as fast. The current imaginative space is:
· On-chain hard requirements: Every transfer and smart contract interaction on X Layer consumes OKB as gas fees.
· Governance rights: Staking OKB allows participation in X Layer governance voting.
· Ecosystem incentives: OKX has established an ecosystem fund to attract projects to join X Layer.
In theory, "the more people use X Layer, the greater the demand for OKB."
The biggest "thunderbolts": the boots of the IPO and the embarrassment of OKB
OKX is considering a US IPO and has already invested heavily in compliance: its legal and compliance teams have expanded to nearly 600 people. However, the biggest regulatory pitfall for exchanges wanting to list on the US stock market is whether the platform token is a security. When the SEC previously sued Binance, it explicitly referred to BNB as a security. So OKX's plan might be to package OKB from an "exchange-issued utility token" into a "gas token on the public chain," downplaying its binding relationship with OKX. But this contradicts the expectation that "a successful IPO will significantly boost OKB." Some analysts bluntly say: OKB may rise during its IPO, but after listing, OKX will most likely publicly sever ties with OKB and allow it to enter a free trading state. This awkward "having it both ways" is the biggest uncertainty in OKB's prospects. In short: long-term value depends on X Layer; short-term trends depend on news. OKB's economic model has become harder, and scarcity has been locked in. If X Layer really gets up to speed, its long-term value is solid. However, the compliance game surrounding IPOs will make its short-term trend full of uncertainty. Relying on information to drive prices is fine, but real demand supporting prices is the biggest test going forward.And it was released on August 7th, just the day after the unlock date. This is definitely a market support move. Whether he can actually support it or not is unknown, but the fact that the project team is taking action and conveying this information is very important. Also, after the Starship 13 launch, he has already started warming up for 14, and this time the highlight will be the tower recovery.
He is very likely to release positive news repeatedly based on milestones to push up the stock price. Musk is an expert at market cap management both in the crypto and stock worlds. He even personally orchestrated the step-by-step asset packaging to facilitate SpaceX's IPO $SPCX 📰 Trump just extended an olive branch and threatens to blow up the strait! BTC $63,262 is hanging by the bucket
Event overview
On July 28, Trump sent the most contradictory diplomatic signal of this round of conflict: on one hand, he said, "Now is a good time to reach an agreement with Iran," hoping not to strike at Iran's bridges and power plants; On one hand, the tone shifted: if negotiations fail, the U.S. could "very easily destroy the Strait of Hormuz," allowing only ships that nodded to pass through. He added another blow—Iran must formally declare that it does not possess nuclear weapons, or else nothing can be discussed.
To put it bluntly, handing a cigarette with one hand and drawing a knife with the other, the market was stunned.
In-depth analysis
Why is this news important?
Folks, the key issue isn't whether to talk or not, but that Trump has slapped the Strait of Hormuz card right on the table.
About 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global maritime crude oil shipments. Trump said "it can be easily destroyed," which is pushing extreme pressure to a new level. Essentially, the U.S. does not want to actually attack Iran but needs to adopt a "ready to act at any time" stance to force Tehran to sit down and sign the agreement.
The problem is, while this kind of rhetoric may work for traditional diplomacy, for the crypto market it's like throwing a lit cigarette into the powder keg of uncertainty.
Currently, BTC has fallen to $63,262.55, down 3.03% in 24 hours. ETH was even harder, at $1,878.83, down 4.15%. Geopolitical tensions combined with ambiguous signals made risk assets the first to be dumped.
Unlike previous Middle East escalations, this time the signal is extremely contradictory. What the market fears most is not bad news, but incomprehensible news. Do you want to negotiate or fight? This Schrödinger-style diplomatic attitude drains market confidence more than any clear negative news.
Impact on the market
In the short term, Trump's remarks directly suppress risk appetite, and the impact chain is clear:
Layer 1: Strait of Hormuz threatens → expectations of soaring oil prices→ rising inflation expectations→ delayed Fed rate cut expectations→ putting pressure on BTC and ETH. This logical chain is the most direct destructive.
Layer Two: Geopolitical Uncertainty Should Have Benefited Safe-Haven Assets, But BTC's Safe-Haven Narrative Has Lost Its Effectiveness. Funds will first flow into gold and US Treasuries, while the crypto market will instead become a victim of liquidity drainage.
Third layer: If the negotiation table really comes to the forefront, that would be the turning point for the negative side to clear the market. But at this stage, ambiguous signals will continue to ferment, and sentiment will only worsen.
Referring to the 2019 wave of extreme pressure on Iran by Trump, BTC fluctuated by about 8-10% in a short period. This crypto market is already in a weak range; if the $63,262 level can't hold, the $60,000 integer level is almost inevitable.
Honestly, ETH is even more worrying. $1,878 has already fallen below the key psychological level of $1,900. If BTC continues to fall, ETH is very likely to lose to the broader market.
Operational Approach
🎯 Influence prediction
- Currency: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉, predicted decline
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
💡 My judgment is straightforward: now is not the time for heroes to bottom-fish. Trump's contradictory signals mean that uncertainty will only increase, not dissipate. BTC should keep a close eye on the $63,262 level. Once it effectively breaks below it, don't grab a quick knife. Wait until around $60,000 to see if there are signs of stabilization. ETH has already broken down; just wait and see. There are two real signals to enter: either there will be substantial progress in negotiations, or the panic index will drop to the extreme fear zone.
If you think your analysis is spot on, share it with your crypto community group so more people can avoid pitfalls
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice; the forecast is for reference onlyLast night, the volatility in US stocks was indeed quite volatile, with significant declines in both the storage and semiconductor supply chains. Attributes it to two main drivers: one is Changxin's listing, and the other is progress in DUV mass production. Changxin's global market listing is actually already prepared. People have already considered that Changxin's capital expenditures will increase, but due to equipment limitations, there is little concern. However, yesterday's news of progress in DUV mass production triggered market volatility, with breakthroughs beginning to appear in the most difficult areas. Foreign investors have started pricing in future expansions, which may exceed expectations. So we saw fluctuations yesterday in US storage, semiconductor equipment, and wafer fab, reflecting this event. Of course, there is still a long way to go from small-scale mass production to stable mass production, but as soon as scarcity is weakened, the market will begin to set prices. Another issue is Nvidia's decline, which seems to be a bit of market discussion, so I need to touch on it briefly here. Although Nvidia hasn't risen for a while, it has remained sideways, and market expectations for it haven't changed much. Yesterday, something quite important happened: it began providing financing guarantees for OpenAI. We also took a closer look at this matter. Nvidia is discussing about leasing a 10GW data center project built by SoftBank's energy subsidiary in Ohio, providing about $250 billion in financing guarantees. The report also states that Nvidia is discussing financing up to about $350 billion for OpenAI's chip procurement. This is not the first time NVIDIA has provided leasing guarantees for ecosystem partners, according to the deadline🚨 Everyone is focused on AI chips—but the next battleground could be memory.
China just made a major statement.
CXMT (ChangXin Memory) debuted on the STAR Market with a reported ¥3.31 trillion valuation, making it the largest listed company in China's A-share market. 🔥
The global memory industry is no longer just a story about Samsung and SK Hynix.
In recent weeks, Anthropic secured memory supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix, while Nvidia continued expanding its AI partnerships across Korea.
Now, China has officially entered the spotlight with a publicly traded memory heavyweight.
Markets noticed.
The KOSPI jumped more than 1.7% at the open before giving back much of those gains, as investors weighed the implications of a potential third major force in the DRAM market. 📉
Going forward, two metrics deserve close attention:
📌 DRAM pricing trends
📌 CXMT's production capacity expansion
If supply grows faster than AI-driven demand, pricing power across the memory industry could come under pressure—including for today's market leaders.
The key question is:
Can AI demand support three global memory giants, or will increased competition lead to a pricing battle? 🤔
How are you positioning for this theme—Korean semiconductor stocks, AI leaders, or China's domestic chip sector?
#CXMTDebutShockwave #DailyOrbit #FOMCRateWatch Tonight, US stocks showed a deep V pattern, plunging in the morning session and pulling back late in the session. The main and second Bitcoin markets generally move in line with US stocks, but their linkage momentum has weakened and the price fluctuations vary greatly, so they cannot be considered fully tied to the trend. 1. Major Trend: Consistent Direction, Nasdaq Declines and Crypto Circles Under Pressure 1. First Half of US Opening: Storage Chips and Nvidia Collectively Dump, Nasdaq Continues to Decline Market Fears the Federal Reserve Will Keep High Interest Rates Will Cause Global Funds to Avoid High-Risk Assets. Bitcoin fell back below $64,000, Ethereum plunged simultaneously, and a large number of long positions were liquidated across the network, perfectly matching the panic downturn in US stocks. 2. Funds flowed back into the US stock market at the close, losses narrowed sharply. The market expects the Fed will not raise rates, US Treasury yields have fallen, and tech stocks have started a recovery rebound. Bitcoin and Ethereum have also gradually stopped falling and rebounded slightly, no longer hitting new lows at the bottom, and the overall direction continues to follow U.S. risk sentiment. Both are essentially dollar-denominated risk speculative assets; when liquidity tightens or easing expectations align, the rise and fall inevitably move in the same direction. 2. Obvious Decoupling Details: Huge Volatility Gap, Crypto Sector Less Voluptuous Than US Stocks 1. US stocks are a fierce battle between sectors, with volatility amplified exponentially. The storage sector plunged more than ten points in a single day due to Changxin's entry as a negative factor; Apple and Microsoft rose against the trend. Internal funds are constantly shifting and pulling, so the market has significant room for volatility. But this negative news exclusive to the storage industry does not translate directly to Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is not troubled by shrinking chip company profits and is not deeply dragged down by individual stock negative factors, so the price fluctuations have stabilized considerably. 2. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's decision,A small rebound yesterday turned around and today hit a big bearish candle—the market is selling off so hard!
But all of this is normal. That's what a bear market looks like. If you haven't experienced it, the old bear is here to show you.
The cruelty of a bear market is deeply impressed by veteran investors; they can keep selling until you no longer believe in life.
Today's large bearish candlestick marks the starting point, not the end, of a new round of sell-offs.
The main downward wave of the bear market, the end of wave A, is still far from here.
Today, GJD did put in some effort, probably spending about 30 billion on the market support, but it didn't hold it back. Without GJD to support the market, the damage would have been even worse.
GJD is a relief for emergencies, not for the poor; it aims to save liquidity and avoid the market experience of three consecutive days with a thousand stocks hitting the daily limit down, like in 2015.
Some say that when tech stocks fall, other sectors will experience a seesaw effect and rise in a rally, so you should buy traditional blue-chip stocks.
I'm not considering buying any sector for now, because in a bear market, no sector is a safe haven. You can avoid it for a while, but not forever. If you slap your hands randomly, one palm strikes and you're either injured or dead—don't play around!📌 2014: After the coin price fell below the green line, it bottomed out 124 days ago
📌 2018: After the coin price fell below the green line, it reached a bearish bottom for 188 days
📌 2022: After the coin price fell below the green line, it entered a bearish bottom for 193 days
📌 2026: After the price falls below the green line, it will drop to $57.8k in 146 days
┌── 🐼 Details of on-chain data ──┐
The green line in the chart represents LTH Spent Price (the price spent by long-term holders), which is the average purchase cost of $BTC sold by long-term holders (holding ≥155 days) on that day. It reflects the weighted average cost of buying the tokens spent (sold) by the batch of tokens
When the coin price falls below the LTH Spent Price and lasts for over 100 days until the bear bottom, it means long-term holders have entered a phase of continuous loss-making sell-off. This reflects the market entering a deep capitulation phase, with even strong players being cleaned out—a typical historical signal corresponding to the end of a bear market and the approaching cycle bottomEVERYONE IS PANICKING. I'M GETTING READY TO BUY.
Most people see a stock making lower lows.
I see a company moving through its largest supply event since the IPO.
Here's why.
Right now, only ~5% of SpaceX shares are freely trading.
That limited float helped fuel the rally to $225...
And it's one reason the stock has also faced heavy selling pressure.
Over the coming months, additional shares are expected to become eligible for trading:
→ Jul 24 — Flight 13 ✅
→ Aug 4 — Q2 Earnings
→ Aug 11 — First 20% Unlock
→ Aug–Oct — Five 7% Unlocks
→ Q3 Earnings — Additional 28% Unlock
→ Dec 8 — Final Lockup Expiration
That's a significant increase in potential supply.
More supply can create selling pressure if demand doesn't keep pace.
That's why I'm staying patient.
But here's what many investors overlook...
Once the lockup schedule is behind us, the market can shift its focus back to the business itself instead of upcoming share releases.
Starlink.
Launch leadership.
Starship.
Some investors see uncertainty.
I see a period worth watching closely.
If I decide to start buying $SPCX, I'll share it here.
Turn notifications on.This round, I adjusted my shorting target, switching from shorting $ETH to shorting $BTC.
The original strategy was to stake ETH into WBETH as collateral, and the perpetual contract would short an equivalent amount of ETH. The advantages are clear:
1. The effect is equivalent to selling spot ETH, with almost no leverage and no risk of forced liquidation;
2. No loss of ETH staking interest and continuous charge of long funding fees;
3. Only a small amount of ETH is deposited on exchanges as collateral, greatly reducing the risk of platform theft or absconding.
The new strategy still uses WBETH as margin to short BTC equivalent to the exchange rate.
The logic is: MicroStrategy is very likely to pause BTC holdings in the long term, Bitmine continues to buy ETH, and with the RWA sector advancing, this bear market is likely to repeat the previous trend, with ETH and BTC hitting bottom in sync.
In the 2022 bear market, ETH's low was on June 18 ($882, ETH/BTC exchange rate 0.05), and the BTC low was on November 21 ($15,476, exchange rate 0.0698); this ETH low likely already appeared on June 6, 2026, and BTC still has room to decline, so the market shifted to short BTC.🚨 SEMICONDUCTOR PANIC SPILLS INTO GLOBAL TECH — CRYPTO FOLLOWS LOWER
The semiconductor “domestic substitution” narrative is triggering a broad global tech risk-off move, with crypto largely following passively rather than suffering from a crypto-specific shock.
🔴 1. CHIP STOCKS LEAD THE RISK-OFF
Two catalysts are driving the semiconductor sell-off:
① China’s reported progress in immersion DUV lithography is intensifying fears around domestic substitution. Equipment names were hit hard:
ASML −8% AMAT −7.7% LRCX −8.5%
② Changxin Memory (CXMT) surged +466% on its Sci-Tech Innovation Board debut, reaching a reported ¥3.31T market cap and reinforcing the domestic substitution narrative.
The spillover is spreading across Asia:
🇰🇷 KOSPI −10% intraday SK Hynix −13% Samsung −12% 🇯🇵 Nikkei breaks 63,000, −3% 🇨🇳 Sci-Tech 50 −4% 🇭🇰 Hang Seng Tech reverses from gains to losses
KOSPI and KOSDAQ both triggered sidecars as algorithmic selling intensified.
Crypto is down roughly 3% — significantly less than the 8–17% declines across major semiconductor names.
This looks more like global tech risk-off spilling into crypto than a crypto-native crash.
📉 2. MEMORY STOCKS ARE GETTING HIT HARD
SNDK −17.2% SK Hynix ADR −13.9% Hynix Korea −10.7% DRAM −9.8% MRVL −8.9% MU −8.5% INTC −6.2%
The MU / SNDK / Hynix trio collapsing together points to a broader sector-wide valuation reset rather than an isolated company-specific event.
⚠️ Don’t rush to catch the falling knife. Wait for stabilization.
Meanwhile, QQQ is down only around 2.3%, while GOOGL remains green, suggesting capital is rotating rather than the entire equity market entering a full-scale crash.
MSTR is also holding up, showing relative resilience despite the broader tech sell-off.
📊 3. BTC TECHNICAL STRUCTURE IS WEAKENING
BTC: $63,190 24H: −3.1%
The daily chart is flashing its first major death-cross signal of this move.
BTC is now below the EMA50 and MA100/200, while MACD has crossed bearish above the zero line and momentum is fading.
Key levels:
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch
$BTC $ETH Why did US tech stocks first panic and fall on the same day, only to be forcibly pulled back to recover the losses in the latter half? 1. Four Core Drivers of the Wild Decline in the First Half 1. Domestic storage entered the market, completely shattering expectations of overseas storage monopolies, causing the storage sector to collapse first. Changxin's mass production breakthrough, and memory and hard drives can no longer be arbitrarily controlled and raised by the US and South Korea. Funds immediately became pessimistic about the profit potential of SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix, and collectively sold off at the open. SanDisk's intraday stock plunged over 15%, with SK Hynix falling below its IPO price, causing the entire storage sector to collapse. 2. Nvidia faces major negative news, AI computing power sector collectively sold off. Rumors suggest Nvidia will provide OpenAI with a massive $250 billion guarantee, coupled with concerns about AI circular financing inflating the market. Investors fear that big players will endlessly burn cash and fail to recover profits. Nvidia plunged nearly 5% in a single day, while AMD and ASML chip equipment stocks also plunged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging more than 4% intraday. 3. On the eve of the Fed's rate meeting, the market is extremely panicked, everyone fears rate hikes. The July rate decision is scheduled to be announced that night, and the market is betting on a rate hike probability that has risen to 36%. People worry that if high interest rates persist, the valuations of high-priced tech stocks will keep shrinking, so they are selling growth stocks to hedge risk, with funds flocking to Apple and traditional blue chips to avoid risks, according to Sina Finance. 4. AI chip prices surged too much earlier, leading to concentrated cash-out and trampling at high profits. In the first half of the year, computing power and storage stock prices doubled and soared, accumulating massive profit-making chips. As soon as the negative news came out, everyone...Looking at the timing of historical cycles bottoming out, $ETH generally bottomed out earlier than $BTC. We can clearly analyze the data from the three bear markets:
1. 2017-2018 Bear Market: ETH and BTC basically bottomed out in sync, with very little time difference
2. 2021-2022 Bear Market: ETH low appeared on June 18, 2022, BTC hit low on November 9, 2022, ETH was 144 days ahead
3. This round of the 2026 bear market: As of July 28, ETH's lowest closing in this round was June 6, BTC's lowest closing was June 30, with ETH leading only 24 days, moving closer to synchronization
At the same time, the low point of the ETH/BTC exchange rate coincided with the low point of ETH's price, further confirming this pattern.
Additionally, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been declining continuously from 2021 to 2025, with a cumulative drop of nearly 75%. The long-term weakness has eroded market confidence. However, as institutions deploy in the smart contract sector, RWA is implemented, and the staking ecosystem matures, as long as the overall market bottoms out, ETH's valuation recovery space still exists. Whether ETH can regain market trust will depend on ecosystem implementation and the pace of regulatory policy advancement.
The above is only a review of historical data and does not constitute investment advice.Brothers, let's analyze ZEC: intraday high 491.87U, intraday low 456.2U, current price 472.2U, 24-hour decline 6.5%; The weekly cumulative decline was 13.2%. In the short term, a rebound in US tech stocks may drive a small rebound in short profits, but the long-term trend remains bearish. ZEC saw 300 whales transfer 74,002 ZEC (equivalent to 35.75 million USD) into leading exchanges in a single day. Privacy shielding pool funds continue to be unlocked and transferred out, with major players cashing out profit-taking positions at high levels with thousandfold annual gains, and circulating selling pressure continues to be released. In the 490-520 range, a large amount of spot and contract long positions accumulated, and the continuous decline triggered stop-loss liquidations. The total 24-hour long liquidation reached 41 million USD. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, market risk aversion surged, with BTC and ETH both plunging more than 3%. Over 160,000 liquidations in the market within 24 hours led to collective withdrawals from highly volatile niche currencies; Funds in the privacy sector have been widely switched to the FHE-compliant new ZAMA, while traditional privacy coins have suffered widespread losses, with no incremental buying to support the sector. The ZEC Ironwood mainnet upgrade originally scheduled for July 21 was postponed to July 28, when the block was highly activated. The market speculated on the upgrade narrative a week in advance, and after the positive news materialized, short-term speculative funds all exited and realized profits. The EU's latest crypto regulatory document explicitly restricts fully anonymous private transactions, requiring platforms to strengthen KYC risk controls on privacy tokens. The market is concerned that major ZEC exchanges are reducing trading pairs and restricting spot/contract liquidity, allowing funds to avoid regulatory risks in advance$BEAT
The current price is around 3, with a 24-hour low of 2.48 and a high of 4.68, showing extremely volatile fluctuations. Trading volume has also increased significantly, nearing $70 million in 24 hours.
The contract side is even more obvious.
Open Interest (OI) is currently around $32 million, down more than 30% in 24 hours. When the price previously crashed, OI also dropped significantly, indicating a large number of positions have been liquidated.
Funding rates are still negative, with Binance around -0.02% and OKX about -0.03%.
So the recent trend looks like repeated wash trading.
Earlier, the price rose above 4, attracting many long positions, then suddenly dropped to around 2.5, liquidating a batch of longs.
After such a big drop, some started shorting, funding rates turned negative, then the price was pulled back from the low, causing shorts to be squeezed.
This back-and-forth between longs and shorts has basically been the pattern in recent days.
Another important point is that about 21.25 million BEAT tokens will unlock on August 1, which is a considerable amount.
So the recent large volatility might be related to turnover before the unlock.
The market already knows about the August 1 unlock, so this negative factor is likely being traded in advance. On the actual day, it might not necessarily crash directly.
Right now, I mainly watch OI.
If the price continues to hover around 2.8 to 3 and OI starts to increase significantly while funding rates remain very negative, be cautious of a pump-and-dump targeting shorts.
If the price breaks below 2.8 and OI increases significantly, that’s bearish, indicating new shorts are entering.
2.48 is the previous low; if this level breaks again, the market outlook will be quite bleak.
On the upside, watch 3.0 first, then 3.3 to 3.5.
I’m still bearish for now, but shorting this coin carries high risk.
The most important indicators for BEAT these days are how price and OI move together.
Price down and OI down often means positions are being closed or liquidated.
Price up and OI down could mean shorts are covering.
Price up and OI up means longs are re-entering.
Price down and OI up is more like new shorts starting to push down.
The August 1 unlock is already known, so the main question is how the market will trade this in advance over the next few days.Just patiently wait for Bitcoin and $BTC to complete the bottom formation.
Recently, I reviewed news related to the CLARITY Act. The probability of its implementation in August is basically slim, and the market generally expects progress to be in November. This timing perfectly matches my previous prediction of a bottoming out in October.
Looking back at the monthly chart structure, the candlestick patterns of this bear market and the previous bear market share many similarities. Purely from a technical perspective, the bottoming period ranges from as short as 3 months to as long as 5 months.
While US stocks have been falling sharply recently, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, indicating that previous chips have undergone thorough shakeout, retail investors' floating funds have been thoroughly cleared, and Bitcoin has basically entered the latter half of the bear market.
After enduring for so long, we're finally about to hit the bottom range.After two full hours of trading, the tech sector was completely split into two camps: one plummeted, the other steadily rising. Let's start with the sector that lost money and fell the most, which was also the sector with the fiercest sell-off tonight: storage, memory, hard drives, and AI computing hardware were all dumped by capital and forced to flee. SanDisk plunged over 23% over two days, with the largest drop in the first two hours reaching 14 points, the largest decline in the entire market. Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate all declined in tandem, while South Korea's SK Hynix fell below its issue price shortly after going public, hitting its lowest price since listing. Nvidia fell nearly 5% intraday, AMD and ASML lithography machine leaders both fell more than 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.23%, according to Cailian News. Tesla and SpaceX followed suit, falling by around 1%, with Musk's assets weakening throughout. The core driver of the decline was Changxin Technology's entry into the storage industry. The era of decades when the US and South Korea monopolized memory pricing for profits has ended, institutions have collectively lowered their earnings forecasts for storage companies, and funds are rushing to sell cyclical hardware stocks. Coupled with the Fed's interest rate decision about to be announced in the early morning, the market fears maintaining high rates, making high-valuation chip stocks the easiest to cash out and sell. On the other hand, a steady tech leader with steady gains and a tight hedge group throughout: Apple, up over 1%, once again overtook Nvidia in market value and reclaimed the top spot in global market cap. Microsoft rose nearly 2%, Google surged over 2.3%, and major software and consumer electronics companies with solid cash flow became safe havens for capital. 🚨HERE’S WHY THE WHOLE MARKET TANKED TODAY
Over $1.4 trillion got wiped out from global markets in just a few hours.
Equities sold off
Metals got hit
Crypto followed right behind
On the surface it looked like another random red day. It wasn’t.
This was a domino effect. It started in one place and spread everywhere.
Here’s what actually went down:
1. AI panic kicked it off
The most crowded trade on earth suddenly got questioned.
Reports came out that China hit a big breakthrough in domestic DUV lithography. That sparked fears the West’s long-term chip lead isn’t as safe as everyone thought.
At the same time, new AI funding headlines added more doubt.
Nvidia is reportedly talking about hundreds of billions in financing for OpenAI’s infrastructure.
And the 4 biggest AI players are set to spend ∼$700 billion on AI capex this year.
For months the question was "How big can AI get?"
Today it flipped to "Who’s actually paying for all of this?"
Once semis rolled over, everything else followed.
2. Then macro piled on
Fed decision is tomorrow — one of the biggest of the month. Traders didn’t want big risk into it.
Rate hike odds also got repriced way higher vs last week.
That sent the U.S. dollar up and crushed risk assets.
A stronger dollar also hit metals hard. Gold fell, silver dropped more, platinum and palladium got smacked too.
It was a full risk-off move.
3. Crypto got an extra punch
The Senate pushed the CLARITY Act further back to focus on Russia sanctions and other bills.
That’s not why the whole world sold off, but it’s why crypto bled even harder.
4. One more quiet trigger
USD/JPY ran back toward 164. Now everyone’s watching for Japan to intervene in FX again.
Japan’s already stepped in multiple times this year. When the yen gets to these levels, global carry trades and positioning get nervous fast.
Any one of these alone doesn’t erase $1.4 trillion. All of them together? It does.
That’s why today’s dump makes sense when you connect the dots.
I post news daily and track every major macro event to keep you ahead of it.Big Tech earnings delivered a reality check for the AI trade.
Alphabet and Tesla both reported, and despite solid results—Google Cloud revenue grew 82%—their stocks fell as investors focused on higher AI capex guidance.
The market's mindset has shifted.
Not long ago, massive AI spending was rewarded as a sign of long-term vision. Now, it's being evaluated as a cost that must generate a clear return.
This is the same theme that pressured semiconductor stocks all week—only now it's showing up on the demand side.
The question is no longer whether AI will transform industries.
It's whether hundreds of billions in AI investment can produce meaningful returns before the revenue catches up.
Crypto offers a similar lesson. Markets can embrace powerful narratives, but once sentiment changes, investors demand results—not just expectations.
Today's risk-off move, with Bitcoin around $64K, reflects that broader "prove the ROI" mindset spreading across technology and risk assets.
Just my perspective—not financial advice.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #OKXOrbitTopics #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
As soon as the airstrike stopped, the ship began to move.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) confirmed that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is recovering. After Trump halted 13 consecutive days of airstrikes last week, the Omani delegation flew to Tehran that very day. The shipowners acted honestly—as long as it didn't explode, the cargo that needed to leave had to go.
But the word "rebound" depends on what you're comparing it to.
Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day. From the 24th to the 26th, even with a pause in airstrikes, daily cargo ship traffic remained in the single digits. On Monday the 27th, six cargo ships passed through. Although traffic has recovered somewhat compared to the near zero traffic during the air raids, compared to before the war, the current traffic volume is less than a fraction.
The numbers are indeed rising—from 0 to 6—but they correspond to normal levels, which means they haven't recovered.
What's even more troublesome is that the ship is sneaking by.
In the early hours of the 27th, six ships with their navigation and positioning systems disabled attempted to navigate through the southern "illegal and unsafe" channel; one ship had an accident, and the rest were "guided" back to the Persian Gulf by Iran. With GPS on for fear of being attacked, with the GPS turned off, for fear of trouble—shipowners are stuck in a dead-end dilemma: whether to leave or not.
Oil prices have already fallen as a sign of respect. Brent fell more than 6% to near $86, and WTI fell below $83. But the ceasefire agreement hasn't been signed yet, and the strait traffic volume remains in single digits. The 75% probability of a ceasefire is already reflected in oil prices, and the remaining 25% of the real risk is the breakdown of negotiations. Once the negotiations collapse, oil prices will rebound much faster than they will fall.
My judgment: The airstrike pause allowed the ship to move, but it was still far from returning to normal. The outcome of negotiations between both sides is the only thing that can determine the future trajectory. If the deal is reached, oil prices will continue to fall, risk assets will keep recovering; Negotiations fell through, oil prices rebounded violently, and everything fell to zero. Until the agreement is officially signed, this "stop-and-go" situation will not end. At least for now, the ship is moving, which is better than not moving at all.
$BZ $CL If you found it recently, come up
After breaking its recent high, the stock 🫓 has been oscillating downward. Although the volatility is limited, it is still in a wide-ranging phase
Currently, the daily upper level is suppressed by the EM69 level, maintaining EM15 and 30-day levels, with fluctuations around the area. Short-term support is forming but bullish momentum is insufficient. The Bollinger Trail is also closely following below the middle band, forming a fierce bullish and bearish battle
Intraday major concepts will still mainly fluctuate within a range, so there is no need to focus too much on one-sided trends. In the short term, pullbacks to near support levels should be observed near $BTC $ETH #沉睡比特币案迎行业机构介入 around 64,500-65,500 🚨 WHY EVERYTHING SOLD OFF TODAY
More than $1.4 trillion in global market value disappeared within hours.
📉 Stocks fell.
🥇 Metals dropped.
₿ Crypto followed.
At first, it looked like just another red day. But today's move was driven by several major catalysts hitting the market at the same time.
Here's what happened:
The biggest focus was AI.
Investors began questioning one of the market's most crowded trades after reports suggested China had made significant progress in domestic DUV lithography, raising concerns that the West's long-term semiconductor lead may not be as secure as previously believed.
At the same time, fresh reports around AI financing added another layer of uncertainty.
Nvidia is reportedly discussing financing worth hundreds of billions of dollars tied to OpenAI's infrastructure expansion.
Meanwhile, the four largest AI companies are expected to invest roughly $700 billion in AI capex this year.
For the first time in months, the conversation shifted from:
"How big can AI become?"
to
"Who is ultimately going to fund all of this?"
As semiconductor stocks weakened, selling pressure spread across the broader market.
Then macro factors added to the downside.
With tomorrow's Fed decision approaching, many investors chose to reduce risk rather than hold large positions into a major policy announcement.
Markets have also become more aggressive in pricing the possibility of additional rate hikes, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on risk assets.
The stronger dollar weighed on precious metals as well, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all moving lower.
Crypto faced additional headwinds after the Senate reportedly pushed the CLARITY Act further down its agenda while prioritizing other legislation, adding another layer of uncertainty for digital assets.
Another development also caught traders' attention:
#CXMTDebutShockwave
#FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch Ethereum's trend is basically fluctuating between 1700 and 2000, so this level is not suitable for any entry. Whether going long or short, the current price-to-profit ratio at this level is quite limited.
If you want to go long, you can wait until around 1850, add at 1780, and set your stop loss at 1700.
If you want to go short, you can wait until above 1930, then set your stop loss at 2000.
In the long run, the current trend is somewhat bearish; In the short term, it fluctuates between 1700 and 2000. If you really want to open a position, be sure to bring stop-loss with you, because there has been a lot of news this week and volatility is high. If a single piece of news comes out, your position could disappear.#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
NVIDIA is going to provide OpenAI with $250 billion in computing power. Such figures show that AI infrastructure is still being aggressively ramped up, not over.
The chain for crypto: AI infrastructure→ computing power demand→ energy (previously, Bitcoin mining companies shifted to AI computing power followed this logic), → some funds flowed from crypto to AI hardware. In the short term, it's about drawing blood; in the long term, it's the confidence behind the "AI × Crypto" narrative.
Do you think AI or crypto is more optimistic about this round? Or should we pursue both sides? Take a side in the comments.
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元 #AI #CryptoChangxin Technology's opening today has indeed awakened the entire A-share market.
The issue price was 8.66 yuan, and the opening price directly surged to around 49.5 yuan, with an increase of over 470%, and the opening market value once reached 3.3 trillion yuan.
Many people's first reaction is:
Is that too much?
Why did a storage company soar to the top tier of A-share market value as soon as it went public?
My understanding is that there are three layers of logic.
The first level is the new stock sentiment.
Changxin itself is a leading domestic DRAM player and a scarce target on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, making it easy for the market to offer high premiums.
There were no such pure DRAM manufacturing companies in the A-share market before, and there were not many options for funds to buy "domestic storage main lines".
So the first-day surge is partly due to fundamentals, partly due to scarcity and emotional premiums.
second layer is an industrial location.
Changxin is not an ordinary chip company, it is the storage track.
AI servers cannot be separated from HBM, DRAM, and SSD.
Mobile phones, PCs, cars, and data centers all rely on storage.
In the past, the global DRAM landscape was mainly dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Although Changxin's global market share is not yet high, it represents that China has truly begun to have its own core player in the DRAM field.
That's why the market is willing to give stories.
Because what it buys is not how much money it earns this year, but whether China's storage industry can continue to rise in the future.
The third level is performance explosion.
The storage period is different.
In the past, the market focused on storage, and more on mobile phones, PCs, and consumer electronics.
Now there's a big variable: AI.
AI training, inference, and data center expansion are all driving up memory and storage requirements.
Changxin's significant growth in revenue and profit this year is essentially a step into this round of storage prosperity.
But the brothers also need to be calm.
The opening ma#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
As soon as the ceasefire expectation materialized, WTI crude oil fell in a single day. Geopolitical risk premiums have faded, and funds have withdrawn from safe-haven assets.
The impact on crypto is direct but real: oil prices have fallen→ lower inflation expectations→ less pressure to raise rates→ which is favorable for risk assets, including BTC. The logical chain is long, don't just equate it directly, but that's the general direction.
Do you think the drop in oil prices is positive or no impact on BTC? Brother in the product business, come out and share.
#停火预期兑现WTI原油期货单日跌 #原油 #BTC#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning. The market generally expects no change this time, but what really affects the market is Powell's "hawkish or dovish" speech.
My experience: crypto's reaction to the Fed is getting duller, but volatility always rises around the decision date. At times like this, I usually don't bet on the direction in advance; I wait for the decision and see how the market votes with its feet.
Which type are you? Do you position ahead of the decision, or wait to act after it lands? Cast your mindset vote: A position ahead / B act after / C ignore the Fed.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #宏观 #BTC$BTC 对于目前的主流币来说 雨姐是看空的
其实看空的理由也很简单 有消息面显示贝莱德又开始像交易所转入大量的btc和eth 这消息面一出直接给市场带来恐慌 目前恐慌还没结束 晚间美股开盘 雨姐预测行情还会利空 加上我刚刚监测链上地址 很多大户都开始偷偷卖出 所以日内主流币雨姐还是看空的！！
以上均属于个人看法 不构成投资方向建议
$ETH $SOL
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $ZEC
🛡️ $ZEC‑3.73% at $465, MACD negative, consistent downward bleed. RSI‑6 36 weak bearish range, KDJ 33/28 depressed lows; low readings represent selling pressure, not buy signal. SAR $469 heavy supply ceiling rejecting bull attempts. Ironwood‑upgrade security concerns cast shadows, privacy‑coin segment out of investor favour.
I’m shorting $ZEC at $465, target $462; SAR resistance holds, downside extends to $458. Privacy narrative falling out of rotation — short.Privacy computing track witnesses stark performance bifurcation amid market swings. Amid broad market correction, merely 8 core tokens with unique narrative barriers hold price resilience.
Market breadth stays subdued, many privacy-concept altcoins encounter heavy selling flows, and leading privacy tokens mitigate downward market impact. Only these eight core targets show consistent capital accumulation characteristics, while other peripheral privacy coins fluctuate passively along with sentiment.
The 8 strong plays:
$ZEC, $ETH, $KAITO, $ZAMA,
$SOON,
$ALLO,
$LAB,
$XAU
The 92 laggards:
$BEAT, $SHIB, $WLD, $UB, $FIL, $LINK, $ONDO, $HYPE,
$DOGE,
$XRP,
$ADA,
low-liquidity altcoins with fading trading activity.
$ZEC represents the core narrative of on-chain privacy computing. It stabilizes above key support zones amid market liquidation, yet long-short capital divergence continues to widen. The persistent oscillating decline reflects chip reorganization, and the medium-term trend requires incremental capital verification. Over the past few years, I have tried many trading strategies, including trend trading, Martin trading, regular grid, CTA, spot and futures arbitrage, and funding rate arbitrage. As I gained trading experience, I became increasingly aware of one issue: truly stable returns do not come from predicting market trends, but from the structural opportunities within the trading market itself. Recently, I have focused mainly on spreads for CL (WTI crude oil) and BZ (Brent crude oil) perpetual contracts, combining AI, grids, statistical arbitrage, and funding rate models to build a market-neutral quantitative trading strategy. Why choose CL/BZ? CL (WTI) and BZ (Brent) are the two most important crude oil benchmarks globally. Although both are affected by international oil prices, there is always a pricing difference between the two because: - Different geographic locations - Different crude oil quality - Different inventory structures - Different OPEC policy impacts - Different geopolitical factors. Historically, this spread has not been fixed but fluctuates continuously within a certain range. For traders, this means: what can truly be traded is not just oil price fluctuations but the relative relationship between the two markets. Compared to directly predicting oil price directions, trading spreads often reduce overall directional risk. --- I am not doing one-sided, but spreads. For example: when BZ is 2 USD cheaper than CL: I can buy BZ and sell the same amount of CL. When the spread widens to 4 #CLARITYActStalled
Holding a Luoyang shovel, dig thirty meters down into the legal strata of the Americas, and you'll find that the debates between noble private property and national codes in the Roman Senate haven't changed a speck of dust.
Before the August recess heatwave hit Capitol Hill, the CLARITY Act, which sought to demarcate digital assets, was nailed deep into the quagmire of partisan strife, much like the imperial decree shelved in the third century. The probability of passing the market dropping repeatedly — one-third is merely another "decree cannot leave the Senate" recorded by historians on bamboo slips.
If you carefully clean the remnants of interest in this layer of sediment, you'll find the biggest obstacle comes from the $1.4 billion crypto wealth accumulated on that scepter contender. When the ruler's personal treasury overlaps with the regulated public property, the so-called "ethical clause" becomes a shield made of parchment. The Ministry of Justice's monopoly on enforcement power, the ambiguous band of hidden holdings, and even the "sunset clause" that will automatically expire on January 20, 2029—how is this institutional construction? This was clearly a temporary immunity plaque custom-made by the nobility for themselves—even the unearthed archives of ancient Greek tyranny were amazed by it.
The deep tremors have long traveled along the capital's nerves to the $XAAPL of US stock tokenized stocks. When legal clarity is diluted into a mud amid political struggles, the $XAAPL, a mirror of traditional tech giants, bears the weight of the old empire's real financial reports and, on a micro level, is entangled by the institutional pains of decentralized assets. This linkage is not simply a capital hedging but a massive friction created during the transition period between the old and new power structures. In the historical wave of gold and silver coin devaluation, the first cracks to appear were never private money, but precisely these vouchers linked to state-run industries.
The alternating between bull and bear markets is never just simple numerical fluctuations, but relics of repeated struggles between scepters and capital within the strata. Every historical attempt to incorporate emerging forms of currency into the legal framework has met with resistance from the old aristocracy under the banner of "moral defects" and the greedy claim of immunity from the new elite. The trench had already been opened, and what emerged beneath the soil was never a brand-new future, but just another Roman city-state held back by conflicting interests.#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
The most correct thing recently has been not to engage in trades I don't understand
For example, this "light" in the US stock market, I controlled my hands and didn't bottom-fish or go long.
I don't understand it, and I have no logic or basis for bottom-fishing
Purely subjective thinking that after a big drop, it's time to bottom-fish
Now I should be like everyone else, just wanting to sell on the rebound and never play again
But after adding leverage, once trapped, whether you get liquidated first or rebound to get out of the trap is no longer up to you
From a technical perspective, it has little reference value. The biggest volatility logic in the US stock market is:
The fundamentals of companies and sectors combined with market sentiment.
The current decline somewhat reflects panic and deleveraging
Without a violent deleveraging, the decline probably won't stop
If there is a strong positive earnings report as a booster shot, it might temporarily halt the fall.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK
#DailyOrbit #Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on debut
In just two days, two major shocks hit the US stock market and the Korean market.
On Monday, Changxin Technology went public, and before the market could fully digest this heavy bombshell, the semiconductor industry chain faced a second wave of impact—the news of large-scale mass production of China's domestic lithography machines reignited global concerns about the AI hardware market.
Changxin Technology's market value surged on its first day of listing, sending a very clear signal: China's memory industry is accelerating breakthroughs. From previously relying on overseas supply to gradually covering core segments like DRAM and NAND, China's semiconductor supply chain is forming its own closed loop.
If domestic DUV lithography machines enter mass production, the impact will extend beyond the lithography equipment sector to the entire memory industry landscape.
For SanDisk ($XSNDK), $SKHYNIX, and $SAMSUNG, the greatest pressures come from two aspects:
First, China's memory capacity expansion may alter the future supply-demand balance. In recent years, the AI wave has driven up prices for HBM and high-end memory, allowing companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to enjoy a high-profit cycle. But if Chinese companies continue to expand DRAM and NAND capacity, memory prices may face downward pressure in the coming years, compressing corporate profit margins.
Second, the market is beginning to reassess the AI hardware cycle. Previously, investors believed AI demand would indefinitely drive chip and memory growth, but now capital is starting to worry: can AI infrastructure investment be sustained? Can massive capital expenditures translate into actual profits?
This explains the recent significant pullback in memory stocks like SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung. The market is shifting from the narrative of "unlimited AI hardware growth" to seeking software and tech giants with genuine long-term moats.
In my view,
China's semiconductor breakthroughs represent a long-term structural change for the global industry chain, not just short-term news speculation. In the short term, breakthroughs in domestic memory and lithography machines will put valuation pressure on overseas memory giants, especially highly cyclical NAND and DRAM companies, whose future profits may enter a repricing phase.
On the other hand, semiconductor competition is not just about capacity; the true core lies in advanced process technology, yield, ecosystem, and global market competitiveness. China's breakthroughs will accelerate industry reshuffling but will not replace giants like Samsung and SK Hynix overnight.
The AI revolution is not over, but the golden valuation phase for AI hardware may be cooling down. The future market will focus more on who can truly convert AI investments into profits, rather than just selling shovels.
This competition may have only just begun. Last week, the inflow of funds attracted by the Ethereum ETF was nearly three times that of the Bitcoin ETF.
The upcoming "Cryptocurrency Clarity Act" could become a major catalyst for Ethereum, and institutional holdings indicate the market has already started paying attention to $ETH
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Er Bing continues to take advantage of this round, and even during a volatile market, there's still a chance.
Shorted near 1893, saw the rebound gain pick up, first pocketed 327% profit, then lightly held at 1860 and continued waiting for opportunities.
The overall outlook is still bearish, and that hasn't changed.
However, when the market moves, it won't keep falling; there will definitely be a rebound in between.
Many people tend to do this: they cling to one direction and stubbornly pursue it, only to lose all their profits when the market rebounds.
Trading isn't just about direction; you also need to watch market changes.
Seeing the rebound start to strengthen this time, I'll let my brothers pocket it first; there's no need to hold it out.
Once the seats at the back arrive, we can continue arranging them.
Being able to read trends and follow market adjustments is what trading is.
You don't have to go all out every day; being able to steadily secure profits is the real deal. $BTC $ETH #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 on its first day SanDisk (SNDK) has completely plummeted in the past couple of days! After yesterday's plunge of 11%, today it plunged more than 14% intraday, with the stock hitting a low near $1,050. In just two trading days, this super bull stock, which soared more than seven times in the first half of the year, lost a quarter of its market value, and the entire US chip sector was dragged down by it. From a technical trend perspective, SanDisk's current candlestick chart can be said to be "the trend has gone down." The stock price not only broke through all major moving average defenses in one go but also left a massive loss-trapped position above. Even worse, the market is experiencing a brutal "machine crash." As soon as the stock price falls below a key integer level, the quantitative trading systems and automatic stop-loss orders of major institutions are triggered like a domino effect. Everyone panicked and cut losses without regard to cost, causing transaction volumes to skyrocket and crush themselves. Although SanDisk still holds $42 billion in real cash orders, and this year's production capacity has long been snatched up by customers, the fundamentals are actually not bad. But in the current state of panic, the speed at which funds flee is the absolute biggest factor determining stock prices. As Wall Street's big bears keep warning that AI chip valuations are too high and storage prices are about to peak, those who previously made huge profits now just want to pocket it, triggering this technical cathartic crash. For investors looking to buy the dip, now is a time to avoid blindly catching flying knives. Although various technical indicators have fallen to extremely severe "oversold" levels, the bearish momentum of sprinting downward still remains. Next, I have to keep my eyes on the final psychological barrier of $1,000. Before seeing a complete shrinkage in trading volume and a long lower shadow in the stock price, the safest choice is to be short-positioned and patiently wait for the market to truly stabilize. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day ETH's rebound is entering a phase highly dependent on external variable validation rather than trend establishment.
The variable most likely to disable the current structure: If the continuous selling pressure in the $2000-2055 range fails to be broken, the recent two-week bottom rise will be merely a short covering driven by geopolitical sentiment recovery, rather than genuine demand entering the market.
Key facts:
- ETH rebounded from $1,500 to $2,055, then pulled back and stabilized near $1,945, before a slight rebound over the weekend.
- News of the US-Iran pause in military operations pushed ETH up more than 3% in a single day, but the $2055 area remains strong resistance on the weekly chart.
- Last week, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $161 million, marking four consecutive weeks of net outflows; Meanwhile, the cumulative net inflow for the entire July was still $338 million.
- BlackRock's ETHA products saw a single-day net inflow of $41.92 million, indicating that passive allocation funds are still ongoing.
- BTC ETFs ended a seven-day cycle of net inflows, with clear signs of institutional funds taking short-term profits.
- The probability of a Fed rate hike in July rose to 36.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September reached 55.2%, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining elevated.
How events change market structure and pricing:
- The current ETH rebound is mostly driven by the fading geopolitical risk premium, which is a short-term speculative capital replenishment rather than long-term holders actively increasing their positions.
- The coexistence of continuous net outflows and single-day passive allocation indicates that real demand has not systematically returned, but rather institutions are actively managing positions: selling short-term gains and buying long-term allocations.
- The news of a US-Iran ceasefire is a one-off emotional pulse that cannot sustain price breaks through technical resistance unless a clear signal of rate cuts or liquidity easing follows.
- The $2000-2055 area is a weekly supply zone; a breakout requires sustained buying growth, and current net ETF outflows are putting pressure on expectations of rate hikes.
Biased Multiple Paths and Conditions:
- If ETH can effectively break through and hold above $2000-2055, it means passive allocation funds will begin to dominate pricing, short-term speculative selling pressure will be digested, and the target could reach $2100-2150.
- Conditions: BTC simultaneously breaks through key resistance, U.S. Treasury yields fall, and ETF net outflows turn into net inflows.
Bearish paths and risks:
- If ETH falls below $1900-1920 (support zones at MA55 and MA120 and recent accumulation bottoms), it indicates insufficient buying after geopolitical sentiment subsides, with bears regaining dominance, targeting $1850-1800.
- Trigger conditions: Further heating of expectations for Fed rate hikes, continued net outflows from BTC ETFs, and renewed geopolitical risks.
Conclusion: ETH is currently oscillating within a narrow range between technical resistance and macro pressure, with genuine demand yet to form a trend push. The short-term direction depends on whether passive allocation funds can break through the $2000-2055 range, rather than speculative funds. If it fails to break through, the rebound structure will fail, and the downside risk outweighs the upside potential.
Risk warning: Geopolitical events and macro data may change market expectations at any time; a breakout or breakdown of a key range requires verification by trading volume.
$ETH $BTC #加密市场 #以太坊$SNDK $MU
The trends of Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) are almost identical: a surge → peak → sharp decline.
This is not due to a sudden collapse in fundamentals, but a typical emotional-driven AI storage market retreat.
Why did it surge so crazily?
The market continuously overestimated future performance; stock price gains far outpaced earnings growth, entering a typical emotional bull market.
Institutional funds concentrated their holdings; Micron and SanDisk became AI storage leaders, with valuations continuously rising.
Storage prices entered an upward cycle; after several years of lows, DRAM and NAND prices increased, leading the market to expect explosive corporate profits.
Why did it fall so fast?
Observing the monthly K-line chart reveals:
- Historically high volume at the peak
- Long upper shadows
- Consecutive large bearish candles
- Breaking below the 5-month moving average
This indicates that funds have started to realize profits.
Recent market concerns include:
- The listing of China's ChangXin (CXMT) has increased worries about future DRAM supply.
- AI storage sector valuations are too high, prompting profit-taking.
- The entire semiconductor sector is experiencing capital rotation and declining risk appetite.
Rises rely on expectations; falls rely on profit realization.
During the rise:
- The AI narrative grows bigger and bigger
- Institutions keep chasing higher prices
- Retail investors fear missing out
- Stock prices increasingly detach from fundamentals
During the fall:
- Any bit of bad news triggers selling by profit holders
- Leveraged funds cut losses
- Stock prices quickly return to reasonable valuations
Therefore, the decline is often as fierce as the previous rise.
In summary:
This round of sharp decline is not because AI is gone, but because the earlier rise was too fast and valuations were overstretched. Under the combined effects of ChangXin's listing expectations, profit-taking, and weakening market sentiment, a typical "what goes up must come down" correction occurred.
The real key to the subsequent trend will be whether upcoming corporate earnings reports can continue to deliver AI-driven growth. July 28, 11 PM | Why did the US stock market diverge sharply today, with the chip sector continuously plummeting? Five overlapping logics
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
① Nvidia $NVDA's “circular financing” model questioned by the market
Recently, Nvidia has disclosed a series of large-scale cooperation plans: over $500 billion industrial chain cooperation with SK Group, and plans to provide up to $250 billion in computing power leasing guarantees for OpenAI.
Bloomberg macro strategist pointed out that these agreements have reignited market doubts about the “circular cash flow” logic of AI capital expenditure — Nvidia's revenue growth heavily depends on downstream customers' financing ability, with funds circulating within the industrial chain. Once the financing environment changes, the entire AI spending chain faces contraction risk.
Nvidia's five-year CDS (credit default swap) surged about 14 basis points to 82 basis points on Monday, marking the largest single-day increase since the contract began trading.
CDS prices for Oracle, SpaceX $SPCX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and others have recently all risen to historical highs.
② AI capital expenditure panic spreads from Alphabet $GOOGL
Alphabet previously raised its 2026 capital expenditure by $15 billion to as high as $205 billion, with Q2 free cash flow turning negative for the first time since its 2004 IPO.
Market sentiment on AI investment has shifted from “the more the better” to “the less the better,” with worries continuing to ferment.
③ Double pressure from super central bank week + super earnings week
The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on July 28-29, with the rate decision announced Wednesday.
FedWatch shows a 64%-66.3% probability of maintaining rates, but the chance of a 25bp hike remains as high as 33.7%-35%. Market sentiment is cautious.
This week, Microsoft, Meta (after Wednesday's close), Apple, and Amazon (Thursday) will release earnings, with investors highly focused on AI capital expenditure plans.
④ ChangXin Memory's IPO shocks the global memory sector
Chinese memory chip company ChangXin Technology's A-share debut was explosive, introducing new variables to the global memory chip sector.
The market worries that the rise of Chinese memory chips will erode market share.
⑤ Goldman Sachs: AI is the main drag on the broader market
Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the core reason for the S&P 500's stagnation over the past two months is market doubts about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment.
On the day, the S&P 500 excluding AI-related stocks rose 0.80%, significantly outperforming the overall index.
Globalt Investments senior manager bluntly said: “The AI bubble is showing signs of deflating.”Nvidia's plan to provide OpenAI with massive guarantees triggered a market repricing of off-balance-sheet implicit debt, and $NVDA fell 5% in response, highlighting that the core conflict has shifted from high computing power growth to credit risk and balance sheet expansion limits.
The 5% drop in stock prices in a single day directly reflects immediate rebalancing actions triggered by rising risk aversion on the trading side, and bearish sentiment in the options market rising to a three-month high has changed short-term volatility expectations. Credit analysts reassess debt ratings; if the $250 billion guarantee is treated as off-balance-sheet liabilities, rising financing costs will directly limit valuation recovery potential.
In the ranking of drivers, off-balance-sheet credit risk transmission dominates. $250 billion in contingent liabilities is equivalent to six years of Nvidia's free cash flow, a figure that has changed the market's assessment of its margin of safety; Additionally, OpenAI has lost tens of billions of dollars in a single year and profitability is far from expected, and the pullback in risk appetite has suppressed the willingness of long positions to build positions.
The secondary driver is the redistribution of industry competition. Nvidia has locked in TSMC's CoWoS capacity for OpenAI, forcing AMD MI300 and Intel Gaudi to move up schedules, while also impacting Broadcom's ASIC business and the promotion of self-developed chips like Microsoft Azure Maia and Amazon Trainium.
The upside scenario is triggered by OpenAI's commercialization exceeding expectations or ongoing demand for computing power. If revenue growth covers rental costs, default risks are offset by earnings releases, and bearish short positions will drive the stock price to recover a 5% decline; This scenario fails as a signal for a credit rating downgrade.
The downside scenario triggers the scenario for rating agencies to officially recognize the $250 billion guarantee as off-balance-sheet liabilities, which raises financing costs. Combined with the capital outflow pressure from the $350 billion financing support, the exit of positions may cause the overall valuation center of the computing power sector to shift downward; This scenario fails signaling OpenAI achieving quarterly break-even.
In the next seven days, the focus should be on qualitative statements from credit rating agencies on the $250 billion guarantee, as well as changes in the concentration of bearish positions in the options market.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元🚨 Today's wave in Asian stock markets is not just a drop.
The market is starting to reassess the AI sector.
South Korea is the most obvious example.
Samsung and SK Hynix directly dragged down the KOSPI.
Over the past year, the logic driving the Korean market has been:
The hotter AI gets
→ The scarcer memory becomes
→ DDR5 prices rise
→ Storage manufacturers' profits increase.
But now the market is starting to worry about another issue:
If supply begins to increase, how long can these high profits last?
The IPO of Chinese storage manufacturer CXMT has put this question directly on the table.
This doesn't mean Samsung and SK Hynix will be replaced tomorrow.
Rather, the market is starting to trade ahead:
Will the memory cycle peak?
Additionally, US chip stocks have also been adjusting recently.
The AI chain is essentially a single line:
NVIDIA
↓
Cloud providers
↓
Storage
↓
Semiconductor equipment
If any link cools down, capital will first withdraw from the most crowded spots.
With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, many funds are choosing to take profits first.
So today's drop is not just about South Korea.
It's a drop in the most crowded AI trades of the past year.
What we really need to watch now is:
Not whether AI has a future.
But whether the profits brought by AI can outpace the speed of capital investment. CoinGecko's Q2 report includes some interesting data: spot trading volume on the top ten centralized exchanges fell 27.9% quarter-on-quarter, while perpetual contract volume only dropped 10%. Beginners might ask: Isn't it all about trading volume? What's the difference? Spot trading is closer to "buying assets with real money"; Perpetual allows for going long, shorting, and using leverage. When the market lacks a clear upward trend, many funds are reluctant to hold coins long-term, yet still prefer to use volatility for short-term trading. Perpetual trading may therefore be more resilient than spot trading. This is not necessarily good news. Active derivatives and a relatively cool spot mean prices are more easily driven by short-term positions, funding rates, and liquidations. When you see a sudden surge, don't rush to assume long-term funds are entering the market; first check whether the spot trading volume has also expanded. If this divergence continues, the market is likely to remain dominated by high volatility, fast pace, and local market movements; Only when spot demand clearly recovers can the foundation for the trend become more solid. Market knowledge sharing is provided only and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC BTC couldn’t stay above $BTC 65,000 and now the pressure is to the downside.
At this point the whole short-term direction is tied to the Clarity Act. The problem is, it’s not looking likely.
The Senate has shifted focus to other priorities, and with only 11 days left before recess the window is closing fast.
In my view, unless something completely unexpected happens, the Clarity Act isn’t passing this round.
If that’s the case, don’t be surprised if $BTC BTC sets a new low sooner than most people think. The timeline just got a lot tighter and the market is pricing that in.
#CXMTDebutShockwave
#FOMCRateWatch
#AIEarningsWatch Brothers, let's analyze Hynix: On July 27, the US stock market closed down 7.47% at 143.02U, just 18 days after listing, officially falling below the 149U issue price; on July 28, the US market continued its downward trend, dropping again to 9.63%, hitting a low of 128.8U, with liquidity panic continuing to ferment. Bottom-fishing in the short term is unrealistic; only some bears may take profits and buy for a slight rebound, but overall the trend remains downward. On July 27, Changxin Technology's STAR Market debuted with a 465% surge, raising 57.9 billion RMB, securing massive funding to accelerate DRAM and NAND capacity expansion, with long-term plans to enter the HBM high-end computing power storage track. SK Hynix itself announced an additional 79 trillion KRW for capacity expansion, while Samsung and Kioxia simultaneously announced large-scale 300+ layer NAND and advanced DRAM expansion plans, with massive new capacity to be released in 2027; SK Hynix's business is closely tied to the storage spot price increase cycle. If flash and memory prices fall in the future, the company's gross margin will rapidly decline from its historical peak, signaling capital to compete early at the turning point of the cycle. SK Hynix went public on the US stock market in early July to raise 26.5 billion USD, but within just 18 days of listing, it fell below the issue price of 149 USD, leaving overseas US investors stranded and mounting stop-loss selling pressure; Combined with panic selling from local Korean retail investors, both sides of selling pressure simultaneously pushed the stock price higher. The price effectively breaks below the 5-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages. The strong support near 135U has turned into medium-term strong resistance, and a rebound to this range will face massive sell-off from trapped positions. If it rebounds to around 138, you can short-term and buy the remaining market moves,Korea takes a 10% hit while Changxin debuts in Shanghai: Is the chip market resetting? The market sent two very different signals this week: One side: South Korea’s benchmark got slammed. Memory stocks bore the brunt. The other side: A Chinese storage player listed in A-shares and immediately stole the spotlight. At first glance it looks like a sentiment split. In reality it’s about one shift: the global memory game is entering a new phase. What drove Korea down? Demand didn’t vanish. What b