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Written before today's announcement of the core PCE The Fed's policy meeting had just ended in the early morning, and by 8:30 PM in Beijing, PCE data was available. In the early hours, Walsh repeatedly emphasized that the Fed was keeping inflation at 2%, referring to core PCE, so the importance of core PCE is self-evident. Unfortunately, this month's core PCE and CPI data are about the same, so the impact on the market should be very short-term and limited, mainly because of oil prices. In June, oil prices fell, but after just one month, prices rebounded. So the current inflation data is quite awkward. Market expectations have indeed dropped, and investors believe they will decrease, but inflation will definitely rise next month. Therefore, this month's reduction becomes meaningless. This is why I say the impact on the market is very limited. Just look at this month's CPI data. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is the new highlight $BTC Core impact of late initial jobless claims: The data mainly disrupted expectations of Fed rate cuts, indirectly driving crypto rallies. Initial applications are relatively low→ employment is strong, high interest rate expectations are heating up, US dollar and US Treasury yields are strengthening, and crypto is under pressure; Initial requests rose significantly→ economic weakness and rising expectations of rate cuts are boosting coin prices; If the data meets expectations, the market will fluctuate. There is a lot of noise at the start of the week, and tonight's core PCE weights are higher, making data easily hedging. Currently, the crypto market is highly tied to US dollar liquidity, and the fluctuations driven by data are mostly short-term sentiment, making it difficult to maintain a sustained trend. Avoid heavy positions in gambling, be wary of pin-insertion and double kills between long and short, and prioritize the signals of US Treasury and US dollar linkage. $BTC $ETH #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight SK Hynix (SKHX) touched $921.3 intraday, plunging about 8% intraday, with trading volume expanding to $1.523 billion. On the surface, it appears to be panic selling, but the signals from the capital side are the opposite—the value of open interest has climbed against the trend to $571 million, indicating that not only has off-exchange funds not flown out, but is actually continuously accumulating. Particularly noteworthy was yesterday's unusual movement: the value of open interest surged from $443 million to $564 million, with $120 million flowing in in a single day—an increase of 27.2%. Such a scale of position increase is often not the behavior of retail investors. Regarding funding rates, hourly rates +0.0431%, 24-hour cumulative about +0.3948%, up 37.5% quarter-on-quarter. Higher rates indicate that bulls are continuously paying costs to maintain their positions, and the bullish sentiment has not faded despite the price decline. Looking at the whale's position (holding over $1 million in positions): the ratio of long-short positions to longs and bears is 1.24:1, with long positions ahead of bears by about $282 million. This indicates that there are more large players overall, but the advantages are not overwhelmingly different. To summarize the current situation: prices are falling, money is flowing in, and rates are rising—a typical "long-tail capital entering the market on the dip" structure, while although large players are numerous, they have yet to form an overwhelming synergy. Whether the market will rebound or continue to shake out depends on whether these increased positions can withstand short-term floating loss pressure. Many people thought last night's liquidation wave was a sign of a crash, but in fact, the market is quietly changing hands. Have you ever wondered why, after the $337 million liquidation, the lows of Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually rising? Last night was indeed the most brutal deleveraging of the year, with 93,786 accounts instantly wiped out, BTC hitting a low of 61,600, and ETH falling below 1,705. Interestingly, the price structure did not collapse; instead, it regained above 64,175 and 1,775 before dawn. This is not a continuation of panic; it's big money secretly taking on chips under the guise of fear. If you only look at liquidation numbers, you might feel the market is fragile. But if you look further into cross-market scenarios, you'll find a more subtle signal: gold and tech stocks (like SNDK) are also experiencing sharp volatility simultaneously, but their lows are also being bought back during testing. What does this indicate? Liquidity is not a solo escape from crypto; rather, global assets are undergoing a stress test of risk appetite. My trading logic is simple: - ZEC re-entered at 467.5 last night, but if it returns to cost today, I will exit directly. If the logic changes, admit mistakes and don't drag things out. - SOL stayed as planned, and the structure was intact. - BTC supports at 61,600 / 59,800, resistance at 67,135 / 70,000. After breaking below 63,000 yesterday, it quickly pulled back; today, the focus is on whether 64,175 can hold. Demand is slowly returning; wait for a retest before carefully trying the first order. - ETH branchBitcoin is trading in a narrow range around $63,989 today, slightly down by $23 (-0.04%), repeatedly tugging back to the key psychological level of $64,000. Yesterday's market showed wide volatility, dipping to a low of $62,707 before buyers stepped in, then rebounding to $65,720. However, heavy selling pressure above caused a long upper shadow on the candlestick, indicating strong resistance around $65,700. The previous support level (POC) has turned into short-term resistance, and this technical structure remains unchanged. From the capital flow perspective, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator shows signs of turning upward, indicating spot buying is gradually returning. Meanwhile, the funding rate remains relatively high at 0.0085%, reflecting crowded long positions. Overall open interest has not increased significantly, suggesting the current market is more about existing funds competing, with cautious willingness from new capital to enter. In the short term, the core resistance is at $65,700, and key support is at $62,700. Until the price effectively breaks out of this range, it is likely to continue oscillating within it. The current $64,000 level is in an awkward middle ground. It is recommended to watch more and trade less, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, and patiently wait for a clear direction before making decisions. $BTC $ETH The Fed left interest rates unchanged, which removed a major source of uncertainty. Crypto initially stayed quiet as equities weighed on sentiment, but the broader structure remains constructive as long as key support levels continue to hold. BTC Price action is still favoring a buy-the-dip approach while above support. Bullish trigger: Reclaim 64,700 Resistance: 65,900 → 67,500 → 69,500 Support: 62,800 → 61,500 → 60,000 ETH Ethereum remains in recovery mode if it stays above the key pivot. BullMore than half of South Korean investors have already jumped Can Hynix really buy the dip? Everyone has probably seen SK Hynix's decline in recent weeks The earnings report also fell short of expectations But I believe SK Hynix's transition from bear to bull is not far off First, we need to understand the reasons behind SK Hynix's recent sharp decline 1: Poor financial reports are due to spending money on expansion 2: Institutions are maliciously short selling 3: Reduce leverage I believe that if you don't look closely at the market right now, you can definitely buy the dip Here's why 1: If SK Hynix falls further, political issues are very likely to arise 2: Judging by the expansion alone, the construction is almost complete at this point 3: The bulls have already begun to gain the upper hand 4: The support level below is very strong $SKHY $BTC $SNDK Just glanced at the Greed and Fear Index, 32, back to freezing point again. The whole market is as quiet as if it’s closed, no one is grabbing red envelopes in the group chat. But don’t be fooled by this illusion. According to OKX real-time data, $RE stubbornly pushed up 15 points in this quietness, with a trading volume hitting 6.51M. It’s like a barbecue stall at 3 a.m. suddenly getting a table of guys in suits, ordering ten skewers of lamb kidneys and opening a bottle of Lafite—super abrupt. I asked a market maker friend, and this move is likely an Asian whale from the last round trying to unwind their position. The tactic is old: pushing the price up with tiny buy orders when liquidity is dry to attract bots to follow. This kind of pump looks fierce but is actually like throwing firecrackers into dry wood—loud for a moment, then gone. Like those modified cars occasionally revving loudly on the city overpass, huge noise but all plastic parts once you hit the brakes. Now look at $KAITO, down 10.65%, that’s the real temperature of the current market—chilling cold. Those dreaming that the altcoin season has arrived, wake up, first get $ZAMA’s broken price trend back to the opening price before talking. Real money only recognizes BTC and ETH; this kind of sudden death pump, rushing in most likely means standing guard at the peak. Observe more, hype less. Watch $RE’s on-chain accumulation addresses for anomalies, watch the thickness of $CARDS’s one-sided buy orders—better than listening to those wild K-line analysts. Today, the long-established DeFi lending blue-chip EUL plunged sharply, ranking among the top ten losers, marking the complete end of the DeFi oversold recovery rally. EUL, as a long-established lending protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem, has experienced a long period of low ecosystem heat, user base, and TVL after past hacking incidents. Previously, the logic behind EUL's rise was purely capital switching between high and low and catching up for oversold stocks, which was a short-term rotation in niche sectors. The DeFi sector is overall stagnant TVL, on-chain lending demand is weak, user activity is insufficient, and there has been no substantial recovery in fundamentals. After a brief period of market speculation and undervaluation of DeFi, funds quickly realized that the sector lacked growth, no real implementation, and no sustained data improvement. The hype enthusiasm quickly faded, and funds collectively withdrew from the DeFi sector. Coupled with today's decline in global risk appetite, funds are avoiding all weak fundamental altcoin tracks, prioritizing clustering with mainstream stocks, and small- and mid-cap DeFi coins have been concentrated sell-off. The EUL chip structure is unstable and liquidity is average, amplifying the decline. Technically, the price surged and pulled back, with high volume breaking through levels. Short-term support was lost, returning to the bottom, oscillating downward range. The DeFi sector is still in a long-term bear market, with no signs of reversal; all recovery moves are just temporary impulses. Looking ahead, EUL will continue to show a weak pattern, mainly fluctuating and falling with no trend opportunities, only suitable for extreme short-term gambling, with no long-term investment value.From today's information, the overall sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, more like "there are pros and cons, stability is the main focus," and there is no absolute positive trend that could unilaterally drive a sharp rise. Specifically, the following points are worth noting: · Macro situation "hanging in the balance": The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected, but hawkish remarks have left the market worried about possible future rate hikes. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and putting pressure on risk assets, the market barely held above $64,000. · Key bills enter sprint: The Senate is making its final bargaining over the Clarity Act before its August recess. If approved, it would be a long-term benefit, but time is tight and controversy remains. The SEC chairman stated that if the bill fails, he will introduce its own rules, which serves as a safeguard. · AI computing power becomes a lifeline: mining companies are transitioning to AI data centers after Bitcoin plunges (nearly halved from historical highs), with some companies' AI revenue surging ninefold. While this is positive for companies undergoing transformation, it also reflects the difficulties faced by the mining business. · South Korea's "tax inspection" is a negative factor: South Korea plans legislation to freeze crypto accounts suspected of illegal transfers, which usually brings short-term regulatory pressure. Overall, calling it "positive" today is somewhat reluctant. The market is in a wait-and-see phase: on one side, two major issues remain unresolved, Federal Reserve policy and the Clarity Act; on the other, Bitcoin prices are barely holding steady but market fear is pervasive. The risks outweigh the opportunities.The story of AI has entered its second half. The real money is not in the models, but in the ability to monetize. Microsoft and Meta released their earnings almost simultaneously. One surged after hours, the other plunged at one point after hours. Many people's first reaction was: Has the market started to lose faith in AI? I actually think the market is not disbelieving AI, but rather starting to reprice AI. In the past, just saying "All in AI" could boost valuations. Now capital asks a different question: Can your AI sustainably make money? The biggest signal in Microsoft's earnings report is not Azure's 43% growth, nor the cloud business surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue. What really matters is that it has turned AI into a business that enterprises are willing to commit to long-term contracts. RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) continues to hit new highs, meaning a lot of customer money is already locked in advance, just waiting for Microsoft to deliver slowly. AI is no longer just a PPT slide, but part of enterprise budgets. In contrast, Meta. The advertising business remains strong, and AI recommendations have indeed improved ad efficiency. But the market is more concerned about another issue: For every $1 Meta earns, it still needs to invest more money to build AI infrastructure. Capital expenditures are rising, and cash flow pressure is becoming increasingly apparent. This is why, even though both talk about AI, the market feedback is completely different. ⸻ If we shift the perspective to Crypto, I think the most worth watching is not the AI concept Meme. But $TAO (Bittensor). The reason is simple. Microsoft sells AI services. OpenAI sells AI models. But TAO aims to build an open AI compute and model incentive network. If in the future AI is not just a few giants, but more and more models, agents, and inference nodes collaborating, then a decentralized AI network might have its own value capture ability. Of course, this path is still long and carries significant execution risks. But the market has already started to prove one thing: AI valuations will not always come from imagination, but from cash flow. The same applies to the crypto market. The AI projects that can truly succeed in the future are likely not: "We used AI." But rather: AI brings real revenue, real users, and real demand. So now when I look at the AI sector, I pay more attention to three things: * Is there sustained growth in usage? * Is there stable growth in revenue? * Is there an increasingly strong network effect? Stories can be hyped for a quarter. But cash flow can sustain a bull market. $TAO Let's talk about when US stocks will stop falling Can you still buy the bottom after storing everything? Yesterday's closing session saw a surge in volume and a decline. From the news side, it appears inflation is intensifying, and expectations of interest rate hikes are starting again. In reality, it's still the US stock gains from March to June and the uncertainty of AI investment. When faced with uncertainty, the market tends to sell blindly. Currently, there is no sign of stabilizing the decline. The Nasdaq has mostly fallen and risen more than gained, mainly supported by the Seven Sisters. The original logic was hard tech falling, software rising, NVIDIA rising, Apple rising, Google rising. Now, after clearly selling hard tech, funds have abandoned the Seven Sisters When will this situation improve? The ultimate form of this improvement should be when Nvidia begins to stabilize, stabilize, or even form a strong trend. This requires not only explosive earnings reports but also technological breakthroughs and a new round of AI gaps. When Nvidia rises, semiconductors will recover, storage will stop falling and rebound, and US stocks will rebound. But now, there's no need to pay more attention to everyone's advice. When I first bought US stocks, the pandemic hit right after I bought them. At the time, I was completely on guard at the summit, but when I checked afterwards, that spot was just a small pit The advantage of spot trading and regular averaging is that you can endure. US stocks are highly volatile, and in the long run, QQQ still has an average return of 20%. I don't think AI will ever collapse, nor do I think we'll buy Nasdaq at its century-high now. The market really needs to cool down. Once cooled, only a rational self can buy Google and SMH. Back then, buying and holding prices wasn't just to sell at a slight rise or unbearable with a slight drop. There are too many people who want to get rich overnight in the US market, but Buffett has long said that speculating on US stock market prices is tantamount to suicide. I remain firmly optimistic about AI tech stocks. Maybe looking back in a few years, now is definitely a great opportunity 😊 #Written before today's announcement of the core PCE The Fed's policy meeting had just ended in the early morning, and by 8:30 PM in Beijing, PCE data was available. In the early hours, Walsh repeatedly emphasized that the Fed was keeping inflation at 2%, referring to core PCE, so the importance of core PCE is self-evident. Unfortunately, this month's core PCE and CPI data are about the same, so the impact on the market should be very short-term and limited, mainly because of oil prices. In June, oil prices fell, but after just one month, prices rebounded. So the current inflation data is quite awkward. Market expectations have indeed dropped, and investors believe they will decrease, but inflation will definitely rise next month. Therefore, this month's reduction becomes meaningless. This is why I say the impact on the market is very limited. Just look at this month's CPI data.South Korea's finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly today. He bowed because retail investors lost a lot of money due to single-stock leveraged ETFs. It's rare for the top financial official of a country to apologize over a financial product. Behind this is the sharp drop in South Korean chip stocks. The 2x leveraged ETFs of Samsung and SK Hynix had surged dramatically before, and the correction was just as severe. Many retail investors rushed in at high prices, and a single pullback wiped them out completely. Brothers trading contracts in the crypto space, this storyline should be familiar, right? Spot combined with leverage makes you feel your judgment is spot-on when prices rise, but when they fall, you realize it’s all thanks to leverage. The hotter the market, the more rampant the use of leverage tools. Korean regulators are only now reacting to clamp down, but it’s already too late. The crypto world is the same; only after massive liquidations do people remember to cut losses. If you stay in this market long enough, you’ll realize the real risk is never about being wrong on direction, but about using leverage and position sizes that can’t withstand volatility. #KoreanStockVolatilityTriggersRegulatoryIntervention, FinanceMinisterApologizesForLeveragedETF $BTC $ETH $SNDK Microsoft proactively cuts AI spending, yet surges 8.5%, the market logic has completely changed Today's market move really breaks the habitual thinking of many veteran traders. In the past six months, the market logic was very simple: Whoever dares to wildly spend on AI computing power and expand capital expenditure is the leader and will soar. Everyone was caught up in burning money, expanding production, and increasing capital investment, as if spending big guarantees future growth. But this time Microsoft delivered a reverse blow: Proactively lowering future capital expenditure and no longer mindlessly burning money on AI. By previous logic, this would be a major negative—fear of investment, slowed expansion, growth peaking, so it should have crashed. What happened? After hours, it violently surged 8.5%. Many people didn’t understand at first, even confused: Why does spending less lead the capital market to wildly buy in? Here’s the core, down-to-earth trading logic: Recently, big companies mindlessly spent on AI, pushing marginal returns to collapse. They frantically bought GPUs, built data centers, expanded computing power, but actual realized returns and revenue growth couldn’t keep up with the burn rate. Simply put: the efficiency of burning money is declining, pure ineffective internal competition. Microsoft is now proactively cutting spending, not quitting AI, but stopping inefficient, mindless, high-loss crazy expansion. The market understands the essence behind this: 1 Cutting ineffective spending → directly boosts profit margins 2 No more blind internal competition on computing power → future financial reports look better 3 Shifting from "brutal money-burning expansion" to "profitable execution is king" Now the capital preference has completely changed. No longer chasing "the company that burns the most money", now only buying "the company that makes the most money with the most stable cash flow." This is the biggest style shift in recent US tech stocks, and many haven’t caught on yet. Previously, everyone was driven by AI mania, assuming spending money = future, now capital starts to dislike high consumption, high debt, low return expansion models. Microsoft’s big surge is actually setting the tone for the whole market: The money-burning era of AI hype is over, the profit era officially begins. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% So the question is: Do you think this is the start of Microsoft’s valuation recovery, or just a short-term emotional rebound that will revert later? New on-chain funds have also started to stagnate. Without new buying, Bitcoin's ability to hold out and avoid collapse is entirely due to the 300,000 tokens accumulated earlier. Simply put, the current market support is not new buying but gradually reducing selling pressure. Currently, just focus on the 63k area for the current watershed; other levels are not very useful. The stock market has been heavily deleveraging recently, and the crypto sector hasn't followed the decline because it was cleared out in mid-month; March 2024, Ethereum 4100, Bitcoin 73000 December 2024, Ethereum 4100, Bitcoin 110,000 Why was Ethereum stuck at 4100 at the peak of both bull markets? In the crypto world, when prices break new highs, three principles are generally followed: 1. There is a strong new narrative to support it, which can be proven successful 2. The shakeout is thorough enough, with a deep enough drop 3. No large-scale unlocks In 2024, Ethereum met two of these, but the biggest flaw was the "lack of a new narrative" The bull market before March: Ethereum's mainstream narrative was L2; people believed L2's prosperity would accelerate ETH deflation. However, L2 did not bring the imagined boom because, in terms of performance and fees, Solana was good enough to use. The new narrative was not successful enough The bull market in December: There was no narrative at all, purely a narrative vacuum. Although there was an ETF, institutions were not interested. After the Dencun upgrade, Ethereum's deflation narrative failed. Daily burn volume collapsed from several thousand per day to as low as 50-70, turning ETH into mild inflation. L1 revenue dropped from over $600 million in March to $120 million in May, while L2 took 95-99% of transaction fees. The old narrative was falsified, and there was no new narrative to take over. Let's look at Solana during the same period: 1. The shakeout was thorough: from $260 in 2021 to $8.13 in 2022, a -97% drop 2. No large-scale unlocks: major unlocks will happen in 2025 3. The new narrative was strong: the memecoin cycle, and it was exclusive to it So Solana rose from $8 in 2022 to a historical high of $290 in January 2025. Any token's rise requires narrative momentum; this is the first principle of bull markets in crypto. Back to the present, RWA is the only narrative growing against the bear market trend. And it is the only narrative that traditional finance is willing to invest real money in. Leading names are BlackRock, Franklin, Circle, Ondo, WisdomTree. Those who can carry this story are ETH, top DeFi, and BNB. They basically meet the three principles currently: 1. Clean shakeout: all have dropped about 70% 2. No large-scale unlocks: DeFi leaders like Uni and Aave have long finished unlocking 3. New narrative takeover: RWA + institutional layout 🔥ETFs are being withdrawn, miners are selling, but BTC long-term holders haven't moved—who is this wave of washing? On the surface, everything looks negative: ETFs withdrew nearly 200 million USD in four consecutive rounds, Q2 spot ETF quarterly net redemptions hit the largest since 2024 products launched, mining companies sold 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 (exceeding the total for 2025), the halving cost line was pushed to $78,000, and the current price of 63,900 yuan forced mining companies to switch to AI. But on the other side of the chain: • Exchange balances continue to see net outflows, with tokens being siphoned off by cold wallets • Long-term holders (>155 days) have not moved, with no panic surrender • There are thin buying options between 63,200 and 63,500, unlike the on-chain collapse seen in 2022 So this $700 million leveraged liquidation (past 24 hours) + ETF withdrawals mainly washed out high-leverage retail investors and short-term institutions, not cyclical chips. After the halving, the third bearish tail oscillation occurs, and every time the "macro market looks end," it is usually the holder accumulation zone. Of course, if the PCE hits the charts tonight and the US dollar index rises again, 62,000 is still worth watching—but the on-chain underlining is completely different from 2022. With ETF withdrawals + miner selling pressure causing a double blow, do you dare to treat 63,000 as the cycle bottom, or wait until it falls below 60,000 before speaking? $BTC $ETH #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight 🚨 At $1,900 worth of ETH, three forces are tearing the market apart --- ETH is currently at $1,905, down 0.22% in 24 hours, and has fluctuated narrowly around 1900 for several consecutive days. The direction is unclear, but three sets of data tell you—undercurrents are surging: 📊 1. ETFs: Monthly crush on BTC, but short-term performance Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $342.9 million so far in July, far exceeding Bitcoin's $204.7 million. For two consecutive weeks, weekly inflows have crushed BTC. But yesterday, there was a net outflow of $18.65 million, while Fidelity's FETH ran $16.07 million in a single day. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock are buying, Fidelity is selling—institutions are fighting internally. 🐋 2. Whale: Sold $430 million in one day 226,400 ETH, about $430 million, a single-day whale sell-off—the most intense in weeks. But the flip side of the coin: exchange ETH balances have dropped to a nearly ten-year low, about 15.1 million. Selling and supply tightening are happening simultaneously—bulls and bears are betting that the opponent won't hold out first. 📈 3. ETH/BTC: 3-month high The ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high. After ETH fell 47.1% and BTC only 33.1% in the first half of the year, funds are shifting from BTC to ETH—this is ETH's strongest medium-term logic. --- 🧠 My judgment: In the short term, 1900 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Above, 1920-1940 is a double suppression by the 100-day moving average + middle Bollinger band; If the 1876-1885 level is breached, bears will take over. ETH's foundation is thickening — staking rate at 33.9%, monthly ETF inflows crushing BTC, and exchange stock hitting a ten-year low. But the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to 63.2%, with macro uncertainty being the biggest factor. ETH at 1900 is like a taut string—fundamentals are supporting the bottom, macros are putting pressure, and whales are dumping the market. --- Comment section: Before the end of the month, should ETH hit 2000 or return to 1800 first? 👇 #ETH #以太坊 #ETF #加密市场分析 $ETH #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ Same AI, different fates: Microsoft is making money, Meta is burning cash Here are some viewpoints on the reasons, first the AI sector has split Microsoft rose 8.5%, Meta fell nearly 7%, same track, opposite candlesticks. Why? Because the market has already chosen who they consider the leading AI players. AI is a top-tier game, not a free-for-all. Microsoft is smart, knowing AI can't be won just by throwing money at it. Their cloud business reached 100 billion, AI applications have landed, money is coming in, this is real monetization. Then Microsoft did something even smarter: actively cut capital expenditures, spending less to achieve more, the market rewarded with an 8.5% rise. Looking at Meta, revenue is 60.8 billion, up 28%, the data looks good, but capital expenditures will surge to 130-145 billion, free cash flow is at a four-year low, AI is good but no one knows when it will pay off. Here’s the key: has anyone heard of or used Meta’s AI? What is Meta’s AI? Most people go silent when asked this. The current AI market is the top players eating meat, the rest eating dirt. GPT, Gemini, DeepSeek-Claude are truly used daily; other AIs can’t even be named, unused AIs are just burning hardware for nothing, powered by passion, mainly marketed as companionship. Meta’s choice is to keep burning more and more cash, the market punishes them. Microsoft’s choice is to spend less and be a supplier, the market gives a premium. All we can say is Meta is losing big this round, an old laggard in AI, always missing the hot trends. AI isn’t impossible to do, but it can’t be forced. Direction matters far more than burning money. This round, Microsoft won big.$ETH bulls need to defend this key support or I’m watching $1,950 for a short setup. There’s a fat liquidation cluster sitting between $1,940–$1,960. Price gets drawn to it like a magnet before it decides to flip. I’m not shorting blind. Fundamentals have to stay weak. Right now whales aren’t in this bounce and CVD is still sitting at the bottom. If nothing changes near $1,950, that’s where I start paying attention. But if data turns up or the structure shifts, I’ll sit on my hands and wait. #DailyOrbit #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex @OKX Orbit Recently, Zcash founder – Zooko Wilcox – officially spoke out to dispel baseless rumors that the ZEC supply was secretly increased. The developer's affirmation reassures the crypto investment community about the project's transparency. The Truth Behind the Rumor of ZEC Supply Being "Printed More" Recently on the social media platform X (Twitter), many rumors have appeared suggesting that the ZEC supply may have increased uncontrollably. Some information even claims that users have to wait for an upgrade di chAt 2 AM last night, the Federal Reserve released its decision. 9 votes in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged, 3 votes against, advocating for a rate hike. What did Powell say? He said: "This is not a pause, this is just the beginning of the story." He said: "We will not hesitate to raise rates if necessary." Sounds tough, right? But look at what he actually did— The fifth consecutive time holding steady. The statement body only 115 words, the shortest in twenty years. The harsher the words, the softer the action. The US Treasury market gave the most honest answer—the short-end yields are falling, the long-end yields are soaring. The short end (2-year) falling means the market doesn't believe there will be a real rate hike soon. The long end (30-year) soaring to 5.2% means what is the market worried about? Not "overheating." It's "stagflation." It's long-term inflation out of control. It's fiscal deficit out of control. It's the loosening of the dollar credit system. The market is telling the Fed with its actions: we don't believe your "hawkishness." Gold and Bitcoin rising simultaneously is the harshest slap. Gold surged to 4116, Bitcoin held steady at 64000. By traditional logic, a "hawkish" Fed should be bullish for the dollar, bearish for gold and risk assets. What happened? The dollar fell 0.58%, gold rose, crypto rose. This is a "vote of no confidence in the fiat system." When investors no longer believe "the Fed can control the situation," they vote with their feet—buy gold, buy Bitcoin, just not the dollar or US Treasuries. So tonight's 8:30 PCE report is basically irrelevant. If the data is good, the market will say "inflation is stubborn, the Fed is inactive, it's out of control"— and fall. If the data is bad, the market will say "the economy is doomed, the Fed still dares not cut rates"— and also fall. PCE is no longer the touchstone. PCE is just an excuse for the market to keep selling off. The Fed's "hawk" is passive and defensive, not proactive and suppressive. It wants to raise rates, but the economy can't take it. It wants to cut rates, but inflation can't be suppressed. It's stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma. The three dissenting votes are not a sign of "hawkish resurgence"— they are a fig leaf for the Fed's loss of direction. The real main storyline has never been about raising or cutting rates. The real main storyline is: the dollar credit system is loosening. And the Fed has neither the ability nor the courage to fix it. Tonight at 8:30, PCE will be released. No matter the data, the market will find reasons to keep falling Today, South Korea's finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly. Because single-stock leveraged ETFs caused retail investors to lose large sums, they came out to bow. The top figure in a country managing money apologizing over a financial product is rare in any country. Behind this was the sharp drop in Korean chip stocks, and the 2x leveraged ETFs of Samsung and SK Hynix—the faster they rose before, the more severe the pullback. Many retail investors rushed in at high levels, only to be wiped out in a single pullback. Brothers in the crypto world playing contracts, this storyline is familiar to you, right? Spot trading with leverage: when prices rise, you think your judgment is spot on, but when prices fall, you realize it's all thanks to leverage. The hotter the market, the more leveraged tools become rampant. South Korean regulators only realized they wanted to take the tax, but it was already a step too late. It's the same in the crypto world—only after every major liquidation do people remember to cut their losses. If you stay in this market for a long time, you'll realize that real risk is never looking in the wrong direction, but using leverage that can't withstand volatility and holding positions you can't hold. #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, the finance minister apologized for leveraged ETFs $BTC $ETH $SNDK Today, South Korea's finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly. Because single-stock leveraged ETFs caused retail investors to lose large sums, they came out to bow. The top figure in a country managing money apologizing over a financial product is rare in any country. Behind this was the sharp drop in Korean chip stocks, and the 2x leveraged ETFs of Samsung and SK Hynix—the faster they rose before, the more severe the pullback. Many retail investors rushed in at high levels, only to be wiped out in a single pullback. Brothers in the crypto world playing contracts, this storyline is familiar to you, right? Spot trading with leverage: when prices rise, you think your judgment is spot on, but when prices fall, you realize it's all thanks to leverage. The hotter the market, the more leveraged tools become rampant. South Korean regulators only realized they wanted to take the tax, but it was already a step too late. It's the same in the crypto world—only after every major liquidation do people remember to cut their losses. If you stay in this market for a long time, you'll realize that real risk is never looking in the wrong direction, but using leverage that can't withstand volatility and holding positions you can't hold.🚨 The missiles are flying. Oil prices are soaring. The AI market may be facing its greatest test. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are heating up again in ways that could have far-reaching effects on financial markets, including the fields of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. The situation on the ground is rapidly escalating. According to reports, Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the two countries. The Houthis attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, disrupting one of the world's most important shipping lanes. The U.S. retaliatory strike against Iran-backed militias in Iraq indicates that the current situation could escalate into a broader regional conflict. The market reacted immediately to these developments, with crude oil prices rising as traders factored in the increased risk of supply disruptions. This price action reflects the market's assessment of the situation, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may persist and may escalate further. Rising oil prices could reignite inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. This is a major concern for growth stocks, especially the best-performing AI companies in recent years. When inflation concerns rise, investors tend to rotate from growth stocks to value stocks, lowering the valuation multiples currently enjoyed by AI companies. But most investors are looking in the wrong direction. The next trajectory for AI will not be determined by oil prices or geopolitical tensions, at least not directly. It will be determined by the spending plans of major tech companies. Companies at the forefront of the AI revolution are making billions of dollars in capital investment, building the worldUnprecedented: A country's finance minister publicly apologizes, leveraged products directly overturn the entire stock market Who has ever seen a finance minister publicly apologize for flaws in financial products? The recent severe turmoil in the South Korean stock market has sounded a heavy warning bell for all traders who love leverage. #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉 Recently, the volatility of the Korean stock market has spiraled out of control, triggering multiple circuit breakers during trading hours, causing massive losses for countless retail investors. At the core of this market storm is the previously wildly popular single-stock leveraged ETFs. During the bull market, the 2x leverage effect attracted a large number of ordinary retail investors, causing the product scale to surge several times in a short period, with retail investors holding the vast majority of the chips. Foreign capital quietly exited at high levels amid the market frenzy. When the uptrend ended, the backlash of leverage was fully exposed. Leveraged ETFs have a daily rebalancing mechanism. When the index dips slightly, market makers must passively sell spot assets to hedge, creating continuous selling pressure that suppresses the market. Subsequently, retail investors' margin positions are liquidated one after another, forming a vicious cycle of falling prices causing more selling and panic, pushing the market into extreme conditions with consecutive circuit breakers. After the market crash and widespread investor losses, regulators quickly intervened with restrictive policies to stabilize the market. The South Korean finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly, admitting that when allowing these single-stock leveraged ETFs, the huge hidden volatility risk was seriously underestimated, revealing clear policy loopholes. Regulators subsequently raised participation thresholds for leveraged products and limited retail investors' position sizes to reduce market stampede risks from the source. Many people treat this as an isolated event in the Korean local stock market, but for those of us trading crypto and contracts, the reference value is huge. The underlying logic of stock market leveraged ETFs and crypto multiplier contracts is exactly the same: during the uptrend, leverage amplifies profits, and everyone chases higher prices and adds positions, completely ignoring potential stampede risks; once the market reverses downward, high leverage only accelerates principal losses, leaving no room for a calm exit. Currently, the thresholds for various market leveraged derivatives are getting lower and lower, allowing ordinary people to easily open high-leverage positions. The lesson from Korea this time is truly worth every trader's serious reflection. What leverage do you usually use in your trades? After seeing this Korean leveraged market crash, will you proactively reduce your position leverage and adopt a more conservative approach?在X Layer上，OKB还是唯一的原生Gas代币。 后面的Exchange OS如果按路线图推进，开发者部署市场还需要质押OKB，它就不只是“平台打折币”了。 当然，币少不代表一定涨。 其实$OKB 会不会涨，真正要看的，是X Layer上有没有人用、有没有真实交易量，OKB的质押和Gas需求能不能起来。链上冷冷清清，再漂亮的模型也只是纸面故事；生态真跑起来，2100万枚的固定总量，才会变得有意思。The S&P 500 is one of the most captivating stories of 2025, continuing to defy expectations and reach new all-time highs despite economic uncertainty. But beneath this apparent strength lies a troubling reality that many investors are only beginning to recognize. More than 60% of S&P 500 tech stocks are currently trading 20% or more below their 52-week highs, revealing a market far less healthy than the headline numbers suggest. This divergence between index performance and individual stock health is one of the most prominent market dynamics in the current cycle. The strength of the S&P 500 is driven by a handful of large tech stocks that have captured the vast majority of investor capital. Meanwhile, the vast majority of tech stocks are sluggish, losing blood as liquidity becomes increasingly concentrated in a few dominant names. The numbers tell a grim story. Coinbase, once the darling of cryptocurrency and tech, has fallen 69% from its peak. The exchange's decline reflects the challenges facing the cryptocurrency industry and broader weakness in tech stocks. Oracle, the pillar of enterprise technology, has fallen 57% from its peak, indicating that even established companies are not immune to selective capital allocation in the market. Salesforce, the CRM giant, has fallen 57% from its peak, highlighting the challenges software companies face in the current environment. Strong index performance does not always reflect the broader health of the market. This is a lesson repeatedly learned in market history, but often overlooked during periods of frenzy$ICX (ICON) +6.35% ICX was developed by a Korean team and is known as the "Korean Ethereum." Today's rally was directly boosted by macro news of the South Korean government's promise to introduce stock market stabilization measures, with risk appetite for domestic Korean crypto assets surging. However, there are major fundamental concerns: ICON has officially announced that its mainnet will be shut down by the end of 2026, at which point ICX will need to be exchanged for the new SODA token of the new project SODX at a 1:1 ratio. If not exchanged within the deadline, the tokens will be reset to zero. Therefore, today's 6.35% increase is very likely a "doomsday round" speculation, where large players use positive news to push up their shipments and induce retail investors to buy and complete the swap migration. Participating in gambling is like trying to catch chestnuts from the fire, with risks far outweighing the rewards.July 30, 18:30 US Initial Jobless Claims + Core PCE Outlook #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #宏观 #Crypto Tonight's data will first focus on macro logic, not on token price levels. Core PCE represents sticky inflation, while initial jobless claims represent marginal employment changes; the combination of these factors influences the US dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk asset sentiment. Core PCE expectations have dropped from 3.40% to 3.30%. If the cooling continues further, the market will be more inclined to ease trading policies; If the rebound is higher than expected, it means inflation is not yet smooth, and Treasury yields are prone to a rebound. Initial requests increased from an expected 187,000 to 200,000. A slight warming is friendly to rate cut expectations, but if too weak, the market may start worrying about growth; If it's too strong, it will weaken the logic for rate cuts. I wait 15-30 minutes after the data and don't make the first candlestick. First, look at the direction of the US dollar and US Treasuries, then see if the crypto market follows suit. #BTC Watch 64,600-64,900 above; after holding steady, target 65,200-65,600; If 64,000 is breached, look for 63,500/62,800. #ETH The above 1645-1660 is the confirmation zone, followed by 1685-1710; If it falls below 1600, target 1565-1540. #UNI Only after a breakout above 2.90-2.95 would the target be 3.05; if below 2.76, the target is 2.65. This is solely a personal review and trading plan and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #Orbit #CryptoHotspot Analysis: Even the Fed Can't Save the Market Last night, the Federal Reserve concluded its July policy meeting, which I consider a complete failure. First, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, which aligns with my previous judgment. But more importantly, three voting members dissented, calling for a rate hike, indicating significant internal division within the Fed. It has been said before that the Fed is split between hawks and doves, and Waller is a dove among the moderates; his vote against a rate hike confirms this. The five working groups he introduced are clearly causing great internal pressure and unrest. At the first meeting, Fed opinion leader Waller openly questioned Waller: what exactly are these five working groups for? Who are the members? What impact will they have? Later, another voting member publicly opposed the reform for reform’s sake, warning it could degrade the Fed from an optimal solution to a suboptimal or even third-best solution. In short, after two meetings, Waller has not won over the internal members; instead, his move to create new working groups has angered many members. Now, no one wants to follow him in cutting rates—they are just waiting to see the outcome. The three dissenting votes were just an appetizer; the post-meeting press conference was a complete disaster. In just 40 minutes, Waller emphasized 30 times the goal of achieving 2% inflation, repeatedly stressing it must be exactly 2.0%, not 2-point-something, projecting an image of being firmly opposed to inflation. But what’s hard to believe is that, given his hawkish stance, why did he remain inactive despite internal calls for a rate hike? A Bloomberg reporter directly challenged him: you keep emphasizing price stability and high inflation, even ignoring signs of inflation easing in June. If you are so worried about inflation, why not raise rates today? What exactly are you waiting for? Then Waller said a key sentence that scared the market: although the Fed has done nothing in the past 60 days, the market has done a lot—meaning that since he took office, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, and the market has effectively done the Fed’s rate hikes through declines. This implies the Fed is abandoning its role of guiding and stabilizing the market, letting the market be the villain while the Fed plays the good guy. As a result, the market completely gave up. After his speech, U.S. stocks plunged and Treasury yields rose again. Waller not only failed to hold down rates but also lost the Fed’s credibility. What he likely faces next is an out-of-control Wall Street and the anger of his two bosses—Biden and Trump. Since Trump took office, the desire has been to lower not just the federal funds rate but also Treasury yields. If yields don’t come down, the Treasury’s borrowing costs won’t fall, and Trump’s interest expenses won’t decrease—that’s the real crux. Waller’s passing the buck to the market to hike rates on its own directly causes the Fed to lose control over the market, which is a serious risk. Another highlight of this meeting is whether there will be a rate hike in September. Waller skillfully avoided the question, shifting attention to the global central bank meetings in August, saying the situation is still unclear and waiting for the five working groups’ recommendations. However, I believe this meeting clearly shows that the Fed’s pace of rate hikes or cuts depends on the U.S. inflation trend. The key to inflation lies in oil prices, the key to oil prices lies in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the key to that conflict lies in Trump’s decisions. In a full circle, Waller, as Trump’s puppet, is passing this hot potato back to his leader, letting Trump draw the next K-line for the global capital markets. Finally, on the probability of a rate hike in September: according to market pricing, the probability has dropped from nearly 100% to 65%. This sounds like good news but actually isn’t. The market believes the Fed has passed the buck and is inactive; although the rate hike probability is lower, the financial market’s self-driven rate hikes—expressed through declines—will intensify, and market volatility will increase again. The above is purely my personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Risk is borne by the individual.Don't think that just because the interest rate meeting is settled, many people haven't fully grasped Walsh's core points. The market is always waiting for the Fed to clarify its guidelines for rate hikes and cuts, and is used to being led by policy, but Wash's plan is not to take this nanny-style regulatory approach. His approach is to let the market autonomously set prices based on various economic data, forming a corresponding financial environment, and then the Fed will then confirm the market's expectations that have already been digested. The data from the next two days is far more critical than yesterday's meeting: today's core PCE, GDP, and household balance data will be released, directly reflecting inflation resilience and the economy's ability to withstand pressure. With hot data, the market will price in a rate hike in September ahead of schedule; With weakening data, the market's main focus will shift from fighting inflation to economic growth. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will also send policy signals. As an important ally of the U.S., the Bank of Japan may further tighten global liquidity, filling the Fed's reluctance to proactively signal tightening. There is no need to blindly predict negative factors; the market has a possibility of improvement, but all data and policy signals must be interpreted objectively and responded to promptly. Rather than treating the interest rate meeting as the end of the rally, it is better to view it as the beginning of a new round of price competition. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight 代币化股票的版本太多了，但这是金融资产链上化的初期的必经之路，交易可及性永远击败法律纯洁性。 代币化股票正处于“百团大战”阶段，随着规模扩大与监管靴子落地，流动性黑洞效应将迅速清场无流量、无深度的中小型代币化平台。 挑选代币化股票时，流动性深度决定一切。SpaceX has secured a 1.6 billion military contract—can it buy the dip? Even a $1.6 billion order can't save it—is SpaceX really the next "good company and bad stock"? The $1.6 billion order rose 0.31% in after-hours trading. 0.31%。 The scene was surreal—the U.S. Space Force personally intervened, $1.6 billion poured in, and the stock price seemed unresponsive. A month ago, it was still the sexiest stock in the entire universe. On June 12, it went public at $135, the largest in history. On the third day, it surged to $225.64, with a market value surpassing $2.6 trillion, stepping on Microsoft's fist against Amazon. And now? $113. At the higher point, it was halved by 52%. Its market value evaporated by $1.2 trillion—losing an entire Tesla. Bears say: This company isn't worth that much at all. The net loss for the full year 2025 is $4.9 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026 alone, it lost $4.276 billion, nearly matching last year's total. The IPO valuation is 1.77 trillion yuan, equivalent to a price-to-sales ratio of 95 times. At the peak, the rate is 140 times. Wall Street's big bear Michael Barry bluntly criticized: "Not even worth $1 trillion." Veteran investors are even harsher: "The reasonable value is only $30 per share." ” Bears have already bet $25 billion, accounting for 32% of the circulating market. Three weeks ago, this figure was only 5% to 7%. The watchdog said: You don't understand this company at all. Starlink is expected to generate $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit by 2025. Military orders keep pouring in—just in May, 4.16 billion yuan was signed, and now another 1.6 billion yuan has been added. Morgan Stanley targets $300, Goldman Sachs $205. This is the only company in the world that can reuse rockets. A good company, right? But a "good company" does not equal a "good stock." On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked. At the current stock price, its value exceeds $100 billion. By the end of the year, tradable shares surged from 639 million to 5.33 billion—an increase of more than sevenfold. Do you think they'll keep it or sell it? @OKX planet 错过行情，只是少赚。带着杠杆追在顶部，可能是出局。 今天最大的瓜，不是KOSPI一个多月从高点回撤近40%。 而是无论在哪个市场，羊群效应的剧本都差不多。 KOSPI在2025年上涨约75%。但不少韩国散户直到股价大涨后，才带着融资资金和2倍杠杆ETF进场“补票”。 CLSA分析师指出，许多散户是在股价已经大幅上涨后才进入市场的。 翻译一下： 最危险的往往不是错过上涨，而是因为害怕继续错过，在价格最拥挤的时候放弃纪律。 币圈也是一样。 山寨行情刚启动时，没人相信。 涨了3倍以后，所有人都怕自己上不了车。 随后一次正常回调，就足以把高位追涨者和杠杆资金全部洗出去。 有时不是叙事错了。 是价格已经提前透支了叙事。 每当市场情绪极端到“现在不上车就永远晚了”，真正该做的不是立刻下单，而是先问自己三个问题： 价格贵不贵？ 仓位重不重？ 如果跌一半，我还能不能留在场内？ 市场从不缺下一次机会。 真正稀缺的，是下一次机会出现时，你是否还有本金。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Capital Abundance, Income Scarcity Ten infrastructure projects raised a total of $6.89 billion. Yesterday, these ten projects combined earned only $1,119. • $A - $0 • $flow - $4 • $zk - $270 • $0G - $3 • $xtz - $29 • $Somnia_Network - $400 • $cele - $58 • $dot - $0 • $bera - $30 • WalrusProtocol - $325 EOS is an extreme case: $4.2 billion raised, with zero income on the day. Polkadot also earned nothing. Flow turned $746 million into $4. Existing income is concentrated in the projects with the least fundraising. Somnia, Walrus, and ZKsync accounted for 89% of the total income that day, with Somnia alone earning more than the combined total of EOS, Flow, and ZKsync, which together raised $5.4 billion. The amount raised does not tell you how much was earned. At this rate, this group would need about 16,900 years to break even. A single day’s data sample is too noisy; infrastructure projects have never been blockbusters based on first-day income—the selling point is that usage will follow. But the old fallback is gone: when income dries up, projects used to rely on their tokens. That safety net disappeared this cycle, and that is the real reason for protocol project shutdowns this year.SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won bought 3,600 shares of SK Hynix stock that day. Based on the closing price of $920 that day, the total value of this transaction is approximately $3.31 million. Behind this brief news flash, there is actually a very interesting window of observation. Let's start with the deal itself. 3,600 shares, $3.31 million—for someone of Choi Tae-won's caliber and SK Hynix's nearly $100 billion market value, this is hardly a major move. It was more like a symbolic gesture. $SKHYNIX But the interesting part is the timing. Currently, the memory chip sector is at a delicate juncture. AI-driven HBM demand continues to surge, and SK Hynix, as a core supplier to NVIDIA, has seen its stock price hit new highs in consecutive days. Choi Tae-won chose to buy his share out of his own pocket at this critical moment. If you say it's just a financial investment, no one would believe it. What's even more noteworthy is the recommendation under this news: "When Hynix becomes a geopolitical asset, inheritance is no longer a family matter." This sentence almost completely exposed the underlying meaning behind Choi Tae-won's small deal. SK Hynix is no longer just a simple Korean chip company. In the China-US tech game, it holds chips like HBM and advanced packaging, and its influence has long surpassed commercial realms. As the decision-maker of SK Group, Chey Tae-won's every move, especially his equity operations, is interpreted by outsiders as signals. This increase may be a signal of confidence to the market, a way to strengthen its influence at a critical moment, or perhaps simply a financial maneuver.Over the past two days, $ETH has plummeted from 1920 to around 1820, causing many heavy bottom-fishing enthusiasts to become anxious again. In fact, this round of decline has nothing to do with fundamentals; Ethereum's on-chain activity and stablecoin inflow data have not worsened. The real reason is that Korean exchanges cooperated with regulators to clear out high-leverage contracts, forcibly liquidating large numbers of long positions and triggering a chain stampede. Looking at the $ETH perpetual contract open interest on Korea's Upbit, it dropped 15% in two days, and this round of cleanup will continue for at least another week. The price has now returned to its mid-July level, but is still far from a true halving; around 1700, a more reasonable liquidation support is likely to occur. From my observation, retail investors have accumulated a large number of long positions between 1800 and 1850, and these positions haven't been cleared yet, so the rebound won't happen immediately. When leverage returns to healthy levels—meaning the perpetual fund rate turns negative and remains for more than three days—a decent rebound will occur. If $ETH can break through 2100 in the first quarter of next year, it could be the top of this cycle. There's no need to panic and cut losses now, but it's also not recommended to blindly add positions and wait until the leverage is cleared before proceeding. $ETH #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? Many people keep asking: When will the crypto bear market truly end? Let me start with the most important point: bottoming out≠ the bear market is over; A complete end to a bear market requires liquidity + capital + sentiment to resonate together. Let's start with the current big picture: the Fed has sent a clear hawkish signal, and high interest rates will persist for longer. ETH is highly tied to US tech stocks, BTC follows risk asset fluctuations, institutional ETF funds continue to flow out, and incremental funds are absent. Currently, it is only in the mid-stage of the bear market's volatility and bottoming out, far from the moment of a full reversal. Three types of time-based simulations (highest base probability): 1. Pessimistic scenario (25%) Inflation remains stubborn, and rate cuts are further delayed. The bear market bottom continues to tug-of-war, truly emerging from the bear market and launching a new trend, with the window postponed to the second half of 2027. Characteristics: Repeated dips, rapid rebounds being smashed, any rise is just a repair. 2. Benchmark scenario (60%, I lean toward this assessment) Q4 inflation data continues to cool, and the market begins pricing in expectations for rate cuts. From late 2026 to early 2027, the final low point of this bear market is expected to be detected. But after identifying the bottom, there will be several months of sideways grinding and grinding, clearing out all retail investors holding positions. The true end of the bear market and the start of a sustained upward trend will occur in the first half of 2027. 3. Optimistic scenario (15%) PCE and CPI have fallen sharply in succession, the Federal Reserve has started a rate-cutting cycle, and US stocks have stabilized. By the end of the year, the bear market will end with a bearish decline pattern and usher in a sustained recovery rally. No need to guess the time—keep a close eye on these four core signals for the end of the bear market (more reliable than predicting the date).美国银行业协会正在推动修改 CLARITY Act，核心争议不是稳定币能不能用，而是稳定币奖励会不会让它变成银行存款的替代品。 如果限制收紧，交易平台和发行方的奖励设计可能受影响；但联名施压不等于法案已经改写。现在更值得看的是最终条文，而不是先按某一方的诉求下注。 $BTC $ETH #银行业联名施压，CLARITY稳定币条款或再生变 仅作政策观察，不构成投资建议。Surging while under pressure! Two financial reports tear apart the huge gap in the AI track. #财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, while Meta's guidance is lacking—Is the AI story diverging? Since Google's $GOOGL stock plunged due to aggressive increases in AI capital spending and negative cash flow, the capital market has completely abandoned the speculative logic of "just invest in computing power and expand your portfolio to get the price up." Profitability has become the core benchmark for tech stock valuations, as evidenced by the overnight financial reports from Microsoft and Meta. $MSFT FT delivered a solid profit report, Azure Cloud's annual revenue surpassed the 100 billion mark, Copilot's paid product was commercialized on a large scale, and AI transformed from a concept into sustained revenue; At the same time, it proactively lowered its forward capital expenditure plan and cut inefficient computing power investments, maintaining cash flow while developing AI, perfectly aligning with current capital preferences. It surged 8.5% in after-hours trading, becoming a safe haven for capital clusters. In contrast, $META, although its advertiser revenue remained stable, its Q3 performance guidance fell short of expectations, and it even raised its annual AI computing power investment scale again. Massive hardware consumption continues to erode net profits, AI business only serves internal social platforms and lacks external monetization channels, making short-term returns difficult to realize and directly facing capital sell-offs. This divergence directly extends across the entire industry chain: the previously surging memory chips and computing hardware sectors have continued to weaken as the market lowers long-term procurement expectations; $BTC, $ETH, and other risk assets are subject to taxationToday, the memory chip sector made an interesting turn in the on-chain trading market. According to transaction data from Hyperliquid's leading addresses, funds are being withdrawn from Hynix and SanDisk, with a concentrated flow into Micron. As of tonight, among the 75 leading addresses in the sample, Micron recorded a net increase of about $2.499 million, making it the only one among the three major storage targets to achieve a net inflow. Specifically, three addresses participated in opening long positions in Micron, with two of them having single positions exceeding one million USD. Meanwhile, SK Hynix and SanDisk have experienced a clear reduction in long positions. SK Hynix saw a net decrease of $1.475 million, while SanDisk was even more aggressive, directly cutting $7.974 million. Combined, the long positions withdrawing from these two stocks today amounted to nearly $9.45 million. This is almost completely the opposite of yesterday's situation. Yesterday, Micron was still in a net decline, with funds flowing into Hynix and SanDisk. Today it just dropped sharply, but Micron's trading volume on long positions increased by 90% compared to yesterday, becoming a hot commodity in the eyes of investors. $SKHYNIX Although all three stocks have fallen over the past three days—Micron down 23.3%, SK Hynix down 25.8%, and SanDisk down 32.2%—funds are already betting with their feet. Micron, relatively resilient to declines, has also become a target for leading companies to rebalance and switch stocks. $MU Holdings data also supports this change. By this afternoon, Micron's open interest had increased by 8.5%, while SanDisk's open interest had dropped by nearly a quarter. At the largest position size, 1$ETH The current market overall remains within a narrow range of fluctuations Last night, volatility increased at the Fed's decision overnight, and tonight two key data points will be released that may set the short-term direction One is the June core PCE annual rate, and the other is the number of jobless claims issued Because last night's results did not affect market expectations for a rate hike in September, still 57%-64%. Tonight's two data points may directly affect whether this expectation heats up or cools. There are three possibilities: 1: PCE below expectations + initial demand above expectations, which is positive for an upward move 2: PCE meets expectations or is slightly higher + initial claims are below expectations, leading to pressure and decline 3: Mixed results, continuing to fluctuate, waiting for the next catalyst Given the current situation, the third option is the most probable, but it still needs to be closely monitored $BTC $ETH #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight Tonight, Wall Street is not pulling back, it's a second shot. The first shot was on emotion, the second on faith. In the latest trading sessions, SPY is at 729.46, QQQ at 661.73, DIA at 515.41, all three major sectors are cooling down; NVDA is at 190.01, dropping even more sharply than the broader market. In the past, whenever the market saw the word AI, capital would be hit as if it were an acceleration button. Now, the situation has reversed: AI no longer automatically equals a surge, and AI is being pinned down by Wall Street to ask about profits, cash flow, and capital expenditures. This is not just an ordinary "tech stock taking a break." This is the market rejuvenating a super crowded trade. In the past, this line was too comfortable—chips, data centers, cloud computing, computing power—all words sounded like money printing machines. But when oil prices jumped again, when the Fed's hawks continued to loom, and bond yields swept past growth stock valuations like a cold wind, capital suddenly realized: no matter how great the story, it can't withstand prices that are too high. The most dangerous thing is never the drop itself, but "everyone wants to exit through the same door at the same time." The longer AI core stocks rise, the thicker the profit-taking positions accumulate within; The louder the shout of faith, once it loosens, the more the market crashes like an avalanche. Wall Street now feels like a casino at 3 a.m.—the lights are still on, chips are flying, but the people at the table have already started sneaking glances at the exit. But don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the market is completely over. What's truly interesting is that risk appetite hasn't completely died off. BTC The S&P 500 has been one of the most remarkable stories of 2025, consistently defying expectations and reaching new all-time highs despite an uncertain economic environment. But beneath this surface-level strength lies a troubling reality that many investors are only beginning to recognize. More than 60% of S&P 500 tech stocks are now trading 20% or more below their 52-week highs, revealing a market that is far less healthy than the headline numbers suggest. This divergence between index perform#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ Microsoft $XMSFT and Meta $XMETA's AI stories are heading in two completely different directions. The latest earnings report shows Microsoft’s Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, with the core driver coming from cloud business. Azure and other cloud services have grown significantly, and AI computing power and enterprise AI services are beginning to convert into real revenue. The signal Microsoft is sending to the market is: AI investment has entered the stage of commercial realization. On the other hand, Meta’s Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, which also looks impressive, but the market’s focus is different. Meta expects future capital expenditures to reach $130 billion to $145 billion, continuously increasing investment in AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, free cash flow has dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years. Both are betting on AI, so why does the market give completely different evaluations? The core difference may not just be technology, but the business model. Microsoft has Azure, Office, and an enterprise software ecosystem, where AI can be directly embedded into existing products to increase enterprise willingness to pay. It’s more like an upgrade on an existing business system rather than searching for a new profit model. Meta’s AI investment is more focused on infrastructure and model competition. Currently, the advertising efficiency improvements brought by AI still need time to be verified, and large-scale investment seems more like a battle for future entry points. So the market is asking one question: Is AI already starting to generate cash flow, or is it still in the stage of burning money to grab territory? My view is that Microsoft’s AI logic has higher certainty because it has already seen revenue feedback, while Meta is not without value—its social ecosystem and advertising business remain strong—but its current valuation is more about overdrawing future AI success expectations. A year of stock price increase does not mean all investments have been proven correct. The biggest risk in the AI era is not who invests the most, but who can convert computing power into profit the fastest. In the coming year, what truly determines the value of AI companies is not how large the capital expenditure number is, but whether every $1 invested can generate more cash flow. The AI race has entered the second half; the market will not only reward those who burn the most money but will reward those who realize returns the fastest. The above is just a personal opinion! Seoul originally wanted to keep retail investors' leveraged trades domestically, but ended up turning Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix into amplification for the entire market. Now, regulators must remove leverage but cannot personally trigger the next round of sell-offs. South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yoon-chul did in the National Assembly on Wednesday something capital markets officials usually try to avoid: apologizing for a financial innovation that had only been launched for two months. On July 29, South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Koo Yoon-chul responded to inquiries in the National Assembly. He acknowledged that the government failed to adequately assess the consequences when launching single-share leveraged ETFs. Image source: NewsPim On that day, the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index once fell by 12.6%, triggering a 20-minute trading halt and ultimately closing down 5.98%. On the previous trading day, the index had already fallen by 10.84%. Samsung Electronics fell as much as 14% during trading, while SK Hynix once fell nearly 20%; The latter has just announced record results and still cannot stop selling. Reuters: On July 29, the KOSPI closed at 5,663.24 points. Samsung Electronics fell 5.23%, and SK Hynix fell 9.61%. Image source: Newsis Koo Yoon-cheol later expressed regret over the government's launch of a single equity leveraged ETF without sufficient prudent evaluation. Li Yiyuan, Chairman of the Financial Services Committee, also admitted that regulators have failed to fully meet public expectations for investor protection. Reuters reported that this apology did not blame every drop on the government. It acknowledges a more specific issue: policymakers hand over a volatility amplifier to investors when the market is most excitedThe S&P looks alive, but 60%+ of tech inside it is down 20%+ from 52-week highs. 🚨 This isn’t rotation. It’s a bleedout. Coinbase -69% from the top. Oracle -57%. Salesforce -57%. The index is only green because 5 mega-caps are holding it up. Breadth is collapsing. When most tech is wrecked and the index barely moves, that’s not health. That’s concentrated liquidity. Surface strength = trap. For crypto this is a warning shot. If institutions are dumping Oracle and Salesforce, risk-off is spreading. Coinbase getting destroyed isn’t just crypto. It’s the canary for risk appetite everywhere. 🧠 Don’t trust the headline. The cracks are getting wider. Hedge, stay sharp, and do NOT catch falling knives until we get a real bottom. 💥 #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges @OKX Orbit Core conclusion: The $SNDK storage sector has not stopped falling, only a brief and slight oversold rebound. The mid-term downtrend has not reversed, and selling pressure has not yet been cleared. 1. Market Confirmation: Downtrend Continues, No Stop-Drop Structure Appears 1. Daily chart continues to decline; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed lower for five consecutive trading days, with storage ETFs plunging over 6% in a single day; On July 29, US stocks plunged across the board: Micron fell 9.94%, SanDisk plunged 14%, and Western Digital and Seagate both plunged 10+%. On July 30, pre-market storage stocks continued to open lower and continue to fall, with no signal of large-scale capital support. 2. Rebounds with no volume, rallies and pullbacks become normal. A few days ago, the brief deep V rebound was purely a technical oversold repair, with trading volume shrinking throughout the rebound and no incremental capital entering the market; After each small rebound, large selling pressure immediately emerges, with trapped and profit-taking positions continuously fleeing. This is a downward continue, not a signal for a stop. 3. Continued net capital outflow: Retail and institutional investors simultaneously reduced their positions in the storage sector, with several consecutive days of net selling of storage sector stocks; Vanda data shows that retail selling during this round of adjustments hit a record high since the pandemic, with 88% of the selling pressure concentrated on memory chips (led by SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital). 2. Two major suppressive logics have not been resolved, lacking core conditions for stopping the decline 1. Macro End: High Interest Rates Continue to Suppress, Valuation Declines Persist The Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Meeting Sent Strong Hawkish Signals: Three Members Called for Rate Hikes, Probability of a September Hike Rising to 65%, U.S. Treasury Yields Continuing to Climb. Storage is a long-duration, high-valuation cyclical growth stock, extremely sensitive to interest rates, as long as it's US Treasuries
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