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Monday Pullback? Here's Why the Market Often Starts the Week in the Red
A sea of red across the market isn't unusual at the start of a new trading week. Today's action shows major cryptocurrencies including $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, and $ONDO all trading lower, reflecting a broad-based risk-off mood rather than weakness in a single asset
Monday sessions often bring increased volatility as traders react to weekend developments, reposition portfolios, and wait for fresh macroeconomic catalysts. That can lead to temporary selling pressure before the market establishes a clearer direction
While short-term price swings grab attention, it's important to watch whether key support levels hold and if trading volume confirms the move. A broad market dip doesn't always signal the start of a larger downtrend; it can simply be part of the market's normal weekly reset
Do you see Monday weakness as a buying opportunity, or do you prefer waiting for the market to reveal its direction before making a move?
#DailyOrbit #OKXOrbitTopics #EarningsWeekAhead "U.S. Stocks Are Surging Wildly, Is the Crypto Market Far Behind?"
Recently, U.S. tech stocks have been continuously gaining momentum and climbing higher, with $MSFT Microsoft and $SKHYNIX storage sectors taking turns to rally, maximizing the profit-making effect!
Many people have started to expect that after risk sentiment warms up, the crypto market can catch up with this bullish wave.
But the reality is quite harsh. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ $BTC Bitcoin and Ethereum are still maintaining narrow-range oscillations, unable to break out of their ranges.
This round of U.S. stock gains is supported by AI performance and order data, with capital prioritizing fundamentally strong targets.
Incremental funds outside the market are flocking to U.S. stocks and are reluctant to flow into the crypto sector, as regulatory uncertainties continue to suppress the market.
The previous linkage effect where strong U.S. stocks drove a broad crypto rally is weakening.
External positive factors can only temporarily boost sentiment; without sustained buying, the rebound is hard to extend.
While the U.S. stock bull market is blazing hot, the crypto market continues to grind sideways. Can we really just sit and wait for the market rotation to arrive? #Depreciation period extended to 25 years, Microsoft capital expenditure guidance lowered
A recent detail in Microsoft's financial report is particularly interesting: they extended the depreciation period for data centers from 15 years to 25 years, resulting in the 2026 capital expenditure guidance dropping directly from 190 billion to 175 billion, a reduction of 15 billion on the books. Many people's first reaction was, "Is Microsoft cutting back on AI investment?" But a careful look at the earnings call transcript shows management clearly stating: "Apart from accounting standard changes, there is no change in investment expectations." In other words, this 15 billion is not actually saved money, just a change in accounting method — financing leases previously counted as capital expenditure are now operating leases and not included, but data centers still need to be built, and chips still need to be purchased.
More importantly, this "disappearance" of 15 billion hides Microsoft's confidence. In the same call, they announced Azure cloud service revenue grew 43% year-over-year, demand continues to exceed supply limits, and 31 new data centers were added. If they really had no money to invest in AI, where would the confidence to expand come from? So don't be fooled by the book figures; Microsoft's AI investment has not decreased at all, they just changed the accounting ledger for "spending."
Many think that extending the depreciation period means a longer payback cycle, and the validation of AI investment returns will be delayed. But this logic is not so simple when applied to Microsoft.
First, the basis for adjusting the depreciation period is "many years of operational data and long-term usage plans," not a random decision. Microsoft's data centers have been running for over a decade without failure, so extending the depreciation period better reflects the actual asset lifespan. Second, AI investment returns cannot be judged solely by depreciation cycles. Microsoft now uses a "subscription + usage" dual charging model: Copilot charges per user, GitHub Copilot charges per developer, and even customer service is charged by usage points. This means revenue no longer depends solely on "headcount sales" but is linked to actual AI consumption by enterprises. Even if depreciation is spread over 25 years, as long as AI usage continues to grow, revenue can cover costs, potentially shortening the payback period.
However, risks do exist. If AI chip iteration speeds far outpace the physical lifespan of data centers, a 25-year depreciation means assets may become obsolete before fully depreciated. But Microsoft has prepared for this: they have completely decoupled models, context, and scheduling tools, allowing enterprises to freely switch models without being locked into a single technology. This architectural design essentially reduces the risk of asset devaluation caused by technological iteration. So when evaluating Microsoft's AI returns, don't just focus on depreciation periods; also consider whether its business model can withstand technological iteration.
Moody's raised the 2026 capital expenditure forecast for the six major hyperscale cloud providers to $785 billion, a staggering figure, but it changes not the "investment pace" but the "investment logic."
Previously, people looked at AI infrastructure only by "how much money was spent"; now they must consider "whether the money was well spent." Microsoft is a typical example: their capital expenditure on the books dropped by 15 billion, but Azure's revenue growth accelerated from 40% to 43%, and commercial remaining performance obligations (signed contracts not yet recognized as revenue) reached 678 billion, up 84% year-over-year. This shows money was not spent less, but more precisely — every dollar invested converts into orders and revenue.
In contrast, Meta's capital expenditure was $30.1 billion in the same period, with revenue growth at 28% but operating profit growth only 8%, and operating margin plummeting from 43% to 31%. Both invest in AI, but Microsoft's money turns into "quantifiable revenue," while Meta's money is more "internal cost." Moody's upward revision is actually a reminder to the market: the AI infrastructure arms race hasn't stopped but has shifted from "who spends more" to "who spends wisely."
So don't be scared by the $785 billion figure; it is not a signal of "accelerated investment" but the start of "investment differentiation." The cloud providers that survive in the future won't be those who spend the most, but those who can turn every dollar invested into orders and cash flow.
Microsoft's "disappearance" of 15 billion is essentially an accounting change, not a contraction of AI investment; extending the depreciation period does not mean a longer payback cycle, and may even shorten it due to business model upgrades; Moody's raised $785 billion is not a change in investment pace but a differentiation in investment logic.
When evaluating tech companies in the AI era, don't just look at "how much money was spent," but also "whether the money was well spent," "whether the business model can withstand technological iteration," and "whether investment can convert into orders and cash flow." Microsoft's financial report actually teaches all AI players a lesson: true competitiveness is not about how good the book figures look, but whether every dollar invested can be turned into sustainable revenue.
This Microsoft financial report not only impacts traditional tech stocks but also sends three key signals to the crypto community:
1. The "narrative bubble" of AI tokens is being burst: many AI projects in crypto used to tell stories based on "future computing power demand," but Microsoft's report proves the market now only cares about "actual computing power monetization." AI tokens without real revenue, relying purely on financing burn, may face valuation corrections similar to Meta. Investors will focus more on whether projects have a "usage-based charging" business model like Copilot, rather than empty talk of an "AI revolution."
2. The "heavy asset" risk in the computing power leasing track is highlighted: Microsoft converted financing leases to operating leases, essentially turning "on-balance-sheet liabilities" into "off-balance-sheet commitments." Many crypto computing power leasing projects use similar models, hiding cash flow pressure with long-term lease commitments. Moody's raising capital expenditure to $785 billion reminds investors: computing power leasing is not a "light asset business," and if project parties lack real orders with demand exceeding supply like Microsoft, off-balance-sheet liabilities could quickly become liquidity crises.
3. The "efficiency narrative" for DePIN projects is entering a window of opportunity: Microsoft's report shows AI infrastructure investment logic has shifted from "scale" to "efficiency." The core value of DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) projects is improving resource utilization efficiency through distributed computing power. If traditional cloud providers' "heavy asset" model starts to be questioned by the market, DePIN's "light asset, high efficiency" narrative may gain a chance for revaluation.Robinhood has just revealed with a financial report that a structural shift in U.S. retail investor preferences is underway. According to BlockBeats, Robinhood's Q2 report shows that revenue from the prediction market (event contracts) reached $156 million, not only setting a new all-time high but also surpassing cryptocurrency trading revenue ($100 million) and stock trading revenue ($129 million) for the first time. Event contracts grew more than tenfold year-on-year, becoming Robinhood's largest single source of revenue. This marks Robinhood's transformation from a "retail stock trading platform" to a "retail betting event platform." Comparison of the three major revenue sources: Forecast market revenue: $156 million (all-time high, first time topping) Stock trading revenue: $129 million Cryptocurrency trading revenue: $100 million (down 38% year-on-year) Cryptocurrency trading revenue down 38% year-over-year — Against the backdrop of limited price volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past few months, retail demand for "betting direction" is shifting from the crypto asset itself to broader event contracts. What does the rise of the prediction market mean? User behavior is changing: retail investors are increasingly inclined to trade "event outcomes" (such as elections, policy decisions, economic data) rather than simply asset prices. This is essentially an entertainment trend of "structured betting"—more like sports betting than traditional investment. Regulatory risks rise simultaneously: U.S. regulators are paying closer attention to the forecast market—the CFTC has already responded#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
Is it time to buy SanDisk after a 45% plunge?
Don’t rush, first take a close look at these three signals.
SanDisk has dropped nearly half from its June peak, wiping out tens of billions of dollars in market value. Many are getting itchy, thinking the bottom is in. August might be a better entry point.
But this crash isn’t just emotional venting; there are several hard facts to consider first:
First, what’s falling is valuation, not fundamentals.
SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix all posted historically explosive earnings, with Micron’s gross margin hitting 84%. But the market isn’t focused on how much you earned; it’s worried about sustainability—an 84% gross margin itself signals a "cycle peak."
Second, the chip supply structure hasn’t fully cleared yet.
In Korea, there was 2.3 trillion KRW in leveraged liquidations in July, and regulators raised financing thresholds. Although KOSPI violently rebounded nearly 18% last Friday, it was mostly short covering, not real buying. The trading volume share and institutional holdings of tech stocks haven’t dropped much; chip supply congestion remains high.
Third, long-term contracts are a double-edged sword.
Samsung and Hynix signed five-year long-term agreements locking 60%-70% of capacity, with prepayments received. But long-term contracts only lock in profits when prices rise; if demand weakens, customers will renegotiate—Microchip did this during the 2021 chip shortage, voiding contracts worth hundreds of billions.
Currently, storage fundamentals haven’t changed, but supply structure and sentiment aren’t aligned yet. If you want to bottom-fish, wait until DRAM ETF turnover rates drop and retail panic selling clears.
Light positions for bullish plays are okay; heavy all-in positions should wait. Shorts can consider selling on rallies. $SNXX 3. How to interpret the BTC market (the part you care about most)
Scenario 1: No vote or direct failure at the August window (higher probability)
The market has already priced in some expectations; once these fall through, it’s easy to see a retreat of bullish expectations and long position liquidations.
But this does not mean a bear market restart: ETF funds, the halving cycle, and USD liquidity remain the main themes; the bill is just a "catalyst," not the sole determinant of the trend.
Scenario 2: Senate narrowly passes (low probability)
In the short term, this will trigger a round of compliance narrative-driven rally, warming institutional fund expectations, and a BTC rebound. But key cautions:
- Senate passage alone ≠ immediate legislation;
- Markets often "spike and then fall back on the day news lands";
- The bill itself is a regulatory framework, not a direct green light for unlimited coin issuance; medium to long-term benefits will be realized gradually, not a one-time unlimited surge.
Scenario 3: August window delayed, postponed to next year
Market sentiment will be neutral to slightly bearish, with short-term volatility digestion, returning to the original range-bound game (the 64,000/74,000 range logic you were watching continues to dominate). Anyway, don’t let these things affect your emotions and cause losses. You’ve lost before. If it goes up, it’s a gift from heaven that we must firmly believe in and always look forward.🚨 The moment everyone calls a coin "guaranteed," it's usually no longer early.
That's where most traders get trapped.
They don't buy the wrong project.
They buy the right project... too late.
The pattern rarely changes:
• Smart money accumulates quietly.
• Price starts climbing.
• The crowd notices.
• FOMO takes over.
• Early buyers start taking profits.
Take $LAB.
The breakout was impressive, but one big green candle doesn't automatically mean altseason is here.
Real trends need more than hype.
They need:
✅ Strong demand
✅ Deep liquidity
✅ Growing on-chain activity
✅ Fresh capital
Right now, liquidity remains focused on:
$BTC • $ETH • $HYPE • $BNB • $AAVE • $LINK • $PENDLE • $JTO
If participation expands, watch:
$SUI • $ARB • $OP • $ONDO • $SEI • $ENA • $XMR • $KAITO
The traders who last aren't the ones chasing every breakout.
They're the ones who stay patient and follow where the money is actually flowing.
Patience beats FOMO more often than people think.
#DailyOrbit #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
The current 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is in the range of 5.23%–5.28%, having briefly touched around 5.28% from late July to early August, marking the highest level since 2007. Since late June, it has risen sharply from about 4.9%, and the increase has not been mild.
This is not just a slight rise followed by a pullback. It has reached a nearly 20-year high, and this occurred just as the Federal Reserve maintained policy rates at 3.5%–3.75%, with three board members publicly leaning toward rate hikes. The market is voting with prices: long-term rates no longer fully follow the federal funds rate.
Why has it risen so strongly?
Three forces are overlapping.
First is inflation stickiness. Core PCE remains above 3%, still far from the 2% target. The market is increasingly skeptical of the narrative that "inflation is dead," and term premiums are being repriced.
Second is fiscal supply. The deficit is large, and the Treasury’s bond issuance pace is steady, continuously pressuring the long end of the market. When the private sector is also issuing large amounts of debt for AI infrastructure, competition for funds is more directly reflected in long-term yields.
Third is a change in the Fed’s communication style. The new chair emphasizes letting the market interpret data and inflation on its own rather than overly relying on policy path guidance. As a result, the long end is pricing itself independently and is no longer easily suppressed by "dovish expectations."
Historical comparisons are also noteworthy: in 2007, when the 30-year yield was above 5%, the federal funds rate was much higher than now. Today, policy rates are lower, but the long end demands higher compensation, indicating the market is charging extra for ongoing fiscal risks and inflation uncertainty.
Top or new starting point?
From a technical perspective, the 5.0%–5.2% range has previously formed resistance multiple times. This year marks the third test and effective breakout, with each pullback low rising higher. This structure resembles an ascending triangle breakout upward rather than a simple top formation. If it can hold above 5.2% and continue expanding, the next target area points to 5.5% or even higher.
Fundamentals also do not signal a clear peak. As long as inflation does not quickly fall back near the target and the fiscal path does not materially contract, term premiums are unlikely to decline significantly. In other words, the current level looks more like the lower bound of a "new normal range" rather than a cyclical top.
Of course, a top can always suddenly appear. If economic growth slows significantly, employment data deteriorates sharply, or inflation unexpectedly falls rapidly, the long end could quickly retreat. But based on current data, this scenario is not the main storyline.
Implications for other markets?
Rising long-term yields mean discount rates for all assets are increasing. Stock valuations, especially for long-duration growth stocks, will feel pressure; real estate financing costs will also be directly impacted. For the crypto market, risk assets are sensitive to real rates, and rising long-term yields usually correspond to cooling risk appetite unless accompanied by a stronger liquidity hedge narrative.
Conversely, if it is later confirmed that this is just a temporary overshoot and the long end falls back, that would be a cyclical positive for risk assets. Key points to watch remain inflation data and Treasury issuance pace.
The more likely scenario now is that the 30-year U.S. Treasury is not at a "top" but has entered a higher operating range. Above 5% may become part of the new normal rather than a transient extreme. The market is relearning how to price assets in a higher long-term interest rate environment. [Standard Chartered Hong Kong Plans to Announce Issuance of HKD Stablecoin HKDAP in August]
1. Many people, upon seeing foreign banks entering the stablecoin space, immediately start wildly imagining a major boon for the crypto market. However, a closer look at the model reveals it uses a B2B2C distribution mechanism and will not be directly open to ordinary retail investors. Institution-led compliant stablecoins naturally come with entry barriers, making it difficult for regular traders to participate directly.
2. It is important to distinguish between expectations and actual implementation. Currently, it is only a preview of the plan to be announced in August, which does not mean it will be officially circulated immediately. From the announcement, signing distributors, to large-scale deployment in cross-border settlement scenarios, there is still a long implementation cycle. Many funds are accustomed to speculating on concepts in advance, and just before the benefits are realized, the market is prone to disappointment if expectations are not met.
3. The most realistic point is that compliant stablecoins mainly target institutional businesses such as cross-border trade and tokenized assets. Their relevance to the trading tracks familiar to retail investors is limited. Do not blindly equate bank-issued coins with a comprehensive explosion in the crypto market. Concept speculation can drive sentiment in the short term, but the long-term market still depends on real capital and the scale of application deployment. You might not know yet
Samsung's foundry business may be approaching a significant turning point.
In recent years, Samsung's wafer foundry has been troubled by one problem: capacity has been expanded, but orders are insufficient, and machines are underutilized.
This is the biggest fear in the semiconductor industry.
Wafer fabs require huge investments; equipment, facilities, and labor are all fixed costs. If production line utilization is low, no matter how advanced the technology is, it's hard to make a profit.
But now the situation is changing.
According to industry sources, Samsung's foundry capacity utilization is expected to approach full load in the second half of this year, with current utilization having rebounded to about 70%-80%.
Around 2024, some of Samsung's advanced process lines had utilization rates below 50%.
The core driving force behind this is two words: AI.
With the explosion in AI computing power demand, the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) continues to grow, and the advanced packaging and substrate chip manufacturing behind HBM are also starting to drive wafer foundry demand.
At the same time, cloud computing giants, AI chip companies, and high-performance computing customers are all increasing orders for advanced processes.
Especially the 2nm process, which is becoming the key for Samsung's turnaround in the coming years.
Currently, companies like Qualcomm, AMD, Google, and even Tesla are believed to be paying attention to or planning Samsung's advanced nodes.
Of course, for Samsung to truly get out of losses, there is another key metric:
2nm yield rate.
Simply put, it's the proportion of chips produced out of 100 that meet the standard.
Samsung's 2nm yield is still improving; if it can stably surpass about 70% in the future, it means more major customers may truly place mass production orders with Samsung.
So, Samsung foundry's real winning move is not just "whether the factory has orders," but:
whether it can stably produce advanced processes.
If AI chip demand continues to grow in the next few years, and Samsung's 2nm and 1.4nm processes gradually mature, then Samsung foundry may be transforming from a "money-burning business" into a new profit growth point.
The market has always focused on the competition between Intel and TSMC, but don't overlook Samsung.
The next round of competition in the semiconductor industry is likely not only about chip design competition but also about:
advanced manufacturing capability + AI supply chain integration capability.
Samsung is returning to the table.I prefer to understand Amazon's $50 billion as a "cloud computing contract for the next eight years" rather than a traditional equity investment.
Many focus on the $50 billion, but I pay more attention to another figure: OpenAI's commitment to spend $100 billion on AWS over the next eight years.
If this commitment is fulfilled, what Amazon truly buys is not OpenAI's shares, but the most stable and highest-quality computing power demand in the future AI era. Cloud computing business inherently has high gross margins and high cash flow; as long as OpenAI continues training models, this money will keep flowing back to AWS.
Of course, this deal is not without risks.
Amazon holds preferred stock, not common stock, so the real equity value can only be realized when OpenAI goes public or a liquidity event occurs. If OpenAI remains a closed architecture and does not go public for a long time, this part of the book gains may be locked up for many years. Therefore, I believe the biggest variable in this investment is not how much OpenAI is worth, but how much of the $100 billion cloud order can actually be fulfilled.
If OpenAI continues to lead in the coming years, and the demand for large model training and inference keeps growing, Amazon has effectively locked in the largest AI customer in advance; but if model competition turns into a price war, training costs drop, or OpenAI starts distributing more computing power to other cloud providers, this $100 billion may not be fully realized.
So my judgment is clear: this is not a bubble, nor a simple bet, but a business deal that binds customers.
Many see a $50 billion investment, but I see Amazon locking in cash flow for the next eight years in advance. What truly holds value in the AI era is never the shares themselves, but who can continuously sell computing power, infrastructure, and generate cash.
This is also why I now pay less attention to which model is stronger in the AI sector, and more to computing power, cloud services, and infrastructure. Because in the end, the ones who make money are often not the best storytellers, but those who keep collecting rent.
$AMZN
#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元：押注还是泡沫 Microsoft extends data center lifespan from 15 years to 25 years — this isn’t accounting, it’s magic
On July 29, Microsoft released its earnings report. Revenue hit 90 billion, exceeding expectations. Azure growth was 43%, also beating forecasts. The stock price jumped nearly 9% after hours.
Everyone was celebrating.
But if you look closely at the report, one detail kept me awake at night.
Microsoft announced: the estimated useful life of data centers and office buildings has been extended from 15 years to 25 years.
CFO Amy Hood said this reflects "our operational history and the expected use of assets."
In plain English: we think data centers can last 25 years, so no need to rush depreciation.
Then what? The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was lowered from $190 billion to $175 billion.
That’s 15 billion less on the books.
But the actual spending hasn’t changed a bit.
Wait, isn’t this just changing a number?
Yes. Pure accounting maneuver.
Extend depreciation period → annual depreciation expense decreases → profit numbers look better → capital expenditure guidance "drops" → market thinks "AI spending is cooling down? Good news!"
One move, three wins.
But here’s the problem — can data centers really last 25 years?
An AI chip is replaced every 18 months.
GPUs update every two years, servers are retired every three to five years.
You tell me data centers can hold up for 25 years?
The chips inside have been replaced over a dozen generations, but the building is still depreciating?
Economist David Woo bluntly said: the AI bubble has officially burst. He’s already building short positions related to AI.
Michael Burry is even harsher — he says these tech giants inflated profits by 20% using accounting tricks. If calculated with a real 2.5-year depreciation cycle, these companies’ profitability would vanish.
What’s the most ironic?
In Q4, Microsoft’s capital expenditure was $41 billion, up 69% year-over-year. They opened 88 new data centers in one year.
Moody’s raised the 2026 capital expenditure forecast for the six major hyperscale cloud providers to $785 billion.
AI investment hasn’t stopped; it’s accelerating.
But by extending the depreciation period, the cost of these investments is "hidden" in the financial statements.
Short-term profits look good, but what about the long term?
Tell me, will these data centers still be in use 25 years from now?
This reminds me of the 2000 dot-com bubble.
Back then, companies used all kinds of accounting tricks to turn losses into profits.
Now? They hide depreciation, boost profits, and keep stock prices stable.
When the tide goes out, who’s swimming naked?
Microsoft’s real quarterly capital expenditure is $41 billion, annualized over $160 billion.
The GPUs, servers, and data centers bought with this money definitely won’t last 25 years.
Eventually, they’ll either be scrapped early with a one-time loss recognized, or the depreciation period will be "adjusted" again — pushing the problem down the road.
This isn’t asset management; it’s a game of hot potato.
$MSFT $META $GOOGL #折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 Things to Know Before This Week's Opening
Key Signals: S&P Gamma Shifts Upward from Low Levels, Market Betting on Continued Rebound
U.S. stocks quickly rebounded 170 points from the plunge after the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Gamma concentration rapidly shifted upward from earlier lows, with the largest positive Gamma currently concentrated around the S&P 7500 level, followed by 7550 and 7600, indicating that derivatives traders are quietly positioning for a push to the 7500-7600 range at next week's open.
The VIX has been steadily declining over the past three days, suppressed again below the 20 level, signaling a return to a typical volatility compression environment.
Geopolitics: Trump Claims Cancellation of Strike on Iran, but Iran Directly Denies
Trump posted on social media that a planned strike on Iran was canceled and that both sides reached a framework agreement, including full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and elimination of Iran's nuclear threat. However, Iranian military and diplomatic officials refuted this, calling it psychological warfare and a fantasy list, emphasizing no agreement was accepted, the Strait of Hormuz remains under security control, and stating the U.S. canceled the strike because Middle East air defense systems are depleted. The U.S. State Department has issued safety warnings to American citizens in the Middle East, indicating high geopolitical uncertainty remains.
U.S. Treasury Yields Surge, Rate Hike Expectations Unexpectedly Rekindled
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, the highest since June 2007. More concerning is that yields rose despite the Fed holding steady. Market traders have abandoned expectations of a September rate cut and now price in a 72% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 7% to 8%, putting pressure on real estate and consumer credit. Wall Street's confidence in the Fed's policy path is clearly wavering, making this a key macro variable to monitor in the coming weeks.
First U.S.-Japan Joint Forex Intervention in 15 Years
After the Bank of Japan sold $59 billion to buy yen, the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve jointly sold EUR/USD to buy yen, marking the first U.S.-Japan coordinated intervention in the yen since 2011 and another central bank coordinated action following the recent Korea-Japan intervention. This frequent intervention disrupts arbitrage trading rhythms, and the pressure may further transmit to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, warranting close attention.
S&P Technicals: SPY 749-750 is a Key Watershed
The 749 to 750 range above is a strong psychological and technical resistance. The overnight session is at 751; watch if it can hold above at tomorrow's open. Previous attempts to break through failed multiple times (including July 22 and intraday last Friday). A true breakout would quickly challenge the all-time high at 760.40. On the downside, 740 to 741 is short-term double bottom support; a break below would push the index down to 736 or even the recent low of 727.
Gold: Positive Gamma Returns, Heavy Bullish Flows in Options Market
GLD is attempting to form a larger bottom, with Gamma concentration turning positive again. The options market shows very clear net inflows (Call buying, Put selling), with forward targets directly pointing to strike prices of 400 or even 500, single trades exceeding $30 million. If GLD can successfully break and hold above the 370 to 375 resistance zone, it could push toward 400, making it a valuable independent observation target outside the stock market. Currently, a weaker dollar and rising bond market are positive for gold.
This Week's Macro Data and Earnings Reports
Macro data this week includes JOLTs job openings, ISM services PMI, and Friday's nonfarm payroll report, which will test the reasonableness of current rate hike expectations.
Earnings Reports
Palantir reports after market close on Monday.
Tuesday is the week's focus, with earnings from AMD, SpaceX (first reports since IPO), Arista, Astera Labs, and Kratos after market close.
I will pay special attention to AMD's earnings. The stock has been trading between 460-580, consolidating for two months. Gamma is mainly concentrated at 500 (largest), 450, and 600, but Friday's options net flow was clearly negative, dominated by Put buying and Call selling. Negative Gamma appeared at 450 and 400, indicating cautious market sentiment and a critical turning point. If earnings disappoint, it could trigger further downside.
Wednesday features earnings from SanDisk, Western Digital, and other storage/semiconductor supply chain companies.
Thursday before market open is Datadog, and after market close is AAOI.BTC🔥 Counterattack Horn: ETF Net Inflow of 233 Million, 65 K Bottoming to Hit 80 K
The bear market corpse has cooled, the bull hooves are digging the ground🚀
———
📍 Price Sketch
Bitcoin hovers between 65,200 – 65,500 USD, rebounding nearly 3% from last week's low. Retail investors remain nervous, while whales quietly accumulate.
📍 Institutional Blood Bag
On July 30, spot ETF net inflow was 233 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock IBIT taking 183 million; followed by a brief outflow of -265 million on the 31st, seen as a final phase of selling pressure release. Continuous inflows indicate "smart money" completed replenishment above 60 K.
📍 Macro Support
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a "hawkish pause." Market expectations for a September rate hike first surged to 77%, then quickly cooled—policy uncertainty increased volatility and reinforced the narrative of "anti-inflation digital gold."
📍 Leverage Bloodbath
Within 24 hours on July 30, the derivatives market saw a 286 million USD position wipeout, with longs and shorts both hit, open interest dropped to a two-month low. After high leverage was cleared, spot buying is easier to push upward.
📍 On-Chain Trump Card
Whale addresses holding >1k BTC increased by 37 in three weeks (Glassnode data), with 15,800 BTC net outflow from exchanges—a typical cold wallet migration signal. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to hold tightly to 844,000 coins at a cost of 75.5 K, preferring to sell stocks or repurchase preferred shares rather than sell coins💪.
———
🎯 Strategic Perspective
Short-term resistance at 68 K: breaking below previous highs without filling the gap; breaking above will ignite FOMO.
Main rally target 80 K: ETF & options "walls" focus, short delta hedges will self-ignite.
Extreme pullback 57.5 K: June low, breaking below invalidates the bull market structure.
I bet on touching 80 K within five weeks; aggressive traders can accumulate in batches on pullbacks at 62 K-63 K; conservative ones can wait for weekly close above 68 K before following.
The above does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #Crypto #First US-Japan Joint Intervention in the Yen Since 2011
What does the US intervention in the yen signify?
1. Since 1998, this is the first time the US and Japan have jointly bought yen; the last coordinated intervention was in 2011 (to suppress the yen). 2. Exchange rate background: the yen has fallen to a nearly 40-year low, with the USD/JPY rate reaching a high of 163.73, then rebounding after the intervention. 3. Special operational point: the US sold euros to buy yen, an unconventional use of dollars.
II. The core economic motivations for US willingness to intervene (most important) 1. Prevent Japan from passively selling US Treasuries. Japan’s solo intervention in the forex market requires dollars; without the FIMA tool, it can only sell US Treasuries. Japan is the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries, and large-scale selling would push up US Treasury yields, impacting the US financing market. 2. Block cross-border risk contagion. Continuous yen depreciation triggers Japanese bond sell-offs, and rising yields would transmit to the global bond market, increasing long-term interest rate pressures in both the US and Japan. 3. Trade demands. The US has long believed the yen is undervalued, indirectly boosting Japan’s export competitiveness, and there is a demand to correct this imbalance. 4. Secure a policy window for the Bank of Japan. Stabilize the exchange rate in the short term while waiting for the Bank of Japan’s subsequent rate hikes (the fundamental support for the yen).
III. Geopolitical significance 1. Symbolizes an upgrade of the US-Japan alliance, fulfilling security and economic commitments to the ally; 2. Sends a strong external signal, serving as a strategic warning to China.#折旧年限延至25年，微软资本开支指引下调 $BTC When the world's richest man says "money will no longer matter," and the head of OpenAI says "inequality will still exist" — how should we understand the signals behind this?
The tech world has been buzzing these past two days. Elon Musk dropped a bombshell during an interview with The Economist at Tesla's Texas factory: by 2036, money will no longer matter. His logic is hardcore — AI combined with humanoid robots will produce goods and services far beyond human consumption capacity. When material abundance is extreme, money as a tool for "allocating scarce resources" loses its meaning. He even predicts that the biggest economic problem in the future will be deflation rather than inflation.
However, Sam Altman is not buying it. When asked about this prediction, he bluntly said: "Clearly I think money will still matter in 10 years." Altman acknowledges that AI and robots can bring great prosperity and make many goods cheaper, but he points out a fatal problem — the concentration of wealth and power. He said plainly: "Money will not magically solve wealth inequality."
This debate precisely reveals the core value of cryptocurrency.
Musk envisions a "post-scarcity" world — when materials are infinitely abundant, fiat currency as a medium of exchange might indeed depreciate. But Altman's warning is closer to reality: the wealth created by technology may not automatically flow to everyone. The productivity explosion brought by AI is likely to benefit capital holders first, not ordinary people.
And this is exactly the meaning of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
In a future where AI and robots can produce infinitely, who defines value? Who ensures fair distribution? Fiat currency can be printed endlessly, power can be highly concentrated, but Bitcoin's 21 million coin cap will not change. In a world where deflation may become the norm, scarcity itself will become the hardest asset.
Musk says money will no longer matter — he may be referring to fiat currency. Altman says money still matters — he may be referring to store of value. When these two narratives converge in 2036, holding truly scarce assets might be the last line of defense for ordinary people against the "AI billionaire era."
What do you think? Will your asset allocation be the same ten years from now as it is today? Let's discuss in the comments. 59 billion USD bought false sense of security: When will the US-Japan joint currency intervention that smashed through 156 and the carry trade nuclear bomb explode?
This intervention won't last long.
Between July 31 and August 1, the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury jointly deployed up to 59 billion USD of foreign exchange reserves ammunition, violently buying yen in the open market, pushing the USD/JPY rate down from the 40-year high region of 163-164 all the way to 155-156. This was the first coordinated forex intervention by the two countries in 15 years, and the market was stunned that day.
Retail investors and speculators shorting the yen saw an 8-figure waterfall plunge and their first reaction was panic. The community was celebrating "The yen's plunge has finally been curbed," "The US-Japan joint strike is ten times stronger than Japan's unilateral intervention," "Coordinated intervention is the ultimate trump card, all yen shorts are doomed." Everyone thought that as long as 'Daddy America' steps in to help, the yen depreciation trend can be reversed and carry traders will eventually be wiped out.
But if you think 59 billion USD of brute force can change the global capital flow, then you have completely ignored that the underlying driving engine behind the yen's plunge has been running at full power.
Because this intervention only changed the market quotes but did not change the deadly interest rate gap between the US and Japan.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate remains locked at a historic high of 5.25%-5.50%, with the July meeting holding steady and even several board members voting against to continue raising rates. Although the Bank of Japan finally ended negative interest rates at the end of last year, its policy rate still hovers around 0.5%.
There is a terrifying interest rate gap of nearly 5 percentage points.
Why do global hedge funds and macro traders frantically borrow almost zero-cost yen to buy US Treasuries and US stocks? Because this interest rate gap offers an almost risk-free carry return. As long as this interest rate gap does not narrow, the fate of the yen as the world's largest financing currency for carry trades will not change, and any intervention is just a temporary sandbag on the dam.
59 billion USD was thrown down, but the dam was not sealed; instead, it exposed a fatal signal to global speculators: Japan's foreign exchange reserve ammunition has limits.
This is what truly sends chills down my spine.
Once the market realizes the intervention ammunition is about to run out and the yen slides back to the weak zone of 160 or even higher, all carry traders using yen as financing leverage worldwide will be forced to collectively liquidate at the same time—they must frantically buy yen while selling their US stocks, US bonds, and all risk assets to repay yen loans.
This is the so-called "Carry Trade Unwind."
In this cross-market liquidity nuclear explosion, the 24/7 always-open crypto market will be the first to be smashed through. Because among all asset classes, crypto order books are the thinnest and shallowest, making it the most convenient and fastest liquidity "ATM" for global big money during emergency deleveraging.
I personally experienced a small yen carry trade unwind in August 2024. At that time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised rates by 15 basis points, and Bitcoin was smashed from $60,000 to around $49,000 over a weekend. I was woken up by a margin call alert at dawn, got up to check my phone, the screen was all red, and I panicked so much I ran to my computer to close positions without even putting on pants. I lost nearly 20% of my principal that time. When I saw the news of the US-Japan joint intervention of 59 billion USD the day before yesterday, I felt no comfort, only chills. Because I know very well—the more intense the intervention, the bigger the crack, and the counterattack after the ammunition is burned out will be bloodier than last time.
I immediately reduced all my crypto leverage to the minimum and switched all core positions to spot, preparing for the next test of this nuclear bomb.
In the coming weeks, I will closely watch two indicators: whether the USD/JPY can hold the intervention bottom line of 155, and the monthly consumption speed of Japan's foreign exchange reserves. Once the exchange rate slides back to 160 and reserves accelerate depletion, the countdown to the carry trade unwind officially starts. Until then, control your leverage and hold your spot positions tight.
#美日确认联合购汇 1. Macro Major Suppression: U.S. Treasury Yields + Federal Reserve Expectations
BTC and ETH are interest-free risk assets. Recently, inflation concerns have resurfaced, causing the market to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remaining high. As risk-free yields rise, capital tends to flow into bonds, continuously suppressing crypto asset valuations.
Middle East crude oil volatility has pushed up inflation expectations, further reinforcing the expectation that "high interest rates will be maintained longer."
2. Capital Characteristics
BTC spot ETF capital inflows have significantly slowed, with frequent large single-day net outflows; institutional funds have shifted from one-sided long positions to high sell and low buy strategies.
The market lacks incremental capital, with the trend mainly driven by existing capital competition and leveraged funds stepping on and off, making sharp rises and falls the norm.
3. Market Style: Capital tends to avoid risk by favoring top coins, with BTC market dominance continuously rising; altcoin liquidity continues to shrink.
II. Bitcoin BTC
Core Positioning
Narrative: Digital value storage (digital gold), fixed total supply of 21 million coins, the preferred crypto asset for institutional allocation.
✅ Bullish Logic
1. The long-term supply-demand logic of halving still exists, with mid-to-long-term chip bottom funds continuously present;
2. U.S. spot ETF channels are opening, providing a compliant long-term entry path for funds;
3. Global fiscal debt and geopolitical conflicts repeatedly stimulate safe-haven buying.
❌ Bearish Pressure
1. The high interest rate environment persists, greatly reducing holding appeal;
2. Price increases heavily depend on new capital, lacking intrinsic cash flow;
3. Regulatory policies are uncertain, with slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation;
4. Multiple failed attempts to break key resistance above, gradually eroding bullish confidence.
Short-term Market Features: Range-bound oscillation pattern, resistance pressure above, with mid-to-long-term holding funds supporting below.
Characteristics: Less volatile than Ethereum, a market bellwether, and the emotional anchor for the entire crypto space.
III. Ethereum ETH
Core Positioning
Public chain infrastructure supporting DeFi, NFT, Layer2, and RWA tokenization; post-merge features a token burn mechanism and on-chain fee revenue.
✅ Bullish Logic
1. The only one combining value storage and public utility chain narratives; Layer2 ecosystem continues to expand, with long-term growth in on-chain applications;
2. The market continues to speculate on U.S. spot ETH ETF approval expectations, which would bring incremental capital once realized;
3. Network fees and burn mechanisms create native value capture.
❌ Bearish Pressure (key reason for recent weakness compared to BTC)
1. The ecosystem realization cycle is long, making it difficult to quickly convert into price momentum in the short term;
2. ETF approval uncertainty is much higher than Bitcoin, with policy expectations repeatedly fluctuating;
3. Stronger speculative nature, with a high proportion of retail funds; during market corrections, declines usually exceed BTC;
4. On-chain activity experiences periodic fluctuations, lacking sustained explosive positive catalysts.US and Iran return to the negotiating table, oil prices sharply retreat: geopolitical risk premium rapidly dissipates, $80 mark becomes critical On Sunday Eastern Time, Trump announced aboard Air Force One that, at the request of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern allies as well as Iran, the planned military strike on Iran was canceled in favor of bilateral negotiations. Trump stated that there is already an "agreement" on the Strait of Hormuz and confirmed that negotiations would officially start on Monday afternoon (August 3). Iran simultaneously confirmed progress toward easing tensions, stating that mediators are assisting in restoring the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, and that negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final stage. Key reversal point: There was a brief signal of easing in late July, but it was broken within a week; this easing is supported by formal bilateral negotiations, and its sustainability remains to be verified. Trump's "maximum pressure" timeline End of February 2026: Announced military action against Iran, emphasizing continued pressure War escalation, supply disruption concerns Oil prices rise rapidly, risk premium increases March: Repeatedly stated "the goal is near," but simultaneously threatened to expand strikes High uncertainty Oil prices fluctuate at high levels with increased volatility August 2 (Sunday): Strike canceled, negotiations announced, stated there is an "agreement" on the Strait Geopolitical easing, supply expectations restored Single-day plunge of 7.3%, premium rapidly dissipates Future key points 1. Sustainability of negotiations: The easing in late July was overturned within a week; whether this bilateral negotiation can truly advance is the core variable for the market's repeated pricing. 2. OPEC production increase pace: After the oil price decline, whether OPEC will increase production as originally planned,#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
The night before SpaceX's earnings report: a decisive bull-bear showdown that will determine the stock price's fate
After the market closes tonight, SpaceX (SPCX) will release its first earnings report since going public. This is not just a performance disclosure but a critical juncture in a multi-party game.
The stock price has dropped more than 50% from its post-IPO high, falling below $110. Bears are gearing up, with open interest exceeding $24 billion, a rare scale in the US stock market.
Let's break down what to focus on tonight:
First, is Starlink, the "cash cow," still strong enough? This is the company's only profitable segment. In Q1, users exceeded 10 million, contributing nearly 70% of revenue.
Tonight, the key metrics are user growth and average revenue per user (ARPU). Q1 ARPU was $66. If this number drops too much, it indicates that the low-price strategy is eroding profits, and merely increasing users may not support the valuation.
Second, has the AI (xAI) burn rate slowed?
In Q1, AI capital expenditure was $7.7 billion, accounting for 76% of total spending. The market expects possibly over $12 billion tonight. The money mainly goes to data centers, acting as a "contractor" for Anthropic and Google’s computing power. The key is whether there are long-term contracts proving this spending can be recouped.
Third, the "nuclear button" of share unlocking is the day after the earnings report. On August 6, the first batch of 911 million insider restricted shares will be unlocked. This volume is equivalent to more than doubling the current float, creating real short-term selling pressure. However, the market has already fallen for a while, so some negative factors have been priced in.
Operational advice:
The earnings numbers themselves may not be that important tonight; what matters is management’s guidance and the actual support after the unlocking. Morgan Stanley believes the AI business is undervalued and has set a $300 target price. But this is like a pie that needs time to prove itself. $SPCX $BTC /USDT is facing short-term selling pressure, trading at 62,655.4 (-1.45%) with $156.92M volume. Despite today's pullback, Bitcoin remains the market leader. Smart traders are watching key support levels for the next breakout opportunity. Volatility creates opportunity for disciplined traders.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead Last Friday, Trump was still shouting on social media that "the gun is loaded," threatening to launch a "military strike unprecedented since World War II" against Iran. The U.S. State Department even issued a security warning to American citizens in the Middle East, advising them to "consider leaving the area." Then what happened? In less than 48 hours, the script completely reversed. Trump announced on Air Force One: the strike was canceled, and negotiations would take place on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar collectively urged peace, and Iran also "requested cancellation." Once the news broke— Brent crude oil plummeted 7.3% intraday, hitting a low of $81.55. WTI crude fell below $80. July's nearly 25% monthly gain gave back almost one-third in a single day. What about Bitcoin? It rose. It broke through $63,000, Ethereum rose over 2%, SOL rose over 3%. U.S. stock futures rallied, and gold broke through $4,080. Social media erupted in cheers: "Peace has come! Risk assets are taking off!" Hold on. This "peace" is not so simple for Bitcoin. Breaking it down, there are two completely opposite transmission paths: Path A—Positive. Oil price plummets → inflation expectations fall → Fed rate cut space opens → liquidity improves → risk asset valuations rise. The July Fed meeting already had 3 dissenting votes. Why? Because of oil prices. When oil hits $100, CPI rebounds directly; how can the Fed cut rates? Now that oil prices have plummeted, the logic for rate cuts is reestablished. Path B—Negative. Geopolitical conflict canceled → risk aversion cools → gold and BitcoinBTC community sentiment update: speed at 0.77x, current bullish and bearish nearly balanced
Putting BTC's short-window figures together with the full-day average provides a much more complete picture than just looking at the popularity ranking.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 41 mentions of BTC in one hour at 13:00 on August 3 (China time), including 37 on X and 4 in news; the total volume over 24 hours was 1278 mentions.
Converted, the latest hour is 0.77 times the long-window hourly average, meaning about 23% lower than the 24-hour hourly average. This ratio only indicates whether discussion is heating up; it does not indicate whether buying pressure is increasing. Writing it directly as a breakout signal would be an unsupported inference.
Sentiment structure is another dimension. In one hour, bullish sentiment is 29%, bearish 32%, and neutral about 39%, indicating "bullish and bearish are close"; over 24 hours, bullish is 24%, bearish 34%. The difference between short and long windows is what’s worth tracking next.
Regarding sources, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a piece of news is widely retweeted, mention volume quickly rises, but independent information may not increase proportionally. Popularity rankings cannot tell us if each text comes from different participants, nor do they weight by account influence or capital scale.
Long-window sources can be considered background: over 24 hours, BTC had 1132 mentions on X and 146 in news. If the source ratio in one hour suddenly deviates significantly, it may be that new information first broke on a particular channel, or simply that news updates have not caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, so we still need to wait for the original announcement or the next round of source distribution confirmation.
I treat bullish and bearish as a thermometer on the same scale, not as precise votes. There is a lot of neutral content, usually just people watching without forming a consensus direction; an increase in bearish sentiment may also reflect more risk discussion, not necessarily that every poster has established short positions.
Next, we need to see if spot trading volume expands, whether perpetual contract funding rates and open interest move in the same direction, and whether liquidations are concentrated. These three data sets answer real trading participation and leverage structure, which cannot be replaced by community mention volume. If there are macro or industry events, the official original text should be checked directly.
How to know if this time we are wrong? If the next round of BTC mention speed returns near the mean and the gap between bullish and bearish narrows, this change was probably just short-window noise. Conversely, if speed increases for two consecutive rounds, news sources expand, and spot and derivatives trading also increase simultaneously, it is more likely that a main market trend is forming.
Daily differences must also be preserved. Community activity naturally varies between early Asian hours, US trading sessions, and around major announcements; a single 0.77x figure is not suitable for annualization nor for hard comparison with raw counts from another platform. Continuous snapshots are more useful than a single nice number.
So, I record BTC as "discussion has slowed, short-window sentiment nearly balanced." The official ranking stops here, with no proof that capital is betting in the same direction. If the next round improves source diversity and market trading together, then increasing confidence in the judgment will not be too late.On 2021.03.26, Bill Hwang, the fastest losing man in the world, was liquidated. He held a large leveraged position in Chinese concept stocks, but those stocks had only fallen about 27% from their highs.
On 2026.07.31, 24-year-old Wall Street stock god Leopold was forced to liquidate. He was heavily leveraged 3-4 times in AI, and the thematic fund's rise and fall was similar to SOXX, dropping 29% from its peak.
There was also the once-popular Sister Wood, who once shone brightly, but after the tide receded, many cooled off. Every few years, a certain sector surges, and at the same time, star stock gods appear, but the good times never last long. Looking back, it's actually no different from the Dutch tulip bubble.
When things are red hot, be sure to protect your profits. It happened before, it happens now, and it will happen again.
Today I stopped loss on a tech stock at the open. I bought it last Friday on an oversold rebound, but since it didn't hit the limit up on Friday, I stopped loss at today's open.Brothers, extra! Extra! Presidential media is also a big retail trader!
Trump media is even more retail than retail investors this round.
Bought 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,522, spending $1.37 billion.
Ended up selling continuously over 7 months, already offloaded 7,281 BTC at an average selling price of only $74,855.
Just now apparently sold another 2,628 BTC, about $165 million.
On paper, a total loss of $555 million.
This isn’t Bitcoin allocation, it’s paying tuition to the market, and paid a presidential-level big class fee $ETH #亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元：押注还是泡沫
There’s been big news recently: Amazon gave OpenAI $50 billion in exchange for a commitment from OpenAI to spend $100 billion on Amazon Cloud over the next 8 years. Many people don’t understand: investing $50 billion just to earn $100 billion? Isn’t that just moving money from one hand to the other?
Actually, this money isn’t really an investment; it’s more like Amazon issuing OpenAI a "compute consumption voucher."
OpenAI’s AI models need compute power the most, just like people can’t live without electricity. Amazon holds the world’s largest cloud service (AWS) and self-developed chips, which OpenAI depends on.
Most of the $50 billion Amazon gave OpenAI can’t be spent freely; it must be used to purchase Amazon’s cloud services and chips. It’s like "the supplier invests money in the customer, and the customer uses that money to buy the supplier’s products." For Amazon, this $50 billion isn’t an expense but a way to lock in $100 billion in revenue upfront, while also selling its own chips.
This isn’t a bet on whether OpenAI will succeed, but a bet that "AI needs compute power" won’t change. Whether OpenAI wins or loses, as long as AI keeps developing, Amazon’s cloud services will profit.
Many worry: Amazon holds preferred shares and must wait for OpenAI to go public to convert them into common shares. What if OpenAI never goes public? Wouldn’t the $50 billion be lost?
Actually, there’s no need to worry too much. Preferred shares are more secure than common shares. Even if OpenAI doesn’t go public, Amazon can recoup costs through cloud orders. Also, OpenAI’s valuation is already very high; even without an IPO, it could be acquired or buy back shares, so Amazon’s money won’t be lost.
The real risk isn’t OpenAI not going public, but whether OpenAI can actually spend $100 billion buying Amazon’s services. If the AI industry cools down and OpenAI doesn’t need that much compute power, Amazon’s investment would lose money.
This deal isn’t a bubble; it’s Amazon’s smart strategy. It’s not betting on OpenAI as a company, but on the trend that "AI needs compute power."
For ordinary people looking at this deal, there’s no need to understand preferred shares or IPOs. Just watch one indicator: whether Amazon Cloud’s revenue keeps growing. If revenue keeps rising, it means OpenAI is really spending money on services, and the investment is successful; if revenue stops growing, it means orders might be problematic, and the investment is risky.
1. Don’t chase the "AI concept," focus on "real profits": Many AI projects only tell stories but don’t make money. When investing, don’t listen to how "great the future is," but see if they have real customers now and can actually sell services.
2. Focus on the "water sellers," not the "gold miners": In the AI industry, companies selling compute power and cloud services (like Amazon and Nvidia) are more stable than companies building AI models. No matter which AI company wins, they all need their compute power. Ordinary investors should prioritize these "water sellers" rather than betting on a single AI company.
3. Don’t trust the numbers on paper, look for "real cash": Tech company valuations and capital expenditures can easily be beautified by accounting. To judge if a company is reliable, don’t just look at how high its valuation is; check if it has real revenue and healthy cash flow. Amazon’s $50 billion investment essentially locks in orders through cash flow, which is its smartest move.
In short, Amazon’s $50 billion isn’t foolish money but smart money that binds customers. Ordinary people don’t need to understand technical terms; just keep an eye on whether Amazon Cloud’s revenue is growing. The investment logic in the AI industry has shifted from "believing in the future" to "verifying the present." Only companies that can truly make money will survive. When talking about AI at dinner, many people's first reaction is large models, graphics cards, and robots. But today's news is not about a chat software or a walking machine, but about a chip company specializing in optical interconnects: Liangyin Technology recently completed an angel round of tens of millions of yuan, led by Zhuhai Technology Industry Group, with Zhuhai Zhengfang Group and Xianfeng participating. The funds will be used to expand the team, iterate tapeouts, and supplement equipment. It doesn't affect whether an ordinary consumer buys a phone tonight, but rather a group of later players in the AI computing power chain: GPU manufacturers, packaging factories, data centers, optical chip teams, and all application companies driven by computing costs. Simply put, the busier the front end, the tighter the data transfer in the backend becomes. Readers should check three things right now: First, Liangyin Technology was founded in 2024, focusing on silicon photonics PIC, CPO, and OIO; Second, the company stated that the 1.6T micro-ring modulator chip has completed tape-out and is still undergoing testing; Third, cooperation with domestic GPU manufacturers is in the PoC stage, and joint 3D stacking R&D is being advanced with packaging factories. Tape-out is not mass production, PoC is not an order; these two boundaries are very important. [The real congestion isn't on the screen] When we use AI, we feel that a sentence is generated into a piece of copy, and an image appears in seconds. The experience is like ordering takeout—just press a button and the food is delivered. But that's not the case in the server room. It was more like a huge kitchen there. GPUs are tending the fire, storage is preparing food, servers are delivering food. No matter how fast you cook, if the passing passage is blocked,Strategy $MSTR lost $8.6 billion in Q2.
At first glance, it's really scary.
But out of that $8.6 billion, $8.3 billion is just the unrealized loss on Bitcoin. The coins it holds dropped in Q2, and according to accounting rules, even if it didn't sell, it has to record the loss. The actual business revenue that went into the pocket was only $122 million.
Interestingly, its neglected software legacy business saw subscription revenue quietly increase by 54% this quarter, completely overshadowed by the huge Bitcoin loss that no one noticed. Even more absurdly, while losing so much, it kept buying more. In Q2, it bought another 84,000 coins, pushing total holdings toward 840,000 coins.
So how much this company is really worth has Wall Street itself in a heated debate.
Executive Chairman Saylor remains as stubborn as ever. When asked about short sellers, he said he doesn't even want to acknowledge Chanos, who doesn't understand what Bitcoin is about. Chanos is a veteran short seller on Wall Street. A few years ago, he played by buying Bitcoin and shorting MSTR, basically profiting from the premium MSTR charged, betting it would eventually narrow.
Now he was actually right. The premium of MSTR's stock price over the coins it holds has been below 1x since last November, and the extra profit layer that shareholders used to enjoy has mostly disappeared. Of course, there are optimists. Analysts at Cantor gave a buy rating with a target price of $212, reasoning that its cash position has improved and it can still raise funds, easing the biggest fears of a default.
Buying MSTR now is basically like buying leveraged Bitcoin, with price swings more volatile than spot, plus the added risk of its preferred stock and debt layers. If you want to bet on Bitcoin's volatility and don't mind extra risk, it's a handy tool. But if you just want a clean Bitcoin exposure, it's better to buy the coins directly and keep it simple. #30-year US Treasury Bonds, Top or New Starting Point?
The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.2%, hitting a nearly 19-year high, with over 5% becoming the new normal. The market is in a heated debate, with one side calling it the top and the other side calling it a new starting point.
The logic for calling the top is simple: the economy can't withstand it, so interest rates will naturally come down.
What does a 5.2% long-term interest rate mean? The 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 8%, and corporate long-term financing costs are soaring. High interest rates themselves are the strongest tightening policy; the Fed doesn't need to raise rates further, the market has already done it for them. Bank of China Hong Kong's view is straightforward — rising bond yields are equivalent to the effect of rate hikes. Rising corporate financing costs and increased mortgage pressure on residents will eventually backfire on the economy, forcing the Fed to pivot.
The logic for calling it a new starting point is also strong: global money is running short, and the interest rate baseline is permanently rising.
Goldman Sachs released a report this week with a striking title — "This is the largest capital demand cycle in human history." AI infrastructure, reindustrialization, defense restructuring, sovereign debt — four demand curves are surging simultaneously. The decades-long era of "excess savings" is ending, and capital is shifting from abundant to scarce. Mark Wilson, head of Goldman Sachs' European hedge fund business, said: "We are in the most capital-hungry investment cycle ever."
More critically, the Fed is making things worse. Since Waller took office, forward guidance has been deliberately reduced, leaving the market completely unclear about policy direction. The July FOMC kept rates unchanged but had three dissenting votes for a hike, and the market's confidence in the Fed's anti-inflation credibility is eroding. Even the St. Louis Fed president has spoken out, saying the Fed must quickly rebuild its anti-inflation credibility. If the market starts doubting the Fed's ability to control inflation, long-term rates could spiral further out of control.
My judgment: in the short term, it is near the top area, but it is not a turning point to go all in for a bottom-fishing opportunity; it is more likely a new baseline for high-level oscillation.
The underlying logic supporting the high level has not reversed. The fiscal deficit continues to expand, long-term bond supply is increasing, overseas major buyers' willingness is declining, Middle East tensions are recurring, and energy inflation remains a looming threat. These factors make it difficult for long-term rates to return to the low ranges seen in previous years.
But calling it a "new starting point" is too absolute. A 5.2% yield itself is already backfiring on the economy; continuing to short long bonds unilaterally at this level has low odds. A true trend reversal requires dual confirmation of sustained core inflation decline and clear economic slowdown.
There is also a huge geopolitical variable in the middle — the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil already surging to $96.6. Every 10% rise in oil prices pushes inflation expectations up, and long bonds get hammered again. As long as the US-Iran conflict continues, the selling pressure on long bonds will not truly end.
Reject black-and-white thinking. Short-term high-level oscillations will repeat, so heavy directional bets are not advisable. At this level, what is awaited is dual confirmation of inflation and the economy, not guessing the top or bottom.Korean stocks fell another 5%, but I think it's still too early to say the "storage bull market is over."
The most interesting thing is:
Last Friday, the KOSPI surged 17.9%, and today it dropped about 5% again.
Samsung and SK Hynix followed with big declines.
This no longer looks like normal trading; it feels more like capital trampling each other.
Now the storage market shows two completely opposite signals:
The bulls see:
AI is still crazily buying HBM, Samsung's profits are record-breaking, and SK Hynix's revenue is also at a record high.
The bears see:
Valuations are too high, expansion is too aggressive, and Chinese storage manufacturers are catching up.
So my current judgment is simple:
The storage bull market may not be dead yet,
but those speculating on storage might first be wiped out by high leverage.
That's also why it can rise 18% one day and still fall 5% the next.
What really matters is not how much it falls today.
But after this round of shakeout, whether Samsung and SK Hynix's performance can continue to hit new highs.
If performance keeps rising, today's sharp drop looks more like a shakeout.
If orders and profits also start to fall, then that is the real cycle turning point.
This also offers some reference for the crypto world:
If the AI chip sector—the strongest risk asset theme—starts to cool down continuously, high Beta assets like $ETH and $SOL will also find it hard to remain unaffected.
I am not bearish on AI yet.
I just think—the market no longer allows you to "just tell stories without looking at prices."
$ETH $SOL #KoreanStockMarket #AIChip
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 $HYPE HYPE Stuck at 52, Awaiting a Forceful Move
HYPE continues to hold and move within the band at $52, currently priced at $52.34, down 0.85% in the past 24 hours. After consecutive days of weak decline, it has pulled back over 30% from the June high of $78.
The news is mixed with positives and negatives. On the negative side: this week there are ~$22.74 million in HYPE token unlocks (although actual claims are lower than the cap), creating potential supply-side pressure; and growing community talk about the possibility that TradeXYZ is "alone" — a platform controlling over 90% of Hyperliquid's HIP-3 volume.
On the positive side: nearly all protocol revenue is used to buy and burn HYPE, with millions of dollars flowing in daily. Technically, $52 is a key support level — the 32% pullback from ATH — and since the RSI is approaching oversold territory (38-39), a technical bounce is possible.
At $52, if it holds, the target is $55–56; if it breaks down, the next levels are $50 and even $48. The short-term direction depends on catalysts — without them, continued grinding is expected.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 $BTC #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 $ETH Low circulation, high FDV, and dense unlocks—these three words together form the scenario where retail investors are most easily "gently harvested." Do you know why many coins seem cheap but become more anxious the more you buy them? The list of unlocking stress that the community has been repeatedly mentioning lately—I glanced at it: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI. To be honest, this list has grown long enough to be like a "guide to persuading people to quit." But what really concerned me wasn't the list itself, but the market's reaction to it—everyone clearly knew the unlock was coming, yet they couldn't help but bet on a rebound before the unlock and then saw the price get crushed on the day of the real volume surge in volume. This is the most subtle part. On the surface, it seems everyone is "trading to unlock expectations." But what is actually being traded? The question is, will those who receive the tokens sell immediately? If the unlocking targets are teams and early-stage institutions, selling pressure is almost a certain event; If the unlocking target is an ecosystem fund or a market maker, the price may actually be protected. The same event leads to two completely different endings, which is why looking only at the "unlock date" is meaningless; you must clearly see whose pockets the chips are going to. Looking deeper, the sentiment in this round of market has actually been split in two. Half of the people are focusing on new coins with low circulation and high FDV, knowing that this structure cannot sustain sustained growth🔥 Liquidation Heatmap + In-depth Analysis of Long-Short Position Ratios (2026.8.3)
1. 24H Network-wide Liquidation Overview
Dimension Data
Total Network Liquidation Approximately $282 million to $606 million (calculation differences: CoinGlass about $282 million, some platforms include weekend accumulations up to $606 million)
Long-Short Ratio Short liquidations dominate (62%~83%), typical short squeeze market
Number of Liquidations Approximately 54,000 to 95,000 liquidated across the network
Largest Single Liquidation BTC long on Hyperliquid about $2.76 million
📌 Interpretation: Today is a scenario of shorts being heavily liquidated. Geopolitical easing (US-Iran talks) → oil price crash → risk assets rebound, triggering a chain of short liquidations, creating positive feedback that drives the market upward.
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2. BTC Liquidation Heatmap Key Zones
Based on Hyblock / CoinGlass liquidation heat data:
🔴 Upper dense short positions (breakthrough may trigger short squeeze)
• $64,000–65,000: dense short liquidation zone; breaking through can cause short stampede, providing upward momentum
• $65,800–66,000: deeper short stop-loss cluster
🟢 Lower dense long positions (breakdown may trigger long stampede)
• $62,000–61,000: dense long liquidation zone; breaking below will accelerate long liquidations
• $60,000: psychological level + chip support
⚪ Current price zone (lower liquidation pressure)
• Around $63,000: currently a relative "vacuum zone," liquidation pressure is low, a tug-of-war area between longs and shorts
📊 BTC 24H Liquidation Distribution (CoinGlass real-time)
• Long liquidations: about $34.38 million (56.15%)
• Short liquidations: about $26.84 million (43.85%)
• Exchange ranking: Binance 32.3% > Hyperliquid 25.62% > Bybit 14.07%
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3. ETH Liquidation Heatmap Key Zones
🔴 Upper dense short positions
• $1,900–1,930: ETH short concentration zone; breaking $1,900 is key for short squeeze
• $1,950–1,980: deeper resistance + liquidation zone
🟢 Lower dense long positions
• $1,830–1,850: dense long liquidation zone
• $1,780–1,800: neckline support + liquidation cluster
📊 ETH 24H Liquidations
• Approximately $55.2 million network-wide liquidations, majority shorts
• Funding rate: 0.0041%~0.0065% (near zero and low, no extreme greed observed)
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4. Long-Short Position Ratio Analysis
🐋 Large holders/whales positions (key signals)
Metric BTC ETH Bias
Binance large account long-short ratio 1.63 (long) — Bullish
Binance large account number long-short ratio 1.79 — Bullish
OKX number long-short ratio 1.72 — Bullish
Hyperliquid whale positions Long 48.57% / Short 51.43% — Slightly bearish
Giant ETH 5x long Long at $3,147, unrealized loss $4.02 million — ⚠️ Risky
📊 Retail vs Institutional divergence (key conflict)
• Retail (1K–10K USD level): continuously buying dips spot + opening longs, sentiment bullish
• Whales/institutions (1M–10M USD level): net selling during rebound, suppressing rebound height
• ETH funding rate near zero + position volume up 2.33% → participation rising but direction unclear
🎯 Exchange long-short ratio snapshot (real-time)
• Binance BTC/USDT large holders: longs dominant (1.63)
• OKX BTC number ratio: 1.72 bullish
• Overall sentiment: Fear & Greed Index 27–28 (fear zone), sentiment bearish
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5. Comprehensive Judgment and Trading Insights
⚠️ Core Conflict
Retail desperately buying longs vs whales continuously distributing — this is the biggest current risk. The rebound is driven by short squeeze, not by new capital actively going long.
🔑 Key Price Watchlist
Asset Long Defense Short Stop-loss/Short Squeeze Point Signal
BTC 62,000–62,400 64,000–65,000 Hold above 62K bullish, break below turns bearish
ETH 1,830–1,850 1,900–1,930 Break above 1,900 confirms short squeeze
💡 Practical Suggestions
1. Upper space: If BTC can break out with volume above 64K–65K, short liquidation fuel is sufficient, follow the trend to go long, target 65,800
2. Downside risk: If it falls below 62K, long liquidation chain reaction ignites, may quickly test 60K
3. Position warning: Hyperliquid whale’s 5x ETH long at high level is already at unrealized loss; forced liquidation by large holders may trigger waterfall
4. Position discipline: Current retail crowded longs + whale distribution, not advisable to chase highs; waiting for pullback support to go long is safer
📌 Summary in one sentence
Today is a short squeeze rebound; liquidation heatmap shows upper $64K–65K (BTC), $1,900–1,930 (ETH) as key short squeeze zones; but retail long and whale short position divergence means the rebound is fragile; $62K (BTC)/$1,830 (ETH) are lifelines—breaking below immediately shifts to bearish view. Long and Short Crowding List
This set does not sort directions by rate but looks for high-cost positions and their price feedback.
$MMT current rate -0.1343%, settled -0.573% in the past 24 hours, at the 7th percentile of recent samples. Price is down, positions are also down; position retreat is a more certain indicator than directional attribution. OI contraction indicates risk exposure is withdrawing; the rate can only indicate which side has higher costs, it cannot replace detailed close position directions.
$BICO current rate -0.0922%, settled -0.097% in the past 24 hours, at the 0th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions rise synchronously, short-term is not just old positions being covered. Price and OI rise together, while the rate remains negative; this mismatch is more sensitive to shorts.
$SNDK current rate -0.0309%, settled +0.018% in the past 24 hours, at the 3rd percentile of recent samples. Decline accompanied by position expansion, selling pressure is supported by new positions, but OI alone cannot confirm short position direction. The rate has shifted from the past direction to the other side; position sentiment is being rearranged; signals become more complete after position expansion.#美日确认联合购汇
Why is the US willing to personally intervene this time in the US-Japan joint intervention in the yen? In recent years, a large amount of capital has been borrowed in low-interest yen to buy US stocks, AI, BTC, and other dollar assets. This is the so-called yen carry trade. What the US truly worries about is that if the yen keeps depreciating, the carry trade will keep expanding; and if one day the yen suddenly appreciates sharply, the concentrated liquidation of positions will impact not only the forex market but the global financial market.
Therefore, this time the US supports Japan in stabilizing the exchange rate while expanding the FIMA tool, hoping that Japan can buy yen without having to sell a large amount of US Treasuries to raise dollars, minimizing the impact on the US Treasury market.
However, this is only about controlling the pace, not changing the trend. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and Japan’s rate hikes remain slow, the US-Japan interest rate differential persists, and capital will ultimately flow to the dollar. Exchange rate intervention can stabilize short-term sentiment but is unlikely to change the long-term direction.
This move is more like buying the market a time window for an orderly exit rather than repeating the rapid carry trade liquidation seen in 2024. Going forward, the focus remains on US nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve policy, and the US-Japan interest rate differential. I'm very pleased that this article was featured in the official 8th weekly report's top posts. I'd like to briefly share the writing process with everyone. When I was writing this article, it happened to coincide with two industry giants releasing their earnings reports on the same day. The contrast in their stock movements was so stark that I thought to put them side by side to see exactly where the differences lie.
While writing, I was worried about turning it into just a list of data. Later, I found the angle of different AI implementation approaches, which immediately gave the article a clear main thread and made writing much smoother.
The main point is to express that although both companies are talking about AI, Microsoft and Meta are taking two completely different paths. One leverages existing business to help enterprises improve efficiency, while the other is betting on the future but facing pressure in the present. Actually, as long as you find an angle to explore deeply, base it on factual evidence, and bring out your own viewpoint, it works well.$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX The big divergence among the three storage giants! Micron and SK Hynix were heavily sold off by $100 million, while SanDisk quietly accumulated 36%. What signal does this send?
Today, the storage sector showed a stark contrast. According to Hyperliquid data, Micron and SK Hynix lost a combined $103 million in holdings over the past day, while SanDisk bucked the trend by attracting over $32 million, with holdings surging 36%. On the surface, the stock prices of the three companies didn’t fluctuate much, but on-chain capital movements have already revealed the true stance of the major players.
Why this divergence? External news also supports it—Apple CEO Cook publicly stated plans to increase DRAM suppliers, clearly aiming to break the monopoly of the three giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Meanwhile, the Korean stock market crashed today, with SK Hynix dropping more than 7%. All the negative pressure is piling on these two, so it’s no surprise that capital is fleeing.
In contrast, for SanDisk, only one large address added a $2.51 million long position, with no short positions opened at all. Although Micron also saw some long additions, shorts were simultaneously increasing, indicating a strong hedging between longs and shorts. SK Hynix is worse off, with whales all exiting and even shorts reducing their positions.
My view is that capital is shifting from the DRAM track to NAND flash memory. This doesn’t mean the sector as a whole is underperforming; rather, it’s an internal repricing. Today, Bitcoin also rose above $63,000, and with the entire crypto market warming up and risk appetite increasing, this kind of structural reallocation deserves close attention.
What’s next? Watch if SanDisk’s long positions continue to expand, and keep an eye on whether shorts on Micron and SK Hynix are still increasing. Directionally, avoid DRAM for now, but keep a close watch on the NAND line.
Want to catch the major players’ reallocation moves first? Hit follow, and I’ll keep an eye on the data for you. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Why does the crypto market tremble when the USD and JPY intervene together and the yen rises?
The US and Japan have confirmed joint currency purchases, with market expectations that the action mainly supports the yen and limits the continued rise of the USD against the yen. On the surface, a weaker dollar is beneficial for BTC.
However, many funds have borrowed low-interest yen to buy US stocks and crypto assets. If the yen suddenly appreciates, these funds may be forced to sell assets to repay loans.
Therefore, this news may not be bullish in the short term. Market outlook: initially bearish, focusing on whether BTC can hold $62,000.
Personal view: if it breaks below $62,000, go short accordingly, stop loss at $62,800, target between $60,500 and $60,000.
If the yen stabilizes and BTC climbs back above $64,000, then switch to bullish on $BTC
#美日确认联合购汇 #Coldcard security incident escalation, fourth wave attack warning
According to industry estimates, about 7 million $BTC have their public keys exposed on-chain, theoretically making them targets for future quantum attacks, with a total value of approximately $470 billion. However, there is no need to worry too much yet, as public key exposure does not mean assets will be stolen, because quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin private keys have not yet appeared.
What needs to be watched is that technological progress is continuously shortening this security window. Google researchers have stated that the number of qubits required to break related cryptographic systems has significantly decreased; Ethereum researchers estimate that by 2032, the probability of quantum computers successfully cracking exposed public keys could reach about 10%. Currently, laboratories can only break extremely short test keys, still far from the real 256-bit keys.
The Bitcoin community is also continuously discussing and researching related upgrade proposals:
BIP-360 plans to introduce quantum-resistant addresses, encouraging users to proactively migrate assets.
BIP-361 is more aggressive, advocating for a phased elimination of old-style signatures, ultimately freezing wallets that have not migrated for a long time. Supporters of this plan believe freezing dormant assets is better than having them stolen by quantum hackers and dumped on the market; opponents worry this equates to making decisions on behalf of asset holders and may even cross Bitcoin’s decentralization red line.
Of course, some startups have begun to seize the quantum-resistant track. American Fortress claims it can add quantum protection to multiple blockchains without changing existing addresses and automatically freeze high-risk wallets before attacks occur, but its core paper has not been published, and the technology lacks independent audits, so it currently seems more like hype.
The quantum threat is a real test that the Bitcoin network must face, not only upgrading cryptographic algorithms but also reaching consensus on security, property rights, privacy, and compliance.
We believe the Bitcoin community can properly handle this "quantum threat" crisis.#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
Korean stocks plunged 5%, storage bulls and bears signals confront each other: It's not that the cycle is dead, but the leverage died first.
On the morning of August 3, the Korean KOSPI once dropped more than 5%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plunging over 8% at the open, Hynix nearly 9% at its lowest.
Just last Friday (July 31), KOSPI surged 17.91%, marking the largest single-day gain in history, and Hynix hit the 30% daily limit—within 48 hours, it went from limit up to near limit down. The two Korean storage giants have fully demonstrated the meaning of "emotion amplifier."
There are two apparent triggers:
• Kioxia's Q1 operating profit of 1.27 trillion JPY missed the expected 1.37 trillion JPY, leading to a drop in US storage stocks first (Kioxia ADR -10%, Micron -5.9%, Hynix ADR -3.5%)
• From July 31, the margin requirement for Korean individual stock leveraged ETFs increased from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW, causing leveraged funds to exit in a stampede
But fundamentally, this is the first time storage bull and bear signals have directly diverged:
Bulls still hold strong cards
• HBM3E/4 gap of 50%–60%, HBM market expected to grow +58% to $54.6 billion by 2026, accounting for nearly 40% of DRAM
• Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron have locked 70% of new advanced capacity for HBM+DDR5, pushing consumer-grade DRAM/NAND to no growth
• SK Hynix Q2 revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW both hit record highs; Morgan Stanley even says "over 40% upside potential"
Bears just revealed their cards this week
• DRAM contract price quarterly growth rate dropped from Q1's 93–98% → Q2's 58–63% → Q3 estimated only 13–18%, a cliff-like slope
• Mobile side first defected: OPPO/vivo rejected Samsung's Q3 quotes, domestic top manufacturers followed, Huaqiangbei DDR4 single-month pullback about 35%
• Nvidia Rubin Ultra preview HBM4 cut from 12-Hi 384GB to 8-Hi 192GB, AMD MI455X removed LPDDR5X—AI side is not rejecting storage, but can't afford this much
• Morgan Stanley bluntly says: memory contract prices peak in Q4
My view without beating around the bush:
This 5% drop in Korean stocks is not a falsification of the storage supercycle, but a phase expiration of "price elasticity trading" plus a washout of leveraged chips.
HBM's mid-term scarcity is real, but the narrative of "DRAM doubling in price across the board" has reached the stage where customers vote with their feet. With manufacturers fiercely defending pricing power (Samsung DS refusing MX long-term contracts), buyers rejecting orders, and system manufacturers downgrading configurations—the three-way game means from Q3 it will be "stable price with volume growth, valuation downgrade," not "price keeps flying, stock price keeps multiplying."
For those exposed to memory like XSKHY (SK Hynix ADR tokenized), XMU (Micron), RAM, these days you need to distinguish two things:
• Underlying stocks dropped 8% Monday in Korean stocks, but XSKHY is Nasdaq ADR, partially priced in over the weekend and pre-market; don't blindly short tokens just because KOSPI is down 5%, the price gap will bite
• For perpetual 2x leveraged DRAM ETFs like RAM, volatility decay during sideways periods kills more than wrong direction; don't treat "long storage logic" as a reason to "hold leveraged positions overnight"
My personal operation plan:
1. From August 3–8, only focus on "killing leverage," don't catch falling knives; until Hynix/Samsung Korean stocks stabilize with volume, don't add to XSKHY on dips
2. If you really want to position: wait for official Q3 DRAM contract price data (mid to late August); if prices rise 13–18% and HBM shipments continue doubling, then reconsider XSKHY/XMU pullback support
3. Use leveraged positions only for earnings/data night gamma, not for "I think the cycle isn't over" passive longs
In short:
Storage is not over; the past three months have fully priced in the "AI + shortage + leverage" triple premium, now it's first unwinding the leverage layer, then discussing fundamentals. Bulls holding HBM can endure until 2027; short-term traders should survive this week first.
Do you believe the storage supercycle can last until 2027, or do you think prices peak in Q4 and the Korean storage giants will retest July lows?📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 3)
⚠️ Duplicate Data Reminder: This image is exactly the same as the previous SOL liquidation data; the following report content is identical.
According to liquidation data, short-term longs are being crushed mercilessly, but mid-to-long-term shorts are suffering a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $210,700
Long liquidations about $210,600
Short liquidations about $92.29
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $575,900
Long liquidations about $575,800
Short liquidations about $92.29
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $2,758,000
Long liquidations about $2,090,200
Short liquidations about $667,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $3,544,200
Long liquidations about $2,354,700
Short liquidations about $1,189,400
From $SOL liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with long liquidations 2,280 and 6,240 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a nuclear-level intensity of long liquidation at the start; the 12-hour long advantage sharply narrows, ratio drops to 3.1 times, short squeeze power significantly strengthens; the 24-hour long advantage further narrows, ratio falls below 2 times, showing a fierce turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze by the whales on SOL—short-term longs are targeted for liquidation, mid-to-long-term shorts are continuously harvested, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.54 million. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the reset of the global asset pricing anchor and the intense swing of market confidence—the bond market punishing the Fed, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding to the extreme under policy stimulus.
📈 30-Year US Treasury: Top or New Starting Point?
It may not be the end yet.
On July 29, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the 9-3 vote revealed internal division—three regional Fed presidents advocated for a rate hike, the first time since 2016. More importantly, Chair Powell withdrew forward guidance, completely disrupting market expectations.
Three forces driving long-term bond yields soaring:
· Fed credibility damaged: senior observers bluntly say "Powell's messaging was unclear, and the bond market reacted mercilessly"
· Side effects of US-Japan joint intervention: may require selling or pledging US Treasuries to obtain liquidity
· US-Iran conflict pushing up inflation expectations: high oil prices
The 30-year yield has surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007. JPMorgan has raised its 30-year target to 5.4%; options markets bet on breaking 5.4% before August 21. Brandywine fund manager bluntly states: "Long-end investors don't believe his anti-inflation narrative."
💴 US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase: First Cooperation in 15 Years
On August 3, US and Japanese finance ministries simultaneously confirmed joint yen purchases on July 31. This is the first joint intervention since 2011, and the first yen purchase operation since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Japan's Finance Minister clearly stated: "We will not hesitate to further intervene jointly in the future."
After intervention, the yen rose to the 156 yen per US dollar range. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said "It effectively curbed disorderly yen fluctuations," and Trump said "This reflects friendship and benefits the world economy." The last time such cooperation occurred was during the Asian financial crisis—the forex market has entered crisis response mode.
📉 KOSPI Intraday Surge 14%: Policy-Driven Extreme Rebound
On July 31, KOSPI closed with a surge of 17.91%, the largest single-day gain in history. The South Korean government announced a 20 trillion won (13.9 billion USD) capital injection into the sovereign wealth fund for AI investment; SK Group chairman unusually directly bought SK Hynix shares; combined with US-Japan joint intervention boosting the won.
But on August 3, KOSPI opened down 3.6%, intraday drop widened to 4.52%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 7.8% and 7.5% respectively. An 18% surge one day followed by over 4% drop the next day shows South Korea's stock market volatility has moved from "extreme" to "disorderly."
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core picture of the global market in early August 2026: the bond market punishing the Fed's hesitation, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding extremely under policy stimulus then quickly giving back gains. The 30-year US Treasury yield stands at 5.27%, US and Japan jointly intervene in forex, KOSPI surges 18% in one day—none of these are normal. When all three markets simultaneously show "abnormal" volatility, the old order is collapsing, the new pricing system is not yet established, and the chaos in between is the only certainty now. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 US Stock Market Preview This Week (2026.8.3-8.7)
Personal views, not investment advice
1. Earnings Reports and Macro Events Preview
• Monday: PLTR (after market close)
• Tuesday: SPCX, ALAB, ANET, AMD (after market close)
• Wednesday: SNDK, CRCL, GFS, WDC, IONQ (after market close)
• Thursday: AAOI, NET (after market close)
• Friday: US July Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
2. Core Judgments on the Storage Sector:
• After the bubble clears, the market will become more rational and will scrutinize each company's business with stricter standards.
• The real gap in data centers, with technical barriers and premium capability, lies in HBM, not ordinary DRAM/SSD/NAND/Hard Disk, etc.
• With the capacity rollout of Chinese storage companies, the US storage sector will bid farewell to the history of unilateral broad gains and shift to a differentiated, volatile market.
• Favorable outlook for MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung, which have HBM R&D and production capabilities, but the path to new highs will not be smooth and requires patience.
3. Judgments on SPCX:
• Lock-up pressure: Two trading days after the earnings release (after August 6), about 911 million shares (worth over $100 billion) will be unlocked for the first time, significantly expanding the current float and creating potential selling pressure.
• Potential rumors: Tesla is considering selling its China business to pave the way for a merger with TSLA and SPCX, but the merger faces regulatory issues and will take time; this should not be used as a short-term trading rationale.
• Current environment: Given the overall cautious market environment and SPCX's high valuation, it is best to observe for now.6 days left, $BABY is about to unlock 136 million tokens of selling pressure. Friends who jumped in during the big pump in the past two days, get off quickly:
1. Next Monday, Babylon will unlock 136 million tokens, of which 85 million are early investors', 41 million are the team's, and 10 million are advisors'. At the current price of 0.011u, that's $1.5 million.
2. Currently, BABY's daily trading volume is $4.9 million, meaning the unlocked amount next week will account for 30% of the daily trading volume. Theoretically, the market can still absorb this within a 5% drop.
But the key point is, this unlocking is a fixed monthly unlock for 36 consecutive months, meaning every month there will be new supply entering the market equal to 30% of the daily trading volume. In one year, that's 1.63 billion tokens, accounting for 40% of the current total circulation.
3. Babylon is running joint staking and cooperating with Aave V4 and others, which both increases yields and supplements liquidity. Will the unlocked tokens be restaked? I don't think so.
Although the project's joint staking requires 1 $BTC paired with 20,000 $BABY, and if the joint staking yield is high enough, some unlocked tokens will be staked and locked. But the problem is, everyone will do the math: joint staking yields about 9%, but the token has a 5.5% annual inflation, not to mention the more tokens unlocked, the more the price drops.
4. What could stop the price from falling? I feel the chances are very slim. Because it requires:
① TBV mainnet to start generating substantial real revenue;
② The official buyback and burn mechanism to truly kick in;
③ BTC to surge significantly, boosting joint staking yields and locking more tokens.
So, without catalysts, every rebound is just a window to sell. If you want to buy BABY, at least wait until the buyback mechanism is implemented.Microsoft's July 30, 2026 earnings may have answered the biggest question facing the AI market.
Investors weren't looking for another strong quarter.
They wanted to know one thing:
Would Microsoft slow its AI infrastructure spending?
Instead, the company reaffirmed its commitment to AI and continued expanding capital expenditures (CapEx).
That single message helped restore confidence across the AI supply chain.
Semiconductor and memory stocks rallied as investors concluded that demand for AI infrastructure remains intact—for now.
The bigger question isn't whether AI spending is strong today.
It's whether this pace of investment can be sustained over the next several years.
That answer will shape the next phase of the AI trade.
#AI #Microsoft #Semiconductors #Tech #CapEx #Markets #美日确认联合购汇
The whole internet has been talking about the US-Japan joint currency purchase these past two days. The USD/JPY rate has pulled back from above 162 to around 156. Many people think the US side only has a $40 billion exchange rate stabilization fund, so they feel this ammunition is insufficient.
But this game is seriously underestimated if you only focus on the amount of ammunition and ignore the real impact of the intervention.
1. The signaling effect far outweighs the size of the funds
Previously, when Japan acted alone, shorts were not afraid at all; they even treated intervention points as opportunities to add to their short positions on the yen for free money. Now, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has directly stated she will not hesitate to continue intervening, which changes the nature of the situation.
What shorts fear most now is not how much money the US will spend, but the uncertainty of when the US and Japan might suddenly crash the market at a moment of liquidity fragility. The risk-reward ratio of shorting is instantly blown up, forcing many high-leverage arbitrage positions to close to survive. This psychological deterrent is far more effective than dumping several hundred billion in funds.
2. Forecast of the next moves
162 is very likely the phase peak of this round of yen depreciation.
However, the yen is unlikely to rally sharply just from intervention alone; exchange rates ultimately depend on interest rate differentials. Intervention is only a catalyst; what truly supports yen strength is the pace of future Fed rate cuts and Bank of Japan rate hikes.
As long as the interest rate gap starts to narrow, the yen will naturally trend downward with volatility. Conversely, if rate cuts fall short of expectations, the market will test the policy floor again.
3. Watch for hidden capital flows
With the yen depreciation risk forcibly suppressed, the extremely crowded yen carry trade arbitrage of recent years will accelerate its unwinding. These funds will flow back to Japan, which in the short term will indeed put some liquidity drain pressure on risk assets like US Treasuries and crypto markets. The coming months are definitely worth close attention.
In summary, intervention is never about fighting market trends head-on but about shattering short sellers’ expectations. As long as the US-Japan joint statement is in place, shorts won’t dare to act recklessly.
Not investment advice DYOR 📊 Bitcoin Active Addresses Surge After Coldcard Incident – Bullish Signal or Just Short-Term Noise?
According to the chart, Active Addresses jumped from around 645K to nearly 1 million, one of the biggest spikes in recent months. The move followed the Coldcard security incident, which led many users to transfer BTC to new wallets.
While rising active addresses are often viewed as bullish, this spike is likely driven by wallet migrations rather than fresh buying demand. Existing holders moved their coins for security reasons, temporarily boosting on-chain activity.
That said, the event still highlights Bitcoin's strong network participation and the growing importance of self-custody. More users interacting with the blockchain is generally a positive sign for long-term adoption.
The key question is whether this activity remains elevated after the migration ends. If active addresses stay high, it could signal genuine user growth. If they quickly fall back to normal levels, the spike was probably a one-time event.
📊From a market perspective:
🔸Active Addresses ≈ 1M
🔸BTC price remains around $63K
🔸Network usage has risen sharply, while price has yet to fully react.
Active Addresses alone are not enough to confirm a bullish trend. Watch this metric together with ETF inflows, exchange outflows, and transaction volume to determine whether real demand is returning.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #CryptoQuant #Crypto #Blockchain #MarketStructure #CryptoAnalytics#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
After celebrating an epic rebound in the previous trading day, the Korean stock market today pushed back the chasing funds to their seats.
KOSPI finally closed down 5.13% at 6257.41 points; the two largest weighted chip stocks—SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics—both fell nearly 9%. This data indicates that the index decline is not just ordinary profit-taking but a concentrated sell-off in the AI and semiconductor sectors.
There is another easily overlooked figure: after a 5.13% drop, KOSPI needs to rise about 5.41% to return to its original level.
Losses and recoveries are never symmetrical.
For the crypto market, the Korean stock pullback does not necessarily mean $BTC, $ETH, and $XRP will fall in tandem; the key is where Korean funds flow. If the KRW trading volumes on Upbit and Bithumb increase simultaneously, it may indicate some short-term funds are moving back from stocks to crypto; if both stocks and crypto volumes shrink simultaneously, it looks more like a broad risk reduction rather than a simple rotation of funds.
I will focus on three areas: whether $BTC can stabilize risk appetite, whether $ETH can keep up with the rebound pace, and whether the $XRP/KRW pair favored by Korean traders suddenly shows volume spikes. The first two reflect global fund sentiment, while the latter is closer to local Korean sentiment.
The most dangerous thing now is not the 5% drop in Korean stocks, but the clearly increased volatility—first a sharp rise, then a big fall. Such a market will continuously create the illusion of "bottom fishing" and cause those chasing highs to repeatedly buy in.
This is purely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.The most dangerous traders are not the novices chasing highs, but the "smart ones" who just took profits and can't resist adding positions again. 🎯 Once greed takes over, profits turn into fuel for leverage.
📉 $BTC still dominates the overall market. Holding 63,700 is the bottom line; once broken, the market will enter a volatile zone. Note that a rapid surge in altcoins is not necessarily an opportunity but more like bait set for leveraged longs. Breaking below 62,700 will trigger mass liquidation of short-term long positions; breaking below 62,500 will lead to targeted sweeps of high-leverage 20x/50x positions.
⛓️ $ETH's key range is 1,620–1,650. Failure to hold above 1,650 will weaken overall altcoin momentum; once 1,620 is lost, market confidence in alts will quickly collapse.
🔍 Core watchlist:
👉 $SOL: If it falls below 80, stop betting on high Beta alt rebounds;
👉 $BNB: If it breaks 580, overall risk appetite is rapidly contracting;
👉 $DOGE: If it drops below 0.071, then Meme markets like $PE $WIF $BONK will purely rely on sentiment and could disconnect at any time.
📡 Narratives worth monitoring: $WLD, $TAO, $KAITO, $ZEC, $HYPE, $ENA. But remember: a good story#美日确认联合购汇 The real focus of the market is not the phrase "joint currency purchase" itself, but the underlying capital logic behind it.
When the US and Japan confirm joint currency purchases, it essentially means both sides are starting to coordinate in the foreign exchange market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. This sends a signal: major economies are beginning to place greater emphasis on financial market stability rather than allowing exchange rates to fluctuate freely.
For the market, this will have several impacts:
1. Expectations for dollar liquidity may change. Once foreign exchange intervention increases, capital will reassess the allocation direction of the dollar, yen, and global capital.
2. The pricing logic of risk assets will also adjust. Whether it’s US stocks or the crypto market, what truly drives the market is not the news itself, but whether the news changes capital flows.
3. Don’t just focus on the news. After every major policy announcement, the market first trades on expectations, then on reality. If capital does not continue to flow in, even the best news may only be an emotional catalyst; conversely, if capital continues to position, even bland news can quietly unfold a trend.
My trading increasingly leans toward one principle:
News creates volatility, capital determines the trend.
Therefore, rather than debating whether this news is bullish or bearish, I am more concerned about whether new correlations emerge in the coming days among the dollar index, US Treasury yields, yen exchange rate, and risk assets.
Do you think the US-Japan joint currency purchase is merely about stabilizing exchange rates, or is it the beginning of a new phase of global liquidity?#Korean stocks plunge 5%, storage sector sees conflicting bullish and bearish signals
KOSPI fell more than 5% intraday, led down by Samsung and SK Hynix, with the storage sector once again caught in intense divergence. On one side, AI computing power continues to require HBM support demand; on the other, concerns arise that the storage price hike cycle is nearing its end, bringing the bull-bear battle to a critical window.
First, clarify the two main triggers for the decline:
1. A large amount of profit-taking accumulated from the recent short-term surge, combined with tightened regulation on Korean leveraged ETFs, causing leveraged funds to flee en masse and amplifying the correction;
2. The market begins to price in risks: downstream terminals resist continuous price increases, the slope of storage contract price rises slows, and funds worry that the boom is peaking early.
Core logic of the two camps:
Bullish view:
The global AI computing power expansion cycle is not over, and HBM demand remains rigid; industry capital expenditure is restrained, supply will not flood quickly, and the mid-to-long-term price base remains high, making any pullback a buying opportunity.
Bearish view:
Storage performance is already at the cycle peak, with expectations overly priced in. Once price increases slow, valuations will quickly adjust downward; this round of gains was driven by leverage, and the deleveraging phase's pullback should not be underestimated.
My view is that it is not simple to declare the end of the storage bull market, but the reality must be recognized: the broad rally phase is over, entering a period of intense volatility and divergence.
Short-term fluctuations are mostly emotional sell-offs caused by leveraged fund outflows and do not yet signal a fundamental reversal.
However, beware of chain emotional transmission: storage is a global AI hardware sentiment barometer; if it continues to weaken, it will suppress risk appetite for Nasdaq growth stocks and indirectly drag down BTC and ETH.
Do not rush to bottom-fish or bet on a rebound; wait for selling pressure to be fully released and stabilization signals to appear;
Distinguish targets: the elasticity of general storage purely speculating on cyclical price hikes is weakening, while targets tied to AI high-bandwidth memory show stronger resilience.
Key observations mapped to the crypto market:
Will panic in Korean stocks spread to the US semiconductor sector?
If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakens simultaneously, it will be difficult for risk assets to sustain an independent bull market.