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On 2021.03.26, Bill Hwang, the fastest losing man in the world, was liquidated. He held a large leveraged position in Chinese concept stocks, but those stocks had only fallen about 27% from their highs.
On 2026.07.31, 24-year-old Wall Street stock god Leopold was forced to liquidate. He was heavily leveraged 3-4 times in AI, and the thematic fund's rise and fall was similar to SOXX, dropping 29% from its peak.
There was also the once-popular Sister Wood, who once shone brightly, but after the tide receded, many cooled off. Every few years, a certain sector surges, and at the same time, star stock gods appear, but the good times never last long. Looking back, it's actually no different from the Dutch tulip bubble.
When things are red hot, be sure to protect your profits. It happened before, it happens now, and it will happen again.
Today I stopped loss on a tech stock at the open. I bought it last Friday on an oversold rebound, but since it didn't hit the limit up on Friday, I stopped loss at today's open.Brothers, extra! Extra! Presidential media is also a big retail trader!
Trump media is even more retail than retail investors this round.
Bought 11,542 BTC at an average price of $118,522, spending $1.37 billion.
Ended up selling continuously over 7 months, already offloaded 7,281 BTC at an average selling price of only $74,855.
Just now apparently sold another 2,628 BTC, about $165 million.
On paper, a total loss of $555 million.
This isn’t Bitcoin allocation, it’s paying tuition to the market, and paid a presidential-level big class fee $ETH #亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元：押注还是泡沫
There’s been big news recently: Amazon gave OpenAI $50 billion in exchange for a commitment from OpenAI to spend $100 billion on Amazon Cloud over the next 8 years. Many people don’t understand: investing $50 billion just to earn $100 billion? Isn’t that just moving money from one hand to the other?
Actually, this money isn’t really an investment; it’s more like Amazon issuing OpenAI a "compute consumption voucher."
OpenAI’s AI models need compute power the most, just like people can’t live without electricity. Amazon holds the world’s largest cloud service (AWS) and self-developed chips, which OpenAI depends on.
Most of the $50 billion Amazon gave OpenAI can’t be spent freely; it must be used to purchase Amazon’s cloud services and chips. It’s like "the supplier invests money in the customer, and the customer uses that money to buy the supplier’s products." For Amazon, this $50 billion isn’t an expense but a way to lock in $100 billion in revenue upfront, while also selling its own chips.
This isn’t a bet on whether OpenAI will succeed, but a bet that "AI needs compute power" won’t change. Whether OpenAI wins or loses, as long as AI keeps developing, Amazon’s cloud services will profit.
Many worry: Amazon holds preferred shares and must wait for OpenAI to go public to convert them into common shares. What if OpenAI never goes public? Wouldn’t the $50 billion be lost?
Actually, there’s no need to worry too much. Preferred shares are more secure than common shares. Even if OpenAI doesn’t go public, Amazon can recoup costs through cloud orders. Also, OpenAI’s valuation is already very high; even without an IPO, it could be acquired or buy back shares, so Amazon’s money won’t be lost.
The real risk isn’t OpenAI not going public, but whether OpenAI can actually spend $100 billion buying Amazon’s services. If the AI industry cools down and OpenAI doesn’t need that much compute power, Amazon’s investment would lose money.
This deal isn’t a bubble; it’s Amazon’s smart strategy. It’s not betting on OpenAI as a company, but on the trend that "AI needs compute power."
For ordinary people looking at this deal, there’s no need to understand preferred shares or IPOs. Just watch one indicator: whether Amazon Cloud’s revenue keeps growing. If revenue keeps rising, it means OpenAI is really spending money on services, and the investment is successful; if revenue stops growing, it means orders might be problematic, and the investment is risky.
1. Don’t chase the "AI concept," focus on "real profits": Many AI projects only tell stories but don’t make money. When investing, don’t listen to how "great the future is," but see if they have real customers now and can actually sell services.
2. Focus on the "water sellers," not the "gold miners": In the AI industry, companies selling compute power and cloud services (like Amazon and Nvidia) are more stable than companies building AI models. No matter which AI company wins, they all need their compute power. Ordinary investors should prioritize these "water sellers" rather than betting on a single AI company.
3. Don’t trust the numbers on paper, look for "real cash": Tech company valuations and capital expenditures can easily be beautified by accounting. To judge if a company is reliable, don’t just look at how high its valuation is; check if it has real revenue and healthy cash flow. Amazon’s $50 billion investment essentially locks in orders through cash flow, which is its smartest move.
In short, Amazon’s $50 billion isn’t foolish money but smart money that binds customers. Ordinary people don’t need to understand technical terms; just keep an eye on whether Amazon Cloud’s revenue is growing. The investment logic in the AI industry has shifted from "believing in the future" to "verifying the present." Only companies that can truly make money will survive. When talking about AI at dinner, many people's first reaction is large models, graphics cards, and robots. But today's news is not about a chat software or a walking machine, but about a chip company specializing in optical interconnects: Liangyin Technology recently completed an angel round of tens of millions of yuan, led by Zhuhai Technology Industry Group, with Zhuhai Zhengfang Group and Xianfeng participating. The funds will be used to expand the team, iterate tapeouts, and supplement equipment. It doesn't affect whether an ordinary consumer buys a phone tonight, but rather a group of later players in the AI computing power chain: GPU manufacturers, packaging factories, data centers, optical chip teams, and all application companies driven by computing costs. Simply put, the busier the front end, the tighter the data transfer in the backend becomes. Readers should check three things right now: First, Liangyin Technology was founded in 2024, focusing on silicon photonics PIC, CPO, and OIO; Second, the company stated that the 1.6T micro-ring modulator chip has completed tape-out and is still undergoing testing; Third, cooperation with domestic GPU manufacturers is in the PoC stage, and joint 3D stacking R&D is being advanced with packaging factories. Tape-out is not mass production, PoC is not an order; these two boundaries are very important. [The real congestion isn't on the screen] When we use AI, we feel that a sentence is generated into a piece of copy, and an image appears in seconds. The experience is like ordering takeout—just press a button and the food is delivered. But that's not the case in the server room. It was more like a huge kitchen there. GPUs are tending the fire, storage is preparing food, servers are delivering food. No matter how fast you cook, if the passing passage is blocked,Strategy $MSTR lost $8.6 billion in Q2.
At first glance, it's really scary.
But out of that $8.6 billion, $8.3 billion is just the unrealized loss on Bitcoin. The coins it holds dropped in Q2, and according to accounting rules, even if it didn't sell, it has to record the loss. The actual business revenue that went into the pocket was only $122 million.
Interestingly, its neglected software legacy business saw subscription revenue quietly increase by 54% this quarter, completely overshadowed by the huge Bitcoin loss that no one noticed. Even more absurdly, while losing so much, it kept buying more. In Q2, it bought another 84,000 coins, pushing total holdings toward 840,000 coins.
So how much this company is really worth has Wall Street itself in a heated debate.
Executive Chairman Saylor remains as stubborn as ever. When asked about short sellers, he said he doesn't even want to acknowledge Chanos, who doesn't understand what Bitcoin is about. Chanos is a veteran short seller on Wall Street. A few years ago, he played by buying Bitcoin and shorting MSTR, basically profiting from the premium MSTR charged, betting it would eventually narrow.
Now he was actually right. The premium of MSTR's stock price over the coins it holds has been below 1x since last November, and the extra profit layer that shareholders used to enjoy has mostly disappeared. Of course, there are optimists. Analysts at Cantor gave a buy rating with a target price of $212, reasoning that its cash position has improved and it can still raise funds, easing the biggest fears of a default.
Buying MSTR now is basically like buying leveraged Bitcoin, with price swings more volatile than spot, plus the added risk of its preferred stock and debt layers. If you want to bet on Bitcoin's volatility and don't mind extra risk, it's a handy tool. But if you just want a clean Bitcoin exposure, it's better to buy the coins directly and keep it simple. #30-year US Treasury Bonds, Top or New Starting Point?
The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.2%, hitting a nearly 19-year high, with over 5% becoming the new normal. The market is in a heated debate, with one side calling it the top and the other side calling it a new starting point.
The logic for calling the top is simple: the economy can't withstand it, so interest rates will naturally come down.
What does a 5.2% long-term interest rate mean? The 30-year mortgage rate is approaching 8%, and corporate long-term financing costs are soaring. High interest rates themselves are the strongest tightening policy; the Fed doesn't need to raise rates further, the market has already done it for them. Bank of China Hong Kong's view is straightforward — rising bond yields are equivalent to the effect of rate hikes. Rising corporate financing costs and increased mortgage pressure on residents will eventually backfire on the economy, forcing the Fed to pivot.
The logic for calling it a new starting point is also strong: global money is running short, and the interest rate baseline is permanently rising.
Goldman Sachs released a report this week with a striking title — "This is the largest capital demand cycle in human history." AI infrastructure, reindustrialization, defense restructuring, sovereign debt — four demand curves are surging simultaneously. The decades-long era of "excess savings" is ending, and capital is shifting from abundant to scarce. Mark Wilson, head of Goldman Sachs' European hedge fund business, said: "We are in the most capital-hungry investment cycle ever."
More critically, the Fed is making things worse. Since Waller took office, forward guidance has been deliberately reduced, leaving the market completely unclear about policy direction. The July FOMC kept rates unchanged but had three dissenting votes for a hike, and the market's confidence in the Fed's anti-inflation credibility is eroding. Even the St. Louis Fed president has spoken out, saying the Fed must quickly rebuild its anti-inflation credibility. If the market starts doubting the Fed's ability to control inflation, long-term rates could spiral further out of control.
My judgment: in the short term, it is near the top area, but it is not a turning point to go all in for a bottom-fishing opportunity; it is more likely a new baseline for high-level oscillation.
The underlying logic supporting the high level has not reversed. The fiscal deficit continues to expand, long-term bond supply is increasing, overseas major buyers' willingness is declining, Middle East tensions are recurring, and energy inflation remains a looming threat. These factors make it difficult for long-term rates to return to the low ranges seen in previous years.
But calling it a "new starting point" is too absolute. A 5.2% yield itself is already backfiring on the economy; continuing to short long bonds unilaterally at this level has low odds. A true trend reversal requires dual confirmation of sustained core inflation decline and clear economic slowdown.
There is also a huge geopolitical variable in the middle — the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil already surging to $96.6. Every 10% rise in oil prices pushes inflation expectations up, and long bonds get hammered again. As long as the US-Iran conflict continues, the selling pressure on long bonds will not truly end.
Reject black-and-white thinking. Short-term high-level oscillations will repeat, so heavy directional bets are not advisable. At this level, what is awaited is dual confirmation of inflation and the economy, not guessing the top or bottom.Korean stocks fell another 5%, but I think it's still too early to say the "storage bull market is over."
The most interesting thing is:
Last Friday, the KOSPI surged 17.9%, and today it dropped about 5% again.
Samsung and SK Hynix followed with big declines.
This no longer looks like normal trading; it feels more like capital trampling each other.
Now the storage market shows two completely opposite signals:
The bulls see:
AI is still crazily buying HBM, Samsung's profits are record-breaking, and SK Hynix's revenue is also at a record high.
The bears see:
Valuations are too high, expansion is too aggressive, and Chinese storage manufacturers are catching up.
So my current judgment is simple:
The storage bull market may not be dead yet,
but those speculating on storage might first be wiped out by high leverage.
That's also why it can rise 18% one day and still fall 5% the next.
What really matters is not how much it falls today.
But after this round of shakeout, whether Samsung and SK Hynix's performance can continue to hit new highs.
If performance keeps rising, today's sharp drop looks more like a shakeout.
If orders and profits also start to fall, then that is the real cycle turning point.
This also offers some reference for the crypto world:
If the AI chip sector—the strongest risk asset theme—starts to cool down continuously, high Beta assets like $ETH and $SOL will also find it hard to remain unaffected.
I am not bearish on AI yet.
I just think—the market no longer allows you to "just tell stories without looking at prices."
$ETH $SOL #KoreanStockMarket #AIChip
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 $HYPE HYPE Stuck at 52, Awaiting a Forceful Move
HYPE continues to hold and move within the band at $52, currently priced at $52.34, down 0.85% in the past 24 hours. After consecutive days of weak decline, it has pulled back over 30% from the June high of $78.
The news is mixed with positives and negatives. On the negative side: this week there are ~$22.74 million in HYPE token unlocks (although actual claims are lower than the cap), creating potential supply-side pressure; and growing community talk about the possibility that TradeXYZ is "alone" — a platform controlling over 90% of Hyperliquid's HIP-3 volume.
On the positive side: nearly all protocol revenue is used to buy and burn HYPE, with millions of dollars flowing in daily. Technically, $52 is a key support level — the 32% pullback from ATH — and since the RSI is approaching oversold territory (38-39), a technical bounce is possible.
At $52, if it holds, the target is $55–56; if it breaks down, the next levels are $50 and even $48. The short-term direction depends on catalysts — without them, continued grinding is expected.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 $BTC #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 $ETH Low circulation, high FDV, and dense unlocks—these three words together form the scenario where retail investors are most easily "gently harvested." Do you know why many coins seem cheap but become more anxious the more you buy them? The list of unlocking stress that the community has been repeatedly mentioning lately—I glanced at it: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI. To be honest, this list has grown long enough to be like a "guide to persuading people to quit." But what really concerned me wasn't the list itself, but the market's reaction to it—everyone clearly knew the unlock was coming, yet they couldn't help but bet on a rebound before the unlock and then saw the price get crushed on the day of the real volume surge in volume. This is the most subtle part. On the surface, it seems everyone is "trading to unlock expectations." But what is actually being traded? The question is, will those who receive the tokens sell immediately? If the unlocking targets are teams and early-stage institutions, selling pressure is almost a certain event; If the unlocking target is an ecosystem fund or a market maker, the price may actually be protected. The same event leads to two completely different endings, which is why looking only at the "unlock date" is meaningless; you must clearly see whose pockets the chips are going to. Looking deeper, the sentiment in this round of market has actually been split in two. Half of the people are focusing on new coins with low circulation and high FDV, knowing that this structure cannot sustain sustained growth🔥 Liquidation Heatmap + In-depth Analysis of Long-Short Position Ratios (2026.8.3)
1. 24H Network-wide Liquidation Overview
Dimension Data
Total Network Liquidation Approximately $282 million to $606 million (calculation differences: CoinGlass about $282 million, some platforms include weekend accumulations up to $606 million)
Long-Short Ratio Short liquidations dominate (62%~83%), typical short squeeze market
Number of Liquidations Approximately 54,000 to 95,000 liquidated across the network
Largest Single Liquidation BTC long on Hyperliquid about $2.76 million
📌 Interpretation: Today is a scenario of shorts being heavily liquidated. Geopolitical easing (US-Iran talks) → oil price crash → risk assets rebound, triggering a chain of short liquidations, creating positive feedback that drives the market upward.
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2. BTC Liquidation Heatmap Key Zones
Based on Hyblock / CoinGlass liquidation heat data:
🔴 Upper dense short positions (breakthrough may trigger short squeeze)
• $64,000–65,000: dense short liquidation zone; breaking through can cause short stampede, providing upward momentum
• $65,800–66,000: deeper short stop-loss cluster
🟢 Lower dense long positions (breakdown may trigger long stampede)
• $62,000–61,000: dense long liquidation zone; breaking below will accelerate long liquidations
• $60,000: psychological level + chip support
⚪ Current price zone (lower liquidation pressure)
• Around $63,000: currently a relative "vacuum zone," liquidation pressure is low, a tug-of-war area between longs and shorts
📊 BTC 24H Liquidation Distribution (CoinGlass real-time)
• Long liquidations: about $34.38 million (56.15%)
• Short liquidations: about $26.84 million (43.85%)
• Exchange ranking: Binance 32.3% > Hyperliquid 25.62% > Bybit 14.07%
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3. ETH Liquidation Heatmap Key Zones
🔴 Upper dense short positions
• $1,900–1,930: ETH short concentration zone; breaking $1,900 is key for short squeeze
• $1,950–1,980: deeper resistance + liquidation zone
🟢 Lower dense long positions
• $1,830–1,850: dense long liquidation zone
• $1,780–1,800: neckline support + liquidation cluster
📊 ETH 24H Liquidations
• Approximately $55.2 million network-wide liquidations, majority shorts
• Funding rate: 0.0041%~0.0065% (near zero and low, no extreme greed observed)
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4. Long-Short Position Ratio Analysis
🐋 Large holders/whales positions (key signals)
Metric BTC ETH Bias
Binance large account long-short ratio 1.63 (long) — Bullish
Binance large account number long-short ratio 1.79 — Bullish
OKX number long-short ratio 1.72 — Bullish
Hyperliquid whale positions Long 48.57% / Short 51.43% — Slightly bearish
Giant ETH 5x long Long at $3,147, unrealized loss $4.02 million — ⚠️ Risky
📊 Retail vs Institutional divergence (key conflict)
• Retail (1K–10K USD level): continuously buying dips spot + opening longs, sentiment bullish
• Whales/institutions (1M–10M USD level): net selling during rebound, suppressing rebound height
• ETH funding rate near zero + position volume up 2.33% → participation rising but direction unclear
🎯 Exchange long-short ratio snapshot (real-time)
• Binance BTC/USDT large holders: longs dominant (1.63)
• OKX BTC number ratio: 1.72 bullish
• Overall sentiment: Fear & Greed Index 27–28 (fear zone), sentiment bearish
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5. Comprehensive Judgment and Trading Insights
⚠️ Core Conflict
Retail desperately buying longs vs whales continuously distributing — this is the biggest current risk. The rebound is driven by short squeeze, not by new capital actively going long.
🔑 Key Price Watchlist
Asset Long Defense Short Stop-loss/Short Squeeze Point Signal
BTC 62,000–62,400 64,000–65,000 Hold above 62K bullish, break below turns bearish
ETH 1,830–1,850 1,900–1,930 Break above 1,900 confirms short squeeze
💡 Practical Suggestions
1. Upper space: If BTC can break out with volume above 64K–65K, short liquidation fuel is sufficient, follow the trend to go long, target 65,800
2. Downside risk: If it falls below 62K, long liquidation chain reaction ignites, may quickly test 60K
3. Position warning: Hyperliquid whale’s 5x ETH long at high level is already at unrealized loss; forced liquidation by large holders may trigger waterfall
4. Position discipline: Current retail crowded longs + whale distribution, not advisable to chase highs; waiting for pullback support to go long is safer
📌 Summary in one sentence
Today is a short squeeze rebound; liquidation heatmap shows upper $64K–65K (BTC), $1,900–1,930 (ETH) as key short squeeze zones; but retail long and whale short position divergence means the rebound is fragile; $62K (BTC)/$1,830 (ETH) are lifelines—breaking below immediately shifts to bearish view. Long and Short Crowding List
This set does not sort directions by rate but looks for high-cost positions and their price feedback.
$MMT current rate -0.1343%, settled -0.573% in the past 24 hours, at the 7th percentile of recent samples. Price is down, positions are also down; position retreat is a more certain indicator than directional attribution. OI contraction indicates risk exposure is withdrawing; the rate can only indicate which side has higher costs, it cannot replace detailed close position directions.
$BICO current rate -0.0922%, settled -0.097% in the past 24 hours, at the 0th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions rise synchronously, short-term is not just old positions being covered. Price and OI rise together, while the rate remains negative; this mismatch is more sensitive to shorts.
$SNDK current rate -0.0309%, settled +0.018% in the past 24 hours, at the 3rd percentile of recent samples. Decline accompanied by position expansion, selling pressure is supported by new positions, but OI alone cannot confirm short position direction. The rate has shifted from the past direction to the other side; position sentiment is being rearranged; signals become more complete after position expansion.#美日确认联合购汇
Why is the US willing to personally intervene this time in the US-Japan joint intervention in the yen? In recent years, a large amount of capital has been borrowed in low-interest yen to buy US stocks, AI, BTC, and other dollar assets. This is the so-called yen carry trade. What the US truly worries about is that if the yen keeps depreciating, the carry trade will keep expanding; and if one day the yen suddenly appreciates sharply, the concentrated liquidation of positions will impact not only the forex market but the global financial market.
Therefore, this time the US supports Japan in stabilizing the exchange rate while expanding the FIMA tool, hoping that Japan can buy yen without having to sell a large amount of US Treasuries to raise dollars, minimizing the impact on the US Treasury market.
However, this is only about controlling the pace, not changing the trend. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and Japan’s rate hikes remain slow, the US-Japan interest rate differential persists, and capital will ultimately flow to the dollar. Exchange rate intervention can stabilize short-term sentiment but is unlikely to change the long-term direction.
This move is more like buying the market a time window for an orderly exit rather than repeating the rapid carry trade liquidation seen in 2024. Going forward, the focus remains on US nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve policy, and the US-Japan interest rate differential. I'm very pleased that this article was featured in the official 8th weekly report's top posts. I'd like to briefly share the writing process with everyone. When I was writing this article, it happened to coincide with two industry giants releasing their earnings reports on the same day. The contrast in their stock movements was so stark that I thought to put them side by side to see exactly where the differences lie.
While writing, I was worried about turning it into just a list of data. Later, I found the angle of different AI implementation approaches, which immediately gave the article a clear main thread and made writing much smoother.
The main point is to express that although both companies are talking about AI, Microsoft and Meta are taking two completely different paths. One leverages existing business to help enterprises improve efficiency, while the other is betting on the future but facing pressure in the present. Actually, as long as you find an angle to explore deeply, base it on factual evidence, and bring out your own viewpoint, it works well.$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX The big divergence among the three storage giants! Micron and SK Hynix were heavily sold off by $100 million, while SanDisk quietly accumulated 36%. What signal does this send?
Today, the storage sector showed a stark contrast. According to Hyperliquid data, Micron and SK Hynix lost a combined $103 million in holdings over the past day, while SanDisk bucked the trend by attracting over $32 million, with holdings surging 36%. On the surface, the stock prices of the three companies didn’t fluctuate much, but on-chain capital movements have already revealed the true stance of the major players.
Why this divergence? External news also supports it—Apple CEO Cook publicly stated plans to increase DRAM suppliers, clearly aiming to break the monopoly of the three giants: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Meanwhile, the Korean stock market crashed today, with SK Hynix dropping more than 7%. All the negative pressure is piling on these two, so it’s no surprise that capital is fleeing.
In contrast, for SanDisk, only one large address added a $2.51 million long position, with no short positions opened at all. Although Micron also saw some long additions, shorts were simultaneously increasing, indicating a strong hedging between longs and shorts. SK Hynix is worse off, with whales all exiting and even shorts reducing their positions.
My view is that capital is shifting from the DRAM track to NAND flash memory. This doesn’t mean the sector as a whole is underperforming; rather, it’s an internal repricing. Today, Bitcoin also rose above $63,000, and with the entire crypto market warming up and risk appetite increasing, this kind of structural reallocation deserves close attention.
What’s next? Watch if SanDisk’s long positions continue to expand, and keep an eye on whether shorts on Micron and SK Hynix are still increasing. Directionally, avoid DRAM for now, but keep a close watch on the NAND line.
Want to catch the major players’ reallocation moves first? Hit follow, and I’ll keep an eye on the data for you. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Why does the crypto market tremble when the USD and JPY intervene together and the yen rises?
The US and Japan have confirmed joint currency purchases, with market expectations that the action mainly supports the yen and limits the continued rise of the USD against the yen. On the surface, a weaker dollar is beneficial for BTC.
However, many funds have borrowed low-interest yen to buy US stocks and crypto assets. If the yen suddenly appreciates, these funds may be forced to sell assets to repay loans.
Therefore, this news may not be bullish in the short term. Market outlook: initially bearish, focusing on whether BTC can hold $62,000.
Personal view: if it breaks below $62,000, go short accordingly, stop loss at $62,800, target between $60,500 and $60,000.
If the yen stabilizes and BTC climbs back above $64,000, then switch to bullish on $BTC
#美日确认联合购汇 #Coldcard security incident escalation, fourth wave attack warning
According to industry estimates, about 7 million $BTC have their public keys exposed on-chain, theoretically making them targets for future quantum attacks, with a total value of approximately $470 billion. However, there is no need to worry too much yet, as public key exposure does not mean assets will be stolen, because quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin private keys have not yet appeared.
What needs to be watched is that technological progress is continuously shortening this security window. Google researchers have stated that the number of qubits required to break related cryptographic systems has significantly decreased; Ethereum researchers estimate that by 2032, the probability of quantum computers successfully cracking exposed public keys could reach about 10%. Currently, laboratories can only break extremely short test keys, still far from the real 256-bit keys.
The Bitcoin community is also continuously discussing and researching related upgrade proposals:
BIP-360 plans to introduce quantum-resistant addresses, encouraging users to proactively migrate assets.
BIP-361 is more aggressive, advocating for a phased elimination of old-style signatures, ultimately freezing wallets that have not migrated for a long time. Supporters of this plan believe freezing dormant assets is better than having them stolen by quantum hackers and dumped on the market; opponents worry this equates to making decisions on behalf of asset holders and may even cross Bitcoin’s decentralization red line.
Of course, some startups have begun to seize the quantum-resistant track. American Fortress claims it can add quantum protection to multiple blockchains without changing existing addresses and automatically freeze high-risk wallets before attacks occur, but its core paper has not been published, and the technology lacks independent audits, so it currently seems more like hype.
The quantum threat is a real test that the Bitcoin network must face, not only upgrading cryptographic algorithms but also reaching consensus on security, property rights, privacy, and compliance.
We believe the Bitcoin community can properly handle this "quantum threat" crisis.#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
Korean stocks plunged 5%, storage bulls and bears signals confront each other: It's not that the cycle is dead, but the leverage died first.
On the morning of August 3, the Korean KOSPI once dropped more than 5%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plunging over 8% at the open, Hynix nearly 9% at its lowest.
Just last Friday (July 31), KOSPI surged 17.91%, marking the largest single-day gain in history, and Hynix hit the 30% daily limit—within 48 hours, it went from limit up to near limit down. The two Korean storage giants have fully demonstrated the meaning of "emotion amplifier."
There are two apparent triggers:
• Kioxia's Q1 operating profit of 1.27 trillion JPY missed the expected 1.37 trillion JPY, leading to a drop in US storage stocks first (Kioxia ADR -10%, Micron -5.9%, Hynix ADR -3.5%)
• From July 31, the margin requirement for Korean individual stock leveraged ETFs increased from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW, causing leveraged funds to exit in a stampede
But fundamentally, this is the first time storage bull and bear signals have directly diverged:
Bulls still hold strong cards
• HBM3E/4 gap of 50%–60%, HBM market expected to grow +58% to $54.6 billion by 2026, accounting for nearly 40% of DRAM
• Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron have locked 70% of new advanced capacity for HBM+DDR5, pushing consumer-grade DRAM/NAND to no growth
• SK Hynix Q2 revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW and operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW both hit record highs; Morgan Stanley even says "over 40% upside potential"
Bears just revealed their cards this week
• DRAM contract price quarterly growth rate dropped from Q1's 93–98% → Q2's 58–63% → Q3 estimated only 13–18%, a cliff-like slope
• Mobile side first defected: OPPO/vivo rejected Samsung's Q3 quotes, domestic top manufacturers followed, Huaqiangbei DDR4 single-month pullback about 35%
• Nvidia Rubin Ultra preview HBM4 cut from 12-Hi 384GB to 8-Hi 192GB, AMD MI455X removed LPDDR5X—AI side is not rejecting storage, but can't afford this much
• Morgan Stanley bluntly says: memory contract prices peak in Q4
My view without beating around the bush:
This 5% drop in Korean stocks is not a falsification of the storage supercycle, but a phase expiration of "price elasticity trading" plus a washout of leveraged chips.
HBM's mid-term scarcity is real, but the narrative of "DRAM doubling in price across the board" has reached the stage where customers vote with their feet. With manufacturers fiercely defending pricing power (Samsung DS refusing MX long-term contracts), buyers rejecting orders, and system manufacturers downgrading configurations—the three-way game means from Q3 it will be "stable price with volume growth, valuation downgrade," not "price keeps flying, stock price keeps multiplying."
For those exposed to memory like XSKHY (SK Hynix ADR tokenized), XMU (Micron), RAM, these days you need to distinguish two things:
• Underlying stocks dropped 8% Monday in Korean stocks, but XSKHY is Nasdaq ADR, partially priced in over the weekend and pre-market; don't blindly short tokens just because KOSPI is down 5%, the price gap will bite
• For perpetual 2x leveraged DRAM ETFs like RAM, volatility decay during sideways periods kills more than wrong direction; don't treat "long storage logic" as a reason to "hold leveraged positions overnight"
My personal operation plan:
1. From August 3–8, only focus on "killing leverage," don't catch falling knives; until Hynix/Samsung Korean stocks stabilize with volume, don't add to XSKHY on dips
2. If you really want to position: wait for official Q3 DRAM contract price data (mid to late August); if prices rise 13–18% and HBM shipments continue doubling, then reconsider XSKHY/XMU pullback support
3. Use leveraged positions only for earnings/data night gamma, not for "I think the cycle isn't over" passive longs
In short:
Storage is not over; the past three months have fully priced in the "AI + shortage + leverage" triple premium, now it's first unwinding the leverage layer, then discussing fundamentals. Bulls holding HBM can endure until 2027; short-term traders should survive this week first.
Do you believe the storage supercycle can last until 2027, or do you think prices peak in Q4 and the Korean storage giants will retest July lows?📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 3)
⚠️ Duplicate Data Reminder: This image is exactly the same as the previous SOL liquidation data; the following report content is identical.
According to liquidation data, short-term longs are being crushed mercilessly, but mid-to-long-term shorts are suffering a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $210,700
Long liquidations about $210,600
Short liquidations about $92.29
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $575,900
Long liquidations about $575,800
Short liquidations about $92.29
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $2,758,000
Long liquidations about $2,090,200
Short liquidations about $667,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $3,544,200
Long liquidations about $2,354,700
Short liquidations about $1,189,400
From $SOL liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with long liquidations 2,280 and 6,240 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a nuclear-level intensity of long liquidation at the start; the 12-hour long advantage sharply narrows, ratio drops to 3.1 times, short squeeze power significantly strengthens; the 24-hour long advantage further narrows, ratio falls below 2 times, showing a fierce turnaround from long liquidation to short squeeze by the whales on SOL—short-term longs are targeted for liquidation, mid-to-long-term shorts are continuously harvested, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.54 million. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the reset of the global asset pricing anchor and the intense swing of market confidence—the bond market punishing the Fed, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding to the extreme under policy stimulus.
📈 30-Year US Treasury: Top or New Starting Point?
It may not be the end yet.
On July 29, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the 9-3 vote revealed internal division—three regional Fed presidents advocated for a rate hike, the first time since 2016. More importantly, Chair Powell withdrew forward guidance, completely disrupting market expectations.
Three forces driving long-term bond yields soaring:
· Fed credibility damaged: senior observers bluntly say "Powell's messaging was unclear, and the bond market reacted mercilessly"
· Side effects of US-Japan joint intervention: may require selling or pledging US Treasuries to obtain liquidity
· US-Iran conflict pushing up inflation expectations: high oil prices
The 30-year yield has surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007. JPMorgan has raised its 30-year target to 5.4%; options markets bet on breaking 5.4% before August 21. Brandywine fund manager bluntly states: "Long-end investors don't believe his anti-inflation narrative."
💴 US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase: First Cooperation in 15 Years
On August 3, US and Japanese finance ministries simultaneously confirmed joint yen purchases on July 31. This is the first joint intervention since 2011, and the first yen purchase operation since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Japan's Finance Minister clearly stated: "We will not hesitate to further intervene jointly in the future."
After intervention, the yen rose to the 156 yen per US dollar range. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said "It effectively curbed disorderly yen fluctuations," and Trump said "This reflects friendship and benefits the world economy." The last time such cooperation occurred was during the Asian financial crisis—the forex market has entered crisis response mode.
📉 KOSPI Intraday Surge 14%: Policy-Driven Extreme Rebound
On July 31, KOSPI closed with a surge of 17.91%, the largest single-day gain in history. The South Korean government announced a 20 trillion won (13.9 billion USD) capital injection into the sovereign wealth fund for AI investment; SK Group chairman unusually directly bought SK Hynix shares; combined with US-Japan joint intervention boosting the won.
But on August 3, KOSPI opened down 3.6%, intraday drop widened to 4.52%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 7.8% and 7.5% respectively. An 18% surge one day followed by over 4% drop the next day shows South Korea's stock market volatility has moved from "extreme" to "disorderly."
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core picture of the global market in early August 2026: the bond market punishing the Fed's hesitation, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding extremely under policy stimulus then quickly giving back gains. The 30-year US Treasury yield stands at 5.27%, US and Japan jointly intervene in forex, KOSPI surges 18% in one day—none of these are normal. When all three markets simultaneously show "abnormal" volatility, the old order is collapsing, the new pricing system is not yet established, and the chaos in between is the only certainty now. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 US Stock Market Preview This Week (2026.8.3-8.7)
Personal views, not investment advice
1. Earnings Reports and Macro Events Preview
• Monday: PLTR (after market close)
• Tuesday: SPCX, ALAB, ANET, AMD (after market close)
• Wednesday: SNDK, CRCL, GFS, WDC, IONQ (after market close)
• Thursday: AAOI, NET (after market close)
• Friday: US July Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
2. Core Judgments on the Storage Sector:
• After the bubble clears, the market will become more rational and will scrutinize each company's business with stricter standards.
• The real gap in data centers, with technical barriers and premium capability, lies in HBM, not ordinary DRAM/SSD/NAND/Hard Disk, etc.
• With the capacity rollout of Chinese storage companies, the US storage sector will bid farewell to the history of unilateral broad gains and shift to a differentiated, volatile market.
• Favorable outlook for MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung, which have HBM R&D and production capabilities, but the path to new highs will not be smooth and requires patience.
3. Judgments on SPCX:
• Lock-up pressure: Two trading days after the earnings release (after August 6), about 911 million shares (worth over $100 billion) will be unlocked for the first time, significantly expanding the current float and creating potential selling pressure.
• Potential rumors: Tesla is considering selling its China business to pave the way for a merger with TSLA and SPCX, but the merger faces regulatory issues and will take time; this should not be used as a short-term trading rationale.
• Current environment: Given the overall cautious market environment and SPCX's high valuation, it is best to observe for now.6 days left, $BABY is about to unlock 136 million tokens of selling pressure. Friends who jumped in during the big pump in the past two days, get off quickly:
1. Next Monday, Babylon will unlock 136 million tokens, of which 85 million are early investors', 41 million are the team's, and 10 million are advisors'. At the current price of 0.011u, that's $1.5 million.
2. Currently, BABY's daily trading volume is $4.9 million, meaning the unlocked amount next week will account for 30% of the daily trading volume. Theoretically, the market can still absorb this within a 5% drop.
But the key point is, this unlocking is a fixed monthly unlock for 36 consecutive months, meaning every month there will be new supply entering the market equal to 30% of the daily trading volume. In one year, that's 1.63 billion tokens, accounting for 40% of the current total circulation.
3. Babylon is running joint staking and cooperating with Aave V4 and others, which both increases yields and supplements liquidity. Will the unlocked tokens be restaked? I don't think so.
Although the project's joint staking requires 1 $BTC paired with 20,000 $BABY, and if the joint staking yield is high enough, some unlocked tokens will be staked and locked. But the problem is, everyone will do the math: joint staking yields about 9%, but the token has a 5.5% annual inflation, not to mention the more tokens unlocked, the more the price drops.
4. What could stop the price from falling? I feel the chances are very slim. Because it requires:
① TBV mainnet to start generating substantial real revenue;
② The official buyback and burn mechanism to truly kick in;
③ BTC to surge significantly, boosting joint staking yields and locking more tokens.
So, without catalysts, every rebound is just a window to sell. If you want to buy BABY, at least wait until the buyback mechanism is implemented.Microsoft's July 30, 2026 earnings may have answered the biggest question facing the AI market.
Investors weren't looking for another strong quarter.
They wanted to know one thing:
Would Microsoft slow its AI infrastructure spending?
Instead, the company reaffirmed its commitment to AI and continued expanding capital expenditures (CapEx).
That single message helped restore confidence across the AI supply chain.
Semiconductor and memory stocks rallied as investors concluded that demand for AI infrastructure remains intact—for now.
The bigger question isn't whether AI spending is strong today.
It's whether this pace of investment can be sustained over the next several years.
That answer will shape the next phase of the AI trade.
#AI #Microsoft #Semiconductors #Tech #CapEx #Markets #美日确认联合购汇
The whole internet has been talking about the US-Japan joint currency purchase these past two days. The USD/JPY rate has pulled back from above 162 to around 156. Many people think the US side only has a $40 billion exchange rate stabilization fund, so they feel this ammunition is insufficient.
But this game is seriously underestimated if you only focus on the amount of ammunition and ignore the real impact of the intervention.
1. The signaling effect far outweighs the size of the funds
Previously, when Japan acted alone, shorts were not afraid at all; they even treated intervention points as opportunities to add to their short positions on the yen for free money. Now, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has directly stated she will not hesitate to continue intervening, which changes the nature of the situation.
What shorts fear most now is not how much money the US will spend, but the uncertainty of when the US and Japan might suddenly crash the market at a moment of liquidity fragility. The risk-reward ratio of shorting is instantly blown up, forcing many high-leverage arbitrage positions to close to survive. This psychological deterrent is far more effective than dumping several hundred billion in funds.
2. Forecast of the next moves
162 is very likely the phase peak of this round of yen depreciation.
However, the yen is unlikely to rally sharply just from intervention alone; exchange rates ultimately depend on interest rate differentials. Intervention is only a catalyst; what truly supports yen strength is the pace of future Fed rate cuts and Bank of Japan rate hikes.
As long as the interest rate gap starts to narrow, the yen will naturally trend downward with volatility. Conversely, if rate cuts fall short of expectations, the market will test the policy floor again.
3. Watch for hidden capital flows
With the yen depreciation risk forcibly suppressed, the extremely crowded yen carry trade arbitrage of recent years will accelerate its unwinding. These funds will flow back to Japan, which in the short term will indeed put some liquidity drain pressure on risk assets like US Treasuries and crypto markets. The coming months are definitely worth close attention.
In summary, intervention is never about fighting market trends head-on but about shattering short sellers’ expectations. As long as the US-Japan joint statement is in place, shorts won’t dare to act recklessly.
Not investment advice DYOR 📊 Bitcoin Active Addresses Surge After Coldcard Incident – Bullish Signal or Just Short-Term Noise?
According to the chart, Active Addresses jumped from around 645K to nearly 1 million, one of the biggest spikes in recent months. The move followed the Coldcard security incident, which led many users to transfer BTC to new wallets.
While rising active addresses are often viewed as bullish, this spike is likely driven by wallet migrations rather than fresh buying demand. Existing holders moved their coins for security reasons, temporarily boosting on-chain activity.
That said, the event still highlights Bitcoin's strong network participation and the growing importance of self-custody. More users interacting with the blockchain is generally a positive sign for long-term adoption.
The key question is whether this activity remains elevated after the migration ends. If active addresses stay high, it could signal genuine user growth. If they quickly fall back to normal levels, the spike was probably a one-time event.
📊From a market perspective:
🔸Active Addresses ≈ 1M
🔸BTC price remains around $63K
🔸Network usage has risen sharply, while price has yet to fully react.
Active Addresses alone are not enough to confirm a bullish trend. Watch this metric together with ETF inflows, exchange outflows, and transaction volume to determine whether real demand is returning.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #CryptoQuant #Crypto #Blockchain #MarketStructure #CryptoAnalytics#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
After celebrating an epic rebound in the previous trading day, the Korean stock market today pushed back the chasing funds to their seats.
KOSPI finally closed down 5.13% at 6257.41 points; the two largest weighted chip stocks—SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics—both fell nearly 9%. This data indicates that the index decline is not just ordinary profit-taking but a concentrated sell-off in the AI and semiconductor sectors.
There is another easily overlooked figure: after a 5.13% drop, KOSPI needs to rise about 5.41% to return to its original level.
Losses and recoveries are never symmetrical.
For the crypto market, the Korean stock pullback does not necessarily mean $BTC, $ETH, and $XRP will fall in tandem; the key is where Korean funds flow. If the KRW trading volumes on Upbit and Bithumb increase simultaneously, it may indicate some short-term funds are moving back from stocks to crypto; if both stocks and crypto volumes shrink simultaneously, it looks more like a broad risk reduction rather than a simple rotation of funds.
I will focus on three areas: whether $BTC can stabilize risk appetite, whether $ETH can keep up with the rebound pace, and whether the $XRP/KRW pair favored by Korean traders suddenly shows volume spikes. The first two reflect global fund sentiment, while the latter is closer to local Korean sentiment.
The most dangerous thing now is not the 5% drop in Korean stocks, but the clearly increased volatility—first a sharp rise, then a big fall. Such a market will continuously create the illusion of "bottom fishing" and cause those chasing highs to repeatedly buy in.
This is purely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.The most dangerous traders are not the novices chasing highs, but the "smart ones" who just took profits and can't resist adding positions again. 🎯 Once greed takes over, profits turn into fuel for leverage.
📉 $BTC still dominates the overall market. Holding 63,700 is the bottom line; once broken, the market will enter a volatile zone. Note that a rapid surge in altcoins is not necessarily an opportunity but more like bait set for leveraged longs. Breaking below 62,700 will trigger mass liquidation of short-term long positions; breaking below 62,500 will lead to targeted sweeps of high-leverage 20x/50x positions.
⛓️ $ETH's key range is 1,620–1,650. Failure to hold above 1,650 will weaken overall altcoin momentum; once 1,620 is lost, market confidence in alts will quickly collapse.
🔍 Core watchlist:
👉 $SOL: If it falls below 80, stop betting on high Beta alt rebounds;
👉 $BNB: If it breaks 580, overall risk appetite is rapidly contracting;
👉 $DOGE: If it drops below 0.071, then Meme markets like $PE $WIF $BONK will purely rely on sentiment and could disconnect at any time.
📡 Narratives worth monitoring: $WLD, $TAO, $KAITO, $ZEC, $HYPE, $ENA. But remember: a good story#美日确认联合购汇 The real focus of the market is not the phrase "joint currency purchase" itself, but the underlying capital logic behind it.
When the US and Japan confirm joint currency purchases, it essentially means both sides are starting to coordinate in the foreign exchange market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. This sends a signal: major economies are beginning to place greater emphasis on financial market stability rather than allowing exchange rates to fluctuate freely.
For the market, this will have several impacts:
1. Expectations for dollar liquidity may change. Once foreign exchange intervention increases, capital will reassess the allocation direction of the dollar, yen, and global capital.
2. The pricing logic of risk assets will also adjust. Whether it’s US stocks or the crypto market, what truly drives the market is not the news itself, but whether the news changes capital flows.
3. Don’t just focus on the news. After every major policy announcement, the market first trades on expectations, then on reality. If capital does not continue to flow in, even the best news may only be an emotional catalyst; conversely, if capital continues to position, even bland news can quietly unfold a trend.
My trading increasingly leans toward one principle:
News creates volatility, capital determines the trend.
Therefore, rather than debating whether this news is bullish or bearish, I am more concerned about whether new correlations emerge in the coming days among the dollar index, US Treasury yields, yen exchange rate, and risk assets.
Do you think the US-Japan joint currency purchase is merely about stabilizing exchange rates, or is it the beginning of a new phase of global liquidity?#Korean stocks plunge 5%, storage sector sees conflicting bullish and bearish signals
KOSPI fell more than 5% intraday, led down by Samsung and SK Hynix, with the storage sector once again caught in intense divergence. On one side, AI computing power continues to require HBM support demand; on the other, concerns arise that the storage price hike cycle is nearing its end, bringing the bull-bear battle to a critical window.
First, clarify the two main triggers for the decline:
1. A large amount of profit-taking accumulated from the recent short-term surge, combined with tightened regulation on Korean leveraged ETFs, causing leveraged funds to flee en masse and amplifying the correction;
2. The market begins to price in risks: downstream terminals resist continuous price increases, the slope of storage contract price rises slows, and funds worry that the boom is peaking early.
Core logic of the two camps:
Bullish view:
The global AI computing power expansion cycle is not over, and HBM demand remains rigid; industry capital expenditure is restrained, supply will not flood quickly, and the mid-to-long-term price base remains high, making any pullback a buying opportunity.
Bearish view:
Storage performance is already at the cycle peak, with expectations overly priced in. Once price increases slow, valuations will quickly adjust downward; this round of gains was driven by leverage, and the deleveraging phase's pullback should not be underestimated.
My view is that it is not simple to declare the end of the storage bull market, but the reality must be recognized: the broad rally phase is over, entering a period of intense volatility and divergence.
Short-term fluctuations are mostly emotional sell-offs caused by leveraged fund outflows and do not yet signal a fundamental reversal.
However, beware of chain emotional transmission: storage is a global AI hardware sentiment barometer; if it continues to weaken, it will suppress risk appetite for Nasdaq growth stocks and indirectly drag down BTC and ETH.
Do not rush to bottom-fish or bet on a rebound; wait for selling pressure to be fully released and stabilization signals to appear;
Distinguish targets: the elasticity of general storage purely speculating on cyclical price hikes is weakening, while targets tied to AI high-bandwidth memory show stronger resilience.
Key observations mapped to the crypto market:
Will panic in Korean stocks spread to the US semiconductor sector?
If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakens simultaneously, it will be difficult for risk assets to sustain an independent bull market.Saylor continues to sell $BTC!! A wallet associated with Strategy transferred nearly 300 BTC 9 hours ago. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet linked to Michael Saylor's Strategy transferred out 299.84 BTC (approximately $18.91 million) 9 hours ago, sparking market speculation about whether more coins are being sold. The last activity from this wallet was during the week of July 1 to 5, when Strategy sold 3,588 BTC (about $216 million). The company holds 843,775 BTC with an average cost of $75,476; 10.8% is the financing threshold, which is a different concept. A price below the holding cost results in a book loss but does not automatically trigger liquidation. Pressure comes from cash flow: preferred stock dividends and interest amount to about $149 million per month, with $3.75 billion in dollar reserves, covering approximately 2.1 years. This year, the company has sold $218.4 million worth of BTC to pay part of the dividends, and the board has also allowed continued coin sales to replenish reserves, with no unified overall limit on related uses. However, the remaining $975 million—correction, $975 million in STRC repurchase authorization—is just an authorization, not a mandatory execution. Only if ATM financing continues to shrink, STRC remains significantly discounted long-term, and dollar reserves decline noticeably at the same time, will Strategy be more likely to shift from a BTC buyer to a consistent seller. I will monitor the BTC balance, ATM fundraising amount, and#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
Damn! Someone is equating the 30-year US Treasury yield with 2007 again!
Back then, short-term rates were already frighteningly high, and the long end was following the short end closely, essentially an inversion, with the market shouting "it's going to crash." Now, the short end is still hovering relatively low, but the long end is charging upward on its own, like it’s headed somewhere.
It's a completely different story. Previously, it was a rate inversion, and everyone feared the economy was doomed; now, the longer you borrow, the more interest the market demands because the national debt keeps growing and prices just won’t come down. The situation is different, and the pain points are different too.
Wall Street, as usual, is split into two camps arguing. One camp (some big banks) has already moved up the timing for rate hikes, claiming the long end will keep rising. The other camp is praying for oil prices to fall due to diplomatic developments and for foreign holders not to sell off massively.
Both sides are half right and both are frustrated. Oil prices can drop a few dollars, Japan can temporarily secure dollar pipelines without rushing to dump Treasuries, but none of this solves the mountain of US debt supply flooding the market or the fact that no one really believes inflation has settled down.
Some KOLs on X have pointed out: the government is now offering you a clean 30-year 5%+ yield, yet you’re still buying growth stocks with 50-100x P/E ratios that rely on AI fairy tales to pay off debt? The opportunity cost has finally become real.
The other camp is focused on mortgage loans and the housing market being strangled, with rates already high enough to hurt, transaction volumes blocked, and already tight consumers feeling even worse. Some also note that foreigners are quietly reducing holdings, but the long end just won’t turn back.
Foreign big players are offloading Treasuries, yields keep climbing, so someone has to take the other side, right? The buyers have to pay more, and in the end, ordinary people get the short end—more expensive mortgages, harder loan approvals, and less valuable stocks.
Don’t think cryptocurrencies can dodge this just because they don’t have 30-year bonds. There’s no long-end instrument here to express expectations over the next decade; price is the only vote, updated every block.
While traditional markets are still arguing whether this yield is a peak or a new starting point, digital assets are already digesting the same factors in real time: higher discount rates, tighter financial conditions, and declining risk appetite. If the long end holds steady and starts to fall, risk assets can catch a break; if it keeps pushing up, volatility and pressure continue.
Ignoring this is just self-comfort.
Stop treating historical yield numbers like tarot cards. The numbers are the same, but the context is completely different. Short-term rates, fiscal realities, term premiums, foreign demand—all have changed this round.
The market now accepts that rates will be higher and last longer because hoping the national debt and stubborn prices suddenly vanish is just a dream.
Keep your eyes on the long end; don’t get distracted by all the noise. Nothing else matters as much.Taking students to trade Ethereum, the market never lacks opportunities, what is lacking is a pair of eyes to discover opportunities $ETH #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ In the past, $DOGE's price fluctuations were completely tied to Elon Musk's social media activity, but recently, for a long period, Musk has rarely posted positive comments about Dogecoin. Without news catalysts, DOGE has completely lost its upward momentum.
During market fluctuations, funds prefer to choose safe-haven assets like BTC and BNB rather than pure MEME coins like Dogecoin. At the same time, Bitcoin's dominance continues to strengthen, and the overall siphoning effect on altcoins is obvious.
Dogecoin has an unlimited total supply with no burn mechanism, and long-term inflation suppresses its valuation, which is an inherent flaw. After this round of decline, it is difficult to see a major speculative rally in the short term.
It is only suitable for very small position entertainment trading and cannot be used as an investment allocation; the fundamentals have no room for improvement.#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Crude oil suddenly dropped 5%, has the bullish case for BTC really arrived?
The US and Iran have returned to the negotiating table, the US has paused a new round of strike plans, and the market quickly removed some of the "war premium," with US oil falling about 5% at one point.
On the surface, this is the scenario risk assets like most:
Oil price drops
→ Inflation pressure eases
→ US Treasury yields may fall
→ Tech stocks and BTC valuation pressure eases
But here is an easily overlooked issue:
Resuming negotiations does not equal risk removal.
What truly determines the market is not the news headlines, but the following three confirmation signals:
1️⃣ Whether crude oil can continue to decline rather than quickly rebound in a V-shape
2️⃣ Whether 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields decline simultaneously
3️⃣ Whether the Nasdaq and BTC can genuinely strengthen
Pay special attention: if oil prices have already dropped but BTC still reacts indifferently, it indicates market risk appetite may not have truly recovered, and funds are still waiting for more certain outcomes.
So my judgment is:
This round of oil price pullback has opened a breathing room for risk assets but cannot be directly equated with a new round of rally.
The market first trades on "negotiation expectations," then will verify whether the negotiations can be realized and whether transport through the Strait of Hormuz can resume.
Which trend do you lean towards?
A: Negotiations advance, oil price continues to fall
B: Just a short ceasefire, oil price rebounds again
C: Wait for confirmation from US Treasury yields and BTC
#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 #BTC #原油 #美债 #美股
For market observation only, not investment advice.$UB It has risen a lot in the past three weeks, and there hasn't been much pullback. This inevitably reminds me of $BEAT, which also rose similarly back then. I remember that when $BEAT rose, there was basically no pullback, and when it fell, there was basically no correction. It is a straight rise and a straight fall. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. It can be seen that after it rises, its contract open interest increases, while the long-short ratio of contracts decreases. This shows that quite a few people are indeed shorting right now. Let's look at its longer-term data. It can be seen that the long-short ratio of its contract follows a very clear pattern. From the chart, there are two relatively obvious peak positions, corresponding to changes in open interest showing two downward sharp points. Based on its trend, I personally infer that if it wants to rise at present, the resistance from bears is very significant. Moreover, as time goes on, the number of short positions it accumulates keeps increasing. Let's compare it again with $BEAT's situation at the time. Their overall trends are quite similar, and they should have reached a high point at the moment. If nothing too unexpected happens, $UB might still need to push the pin upward. —————————————————— So, what is the current strategy? My personal view is to wait for $UB to push upward, and after insertion, consider shorting.#美日确认联合购汇
After 15 years, Japan and the U.S. have finally teamed up again. On August 3, Japan's Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that last Friday it coordinated with the U.S. Treasury to buy yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also confirmed this simultaneously and stated that they "will not hesitate to participate in further joint interventions." From the 1998 Asian financial crisis until today, after 28 years, intervention to buy yen has reappeared.
Why now?
Because the yen really can't hold up anymore. Last Thursday, the USD/JPY rate briefly hit 163.73, marking the lowest level in about 40 years. Import prices were pushed higher, inflationary pressure intensified, and both household wallets and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's public approval ratings came under pressure. Japan has intervened unilaterally several times, but the effects were not lasting—interventions in April and May only brought short-lived rebounds. This time, the U.S. had to be called in to act together.
How large is the scale?
According to data from the Bank of Japan, during the intervention in the New York market last Thursday, Japan may have sold about $58.97 billion to buy yen. Including the joint action with the U.S. on Friday, the total two-round input amounted to about 14 to 15 trillion yen. The effect was immediate—the USD/JPY rate fell from above 164 down to around 156, briefly touching 155.22 on August 3, a nearly three-month high.
But the problem is: the commitment is strong, but ammunition is limited.
Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama said, "We will continue to cooperate without hesitation to implement further foreign exchange market interventions." Yellen also said, "We will not hesitate to participate in subsequent joint interventions." However, JPMorgan estimates that the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund has about $40 billion available, while Japan's single-round intervention requires $35 to $60 billion. The U.S. contribution may only be a fraction of Japan's.
There is a clever technical design: the FIMA repo facility.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance also announced that it will activate the Federal Reserve's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility in the future. Japan can temporarily pledge U.S. Treasury bonds to obtain short-term dollar liquidity without directly selling U.S. debt to raise intervention funds. Treasury Secretary Yellen also indicated that the U.S. will consider expanding the FIMA facility in the coming months. Without FIMA, Japan's intervention would require selling U.S. Treasuries to exchange for dollars, which would further push up U.S. Treasury yields and negatively impact global financial markets. With FIMA, this transmission chain is cut off.
What is even more noteworthy is that global central banks are collectively fracturing.
On the Bank of Japan side, the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 1%, but board member Takada cast the sole dissenting vote, advocating a 25 basis point hike to 1.25%. Governor Ueda Kazuo said the exchange rate's impact on inflation is greater than before, hinting at a possible rate hike as early as September.
On the Bank of England side, the rate remains at 3.75%, but the number of members supporting a rate hike increased to three—Chief Economist Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann all voted for a hike.
On the Federal Reserve side, the July meeting kept rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted to raise rates by 25 basis points, the first time since 2016.
All three major central banks are internally divided. Yellen even publicly called on the Bank of Japan to raise rates further—U.S. Treasury Secretary directly urging other central banks to hike is itself a signal.
The joint intervention by Japan and the U.S. has stabilized the yen in the short term. But history from the April intervention shows that without sustained policy support, the effect of intervention is limited. The real turning point for the yen does not depend on how many dollars the Bank of Japan sells, but on when it truly raises interest rates. All three central banks face the dilemma of "inflation not coming down, economy not holding up," and each one's choice will affect the others.
An America and Japan trying to jointly prop up the yen, and a global central banking system fracturing internally. These two things happening simultaneously are themselves a signal worth continuous attention.👇Save this chart well; it might benefit you for life!
Many friends ask me why on June 23rd I cleared all A-shares and most U.S. stock positions, because the average price of A-shares has already peaked.
Looking back at the past several major bull markets in A-shares, there has always been strong policy-driven support along with cooperation from the central bank.
From 2005 to 2007, the equity division reform was a systemic dividend, combined with the 2005 exchange rate reform, RMB appreciated significantly, hot money flooded in, and policy plus capital brought about the most frenzied surge.
From 2008 to 2010, the 4 trillion yuan strong market rescue, the central bank’s massive liquidity injection, significant interest rate and reserve requirement cuts, and extremely loose credit conditions enabled a rapid surge in A-shares.
From 2013 to 2015, the "Internet+" entrepreneurship boom, combined with relaxed merger and acquisition policies, eased margin trading restrictions, rampant off-exchange financing, and wild speculation in tech stocks, represented by LeEco at the time.
From 2018 to 2021, the year of value investing, a wave of public fund issuance and core asset clustering, embracing cash cows, northbound capital and public funds held pricing power, with funds highly concentrated in leading industries like liquor and new energy (the "Moutai Index," "Ning Combo").
From 2024 to 2026, a combination of financial policies hit the market: reserve requirement and interest rate cuts implemented, the central bank innovatively established stock repurchase and increased loan mechanisms, national funds supported chip domestic substitution, AI industry, etc., leading to a sharp rise!
It can be seen that almost every major A-share bull market has several core features: strong national policy or capital support, combined with multiple rounds of monetary policy stimulus (reserve requirement and interest rate cuts), achieving rapid rises and harvesting opportunities.
The cycle is like a pendulum, never stopping, with similar patterns. Moreover, with the linkage of northbound capital and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the China-U.S. trends, which used to lag by 1-2 months, have now basically shortened to 2-4 weeks, but there are still many time-difference arbitrage ideas.
For example, MLCC: when Shenzhen Huaqiangbei started hoarding $MRAAY ceramic capacitors, spot prices and stock prices showed offline physical spot accumulation and price increases starting from February, while Murata’s stock price only began to rise from April 1st, climbing from $11 to $38. China’s MLCC leader, Fenghua Advanced Technology, only started rising from mid-April, from 20 to 83, two weeks later. Cross-time arbitrage opportunities remain plentiful.
But currently, it’s basically peaked. The listing of Changxin marks this; the national team’s excellent operators have drawn a very clear chart, waiting for the next cycle turning point. Patience is the best weapon for investment.
Next, it might be better to take profits and look at gold and #BTC, which have been consolidating for a long time, for reference only! 🧐 $APT is another typical high-performance L1 that is "technically impressive, overvalued, and slow to gain traction." Early on, it relied heavily on VC funding and the Move language concept to boost its valuation. Now, its price has retraced about 97% from its all-time high, yet it still struggles with the dual challenges of unlocking pressure and homogeneous competition.
Early distribution was highly concentrated, with investors and core contributors facing a four-year unlocking period that won't basically end until October 2026. The continuous supply release before then created significant selling pressure. Although tokenomics reforms were implemented in early 2026 (capping supply at 2.1 billion, reducing staking rewards, increasing gas fees and burning all of them), these measures are more of a "too little, too late" fix, and whether they can truly reverse the supply-demand imbalance remains to be seen.
The promotion of "high TPS, low latency, parallel execution" sounds impressive, but real user retention and sustainable transaction demand are not outstanding. Network activity has noticeably cooled during certain periods, and DeFi TVL and daily active user data fail to support the initially high valuation narrative. Many projects remain at the naming or short-term incentive stage, with truly network-effect killer applications still scarce.
It competes head-on with projects in the same track like Sui and Solana. Sui performs stronger in developer activity and some transaction volume metrics; Solana boasts a more mature ecosystem and user base. Aptos's differentiators (Move language, parallel execution) have not translated into a clear moat, making it prone to the awkward situation of "similar technology but weaker ecosystem."
Early node and validator distribution is relatively concentrated, with significant influence from the team and foundation. There is a gap between the decentralization narrative and actual control, posing long-term governance risks that cannot be ignored.
The story of the "new generation high-performance public chain" has been told for too long. In the current market environment, which focuses more on RWA, real revenue, and AI implementation, the pure L1 performance narrative has clearly lost appeal. Capital prefers to flow into tracks with clear cash flow or strong demand rather than continue paying for "potentially soon" adoption.
$ETH $BTC $BTC has bounced back from around 63,000 in the past two days, and among altcoins, only $UB has been somewhat active. The vast majority have remained flat—this indicates that funds within the market have not shown signs of "mainstream profits flowing downwards." Money is just defending within the mainstream; no one dares to increase exposure to higher-risk assets. The real rally is when hotspots light up one after another; the current structure of mainstream volatility and altcoin stability looks more like a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. Don't chase altcoins at this level.📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 3)
According to liquidation data, short-term longs are being brutally crushed, but mid-to-long-term shorts are suffering a massive bloodbath...
Liquidation amounts in the past 1 hour:
Long liquidations approximately $199,400
Short liquidations approximately $373.27
Liquidation amounts in the past 4 hours:
Long liquidations approximately $395,700
Short liquidations approximately $1,141.82
Liquidation amounts in the past 12 hours:
Long liquidations approximately $499,600
Short liquidations approximately $533,100
Liquidation amounts in the past 24 hours:
Long liquidations approximately $542,900
Short liquidations approximately $705,600
From the $XRP liquidation data, in the 1-hour and 4-hour windows, long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass shorts, with long liquidations being 533 and 346 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a nuclear-level intensity of long liquidation at the start; the 12-hour direction suddenly reverses, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts are 1.07 times longs, triggering a short squeeze; over 24 hours, the short advantage further expands to 1.3 times, showing a fierce shift from long liquidation to short squeeze by the whale—short-term longs are targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts are wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $1.24 million. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the reset of the global asset pricing anchor and the intense swing of market confidence—bond markets punishing the Fed, currency markets jointly resisting trends, and stock markets rebounding to the extreme under policy stimulus.
📈 30-Year U.S. Treasury: Top or New Starting Point?
It may not be the end yet.
On July 29, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the 9-3 vote revealed internal division—three regional Fed presidents advocated for a rate hike, the first time since 2016. More importantly, Chair Powell withdrew forward guidance, completely disrupting market expectations.
Three forces driving long-term bond yields soaring:
· Fed credibility damaged: veteran observers bluntly say "Powell’s messaging was unclear, and the bond market reacted mercilessly"
· Side effects of U.S.-Japan joint intervention: may require selling or pledging U.S. Treasuries to obtain liquidity
· U.S.-Iran conflict pushing inflation expectations: high oil prices
The 30-year yield has surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007. JPMorgan has raised its 30-year target to 5.4%; options markets bet on breaking 5.4% before August 21. Brandywine fund manager bluntly states: "Long-end investors don’t believe his inflation-fighting narrative."
💴 U.S.-Japan Confirm Joint Currency Intervention: First Time in 15 Years
On August 3, the U.S. and Japan Treasury Departments simultaneously confirmed joint yen purchases on July 31. This is the first joint intervention since 2011, and the first yen purchase operation since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Japan’s Finance Minister clearly stated: "We will not hesitate to further intervene jointly in the future."
After intervention, the yen rose to the 156 yen per dollar range. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said it "effectively curbed disorderly yen fluctuations," and Trump said "this reflects friendship and benefits the global economy." The last time they joined forces like this was during the Asian financial crisis—the currency market has entered crisis response mode.
📉 KOSPI Intraday Surge 14%: Policy-Driven Extreme Rebound
On July 31, KOSPI closed with a 17.91% surge, the largest single-day gain in history. The South Korean government announced a 20 trillion won (13.9 billion USD) capital injection into the sovereign wealth fund for AI investment; SK Group chairman unusually directly bought SK Hynix shares; combined with U.S.-Japan joint intervention boosting the won.
But on August 3, KOSPI opened down 3.6%, intraday losses widened to 4.52%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 7.8% and 7.5% respectively. An 18% surge one day followed by over 4% drop the next day shows South Korea’s stock market volatility has moved from "extreme" to "disorderly."
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core picture of the global market in early August 2026: bond markets punishing the Fed’s hesitation, currency markets jointly resisting trends, and stock markets rebounding extremely under policy stimulus then quickly giving back gains. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 5.27%, U.S. and Japan jointly intervene in currency markets, KOSPI surges 18% in one day—none of these are normal. When all three markets simultaneously show "abnormal" volatility, the old order is collapsing, the new pricing system is not yet established, and the chaos in between is the only certainty now.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#美日确认联合购汇
#财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 $WLD current price is 0.3111, which is the price after the main upward wave from 0.2264 to 0.7234 retraced 83% — the pattern looks ugly, but the ugliness is in the past, and the pricing no longer includes any expectations. The real change happened at the end of July: daily unlock volume was cut from 5.1 million to 2.9 million tokens, the community share was halved directly, the team and investor quota dropped by 32%, and the daily selling pressure reduced by 2.2 million tokens, effectively removing the hand that had been suppressing the price for the past six months; in the same week, Grayscale submitted the S-1 for a spot WLD ETF, and a $52.5 million strategic coin purchase lock-up for one year was led by Pantera and participated in by Bain Capital Crypto — institutions built positions around 0.3 and cannot dump within a year. Meanwhile, the spot market's 8.35M shrinking volume indicates this round of decline is no longer panic selling; no one is willing to sell at this price.
Looking ahead, the bulls’ odds come from three factors converging in the same window: supply contraction has taken effect, ETF approval has entered substantive process, and OpenAI is expected to go public as early as September, with Altman being the co-founder of Worldcoin. In this year of AI Agent proliferation and “prove you are human” evolving from concept to infrastructure demand, 18 million people have completed iris verification, and World App users have exceeded 34 million in a real network — the only scaled sample in this sector. Technically, only one move is needed to confirm: a volume breakout above 0.3462 (EMA20) sustained for three days, with a mid-term target of 0.3948, and after the trend is established, a target of 0.5514.
If it falls below 0.2944, all the above is invalidated — the prerequisite for the bullish scenario to play out is that the price first proves it has stopped falling. (This is only a bullish perspective analysis, not investment advice.)The overall macro environment is warming up, but the crypto market is weakening against the trend! The root cause lies in the ongoing impact of the Coldcard theft incident on market confidence.
US-Iran negotiations resume easing geopolitical tensions, crude oil and US Treasury yields both weaken, US stock futures rise across the board, and overall risk appetite clearly recovers. However, the crypto market did not rebound on Monday despite the positive news, instead it remained under pressure and declined. The core reason for this round of decline is not macroeconomic negative factors, but the continuous fallout from the Coldcard hardware wallet theft incident, which has hit confidence in on-exchange holdings.
1. Mainstream coins weaken across the board, only BNB holds steady against the trend
1. BTC: Fell from Sunday’s high of $63,600, dipping intraday to $62,800, down 1% for the day and about 4% over the past week;
2. ETH: Dropped over 1%, never able to hold above the $1,900 mark, down nearly 5% over 7 days;
3. XRP: Slightly down nearly 1%, quoted at $1.07; SOL down 0.5% around $73, DOGE also slightly pulled back;
4. Among the few strong performers on the board is BNB, basically flat for the day, with a slight weekly gain of 1.6%;
5. HYPE performed worst, falling to $52.52, with a weekly drop as high as 12.8%.
2. The Coldcard theft incident continues to ferment, becoming the key suppressing factor on the market
The core internal reason for this round of market weakness remains the hardware wallet security breach theft incident:
Currently, three rounds of attacks have stolen a total of 1,367 BTC, valued at nearly $89 million, affecting 4,585 addresses.
The attack pattern is clear: hackers prioritize emptying wallets with large holdings, then gradually sweep smaller balance addresses.
The first round saw 1,196 addresses stolen with 1,083 BTC; the third round involved 1,912 addresses but only 208 BTC stolen in total, with more addresses affected but the amount stolen per address decreasing.
The successive theft incidents have caused many coin holders to worry, increasing risk aversion and intensifying on-exchange cautious sentiment, dragging down buying enthusiasm.
3. The external macro environment is clearly positive, yet the crypto market shows independent weakness
The external market is generally favorable to risk assets:
1. US-Iran talks advance, easing inflation concerns, Brent crude oil plunges 7.3% to $81.55;
2. US 10-year Treasury yield falls 4 basis points to 4.69%; Nasdaq futures and European stock futures rise 0.8%, gold also slightly up.
According to past patterns, falling yields, easing geopolitical tensions, and stock market recovery would support cryptocurrencies. This time BTC ignores the positive factors and adjusts under pressure, showing that the market focus is completely dominated by negative industry security news.
Capital flows also show rare divergence: last Friday, Ethereum spot ETF saw slight net inflows, while Bitcoin ETF continued to experience outflows. Previously BTC was the market barometer, but now capital preferences have clearly diverged.
4. Key directions to watch for the market going forward
1. Short-term key support for Bitcoin is $62,000; whether this level holds is the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness;
2. Continuously track US-Iran negotiation progress; if oil prices continue to fall, the macro environment will further ease;
3. If external positive factors keep emerging but the crypto market still fails to rebound, it means confidence repair from the Coldcard security incident will require a longer time.
#BTCRealTimeMarket #HardwareWalletSecurityAlert #MacroMarketAnalysis $BTC $ETH $HYPE $SKHYNIX $SNDK Today SK Hynix opened lower and continued to decline, at one point falling to about 1,563,000 KRW, ultimately closing down about 7.7%, with almost no decent rebound throughout the day, indicating heavy selling pressure.
There are three main reasons for the decline:
The global AI chip sector continues to face profit-taking, with funds withdrawing from high-valuation tech stocks.
The Korean semiconductor sector collectively fell, with Samsung Electronics and Hynix weakening simultaneously, dragging down the KOSPI index sharply.
The market is still digesting recent changes in semiconductor industry expectations, and investor risk appetite has clearly decreased.
Impact on SanDisk in the US stock market tonight
Short-term bearish, but not decisive.
The impact mainly lies in:
Bearish opening sentiment After the Korean market closes, US investors usually pay attention to the performance of Asian semiconductor stocks. If Hynix falls sharply, it often puts pressure on storage stocks like SanDisk and Micron in pre-market trading.
Storage chip sector tends to move together Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all belong to the storage industry chain. Although their business structures differ, funds usually trade by sector, so they tend to rise and fall together.
Watch whether the US market opens low and then rises If the Nasdaq stabilizes tonight and AI leaders like Nvidia and Micron stop falling after the open, SanDisk has a chance to rebound after a low open; otherwise, if the Nasdaq continues to decline, SanDisk may continue to test lower support.
I'll open a short position first to see how things go; the key is how the US market performs tonight 🚨 Ethereum is at a crossroads — and the next move could decide whether bulls wake up or bears take control.
This is the moment where patience matters more than prediction.
ETH is currently trapped between two important levels:
🟢 Support: $1,851
🔴 Resistance: $1,898
Here’s the game plan:
🐂 Bullish case:
If ETH breaks above $1,898 and holds, it could signal that buyers are finally stepping back in and open the path toward higher levels.
🐻 Bearish case:
If ETH loses $1,851, sellers may regain control and push price toward the next support zones.
Right now, the market is still in wait-and-see mode.
No need to force a trade.
No need to chase a breakout.
The best setups often come when you let the market reveal its direction first.
Watch the levels. Watch the liquidity. Let price confirm.
So where do you stand?
🐂 ETH bullish from here?
🐻 Or are you expecting another leg lower?
👇 Share your view.
#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #Trading #DailyOrbit This week's outlook from the dead bulls:
1. The most, most, most important thing this week is Friday's CPI. If it's below expectations, at least the rate hike noise can quiet down for two weeks until the PCE data is released at the end of the month. I've never worried about the data; since Trump took office, there haven't been many surprises. From what I remember, there was only one bad data point in all this time. On this point, I still trust Trump very much 🤦
2. This week there are SPCX earnings and unlocks. The golden pit likely created by the unlock dump could be a buying opportunity.
3. I am very optimistic about the storage sector throughout August. After telling ghost stories for a month, capital expenditures didn't decrease but increased, and long-term contracts keep coming one after another. With fundamentals improving, stock prices are getting lower and lower, which is the best investment opportunity.
4. The US-Iran war keeps going back and forth. I've long been too lazy to watch it. For those still worried about the US-Iran war, you can refer to the Russia-Ukraine or Iraq wars—one is still ongoing, the other lasted eight years. Actually, there's not much difference 🤦
Finally, don't sell your stocks; leave the rest to time.
Buy the dip, hold long-term Today's core news development comes from the US-Iran situation. Trump has temporarily postponed a new round of strikes against Iran, causing Brent crude oil to fall back to around $83.87, temporarily easing energy inflation pressure. However, this feels more like a pause button on the conflict rather than a complete withdrawal of risk. The navigation and control disputes in the Strait of Hormuz have not been truly resolved, and US-Iran negotiations could fluctuate again at any time due to new attacks. Therefore, the oil price decline is a temporary positive for risk assets but not enough to directly support a market turnaround.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. On Tuesday this week, JOLTS job openings will be released, and on Friday, July's nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate data will be published. Before the employment data is released, the market will not easily price in a rate cut in advance. The crypto market itself also faces selling pressure. The transfer of 2,628 BTC from Trump Media to exchanges and the fund migration triggered by the Coldcard security incident are increasing short-term spot supply uncertainty. Today's situation can be summarized in one sentence: the ebbing oil price brings a breather, but employment data still hangs overhead; the wind has calmed for a moment, but the waves have not truly passed. US-Iran situation and oil price changes, US labor data schedule.
The long-short position structure has reversed into crowded positions today. The latest data shows that long accounts have gradually risen from 65.9% earlier in the day to 66.6%, while short accounts have dropped to 33.4%, with a long-short ratio close to 2:1. More worrisome is that during the dip of BTC price toward around 62,716, contract open interest did not significantly decrease; instead, it increased from about 109,100 to 109,400 BTC. The latest funding rate has also returned close to a positive 0.01%. This indicates that the decline has not fully deleveraged, and more accounts are choosing to continue bottom-fishing below 63,000. If the price climbs back above 64,000, these long positions could support a rebound; but if 62,000 is broken, the crowded longs will turn from support into liquidation fuel, potentially accelerating the decline significantly.日元今天出现快速上涨。 很多人第一反应： 日本终于把日元救回来了。 市场更应该关注另外一件事： 谁在卖？谁在平仓？ 过去几年，日元长期低利率。 大量资金借入日元，然后去买： 美股、科技股、高收益资产，甚至加密市场。 这就是经典的“日元套利交易”。 问题来了： 如果日元只是慢慢升值，影响有限。 但如果像现在这样快速上涨，很多套利资金会面临一个问题： 借的钱突然变贵了。 于是可能出现： 卖出风险资产 ↓ 买回日元还债 ↓ 进一步推动日元上涨 形成一个循环。 所以： 这次日元上涨，表面是日本央行的问题。 背后可能是全球资金重新调整的问题。 我的判断： 🇯🇵 日元：短期明显利多。 🇺🇸 美元：偏空。 黄金：中性偏多。 $BTC： 短线中性偏空。 原因不是比特币基本面变差，而是如果全球套利资金开始降低风险，最先受到影响的通常是高波动资产。 $ETH、$SOL： 风险更高。 不过也不用过度恐慌。 真正需要观察的是： 日元上涨之后，美股和BTC有没有出现持续资金流出。 如果市场能消化日元升值，说明这只是汇率调整。 如果风险资产同步下跌，那可能意味着： 这不是日元行情，而是全球流动性正在重新定$ETH has been fluctuating repeatedly between 1800-1900 over the past two days, with bulls and bears evenly matched.
Currently, the strong resistance zone is at 1910-1930. There was a rebound this morning but it failed to break through 1900.
The key support zone below is at 1800-1810; if broken, it may slide down to 1750.
Current bullish and bearish logic:
Reasons for bullishness:
① The US and Iran are scheduled to negotiate on August 3, causing Brent crude oil to plunge over 7% to $81.55, suppressing geopolitical premiums;
② Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $365 million in July, more than twice that of Bitcoin ETFs, and the coin price stabilized and rebounded from around $1865, with lows gradually rising, indicating short-term structural recovery is still ongoing.
Reasons for bearishness:
① The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 73.6%, with the FOMC showing the first "three hawks in a row" signal since 2016;
② Ethereum ETF only had a $400,000 inflow last week, with momentum sharply declining, while Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $600,000 last week; if the market is under pressure, ETH will likely follow Bitcoin down;
③ Iran claims Trump's "cancellation of strikes" is a "lie," the status of the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered, and if negotiations break down, oil prices may still surge.
The short-term direction now depends on the negotiation results this afternoon. According to Wei Ge's judgment, the probability of easing in this negotiation is low; if it falls short of expectations, the market will most likely experience another drop. #美日确认联合购汇 Crypto Daily · 2026.08.03 Monday
1. One-sentence summary today
Mainstream coins slightly declined, bulls net loss exceeded 90 million, no surprises at Monday's open, just a slow grind.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral to bearish
BTC and ETH have fallen for seven consecutive days, bulls' positions are losing far more than shorts, no signs of sentiment recovery.
3. Core market today
BTC: $63,070 | 24h -0.63% | Holding above 63k without breaking down, but volume is insufficient, staying flat is just wearing down the bulls
ETH: $1,861 | 24h -0.83% | Fell 3% over seven days, relatively weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC rate continues downward, not looking good
Strongest sector today: BNB ecosystem | BNB | +0.46% (the strongest gain in the market, indicating very little bullish enthusiasm today)
Weakest sector today: Small-cap Meme/altcoins | ACX, HFT, VIC | -17% or more (low liquidity coins die first, a batch was cut today)
4. Most important news today
[News 1]
[Title] Trump announces US-Iran talks to start tomorrow, preliminary agreement reached on Strait of Hormuz
[Impact] Short-term geopolitical risk marginally reduced, oil price pressure relieved, risk asset sentiment has slight boost potential; but "talks" do not equal "implementation," market won't price in heavily in advance
[My judgment] Market reaction is currently insufficient. If this news materializes, it is a phased positive for crypto and US stocks—once Hormuz stabilizes, energy inflation expectations drop, Fed easing space opens. But BTC is only slightly rebounding near 63k, showing market hasn't taken this seriously yet. I tend to see this as an underestimated signal worth watching tomorrow's negotiation progress.
[News 2]
[Title] China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in July, below previous 51.7
[Impact] China's manufacturing expansion slows, global risk appetite under short-term pressure, marginally negative for crypto market
[My judgment] Reaction is basically reasonable, not excessive. This data is not a collapse, still above the boom-bust line, but the direction is downward. Combined with last week's weakness in US stocks and crypto, this data just adds another cut to already bearish sentiment, not a main driver.
[News 3]
[Title] Binance launches GIGADEV perpetual contracts, Gate Alpha issues new tokens OFFICIAL, JORDAN, etc.
[Impact] Short-term speculative sentiment for related small coins, but overall market environment is weak, sustainability of such listings is questionable
[My judgment] Market reaction may be excessive—when mainstream coins are falling, chasing these small coins is likely a bet on short-term pump, entrants should consider if they are the last to jump in.
5. Signals worth attention today
Signal 1:
Signal: BTC bulls' net position loss exceeds $81 million, shorts net profit $42 million, severe divergence in bull-bear PnL
Why worth attention: Bulls losing money but not exiting means either holding hard or trapped—under this structure, if price drops further, it may trigger chain stop-losses
Tracking period: short-term
Signal 2:
Signal: ETH seven-day drop (-3.02%) significantly greater than BTC (-1.31%), ETH/BTC rate continues weakening
Why worth attention: ETH's sustained weakness relative to BTC often means overall market risk appetite is contracting, making altcoins harder to have independent rallies
Tracking period: mid-term
Signal 3:
Signal: US-Iran talks officially start tomorrow, Trump mentions "agreement" on Strait of Hormuz
Why worth attention: Geopolitical risk is a key suppressor of risk assets this year; if talks make substantial progress, it could trigger the next rebound
Tracking period: short-term
6. Key events preview for tomorrow
🕐 [Tomorrow afternoon, Tuesday morning Beijing time] US-Iran official talks start → Expected impact: bullish, if geopolitical easing materializes, risk assets benefit short-term, but watch details, don't chase early
🕐 [August 4, 16:00-16:30 UTC] Gate spot trading engine upgrade maintenance → Expected impact: neutral, short downtime, limited effect
🕐 This week focus: Fed officials' speech window → Expected impact: neutral to slightly bullish/bearish uncertain, if officials signal rate cuts, crypto will react; otherwise, continue grinding
7. Today's view
Honestly, I don't have much special to do with today's market. BTC holds 63k, but bulls net lost over 80 million, this money didn't disappear out of thin air, someone is holding it. Holding means support, failing means a stampede. Tomorrow's US-Iran talks is the only thing I think worth watching today; knowledge never earns money beyond knowledge—if no one cares about this news, that might be the opportunity.Closing prices on July 31. Amazon at $271.58, just 2.5% below its 52-week high. Oracle at $129.87, down 62.4% from its high.
One is almost at the top, the other has dropped by 60%.
If the logic of this AI rally is "whoever buys more chips wins," these two numbers can't both be true.
$ORCL is a high-risk, high-reward asset; I hold it and buy the dip. Wall Street fears losing money, depreciation pressure is rising, and revenue isn't keeping pace.
Additionally, $ORCL's credit rating is classified as junk. As a retail secondary investor, we precisely seize opportunities that make institutions fearful, allowing us to stay half a step ahead of Wall Street.
$ORCL's fiscal year 2026 ends in May, during which it spent $55.663 billion on capital expenditures, compared to only $21.215 billion the previous fiscal year. Operating cash flow hasn't kept up, resulting in a free cash flow gap of $23.686 billion.
Filling this gap relies on borrowing. As of the end of May, Oracle owed $156.2 billion, while the actual equity invested and retained in the company by shareholders was only $43.1 billion. The borrowed amount is 3.6 times the equity.
You can imagine, if so many buildings were renovated and the money can't be recovered, Oracle would be in trouble.
The same card, different sales approach, different accounts.#30-year US Treasury Bonds, Top or New Starting Point?
August 3, 2026 | 30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high, global assets face stress test
Recently, the 30-year US Treasury yield has been rising continuously, reaching the highest level in nearly 19 years, becoming the focus of the global financial market. The rise in long-term US Treasury yields reflects market concerns about US inflation, fiscal deficits, and long-term interest rate levels. Data shows that the 30-year Treasury yield recently broke above around 5.2%, with the market repricing the "duration of high interest rates." (The Wall Street Journal)
From a trading perspective, the biggest impact of rising Treasury yields is tightening liquidity. As the global risk-free asset pricing benchmark, higher Treasury yields increase funding costs, suppressing high-valuation tech stocks and risk asset performance. Meanwhile, changes in dollar liquidity also transmit to the crypto market, with assets like BTC and ETH potentially facing short-term capital flight pressure.
However, from another angle, intense market volatility often presents opportunity windows. High yields mean the bond market is seeking a new balance; if future economic data weakens and the market re-trades rate cut expectations, risk assets may rebound.
For traders, the current focus should be on Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and Federal Reserve policy signals. Don’t be swayed by short-term sentiment; true trend opportunities often appear when market divergence is greatest.
Key takeaway: The rise in 30-year Treasury yields is a risk signal and a market repricing process. Control position sizes in the short term and watch for opportunities brought by liquidity shifts in the medium to long term. 🚀 Why Is $BTC Futures Yield Trading Below 2-Year Treasuries?
The chart from #Glassnode highlights an unusual market condition: Bitcoin's 3-month futures basis has remained below the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield since February, marking the second-longest period on record (currently ~157 days). This suggests that traders are demanding less premium to hold $BTC futures than the return offered by "risk-free" government bonds.
What does this mean?
Normally, $BTC futures trade at a premium because investors expect higher future prices. A higher futures basis reflects bullish sentiment and strong demand for leveraged long positions.
Today, however, the opposite is happening. The futures basis remains below Treasury yields, indicating that:
🔸Leverage demand is relatively weak.
🔸Institutional traders are being more selective with risk.
🔸Capital is flowing toward safer assets offering attractive fixed returns.
In short, the derivatives market is still cautious despite Bitcoin holding at elevated price levels.
Why is this important?
The last comparable period occurred during the 2022 bear market, when futures yields stayed below Treasury yields for around 160 days. That period ultimately coincided with Bitcoin forming its cycle bottom before entering a new bull market.
This doesn't mean history will repeat exactly, but it does show that low futures premiums often appear when market sentiment is overly conservative, even while long-term accumulation continues.
📌 Current Market Takeaway
Unlike 2022, Bitcoin is not trading near cycle lows. Price remains relatively strong while futures premiums stay compressed. This divergence suggests the market has not entered an overheated phase.
Without excessive leverage, the risk of large long-liquidation cascades is lower, creating a healthier foundation if spot demand continues to strengthen.
Sometimes the strongest bull markets begin when almost nobody is willing to pay a premium.
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