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⚡ CRYPTO MARKET: COMPRESSION BEFORE THE NEXT BIG MOVE Wednesday's session is shaping up as a major test for crypto. $BTC remains locked inside a stubborn range around $62K–$66K, while $ETH and major altcoins are also struggling to establish direction. The lack of a decisive move isn't necessarily weakness — it shows traders are waiting for a catalyst strong enough to force repricing. 🔥 CPI IS THE TRIGGER U.S. July CPI is today's central macro event. Economists expect headline inflation to ease to roughly 3.4% YoY, from 3.5% in June, with core CPI around 2.5%. A softer print could reinforce expectations for easier policy and improve the liquidity backdrop for risk assets. A hotter reading could push yields higher, reduce rate-cut optimism and expose leveraged crypto positions to another bout of volatility. 🏦 CAPITAL IS STILL SHOWING UP The bullish side of the equation hasn't disappeared. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $853.5M during the week ended August 7 — their strongest weekly inflow since April. Ethereum ETFs added about $244.9M over the same period. Yet $BTC hasn't broken higher. That divergence matters. Institutional demand is present, but selling pressure and macro uncertainty are preventing it from translating into sustained upside. ⚠️ THE MARKET'S REAL TEST Today's CPI isn't important simply because of the inflation number. What matters is the chain reaction: CPI → Fed expectations → Treasury yields → liquidity → crypto positioning. If that chain turns supportive, the current consolidation could become the launchpad for a broader move. If inflation surprises higher, the range could become a distribution zone instead. For now, patience matters more than chasing candles. The market is compressed. The catalyst is here. Now watch how capital reacts. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #BTC #ETH #Crypto #CPI #Fed #ETF #CryptoMarket #Altcoins Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on Jun 1 shifts the debate from whether an IPO is coming to what public investors will demand from it. Reports of a possible September or early October listing and a latest private valuation near $965B create a demanding setup: rapid AI growth may support the headline, but public markets will also scrutinize compute intensity, competitive durability and capital efficiency. My read is that revenue growth alone will not settle the valuation question; the quality and cost of that growth will matter just as much. Not advice, just analysis. #AnthropicIPOValuation Over the past week, cross-asset markets have seen a significant repricing. In July, the US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, far below the market expectation of +80,000, and in May and June, the total was revised down by 103,000; After the employment data was released, the dollar weakened significantly, while gold rose 2.55% that day to around $4,347. Gold rose from around $4,086 on August 4 to around $4,380 now, with a phase gain of over 7%. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil surged 4.99% in a single day on August 10 and is still close to $90. But don't simply interpret this as: "Global capital is simultaneously fleeing the dollar and buying all hard assets." Gold prices rose mainly due to weak employment, interest rate expectations, and safe-haven demand; The rise in crude oil was mostly due to supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. The latter could even push future inflation higher, putting negative pressure on BTC and tech stocks. What truly deserves research is BTC. From August 3 to 7, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $865 million, with IBIT contributing about 80%; However, BTC is still only about $63,800 and has yet to effectively break out of the $63,000–65,000 range. This indicates a very critical contradiction in the market: some macro variables are starting to turn favorable, institutional spot funds are buying, but prices have not yet shown a corresponding breakout. I won't conclude that "BTC will catch up immediately" just because of this. Because: while more positive news is increasing, prices are becoming less sensitive, which itself is information ETF Demand Is Holding Up. On-Chain Selling Isn't Going Away. Crypto markets are entering an increasingly interesting phase. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted roughly $1.1 billion in inflows last week. Yet beneath the surface, the picture is becoming more nuanced. Bitcoin ETFs recently experienced net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs continued attracting fresh capital. At the same time, blockchain data shows large holders and miner wallets continuing to transfer significant amounts of BTC to exchanges. This creates two competing forces. Institutional products continue providing structural demand. On-chain participants continue supplying liquidity. The result is a market increasingly defined by balance rather than momentum. The next major catalyst may not be ETF flows alone. Macro conditions—particularly this week's CPI report—could determine whether institutional demand is strong enough to absorb ongoing selling pressure. The four-year cycle still matters. But the interaction between ETFs, on-chain flows and macro liquidity may matter even more. Do you think ETF demand will continue offsetting on-chain selling through the remainder of this cycle? Share your thoughts below 👇 #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge Tonight's market was like the night before an exam where everyone held their breath. Do you think the market is waiting for CPI scores or a reason to gain the courage to increase holdings? Honestly, the market has been a bit tricky these past couple of days. BTC is hovering around 64K, not looking like it's about to break down, nor does it have the strength to surge. This kind of narrow oscillation rhythm is the most exhausting. It doesn't feel like a trend start, nor is it a complete distribution; it's more like a pre-storm game zone—bulls and bears are both tightening their fists, waiting for an external force to break the balance. Tonight's US July CPI is the external force. The market's pricing logic is straightforward: inflation data → US Treasury yields → Fed expectations → Wall Street risk appetite → crypto market. Every link in this chain is tightly stretched. If CPI is hotter than expected and yields rise, risk assets will likely be crushed, BTC may test lower support, and altcoins will see their decline amplify. But if the data is weak, it's different—rate cut expectations are reignited, and capital shifts from defensive to offensive. But I want to mention a detail that many people overlook. Even as BTC lingered within a narrow range, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $853 million last week. What does this signal indicate? This shows that institutions are not chasing gains, but are accumulating shares during the volatility. They are not buying at current prices, but on the path of future rate cuts. So my observation is that this is not a trending market, but a typical accumulation phase. This kind of thing Trump's media company suffered a massive $238 million loss in crypto in one quarter and announced overnight that it’s "quitting". If your company lost $238 million in one quarter, with $190 million of that due to Bitcoin's drop— would you panic? Trump Media just released a "spectacular" Q2 report. A net loss of $238 million in Q2. Of that, over $190 million came from the decline in value of Bitcoin, other digital assets, and stock holdings. As of June 30, the company held 9,477.16 Bitcoins, with a fair value of about $557.1 million. At the end of March, the holding was 9,542 Bitcoins. In one quarter, it dropped by 65 coins. The cumulative crypto asset-related loss in the first half of the year is $360.6 million. But the most interesting part isn’t the loss figure itself. It’s how the company explains it. The financial report clearly states: these losses are "unrealized paper losses"—meaning, as long as Bitcoin recovers, the money will come back. In plain language: I haven’t really lost money, it just looks bad on paper. But shareholders don’t see it that way. After the earnings release, DJT’s stock price fell 6.57%, closing at $3.70. As of the close on August 11, the stock price was $8.91, with a market cap of $2.476 billion. At the start of 2024, the stock price was $70.90. That’s an 87% drop. To be honest—what kind of company is Trump Media now? Its core business, Truth Social, saw monthly active users drop 36% year-over-year. Its Q2 revenue was only $1.7 million, up 89% year-over-year. An 89% increase sounds impressive, right? But $1.7 million in revenue isn’t even enough to cover a fraction of the losses. All its revenue comes from the streaming service Truth+, ETF management fees, and subscriptions. Essentially, this is a media company propped up by Bitcoin’s market value. And Bitcoin has dropped 46% in the past year. It also holds 756 million Cronos tokens, whose value shrank from $68 million at the end of 2025 to $40.6 million. Cronos dropped 72% in the past year. A media company’s financials dragged down by two cryptocurrencies. But what’s more noteworthy is— Trump Media is adjusting its strategy. The report clearly states: the company plans to adjust its Bitcoin reserve strategy, using options and other tools to reduce volatility. What does that mean? From "holding tight" to "dynamic management." And it’s not just Trump Media. Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has seen its stock price drop 76%, selling about $430 million in Bitcoin since June. The logic behind corporate Bitcoin holdings is shifting from "faith" to "business." For us, if more and more public companies start dynamically managing their Bitcoin holdings— will Bitcoin’s volatility increase or decrease? I believe: short-term volatility will increase, long-term stability will improve. Because dynamic management essentially means buying low and selling high. When Bitcoin rises, the company sells some to lock in profits. When Bitcoin falls, the company buys some to lower the average cost. This will cause prices to fluctuate more frequently within a range but reduce extreme market moves. In other words—Bitcoin is transforming from a "casino" into a "normal asset on the balance sheet." And Trump Media is a live example of this transformation. Finally— Trump Media’s $238 million loss teaches all corporate holders a lesson: Bitcoin is not faith; it’s an asset. Assets fluctuate, fluctuations affect financial reports, and financial reports affect stock prices. And when stock prices fall, shareholders vote with their feet. You think you’re HODLing. But actually, you’re managing market cap. If more companies start "dynamically managing" their Bitcoin holdings, do you think that’s good or bad for BTC? Gold is rising, but Citi says: silver is the better way to express it. The latest report from Citi Research points out that the upside trading of precious metals is not yet over, and silver, with its greater volatility flexibility, will become an "amplifier" for gold's rise. Key Point: Silver is a High Beta Version of Gold Citi believes silver will continue to follow gold's direction, but due to its greater volatility resilience, it will show more aggressive upward movement. Simply put: if gold rises, silver may rise even more. Current price reference: COMEX August gold: $4,383/oz (+0.49%) Silver: $64.77/oz (-0.5%, ending a two-day winning streak) Citigroup characterizes the short-term pullback in silver as a "technical adjustment" and does not change its structurally bullish logic. Three Prerequisites: Citi believes that a rise in silver requires the following conditions: First, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz must eventually cool. The easing of geopolitical risks will drive capital back into the precious metals market. Second, the Fed's stance is no longer as hawkish. The direction of interest rate expectations is a core variable in precious metal pricing. Third, investment demand continues to recover. Under the premise of meeting these two conditions, investment demand for precious metals will continue to recover. If these conditions are met, Citi expects silver to rise to $95 per ounce in 2027. Risk scenario: 20% chance of falling to $50 Citigroup also maintains a risk scenario: silver still has about a 20% chance to fall to $50 per ounce. This risk depends on: interest rate forecasts $BEAT plummets are coming, many people are hesitant—should you cut losses and run, or hold on a bit longer? If you really want to trade well, you can't be defeated by momentary fear. Let's look at the data: BEAT crashed today, hitting a 24-hour low of 1.21, with seven consecutive daily bearish candles. MA5, MA10, MA20, MA30, MA60, MA120—all moving averages are pressing above the price, a classic bearish alignment. It looks like the time to run. Some choose to cut losses, others choose to hold. Both choices have their reasons. Those who think it will go to zero focus on the seven consecutive bearish days, an 80% drop, and panic selling flooding out. From 6.18 down to 1.21, longs are deeply underwater, bottom hunters caught halfway down, both bulls and bears are suffering. Those expecting a rebound look at the RSI hitting extreme lows, price deviating too far from moving averages, and extremely uniform bearish sentiment. History doesn't lie! Every time an extreme appears, a rebound follows—just no one knows if it’s today or tomorrow. I personally choose not to cut. I entered a long at 1.078; just checked my account, mark price is 1.2944, floating profit has reached 60.27%. The liquidation price is still intact, floating profit is just a number, RSI is already extreme, the rebound is starting. But I also understand that if fundamentals worsen, 1.21 might not be the bottom. So cutting or holding has no standard answer, only your own logic. After ten years fixing cars, I know one thing—the engine isn’t seized yet, so don’t rush to declare it totaled. The car isn’t falling apart; a little welding can still keep it running. The more desperate the situation, the more you need to stay steady. No matter how big the storm, it will stop eventually; just no one knows when. Mechanics don’t lie to mechanics—a good car is fixed, profits are waited for!! Waiting for good news, brothers!!🚀 $ETH $BICO #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The most important event in the market today is tonight's US July Consumer Price Index. The weak non-farm payrolls just gave the market some relief, but the stalemate in the Hormuz negotiations pushed Brent crude oil close to $90, and hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are also increasing. Employment is cooling down, but oil prices are rising, so tonight's inflation data is crucial: if it's below expectations, the pressure to raise interest rates will continue to ease; if it's above expectations, the market will have to face high interest rates again. On the other hand, artificial intelligence is relatively strong. Lumentum (LITE) revenue grew about 109% year-over-year, CoreWeave grew 112% with a backlog exceeding $100 billion, indicating that the AI capital expenditures from the giants are turning into real orders for optical communications, computing power, and data centers. Next, keep an eye on Coherent, Cisco, and Applied Materials to verify how strong the demand for AI infrastructure really is in this cycle. Bitcoin continues to hover around $64,000; tonight, the main focus is on how the dollar and US Treasury yields move after the inflation data is released. Gold stands near $4,400, supported by safe-haven demand and easing expectations, but if inflation exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations heat up again, there will be short-term pressure. Macro factors determine the short-term direction, artificial intelligence determines the long-term main theme, just keep an eye on the inflation data. BTC, ETH, and AI hardware suddenly rise together: Is it a CPI leak, or funds rushing ahead? One detail worth noting today: BTC rebounded from a low of $63,204 to about $63,794; pre-market US stocks SNDK +2.66%, MRVL +1.78%, LITE +0.83%, and Nasdaq futures also rose about 0.4%. Why is it getting stronger? First, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from yesterday's high of 4.735% to about 4.68%, temporarily easing valuation pressure on growth stocks. Second, AI hardware has independent fundamentals: SNDK's data center revenue surged about 400% year-over-year; LITE's latest quarterly revenue was $1.01 billion, up 109% year-over-year; MRVL continues to benefit from AI custom chips, storage, and high-speed interconnect demand. So I tend to believe: This is funds increasing Risk-On exposure again before CPI, rather than "knowing the answer in advance." The real verification is still after 20:30— If CPI is favorable, US Treasuries continue to fall, Nasdaq and BTC continue to rise, that’s trend confirmation; if the data is good but prices collectively spike then fall, today’s rise looks more like excessive pre-trading. Pre-market gains are expectations; the follow-through after the data is the answer. $ETH #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $STORJ $FIL $AR First, the core key points: STORJ belongs to the decentralized storage sector. At the end of July, the project company Storj Labs filed for bankruptcy reorganization (Chapter 11), which is the biggest recent risk and the largest source of market uncertainty. Fundamentals overview Advantages Focuses on compatibility with the S3 protocol, fast retrieval speed, targeting enterprise hot data storage; unlike FIL, it does not require staking mining, has a low node threshold, and has more real paying customers than many storage projects. Critical negative The operating company has entered bankruptcy reorganization; the official proposal is that tokens can be converted into company equity, but this requires court approval, and whether it can be implemented and its value are completely unknown. Although it is publicly stated that the storage network will operate normally in the short term, R&D and business expansion have basically stalled. Sector situation The storage sector overall has low capital attention, with competitors FIL and AR continuously diverting funds; without continuous new positive news, it is difficult to break out into a trending market. Market status The price movement characteristics are very clear: It is prone to pulse rebounds triggered by news, but the sustainability is poor. Positive rebounds and rapid drops on negative news, with huge volatility. It generally follows the market uptrend weakly; once market sentiment weakens, selling pressure easily amplifies. Currently, it is not a main target for capital consolidation. Practical objective view The biggest risk is not technical but the follow-up progress of the bankruptcy reorganization; news can cause sudden spikes at any time; Only suitable for very small positions to speculate on short-term rebounds from news, not suitable for long-term holding or accumulation; Compared to other storage sector tokens, capital is currently less willing to invest in STORJ, with uncertainty far higher than other coins. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级 Yen Collapse: A Man-Made Currency Disaster By 2026, the yen has completely become a laughingstock in the global financial markets. In late July, the USD/JPY rate surged to 164, marking the weakest level in nearly 40 years since 1986. This is not "market volatility" but a public execution of Japan's long-term currency system failure. Subsequently, the US and Japan jointly intervened with nearly $90 billion to forcibly pull the exchange rate back to around 155, but within less than two weeks, more than half of the gains were lost, and it fell back to the 159 range. The intervention was like injecting adrenaline into a terminal patient—providing a brief boost but ultimately powerless to save it. Why has the yen deteriorated so badly? The root cause lies entirely within Japan itself. The Consequences of Long-Term Monetary Abuse The Bank of Japan has played with ultra-loose policies for decades—negative interest rates, yield curve control, massive bond purchases—turning the yen into the cheapest arbitrage fuel globally. Now, even though the policy rate has finally risen to 1%, it still lags far behind the Federal Reserve's 3.5%-3.75%. The huge interest rate differential acts like a pump, continuously draining funds out of the yen. The scale of arbitrage trading is enormous; speculators borrow yen to buy all kinds of high-yield assets, making the yen a tool for rampant short selling. More ironically, while the Japanese government verbally condemns "excessive volatility," it continues to open the fiscal taps wide. With high debt, an aging population, and weak growth, market trust in Japan's long-term repayment ability has long collapsed. The yen is no longer the safe-haven currency it once was but a "weak currency" that can be abandoned at any time. Weak Yen: Winners Take All, Ordinary People Pay Who benefits from the weak yen? Large export companies and multinational conglomerates. Overseas profits of automotive and electronics giants surge when converted back to yen, stock prices soar, and financial reports look good. Inbound tourists celebrate and shop extravagantly. Who pays the price? Ordinary Japanese households. Import prices for energy and food have skyrocketed, electricity, gas, and supermarket bills keep rising, real wages lag behind, and living costs continuously erode purchasing power. Small and medium-sized enterprises are suffocated by raw material costs. The so-called "export benefits" have become a feast for the elite, while ordinary people pay a high price for currency depreciation. Analysis even shows that the net impact of the weak yen on real GDP over the past year may be negative—the damage from rising costs has long outweighed the meager contribution from exports. This is the true face of yen depreciation: a redistribution that transfers wealth from ordinary people to export conglomerates. Ineffective Intervention, Credit Bankruptcy The Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan have repeatedly entered the market to "defend" the yen, spending over 11 trillion yen in April and May, and again jointly intervening with the US at the end of July in record amounts. The result? The effect was quickly washed away by the market like sand. Institutions like Goldman Sachs have bluntly stated: unless the interest rate gap truly narrows, depreciation pressure will repeatedly return. Intervention only buys time with money, exposing the emptiness of the policy toolbox and the powerlessness of decision-makers. More dangerously, there are spillover effects. Sharp yen fluctuations could trigger large-scale arbitrage liquidations at any time, instantly tightening global liquidity and potentially impacting stock, bond, and crypto markets. Crypto investors especially need to be cautious—the weak yen may superficially boost some risk assets, but once a liquidation wave hits, the highly leveraged crypto market often bleeds first. The Essence of the Yen: A Structurally Failed Currency The yen's current plight is not accidental but the inevitable result of Japan's long refusal to face structural problems: unwillingness to truly normalize monetary policy, unwillingness to thoroughly reform fiscal policy, and unwillingness to confront deep crises in demographics and productivity. Using currency as a stimulus tool for decades has ultimately exhausted its monetary credibility. Among major global currencies, the yen has fallen from a "safe asset" to a patient repeatedly needing "rescue." For the crypto market, this reminds us that the fragility of fiat systems has never disappeared. When a major currency can be so easily shorted and interventions remain powerless, the value storage attribute of decentralized assets becomes even clearer. The yen continues its downward path. When the next shock arrives, the injured will not be limited to Japanese households; global markets may be forced to pay the price for this currency failure.Cash withdrawal available in over 170 countries: This time Solana is connecting not DeFi, but MoneyGram Previously, when people said Crypto "connects to the real world," it was often just a concept. This time it's much simpler: MoneyGram has connected its cash network to Solana. In wallets and apps that support MoneyGram Ramps, on-chain assets can be converted into local cash, and cash can also enter the Crypto ecosystem. The numbers are more intuitive: cash deposits currently cover more than 25 countries, and cash withdrawals cover over 170 countries and regions. MoneyGram itself has over 60 million customers and nearly 500,000 offline locations. For ordinary users, this can be summed up in one sentence: money on the chain is one step closer to real-world cash. Why do I think this is more important than "Solana connected to another protocol"? Because the real large-scale use of Crypto is not just about how fast on-chain transfers are, but whether ordinary people can easily bring money in and out. For example, in cross-border remittances, freelancer payments, or regions without convenient bank accounts, recipients can in the future directly connect on-chain funds to the MoneyGram cash network through supported apps. But don’t overhype the news as "all Solana wallets can now directly withdraw cash." Currently, Rift is the first officially connected wallet, and the "over 170 countries" refers to cash withdrawal coverage, while cash deposits currently cover more than 25 countries. What really needs to be watched next is whether Phantom, exchanges, and more payment apps will follow and integrate. I prefer to see this as a piece of infrastructure for Solana’s payment narrative. [Scenario A] If more and more wallets and exchanges connect, Solana will look more like a payment network linking stablecoins and real cash; [Scenario B] If only a few apps actually use it in the end, then this remains just infrastructure news, and the impact on SOL’s price may be limited. SOL is currently around $76, with Binance data showing about +0.33% in 24 hours. Based on the current short-term range, I first look at $74.5–75 support and $77–78 resistance; if it can hold above $77, I will turn bullish, but if it falls below $74.5, it means this positive news has not yet translated into price strength. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 After the CPI release, I won’t rush to adjust my positions; instead, I’ll first observe how the market reacts. Many people trading CPI tend to bet in advance before the data is released, thinking that if it’s below expectations, the market will rise, and if it’s above expectations, it will fall. But in actual trading, the news is just a catalyst; what truly determines the market direction is how capital reacts to that news. My view: after the CPI release, I won’t immediately make large position adjustments but will first watch if a new market trend forms. If the CPI is below expectations, the market starts trading in rate cut expectations, the US dollar weakens, US Treasury yields decline, and BTC breaks through key levels with volume — this indicates real capital inflow, and following the trend can be considered. However, if the data is good but BTC rallies then falls back, or the US dollar doesn’t weaken significantly, it means the market may have already priced in the good news, and chasing the rally could easily lead to being trapped. Similarly, if the CPI is above expectations and there’s a short-term drop, I won’t blindly panic and reduce positions; instead, I’ll check whether the decline is accompanied by sustained capital outflow or just an emotional release. After trading for so long, I increasingly believe that the important thing is not to predict every piece of news but to see the market’s answer after the news comes out. Position adjustments should be based on trend changes, not simply on a single data point. Good trading isn’t about catching the first wave every time but about taking corresponding actions after certainty increases. The crypto community has been doing something strange these past two days: collectively lobbying AI giants to give BTC developers "early access". BTC at $63,852, volume down 83% with extremely low volume, lying like a corpse for the fifth day. The market is dead, but the narrative is quietly shifting. My own interpretation: In this sideways zombie market, the "stillness" of the price and the "movement" of the news flow are divergent. BTC hasn’t moved in 30 days, but real things like AI×BTC and RWA implementation (Itaú Brazil pilot) are stacking up — indicating money isn’t betting on the day but positioning for the narrative of the next six months. The market evidence is right in front of us: US stock-mapped tokens are absorbing liquidity against the trend, XSKHY +8.05%, XSNDK +7.41%. This isn’t BTC spot rising, it’s the "narrative expectation" rising. A takeaway: Don’t scare yourself by staring at the low-volume dead market’s drop rankings; watch "who can still independently strengthen amid low volume" — those are coins with real stories and real buying power. Isolated strength > systemic decline. My BICO short position’s floating profit has expanded to +6.23% (opened at 0.03614), but today’s main story isn’t my account, it’s the structure. For the next wave of narrative, are you betting on AI×BTC, RWA, or continuing to play dead? Comment your bet, priority to those with reasons, I’ll check. Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion. #OKX星球 $BTC $XSKHY #NarrativeCycle #AINarrative Asian tech stocks and Korean semiconductor targets rebounded, lifting sector sentiment, but the marginal stance of macro funds on interest rates and the dollar before the U.S. stock market opens will determine whether $SOXL can effectively surge. Market facts show Samsung and Hynix strengthening intraday, with the A-share tech sector warming up simultaneously, and cross-market premiums positively transmitting to U.S. semiconductor targets. Among the driving factors, the recovery of profit expectations in the Asian semiconductor industry chain ranks first, followed by the easing of pressure on U.S. stock valuations due to the high-level retreat of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, and third is the recovery of risk appetite linked to gold and crypto assets. In the bullish scenario, if U.S. Treasury yields decline after the U.S. market opens and the crypto market maintains risk appetite expansion, cross-market transmission will push $SOXL to break through and approach the 150 resistance level. This scenario requires observing net capital inflows 15 minutes before the open. In the bearish scenario, if funds choose to hedge and flow back to the dollar before the CPI release, cross-market sentiment transmission will immediately break, and the high leverage characteristic will accelerate $SOXL's rapid pullback. When $SOXL breaks below previous low support or the dollar index ignores strong Asian session sentiment and rises sharply, the bullish logic of strong Asian stocks transmitting to U.S. stocks fails. The most important variables to watch in the next 24 hours are the trend of U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S. market opens and the turnover performance when $SOXL reaches the 150 resistance level. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级 #海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升 Tonight the CPI is coming, originally planned to bottom-fish But gold has already risen above 4400 A-shares and Korean stocks have both seen significant rallies And the tech sector including AI, semiconductors, and storage has rebounded across the board In contrast, Bitcoin's rebound is very weak Looking at another set of data The long-short ratio increased a bit overnight, and funding fees rose accordingly Last night, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was just a tiny bit, while Ethereum saw a slight outflow This indicates the short-term market has already bet on the bulls, but the top three Hyperliquid whales are all short positions; a few days ago bulls were dominant If tonight's CPI cannot surprise like the non-farm payrolls did in June Although institutions expect it to be less than or equal to expectations, a reverse surprise cannot be ruled out In July, crude oil surged sharply mid-month due to geopolitical changes, then fell back at the end of the month So Xinghe is not optimistic about it being below expectations; it is very likely to be greater than or equal to expectations At this time, we need to look at the core CPI, which excludes energy and food impacts Scenario 1: Less than expected, rebound Scenario 2: Greater than or equal to expected, indicating inflation decline is slowing and stickiness is strong I personally favor the latter, which would be a devastating blow to the bulls Gold could plunge directly Conversely, if the former happens, it will rebound just like with the non-farm payrolls Those who have positioned early bulls will be comfortable Conservative investors can wait for the data release and then chase a little on the right side, don’t be too aggressive After all, the big jackpot only belongs to the brave who prepare in advance 8.12 Intraday Deep Review｜Three Scenarios, Two Key Levels, One Discipline — Tonight's CPI Trading Framework The biggest fear tonight is not a drop, but that after the data is released, you don't know which side to chase BTC has fallen for two consecutive days, retesting support above 63200, entering a narrow consolidation; 63800 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, multiple attempts to reclaim it have failed, with dense resistance between 64000–64500 above. Daily volatility is less than $1200, a typical "CPI liquidity lock-in." ETH: 1892 is stuck at the upper edge of the 1854–1898 range, three attempts to break through have failed; volume is about 331M and shrinking, low volume grinding at the upper edge, no confirmed breakout. Only after reclaiming 1900 + stabilizing at 1930–1950 can the bulls be considered restored; failure to hold 1900 means a weak rebound. Qualitative assessment: Not a main downtrend wave, but a weak technical repair under high-level pressure, with insufficient volume; direction depends on tonight's CPI. 20:30 US July CPI baseline expectations Expectations: Year-over-year 3.4% (June 3.5%), month-over-month +0.1%; core YoY 2.5%, MoM +0.2%. Interest rate 3.50–3.75%, September rate hike probability about 50/50 (48–51%); hotter data raises rate hike pricing, cooler data eases risk assets. Personal cautious bias: Actual reading may exceed expectations (looking at 3.6%+), logic— Last July's low base pushed YoY higher; Core services slowing down slowly, localized rent rebound; Energy YoY decline narrowing, offset weakening (Goldman Sachs MoM 0.05% estimate is optimistic); Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 but wages stable, demand not collapsed, stickiness remains. Three scenario simulations (by probability high→low) Meeting expectations (YoY ≈ 3.4%) Partially priced in by the market, not necessarily a direct big surge. BTC: Hold 63200, grind 63800, break 64500–65300; if stable, look to 67000. ETH: First reclaim 1900, then confirm 1930–1950. BTC leads the rhythm, altcoins follow but weaker. Below expectations (YoY <3.4%, MoM ≤0.1%) Risk sentiment warms, rate hike narrative fades. BTC volume breakout above 63800→64500, challenge 65300–67000; ETH reclaims 1900 and holds 1930–1950, bull repair confirmed. Above expectations (YoY ≥3.6%, low probability major bearish) Inflation rises → strong USD, US bond yields up, rate hike expectations restart, risk assets pressured. BTC: Break 63200, look for strong support at 62300, extreme spike to 61000; around 63351 about 442 million leveraged long liquidations, break could accelerate. ETH: Lose 1854, look at 1820, then 1780–1800. Market may "kill shorts first, then kill longs," spikes are not scary, catching spikes with full position is most dangerous. Operation framework (for non-prediction response) Before 63800 is firmly held, BTC rebounds are treated as technical pullbacks; before ETH 1898 breaks out with volume, no confirmed range breakout. Long/add: Wait for two confirmations — after CPI retest does not break plan levels (BTC 62300 / ETH 1820) to buy; or breakout retest holds (BTC 64500 / ETH 1930) to follow. Hold off if not at levels. Short: Only if data exceeds expectations + breaks 63200 then rebound fails, follow lightly, no early top guessing. Positioning: Keep cash, avoid chasing spikes back and forth. This market is about who lasts longer, not who reacts faster. The first 15–30 minutes after 20:30 are most prone to false breakouts, wait for 1-hour candle close before acting. The above is a technical analysis simulation and does not constitute investment advice. For contracts, strictly control position size and stop loss. $BTC $ETH $CORE CORE has dropped from 6U to 0.02U, a decline of 99.6%! Many people ask: The project team is still tweeting daily and pushing updates, does that mean a pump is coming soon? Don't be naive! The truth is: The project team is still working, but not to pump the coin price, it's to survive! As long as the project keeps updating the code, they can continue to spin stories to VCs and maintain a minimum valuation; as long as the nodes are still running, the Satoshi Plus narrative won't completely collapse. This is their will to survive, not your cash machine! Look at the capital's calculations: from 6U down to 0.1U, countless bottom-fishing retail investors are piled up. Now if capital spends tens of millions to pump, is it basically paying to liberate retail investors? Moreover, CORE has a huge amount of tokens unlocking through mining every year, so capital pumping is just charity for miners! In the eyes of capital, coins that have dropped 99% with a terrible token distribution are bad assets. The project team continuing to work is their duty, but pumping to break even is definitely not capital's charity! To those holding CORE, are you still waiting for capital to show kindness, or waiting for an impossible miracle? #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid Because this September's rate hike involves the dot plot and SEP economic forecasts, and it concerns the trajectory of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year, it indirectly but importantly affects the situation of the November midterm elections, so the attention and importance are very high And if this CPI data is lower than expected, it would be a fulfillment of Trump's economic policies. Do you think Trump will exert influence? Second, if it is lower than expected again, that would be the second consecutive month of decline, which also aligns with Walsh's proposal: rate cuts + balance sheet reduction Third, however, if it is higher than expected, the economic growth uncertainty increases again, BTC will definitely remain volatile, and influenced by the U.S. stock market, it might even experience a slow decline It's been tough recently #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Tonight's market may find it difficult to have a one-sided decline 📉 As of today, CTAs shorting U.S. Treasuries have reached an epic record The core logic behind the massive shorting of U.S. Treasuries is indeed term premium reversion + inflation stickiness + Fed hawkish stance These medium- to long-term factors Tonight's CPI will not change this underlying logic If the CPI is soft (core month-on-month 0.1% or lower), it will cause these shorts to cover, triggering a chain reaction that will push U.S. Treasury yields down And gold $XAU has recently become the preferred safe haven Its price has risen accordingly Latest CFTC data shows COMEX gold speculative net longs increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398 contracts In other words, the current bets on gold are long So the market is actually neutral on the CPI, meaning a moderate cooling The Fed will also maintain a "wait and see" stance Then $BTC is very likely to continue rebounding above 65,000 U.S. tech stocks will also see a rebound and rise 📈 The recent decline in mainstream cryptocurrencies has already been "priced in" It's time to head north! $QQQ $SPCX $BTC The recent surge in the US stock market has option traders chasing aggressively. The S&P 500 rose 5.8% over the four trading days ending August 4. Options activity has also started to accelerate. The S&P 500's one-month average Call/Put Ratio has climbed to 0.9, marking the highest bullish level in at least four years. Short-term options' Call Skew hit a two-year high last week. There's also an unusual situation: On August 4, the S&P rose nearly 2%, but the VIX not only didn't fall, it increased by almost 1 point. Normally, when stocks rise, volatility tends to decline. Now even volatility is being driven up by heavy Call demand. The index looks comfortable, but on the options side, some are already paying higher prices to secure upside exposure. $BEAT 昨天跌了非常多。今天虽然往上涨了不少，但是距离昨天还是差得远。有些喜欢做右侧交易的朋友，可能就会想，这个时候应不应该去追多呢？我个人认为，这个位置追多风险是比较大的。我自己是不想去追多的。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。可以发现，它的合约持仓量是有很多次上涨的阶段，而对应的合约多空比是在下跌的。这就意味着，现在这个价格是有很多人愿意去做空的。我们再看一下它稍长一点时间的数据。可以发现，它的合约持仓量在昨天中午是有一段暴涨的，对应的合约多空比是有升有降的。这说明在昨天中午的时候，是有很多人愿意去做多的，但是愿意做空的人也不在少数。最后的结果就是，$BEAT 在昨天中午的位置继续下跌，然后又反弹了。我们再看更长一点时间的合约数据。可以发现，它的合约多空比是没有跌到之前的位置的，它的持仓量也没有跌到之前的位置。这也就意味着，现在这个位置仍旧是有很多人在做多的。人话讲就是，现在这个位置还有很多多头被套着。但是，有多头被套着并不意味着价格一定会上涨。 $LAB 也有很多多头被套着，但是价格并没有什么大幅度的上涨。 ————The rebound sentiment in Asian tech stocks is transmitting to the U.S. stock market's after-hours session, with the high-leverage derivative $SOXL once again standing at a critical juncture of market bullish and bearish capital confrontation. Samsung and SK Hynix showed clear buying momentum during the Asian session, with domestic tech sectors simultaneously experiencing sentiment resonance. Cross-market risk appetite is recovering, and the weakening U.S. dollar index is causing funds to flow from safe-haven assets into U.S. semiconductor stocks and high-leverage instruments. If the strong performance of Asian stocks in the early session can translate into buying power at the U.S. stock market's spot open, it will effectively alleviate the capital drain in derivatives. If, after the U.S. market opens, the semiconductor sector's trading volume significantly expands and holds key support levels, $SOXL is expected to follow the momentum upward and test the 150 level; however, a surge in selling pressure within the first half-hour of trading would indicate a failure in sentiment transmission. Conversely, if profit-taking at high levels concentrates after the open, the unique net asset value erosion characteristic of leveraged ETFs will accelerate a short-term pullback, and breaking below the opening support level will signal the end of the sentiment rebound. Global capital still shows pricing divergence on tech weightings, and any disturbance in interest rate expectations could quickly unravel the bullish consensus accumulated in Asian stocks. The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the net capital inflow scale in the semiconductor sector during the half-hour before the U.S. market opens. #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在最近盯的四只：$SPCX $CRCL $MU $SNDK。一只我现在不会买，三只我愿意长线拿着。逐个说。 $SPCX——好公司，但不是好价格。 xAI 已经并入 SpaceX，一个票同时装了火箭、星链和 AI，故事讲得非常漂亮。问题是你要为这个故事付大约 2 万亿美金的市值，而短期盈利能力还很薄，股价又刚从 105 附近反弹了一大截。我不是说它是差公司，我是说它现在太贵。跌到 80 附近我会重新看。 $CRCL——四只里我最看好的。比一年前低了约 58%，但 Q2 已经从去年同期亏损 4.82 亿转为盈利 4800 万。周二涨 6% 到 71，此前在 60 下方筑底——60 那个位置我跟朋友说过是好的买点。稳定币这件事才刚开始，而且美国的监管环境现在是顺风而不是逆风。我看的是它三年后在哪，不是三周后。 $MU——1 万亿美金市值，但只有约 19 倍的历史市盈率，单季度收入创纪录 414 亿，下季度指引约 500 亿。一个比标普还便宜的估值挂着万亿的市值。市值大是因为它真的在赚钱。 $SNDK——过去十二个月 200 亿美金收入做出 115 亿自由现金流，净现金，无负债。只要 Tonight's CPI is not about guessing rise or fall: the real trade is on the "September rate hike odds" BTC is currently around $63,735, and the market has compressed the direction to 20:30 tonight. The market expects July CPI year-on-year at 3.4%, core at 2.5%, core month-on-month at 0.2%; Cleveland Fed Nowcast at 0.21%. I focus on three outcomes: Core ≤ 0.1%: rate hike trades cool down, BTC has a chance to retake 65,000; Core ≈ 0.2%: expectations remain intact, most likely first a two-way deleveraging sweep then return to consolidation; Core ≥ 0.3%: inflation stickiness repriced, US Treasury yields rise, after losing 63,000 watch for accelerated deleveraging. Directional positions bet on trends, grids profit from volatility. Next, I will consider designing a set of grid parameters like Sandisk or Micron. The real reason to stop grids later is not CPI bearishness, but price effectively breaking support zones and mean reversion logic failing. $ETH #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On August 12, the average Gas fee on the Ethereum mainnet dropped to the 8-12 Gwei range, returning to levels seen before the DeFi summer of 2020. On-chain transaction costs have fallen to their lowest in nearly four years. However, developer activity has not cooled down accordingly; the number of newly deployed smart contracts in the Ethereum ecosystem remained between 19,000 and 22,000 over the past week. Gas fees are decreasing, but developers are increasing. Usually, low Gas fees indicate a shrinking speculative demand on-chain, but developers are still deploying contracts, which means builders have not left the market; rather, market participants have temporarily stepped away. On the Solana side, Gas fees have risen by over 200%, with a large volume of Meme coin trading and DePIN activities driving Solana's on-chain revenue to a record high. The Gas fee trends of the two chains are completely opposite—Solana is rising, Ethereum is falling. Low L1 fees for ETH are not necessarily a bad thing; it indicates that Gas fees have been pushed down to very low levels. At this price level, on-chain transaction friction costs have dropped to their lowest in nearly four years. $ETH On August 12, major L2 tokens all declined. OP is currently priced at $0.0144, down 11.4% for the week; ARB is at $0.0403, down 6.8% for the week; ZK is at $0.0113, down 6.5% for the week. In the past 30 days, ARB has dropped 59.5%, OP has dropped 51.7%, and ZK has dropped 42.2%. The overall market cap of the L2 sector has shrunk, with funds withdrawing from L2 tokens and concentrating on ETH itself. However, the actual usage of L2 networks has not significantly declined. Arbitrum's daily transaction volume remains between 800,000 and 1,000,000 transactions, while OP Mainnet maintains between 500,000 and 700,000 transactions. Usage hasn't collapsed, but tokens fell first. L2 fee revenue is also trending downward. As L2 competition intensifies, users are choosing cheaper L2s, and the price war among L2s is compressing the entire sector's profit margins. ETH, as the settlement layer, continues to capture transaction volume, but the valuation of L2 tokens is being re-priced by the market. $ETH Morgan Stanley's latest research report: SpaceX is seriously undervalued, with almost no valuation assigned to its AI business in the current stock price. Morgan Stanley reiterates an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $300, and a bull market scenario directly targets $600. More than half of the $300 target price comes from the AI business. According to Morgan Stanley's valuation breakdown: Space business is about $8 per share. Starlink and network about $128. X platform and Grok about $12. Enterprise AI business as high as $152. In other words, the current stock price almost assigns no valuation to the AI business. Many still think SpaceX is just about building rockets and running Starlink. Morgan Stanley directly overturns this perception—it is not just a space company, but an end-to-end AI giant. How powerful is this closed loop? Compute clusters provide the hardware foundation. Grok handles large models. Cursor secures the enterprise AI entry point. X platform provides massive real-time data. Starlink is responsible for global network connectivity. All fully integrated. Compute, large models, enterprise applications, data, global communications—all held tightly in their own hands. Morgan Stanley specifically calculated: If the value of Starlink and rocket business is stripped out, the implied valuation of the AI business in the current stock price is extremely low. Once the enterprise AI business materializes, the valuation system will be completely re-evaluated. Of course, $600 is an optimistic bull market scenario. Nearly 80% of analysts give a buy rating, with an average target price of about $232. Compute, large models, enterprise applications, data, global communications—all closed loop. A huge expectation gap is already in front of us. Buy the moat, ride the bull — 买护城河，拿长牛. $SPCX #SpaceX #大摩 #AI #美股 #星链 The ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.0289 today, down nearly 18% compared to three months ago. The market is repricing ETH as a "yield-bearing tech asset" rather than a "digital gold alternative." ETH's staking yield has dropped to around 2.6%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.7%. The yield spread between ETH staking and US Treasuries is widening, increasing the opportunity cost of holding ETH. However, the supply side of ETH is undergoing fundamental changes. The staking rate has exceeded 34%, and the validator exit queue is almost zero. The circulating supply of ETH is continuously being locked into staking contracts. Since the merge in September 2022, the net supply of ETH has been shrinking. If the staking rate continues to grow at the current pace, the circulating supply of ETH may tighten further over the next 12 to 18 months. High US Treasury yields suppress ETH prices, while staking lock-ups reduce circulating supply. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions; the trend is undecided, but the structure is changing. Whether the long-term downtrend of the ETH/BTC ratio can be reversed depends on whether US Treasury yields can come down, staking lock-ups can continue to tighten, and whether L2 revenues can eventually flow back to the mainnet. None of these three conditions have been met yet. $ETH Current cost BTC 62,500-63,800 $SNDK 1,202-1,296, SK Hynix 1,004-1,063. Tonight's US CPI may be the most important set of data for risk assets in the coming weeks. Let's start with CPI and PPI. Many market judgments are confused because these inflation indicators are mixed together. What exactly is the difference between CPI and PPI? CPI, short for Consumer Price Index, measures what changes in the prices ordinary consumers actually pay when purchasing goods and services. Rent, food, gasoline, medical care, car insurance, airfare, and clothing are all within the CPI statistics. Simply put, CPI observes how much households bear once inflation moves to the consumption side. PPI, short for Producer Price Index, observes how the prices domestic producers in the U.S. receive when selling goods and services change. It stands from the perspective of both the enterprise and the seller, closer to production, wholesale, and supply chain stages. That's why people often say PPI is upstream inflation and CPI is downstream inflation. But this doesn't mean that when production costs rise, companies can choose to raise prices or squeeze profits; Import prices, taxes, transportation costs, inventories, and demand strength will also change the speed at which PPI is transmitted to CPI. A rise in PPI does not necessarily mean that next month's CPI will increase proportionally. Conversely, if end-user demand is weak, even if production costs rise, companies may not be able to pass all costs on to consumers. Let me add more Today, I'll talk about my spot investments on OKX. The only spot investments I've made on OKX are $OKB and $HYPE. If you're interested, you can follow my spot copy trading. Today, I want to talk about the investment logic for OKB. When we talk about OKB, we like to compare it most often because $BNB's overall strength is much stronger than OKB's. Binance has a larger retail user base and a mature and thriving BNB Chain ecosystem, with real gas consumption continuously generated on-chain and application scenarios flourishing everywhere. As for OKX, it needs to step up in these areas. It seems we have to conclude that configuring OKB is a supplement to BNB. However, although both are exchange tokens, OKB has its own unique differentiated advantages compared to BNB. First, BNB still retains a continuous buyback and burn mechanism, making the total supply flexible; Starting in 2026, OKB will lock in 21 million tokens, shut down additional issuance, canceled official quarterly repurchases, and will rely on X Layer on-chain gas consumption to avoid passive deflation, creating a scarcity narrative. Second, BNB Chain is an independent L1 public chain; OKX's is Layer 2 X Layer, closely following Ethereum's long-term scaling theme and delivering a strong narrative. But this is how I understand it: OKB acts as ETH's subordinate, and now it exists Spot interest in $SOL has declined, but on-chain USD liquidity has not simultaneously receded. The median daily spot trading volume on Binance over the past 30 days is only about 33% of the median over the past year; during the same period, Solana stablecoin supply is about $16.2 billion, up 4.3% in 30 days and 46% in one year. This is an initial divergence between low attention and adoption resilience. However, "no one cares" is not yet established: Square's #solana still has about 156.9 million cumulative views and 239,000 discussions, and MoneyGram payment topics are also trending. SOL has retraced about 70% from its one-year high, which also cannot replace evidence of valuation and value capture. Therefore, this is only a long-term observation, and no dollar-cost averaging signal is initiated. In the next 90 days, protocol fees, settlement value, and valuation percentiles will be reviewed; if stablecoin supply drops more than 10% and fees weaken simultaneously, the adoption resilience hypothesis fails. #SOL #Solana #LongTermObservation Bitcoin's "Three-Line Convergence" principle is simply aligning the MVRV of three cycles using the halving as a time anchor, and the three curves often resonate. Why does this happen? Actually, there's no real logic behind it, so I've always regarded it as a "mystical" indicator, essentially marking the traditional 4-year cycle timeline. However, many friends show great interest in it because, over the past few years, it has been "accurate" far more often than not. It's just that "mystical"... For example, now we see that about two weeks later (August 23), the blue line has a very obvious turning point, while the green line is below. If the same frequency pattern continues, then the red line should also go down, whether sharply or gradually, but definitely in that direction. That would be a perfect "Three-Line Convergence"; whenever it appears, it's the best buying point. But if not, for instance, if the red line keeps oscillating (as shown by the gray dashed line in the chart) until the end of December before forming the "Three-Line Convergence"... Then we can only say this Bitcoin bear market is very special, completely different from before. Crypto mysticism! Believe it or not 😀【Bitcoin Shows Second Early Bull Market Signal, Is the Bottom Here?】 CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator shows that Bitcoin has issued the second "early bull market" signal in this cycle. Historically, after the first signal, prices may still decline, while the second signal more often appears during the bottom formation phase, so the market is starting to discuss whether BTC is approaching the end of the bear market. On the positive side, Bitcoin whale holdings have risen from about 2.87 million coins in December 2025 to 3.06 million coins, indicating that large funds are accumulating chips. If BTC successfully stabilizes, it will also help reduce the downward pressure on altcoins like $ETH and $ADA. However, this does not mean the bottom is confirmed. When the same signal first appeared in May this year, $BTC was around $80,000, but then it still fell to near $60,000; the current price is also still above the realized price of about $52,900, so a further downward test cannot be ruled out. Therefore, this is more like "the bear market may be entering its later stage," rather than a formal return of the bull market. ETH options open interest reached $8.11 billion today, three times that of three months ago. Futures open interest also exceeded $9.15 billion. The two figures combined exceed $17 billion, with a large amount of leveraged funds betting on Ethereum. The combination of high leverage + historically large positions + low liquidity means that once the CPI triggers a move, the spike could be significant. Both bulls and bears have placed heavy bets. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US July CPI data is the biggest variable. The market expects a year-over-year CPI of 3.4%. If the data is below expectations, ETH may attempt to reclaim $1,900; if above expectations, $1,850 may not hold. Before the direction is clear, watch more and trade less, wait for the data to land before making moves. $ETH ETF continues to see inflows, but $BTC can't rise: who exactly is selling? $BTC once fell back to $63,700, remaining stuck between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past five weeks. Notably, volatility has dropped to historically low levels, and global cryptocurrency trading volume has fallen to a three-year low. Both bulls and bears are reluctant to bet early; the market is waiting for a signal that can break the balance. Currently, the biggest support comes from the US Bitcoin spot ETF. Recent inflows have hit a new high since April, with BlackRock IBIT still the main force, indicating institutions have not significantly withdrawn. However, ETF buying has not directly pushed up the coin price. Some traders believe that miners and large holders like Strategy are selling through over-the-counter markets, offsetting some of the new demand. This also explains why funds are flowing in, yet BTC has not broken through $66,000. We also need to pay attention to the US CPI, Federal Reserve policies, and the progress of the CLARITY Act. With inflation cooling and ETFs continuing to flow in, BTC volume could firmly hold above $66,000, potentially releasing the long-compressed volatility quickly; conversely, the area around $62,000 will face a test. It feels like BTC currently does not lack buyers, but the buyers and sellers have temporarily reached a delicate balance. Low volatility won't last forever; the longer the sideways movement, the greater the magnitude of the breakout tends to be. Watch the $66,000 attack line and the $62,000 defense line. #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位 Brother Ma is here to share my views. The Congress is still bickering, but the SEC has already taken action. First, let's clarify where the CLARITY Act got stuck. The bill has passed the House and was approved by the Senate Banking Committee with a 15:9 vote, just one step away from completion. However, the Democrats refused to agree on procedural timing, postponing the vote until September. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has plummeted from over 70% at the start of the year to just 17%. But the other side of the story is more interesting. SEC Chair Atkins didn’t wait and directly pushed a separate set of "cryptocurrency regulatory" rules. According to disclosures, this framework may include three core parts: first, a registration exemption channel for early-stage crypto projects, allowing startups up to four years and a cumulative $5 million. Second, a larger-scale financing exemption, up to $75 million within 12 months. Third, a token safe harbor, where after completing key milestones, assets can shed their securities status. Simply put, the SEC is opening a "legal fundraising without kneeling to register" path for crypto projects. To highlight the key points, Brother Ma thinks this affects us in three ways. First, uncertainty is temporarily held down. Previously, projects could only rely on lawyers guessing whether they counted as securities or if the SEC would come knocking. Now there are clear standards to follow, significantly reducing compliance costs. Second, the short-term impact is limited; this is just a proposal release, not the final rule, which will still undergo at least 60 days of public comment after approval. Third, in the long run, this could be a fundamental shift in regulatory thinking. Previously, the SEC regulated crypto through enforcement—lawsuits, fines, settlements—with boundaries set by judges. Now it’s trying to issue licenses, telling you what the rules are, how to get exemptions, and how to enter safe harbors. From "chasing and hitting" to "leading and guiding," this shift is more important than any bill. Brother Ma’s view is simple: Congress is responsible for bickering, the SEC is responsible for working. The CLARITY Act’s chance has dropped from 82% at the start of the year to 17% now, basically becoming a "walking dead". But once the SEC’s rules are implemented, they might be friendlier to the industry than any bill bickering between the two parties in Congress. After all, SEC Chair Atkins himself understands crypto and started pushing this framework in March. Of course, the SEC’s rules are not the end. They are administrative rules without the legislative power of Congress. The next chairperson could overturn them. But during the legislative gap, providing the industry with an umbrella is better than letting everyone run naked in the storm. Finally, a reminder: tonight is the main event. Remember to come to Brother Ma’s live stream, and let’s plan together. $BTC $ETH TradingBeats detected that two whales almost simultaneously initiated TWAP buy orders for ETH perpetual contracts, planning to jointly purchase 25,000 ETH, valued at approximately $47.15 million. What’s interesting is not the amount itself, but the operational rhythm of these two whales. 0x66f plans to buy 18,000 ETH, with 43.6% completed; 0x1ee7 plans to buy 7,000 ETH, with 32% completed. Both whales have just closed short positions and switched to long — 0x1ee7 closed a 5,000 ETH short position this morning, while 0x66f cleared a $19.69 million SKHX short position. The shift from short to long is more noteworthy than the amount itself. But at the same time, another whale transferred 5,100 ETH, worth about $9.59 million, to FalconX, Galaxy Digital, and Coinbase. Some are buying, some are selling. At the 1,880 level for BTC, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears. $ETH CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ posted a set of data today showing that the unrealized net profit and loss (NUPL) of Bitcoin on a certain platform has fallen back to about -0.35, entering a range that historically corresponds to multiple important price bottoms. NUPL is one of the most valuable on-chain sentiment indicators, measuring whether a particular holding group is overall making a profit or a loss. -0.35 means that this group's unrealized losses are already quite significant. Historically, when this indicator has reached similar levels, it often corresponds to a phase bottom area. However, ETH's bottom structure is different from BTC's. BTC's bottom relies on miners shutting down and surrendering, and long-term holders accumulating, while ETH's bottom depends on staking lock-ups and DeFi capital inflows. Currently, the staked amount has exceeded 41.7 million ETH, accounting for one-third of the total supply. The more coins locked up, the fewer are available to sell. The supply side is tightening, NUPL is bottoming, and these two signals are simultaneously indicating the same thing—Bitcoin may be approaching a phase low area. But approaching a low and having already bottomed are two different things; the direction still requires more confirmation. $BTC $ETH The ugliest part of this market isn't DOGE or SOL, but $ETH. What does it mean when the Knockoff Season Index falls below 20? By industry standards, below 25 is considered the "Bitcoin season"—in the past 90 days, the vast majority of altcoins have underperformed BTC. BTC's market share has hovered around 59%, falling nearly a year from the 65% peak in June 2025. Following the old script, this should be the time for capital spillover and the flourishing of counterfeits. And what happened? The index didn't rise but fell, not even touching the 50-point neutral line. Market share has dropped, but money hasn't gone into the knockoffs—this is the most honest signal of this market. Where did the money go? Part of it is off the court. The capital structure of the ETF era has changed—since the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, hundreds of billions of dollars in net inflows have all gone solely into BTC, and this money will never be transferred to counterfeit assets. Bitcoin's market share hitting above 50% instead of sliding to 40% like in 2018 and 2021 is not because the cycle hasn't ended, but because structural buying has welded it to high levels. Veteran players are still waiting for a script where "BTC stabilizes and funds naturally flow," but the publisher has already changed. Back to ETH. The market has clearly positioned it during this cycle: the ETH/BTC exchange rate is a barometer of counterfeit sentiment, and this chart has almost one-sided decline over the past two years. Ethereum's share of the total crypto market cap is just over 10%, far below the historical average of about 18%. The dignity of being the second most valuable player remains, but the pricing logic has become completely counterfeit—when prices rise, they don't follow the rise much; when they fall,In the past week, $289.4 million worth of Binance Coin was staked, with an additional $14.25 million purchased, totaling 4.8% of Ethereum's total supply. What does 4.8% mean? The total supply of Binance Coin is about 120 million, and Bitmine alone holds nearly 5.8 million. The staked amount officially surpassed 41.7 million today, accounting for one-third of the total supply. The annualized yield has dropped to 2.6%. While yields are decreasing, the number of entrants is increasing, and almost no one is exiting. There are over 2.4 million Binance Coin waiting in the validator entry queue, with almost zero in the exit queue. Bitmine's strategy is simple—buy Binance Coin when it's cheap, stake and lock it to earn coin-denominated yields, and wait for Binance Coin to rise again, ending up with more chips in hand. The last to play this way was MicroStrategy, but they bought Bitcoin and had no staking yields. Binance Coin offers about 2.6% staking yield, so the holding time cost is lower. Bitmine has been increasing its position since June, each time in the 1,800-1,900 range. The price hasn't risen, but the position has, showing a very consistent direction. $ETH The sharp drop in BTC and ETH this time is not rooted in the crypto market itself, but driven by geopolitical forces behind the scenes. As soon as the night session opened, the market sentiment felt off. After the escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, BTC and ETH fell accordingly, while oil prices $CL held steady above $82 — the market is clearly repricing geopolitical risk. The transmission chain is very clear: 🛢️ Hormuz risk → oil price surge 📈 Oil price rise → inflation expectations rise 🏦 Inflation expectations heat up → Fed’s rate cut space narrows ⚠️ Easing expectations discounted → risk assets under broad pressure The US-Iran negotiations have yet to make any substantial breakthrough; even if there is a framework, the execution level is full of question marks. This kind of uncertainty is what the market dislikes most. The real test now is tonight’s CPI. If inflation continues to cool, some pressure can be relieved; but if CPI exceeds expectations and remains high, crypto will face dual pressure from macro and geopolitical factors — that will be the true test. I don’t plan to chase the sharp ups and downs in the night session. I’ll wait for the CPI data to land first — the direction going forward will most likely be dictated by the inflation numbers, not the candlestick patterns. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #CPI #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Hormuz #DailyOrbit The open interest for BTC options today reached $8.11 billion, three times that of three months ago. Futures open interest also exceeded $9.15 billion. Combined, these two figures surpass $17 billion, with a large amount of leveraged capital bet on BTC. The liquidation data provides two clear markers. If BTC breaks above $1,974, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream platforms will reach $596 million. Conversely, if it falls below $1,788, the long liquidation intensity will reach $581 million. The scale of bets on both sides is almost equal, and once the direction becomes clear, the losing side will face collective liquidations worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The gap between $1,974 and $1,788 is nearly $200, with a large amount of leveraged positions buried within this range. The combination of high leverage, historically large open interest, and low liquidity means that once the CPI data triggers a move, the spike could be larger than most expect. BTC is currently around $1,880, right in the middle of this range. Before the direction is clear, watch more and trade less; wait for the data to land before making moves. $ETH Tonight's CPI is most likely to kill not the shorts. It's those bulls who think "good data means BTC will definitely rise." Last week, nonfarm payrolls missed by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. Employment data is already looking bad. But BTC is still stuck below 64,000, and ETH hasn't truly reclaimed 1,900. Because what the market is really struggling with now isn't whether employment is good or bad. It's whether the Fed should trust employment data or inflation. Cooling employment means continuing rate hikes will hurt the economy; Oil prices are rebounding, and inflation remains above 2%, meaning not hiking risks runaway prices. So whether to hike in September is again roughly a 50-50 call in the market. Tonight, the overall CPI year-over-year expectation is 3.4%, and core year-over-year expectation is 2.5%. The numbers look a bit lower than last month. But what the market will really watch is whether core inflation month-over-month is picking up again. If the overall data looks good and core is moderate, the market will believe again: weakening employment and falling inflation can coexist. Then BTC reclaiming 64,000 and challenging today's 64,500 makes sense. ETH also has a chance to truly reclaim 1,900. But if the headline data looks good and core month-over-month is still hot, the most awkward situation arises. The market will realize: employment is already deteriorating, but inflation hasn't fallen yet. This is neither a rate cut trade nor a simple rate hike trade. It's a repricing of "the economy is weakening, but rates can't come down." In this environment, BTC support near 63,200 will be tested again; ETH's 1,850 area from yesterday might not hold either. So tonight, I'm not in a rush to see if CPI is high or low. I want to see if the market treats the data as a real positive after it comes out. If it's positive but can't hold above 64,000, it means the market is weaker than the data. If the data is average but it can break 64,500, it means the shorts haven't been able to push it down these days. Don't use high leverage to guess the answer before the release. Data is a multiple-choice question; market reaction is the real answer. $BTC $ETH #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级 Agree with this netizen's view 👍👍 The core of many previously perfectly triggered $BTC bear bottom indicators: the coin price falls enough and hard enough, hard enough that long-term holders (LTH) massively surrender and cut losses to complete the final drop However, if in a certain bear market, the coin price never breaks below the LTH cost line, and no large-scale LTH surrender event occurs, then it is also possible for the bear market to end without triggering the related indicators $ETH Q: Do you think this "certain bear market" will be this current bear market? 🤭Firedancer accounts for 20% share and Solana's technical recruitment Once mocked as a blockchain prone to crashes and restarts at any moment, Solana has recently finally stood tall. Official data shows that Firedancer, an independent validator client developed by Jump Crypto, has successfully surpassed a 20% share of nodes on the mainnet. This indicates that Solana has achieved a perfect 100% uptime for thirty consecutive months, and the former label of a crash-prone public chain has become history. Next week, on August 17th, the mainnet will also see the official upgrade of the Agave v4.2 client, with Solana proving its technical strength through the most intensive infrastructure upgrades. The multi-client architecture was indeed Ethereum's strongest weapon to mock Solana. Previously, Solana had only one official client; if a bug appeared in the code, all network nodes would go down together. Now, with Firedancer diverting traffic, even if the old client encounters unexpected issues during next week's v4.2 upgrade, the 20% of nodes running Firedancer can still maintain mainnet operation, completely breaking the crash curse. However, behind this technical celebration, a worrying concern has emerged within the community. Jump Crypto, the developer of this god-level client, is not some geeky open-source organization but a top-tier high-frequency trading market maker from Wall Street. This means that Solana's core underlying technical direction is being led by traditional financial market-making giants. This requires attention: the subtle binding between high-frequency trading algorithms and on-chain consensus. Firedancer achieves million-level transactions per second because Jump has directly transplanted their hardware acceleration and microsecond-level network throughput techniques from the securities market. This extremely cold and precise technology is indeed impressive but also raises the validator threshold, concentrating it increasingly in professional large server data centers. Ultimately, this is a process of gradually replacing decentralized physical nodes with professional market makers' local area networks. When Jump controls over 20% of block-producing nodes and owns the fastest client, it means they have a dimensionality-reducing advantage in capturing on-chain MEV and arbitrage opportunities. Ordinary retail investors and small-to-medium validators no longer even qualify to be counterparties against this Wall Street-level speed machine. Personally, I think this upgrade marks Solana's transition from a geek's wild growth to being technically recruited by traditional Wall Street capital. It's hard to call this a regression; after all, without Firedancer's stable performance, Solana couldn't support this massive multi-billion speculative casino. But it is also another mockery of decentralization fundamentalism. To pursue extreme performance and crash-free experience, the public chain ultimately chooses to hand over underlying control to Wall Street's market hegemony. Between efficiency and decentralization, Solana has made the most pragmatic choice with concrete actions. Thirty consecutive months of silky smooth uptime were bought with underlying delegated control. As for the future, whether this high-frequency trading money-printing machine that runs faster than anyone belongs to the community or Wall Street, you probably already have the answer in your heart. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Tonight, the CPI plan is to position a short on SanDisk around 1407. I will lay out my entire opening logic, defense, targets, and risks. First, let's talk about the current market situation. SanDisk's recent earnings report was very strong, with revenue and profits far exceeding expectations, and they announced a 14 billion buyback authorization. However, the stock plunged immediately after the earnings release, which is a very typical "good news already priced in" scenario. Now it has rebounded and pulled back to 1377, which is a recovery rally after a big drop, but it hasn't broken through the dense chip accumulation area before the earnings report. Many retail investors see explosive earnings and a large buyback and think it will continue to hit new highs. Here lies a major misconception: for cyclical stocks, the best profit periods are often the phase top zones. Here is my core personal logic for being bearish: 1. Valuation mismatch: the market is pricing cyclical commodities like AI growth stocks. SanDisk makes NAND flash memory, which is essentially a commodity with a strong industry cycle, not a high-barrier GPU business like Nvidia. The market is currently giving it a growth stock valuation due to the AI data center storage demand boom. The short-term gross margin has surged to over 84%, already at a historical extreme high. The earnings guidance shows gross margin has peaked and stabilized, with no room for further expansion. Samsung and SK Hynix will continue to release new capacity, and once supply increases, flash memory prices will soften, and profits will be quickly pressured down. The current high profitability is unsustainable. 2. Biggest risk in the earnings report: next quarter guidance below expectations. The quarterly results were explosive, but the next quarter's revenue guidance is below Wall Street consensus, which is the root cause of the post-market plunge. The market is not trading on how much was earned in the past but whether future earnings can continue to beat expectations. Even with a 14 billion buyback, buybacks can only provide a floor; they cannot change the industry cycle or the big trend of customer capital expenditure. Buyback plans can be paused anytime and should not be blindly hyped. 3. Long-term contracts have uncertainties, not set in stone. The company repeatedly emphasizes hundreds of billions in long-term framework orders, which seems like a strong moat. But many are floating price agreements, and with future storage chip price declines, major customers have room to renegotiate prices. Paper orders do not equal real, locked-in profits and cannot be fully relied on as bullish evidence. 4. External macro pressure. Tonight's CPI data is a major event. If inflation is higher than expected and hawkish, US Treasury yields will rise, and tech growth and AI storage sectors will collectively face pressure. SanDisk is highly volatile; it surges sharply when rising but also falls sharply when dropping. It is also highly correlated with the US AI tech sector, so if tech stocks collectively pull back, SanDisk will struggle to hold up independently. This is my short-selling practical plan (personal plan): Opening reference position: short near 1407 Stop-loss defense: 1440. If it breaks through this level effectively, it means the bearish logic has failed, and I will admit the mistake and exit without holding on stubbornly. First target: 1370, the chip accumulation platform after the earnings plunge. At this point, I can reduce some positions and take partial profits. Second target: 1330 range, the post-market plunge low area, which is the core test zone this round. Extreme scenario: If CPI is hawkish and tech stocks crash collectively, it could further test near 1150.US CPI Release Imminent: What the Crypto Market Is Really Trading Is Rate Cut Expectations The crypto market is currently entering a critical window. The US July CPI, released on August 12, is one of the most important macro data points this week. The recent pullback in BTC and ETH already reflects the market reducing risk exposure ahead of the data release. The significance of this CPI is not just to judge whether US inflation continues to decline, but more importantly to reprice the Fed's policy path for September. If the core CPI is lower than expected, the market may reinforce rate cut expectations, putting downward pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields. Risk appetite could rebound, potentially supporting high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL. But if inflation data exceeds expectations, the opposite may happen. The market will trade "higher for longer" again, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, and risk assets may continue to face short-term pressure. There is also a variable worth noting: the market has already priced in the CPI. Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped to about $63,900, ETH fell to about $1,872, and the entire crypto market's 24-hour market cap showed a significant contraction. Therefore, the initial price moves after the data release may not represent the true trend. If CPI meets expectations, the market might actually "buy the rumor, sell the fact"; if the data significantly deviates from expectations, it is more likely to trigger a repricing of interest rates and capital flows. Moving forward, I will focus on three directions: CPI data → Fed rate cut expectations → USD/US Treasury yields. If this chain simultaneously shifts toward easing, it could become an important catalyst for the next phase of the crypto market. Conversely, if inflation douses rate cut expectations again, even if the long-term logic for crypto remains unchanged, short-term capital pressure may persist. What really needs to be observed tonight is not whether BTC rises or falls immediately, but whether macro capital begins to reprice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK In Chinese history, when a new emperor ascended the throne, it was common to grant a general amnesty across the land and reduce taxes and levies, demonstrating benevolence. General amnesty from heaven — reducing the pressure on social governance Tax reduction/exemption — easing economic pressure It seems that studying history was not in vain; no wonder it feels so familiar! #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

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