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#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ 💡💡💡💯💯💯 According to official U.S. data, the U.S. July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, meeting expectations and lower than June's 3.5%; the core CPI year-over-year was 2.5%, also meeting expectations and lower than the previous 2.6%. Both inflation measures cooled simultaneously, continuing the decline after 4.2% in May. For the market, the data did not create a new inflation upside surprise.
However, the inflation level remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and has been above the target for nine consecutive months. In other words, the main theme of this data is a slowdown in price momentum, not that inflation pressure has disappeared; the year-over-year reading's decline improves the short-term inflation narrative but still falls short of the policy target.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is currently 3.75%, with policy rates held at 3.75% in April, June, and July. Given inflation meets expectations and continues to cool, the necessity for further rate hikes by the Fed decreases; however, since CPI remains above the 2% target, policymakers may still remain cautious about prematurely shifting to rate cuts. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？New Large Position Opened On-Chain: Million-Dollar Capital Rushes Into the Niche MU, Day-Trading Short-Term Player Opens Two Positions in a Row
xyz: MU, a niche coin that rarely even sees 5000U orders, just swallowed a $1 million buy order in one go.
Address 0xaeaa...2416 has long been listed on Hyperdash's 7-day and 30-day PnL rankings, with account equity of 2.03 million, 57 historical trades netting 1.12 million in profits, and a win rate of 46.9%, typical of a day-trading short-term bullish player.
This time, they used 89 market orders at an average price of $923.77 to quickly accumulate 1084 MU tokens. Currently, there is no same-direction position, indicating a cold start. More notably, just 25 minutes ago, the same address opened a $1 million SPCX long position with 155 orders.
Two consecutive large-scale long positions in niche coins—are they bullish on a particular sector or purely short-term rotation? If MU or SPCX start showing floating profits and the position size increases, it suggests a longer betting cycle; if both reduce positions synchronously within 15 minutes, it remains the familiar fast in-and-out rhythm. The above is based on public contract data records and is not trading advice.
If you like my sharing, please follow.The US July CPI is out, and the result is neither too hot nor too cold, but at least it didn't add pressure.
CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year is 2.5%, both in line with expectations and both lower than last month. Including May's 4.2%, inflation has fallen for two consecutive months.
This data indicates that price pressures are cooling down, and the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates in September is also decreasing.
But don't rush to interpret this as a sign of rate cuts.
Currently, the interest rate is still between 3.50%—3.75%, and inflation hasn't fully returned to a comfortable level. After the data release, the market prices in about a 55% chance of maintaining rates in September, with little change.
Simply put: no inflation shock, moderately positive for risk assets; but not enough to start a rate cut trade.
Next, we still need to watch employment, the next CPI, and whether oil prices will push inflation back up.
$ETH $BTC $SOL 3x long survived the deep V, 120x short fully profited from the crash! These two trades made the market clear
The contract market at dawn never lacks legends, but putting these two trades together still makes people catch their breath.
TraderS the rogue got more and more annoyed watching coin, so he simply closed the position with one cut and turned to go long on $AAOI — the logic is simple: rather than lingering in old coins, embrace popular sectors and advanced productivity.
3x leverage, entry price 131.15, target 140 take profit.
However, the market never follows the script.
After opening the position, the price first climbed slightly, floating profit gave some relief, then a sharp plunge created a deep V, dragging the position from profit to the edge of loss in minutes.
Others would have cut losses early, but he stayed firm — just when everyone thought this trade was doomed, the price miraculously pulled up from the bottom, rebounding to 135.38, floating profit back to +$967, +9%.
A thrilling roller coaster ride that ended in profit.
On the other side, play Sister Bing’s operation was a completely different style.
She calls herself "a fence-sitter in the market," always following the footsteps of the whales.
No news, no indicators, pure naked K trend trading, ears deaf to outside noise, eyes only on the candlesticks.
At around 65134 on $BTC, she directly opened a 120x short — this leverage means a reverse move of less than 1% could liquidate the position.
But she bet right.
After opening the position, the candlestick turned down and poured down all the way, when the price dropped to 63988, the account floating profit was $4581, a return of +215%.
Perfect top exit, 120x leverage maximized the profit from the downtrend.
One long altcoin survived the deep V reversal, one 100x short fully captured the entire crash.
Opposite styles, yet both stood on the right side of the market.
Simply put, trading never has a standard answer.
Some rely on sector faith to ride through volatility, some rely on naked K discipline to harvest trends.
But the common point is — in this ever-changing market, those who survive and make money are always the ones with their own system and dare to place heavy bets at critical moments.
So here’s the question: if it were you, would you choose 3x steady long on sector coins, or 120x naked K short to ride the trend? Tonight, the US July CPI was released, generally favoring risk assets, but the positive impact was limited. Data: July CPI month-on-month +0.1%, year-on-year 3.4%; Core CPI rose +0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Compared to June's 3.5% and 2.6% declines, these figures fully met market expectations. Inflation continues to cool but is not significantly below expectations, which is a mild positive and not an unexpectedly strong stimulus. Market feedback: U.S. stocks opened with strong performance in the first half hour, with SPY up 0.30%, QQQ up 0.85%, and tech stocks reacting even more strongly. BTC's performance was mixed, with the current price around $63,820, down 0.57% intraday, ranging between $63,204 and $64,298. After the data was released, it did not follow the U.S. stock market trend. The US dollar weakened slightly, with the dollar index hitting a low of 99.69. The market's probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 40%. Monetary policy risks have eased somewhat, but aggressive easing trading has not begun. Why is the US stock market rising, but BTC remains unmoved? First, the CPI only met expectations. It only ruled out the risk of worsening inflation and did not signal a rapid Fed pivot. Supporting local bullish positions is insufficient to drive a collective surge in risk assets. Second, BTC has prematurely drawn up part of its data expectations. The news materialized, the results met expectations, and no new incremental funds entered the market to drive the market. Good news is being realized but the coin price does not rise, which is a market signal worth paying attention to. Third, the current constraints in the crypto market are not limited to the macro level. All conditions for a weaker dollar and lower rate hike expectations have been met, but BTC has notNote a macro thermometer easily overlooked by the crypto circle: the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has fallen for three consecutive days, dropping another 3.5% from the day before to 2939 points, with Capesize shipping rates leading the decline by nearly 6%. The BDI is a high-frequency proxy for real trade demand—less bulk cargo being shipped often means global industrial demand is weakening at the margin. When you combine this with gold repeatedly hitting new highs and copper prices also rising, it points to a macro backdrop of "stagflation": weak demand but persistent inflation. For risk assets like $BTC, this environment is the hardest to navigate because it simultaneously suppresses valuation expansion and risk appetite. Data won't play along with you.The squeeze on hardware production capacity is being transmitted down the supply chain, and the re-pricing of funds in the U.S. semiconductor sector is pulling overall market risk appetite.
$DRAM spot prices surged from $49 to $55 within a few days, an increase of over 12%, directly boosting the profit expectations of related U.S. storage chip giants.
The three major memory manufacturers are prioritizing capacity for high-bandwidth memory, causing a sharp reduction in the supply of general-purpose chips, and downstream panic buying has rapidly amplified the short-term gap.
The hardware siphoning effect caused by AI capital expenditure is closely linking the strong cash flow preference of tech stocks with the risk appetite for crypto assets under a macro high-interest-rate environment.
If U.S. tech giants continue to expand AI capital expenditure and the U.S. dollar index is suppressed, the spillover effect of the memory cycle will drive crypto risk assets to strengthen in sync until the terminal cost transmission is blocked, triggering profit-taking.
If macro interest rates remain high, causing overall U.S. stock valuations to be under pressure, the high spot prices may turn into a reason for downstream order withdrawals; this downward path will be invalidated if the supply gap further widens.
Currently, the market divergence lies in how long the premium can last. Once the U.S. storage sector shows high-volume stagnation at elevated levels, the current bullish trading logic will be directly falsified.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the capital flow in U.S. tech stocks will generate substantial liquidity spillover to crypto and other broad risk assets.
#贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？🇺🇸 The inflation drama just finished its first half! The fresh July CPI is out, with an overall year-on-year increase of 3.4%, hitting a 3-month low, and a month-on-month rise of only 0.1%. Energy prices plunged 1.5%, making a big contribution 🏆. But the core CPI year-on-year at 2.5% is the lowest since 2021, and the month-on-month increase of 0.2% is even stronger than the overall figure. Housing costs account for two-thirds of the rise, showing quite a sticky trend 😓.
The market was initially quite calm, the dollar jumped slightly, gold and US stock futures trembled a bit, and the 10-year US Treasury yield stayed steady around 4.66%. Traders firmly hold the 45% probability of a rate hike in September — after all, wage growth is only 3.2%, not keeping up with prices, so people's wallets are still shrinking 💸.
$SHIB $BTC $ETH
Don't celebrate too early, oil prices already quietly rebounded at the end of July, and inflation might bounce back in August. Also, a single month's data is not enough for the Fed to decide; whether to raise rates in September depends on next month's employment and inflation outlook 👀.
The heavy sequel premieres tomorrow night (Thursday) at 20:30 — July PPI data! Will upstream prices cool down or ignite again? Hold your breath and wait for the explosion 🔥#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ $BTC fully meets expectations, the tone of rate cuts is stable
Tonight's core annual inflation is 2.5%, annual inflation is 3.4%, all core data exactly matches expectations. This kind of "precise hit" indicates that the market has long since priced in the expectation of cooling inflation. For the crypto space, this means there is no longer any data obstacle to the Fed's rate cut in September, and the overall environment does not support a deep drop in Bitcoin. However, after the data was released, the market did not rally, indicating that the main players currently have no intention to strike while the iron is hot A structural signal worth noting in the US stock market tonight: the optical communication sector collectively strengthened, with Lumentum, Coherent, Myrle, and Corning all rising 5%~6%. The significance of this for the crypto space is not in the individual stocks, but in the fact that it confirms AI computing power capital expenditure is still being invested in real money downstream — optical modules are the bottleneck in data center interconnection, and their rise indicates order visibility remains. Comparing this with crypto: stocks with the "AI" label related to computing power narratives are realizing cash flow, while most on-chain AI tokens are still stuck in the storytelling phase. Looking at positions, capital clearly favors the former. For $BTC to truly connect with the AI main theme, what’s missing is exactly this kind of thing that can be reflected in financial reports. We Almost Didn't Launch a Token: An Update
Six months ago I said we'd launch a token when the product, the infrastructure, and the moment were right.
None of them are right yet. So we're not launching one in the foreseeable future.
Not a strategic masterstroke or some elaborate scheme so I could be rich and retire (I wish).
I've watched enough teams ship a token before their product was ready. The token becomes the product. Every decision gets filtered through price action. The team stops building and starts managing the chart.
The token and the project both die.
I don't want Perena to die.
My original thesis still holds: tokens, stripped of the bullshit, are one of the most powerful growth tools ever created. It's fuel during a growth cycle, but it does (mostly) nothing during a recession.
USD* and $SOL * are live. Smart Borrow is live. Vaults V2 will be live.
The yield is real cash, the borrowing is real savings, the infrastructure is a fortress.
No TGE date in our roadmap.
If and when it happens, you'll know. Until then, the answer is: we're building.
A few months ago I said "if the lack of a ticker symbol makes you leave, that's a failure of our product."
Perena needs products that are valuable to paying customers. That's what we're building towards.The CPI data has been released, and both the overall and core figures met expectations—no surprises, no shocks.
Inflation is indeed cooling down, but it has remained above the 2% target for the ninth consecutive month.
After the data release, Bitcoin and Ethereum initially moved down a step. The positive news was instead taken as a reason to sell.
But right after the U.S. stock market opened, the scene changed completely.
The storage sector directly "crouched and jumped"—it was down pre-market but surged collectively after the open. SanDisk rose 6.5%, SK Hynix rose 6.8%, Micron rose 6.8%, and SOXL, the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF, rose 8.8%. This movement can be described as a pole vault play.
With the same CPI data, BTC was falling while storage stocks were soaring. After the CPI release, capital chose U.S. tech stocks over crypto assets.
There were no surprises in the CPI, and the feared inflation rebound did not occur, removing uncertainty. Institutions dared to move but didn’t want to act recklessly, so they chose the clearest earnings delivery logic in AI infrastructure and storage sectors. The strength in SanDisk and SK Hynix is not just a bet on the AI concept but something validated during earnings season.
Gold remains steady nearby; the CPI meeting expectations didn’t crash the market, and safe-haven funds haven’t left.
BTC’s recent pullback looks more like short-term sentiment taking profits rather than a trend reversal. The CPI data did not introduce new negative factors; the shoe has truly dropped.
$SNDK $XAU $BTC #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ August 12 Crypto Evening Report
Finally, the CPI data is out tonight.
US July CPI month-over-month +0.1%, year-over-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI month-over-month +0.2%, year-over-year also dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%, basically around market expectations. (Reuters)
The data did not create new troubles for the market.
The US dollar weakened afterward, and market bets on a September rate hike continued to ease. $BTC was still around 63700 before the data, now it has returned to around 65000, and $ETH is also back to about 1920.
I will treat this rebound as a risk release after the CPI data, because there is still one issue unresolved.
Brent crude oil has reached around $89 today, rising for the fifth consecutive trading day. The Middle East situation persists, and this recent oil price increase has not yet truly been reflected in the July CPI data. Reuters mentioned that if energy prices remain high, August inflation may be affected again. (Reuters)
So BTC touching 65000 again tonight is indeed much more comfortable than during the day, but it’s not yet time to look for a one-way move.
I will first watch if 65000 can truly hold.
If it stabilizes above 65000 on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, then I will look at 65300–65600.
If after the data-driven rise it falls back below 64500, then the rebound strength from this CPI will be rather average, and we will need to look again near 64000.
Also, tomorrow night at 20:30 there is the US July PPI. After CPI, the market will soon focus on whether producer prices are rising again. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Tonight’s data has passed a checkpoint.
Whether BTC can turn 65000 back into support is more worth watching than the CPI itself.
Personal market summary, not investment advice. $SNDK in the US stock market opened high and then fell, playing a wave of pullbacks. Then a splendid turnaround.
So what if there's a bearish candlestick? Recently, SanDisk has never been weak after the US market opens.
To achieve cooperation with SK Hynix and unify technical standards, focusing on AI inference scenarios.
Holding abundant cash flow, executing a buyback plan to support valuation with buybacks. Continuously cutting low-margin consumer business resources, fully focusing on the data center AI storage track. #Nvidia will limit $500 billion AI financing exposure $SKHY
Direction: If the US stock market digests the previous level and breaks through 1400, it will continue to rise. It is recommended to short again near 1380-1390. 1400 is a very pressured position for a short time; if the US market digests and does not break through, you can short directly.The most ridiculous thing about tonight is, no surprises.
At 20:30, the US July CPI data was released, almost exactly as economists predicted. Overall CPI year-on-year +3.4%, expected +3.4%; core CPI year-on-year +2.5%, expected +2.5%. The month-on-month 0.1% and 0.2% also matched. The entire data looks as clean as if copied from a template.
The only "change" to boast about is core CPI year-on-year falling from 2.6% to 2.5%, and overall CPI dropping from 3.5% to 3.4%. But the market had already priced these in days ago. During the day, gold surged to 4415, silver rose 3%, and pre-market tech stocks in the US moved—all betting on the "moderate script."
Once the data came out, traders immediately slightly lowered the bets on a Fed rate hike in September. On the CME chart, the probability of no hike in September moved up from just over 50%. Nasdaq futures rose nearly 1% after hours, S&P 500 futures up 0.4%, spot gold first dropped then pulled back above 4430. The overall feeling is that the market unanimously agrees "this data is solid," and also unanimously agrees "there’s no surprise in this data."
So tonight, those who priced in extreme scenarios got cut. Among JPMorgan’s five scenarios, the 5% probability of core CPI above 0.3% and the 5% probability below 0.15% both missed tonight. The remaining 90% most likely "moderate and no shock" scenario became the only script tonight. The $2.5 million BTC longs betting on $70,000 on Deribit will make a little profit but won’t get rich; the $46.8 million BTC shorts on Hyperliquid will lose a bit but won’t blow up.
But "moderate" does not mean "safe." The real awkwardness tonight is the market breathed a sigh of relief, and then what? Before the September FOMC meeting, there’s still an August CPI, an August nonfarm payroll, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. If any of these three have issues, the "moderate" relief saved tonight will be fully given back.
Not to mention the Hormuz Strait line outside JPMorgan’s scenarios. Iran clearly said today "the Strait won’t open unless US conditions are met," and the US military fired two Hellfire missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo ship yesterday. Brent crude is still hovering above $84. If the energy component rises again next month, tonight’s "moderate" will be discounted.
At 20:30 tonight, there was a spike, the 1-minute candlestick swept back and forth three or four times, then the market returned to almost the same position as at 20:29. Watched for an hour in vain, no profit or loss, just a bit more fatigue.
For heavy positions, don’t change take-profit or stop-loss levels temporarily in the remaining weeks of August, because every data point before September could be "the last straw." For light or no positions, keep a close eye on the upcoming August nonfarm payroll and August CPI. Tonight’s "moderate" is borrowed, not earned.One important distinction: cooling inflation doesn't automatically mean the Fed is ready to cut or that a September hike is locked in. The next signals—especially PPI, retail sales, employment data, and financial conditions—still matter for the policy path.
For BTC, the reaction you describe is actually informative:
3.4% CPI / 2.5% core: no major inflation surprise.
BTC around $63.6K: little immediate reaction → much of the result was already priced in.
No squeeze, no panic: neither bulls nor bears received a strong new catalyst.
Next focus: PPI and retail sales could provide the next macro impulse.
Trading implication: until BTC escapes the current range with convincing momentum, there's little reason to force a directional prediction.
So rather than “CPI was bullish/bearish,” I'd summarize tonight as:
> CPI removed uncertainty, but it didn't create conviction. Now the market needs a new catalyst.
And that's exactly why patience may be more valuable than trying to predict the next candle.$XRP has fallen below $1 for the first time in over two years
On August 11, it hit a low of 0.99, and although it bounced back to 1.02, the psychological $1 threshold was broken
Four factors combined to hammer it
The CLARITY Act was delayed again, with voting pushed to September, disappointing regulatory expectations. Last week, net inflows to XRP ETFs were only $1.01 million, a 93% plunge from the previous week
Bitcoin ETFs handled $850 million in a week, while XRP only $1 million, an absurdly large gap. Grayscale sold $180 million worth of XRP in the first half of the year, and in the past 24 hours, 98% of XRP long positions were liquidated. On-chain transaction volume collapsed, and XRP trading volume on Binance shrank from $1 billion directly down to $68 million
The technicals are even worse. EMA50 is pressing down hard at 1.04, EMA200 at 1.07, and if the head and shoulders neckline at 1.02 breaks, the target points to 0.92
It's not just XRP; the entire altcoin market is being drained. BTC dominance remains steady above 58%, and total altcoin market cap has been almost flat since July
My judgment: leaning bearish
$1 has turned from support into resistance, ETF funds have dried up, and regulatory uncertainty looms—three major bearish factors weighing down. If it can't hold above 1.05, any rebound is a selling opportunity. Entering now is like catching a falling knife July US CPI landed, both overall and core stuck at expectations, no acceleration — the entire information of this report is actually contained in the four words "no surprises." The most direct impact on derivatives is implied volatility: before the data release, implied volatility of crypto options and yen options was rising; once the event passes and uncertainty is released, short-term IV will most likely fall, which is the so-called vol crush. So you will see $BTC currently just above sixty-three thousand, slightly down intraday, but price volatility is actually narrowing. Data won't play games with you — at times like this, watching how volatility changes tells you more about what capital is thinking than watching price fluctuations.Gold surges past $4400: BTC may not immediately follow
MarketWatch data shows that on August 11, gold futures once reached $4448.80/oz, with an August cumulative increase of over 8%.
My view is: in the short term, gold may continue to lead, and BTC may not immediately rally. This is because the trading logic of the two is different.
Gold's rise mainly comes from safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations: weaker non-farm payrolls, rising expectations of a Fed policy shift, and increased geopolitical risks are all driving funds into gold.
BTC, on the other hand, requires not only rate cuts but also a weaker dollar, ETF fund inflows, and a renewed increase in market risk appetite.
Therefore, gold hitting new highs does not directly imply a BTC catch-up rally. If the market continues to worry about uncertainty, gold can rise while BTC may remain volatile.
Additionally, large on-chain transfers should not be simply interpreted as capital inflows. For example, XAUT wallet transfers need to be analyzed in conjunction with the source, destination, and balance changes of funds; seeing "large transfers" alone does not mean new buying.
If I had to choose between gold and BTC, in the short term I lean towards gold. This is not bearish on BTC, but rather because gold's drivers are clearer currently, while BTC still needs to wait for capital confirmation.
In summary: Gold trades on "uncertainty," BTC trades on "liquidity."
For now, defend first; wait for risk appetite to return, then look for BTC's offensive opportunities.
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
$BTC $XAU CPI, Hormuz and ETF Flows: Crypto Faces a New Macro Test
The latest U.S. CPI report delivered a relatively balanced signal for risk assets. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while Core CPI increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually — broadly in line with expectations.
That reduces immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve and keeps the door open to a more accommodative policy path, particularly as signs of weakness emerge in the U.S. labor market.
But crypto faces another macro risk that CPI cannot solve: the Strait of Hormuz.
Tensions surrounding the strategic waterway remain unresolved, keeping oil markets highly sensitive to every headline. If disruptions persist, higher energy prices could push inflation expectations higher and force the Fed to remain cautious. For liquidity-sensitive assets such as crypto, that could become a significant headwind.
The most interesting signal is coming from ETF flows.
Institutional demand has recently returned, with U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracting roughly $1.1 billion in combined net inflows over the previous week. However, recent sessions have shown increasing divergence, with Bitcoin ETF flows turning weaker while Ethereum flows have also become less consistent.
This suggests institutions are still active, but their conviction is becoming more selective.
For $BTC and $ETH, the current setup is therefore more complicated than “CPI cools, crypto rises.”
If inflation continues to ease and Hormuz tensions fade, improving liquidity expectations could support the next crypto move higher. But if oil remains elevated and geopolitical pressure intensifies, the Fed could have less room to ease despite softer inflation.
The market is now caught between three forces: improving inflation, geopolitical risk and increasingly selective institutional capital.
That battle could determine the next major move for $BTC, $ETH and the broader crypto market.
#CPIInLineFedWatch
#HormuzPressureRises
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
$BTC
$ETH federal charters give $BTC and $ETH only indirect upside if supervised custodians win assets, token holders get no custody fees. holders of $USDC and RLUSD keep dollar exposure, issuers and distributors collect reserve economics. more charters can cut custody and stablecoin fees.cpi
CPI year-on-year 3.4%, previous 3.5%; core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, previous 2.6%.
Month-on-month are +0.1% and +0.2%, basically as expected.
My judgment is simple:
Slightly positive for BTC, but not enough to directly trigger a new round of surge.
📉 The biggest risk hasn't exploded
$BTC's biggest fear is CPI accelerating again, forcing the Fed to continue tightening.
But this time core inflation continues to cool down, combined with previous weakening employment, at least indicating the pressure to raise rates in September has decreased.
For liquidity assets like BTC, this is good news.
₿ Why hasn't BTC broken through yet?
BTC is still around 63,800 USD, fluctuating roughly between 63,200 and 64,300 USD today.
The reason is simple:
CPI is just "not bad news," not super good news.
3.4% inflation is still not low, and oil prices and Middle East situation may cause August CPI to rebound again.
So
Macro pressure is easing, but BTC still needs funds to truly break through 65,000.
💰 My strategy
63,000–63,800: buy 30% first
61,500–62,500: buy another 40%
Around 60,000: remaining 30%
Upside still looks at 65,000–65,500.
Only when volume truly stands firm above 65,500 will I consider this round of consolidation over.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ August 12｜BTC Data Evening Report
ETF Funds
On August 11, the net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF was about $7.8 million, turning positive again after a net outflow of $144.6 million on August 10.
The fund direction has somewhat recovered, but the scale of $7.8 million is very small and cannot yet be seen as a clear acceleration of institutional funds.
On-chain Chips (by address category)
Continuous snapshots from August 11 to 12:
Under 10 BTC: net decrease of about 355 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4377 million BTC
10–100 BTC: net decrease of about 812 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.222 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: net increase of about 1,360 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.4067 million BTC
Within above 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: net increase of 5,227 BTC, latest about 5.1731 million BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net decrease of 4,193 BTC, latest about 4.2505 million BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: net increase of 326 BTC, latest about 2.2721 million BTC
Above 100,000 BTC: net change 0 BTC, latest about 711,000 BTC
The total amount of large addresses increased, mainly from the 100–1,000 BTC range, while the 1,000–10,000 BTC range clearly declined, indicating strong internal migration characteristics.
Exchange BTC
Total reserves of BTC on major centralized exchanges are about 3.6232 million.
In the latest 1-day change, Coinbase increased by about 604 BTC, OKX by about 332 BTC, Gemini by about 299 BTC, Binance by about 83 BTC; the disclosed major exchanges' total balance slightly increased, with no abnormal concentrated inflow of thousands of BTC into a single platform.
Stablecoin Liquidity
Total stablecoin scale is about $300.83 billion, increasing 0.34% in 24 hours, about $1 billion increase; 7-day increase is only about $425 million (+0.14%), and 30-day still decreased by 0.96%.
USDT is about $182.99 billion, increasing 0.55% in 24 hours but basically flat over 7 days; USDC is about $72.23 billion, decreasing 0.12% in 24 hours and down 1.78% over 30 days.
Today stablecoins showed a clear single-day rebound, but weekly increments remain weak, more like a short-term supplement rather than sustained on-chain USD expansion.
Contract Data
BTC open interest is about $47.16 billion, 24-hour contract trading volume about $42.1 billion, spot trading about $3.33 billion, contract trading about 12.6 times spot.
In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations were about $28.5 million, with longs about $22.6 million and shorts about $6 million; BTCUSDT latest funding rate is close to 0%.
Current leverage does not show obvious one-sided crowding, but trading still clearly favors derivatives.
Important News Today
US July CPI year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month +0.1%; core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, month-on-month +0.2%, all in line with market expectations.
The data did not create new inflation shocks nor gave obvious signals of unexpected easing. After release, US stock futures reacted limitedly, meaning no new strong directional catalyst for BTC at the macro level for now.
What to Watch Next
Currently, the most noteworthy is: ETF turning positive again, stablecoins increasing about $1 billion in a single day, but ETF inflow is only $7.8 million, and stablecoin 7-day increment is only $425 million, while exchange BTC balances slightly increased.
If in the next few days stablecoin weekly increments continue to expand, ETF inflows enlarge again, and exchange BTC balances start to decline, then spot liquidity can be considered truly improved; if today's stablecoin single-day increment quickly reverses and ETF inflows remain small, the funding situation is still volatile rather than a trend improvement.
On-chain also shows divergence: net increase of 1,360 BTC above 100 BTC, but decrease of 4,193 BTC in 1,000–10,000 BTC. Only if the 1,000 BTC+ range also turns to sustained increase and exchange balances do not rise, this large-chip signal is more credible; otherwise, it should still be regarded primarily as address tier migration.
$BTC #星球日报 The strongest part of this analysis is the BTC-vs-ETH divergence. BTC can remain the cleaner signal for broad crypto direction, while ETH can temporarily decouple and invalidate a BTC-based trade thesis.
I’d read the setup like this:
BTC: weaker price action → broader risk sentiment still cautious.
ETH: stronger recovery → short thesis needs more confirmation.
$1,910 ETH: useful as a conditional level in your framework, not a guaranteed support/resistance line.
CPI: better treated as a volatility catalyst than a prediction tool.
Risk management: the “protect the watermelon, give up the sesame” idea is probably the best lesson here. 🍉
The key is avoiding the trap of thinking “BTC is bearish, therefore ETH must also be short.” Correlation is useful for context, but divergence can persist longer than expected.CPI Landing Doesn't Rescue the Market! September Rate Hike Game Still On, Analysis of the Crypto Market's Subsequent Rhythm
Many people are hoping that tonight's CPI will directly determine the September interest rate and open a clear upward trend for the crypto circle, but the reality will most likely disappoint.
The latest CME swap rate data shows: a 63.9% probability of maintaining the rate in September, and a 36.1% probability of a rate hike.
Even if the probability of a rate hike falls from a high level and drops below 50%, it is still at a critical point of the long-short game, and the risk of tightening by a September rate hike has not been completely eliminated. The easing expectations cannot be fulfilled all at once, which is the core reason why the crypto market cannot directly rebound in a trend.
This CPI slight cooling only slightly alleviates market anxiety and does not completely reverse the monetary policy tone. What can truly determine the interest rate direction and drive a sustained recovery in the crypto circle are the following two key data sets:
1. Thursday's PPI data: if corporate inflation continues to weaken, it indicates synchronized cooling of upstream and downstream inflation;
2. Friday's retail data: if consumption momentum marginally slows, it proves the overheating pressure on the economy has eased.
Once both PPI and retail weaken, the market will directly question the necessity of a September rate hike by the Fed, further suppressing the probability of a rate hike and loosening risk assets.
Here is a clear delineation of the crypto market's corresponding rate hike probability levels:
1. Rate hike probability falls below 30%: enters a safe zone, with Bitcoin and altcoins generally oscillating bullishly, opening rebound space;
2. Rate hike probability falls by 10%–20%: enters a strong safe zone, easing expectations fully heat up, and the market begins a repair rally;
3. Rate hike probability falls below 10%: the September rate hike risk is completely reversed, and the crypto circle has a chance to start a wave trend rally.
Current summary:
The CPI alone is insufficient to reverse tightening expectations; the market remains in a wait-and-see game. The short-term crypto market is unlikely to see a one-sided surge and will most likely continue a volatile and repetitive pattern. The real window for change lies in the chain of data releases on Thursday and Friday. Be patient until the rate hike risk is completely cleared, then follow the trend to position for a rally.
⚠️ Personal macro market interpretation, not investment advice #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
$BTC $ETH
CPI landed: BTC didn't rise, ETH stronger, will there be a rate hike in September?
The July CPI released tonight rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, all in line with market expectations and continuing to decline from last month.
This data is a "small positive" for the market, not a "big positive."
It rules out the risk of inflation exceeding expectations again, forcing the Fed to accelerate rate hikes, but since the result was not below expectations, it is insufficient to drive the market to reprice easing.
So, will there be a rate hike in September?
This CPI weakens the necessity for a rate hike but does not completely rule out the possibility. Overall inflation is still at 3.4%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and energy prices have increased nearly 15% year-over-year; however, core inflation is cooling, employment data is clearly weakening, and the Fed currently has no urgent reason to tighten policy further.
The market currently estimates about a 55%–60% chance of holding rates steady in September, and about a 40%–45% chance of a rate hike. I personally also lean toward pausing rate hikes, but the final decision will depend on upcoming PPI, August CPI, and nonfarm payroll data.
The price reaction of the coins is also very real.
BTC fell from around $64,400 to $64,080 after the data release, then continued to oscillate around $64,000. This indicates macro pressure has eased, but the market lacks new buying interest, and BTC remains within the large range of $62,000–$66,000.
In contrast, ETH held near $1,900, showing significantly stronger intraday performance than BTC, indicating funds are tentatively testing riskier assets with higher volatility. However, ETH still needs to firmly hold $1,903–$1,910 to have room to challenge $1,925–$1,940; if it falls back below $1,880, this rebound will noticeably cool off.
Overall, this CPI only "removes some of the negatives" and is not a signal of a trend reversal.
What really matters next is whether BTC can break out with volume after the US stock market opens, and whether ETH's relative strength against BTC can continue.Inflation data is moderate, stock and bond markets are booming, gold is approaching historic highs, and arbitrage trading is booming in emerging markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin closed slightly lower, with trading volume caught up by a wave of new coins—while the macro wind was blowing, the crypto market seemed wrapped in a protective shield. Outline - 🔍 Macro Warmth and Crypto Coolness - 💸 Hot Money Flowing to New Casinos: $SNDK and $BEAT Why Volume Surges - 📊 Cross-Asset Signals: Gold Approaches New Highs, VIX Quiet Undercurrents - 📌 Trading Window: Wait Patiently or Follow Hot Money Today's Snapshot $BTC 63,853, -0.52% $ETH 1,901, +0.61% $QQQ +0.87%, $SPY +0.28% $DXY -0.09%, $GLD +0.99% $IBIT + 0.71% VIX 14.77, -3.27% US Crude Oil (USO) 126.56, -0.82% Dow 53,848.33, +0.10% I. Macro Warmth and Crypto Coolness 🌬️ Overnight US CPI fully met expectations, dispelling market concerns about a Fed rate hike in September. Institutions like Pimco and Yardeni added fuel to the fire—one loudly called for a hold-and-hold position, while another raised the S&P target to 8,400. Funds immediately bet with their feet: tech stock $QQQ rose 0.87%, the Dow hit a new high of 53,848.33, and gold $GLD surged 0.99%, connecting with emerging marketsAfter the CPI release, will you adjust your position immediately or continue to observe?
Meeting expectations is the best expectation, but I still choose to hold for now.
I glanced at it tonight; CPI came out at 3.4%, in line with expectations. $BTC first dropped then rose, falling from 64452 to around 64000 before bouncing back, now hovering around 64100. Liquidations reached 223 million, affecting over 100,000 people.
The data itself is not surprising; meeting expectations is the best expectation.
On the CME side, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 47% to 44.1%, while the probability of no change rose to 55.9%. Oil prices rebounded more than 20% this month, so inflation hasn't been completely suppressed. Employment data is also weak; July nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000.
BTC is now at 64100, failing to break above 65000 or drop below 61000. Data that meets expectations won't provide new direction for the market; most likely, it will continue to oscillate between 63500 and 64900. Movement up or down is possible, but neither is certain. Friday still has PPI, and next week the Fed minutes are due—lots of events lined up.
Before a direction emerges, taking action is a gamble. I choose to keep watching and wait for Friday's PPI. Meeting expectations means no direction; no direction means no action.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Your framework makes sense as a market-reading exercise, but I’d avoid treating those BTC levels as guaranteed reactions.
The actual July CPI was 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 2.5%, both broadly in line with expectations. After the release, September hike expectations eased somewhat, but the CPI print did not completely settle the Fed question.
For the setup you described, the cleanest interpretation is:
Hotter than 3.4%: more pressure on risk assets.
Around 3.4%: likely more emphasis on positioning/liquidity than the headline itself.
Cooler than 3.4%: potentially supportive for BTC/ETH, but only if yields and the dollar cooperate.
Big lesson: a CPI number can trigger volatility without determining the whole trend.
And your last line is probably the most sensible one: if you aren't confident about the reaction, staying flat is a valid outcome. You don't have to catch the first move.Your core read is reasonable, but I’d tweak one point: “no catalyst” is a little too strong. July CPI did meet expectations at 3.4% YoY, while core CPI came in at 2.5%. The softer inflation data also reduced the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike.
BTC nevertheless stayed around the $64K area after the release, which suggests the market had largely priced in the CPI outcome.
So the interesting question now is not whether CPI was bullish, but whether buyers can actually turn that macro relief into a breakout.
Your framework could be:
CPI = confirmation, not necessarily catalyst.
If BTC remains trapped around the $62K–$66K range, patience matters more than predicting the next candle. A clean breakout with sustained volume would tell us much more than the CPI headline itself.
And those previous 10.75% / 7.58% post-CPI moves are useful historical context—but they don't guarantee a repeat this time.Quick reality check: the CPI result is now out, and the post you saw was basically right on the headline number. July CPI came in at 3.4% year over year, versus 3.5% in June; core CPI was 2.5%.
That’s a mildly supportive macro signal, but “CPI ≤3.4% = liquidity ready to pump” is too simplistic. Markets still have to digest the Fed outlook, yields, and positioning. In fact, the initial BTC reaction was relatively muted around the $64K area.
And since you’re talking about taking a leveraged BTC/ETH position, I can’t coach you on entering or sizing a trade. The safer takeaway is: don’t let one CPI print turn into “I have to make this trade work.” Your “close the app and let the market decide” mindset is much healthier than repeatedly reacting to every candle.There has been a very interesting phenomenon in the storage sector recently: volatility has clearly decreased, but trading volume still ranks among the top in the market.
The current trend of Hynix reminds me of the previous phase of SpaceX. After extreme deleveraging ended, both momentum chasing funds and panic sellers exited simultaneously, prices no longer fluctuate wildly, but chips are still being exchanged at high frequency.
This is usually a common structure before a recovery.
Of course, high turnover and low amplitude are not necessarily 100% accumulation; it could also be that upper-level funds are distributing during the rebound. So what needs to be confirmed next is whether trading volume can continue to shrink during pullbacks, whether the stage lows can gradually rise, and whether prices can truly break away from the sideways range when volume expands.
However, fundamentally, I do not believe the storage cycle has peaked yet.
What broke down earlier were mostly narrative bubbles about perpetual shortages and ever-rising prices, not the profit logic of Samsung, Hynix, and MU. AI servers are still increasing per-machine memory capacity, HBM and server DRAM supply remain tight, and most new capacity won’t be significantly released until after 2028.
NAND might be the first segment to see supply improvements.
On one hand, NAND expansion and process transitions are relatively faster; on the other hand, consumer-grade SSDs have weaker tolerance for price increases compared to AI servers. Therefore, if differentiation begins within storage, I would lean more towards the three major original manufacturers who have pricing power over HBM and server DRAM, rather than $SNDK, which is mainly exposed to the NAND cycle.
This is also why I believe Hynix’s mid-term profit ceiling and certainty are higher than SNDK’s.
Based on the current price near 1,420,000 KRW, Hynix’s common stock has already undergone very thorough valuation compression. This may not be the absolute bottom, but betting on another round of extreme deleveraging has lower odds compared to positioning for mean reversion.
$SKHY previously showed an extremely exaggerated premium relative to Korean common stock; this premium comes from the scarcity demand of U.S. capital and does not fully belong to the company’s value. It’s hard to precisely predict when the premium will converge, but once the arbitrage channel improves, the return could be very fast.
After extreme market conditions, time itself is a repair tool.
There’s no need to rush to guess the exact day it will start; as long as support does not make new lows and volume remains in the market, the odds of positioning for recovery now are much more stable than continuing to chase shorts. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ This is a strong thesis. The key message is AI infrastructure growth is real, but strong earnings don’t automatically mean the stocks/tokens keep pumping.
The logic is:
Strong earnings → validates AI demand
Huge capex → creates liquidity pressure
Expectations already high → sell-the-news risk
Best approach → wait for price discovery and confirmation
Then rotate into quality setups rather than chasing momentum
One thing I’d be careful with: the specific revenue, backlog, BTC price, and sector-turnover figures are time-sensitive, so they should be verified before presenting them as “real-time numbers.”If your funds are within 100,000 yuan and you plan to enter the crypto space, it is recommended to carefully read this passage first.
Because for many ordinary people, the real danger of trading crypto is not the rise and fall of a single market, but holding onto the fantasy of "getting rich overnight" by continuously increasing and averaging down positions, which eventually turns the investment into an unbearable burden. $SOL
If you really want to trade long-term, rather than constantly searching for so-called "exploding coins" and "insider information," it's better to calm down and learn first. Basic knowledge, market news, capital flow, technical analysis, and most importantly, risk control—all need to be gradually built into your own trading system.
Here is a relatively simple trading approach that can be started from three aspects.
Step one: Choose coins.
Open the daily chart level and prioritize observing coins that are in a clear uptrend with good liquidity. You can use MACD to observe trend changes, especially paying attention to golden crosses forming near or above the zero line.
But note, MACD is only an auxiliary tool and does not mean that a "golden cross" will definitely lead to a rise. Any indicator can fail.
Step two: Find buy and sell points. $BTC
Choose a core moving average you are familiar with as a trend reference.
If the price is running above the moving average, you can continue to observe and hold; if it effectively breaks below the moving average, consider reducing your position or exiting to avoid holding onto wishful thinking after the trend has changed.
The key is not to predict every rise and fall, but to be able to cut losses promptly when your judgment is wrong.
Step three: Manage your position size well. $LSK +25% to $0.0962 in 24h, clearly outperforming the flat market.
Main driver:
Explosive derivatives and liquidity surge. Spot volume up 1,510% to $28M. Top gainer on Futures with volume +514% — strong speculative buying, possible short squeeze.
Technical breakout above key MAs. RSI 7-day at 79.3 (overbought). Mild rotation into Layer-2 tokens.
Short-term:
Hold above $0.0893 support → possible retest of $0.1036 high.
Break below → momentum weakens.
Volume staying above $20M is key.
This is a liquidity-driven move with no clear fundamentals. Not financial advice. High risk of reversal. Only risk what you can afford to lose. DYOR.$BTC kept dragging people around $63,850—not a big drop but enough to wear down patience. $AVAX dropped to $6.35, $SUI barely held at $0.69, while $LINK rose 1.74% to $8.82. Just because a few coins are moving doesn't mean the whole altcoin market is alive; it's more like funds are hiding somewhere, jumping from one narrative to another, rather than a broad rally. The real question now is: where is the money going? There are indeed capital probing in RWA and DeFi, and short-term investors speculating on AI concepts, but these are only localized moves. Look at $HBAR and $VET, these established L1s are actually falling in the shadows, showing that capital isn't buying with confidence, but picking on soft targets. In this rotation situation, if trading volume can't keep up, what rises today could be dumped back tomorrow, and chasing the high is the easiest to make a big deal out. A real Altseason requires several hard conditions to appear simultaneously: a breakout on high volume, new capital entering the market, and prices stabilizing at key positions. Currently, none of these three are reliable. Inflation data from the US stock market hasn't been released, expectations for Fed rate cuts are still wavering, and Ethereum ETF inflows haven't sustained volume—these are all uncertainties hanging overhead. I don't plan to chase this first wave; the biggest taboo in a rotation market is being swept away by a single day's gains. If the market stabilizes and volume expands in the coming days, this rotation might still have momentum. But if volume shrinks and prices fall back below the breakout level, it will be another round of short-term capital self-entertainmentCPI is out: no surprise, no panic.
US July CPI: CPI YoY: 3.4% vs 3.4% expected
Core CPI: 2.5% vs 2.5% expected
Inflation is cooling, but the data offers no major upside catalyst. September rate-cut expectations remain supported, while “buy the expectation, sell the fact” risk stays high.
$BTC: Support 63,800 → 63,200 | Resistance 64,500 → 65,300
$ETH: Support 1,890 → 1,850 | Resistance 1,940 → 1,980
ETH has higher upside elasticity, but also deeper downside volatility.
#CPIInLineFedWatch The grandiose U.S. national strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, which was hyped up during the election, has recently finally revealed its true and somewhat cold institutional bottom line.
With the latest details of the U.S. Congress's "American Reserve Modernization Act" proposal exposed, everyone has found that this magnificent blueprint, which once excited countless crypto believers to the point of sleeplessness, has been cut down by politicians into a compromised scheme with limited stakes.
Many initially fantasized that the Federal Reserve would directly start the money printing machine, buying 200,000 bitcoins annually on the open market for five consecutive years to accumulate one million bitcoins.
But the cold water of reality is merciless. The clause in the proposal forcing the purchase of coins with real money on the secondary market has been completely removed. Instead, the plan is to lock up the 200,000-plus bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government, which were seized through judicial means, for twenty years.
This means the so-called national reserve is actually a cost-free accounting game.
We need to pay attention to the legal logic behind this change.
The U.S. government currently holds over 200,000 bitcoins worth more than ten billion dollars, mostly confiscated from various dark web, hacker attacks, and financial fraud cases over the years.
In the past, these coins were regularly sent by the U.S. Department of Justice to exchanges to be dumped and converted into dollars to replenish the treasury.
The current bill simply renames this asset, which was going to be sold anyway, and seals it in the Federal Reserve's underground vault for twenty years.
It sounds good, called a "national strategic reserve," but in terms of real market capital flow, it does not bring any new buying pressure.
It only promises not to dump the coins anymore.
Why did it turn out this way?
Once you think it through, it's simple: no sovereign nation can casually give up its fiat seigniorage to a decentralized open-source algorithm.
The arrogance of the U.S. institutional elite determines that they can never truly compromise with Bitcoin.
If the previous aggressive bill had been implemented to buy 200,000 bitcoins annually, it would be equivalent to admitting that the U.S. dollar's credit is rapidly collapsing and needs Bitcoin to forcibly back its credit.
To Wall Street and Washington politicians, this is nothing less than slow suicide.
So this ARMA bill adjustment is, at its core, an extremely clever institutional co-optation.
They use a seemingly favorable title to legitimately incorporate Bitcoin into the U.S. legal system, making it a small vassal of the dollar credit system.
The legal harm of this co-optation is actually very subtle.
When Bitcoin is crowned with the title of "strategic reserve" and chained with a twenty-year lockup, it loses the revolutionary edge of wild growth and disruption of the fiat order it had at birth.
Think about it: when the world's largest Bitcoin holding address becomes the U.S. Treasury, the power to interpret the rules completely falls into the hands of the state apparatus.
They can use anti-money laundering, national security, and other excuses to restrict, audit, or even freeze non-compliant on-chain nodes.
This is like putting the heaviest bridle on a runaway wild horse.
Bitcoin has been co-opted, becoming compliant but also docile.
Personally, I think this kind of compromise is a growing pain that any decentralized asset must endure when reaching a trillion-dollar scale.
If you want to enter the mainstream and have sovereign funds take on your liquidity, you must remove your thorns one by one to cater to institutional rules.
This might bring short-term price stability and institutional recognition, but it also means the golden age that belonged only to cryptopunks, full of rebellious spirit, is accelerating its curtain call.
Capital is partying, but consensus is being eroded.
For you watching this severely neutered U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, do you think the U.S. government locking up 200,000 bitcoins without spending a penny is a long-term epic positive, or does it mark Bitcoin's complete institutional co-optation and loss of its original anti-censorship soul?
Anyway, I think even if locked in the cage of a sovereign nation, Bitcoin's underlying code still runs freely.
It's just no longer the wild world of big meat and big drinks it once was.
#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ 🔥ETH short-term key market analysis: Focus on two core levels
Friends, pay close attention! Today ETH has fully entered a life-and-death battle zone in the short term, with 1900 dollars being the absolute dividing line between bulls and bears for the day, directly determining the subsequent rhythm of rises and falls!
$ETH
Currently, the price has successfully stood above the 1900 mark, which proves that the current market bullish sentiment is not weak. But everyone must not be blindly optimistic; a single stand above does not count as strength. The real core is whether this key level can be firmly held! As long as the subsequent pullback does not break below 1900, this original resistance level will completely transform into strong support, and the short-term bullish upward structure will be truly solidified.
Looking at the upper resistance, 1915-1925 is the current toughest suppression range, with 1925 being today's high point and the key to a breakout. Once volume increases and it stabilizes here, market bullish sentiment will fully erupt, and the market will open up upward space. Conversely, a quick retreat after a surge is a typical false breakout, with a high probability of returning to range-bound oscillation.
$SOL
Focus below on the 1890 short-term balanced support; if broken, the rhythm turns weak. The 1853-1860 range is the ultimate defense zone; losing it means the short-term market will completely weaken.
Simply put: no guessing on rises or falls today! Holding 1900 is the foundation for upward momentum, breaking through 1925 brings new market trends, just follow the key levels and you won’t go wrong!
#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 Brothers, let's chat a bit before bed about tonight's market situation
Tonight the CPI data was released, meeting expectations. The US stock market opened high and surged, but our Bitcoin actually didn't rise and instead fell, which is quite intriguing.
Normally, with inflation coming down and no further pressure to raise interest rates, risk assets should benefit and see some gains, right? But Bitcoin didn't catch this positive momentum at all.
To put it simply, the crypto market's own liquidity is too weak right now; even this macro positive can't support it. While the US stock market is speculating on CPI expectations, we're still struggling with our own liquidity pressure and selling pressure, completely going separate ways.
Many people ask why it doesn't rise despite the positive news?
I think the biggest risk now isn't a drop due to bad news,
but rather when it should rise, it just doesn't—that's the signal we really need to watch out for. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Breaking news: the US July CPI data has been officially released, with overall and core inflation all in line with market expectations, and inflation is slowly cooling down.
To start with the conclusion: the biggest short-term negative warning has been temporarily lifted and will not trigger a new round of strong hawkish expectations.
But everyone must view it rationally. The data only meets the target and does not represent an over-expected positive development. Many funds have already gambled in advance, so don't blindly chase the rally.
The pressure on the U.S. tech sector has eased, and it is highly likely to fluctuate with a slightly stronger tendency to move;
For the crypto market, Bitcoin's short-term environment is warming up, with opportunities to challenge the resistance range above;
ETH is more elastic, and once the macro environment stabilizes, it is expected to see a catch-up rally.
At the same time, two hidden dangers cannot be ignored:
First, the possibility of a rate hike in September has not completely disappeared; employment and inflation data must be continuously monitored;
Second, the CLARITY crypto bill has been postponed, making it impossible to implement a regulatory framework in the short term, and uncertainty remains long-term. #7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another Gold at $4400 is not a price; it is a steel pile driven underground—when global capital begins to pour real gold and silver to build a safe-haven foundation, what I see is not a K-line chart but a load-bearing structural inspection diagram being verified.
The anchor points of this market cycle are simple: expansion of geopolitical fissures, loosening of labor pillars, and the Federal Reserve’s rate hike scaffolding starting to sway. The Abraxas cluster moved nearly 25,000 "XAUT steel beams" in three days, valued at $110 million—this, to me, is a standard steel structure hoisting operation, except the crane is an on-chain hash, and the construction site is the permanent foundation called "gold tokenization."
What is the essence of XAUT? It is not gold; gold is the raw material. XAUT is the structural acceptance certificate issued after locking each ounce of precious metal in a Swiss vault. It tells me that downstream capital is shifting from virtual load-bearing walls to physical completion verification. It’s like the owner no longer trusts the renderings and directly uses a level to measure the slump of the concrete on site—that is the most honest voice about the entire market’s construction cycle.
Tonight’s US July CPI is the kind of "last-minute change order" I hate most when drawing diagrams. It will directly affect the durability of the old building called the US dollar—if the dollar index corrodes, the lintel wall of real interest rates will crack, forcing a re-inspection of the metal structure’s yield strength. And the stalemate in the Hormuz peace talks is like a sudden power outage halfway through welding a steel column joint—no one knows on which floor the residual stress lies.
Central bank gold purchases are silently reinforcing the ground beams; safe-haven buying is the increasing floor load layer by layer. When white papers fly everywhere and token economic models sound flashier than renovation ads, I only care about one question: Has the physical concrete of the vault been poured according to the blueprint? Is the audit report of the gold contract a closed lattice? The Abraxas address is a probe measuring the settlement of this building called the gold tokenization market.
Holding 254,000 XAUT, they are not betting on the price but on the container not breaking brittle.
Structural engineers never doubt the steel; they only doubt the welds. Gold will always be that steel, while XAUT’s smart contracts, custody addresses, and monthly audits are the welds that determine whether this building will have microcracks or collapse entirely during an 8-magnitude earthquake.
Seeing safe-haven funds still entering the same building at today’s open, I can’t help but ask—The market is adding load to the gold price, but has anyone seen the original acceptance report of the foundation? #Gold4400HavenBid AVAX forming a classic Falling Wedge on the 4H chart 👀📉➡️📈
Price keeps printing lower highs and lower lows inside the wedge, but momentum looks to be weakening as buyers defend the lower trendline 🔥 Bulls are now attempting a breakout near resistance.
A confirmed breakout from this structure could trigger a strong relief rally and shift short-term sentiment bullish 🚀 Traders watching closely for volume expansion and continuation above the wedge resistance.
$BTC #CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfLook at the Nasdaq 100 index, how steady it moves (logarithmic K-line)
Only the absurd acceleration from 1995-2000 marks the bubble peak. US stocks simultaneously turned positive, so why don't BTC and ETH dare to rally strongly? The truth is hidden in Kevin Walsh's 10 o'clock speech
US stock market opened with the Nasdaq slightly higher, risk appetite slightly warming up, $BTC and $ETH both mildly rising, but the upward momentum is very weak, completely unwilling to rally unilaterally.
1. $BTC Market Performance
Currently around 64040, slightly up 0.71%, following tech stock sentiment with a small spike, facing short-term resistance at 64500, supported at 64000. CPI data is neutral with no incremental positive news, institutional ETF inflows have slowed, bulls dare not launch a major attack, funds are all locked in waiting for Kevin Walsh's speech to set the tone, mainly range-bound oscillation.
2. $ETH Market Performance
More sluggish linked to BTC's movement, no independent rally, repeatedly tugging around the 1900 level. Divergent valuations from investment banks suppress upward space, lack of large on-chain capital inflows, Nasdaq strength only brings a small pulse, selling pressure appears immediately after the spike.
3. Core Logic
Short-term weak positive correlation with US tech stocks remains, but market focus has completely shifted to the Fed speech at 10 o'clock. If Walsh releases a hawkish stance, Nasdaq and crypto will fall together; if dovish, the two major mainstream coins will have the momentum to break out of the range. Currently, funds are unwilling to bet early, volatility continues to narrow.
4. Practical Reminder
Do not open new positions for heavy speculation, reduce leverage on contracts. Before the speech, rely on high sell and low buy within the range, beware of two-way stop-loss spikes before and after the speech.
⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute investment advice Fully eaten, two waves gained over 100 points $SNDK #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ To be honest, the market has been looking like the southern Hui Nantian recently—wet and sticky, making people lose motivation. But while everyone was staring blankly at the candlestick, Zcash in the corner secretly pulled off something big, causing quite a stir. 🗿 This story starts with its "move." Everyone in the industry knows Zcash has been working on an upgrade called Ironwood, which is essentially a major migration of private accounts. Wow, I thought this kind of technology migration usually just talks about it and takes half a year. Guess what happened? In just two weeks, 67.3% of the ZEC in Orchard's pool was instantly swept away. This speed is even faster than the rush to buy during Double Eleven, with no delays at all. 🚚 Now, Ironwood is no longer the small construction site it once was; it has transformed into the largest private "vault" on the entire internet, holding over 2.6 million coins. This scale would be a top-tier presence in the entire privacy sector. You have to understand, people used to complain that privacy coins were useless, that they were invisible, just for show. Now that the numbers were out, it was like a slap in the face to those mocking people—not hard, but quite loud. 👋 Actually, I really understand the drive the Zcash team is thinking. In this era of running around naked, every trace you swipe your card, order takeout, or buy a ticket—is recorded clearly, living like an open diary. At this point, someone tells you there is a kind of moneyI was completely stunned, $SNDK surged to $1365 intraday
Several leading brokerages have long set the target price at $1400, now only $35 away from the target
With the super cycle of AI storage boosting demand, NAND supply remains tight, the company's gross margin has surged to 78%, and long-term locked price orders from cloud providers support the performance, giving bulls strong confidence. CPI has stabilized, and inflation has not risen
The market remains calm, with rate hike expectations as the only point of contention
July CPI data will be officially released tonight: the actual value is 3.4%, exactly in line with expectations, previous value was 3.5%.
No surprises, no shocks, inflation at least has not risen again, considered a stable landing.
On the market, gold and silver initially plunged sharply after the data release, then quickly made a V-shaped rebound, almost fully recovering the losses; whatever was hammered down was repaired back, overall nothing happened.
But the data itself is not the key, the key lies in its impact on monetary policy expectations. Before the data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September versus maintaining rates was about fifty-fifty. Now that the CPI hurdle is passed, it depends on whether the market will revise down rate hike expectations.
If rate hike expectations cool significantly, that is the real change brought by this CPI, and also the core variable to watch tonight.
$XAU $XAG
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The market was calm, but funds had already split into five 👀 groups: $BTC and $ETH, standing at the forefront, smoothing out all index fluctuations. But the real signal lies beneath the surface—the current beneath this ship has actually become extremely picky. I observed a very typical phenomenon: traders today no longer treat altcoins as iron plates. They are not "successive rotations" but rather "sector crossings." Some jumped from L1 to DeFi, then switched to RWA, then moved into AI, and in the end, they never forgot memes. This is no longer the old "elephant enters the market, the whole market swallows the water" market; instead, funds flow like water, searching for the smallest resistance in narrow gaps. Currently, I'm focusing on several directions. Looking at them separately, they look like this: In the L1 sector, $SUI, $AVAX, $NEAR, $TIA, $APT, $DOT, $MATIC, $INJ, $ATOM, $ARB, $OP are still large containers for capital support. There are differences at the consensus level, but liquidity has never truly abandoned them. In the DeFi and RWA sectors, $ONDO, $PENDLE, $AAVE, $MKR, $LDO, $UNI, $CRV, $JTO, $JUP, $RUNE, $CVX, there was almost no collective upheaval in this rally, but underlying protocol data is quietly recovering. Don't look calm; money is gradually laid out at the bottom. On the AI narrative side, it's $TA