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Bitcoin: Late Bear Market Compression, Demand Still Not Ignited
Glassnode's Latest Assessment: Bitcoin has entered the late bear market compression phase. The foundational conditions for a bottom are coming together, but genuine demand signals have yet to appear.
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What the Market is Doing
Price is trapped between two on-chain cost lines: the median realized price below ≈ $63,000, and the short-term holder cost basis above ≈ $68,700. Spot trading volume has shrunk to the lowest since 2019. Macro positives and new highs in US stocks fail to move the market—typical "selling pressure retreat, buying absence" scenario.
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On the Bear Side: Exhausting
• Profit-taking supply is approaching historical bear bottom levels; sellable chips are becoming scarce
• Seller exhaustion indicators hit cycle lows; aSOPR has been rejected near the break-even line 9 times
• Leverage that should be cut and chips that should be sold are being cleaned out; downward momentum is continuously weakening
• But long-term holders are still selling at a loss (single-day realized loss peak of $280 million); the last batch of "old players cutting losses" is not over yet
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On the Bull Side: No One's Coming
• Net inflows to spot ETFs are extremely low, even continuous outflows (average daily volume shrunk about 80% from peak)
• Coins continue moving to exchanges; order book buy-side depth is thinning
• Derivatives hold relatively high leverage longs; nominally "bullish," but no real money has entered—it's all paper positions
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Two Directional Switches
• Holding above $68,700 + volume increase + ETF inflows → demand returns, breaking out of compression zone
• Breaking below $58,500 → thin buy-side, bull squeeze, likely accelerating downside
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In Summary: This is not a "reversal" yet, but a muted mode at the tail end of the bear market—on-chain is bottoming, sentiment cooling, but Glassnode’s three matches needed: long-term holders stopping losses, stable institutional flows, and price recovering to a real mean, have not all lit up simultaneously. Patience is more valuable than prediction; wait for demand to speak for itself. On-chain data this week carries a strong sense of a "bottom".
· The 62,000-65,000 range holds about 1.79 million BTC in cost basis positions; once the price breaks through, it’s like a mountain to climb
· The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to around +0.7, bringing back the "digital gold" narrative
Everyone is saying "on-chain data shows bottom characteristics," but I insist: on-chain data is a lagging indicator, not a predictive one. It’s true that long-term holders are seeing deeper unrealized losses, but "historically coinciding with bottoms" does not mean "this is the bottom now." I use on-chain data for only one thing: to find out what smart money is buying, not to look at the "overall trend."
Last month I made a stupid mistake: I saved my mnemonic phrase screenshots on a cloud drive. On the day the Coldcard incident broke, I didn’t sleep all night and transferred all my assets to a new wallet early the next morning. Not getting hacked was luck, not skill. Security is something you can never take chances with even once.
Brothers, before 8:30 PM tonight, do one thing: check the stop losses on all your positions. If you haven’t set them, set them now; if you have, tighten them to within 3%.
#链上数据 #OnChain #BTC 📌 Why is Japan's interest rate hike called a "black swan"?
Since the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March 2024, it has raised rates four times, pushing the policy rate to 1% (the highest since 1995). The market currently prices in a 74%-78% probability of another rate hike on September 18. It is called a "black swan" because the yen is a core global funding currency. A large-scale carry trade (borrowing low-interest yen to buy high-yield assets) could trigger a massive unwind if rates rise, causing leveraged funds to exit global risk assets and creating cross-market shocks. When Japan unexpectedly raised rates in July 2024, the Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% in one day, and Bitcoin dropped 25% in a week—serving as a cautionary example.
⚠️ Impact path of rate hikes on EWJ (Japan ETF):
1. Carry trade unwind: yen appreciation → leveraged funds sell Japanese stocks to cover yen shortfalls, causing short-term pressure, with core heavyweight stocks hit first
2. Central bank ETF reduction: The Bank of Japan will implement a normalized ETF reduction plan starting January 2026, directly reducing market buying and amplifying volatility
3. Sector divergence: Bank stocks benefit from wider interest margins, while tech/growth stocks face valuation pressure; EWJ’s holdings structure determines net impact direction
4. Currency effect: EWJ is an unhedged ETF, so yen appreciation directly drags down USD-denominated returns; even if Japanese stocks hold steady, USD investors’ returns decline
✅ Current performance and fund flows of EWJ
- Since early 2026, EWJ has gained over 13%, attracting more than $4 billion in inflows year-to-date
- However, in March, due to Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices, EWJ fell 9% in a single month
- On August 13, amid rising expectations of a Japanese rate hike, global risk assets came under pressure simultaneously, and the Japanese stock market’s afternoon gains narrowed significantly
In summary: Japan’s rate hikes cause increased short-term volatility and medium-term structural divergence for EWJ. If the yen appreciates moderately and carry trades unwind orderly, the impact is manageable; if the yen appreciates sharply and disruptively, EWJ may face significant downward pressure. It is recommended to closely watch the Bank of Japan’s September 18 policy meeting statements and forward guidance.Sister Wood is here to chat about how I came up with this grid strategy and clearly explain the logic to you. SPCX grid long position entered at 134 on August 10th, currently floating profit is 40%. The timing of this move was pretty good.
When entering on August 10th, the price was right around 134. At that time, the market had just gone through a round of pullback and then stabilized above 130. The lows kept rising, confirming an overall uptrend structure. Placing the grid at this position was a right-side entry after trend confirmation, not a bottom-fishing bet on a rebound.
From 134 to around 146 now, in three days, the floating profit is 40 points. This return efficiency is quite good. Looking back, the core logic at entry was a combination of short squeeze, Nasdaq weight adjustment expectations, and a blackout period—three forces overlapping. These three factors are still fermenting now. Short positions have been squeezed from 34% down to 11%. S3 Partners said those wanting to short have run out of ammo. The upward move plus short covering are the two forces pushing the price.
But there are still variables ahead. On August 20th, 319 million shares will be unlocked, and in September, over 700 million more shares will be unlocked. The circulating supply is continuously expanding, which puts pressure on the price. The grid base position can be held to let profits run, but don’t add positions at this level. 149 to 152 is the first resistance zone. If it can’t break through continuously, reduce positions as needed. Add new positions on a pullback to 132–135.
The entry point was well chosen, with a solid profit buffer, but the road ahead is long. Holding on is important, but knowing when to take profits is also key. $BTC $ETH $SPCX
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Additionally, looking at the data from high-net-worth investors and small-scale investors, there has been a reversal in the past month. This data is probably the most positive short-term indicator we've seen.
Starting from July 30, when $BTC was at $63,000, there was a clear sign of a large number of small-scale investors holding fewer than 10 Bitcoins exiting their positions, and most of these coins were transferred into the hands of high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 Bitcoins.
Some might question whether these coins were transferred to exchange addresses, thus appearing as high-net-worth holdings. However, the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges after July 30 was not high. Compared to the reduction by small-scale investors and the increase by high-net-worth investors, the difference is significant.
Therefore, it is very likely that the reduction by small-scale investors was indeed absorbed by high-net-worth investors. More and more signs are starting to feel like the latter half of a bear market.
The proportion of short-term BTC holders continues to decline, a phenomenon that has appeared in the late stages of past bear markets.
There are fewer short-term traders, new funds are inactive, and market attention is decreasing; meanwhile, chips are gradually settling into the hands of long-term holders.
The hardest phase of a bear market is often not the daily big drops.
It's when, in the end, even the number of people discussing it keeps decreasing.
The next step is when the proportion of short-term holders rises again from a low level.
That will indicate that new participants and new demand are starting to enter the market again. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #黄金维持高位，机构年末仍看涨 🔥 THE “TOKENS DON’T CAPTURE VALUE” THESIS IS GETTING HARDER TO IGNORE — AND HARDER TO DEFEND
For years, one of the biggest criticisms of crypto tokens has been simple:
The network generates revenue, but the token holders don’t necessarily capture it.
That assumption is increasingly being challenged by new token-economic models.
Look at what’s happening across several major ecosystems:
⚡ Hyperliquid
A large share of protocol fees is being directed toward token buybacks, creating a more direct connection between network activity and $HYPE demand.
🚀 Pump
Token burns and revenue-linked supply reductions are being used to create a deflationary mechanism around $PUMP.
🦄 Uniswap
The introduction of fee-related mechanisms changes the conversation around whether protocol activity can eventually translate into value for $UNI.
👻 Aave
Automated buyback mechanisms are creating another potential link between protocol revenue and token demand.
🔵 Aptos
Fee growth, supply mechanics and token burns are changing the economics of $APT as network activity expands.
🟣 Solana
Proposals to significantly increase the portion of fees burned could further strengthen the connection between network usage and $SOL’s supply dynamics.
The bigger story isn’t any single token.
It’s the evolution of value accrual.
The next phase of crypto may increasingly be about answering one question:
«If a blockchain generates billions in economic activity, who actually captures that value?»
Revenue alone isn’t enough.
Usage matters.
Fees matter.
Buybacks matter.
Burns matter.
Supply dynamics matter.
And if more protocols successfully connect real network activity → token demand or supply reduction, the market may need to rethink how it values crypto assets.
The narrative is shifting from:
“What does this token represent?”
to “What economic value does this token actually capture?” 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI #KoreaChipsLeadRebound Apple, known for squeezing suppliers on price, is about to be countered by memory manufacturers
This year's iPhone 18 Pro will set two records simultaneously:
The most expensive iPhone ever, and the iPhone with the highest memory cost ratio
The top-spec iPhone 18 is expected to reach 20,000
This time, the biggest expense isn't the screen, camera, or even the 2nm chip
But the DRAM and NAND that usually go unnoticed
The 12GB + 1TB iPhone 18 Pro Max
The total material cost of the device may be nearly $300 more than the previous generation
It might even consume 40% of the entire device's material cost
An even more surreal scene is happening at TSMC
Apple processor wafers worth about $1 billion have already been made
The chips are ready, orders are in, packaging lines are set, but the memory hasn't arrived, so the entire A20 Pro can't be produced
Most likely, the lower capacity versions will see a smaller price increase, while the 1TB and 2TB versions will see a significant jump
AI hasn't fully entered your phone yet, but the AI bill might have arrived first Goldman Sachs’ $2.25B NEOS acquisition is about more than buying an ETF manager—it’s a direct move into Bitcoin yield products.
NEOS manages around $30B, including BTCI, which generates income by selling call options. But don’t be fooled by its ~27% distribution rate: high yield doesn’t guarantee high returns, and upside can be limited during strong BTC rallies.
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI CPI cooling is just the first hurdle: what BTC really lacks is incremental capital
July CPI did not create a black swan: overall year-on-year 3.4%, core year-on-year 2.5%, both in line with expectations. Inflation continues to ease, September rate hike pressure decreases accordingly, US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and risk assets get a breathing window.
But don’t equate "weakened macro headwinds" directly with "a new bull market starting."
More importantly is the capital side: on August 12, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $61.1 million, while the ETH ETF only had a net inflow of about $7.4 million.
This indicates that CPI resolves valuation suppression but does not automatically create new buying demand.
What truly determines the subsequent market are three things:
Whether US Treasury yields can continue to fall, whether ETFs can resume continuous net inflows, and whether BTC can break through key resistance with volume after macro conditions improve.
If prices still can’t rise under favorable conditions, it’s even more worth being cautious about existing selling pressure above.
CPI is responsible for opening the door; whether capital is willing to come in decides how far the market can go. $BTC #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 CPI failed, will tonight's PPI bring a rate cut?
After yesterday's CPI release, I think the market has already given a very clear answer. The most important macro contradiction now is the worsening employment situation versus war-driven inflation—who moves faster.
July CPI rose only 0.1% month-over-month, and year-over-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, overall in line with expectations.
At least from the consumer side, the energy shock caused by the war has not yet triggered a full secondary inflation.
But on the other hand, employment has already started to weaken significantly.
July nonfarm payrolls showed negative growth, and previous months were further revised down.
So the Federal Reserve is now facing a very awkward combination: employment needs looser monetary policy, but inflation is far from low enough to allow easing.
PPI is the next piece of the puzzle.
1. Why tonight's PPI is more important than usual
PPI is the Producer Price Index.
Simply put, CPI looks at how expensive things are for consumers buying final goods, while PPI looks at whether costs and prices have risen first at the enterprise level when producing and selling goods and services.
Many costs do not immediately pass through to consumers.
Crude oil rising does not mean all supermarket goods will immediately increase in price.
There is a time lag through transportation, chemicals, packaging, manufacturing, wholesale, and finally retail.
So after the war pushes up energy and logistics costs, PPI often reveals inflation pressure on the business side earlier than CPI.
The current market consensus expectation is: PPI month-over-month +0.2%, previous value -0.3%; PPI excluding food and energy about +0.3% month-over-month.
In other words, the market is already prepared for a rebound in PPI from a low level.
So seeing +0.2% tonight should not be called an inflation rebound.
What really matters is how much it rebounds and whether the increase comes from energy or has spread to core services and other costs.
2. Most likely a rebound tonight, but not explosive
June PPI fell 0.3% month-over-month, the largest drop in fourteen months.
But that number had a strong energy factor: final demand goods prices fell significantly, and energy prices dropped sharply. Meanwhile, the narrower PPI excluding food, energy, and trade still rose 0.1%.
So we cannot simply interpret -0.3% as the U.S. entering deflation.
The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated again, with supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East pushing oil prices back above 80 and even higher; as of today, the Middle East situation remains unresolved.
This means it is very reasonable for energy, transportation, and raw material costs on the business side to rebound compared to June.
Therefore, I do not expect to see negative PPI again tonight.
My baseline scenario is headline PPI around +0.1% to +0.3%, core around +0.2% to +0.3%.
If it ends up here, I think it is a relatively comfortable number: the war has indeed created some cost pressure,
but it has not evolved into full-scale production-side inflation.
And this is exactly the answer risk assets want to see now.
3. The best outcome tonight
There is an easily overlooked issue here.
If tonight's PPI suddenly turns sharply negative, it is not necessarily super positive.
Because employment is already bad enough.
If nonfarm payrolls are very poor + CPI is very low + PPI suddenly very low,
the market will start to ask why inflation is falling so fast?
If the answer is that demand is rapidly deteriorating, then the trading logic will gradually shift from "rate cut is good" to "recession trade."
So at this stage, the perfect data for the U.S. stock market is not that all numbers are as low as possible.
Rather, employment cools moderately, inflation declines moderately, and the economy does not suddenly stall.
This is the so-called soft landing window.
Therefore, the truly comfortable PPI tonight is near market expectations: 0.1% to 0.2%, core no more than 0.3%.
4. The danger is if PPI hits 0.4% or even higher
This is the biggest tail risk tonight.
Because once headline PPI and core PPI both significantly exceed expectations, the market can no longer simply attribute it to oil prices.
The logic will immediately become: war → energy/logistics price increases → rising business costs → spread to service and goods prices → CPI/PCE rebound in the future.
And U.S. employment is already deteriorating.
If both happen simultaneously: the economy weakens while prices rise again,
this could evolve into stagflation.
Inflation itself is not that scary.
A weak economy itself is not that scary.
The Fed can raise rates for the former and cut rates for the latter.
The worst is when both occur together.
5. Trading logic for various assets
If tonight's PPI is below or basically meets expectations: the first reaction is still positive for risk assets.
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields tend to fall, the dollar weakens, and financial conditions marginally ease.
Nasdaq, AI, semiconductors, optical modules, storage, software, and BTC/ETH will all benefit.
Among them, software stocks and crypto, typical long-duration/high-liquidity assets, are often most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
After yesterday's CPI basically met expectations, the U.S. stock market reacted similarly, with Nasdaq rising, U.S. Treasury yields falling, and the dollar weakening.
Gold is special.
Gold now has two logics simultaneously: war-driven safe haven logic + real interest rate logic from a weakening U.S. economy.
So if PPI is low and rates fall, gold benefits.
If PPI is very high but the market starts trading war inflation and stagflation, gold may get another layer of support.
Therefore, the macro structure of gold is, to some extent, more comfortable than purely high-valuation tech stocks.
I will not use tonight's PPI to judge oil direction.
The primary variable for oil prices remains the U.S.-Iran situation, the Strait of Hormuz, actual supply, inventories, and negotiation progress.
As of today, oil prices are supported by the deadlock in U.S.-Iran talks and shipping risks, while being suppressed by downgraded demand expectations and a large increase in U.S. crude inventories.
So this is a typical geopolitical > supply-demand > Federal Reserve scenario #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 The July U.S. CPI data has been released, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with core inflation rising 2.5% year-on-year, both in line with expectations and slightly below forecasts. With inflation cooling down, the market's concerns about a rate hike in September have been temporarily eased.
But as everyone can see, Bitcoin remains lukewarm, while Ethereum is almost unmoved. Many people are puzzled: with macro positive news, why can't the coin price soar?
First, this round of positive news had already been priced in by the market in advance. The CPI release was not a surprise beyond everyone's expectations; early on-stage funds chose to take profits, which is a typical positive factor realized. Macro only reduces the risk of a sharp decline, not that capital is actively entering the market.
Second, the internal pressures of the two coins are completely different.
Above Bitcoin, there are 65,000 to 68,000 trapped positions, and without massive incremental funds, it is difficult to break through;
Ethereum is even more struggling; the Layer 2 network continues to divert funds, lacks independent narratives, and rebounds often lag behind Bitcoin. If Bitcoin remains stagnant, Ethereum will find it difficult to break out of an independent rally.
Summing up the current landscape, the market still remains a game of stock competition.
Macroeconomics determines the lower bound; as long as inflation does not rebound, it is difficult for liquidity to stamp on and plunge;
Chip structure and market narrative determine the upper limit of the upside. Without new stories or clear signals of rate cuts, ordinary economic data cannot drive the main rally. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool, #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings reports debut one after another After XRP has an ETF, the biggest benefit may not be capital inflow, but that it can no longer rely solely on storytelling for valuation.
In the past, market discussions about $XRP most often involved regulation, litigation, payment partnerships, and bank adoption.
These topics have maintained XRP's attention for many years, allowing it to remain on the mainstream market cap list long-term even without popular DeFi and Meme ecosystems.
Now, with the emergence of XRP-related ETF products, traditional capital has a more convenient entry point. SEC registration documents
Many people understand ETFs simply as a buying advantage, but for XRP, it may also mean the market will start asking stricter questions.
Previously, when regulation was uncertain, XRP's poor performance could be explained as policy suppression; after institutional entry increases, the market will care more about real demand: how much cross-border payment must use XRP? When financial institutions use related infrastructure, do they need to continuously buy and hold tokens? After trading volume expands, where exactly does the value settle?
ETFs can make a story easier to trade but cannot fulfill the story.
This is the biggest difference between XRP and BTC.
BTC only needs to be held long-term by more and more people for scarcity logic to strengthen. XRP focuses on payments and settlements; if real financial business grows but does not generate token demand, the market will sooner or later question the relationship between technology adoption and token value.
But XRP also has an advantage that other altcoins find hard to replicate: its story is understandable to traditional finance.
Slow cross-border settlement speed, high costs, and fragmented liquidity are not problems created by the crypto world but long-standing issues in the global financial system. XRP does not need to convince banks to believe in Meme and DeFi; it only needs to prove that digital assets can improve capital turnover efficiency.
This is also why its market cap is hard to disappear completely over the long term.
Many projects need to constantly create new concepts; XRP only needs to wait for an old problem to become increasingly unbearable.
After the ETF, XRP's short-term price may continue to be driven by news and capital flow, but long-term valuation will increasingly depend on settlement scale, liquidity usage, and real business demand.
If these data appear, the market may for the first time no longer treat XRP merely as a "regulatory concept coin"; if the data never catch up, the ETF may only provide existing holders with a more convenient trading channel.
Therefore, the ETF is not the end of the XRP story but more like the bell signaling the start of a defense.
In the past, it had to prove it could legally stay at the table; now it has to prove that the global financial system really needs this card. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 ｜BTC I remain bearish!
Around 63,700, I temporarily do not consider it a true support.
The biggest issue in the market now is not whether there is a rebound, but whether the rebound has enough incremental funds to take over. If the volume can't keep up, the longer it grinds around 63,700, the easier the support will be consumed.
Many people start talking about "digital gold" and the "21 million cap" for the long-term narrative again, but trading focuses on the present.
The narrative can hold long-term, but the price can still decline in phases.
Especially with macro data windows like CPI and PPI approaching, volatility can easily be amplified. For me, before the trend truly reverses, rebounds are more about looking for short opportunities rather than rushing to bottom-fish at the sight of a single bullish candle.
So my script remains unchanged for now:
If 63,700 doesn't hold → continue to expect weakness;
If the rebound lacks volume → continue to look for shorts;
If there is a real volume breakout above key resistance → I will admit my mistake and stop loss.
Shorting is not a belief; stop loss is the bottom line.
Don't fall in love with your position; admit when the market is wrong.
$BTC, at this stage, I remain bearish. 🐻
Just recording personal trading views, not investment advice.#40 billion ONE abnormal minting, Harmony considers rollback
Brothers, the reason for this morning's waterfall might have been found!
Harmony is suspected to have been attacked by an attacker who minted about 4 billion ONE unauthorized through empty blocks, accounting for about 26% of the supply. Even more outrageous, about 2.8 billion of these quickly flowed to exchanges and faced massive sell-offs.
So the sudden surge in volume and price drop of ONE this morning might not be a normal correction at all, but a huge amount of newly minted tokens dumped directly into the market.
But what really deserves attention now is not how much more ONE can fall, but how Harmony will handle this next.
If the abnormal minting is confirmed, should the project team roll back?
Those in favor of rollback would say: This is abnormal assets created by attackers, why should normal holders pay the price?
Opponents would say: The greatest value of blockchain is immutability; if something goes wrong and you roll back, how is that different from a traditional database?
More importantly, about 2.8 billion ONE have already flowed to exchanges; freezing, recovering, or rolling back could each impact market trust.
If you hold ONE, would you choose to keep holding and wait for the official result, or run first to be safe?
This time, the real victim might not only be Harmony, but the entire market's trust in on-chain rules.#黄金维持高位，机构年末仍看涨
Gold remains at a high level, and institutions are still bullish by the end of the year.
Gold continues to hold steady at high levels, with multiple overseas institutions updating their year-end target prices. They generally expect gold prices to continue rising in Q4, driven mainly by geopolitical risks combined with easing inflation.
Logic supporting gold price increases:
1. U.S. CPI cools down, easing expectations of rate hikes, relieving upward pressure on real interest rates, and restoring the appeal of the interest-free asset gold.
2. Geopolitical tensions remain high, global central banks continue to purchase gold, and safe-haven buying supports the bottom, with funds ready to buy on dips.
3. Institutions generally predict that gold will continue to rise as long as interest rates have peaked, even without an official rate cut.
Caution against blind optimism:
1. Institutional bullishness is scenario-based, not a guaranteed outcome. If the economy unexpectedly heats up again, rate hike expectations will return, causing a rapid pullback in gold prices. Significant corrections can occur even during a bull market.
2. Pay attention to one phenomenon: gold is strong, but Bitcoin has not strengthened in tandem. Currently, funds prioritize safe-haven assets, and risk assets have not directly benefited, showing a clear divergence.
3. In a risk-off market, funds seek certainty, which may divert incremental capital away from the crypto market.
Personal view: a gold bull market indicates changes in the macro environment, but rising gold prices do not equal a direct surge in the crypto space.
Gold reflects risk aversion and interest rate expectations; Bitcoin is more influenced by risk appetite, ETF funds, and market buying.
In practice, use gold as a macro indicator for reference only; do not directly trade BTC based on gold price movements. Only when gold rises alongside a simultaneous recovery in risk appetite will the crypto market truly benefit.Easing hike bets are not translating into broad crypto demand. BTC near $63.7K is down modestly, while ETH and SOL are slightly weaker, a pattern that points to caution rather than a clean risk-on rotation.
With attention split across AI infrastructure earnings, Korean chips and gold, crypto lacks a dominant macro catalyst. My bias is defensive in the near term: BTC may retain relative strength, but the backdrop does not yet support chasing higher-beta assets.
Not advice, just analysis.Elon Musk's Leveraged Position Bet on the Myth Reveals the Essence of Market Structure in a Liquidation Crisis With Musk's Mars project and Tesla's success already priced in, it is clear from the original document under what conditions leveraged funds invested in expecting further increases can survive. The author sets the SPCX, ETH, and SNDK positions at liquidation prices around $92, and is currently recording an unrealized loss of $210,000 from $107. After two consecutive months of losses, he continuously borrowed to replenish margins, even using bank loans and his parents' retirement funds. Currently, additional funding is not possible, and the company faces liquidation risks. The survival condition for this position is that the price stays above $92, meaning there is no room for a decline of about 14% compared to the current price. The structural implications of this case for the market are read in three layers. First, the very phenomenon of belief in Musk's personal myth being traded as an asset class is already overheatedU.S. Crypto Regulation Is Taking a New Turn
The biggest crypto regulatory story right now may not be Congress it may be the SEC.
The Senate has pushed the CLARITY Act discussion into September, leaving the market waiting for legislative clarity. At the same time, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is moving forward with a proposed crypto rulemaking framework, with an August 14 vote scheduled on whether to formally propose it. (Coinspot)
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Market Quick Report
Bitcoin current price is $63,674.70, down 0.61% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 1.85 percentage points, indicating considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $64,496.90, the low was $63,309.40, with a trading volume of $225.18M, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the entire market, 42 assets rose while 60 fell, with rising assets accounting for 41.2%, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
Focus on the oracle/middleware sector with $LINK, trading volume is relatively small; first observe if smart money makes a move.
Focus on the privacy coin sector with $XMR, volatility has narrowed; wait for directional choice before acting.
Top three gainers are $XDELL +11.75%, $XSPCX +9.50%, and $VIRTUAL +7.09%; smart money has already placed their bets.
Top three losers are $MMT -16.43%, $KAITO -14.81%, and $BABY -12.88%; profit-taking traders have abruptly exited.
Judgment: The number of rising and falling assets sets the tone; the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; do not act contrary to smart money.
Public market data provided does not constitute investment advice; make your own judgments.
That's all for now; manage your entry and exit on your own.Binance not listing OKB is the most abstract performance art of 2026.
Binance's trashy mindset will sooner or later be swallowed up and acquired by OKX. @OKX中文
The world's largest exchange.
Daily trading volume crushes everything.
Listing speed faster than a rocket.
Any random dog coin, any meme, any project that can't even clearly write a whitepaper, they still dare to list.
But OKB?
No way.
Absolutely not.
This operation is no longer "selective listing," it's a carefully designed awkward performance.
When users want to buy OKB on Binance, the system politely tells you:
"Dear, we don't have this for now, we suggest you check the competitor."
Then silently watches your funds, your fees, your loyalty all drift over to OKX.
What a grand mindset.
They built a super mall but posted a notice saying: "We don't sell the neighbor supermarket's cola, please go there yourself."
Even more amazing, Binance educates the market every day:
"Platform tokens shouldn't be judged only by short-term price changes, but by ecosystem, burn, and real demand."
Yet their own BNB is worshiped as faith, while the competitor's OKB isn't even listed spot.
Afraid that users will compare and realize the "platform token" track isn't just one player running.
What are they afraid of?
Afraid OKB's trading volume looks too good on their platform?
Afraid users discover the scarcity narrative of the 21 million hard cap is quite appealing?
Afraid someone looks at the K-line and suddenly asks: "Why are BNB and OKB both appearing on the same exchange?"
The true king lets the competitor's coin circulate on their turf, then uses depth and experience to keep users.
Not like a petty gatekeeper, stubbornly guarding the door saying: "We don't accept this brand's goods."
Binance's current stance is clear:
I can tolerate the entire crypto world,
but I can't tolerate a platform token that directly competes.
This isn't confidence.
This is using the largest scale to perform the smallest mindset.
Keep not listing it.
At least it leaves the market a permanent joke:
The world's largest exchange is actually most afraid of a competitor's card.Corporate Bitcoin Is Moving From the Balance Sheet to the Income Statement
Holding digital assets has always created balance-sheet exposure.
Now it's increasingly affecting earnings as well.
Trump Media's latest quarterly results included substantial unrealized losses tied to digital assets, staked assets and equity investments, highlighting how crypto volatility can directly influence reported financial performance.
This isn't unique to one company.
As more corporations allocate capital to Bitcoin and other digital assets, investors will increasingly evaluate treasury strategy alongside operating performance.
Questions around accounting treatment, unrealized gains and losses, liquidity management and capital allocation are becoming part of mainstream equity analysis.
That's an important shift.
Corporate crypto adoption is no longer just about accumulating Bitcoin.
It's about managing digital assets responsibly within public markets.
The more widespread corporate adoption becomes, the more treasury decisions may influence quarterly earnings, valuation multiples and shareholder expectations.
Crypto is gradually becoming another component of corporate finance.
And investors will analyze it the same way they evaluate every other capital allocation decision.
Do you think public companies should actively manage their crypto holdings—or simply hold them through market cycles?
Share your thoughts below 👇 #TrumpTruthAPILawsuit #TrumpMediaCryptoLosses The most critical thing about SNDK today is not how much it rises, but whether the management dares to say this👇
"How long can AI storage demand continue?"
Yesterday, SNDK suddenly surged about 8%, and the market got excited again.
But I actually think today's Investor Day is the real test.
Because the last financial report was actually very contradictory:
📈 Quarterly revenue about $8.97 billion
📈 AI/data center demand remains very strong
📈 Long-term customer orders continue to increase
But why didn't the market directly buy in?
Because the market's real concern is not whether SNDK is currently profitable.
It's:
How long can this ultra-high profit margin be maintained?
This is the biggest valuation disagreement about SNDK right now.
If the management can prove today:
AI data center demand for NAND/Flash is still expanding;
Prices and profit margins of high-end storage products can be maintained;
Order visibility for the next few quarters remains very high;
Then the current market valuation of SNDK may need to be recalculated.
But if management starts to emphasize:
"Cycle peak"
"Price pressure"
"Profit margin normalization"
"Demand growth slowdown"
Then it's a completely different story.
So today I won't just focus on the stock price.
What I most want to hear from management is one question:
Is the money SNDK is making now "excess profits at the cycle peak," or the "new normal after storage demand restructuring in the AI era?"
These two answers correspond to completely different valuation worlds.
Interestingly, after SNDK's significant pullback from the high, the market has clearly split into two camps:
🟢 Bulls: AI storage demand is just beginning
🔴 Bears: The market has already priced in too much of the future
So today I won't call for bulls or bears.
I want to see which side the market chooses to believe after listening to Investor Day.
What do you think?
👇
Is SNDK's current high profit margin a "cycle peak" or the "new normal in the AI era?"
I'm more interested in how the bears explain it.AI narratives were reignited today by earnings. CoreWeave surged 19%, Nebius skyrocketed 34%, Super Micro Computer +19%, IREN +10%—compute power leasing has become the hottest business.
CoreWeave's Q2 revenue hit $2.575 billion, up 112% year-over-year, and it raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance. The market is saying: don't worry about AI burning cash; demand is outpacing the burn.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) gave a strong FY27 Q1 guidance, directly up 19%; data center operators IREN and Applied Digital also strengthened. Cloud providers are revising capex upward, benefiting the entire compute power chain.
This "heavy asset + high leverage" compute power leasing model of CoreWeave—do you think it's the next AWS or the next WeWork?
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% What truly makes OKB worth watching is not the $85 price, but how much value it can hold after the 21 million supply cap.
Currently, OKB is around $85, still about 67% below OKX's all-time high of $258.6.
But revisiting OKB now, the focus is no longer on "whether it can become the next BNB."
After the economic model adjustment in 2025, OKB's total supply will be permanently fixed at 21 million tokens, while becoming the sole native Gas Token of the X Layer. In other words, it is transitioning from a traditional exchange platform token to capturing dual value from "exchange platform traffic + L2 on-chain economy."
What truly determines the next valuation round is not scarcity itself, but whether:
The X Layer can generate real transactions, users, TVL, and Gas demand.
The 21 million supply solves the supply issue, while ecosystem growth addresses the demand issue.
Therefore, the biggest focus for OKB now is not "how high the price can go," but:
Whether OKX can make more and more on-chain activities require the use of OKB.
If demand continues to expand, the fixed supply will truly create a value leverage; if ecosystem growth stagnates, even the rarest token will struggle to sustain valuation increases based solely on narrative. $OKB #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Market Trends: Divergence and Catalysts
Ethereum is gaining attention, with on-chain capital under the “fork bull market” concentrating bets on DeFi protocols with real revenue (such as Hyperliquid, Uniswap, etc.). Asset attributes are becoming increasingly distinct: Bitcoin is gradually "goldifying," while Ethereum and Solana resemble software company stocks, driven by different logics, leading to significantly divergent future trends.
The biggest catalyst lies on Wall Street
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch collectively manage about $20 trillion in assets. If their model portfolios include 1%-2% crypto allocation, it would bring sustained inflows worth hundreds of billions of dollars. On the macro level, the U.S. plans to borrow $600 billion in Q4, expanding the fiscal deficit, which overall benefits crypto and other risk assets. #Chip stocks lead the rally, South Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
Chip stocks have recently reclaimed the center stage, with Samsung and Hynix taking turns leading the gains. On the surface, it looks like a sentiment rebound, but the underlying logic is solid—AI has pulled storage demand back into an upward trajectory. That said, this rally shouldn't be judged solely by the bullish K-line charts; the key to how high it can go depends on whether orders can be fulfilled and if demand can truly support a new industrial cycle.
Let's first look at SK Hynix. The previous rally peaked at 1154, and now it has pulled back to hover around the 1100 level. In the short term, it has fallen below MA5 and MA13, and the MACD red bars have noticeably shrunk, indicating that after continuous gains, some capital has started to take profits. However, the overall structure hasn't deteriorated yet; the price still holds above the support zone formed by EMA144 and EMA169. To reactivate the upward momentum, it needs to firmly hold above the 1115-1125 short-term range; otherwise, it will likely continue to consolidate around 1100.
The logic behind this is consistent with SanDisk and Micron. The AI rally has long passed the "takeoff on concept alone" phase and has now officially entered the "industry fulfillment" elimination round. Earlier, capital frenzied over computing power and GPUs; now it is digging deeper into the segments that truly benefit—high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5 storage subdivisions have become the new focus of capital. However, fast gains do not mean only rises without falls; any sector that sprints continuously must face short-term pullbacks.
Shifting the perspective back to the macro level. Last night, the US July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, fully in line with expectations. Although it didn't bring a rate cut surprise, it at least ruled out the risk of rate hikes. Currently, CME data shows nearly a 60% probability of maintaining rates in September. The US tech sector sentiment is relatively stable, providing breathing room for the AI industry chain. For the crypto space, the macro environment not worsening is good news; marginal improvements in liquidity expectations have warmed BTC's risk appetite.
However, BTC is still in a typical "half-cooked" market. 63000 is short-term support, 65000 is strong resistance above, and neither side has a catalyst for a breakout. After the CPI data release, BTC only rose 0.3%, indicating the market truly desires a "rate cut" engine rather than the "no rate hike" placebo. If rate cut expectations further ferment and risk appetite continues to rise, BTC will have a chance to challenge resistance above 65000. But before clear signals emerge, the market will likely remain volatile; chasing gains carries more risk than opportunity, so timing is more important than blindly guessing direction.
How much further can this AI storage rally go? SK Hynix has leveraged its first-mover advantage in HBM, Micron has capacity replenishment and NAND flexibility, and SanDisk is a flexible play purely in the NAND cycle—which card do you favor? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
(Market views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto and chip sectors are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously.)
$SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH One thing many people find most puzzling right now: earlier market trading led to the idea that the Fed might continue raising interest rates, with BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets collectively crashing valuations. Now, July CPI has been moderately delivered, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from about 54% before the data release to around 40%. By the simplest logic, as negative news weakens, shouldn't the assets that have fallen the hardest should be the first to recover? (reuters.com) But the market did not move that way. The reason is: the disappearance of negative news only means "fewer reasons to sell," not "the money you bought has returned." These are two completely different sets of funding logic. The previous round of declines was indeed influenced by rising expectations of rate hikes, but macro news acted more like triggers. What truly amplified the decline were the large amount of profit-taking positions, leveraged positions, and risk exposure to overvalued assets accumulated earlier. Once risk appetite weakens, the first thing money usually does is not to judge whether the long-term story has changed, but to: reduce positions→ reduce leverage → lock in profits→ increase cash ratios. After these positions are sold, they won't automatically buy back the way they came, just because a CPI meets expectations. This is also why BTC is currently acting so "awkward"—it is currently around $63,600, and intraday it is still trading between $63,267 and $64,298. The macro environment is now more favorable than a few days ago, but a breakout near 65,000 remains difficult. This illustrates the current market problem that has shifted from: "Will the Fed become more hawkish?" Gradually switch to: "Who."Main reasons for OKB's strength: deflationary model reshaping, X Layer ecosystem closed loop, and fundamental revaluation brought by strategic cooperation with ICE; current valuation shows a significant gap compared to the platform's $25 billion valuation, with catch-up potential priced by the market.
Deflationary model reshaping: supply-side tightening
- Total supply locked and burned: a one-time burn of 65.25 million OKB, permanently locking total supply at 21 million, and removal of smart contract minting function, establishing a deflationary model.
- Dual-chain integration: discontinuation of OKT Chain, with OKT exchanged for OKB at a 1:9.5 ratio, achieving ecosystem and value unification, reducing competition and strengthening OKB's core position.
- Buyback and burn: continuation of quarterly buyback and burn mechanism, continuously recovering OKB from circulation to enhance long-term scarcity.
Ecosystem closed loop: X Layer + Exchange OS driving demand
- X Layer positioning: established as OKX's sole core public chain, based on ZK technology, compatible with Ethereum, targeting about 5000 TPS.
- Exchange OS staking: developers building trading markets must stake OKB, generating new locking and demand.
- Ecosystem linkage: forming a "exchange-wallet-payment-public chain" flywheel with OKX Wallet, OKX Pay, and the public chain, driving OKB usage in fees, staking, voting, and other scenarios.
- External scenarios: OKB expands globally to about 80 application scenarios, covering payments, lending, wealth management, lifestyle services, etc., forming external value support.
Fundamental revaluation: strategic cooperation with ICE
- Investment and valuation: ICE, parent company of NYSE, invests in OKX, valuing the platform at $25 billion, significantly higher than OKB's fully diluted market cap, bringing revaluation potential.
- Products and channels: ICE plans to launch US-regulated crypto futures using OKX spot prices; OKX intends to provide its users compliant access to ICE US futures and NYSE tokenized stocks.
- Institutional endorsement: strategic cooperation enhances brand and compliance image, boosting confidence among institutions and users.
Catch-up potential: valuation gap and platform strength
- Valuation gap: OKB's fully diluted market cap is an order of magnitude lower than the platform's $25 billion valuation, with catch-up logic priced by the market.
- Platform strength: OKX reserves about $26 billion, over 120 million users, and 24-hour trading volume exceeding $10 billion, providing strong fundamental support for OKB.
- Fees and security: competitive trading fees, implementation of 1:1 reserve proof since 2023, and establishment of a $10 billion protection fund, enhancing security and transparency.
Technical and trading reference
- Price and momentum: price around $95.95 on August 12, approaching the $100 mark; approximately 107.46% increase over the past year, about 21.64% increase in the last 30 days, showing strong momentum.
- Risk warning: RSI around 75.04, in overbought territory, short-term correction pressure possible. $OKB Brothers in the crypto world share a common experience: no matter how much money is in the account, it always ends up fully invested. Knowing it's more flexible to keep some ammunition, knowing it's more cost-effective to add when it drops, knowing it's fully invested and just hoping it rises with no room to move. But they just can't hold onto their positions. Every time I open a position, I put all the money I can use into it. Why is that? You know the market will fall. There are rises and falls—this is the most basic common sense in financial markets, and everyone understands it. But in reality, this common sense fails. When the market is rising, emotions are activated, and everyone is discussing how much more it can rise—the knowledge that "the market will fall" is still in your head, but its voice has become very quiet. Another voice was even louder: This time prices will keep rising. I have to seize this opportunity—I can't afford to miss out. This isn't your IQ problem; it's a common response of the human brain when emotionally activated. Staying awake in moments of greed violates the default settings of the human nervous system. The real reason for being fully invested is not to judge that the market will keep rising. Being fully invested doesn't require a decision. If you choose to enter a 70% position, you make an active judgment—I think now is not the time to go all in, so I keep 30% and wait for the right opportunity. This judgment carries risks. If the price rises directly and the 30% is missed, that's a misjudgment. But full positions are different. A full position means "I've gone in everything, now let's watch the market." Without proactive judgment, there is no initiativeAs of 17:00 on August 13, 2026 (Beijing time), BTC is quoted at $63,465, down 0.7% in 24 hours and down 1.8% over seven days; ETH is at $1,881, up slightly by 0.45% in 24 hours; SOL is at $75.2, DOGE at $0.071. The Fear and Greed Index is 27, indicating the market is still in the fear zone. The market is quiet, but there are more interesting things hidden in the derivatives positions.
Looking at Binance's hourly liquidation samples, the liquidation structures of $BTC and ETH show completely different characteristics. ETH has experienced single-hour long liquidations of $5.359 million and single-hour short liquidations of $5.722 million, with heavy liquidations on both sides; in BTC's samples, single-hour long liquidations reached $4.303 million, while short liquidations were only $1.102 million, clearly showing a one-sided hit. This data indicates that ETH's short-term funds have heavily leveraged both long and short positions, whereas BTC's liquidations resemble directional confirmation after a trend emerges—once the price breaks a key level, those betting on the wrong side are wiped out cleanly and decisively.
Why this difference? BTC's current position structure is dominated by institutional and ETF funds, who either participate or not, and generally avoid two-way betting. On August 12, the total market liquidations were $187 million, with longs at $122 million and shorts at $64 million, nearly 79,000 people liquidated. BTC's funding rate was 0.0066%, with a long-short ratio of 1.85; longs are crowded but directionally consistent—longs get liquidated when prices fall, shorts when prices rise, and liquidations generally follow the trend. ETH is different; its trading funds are more aggressive, with one group betting on a catch-up rally and another betting on a rebound failure. Both sides leverage simultaneously, so when the price moves slightly, one side gets liquidated first, then the other side follows. On Binance, ETHUSDT's long-short ratio has reached 71.4% to 28.6%, with longs extremely crowded, but in the past 24 hours, $25.13 million of ETH liquidations were 70% long—crowded longs are repeatedly harvested, and shorts haven't gained an advantage either.
The macro background provides a stage for this game. The US July CPI released on August 12 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June, meeting expectations. The market neither got excited nor panicked, with BTC stuck in a range between $62,000 and $66,000. Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire slightly boosted risk appetite, but the real variable is the PPI at 20:30 tonight. This dilemma environment is exactly what nurtures ETH's two-way squeeze play—without a trend, only mutual slaughter remains.
So the core contradiction is clear now: BTC liquidations tell you where the trend is, ETH liquidations tell you how chaotic the sentiment is. ETH has multiple moving averages supporting it between $1,850 and $1,880, and the 100-day moving average at $1,922 has not been breached since July 26. Both sides repeatedly liquidate in a very narrow range, indicating no consensus expectation for ETH in the market. But leverage won't stay piled up on both sides forever; once the PPI or funding conditions give a clear signal, ETH's squeezed positions will release in the same direction, likely causing much more violent volatility than BTC. BTC will first test if $63,000 can hold; if not, look to $62,000. $ETH watches $1,850 and $1,922—whichever breaks first, the liquidations on that side will fuel the next wave of the market.🌐 THE MARKET MOVES ON MACRO — BUT CRYPTO GROWS UNDERNEATH THE NOISE
Short-term crypto price action is often dominated by the same forces:
🏦 Fed expectations — Rate-cut or rate-hike bets can quickly change liquidity conditions.
💰 ETF flows — Persistent inflows or outflows can influence institutional positioning and market sentiment.
📊 Inflation data — CPI, PPI and labor-market reports can trigger sharp repricing across risk assets.
🏛️ Institutional demand — More capital entering through funds, treasuries and financial products can reshape market structure.
But there’s another layer that receives far less attention.
The underlying network economy.
While traders react to every candle, on-chain activity continues developing:
🔹 More wallets and users interacting with protocols
🔹 Developers building applications and infrastructure
🔹 Stablecoin liquidity expanding across networks
🔹 DeFi and tokenized assets creating new use cases
🔹 Blockchain activity becoming increasingly integrated into financial markets
This is why short-term price and long-term adoption can tell completely different stories.
A market can be weak while its infrastructure continues improving.
Likewise, a token can rally aggressively without meaningful growth underneath it.
The important distinction is price momentum versus fundamental network growth.
Macro tells us where liquidity may move next.
ETF flows show where institutional capital is positioning.
But users, developers, transactions and real economic activity reveal whether the ecosystem is actually expanding.
📌 Watch both layers.
The market trades the narrative today.
Adoption determines whether the narrative survives tomorrow.
$BTC $ETH $OKB $APR $SOL
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#DailyOrbit
#AIInfraEarningsWatch 🚨 Is Bitcoin’s Bear-Market Bottom Starting to Take Shape?
The $BTC chart may be pointing toward a major support zone around $54K.
Several independent signals are lining up around the same area:
📉 Technical structure:
A 4H rounded-top breakdown and the daily bear-flag structure both project toward the $54K region after BTC lost the $60K level.
📊 On-chain metrics:
Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $53K–$54K, while the 1.0x MVRV level is also close to this zone. Miner production costs around $55K–$56K add another layer of potential support.
🏦 Institutional expectations:
Several market researchers have identified the low-$50Ks as an important downside area, although some more bearish scenarios place BTC closer to $40K–$46K.
🌎 Macro backdrop:
With expectations for further Fed tightening cooling, the macro environment could gradually become less hostile toward risk assets. If the tightening cycle is truly nearing its end, Bitcoin’s bottoming process could strengthen.
The key takeaway isn’t that $54K is guaranteed.
Rather, multiple technical, on-chain, and fundamental indicators are converging around this level, making it an area worth watching closely.
BTC has already experienced a much smaller drawdown than previous major bear markets, while ETFs and institutional demand have changed the market structure.
If $BTC eventually reaches the $54K region, the question may not simply be “How bad is this?”
It could become:
“Is this where long-term buyers start paying attention?” 👀
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI More and more signs are starting to feel like the latter half of a bear market.
The proportion of short-term BTC holders continues to decline, a phenomenon that has appeared in the late stages of past bear markets.
There are fewer short-term traders, new funds are inactive, and market attention is decreasing; meanwhile, chips are gradually settling into the hands of long-term holders.
The hardest phase of a bear market is often not the daily big drops.
But rather when the price falls so much that even the number of people discussing it dwindles.
The next step is when the proportion of short-term holders rises again from a low point.
That will indicate that new participants and new demand are starting to enter the market again. Last night the CPI was released, but BTC didn't rise and instead fell? Here's some personal thoughts from a newbie
Brothers, last night the US July CPI came out: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%, month-on-month 0.1%, all exactly as expected, not a bit off.
Logically, with inflation down, the rate hike expectations should cool off, and risk assets should rise, right? But BTC instead surged to 64400 then fell back, now hovering around 64000. Gold, on the other hand, broke through 4400 and rose quite well. I'm just puzzled why Bitcoin isn't following.
My own guess is that "meeting expectations" means "no surprise," and the market had already priced in the expectations. Also, although inflation dropped a bit, it's still far from the Fed's 2% target. Housing costs are still rising, energy prices are still high year-on-year, so inflation stickiness feels quite strong.
As for the Fed, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, but there's still a 40% chance of a rate hike. Pausing rate hikes is not the same as cutting rates; it doesn't feel like true easing yet. Even Goldman Sachs says rates might not be cut until 2026, which is headache-inducing.
Another thing: short-term US Treasury yields have fallen, but long-term yields remain quite high. With such a large fiscal deficit, long-term rates can't come down, which still pressures risk assets.
Tonight there's also PPI data to be released, with market expectations at 4.9%. If it's also low, that could be positive; if it exceeds expectations, the chance of rate hikes returns. I think this is even more critical than CPI.
To sum up my personal view: in the short term, BTC may still mainly fluctuate. I won't rush to heavily invest; I'll wait to see tonight's PPI first. After all, I'm a newbie, and all the above is just my personal guess, not necessarily correct, so please be gentle. Welcome to discuss in the comments; I want to learn too.
$BTC $ETH $OKB #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
Elon Musk's 30-minute all-hands meeting completely rewrote the valuation script for SpaceX (SPCX).
Previously, SpaceX was valued based on "rockets + Starlink," but after the August 11 meeting, it shifted to being valued as an "AI computing power company." Musk's exact words were sharp: "It's not a maybe, it's certain — AI revenue will surpass all other businesses combined by September, significantly exceed them in Q4; in four to five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value, leaving rockets and Starlink with just 1%."
The market immediately believed half of it. SPCX rose from a low of 104.83 on August 3 to close at 146.15 on August 12, a roughly 40% increase over five days, touching 149.6 intraday. But on the 11th itself, it actually opened high and closed lower at 133.29, down 3.93% — indicating investors were excited about the "500 billion revenue" but also wary of the 45 billion annual capital expenditure.
Why is this story both credible and frightening? Look at Q2 numbers: total revenue 7.814 billion, AI business 2.56 billion (up 247% YoY, 213% QoQ), Starlink 4.291 billion, launches 962 million. AI isn't the largest yet but has the steepest growth curve. Musk's target for the end of next year is 10 gigawatts of computing power (currently 1.4 GW), which, at $30-50 per watt, implies annual revenue of $300-500 billion. For comparison, Nvidia's total revenue last year was only 60 billion. This means a not-yet-fully-commercialized business is expected to grow to 8 times Nvidia's size in five years — not just growth, but a species change.
The architecture is also connected: on the ground, Terafab (Texas-based chip factory + Tesla collaboration) trains Grok; in space, Starmind satellites perform inference; Starlink acts as the transmission pipeline; Starship is responsible for launching payloads. Grok 4.6 arrives this week, 4.7 in three weeks, Grok 5, trained on all SpaceX engineering data, will launch by year-end; the $60 billion stock acquisition of Cursor is confirmed; Morgan Stanley has started revaluing the AI business from $12 per share, with a bull market scenario valuing SPCX at $600.
But when this story reaches the BTC community, it needs to be analyzed on two levels:
Short term — SpaceX is pushing AI infrastructure capital expenditure to the 45 billion annual level, igniting risk appetite in tech stocks. BTC, as a high-beta asset, follows tech sentiment; last night, when the Nasdaq was up, BTC was up too. The logic is "AI burns cash → fiat credit continues to be printed to feed computing power → non-sovereign assets benefit."
Medium term — the deeper narrative is: 10 GW computing power, 500 billion revenue target, 45 billion annual Capex — each number represents ongoing consumption of US dollar credit. Every expansion of AI infrastructure adds to the market's perception that "fiat purchasing power is being diluted," strengthening BTC's story as a "non-sovereign hard cap." Rockets are tools, Starlink is the pipeline, AI is the destination, and BTC is the external beneficiary of this fiat consumption chain.
But don't get carried away. A story that can drive the stock price up doesn't mean it can deliver the results. Q2 AI revenue was 2.6 billion, 192 times less than 500 billion; 10 GW must grow 7 times from 1.4 GW in 16 months, with hard constraints on power, chips, cooling, and launch windows; SpaceX's quarterly Capex is 18.4 billion, and GAAP is still in the red. Morgan Stanley's $300-600 target is a three-year discounted valuation, not next month's cash flow.
So with SPCX at 146, my short position is still deeply underwater (-1925% kind of underwater), not because I don't believe in AI, but because I don't believe 500 billion will emerge from a single all-hands meeting. I'll wait until September when AI revenue truly surpasses Starlink, until the 10 GW power agreements are in place, until Cursor delivery is complete and Grok 5 benchmarked — then I'll decide if the story has turned into financials. At this price, 99% is narrative, 1% is rockets, and I choose to wait for the numbers in that 1% to speak.
Stories can drive prices, but they can't be eaten.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH The real bullish logic for crude oil is shifting from "war expectations" to a "real supply gap".
Currently, international crude oil supply continues to tighten, and oil prices have climbed back above $80.
▪️ Brent crude: approximately $88.5–88.9 per barrel
▪️ Binance WTI crude: $81.32 per barrel
The latest monthly report from the IEA sends a very clear signal: global oil supply is contracting faster than the market previously expected.
Several data points are worth viewing together:
▪️ Global oil supply is expected to decrease by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026
▪️ Last month's forecast was a decrease of 3.7 million barrels per day
▪️ Global supply is expected to be 1.27 million barrels per day below demand
▪️ The previously expected gap was only 860,000 barrels per day
▪️ The supply gap in Q3 is expected to reach 1.8 million barrels per day
▪️ Global observable oil inventories decreased by 69 million barrels in July
The most critical factor is Middle East exports.
Middle East oil shipments briefly recovered to about 20 million barrels per day in early July,
but by late July, they quickly dropped to 12 million barrels per day, a daily export shortfall of about 8 million barrels.
The core reasons behind this remain restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing security threats to Middle East infrastructure and tankers, and uncertainties along the Red Sea route.
Currently, about 8.3 million barrels per day of production in the Gulf region have not been restored.
In other words: the crude oil market is moving from "concern over supply disruptions" to "supply has indeed not returned."
This also means the market has not fully priced in the decline in Middle East exports and the global supply gap, but there is still some room before extreme panic sets in.
If Middle East shipment volumes remain near 12 million barrels per day in the coming weeks and inventories continue to decline, WTI could further seek a new balance around $85 or even higher.
The current crude oil market essentially involves a direct clash between two forces:
Supply side: export obstacles, production declines, rapid inventory depletion.
Demand side: high oil prices suppress consumption, and global demand is continuously revised downward.
In the short term, the speed of supply contraction clearly outpaces demand decline, so there is still support below the oil price.
The real determinants of the next round of direction are two questions:
First, can the Strait of Hormuz restore stable passage?
Second, can Middle East exports return to near 20 million barrels per day?
If shipment volumes remain low for a long time and inventories continue to fall, this will no longer be a short-term geopolitical event but a real, sustained global supply gap.
Conversely, if the Strait of Hormuz restores stable passage, Middle East production and exports quickly rebound, and global demand continues to weaken, there could be a significant pullback above $80.
Data source: IEA August 2026 Oil Market ReportOnce a dominant force in the NFT space, the "Machi Big Brother" is now facing the most awkward moment of his career: to preserve his long ETH positions on Hyperliquid or other platforms, he is willing to sacrifice his beloved Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC).
* Glory of the Past: Three years ago, Big Brother spent 34.17 ETH (about $64,000 at the time) to buy BAYC #5715. At that time, he was the absolute faith of the NFT world.
* Last night, the transaction price was only 8.3 ETH (about $15,600).
* Lost 75% on the ETH standard, and even worse on the US dollar standard, losing everything. The worst part is, he only withdrew 1,540 USDC from the exchange—a small amount that, for a former whale, was like "loose change" buying a pack of cigarettes at a convenience store, indirectly showing that the big brother's cash flow is indeed extremely tight now.
The reason the big brother was so humble and willing to cut losses was to keep his 2,800 ETH (about $5.3 million) long position.
* Clearing price: $1,863.08
* Current market conditions: Based on the data just now, ETH is hovering around $1,896.
* Harsh truth: Big brother is less than $33 away from being "swept away in one wave." This means that as long as ETH is a little bit,#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
$SPCX small rocket 🚀 surged nearly 10%, pushing all the way to the 150 resistance level. The core driver was Musk's aggressive expectations for AI business (forecasting AI revenue to surpass all aerospace business by September; targeting 10GW computing power by the end of next year, proposing that AI will account for the vast majority of the company's value in the future. The market is repricing its AI computing power story, with funds rapidly flowing in.)
Combined with the digestion of unlocking negative factors and short covering. This is an emotion-driven rebound, not equivalent to a mid-to-long-term trend reversal.
Key points to watch going forward: AI-related order implementation, selling pressure from unlocking on August 20, and Starship test flight progress.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 Fundamental Research Report $GMX / GMX (DeFi) $3.20
Overview: GMX ($GMX) composite score 47/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project perspective: GMX (token $GMX), in the DeFi sector. Focuses on Arbitrum perpetual DEX. Competitors include DYDX and SNX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with users lacking data ownership. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction size is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found; 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: monthly active addresses (MAU) not disclosed, daily active users (DAU) not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized with no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token details: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap: GMX $3.00B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. FDV: GMX $4.20B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Annual revenue: GMX $2.00M, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: GMX undisclosed, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects.
Summary: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 47/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlocks causing price dumps, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviations over 30% require reassessment.
That's all, please judge independently.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit 🇺🇸 US Crypto Regulation Update: Congress Stalls, SEC Steps Forward
The long-awaited CLARITY Act has hit another roadblock.
Although the bill passed the House and cleared committee, the full Senate vote was postponed on August 6 and is now expected to be revisited on September 15. The market’s estimated probability of passage this year has also fallen sharply, from around 82% to just 21%.
With Congress moving slowly, the SEC is taking a more active role.
SEC Chair Atkins is pushing a new regulatory approach that would shift the agency away from relying mainly on enforcement and toward providing clearer rules, exemptions, and pathways for crypto businesses to operate compliantly.
But there’s an important catch: the August 14 action was only about whether to seek public comments. Actual implementation could still be years away, potentially not arriving until 2027.
So the immediate market impact may remain limited, but the bigger message is important: regulatory clarity could increasingly come from the executive branch even while Congress remains stuck.
From a market perspective, this could favor $BTC more than many altcoins.
Bitcoin already has a relatively clear regulatory identity, while numerous altcoins still face uncertainty around securities classification and potential enforcement.
The short-term picture is uncertain, but the long-term regulatory direction is becoming increasingly important for crypto.
$BTC $ETH
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI 🔥 这一次，市场真正关注的已经不只是BTC涨跌，而是美国监管框架到底会走向哪里。 目前，美国加密监管出现了一个非常值得关注的分化： SEC正在主动推进新的加密资产规则，而CLARITY Act却被推迟到9月。 最新消息显示，SEC计划在 8月14日 讨论针对部分加密资产发行活动的“定制化发行制度”，希望为特定数字资产提供更加明确的监管路径。与此同时，参议院对CLARITY Act的推进已经延后，市场目前关注的时间窗口指向 9月中旬。 这意味着： 监管不会因为国会暂时停滞就完全停止。 🟢 SEC主动推进，可能成为新的催化剂 如果SEC最终推出更适合加密行业的发行和披露规则，最大的变化可能不是短期价格，而是： 🏦 机构参与门槛下降 📑 Token发行规则更加明确 💰 合规资本更容易进入 🌐 美国加密项目的法律不确定性降低 事实上，SEC和CFTC在今年3月已经发布了针对部分加密资产及相关交易的解释，进一步区分数字商品、数字证券、稳定币等类别，并涉及质押、空投等活动。相关解释已于 3月23日生效。 这说明美国监管框架实际上已经开始逐步成形。 --- 🟠 但CLARITY ActBought at 1874, exited near 1899.
Reversed position at 1897, currently up by more than ten points again.
Many people think trading means holding all the way.
But what really matters is not how long you hold, but when to change your strategy.
This morning, my brother entered a position near 1874 as planned.
After gaining more than twenty points, I didn’t let him chase further.
Because at this level, chasing higher no longer offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
In the afternoon near 1897, I directly told my brother to start setting up a short position.
Looking back now, the price has returned to around 1885.
Caught a wave of the rise.
Didn’t miss the pullback either.
Many ask me:
Why do you reverse when others are still shouting to keep pushing?
Because I never focus on price moves.
I focus on levels.
Buy when it’s time to buy.
Exit when it’s time to exit.
Change direction decisively when it’s time to change direction.
Trading isn’t about who predicts the market best.
It’s about who adjusts faster and executes more decisively.
So I always tell my brothers:
The real gap isn’t about how big a single trade is, but knowing what to do next every time the market moves.
Opportunities come every day.
But those who truly seize them are always the ones prepared in advance. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #Harmony推进链上回滚，铸币漏洞修复已激活 It's really unnecessary to obsess over CPI every day; in fact, the slowdown in inflation has long been evident in the answers.
The core issue is not the level of prices, but that the Federal Reserve simply doesn't dare to raise interest rates anymore. Housing costs have directly shrunk, instantly draining the confidence to continue rate hikes. At this point, big money has already set the stage: short-term bond yields are falling all the way down, the gold market is staging a reversal drama accordingly, and even cryptocurrencies are quietly maneuvering to firmly hold the consolidation range.
Everyone is waiting for production-side data, but this is actually just a smokescreen. Interest rates have been high-pressure for so long that consumption capacity has long been overdrawn. Even if corporate costs fluctuate, they can't easily pass them on to ordinary people. Frankly, the current market is just capital frantically looking for an exit. Rather than guessing policies, understanding the rhythm of asset rotation and following liquidity is what truly smart people do.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
$XAUT $BTC Can $OKB hold at 100 USD? Most likely it will be tested repeatedly,
Does it feel a bit bullish? No, no, no, it's still a bear market now, but 100$ is just the beginning!
Once the US stock market is on-chain, real funds are on-chain, and trading gains depth, if it can rank among the top L2s, then it will be fun. Under the sky horse's wild imagination, how high do you think the bull market OKB will reach? #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Elon Musk says AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value in the future, but the real highlight is not just one sentence
Musk recently revealed to SpaceX employees that AI business could account for 99% of SpaceX's total value in the next 5 years. Meanwhile, SpaceX is massively expanding its AI computing infrastructure and plans to increase AI computing power to 10GW by 2027. 
This statement is actually very critical.
Because it means the market's valuation logic for SpaceX is changing:
Previously, it was about rockets and Starlink,
Now it’s about AI.
SpaceX has already completed the acquisition of xAI this year, and the strategic direction after the merger is very clear—integrating AI models, computing power, satellite communications, and space infrastructure. SpaceX’s listing documents have also explicitly listed AI as one of the company’s core business pillars. 
Why might AI become SpaceX’s largest source of value?
Because what SpaceX really wants to do may not be simply "to build a Grok."
But to create a complete AI infrastructure:
Chips → Data centers → Computing power → Grok → Starlink → Space data centers.
This is also why Musk has consistently emphasized extending AI computing power into space.
If AI computing demand continues to explode in the future, then SpaceX’s Starlink network, launch capabilities, power, and data center construction capabilities could all become assets that differentiate it from traditional AI companies.
But there is also a huge risk here
99% is a judgment about the future, not today’s profit contribution.
Currently, SpaceX’s core revenue still comes from connection services like Starlink. Recent financial reports show that connection services generated about $4.29 billion in revenue in Q2 and remain the company’s main source of income. Meanwhile, the company is making huge capital investments in AI infrastructure and other projects. 
So what the market is trading on now is:
"Will SpaceX become an AI infrastructure giant in the future?"
Not:
"Is SpaceX already an AI company today?"
The difference between these two is huge.
What does this mean for the AI industry chain?
If SpaceX really develops in this direction, then the beneficiaries won’t be just SpaceX.
It will need:
GPU → Nvidia
High-speed networks → Network equipment manufacturers
Storage → SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron, etc.
Power → Power infrastructure
Data centers → AI infrastructure industry chain
So if SpaceX continues to increase AI capital expenditure, it is essentially increasing demand for the entire AI infrastructure industry chain.
This also explains why the market has been increasingly focused on AI financing, data centers, chips, storage, and power recently.
The AI story is shifting from "model competition" to "infrastructure competition."
In short:
The real signal Musk is sending this time is not that SpaceX will give up rockets, but that SpaceX’s valuation core may gradually shift from "a space company" to "AI + computing power + satellite network + space infrastructure platform."
But the 99% value share is a very aggressive long-term goal, and whether it can be realized ultimately depends on whether AI revenue, computing power utilization, and capital returns can truly materialize. $BTC #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 看了AI基建这财报，我就想笑：需求是真猛，败家也是真狠。 CoreWeave 订单攒了 1040 亿美元。 甲骨文压了 6000 多亿的单子。 超微电脑营收直接翻倍。结果呢？ CoreWeave 净亏 6 个亿，利息支出翻倍，典型的打肿脸充胖子，烧钱换面子。 但别光看他们亏 /AI 这帮人越是亏着钱抢电抢卡，越说明一件事：算力战争的标价权已经不在币圈手里了。 英伟达的卡、德州的电、数据中心的并网批复，全被 AI 云厂当战略物资囤。矿机用的 ASIC 跑不了大模型，可矿工手里的并网电力、变电站、机房壳子、冷却系统，恰恰是 AI 托管最缺的硬资产。AI 每兆瓦收益是挖矿的 3 到 25 倍，还能签 12 到 20 年长期合同；挖矿这边减半完块奖励砍半，hashprice 跌到 30 刀出头，上市矿企单枚 $BTC 现金成本 7.6 万到 8 万刀，市价还趴在下面，挖一枚亏一枚。 钱、电、硬件三层资源被 AI 一口口叼走，矿工不是旁观者，是被吸进去的那边——这才轮到币圈的事。 这对币圈有啥影响？别听那些专家扯犊子，就三点： 短期就是凑热闹。 英伟达一放屁，比特币就得跟着窜。AI 财报好，市场[Crypto Script]
#Chip stocks lead, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
I am Script Bro. The chip sector has once again become the focus of capital, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continuing to strengthen. The core logic behind this is still the storage demand driven by AI. However, Script Bro believes that this round of rally cannot be judged by sentiment alone; the real key is whether subsequent orders can be fulfilled and whether demand growth can support a new cycle in the storage industry.
From the market perspective, SK Hynix's recent performance is clearly stronger than most tech assets. After a rapid rebound from a low point, it peaked near 1154 and has currently pulled back to fluctuate around 1100. In the short term, the price has fallen below MA5 and MA13, and the MACD red bars have shortened and weakened, indicating that funds are starting to take profits after continuous gains. However, the overall structure has not been completely broken; the price still stands near the EMA144 and EMA169 support zones. If it can regain the 1115-1125 range, there is still a chance for a short-term rebound.
Actually, this logic is the same as what Script Bro has been discussing about SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix. The AI market has now moved from purely speculating on concepts to gradually focusing on industry fulfillment. Earlier, the market speculated on AI computing power; now capital is seeking the truly benefiting segments, and storage is a very important part of that. However, after any sector rises rapidly, short-term corrections must be watched for; it’s impossible to rise every day without falling.
Looking at the overall market, after last night’s CPI met expectations, the market’s expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have warmed up. The US tech sector performed relatively steadily, providing sentiment support for AI-related assets. For the crypto space, an improved macro environment also helps, with liquidity expectations rising and risk appetite recovering, giving BTC a chance to follow suit in recovery.
Currently, BTC remains in a consolidation phase. Short-term focus is on support near 63000 and resistance above 65000. If rate cut expectations continue to ferment and risk appetite rises, BTC may see a new breakout opportunity. But the market is not a one-way street now; chasing rallies still carries risks, and timing is more important than direction.
What do you all think? Can this AI storage rally continue? Among SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron, which one do you favor? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH — Midday Market Update 📊
BTC is back around $63.9K while ETH is approaching $1.9K, but this recovery still has two major questions behind it.
BTC has climbed steadily from roughly $63.35K to nearly $64K without much volatility. ETH has been stronger, moving from around $1,872 to almost $1,900 and recovering most of the post-CPI decline.
But here’s the first issue: will traders stick to their plan?
If the strategy was to short ETH near $1,900, reaching that level shouldn’t suddenly turn the plan into a long just because price kept rising. The past few days already punished traders who repeatedly chased strength and tried to catch every dip.
The second question is even more important: why has BTC defended the $63.1K–$63.2K area for three consecutive days?
Is this becoming a genuine support zone, or are sellers simply waiting for another catalyst to break it?
If support holds, the $63K–$64K region could be the base of the correction. If it fails, these rebounds could become bull traps.
For now, the short-term recovery is real, but the bigger direction remains unclear.
📌 BTC range: $63.28K–$64.47K
📌 ETH range: $1,872–$1,927
A breakout above resistance could confirm a reversal, while losing support would strengthen the bearish case.
BTC fell more than $2.3K from $65.5K to $63.16K in three days, but has only recovered toward $63.9K over the following two days.
So what do you think?
Is the recovery just getting started, or is this simply a pause before the downtrend continues? 👀
#CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Clear Longs, Hidden Shorts: Dual-Coin Sentiment Divergence on August 13
On August 13, BTC was priced at $63,682, down slightly by 0.34% in 24 hours and down 1.81% over seven days. The market looks calm on the surface, but derivative accounts are bleeding—over the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $35.59 million, accounting for nearly 90% of all BTC liquidations network-wide, with a long-short ratio of 1.85 and 65% of accounts crowded on the long side. Translated into plain language, this means: everyone knows the market is long, so every downward spike is a targeted liquidation. After one wave of liquidations, the next batch of leveraged buyers jumps in, repeating the cycle. Fortunately, BTC open interest has dropped 4.16% over the week to $47.35 billion, indicating that this deleveraging phase is halfway through and the crowding is being passively absorbed.
What’s truly worth pondering is $ETH. It doesn’t have liquidation data with the same granularity on the table, but price action reveals the hidden cards: in the early hours of August 13, ETH struggled around $1,890, and Robinhood’s prediction market showed contracts betting on "ETH surpassing $1,894.89" selling for only 0.1 cents—meaning the market is barely pricing in any rebound. This is what I call the "implicit short": there’s no long-short ratio snapshot, but pessimism is embedded in every odds line. ETH has slid from $2,330 in May to now, a nearly 20% decline over three months, with every rebound crushed by spot selling pressure. Shorts don’t even need to exert force; longs give up on their own.
This creates the most interesting divergence right now: $BTC shorts are "event-driven," profiting from liquidating obvious longs, coming fast and going fast; ETH shorts are "position-driven," playing the long game, betting on the ETH/BTC rate to keep falling. The Fear & Greed Index hovering between 26 and 38 confirms this—the market isn’t panicking, it’s numb.
There are two possible scenarios ahead: if BTC’s long liquidations pause and it holds above $63,000, capital attention will shift to covering ETH shorts. After all, when odds reach extremes, even a small spot buy can trigger a short squeeze, with $1,950 as the first dense short stop-loss zone above. Conversely, if ETH breaks below $1,850 and turns implicit shorts into an explicit trend, the entire altcoin sector will be dragged down. Tonight’s US July PPI is a variable; if inflation again exceeds expectations, a stronger dollar will first hit the thinner liquidity of ETH. My judgment: BTC is a clear oscillation, ETH is a hidden directional play. Watching ETH’s odds changes is more useful than watching BTC’s long-short ratio.