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Brothers, I am Xiao Ai from the OKX planet.
It is now 5 PM on August 20th. More than ten hours have passed since last night's frenzy of liquidating $1.191 billion worth of short positions.
Many people see BTC steady at 69,400 and ETH hovering around 2,250, and start itching inside: "Is it stable now? Can we chase?"
Xiao Ai's answer is straightforward: this kind of 'calm after a surge' is scarier than last night's rally.
Last night was "violent aesthetics," today is "psychological warfare."
Last night, the main force used the $1.191 billion short liquidation orders as fuel to push the price to the doorstep of 70,000. What is the main force doing in this afternoon's market? They are "testing the market."
Look at the 15-minute K-line chart; the current trend is a typical "low-volume sideways consolidation." The price can't fall, indicating that the profit-taking positions from last night haven't exited yet; the price can't rise, indicating that the 70,000 round number resistance is real. This "can't go up, can't go down" situation is most exhausting for the bulls' patience.
Here is a harsh truth: it costs the main force to push the price up, but it costs nothing to dump it down.
Last night, pushing the price from 64,000 to 70,000 cost the main force billions of dollars; now, to distribute chips at the 69k level, they only need to withdraw buy orders and let the market naturally fall back. At this afternoon's time (end of Asian session, start of European session, before US session), liquidity is relatively scarce. The main force chooses to "hold sideways" during this period, waiting for the US retail investors with FOMO (fear of missing out) to enter after the US market opens.
Looking at the technicals, although RSI has fallen from last night's high of 87, it is still above 70 in the overbought zone. On ETH's 4-hour chart, the MACD red bars are shortening, and the fast and slow lines show a death cross trend. This technical pattern is called "bullish momentum exhaustion" by traders.
More importantly, volume. Last night's surge was "huge volume," today's sideways consolidation is "extremely low volume." Price increases without volume are rogue moves; sideways consolidation without volume is "bull trap."
Brothers, Xiao Ai will not predict price direction today, only logic:
If BTC cannot break above 70,000 with volume and hold after the US market opens tonight, then last night's high is the short-term top.
If BTC breaks below the 69,000 support, the correction target will be 67,500 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of last night's rise).
The current market is like a stretched rubber band. Last night’s pull was too strong, now it needs time to repair. There are two ways to repair: one is sideways consolidation, exchanging time for space; the other is a quick correction, exchanging space for time.
My advice to brothers remains: control your hands and fasten your seatbelts.
1. Spot traders: If you held at the low last night, you can now set a "trailing take profit," for example, automatically exit if it retraces 5% to lock in profits.
2. Futures traders: This "low-volume sideways" is a leverage killer. The main force only needs a 1% fake breakout to kill both longs and shorts. It is recommended to stay out of the market and wait for a clear direction after the US market opens.
3. Those out of the market: Patience is the greatest virtue. If it truly breaks 70,000, you only miss the tail of the fish; if it truly corrects, you protect your principal.
Finally, Xiao Ai must repeat the compliance disclaimer:
This article is only a personal review note, compiled based on public market data (CoinGlass/OKX snapshots), does not constitute any investment advice, does not guide account opening, does not promise returns, and does not provide managed services. Digital assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be responsible for your own funds.
Last night, we witnessed the short-sellers' tragedy of $1.191 billion;
Tonight, we may witness whether the bulls can hold their ground.
I am Xiao Ai, on the OKX planet, accompanying you to understand the swordplay behind the market.I thought “VIP signal teacher Trump” was just a meme. Then the headlines hit. Trump is pushing the US toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework, backing the CLARITY Act and aiming to keep America at the center of the global crypto industry. The CFTC is also reportedly exploring a compliant path for Hyperliquid in the US — and $HYPE reacted instantly. Now the bigger picture makes sense: BTC had liquidity expectations from the US Treasury repo side. Trump added a fresh layer of regulatoryReviewed the 205 coins on Alpha that have perpetual contracts but no spot market, median drawdown is -44%. To put it simply, half of them are hovering around the halving line, and only 24 have truly broken through 70%.
So this isn't a drop to a position where no one wants them, it's stuck halfway up the mountain—not quite up or down, the most uncomfortable kind.
Looking at the chips: 84 are inverted with retail investors more bullish than whales, while whales are long on only 47. After halving, retail investors are still adding in; I lean bearish on this structure. The entire sector's open interest is just $1299M, the market is too thin, so the rebound can't gain momentum.In the past two days, Bitcoin surged straight back to the 70,000 mark, with $1.2 billion worth of short positions liquidated within a single hour. Many people hadn’t even reacted before the market rallied. On the surface, it looks like short covering pushed the price up, but the real trigger was actually two events coinciding: the Treasury Department signaling an expansion of U.S. Treasury bond liquidity purchases, combined with regulatory optimism from the White House crypto summit, which directly ignited market sentiment. The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced it will double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, increasing from $2 billion per month to at least $4 billion, specifically to support liquidity for 10- to 30-year Treasuries. This will be effective from September 9 through November 4. Many say this is a "disguised QE," which is a bit exaggerated, but the logic holds. While the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, the Treasury stepping in to buy long-term bonds essentially injects liquidity into the bond market to stabilize yields. The scale isn’t massive quantitative easing, but the signal is significant — it’s a clear message to the market that if the bond market becomes unstable, the Treasury will step in to support it. With pressure easing in the bond market and liquidity less tight, risk assets naturally rally first. There’s no need to overinterpret this move; it’s more like a "holding tactic" rather than full-scale easing. But the expectation it conveys is important: the market doesn’t need to worry about U.S. Treasuries spiraling out of control; there is a liquidity floor. On the same day, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, with many key figures from the sector attending. The most watched topic was when he was asked, "Will the government massively increase its Bitcoin holdings?" Trump’s answer was leftBrothers, I am Xiao Ai from the OKX planet.
It is now 5 PM on August 20th. More than ten hours have passed since last night’s huge bullish candle that crushed the shorts to the ground.
Looking back: BTC surged from around 64,000 last night, reaching an intraday high of 69,749–70,000 USDT, a 24h increase of 6.69%, hitting a new high since June 2; ETH rose from around 1,920 to a peak of 2,133, a 24h increase of 9.05%, closing at 2,089.96, the highest level since May 27. CoinGlass shows 1.345 billion USD liquidations across the network in the past 24h, with 1.191 billion USD from short liquidations, including 662 million USD in BTC shorts and 366 million USD in ETH shorts, forcing 105,000 traders out of the market.
But what I want to say is: last night’s frenzy is over, and today’s “quiet” market this afternoon is the real battleground that will decide the next move.
Currently (17:00 snapshot), BTC is oscillating narrowly between 69,400–69,500, ETH is hovering around 2,250–2,260 (some aggregated quotes have fallen back to the 2,087 range, reflecting cross-exchange price differences). On the surface, it looks like “sideways at a high level,” but breaking it down reveals three details:
First, volume has collapsed dramatically. Last night’s surge was accompanied by huge 15-minute volume bars, but this afternoon’s same-level K-line volume is just a fraction. The price didn’t drop after the rally, but it also didn’t continue to push higher—this is a typical state of profit holders reluctant to sell and high-level buyers watching cautiously. The main players have finished liquidating shorts (the 1.191 billion USD fuel is burned out), so there’s no need to immediately push a second rally with real money.
Second, indicators are moving from “stagnation” to “recovery.” Last night BTC’s RSI(6) hit 87, ETH’s KDJ J value reached 95, indicating extreme overbought conditions; this afternoon these values are retreating sideways at high levels, and the 4h timeframe is starting to flatten. This is not a reversal, but a “technical breather after a surge.” But you should know: after the breather, either volume expands for a second push to 70,000, or it dips to 68,000 to shake out profit takers. A prolonged sideways move must choose a direction.
Third, the macro shoe hasn’t dropped yet. Last night’s catalysts were the doubling of long-term US Treasury repo (30-year yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%), a White House closed-door crypto meeting, and continued ETF net inflows. But these are “expectations,” not “realizations.” Any upcoming Fed statements, Treasury’s September repo operations, or SEC crypto framework details could shake the 69k level again.
So my advice to brothers remains the same:
• Those who bought spot at low levels last night are now in the most comfortable position—profits are well buffered, don’t get shaken out by a single spike, but also don’t mistake a “pullback” for the end of a shakeout to add more;
• Those who chased at 69.8k / 2,300 last night, this afternoon’s sideways move is your time to recalculate: whether you can withstand a 5% retracement is more important than guessing tops or bottoms;
• For contract traders, this kind of “low-volume high-level” is a leverage killer; the cost of a spike is lowest, so it’s recommended to reduce leverage, cut losses, and avoid betting on breakouts;
• For those with no position, don’t rush this afternoon; waiting for the 4h candle close to confirm whether 69k holds is much cheaper than guessing direction at 69.4k.
Many ask me: why didn’t you short at the highest point last night?
Because I never guess the spike tip. What can be said at that level is “shorts got crushed badly, bulls don’t get overconfident, 70k is a chip wall,” not “short now.” It’s the same this afternoon—what can be said is “whether the post-surge market is consolidating or distributing,” not “buy now/sell now.”
The most expensive four words in the digital asset market are “this time is different.”
Last night’s 1.191 billion USD short liquidation told bulls: the trend is unstoppable.
Today’s quiet afternoon tells everyone: the trend is here, but it won’t surge every day; it will filter out those not buckled up.
I am Xiao Ai, on the OKX planet, only tracking the market, analyzing sentiment, no pie in the sky.
Last night’s 70k was the beginning of the story; today’s 69.4k sideways is the punctuation on how the story continues. $BTC The important distinction is between strategic intent and executable policy. Trump’s call for the US to accumulate a “substantial amount” of BTC and other crypto, alongside support for CLARITY, stablecoin legislation and a CBDC ban, signals a broader effort to shape digital-asset leadership.
BTC topping $69,000 and ETH surging show the market’s sensitivity to that signal. But without a purchase size, timeline or formal authorization, reserve expectations remain ahead of implementation. A durable repricing would likely require Congress and policy machinery to turn rhetoric into a defined framework.
Not advice, just analysis.
#TrumpEyesMoreBTC $ETH didn’t spend five years ranging for no reason The 2021 cycle pushed valuations far ahead of fundamentals Then came tightening, leverage unwinding, the collapse of speculative demand and a complete reset in how the market valued ETH Every rally into the range was sold That created a massive equilibrium between supply and demand But the structure is changing ETH has now returned to the same upper boundary that rejected it for years A clean breakout would mean the market has finally absorbed Gold holds steady at $4400
I'm still holding on, next target is $4700
This gold position is really getting more comfortable now.
Yesterday, spot gold directly broke through $4500, reaching a high of $4525.79. Although there was some profit-taking today, the price still remains around $4480 to $4510, so now it's not just about defending $4400, but starting to try to make $4500 the new consolidation range.
The biggest driver of this wave is still the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, causing long bond yields to drop and the dollar to weaken, which is very direct for gold.
Moreover, US debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, so the long-term fiscal logic hasn't disappeared.
I started buying around $4000, and my view hasn't changed much since.
If $4400 holds, I'll keep holding; once $4500 is firmly established, the next target is still $4700.
It's normal to have some pullbacks in between, and I actually don't want to move this position recklessly now.
$XAU $XAUT $XAG $CORE's major bull market is exploding across the board, so why is $CORE still stagnant?
In this round, BTC, ETH, and SOL collectively experienced violent short squeezes, with mainstream coins broadly rising, but CORE, which focuses on the BTCFi narrative, has clearly lagged behind. Although the narrative centers on Bitcoin ecosystem infrastructure and a Bitcoin bull market, the token price has not taken off accordingly. Behind this are multiple real-world contradictions involving narrative, token supply, ecosystem, and competition within the sector.
1. Token Supply Side: Continuous Selling Pressure, Historical Locked Positions Like a Mountain
1) Token supply pressure: total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with only 60% currently circulating. The remaining tokens are continuously and linearly released through mining and team allocations, constantly adding new tokens to the market, while demand has not kept pace with inflationary release.
2) Heavy historical locked positions: from the peak of $6.47, the price has dropped over 99%, accumulating a massive amount of locked tokens above. Any slight rebound triggers unlocking and sell-offs, and every rally is suppressed by selling pressure.
3) Small market cap: large incremental funds are reluctant to enter easily. The circulating market cap is not high; large funds can pump the price when entering but find it difficult to exit, making institutional investors cautious.
2. The Narrative Is Attractive, but On-Chain Real Data Has Yet to Materialize
- Positive story: positioned as Bitcoin DeFi underlying infrastructure, offering BTC staking, lending, lstBTC liquid staking, SatPay applications. The logic is that in a Bitcoin bull market, a large amount of idle BTC will come on-chain to generate yield, and CORE will capture the dividends.
- Reality gap: user numbers are slowly recovering, but native on-chain TVL remains very small, mostly consisting of cross-chain assets. Native on-chain blockbuster applications are scarce; although the ecosystem appears large, truly sustained on-chain funds and ordinary users are limited. Many projects deploy across multiple chains without forming exclusive ecosystem advantages.
- Revenue aspect: on-chain fee income has increased but remains small overall. The protocol revenue buyback mechanism has just started, and the buyback scale is insufficient to offset market selling pressure. This is a long-term logic and unlikely to drive short-term surges.
Simply put: the story has been told, but on-chain data has not caught up with the narrative's imagination. The market no longer pays solely for narrative but looks at real TVL and real protocol revenue.
3. Intense Competition Within the Sector, BTCFi Is Not Dominated by CORE Alone
After BTC became the market's main theme, many competitors entered the BTC-Fi sector. Stacks, Babylon, and Rootstock compete simultaneously, each vying for Bitcoin staking and Bitcoin DeFi market share.
- Stacks has native BTC staking, with rewards paid directly in BTC, gaining strong recognition from the native Bitcoin community;
- Babylon focuses on Bitcoin restaking;
CORE's dual staking mechanism requires staking CORE for high yields, which raises concerns among some native Bitcoin community members. The sector is fragmented, and funds are diverted among multiple parties, not concentrated solely on CORE.
4. Market Capital Siphoning Effect, Bull Market Does Not Mean Universal Gains
This round is driven by policy, ETFs, and short-seller liquidations causing short squeezes. On-exchange funds prioritize BTC, ETH, and SOL, the strongest consensus leading assets.
Incremental funds are limited and prioritize buying the most certain mainstream assets. Small coins and narrative-driven tokens get drained. Even in a bull market, "the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker" applies. CORE will only have its market window when the main theme rotates to the BTCFi sector.
When will CORE have a chance to start?
1) Overall sector rotation in BTCFi, with funds collectively flowing back to Bitcoin Layer 2/sidechain sectors;
2) Core products like lstBTC and SatPay successfully launch, with on-chain TVL and protocol revenue showing real explosive growth, and buyback scale truly expanding;
3) Selling pressure unlocks weaken, and the market digests the heavy historical locked positions.
Risk Warning
Narrative does not equal token price. Even if the sector logic holds, there will be a long waiting period. Small-cap tokens are highly volatile; even in a bull market, there is a risk of underperforming the broader market. Do not blindly take heavy positions to speculate on expectations.
$CORE $BTC $ETH💰 Bitcoin’s spot demand is about to turn positive for the first time since February.
Historically, that’s meant a +18.1% median gain over the next 60 days, with a 78% win rate.
With valuations this depressed, the win rate jumps to 87%.CORE vs. SOL: Why a Big Drop Doesn’t Guarantee a Big Rebound The biggest self-delusion in the $CORE community may be the constant comparison with SOL and the belief that CORE is destined for a similar comeback. Many holders trapped in long-term losses look to SOL’s historical performance for hope. After enduring endless volatility, gradual declines, and mounting paper losses, it is understandable that people search for examples that justify continuing to hold. But using someone else’s comeback s#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
AI I keep my distance from this line. Today's surge was assisted by AI narratives, but on the profit statement, it remains a drag.
Market page: Q2 R&D 9.2 billion, +18.9% year-on-year; Lei Jun said 100 billion will be invested in the next five years, 60 billion in AI over three years. MiMo-V2.5 ranks first with 10.5 trillion tokens called weekly on OpenRouter, and the robot model also took first place in evaluations, full marks for technical narrative.
But monetization is just starting—AI revenue is only counted as "other related income 1 billion," far from covering the 9.2 billion R&D. The more exciting the story, the colder the report.
I'm not saying AI has no value; in the short term, it consumes profit without generating profit. Pricing for the story, I am bearish.
$XIAOMI $ETH This huge daily candlestick ended consolidation in the same price area, giving me a feeling similar to last year.
Obviously, this is just a comparison; the price movement is unlikely to be exactly the same afterward, but it's still worth pointing out because it's so similar.
You don't often see such a large daily candlestick. But the last time this happened, I saw many people rushing to short, and the next two days saw an additional +20% rise.There is a question, I wonder if everyone has noticed:
1. The liquidation volume of $BTC is getting lower and lower, from over 1 billion unilaterally at the beginning of the year, to 600+ million in April-May, and now only 200-300 million.
2. Currently, mainstream exchanges' contract trading volume is dominated by US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil.
3. We see that US stocks with high heat and volatility attract huge interest, and their large fluctuations bring more liquidations and forced closures.
So, have you noticed: during the crypto winter, exchanges have introduced US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil futures to attract more traffic, which further diverts the already limited liquidity in the crypto space.
For exchanges, this means more traffic and trading volume.
But for crypto, it means a reduction in capital, less attention and support amid more choices, leading to more boring oscillations and potentially more severe volatility.
This is why I believe this is not the bottom, because the support for $BTC here is too weak. Previously, people only had a few options like BTC and ETH to buy the dip, but now there are more US stocks, even Hong Kong stocks. Moreover, stocks have harvested more retail investors' funds.
So the support for $BTC is much weaker, and any manipulation or black swan event could cause a much more terrifying drop.Today, $HYPE rose a lot. The fundamental reason is that Trump said he wants to push this project into the United States. If it really can enter the U.S., that would indeed be a good thing. However, entering the U.S. is not easy. We can also tell from the wording that it is an effort to introduce it, not a confirmation of introduction. This indicates that under the current laws and regulations, it is almost unlikely to enter the U.S. This means that if it is to enter the U.S., new laws and regulations must be in place. In fact, pushing for new laws and regulations in the U.S. is very difficult. So, in the short term, it is almost impossible for it to enter the U.S. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest increased in the afternoon today, while the corresponding long-short ratio was decreasing. This shows that when $HYPE rebounded at noon today, there were many shorts in the market. The market is currently not optimistic about the overall trend, and personally, I am not very optimistic either. Based on my analysis of this data, I infer that it is very likely just a rebound. Let's look at a longer time frame. It can be seen that from last night until now, as its price rose, its open interest has been climbing steadily, while the long-short ratio has been decreasing. This indicates that there are indeed many shorts currently shorting. —————————————————— I am not optimistic about this rebound, mainly because I don't trust Trump. Trump in the past$BTC stayed up all night trying to figure out why it surged like this
Summarized some reasons that could cause such a sharp rise
The U.S. Treasury announced a bond repurchase plan, which led to fewer bonds in the market. With fewer bonds, prices go up, yields go down, and with lower yields, people stop buying them. Large funds then shift to gold and btc. This is my personal take for now. What do you all think? #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 With the Senate vote approaching in mid-September, the interest rate spread between the banking sector's 0.3% demand deposit rate and the 5% yield on government bonds is driving the implementation of the CLARITY Act. Centralized platform stablecoin interest returns face compliance suppression, adding further uncertainty to cross-border capital flows.
The core contradiction in the current market lies in the redistribution of interest allocation rights. Traditional banks' defensive need to maintain a 4.7% net interest margin suppresses the interest return space of centralized exchanges, while on-chain permissionless protocols enjoy exemptions, making the 4.5% to 5.2% excess collateralized lending yields a safe haven for capital.
The primary variables in order of influence are the finalization progress of regulatory bill provisions, the outflow rate of funds from centralized exchanges, and the scale of capital locked in on-chain lending protocols. The bill's suppressive effect on risk appetite is driving positions to shift from centralized zero-interest wallets to on-chain liquidity pools.
The bullish scenario is based on the bill's exemption clauses clearly protecting on-chain protocols. If the mid-September vote confirms that on-chain lending is not subject to centralized interest return bans, assets like $USDC will accelerate inflows into permissionless protocols, locking in lossless yields above 4.5%, boosting total on-chain locked value and risk appetite. The invalidation signal for this scenario would be the bill's last-minute addition of penetrating regulatory language targeting decentralized protocols.
The bearish scenario stems from comprehensive regulatory tightening triggering risk-off sell-offs. If the Senate vote passes a blanket ban on all forms of stablecoin interest returns, market expectations for compliant stablecoin yield will be wiped out, and capital may temporarily shrink into cash or government bond substitutes, thereby reducing overall liquidity. The trigger condition for this scenario is a bill amendment stripping on-chain protocols of their exemption status.
The boundary for judging the failure of the dominant trend lies in whether the idle funds in centralized exchanges show abnormal inflows. If the scale of idle wallets on exchanges rises instead of falling before the bill's enactment, it indicates the market prefers to forgo the underlying 4.8% interest in exchange for absolute liquidity, necessitating a shift to a liquidity tightening narrative.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are changes in the definition of permissionless lending protocols in the Senate draft amendment text, and the net transfer volume of $USDC between centralized wallets and leading on-chain protocols.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
Objective Data
The single transaction limit for long-term bond repos has been raised from 2 billion to 4 billion, effective September 9. Following the announcement, the 30-year yield fell from 5.34% to 5.19%, risk assets strengthened, $BTC surged accordingly, and short positions were heavily liquidated; note this is a Treasury liquidity tool, not a Federal Reserve QE balance sheet expansion.
Market Surface Consensus
A disguised liquidity injection, interest rate pressure relieved, a new round of rally established in the crypto space.
Underlying Logic Analysis
The goal is to improve liquidity in the long-term bond market, not direct money printing. Funds come from the Treasury account, fundamentally different from QE. Short-term suppression of long-end yields benefits crypto assets but is a temporary fix; it cannot change the Fed’s rate hike divergence or the constraints of potential inflation rebound. Sentiment catalysts can boost the market but cannot solely drive a major bull market.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
This is a macro-level positive boost, not a guarantee of trend. Going forward, focus on whether US bond yields stabilize and if ETF inflows continue; do not rely solely on this event to keep pushing the market higher. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
Storage stocks are about to split into two universes!
SanDisk bragged yesterday, but today it got slammed to the ground. It opened down over 9%, closed down about 3.5%, while Western Digital and Seagate fell even harder. One day it rose 8.7% hitting a record high, the next day it turned completely sour—this rollercoaster ride is even more thrilling than altcoins!
Do you know what the bulls and bears are arguing about?
The bulls say: SanDisk painted a stunning picture—by 2030, data center Flash demand will reach 1.2ZB, with 8 long-term contracts signed totaling over $93.9 billion, gross margin hitting 80% and operating margin 75% from 2028 to 2030, and all excess cash 100% returned to shareholders. This isn’t a storage company, it’s a money printing machine!
The bears fire back: Junjie Xia from Renqiao Asset said, "The storage industry has very likely peaked," scaring the entire sector. Making decades’ worth of profits in one year, results that defy common sense are often short-lived. Changxin is rising, and supply-demand conflicts will clearly ease by the end of 2027. The stock market reacting and confirming the peak more than a year in advance is reasonable.
My stance is simple: I’m just watching the show, not taking sides. AI storage demand is real, long-term contracts locking in profits are real, but the stock price going from 235 to 2354 then halving to 1741—chasing at this level? No way. Shorting? Even less so. I’ll wait until the "expectations" and "reality" accounts are settled.
Brothers, do you think storage stocks are a golden pit or a peak signal? Fight it out in the comments!#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
$BTC I won't declare a new cycle just because BTC rose 11% in one day. The trend has strengthened over the past 7 and 30 days, but the return over the past 90 days is still negative. This looks more like a strong trend correction, and the supply above hasn't disappeared out of thin air.
The bullish factors are real: the expansion of US Treasury repos has eased long-term rate pressure, and the spot ETF has seen a net inflow of about $1 billion over three days. The risks are also real: the price is hitting 72,000, the 4-hour RSI is about 90, and the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27 to 29 may disrupt rate expectations again.
So I won't open short positions against the trend, nor will I chase near 71,800. The base scenario is a range of 69,500–73,500; after confirming a stable break above 72,000, then look at 74,000–75,000; if it falls below 68,800 on the 1-hour chart, treat it as a false breakout. BTC breaks through $69,000, how far can this rally go? The market has given an answer, as well as some suspense. 🔥 Just now, BTC powerfully stood above $69,000, reaching an intraday high of $69,888, just one step away from the $70,000 milestone. The spot market erupted simultaneously, with ETH hitting a high of $2,119, a single-day increase of over 8%. This surge is remarkable in both strength and speed. Why the sudden surge? The direct trigger came from the U.S. Treasury. The official announcement expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to quickly fall from a 19-year high of 5.33% to 5.19%. The long-term interest rate, the tightest "shackle" suppressing BTC, has finally loosened. The expectation of falling rates directly ignited risk asset sentiment. Then, a short squeeze triggered a chain reaction. A large number of high-leverage short positions were stacked above $63,000; after the price broke this key level, it triggered a series of liquidations and forced closures. These forced buy orders became the fuel pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, ETF funds continued to flow in, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a net inflow of over $200 million in a single day, showing institutional buying was not absent. How to view it now? There are many profit-taking positions near $69,000, so short-term consolidation and digestion are possible. The first support level is in the $65,800 to $66,000 range; if it holds steady, the next target points to $71,000 to $72,000. But if it falls below $65,000, this short squeeze structure may be broken and a reassessment will be needed. In terms of operations, chasing the high$CORE market trends often emerge from despair. Many say that CORE now has the perfect timing, favorable conditions, and unity of people, making it the right moment to build positions and plan layouts. But is this really the case?
The so-called perfect timing means the BTC-Fi sector is regaining market capital attention and overall market sentiment is warming up;
Favorable conditions rely on Satoshi-Plus's unique consensus, binding the narrative to Bitcoin's computing power;
Unity of people means after a long decline, many holders have cut losses and exited, leaving the market filled with despair.
However, we must distinguish between imagination and reality.
Perfect timing: sector recovery does not mean dividends directly flow to CORE; with many competitors in the same sector, funds will be divided.
Favorable conditions: no matter how good the technical narrative is, it still faces continuous selling pressure from long-term token unlocks, and the ecosystem's real users and on-chain revenue have yet to be realized on a large scale.
Unity of people: despair is just a market sentiment; sentiment does not equal a bottom, and despair can deepen even further after initial despair.
The so-called "perfect timing, favorable conditions, and unity of people all gathered" is merely a bullish subjective judgment, not a definite signal given by the market.
Please share!The leader has something to say
OpenAI's Q2 revenue was $6.7 billion, up 18% quarter-over-quarter, with losses expanding from $9.3 billion to $12.3 billion. Anthropic's revenue for the same period was $11.6 billion, more than doubling quarter-over-quarter, and it recorded a slight adjusted operating profit.
The gap between the two is widening. Anthropic's enterprise client revenue is growing faster, and its operational efficiency currently leads. OpenAI has a larger user base and product ecosystem, but its losses are accelerating. The CFO said they plan to go public in 2027, possibly earlier if business accelerates.
Valuation discussions for AI companies are extending from revenue growth to losses, profit margins, and computing power costs. The market is willing to pay for high growth, but if losses continue to grow faster than revenue, the risk of valuation inversion between primary and secondary markets will gradually accumulate.
For crypto, this is somewhat indirect. The most active venture capital in the market is limited; Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are all competing for liquidity, which relates to the shrinking trading volume of Bitcoin. The White House summit and SEC draft provide regulatory narratives, but incremental funds have not truly arrived yet. $BTC $ETH $SOL #
Bitcoin has fallen from 70059 to fluctuate around 68000, staying out of the market waiting for a pullback. Buy near 66000 with a stop loss at 65000. Continue holding SPCX as a base position; profits are sufficient. Not chasing ETH.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ The Fed minutes are out! A serious 9:3 split, the short-term market logic has completely changed🚨
The latest July FOMC minutes are released: 9 Fed members voted to keep rates unchanged, 3 supported a rate hike.
This is a rare serious internal division in recent years, with hawkish voices clearly rising, and market expectations for rate cuts have been directly cooled.
Many wonder: Is this a real tightening? Or just a smokescreen?
My judgment is clear:
Not an immediate rate hike, but to prevent the market from prematurely betting on easing.
The three officials advocating rate hikes are mainly concerned about sticky inflation, but the final decision still focuses on stability.
The true future policy direction still depends on the two core data points: inflation and employment. As long as the data continues to weaken, the hawkish split will eventually be absorbed by the market, so no need to panic excessively.
But for the short-term market, the impact is very direct:
The recently pulled-up rebound needs to reprice easing expectations; short-term volatility and pullback shakeouts are highly probable.
$BTC view
The large-scale bullish structure remains unchanged, but the short term enters a cautious window.
The 70,000 level is a key resistance zone for this rebound, and sentiment premium is already maxed out.
This is not the time to chase highs; heavy positions can take profits in batches and hedge for protection.
Being bullish long-term and cautious short-term against pullbacks is not contradictory.
$ETH view
ETH’s characteristics have always been clear: more extreme volatility than BTC, greater elasticity, and faster pullbacks.
It performs strongest when the market warms up, but falls hardest when macro is hawkish and risk appetite declines.
Strong resistance above 2300–2400; decisively do not chase highs stubbornly, patience to wait for pullbacks to buy at better value is wiser.
In summary
BTC sets the big market direction, ETH profits from sentiment elasticity.
Fed divisions suppress short-term heat but do not rewrite the long-term easing trend.
Control positions and guard against pullbacks short-term; remain firmly bullish long-term.
$BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Options are rewriting the operational rhythm of BTC and ETH, and spot sideways ≠ true market calm🚨
Deribit and Coinbase derivatives continue to expand, with the BTC and ETH options market size constantly growing. This is a key variable that most retail investors easily overlook but is enough to influence market rhythm.
Most traders only focus on spot candlesticks,
but institutional funds observing the market no longer just watch spot price changes; they also reference implied volatility, call/put option ratios, option expirations, market maker Gamma, and open interest—these derivative indicators.
$BTC is becoming increasingly institutionalized, and derivatives increasingly constrain the market.
After institutions allocate ETF spot holdings, they buy put options to hedge downside risk; funds holding spot sell call options to earn premiums; mining companies use options and futures to lock in mining revenue; market makers continuously perform dynamic hedging following option positions.
This creates a phenomenon: prices remain locked in a range for a long time, and the market appears lifeless. But once the range breaks, a large amount of hedging positions are passively triggered, causing the market to accelerate explosively.
$ETH is even more affected by derivatives disturbances.
ETH’s inherent volatility is higher than BTC’s, liquidity is thinner, and narratives are more diverse.
Once catalysts like stablecoin regulation, staking ETFs, DeFi revival, or macro easing emerge, the combined positions of options and perpetual contracts will multiply ETH’s price swings.
Low-volatility sideways movement is precisely the phase where risks quietly accumulate.
When the market consensus expects no major fluctuations, option contracts become cheap, and large amounts of capital choose to sell volatility, with positions piling up in the same direction.
When unexpected changes occur in Fed minutes, Jackson Hole meetings, regulatory news, or ETF fund flows, the previously calm market structure collapses instantly.
What drives the market may not be the news itself but the passive market caused by massive positions concentrated and re-hedged.
Currently, BTC and ETH are at critical sideways junctures.
On the surface, it looks calm, but underwater, a large amount of structural chips have already accumulated.
BTC around 69800: if call option chips concentrate above, seller hedging pressure will suppress the rise; once successfully broken through, the market will surge rapidly.
ETH: if options and funding rates reverse, whether bulls or bears, passive chasing will occur.
Retail investors focusing only on the spot market are easily one step behind the market.
Positive news without a price rise may be option sellers suppressing volatility;
Sudden spikes without news don’t necessarily mean new positives, just triggered hedging positions;
ETH’s short-term elasticity far exceeds BTC’s, often because its chip structure is lighter and more easily driven by capital.
The next big market move often doesn’t start with community hype but with signals from the volatility market.
Spot is the water surface; option positions hide underwater.
The calmer the surface, the more formidable the power accumulating below.
Sideways does not mean nothing is happening; it’s just the eve of a breakout, with the spring being continuously compressed.
$BTC $ETH#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC
This round of BTC has pushed from 64,300 all the way to around 71,800, which is not just short covering. The expansion of U.S. Treasury repo has restored risk appetite, and about $1 billion has flowed into spot ETFs over the last three trading days, indicating that there is indeed capital supporting beyond the contracts.
The problem is that the price is already close to 72,000, and the 4-hour RSI has also reached around 90. At this point, the risk-reward ratio for continuing to chase the rise is not good. I prefer to observe the quality of the pullback between 70,000 and 70,500: if it holds and then retakes 72,000, the next target could be 73,500 to 75,000; if it quickly falls back below 68,800, this breakout will need to be reassessed.Why can ACO achieve Web2-level response speed? A look at performance from a three-layer hybrid architecture ⚡
Have you ever experienced the frustrating "click confirm and wait 5 seconds" or "chat messages not sending" during on-chain interactions? ACO solves this problem from the underlying architecture:
⚙️ High-performance distributed architecture
Underlying Golang consensus: achieves 6500+ TPS and second-level block confirmation, ensuring zero lag in DEX trading and low-cost high-frequency interactions.
Middle layer Node.js high-concurrency routing: provides microsecond-level concurrent data response for IM encrypted messages, community square updates, and live audio-video data streams.
Frontend Flutter full-end rendering: delivers ultra-smooth cross-platform interaction with seamless interface loading and wallet wake-up.
Keep complex technology off-chain and at the base layer, and leave the ultra-fast, seamless experience to users.
#BlockchainDevelopment #PerformancePublicChain #ACO #Golang #Web3Experience Brothers, in the end, why am I still willing to give CORE a chance now?
It's not because it has dropped a lot, so I think "the more it falls, the more it should rise."
I no longer believe in that logic.
Rather, I feel that it is at least still moving forward around BTCFi, with staking, BTC assets, DeFi, institutions, and underlying upgrades all gradually coming together.
The official 2026 roadmap has even focused on "generating revenue from BTCFi and feeding value back to CORE through economic design."
I don't know if this path will ultimately succeed.
But at least it gives me a reason to keep observing.
So I still say:
Don't blindly go all in, and don't rush to short; first, let's see if CORE can really play its card.$HYPE
$LINK
$UNI
The US White House crypto meeting set the tone
— giving the green light to the "tokenization" dividend.
These three tokens
are on a high-speed rally like they've been injected with adrenaline. Whose bull is back? $ETH Can we chase this surge?
ETH is indeed strong this time, breaking through $2300 intraday, reaching a high of $2335, clearly outperforming BTC.
Even more astonishing, short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion in 24 hours.
But liquidation ≠ real buying.
Short liquidations essentially mean forced buybacks, which can easily create a "rise → liquidation → further rise" chain reaction. This kind of market can be fast but also fragile.
What really matters is whether new funds are coming in to take over.
On August 19, ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $189 million, marking three consecutive days of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day inflow of about $122 million, indicating that the spot side is not completely absent.
Technically, after ETH broke above 2300, short-term moving averages started to turn up, MACD momentum is recovering, RSI has entered a strong zone but is also approaching a high level.
The problem is: it’s rising too fast.
If RSI stagnates at a high level and price consolidates, short-term profit-taking pressure will clearly increase.
Currently, focus on three points:
① Whether 2300 can turn from resistance into support
② Whether ETF net inflows can continue
③ Whether the spot market can hold the price after liquidations end
Liquidations can push prices up, but only sustained buying can maintain the trend.
The most important now is to watch: price + ETF fund flows + leverage liquidations, don’t get scared into FOMO by the $1.1 billion liquidation.
Shorts are dying badly, but that doesn’t mean the bulls have already won. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Citibank plans to launch BTC custody; on the surface, it's a banking product
But essentially, it's the backend infrastructure for institutional entry starting to be completed
Many people think institutions buying BTC just need a trading button. Actually, that's not the case. When truly large funds come in, they need to solve a whole set of issues: custody, permissions, auditing, insurance, valuation, taxation, reporting, redemption, internal risk control. Without these, even if the investment committee wants to buy, the operations department can block it
So I think custody news is more worth watching than short-term market moves
It won't be as exciting as a price surge, but it's laying the groundwork. ETFs solve "compliant buying," bank custody solves "long-term holding." Once traditional financial backends are willing to accept BTC, more structured products, collateralized financing, and portfolio allocations will follow
For crypto assets entering mainstream finance, the final battle isn't about hype
It's whether the backend systems are willing to open a slot for it
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 On 08/18, the US SEC proposed a new framework for crypto assets. One of the most notable points: Some projects may access a special exemption mechanism for token issuance, instead of being forced entirely under the traditional securities framework. The proposal even includes a safe harbor direction for certain crypto assets that meet specific conditions. This is not the final law yet. But the direction is very clear: The US is shifting from “enforcement first” to building a path for crypto to operate within the financial system. If x After more than two months of frustration, the bulls have gone completely crazy. The big coin starting with 6 didn't even have time to wave goodbye, as the price surged again with a big bullish candle straight to the 72,000 mark. Bullish sentiment is at an unprecedented high. The bears suffered their third heavy blow within 24 hours. Looking at the market, the demand for adjustment has clearly reached its limit. Before the trend stabilizes after this bear washout, there will inevitably be a deep correction wave, which will further lure bears while also clearing out some bulls. Only then will the market have a chance to return to 77,000. Volatility has suddenly increased sharply. Recent operations must strictly control position sizes. Whether you make more or less profit is secondary; safety comes first. The short-term outlook is mainly for adjustment, while swing and mid-to-long-term opportunities should be sought after the adjustment ends.
Short BTC positions near 72,000, watch around 70,000. Short ETH positions near 2,300, watch around 2,220. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 📊 CRYPTO’S BREAKOUT HAS A MACRO BACKDROP
The dollar is near a three-month low while U.S. Treasury measures have helped ease pressure on long-term yields.
That combination is improving the environment for risk assets.
BTC’s move toward $70K therefore isn't happening in isolation.
Dollar ↓ + yields ↓ + liquidity improving = crypto gets room to run. 🚀
#FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings The Bitcoin market is like a mirror, reflecting not the numbers of wealth, but your expression when wrestling with desire.
Profit is not necessarily a blessing. When the red candles bloom like fireworks, don't forget to look back—the excitement of first understanding the whitepaper, the coffee grounds at the bottom of the cup during late-night K-line studies, the rationality you defended amid community disputes. These are more valuable than USDT because they are proof of your "cognitive upgrade."
Loss is not necessarily a curse. The moment your account shrinks is also when the bubble fades. Mr. Market teaches you in the harshest way: true lasting wealth is the peace of mind to sleep soundly during crashes and the sobriety to remain restrained during surges. The pain of "cutting losses" is sculpting the framework of your investment philosophy.
You see, Bitcoin's volatility never stops for anyone, but every rise and fall reshapes your cognitive map. Losses are scholarships awarded by the market; profits are temporary gifts entrusted by fate. When you can calmly say "profit and loss share the same source," you have transformed from a speculator into an observer—this is the most precious computing power blockchain grants humanity: cultivating the wisdom to cope with impermanence within mathematical certainty.
So, there's no need to be swayed by the K-line's joys and sorrows. What you collect in this digital gold era is not fiat symbols, but the interest of courage and the dividends of cognition. When you look back at today ten years from now, you will thank the self who practiced composure amid the storm—that self has recorded the most substantial entry in life's ledger.
"We won because we participated; we earned because we grew." #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Family, the storage sector has been very volatile these past two days.
After SanDisk released its long-term goals at Investor Day, it surged, then dropped over 9 points at the open on August 18; on August 19 at the US market open, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron, and others briefly rebounded, but by close the sector weakened again, with SanDisk down about 3.5%, and Western Digital and Seagate falling even more.
What does the short-term capital switching repeatedly at high levels indicate?
The market is still tugging over AI storage demand, long-term customer agreements, and valuation repricing. BofA believes SanDisk's long-term growth and margin targets can serve as a reference for Micron's valuation, which logically makes sense—80% gross margin, 75% operating margin are indeed attractive. But whether these targets can be met depends on NAND price trends, execution of customer agreements, and whether AI server demand can continue to support margins.
A few words from me:
The fundamentals of storage are not bad, long-term contracts are solid orders, and AI demand is still growing. But market expectations have been raised very high, so any signal below expectations will be amplified. This round of volatility is less about digesting the gains and more about digesting the gap between "bright expectations and reality."
The long-term direction is fine, but you need to manage the short-term rhythm yourself. At this position in storage, don't chase the highs. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $SNDK $BTC $ETH Bitcoin violently breaks through $69,000: Is this the start of a raging bull run, or a high-level liquidity grab?
After weeks of a dull, extremely narrow sideways consolidation, Bitcoin suddenly unleashed a large bullish candle, violently breaking through the psychologically significant $69,000 ceiling without any warning.
Ethereum and major altcoins responded with synchronized rebounds, and the entire crypto social media instantly switched from the despairing freezing point of the past few days to a frenzy of rapid bullish recovery.
But amid the celebration, if you shift your focus away from the bouncing price candlesticks and carefully review the micro-level market data, you will notice some extremely subtle divergences.
To judge how far this $69,000 breakthrough can go, the key is not how many points it has risen, but to understand what the "fuel" pushing the price upward actually is.
The first possibility is genuine incremental spot capital flowing back from outside. For example, spot ETFs seeing net subscriptions of hundreds of millions of dollars in a single day, or the Coinbase Premium (spot premium index on Coinbase) continuously soaring, with spot active buying (Spot CVD) showing a healthy upward slope. This kind of breakout is driven by real buying power that consumes all the sell orders above with actual money, and such moves often have strong sustainability.
The second possibility is the classic and most brutal "short liquidation and leverage chase (Short Squeeze & Leverage FOMO)." During the extremely dull sideways consolidation over the past month, a large number of high-leverage short positions betting on a breakdown accumulated. The main funds only need to ignite a small amount of spot to instantly trigger a dense liquidation zone between $68,000 and $69,000. When shorts are forced to cover by buying back, combined with greedy longs chasing leverage, the market can experience a pulse-like violent surge in a very short time.
Judging from the current sharp increase in on-chain open interest and the jump in funding rates, leverage and liquidation have contributed significant momentum to this breakout.
This brings an unavoidable risk: the historical high zone between $69,000 and $73,000 is a heavy concentration of chips locked from the last bull market and the massive trapped positions accumulated in the first half of this year. If in the coming days, Wall Street spot ETFs and on-chain spot buying do not quickly increase to support the price, then after the short liquidations are completed, the bulls lacking spot buying power to hold the high levels could easily become liquidity stepping stones for market makers to unload their positions.
Facing this fierce rebound, my own trading strategy is very restrained: absolutely do not fire the first shot, and resolutely avoid chasing the first large bullish breakout candle.
My response logic is very simple:
If you hold a spot base position built at low levels, just hold and move your stop loss up to the neckline at $66,500, letting profits run.
If you currently have a light position or are out of the market, do not get emotionally swept up to add leverage and chase above $69,000. The true right-side entry signal is to wait for the price to complete a low-volume pullback confirmation in the $67,500 to $68,500 range, accompanied by spot CVD still showing healthy volume expansion.
In the trading world, it is better to miss a fish-head move full of uncertainty than to become the fuel for market makers’ high-level liquidity traps.
Bitcoin has reclaimed $69,000. Do you think this rebound will break the all-time high in one go, or will it turn into a fake breakout shakeout? Are you choosing to add positions, wait and see, or take profits in batches on rallies?
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The above content represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ 📊 First, let's look at the battle report: Shorts were crushed, setting a historic record. On August 19, Bitcoin violently surged from a low of $64,166 to a high of $70,000, marking the first time in two months. Ethereum pushed up to $2,300, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 18%. Solana rose about 12%, reaching approximately $86. The real focus is on liquidation data: Bitcoin shorts closed over $1 billion within one hour, totaling $1.42 billion for the entire day; Ethereum shorts closed about $1.13 billion, Solana about $105 million. The entire market saw nearly $3 billion in liquidations over 24 hours. The scale of short liquidations in a single day set a historic record. Three forces pressed the pedal simultaneously: Trump's White House calling for the CLARITY Act, the Treasury doubling the scale of long bond buybacks, and the SEC easing regulations [previously mentioned in conversations]—policy, macro, and regulatory factors converged, the big bull stomped the pedal so hard it broke, and shorts were directly crushed into meat patties. ⚔️ Manstein's perspective: The blitzkrieg has begun, but elastic defense has yet to come. Manstein's core concept is switching between two strategic forms: "Blitzkrieg"—concentrated forces, rapid breakthrough, one decisive strike; "Elastic defense"—active withdrawal, luring the enemy deep, and counterattacking opportunistically. The current market is in the offensive phase of "blitzkrieg." Trump's calls + Treasury easing + SEC deregulation, three forces acting simultaneously, violently clearing short positions within a day. This is a textbook blitzkrieg—concentrating all positives to strike shorts in the shortest time possibleBitcoin surged nearly 10% in less than 24 hours, breaking above 70,000 at one point. It's been a long time since we've seen such a rally. Many friends who don't follow cryptocurrency might still be confused, wondering why it suddenly skyrocketed?
Here's a simple summary of the main reasons.
- The SEC proposed a set of Regulation Crypto Assets rules, which essentially provide crypto projects with a more relaxed and clearer token financing path, a regulatory positive.
- On Wednesday, Trump held a closed-door crypto meeting at the White House, where he explicitly urged Congress to quickly pass a fair version of the CLARITY Act and fully push for the Senate vote in September.
- The U.S. Treasury increased the scale of repurchase operations for some 10-30 year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, causing long-term bond yields to fall and liquidity to return.
However, in my view, the fundamental reason is that Bitcoin's price has been sideways for over two months, and it's time to break out in one direction. Positive news is the most direct catalyst for the market.
Actually, back in April and May this year, it was mentioned that the crypto bear market was entering its latter half. The price around 60,000 is very suitable for DCA (dollar-cost averaging) investments. Even if it drops to 50,000, that's at most a 20% unrealized loss, and DCA quickly lowers the cost.
In the next bull market, we could see 150,000 to 180,000, and optimistically even 200,000, which translates to 2-3 times returns—much better than short-term contract gambling.
For dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, you can use OKX's DCA strategy, which supports hourly/daily/weekly/monthly investment frequencies and allows investing within a certain price range $SOL whales are active again.
A previously dormant smart-money wallet just bought 47,535 SOL (~$3.6M) after more than two years of silence.
This same wallet accumulated heavily in 2023 at an average of $23.37 and later took over $20M in profits near $128.
At the same time, a separate leveraged whale closed half of a large long position for ~$475k realized profit while still holding the rest.
Spot accumulation from a proven wallet is meeting selective profit-taking.
Traders will be watching $agpu finished the Q2 earnings call, focusing on four key points:
1. Each contract requires a prepayment of 20-40%. In August, $317 million in prepayments were received, demonstrating $agpu's customer creditworthiness and delivery capability.
2. Contract profitability is stronger than crwv and nbis, with an expected EBITDA margin of 62%-76%, compared to 59% for crwv and 50% for nbis.
3. Evolving into a computing power center owner, partnering with duos to hold a 49% stake in a newly built data center. In the future, they will not only lease machine rooms but also directly own machine rooms and power assets, which will enhance long-term cost control and bargaining power.
4. In the short term, they do not rely on stock financing, mainly using customer prepayments and bond issuance to basically cover construction funds, avoiding dilution of existing shareholders' equity.
Compared to the initial release of our research report, the stock price has seen a good increase, but relative to the expected contracts worth billions of dollars, the current stock price is seriously undervalued. This is mainly due to a time mismatch between order delivery and financial report reflection.
$AGPU$BTC Bitcoin experienced a significant surge today, mainly driven by a combination of favorable macro policies, improved regulatory expectations, and multiple technical factors in the market:
1. The U.S. Treasury expands bond repurchase, reducing holding costs
The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the repurchase scale of 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year long-term bonds. This move effectively lowered long-term bond yields and weakened the U.S. dollar. For non-yield assets like Bitcoin, the decline in long-term interest rates reduces investors' opportunity costs, greatly enhancing its appeal as a risk asset.
2. Positive signals from policy and regulation
- White House senior meeting: U.S. President Trump met with executives from several crypto companies including Coinbase, Payward, and Blockchain.com at the White House, urging Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which boosted market optimism about the U.S. government promoting a friendly regulatory framework.
- SEC proposes new rules: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed new crypto asset regulatory rules, planning to exempt certain digital assets from issuance registration requirements, aiming to lower compliance financing barriers for startups.
- Expectations of increased government holdings: Trump also hinted at considering regulatory agencies' suggestions regarding further government acquisition of Bitcoin, further boosting market confidence. There are no coincidences on the chessboard. Nor on the candlestick chart.
When you can only see the current 24H bearish candle, what I am looking at is the midgame situation of this chess match—$LRC is near the lower Bollinger Band, with a short-term Bollinger position at 18%, and only 0.3% space left to the lower band. This is like a player being pressed to the edge of the board but still exposing a pawn chain gap, luring the opponent to attack proactively.
What I look at is never this move, nor the next move, but the endgame twenty moves later.
Let me first clarify my judgment: the current price is $0.01, down 2.21% in 24 hours. The market has dropped, panic selling has emerged. But the RSI short-term is 33.4, long-term 46.7, both in neutral zones—this is not a collapse of a sacrificed piece, it’s the opponent bluffing. A true master will not recklessly check before the opponent shows a flaw; he will first adjust the knight, move the rook, and occupy open lines.
Currently, $LRC gives you three chances to play.
First, the deviation rate. The price is only 1.6% away from the Bollinger middle band and just 0.3% from the lower band, almost a moment of stillness after the spring is compressed to its limit. Second, the Relative Strength Index. The short-term RSI at 33.4 is close to oversold but not completely broken, and the long-term 46.7 bearish momentum is insufficient to crush the rebound. Third, the rhythm. A 2.21% drop yet traders are cutting losses and exiting, indicating floating positions are being cleared—this is not a deadlock, but a positional exchange in the midgame.
Those who only look at their current positions will stop loss and exit here.
But I am looking at the endgame. Your entry should be set 4.7% below the current price, a deeper low, which is the ambush zone waiting for the opponent to make a slow move. Target 1 is achieved at +6.0%, the first square where the rook penetrates the enemy line in a straight line; Target 2 is realized at +6.6%, the moment the knight jumps to c7 to complete the lock. Stop loss is set at -16.0%, no shame in that—sacrificing a piece is reserving a retreat path in advance.
Knowing when to sacrifice a piece is the harshest dividing line between masters and amateurs. You can allow yourself to lose a game, but never allow yourself to be completely wiped out. Position management is castling; you always need to keep your king shielded behind the thickest pawn chain.
For $LRC, I will not shout "check" today. I will quietly watch it complete a long castling, wait for it to reach a point lower than I expected—then place a heavy piece on that move.
True profit often arrives only after you have calculated the entire chess game more than your opponent.Brothers, this wave of $BTC hit the 70,000 threshold with a big bullish candle, liquidating nearly 3 billion USD in shorts within 24 hours, the bears got thoroughly bloodied.
But Shibe has to pour cold water—short squeeze ≠ bull recovery, tomorrow's Deribit 1.82 billion options settlement is the real test.
Short squeeze feels great, but essentially it's "short covering."
This rally is mainly driven by passive buying from short covering, not new real money piling in. In other words, the 10 billion forced liquidations are "borrowed" gains, not "grown" gains.
Once the covering is done, the probability of a downward correction increases.
More subtly, Deribit data shows BTC's max pain point at $66,000, current price $69,400—over 3,000 above the pain point.
Market makers, to minimize losses on sold options, are incentivized to dynamically hedge and "magnetically" pull the price toward the pain point around settlement.
This means during tomorrow's settlement period, the market might be dragged down by an invisible hand.
$ETH is even more dangerous.
ETH's put/call ratio is 0.77, higher than BTC's. This indicates smart money is quietly buying puts to hedge downside rather than chasing calls. This signal has been quite reliable before past settlements—retail sees a surge, institutions see risk.
Shibe's trading advice:
Don't chase highs short-term: The 70,000 round number plus options settlement double pressure means chasing now just hands fees to market makers.
Wait for settlement: Volatility will spike around 08:00 UTC tomorrow settlement; wait for direction before acting.
Heavy hedging: Spot holders can buy near-month puts, cost is low but can protect against black swans.
Bull recovery or bull trap: Too early to conclude. A true bull recovery requires price to hold above 70,000 post-settlement with sustained spot volume growth; otherwise, it's a bull trap.
A harsh truth: Bears just got squeezed out, bulls should be cautious. The market never lets the majority comfortably profit—1.82 billion options settlement is a battleground between market makers and retail.
I'm Shibe, see you in the comments tomorrow after settlement👇#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ $SNDK $DOGE Tonight I saw $BTC surge strongly, so I chased a long position on $ETH around $2,094.80, using 25x leverage with a margin of about $82. The current price has entered a high volatility range; ETH briefly broke through $2,200 in the short term, with a 24-hour increase close to 18%. This rally is driven not only by BTC but also by concentrated short liquidations and the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases. However, the biggest risk here is the pullback after the surge. In the short term, I will use $2,150 as the first defense level: 🔥 Holding above $2,150 → chance to retest $2,250–$2,300 ⚠️ Breaking below $2,150 → possible pullback to $2,080–$2,100 📉 If $2,080 also fails, the short-term strong structure will clearly cool down. Additionally, recently there have been large short positions on ETH forcibly liquidated; one 50,000 ETH short was forced to close during the rapid rise, with a single loss close to $24 million, indicating very high leverage and volatility in the current market. Now it's not just about bullish or bearish, but whether key supports can hold. #ETH #BTC #Ethereum #Crypto #Altcoins #Trading #ETHUSDTIn the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated about $3.1 billion, of which short positions liquidated about $2.56 billion, accounting for over 82%. A large number of shorts were forced to cover after the price broke through key resistance levels, creating a chain reaction of rise—short squeeze—continued rise.
For this round of $BTC rally, I believe there are two main driving factors.
First, the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a rapid rebound in market risk appetite. BTC, as a high-volatility risk asset, directly benefits from improved liquidity expectations.
Second, the market had previously accumulated a large number of short positions. After BTC broke through key resistance levels, shorts were continuously liquidated, with about $2.56 billion of short positions liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours. Forced covering created additional buying pressure, further amplifying the gains.
But don’t blindly go long now.
This rally has a strong short squeeze component, and the liquidation buying is one-time. After the shorts are mostly cleared, whether the price can continue to rise ultimately depends on whether spot trading volume, ETF funds, and new buying can keep up. If the price continues to hit new highs but volume does not expand accordingly, be cautious of a pullback after the surge.
What do you think will happen next?
$BTC $ETH When $BTC and $ETH strengthen, the overall market sentiment switch is flipped. But when funds actually enter the market, they rarely spread evenly across all altcoins—the first wave of overflow money always picks the leaders with good liquidity, high recognition, and stable sector positions.
The logic is simple: Bitcoin and Ethereum are the anchors, responsible for lifting risk appetite; only when ETH/BTC turns upward and BTC market dominance peaks and declines will profit-taking overflow. At this point, institutions and whales want "assets that can absorb funds + have enough elasticity." Small altcoins have shallow depth and are prone to sharp dips, so the top players in each sector get the gains first.
Once sentiment rises, focus first on these leaders:
AI Computing Power: $TAO (Bittensor, core AI narrative asset, often compared to Nvidia sentiment)
Meme Sentiment: $DOGE (veteran meme anchor), $PEPE (ETH-based meme liquidity king)
Perp DEX: $HYPE (Hyperliquid's derivatives leader), $LIT (high elasticity in perp sector)
ETH Staking: $LDO (Lido, staking rate closely tied to ETH catch-up)
RWA Asset On-Chain: $ONDO (tokenized US Treasury benchmark, core for institutional line)
Oracle: $LINK (Chainlink, infrastructure usually leads market rebounds)
DeFi Lending: $AAVE (lending sector benchmark, lending demand during volatility supports valuation), etc…$SNDK
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
#迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注
1. Core Binding Relationship: How Does It Actually Link with the Crypto Market?
1. Demand Side Almost Unlinked
Bitcoin has long abandoned hard drive mining, Ethereum has switched to PoS, mining hardly consumes SSDs or flash memory. SanDisk’s 99% revenue depends on AI data centers, cloud providers’ long-term contracts, and enterprise storage. Crypto mining demand has no impact on its performance; fundamentals are unaffected by crypto price fluctuations.
2. Capital Side Highly Linked (Most Critical)
Both belong to the same hot money pool and risk appetite indicator. When the Fed leans dovish and US Treasury yields fall, funds flow simultaneously into crypto and high-valuation AI storage stocks; once crypto investors collectively take profits and risk appetite cools, high-priced SanDisk will be sold off by short-term funds in tandem.
3. Special Key Point: SanDisk Has Become the Top Perpetual Contract Stock in Crypto Exchanges
SanDisk’s stock perpetual contracts have $1.73 billion open interest, far exceeding SpaceX and Micron, with trading volume second only to BTC and ETH.
Crypto’s 24/7 capital directly pulls SanDisk’s price around the clock. After US market close, crypto funds’ long-short battles directly affect the next day’s pre-market opening levels; crypto market sentiment overnight transmits into its price fluctuations.
2. Current Crypto Market Benefits Supporting SanDisk
1. Macro Liquidity Environment Improving Consistently
The root of this crypto rally: Fed minutes delaying rate hikes, US Treasury repo expansion, and a weaker dollar. This easing environment also supports valuations of Nasdaq tech and storage sectors. As long as BTC holds firmly above 68500 and crypto market avoids widespread panic selling, global risk capital won’t quickly exit growth tracks, preventing a stampede crash in SanDisk’s high price; dips will attract bottom-fishing funds.
2. AI + Web3 Narrative Resonance
Crypto recovery boosts decentralized storage sector (FIL and storage tokens heat up), market further recognizes the long-term logic of "compute power + storage power," indirectly reinforcing SanDisk’s AI storage valuation story and reducing concerns about a "storage cycle peak."
3. Overnight Liquidity Backstop
If unexpected minor tech negatives hit US markets overnight, as long as crypto remains stable, crypto perpetual contract arbitrage funds will limit SanDisk’s after-hours excessive sell-offs, preventing large overnight gap-down openings.
3. Current Crypto Market Risks Directly Limit SanDisk’s Rebound Potential
1. Crypto’s Short-Term Gains Overextended, Profit-Taking Could Withdraw SanDisk’s Short-Term Hot Money
BTC surged $5000 in two days, ETH rose several hundred points in one day, now in a high-level consolidation and profit-taking phase. Once crypto starts mass profit-taking and altcoins collectively fall, high-valuation, high-volatility SanDisk will fall faster than Hynix and Micron, with short-term momentum funds withdrawing immediately.
2. Capital Diversion Risk
If crypto later gains independent positive catalysts (Ethereum upgrade effects, regulatory easing), some tech short-term funds may leave storage sector to chase crypto assets, causing SanDisk to weaken alone despite a healthy sector.
3. Regulatory Expectations Are a Double-Edged Sword
US crypto regulatory easing benefits the crypto market, but if Congress later signals tightening crypto regulations again, crypto will plunge and overall tech risk appetite will cool rapidly, causing high-priced SanDisk to face immediate pressure and correction.
4. Market Plain Language Breakdown + Key Price Levels (Current Price 1577)
Key Support & Resistance
1. Intraday Short-Term Lifeline: $1570
Current price is just above this threshold; as long as it doesn’t break below $1570 effectively, supported by stable crypto market atmosphere, it will maintain consolidation; if broken, short-term bulls exit quickly, pushing price down to strong support at $1525~$1530 (recent consolidation bottom and key bull defense zone).
2. Mid-Term Iron Bottom: $1490~$1500 Range
Multiple August bounce platforms; as long as crypto avoids systemic collapse and Nasdaq doesn’t plunge, this range is hard to break in one go.
3. First Major Resistance: $1640~$1660
Previous consolidation center; to resume strong rebound, volume must increase and price must hold this range; above are heavy resistances at $1725 and $1775, dense trapped positions from recent highs.
Market Status
Last week fell back from above 1700, now in a high-level digestion phase after a big rally.
Daily chart still above mid-term moving average, overall trend intact; but hourly momentum is weak, now fully depends on two forces:
① US storage sector’s own NAND price increases and AI order fundamentals;
② Crypto market’s 24/7 capital sentiment.
If BTC is stable, SanDisk consolidates and slowly recovers; if BTC plunges, SanDisk immediately weakens under pressure.
5. Three Scenario Simulations (Combined with Crypto Market)
1. Highest Probability: Range-Bound Consolidation ($1530 — $1660 Tug of War)
BTC holds 68500~69700 range without big moves, crypto market slowly digests profits. SanDisk fluctuates slightly with existing funds, AI storage fundamentals support the bottom; lacking new inflows, it’s hard to break above 1700 strongly, mainly grinding to repair indicators.
2. Rebound and Rise Again
Requires two conditions simultaneously:
① BTC holds above 70000, crypto risk appetite heats up again, US Treasury yields continue falling;
② Storage sector collectively recovers, Micron/Hynix strengthen simultaneously. Only after holding above 1660 can it challenge 1725 resistance.
3. Deep Pullback Again
BTC breaks below 68500 starting a wave correction, crypto funds flee risk, Nasdaq tech weakens in sync. SanDisk breaks short-term support at 1570, further tests key support at 1525; if 1500 fails, a new mid-term correction begins.
Final Plain Language Summary
At price 1577:
Crypto’s easing environment helps hold the downside, preventing a one-sided crash; but crypto’s high-level profit-taking pressure limits short-term big gains.
Its fundamental price moves depend long-term on AI storage supply-demand, company buybacks, and long-term contracts; short-term intraday volatility must also watch BTC’s market mood.
Focus on two core dividing lines next:
Short-term strength/weakness: 1570; mid-term bull/bear boundary: 1525. In July 2025, the House of Representatives passed the bill with a high vote of 294 to 134. At that time, everyone thought it was secured. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee passed it bipartisanly with a vote of 15 to 9. Still solid. Then what? It stalled for a whole year. The bill got stuck at the full Senate vote. Tokenized stocks, stablecoin rewards, and the Trump family conflict of interest—three huge obstacles weighing it down. The House passed it, the committee passed it, but the full Senate couldn't pass it. On August 19, Trump couldn't sit still. He held a crypto summit at the White House, with Coinbase's Brian Armstrong, Gemini's Winklevoss brothers, and Ripple's CEO all attending. Trump directly said: "To keep the U.S. ahead of China, this bill must pass." Armstrong predicted on site: the cloture vote would be on September 18, and the bill could get over 60 votes. Trump also added: "This is very bipartisan, many Democrats support it." Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled the cloture vote for September 15 at 2:15 PM. The 60-vote threshold. The Republicans have only a slim majority in the Senate. To reach 60 votes, Republicans must have full attendance and pull at least 7 Democrats. And the obstacles are not over—moral clauses, stablecoin rewards, developer protections, three landmines. The biggest variable comes from the American Bankers Association (ABA). On August 19, ABA President Rob NicholsA 9–3 split at the FOMC is something I’d pay attention to. The final rate decision matters, but seeing three policymakers disagree tells us there’s clearly more debate happening inside the Fed than the headline decision might suggest.
Personally, I find the disagreement more interesting than the vote itself. If inflation, employment and growth were all pointing clearly in the same direction, you’d probably expect policymakers to be more aligned. A wider split suggests that some members are interpreting the risks differently and that could become important at the next few meetings.
For markets, I don’t think this automatically means bullish or bearish. What I’d watch is whether those three dissenters eventually convince more members to move toward their side. 3 votes can become 4 or 5 pretty quickly if the incoming data supports their argument.
That’s why I’ll be watching the next CPI, jobs report and Fed speeches closely. The market may be focused on what the Fed decided today, but I’m more interested in where the voting balance is heading next.
#FOMC9To3Split $BTC