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Today, Changxin Storage also surged explosively; those who shorted it on the exchange are truly fortunate.
That's why I say don't take stock trading for granted; how a company performs doesn't necessarily directly correlate with its stock price.
You think Changxin's market share isn't high and its revenue isn't particularly large, so you use SK Hynix as a benchmark to short it expecting big profits, but you didn't expect to become fuel yourself.
I said that now that such a giant has emerged domestically, the sentiment in the domestic stock market is high, even explosive, and the existence of a premium is reasonable.
We should go with the trend instead of always feeling like we're the only ones clear-headed, but I believe most friends haven't shorted it either, though this should serve as a warning.
Here are two phrases for everyone in the stock market: "I am greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy," and "I am even more fearful when others are fearful, and even greedier when others are greedy." ETF capital flows may determine the next moves of BTC and ETH
$BTC remains stable around $63K, while ETF capital flows continue to be a key market signal. Recently, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded about $390 million in weekly net outflows, and $ETH is also under pressure due to cooling ETF demand.
The bigger picture still deserves attention: the $ETH ETF attracted strong institutional demand in July, sometimes outperforming $BTC capital flows.
If ETF inflows return strongly, the current consolidation phase could become the launchpad for the next major rally. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Trump is about to "hold a meeting" for the crypto world again.
Next week at the White House, this crypto industry meeting will have big names like Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini directly attending, along with the CFTC chairman and several government officials. The Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary might even show up.
The focus isn't just on BTC.
Crypto assets, fintech, and AI—these three things will be discussed together at one table.
I think the signal this sends is very clear:
The U.S. is no longer debating "whether to embrace crypto," but rather how to truly integrate crypto, AI, and the financial system.
In the short term, I’m not so optimistic that BTC will take off directly because of this meeting.
But if policies on regulation, stablecoins, and RWA continue to advance afterward, the real big market move might not come from a single statement by Trump, but from the U.S. starting to reprice the entire crypto industry.
This time, it’s worth watching closely. $BTC NEAR AI staking surpasses 500,000 tokens in two weeks — AIx crypto sector still in exploration
NEAR AI launched its staking feature on July 30, allowing users to lock NEAR tokens to receive periodic AI computing quotas. Within two weeks of launch, the staked amount exceeded 500,000 tokens.
However, not all AIx crypto projects have been smooth. On August 5, Eliza Labs founder Shaw Walters announced the official "death" of the ai16z/ElizaOS token, and the related foundation will be shut down. This once highly anticipated "crypto xAI" pioneer has quietly ended.
Binance's compliant AI tool reportedly helped recover $60.2 million by 2026, intercepting billions in potential fraud — but this is unrelated to token prices.
The combination of AI and crypto is still in the early exploratory stage. NEAR's staking data shows real demand, while the death of ai16z indicates the bubble is also bursting. What this sector needs are real use cases, not narrative packaging. Fundamental Research Report $ONE / Harmony (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Harmony ($ONE) overall score 58/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Harmony (token $ONE), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on sharded cross-chain public chain. Competitors include ETH, ATOM. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): Circulating market cap: Harmony $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. FDV: Harmony $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Annual revenue: Harmony $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Harmony undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players.
Summary: fundamentals solid (score 58/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Judgments based on public data, not investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all, judge for yourself.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitOut of options? Bringing out dormant BTC as reinforcements
3.56 million BTC "dormant" hits a new high, accounting for 17.7% of circulating supply.
This data sounds impressive—once again waving the banner of "scarcity," but on closer thought, with all funds partying in the US stock market and BTC trading volume shrinking so much, no one is buying no matter how much is dormant.
This data, like the previous round of CPI hikes and consumer data, only provides the market with a new narrative angle. Scarcity is a long-term logic, but short-term price depends on liquidity—ETFs are flowing out, stablecoins are fleeing, and the siphon effect of US stock indices remains strong. No amount of dormant BTC can push the price.
Without new money coming in, scarcity is just a slogan—wait until the US stock market rests and funds flow back, then talk about scarcity again.
💤#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 SanDisk Long-Term Agreement Becomes the Focus, Today's Opening More Worth Watching for "Realization Strength"
After SanDisk's Investor Day, the market trading logic has clearly shifted from "short-term performance" to "long-term certainty."
The biggest highlight this time is SanDisk's announcement of the FY2028-FY2030 long-term financial framework: expected revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, adjusted gross margin around 80%, operating margin around 75%, and free cash flow margin around 50%. Meanwhile, the company stated it will return all remaining cash after investment business to shareholders. 
More crucially, the long-term agreements.
SanDisk has currently signed New Business Model agreements with 8 customers, with a total contract value of approximately $93.9 billion, including 3 large U.S. hyperscale data center customers; these agreements are expected to cover about half of bit shipments in FY2027 and about two-thirds in FY2028. 
This means the market is starting to reprice SanDisk:
Previously: storage cyclical stock.
Now: AI infrastructure + long-term contracts + high cash flow growth stock.
But today's opening is actually an important validation.
On Investor Day, SNDK rose about 13.7%, then continued to rise about 6.5% on Friday to around $1628. In other words, the long-term positive news has already been partially priced in by the market. 
So what’s really worth watching today is not "whether it can still rise," but:
After the positive news is realized, is there new buying interest in the market?
If the opening remains strong and volume expands in the process of rising, it indicates that capital recognizes not just short-term news but the company’s profit framework for the coming years.
If there is a high open followed by a decline, it means short-term profit-taking has begun, and the market may enter a phase of digesting valuation.
I am more focused on three signals:
① Whether the long-term agreements have converted into real revenue and cash flow.
The contract amount is large, but execution is what ultimately matters.
② Whether the 80% gross margin target can be maintained.
This is the core of the entire valuation restructuring. If future margins are significantly below target, the market may reprice it as a cyclical stock.
③ After the stock price rises, whether capital is still willing to chase.
Good fundamentals do not mean the stock price will rise every day. The biggest risk now has shifted from "performance not good enough" to "expectations too high."
In a nutshell:
SanDisk’s Investor Day clarified the long-term story, and the long-term agreements increased performance certainty; but today’s opening is the market’s first repricing of this story.
If it can hold steady and continue to expand volume after a high open, it shows high recognition from long-term capital; if it quickly plunges after a high open, beware of "positive news realization."
Therefore, I will regard today as a fundamental confirmation day, not simply a day to chase gains. $BTC #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证
Talking about this wave of long-term agreements from SanDisk, the community has been buzzing these past few days. Just yesterday, I was chatting with brothers in the group, debating whether this is real money or just hype. Today, after checking the data, wow—$93.9 billion floor price, $16.5 billion margin, weighted NBM agreements over four years—this isn’t just signing contracts, it’s basically rewriting the playbook for the storage industry.
The old storage game of "annual talks and repeatedly harvesting at cycle bottoms" is probably going to be overturned by this wave of long-term agreements. I skimmed Goldman Sachs’ report too; four original manufacturers simultaneously extended contracts to five years, squeezing buyer flexibility tight. SanDisk locked about 60% of FY27 and FY28 capacity, with floor price estimates guaranteeing at least $23 billion in annual revenue, which is even higher than the total revenue of the past four quarters. Simply put, they’ve welded the cycle bottom shut, raising the floor directly to the previous ceiling.
But honestly, $94 billion doesn’t mean cash in hand, and 80% gross margin isn’t the current real profit. Whether this can actually be realized depends on hard metrics like actual customer shipments, yield rates, and costs. One thing is certain—AI cloud providers are willing to pay a premium for stable capacity, and SanDisk sacrificed some upside for certainty in cash flow and capacity utilization.
Looking at the market now. SNDK’s TradFi Perp trading volume on platforms like OKX and Gate accounts for over 45%, and on Binance, one SNDK accounts for nearly 30% of TradFi Perp daily volume. After last week’s investor day, it surged 14% straight up, rebounding about 35% in a week. However, it also dropped 8% after hours when the market felt the guidance wasn’t explosive enough. The bulls and bears are battling fiercely; a whale added $15.55 million long positions near 1240. Technically, 1650 is a major resistance level, and volume has been shrinking recently. Some are looking to buy on a pullback to 1530, short if it breaks 1510; others think there’s limited room to chase longs or shorts here and prefer to wait for a pullback to 1450.
Personally, I think the long-term agreement logic is sound, but the market can be irrational sometimes. Whether this "Di King" rally is a fundamental revaluation or a short squeeze really depends on how it opens. Anyway, my position isn’t heavy; I kept some ammo to see how things go—missing out hurts less than losing money, but getting stuck is even worse, those who know, know.
Brothers, what do you think about this wave of SanDisk? Buy in or wait?
$SNDK This week, the crypto industry's attention was almost entirely focused on the White House meeting on August 19. According to multiple media reports, Trump is expected to attend in person and meet with executives from crypto and prediction market companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Chainlink, Kalshi, and Paradigm. Representatives from Kraken, Gemini, the NYSE, and Nasdaq were reportedly invited, with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig expected to be present. Why is this meeting so critical? Because the crypto industry's most valued market structure bill—the CLARITY Act—is already stuck in Congress's time wall. The core issue this bill aims to address is to clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC: which tokens qualify as securities, which are digital commodities, and who should the trading platform register with? The bill is not without progress. In July 2025, the House passed the CLARITY Act with 294 votes in favor and 134 against; On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced it to the full chamber by a vote of 15 to 9. U.S. House Voting Records, Senate Banking Committee However, once negotiations actually began, several key issues remained unresolved: first, how to restrict the president and other senior officials from profiting from crypto business through their positions;
Second, whether stablecoin rewards and yield products should be restricted;
Third, anti-money launderingInstitutional sentiment is quietly shifting, with ETH ETF relative inflows crushing BTC
According to the latest data from DWF Labs, based on fund size proportions, ETH spot ETF funds have clearly outperformed BTC since June.
During the market pullback in June, ETH ETF net outflows accounted for 4.65%, while BTC ETF reached 8.09%; with the market warming up in July, ETH ETF net inflows accounted for 3.19%, which is 9.4 times BTC's 0.34%, indicating a change in institutional allocation preferences.
As early as May, DWF commented that institutions generally showed low interest in ETH, with funds continuously weakening, but the trend has reversed in recent weeks. Note, this is a relative proportion; BTC's absolute fund size remains larger, representing an internal rebalancing of institutional positions rather than a wholesale abandonment of Bitcoin.
Fund tilting does not mean an immediate market breakout; price volume confirmation is still needed for the ETH/BTC ratio to strengthen. If the ETF net inflow trend continues, Ethereum has a chance to develop an independent rally; if outflows resume, it will still follow the broader market fluctuations.
What do you think about this round of fund rotation? Can ETH outperform BTC?Anthropic's IPO pricing model based on 2028 forward revenue is excessively over-leveraging the market's risk appetite for technology infrastructure spending. Wall Street anchors forward multiples by referencing SpaceX and Palantir, but GPU computing power and high training investments continue to squeeze short-term cash flow, with long positions already highly concentrated on forward realization. If forward revenue growth falls short of expectations or infrastructure costs drag down profit margins, the squeezed positions will face valuation downgrade risks. The key observation indicators are whether operating profit can reach $559 million in Q2 2026 and whether revenue quarterly growth can double.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 $MOONSHOT Compared to Zhipu, this one has lower revenue but its market value is already close to Zhipu. Neither of them is profitable, and Zhipu itself is already extremely overvalued, refer to my post in the Zhipu updates. The dark side of this month can at least be expected to drop by half. On the morning of August 17 Beijing time, Bloomberg reported that payment giant Stripe has finalized the acquisition of AI infrastructure startup OpenRouter (Easter egg: OpenRouter co-founder Alex Atallah, whose previous company was OpenSea). Although the acquisition amount is not as high as previously rumored $10 billion, it still exceeds $7 billion. Although the progress of this acquisition is no longer a secret and the market is familiar with the strategic alignment needs of both parties, once the deal was finally confirmed, a large amount of skepticism still emerged in the market. The core question is—Is OpenRouter really worth that much money? Odaily note: Million-dollar influencer and well-known investor Jason has also expressed confusion about the deal. After all, at the end of May this year, OpenRouter completed a $113 million Series B funding round and was still valued at "only" about $1.3 billion. Just over two months later, Stripe had to pay more than five times the real money. Meanwhile, OpenRouter's current revenue scale seems unable to support such high prices. The market estimates the platform's annualized revenue is about $50 million, and at the $7 billion acquisition price, this corresponds to an exaggerated price-to-sales ratio of 140 times. More importantly, the core business of OpenRouter is clearly visible$BTC 🔥 Is the Strait of Hormuz about to reopen? Iran says: The US must first fulfill its promises!
Just now, a senior official of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps dropped a "geopolitical bomb" — if the US fulfills the commitments in the "Islamabad Memorandum," the Strait of Hormuz will reopen! This statement came from the political deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Yadollah Javani, carrying significant weight.
$ETH It should be noted that this strait is a "choke point" for global crude oil transportation, carrying nearly 20 million barrels of oil daily. Since the escalation of geopolitical conflicts last year, Iran has repeatedly held military exercises and detained oil tankers in the area, effectively imposing a "semi-blockade" that has caused shipping insurance to soar and oil prices to fluctuate sharply. Now, Tehran has for the first time clearly stated the "conditions for lifting the blockade," effectively passing the ball back to Washington.
$OKB But the question is — what exactly does the "Islamabad Memorandum" include? Speculation suggests it involves the US relaxing some sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and even secretly restarting nuclear negotiations. The White House has not yet responded, but the market has already reacted — Brent crude briefly plunged 1.2% after the news broke, Bitcoin simultaneously rose slightly, showing a rare tug-of-war between risk-off sentiment and risk appetite.
For traders, the three key things to watch right now are:
1️⃣ Official US statements (will they catch the ball or leave it hanging?)
2️⃣ Shipping insurance quotes near the Strait of Hormuz (a real-time barometer)
3️⃣ Subsequent actual actions by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (talk vs. concrete proof) #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证
If the strait truly reopens, international oil prices could see a short-term pullback of $5-8, but if the US responds coldly, the geopolitical premium will quickly rebound. Regardless of bullish or bearish positions, make sure to fasten your seatbelt — every move in this waterway involves real money. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2#OKX $AAPL I hold a long position in AAPL at 305. The logic behind this trade is not chasing the rally but rather catching a recovery rally around the 300–305 support zone after the sharp drop following the earnings report.
At the end of July, AAPL peaked at 344.57, but after the earnings report, it plunged 7.35% in a single day, bottoming out at 300. Although it rebounded to around 316, on August 12 it again tested 300.57, and last Friday closed back at 305.93.
✔ The advantage of going long at 305 is that it’s not far from the key support at 300–302, making the risk level relatively clear. This area has seen two instances of buying support, indicating that funds are currently willing to step in.
✔ Apple's performance is actually not bad. Quarterly revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year; EPS grew 29% year-over-year, with iPhone, Mac, and services all setting June quarter records. The post-earnings drop was not due to a performance shock but because the market’s prior expectations were too high.
✔ The real pressure comes from the next quarter’s revenue guidance of 9%–11%, which is below market expectations, while rising storage costs and limited advanced chip capacity are squeezing profit margins. Last quarter’s gross margin was also boosted by tariff refunds, which cannot be repeated long term.
✔ Upcoming positive expectations mainly include new products in September, the foldable iPhone, and Apple Intelligence entering the Chinese market. However, these are still just expectations and require a price breakout to confirm market acceptance.
In the short term, watch resistance at 308–311; once stabilized above that, look at 313–316. A break above 316 could open the way for further recovery to 320–325, and in a strong scenario, possibly near 330.
If we continue to use my previous invalidation level near 299.4, the risk from 305 to 299.4 is about $5.6. With a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, the target should be at least near 322, which coincides with the upper resistance zone.
Therefore, the direction and position of this long trade are reasonable, but it is not yet an unconditional buy. I will not add to the position; I will hold above 300 and wait for recovery. If the daily chart breaks below 300 effectively, the logic of this support rebound will need to be reassessed.Unrealized loss of 210 million but refusing to cut losses: 18-fold dilution from half-year share issuance, is another US stock crazily imitating MicroStrategy?
Nasdaq small-cap stocks are pushing MicroStrategy's Bitcoin financial tactics to the extreme, even if their books are battered and bloodied.
According to the latest financial report for the first half of 2026 disclosed by Nasdaq-listed company GD Culture Group, its holding of 7,500 Bitcoins generated an unrealized floating loss of exactly $211.8 million in the past six months, which directly consumed 97.9% of the company's net loss during the same period.
In other words, the company's core business profit and loss is almost negligible, and the entire balance sheet has completely become an amplifier of Bitcoin volatility. But even facing more than $200 million in unrealized losses, the company still stubbornly refuses to sell a single core Bitcoin reserve.
Holding onto Bitcoin without selling seems very faithful, but what’s more intriguing is the fundraising trick behind it.
The financial report shows that after reverse stock splits adjustment, the company's total shares exploded to 4.1625 million shares in just half a year, reaching 18.15 times the amount at the end of 2025. In this crazy stock expansion, as much as 99.65% of the newly issued shares came entirely from issuing stocks to the secondary market in exchange for cash.
The underlying path of this operation is very clear: treating the company as a leveraged Bitcoin holding shell.
It doesn’t matter if the core business is unprofitable; as long as it can frequently issue shares in the US stock market to raise fiat currency, and then continuously buy Bitcoin with the real cash obtained, it can earn so-called net asset premiums in a bull market. But the cruelest cost of this approach is silently borne by retail shareholders in the secondary market. An 18-fold dilution in share capital over half a year means the equity per share held by old shareholders is ruthlessly diluted.
An even more dangerous hidden risk is the countdown of liquidity.
As of the end of June, the company only had $7.2 million in cash and $36.6 million in working capital on its books, which is expected to cover debt payments for only the next 12 months.
MicroStrategy can run this flywheel because it has a huge market cap, extremely low-interest convertible bond financing channels, and stable cash flow from its core software business. For small and micro-cap US stocks with fragile risk resistance, once Bitcoin enters a prolonged deep sideways market, or the secondary market is no longer willing to pay a premium for share issuance, these pseudo-MicroStrategy companies that rely heavily on stock dilution to survive are very likely to hit a liquidity iceberg when debts mature.
For ordinary investors, understanding the true quality of such corporate financials is crucial. Don’t blindly jump in to catch the falling knife just because the company holds thousands of Bitcoins. Buying these stocks often means buying not hardcore Bitcoin, but a paper certificate that could be diluted into worthless paper at any time by massive share issuance.
Seeing more and more small and mid-cap US stocks diluting their share capital by more than ten times to hoard Bitcoin, do you think this is a shortcut for retail investors to get into crypto assets, or a financial gimmick trap that could explode at any time?
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The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 这次巨亏主角是全球顶级高频做市商简街资本Jane Street，7月单月亏损约150亿美元，为2016年以来首次月度亏损 。即便亏掉这笔资金，该公司今年截至7月交易收入依旧超400亿美元，家底依旧雄厚，并不会直接出现倒闭风险。 亏损导火索来自它重仓投资的明星AI对冲基金Situational Awareness。该基金操盘手为前OpenAI研究员，上半年依靠最高4倍杠杆重仓存储芯片标的闪迪、美光，半年净值暴涨439%，规模冲到450亿美元，吸引大量机构资金入场，简街就是最重要投资方之一 。7月AI存储赛道集体杀跌，闪迪单月最大回撤超46%、美光下跌28.69%，高杠杆头寸触发保证金危机，只能折价甩卖持仓给城堡证券，简街这笔投资直接重创，叠加自身科技股头寸亏损，最终形成150亿月度巨亏。 这件事直接传导到加密市场的核心点，就是美股映射存储代币板块。SNDK、MU这类代币情绪高度绑定美股正股，此前存储赛道的拥挤交易风险已经被这次华尔街爆仓事件赤裸裸展示出来。今天$SNDK依旧逆势冲高，游资炒作热度还在，但机构已经在快速收缩AI赛道风险敞口，中长期赛道的不确定性大幅抬升。 放到整🪙 This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.
However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.
$BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.Stablecoins are becoming the underlying settlement network for the crypto market. But a commonly misunderstood phenomenon is that the massive amount of stablecoin transfers does not equal massive real spending payments. The latest data shows that since 2026, the cumulative adjusted settlement volume of stablecoins has reached $41.7 trillion, with single-day adjusted transfers exceeding $250 billion in some periods. What's even more noteworthy is that USDC's 'money speed' is completely different from USDT. 01|USDC: 741 turnovers in one year, USDT only 74 times. According to Talos data: USDC's annualized circulation rate: 741 times. USDT's annualized circulation rate: 74 times. USDC's turnover rate is about 10 times that of USDT, but USDT's market cap is still over $100 billion higher than USDC's. This means USDC is more like "high-frequency on-chain funds," while USDT is more like "widely distributed global digital dollars." USDC's high-frequency circulation largely comes from DeFi, arbitrage, and institutional settlement. USDT, especially on Tron, takes on more roles in platform fund allocation, deposits and withdrawals, and cross-border capital flows. 02 | 41.7 trillion USD, who is really spinning? Breaking down stablecoin transfers, an interesting fact emerges: a large volume of trading volume actually comes from "mechanical flows" within the crypto market. It mainly includes three categories: (1) Lightning周一亚洲时段比特币维持在63500美元附近，24小时小幅修复，但周线依旧收跌。 整个加密市场没有出现全面反弹，增量资金有限，行情变成典型的结构性抱团，强弱币种差距越拉越大。 📊ETF资金风向反转，机构短线兑现筹码 前一周比特币现货ETF连续5日净流入8.535亿美元，市场一片乐观。 仅仅一周行情变脸： 上周BTC现货ETF连续五个交易日合计净流出3.9亿美元，富达$FBTC单家流出1.53亿美元。 对比来看，以太坊ETF流出非常温和，仅净流出226万美元。 机构在BTC上面逢高止盈，对ETH并未大规模砸盘。 资金来回反复，也是BTC冲高6.5万上方之后，上攻动力衰竭的重要原因。 📈主流币种行情一览 BTC $63460｜24h +0.7%，7日‑2.3% 关键压力：65000‑66000美元，暂时未能收复 $ETH $1900｜24h +1%，7日‑0.8% $XRP 接近1美元｜7日‑2.8% $SOL $75.47｜7日‑1.4% $BNB $605附近｜7日+0.6% 市场总市值2.24万亿美元，BTC市值1.27万亿，市占率接近57%。 大饼托住盘面，但多BTCFi Strength and Weakness Watershed! STX Steady, CORE Hardcore, MERL Flexible, BABY Lurking
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article only outlines the track logic and technical architecture and does not constitute any investment advice
The Bitcoin ecosystem market continues to ferment, and many investors group STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY as similar assets. In fact, although all four projects are deployed in the BTCFi track, their underlying positioning, asset security models, and value development paths differ vastly.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Development Directions
STX (Stacks): Bitcoin Native L2 Pioneer
Stacks is one of the earliest players in the Bitcoin Layer 2 track, adopting PoX consensus and the dedicated Clarity programming language, enabling smart contract deployment without modifying Bitcoin’s base layer.
It builds a Bitcoin upper-layer DeFi ecosystem based on sBTC, with the Nakamoto upgrade enabling fast transaction confirmation. Its shortcoming is incompatibility with EVM, making developer ecosystem expansion more challenging, following a purely Bitcoin-native path.
CORE (Core DAO): Independent L1 Public Chain Building Bitcoin’s Power Grid
CORE is not a Bitcoin Layer 2 network but an independent Layer 1. It relies on Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, introducing idle Bitcoin computing power as a security foundation, and is fully compatible with EVM.
Its vision is to build the "Bitcoin Power Grid" BTCFi infrastructure, catering to retail BTC staking, focusing on advancing lstBTC institutional liquidity staking business, covering diversified financial scenarios such as lending, payments, and RWA.
MERL (Merlin Chain): Dedicated ZK Layer 2 Channel for Inscription Assets
MERL is a Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network, originally created to solve congestion and high gas costs on the BTC mainnet caused by BRC20 and Ordinals inscriptions.
It supports EVM adaptation, focusing on serving Bitcoin-native inscription asset trading and liquidity release. Market performance is highly tied to the inscription sector’s heat, with sector prosperity directly determining project profit potential.
BABY (Babylon): Bitcoin Shared Security Underlying Protocol
The most recognizable track. It does not carry various DeFi applications but serves as underlying staking middleware.
Users’ BTC does not require cross-chain or wrapping; it is stored long-term at Bitcoin mainnet addresses. Through cryptographic staking, it rents out Bitcoin’s top-level security capabilities to PoS public chains network-wide, pioneering a unique "security leasing" track.
2. Security Watershed: Hardcore Comparison of BTC Asset Custody Models
This is the most critical dimension for asset selection, with risk levels clear at a glance:
✅ BABY (Optimal Security Model)
BTC remains in native Bitcoin UTXO addresses, with no custody, no asset wrapping, and no cross-chain bridge risk, relying on cryptography for staking. It is currently the lowest trust-cost solution.
✅ CORE (Non-Custodial Model)
User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet CLTV time locks, with principal assets never leaving the BTC network; the only controversy is that staking data and reward information require relay nodes for cross-chain synchronization.
⚠️ STX (Consortium Signature Model)
Relies on sBTC for asset interoperability, with asset security tied to a decentralized signer consortium. Although penalty mechanisms exist, there is theoretically a risk of consortium collusion.
⚠️ MERL (MPC Custody Model)
User BTC is transferred into an MPC multisig custody pool, mapping to on-chain asset stMBTC. Native BTC leaves the mainnet, with asset security dependent on the custodian, posing counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Long-Term Revenue Logic Comparison
STX
Ecosystem interactions consume STX; staking tokens can earn BTC rewards, creating a BTC-denominated yield system, with value relying on sBTC ecosystem expansion.
CORE
Dual staking mechanism drives long-term token lock-up demand; fully entering the revenue era by 2026, generating cash flow from lstBTC institutional service fees, SatPay payment business, and on-chain fees, with plans to use revenue for buybacks.
MERL
Ecosystem fees and DeFi value-added services generate profits; the official policy is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for token buybacks. On-chain gas primarily uses BTC, with MERL mainly for node staking and community governance.
BABY
Core income comes from PoS public chain security leasing fees; tokens handle network gas and governance functions, with inflation rewards distributed to BTC stakers and BABY stakers.
4. Summary
STX: Conservative in the Bitcoin ecosystem, adhering to the native path, steady style, suitable for investors favoring BTC-denominated yields.
CORE: Comprehensive infrastructure player, independent public chain plus institutional narrative, deploying diversified Bitcoin finance with rich growth potential.
MERL: Flexible market asset, deeply tied to the inscription track, suitable for speculating on native asset cyclical markets.
BABY: Dark horse in underlying infrastructure, creating a differentiated track through extreme asset security, suitable for long-term lurking on underlying narratives.
In a bull market cycle, rather than simply chasing price fluctuations, distinguishing project underlying tracks and asset custody risks is the key to long-term survival.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi 💰 Did whales go long at the top of the local #BTC range?
Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance.
Spot and flow data still show no matching demand.1、$SNDK（闪迪） 现价1734.44美元，24小时成交额8.37亿USDT，热度断层领跑整个存储赛道，合约持仓量遥遥领先另外两个币种。受投资者日超高景气度指引刺激，正股机构目标价上调，日线走出连阳行情，但RSI6达到85.04已经进入严重超买区间，短期回调风险持续累积。短线压力1775‑1780，支撑1646‑1655。大量游资扎堆交易，美股休市时段极易走出脱离正股的独立脉冲行情。 2、$MU（美光科技） 日内跟随板块情绪震荡，24小时合约成交额仅3200万USDT，资金关注度只有SNDK的1/26左右。正股有机构上调目标价至1250美元，基本面利好充足，但币圈场内资金参与意愿偏低，走势几乎完全锚定美股正股，很少走出独立行情。上方压力995‑1000，支撑940。它属于赛道内的跟随型标的，只有板块全面爆发才会迎来弹性。 3、$SKHY（SK海力士） 三里面资金热度最低，成交活跃度偏弱。韩方本土存储涨价消息偶尔带来短期脉冲，但持续性很差，大部分时间被动跟随板块整体节奏。该代币缺少独立叙事，资金不会优先选择它作为进攻标的，更多是赛道情绪高潮后的补涨品种。上方压力156，支撑1Don't rush to ask when $BTC will surge? Let's break down the underlying logic behind a "surge" instead of guessing "which day":
1. Define "surge"
If it means "a 20% increase in one day," that usually requires a sudden liquidity shock (such as a black swan positive event, an emergency Fed rate cut, or a major country announcing $BTC as a strategic reserve). Such events are unpredictable and can only be waited for.
If it means a "trend-driven big rise" (for example, from 60,000 to 100,000+), it doesn't depend on "a certain day" but is a cyclical process. What is currently lacking in this process is not time, but narrative and capital support.
2. What are the current "roadblocks"?
· Halving effect dulling: Past surges after halving were due to supply-demand imbalance. Now, ETFs have long since priced in expectations, and although miner costs have risen, institutional market makers' hedging methods mean "supply shortage" no longer directly triggers price spikes.
· Macro liquidity constraints: $BTC is now a risk asset, not a safe haven. As long as the Fed does not clearly shift to rate cuts and release massive liquidity, big money (institutions) won't rush in to push prices up. They prefer to trade within ranges, profiting from volatility by buying low and selling high, rather than pushing prices up to help you break even.
· Chip structure: Currently, the 60,000-70,000 range accumulates huge trapped positions and profit-taking. For a surge, sufficient "turnover" must happen here first—shake out the undecided holders and transfer chips to strong hands or long-term holders. This process is painful and exhausting.
3. When might it "move"?
The real time points to watch are not "a certain day" but macro data turning points (such as sustained CPI decline, rising unemployment forcing the Fed dovish) and on-chain whale movements (when exchange $BTC balances show sustained large net outflows and stablecoin inflows surge).
Conclusion:
Don't ask "when," ask "if it doesn't surge now, what's your strategy?"
True surges often happen when most people stop asking "when will it surge"—because by then they are either fully trapped or have cut losses and exited, the market is pessimistic, and whales are quietly accumulating.
If you are currently out of position, dollar-cost averaging in batches is more reliable than waiting for "that surge day"; if you are fully invested, turn off the candlesticks and do what you need to do, because anxiety won't solve volatility and will only make you sell before the surge.
So, don't rush to ask, first ask yourself: if it doesn't rise in the next six months, can I hold on? If yes, the surge will naturally come; if not, even if the surge comes, you won't catch the top. That's the key. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 Long-term supply agreements are currently the core variable for market analysis of SanDisk's trend and the key basis for institutions to reshape company valuation logic. The opening rally will directly test capital recognition of the long-term contract value. 1. The Core Value of Long-Term Contracts Completely Changes Storage Cycle Logic SanDisk has signed new multi-year supply agreements with eight leading cloud providers, guaranteeing a minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, with an average contract period exceeding four years, and two-thirds of capacity locked in in advance for fiscal year 2028. Unlike traditional one-sided short-term orders, the new agreement sets price upper and lower limits, customer advance payments and default guarantees, binding both supply and demand sides. Even if NAND spot prices enter a downward cycle, the company can secure stable and guaranteed revenue, significantly smoothing out the strong cyclical fluctuations in the storage industry. At the same time, AI inference scenarios continue to see explosive demand for large-capacity NAND, cloud providers are actively locking up capacity to avoid shortages and price hikes, and the implementation of long-term contracts directly confirms the long-term demand for AI storage. 2. Market Divergences Decide Opening: Long-Term Agreements Secure Revenue Guarantee, Companies Shifting from Cyclical Stocks to AI Infrastructure Growth Targets, Coupled with Long-Term Guidance of 80% Gross Margin, Institutions like Bernstein Sharply Raised Target Prices, Bullish Bullish Logic: Long-term Revenue Guarantee Achieves Continued Valuation Increase. Bears worry: Long-term contract guaranteed minimum pricing is below current spot market price, compressing the elasticity of high forward gross margins; The stock price has surged significantly this year, fully realizing market expectations. If new orders from AI customers slow down and NAND prices fall, there will be pressure to slow down performance growth. III. Key Points for Observing the Market Opening 1. Volume: High open and volume increases, indicating capital recognitionBTC: The direction of capital flow determines the survival condition of a position. How much has the price already been priced in, with the possibility that long liquidations will come before a short squeeze? As demand for U.S. spot ETFs slows down, BTC remains around $63,000. During the same period, leverage in the derivatives market has been accumulating. This combination is a typical prerequisite for short-term volatility expansion. The issue is not the direction, but which position moves first at the current price range. Looking at capital activity, net ETF inflows have decreased, weakening the strength of spot buyers. On the other hand, open interest and leverage ratios in the futures market are trending upward. This means that at the same price level, spot demand has retreated while leveraged long positions have increased. As a result, if the $63,000 support level is broken, the path for liquidated orders to shift into additional selling pressure will open. This structure is not limited to BTC alone. ETH's direction depends on its relative strength relative to BTC. If the ETH/BTC ratio stabilizes or spot demandBitcoin’s headline supply figure may overstate the amount realistically available to trade. Onchain estimates place lost or dormant BTC near 3.56 million, or roughly 17.7% of circulating supply, though inactivity and UTXO age cannot distinguish lost keys from deliberate long-term holding.
The useful signal is therefore not a precise scarcity adjustment, but a reminder that effective float can be much tighter than issuance data suggests. Even so, dormant supply alone is not a price catalyst: ETF flows, onchain selling and macro risk appetite still determine whether constrained float matters at the margin. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTCDormantSupplyRecord$ETH — I’m holding a long from $1,878, but this isn’t a chase of the recent bounce.
The setup is based on repeated support around $1,865–$1,875.
After ETH was rejected above $1,900, price has been consolidating around $1,870–$1,890. Buyers are still appearing on dips, but the $1,895–$1,910 resistance zone hasn’t been decisively reclaimed.
So far, there’s no clear breakout confirmation.
✅ Why $1,878?
It’s close to short-term support, which gives the trade a relatively clear invalidation point.
⚠️ What’s the problem?
The broader market is still range-bound. BTC remains capped around $63K, while ETH spot ETF flows have cooled compared with the previous week.
So for now, I see this as support-based accumulation—not confirmation of a new uptrend.
I’m using 75× leverage, so risk management has to be extremely strict. I won’t stubbornly hold through major support levels such as $1,840.
🎯 Key levels:
• $1,865 → Short-term support / invalidation
• $1,895–$1,910 → Key resistance
• $1,920–$1,950 → Upside targets if breakout confirms
If $1,865 is the invalidation level, the risk from $1,878 is roughly $13.
With a 1:3 risk/reward, the minimum target is around $1,917, which sits close to the $1,920 resistance area.
I remain cautiously bullish, but not blindly bullish.
And with high leverage, one rule matters above everything else:
Stop loss must come before liquidation.
Being right about the direction means nothing if normal volatility wipes out the position first. 🫡
$ETH $BTC
NFA. DYOR.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp #AI bet setback, Wall Street trading giant loses $15 billion in a month
"Jane Street crashed, the 4x leverage pit doesn't discriminate between cheap or expensive"
Market maker giant Jane Street lost $15 billion in a single month, a first in ten years.
The one hitting it was AI prodigy Aschenbrenner's fund, using 4x leverage to bet on AI stocks, which collapsed in July and was sold off at a discount to Citadel.
Jane Street's position shrank from a peak of $10 billion to $3.5 billion, with a single loss close to $7 billion. What does 4x leverage mean? If the underlying drops 25%, the principal is wiped out. I know this formula well; two years ago, I blew up a position on a 4x leverage altcoin, it dropped 22% and triggered liquidation—I didn't sleep that night.
Partner Batty's internal memo left only one original sentence: "July was a bad month." Community members said, even giants who haven't lost in ten years have to sell at a discount; my liquidation that night wasn't shameful.
The signals I’m watching come next. Jane Street is negotiating with Pimco for a $11 billion private credit deal while issuing $14.6 billion in bonds to refinance, only then was the loss exposed. Top market makers deleveraging means one less machine to take the market's risk; when liquidity tightens, a stampede-style crash will come faster.
In the first seven months, Jane Street still earned over $40 billion, surpassing last year's full record; the $15 billion loss was just their so-called bad month. Retail investors losing principal means they're out. Now calculate your own leverage multiple and distance to liquidation; this is more useful than watching the prodigy. $BTC On-chain statistics show that about 3.56 million $BTC have remained unmoved for over ten years, accounting for 17.7% of the current circulating supply, setting a new record.
I always reserve some skepticism about the term "permanently lost" in this context.
Indeed, there are many real cases of lost private keys, forgotten passwords, or holders passing away. But to say nearly 20% is lost, I suspect the actual proportion is somewhat lower.
A more likely scenario is that a large amount of coins are deliberately cold-stored by their owners. It's not that they won't sell, but the timing isn't right; it's not that they've forgotten, but they're just too lazy to move them; it's not that they lack goals, but the goals are still far off.
Regardless of the reasons behind it, the market outcome is clear:
The actual tradable BTC is much scarcer than the on-paper circulating amount.
In such a pool where supply is continuously tightening, even a slight ripple in demand can cause significant waves. This is the most fundamental support for BTC's price elasticity.
So what this data truly indicates is not "how many coins are permanently lost," but rather—the ammunition available to bears is far less than what panic narratives suggest.
Scarcity is not an emotional slogan; it is a cold, hard on-chain fact.
Long-term funds remain steadfast, naturally drying up short-term chips; the narrower the supply, the lower the threshold for price increases.
Of course, this doesn't mean there will be a price surge tomorrow. But at least, this indicator gives me more confidence in the long-term narrative.
The real hardcore factor has never been stories, but the supply curve.
$SNDK
$ETH
#闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 Many people wait for the altcoin season but overlook one fact: Meme may have already become the biggest sentiment indicator in the Crypto market.
And $DOGE is the most special presence within this indicator.
Why?
Because BTC reflects institutional sentiment.
ETH reflects on-chain financial demand.
SOL reflects high-risk trading demand.
And DOGE more so reflects whether ordinary users are willing to re-enter the market.
When DOGE starts to become active, it usually means market risk appetite is rising.
Because many people buying DOGE are not researching technical routes.
What they are buying is:
The market is back.
Everyone is making money again.
Sentiment is rising again.
This is what makes Meme assets special.
They are not value investments in the traditional sense.
They are more like a sentiment thermometer in the financial market.
Of course, a thermometer cannot decide the weather.
DOGE rising does not mean all Crypto will rise.
The Meme craze may also just be short-term speculative capital.
So the truly smart approach is not to chase DOGE just because it is rising.
But to understand the signal behind it.
If BTC rises, stablecoins increase, SOL is active, and DOGE also starts to surge.
This may indicate that risk capital is fully returning.
But if only DOGE surges alone and the rest of the market does not respond, it is more likely just localized sentiment.
DOGE’s greatest value may not be to become some kind of payment tool.
But to tell the market:
Is everyone willing to take risks again?
#DOGE #Bitcoin #SOL #Crypto #Meme #欧易星球 Currently, from the four-hour level perspective of the main Bitcoin chart, it shows a structure of gradually rising lows, but the trading volume remains sluggish, indicating insufficient momentum for a rebound. At present, 63250 forms a short-term boundary between bullish and bearish trends; holding above this level would shift the structure to bullish, while resistance here would lead to further downward testing of support. Liquidity is extremely low right now, with a notably strong sell wall around 63000 suppressing the price. Subsequent breakthroughs above 63500 should be followed up cautiously, while on the left side, one can consider light positions around 62500 on a pullback. Ethereum's overall trend is clearly weaker than Bitcoin's, with significant selling pressure near 1900. Next, if the pullback does not break the 1870-1880 range, one can consider entering long positions targeting around 1930. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 $BTC $ETH #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound?
#BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention
The digital asset conference starting tonight will likely generate many trending phrases over the next two days. Some talk about $BTC, some about regulation, and others about market structure. The market may react first to a single sentence, with the full context usually arriving a few minutes later.
The most familiar scenario in trading circles: first get excited by a screenshot, then realize it was just a personal suggestion; first treat "discussion" as "approval," then wait for the official document to correct it.
This time, let's try the opposite. For any policy news, first find the original text, authority, and effective date. Without a signed document, let it remain blank for now. 🔥The valuation paradigm in the storage industry is being restructured: Long-term agreements (LTA)/NBM are rewriting the cyclical pricing logic
In the past, storage was a strongly cyclical asset with valuation anchored to PB;
With the widespread adoption of long-term lock-in orders by cloud providers, profit volatility has been significantly smoothed, and the valuation system is gradually shifting to a PE growth framework.
Key points:
✅ Long-term contract volume lock + floor price protection weaken spot price shocks, improving profit visibility
✅ SanDisk's NBM long-term agreements cover over 1/3 of FY27 capacity, with potential to exceed 50% in the long term
✅ Financial realization: SanDisk's gross margin rebounded from 30% to 71.47%, completing a profit turnaround
Current valuation comparison
SanDisk SNDK: PE 21.39x
SK Hynix SKHY: PE 11.06x
⚠️Risk warning
The market has already priced in the valuation shift narrative; continuous monitoring of long-term agreement fulfillment risk is needed, and caution is advised for profit-taking after the realization of favorable market expectations.
#SNDK #SKHY #StorageChips #AIStorage #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 I believe SanDisk's current market value is severely overestimated, with the core risk lying in the questionable credibility of the AI storage narrative, compounded by controversies over technical integrity that are shaking market confidence. Although the company disclosed a $9.39 billion long-term agreement, the floating pricing clause in the agreement means revenue still follows market prices and does not truly lock in profits. What makes me even more cautious is that its flagship HBF technology was accused during the investor day of deliberately undervaluing competing HBM parameters and concealing write endurance defects; this selective comparison has sparked widespread skepticism in the tech community. From the financial data, an 84.6% gross margin is unprecedented in the storage industry, entirely driven by a 1298% year-over-year surge in data center business. Once Samsung and SK Hynix release new capacity, causing a supply-demand reversal, the gross margin retracement will be extremely severe. Compared to peers like Micron with a 15x PE, SanDisk's 32x forward PE premium is too high, and the DCF model even suggests a target price of only $372. I once bought storage stocks at the 2025 peak and personally experienced the halving losses brought by the cycle reversal. Now seeing SanDisk package its valuation as a "meal ticket for the next five years" makes me even more cautious—the real moat is the technological barrier, not just a contract. I recommend closely watching whether bit shipment volume in 2027 can replace price hikes as the main growth driver, and whether HBF technology can truly break HBM's monopoly after commercialization. Don't be swayed by short-term narratives; the lessons from cyclical stocks are always worth remembering. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 Damn, volatility has dropped to the lowest point since the 2022 bear market bottom.
The last time it was this quiet, $BTC went from 15,000 to 126,000. ADX has fallen to its lowest in over two years, and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed almost into a single line.
André Dragosch puts it bluntly — volatility is at a historically low range, and mean reversion will only push volatility higher. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the more violent the breakout will be. Glassnode also said this is one of the cheapest periods to buy volatility in years.
But someone is quietly making moves.
ETFs had a total net inflow of $1.1 billion last week, ending the net outflow trend since 2026.
BlackRock alone accounted for 80%. From August 3 to 7, they moved $850 million, with BlackRock taking $693 million.
Institutions are buying, retail investors are scared. Whales are also grabbing — since mid-June, wallets holding over 100 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 54,000 BTC. Whales are accumulating, small fish are fleeing.
BTC at 63,000, placed at the lowest volatility point in 2022 — those who bought then have now made 4x profits.
Not telling you to go all in, but this level is worth a second look.
Buy in batches around 63,000, add more if it falls below 60,000. Just wait for the wind to come.Nowadays, those chasing high and those who truly make money never focus on the same candlestick. Have you ever wondered why, every time in the middle of a bull market, people keep shouting "This time is different," only to find the tide and not even their underwear? In the past couple of days, I have thoroughly examined on-chain data and discovered an counterintuitive truth: what truly determines whether a project can weather bull and bear markets is not the frequency of candlestick movements, but four hard bones—the depth of capital accumulation, reasons users stay, whether developers are still coding, and whether the protocol itself is profitable. Let's start with a detail that's easy to overlook. Many people call ETH an "antique," but the stablecoin scale it carries on its chain has already reached $147 billion. What does that mean? It's like an invisible underground dollar clearinghouse, silently processing massive volumes of transactions every day. People can mock its gas fees, but no one can bypass its status in settlement. Now, let's look at the broader market. The total market supply of stablecoins has quietly surpassed 300 billion, and no matter how much the price fluctuates, the veins of the US dollar on this chain are only getting thicker. What does this indicate? Qian hasn't left; he's just looking for a more stable foothold. As for high-value public chains like SOL and SUI, no matter how attractive they look on paper, they're just a ticket to entry. What the market really asks is: how many real users and real contract revenue can you turn into speed? The on-chain volume manipulation trick can trick people in a bull market, but in a bear market, it can't even fool yourself. My judgment is that this stage is more like a mid-to-backcourt game in a bull market—it's not the time to blindly rush in. Long-short logic#SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard 13F Holds Heavy Positions
The latest institutional holding data has surfaced, showing top capital flocking to SpaceX. Harvard Asset Management has bet over half of its public portfolio on this stock, and NVIDIA has made a significant entry, joining giants like Google and BlackRock in holding positions. This clearly indicates capital's confidence in its long-term growth potential. Multiple institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but are optimistic about the company's three main growth drivers: Starlink's continuous expansion of global communication services, providing stable cash flow; Starship's iterative cost reduction, supporting moon missions and commercial launch orders; combined with NVIDIA's synergistic layout in space computing power, unlocking new growth in the AI field. In the long term, lunar infrastructure will further broaden growth boundaries. $NVDA
Risks also objectively exist. After listing, original shares will gradually be unlocked, and the highly concentrated chip structure will face liquidity tests. If some early investors choose to exit, it will bring phased selling pressure.
In terms of market performance, $SPCX surged after listing and then entered a consolidation range. In the short term, institutional support prevents deep pullbacks, but there is obvious resistance at previous highs. If subsequent positive factors such as Starship test flights and computing power business implementation materialize, the stock price is expected to break upward out of the range; however, if volume expands during the unlocking phase but the price stagnates, it will likely trigger a round of valuation digestion. Previously, hesitation and observation during the stock's low range prevented positioning, but now with institutional cards clear, chasing at high levels is not advisable. Waiting for fundamental progress and the unlocking window's performance before taking action is a more prudent strategy. Coldcard vulnerability leads to theft of 1,778 BTC — the "security illusion" of self-custody collapses
Galaxy Research confirmed that a Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability has resulted in theft from over 8,600 addresses, with losses totaling 1,778.84 BTC (approximately $112.7 million). Galaxy has directly contacted 190 victims.
The biggest suspicion: among the 153 stolen addresses, 132.95 BTC remain, and researchers have yet to reproduce the seeds behind these addresses. It cannot be ruled out that the attacker obtained undisclosed private device data.
Meanwhile, the tx cross-chain bridge was attacked on August 9, with the attacker stealing nearly 200,000 XRP (about $200,000) through 94 transactions within 97 minutes. The vulnerability stemmed from a combination of a relay error and the DefaultRipple feature of the XRP Ledger.
The hardware wallet vulnerability strikes at the core belief of "self-custody." The private key is yours, but the tool generating the private key itself has flaws. This security crisis may accelerate the adoption of institutional-grade custody solutions rather than retail investors' self-awareness.U.S. federal regulators have issued a banking license to the Trump family's stablecoin.
On August 14, the OCC conditionally approved the national trust bank charter for World Liberty Trust. The $4 billion market cap USD1 issuance and custody will gradually be moved from BitGo to their own bank.
The threshold is high: $20 million capital, an internal audit head, and if the bank doesn't open within 18 months, the license will be revoked. No deposit-taking, no lending allowed.
Senator Warren has publicly condemned this as a conflict of interest. Stablecoins entering the federal banking system shows Washington's stance is faster than market expectations. I think regulatory consolidation has begun.Macro Background: Positive Factors Are Dulling
The US July CPI year-on-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, and retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.6% month-on-month, which theoretically should boost expectations for rate cuts. However, after BTC briefly broke above 64,000, it did not sustain and instead fell back to 63,000 — positive macro data is no longer effectively stimulating risk appetite.
The core reason lies in energy prices reintroducing input-driven inflationary pressure. The IEA downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2026, combined with supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil rose about 5.9% weekly to $88.52. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma of "growth cooling but inflation still above target," with the 10-year US Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.70%.
Additionally, the Fed has no intention of cutting key interest rates in 2026, meaning macro liquidity is unlikely to turn accommodative in the short term.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $BTC longs 📈
Nice move back toward my entry, so I’ve de-risked half the position around $63.7K. This level is significant and may take some time to break cleanly.
Strong candle off the lows today, but there’s an interesting shift happening in open interest (OI).
OI built up throughout the day and is now starting to unwind. At the same time, some fresh longs are entering near the highs, keeping OI elevated.
$63.6K is an important intraday level, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rejection or even a move back toward the lows before a genuine breakout develops.
So what’s my approach?
I’m not closing the entire trade and trying to re-enter, and I’m definitely not opening a short against my long just to hedge a few candles.
Instead:
➡️ De-risk half near resistance
➡️ Keep the remaining position
➡️ Look to add back near the lows if the setup returns
This allows me to gradually improve my entry while maintaining conviction—and without taking unnecessary risk.
Simple, disciplined, and based on what the market is showing right now. 🫡
$BTC #SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp $BTC
Today's Market
The second test this weekend that was mentioned on Friday... only came before the CME opening at midnight...
At the same time, the second test area is also where the short positions got trapped on Friday's spike
See Figure 1
(trapped short positions = price returning to break even and close = support)
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From OI perspective (Figure 2)
The aggressive short wave from last Friday has mostly played out...
The movement from weekend to Monday Asian session basically still meets expectations...
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From symmetry perspective (Figure 3)
The weekend did not hit a lower low than Friday, this -4.57% wave still aligns with the symmetry expectations of the past month.
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From order book perspective (Figure 4)
Currently still limited by contracts as on Friday. The sell orders above are still hanging around 63.7k. The concentrated sell orders below remain under 62.5k.
So just now reaching 63.7k is basically the previous low-long TP1..
Spot market currently below 62k also has dense grid order demand.
With the recent sluggish volume, it’s hard to break below without some event.
To be continued 📈 U.S. Markets & AI Trade Update
U.S. equities moved higher, with $SPX +0.2% and NDX +0.6%, as technology stocks led the advance.
The AI theme remained strong after Anthropic’s Q2 revenue reportedly surged 14× year over year, reinforcing expectations that AI-related spending remains resilient.
Meanwhile:
• 📉 10-year Treasury yields and oil prices edged lower
• ₿ Bitcoin, gold, and silver moved higher
• 📊 September Fed hike odds fell to around 30%, following last week’s weak retail-sales data
• 💾 Korean chipmakers and U.S. tech-hardware stocks gained in pre-market trading on strong AI demand
S&P 2026 EPS estimates have climbed to around $362, representing roughly 30% YoY growth. At current valuations, that implies a forward P/E near 21.6×, roughly matching the 10-year Treasury yield—a valuation relationship not seen since early 2024 and, before that, the 2000 internet bubble.
Despite the strength in AI and tech, I remain cautious on $TSLA .
Forward earnings estimates continue to weaken, competition in autonomous driving is intensifying, and the valuation remains elevated.
Strong AI demand is supporting the broader tech trade, but high expectations leave little room for disappointment. 👀
NFA. DYOR.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp Global M2 has broken 135 trillion, a historic high, yet $BTC is still stuck at 63,000
According to historical patterns, BTC should be around 180,000 by now. So what happened? It dropped nearly half. Starting from Q4 2025, M2 rose by 12%, BTC fell by 12%, moving completely in opposite directions. The 8-year correlation has been completely broken
Who exactly is manipulating the market?
The US dollar is too strong. M2 is a slow variable — expansion takes months to transmit to risk assets. The dollar strength is a fast variable — liquidity can be drained in a few days. The dollar index rose 2.35% in a single month, while M2 only increased 1.25%, meaning the tightening speed is four times faster than expansion. One day of dollar rise wipes out a month of M2 growth
AI is grabbing money, US stocks are partying, BTC is being drained. Funds are rushing into AI and tech stocks, while the crypto space is left out.
Someone is causing quantitative panic.
The founder of Capriole Investments said this is the first time BTC has decoupled from M2 — because the risk of quantum computing breaking BTC encryption in 2025 has become a “non-zero probability.” The market is starting to price in this risk
But Fidelity spoke a hard truth — with the global monetary easing cycle starting and the Fed’s QT ending, M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which is bullish for BTC. Historically, every divergence has been resolved through price increases. Buying near the 200-week moving average yields a median return of 113% after one year
In short, the M2 model isn’t dead, it’s just temporarily malfunctioning 🚨 Ethereum’s July capital inflow ratio was 9.4× Bitcoin’s. So why are institutions suddenly buying $ETH ?
According to data cited by DWF Labs, Ethereum spot ETFs have significantly outperformed Bitcoin on a Flow-to-AUM basis since June.
The contrast is striking:
📉 June:
$ETH ETF net outflows = 4.65% of AUM
$BTC ETF net outflows = 8.09%
📈 July:
$ETH ETF net inflows = 3.19% of AUM
$BTC ETF net inflows = 0.34%
That means Ethereum’s relative capital attraction was roughly 9.4× Bitcoin’s in July.
So what changed?
One possible explanation is valuation + capital rotation.
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant hedge-fund basis-trading capital. As the futures/spot spread compressed toward much thinner returns, some of that fast-moving capital naturally became less aggressive.
Ethereum, meanwhile, spent months underperforming, with the ETH/BTC ratio pushed toward historically depressed levels. That weakness may have created a more attractive entry point for longer-term allocators.
There’s another important shift: the type of capital entering ETH may be changing.
Institutional investors are increasingly looking beyond simple price appreciation toward Ethereum’s broader economic model—staking yield, network activity, DeFi, tokenization, and Layer-2 settlement.
That could gradually change the narrative from:
“Ethereum is outdated.”
to:
“Ethereum may be undervalued relative to its long-term utility.”
Of course, one month of relative flows doesn’t guarantee a sustained trend. The real question is whether this capital rotation continues.
If institutions keep favoring ETH over BTC on a relative basis, could $ETH finally begin a meaningful ETH/BTC recovery in the second half of the year? 👀
Or is this simply a temporary valuation catch-up?
DYOR. NFA.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp #BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention #Crypto valuation shifts to income, how is BTC priced?
When the market is flat, an on-chain metric quietly broke a record.
The amount of Bitcoin mined and lying in wallets for over a certain number of years—the dormant supply—has reached a historic peak again.
What does this mean?
It means more and more BTC is locked in cold wallets, untouched for several years.
This is not the kind of coins flipping around in trading pools; these are truly withdrawn from the circulating supply.
My first reaction was the opposite—if supply decreases, shouldn’t the price go up?
But today BTC is still hovering around 63,000, with gains barely hitting 1%.
Why? I analyzed it.
The key is not the stock but the flow.
Dormant supply rising indicates more hoarding and fewer sellers, so selling pressure is indeed lighter.
But on the other side, ETFs have had net outflows these days, stablecoins are moving out, and no new incremental funds are coming in.
One side is holding back from selling, the other is waiting and watching; these two groups are doing their own thing, so the price is stuck in limbo.
The data is real, but it points not to an immediate price surge, but to a signal of stockpiling.
The safest way for this kind of asset is to wait for some external trigger to ignite it.
My view is, observing it doesn’t mean you should buy it; scarcity is the foundation, but activation still needs fresh capital.
Hold a light position at the current price, wait for signals, don’t rush to be the bag holder.
$BTC $ETH #DormantSupply #CryptoValuationMany traders like to focus on ETF net inflow data, thinking that institutions are making a big move when they see inflows. Here, it's important to avoid this misconception.
Many ETF inflows are not long-term allocation funds, but rather internal institutional adjustments and arbitrage funds. These funds have no long-term holding plans and are very frequent in and out in the short term.
Distinguishing the funding styles of BTC and ETH ETFs:
BTC ETFs offer more retirement and allocation funds, with very restrained operations, buying in batches on pullbacks and not chasing big rallies;
ETH ETFs are mainly for short-term trading capital and have stronger speculative attributes. If the market weakens, redemption speeds are much faster than BTC.
Everyone must remember one key point: just because you have money to buy an ETF doesn't mean the price will definitely rise.
If selling pressure in the spot market surges simultaneously, ETF buying will be directly offset, resulting in capital inflow and a stagnant market.
Here's a simple way to distinguish genuine and fake increments:
Don't look at single-day pulse inflows; focus on tracking whether you can maintain stable net inflows for several consecutive days. A large inflow in just one day has very low reference value. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? The Fed kept interest rates in the 3.50–3.75% range at its July meeting. The market is now specifically awaiting the FOMC minutes on August 19 and then the Jackson Hole on August 27. But there is a rather interesting problem: AI can both help increase productivity and cause inflation. Huge investment in AI is dragging on demand: GPUs, power servers, data centers, building materials, components Some analysts estimate that AI could contribute about 0.4 percentage points to US inflation in 2026. Crypto impact: 🔴 If AI makes the economy hotter than expectedSNDK's surge last week was the result of investors' daily guidance exceeding expectations + AI storage narrative + market FOMO sentiment resonance. The biggest contradiction at today's opening is: long-term institutions re-pricing value vs. massive short-term profit-taking.
Most likely path: a high open before the market opens, followed by a brief surge at the opening and then entering intense volatility, with intensified long-short battles. If the opening volume fails to hold the high level, be cautious of a pullback first; only under the premise of a strong sector and effective absorption of selling pressure will the short squeeze continue. $SNDK