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Choppy markets are the most frustrating and the greatest test of patience. When the direction is unclear, patience is the best strategy. Wait for the market to find its own direction, wait for the market's answer to naturally emerge. Trends never disappear; they just need time to develop. If you can endure this chaotic period, you will naturally witness the moment when the flowers bloom. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $OKB prey showed signs of fatigue at 108.26, pulled the trigger, entered a 20x short position. Waiting for it to fall to 98.61 is an exercise in extreme focus and patience. The +178.27% figure is just paper wealth; securing the break-even point is the first step to locking in profits. I am not greedy for further declines; I only care about the absolute safety of my principal. Put away the hunting rifle, quietly wait for the trend to continue or a turning point to appear, and leave the rest to time. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Title: US Treasury yields break 4.75%! The global asset pricing anchor is being reassessed, how will BTC respond? $BTC $ETH $SNDK Dear crypto friends, today we must discuss a major macroeconomic data point: the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.75%, the highest level since January 2025. Why has the US Treasury yield suddenly spiked so sharply? Behind this are three resonating forces: First, geopolitics and inflation: Middle East conflicts have pushed up oil prices, inflation expectations have heated up, and the market is beginning to reprice the Fed's rate hike risks. Second, the Fed's "communication mishap": the new chair Wash has weakened forward guidance and reduced policy transparency, causing the market to lose its interest rate pricing anchor, forcing investors to demand higher risk compensation. Third, supply-demand imbalance: the US fiscal deficit is high, Treasury issuance has expanded, and tech giants are issuing large-scale debt for AI infrastructure, competing with Treasuries for long-term capital, further pushing yields higher. What does this mean for the BTC we hold? US Treasury yields are the "anchor" for global asset pricing; their rise is a real pressure on risk assets: Valuation compression: as the denominator in the DCF valuation model, rising risk-free rates directly suppress valuations of high-valued assets like BTC. Opportunity cost: when risk-free yields approach 5%, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC rises sharply, and capital may prefer allocation to fixed income assets like Treasuries. Liquidity tightening: high yields attract international capital back to dollar assets, creating a liquidity siphon effect on global risk assets. Conclusion: In the short term, BTC needs to absorb the pressure from tightening macro liquidity. But against a backdrop of a weak dollar, BTC’s bottom support still exists. What do you think about this surge in US Treasury yields—will BTC first dip down or consolidate sideways? Feel free to discuss in the comments! #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $SNDK 1. Comprehensive Breakdown of News (Bullish and Bearish Separately) Core Bullish Factors (Foundation of this Rally, Support Below) 1. Investor Day Long-Term Value Reassessment, Completely Shedding the Cyclical Storage Stock Label On August 13, Investor Day presented solid mid-to-long-term targets: mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth for fiscal years 2028-2030, a gross margin target of 80%, and full cash repurchase of operating surplus to reward shareholders. At the same time, signed long-term capacity agreements with 8 major customers, locking in over half of shipments in 2027 and two-thirds of capacity in 2028, smoothing concerns over NAND price cycle fluctuations. Institutions directly define it as an AI infrastructure growth stock rather than a traditional flash memory cyclical stock. 2. Industry Supply-Demand Tightness + Continuous Fermentation of AI Storage Essential Demand Global NAND flash supply continues to tighten, with AI large model inference and KV caching driving explosive demand for enterprise SSDs; Elon Musk publicly stated "storage is the biggest bottleneck for AI development," boosting valuation across the entire storage sector. Micron and Western Digital also strengthened simultaneously, powering a strong sector rally. 3. Earnings Significantly Exceed Expectations, Fundamental Strength Realized Early August quarterly earnings far exceeded expectations, with a single-quarter gross margin reaching 84.6%, data center business revenue soaring 1298% year-over-year, the company cleared all debt and holds large cash reserves, fundamentally transforming profitability; multiple investment banks including Goldman Sachs raised target prices to $2200, institutional funds continue to increase positions to support the base. 4. Marginal Macro Environment Benefits Market bets on rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, easing valuation pressure on growth tech stocks, Nasdaq overall remains stable, providing macro support for high-valuation Sandisk. Bearish Suppression (Limits on Large Gains, Short-Term Pullback Risks) 1. Huge Short-Term Gains, Valuation at High Levels, Strong Profit-Taking Pressure Up over 650% in 2026, more than 35% gain in just one week, many low-cost holders have substantial profits, price surges trigger profit-taking pressure, making continuous volume-driven rallies difficult. After-hours yesterday surged to 1827 but weakened significantly, funds started to take profits in batches. 2. Uncertainty in Achieving Mid-to-Long-Term Targets 80% ultra-high gross margin and long-term high growth depend on sustained AI capital support and stable fulfillment of major customer long-term contracts. If downstream tech companies reduce AI investment or storage supply expands later, performance targets are easily falsified, and institutions may face concentrated rating downgrades anytime. 3. Market Correlation Risks US tech leaders (Nvidia, etc.) recently weakened with volatility, tech sector sentiment cooled; the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting and Fed officials’ speeches may trigger sharp US market fluctuations, causing high-volatility Sandisk to fluctuate in sync. 4. Historical Overhang Resistance Above During the previous June high of $2354 decline, a large amount of trapped shares accumulated in the $1830-$1900 range; every rebound to this range faces selling pressure from unlocking positions, directly suppressing upward space. 2. Technical Analysis of the Chart (Current Price $1688) Key Price Levels - Immediate Short-Term Support: $1670 (Fibonacci 0.5 key level of this rebound, intraday volume concentration area) - Strong Support Range: $1630-$1650 (20-day moving average, lifeline of this uptrend, breaking below means short-term strong rally phase ends) - First Resistance Level: $1750-$1780 (Yesterday’s closing position, short-term trapped shares concentration area) - Mid-Term Strong Resistance: $1835-$1840 (0.618 golden retracement level, biggest pressure point of this rebound) Chart Status 1. Daily Level: Price firmly above all mid-to-long-term moving averages, large-scale uptrend intact; but RSI entered overbought zone earlier, after peaking the indicator turned down, upward momentum clearly weakened, transitioning from a one-sided rally to high-level consolidation digesting profit-taking. 2. 4-Hour Level: Short-term moving averages gradually flatten from bullish divergence, volume shrank significantly compared to previous large-volume rallies, upward attack momentum insufficient; $1670 support repeatedly tested, if held, consolidation continues, if volume breaks down, a phase pullback will start. 3. Current Structure: Strong rebound started from late July low of 998, representing oversold recovery plus news-driven valuation re-rating; $1688 is mid-rebound consolidation, no longer a one-sided blind rally, bulls and bears clearly battling. 3. Three Possible Trend Scenarios 1. Highest Probability: High-Level Range Consolidation Hold $1670 support, oscillate between $1670-$1780 to digest short-term profit-taking, await Jackson Hole meeting, new storage industry price data, and major customer order news before choosing direction; mainly consolidation with small ups and downs. 2. Restart Uptrend (Necessary Conditions) Storage sector collectively warms, US market avoids sharp drops, volume breaks and holds above $1780, then further attack $1835 resistance, testing $1900 psychological level. 3. Short-Term Pullback and Consolidation Effective volume break below $1670 and close below $1650 key moving average support, short-term rebound phase ends, pull back to $1580-$1600 prior platform support for deeper price repair. Summary Current price $1688 is in a high-level consolidation after a big rally. Long-term logic from news (AI storage + long-term contracts locking performance + shareholder returns) remains intact, limiting downside space; but short-term overextended sentiment, rich profit-taking, and high valuation firmly cap upside. No need to bet on one-sided moves next; focus closely on $1670 support and $1780 resistance as key dividing lines, while paying special attention to Fed policy signals from Jackson Hole meeting and overall storage sector sentiment changes. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 This signal is quite important, and it cannot simply be understood as "the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates" right now. On August 18, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond once rose to about 5.33%, hitting a new high since 2007; the 10-year yield also rose to about 4.74%. What is more alarming is that the long-term yields are rising, but the short-term yields have not risen significantly in sync. This means the market may be trading on more than just "Federal Reserve interest rates." The market is truly worried about three things: First, inflation. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again, pushing oil prices back near $90, and rising energy prices will again drive up inflation expectations. Second, fiscal issues. The U.S. long-term debt and fiscal deficit pressures are increasing, and the market requires higher yields to absorb the large supply of long-term Treasury bonds. Third, term premium. In other words, investors are starting to demand higher yields to compensate for uncertainties in future inflation, fiscal policy, and other policies. So now there is a very noteworthy combination: The short end is trading on "possible future rate cuts," while the long end is trading on "long-term rates not coming down." This is a typical yield curve steepening. What does this mean for U.S. stocks and BTC? Short-term bearish. Because the 30-year yield breaking above 5.3% effectively raises the "risk-free cost of capital" for the entire financial market. Tech stocks and AI high-valuation assets are especially sensitive. Although BTC is not a traditional long-duration asset, it still heavily depends on global liquidity. So if the following occurs: 30Y continues to rise + 10Y continues to rise + the U.S. dollar strengthens Then BTC, ETH, and high-beta altcoins will all come under pressure. Conversely, if the following happens: Oil prices fall + long-term yields peak + ETFs see renewed sustained inflows Then the pressure on risk assets will truly ease. What I am most focused on now is not whether there will be a rate hike in September, but rather: Whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can fall back near 5%. If 5.3% is just an emotional shock followed by a quick retreat, then risk assets may recover quickly. But if long-term yields persistently run above 5.2%–5.3%, then it is no longer a simple "Fed expectation change," but a global asset pricing system that is raising the long-term cost of capital. The short end expects easing, but the long end demands higher rates. The real danger is not a single rate hike, but the market starting to doubt that long-term rates can return to the low levels of the past. This is very critical for BTC, SNDK, and AI tech stocks that you have been closely watching recently—even if fundamentals are not bad in the short term, high-valuation assets may first suffer valuation pressure from rates. $BTC #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $XIAOMI This Q2 financial report cannot be judged solely by the 6.1% year-on-year revenue decline. What's even more worth examining is: smartphone shipments have declined, but the high-end trend has pushed ASP to new highs; IoT continues to grow; Automobile deliveries continue to expand. What truly suppresses profits is the rising costs of core components like storage, as well as continued investment in automotive and AI businesses. Let's look at the core data: Xiaomi's total revenue in Q2 was 108.922 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year; Gross profit was 21.609 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with a consolidated gross margin dropping from 22.5% in the same period last year to 19.8%. Adjusted net profit was 6.219 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 5.7%. The decline in profit margins is more pronounced than revenue, indicating that the core pressure this quarter is not just low sales, but rising costs directly squeezing the profit margins of the hardware business. Compared to statutory net profit, adjusted net profit is more suitable for assessing Xiaomi's main business quality this quarter. Mobile Phone: High-end segments support unit prices but have not fully offset cost pressures Xiaomi Q2 global smartphone shipments were 31.2 million units, down 26.3% year-on-year; Mobile phone revenue was 42.1 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year. The decrease in revenue was significantly smaller than the drop in shipments, mainly due to ASP rising to 1,351 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, setting a new high. High-end development is still progressing. The sales share of phones priced above 3,000 yuan in Chinese mainland has risen Regulatory pressure suddenly intensifies, this is not a pump signal, but a reshuffling of seats for BTC and ETH. There is basically no suspense on the $BTC side. Its commodity attributes have been recognized by the market, and the ETF channel is operational. Currently, the asset size of BTC spot ETFs has long exceeded $100 billion. Pension funds, family offices, and hedge funds can enter simply by holding ETFs without touching on-chain wallets. For regulators, BTC is more like "digital gold," with low compliance costs, and just giving it a commodity classification is enough. $ETH is much more complex. It is not just an asset but more like a settlement network layer. The SEC, CFTC have this time involved Coinbase, Gemini, Nasdaq, and CME in the discussion, indicating that regulators are focusing on the financial infrastructure function behind ETH. In terms of data, the scale of ETH spot ETFs is still climbing at the tens of billions of dollars level, lagging far behind BTC; however, ETH on-chain DeFi total locked value has long accounted for more than half of the entire chain, L2 ecosystem TVL has already surpassed $10 billion, tokenized RWA US Treasuries are also moving onto the ETH mainnet and L2, and staking yields are forming on-chain interest rates. Simply treating ETH as a security would shake the compliance foundation of DeFi, L2, and RWA. So my judgment is: BTC has completed "asset legalization," and the next issue is allocation of existing holdings; ETH is fighting for "financial infrastructure legalization," which will not determine short-term prices in this round but will decide the ecological position of on-chain finance over the next five years. This is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. Around $64,000, it indicates that the market has not completely abandoned the digital gold narrative. The fact that bad news can't break through is itself a signal. ETH is more selective. Around $1,900 acts like a trust line. The market knows ETH has an ecosystem and staking yields, but investors now need new evidence. Is stablecoin activity picking up? Is DeFi regaining appeal? Are L2s feeding back into the mainnet? Is ETF capital continuing? Is there substantial progress on staking ETFs? These all determine whether ETH can break through, rather than just following BTC's rebound. So BTC and ETH have different tasks now. BTC needs to hold, ETH needs to prove. If BTC holds, it means long-term capital is still willing to allocate to non-sovereign assets; if ETH breaks through, it means the market believes on-chain finance is not just an old story from the last bull market but a system that can continue to grow. This also explains the difference in trading rhythm. BTC is suited to observing reactions to bad news, ETH is suited to observing the realization of good news. If BTC doesn't fall deeply on negative news, it shows strong support; if ETH doesn't rise on positive news, it shows selling pressure and skepticism remain heavy. One looks at defensive quality, the other at offensive capability. The market is still waiting for direction from the Federal Reserve, regulation, and ETF capital. If BTC's defense succeeds, it will underpin the entire crypto market; if ETH's offense succeeds, the market will move from "main asset recovery" to "ecosystem expansion." BTC at $64,000 asks: Does the market still believe in digital gold? ETH at $1,900 asks: Does the market still believe in on-chain finance? Both questions are important, but the answers may not come simultaneously. I now actually feel that what the market truly deserves attention is not how much the Nasdaq has dropped, but the strength difference shown by BTC and ETH. The Nasdaq $QQQ does have some short-term pressure; after leaving a hanging man candlestick yesterday, it continued downward today, but I won't interpret this as a trend reversal for now. As long as the key support isn't effectively broken, I prefer to see it as a normal cooldown during an uptrend. If it really approaches the support area, that's when I would reconsider my position. $BTC feels stronger to me. It has reclaimed the 20-day moving average with volume on the breakout, and even as the Nasdaq pulls back today, BTC hasn't shown obvious weakness, which is a detail I pay attention to. The key now is whether it can hold above the 20-day line; if it moves up, the focus will be on the STH-RP near 67150. If it really reaches there, I wouldn't rush to chase but wait for a clear resistance before considering a short. $ETH is currently what I want to observe most. Although it also forms a triangle, the biggest difference from the previous round is that volume hasn't significantly increased during the decline. The price is falling, but selling pressure hasn't simultaneously intensified, and this volume-price relationship doesn't look bad to me. So my judgment is simple: the Nasdaq's short-term adjustment doesn't change the medium-term bullish bias, BTC's strong pattern is still intact, and ETH increasingly looks like it's waiting for a directional choice. If ETH breaks upward out of the triangle, around 2046 will be my key focus area. 1. What kind of stock is SanDisk? A top rollercoaster player in the storage sector, nicknamed Flash Drop Flash Rise SanDisk, its price swings depend entirely on the mood of NAND chips, with a trend more unstable than your love life. From $40 at IPO to $1800, a 40x increase in one year. Bears led by Citron shorted it and got crushed, while the next day it plunged, trapping retail investors chasing the rally. Bulls and bears take turns turning off the lights and eating instant noodles. 2. Humorous forecast of flash memory chip retail prices 1. Short term 3 months (2026 Q3-Q4) Samsung and Hynix have shifted all capacity to HBM production, causing a direct supply cut of NAND chips. Original manufacturers hoard inventory and raise prices, similar to the price hikes in bubble tea: Enterprise SSD prices rise 30%-50% monthly, AI server vendors scramble to stock up, with bosses tearfully paying premiums; Consumer SSDs, USB drives, and memory cards follow suit. Last year, 1TB SSDs were 300 yuan, now they’re approaching 1000 yuan. DIY enthusiasts grumble but reluctantly buy. The price increase won’t be a violent spike like before but a slow squeeze, rising for a few days then pausing for two, giving the illusion of "waiting for a price drop," then surging again. In the second half of the year, new capacity from Samsung and Kioxia will come online, making prices unable to rise further, leading to a high-level sideways consolidation. Those wanting to bottom-fish and wait for a crash can watch for opportunities. 3. End product complaints In the future, don’t hesitate to buy SanDisk USB drives and SSDs—buy early to save money, buy late and pay the price of a hotpot meal extra; large-capacity high-speed drives see the steepest price hikes, while small-capacity entry models are somewhat more reasonable. Short term 1-2 months (August-September): Repeated sideways moves torment investors $SNDK Iran is firmly opposing the new high in U.S. Treasury yields, and the market was suppressed across the board tonight. A quick look at the trending page shows everything is in the red. After scanning around, there are basically two main factors weighing down the market. One is that Iran has completely stopped pretending. The Speaker of Parliament directly stated today that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. meets all conditions, including unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, and ending the maritime blockade. Previously, some said "talks were nearly done," but now it’s clearly a different story. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase, and risk assets come under direct pressure. The other is that U.S. Treasury yields have hit their highest levels since 2007. The 30-year yield surged to 5.31% today, and the 10-year reached 4.724%. The triple pressure of fiscal deficits, increased government bond supply, and rising oil prices pushes bond yields up, causing funds to flow out of risk assets. Xiaomi’s earnings report is actually decent, with Q2 revenue at ¥108.9 billion and automotive revenue at ¥24.9 billion, up 17% year-over-year. But the overall market is weighed down by geopolitical and interest rate pressures, so it couldn’t escape either. With Iran’s tough stance and the new highs in U.S. Treasury yields, these two factors combined have indeed suppressed the market tonight. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI 分享我最近的学习笔记吧。美联储还在讨论下一步，30年期美债收益率已经升到5.31%。我把整条收益率曲线翻了一遍，最扎眼的并不是某一个数字创了新高，而是2年期只有4.00%，30年期却高出整整1.31个百分点。债券买家正在明着要价，钱借得越久，利息必须越高。我刚看到30年美债5.31%的时候，第一反应是去看2年期。结果2年期只有4.00%。这两个数字摆在一起，事情就有点不对劲了。美联储最容易影响的是眼前一两年的利率。市场相信经济可能走弱，也相信未来有放松政策的可能，所以2年期收益率没有跟着长债一起冲。可30年太久了。买下一张30年美债，相当于把钱借给美国政府直到2056年。中间要经历多少轮通胀，财政赤字会扩大到什么程度，美国政府还要发多少债，没有人算得准。买家干脆把这种不安写进利息里。 5.31%就是他们开出来的价。这也解释了一个最近很反常的现象。经济数据稍微转弱，市场马上开始讨论美联储会不会放松，可科技股和加密资产并没有立刻得到那种熟悉的兴奋感。因为短端利率降下来，长端利率未必配合。假设未来美联储真的放松，2年期收益率从4%继续往下走，30年期却还趴在5%以上，房 The US Dollar Index touched 99.28 intraday on August 17, marking its lowest level since June 5, and continued to consolidate weakly around 99.50 during the Asian session on August 18. CME's "FedWatch" shows the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in September surged to 69%, up from just 48% a week ago; the chance of a 25 basis point hike dropped sharply from 51.2% a month ago to 30%-35%. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, CPI year-on-year fell to 3.4%, and retail sales declined 0.6% month-on-month — this "series of cold surprises" has completely reversed the rate hike narrative. The 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired without extension, and the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend plummeted from 31 to 5. WTI crude oil rose 3.14% on Monday. The surge in oil prices pushes inflation expectations higher, turning traditional safe-haven benefits into rate hike concerns, which is the biggest uncertainty hanging over gold prices. Gold funds recorded the strongest inflow since January, with some investors in the options market buying 8,000 November $460 SPDR Gold Trust call options at $5.55 each; global central banks' net gold purchases in Q2 reached 288.9 tons, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 411%. The current unusual combination of "declining short-term rates + rising long-term yields" has created today's pattern of high-level volatility and weak upward momentum. The 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.28%, hitting a nearly 20-year high, and the surge in long-term rates itself suppresses non-yielding gold. #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $ETH $XAU #Gold stands above $4430, option funds turn bullish $XAU is rising, long-term bond yields are rising, two things that shouldn't happen simultaneously Gold is at 4430. Option funds have shifted from downside protection to bullish bets, and gold funds have recorded the strongest inflow since January. Bank of America’s Hartnett says U.S. debt is approaching 40 trillion, interest expenses are rising, gold should be allocated. On the other hand, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.29%, the highest since 2007. Two things that shouldn't happen at the same time—gold doesn’t yield interest, holding it means giving up a 5.3% risk-free return, which is textbook basic pricing logic. But it’s rising. Not only rising, funds are chasing it, and the options market has shifted from buying protection to buying upside. Someone is betting on one thing with gold: long-term bond yields won’t stay here. Either inflation continues to fall, or the Fed will eventually ease, or the U.S. debt problem will force the market to reprice the dollar’s credit. $BTC is also rising, at 64,300, aligned with gold’s direction, also betting on the same thing—that 5.3% won’t hold for long. Interest rates chose a direction first, but prices are choosing another. Both sides are betting real money, and one side will have to admit they’re wrong. I haven’t moved my position, waiting for long-term bond yields to drop below 5%, waiting for ETFs to show continuous net inflows. Gold and long-term bond yields are fighting; I’m watching to see who will concede first.Rotation in U.S. stock sectors and how it indirectly affects the rhythm of $BTC $ETH. Many people only focus on the major market indices and overlook the strength and weakness within U.S. stock sectors, which can provide early sentiment signals for the crypto market. When the computing power hardware sector strengthens, it indicates the market is willing to assign valuations to high-growth, high-volatility assets, and overall risk appetite rises. In such an environment, BTC is more likely to gain upward momentum, and ETH is more likely to experience a rebound. If funds cluster in defensive sectors and growth sectors collectively cool down, even if the major indices close higher, the crypto market—being a high-beta asset—will struggle to produce a decent rally. It’s not guaranteed that crypto will follow just because U.S. stocks close higher. It depends on which sectors are rising. Indices can be supported by heavyweight stocks, but if growth sectors collectively decline, risk appetite has effectively contracted, and BTC and ETH will still face pressure.#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 The most striking thing in today's market watch is the US 30-year Treasury yield surging intraday to 5.326%, a nearly 20-year high; the 10-year yield also reached 4.7399%. Interestingly, domestic data for July also shows that industrial and high-tech manufacturing are still growing, while fixed asset investment and real estate remain weak. The government needs money to borrow, energy security requires funds, AI data centers need capital, and companies need refinancing, so long-term capital is starting to demand higher returns to be willing to lock money up for 10 or even 30 years. This impact on Crypto is more complex than simply saying rising Treasury yields are bearish. Short-term rates reflect Fed policy, while long-term rates reflect capital's patience. Short-term rates can ease in the future due to slower growth, but if long-term rates continue to be supported by fiscal policy, oil prices, supply, and capital expenditures, high beta assets will find it very difficult to achieve broad valuation expansion. So the logic of using US Treasuries to look at $BTC and $ETH has never changed: short-term looks at the Fed, long-term looks at reality. Today, I refine it further: short-term looks at policy path, long-term looks at who will borrow, who will repay, and who will bear inflation over the next decade. Many think bad data must suppress yields, but when fiscal supply, energy risks, and term premiums are stronger, the long end can also follow its own path.Real-time analysis of Bitcoin ETF buy and sell orders (August 18, 20:19, pre-market phase) Currently still in the U.S. stock pre-market period, the ETF has only a small amount of pre-market matching, with low trading volume. The cumulative daily turnover is $1.678 billion, with obvious capital divergence, and it has not yet entered the official trading window with the highest liquidity. On the buy side, Fidelity FBTC has a slight inflow of funds in the pre-market, representing a relatively stable recent bullish support; BlackRock IBIT shows slight back-and-forth fluctuations in pre-market funds, with insufficient sustained inflow. The sell side is still dominated by regular redemptions and outflows of Grayscale GBTC, continuously releasing medium- to long-term selling pressure. Other small and medium ETFs show weak capital fluctuations, with no collective buying or selling at the moment. The current support for BTC's high-level oscillation mainly comes from long-term on-chain whale locked chips and off-exchange spot capital absorption. This round of oscillation is a stock capital game, not a trend driven by incremental ETF funds. After the U.S. stock market officially opens at 21:30 tonight, ETF capital movements will be more valuable for reference. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in the evening are a key macro variable affecting institutional capital decisions going forward. This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice.Originally, 19.75M $PIEVERSE unlocked on August 14 Transferred out from the multisig wallet in three batches: 8.5M / 6.25M / 5M, into three different addresses respectively. Two of the receiving addresses are from the batch unlocked and transferred 3 months ago. Currently, this group of related addresses holds a total of 75.97M $PIEVERSE, valued at about 74.2 million USD, accounting for nearly 25% of the circulating supply. The chips are still very concentrated; when it pumps depends on when the dog whales move. One address of Hex Trust has repeatedly withdrawn $CHIP from BN multiple times in the past two months, with a fixed fund path: BN withdrawals then transferred to downstream address 0x6b5. Currently, this address holds 28.6M $CHIP valued at 800,000 USD, and also holds an old friend, $LIT, mostly withdrawn in multiple batches from Gate two months ago, holding 386K $LIT valued at 891,000 USD. Additionally, $CHIP has no recent unlocks; the large-scale unlock cycle for Team Investor starts in April 2027. Currently, it is retesting the 4-hour support level; continuous observation is advised. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The focus of this Q2 financial report is not that revenue fell by 4% year-on-year, but that Baidu's revenue structure continues to lean toward AI: AI new business revenue reached 12.5 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of Baidu's core revenue. However, traditional online marketing is under pressure and profit margins are also real; Baidu is still in a phase of new business growth and adjustment of old businesses. Let's look at core data first: Baidu's Q2 total revenue was 31.325 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year; Baidu's core revenue was 25.183 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year. Operating profit was 3.024 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 10%; Adjusted EBITDA was 6.15 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with a margin holding at 20%. Net profit attributable to Baidu was 2.319 billion yuan, down 68% year-on-year; Non-GAAP net profit was 2.573 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year. The profit decline is significantly greater than revenue, indicating that the company's current conflict is not just revenue growth but also that costs, investment returns, and pressure on traditional businesses during the business structure transition have jointly affected profit performance. AI now accounts for half of its core business. In Q2, Baidu's core AI new business revenue reached 12.5 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, accounting for 50% of Baidu's core revenue. The significance of this data is that AI for Baidu is no longer just product narrative, but has entered a stage where it can be measured independently within its revenue structure $BTC stuck near 63.5K: Is it waiting for positive news, or the next sell-off? $BTC has recently returned to hovering around 63.5K–64K. The issue isn’t that there’s no positive news at all. The US stock market can rebound, and the probability of a rate hike in September is also decreasing, but BTC is struggling to keep up. More direct data shows: last week, US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $385 million, and the 30-day volatility remains near the year's low. This means: It’s not that no one is bullish, but right now there’s a lack of a real reason for money to flow in. Regulation is also critical. The probability of the Polymarket CLARITY Act passing this year has dropped to about 20%; however, on August 19, the White House will convene a meeting with crypto, prediction market, and regulatory executives, with Trump expected to attend. So now BTC looks like a typical waiting zone: There are buyers around 63K, but above 64.5K–65K there’s a lack of sustained buying pressure. If the White House meeting brings real new regulatory progress and ETF funds turn positive again, it will likely break upwards; if the news is still "continue discussions" and ETFs keep seeing outflows, the 62K–63K range will sooner or later be retested. The biggest uncertainty now isn’t "whether there is positive news," but: When will positive news turn back into capital. $BTC #Bitcoin hovering at $63,500 August 14, Trump: "After completely defeating Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will be U.S. territory." August 15, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei: Despite U.S. obstruction, Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a navigation passage plan. The new route closes the existing north-south route; some merchant ships will partially pass through Iranian territorial waters. This is temporary, expected to last 2 to 4 months. August 15, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi: "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be taken by a tweet, an aircraft carrier, an order, or a speech." August 15, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: "The U.S. has violated the memorandum of understanding, the flames of war have reignited, and there is no so-called 'extended ceasefire agreement.'" August 17: The 60-day ceasefire agreement officially expires. Trump says, "I will take the strait," Iran says, "I already control the strait." Both are talking tough, but the market cannot price this over the weekend. Because crude oil futures are closed over the weekend. All risks accumulate until Monday's opening. On Monday morning, when crude oil opens, there are only two scenarios. Scenario A: Oil prices gap up sharply The market interprets the Iran-Oman agreement as "Iran unilaterally controlling the strait" — the new route passing through Iranian territorial waters means Iran holds the key to the strait. Coupled with the ceasefire agreement expiring Monday and the possibility of war reigniting. Brent closed at $88.52 on Friday and will gap up at open Monday, pushing above $90. Scenario B: Oil prices fluctuate violently The agreement includes a "60-day free navigation" arrangement, which some funds may interpret as a short-term easing signal. But the Iranian Foreign Minister also said "it has not yet been decided whether to restart talks with the U.S." — easing that is meaningless. Bulls and bears will fiercely contest Monday morning. Whether A or B, volatility will be huge. What about BTC? Oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → rate hike expectations strengthen → non-interest assets under pressure (bearish) But extreme geopolitical risk → fiat currency credit crisis → some funds seek "digital gold" for hedging (bullish) Two forces pulling in opposite directions. On August 15 and 16, BTC fluctuated narrowly around $63,000 — the market is waiting, waiting for crude oil to give direction on Monday. Gold has already broken through $4,400. BTC? Still playing dead at $63,000. It’s not unresponsive; it’s waiting for a signal BTC Evening Thoughts $BTC $ETH Institutional holdings on the news side support the market floor. After this bottom test, the rebound strength is very strong, the short position pressure has been fully released, and the short-term trend leans bullish. BTC at 64100, continue holding long positions, target first at 64500, if broken through, follow the trend to 65000 ETH at 1890, continue holding long positions, single target at 1915 Today's Market The Asian session did not experience a deep drop, only a slight dip to the 64k level on the 1st line, and the first take-profit has already been secured. With the U.S. stock market opening soon, Coinbase's pre-market real premium remains positive, and the probability of continued ETF fund inflows is relatively high. If the premium holds after the open and the CVD aligns accordingly, the upper target is first seen near the dense contract order area around 65k. Combining the POC and the previously calculated upward range of 4.6%, the corresponding range is 65k-65.2k. At that time, focus on observing the absorption of selling pressure, volume changes, and entry signals at this level. On the downside, if there is a valid break below 64k and a drop below the Asian session's consolidation range, the POC at 63.6k can still serve as a support reference. Special attention should be paid to algorithmic sell-offs before the U.S. market opens, and positions can be considered for absorption and layout at that price. Additional explanation of the color band model: Although a distant range color band appeared below today, it currently lacks reference value. This indicator counts contract order imbalances in the 2.5%-5% price range. A large number of buy orders below 63k happen to fall within this range, while there are no sell orders in the same range above. The market's real large sell orders are actually concentrated within the near range of 2.5%, so this color band signal is temporarily ignored. Today's core operation still anchors on the key position corresponding to the POC, and execution should follow the range-based approach. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 BTC futures market, a sharp rise in funding rates amid low volatility suggests a change in the position cost structure. The price remained unchanged overnight, but the funding rate jumped to 0.3%. What does this trend imply? The key facts identified in the original text are that $LAB's price recovery attempt led to a surge in funding rates, and in the U.S. stock market, $SNDK and $MU showed different price behaviors, with $SNDK stabilizing around 1800 and $MU maintaining around 1000. In the spot market, $GPS surged about 50%, while $CAP, $ALLO, and $AEON recorded gains in the 10% range. Conversely, $BEAT and $BICO continued a bearish trend. The core observation regarding price structure is the decoupling of volatility and funding rates. In the case of $LAB, the price was sideways, but the funding rate surged. This indicates a structure where long position holders are paying holding costs without price increases, showing that the market is more sensitive to position maintenance costs than to directional moves. Typically, a funding rate above 0.1% is interpreted as an overheating signal, and 0.3% is this $WLFI 🇺🇸 THE WHITE HOUSE IS HOSTING THE BIGGEST CRYPTO MEETING IN HISTORY THIS WEEK! In the room: President Trump, SEC Chair Atkins, CFTC Chair Selig, Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME and DTCC. The real story is who’s at the end of that list. DTCC settles almost every stock trade in America, and you don’t invite them to discuss a bill, you invite them to build. Looks like this administration isn’t waiting for the CLARITY Act anymore.$USD1 If the Federal Reserve is moderately dovish at Jackson Hole, ETH may have greater elasticity, but BTC is more likely to get money first. On the eve of Jackson Hole, the market's main concern is the Fed's tone. As long as interest rate expectations loosen, both BTC and ETH may react. But their rhythms are likely different: BTC is more likely to get money first, while ETH may have greater elasticity. The reason BTC gets money first is simple. It is the crypto asset most easily understood by institutions, with ETFs, liquidity, and a digital gold narrative. Once the macro environment loosens slightly, the most natural move for allocation funds is to buy BTC first. It doesn't require explaining DeFi, L2, or staking regulations. Investment committees understand: this is a non-sovereign, fixed supply, highly liquid alternative asset. The reason ETH has greater elasticity is also simple. ETH faces more suppression: high interest rates suppress yield comparisons, regulations suppress staking and DeFi, and on-chain sluggishness suppresses application valuations. As long as the Fed leans dovish and real interest rate expectations decline, the market will re-evaluate risk and yield assets. ETH's staking yields will become more attractive relative to U.S. Treasuries, and on-chain finance will be easier to reprice. But greater elasticity does not necessarily mean it will rise first. ETH requires risk appetite to expand, while BTC only needs risk appetite to recover. The former has more conditions, the latter a more direct path. Funds usually buy the most certain asset first, then the one with higher elasticity. In other words, if Jackson Hole releases positive signals, BTC may first stabilize the main trend, and ETH will then see if it can take over. Conversely, if the Fed leans hawkish, ETH may face greater pressure. BTC can still resist somewhat with its long-term reserve and fiscal deficit narrative; ETH will be revalued downward as a high-beta growth asset. Especially around $1900, if buying is not strong enough, the market will continue to doubt its independent trend. So when judging BTC and ETH going forward, don't just ask "Is the Fed good or bad news?" Ask: If good news appears, how will funds flow? If bad news appears, who is more resilient? BTC is the first entry point, ETH is the second stage elasticity. BTC stable, ETH strong, is the best combination. The Fed provides the direction, BTC decides whether money enters the market, ETH decides whether money dares to continue taking risks. Circulating supply surpasses 400 million EUR, annual growth over 100%: How Circle captures MiCA dividends, and why EURC is breaking through the USD stablecoin monopoly? Under the long-term dominance of USD stablecoins controlling 99% of liquidity in the crypto world, a force from the European compliance camp is quietly accelerating its breakthrough. According to the latest on-chain audit data disclosed by Circle, its issued euro-compliant stablecoin EURC has officially surpassed the 400 million EUR mark in total circulating supply. Over the past year, EURC’s total network supply has explosively doubled by more than 100%, and it has completed native deployments on multiple major public chains including Ethereum, Avalanche, Stellar, Solana, and Base. In the context of the overall stock competition, why has EURC been able to achieve a counter-trend doubling growth curve? The core driver is the full implementation and enforcement of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). In the past, offshore USD stablecoins grew aggressively due to massive network effects; however, with MiCA imposing very high strict compliance thresholds on stablecoin issuers regarding reserve custody, capital reserves, and the establishment of Electronic Money Institution (EMI) licenses, European compliant exchanges and institutional clearing channels have had to accelerate the cleanup of non-compliant tokens. Leveraging the first-mover advantage of obtaining compliance licenses, Circle has almost effortlessly taken over the on-chain settlement needs of regulated European financial institutions and corporate treasuries. A more critical driving force lies in EURC’s strategic leap from a single "crypto-denominated instrument" to a "real foreign exchange and multi-chain payment network." By completing native deployments on high-throughput, low-fee networks such as Solana and Base, EURC is not only widely integrated into major DEXs across chains to form EUR/USD foreign exchange liquidity pools, but also becomes a low-cost new channel for European cross-border B2B payments and multinational freelancer settlements. Cross-border foreign exchange flows that previously relied on traditional SWIFT or SEPA banking systems, which took days and incurred high intermediary fees, are now being replaced by native on-chain stablecoins with second-level confirmations and near-zero costs. Although in absolute scale, euro stablecoins are still at an early stage compared to the hundred-billion-dollar USD stablecoin giants, the on-chain physical deposit of 400 million EUR in compliant euro assets marks a key cold start threshold for non-USD fiat currency foreign exchange ecosystems on-chain amid the global trend of geopolitical multipolarization and regional fiat digital clearing. With the continued advancement of the MiCA regulation and the maturation of multi-chain ecosystems, do you think compliant non-USD stablecoins like EURC can break the absolute USD monopoly in DeFi and cross-border payments? In your on-chain asset allocation or daily interactions, will you start using euro stablecoins? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $DOGE Macro Movements: Diesel Crack Spread Surpasses 100, Hits Historic High, BTC Faces Multiple Macro Battles Key Data: The U.S. diesel-to-crude oil "Crack Spread" surged to $102.20 per barrel, setting a historic record. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil broke above the downtrend line since April, ending a four-month decline. Driving Logic: Due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the situation in Ukraine, global diesel supply is extremely tight. It is currently harvest season, with strong demand for equipment fuel. Diesel prices continue to rise and may transmit inflation through transportation and heating costs. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Impact on BTC: Bearish Pressure: Soaring energy prices combined with inflation expectations are pushing up bond yields in developed economies like U.S. Treasuries. Rising risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like BTC, potentially limiting short-term upside. Bullish Support: The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.29 (a two-and-a-half-month low) and broke below its uptrend line. A weak dollar continues to provide a floor of support for Bitcoin. Summary: The current macro environment shows clear divergence. BTC is caught in a fierce battle between "high inflation expectations (bearish)" and "weak dollar (bullish)." Close attention is needed on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals.Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrency market analysis Core logic: This round of decline is not a long-term collective bearish exit by institutions, but a collective closing of arbitrage positions plus speculative hot money diverted to the AI sector. The market is completing a capital structure transition. Source of sell-off: ETF outflows do not equal long-term bearish sentiment The large sell-off of US Bitcoin ETFs is mainly from hedge fund basis (spot-futures arbitrage) capital. Basis traders: buy spot ETFs while shorting CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, profiting from the premium between spot and futures prices without betting on price direction. Whether the market rises by 1 million or not, it doesn't affect them; they only earn risk-free spreads. Once the futures premium (basis) narrows and arbitrage space disappears, they collectively sell ETFs to close positions and exit. Therefore, a large portion of ETF outflows is arbitrage capital taking profits and leaving, not long-term institutions bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum dumping. Phenomenon: Data shows large net ETF outflows, giving a bearish illusion, but on-chain long-term holding addresses continue accumulating chips. Short-term arbitrage funds retreat, while long-term allocation funds slowly take over. Cross-sector capital migration: AI is drawing away high-risk hot money Global incremental speculative funds are flooding into AI hardware and AI stocks. AI companies have revenue and cash flow, greatly increasing their appeal to hot money seeking high returns. Some high-risk preference funds are leaving crypto markets to shift to the AI sector. It's not that AI is defeating Bitcoin and Ethereum, but capital is reshuffling and reallocating positions. The same batch of risk appetite funds is switching sectors to chase returns. Pricing logic transition: old narratives exit, new narratives form Old logic: ETF arbitrage funds plus leveraged hot money drive the market, futures premiums bring massive arbitrage entries, and the market is dominated by short-term quant funds. Old logic is failing: basis returns have sharply declined, arbitrage strategies lose appeal, and these funds are exiting the market. New logic: the market gradually shifts to long-term allocation funds, on-chain real demand, and alternative hard asset narrative pricing. Bitcoin aligns with digital gold consensus, Ethereum aligns with on-chain revenue and real application fundamentals. 58000 BTC and 1500 ETH represent the price range where old funds exit and new funds take over. CME basis continues to decline; spot-futures arbitrage annualized returns are now below US Treasury yields. Large-scale withdrawal of basis trading strategies is a fact. The AI sector attracts massive capital; semiconductor ETFs see huge net inflows, while crypto ETFs experience outflows simultaneously, confirming capital rotation data. On-chain dormant addresses and cold wallet chip stocks have not seen large-scale sell-offs, indicating long-term funds are accumulating on dips. Arbitrage funds exiting does not mean long-term funds will necessarily absorb the selling pressure. Closing arbitrage positions can create short-term heavy selling pressure; if long-term buying does not keep up, prices will continue to decline. However, this selling pressure comes from arbitrage, not a collapse of long-term conviction. The Federal Reserve's interest rate environment is the biggest variable. With sustained high rates, all non-yield assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum) will face valuation pressure. Even if institutions want to buy long-term, they will control the buying pace and not immediately drive the market up. AI capital inflow takes incremental funds, not all existing funds selling crypto. But if the market continues to lack incremental capital, the consolidation and bottoming process will be prolonged. Pricing logic switching is a slow process; switching does not immediately trigger a bull market. During the transition, high volatility and repeated sell-offs will still occur. Summary: The market looks like a bear market sell-off, but essentially all arbitrage money has fled, and funds intending to hold long-term are slowly entering. Hot money is chasing returns in AI, causing the crypto market to temporarily lose incremental capital. The old arbitrage-driven market is over. Future market trends will depend more on long-term allocation inflows, Federal Reserve monetary policy, regulatory environment, and on-chain real fundamentals. $LIT is attracting attention again, and this time a major player is moving. An institutional wallet deposited 3.35M $LIT — approximately $7.83M — into Lighter. Before that, tokens were gradually withdrawn from exchanges: 2.92M from OKX and another 468.6K from Bitstamp. The very fact of withdrawal from CEX is already interesting. And now these coins are being sent to Lighter. It looks like someone is clearly preparing the next move with $LIT. 🧐 #LIT #Crypto #OnChain I am Cige. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to the 5.29% to 5.32% range, hitting a new high since 2007. The 10-year yield has also reached 4.72%. Long-term rates are breaking through the ceiling of the past decade-plus. The scale of US debt continues to expand, increasing pressure on long-term bond issuance. Inflation remains above the 2% target, with both supply and demand pushing long-term yields higher. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings; overseas buyers are retreating, and new bond issuance can only be absorbed by domestic funds, which will only raise costs. The AI financing boom is also driving up the issuance scale of investment-grade bonds, intensifying competition for long-term capital. Japanese government bonds are also being sold off simultaneously, indicating this is not a problem unique to the US but a global repricing of long-term interest rates. Regarding the impact on BTC, in the short term, the continued rise in US Treasury yields will suppress risk asset valuations. In a high-interest-rate environment, capital flows to income-generating assets, so BTC, as a non-yielding asset, faces short-term pressure. But in the medium term, the new highs in US Treasury yields themselves indicate a fact: the world's safest asset is becoming increasingly expensive, reflecting the ongoing depletion of US dollar credit. Japan, the UK, and China are all reducing US Treasury holdings simultaneously, accelerating the de-dollarization trend. When long-term rates break through the 2019 highs, the attractiveness of holding dollars rises, but the credit foundation of US Treasuries is being eroded. These two forces coexist: short-term focus on rates, medium-term focus on credit. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking; you can savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Today is a disaster day for storage, and $xMU has also crashed since 10:15 this morning, down 4.3% for the day. 1. Micron closed at 1011.75 yesterday, up 4.13%. xMU is now at 961, a 5% discount. It dropped 3-5% pre-market, dragging xMU down with the storage sector. 2. It rose from 723 to 1032 in 30 days and is now pulling back from a high. RSI 65 has fallen from the overbought zone, but the price is still above the 5-day moving average at 932 and the 10-day moving average at 948, so the trend is intact. 3. The problem with the storage sector now is that it rose too fast, not that the logic is bad. The AI storage narrative and HBM supply shortage mean the mid-term story remains. My approach: 932-950 is the moving average support zone; buy in batches if it falls into this range. For storage elasticity, xSNDK is the first choice with the best liquidity at 13.94 million turnover; xMU is the second choice, with a shallower pullback but also less elasticity. Just now, Bitcoin violently broke through $64,000 in one go, surging over 1.5% in 24 hours, directly crushing the shorts to the ground! 📈 But is this rebound really stable? Three key signals must be clearly seen: 1️⃣ Short squeeze massacre: In the past 24 hours, $143 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with short liquidations 1.4 times that of longs! A whale was forced to stop loss at the $64,000 mark, with the liquidation price precisely locked at $63,710; every tick up feels like a stab to the heart 🔪. 2️⃣ Institutional hesitation: Although Paul Tudor Jones' company repurchased the BlackRock ETF, last week the spot ETF still saw a net outflow of $390 million. Coinbase premium remains negative, indicating that domestic US buying is still cautious; this move looks more like a "technical pullback" rather than a trend reversal 🤔. 3️⃣ Macro factors pulling: Goldman Sachs says the probability of a rate hike in September is very low, and a weaker dollar is positive; but Middle East tensions (US-Iran ceasefire extension vs Lebanon conflict) and the stalled "Clear Act" legislation act like two stones weighing down risk appetite. ⚠️ Key levels: Above $65,000 is the "sell opportunity" according to Schiff, and also the psychological high ground bulls must capture; Below $57,000 is the bulls' "lifeline"; once broken, leveraged liquidations could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. 💡 My judgment: Before effectively breaking out of the $62,000-$65,000 consolidation range, don't rush to call a bull market. Bitcoin #BTC #cryptocurrency Funds are re-selecting; Bitcoin stabilization does not mean the altcoin season has already begun. As of August 18 Beijing time, Bitcoin was about $64,000, up about 1.7% in 24 hours; Ethereum is around $1,900, slightly outperforming Bitcoin. The total global crypto market capitalization is about $2.2 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share still at a high level, indicating capital recovery but not yet a comprehensive risk appetite. 1. Market Capital Behavior What truly deserves attention in this round of rebound is not Bitcoin's short-term gains, but whether funds return to the spot market. Previously, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw consecutive outflows, with a net inflow of about $137 million again on August 17. Currently, it is better defined as a relief of capital pressure rather than a confirmation of a trend reversal. From a market structure perspective, large funds still tend to favor Bitcoin, the most liquid asset. Meanwhile, Ethereum has begun to improve compared to Bitcoin. The price ratio between Ethereum and Bitcoin is an important indicator for judging whether funds are spreading into major altcoins. 2. Divergence in Performance by Tier and Sector Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Bitcoin stays around $64,000, Ethereum around $1,900. If Ethereum continues to strengthen relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds continue to receive inflows, the market may gradually enter a phase of "Bitcoin stabilization—Ethereum acceptance—altcoin spread." Large Market Cap Altcoins: Solana Worth Continued Monitoring. Recently, Solana-related spot exchange-traded funds have seen significant inflows #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 Everyone is watching 5.3%, but I’m more focused on another number: as of August 17, the 30-year real yield has risen to 3.06%, reaching a high since 2008. On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury intraday touched 5.327%, the 10-year around 4.739%; at the same time, the market’s probability of a rate hike in September is only about 37%. This indicates that the long end’s rise is no longer just a bet on the Fed, but a repricing driven by oil prices and inflation, fiscal deficits, and simultaneous bond issuance by the government and AI giants competing for funds. When the long-term US Treasury real yields exceed 3%, the first to be squeezed will be assets supported by forward stories, leverage, and new liquidity. In the crypto space, I believe overvalued altcoins will be more fragile than $BTC. My approach is not to liquidate but to reduce crypto risk exposure to 45% of total funds: BTC 30%, ETH 10%, altcoins 5%. If the 30-year yield holds above 5.30%, the 10-year breaks 4.75%, and BTC still fails to reclaim $65,000, I will first cut altcoins; when the 30-year falls back below 5.20% and real yields drop below 3%, I will gradually increase positions. The real danger is not a single rate hike, but that long-term capital becomes increasingly expensive while being treated as short-term noise. On August 18, CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin rebounded from about $62,600 to $64,600 on Monday, then temporarily oscillated near $64,000; as of the report, BTC had fallen about 0.6% since UTC midnight, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1.1%. This round of market movement was simultaneously pulled by two forces: rising U.S. Treasury yields and Brent crude oil prices, which suppressed risk asset valuations; on the other hand, the proportion of long positions in the derivatives market rose above 51%, and the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts reached about a 20-month high, indicating some traders are still chasing the rally. Bitcoin futures open interest remained around 750,000 BTC, with no significant retreat in market leverage. Notably, the strength has not spread across the entire market. CoinDesk data shows BTC’s 24-hour capital flow is slightly positive, while most major altcoins like ETH, SOL, LINK, and DOGE have negative capital flows, currently resembling a "Bitcoin-only buying spree" rather than a broad return of risk appetite. Implied volatility is at a yearly low, and bullish options trades dominate, also indicating that the calm market is attracting new directional positions. The next focus points are twofold: the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and the crypto industry policy meeting this Wednesday. If yields continue to rise, support near $64,000 will be tested; if macro pressures ease, low volatility and bullish option positioning could amplify a breakout. At this stage, it is more appropriate to view this as a range-bound game rather than a confirmed trend. This article Global regulation is gradually becoming clearer. When institutions allocate crypto assets, why do they look at $BTC first and then $ETH? Previously, when institutions looked at crypto assets, the biggest problem was not lack of interest, but not knowing how to get started. Regulations were unclear, accounting treatment was complicated, custody was complex, and internal risk control questions made many fund managers silent. But the situation has changed in recent years. ETFs have appeared, compliant custody has matured, the regulatory framework is slowly becoming clear, and institutions finally have a more comfortable entry point. And this entry point is most likely still $BTC. The reason is simple: $BTC is the asset most similar to what traditional finance can understand. It’s not like a company, there are no complex operational issues, and it doesn’t really require explaining a business model. You say it’s digital gold, although a bit cliché, it works well. When institutions allocate assets, the biggest fear is not low returns, but not being able to explain clearly. The advantage of $BTC is it’s clean to talk about, its logic is stable, and it has relatively few controversies. $ETH is a bit more complex. It is an asset, a network, and an ecosystem gateway. Behind it are staking, DeFi, Layer 2, and application layer growth. This is very attractive to crypto users, but for traditional institutions, it initially causes some information overload. However, the clearer the regulation, the greater the opportunity for $ETH. Because once institutions solve the question of whether they can buy it, the next step is to ask what to buy for better returns, which assets can represent on-chain economic growth. At that point, $ETH will come into view Damn, the 65,000 barrier has been hammered six times. Every time it tries to break through, it gets hammered back down, like it's welded shut. $BTC just bounced from 62,500 back up to around 64,300, up 1.23% intraday. But the resistance zone between 65,000-65,500 has been oscillating between 62,000 and 65,000 throughout August. The lows keep rising, and the bears are waiting for a signal. ETFs saw a net outflow of 390 million last week, with Fidelity pulling out 153 million and BlackRock 78.9 million. The week before, there was an inflow of 850 million, but it quickly turned into outflows. However, on August 17, Fidelity had a single-day inflow of 112 million again, showing institutions are tugging back and forth at this level. The macro environment is cooperating, but no one is buying—both CPI and PPI have dropped, the probability of maintaining rates in September is at 69%, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 20 basis points, yet BTC dropped from 65,000 back to 63,000. The positive news is no longer moving the price. The founder of Fairlead Strategies said BTC showed a rare long-term oversold reading near 63,000. The Fear & Greed Index rose from 34 to 41. Fidelity had a single-day inflow of 112 million, and Jane Street also disclosed holding nearly 1 billion USD in Bitcoin ETF assets. If 65,000 holds, then 67,000 and 69,000 are next; if it doesn't hold, it will be another lower high. I'm bullish, planning to buy a bit around 64,300 and add more if it stabilizes above 65,000. 65,000 has been hammered six times; the seventh time might really break through.Yesterday, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, with investors focusing on consumer spending data and the impact of the Middle East situation. The S&P 500 fell 0.52%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.31%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. The market retreated for the second consecutive trading day but overall remains near historical highs. What is truly worth noting is not the index fluctuations, but rather a clear rotation of funds happening within the market. The semiconductor/storage sector rebounded strongly, with Micron ($MU) rising about 4%, Applied Materials ($AMAT) up over 5%, and memory/storage stocks (including $SNDK, $MRVL) also profiting. Confidence in the sustainability of AI spending has increased. On the other hand, communication services/large tech companies like Meta Platforms ($META) and Microsoft ($MSFT) dragged the index down, making the communication services sector the biggest drag. Overall, demand in the AI hardware chain is strong, but software, retail, and energy sectors showed mixed performance. Funds have not left technology but are seeking new growth directions within the tech sector. 1. The most important signal yesterday: The AI rally is spreading from "core assets" to the "industry chain." If we break down the AI rally over the past two years, the first phase saw the market chasing the most direct computing power assets: GPU → $NVDA → $AMD Then funds began to spread to networks, servers, and data centers: Network → $AVGO / $A If you can get through the darkest night, then no matter how sudden the rebound is, it’s not really a surprise. Have you ever held a position that the market repeatedly slapped down, staring at the charts late into the night, doubting if you’re just being too stubborn? Today, I don’t have any grand narrative to share; I just want to talk about the $LAB I hold. A couple of days ago, it was still grinding down in a slow decline, with an unrealized loss of two thousand dollars, and the funding fees kept deducting. That feeling was like being boiled alive in warm water until you don’t even have the strength to scream. I was originally prepared for a long-term battle, but then the market suddenly warmed up, and it shot up with a single bullish candle, rising 7.97%. Honestly, at that moment, it wasn’t euphoria but a kind of dazed feeling of "so I haven’t been completely abandoned yet." But after calming down, I stared at the charts for a long time, and that excitement quickly faded. Because this rebound is not about a "fundamental reversal" or a "new narrative starting," it’s more like a technical correction after the previous drop was too sharp and deep, with shorts temporarily covering and some oversold funds coming back in. Short covering and technical rebounds are two different things; the former is shorts closing positions, the latter is bulls attacking. Currently, the market clearly shows the former dominating. Looking inside the sector, the divergence is still obvious. Storage sector $SNDK and $MU are still consolidating at high levels, temporarily entering an adjustment phase without giving a clear direction; meanwhile, the altcoins that fell the hardest before are collectively stirring, with $BEAT leading the rise by 15%, and $CAP, $APR, $ALLO also turning green. On the other side, $GPS, $H, $B As options and perpetual contracts become more popular, retail investors can no longer just look at the spot candlesticks for BTC and ETH. With the integration of Coinbase and Deribit's derivatives, the expansion of Deribit options contract structures, and the increasing accessibility of BTC and ETH options trading, these developments will change how ordinary people view the market. In the future, BTC and ETH price movements will be increasingly influenced by derivatives structures, not just spot trading. Spot candlesticks tell you the result, derivatives tell you how the market is betting. BTC consolidating around $64,000 may not mean no one is buying, but that option sellers are suppressing volatility; ETH hovering near $1,900 may not mean there’s no story, but that the options market isn’t willing to pay for upside yet. Funding rates, implied volatility, option expirations, and market maker hedging can all affect price rhythm. This is especially evident for BTC. BTC is becoming more institutionalized, with ETFs, options, perpetuals, futures, and structured products coexisting. Institutions might buy spot ETFs while buying puts for protection; they might also sell calls to earn premiums; mining companies might use derivatives to lock in revenue; market makers hedge dynamically based on gamma. The result is that BTC’s price can be stuck in a range for a long time, and once it breaks out, hedging positions can accelerate the move instantly. ETH amplifies this structure more easily. ETH is more volatile, has relatively weaker liquidity compared to BTC, and has more narratives. Once ETH breaks the key $1,900 range, options and perpetual positions may amplify volatility; if it breaks support, liquidations and hedging can accelerate the decline. ETH’s opportunities and risks are more concentrated in its elasticity. So if retail investors only focus on spot, it’s easy to misjudge. You see the price not rising and think the bullish case failed; it might just be volatility being suppressed by selling pressure. You see a sudden surge and think news came out; it might be option hedging triggering it. You see ETH outperforming BTC and think fundamentals changed; it might just be lighter position structures that are easier to push. This doesn’t mean ordinary people must trade options, but when looking at the market, they need to know there’s an extra layer of professional players behind it. BTC and ETH are no longer pure spot markets; they are becoming global derivatives assets. The quieter the price looks on the surface, the more complex the position structures might be underneath. The next big move might not be preceded by news, but by a low-volatility structure breaking down first. Spot is the surface; options are the undercurrent. 高价值内容分析，学习笔记分享。假设现在有两笔投资摆在你面前。一笔是借钱给美国政府，期限30年，每年给你5.31%的收益。另一笔是买股票、黄金或者$BTC $ETH 。价格每天波动，你还要承担公司业绩、经济衰退、监管和市场情绪带来的风险。你会选哪一个？这个问题，正在决定接下来全球资产的价格。美国财政部最新数据显示，30年期美债收益率已经升至5.31%，10年期也来到4.72%。30年国债上一次站在这个位置附近，还要追溯到2007年。 5.31%意味着，市场上突然出现了一项回报不低、信用风险又相对较小的选择。一只股票想吸引资金，就要证明自己的潜在回报明显高于5.31%。如果做不到，投资者会要求更低的买入价格。这就是高利率压低估值最直接的原因。过去资金便宜时，一家公司可以用很低的成本借钱，也可以让投资者等待五年、十年后的利润。现在等待本身就有成本。投资者把钱放进国债，每年已经能收到不错的利息，自然不愿继续为遥远的故事支付高价。 AI公司也加入了这场资金争夺。英国央行的报告显示，AI超大规模公司2026年上半年的投资级债券发行量已经超过2025年全年。市场预计，今年可能有约 370,000 $ETH added in one week: Is BitMine replicating the Strategy model, and has the ETH treasury era truly begun? BitMine's latest reserve data is out: 1,523,373 ETH, only 192 BTC, with total assets of $6.612 billion. The weekly ETH reserve increased by 373,000 coins, up from about 1,150,373 coins the previous week, a growth of approximately 32.4%. This is not just a regular accumulation; it's a treasury-level structural adjustment. Currently, ETH accounts for over 98% of its total reserves, with BTC basically just a garnish. Based on the $6.612 billion total assets, the 1,523,373 ETH corresponds to a market value close to $6.5 billion, implying a unit price of about $4,300. Its goal is straightforward: to acquire 5% of the total ETH supply. Given an ETH supply of about 120 million coins, 5% equals 6 million coins, and so far only about a quarter has been achieved, with roughly 4.5 million coins still to go. The key is not "how much was bought," but that it is replicating the capital market flywheel of Strategy: equity financing → expanding ETH asset scale → boosting enterprise valuation → refinancing. $BTC has already proven that the "enterprise coin-holding model" works, and ETH seems to be testing the "enterprise on-chain model" — ETH is not just a reserve asset but also accumulates staking rewards, ecosystem cash flow, and on-chain governance. Once this flywheel starts spinning, the ETH treasury era may arrive faster than expected. This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice Yushu Technology is finally set for this round, going public on August 19th with an issue price of ¥150.80 per share, raising ¥6.1 billion, and a total market cap breaking ¥60 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio soaring above 200 times. As the IPO approaches, market heat and reactions: ▶️ Extremely scarce shares: The winning rate is only about 0.018%, with one lot costing ¥75,400, making the entry barrier high for retail investors, and shares are almost entirely held by institutional clusters. ▶️ A final show of strength: On the eve of listing, they directly released a new product with an extreme running speed of 12.66 meters/second, forcibly maximizing the technological barrier and capital attention. ▶️ Strategic investor lineup boost: Besides the national team fund, top AI players like DeepSeek have joined, so the market is buying not just hardware but also the expectation of embodied intelligence large models. 🧩 Short term outlook: No limit on price fluctuations for the first 5 trading days, combined with an initial float of only 7.44%, the opening price will likely be pushed very high by sentiment, causing very volatile stock price movements. 🧩 Medium to long term outlook: Yushu is setting a benchmark for the entire humanoid robot sector. The ¥60 billion valuation already far exceeds current performance. Whether it can sustain the market cap going forward depends not on how many quadruped robots are sold, but on whether humanoid robots can truly achieve large-scale commercial deployment in factories and homes. Stock code 688836 Not investment advice DYOR #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Top investment bank Goldman Sachs' latest macro report sets the tone: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is extremely low. The current market's hawkish bets on interest rates are overly aggressive and represent an excessively pessimistic pricing. The core judgment comes from the latest U.S. economic data: marginal weakening in employment, cooling retail sales, and continued inflation slowdown. These three data points weaken the fundamental support for the Fed to continue raising rates. Goldman Sachs clearly states that unless there is a significant unexpected shift in key August data, the September FOMC meeting will keep rates unchanged. This statement directly revises market expectations: previously, funds worried about sustained high rates or even another hike, which suppressed risk asset valuations. The cooling of rate hike expectations means the global liquidity tightening pace pauses, putting pressure on the dollar and easing U.S. Treasury stress, creating a more favorable overall macro environment for the crypto market. But a key reminder: no rate hike ≠ immediate rate cut. The Fed still maintains a high-rate stabilization stance, merely ending the tightening cycle. No easing increment has been implemented, so there is no foundation for a flood-like rally. Mapping to the crypto market: the biggest macro uncertainty has been resolved, which is beneficial for short-term sentiment recovery and easing ongoing pressure, but insufficient to drive a one-sided strong bull run. Whether the market strengthens ultimately depends on BTC ETF fund inflows and spot buying support. Personal practical view: with marginal macro improvement, there is no need for excessive empty positions or panic, but it is also not suitable to heavily bet on trends. Hold spot positions calmly as a base, strictly control leverage on contracts, and wait for dual confirmation from subsequent rate cut expectations and funding conditions before adding positions. BTC’s 1.32% rise while ETH is nearly flat looks more like selective demand than a broad risk-on move. With the 30-year yield at a 2007 high, the macro backdrop still favors assets with the clearest liquidity and institutional bid. That makes BTC’s relative strength credible, but not yet a signal that the whole crypto market is ready to reprice higher. Until ETH and SOL show stronger participation, I would treat this as BTC-led resilience rather than a durable market-wide breakout. Not advice, just analysis.Trump directly labeled the Strait of Hormuz as "new American territory" and posted a map, reigniting tensions in the Middle East with a revised map. This is no longer just about shipping rights—the global energy choke point is being pulled into a "sovereignty narrative." The U.S. claims it has "complete control" of the waterway through blockade, while Iran calls that a "delusion." Both sides are vying for actual control over this strait, which handles about one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil. The critical factor is the timing: the 60-day cooling-off period in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding from June expired on August 17. Trump explicitly said he does "not seek an extension," while Iran declared that unless the U.S. lifts sanctions, compensates for breach damages, and withdraws its military presence, the strait will remain closed. With negotiations broken, the risk to crude oil supply immediately returns to the table. The market logic is straightforward: any tightening at Hormuz will ignite oil prices (Brent has already touched 91), inflation expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields simultaneously, putting all risk assets on edge. BTC, which watches macroeconomic pulses 24/7, will see its short-term volatility directly amplified; the previous low-volume oscillation around 64k could be instantly shattered by news. The same applies to ETH and SNDK—when liquidity is good, they follow risk appetite; in panic, liquidity is drained first. The map has already been drawn; the market's biggest fear isn't just talk but real next steps. If Hormuz truly flares up again, BTC's current box consolidation could quickly widen into sweeping orders. As of August 16, Strategy held 840,447 BTC, with a total holding cost of $63.36 billion and an average price of $75,385. At the same time, the company holds $4.8 billion in cash reserves. $4.8 billion was just on the books, not moving at all. What's even more heartbreaking is that Strategy has not bought any Bitcoin for eight consecutive weeks. Last week, the company raised $333.7 million by selling 3.46 million shares of MSTR stock. How was this money spent? 149.1 million USD supplemented US dollar reserves, 132.2 million yuan repurchased STRC preferred shares, 52.4 million yuan paid STRC dividends, not a single cent spent on BTC. This is completely different from the previous Saylor style of "adding positions immediately after raising funds." The market is starting to panic: Is Strategy's Bitcoin buying done yet? Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius made it clear on August 16 that the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in September is "extremely low." The reason is simple: retail sales in July fell 0.6% month-on-month, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and both CPI and PPI cooled simultaneously. CME data shows that the probability that the market prices the Fed will hold steady in September has risen to 65%-69%. Although the probability of a rate hike before year-end remains over 90%—at this point in September, it is highly unlikely that there will be any action. For risk assets, interest rates unchanged = the tap isn't turned on. BTC has just rebounded to $64,360. If the Fed really holds back,#英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 The leader has something to say NVIDIA has made another move in Ohio. OpenAI signed a 20-year lease with a project plan for 8GW IT capacity. SB Energy is responsible for building the data center, NVIDIA is investing $1.5 billion, and will also provide about $105 billion in credit support for the project's first phase. But this $105 billion is not a one-time cash investment. It mainly involves lease, power, and residual value arrangements. NVIDIA also added that if OpenAI does not renew the lease, the computing power can be subleased to other customers. NVIDIA's role is changing. Previously it was a chip seller, now it helps customers handle the entire package of data centers, power, and financing. Chips have become a component in the solution rather than the whole. This aligns with the previously mentioned logic. Capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is accelerating, and NVIDIA is not just selling GPUs; it is using its balance sheet to help customers expand production and lock in chip orders. The impact on crypto is still relatively indirect. The larger the AI infrastructure financing scale, the more active venture capital is drawn away from the market. The shrinkage in Bitcoin trading volume is related to this background. SPCX base position continues its pattern, with floating profits between 110 and above 150 being substantial, currently live watching the market together $BTC $GPS $ETH The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop-loss set, good luck.现在的加密市场，说实话，到了年底回头看，很多人心里恐怕只剩下一种感觉：累。不是没有行情，而是行情的方向和赚钱的逻辑，已经变得陌生了。一个不得不承认的现实是，我们正处于一轮周期性的调整期，资金没有消失，热情也没有完全熄灭，但它们暂时不在我们熟悉的那些币上了。这种错位感，比下跌本身更让人难受。先看一个很直观的现象：在主流交易平台上，股票类资产居然挤进了热门交易榜单。作为用户，你愿意把一万美元投给一个只有概念的空气项目，还是愿意买一只正在剧烈波动、故事性十足的闪迪？闪迪的走势确实疯狂，成交量放大，话题度拉满，市场资金显然还在，只是换了一个容器。这种场景很像一个无奈的比喻：孩子还是亲生的，但已经开始管别人叫爸爸了。资金还在场内，只是它不再选择加密货币作为落脚点。再看看曾经热闹过的项目，更能感受到这种残酷。比如$CORE，多少人一路补仓，从最高的6.9美元一路扛到现在0.02美元附近。假设你在顶部买入一万美元，到今天账户里只剩大约29美元。这不是浮亏，这几乎是归零。还有$LAB，最高触及20美元，现在只剩0.08美元，无数仓位被强制清算，多少血汗钱无声无息地填进了这个深渊。每个人入场的瞬间都

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