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On August 18, SOL showed relative resilience amid a broad market decline but did not emerge as an independent leader; volume was weak, resembling short-term rotation rather than clear evidence of "capital pre-positioning a narrative." Market performance: relatively resistant to decline, not an independent leader - Price and change: As of August 18, SOL was around $75.88, with a slight 24-hour increase; during the same period, BTC was about $64,247 and ETH about $1,907, with similar overall trends and no significant divergence such as "the market is stagnant but SOL alone is strong." - Volume and turnover rate: 24-hour trading volume was approximately $1.37 billion to $1.6 billion, turnover rate about 3.06% to 3.58%, with no abnormal volume spikes; the rise is more likely driven by short-term sentiment rotation. Fundamentals: highlights exist but no strong short-term catalysts - Tokenized assets (RWA): Q2 tokenized asset trading volume was $5.8 billion, a 114% quarter-on-quarter increase; tokenized stock trading accounted for $4.8 billion, over 97% of similar blockchain transactions, indicating the ecosystem is expanding into non-speculative assets. - Technical upgrades: The Alpenglow upgrade reduces finality time to about 150 milliseconds; LaserStream improves block and transaction processing efficiency via gRPC, reinforcing high-performance positioning. - Institutions and compliance: Q2 SOL spot ETP net inflow was $120 million; VanEck's SOL spot ETF received a DTCC code, raising market expectations for SEC approval. - Risks and volatility: Network revenue (REV) dropped 43% quarter-on-quarter to $51 million, application revenue down 31%, the ecosystem remains influenced by speculative activity; its "high performance" is built on a trade-off between decentralization and robustness, considered a high-risk, high-reward asset. Trading and observation recommendations - Volume priority: Avoid mistaking "relative resilience" for a trend uptrend without sustained volume increase; be cautious of pullbacks after short-term rotation. - Focus on catalyst realization: Track market feedback on the Alpenglow upgrade, whether RWA trading can maintain high growth, and progress on SOL spot ETF approval—these are key signals to confirm a "new narrative." - Risk control and position sizing: Treat SOL as a high-beta asset, control position size, set stop-losses, and avoid chasing highs when volume is insufficient. Currently, it looks more like sentiment-driven short-term rotation rather than the start of a new narrative; further validation of volume and key catalysts is needed before assessing if there is a trend opportunity. On Unitree Technology's first day on the STAR Market, it surged 629% at the opening, instantly pushing its market value to a high point and becoming a phenomenon-level event that caught the attention of the capital market. As a leading company in China's quadruped robot and humanoid robot sectors, Unitree Technology's IPO already carries a halo, but such an astonishing single-day surge far exceeds the typical premium range of new stocks, sharply addressing the question of "how to realize high valuations." The logic behind the surge: Scarcity, industry trends, and sentiment resonance. The surge on the first day was no coincidence. First, Unitree Technology is an extremely rare "pure embodied intelligent asset" in the A-share market. Amid the wave of AI and robotics integration, humanoid robots are seen as the next super terminal after smartphones and new energy vehicles. Unitree Technology, starting from quadruped robots, has now entered the humanoid robot field with precise positioning. Second, policy and industry resonance provide strong support. Major global economies have made the robotics industry a strategic direction, and the domestic emphasis on "new quality productivity" has further reinforced market expectations for high-end manufacturing and intelligent robots. Combined with the embodied intelligent imagination brought by AI large models, capital is almost eagerly chasing related core targets. Furthermore, the surge on the first day is also inseparable from trading factors. In the early stages of listing for new stocks on the STAR Market, the circulating supply is relatively limited, with sentiment and trend funds flowing in, which can easily cause short-term supply-demand imbalances and amplify gains. It can be said that the 629% increase reflects both fundamental expectations and significant liquidity and sentiment premiums. The core path for high valuation realization: valuation comes fromAn on-chain data anomaly worth noting has appeared: there were two consecutive large transfers of GPS below 0.0121, totaling about 3.12 million tokens. The receiving addresses are newly created wallets with no recharge transactions from exchanges to date. This operation, which cannot be quickly completed by retail investors, resembles a low-buy accumulation rather than a sell-off. On the order book, the passive buy density suddenly increased in the 0.01200 to 0.01215 range. Sell orders above are pressing down but small active orders keep eating through them; any drop is immediately absorbed. During a pause in shipping, I squatted by the roadside and glanced at my phone; then an electric scooter honked to urge me to move my car. When I looked up, the order book had already rebounded to 0.01218. The naked candlestick shows the previous two 15-minute candles both closed with long lower shadows, and the low did not break 0.01192, indicating capital support. As long as it does not effectively break below 0.01190, the rebound target is first at 0.01265. On OKX live trading, you can scale into longs between 0.01200 and 0.01220, with a stop loss below 0.01188, first take profit at 0.01262, and second take profit at 0.01320. If the 15-minute close falls below 0.01185, the whale transfers are just a smokescreen; abandon long positions.
$GPS
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议
@OKX星球 Starlink August 19 SanDisk Single Coin Insight
These two daily charts of SanDisk and SK Hynix, combined with the huge buyback news, clearly explain today's extreme market behavior of this asset.
Yesterday, a brother asked me near 1700 if SanDisk could be shorted. I directly gave the advice: not recommended to touch it, nor to open a short position.
Why not short it?
Because the market has reached a point completely detached from technical analysis. This kind of asset, propped up by Korean chaebol funds and news, is manipulated very harshly by big players. The first wave pulled it from 1000 to 1800, basically giving no chance for people to enter on a pullback.
If you think it can't rise near 1700 and short it, most retail traders will face two very real problems.
First, they can't hold profits. Maybe it just drops a little, and you want to run, afraid of losing profits, ending up with just a tiny gain.
Second, and most fatal, is being very vulnerable to news shocks. Like today, the company suddenly announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation, a super positive news. Once the news dropped, the market immediately gave you a big bullish candle to pull back up. If you didn't set a stop loss on your short at 1700, this rally would hang your short position on the tree top. Trading this kind of purely fund-driven news coin is like a knife fight; a slight mistake and you get hit from both sides.
Now that the positive news has officially landed, starting tomorrow there will be a three-month buyback period. So in the short term, SanDisk's bullish sentiment will definitely dominate. For this kind of market, my personal advice is to keep a respectful distance, don't chase the rally, and don't try to guess the top.
The core of trading should still focus on BTC and ETH. The news-driven rally looks tempting, but what truly allows you to compound steadily is always assets with stronger liquidity and regularity. This single coin market, where price moves entirely depend on one piece of news, is not suitable for the vast majority of ordinary traders to participate in. Just watch and control your hands. $BTC $ETH $SOL #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ A storm of U.S. debt is sweeping across the globe.
Panic quickly spread from U.S. stocks to Asia-Pacific markets.
Japanese and Korean stock markets plunged first.
During the Korean stock market, there was a circuit breaker during trading, and the storage giants performed poorly.
Japanese stocks followed closely behind, with chip stocks under pressure.
Global multinational bond yields hit decades-high levels.
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 5.31%, a 19-year high.
US debt collapsed, and Japanese debt also collapsed.
Japan's 10-year yield is approaching 3%, reaching a nearly 30-year high.
3% is the life-or-death line for Japanese bonds.
Analysts believe that once a breakout occurs, it could trigger a new round of sell-offs.
The three forces driving up Japanese bond yields are clear.
First, inflation and a weak yen. At the end of July, the yen hovered at a forty-year low, and the Middle East crisis further pushed global inflation expectations higher, forcing the Bank of Japan to accelerate its exit from easing.
Second, fiscal concerns. Japan's government debt has exceeded 200% of GDP, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's investment expansion and tax cut plan have made the market even more uneasy.
Third, weakening demand. This month, a 10-year Japanese bond auction saw demand hit a one-year low.
Deutsche Bank Japan analysts believe this is a normalization process with cautionary meaning, not a crisis. Once the Bank of Japan pays off its rate hikes and terminal rates become clear, buying on dips will gradually overpower the trendy sell-off.
Takeshi Ueno, Chief Economist at the Japan Research Institute, warned that if the market characterizes this round of rally as a vicious rally, the linkage between yen weakness and the bond market will further intensify. Breaking through 3% is symbolic.
The global bond market faces another major testIn-depth Analysis of the Global Bond Market Storm: When the "Foundation" of Global Finance Begins to Collapse
1. Market Status: A Global "Duration Storm"
The global bond market is undergoing a historic sell-off.
United States: On August 18 (Monday), the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly surpassed 5.31% intraday, reaching its highest level since June 2007—just before the global financial crisis. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, and the 30-year yield climbed further to 5.333%, setting a new high since summer 2008.
Europe: The 30-year German government bond yield rose to a 15-year high of 3.763%. France’s borrowing costs hit their highest point since 2008, and the UK’s long-term government bond yields approached 6%.
Japan: The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.955%, the highest since 1996; the 2-year yield rose to 1.710%, a level not seen in over thirty years.
Stock Markets Collapse in Tandem: The three major U.S. stock indices fell for three consecutive trading days, with the Dow Jones down 0.22%, the S&P 500 down 0.69%, and the Nasdaq plunging 1.33%. Storage giant SanDisk and SK Hynix ADRs dropped over 9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.98%. Asian markets followed suit—South Korea’s KOSPI index fell over 6% intraday, triggering the exchange’s "circuit breaker" to halt programmatic selling; the Nikkei 225 dropped 2.6%; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell over 7%.
2. Root Cause of the Storm: A "Debt Bomb" Brewing for Four Years
Long-term build-up: This global bond bear market began with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, compounded by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022-2023, pushing the global bond market into a multi-year bear phase.
Immediate trigger: In August 2024, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised rates, triggering massive unwinding of global carry trades and causing a "Black Monday"—the Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% in a single day, the largest drop since 1987.
Current catalyst: The yen has fallen from 155 to 165 this year. Despite Japan’s interventions in April and July, spending over $100 billion to stabilize the currency, results were minimal. At the end of July, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen intervened by instructing the Fed to sell euros and buy yen, temporarily stabilizing the exchange rate. While this operation temporarily steadied the yen, it exposed deep risks in U.S. Treasuries—selling euros to fund intervention essentially consumed U.S. dollar credit.
Core contradiction: U.S. Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, and U.S. domestic AI corporate bonds have become three major black holes draining global liquidity. AI-related bond issuance this year has reached $489 billion, far exceeding the $322 billion forecast for 2025. Global market funds cannot support all three debt pools simultaneously, causing investors to lose interest in long-term sovereign bonds, leading to concentrated sell-offs and soaring yields in U.S., Japanese, and European long-term bonds.
3. Market Impact: When the "Foundation" of Finance Begins to Collapse
Liquidity crisis spreading: The bond market sell-off has triggered global liquidity tightening. Global funds, forced to cover bond positions, have had to sell stocks, gold, and other liquid assets. This directly explains the three-day decline in U.S. stocks, gold price drops, and sharp falls in Asian stock markets.
Financial foundation shaking: Bonds are the highest-credit, most stable-yield assets in financial markets, often used repeatedly as collateral to create high-leverage investments. The ongoing bond market sell-off means the "foundation" of the global financial market is collapsing. When the safest assets are no longer safe, the entire financial system’s leverage structure must be re-evaluated.
Japan has only one last "market rescue bullet" left: The Bank of Japan is allowed only three market interventions within six months; after interventions in April and July, only one opportunity remains. Global short-selling funds will aggressively short the yen and Japanese bonds, triggering a chain reaction of bond market declines and further impacting global stock markets. As a major global financing currency, if the Bank of Japan initiates consecutive rate hikes, it could cause a total collapse of carry trades, leading to sell-offs and a "death spiral" in global stock and bond markets.
4. Outlook: The World’s Eyes Are on Jackson Hole
Only the Federal Reserve can rescue the current crisis.
The market is closely watching two key variables:
First, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 28. Powell is expected to use this high-profile platform to restate policy direction and repair damaged market credibility. The market is trying to glean clues about the September 16 interest rate decision.
Second, whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen can stabilize global liquidity by expanding tools like FIMA. Yellen has pressured the Fed to expand the FIMA repo mechanism, essentially providing large U.S. Treasury holders like Japan with a liquidity channel to "borrow dollars using U.S. Treasuries as collateral," preventing forced Treasury sales during currency interventions.
Following Jackson Hole, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting will be held from August 31 to September 1. These two meetings will provide critical guidance on global macro liquidity and policy direction.
5. Summary
The essence of the global bond market storm is the simultaneous draining of global liquidity by the three major debt pools: U.S. Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, and AI corporate bonds. When the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 5.3%, Japanese bond yields hit 30-year highs, and global stock markets collapse simultaneously, the market is systematically repricing the end of the "era of cheap money."
Japan has only one last intervention chance left, and the "death spiral" of global carry trades could restart at any time. Whether the Federal Reserve can send a clear enough stabilization signal at the Jackson Hole meeting will determine the storm’s next phase—whether it will subside temporarily or escalate into a global financial crisis on the scale of 2008. Back to trading: lying low, selling some storage, and continuing to hold good gold.
Lately, I've been lying low, too systemically lazy to write about trading, so I'll just briefly talk about trading.
Anthropic's app was below expectations, announced after hours; only crypto contracts offer hedging opportunities.
Shorted a bit of $MU at 1042 and also sold some Micron at yesterday's open; the cost control on Micron is still okay.
Went long on gold options $XAU at 3984, mentioned in previous articles and quoted tweets.
No profit-taking here, based on the following:
1. The usual pattern of rising US Treasury yields driving gold down is diverging.
2. Oil price increases and capital flows are also diverging.
What should be weak is not weak, so it is strong; long-term expectations are referenced in tweets, so continue holding.
This US Treasury issue is just a trigger, a direct reason for the market drop.
Fundamentally, it exposes problems with US Treasuries due to the US and Japan jointly selling euros and daring to affect exchange rates.
It also shows that the Bank of Japan's two interventions in the exchange rate have been ineffective.
If Japan intervenes more forcefully again, it will still be ineffective, but it must intervene.
Global hedge funds will definitely attack; if I can't kill US Treasuries, I can't kill you either. The sacrifice of Mrs. Watanabe's returns is quite substantial.
There may be a liquidity crisis caused by bonds here.
If Yushu and Changxin align with the national technology policy, then the consumer side and internal circulation align with the national economic policy.
Consumer odds are good, risk is low
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 When Xiaomi Group's Q2 financial report was released, the market's core debate focused on two issues: Is the automotive business "saving the day," or is the smartphone business "dragging things down"? From the perspective of data structure and business trends, Xiaomi is currently in a typical "gear shifting period"—the automotive sector is growing rapidly but still in the investment phase, while the smartphone base is solid but growth momentum is weakening. The ebb and flow of these two forms the most intriguing main thread of this financial report. Automobiles: From "Money-Burning Stories" to "Growth Engines" The most direct change in Xiaomi Auto's car this quarter was the continuous rise in deliveries. With capacity ramp-up and improved delivery pace, the contribution of the smart electric vehicle business to the group's total revenue is becoming increasingly undeniable. If we look solely at revenue growth, cars are almost the most eye-catching segment among all of Xiaomi's business segments, and the market generally regards cars as Xiaomi's most imaginative growth curve right now. But the term "rescue" requires caution. Although the automotive business is growing rapidly in revenue, it is still in a phase of high investment. Factory construction, R&D investment, sales and service network expansion, supply chain ramp-up—each item is a real financial expense. From a profitability perspective, the positive contribution of the automotive business to the group's profits remains limited and even somewhat dilutes the overall profit margin. In other words, the automotive business is currently more about "contributing scale" rather than "contributing profit." What truly upsets market sentiment is that the loss margin in the automotive business is narrowing, and the scale effects brought by expanded deliveries are beginning to emerge. If this trend continues, the automotive business is expected to gradually shift from being a "drag" to a "profit increase."$SNDK’s vertical expansion narrative has hit complete exhaustion. Down more than 99% from historical highs, continuous token emissions and paper-thin buy orders keep every attempt at recovery firmly capped.
While narrative peers like $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR absorbed rotational liquidity to print sharp structural rebounds,$SNDK continues to slide without finding price acceptance. Until spot demand steps in to construct a clear support floor, timing a bottom
$SNDK #CryptoRevenueVsBTCSeeing the SEC's draft, the regulatory wall is finally starting to loosen. Two exemption paths of 5 million and 75 million, plus a safe harbor clause—although it's not the final version yet, the SEC taking action on its own while stuck in Congress is significant in itself.
The CLARITY Act is set for a Senate vote on September 15, needing 60 votes to pass. The White House is optimistic, but bipartisan support isn't as solid as before. However, my view is that whether it passes or not is one thing; the direction it’s heading is another—the regulatory outlook is gradually warming up, and that’s more important than anything.
My view on BTC and ETH remains unchanged: BTC is expected to be between 68,000-72,000 within two weeks, ETH between 2,100-2,300. The rhythm: surpass 65,400 in two days, touch 67,000 in a week, and push 69,000-72,000 in two weeks. As long as 62,500 holds, it’s an upward consolidation. Bears holding out at this level, I really don’t think they can last.
Some cite the Nasdaq to argue that since US stocks will fall, BTC must follow—I don’t buy that. I remember clearly during the CLARITY Act, US stocks rose while BTC still fell. The market trades on crypto’s own logic; US stocks are at most a reference, don’t let them mislead you.
The rise isn’t over yet, stay calm. Regulation is warming, technicals are strengthening, it’s too early to talk about a top now.
$BTC $ETH 📊 $SPCX Liquidation Flash Report (August 19)
According to liquidation data, the market manipulators executed a textbook-level directional switch harvesting strategy on SPCX—1-hour shorts aggressively squeezed, 4-12 hour longs fiercely counterattacked, 24-hour longs confirmed dominance but momentum sharply faded, with total liquidations surpassing $3.33 million.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $87,200 $0 $87,200
4 hours $229,400 $141,900 $87,500
12 hours $690,000 $553,500 $136,500
24 hours $3,333,800 $1,853,100 $1,480,700
From the $SPCX liquidation data, 1-hour short liquidations crushed longs, completely wiping out long positions; the short squeeze unfolded with nuclear-level intensity, liquidation volume at $87,200—shorts dominated the short cycle, longs were utterly crushed. At 4 hours, the direction completely reversed, long liquidations overwhelmed shorts by 1.62 times, marking the manipulators’ shift from short squeeze to long liquidation, with liquidation volume soaring from $87,200 to $229,400—longs began taking control but with moderate strength, longs and shorts nearly balanced. At 12 hours, longs continued to dominate, outliquidating shorts by 4.05 times, long liquidation momentum significantly strengthened, with volume surging to $690,000—longs exerted full force, shorts were continuously harvested. At 24 hours, the direction sharply weakened, longs only slightly exceeded shorts by 1.25 times, long liquidation momentum rapidly exhausted, cumulative liquidations surpassed $3.33 million—manipulators completed the full path of “shorts aggressively squeezing → longs fiercely counterattacking → momentum exhaustion” on SPCX. Short-cycle shorts frantically harvested, 4-12 hour longs counterattacked with 1.6-4 times intensity, 24-hour control remains but is fading. This is a textbook-level double liquidation of longs and shorts, but crucially, the long liquidation dominance ratio collapsed from 4.05 times at 12 hours to 1.25 times at 24 hours, with long liquidation energy nearly depleted.
⚠️ Risk Warning: SPCX short-cycle directional switches are intense (1H short squeeze → 4H/12H long liquidation → 24H long liquidation weakening), the 12H→24H ratio narrows continuously from 4.05 to 1.25, long liquidation momentum sharply fades, risk of directional reversal is very high; 12-hour + 24-hour liquidations account for 99% of the daily total, concentration is extremely high, market volatility is extremely intense. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 19
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting the deceleration of the “old engines” and the emergence of a policy framework—mobile phones under pressure, automotive sector rescue, US Treasury yield reanchoring, and intensified storage valuation divergence, four forces converging in the same time window.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Mobile Down, Automotive Up
After market close on August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under comprehensive pressure. Shipments dropped sharply 26.5% year-over-year from 42.4 million units to 31.2 million units, revenue fell to ¥42.1 billion. Storage chip price hikes suppressed global demand, but Xiaomi optimized product mix, pushing smartphone ASP to a historic high of ¥1,351—"selling less but at higher prices." Gross margin dropped from 11.5% last year to 8.5%.
The automotive business is the biggest highlight. Smart electric vehicle revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, deliveries totaled 104,199 units, up 28.2% year-over-year. The Pengcheng series SUV pre-orders far exceeded expectations and is expected to become a core catalyst in the second half after its September launch.
"Phones support the family, cars start the business"—Xiaomi’s transformation period continues.
📜 SEC Proposes "Crypto Asset Regulation" Draft: Regulatory Framework Emerges
On August 18 local time, the US SEC announced plans to introduce "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules." Core content includes two exemptions: allowing issuers to cumulatively issue no more than $5 million within 4 years; allowing issuers to issue no more than $75 million within each 12-month period, both requiring principle-based disclosure to investors. The proposal also sets a "safe harbor" clause to establish a formal mechanism for crypto assets to exit securities classification.
This is the SEC’s first clear registration exemption framework for crypto asset financing. Although the limits are modest, the directional significance outweighs the numbers—when regulation shifts from "Enforcement First" to "Rulemaking First," the industry finally sees the outline of a compliance path.
💾 SanDisk Drops Over 9%: Valuation Divergence After Long-Term Agreements
The storage chip sector collectively plunged on August 18, with SanDisk down over 9%, SK Hynix down 9.20%, Seagate Technology down 9.16%, Western Digital down 7.43%.
The direct trigger for the plunge was the 30-year US Treasury yield soaring to 5.31% (a new high since 2007)—the rise in risk-free rates systematically suppresses high-valuation growth stocks. A deeper reason is valuation divergence: SanDisk’s year-to-date gain exceeded 550%, and after investors digested the long-term agreement benefits (a $93.9 billion contract locking two-thirds of 2028 fiscal year capacity), some funds chose to take profits at highs. Micron, Western Digital, and other storage leaders also fell, indicating the market is re-evaluating the sustainability of the storage cycle—long-term agreements lock demand but cannot prevent valuation correction pressure.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: Xiaomi’s smartphone business is raising prices amid shrinking volume, automotive business is climbing but still losing money, the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful transition; the US Treasury market is reanchoring global risk asset valuation benchmarks at 5.31% yield; the SEC’s crypto asset regulatory draft draws the first compliance path for the industry; and SanDisk’s 9% pullback after long-term agreement benefits reminds the market that even the strongest narratives must face valuation and interest rate realities. When old engines stall, risk-free rates reanchor, regulatory frameworks emerge, and industry logic divergence intensifies simultaneously—the August 2026 market is seeking a new equilibrium amid multiple forces pulling. On Unitree Technology's first day of listing, the issue price was 150.8 yuan, and the opening price surged directly to 1,100 yuan, an increase of 629.44%. Based on 404 million shares after issuance, the opening market capitalization was about 444.9 billion yuan. This is more than six times higher than the 61 billion yuan at issuance. This price has already deviated from the valuation system of ordinary manufacturing. The market is not buying Unitree's 2026 profits, nor the robot sales over the next three years. The market is betting on a longer-term outcome: Unitree will eventually become a platform-level company in the era of humanoid robots. I recognize Unitree's product capabilities. But in the long run, I am very concerned about this valuation. The core issue is simple: Unitree has proven that robots can be mass-produced, but it has not yet proven that robots can continuously make money for customers. Unitree does have some performance. Let's look at the financial data first. From 2023 to 2025, Unitree's operating revenues are 159 million yuan, 392 million yuan, and 1.699 billion yuan respectively. In two years, his income increased more than tenfold. In 2025, the company will achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 278 million yuan, net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 591 million yuan, a comprehensive gross margin of about 60.3%, and net operating cash flow of about 670 million yuan. Net profit attributable to shareholders was lower than net profit excluding non-recurring items, mainly because about 349 million yuan in share-based payment expenses were recognized that year. This impact is not part of main business cash expenditure, so when assessing operating capability, the deduction of non-recurring items is more valuable as a reference. Unitree's prospectus financial data The revenue structure has also undergone significant changes. By 2025, humanoid robot revenue will be 868 million yuan, accounting for the majority300元挑战30万｜第64天：清仓止损，重新出发 今天这个节点，值得认真记录。初始本金300元，目前总资产1619.32元，累计提现620.14 USDT。账面数字之外，更重要的是策略的彻底重构。 先说收入结构，这是过去两个月的真实积累：Star Planet发文奖励9 USDT，创作者工资520.81 USDT，世界杯活动奖励43.33 USDT，带单总收入350.49 USDT。这些是可持续的现金流来源，也是继续走下去的底气。 但交易端必须直面问题。昨天$ETH手动仓位遭遇强平，今天早上我把遗留的Martingale仓位全部平掉，彻底清空。$SNDK仓位也已全部了结，这一轮螺旋到此结束。 复盘这轮回撤，核心原因很清晰：手动交易和Martingale策略的节奏严重错位，仓位互相拉扯，导致持续被动挨打，陷入越补越亏的恶性循环。这不是市场的问题，是策略纪律的问题。 清仓不是投降，是纠错。砍掉旧习惯，放弃盲目逆势左侧交易，把重心放回箱体趋势内操作。Martingale做底仓逻辑，手动负责择时进出，仓位控制永远排在第一位。 旧章节已经翻篇，收拾好心态，重新开始。交易是长跑，活着比什么都重要。#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
Wow! The first humanoid robot stock made its debut today, causing chaos across the entire A-share market.
The issue price was only ¥150.8, but it soared directly to ¥1100 at the open, a 629% increase, pushing the market cap past ¥440 billion instantly.
However, the online winning rate was historically terrible at just 0.018%. The circulating shares are barely over 7%, with pitifully few chips, so once sentiment kicks in, it’s unstoppable. Scarce sector, AI hardware hype, retail investors rushing in like crazy—this is a classic case of telling a fantastic story first and proving real capability later.
The shareholder list is a blatant wealth show. Liang Wenfeng’s side, including DeepSeek, Illusion Square, and Nine Chapters, collectively hold over a million shares, with unrealized gains easily surpassing ¥1 billion at the open.
Lei Jun’s Shunwei group holds 16.1 million shares, with a paper gain exceeding ¥15 billion; Meituan is the largest external shareholder with 35.12 million shares, floating profits directly over ¥30 billion.
DJI missed out on a 2018 capital increase that could have brought in ¥25 billion at today’s opening price—rich people keep earning passively, while ordinary folks can’t even get a subscription. Reality is harsh.
But looking calmly, this valuation has already fully priced in an optimistic script for the next decade. The issue P/E ratio is 219x, dynamically soaring to nearly 700x, while the industry average is only about 38x.
The company’s revenue has grown from over ¥150 million to around ¥1.7 billion in recent years, with global humanoid robot shipments ranking near the top and gross margins reaching 60%, which looks solid.
However, profits after removing one-time gains dropped sharply in the first half of this year. They’re making more money but profits aren’t keeping pace—this is a clear problem.
The R&D investment over these years is just a small amount compared to the current market cap in the trillions, like a toy factory trying to support a big future story with a tiny budget.
Some professional analysts on X also think it’s completely unreasonable and all bubble, short on any rebound. Most clients are still university labs; less than 10% are actually working in factories. The core embodied large model is immature, and profits halved in Q1.
There are even comments saying they’re just a high-end toy factory dressed up in a tech coat. Three years of R&D total only a few tens of millions of USD, less than what toy giants spend in a year. The founder knows this well; expectations are ridiculously high, and it will be extremely hard to deliver.
To stabilize this sky-high valuation, they must grit their teeth and do three things: truly scale up industrial and commercial applications to fill the gap of revenue growth without profit growth; mass-produce humanoid robots, reduce costs, speed up updates, and stop relying on demo videos to fool people; and firmly maintain gross margins, or else it will just become a hollow shell sustained by financing burn.
If they fail, once the AI hardware hype fades, this ultra-high valuation will immediately become the prime target for everyone to sell off. The first day’s surge and drop already clearly signals disagreement among investors.
No matter how sexy the sector story is, performance ultimately speaks.
And it also depends on whether they can truly put the lab stuff to work in factories.The storage sector and the current $BTC belong to the same batch of risk appetite funds. Even if the three storage dummies start to pull back, it doesn't necessarily mean new incremental funds will rush into BTC; instead, funds will slowly withdraw.
The result is a sharp drop in storage and a slight drop in the crypto market, which does not indicate a capital rotation;
Now the dominance of BTC is also starting to decline simultaneously, which indirectly confirms that funds are not rotating but rather passively pulling back.Recently, the stock price of global storage chip giant SanDisk plunged more than 9% in a single day, drawing widespread market attention. As one of the most representative targets in the NAND Flash field, SanDisk's sharp fluctuations are often seen as a barometer of sentiment shifts in the storage industry. This sharp drop is not an isolated event, but rather reflects the widening gap between bulls and bears after a period of rally in the entire storage sector. The market has clearly opposed judgments regarding the sustainability of storage cycles, the fulfillment of AI demand, and the reasonableness of valuations. 1. The Direct Trigger Behind the Stock Price Plunge On the surface, SanDisk's decline may have been catalyzed by short-term news, institutional rating adjustments, or concentrated profit-taking. But the deeper reason is that the storage sector had accumulated significant gains earlier, making the stock price extremely sensitive to marginal changes in industry fundamentals. SanDisk's business structure centers on NAND Flash, and NAND prices are highly elastic; even slight price fluctuations can directly impact its profit model. When the market begins to re-examine the logic behind storage price increases, high-beta stocks like SanDisk naturally bear the brunt. From industry data, NAND Flash and DRAM spot and contract prices have all experienced significant upward trends, with some products exceeding market expectations. The surge in demand for high-capacity storage in original manufacturers and AI servers is the core driver of price strength. However, once prices reach a certain height, the market begins to worry about downstream acceptance and the true strength of demand. Especially consumer electronics, smartphones, PCs, and so onTwo-track rulemaking can create progress without creating coherence. The SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets may offer a faster path for fundraising exemptions and tokens leaving securities oversight, while CLARITY addresses the wider architecture of classification, SEC-CFTC roles, and trading markets ahead of Senate review on Sep 15.
My read: speed matters less than whether the two tracks produce compatible rules for financing, listings, and exchanges. If they diverge, early regulatory movement could still leave projects and markets facing legal uncertainty.
#SECDraftVsCLARITYThe White House meeting with the crypto industry — what the industry really awaits is not a group photo
but whether policies can be implemented in concrete areas like banking, trading, custody, and taxation
The White House, SEC, CFTC, exchanges, and traditional financial institutions sitting at the same table can certainly boost morale. But the crypto industry has suffered too much from "verbal support." In the end, whether it’s effective depends on whether things like CLARITY, the GENIUS Act enforcement, SEC rules, stablecoins, tokenized securities, and bank account access can be implemented one by one
I think the current US crypto policy is like a blueprint
The direction looks great, but the market wants to see if the construction site has really started. Regulatory friendliness doesn’t mean no regulation, but letting projects know who to register with, how to custody, what can be issued, what can’t be touched, and who is responsible if something goes wrong
This is the premise for institutions to dare to enter
Policy results are not just a phrase of "supporting innovation"
It’s about letting legitimate money no longer take detours
#白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 $xSNDK Price Update & Short-Term Outlook
Current Price: $xSNDK 1,666.99 (+5.02%)
24h High: $xSNDK 1,723.02
24h Low: $1,565.51
Market Overview:
xSNDK has shown a strong bullish move after finding a low around $1,566.91. Strong buying volume pushed the price up to a local peak of $1,679.95. The price is currently trading well above moving averages (MA5 at $1,639.23, MA10 at $1,607.21, and MA20 at $1,597.25), signaling strong momentum in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: $1,680 – $1,723
Immediate Support: $1,639 (MA5)
Key Support Floor: $1,600 (MA10 / MA20 area)
Price Prediction:
Bullish Case: If buyers maintain control above $1,660, we could see another retest of $1,680 and a push toward the $1,700 – $1,723 resistance range.
Bearish Case: If short-term traders take profits, the price might pull back toward the $1,639 support level to build strong base support before moving up again.
Do you think xSNDK will push past $1,700 today, or will we see a slight cooling-off period first? Share your predictions below! 👇$xSNDK To be honest, the current ETH is basically a replay of BTC back in the day.
The large-scale trend structure was drawn long ago; you can call it a script or a pattern, but whatever is meant to happen will happen. The US stock market has been volatile for so many days, but look at ETH—it hasn’t even given a decent pullback, just stubbornly pushing upward on its own. This isn’t called strength; it’s called trend addiction. The rise has become a kind of inertia.
The problem lies here: ETH is rising, but the smaller coins underneath are like frostbitten eggplants—not only not following, some are even digging pits to hit new lows. This scene is too familiar; wasn’t BTC like this in 2023? Big money enters the market, only eyes on those two or three big players, who cares about the small caps? The old story of “big brother rises, then second brother, then little brother catching up” seems to be over. Altcoins without demand or support will most likely become penny stocks like those in the Hong Kong market—falling endlessly until completely forgotten by the market. So I still say, if you can avoid altcoins, don’t touch them.
As for the rhythm ahead, the big picture is clear. Closing near 2000 at the end of August is a mild wrap-up; September is the main event, the real rally is waiting there; as for Q4, we’ll take it step by step, no rush to conclude now. This market, trust it, understand it, and then just wait—that’s enough.European & American Contract Market Review｜Aug 19
Today’s market shows a clear split.
Top movers: $DOS +15.16%, $XIAOMI +8.48%, $OFC +7.42%, $GRVT +7.27%, $PUMP +6.35%. DOS stands out with strong volume and momentum, while several small caps are rising on thin liquidity.
Biggest losers: $GPS -29.03%, $BEAT -14.57%, $OPN -11.69%, $BICO -10.62%, $AEON -9.66%. GPS and BEAT remain the biggest warning signals, with heavy volume accompanying sharp selling.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #SandiskValuationSplit Breaking! U.S. Treasury yields are skyrocketing, liquidity in the crypto space is in crisis! How can players save themselves?
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 4.75%, hitting a new high for the year, and the 20-year yield is even more terrifying at 5.28%!
This is not a short-term move by the Federal Reserve to raise rates, but a fiscal crisis pricing under the weight of the $40 trillion U.S. national debt. The faucet is being tightened, the opportunity cost of global capital is soaring, and high-valuation assets face a revaluation. Even more critical, Japan may raise rates as soon as September, and arbitrage funds are shifting from the yen to the Swiss franc, signaling the imminent disappearance of "cheap money" worldwide.
For the crypto space, BTC is highly sensitive to liquidity in the short term. If tonight's FOMC minutes lean hawkish, it will add fuel to the fire in the short term.
Remember: this is a period of competition between "policy rates" and "long-end yields." Be cautious with short-term bottom fishing, watch the 63,000 support level closely, and control your positions to survive! #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ $BTC Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Released: Is the Smartphone Base Stabilizing, and Can the Automotive Business Support a Second Growth Curve?
Xiaomi's latest Q2 earnings report has sparked a heated debate between bulls and bears in the secondary market.
The market and financial data clearly show that the automotive business delivery curve is soaring upward, with monthly deliveries surpassing 10,000 and continuing to increase. However, the traditional smartphone market is constrained by upstream chip and memory component cost pressures, coupled with the global device replacement cycle competition, resulting in visible compression of both gross margin and growth rate.
Many are debating whether the automotive business is rescuing the smartphone segment or if the smartphone segment is holding back the automotive business.
Separating the two businesses misses the bigger picture of Lei Jun's strategic play.
The smartphone business has transformed from a solo offensive pioneer into a super traffic funnel and cash flow ballast for the entire Xiaomi ecosystem. Hundreds of millions of active MIUI and Surging OS users worldwide form the fundamental moat for Xiaomi's hardware extensions. As long as the smartphone base remains stable, the bargaining power with upstream suppliers and cash flow generation stay intact.
The automotive business demonstrates Xiaomi's industrial manufacturing and supply chain integration capabilities that transcend hardware cycles.
Car manufacturing not only breaks the low gross margin ceiling of 5% to 10% typical in pure hardware but also elevates Xiaomi's average transaction value from a few thousand yuan to over two hundred thousand yuan. More importantly, the valuation reshaping lies in the complete closed-loop of the human-vehicle-home ecosystem at the operating system level. When cars become intelligent mobile terminals, the synergy of software ecosystem subscriptions, assisted driving, smart cockpits, and whole-home smart hardware truly opens Xiaomi's path from a consumer electronics hardware maker to a trillion-yuan technology giant.
In the short term, automotive production line expansion, R&D investment, and factory ramp-up do consume capital expenditure, but once delivery scale crosses the critical threshold, the profit elasticity released by supply chain scale effects will be astonishing.
After reading this earnings report, do you think the core engine supporting Xiaomi's valuation growth in the coming years will still be the global smartphone and AIoT base, or the rapidly accelerating automotive business?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ ⭐ BTCUSDT 4H — NEXT MOVE
BTC ~64,325 is below MA5/MA10, while MA20 sits near 63,853. Momentum is cooling, so a pullback toward support is likely before the next major move.
🟢 LONG ENTRY: 63,900–64,100 if support holds
🎯 TP: 64,600 → 65,000
🛑 SL: 63,650
🔴 If 63,850 breaks, expect 63,400–63,000.
Bias: 🟡 Pullback → possible LONG.
$BTC The market for $BTC and $ETH continues to remain stable, with $BTC and $ETH as core mainstream coins. The steady performance of $BTC and other core mainstream coins is making the entire crypto market increasingly confident in positioning towards assets further along the risk curve. The overall market risk appetite for $ETH is steadily rising. However, the current market still shows significant internal structural divergence. $OKB and $ADA are barely maintaining their trends by relying on a small group of funds, showing obvious lack of market resilience; even slight selling pressure can easily cause a breakdown and downward movement. Meanwhile, coins like $ETH, $AVAX, $FIL, and $WLD remain in a relatively weak state, passively following the price movements of mainstream coins without having core value logic to support independent rises. They struggle to attract incremental funds for active positioning and find it difficult to break away from the overall market trend independently.
Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. The above content is for market analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察
The White House met with the Crypto industry today. What’s truly worth watching is not "who attended," but whether anything concrete can be delivered.
On the surface, this is an industry roundtable.
What Crypto lacks most now is no longer a statement like "America supports crypto innovation," but concrete regulations.
The SEC is advancing token issuance rules, and the Treasury is also drafting stablecoin implementation details. So what’s really worth anticipating from this meeting is whether progress can be made on several key issues:
Can banks serve Crypto more smoothly?
How exactly can token issuance be compliant?
When will stablecoin regulations truly be implemented?
If it’s just everyone sitting down to chat and then making a few statements supporting industry development, the market might be lively for a day and then it’s over.
But if clear regulatory coordination can be formed, even solving practical issues like bank access, asset custody, and token issuance—that would be a completely different matter.
Because the real next phase for Crypto isn’t necessarily "more retail investors entering."
It’s that the infrastructure of traditional finance begins to truly embrace Crypto.
This meeting is actually less important for the short-term price fluctuations of $BTC.
What really matters is whether the U.S. continues to "control Crypto" or starts to build a legal path for Crypto to enter the mainstream financial system.
If the latter holds true, this could be a signal that U.S. Crypto regulation is moving from "statements" to "implementation."On August 18, Eastern Time, SanDisk (SNDK) closed down 9.01%. After a continuous rebound, the stock price quickly rose from a low point within a few days but then sharply fell again amid a broad sell-off in the sector. This also pressured storage stocks like Micron and Western Digital, with market sentiment clearly weakening.
This is not due to a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. SanDisk's previously released financial report remains impressive: nearly $9 billion in revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter, a year-over-year surge of over 370%, a gross margin as high as 84.6%, with outstanding contributions from the data center business, and long-term supply agreements covering several future years, securing substantial shipment and gross margin floors.
The company has also launched a large-scale buyback, and management remains optimistic about AI-driven NAND demand.
AI inference, long context, and data center demand for flash memory far exceed traditional cycles. Long-term contracts are turning "quarterly spot auctions" into a more predictable business model, with gross margins expected to remain high for longer, effectively extending the cycle.
After the previous large gains, any guidance slightly below extremely optimistic expectations can trigger profit-taking; slower price increases, gradually rising supply, and fluctuations in AI capital expenditure rhythms may all rapidly compress high valuations. The current stock price has clearly retreated from historical highs but remains highly volatile, and the market has yet to reach a consensus on the pricing logic of "how far the super cycle can go."
This round of the storage sector rally is built on supply-demand mismatches and AI narratives. As a pure NAND play, SanDisk has the greatest elasticity and sensitivity. #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 The epic buybacks by SK Hynix and SanDisk have provided a "valuation floor" support for the storage sector. Although the short term still faces pressure from soaring U.S. Treasury yields and institutional profit-taking, the signal released by the giants with real money—"We will not expand production, we will buy back shares, and we will return 100% of excess cash to shareholders"—fundamentally strengthens the long-term logic of tight supply and demand and improved profitability quality in the storage industry. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, whether the buyback news can offset the selling pressure triggered by macroeconomic negatives will be a key focus in the short-term bull-bear battle. Volume hasn't kept up, price moved first—BTC hesitates at the 65,000 threshold, who's buying, who's waiting?🤔
Last night BTC surged from 62,800 to 65,057, now consolidating around 64,600. ETH is sideways near 1,913, OKB just broke through $100, and SOL is consolidating with low volume in the 76-77 range.
All four assets are rising, but volume hasn't followed.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $120 million, with BTC shorts liquidated for $56 million. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $137 million yesterday, ending five consecutive days of outflows, with BlackRock and Fidelity showing clear buying. Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day inflow of $23.9 million.
Funds are flowing back, but the scale is not large. Prices are moving up, but trading volume is shrinking. This is not a confirmation signal, it's a probing signal.
Who's buying?
ETFs are buying, whales are buying, but all in small batches, not all-in sweeps. BTC's rise from 62,800 to 65,000 relied on short stop-losses being triggered, creating passive buying, not active incremental capital. Shorts have been cleared, easing short-term selling pressure, but new buying hasn't caught up yet.
Who's waiting?
The FOMC meeting minutes (at 2 AM Beijing time on August 20). The July meeting had a rare three dissenting votes against rate hikes. If the minutes lean dovish, rate hike expectations cool, risk appetite rises, and BTC could break 64,000; if hawkish, the market will reprice. Large funds won't heavily bet before the direction is clear; low-volume rises are probes, not attacks.
Some background signals worth noting:
BitMine increased holdings by 9,926 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 5.815 million ETH, about 4.8% of Ethereum's total supply. Institutions are buying, but for long-term positions, not short-term rallies.
Over 3.56 million BTC have not moved for more than ten years, accounting for 17.7% of total supply, a historic high. Supply is tightening, but demand hasn't kicked in yet.
The Fear and Greed Index rose to 46, market sentiment remains cautious. BTC volatility narrowed to historic lows, with 30-day realized volatility annualized at about 42%, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the tightest on record.
The significance of low-volume rises is: it tells you the direction might be right, but the timing isn't.
The 65,000 level is not a technical resistance but a psychological one. Before the FOMC minutes release, the market will likely maintain a low-volume oscillation pattern—no deep drops, no strong breakouts. After the minutes, the direction will become clear.
In practice: consider buying BTC on a pullback to 63,800 if it holds, wait for ETH support confirmation near 1,880, watch OKB on a pullback to around 98, and avoid chasing SOL on low volume.
Before volume expands, watching is safer than acting. Follow after a volume breakout, not betting on direction during low volume.
#OKX Prophet Season 2 officially launched #BitMine increased holdings to 5.815 million ETH #BTC dormant supply hits new high #Scarcity gains renewed attention $ETH $BTC $SNDK #Earnings Observer: Xiaomi Q2 earnings released, is the auto segment saving the day or are phones dragging? #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ Have you ever seen on-chain data so hot it’s burning, while the token price is as cold as an ice cellar?
XRPL is currently playing out this scene.
First, look at three sets of data and feel this split yourself:
🔥 First set: AI agent payments surpass 2 million transactions
AI agent payments on XRPL have completed over 2.09 million transactions, settling about 5,112 XRP and 2,281 RLUSD.
AI agents are discovering XRPL’s 3 to 5-second settlement and low fees are attractive for micro-payments.
🔥 Second set: Stablecoin liquidity crosses $1 billion
XRPL stablecoin liquidity has exceeded $1 billion, growing over 8% this week.
From $277 million in January this year, it has surged to over $1 billion now, more than tripling in less than 8 months.
❄️ Third set: XRP falls below $1
XRP weekly closed below $1 for the first time since November 2024. In the past 24 hours, it has struggled between $0.989 and $1.01.
From the $3.65 peak in July 2025, it has dropped 72.6%.
Got it?
On-chain usage is active, but the token price is falling.
2 million AI agent payments sound impressive, right?
But have you done the math—
Each AI agent transaction pays an average of $0.0035. Adding up 2 million transactions, the total settled amount is only 5,112 XRP—not even a fraction of a single whale’s transfer.
What’s more painful: if network fees are paid in XRP, 2 million transactions consume only 20 XRP in total.
2 million transactions, 20 XRP.
Is this demand? This is a "demand illusion."
Stablecoin liquidity is rising—$1 billion now—but XRP’s share in bridge transactions is only 0.16%.
What does this mean?
The ecosystem is using RLUSD, stablecoins, and other assets—but just not XRP.
The XRPL vehicle is running fast, but XRP as the “fuel” hasn’t even entered the tank.
But the other side of the story is equally intriguing.
🐋 Whale signal: transactions over $1 million surge 280%
In the past 24 hours, there were 38 whale transactions over $1 million on XRPL, a 280% surge compared to usual.
More importantly, in the first week of August, whales accumulated over 380 million XRP.
Some are using AI agents for tiny payments worth a few cents.
Others are making multi-million dollar moves with real money.
The tug-of-war around $1 is attracting real big money.
The question is: are these whales bottom-fishing or selling off?
No corresponding exchange inflow or outflow data has been observed yet. The direction is unclear. But the scale is there—380 million XRP accumulation is not something retail investors can do.
Here’s a more ironic fact.
Just as Ripple announced cooperation with Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea, securing its third institutional client in Korea this year—
XRP fell below $1.
Bank partnerships, AI payments, stablecoin liquidity—three positives happening simultaneously.
The token price fell.
The disconnect between Ripple’s banking partnerships and token market performance is laid bare.
XRP’s core challenge has never been "whether people are using XRPL"—
but whether XRPL’s growth can translate into real demand for XRP.
So far, it can’t.
What’s the conclusion?
XRPL’s ecosystem is expanding, XRP’s price is shrinking—this gap won’t last forever.
Either the ecosystem drives the price—AI payments grow from 2 million to 20 million, institutions truly settle with XRP, stablecoin liquidity converts into bridge demand.
Or the price drags down the narrative—$1 can’t hold, whales start selling, the market votes with its feet.
Q3 is the critical window to decide the direction.
$21.6 billion long positions are bet near $1. Either a violent rebound or a chain liquidation.
Finally, a painful truth.
2 million AI payments, 20 XRP network fees.
$600,000 credit card fees vs. 20 XRP blockchain fees.
Technology wins.
But token holders lose their pants.
$BTC $ETH $XRP #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 Vitalik dropped something yesterday, and the whole community exploded for half an hour.
He publicly said that Ethereum is evaluating a UTXO-style scaling solution.
The key is the latter part—he said concepts like Utreexo were originally promoted by Bitcoin developers.
Vitalik publicly acknowledged the technical contributions of the Bitcoin community, which almost never happened before.
Then Charles Hoskinson directly posted a facepalm laughing meme on X.
Cardano has been working on EUTXO for so many years, and now Ethereum is starting to consider UTXO.
Hoskinson had said before that Ethereum was moving in Cardano's direction; this time he probably feels his judgment has been validated.
People from the Algorand Foundation also said that what Ethereum is doing "literally looks like Cardano."
Someone who has discussed both Bitcoin's UTXO and Cardano's EUTXO is redefining Ethereum's scaling path.
ETH price hasn't moved, but the technical roadmap is shifting.
At the 1900 level, Vitalik is changing the underlying design, and Hoskinson is posting GIFs.
This isn't just a war of words; it's a design competition between the underlying architectures of two chains. $BTC $ETH Is it still possible to short $SNDK now? In my opinion, this drop is really not the top!
After SNDK's continuous surge, its valuation is high, and there are many profit-taking positions. Coupled with rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields, the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors have both pulled back. A 9% drop in SNDK is quite normal.
The focus should be on SNDK's fundamental logic! I mentioned yesterday that 1550–1600 is the support zone, and it returned there last night.
So currently:
Above 1600, first watch for consolidation and stabilization; only after breaking back above 1680–1700 can a rebound be considered to have started.
1500 is my bottom line; if the 4-hour candle closes below this, it’s more than a simple pullback.
So the strategy is simple: wait for stabilization around 1550–1600, then add positions once it breaks above 1700.
A sharp drop in a strong stock is not scary; currently, SNDK seems more like it's undergoing a reshuffle.
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 The number of active addresses on the Base chain increased by 34% over the past week, surpassing the combined total of Arbitrum and Optimism.
An L2 without a token issuance has outperformed all its token-issuing peers.
Base does not rely on token incentives; it purely grows through its application layer.
The trading volumes of AAVE and Uniswap on Base have already exceeded their volumes on the Ethereum mainnet.
Interestingly, OP and ARB have been declining recently. Funds are moving from token-issuing L2s to non-token-issuing L2s. A chain without a token is gaining market share, which is a phenomenon worth pondering. In the short term, the weakness of L2 tokens may drag down sentiment in the ETH ecosystem, but whichever L2 wins, the final settlement will still be on the Ethereum mainnet. $ETH Today Brent $BZ crude oil continues to trade around $91 per barrel, and WTI has also reached around $85. Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by the ongoing US-Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz.
The most noteworthy transmission chain now is: Strait of Hormuz risk → oil price increase → inflation expectations rebound → rate cut space compressed → US Treasury yields remain high → pressure on tech stocks and BTC.
The Strait of Hormuz itself is one of the world's most important energy transportation channels. Once the market starts to reprice shipping and supply risks, oil prices can easily shift from a geopolitical issue to a macro variable for global assets.
Especially now, long-term US Treasury yields are already high. If Brent continues to approach $95 or even $100, the market is likely to revisit a previously fading question: Has inflation truly ended?At the 1960 level, the funding rate has exceeded 0.004% for three consecutive days, yet the price remains sideways.
Normally, a positive funding rate indicates that the bulls are willing to pay a premium to hold positions, which is inherently a bullish signal.
But with the price stagnant, it means some are going long in the futures market while others are selling in the spot market, two opposing forces clashing at this level.
A similar situation occurred near 3200 in March, where the price eventually moved downward. In October, a similar structure appeared again, but that time the price moved upward. Looking at the funding rate alone cannot determine direction, but it does remind you of one thing—the current market structure is already very tight. $ETH Currently, the price of ETH is around $1,960, having risen about 3.5% over the past week.
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) saw an outflow of approximately $14 million on August 18.
At the same time, BlackRock's ETHA had an inflow of about $13 million. These two figures are nearly equal.
Grayscale has been selling while BlackRock has been buying, with these two forces offsetting each other at the same price level. Grayscale accumulated a large amount of ETH since the GBTC era at very low cost, so the current price represents pure profit for them. BlackRock represents new institutional capital entering the market, building positions in the $1900-$2000 range, with costs roughly similar to Grayscale's selling price. The market is undergoing a round of chip transfer.
The amount flowing out from Grayscale is exactly offset by the amount flowing into BlackRock, so the price remains stable. But this round of chip turnover will eventually end. When Grayscale finishes selling, the buying power will suddenly become clear.
$ETH KAITO formed its first buying zone at $0.327, but this is not a confirmation of a bottom; rather, it marks the start of a dollar-cost averaging strategy. If downside risk remains dominant, under what conditions would further declines take precedence, and under what conditions would rebound attempts become valid? According to the original text, KAITO has dropped more than 70% from its late July peak, and recent token unlock volumes have increased selling pressure. The $0.327 entry is the first tranche of a low-price buying attempt, with cash reserved in anticipation of further declines. From the project perspective, Kaito Studio, Capital Launchpad, and staking products are still operational, which is cited as supporting evidence. The core issue here is not whether KAITO alone will rebound, but rather the differentiation in capital behavior across newly listed altcoins. The market is proactively applying discounts to projects with clear token unlock schedules, and KAITO's sharp drop is a representative example of this trend. This contrasts with high-liquidity assets like BTC or ETH. Ethereum's 30-day implied volatility has dropped to 52%, the lowest since September 2025.
The RSI is around 63, not yet in the overbought zone, but significantly higher than last week's 45.
The coin price is rising while volatility is decreasing, indicating the market is gradually digesting this rally rather than panic buying.
Compared to Bitcoin, ETH is currently in a "catch-up" phase. The ETH/BTC rate has rebounded from around 0.028 to about 0.03, but it is still far below the 0.035-0.04 range for most of 2025. ETH's relative weakness is being repaired, but the road to recovery is still long. ETH/BTC returning above 0.035 would mean ETH has truly started to outperform BTC.
In the past five trading days, ETH's aggressive buy volume has exceeded aggressive sell volume by about $120 million. This amount isn't large, but the direction is consistent—tens of millions daily, for five consecutive days without interruption. ETFs are buying, whales are accumulating, retail investors are watching; these three forces are slowly forming a combined momentum. $BTC $ETH When US stocks were falling, Bitcoin didn't fall, which itself is a signal, but many people only see the word "resisting decline." Have you ever wondered why the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, while BTC is firmly holding above 64,000? Last night, things were unstable between the US and Iran, with oil prices rising and US Treasury yields pressed down, putting tech stocks under pressure. Logically, risk assets should lie flat together, but BTC didn't follow suit. This is actually capital picking sides again—not all risk assets have the same name; the crypto market is being re-priced separately. Let's first look at the current position: BTC is near 64,600, reaching a high of 64,900 overnight, just a breath away from the 65,000 threshold. ETH is around 1900, clearly following the crowd without its own opinion. There's a point that's easy to overlook. Many people are watching the price, but what truly deserves attention is the movement on the spot ETF side, where funds are starting to flow back. What does this indicate? This indicates that some people are quietly buying shares during the US market correction while prices haven't fallen. Their logic is not "crypto is going to rise," but rather that "there is currently no better place for the traditional sector." Another underestimated factor is the pace of the CLARITY Act's advancement. In the short term, it really hasn't added fuel to the market, but at least it hasn't caused any trouble, and that's enough. During the policy vacuum, the market doesn't need good news, only "no bad news." Tonight's highlight is the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are more crucial than any candlestick chart. If the minutes hint that high interest rates will be maintained even longer,$BE trading dropped by 6.81% in 24 hours but recovered +2.74% in 4 hours. Volumes increased — activity intensified.
Price is close to resistance at 210.45. The nearest support is at 206.38, a distance of 1.73%. The range has narrowed.
If it holds above 210.45, a test of 225.72 is possible.#SEC proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulation" draft, CLARITY Act to be reviewed in September. I think the overall direction of the SEC this time is generally positive for $BTC
Now the SEC has proposed financing exemptions and safe harbor mechanisms, indicating that the regulatory approach is changing: from "enforce first, explain later" to gradually "telling you the rules first."
Of course, this cannot yet be understood as the U.S. suddenly fully embracing Crypto. Which specific projects can enter the safe harbor, the extent of information disclosure required, and how it ultimately connects with CLARITY still need to be observed further.
But I actually feel that what Crypto really needs to enter the next stage is exactly these things.
Because only with clear enough rules will traditional financial institutions, listed companies, and long-term capital dare to truly enter on a large scale. Regulation may eliminate a batch of projects that rely purely on narrative financing, but for BTC, ETH, and Crypto projects with real business, in the long term, it may not be a bad thing.
What I most hope to prioritize now is to clarify under what circumstances token issuance is considered securities and under what circumstances it can be issued compliantly.
Bull markets can be driven by stories.
But if Crypto really wants to become a trillion-dollar-level or even larger long-term financial market, it will ultimately have to revolve around two words: rules 🔥ETH's current "network strengthening, price sleeping" phase, what's really holding it back? $ETH
Many complain: After Pectra (May 2025) + Fusaka (Dec 2025, including PeerDAS/EIP-7594), Blob throughput increased from 6 to 14–21, L2 settlement costs cut further, and Arbitrum/Base/Optimism continue to benefit from mainnet DA dividends; Glamsterdam (parallel execution, ePBS) is still scheduled for H2 2026. Technically, delivery is exceeding expectations, but the ETH/BTC ratio only reached 0.0296–0.0298 and has underperformed BTC this year.
The problem isn't the chain, but the capital structure:
ETF is a "slow bull, not a frenzy bull": Even on 8/18, net inflow was only $71.4 million at the largest scale, compared to BTC's $189 million the same day. ETH is seeing "institutional tentative buying, not a rush."
US retail hasn't returned: Coinbase Premium has been negative for a long time, and multiple products like FETH had zero inflow on 8/18, indicating domestic retail and small-to-medium institutions are still cautious.
Macro factors are suppressing risk asset valuations: 30-year US Treasury yields hit 5.337%, Brent crude at 91, and the SEC shifting to a "Reg Crypto" regulatory framework instead of waiting for Congress's CLARITY Act — regulatory clarity is a medium-term positive, but hasn't yet translated into buying pressure in the short term.
$ETH #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The current sideways movement is driven by overnight speculative funds linked to the crypto market and is independent of the logic of US stock institutional funds, serving only as emotional warming. When the US stock market opens at 21:30, the market will digest the industry heat of Hynix, with short-term pulse rallies squeezing shorts; after the positive factors are fully realized, profit-taking will occur, leading to a sell-off and pullback after the good news is exhausted.
The market will then enter a wait-and-see phase, awaiting the Federal Reserve minutes at 2 AM to set the direction: if the minutes are dovish, US Treasury yields will decline, supporting the storage sector; if the wording is hawkish, yields will rise, and the sector will continue to face downward pressure. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The current sideways movement is driven by overnight speculative funds linked to the crypto circle, independent of the logic of US stock institutional funds, serving only as emotional warming. When the US stock market opens at 21:30, the market will digest the hype around the Hynix industry, causing a short-term pulse surge to squeeze shorts; after the positive news is fully realized, profit-taking will occur, triggering a sell-off and pullback after the good news is exhausted.
The market will then enter a wait-and-see phase, awaiting the Federal Reserve minutes at 2 AM to set the direction: if the minutes are dovish, US Treasury yields will decline, supporting the storage sector; if the wording is hawkish, yields will rise, and the sector will continue to face downward pressure.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ ⚡ $HYPE Quick Summary
* Price: $58.499 (-0.08%)
* Support: $58.123 (MA5) | $58.063 (24h Low) | $57.033 (MA10) | $55.657 (MA20)
* Resistance: $60.497 (24h High) | $64.000 | $73.000 (Recent High)
🎯 Key Levels:
* Bullish: Break above $60.497 ➡️ Target $64.000 – $68.000
* Bearish: Drop below $58.063 ➡️ Retest $57.033 (MA10) – $55.657 (MA20)
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #OKXTraderVoices BTC surges to 65,000 while US stocks crash; how long can this decoupling last?
Last night, BTC rallied from 62,800 all the way to 65,057, with spot ETF net inflows of $137 million. However, the three major US stock indices have fallen for three consecutive days, with the Nasdaq down 1.33% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 4.98%.
$BTC: 65,000 is the watershed
BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,500. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $242 million, with $137 million in short liquidations and $105 million in long liquidations. BlackRock and Fidelity have both made significant buybacks to support the price. But there is obvious selling pressure near 65,000, and liquidity is thin; if volume shrinks and it can't break through, it will likely fall back to 64,000-64,200.
$ETH: Clearly weaker than BTC
ETH is currently priced at 1,913. While BTC rises, ETH remains flat, with selective buying of funds. In the past 24 hours, ETH short liquidations totaled $10.33 million and long liquidations $9.22 million, roughly balanced. Resistance lies between 1,925-1,930 above, and 1,880 is the lifeline below. If BTC falls back, ETH will drop faster.
US stocks: Long-term bond yields are the culprit
The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.33%, hitting a 19-year high. SanDisk fell 9.7%, SK Hynix and Seagate dropped over 9%, and all 30 components of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined.
With a risk-free yield of 5.33% in place, no matter how attractive AI valuations are, they will be drained.
Tonight's FOMC minutes, if hawkish, will make it difficult for BTC to remain unaffected $BTC Review of yesterday's view: Yesterday marked the Fibonacci retracement range 63400‑63800, favoring a bullish trend
But the market moved very strongly, briefly pausing near 64000 before directly rallying, surging to around 65000
This morning during the Asian session, there was a pullback, with the current price at 64335
Wednesday and Thursday have data releases that may bring positive news, continuing to expect bullish momentum
Updated precise retracement buy zone: 63554‑63835, waiting for the price to pull back near this range to look for buying opportunities
On the larger timeframe, the two-day resistance level is at 66315, starting from 64000 there is still over two thousand points of upside potential, focusing on this target first and then adjusting the outlook dynamically based on market conditions Previously discussed that storage is a cyclical asset, with cloud computing, electric vehicles, and AI, each narrative cycle is accompanied by demand explosion -> supply shortage -> capacity expansion -> supply exceeding demand.
The recent rebound in storage concept stocks is driven by the positive news of "continuous orders," but the stock price is no longer able to break new highs. The divergence between "price/positive news" further signals that storage has entered the early stage of a bear market.
Looking at the specific trading plan, my personal short position on $SNDK "Ant Warehouse" has been established as planned. When the price approaches a round number, partial position reduction is possible; if there is a rebound, add back. Waiting until the storage topic is rarely cared about, like a faded star, the long-term decline is about to end.🚨 SOL suddenly takes the lead! BTC and ETH strengthen simultaneously, but Asian chip stocks face a "bloodbath"
An interesting divergence appeared in the market on Wednesday:
On one side, the crypto market showed relative resilience, with SOL leading the mainstream coins and BTC steady above $64,000; on the other side, Asian tech stocks experienced a sharp sell-off, with South Korea's semiconductor leaders dropping over 7% at one point, widening the "temperature gap" in risk assets.
📈 Crypto Market: SOL shines brightest
As of now:
🔹 BTC: around $64,250, slight intraday increase, about +1% for the week
🔹 SOL: approaching $77, up about 2% intraday, the strongest performer among mainstream coins
🔹 ETH: above $1,900, up about 1% intraday, roughly +1.5% for the week
🔹 XRP: near $1, up nearly 1% intraday, but down about 2% over the past 7 days
🔹 TRX: around $0.33, slight increase
🔹 DOGE: around $0.07, up about 0.5% intraday
🔹 BNB: down to above $600, still down about 2% this week
🔹 HYPE: down over 1%, but up more than 7% over 7 days
Overall, BTC has not weakened significantly following the tech stock sell-off; instead, it remains volatile near $64,000, indicating that the crypto market's risk appetite has not noticeably deteriorated for now. (CoinDesk)
🇰🇷 The real "tragedy" is South Korea's chip stocks
The Asian market is clearly under pressure today.
Samsung Electronics fell about 7.5%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 9%, and the South Korean KOSPI index plunged over 5% at one point, with the semiconductor sector at the core of this sell-off. (AP News)
This is not just a problem isolated to the Korean market.
Previously, the US semiconductor sector was already under clear pressure, compounded by the continuous rise in global bond yields, prompting the market to reassess the risks of high-valuation tech assets and the AI industry chain.
In other words:
Tech stocks are "cooling down," but the crypto market has not yet experienced a synchronized downturn.
💵 US Treasury yields are the variable truly worth watching now
The global bond market continues to face sell-offs, with US long-term Treasury yields rising further, reigniting concerns about inflation, interest rates, and future liquidity.
An important upcoming event is the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes.
The market hopes to find more clues about the path to rate cuts in September from the minutes. If rate expectations remain hawkish, risk assets may face renewed pressure; conversely, if more dovish signals are released, BTC and high-beta assets might gain further support.
👀 So the question now is not "Did BTC rise?" but:
When US tech and chip stocks begin a sharp correction, can BTC maintain an independent trend?
If BTC can hold steady near $64,000 under such macro pressure, or even break upward again, market sentiment may shift.
Focus on three key signals next:
1️⃣ Can BTC continue to hold $64,000?
2️⃣ Can SOL sustain its strength and revive altcoin sentiment?
3️⃣ Will the Fed meeting minutes release clearer signals of rate cuts?
⚠️ **Risk Warning:** The above content is for market information sharing and discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. Just now, XRP fell below $1.
Right after Ripple announced a partnership with Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea.
The third bank in South Korea. The third partnership this year.
But what about the price? It has tested the $1 mark for the ninth consecutive trading day. Down 73% from the July 2025 high of $3.65.
The more good news, the more the price falls.
Ripple is winning, but you can't feel it.
✅ Here’s the good news:
Jeonbuk Bank becomes the first regional bank in South Korea to deploy Ripple Payments
Cross-border settlements completed in seconds to minutes, replacing the days-long SWIFT process
Operates 24/7, covering over 60 markets
The third Korean institutional partnership this year—previously KBank and Kyobo Life
Ripple’s Managing Director for Asia Pacific said: "This reflects the growing momentum we see in Korea's institutional finance sector."
Sounds impressive, right?
❌ But the old problem remains unsolved:
First, what is used for settlement?
The announcement mentions "stablecoin cross-border settlement," but does not specify whether XRP, RLUSD, or fiat currency is used.
CoinDesk directly asked Jeonbuk Bank if XRP is used for fund flows—Ripple did not respond.
Second, the previous example is right there.
KBank’s pilot used stablecoin settlement, not XRP.
Ripple has been promoting RLUSD as the institutional settlement asset over the past year.
Every partnership confirms using Ripple’s infrastructure, but none confirm using XRP.
🤔 The core contradiction in one sentence:
Ripple is expanding its territory, but XRP holders are losing money.
The more institutional partnerships, the more blurred the "bridge asset" narrative for XRP becomes.
If all banks settle through RLUSD and fiat channels—then where is XRP’s value?
🔥 What do you think?
Will Ripple’s institutional expansion ultimately drive XRP,
or will XRP be completely marginalized by RLUSD and fiat channels?
$ETH $BTC $XRP #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益