Orbit Post Sitemap
This round is a short squeeze, like a spring compressed for too long, where a large number of short positions are liquidated simultaneously, forcibly pushing the price up. Taking ETH as an example, it surged overnight from 1900 to 2280, nearly a 20% increase in a single day, but the RSI is already overbought.
If you currently hold a long position: for example, if you bought ETH at 2000 and now have an unrealized profit of 280 points, you can sell half of your position to lock in profits, and move the stop loss for the remaining half up to 2000 (around the 200MA). If it breaks below this level, it likely means this rally is just a rebound, so exit the remaining position immediately to avoid giving back all your profits.
If you haven't entered the market yet: don't rush in just because of the big surge. Suppose ETH rises to 2350 and then pulls back to 2150; as long as the pullback does not break below the previous low at 1900 and the candlestick shows a stop in the decline, this is the daily second buy the blogger mentioned. But be prepared for the possibility that the market is very strong and continues straight up, causing you to miss out. Conversely, if after the high it quickly falls back below 2000, then this rise is a short-term impulse move, and the market is likely to weaken again afterward.
This is only a technical case demonstration and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile. The Treasury ignited a fire in the $30 trillion US debt market, liquidating $1.44 billion in shorts in the crypto market. $BTC surged from $64,000 all the way to $69,888, rising 9% in 24 hours. You might think it's a "oversold rebound"? Or a "short squeeze"? Actually, neither. The real igniter is hidden in the $30 trillion US debt market. On the evening of August 19 Beijing time, the US Treasury dropped a bombshell. It announced that the long-term Treasury liquidity repurchase scale would at least double from $2 billion each time to $4 billion, covering the 10-20 year and 20-30 year maturity ranges, effective from September 9. The 30-year Treasury yield plunged from the 2019 high of 5.34% straight down to 5.19% that day, marking the largest single-day drop since the end of June. The bond market exploded, the dollar collapsed, and risk assets went crazy. Gold rose nearly 3%, and US stock futures rallied across the board. What about Bitcoin? It jumped directly from $64,000 to $69,888. Many people don't understand: what does the Treasury's bond repurchase have to do with Bitcoin? Let me clarify it for you. What has been the biggest market suppression in the past two months? It's the "high risk-free yield." The 30-year Treasury yield once soared to 5.34%—earning over 5% annually just by holding US debt, who would still want to bet on Bitcoin? Bitcoin's biggest enemy has never been regulation, miners, or anything inside the crypto circle. It's the US Treasury yield. A 5% risk-free yield is a huge mountain pressing down on Bitcoin.The most notable on-chain event during this rally: a certain whale's $117 million BTC short position was forcibly liquidated.
Several signals worth noting:
1️⃣ Short crowding: a large amount of leveraged short positions piled up below 70,000, indicating the market was unanimously bearish before, with extreme sentiment;
2️⃣ Liquidation is a result, not a cause: price increase is driven by macro expectations + capital inflow, liquidation only amplifies volatility;
3️⃣ Exchange net outflow: recently, mainstream exchanges have seen continuous net outflow of BTC, indicating long-term holders are accumulating.
Insights for ordinary people:
• When the entire network is unanimously bearish, a rebound is often near; when the entire network is unanimously bullish, beware of a top;
• Whale behavior can only be used as a reference, their capital scale and the volatility you can bear are completely different;
• Don't treat on-chain data as a prediction tool, it is a confirmation tool.
(Original interpretation, data: ChainCatcher, DYOR) #BTC #OnChainData $BTCThere is no longer a so-called "altcoin season" in the crypto space.
The market has never lacked newcomers, nor has it ever lacked capital.
Capital is fluid. As long as the crypto space continues to create wealth effects, new capital will keep flowing in.
But where will the money flow in the future?
The answer is becoming clearer:
After institutionalization, capital will only become more concentrated.
The assets that can truly receive long-term institutional allocation are likely BTC, ETH, and a very few mainstream assets, no more than ten.
So my position logic has always been simple:
90% ETH, 10% allocated to SOL, UNI, and other secondary mainstream assets.
Why prioritize ETH even over BTC?
Because the E/B exchange rate has already given the answer.
The long-term structure I understand, institutions obviously understand as well. If ETH’s odds relative to BTC are higher over the next 2–3 years, then from a capital efficiency perspective, there’s no need to hold two highly correlated assets simultaneously; instead, concentrate the core position on ETH with the higher odds.
As for the so-called "altcoins" and "altcoin season," these are increasingly outdated concepts.
Five years ago, the era when small investors could get rich quick by speculating on altcoins did exist.
But the market structure has changed.
If today you still put the vast majority of your positions on the so-called "altcoin season," waiting for funds to rotate there automatically after BTC and ETH rise, you are more likely to face continuous new lows rather than sudden wealth.
Newcomers will leave.
But don’t worry about the crypto space lacking people.
The market will never lack the next batch of newcomers, nor will it ever lack the next influx of capital. $OKB didn't follow the main rally this time.
Last night the entire market surged, BTC +7%, ETH +18%, SOL +11%, but OKB only moved from 97.8 to around 98, basically unchanged. Don't think it's weak, brothers; it was the only one among the 6 coins to go long against the trend in the past two weeks, running from 85 to 108. That rally has long finished. Now it's just digesting the pullback from the "sell the fact" after the 8/19 contract upgrade below 100. There's no reason for it to lead the BTC short squeeze this time.
The fundamentals haven't deteriorated at all. OKX permanently locked the total supply at 21 million (burned 65.25 million last year), the hard deflation logic is stronger than anyone else's; in Q1, ICE (NYSE parent company) made a strategic investment with a $25 billion valuation and even took a board seat; X Layer and the Exchange OS ecosystem are growing comprehensively. This is not a coin without a story; the story has been told and it's waiting for the next wave.
Key levels are clear: 95-97 is strong support (previous highs turned support plus no negative news in the ecosystem), 100 is a round number and the boundary between bulls and bears this round. It's stuck at 98 now, with a trapped zone above 100-103. As long as 95 holds below, the bullish structure remains.Bitcoin just broke through the $69,000 mark 🚀, with a single-day increase of over 6%. The direct trigger for this strong surge was the U.S. Treasury's announcement to increase the purchase scale of long-term government bonds, which raised market liquidity expectations and collectively boosted risk assets.
This rapid rise caught many short-term traders betting on a decline off guard. Data shows that the total liquidation amount in the global cryptocurrency contract market exceeded $1 billion within 24 hours, with short positions being the hardest hit. Concentrated liquidations further amplified price volatility, creating a typical "short squeeze" scenario.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin's breakthrough of a key round number has clearly shifted short-term sentiment to optimism. However, it is important to note that this macro-driven impulsive rise often comes with high volatility risk. The actual pace of the Treasury's bond purchase plan, subsequent inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's policy path could all become variables affecting the trend.
For ordinary investors, the current phase calls for more focus on position management and risk control rather than blindly chasing the rally. The intense volatility in the contract market reminds us that leverage is a double-edged sword: profits can be substantial if the direction is correct, but losses can be equally rapid if it reverses.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. This content is for market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance and exercise independent judgment. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $DOGE#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
$BTC surged from around $64,000 last night to break through $69,000, with a single-day gain exceeding 5%, and $ETH also rallied in sync. On the surface, it looks like Crypto suddenly strengthened, but I think the real variable worth paying attention to is actually in the US bond market.
Yesterday, the US Treasury announced it would increase the liquidity repo scale for 10–30 year long-term Treasury bonds from a maximum of $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion. Subsequently, the 30-year US Treasury yield quickly fell from a previous high of about 5.34% to around 5.2%, and BTC, gold, and US stock risk assets all rebounded together.
But there is a very important distinction here: this is not QE. The Treasury is improving liquidity in the US bond market but has not solved the fiscal problem behind the US debt exceeding $40 trillion. Also, this BTC rally clearly includes significant short covering, with market data showing over $1 billion worth of short positions liquidated.
So I will not immediately conclude a new bull market has started just because it broke through $69,000. Although I don’t think the bull market has begun, I still hope $BTC can hold above $69,000 to give all crypto users some hope.
If the market gradually realizes that the US must continuously intervene in long-term financing costs, then another layer of BTC’s logic might be traded again: as sovereign debt becomes increasingly difficult to manage, will the scarcity of non-sovereign assets regain a premium?
If so, this could be the core narrative of the next BTC bull market #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Just finished reading the July FOMC meeting minutes; several key points are worth discussing.
The minutes show a 9:3 vote to maintain the current interest rate, with Logan, Harker, and Kashkari dissenting in favor of a rate hike. Most participants support holding steady, but if inflation does not continue to decline, policy may need to tighten further. Notably, the minutes mention AI infrastructure financing and stock valuations as potential risks to financial stability.
CME data indicates a 67% probability of no rate hike in September, with the chance of a hike dropping to around 30%. Cooling inflation gives the Fed some breathing room, but core inflation remains above 3%. Employment data is weakening, with July nonfarm payrolls showing negative growth and retail sales declining more than expected.
For the market, these minutes basically confirm no rate hike in September but do not completely close the door on future hikes. The short-term positive is the reinforced expectation of "no hike," while the long-term pressure lies in the possibility of high rates persisting longer.
BTC has risen from 62,800 to 70,000, supported not only by Treasury buybacks and short squeezes but also by a shift in macro expectations. However, AI valuation risks are becoming a monitoring focus for the Fed; if the AI bubble bursts, the spillover effect on crypto could be larger than expected.
It's better to remain cautious with position management in the second half of the year.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $SPCX retreated to around $140 after hitting resistance at $150. The core conflict lies in the immediate selling pressure from the unlocking of 319 million shares versus the long-term fundamentals, with $135 becoming the key support line.
On the market front, following the unlocking of 912 million shares on August 6, another 319 million restricted shares will be unlocked on August 20, directly pressuring the price due to the short-term expansion of the circulating supply. Multiple previous attempts to break through the $150 resistance failed, and the chip structure noticeably loosened before the unlocking event.
The driving factors ranked by impact weight are: short-term liquidity pressure caused by the unlocking of restricted shares, macro risk appetite tightening due to the 9-to-3 rate hike split revealed in the Fed's FOMC minutes, and the valuation floor support from a 92% year-over-year revenue growth. The early low-cost chip holders' need to realize profits has squeezed buying liquidity in the short term.
The trigger condition for a stabilization and rebound scenario is completing turnover above $135. If institutions show absorption capacity between $135 and $140, and the selling pressure from unlocking is below expectations, the price is likely to retest the $150 resistance. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a daily close below $135 with increased volume.
The trigger condition for a breakdown scenario is losing the $135 support. If early low-cost chips flood the market after unlocking and the rate hike split suppresses market risk appetite, the price will seek new support downward. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a quick recovery above $140.
Once the market digests the selling pressure from the 319 million unlocked shares and the selling momentum fades, the short-term bearish scenario will fail, and the price will return to a valuation logic based on business growth.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the volume changes at the $135 support level and the actual turnover and absorption of chips below $140 after the restricted shares unlock.
#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大Today's crypto scene is quite interesting. $BTC once surged to around $69,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%, and ETH climbed back above $2,000. Even more astonishing, shorts in a single hour have exceeded $1 billion. Many people's first reaction is: The cow is back! Hurry up and buy! But instead, I started looking at three other things. First, look at $ETH Ethereum. If BTC rises and ETH rises too, it means funds are not just chasing Bitcoin. If ETH continues to outperform BTC, market risk appetite may be truly recovering. This is also worth paying attention to for mainstream knockoffs like SOL, XRP, BNB, and SUI. Second, if this $SOL round is just BTC's own market, altcoins won't be truly comfortable. But if SOL, XRP, HYPE, and SUI start to see sustained volume growth, things will be different. This means funds are shifting from "safe haven" to "offense." Third, and what I most want to remind you: don't mistake liquidation for a bull market confirmation. This BTC surge was largely driven by passive buying after short sellers were forced liquidated. This kind of market is most likely to give the illusion: prices have risen, so the fundamentals have improved; In fact, many times the price rises first→ short positions are liquidated→ passive buying continues to push prices higher→ retail investors start chasing → seeing the price rise, further heating up sentiment. So the real thing to watch isn't whether it can rise another $5,000 tonight. But what comes next: can BTC hold its ground? Can ETH keep up? The narrative around this story was intensified again tonight, but this time it's not about stock prices, it's about real cash price transmission. Samsung's chip foundry quotes have been raised by up to 15%, Morgan Stanley warns that mature process DRAM prices may rise by 50% in Q3, and DDR4 spot prices have increased by 0.67% in a week. A few days ago, everyone was arguing whether the "super cycle" was disproven, but what they were really arguing about was stock price sentiment; the real foundation of the narrative is the price increase— as long as downstream accepts the price hike, the profit revaluation of the supply chain is solid. Stock prices can flip twice in a day, but price transmission is a slow variable that moves quarterly. Don't let the noise of K-line charts mislead your judgment of the fundamentals. Those who understand, understand.🚀 BTC $69K: Real Demand or Short-Covering?
$BTC briefly broke $69K before easing toward $68K, while $ETH showed even stronger momentum.
The key now isn’t the breakout — it’s whether spot demand can sustain the move after short covering fades.
📈 Holding gains + healthy volume = stronger confirmation.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoWhen a large bullish candlestick appears on the candlestick chart, the on-chain ledger lies. During the Asian session, spot market trading volume surged by 160%, but the total TVL—an indicator of real capital accumulation—remained unusually calm. This is not a simple slip-up, but a carefully planned liquidity game. 🔍 ══════════════ Core Survey: The Fatal Divergence 📌 Between Price and TVL [Total TVL in the Market] $81.969 billion | 24h +2.25% 📌 [$BTC Price Performance] $69,702 | 24h +8.25% 📌 [$ETH Price Performance] $2,266 | 24h +18.47% 📌 [Total Market Volume] $178.85 billion | 24h +160.56% Detective Perspective: Against the backdrop of an 8% surge in $BTC and an 18% surge in $ETH, total TVL only slightly increased by 2.25%. What does this mean? The passive growth in TVL almost entirely comes from the valuation effect of asset price increases, rather than actual new capital locking. Combined with data of doubling trading volume, the truth emerges: whales are using high volatility to sell spot or contract hedging on exchanges, with funds not actually flowing into on-chain DeFi protocols. This is a "high turnover, low accumulation" rallying and selling out. 🕵️ ══════════════ Fund-Driven Secrets: Who Is Taking on the Overflowing Liquidity? On $ETH mainnet, it dominates with $45.83 billion TVL#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
69000 is a "breakthrough," but not a "reversal confirmation." The core driving force behind this rally is the Treasury's buyback of U.S. bonds plus concentrated short squeeze, not incremental funds chasing the rally. The real test lies at 70000.
On August 19, BTC surged over 8.7% to reach 69749 USD, rising about 5.7% in 24 hours. The driving logic is very clear—the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of long-term bond buybacks will at least double to 4 billion USD each time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and the dollar weakened. On the same day, the White House held a crypto summit, and the SEC simultaneously proposed the Regulation Crypto draft. These three events combined directly triggered the short squeeze. Coinglass data shows that within 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.61 billion USD, with shorts accounting for 1.44 billion. Bitcoin shorts alone were liquidated for 893 million USD, with 531 million completed within one hour.
ETFs are also cooperating. On August 17-18, Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows totaling 487 million USD over two consecutive days, led by BlackRock's IBIT.
How far can it go? 69,500 is the position of the 200-day moving average and is also recognized as the bull-bear dividing line. Standard Chartered's Kendrick believes that after breaking through 65,500, the cycle low has formed, with a year-end target of 100,000 USD. Trader Killa is more aggressive, looking at 150,000 USD long-term. Looking at tonight through the lens of a card game framework. $BTC short squeeze, over 90% of short positions were liquidated, many shorts are blaming themselves with hindsight, saying "I shouldn't have shorted." Stop. Whether a decision is good or not depends on the expected value at the moment you placed the bet, not the outcome of this hand—you entered the short at a reasonable position, with a stop loss, and according to discipline. Even if this time you got stopped out by the short squeeze, in the long run, it’s still a positive expected value move. What really needs reviewing is position size and stop loss placement, not the "direction" itself. If you attribute every loss to "I shouldn't have shorted," you will keep missing the next real top. Don’t be a slave to outcome-based thinking. 1. Core Data on August 19 Liquidation (Short Squeeze, Massive Liquidation) Total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours was about $1.345 billion, with 105,000 traders liquidated, with short positions accounting for the vast majority, a typical short squeeze market. - Bitcoin and BTC total liquidation: about $710 million. Short liquidation: $662 million, long positions only 48 million. Bears are the hardest-hit area. Peak liquidation: Around 23:00, prices surged rapidly, with chain liquidations driving the price up. - Ethereum and ETH total liquidation: about $366 million; short liquidation: $328 million, long positions only $38 million, following BTC to complete short squeezing, regaining the $2,000 mark. Interpretation: 1. Previously, a large amount of capital saw the rebound fail and placed high-leverage short positions; The price breaks through a key resistance upward, passive closing of short positions, and closing buy orders further pushes the market upward and amplifies the gains. 2. The amount of long liquidation is very small, indicating that spot bulls have not exited with large-scale stop-losses; the rise mainly comes from short covering in futures. 3. Liquidation volume reaching nearly 6 times the 7-day average is a short-term extreme liquidation. After a short squeeze, profit-taking volatility is likely to occur. 2. Drivers of this round of gains 1. Macro expectations warm: The market trades on expectations of Fed rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields retreat, and overall risk assets are recovering. 2. Short squeeze is a direct pusher: a large number of hidden short positions are broken down, leading to chain liquidations forming a short-term pulse upward trend. 3. ETH catch-up recovery: ETH was significantly weaker than BTC earlier,The second largest short squeeze day in crypto history has arrived again.
According to Coinglass data, on August 19th, the total short liquidations across the network were about $1.74 billion, making it the second largest single-day short liquidation volume in history, only behind the $2.46 billion short liquidation on October 10, 2025. At that time, long liquidations reached as high as $16.7 billion (total liquidation record was $19.16 billion, the largest liquidation day in crypto history, showing how much impact the 10/10/last year or 10/11/domestic event had on the crypto space, directly cutting off the bull market progress).
On August 19th, the total 24-hour liquidations were about $1.9 billion, with shorts absolutely dominating (about $1.74 billion, over 90%), and longs only about $180 million. Among these, BTC contributed the majority (about $1.1 billion+ in shorts), and ETH about $460–510 million. The single-hour peak saw short liquidations of $1.1–1.23 billion.
The short squeeze was driven by a combination of crowded high-leverage short positions + price breakout + forced liquidation feedback loop.
Positions were crowded on the short side, with a significant number of traders (especially high-leverage players) continuously adding shorts. For example, a particularly conspicuous whale short appeared on Hyperliquid:
One address had an 1800 BTC short position (about $117 million, 40x leverage) fully liquidated; two other addresses combined triggered about 1177 BTC (about $77 million) in liquidations.
These high-leverage short liquidations were highly concentrated around similar price levels. This sudden price surge caused a chain reaction:
BTC rapidly surged and once touched near the $70,000 high, with a significant 24-hour gain.
The sudden price spike caused high-leverage short margin to be insufficient, forcing exchanges to buy to close positions, further pushing prices up and liquidating more shorts.
This positive feedback loop is especially violent in the perpetual futures market.
Especially with very high leverage, such as tens of times leverage, and order book liquidity thinning at key price levels. On-chain perpetual futures platforms can see whale positions, making them easy targets.Record a structural signal from the commodity side, which perfectly corresponds to the crypto short squeeze. LME copper inventory surged 50% in three days, and the once abnormally high spot premium instantly collapsed, sharply reducing the short squeeze risk. The logic is simple: when inventory is rapidly replenished, the fuel for the short squeeze is gone, and the price structure returns to normal. The same applies to $BTC's short squeeze these past two days—the real factor determining whether it can continue is how much "closable short positions" remain. The copper market tells you that abnormally high premiums are never the norm; mean reversion is just a matter of time. Look at positions, not sentiment. How much fuel do you think is left for this crypto short squeeze?Currently, TRUMP is hovering around $1.6-$1.7, with a 24-hour fluctuation of about 10-20%, and the trading volume can reach around 200 million. The market cap is around 300-400 million dollars, which looks okay. But looking back, it peaked at about $75 in January 2025, and now it has been halved twice, dropping more than 97%. Nearly 1 million addresses have collectively lost $3.8 billion, while Trump-related parties have earned over $600 million from royalties and related businesses. The market remembers this contrast very clearly.
Why is this happening? There are three core reasons.
1⃣️ First is supply. There are a total of 1 billion tokens, with about 200-250 million currently circulating. The majority remains in Trump-related entities' hands and is being unlocked daily as planned. Analysis shows that about one to two million dollars worth of new chips are released every day. When the market cap was only 300-400 million, this pressure was no joke; any rebound was easily crushed.
2️⃣ Second is the narrative exhaustion. It’s just a political + meme coin, relying on events like elections, inaugurations, and dinners to hype up. Once the events pass, the hype fades. There’s no real use case, no sustained income, just sentiment holding it up. When sentiment fades, the price follows.
3️⃣ Third is regulatory and trust issues. Some senators have publicly called on the SEC to investigate, citing huge losses for retail investors and big profits for insiders. When such news comes out, the already fragile buying interest becomes even more hesitant.
The probability of further decline is not low. Unlocking will continue until around 2028, and daily supply pressure won’t suddenly disappear. Political news can create short-term spikes, but these are often followed by deeper pullbacks. If the overall crypto market weakens or another round of negative regulatory news hits, $1 or even lower is possible. Some institutions’ baseline scenario is around $1 by the end of the year.
Meme coins have never been long-term assets; they are sentiment amplifiers. When sentiment is there, they can soar; when sentiment leaves, only chips remain. Trump coin’s current state is a typical "hype is over, supply remains" situation. Short-term you can bet on news, but long-term, structural selling pressure is still there.
Be sure to clearly understand the risks before getting involved. BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？📈 行情数据显示，BTC在盘中最高触及69888美元，距离70000美元大关仅一步之遥。现货市场同步走强，ETH最高触及2119美元，涨幅超过8%。市场情绪明显回暖，但短期追高风险也在积聚。 这轮急涨的直接导火索，是美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购规模。30年期美债收益率从此前19年高点5.33%快速回落至5.19%。长期利率是压制BTC最紧的一根绳索，如今绳索松动，风险资产自然获得喘息空间。 杠杆清算的连锁反应进一步放大了涨幅。63000美元上方堆积了大量高杠杆空头头寸，当价格突破关键阻力位后，接连触发强制平仓，形成空头回补的燃料，推动价格快速上行。与此同时，ETF资金持续流入也在提供支撑，贝莱德旗下IBIT单日净流入超过2亿美元。 从当前结构看，69000美元附近存在较多获利了结盘，短线需要震荡整理来消化抛压。第一支撑位在65800至66000美元区间，若价格能稳住该区域，下一目标看向71000至72000美元。但若失守65000美元，本轮逼空结构可能遭到破坏，回调深度将加大。 操作上，追高已不划算。更稳妥的策略是等待价格回踩65800至9 votes vs 3 votes is just the surface: the minutes hide a far more hawkish Federal Reserve than the vote suggests
You think 9:3 is the whole truth?
Naive.
In the early hours of August 20 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the July FOMC meeting minutes.
The headline is: 9 votes in favor, 3 votes against, maintaining the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% unchanged.
Dallas Fed's Logan, Cleveland Fed's Hummock, and Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari voted against, advocating a 25 basis point rate hike.
Only 3 people opposed, right?
Wrong.
The minutes show that the voices supporting a rate hike are far more than just these 3.
Two other presidents without voting rights in July—Kansas City Fed's Schmidt and St. Louis Fed's Moser—publicly stated after the meeting that if they had voting rights, they would have voted for a rate hike.
According to the Fed minutes' wording habits, "many" among the 19 decision-makers means nearly half.
This is not just 3 opposing votes. This is a hawkish stance from nearly half the members.
What do those supporting rate hikes think?
They believe price pressures are "broad-based." The committee should adopt a more restrictive policy stance.
More painfully, this sentence: if no action is taken now, the future may face "larger and more costly" consecutive tightening.
In plain language: if you don't raise rates now, you'll have to raise them more aggressively later.
Some officials even believe current financial conditions "are insufficient to bring inflation down to 2%."
Inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years. July's total PCE price inflation rate was 4.1%, core PCE 3.4%.
The Fed's toolbox has never discarded the hammer of rate hikes.
But how did the market react?
After the minutes were released, Bitcoin rose more than 5%, returning to $69,000. Ethereum was even stronger, surging nearly 20% in one day.
Over $1.8 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours.
A hawkish minutes, yet the crypto market is celebrating?
Why?
Because the content of these minutes is already "lagging behind the recent weak economic data."
Two things happened after the minutes meeting:
First, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000. The market expected an increase of 80,000. May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000.
Second, July core CPI year-on-year dropped to 2.5%, the lowest in over five years.
CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 70% at the end of July to 32.7% now.
The data is softer than the minutes, and the market chooses to believe the data.
But here lies a bigger trap.
No official in the minutes supports a rate cut.
The policy debate has clearly shifted from "when to cut rates" at the beginning of the year.
September may stay unchanged. But what about October? December?
Federal funds futures pricing still shows a 65% chance of a rate hike within the year.
65%.
What does this mean for crypto?
The narrative of "rate peak is set" is being reopened.
The market is now pricing in no change in September. But what about October and December?
Fed Chair Powell is still pushing to reduce the annual meetings from 8 to 6. Fewer meetings = greater impact per decision.
Don't be lulled by the 67% probability of no change.
The real signal from the minutes is: the Fed's "rate hike option" has never left the table.
The market is never trading the current rate but the future expectation gap.
At the end of July, the market thought the rate hike probability was over 70%, but no hike happened.
Now the market thinks September will likely stay put, but what if it doesn't?
This $69,000 crypto rebound is trading on "weaker data = rate hike canceled."
But what if inflation just won't come down?
What if the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy prices?
What if the AI investment boom continues to drive inflation?
The Fed's hammer is still hanging on the wall.
You think it won't fall—
But it could at any time.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Note a new variable in the computing power sector. Cerebras has launched the CS-4 system to compete with Nvidia, claiming inference speeds up to 30 times that of GPU servers. The numbers should be taken with a question mark—vendor self-tested benchmarks have always been somewhat inflated—but the direction is worth noting: as AI shifts its focus from "training" to "inference," dedicated inference chips are beginning to directly challenge the territory of general-purpose GPUs. Inference is the stage that truly consumes computing power long-term and generates real revenue. Nvidia's moat is deep on the training side, but the inference battlefield is increasingly targeted by challengers. Don't just focus on one company in this narrative. Let's watch and see who can really bring that 30x from a PPT slide into production environments. For those who trade crypto, I prefer to divide them into two types:
One knows they are playing a game of probabilities, the other mistakes a streak of good luck for their own trading talent.
The former will keep positions and stop losses, and also leave themselves a chance; the latter is often just one needle away.🎲
This time $BTC suddenly surged, about 148,000 trading accounts were liquidated within 24 hours, involving positions worth about $2.37 billion, of which shorts accounted for about $2.16 billion, more than 90%. In the most intense hour, shorts accounted for 93.5%.💥
Some people were still asleep when their positions were forcibly liquidated by the system. The market won’t wait for you to wake up, nor will it show mercy just because you guessed the direction right a few times.
I think what really knocks people out is usually not a single wrong judgment, but excessive leverage that takes away all the space to correct mistakes and wait. The liquidation amount is not cash disappearing into thin air, but a large number of positions forcibly closed, and the pain is real when it hits the account.
So I won’t assume the market can keep rallying just because the shorts have been liquidated. The short squeeze fuel has been largely consumed; whether it can go further depends on whether real buying can pick up.🧠
This is the crypto market—you never know where the next needle will come from, but you can decide whether you die on leverage.👀It now seems that I really am "standing on the mountaintop feeling the wind." The core reason for SPCX's recent decline is not a failure of long-term logic, but rather the short-term market digesting the huge selling pressure brought by the "massive unlocking".
The price oscillating around 140 is precisely because the market faced another wave of about 319 million shares of restricted stock unlocking on August 20, which is already the second large-scale "bloodletting" this month (912 million shares were unlocked on August 6).
A brief summary of the current bull and bear logic:
· 🔻 Bears (short-term main sellers): imbalance in chip supply and demand. This unlocking caused a surge in the circulating supply, with early employees and investors having very low costs, creating huge selling motivation. Additionally, the previous attempt to break through the key resistance at $150 failed, putting technical pressure on the price.
· 🔺 Bulls (long-term optimism): solid fundamentals. Actually, the financial report is explosive, with revenue up 92% year-over-year, and both Starlink and AI businesses booming. Institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic about the space economy long-term, and NVIDIA, Harvard, and others are increasing holdings, indicating the long-term logic remains intact.
Although many see this pullback as a long-term "golden pit," the unlocking pressure right now is too direct.
If it falls below 135, it really means cutting losses and needing to find a lower position for the long term.
"Optimism" and "decline" are not contradictory: long-term optimism is for the stars and the sea, while the short-term decline is because too many tickets were suddenly issued. $SPCX #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 8.20 Midday Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
The pullback strength given in the morning was limited, which is a normal correction and repair after a surge and pressure. However, the technical-level repair is still ongoing, and attention should be paid to the strength of the support levels below. The short-term support for the price ratio is temporarily seen in the 68500-69000 range, while the upper side looks around 69800. Do not be too aggressive before the volume breakout above the previous high of 70450. The support around 2250 for Ethereum is still not very stable, but as of now, it cannot be considered invalid. The overall correction trend continues to focus on the 2230-2250 support range, with the rebound position first seen at 2270-2280. $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH Looking at tonight's cross-asset rally together, a common denominator emerges: the US dollar is weakening. $BTC is up 7% in 24h, spot gold has surpassed 4,500 reaching a new high since June, and silver has surged over 5% in a single day — it's not a single narrative driving this, but a significant weakening of the dollar index causing all dollar-denominated assets to be revalued simultaneously. The Treasury has doubled the scale of its bond repurchases, and US debt has exceeded 40 trillion, all pointing to the same thing: the market is pricing in "devaluation." Interpreting $BTC's rise alone as a "crypto bull market return" risks misunderstanding the driver. What really deserves attention are the dollar index and real interest rates, as they are the main gatekeepers of this broad rally. Data won't play along with your narrative.Last night, the U.S. Treasury made a big move by directly expanding the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, doubling the single operation limit from $2 billion to $4 billion. Once the news broke, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index plunged, marking the largest drop in three weeks, which directly drove a broad rebound in gold and the crypto market. Market liquidity instantly eased, which is the core trigger of this round of the market rally.
However, there is a risk point that everyone must pay attention to: the latest Federal Reserve July meeting minutes showed no hint of rate cuts throughout, completely diverging from the market's previous expectations of rate cuts. Currently, inflationary pressure persists in the market, compounded by the stalemate in U.S.-Iran relations, restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, and continuously rising oil prices. Inflation pressure is hard to alleviate, making the probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September very high, with even some debate about rate hikes. The macro environment is not entirely favorable.Genius Trader - Little Soybean (Day6)
Bullish rebound, quick return
$ETH
Daily chart: Ethereum is the brightest star today, with a 24-hour increase once breaking 20%, reaching a high of 2336, far surpassing Bitcoin's gains. It has been emphasized multiple times before that Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways for two weeks with Bollinger Bands tightening to the extreme; once the direction is chosen, it will run wildly.
The 200-day moving average at 2004 and the 1986-2000 resistance zone were directly pierced by a large bullish candlestick, with trading volume surging by 50%. ETF inflows have been net positive for three consecutive days, totaling about $345 million in August, signaling a clear return of institutional funds.
On the macro side, the Ministry of Finance's bond repurchase to suppress yields is a natural positive for high-beta assets like ETH — a weaker dollar and lower interest rates increase the duration and elasticity of risk assets. In the short term, 2072 is the Fibonacci 161.8% extension level, which was touched today, but if Bitcoin pulls back, Ethereum will likely retreat from the high to test support at 2130-2150.
Undoubtedly, the rhythm this month is to buy on the dip. Trump's White House names: CFTC Chairman Selig is pushing Hyperliquid $HYPE to enter the US in full compliance.
$HYPE rose +15-20% that day. This is not sentiment, but a repricing.
Currently 0 US users. The US is the world's deepest derivatives market, HL is the absolute leader in on-chain perpetuals, with annual trading volume reaching trillions of dollars. Opening the US market = TAM directly steps up.
99% of fees are used to buy back and burn HYPE. Every additional US trade accelerates deflation. This is currently the cleanest flywheel, with no VC grabbing shares.
White House + CFTC endorsement = institutional legitimacy. ETFs and listed companies already hold large positions; once the compliance channel is opened, the nature of the funds will change.
HL is already trading stocks, crude oil, index perpetuals, with 24/7 pricing capability being noticed by traditional markets. Selig previously publicly stated he wants to bring this type of on-chain market into the US.
Today the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee has more details. The path is being paved, not just slogans!Detail the power shift in the AI hardware narrative. Marvell secured Google's custom chip orders and expanded its collaboration with Google to cover AI, storage, and networking chips across the board; on the same day, Broadcom dropped 2%. The custom chip (ASIC) market is gradually shifting from "one dominant player" to "multiple players sharing the pie" — cloud providers increasingly prefer in-house development plus multiple suppliers to reduce reliance on a single vendor. This trend is worth watching: whoever wins the custom orders from hyperscale cloud providers locks in a certain cash flow for the coming years. The AI narrative is quietly shifting from "whose GPU is stronger" to "who can help cloud providers save money." Those who understand, understand.$HYPE
🔥 HYPE up 12% to $69.31, MACD is deeply negative at -0.593—that's a screaming divergence. RSI6 at 44 is weak, KDJ at 41/44 is showing zero conviction. SAR at $70.22 is resistance. The 24‑hour high of $72.62 is a distant memory. "Linera as next Hyperliquid" narrative is just noise. **Short at $69.31, target $67.50. If the SAR holds, $66.00 is next.**$RE
🌀 RE up 15.22% to $0.527, but MACD is deeply negative at -0.00697—that's a massive bearish divergence. RSI6 at 39 is weak, KDJ at 32/33 is scraping the bottom. SAR at $0.543 is resistance. The 24‑hour high of $0.556 is a brick wall. This is a classic dead cat bounce. **Short at $0.527, target $0.515. If the SAR holds, $0.505 is next.**$OL
🔷 OL up 11.26% to $0.00497, RSI6 at 75.11 is BLOWING OFF. KDJ at 79/78 is exhausted, MACD histogram is flattening—momentum fading fast. SAR at $0.00486 is thin support. The 24‑hour high of $0.00504 is a brick wall. **Short at $0.00497, target $0.00485. If the SAR breaks, $0.00475 is next.**#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
I believe this round of BTC breaking through $69,000 is more a resonance of sentiment repair and short covering rather than a fundamental reversal. In the short term, caution is needed for the risk of a pullback due to insufficient volume.
The judgment is based on three aspects: first, VanEck pointed out that multiple capitulation indicators have been triggered, usually indicating that selling pressure is nearing its end; second, Bitcoin's volatility suddenly surged after being at a cyclical low, consistent with a low-volatility breakout technical pattern; third, ETH simultaneously surged 8% with increased volume, showing funds flowing back from altcoins to mainstream coins, but OKX spot trading volume has not significantly expanded, lacking sustained buying support.
Specifically, BTC reached an intraday high of $69,888 on August 19, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%, but then fell back to around $68,000, indicating heavy selling pressure above; ETH reached a high of $2,119, with gains exceeding 8% at one point, but momentum weakened afterward. Current market participation is low, and if the 24-hour trading volume cannot be maintained above $30 billion, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
First, a breakout after low volatility needs to be confirmed with volume, otherwise it is prone to be a false breakout; second, when mainstream coins rise simultaneously, priority should be given to observing whether ETH continues to lead, as it is a barometer of fund inflow; third, if the holding cost is below $65,000, $67,500 can be set as a reference take-profit level to avoid profit giving back.
@OKX星球 Every time there's a one-sided short squeeze, the most expensive phrase at the table is "I told you it was going to drop here." See, the price doesn't care at all about what you said before. $BTC squeezed shorts overnight, over 90% of short positions got liquidated, and the comment section immediately split into two camps: one stubbornly saying "It's topped, keep adding shorts," the other rushing in shouting "The bull is back, all in." Both groups actually have equally bad odds—they're both fighting the market with emotions they haven't fully understood yet. The professional approach is boring: if you don't understand it, don't bet; if you do, only place bets with stop-losses. Don't use "not willing to accept it" as a reason to enter. Tonight, are you trading, or just sulking against the market?US Treasury Secretary Yellen suddenly "rescues the market"—what signal does this send to the market? In this macro-sensitive phase, Yellen's market rescue seems so "coincidental"
Just now, the US Treasury Department officially announced that starting September 9, 2026, it will expand the size of single bond purchases from the original $2 billion per transaction to even $4 billion per transaction. This policy covers 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds.
Simply put, the Treasury is adjusting the market supply of medium- to long-term bonds by increasing the size of single bond purchases to suppress yields. After the announcement, the US dollar weakened, long-term bond yields declined, gold strengthened, and risk markets—especially high Beta assets—saw gains.
This event is a "positive catalyst," but whether it becomes a policy benefit remains to be observed.
1. The short-term increase in purchase size releases marginal liquidity to risk markets, such as Bitcoin starting to rise. Although different from conventional QE, it is beneficial to risk sub-assets. However, this is only a one-time event benefit; given the massive scale of US Treasuries, increasing single repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion is still a drop in the bucket.
2. The key point is whether the Treasury considers the 5.3% yield on 30-year Treasuries a sensitive red line. This is the greatest significance of this move. If the 30-year long bond yield hits 5.3% and continues to trigger this rule, the event benefit could turn into a policy benefit, which would be the most direct positive for financial markets.
3. If in the future the government expands long bond repurchases, reduces long bond issuance, and increases Bills financing, it could form a medium- to long-term liquidity benefit. Therefore, monitoring the 30-year long bond yield is crucial.
Behind this Treasury move, does it mean Yellen has very low tolerance for the 5.3% yield on 30-year long bonds?
Tonight is actually a hidden dangerous node:
1. Last week's retail data clearly weakened, raising concerns about a US economic slowdown. This week’s important retail earnings reports: yesterday Home Depot showed weakness, today Lowe’s as a major home retailer also showed consumption fatigue. Target’s earnings remained stable, but tomorrow’s Walmart earnings are key. If major retail earnings weaken, economic slowdown and consumption downturn expectations will rise, which, combined with current high oil prices and inflation expectations, will threaten US economic stability and the stock market.
2. The July central bank meeting minutes are about to be released. Because Wash advocated reducing forward guidance, the market did not get sufficient information during the July rate meeting, so these minutes will be a market focus.
So far, the Fed has held rates steady for five consecutive times. In the July minutes, three governors proposed rate hikes, indicating increasing internal division within the Fed. The market is more interested in the attitudes of the majority of officials aside from the hawkish governors, especially regarding inflation, economic growth, and employment.
Most analysts believe the July minutes may be more hawkish than expected, with many officials possibly ready to support rate hikes, especially due to deepening inflation concerns.
These two key nodes will show whether the US economy slows down or loses risk and inflation expectations, or faces the dual risk of rate hikes triggered by high oil prices. The overlap of these risks is crucial for US economic confidence and the stock market. Therefore, I think the Treasury’s choice to increase repurchase limits now is a somewhat excessive "coincidence" to boost the market.
It must be said that macro factors have entered a complex phase. Yellen’s unexpected market rescue and the macro-sensitive factors yet to be verified make tonight’s game unpredictable.
Yellen’s rescue is an event benefit; it cannot yet be proven to be policy-driven or sustainable. If tonight’s minutes are more hawkish and tomorrow’s Walmart earnings show consumption downgrade, the positive and negative factors may offset each other, making the financial market’s long-short game even more complex!$ETH is even stronger than $BTC in this wave. A few days ago, it was still stuck between 1870-1920 pretending to be dead, but yesterday at 8 PM, the 4-hour candle suddenly surged with 30.04 million contracts traded, pushing the price from 1922 all the way up to 2085. Today it surged further to 2342, with volume several times the usual.
The catch-up logic is actually quite clear: BTC first broke through 70,000 to lift the overall market sentiment, and ETH, as the second largest, lagged behind a bit. When funds rotated over, it caused a violent catch-up rally. But the problem lies here — the daily RSI is already at 82.29, which is an extremely overbought zone. Historically, it’s rare for the price to continue rising without a pullback from this level.
Looking at derivatives, the long-short ratio is 0.96, and the funding rate is 0.01%, indicating no crowded rush of longs buying up positions. This suggests that this wave is driven more by spot and FOMO funds chasing, with leverage positions not yet overheated.
My judgment: switching to a bullish direction is fine, but the intraday high of 2342 was just rejected, and the short-term is overbought. Don’t rush in when sentiment is at its hottest.
Key levels: support for pullback is at 2220 and 2100; breaking below 2100 means this catch-up rally needs to rest. Resistance is at 2342; only holding above this can open up more space, otherwise, a high-level consolidation to digest profits is likely. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #The market is currently betting on a "soft landing," but the real risk is the triple overlay of AI valuation bubbles + long-term interest rate volatility + inflation stickiness.
If overheating in AI infrastructure financing triggers financial stability concerns, the Federal Reserve may be forced to walk a tightrope between "controlling inflation" and "risk prevention."
For risk assets, short-term liquidity easing is positive, but the medium term depends on whether the AI narrative can continue to attract capital. Once AI stocks pull back, the crypto market will find it hard to remain unaffected.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Add an easily overlooked macro variable to this wave of broad risk asset rally: the yen. Japan's net government bond sales in July hit a new high since 2006, with foreign investors selling 1.28 trillion yen of short- and medium-term Japanese bonds in a single month. The market is betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. The tightness of carry trades has always been a hidden switch for global risk appetite—the chain deleveraging triggered by last year's sharp yen surge is still fresh in memory. Now, with $BTC and $ETH soaring overnight and the dollar weakening, it looks lively, but if the yen starts to tighten, the first liquidity to be pulled out is often the most crowded longs. Don't just focus on the coin price candlesticks; look up at the interest rate spreads. Have you put the yen exchange rate on your watchlist? Genius Trader - Little Soybean (Day6)
$BTC
Daily chart: Yesterday we were still discussing the battle around the 64000 EMA50 for Bitcoin, also warning everyone that a big volatility was coming soon (refer to my past analysis 🧐)
The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, injecting liquidity into the market. The dollar index plunged below 99, hitting a new low since mid-May, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.651% — once the liquidity floodgates opened, Bitcoin surged straight from the 64000 range to 69500, liquidating over $1 billion in shorts within an hour, marking the largest single-hour short liquidation on record since 2021.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin broke through the 100-day moving average at 66288 and the 200-day moving average at 69047 in one go. The 4-hour RSI shot up to 83.49, indicating severe overbought conditions. The long upper shadow near 69500 suggests strong selling pressure between 69000-70000. The options market had previously accumulated a large amount of downside protection at 60000 and bullish positions at 70000, and now it is realizing the latter.
Whales have increased their BTC holdings by $2.9 billion over 60 days, and ETFs have seen a net inflow of $486 million in two days. These are substantial buy orders, not just pure liquidations. In the short term, the 69000-70000 round number resistance is unlikely to be broken in one go; it will most likely pull back to 66600-67000 to digest the overbought condition before gathering strength. Intraday movement range: 66600-70000. If it stabilizes above 69000 this week, the target will be 74000 directly. Today's crypto ETF trends show a bit of consistency, let's talk about it: 1) BTC's ETF funds have shown net inflows for two consecutive days, but yesterday's net inflow was significantly less than the day before. This indicates that large institutions' buying intentions at this level are still not unified, and BTC is hesitating below the early 1-hour downtrend line. Although it keeps hitting my stops, I still placed a short position with a small stop loss to gamble on a big opportunity. My trading logic is: BTC's momentum here is still insufficient. Overall, it's still slightly bearish. 2) ETH's ETF funds have had net inflows on four of the last five days. From price action, it is relatively strong, having broken out of the 1-hour triangle consolidation pattern, but no effective large bullish candle has formed yet. The main reason might be waiting for BTC's effective breakout and stabilization signal. Another driver for ETH's strength is the Ethereum Foundation launching the glamsterdam testnet and subsequent upgrade phases. If going long, prioritize ETH; if shorting, choose BTC. 3) After five consecutive days of zero net inflow, SOL's ETF funds finally saw a small rebound, with a net inflow of 1.6M yesterday. This is also the first time in the past month (not tracing further back) that BTC, ETH, and SOL simultaneously had positive net inflows. This could become a catalyst or a key node for BTC to break through a critical level. However, without BTC's confirmation, these$CORE Regarding whether CORE coin (Core) can rise back to $1 (1U) in the future, there is currently significant market divergence and it faces very severe challenges.
According to the latest market data from August 2026, the price of CORE coin hovers around 0.02, which is a huge gap from $1. Based on the current market information, the difficulty and possibility of its return to 1U can be analyzed from the following dimensions:
1. Optimistic forecast: theoretically possible but requires a huge price increase
Some long-term price prediction models hold an optimistic view of CORE coin's future. Some analyses point out that if the crypto market enters a new bull run and CORE maintains a bullish momentum, its price could reach as high as 4.20 in 2026 and possibly 15.00 in 2029. If these predictions come true, CORE coin could not only return to 1U but even significantly surpass it.
2. Realistic difficulties: fundamentals and capital face multiple suppressions
Despite long-term optimistic forecasts, CORE coin currently faces insurmountable resistance in the real market, which is the core reason for its prolonged low price:
* Liquidity exhaustion and whale sell pressure: CORE coin's current daily trading volume is extremely low (less than $4 million), with severely insufficient market depth. A few large sell orders can easily push the price down. Meanwhile, whale holdings are concentrated, and tokens from early mining and airdrops tend to be sold off in concentrated bursts during rebounds, leading to weak upward momentum.
* Continuous token release: CORE's total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with more than half already in circulation. Mining rewards and tokens for early contributors are still being unlocked periodically into the market, lacking strong deflationary or buyback mechanisms to offset this selling pressure, resulting in a long-term supply-demand imbalance.
* Ecosystem implementation below expectations: Although Core promotes the "BTCFi (Bitcoin Decentralized Finance)" narrative, on-chain real activity and locked capital scale are low, lacking hit applications with strong user retention. The token's actual use cases are limited, making it difficult to generate stable cash flow to support the price.
* Intensified competition in the sector: The Bitcoin layer-2 scaling sector is becoming saturated, with similar projects like Stacks (STX) capturing a large share of developers and institutional funds, continuously squeezing CORE's market space.
3. Technical status: long-term weakness
From a technical analysis perspective, although CORE coin has occasionally rebounded recently (e.g., single-day gains over 10%), it still trades below long-term moving averages like the 200-day MA, with the long-term trend remaining bearish. The current price has dropped over 99% from its historical high (around 6.47), with extremely heavy historical sell positions above.
Summary
Theoretically, CORE coin's return to 1U is possible according to predictions, but this requires extremely stringent conditions: not only must the entire crypto market (especially Bitcoin) enter a super bull market, but the Core ecosystem must achieve substantial breakthroughs in the BTCFi sector, resolve token sell pressure issues, and attract significant incremental capital inflows.
Given the current liquidity shortage, lack of fundamental support, and prolonged weak consolidation, the difficulty of CORE coin returning to 1U in the short term is very high, with a low probability.
Disclaimer: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and risky. The above analysis is based solely on publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Please invest cautiously.
Would you like me to help you review the performance and valuation comparisons of other mainstream projects in the BTCFi sector? I can provide a horizontal reference.$500 billion Wall Street capital is pouring into AI — and can Bitcoin benefit or face risks? 08/20/2026 — The most notable topic There is a major shift happening behind the AI frenzy that the crypto market needs to pay attention to: AI is moving from a “technology spending” story to an “asset financialization” story. NVIDIA has partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to build financial platforms capable of raising over $500 billion in external capital for AI infrastructure over time. NVIDBTC’s brief move above $69,000, followed by an easing toward $68,000, matters less as a breakout headline than as a test of demand quality. OKX spot BTC/USDT reached nearly $69,888 and gained over 5% in 24 hours, while ETH/USDT touched about $2,119 with gains above 8%.
The stronger ETH response and VanEck’s view that several BTC capitulation signals have triggered support a measured recovery case. Still, durability depends on whether spot demand persists after short covering and leverage lose momentum. Holding gains as volume and inflows normalize would be the more convincing signal. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTCBreaks69000after Trump raised the odds of compliant US access to Hyperliquid, buyers pushed $HYPE 11% higher. when a regulated venue sends fees from US trading to the Assistance Fund, the fund uses them for automatic $HYPE buys and burns. no disclosed structure does that yet. if regulated intermediaries keep the fees, added US volume leaves the fund's $HYPE purchases unchanged.Overnight, this wave of $BTC short squeeze, those who understand know: it surged from 64K to nearly 69K in one night, $ETH even stronger with +17%, over 90% of the 24h volume was short positions getting liquidated. From a narrative perspective, this isn’t a "bull comeback" sparked by some positive news, but a "devaluation trade" driven by a weaker dollar + Treasury expanding bond buybacks + US debt surpassing 40 trillion, with $BTC just being revalued alongside gold and silver. This macro liquidity-driven rally has the advantage of broad gains but the downside of not following a single narrative—if the dollar or interest rates reverse, the most crowded longs will get hit first. At this point, preserving ammo is more important than chasing highs. Let’s watch and see.The Treasury Department got anxious last night
The 30-year US Treasury yield just touched 5.33% on Tuesday, a 19-year high, and on Wednesday night they announced: the repurchase limit for long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years doubled from 2 billion to 4 billion, starting September 9. The 30-year yield instantly jumped nearly 10 basis points to 5.20%, the 10-year at 4.65%
This is not QE. The Fed's QE is printing money to buy bonds, that's true easing; the Treasury is using the left hand to buy unpopular old bonds with cash, and the right hand to issue new bonds to borrow back, so the total bonds in the market remain unchanged.
Traders see it as "Fed not easing, Treasury secretly easing." BTC and ETH in this wave are less about a fundamental reversal and more a conditioned reflex to implicit easing—gold, US stock futures, and crypto all rallying together, a classic easing package.
BTC surged from 64,100 to nearly 70,000, up about 6%, a new high since June 2; ETH was even stronger, surging over 20% intraday to 2,330, above 2,000 for the first time since May. Nearly $2.5 billion in short positions across the network were liquidated, the largest single-day short squeeze in history, with ETH accounting for over $1 billion.
A 4 billion order is a drop in the bucket compared to the 32 trillion in national debt; deficits, oil prices above 90, and inflation stuck above 2% remain unresolved. Warsh's July minutes were still hawkish, with a 9:3 vote to hold steady and three voters calling for a rate hike, while the Treasury turns around to inject buying power into the long end, a completely opposite direction.
Can this continue? Before November 4, repurchases can only save liquidity, they can't suppress long-term rates. Shorts are hurting, but don't mistake the rebound for a reversal; whether 70,000 can hold depends on whether inflation cooperates The market is extremely fierce; this rally has liquidated large-scale Short positions up to about 1.9 billion USD. However, the amount of stablecoin reserves on exchanges has dropped to around 64 billion USD, thinning market liquidity. Additionally, on 8/19, President Trump called on Congress to pass a version of the CLARITY Act to create a clearer legal framework for crypto.
In summary, I see signs of a strong recovery, but I do not yet consider this a confirmed signal of a new upcycle.
Please pay close attention and make your own decisions.Today, the cryptocurrency market rose, mainly driven by the following three factors:
1. The U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term Treasury repurchases. Long-term Treasury yields have sharply dropped, lowering funding costs, making investors more willing to buy high-risk assets like Bitcoin/Ethereum. This is the most direct reason for the price increase.
2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed new cryptocurrency issuance rules. This provides project teams with two clearer financing channels, making regulation appear more relaxed, thereby boosting market sentiment.
3. The White House met with leading figures in the cryptocurrency sector today. Both sides discussed tokenization and clear legislation, which made the market feel that policies will support cryptocurrencies, further strengthening market confidence. Additionally, ETF funds have started to flow back, shorts are being squeezed, and prices have surged
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $ETH $BTC The Ultimate Truth Behind CORE's Reconciliation: No Surrender, No Loss! $150 Million BTC Assets Secured, Ending Internal Conflict Completely
The market has misunderstood the reconciliation between Core and Maple: it’s not about conceding defeat, losing a lawsuit, or having the track stolen. Instead, it’s the highest-level business stop-loss game in crypto — neither side admits fault, but neither can afford to drag it out!
1. Full Event Recap: A Top-Tier Cooperation That Fattened the Opponent
In early 2025, Core Foundation and Maple Finance joined forces to launch the heavyweight product lstBTC, opening the Bitcoin staking yield track.
Core fully provided core technology, massive market subsidies, and comprehensive traffic marketing;
Maple was only responsible for asset management.
This cooperation directly ignited the track: Maple’s asset management scale surged from under $500 million to $2.8 billion, and the lstBTC pilot absorbed $150 million in Bitcoin stock assets unilaterally, instantly becoming the hottest benchmark project in BTCFi at the time.
However, after the track was proven and the model validated, Maple directly betrayed and breached the agreement:
They used confidential cooperation data to secretly develop a competing product syrupBTC, openly violating the exclusive 24-month cooperation agreement.
Core, unable to tolerate this, fought back hard by applying for an injunction at the Cayman Islands Grand Court:
1. Forcibly stopping Maple from launching the competing syrupBTC;
2. Completely banning Maple from trading CORE tokens, fully locking down their ecosystem permissions.
After the situation escalated, Maple issued a deadly threat:
They threatened to impair $150 million of user Bitcoin deposits, indirectly implying inability to repay principal and shifting risk.
2. The Deep Truth of the Reconciliation Agreement: No Losers, Only Precise Game Theory
The official narrative is polite throughout: neither side admits fault or breach.
It seems like a draw, but in fact, it’s a carefully calculated exchange of interests, each taking what they need and precisely stopping losses.
Core Rights Maple Obtained
The court injunction was lifted, officially granting syrupBTC compliance launch qualification, preserving their track layout and $3 billion asset management reputation, avoiding financing collapse and institutional decoupling risks caused by ongoing litigation.
Core’s Absolute Core Gains (The Most Critical Takeaway)
1. Preservation of $150 million user BTC assets
This is the first bottom line of the reconciliation! Maple promised full repayment of user principal, completely preventing large-scale asset crashes, user stampedes for compensation, and total brand collapse.
2. Ending sky-high cross-border litigation internal conflict
Cayman court cross-border arbitration and overseas compliance lawsuits incur sky-high lawyer fees and time costs; continuous dragging only exhausts ecosystem energy and keeps pressuring prices negatively.
3. Implicit reconciliation compensation received
The agreement clearly keeps financial terms confidential; the industry assumes Maple paid a large confidential settlement to get Core to withdraw the lawsuit and give up exclusive rights.
4. Completely clearing negative sentiment and stopping market bleeding
Previously, CORE dropped over 90%; ongoing litigation disputes were the biggest emotional suppression. The reconciliation settles all negative dust, fully shedding old burdens.
3. Why This Is Absolutely Not “Working for the Opponent for Free”
Many don’t understand and think Core was stabbed in the back after validating the track, losing more than gaining. Actually, it’s the opposite:
1. The old lstBTC model was already invalid
Early yields fully depended on CORE inflation subsidies, not real ecosystem revenue. After the token’s deep drop, the original model collapsed completely. Even without Maple’s betrayal, the old model would have naturally phased out, so there’s no loss here.
2. Open-source tracks cannot be monopolized forever
The 24-month exclusive agreement only restricts commercial cooperation, not the open-source technology track. Rather than a long-term tug-of-war, it’s better to stop losses gracefully and secure gains.
3. Core’s strategy is fully upgraded
After reconciliation, Core completely sheds inefficient cooperation, no longer relying on third-party asset management, fully building BTCFi infrastructure, advancing SatPay implementation, expanding compliant financial ecosystems, abandoning the old path, and moving toward a higher-dimensional new narrative.
4. Final Summary
The essence of this reconciliation:
Maple paid for track freedom; Core stopped losses, preserved assets, received compensation, cleared negative sentiment, and gained rebirth.
No surrender, no loss, and definitely no defeat!
The so-called opponent betrayal and track theft are just surface illusions.
Core truly won the most critical outcome: user asset security, ecosystem negative clearing, complete end to internal conflict, and a fresh start to welcome the 2026 revenue era.
Having endured the darkest struggles and washed away speculative noise, the true BTCFi leader has already completed its phoenix rebirth.
$CORE #CoreDAO #BTCFiTrack