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The White House meeting with the crypto industry, the market is most easily excited by the group photo
But what the industry really needs is a construction progress schedule
Policy-level support for crypto is of course important, especially with players like SEC, CFTC, exchanges, Ripple, Coinbase all sitting at the table together. But what I care more about is what can be implemented after the meeting: whether CLARITY can pass, how stablecoin regulations will be enforced, whether banks can serve crypto companies, how tokenized securities will be custodied, and whether DeFi has a legal path in the US
The crypto industry has suffered too many losses from "positive attitude" alone
Attitude can pull up a bullish candle, but systems can change capital costs. Institutions are not unwilling to enter, they are afraid that after entering the rules will change again, accounts will be frozen, and compliance boundaries will be unclear
Policy results are not just about supporting innovation
It means allowing legitimate money not to take detours, allowing compliant projects not to play dead, and enabling trading, custody, payment, and financing to operate transparently
#白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 In a mid-19th-century European town, there was a doctor named Gray, who had practiced medicine for thirty years. He possessed an almost miraculous ability: just by touching a patient's tongue, he could tell who would contract typhoid within days. For 30 years, he was almost never wrong, and he firmly believed in this "tongue diagnosis method." Years later, people realized that because he didn't wash his hands, the typhoid bacteria on his hands were transmitted to patients through the tongue. This is the classic tongue-touching doctor. Touching the tongue, the patient contracts typhoid fever and concludes: touching the tongue can diagnose typhoid fever. The real environment always gives us incorrect feedback, leading to incorrect attribution, and using this mistaken experience to guide the next action. This is the characteristic of a harsh learning environment. In the investment world, there are doctors who are constantly searching for their tongues. When Bitcoin broke through 70,000 in March 2024, everyone imagined altcoins would take off early, but the price kept falling until August, because in previous rounds, Bitcoin hit new highs first, then the altcoins took off again. Then, everyone will repeat the altcoin boom at the end of 2024, which is similar to when DeFi started taking off in December 2020. Then, by the end of 2024, the price kept falling, and then the altcoin boom in the first half of 2025 was repeated, which was equivalent to the altcoin season in the first half of 2021. As a result, Ethereum plummeted to over 1300 in the first half of 2025; Everyone believes 2025 will be a major bull market, because 2021 and 2017 were both key bull market years,Today, both the US stock market and gold surged together, and the root cause lies in the US Treasury market.
Everyone should have noticed that recently the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a temporary high.
Simply put, global investors are selling off long-term US Treasuries because they don't have much confidence in the US's ability to repay long-term debt. When bonds are sold, bond prices fall and yields rise — this situation is very unfavorable for the US in the long run.
Seeing the long-term rates about to spiral out of control, the US Treasury stepped in.
The strategy is to issue short-term government bonds, use the raised funds to buy back long-term government bonds from the market, forcibly pushing down long-term bond yields.
Once the news broke, the market immediately rallied: US stocks rebounded, gold $XAU surged in sync, the crypto sector $BTC led the gains, and $ETH exploded upward.
But the gap goes beyond this.
Because the market clearly understands that the proper way to truly solve the debt problem is to cut government fiscal spending. But with the midterm elections looming and one debt crisis after another, large-scale spending cuts are politically unfeasible.
So the US cannot solve the root problem and can only juggle debt to delay the current crisis and shift the risk to the future.
Meanwhile, the Fed still talks about balance sheet reduction, seemingly tightening monetary policy.
However, the Treasury’s actions send a very clear signal to the market:
Whenever debt or the market faces problems, there will be an unhesitating bailout, rendering fiscal discipline basically meaningless.
This puts the Fed in a very awkward position.
On one hand, it needs to raise rates to fight inflation; on the other, fiscal pressure forces it to support the bond market, severely questioning the Fed’s policy independence.
Now the market has reached a consensus:
Whenever the market can’t hold, someone will step in to backstop it.
Behind this backstop is essentially disguised money printing, making it very difficult to completely extinguish inflationary flames.
This explains why US stocks and gold are strengthening simultaneously.
But a reminder here:
International gold has now touched $4500, looking like it’s soaring.
However, when priced in RMB, domestic gold prices have not simultaneously hit new highs.
A large part of the gains has been eaten up by RMB appreciation. The same gold surged in USD terms, but the actual returns we get are discounted — this is something to be aware of.
So what’s the situation now?
No matter how much the Fed talks tough, as long as it doesn’t really raise rates, the market has lost trust in it.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Is this $BTC rally fueled by the bears?
24-hour liquidation amount is 2.56 billion!#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
At first glance, Pop Mart's financial report shows a profit of 5 billion, but a closer look reveals many issues.
In the first half of the year, revenue was 17.17 billion, up 23.8%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.04 billion, only up 10.1%. Profit growth is less than half of revenue growth, gross margin is declining, and the cost of expansion is beginning to show.
The structure is even more striking. The Chinese market grew 47.3%, while Asia-Pacific and the Americas dropped 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, indicating a slowdown in overseas expansion. LABUBU declined 7.5%, while Star People grew nearly sixfold to become the second largest IP, but whether one IP can fill the gap left by LABUBU remains to be seen.
IPs have life cycles; one hit product cannot support a listed company. Pop Mart's problems are not just about overseas sales slowing down, but also IP aging, new products failing to catch on, and slower inventory turnover. These three issues appearing simultaneously are more concerning for a company reliant on IP than just a slowdown in revenue growth.
For crypto traders, the takeaway is—don't treat a single narrative as a long-term belief. When growth shifts gears, the market won't give you much time to prove you can tell a new story.
Here’s my view. Pop Mart's financials themselves are not bad—17.1 billion in revenue and 5 billion in profit are strong in any industry. But what the market is really scrutinizing is another issue—slowing overseas expansion and IP structural shifts. These signals combined point to a growth ceiling that may arrive earlier than expected. $BTC and $ETH shorts have been sideways for a while now, probably about the same. After breaking the resistance level, all lines surged. Plus, with Trump speaking out, the SEC signaling loosening, and the Treasury increasing buybacks, positive news keeps coming one after another. In this situation, who still wants to stubbornly hold? What can they hold on to?
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
According to liquidation data, the dog whales executed a textbook-level one-sided long squeeze on LAB — longs controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, with a concentrated 24-hour burst, accumulating liquidations exceeding $260,000.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $10,200 $5,896.76 $4,306.11
4 hours $31,800 $26,200 $5,521.28
12 hours $42,200 $36,700 $5,570.46
24 hours $261,000 $215,600 $45,500
From the $LAB liquidation data: at 1 hour, long liquidations crushed shorts (1.37x), volume at $10,200, with longs probing control but with mild intensity; at 4 hours, longs confirmed direction (4.75x), liquidation volume surged to $31,800, longs started to exert force; at 12 hours, longs continued to dominate (6.6x), liquidation volume rose to $42,200, longs sustained control with increasing momentum; at 24 hours, longs fully exploded, long liquidations at $215,600 versus shorts at $45,500, longs 4.74 times shorts, cumulative liquidations surpassed $261,000. The 24-hour liquidation volume accounted for 82% of the daily total, showing high concentration. The long-to-short liquidation ratio dropped from 6.6x at 12 hours to 4.74x at 24 hours, indicating the long squeeze momentum weakened somewhat but remained high overall, with a clear direction. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the Fed's "hawks" and the market's "doves" are in direct confrontation — the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises; the divergence itself signals direction.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, but hawks far outnumber votes
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the forces supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three formal dissenters; many participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike but ultimately agreed to hold steady. The minutes clearly state that further tightening would be necessary if inflation does not improve. This was the Fed's most divided meeting in a decade.
₿ BTC Breaks $69,000: The hawkier the minutes, the higher the market
On the same day the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin surged past $69,000, reaching as high as $70,059, the highest level since June.
The direct trigger came from traditional financial markets — on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single repo limit for long-term Treasury securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This macro liquidity injection ignited bullish sentiment in crypto. Coinglass data shows total crypto liquidations reached $1.61 billion in 24 hours, with shorts dominating. This was a classic "short squeeze" — shorts forced to cover, pushing prices up.
The hawkish signals in the Fed minutes did not suppress the market — because the market prices not "what the minutes said," but "what is happening with liquidity."
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phone pressure, car support
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, surpassing the 100 billion mark again; adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, but the automotive business is the biggest highlight — the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment generated ¥24.9 billion in revenue, up 17.1% year-over-year, accounting for 22.9% of total revenue. Among this, smart electric vehicle revenue was ¥23.9 billion, delivering 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2% year-over-year. The SU7 series cumulative deliveries have exceeded 500,000 units.
However, concerns remain real — the automotive business posted an operating loss of ¥2.6 billion, with gross margin falling from 26.4% last year to 19.2%. The Pengcheng series SUV orders exceeded expectations; whether it can become a turning point in the second half remains the biggest variable.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the hawkier the Fed minutes, the stronger Bitcoin rises — because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "liquidity is easing"; Xiaomi supports growth with cars but losses persist, the transition between old and new engines is still painful. When hawkish minutes meet liquidity easing, when phone pressure meets automotive breakthrough — the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing in the most divided way. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Marvell’s Google agreement matters less as a one-day share-price catalyst than as evidence that custom AI infrastructure is broadening beyond compute alone. The scope spans TPUs and related accelerators, storage controllers, networking and memory interfaces, giving Marvell several potential routes into Google’s buildout.
The warrants, covering up to 58.97M shares at $206.58, are not a completed equity purchase. Their real analytical value is alignment: if execution scales, expectations for custom-chip revenue may rise. The Aug 27 FY2027 Q2 report should show whether management is ready to translate that potential into guidance. Not advice, just analysis.
#MarvellGoogleChipDeal#Brothers, we expected a rise, but not this fierce!!! Let's calm down and talk about the real drivers behind this wave of BTC breaking 70,000 and ETH surging to 2300:
1. The root cause is the weakening dollar: The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged sharply from a high of 5.33%, and the dollar index simultaneously plummeted. The liquidity valve loosened, and institutional funds were the first to catch the scent.
2. ETFs continue accumulating: Spot ETFs have seen large net inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing nearly 500 million in two days. Smart money is still buying above 68,000, which is not a volume retail investors can support.
3. News sentiment explosion: The White House crypto summit, new SEC regulations, and expectations for the CLARITY Act review—all three combined have led the market to trade on the narrative of a "U.S. crypto strategic reserve," knocking out the shorts directly.
4. Short squeeze spiral to the sky: 1.6 billion liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 1.4 billion. After the price broke key levels, a chain of forced liquidations formed a typical short squeeze structure, pushing the price so high it makes you question reality.
Friendly reminder: Such a rapid surge like pulling scallions from dry land is questionable in sustainability. Don't chase the rise or sell off in the short term; watch the key levels closely—BTC holding above 68,000 means the trend may continue toward 75,000; if it can't hold, expect a pullback to 65,000. ETH's 2000-2080 range is the watershed; this is the launch platform for this breakout, so be cautious if it breaks down.
The above represents personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice; please exercise caution.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge? $BTC
Many people think it's because the crypto market is heating up again.
But this time, the real driver behind the market may not be just internal factors within the crypto space.
Let's look at it step by step:
1. The U.S. Treasury has started increasing bond repurchases.
The repurchase scale is rising, focusing on long-term government bonds with maturities of 10-30 years.
Simply put:
the government is actively managing its long-term debt.
⸻
2. Why now?
Because long-term government bond yields are at multi-year highs.
As government financing costs continue to rise, market capital becomes more cautious.
Bond repurchases release liquidity expectations, pushing interest rates down.
Once capital starts seeking returns again, it flows into risk assets.
Bitcoin is one of them.
⸻
3. The market was previously overcrowded with shorts.
Another key factor in this rally:
Too many people bet on a decline in advance.
In a short time, a large number of shorts were forced to cut losses.
The $1.4 billion short squeeze essentially means:
they weren’t bullish on BTC; they had to buy back to close positions.
⸻
4. Technicals formed resonance.
BTC broke through the key area near the 200-day moving average.
After breaking the long-term resistance line, algorithmic trading and trend-following funds started entering.
⸻
5. Regulatory expectations are improving.
The SEC has signaled a new regulatory framework,
leading the market to reassess the future growth potential of crypto assets.
At the same time, institutional funds are flowing back into ETFs.
Capital is refocusing on this market.
⸻
But here’s the key point:
Don’t simply interpret this surge as a full-scale bull market kickoff.
A large part of this rise comes from short squeeze.
The buying pressure from short liquidations happens only once.
A true trend reversal requires seeing:
continuous capital inflows;
ETF accumulation;
improved macro liquidity;
BTC holding key levels steadily.
Remember:
Bitcoin is no longer an isolated market.
When liquidity is loose, it rises;
when capital tightens, it falls.
If you only look at the candlesticks, you see the result;
understanding capital flows and macro factors lets you grasp the reasons.
Next, focus on:
whether BTC can effectively hold around 69000.
If it breaks through and closes above this level consistently, the market narrative will change.
If it falls back, today’s move might just be a liquidity-driven rebound.
Real trading opportunities never come from chasing after a rise.
They come from understanding the reasons when others panic,
and staying calm when others go crazy.
$BTC BTC surges to 72,000, ETH rises 20%, HYPE becomes a legend overnight
BTC was still at 62,800 three days ago, today it briefly touched 72,059; ETH pulled above 2,300, up over 20%; HYPE peaked at 74.5. A full-scale surge, with about $2.977 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours.
$BTC: Triple positive factors push it hard past 72,000
The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-term Treasury repurchase scale; Trump met with crypto executives to promote regulatory clarity; SEC advances token issuance exemption proposal. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $487 million for two consecutive days. But the 1-hour RSI has surged above 85 into the overbought zone, and Coinbase premium index remains negative — U.S. spot demand has not truly returned yet.
$ETH: More of a catch-up rally
ETH rose to 2,300, Ethereum spot ETFs net inflows reached $189 million, a nearly 9-month high. But BTC market dominance rose to 59%, ETH looks more like it’s following the rally. The 2,300-2,350 range above is strong resistance.
$HYPE: Trump’s words make it legendary
Trump stated that the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S., HYPE rose about 20% in 24 hours, market cap surpassed DOGE to rank ninth. But RSI reached 82.74, severely overbought.
All three assets are extremely overbought, leverage-driven rallies come fast and go fast. The 72,000 level is not a smooth path. When the Middle East conflict began in late February, the general expectation was that crypto, as a “risk asset,” would take the biggest hit. The actual outcome tells a different story that not many are talking about: BTC is down -4.4% since then, ETH -5.7%, while gold futures have dropped -14.7%.The situation where a position with an average cost of ETH 1880 dollars is exposed to market volatility ultimately stems from the discrepancy between leverage and spot supply and demand. The core issue addressed in this article is not a simple complaint about losses, but why this position is trapped at a specific price range and what kind of price structure can free it. First, let's look at the part already reflected in the price. The time when ETH hovered around 1880 dollars was a period when expectations for spot ETF demand and rising network fees coincided. Afterward, ETH broke away from this level, and the current price is fluctuating at a level lower than the previous high. In other words, 1880 dollars was a past supply-demand equilibrium point, not the current one. There are still two variables not yet reflected. The first is whether the accumulation movement of the OKB community is of a scale that can be confirmed in actual exchange liquidity pools. The second is whether the small altcoin rally represented by SNDK is a temporary refuge for funds that have exited ETH or the beginning of a new risk appetite axis. From the perspective of price structure and supply-demand, ETH's📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
According to liquidation data, the dog whales executed a textbook one-sided long squeeze on KAITO — longs controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, momentum gradually amplified, then concentratedly exploded within 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $660,000.
From $KAITO liquidation data: at 1 hour, long liquidations crushed shorts (3.8x), volume $1,724, longs tentatively controlled the market; at 4 hours, longs confirmed direction (3.1x), liquidation volume surged to $25,400, longs started to exert force but with moderate multiples; at 12 hours, longs continued to dominate (2.33x), liquidation volume rose to $113,800, longs maintained control but momentum began to wane; at 24 hours, longs fully exploded, longs were 5.65 times the shorts, liquidation volume soared to $664,500, shorts were completely crushed. The 24-hour liquidation volume accounted for 86% of the total daily volume, showing extremely high concentration. The long-to-short liquidation ratio jumped from 2.33x at 12 hours to 5.65x at 24 hours, long squeeze momentum sharply intensified, and the gap between longs and shorts suddenly widened. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the Fed's "hawks" and the market's "doves" are in direct confrontation — the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises; the divergence itself is the direction.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, but hawks far outnumber votes
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the forces supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three formal dissenters; many participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike but ultimately agreed to hold steady. The minutes clearly state that further tightening would be necessary if inflation does not improve. This was the Fed's most divided meeting in a decade.
₿ BTC breaks $69,000: the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises
On the same day the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin surged past $69,000, reaching as high as $70,059, the highest level since June.
The direct trigger came from traditional financial markets — on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single long-term Treasury repo cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This macro liquidity injection ignited bullish sentiment in crypto markets. Coinglass data shows total crypto liquidations reached $1.61 billion within 24 hours, with shorts making up the vast majority. This was a classic "short squeeze" — shorts forced to liquidate, which in turn pushed prices higher.
The hawkish signals in the Fed minutes did not suppress the market — because the market prices not "what the minutes said," but "what is happening with liquidity."
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phone pressure, car support
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, surpassing the trillion-yuan scale again; adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, but the automotive business became the biggest highlight — the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business segment revenue reached ¥24.9 billion, up 17.1% year-over-year, accounting for 22.9% of total revenue. Among them, smart electric vehicle revenue was ¥23.9 billion, delivering 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2% year-over-year. The SU7 series cumulative deliveries have exceeded 500,000 units.
But concerns remain real — the automotive business operated at a loss of ¥2.6 billion, and gross margin fell from 26.4% last year to 19.2%. The Pengcheng series SUV orders exceeded expectations; whether it can become a turning point in the second half remains the biggest variable.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the hawkier the Fed minutes, the stronger Bitcoin rises — because the market prices not "who voted against," but the fact that "liquidity is easing"; Xiaomi supports growth with cars, but losses persist, and the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful transition. When hawkish minutes meet liquidity easing, and phone pressure meets automotive breakthrough — the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing in the most divided way. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 BTC 冲破 69,000 的那一刻，合约区像被谁按下了静音键，然后又突然炸开。 你有没有发现，这波上涨，现货在慢慢走，合约却在疯狂补刀？ 先还原一下盘面。BTC 最高摸到 69,888，离 70,000 就差一口气。ETH 也不甘示弱，冲到 2,119，单日涨超 8%。山寨那边，跟风的不少，但真正领涨的，还是那几个有故事可讲的。 导火索很直接：美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购规模，30 年期美债收益率从 19 年高位 5.33% 迅速回落到 5.19%。这根长期利率的绳子一松，BTC 就像被放开了脖子的风筝，噌噌往上蹿。 但真正让这波涨得这么急的，不是现货买盘，而是衍生品市场的空头踩踏。 63,000 上方堆了大量高倍杠杆的空单，价格一突破关键位，连环爆仓就像多米诺骨牌，一层层把价格往上推。ETF 那边也不甘寂寞，BlackRock 的 IBIT 单日净流入超过 2 亿美元，给这团火又浇了一勺油。 现在的问题是：这个位置，还能追吗？ 我的看法是，短线追高风险不小。69,000 附近有密集的获利盘，价格大概率需要震荡消化一下。第一支撑看 65,800 到 66,000，如果回踩能稳住，下Last night's White House meeting was no longer just Trump saying "good news for Crypto".
Trump gathered SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as traditional financial and crypto industry giants like Nasdaq, NYSE parent company ICE, and released several very clear signals:
The U.S. is discussing further increasing Bitcoin and other digital assets; Congress must push forward the CLARITY Act next; CFTC is studying allowing Hyperliquid to compliantly enter the U.S.; meanwhile, the U.S. must maintain global leadership in Bitcoin, Crypto, prediction markets, and AI.
More importantly, SEC, CFTC, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Crypto companies have started sitting at the same table to discuss how to truly integrate new financial products like stablecoins, on-chain financing, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets into the U.S. financial system.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong directly mentioned at the White House that the next big battle is the 60 votes for the CLARITY Act.
Why is this important?
Crypto is gradually evolving from "an asset class supported by Trump" into a set of financial infrastructure that the U.S. is preparing to operate long-term. Overnight Rally｜Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge Together, But It's Not About the Coins Themselves🔥
Who got confused by the market last night?
Bitcoin and Ethereum both surged late at night, and many thought it was the coins themselves entering a big bull market.
But understanding the logic reveals that the root cause of this rise is not within the crypto market itself.
✅ Complete logic behind this round of rally:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury made a big move, doubling the bond repurchase scale from 2 billion to 4 billion, focusing on 10-30 year long-term bonds.
2️⃣ Previously, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 2019 high, attracting funds to pile into government bonds with high yields, continuously draining risk assets.
3️⃣ The repurchase operation suppressed Treasury yields, causing a large outflow of funds from the bond market, which then started flowing into stocks and risk assets like crypto.
4️⃣ The market was heavily bearish beforehand, with many short positions set up, everyone waiting for further declines.
5️⃣ When the market started to rise slightly, it triggered a chain of short squeeze liquidations, forcing huge buy orders to enter, further pushing up coin prices.
👉 Key point: Short squeeze liquidations are passive buys and happen only once; they do not indicate long-term capital entering the market.
6️⃣ Prices broke through the critical 200-day moving average, triggering algorithmic trading strategies to place bulk buy orders.
7️⃣ The SEC regulatory draft was released, giving some crypto projects a chance to no longer be classified as securities, improving policy expectations.
8️⃣ The White House crypto industry summit is about to be held, with top institutions attending, and the market is preemptively pricing in the positive news.
9️⃣ Bitcoin ETF funds are flowing back, with major institutions resuming net inflows.
💡 A very realistic reminder:
This rally may not be a complete trend reversal.
The surge caused by short squeeze is powerful but questionable in sustainability.
Related crypto concept stocks also surged sharply, but a single-day spike cannot make up for months of prior losses.
⚠️ Ordinary players must remember:
What determines coin prices now is not just candlestick charts.
U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve news, and U.S. fiscal policy have much higher priority than technical chart patterns.
Key resistance level is 69,000; only if the price can close steadily above this level can the market narrative be truly rewritten.
If it spikes up and quickly falls back, this round is just a short-term rebound.
Having been in crypto for so long, I deeply feel:
If you don’t understand the underlying logic of the rise, you will be among the last to react when it falls.
During volatile market swings, don’t blindly chase highs; pay more attention to the macro news calendar.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cryptocurrency #CryptoReview #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $圈干货 #BTCETH行情$ETH $BTC
Note: Content is market opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency carries extremely high risk.CME Hedge Funds Shift BTC Futures to Net Long: Unusual Position Changes of Wall Street Capital
In the CME Bitcoin futures market, hedge fund positions have shifted to net long.
Short positions purely used for arbitrage are shrinking, and bullish active long bets are emerging.
CME Hedge Fund Net Position: An important indicator measuring whether institutions hold short positions for spot arbitrage (basis trading) in the futures market or are targeting directional upside longs.
From Arbitrage to Directional Bets: Transitioning from the risk-free "spread capture" strategy of buying ETFs + shorting futures to genuinely targeting upside with "directional buying," capturing potential capital flows.
Constraints and Illusion Possibilities: Due to data discrepancies caused by CFTC regulatory aggregation standards (standard futures vs. micro futures), caution is needed in confirming a full buy-in shift.
True Bull Market Conditions: The key "three horsemen" combining CME short position reduction, spot ETF inflows, and strong spot buying demand. This marks an important watershed where Wall Street institutions' Bitcoin buying purpose shifts from "risk hedging" to "directional investment." The trend of spot ETF inflows and changes in the derivatives market structure deserve attention.Bitcoin surged with a big bullish candle, and thousands of troops came to greet it!
After calling for a Bitcoin rebound for over a month, we've been grinding at the bottom for a super long time, and today finally gave a decent rebound.
This spot wave was fully exited around 68500; this is the tenth wave profit-taking in this year's bear market, and this time we waited especially long.
Moreover, this wave also included positioning in triple-leveraged tokens, so the profits are quite good.
Previously mentioned that on 8/27 there will be a Bitcoin Asia Summit, so there should be significant volatility in the coming days.
Just now, the U.S. Treasury announced a U.S. debt buyback, and Bitcoin finally reacted.
Recently, due to the high yields on long-term U.S. debt, the market has been very panicked about investments, still fearing the interest rate hike issue.
This round of U.S. debt buyback operations not only pulled up Bitcoin but also gold and silver.
What’s worth noting here is,
such big good news, yet the U.S. stock market didn’t react much.
As mentioned in the previous article, risks are gradually arriving, so we are gradually reducing U.S. stock holdings, and have completely exited the double-long positions on Micron and Hynix.
These days, we reduce holdings on rallies, slowly pocketing cash.
Bitcoin might also execute the last shorting wave of this bear market!
Patience is key Bitcoin rises to 70,000, why do I still not believe the bear market is over?
On August 16, when Bitcoin was still consolidating around 63,000, I indicated that the rebound rally was not over yet.
The next day, Bitcoin started to rise and yesterday it broke through the July 21 high with increased volume, reaching nearly 70,000 at its peak.
At the same time, there have been obvious recent regulatory positives:
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto industry leaders, as well as heads of the SEC and CFTC, pushing for the CLARITY Act to advance quickly again;
The SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing new registration exemption paths for some token issuances, further easing regulatory uncertainty.
Stimulated by these positives, voices in the market saying "the bull is back" have clearly increased.
Although this rebound slightly exceeded my previous expectation around 67,700, I still currently believe:
This rise is most likely still a rebound, not a reversal.
Why?
1. This round of rise has obvious short squeeze factors
Besides the positive news, the 65,500–67,500 range previously concentrated a large amount of short liquidation liquidity.
After the price broke through, chained liquidations further amplified the upward movement.
In other words:
The news ignited the spark, the liquidation mechanism amplified it.
But above 70,000, short liquidation liquidity clearly decreases, and without new funds continuously pushing, the short squeeze rally alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise.
2. Price structure and volume still do not look like a trend reversal
The rebound rally since July 1, 2026, like the previous two rebound rallies (Nov 21, 2025–Jan 13, 2026, and Feb 6, 2026–May 6, 2026), has been unfolding along a rebound channel, and yesterday’s surge belongs to the c wave of this rebound rally.
At the same time, compared to the previous two rebounds, the trading volume in this round of rise has not shown a particularly obvious increase.
A true trend reversal usually requires stronger sustainability and volume support.
Currently, these two signals are still not obvious enough.
3. On-chain indicators still lack typical bear market bottom confirmation
LTH-RP and CVDD are important long-term indicators for observing Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
Historically, several bear market bottoms have broken below LTH-RP and landed right on the CVDD line.
Currently, CVDD is about 48,900, LTH-RP about 49,600, and Bitcoin’s previous low was about 57,800, which is still noticeably above these two indicators.
This does not prove the bear market definitely won’t end, but at least indicates:
There is still a lack of typical cycle bottom confirmation signals.
4. There is still a large amount of liquidation liquidity below
The 47,000–57,000 range still contains a large amount of liquidation liquidity, especially concentrated around 50,000–52,000.
This means there is still a significant potential price magnet area below.
Therefore, before the price structure shows obvious changes, I still will not directly judge that a new bull market has started just because of a strong rebound.
Of course, I will not stubbornly stick to one view.
If Bitcoin can continue to rise with increasing volume and effectively break through rebound channel 3, then the current rebound structure may change, and I will re-evaluate the judgment of "whether the bear market is over."
The above analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BearMarket Samsung is throwing a staggering 100 trillion KRW into shareholder returns: How big of a storm will this heavy blow from the Asian semiconductor giant stir up?
South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung Electronics is about to announce a historic shareholder return plan worth up to 100 trillion KRW (approximately 75 billion USD). As soon as the news broke, the entire Asia-Pacific financial circle and the global semiconductor supply chain exploded with excitement.
After enduring the past two years of a downturn in memory and fierce competition in the HBM sector, Samsung suddenly pulls out this nuclear-level capital ace, and its impact is far more than just giving shareholders a bigger dividend.
If you see this 100 trillion KRW move merely as routine market value management, you are seriously underestimating its profound impact on the global tech supply chain and capital liquidity.
This heavy blow will trigger chain reactions in at least three dimensions:
The first dimension is the global memory chip industry declaring an end to vicious overcapacity expansion, ushering in historic self-discipline on the supply side.
Over the past two decades, the biggest fear for competitors in the global memory chip industry has been Samsung’s counter-cyclical, suicidal expansion fueled by its seemingly bottomless cash flow. Whenever prices slightly recover, Samsung would pour all its hard-earned cash into wafer fabs to wage price wars, pushing Taiwanese and American rivals into dire straits.
But this time, Samsung is locking up a massive 100 trillion KRW in cash for stock buybacks, cancellations, and cash dividends, sending a very clear strategic signal to the entire market: Samsung will no longer blindly pursue absolute scale monopoly of mature capacity but will shift to pursuing high-quality growth in return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS).
When the memory kingpin starts restraining capital expenditures and returns cash to shareholders, peers like Micron, SK Hynix, and even SanDisk can finally shed the shackles of vicious price wars, substantially raising the profit ceiling and stability of the entire memory chip cycle.
The second dimension is smashing the Korea Discount, triggering a massive migration of global long-term capital.
For a long time, Korean chaebols have suffered from a severe Korea Discount due to family control, stingy dividends, and opaque governance, with price-to-book ratios consistently below 1. Samsung’s response to the Korean government’s corporate value enhancement plan by deploying liquidity equivalent to nearly 20% of its market cap for buybacks and cancellations will directly boost its return on net assets.
For Wall Street’s long-term pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, which have been squeezed by high valuations in US stocks in recent years, a semiconductor giant with historically low P/E ratios and a cash cushion worth hundreds of trillions will create a huge liquidity siphon effect, driving foreign capital back into Asia’s core assets.
The third dimension is conveying a consensus on asset scarcity to the Bitcoin world.
As global tech giants at the top of market cap rankings embark on massive share cancellations and contraction modes, the capital market is forming a very clear new paradigm: in an era of fiat currency flooding and debt expansion, only scarce assets that can continuously generate real positive cash flow and have hardcore buyback and cancellation mechanisms can truly weather cycles. This forms a fascinating cross-sector resonance in asset pricing with Bitcoin’s halving mechanism that compresses secondary supply.
However, amid optimism, the market also poses Samsung its toughest ultimate test:
While deploying hundreds of billions of USD in cash for shareholder returns, can Samsung deliver qualified results in the second half of this year on the technical front of Nvidia’s HBM3e and next-generation HBM4 certifications? If the technical barriers are successfully overcome, this 100 trillion KRW capital restructuring will become Samsung’s strongest springboard to leap across cycles.
After Samsung announced the 100 trillion KRW shareholder return, do you think this will completely end the vicious cycle in memory chips? Among Micron, Hynix, and Samsung, who do you think will achieve the greatest excess returns in this AI wave?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't just look at HYPE surging 20%, calculate the compliance premium and liquidation accounts behind it.
At the White House press conference, a single remark from Trump pushed Hyperliquid ($HYPE) into the regulatory spotlight of the CFTC. $HYPE immediately surged above $72 intraday, and related US stock targets rose over 30%.
Most people only see the “positive surge” but completely miss the chip-killing scheme behind this political co-optation:
1. The “pricing power struggle” common among institutions
Perp DEX used to be considered an offshore gray product; compliant institutions wanting to deploy funds simply couldn’t pass risk control. The CFTC’s special push to enter the US market is essentially using compliance licenses to seize the ultimate pricing power of on-chain derivatives. Once this door fully opens, the trillion-dollar institutional funds settled in traditional markets will finally have a legal channel to enter.
2. The “secondary restructuring” of chip distribution
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, before the news broke, retail investors had placed high-leverage short positions around $60. This sharp rally directly wiped out the short liquidity completely. After the high-level turnover, $HYPE transformed from a small coin for retail speculation into a branded asset with a “political premium.”
3. The “positive realization trap” traders need to guard against
Political winds are easy to blow, but the CFTC’s specific compliance rules, KYC restrictions, and underlying liquidation access will take at least several months of tug-of-war. When chips rise near previous highs, blindly chasing the rally to bet on a one-sided main uptrend is very likely to encounter a false breakout where market makers use the positive news to unload.Why the global online payment giant Stripe acquired OpenRouter
Stripe announced an agreement to acquire the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter, with the deal price reportedly slightly above $8 billion. OpenRouter enables developers to access over 500 large models from more than 80 companies (including OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and domestic ones like DeepSeek, Kimi, Qianwen) through a unified API. It currently processes over 10 trillion tokens daily, serving more than 10 million developers and enterprises, with revenue coming from about a 5% commission on usage fees.
The acquisition background is the high cost of AI computing power for enterprises, which urgently need cheaper and more flexible model solutions. Tokens have become the "central currency" in the AI era. Stripe had previously launched a token billing product, and this acquisition further positions it in the AI consumption infrastructure, helping customers intelligently route requests and optimize token spending, while expanding its presence in the AI economy.
Three months ago, OpenRouter was valued at only $1.3 billion. This premium is significant, with a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 50 times, but the platform's role as a transit hub and the rapidly growing token throughput give it strategic positioning value for Stripe. Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The reason is not cryptocurrency.
Listen, I'll write it in order:
1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt.
3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year rate has reached a 19-year high. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks.
4. The repurchase action lowers rates, and funds flow back into risk assets. This opens the road to Bitcoin.
5. The market has been heavily shorted. Everyone expects a decline, everyone is shorting.
6. In just 4 hours, $1.4 billion of short positions were liquidated. These people bought not because they love Bitcoin, but because they had to buy to stop losses.
7. The price broke through the 200-day moving average, at $69,031. It had been below this line for months. Technical buy orders were also triggered.
8. On the same day, the SEC announced regulatory drafts. It clarified the capital raising framework, paving the way for mature networks to exit the securities category.
9. The White House will hold a cryptocurrency meeting. Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z will participate. The market has already priced in this positive news.
10. Funds flowed back into ETFs. On August 17, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, net inflows were $297.5 million.
Now to the point.
Remember this: Bitcoin no longer acts alone.
It rises when funds are abundant and falls when funds decrease. You can't understand this just by looking at charts because the reason isn't in the charts.
Honestly, this is not a trend reversal.
Most of the rise comes from forced buying. Liquidated shorts only buy once; they won't repeat the next day.
Strategy surged 13% today, Coinbase rose 11%. Both have fallen more than 35% since the beginning of the year.
A one-day rebound cannot erase a year's losses.
What you should do:
Be cautious.
Buying on the second day of the squeeze likely means catching those forced buyers exiting.
Open your calendar. The Fed meeting minutes and Treasury statements are now more important than Bitcoin charts. Mark the dates.
Note 69,000 points. If it closes and holds above this, the story changes. If it doesn't hold, today is just a jump.
I've been in this market for 12 years. If you don't know why it rises, you don't know why it falls. In both cases, you're always the last to know.
Save this. Next time there's a big fluctuation, check these ten points in the same order.
(Content above reposted from a certain X blogger) $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC Bitcoin (BTC) surged strongly today, breaking through the $72,000 mark (24-hour increase over 11%), driven by multiple factors including macro liquidity easing signals, short squeeze, and key technical breakthroughs:
1. Direct stimulation from macro liquidity
The U.S. Treasury has increased bond repurchase efforts: The U.S. Treasury recently announced a significant expansion of its Treasury bond repurchase program (planned to continue from early September through November). This move sent a strong signal of easing and liquidity replenishment to the financial markets, directly lowering U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar index.
Capital flows into inflation-resistant/high-risk assets: As market expectations for future liquidity improvement surged, funds quickly flowed into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, using them as hedges/premium tools against potential inflation and currency depreciation.
2. Technical breakthroughs and short squeeze
Key moving averages and resistance patterns broken: BTC recently successfully broke through the descending trendline and the 200-day moving average, confirming a phase bottom pattern (such as the neckline breakout of a head and shoulders bottom).
Accelerated short liquidations pushing prices up: Many traders had established short positions in the $65,000–$68,000 range. When the price forcibly broke through this key psychological level, a large number of short stop-loss buy orders were triggered instantly, creating a classic "short squeeze" scenario with accelerated upward momentum.
3. Resonance between spot and derivatives market sentiment
ETF and institutional funds follow suit: After the macro positive news, spot ETFs and OTC funds showed net inflows, replenishing buying depth.
Rotation among major tokens: BTC's breakout led to synchronous rises in major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with overall market risk appetite clearly rebounding. $BTC surged ~7% to nearly $69,750, driven mainly by a massive short squeeze after crowded bearish positioning collided with Treasury’s increased long-term bond buybacks, which pushed the 30-year yield lower. However, ETF outflows and miner selling suggest the move was more positioning-driven than proof of strong, lasting demand.
The bigger long-term development was the SEC’s proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets” framework, which could establish clearer rules for crypto offerings if finalized BTC directly broke through 72,000! This short squeeze is brutal, let's break it down simply
Brothers, I just checked the market, BTC directly surged above 72,000. Intraday gain over 5%, rallying from around 64,000 to 72,000, a nearly 8,000-dollar rise from the low. I'm really impressed by this move.
A couple of days ago it was stuck around 64,000, then last night a big bullish candle pushed it to 69,000, and today it kept going straight through 72,000. The market switched from "extreme suppression" to "euphoric sentiment" in just a day and a half.
First, why the rise: three major positive factors stacked together
The core catalyst was the US Treasury announcement—on August 19, it declared that starting September 9, the single repurchase size for 10-30 year Treasury bonds will increase from 2 billion to at least 4 billion. Once the news came out, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped, the dollar weakened, and gold surged over 3%. The market immediately began to reprice liquidity expectations.
Then the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework, establishing a safe harbor mechanism, with a $5 million cap on fundraising during the project launch phase, and up to $75 million annually during the regular phase. After compliance, securities classification can be lifted. The White House also held a crypto industry summit, and Trump came out again calling to push the CLARITY Act. Continuous regulatory positives gave incremental funds confidence.
Plus, Trump met with senior executives from multiple crypto companies at the White House. Multiple positives combined to ignite the market.
But what really made the gains so exaggerated was the shorts getting crushed
The strongest driver of this rally wasn’t active buying, but passive buying—shorts being forced to cover.
BTC was stuck around 64,000 for a long time, and the derivatives market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price broke through a key liquidation cluster, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, short covering created a chain reaction of buy orders, pushing the price even higher. Over $1.3-1.4 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%. Reports say short liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion.
Simply put: shorts were too crowded, when the price rose, they were forced to buy back to close positions, which pushed the price higher, causing more shorts to liquidate—a classic short squeeze positive feedback loop.
However, there are a few signals to watch
First, Coinbase premium index is still negative, indicating demand in the US spot market hasn’t truly returned; this rally is mainly leverage-driven, not supported by spot buying.
Second, Glassnode issued a warning that on-chain data is still in a "capitulation phase," and before the realized profit-loss ratio breaks above 2, any rebound is more likely to be local.
Third, technically the market is seriously overbought, with 1-hour and 4-hour RSI both above 85. After a sharp rise, a pullback to digest profits is usually needed.
Here’s my current view
72,000-75,000 is the next major technical resistance zone. Whether BTC can hold above 72,000 is critical—if it holds, the next targets could be 75,000 or even 78,000; if it fails and falls below 68,000, this rally is just a quick short squeeze correction, not a trend reversal.
My strategy now is simple: don’t chase the first big bullish candle. Wait for a pullback confirmation; if it stabilizes with lower volume around 68,000-69,000, then consider entering. If it breaks and holds 72,000 with volume, then look for opportunities to follow up. Stop loss must be set properly; if key support breaks, exit promptly.
Brothers, have you gotten on board this wave? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $SNDK $ETH $SPCX
Let's talk about today's market analysis
This morning, the US stock storage sector rose, driven by the rise in the Korean stock market. However, a risk needs to be pointed out here: the US stock market has recently been moving independently, with the leading role played by the Korean stock market as a pioneer. Usually, most of the gains during the day are erased after the market opens, so avoid chasing the rally.
There is a large capital inflow into the crypto market, with ETH trading volume soaring to hundreds of billions of dollars, and the volume ratio increasing by 4 times. This indicates that the volatility risk funds attracted away by US stock contracts recently are starting to flow back. This is a signal worth noting, as capital attention is increasing. I judge that the crypto market should have a good trend ahead, and it is recommended to follow the trend.
Regarding US stocks, you can also pay attention to targets outside of hardware storage, such as SPCX, GOOGL, Apple, Meta, etc. When storage volatility decreases or declines, sector rotation usually occurs, pulling up these old tech stocks. You can buy on dips and cash out on highs. This round's script with $SKHYNIX $SNDK is somewhat like a wealthy landlord returning money to the people with a 70/30 split. I wonder if anyone has noticed that the buyback is of treasury shares, cashing out company cash flow reasonably at a high level. But if the cash-out at this position is completed, and retail investors panic sell, they then use the cashed-out money to buy back at a low price, isn't it still back in their own hands, continuing to pay dividends? The capital market doesn't believe in tears; from a business mindset, that's how it is—left hand to right hand, buying time, letting the goods keep flowing, and not letting the market collapse quickly. Not sure if this is correct. Anyway, if something unexpected happens, have a plan first. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 The second largest short squeeze day in crypto history has arrived again.
According to Coinglass data, on August 19th, the total short liquidations across the network were about $1.74 billion, making it the second largest single-day short liquidation volume in history, only behind the $2.46 billion short liquidation on October 10, 2025. At that time, long liquidations reached as high as $16.7 billion (total liquidation record was $19.16 billion, the largest liquidation day in crypto history, showing how much impact the 10/10/last year or 10/11/domestic event had on the crypto space, directly cutting off the bull market progress).
On August 19th, the total 24-hour liquidations were about $1.9 billion, with shorts absolutely dominating (about $1.74 billion, over 90%), and longs only about $180 million. Among these, BTC contributed the majority (about $1.1 billion+ in shorts), and ETH about $460–510 million. The single-hour peak saw short liquidations of $1.1–1.23 billion.
The short squeeze was driven by a combination of crowded high-leverage short positions + price breakout + forced liquidation feedback loop.
Positions were crowded on the short side, with a significant number of traders (especially high-leverage players) continuously adding shorts. For example, a particularly conspicuous whale short appeared on Hyperliquid:
One address had an 1800 BTC short position (about $117 million, 40x leverage) fully liquidated; two other addresses combined triggered about 1177 BTC (about $77 million) in liquidations.
These high-leverage short liquidations were highly concentrated around similar price levels. This sudden price surge caused a chain reaction:
BTC rapidly surged and once touched near the $70,000 high, with a significant 24-hour gain.
The sudden price spike caused high-leverage short margin to be insufficient, forcing exchanges to buy to close positions, further pushing prices up and liquidating more shorts.
This positive feedback loop is especially violent in the perpetual futures market.
Especially with very high leverage, such as tens of times leverage, and order book liquidity thinning at key price levels. On-chain perpetual futures platforms can see whale positions, making them easy targets.Today's big rally in the market is really not just a single positive factor hitting the jackpot; it's several major events coinciding and resonating together.
First, the U.S. Treasury softened its stance, expanding long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term bond yields to drop sharply. Market liquidity instantly became much looser, and funds unwilling to settle for low returns started flowing into high-volatility tracks like BTC and ETH. This is the core reason behind this surge.
Second, the regulatory tone has completely softened. The SEC is now gradually clarifying the rules, providing the market with a clear compliance path instead of mindless crackdowns. The previously cautious institutional sentiment has suddenly loosened up.
Also, the White House directly met with leading figures in the crypto industry this time, discussing tokenization and regulatory frameworks. Simply put, the government is starting to take this sector seriously, giving the market strong confidence support.
Add to that the return of ETF funds and a large number of shorts being liquidated and closed out, multiple positive factors stacked together, causing the market to surge explosively.
But honestly, one bullish candle can't change beliefs.
This rally is currently driven by liquidity recovery, policy expectations, and short squeeze.
Whether it can develop into a true long-term trend depends on one core factor: whether there is sustained real money entering the spot market to take over positions.
If incremental funds continue to come in, this wave is the starting point of a reversal;
If no funds take over, it's likely just a short-term rebound with repeated shakeouts afterward.
Bull or bear markets are never judged by a single candlestick, but by whether the funds have returned and can be stabilized $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Coinbase 将 Hyperliquid 永续合约交易整合进其 Base App，符合条件的用户现可访问超过 290 个永续市场，涵盖 BTC、ETH、股票及大宗商品相关标的，最高支持 50 倍杠杆，交易执行由 Hyperliquid 负责。 Coinbase 表示，永续合约目前约占加密货币总交易量的 75%，也是 Base App 用户呼声最高的功能之一。此次上线标志着 Base App 正从早期聚焦社交与创作者功能，加速转向交易、支付及 AI 代理能力等更广泛的应用场景。 需要明确的是，该产品不会向美国、英国、加拿大及其他限制杠杆加密衍生品的司法管辖区用户开放。这意味着部分主要市场的用户暂时无法通过 Base App 使用该功能，合规边界依然是产品扩张的核心约束。 从市场影响来看，Coinbase 选择整合外部流动性而非自建撮合引擎，反映出头部交易平台在衍生品赛道上更倾向于快速接入成熟流动性网络，以抢占市场份额。Hyperliquid 作为新兴的链上永续合约平台，借助 Coinbase 的分发渠道，有望进一步扩大其在机构与零售用户中的渗透率。 不过，高杠杆永续合约本身伴随较高的BTC 积攒两个多月的盘整区能量在昨晚突破6.56后爆发出来了~ e子更是20%+的涨幅 图1 周线级别 支撑6.56 阻力8.25，真正的牛回，我个人观点是得周线收回8.25以上. 图2 日线级别 支撑6.65 阻力7.38. 目前这种势能的拉升. 并没有出现任何停止or颓势信号~ 错过这波的小伙伴不要fomo或者因为涨得多而去做空. 在没有出现图3箭头所指的盘整区且跌破之前，建议把做空键抠掉！ 行情强势跑出来. 当下下方能看的支撑（回踩）除了6.65这个日线级别的. 就只能结合hr级别的k线去找了. 但实话目前并没有出现明显的共振位，这里需要更多的k线结构~ 还在场或者右侧进场的多军上方的目标位是日线级别的7.38-7.45一带. 这里既是周线级别的斐波0.618位置，也是日线级别的阻力位. (空单想试错得等到这里的走势） 当下这种行情. 大实话是空仓的 在btc并没有太多的介入机会. 但可以去看看一些山寨的. 强势的结构好的龙一. 例如Hype昨晚已经和疯e争锋拉了20%+了. 那么各板块还没启动. 或者说大级别刚突破了结构的山寨呢？ 行情天天有. 虽然这种级别的拉升#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
FOMC minutes released with a 9:3 vote, 3 officials advocating for a direct rate hike, internal divisions remain high, let's discuss the real impact on $BTC and $ETH
📌 Market Analysis
Although the rate was kept unchanged this time, 3 members voted against, demanding a rate hike, signaling a covert hawkish stance. The core logic: inflation stickiness hasn't disappeared, high rates will be maintained longer, future data still keeps the option of rate hikes open, not a complete shift to easing. BTC and ETH are risk assets sensitive to USD liquidity:
1) Short term: The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, likely to see a "bad news is good news" pulse rebound, but the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. If US Treasury yields and the dollar index strengthen again, it will directly suppress the upside for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2) Medium term: The committee's division means the market is highly tied to US CPI and employment data. If data surprises again, rate hike expectations will heat up, putting downward pressure on BTC and ETH; only a sustained decline in inflation will open the door to a true bull market.
3) Divergence in strength: BTC spot ETF institutional sentiment will be affected by macro disturbances; ETH also faces additional volatility from on-chain staking and DeFi funds, resulting in greater fluctuations than BTC, with higher elasticity on the upside and deeper pullbacks on negative news.
We are currently in a macro divergence window, with news repeatedly stirring the market, so avoid chasing highs. Bitcoin suddenly surged, and Trump gave it a push from behind
This time BTC suddenly shot up from over 60,000 all the way back to 70,000 dollars, and Trump indeed added fuel to the fire.
On August 19, Trump directly met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act. The US's attitude toward continuing to embrace cryptocurrency has become very clear.
However, the real ignition this time was the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks. After Treasury yields dropped, market liquidity expectations changed instantly.
Plus, after BTC broke through, shorts were continuously liquidated, ETF funds flowed back in, and several positive factors appeared simultaneously, directly pushing BTC back to 70,000 dollars.
So this surge is not simply Trump calling for a rise; it’s a resonance of policy, liquidity, capital, and short squeeze all together.
If Trump continues to push crypto regulatory bills later and 70,000 dollars can hold steady, I think this round of the market can indeed start to be viewed with a longer-term perspective.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Dogecoin
Reference benchmark: 2026-08-20 Market reference price approximately $0.075
✅ 【Support Levels | Downtrend Holding Zones】 (from near to far)
1. Weak support (short-term first defense): $0.070
Short-term consolidation center; breaking below here signals short-term weakness and likely quick retest of the next level
2. Strong support (key daily buy zone): $0.065–0.067
Recently stabilized dense trading zone, the dividing line between bulls and bears in this round of the market
🟡 【Resistance Levels | Uptrend Pressure Zones】 (from near to far)
1. First resistance (immediate near-term pressure): $0.080
First short-term hurdle; volume must increase and hold above to open upward space
2. Mid-term core resistance: $0.10
Major psychological barrier and historically heavy trading zone, an important test for bulls
3. Mid-level target (strong bull market + positive catalysts): $0.11–0.12
Price breakout alone is useless; volume must be considered: volume significantly increases when hitting resistance for breakout to be valid; low volume rallies tend to fall back.
❗ Most important risk: do not over-leverage!!!! In the past couple of days, Bitcoin has surged violently. Many people think it's just news factors, but after reviewing the news, there aren't any major positive signs. The essence is a chain of short squeezes in the futures market, and the liquidation map clearly shows it. Liquidation map data: The orange bar represents the liquidation position of short positions. When the price rises, it triggers a short position liquidation at the corresponding price level. From 69,000 points upward, each layer is filled with a large amount of high-leverage short positions. The leverage ratio of 50-100x is very high. Every time the price breaks above one level, short positions trigger liquidation, and market buy orders continue to push the market higher. A strong short squeeze has formed, which is the main driving force behind this rally. Looking at the multi-time market together: at the 15-minute level, RSI has entered the high overbought range, MACD has surged violently, and short-term bullish momentum is fully unleashed. But overbought doesn't mean an immediate reversal. In a short squeeze market, overbought can be maintained, and liquidity is still uneaten upward. The 1-hour and 4-hour structures have completely turned upward. After the current low of 62,500 started, the lows kept rising, and the trend has shifted to bullish dominance. The daily chart has regained its position above the key moving average, with medium-term resistance near the previous highs above. Looking at liquidity positions: Above, short positions to be taken: 72,200-73,000, where a thick short liquidation pool is piled up. If the bulls continue, this area will be further eroded and push higher; Larger levels of short position liquidity are concentrated around 74,500, which is the ultimate heavy resistance zone for this squeeze. Below is the defensive level of long liquidation: the first key support is 69,100-69,200. If the price falls effectively,This looks more like a broad repricing than a BTC-only breakout. With BTC above $71,900 and ETH leading the 24-hour move, capital is moving further out on the risk curve rather than staying concentrated in the most liquid asset.
My stance is constructive, but the speed matters. Double-digit gains across BTC, ETH and SOL compress the margin for error, so the next useful signal is whether strength holds after the initial impulse, not whether momentum can extend for another session.
Not advice, just analysis.$HYPE surged 20% in one day, seriously overbought, bearish down to 62, add short positions at 75. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
What does this mean for the crypto space? Three levels.
Narrative level: The U.S. government has shifted from "regulatory crackdown" to "reserve buyer." This shift is more important than any single policy.
Policy level: The CLARITY Act + strategic reserves + Hyperliquid compliance + new financing regulations—a combined set of measures launched simultaneously, systematically establishing a regulatory framework.
Capital level: Shorts are being crushed; $1.42 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $1.33 billion from short positions. This big bullish candle is the result of short covering plus positive policy resonance.
Here’s my take.
Bitcoin jumped directly from 64,000 to 72,000, and sentiment is indeed high. But don’t get carried away by one bullish candle—Trump said "discussed," not "executed." The scale, timeline, and funding source of the U.S. government buying crypto have not materialized. This big bullish candle reflects trading expectations, not trading reality.
But the direction of expectations is clear—the U.S. government is shifting from "crypto enemy" to "crypto friend." As long as this narrative is not disproven, the market’s pricing logic will continue in this direction. Next, we’ll see if capital can keep up and whether the CLARITY Act will really pass on September 15.
Be patient; the opportunity for us to short is not far off yet
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Today, the $OKB that should have risen the most barely moved, while BTC, which shouldn't have risen, went up 11%.
This kind of "beta failure" is especially common with platform tokens.
OKX revenue model: contract fees + spot rebates + RWA channel + on-chain staking. In the past 30 days, OKX revenue has risen as much as BTC has, but the platform token transmission has a 3-6 month lag.
Last week, I had dinner with someone inside OKX, and he said, "Q3 business is good, but OKB burn data will only be released in Q4." The meaning is clear: fundamentals are improving, but the token price won't reflect it immediately.
Institutional mindset: wait for the burn data release before pricing. Retail mindset: BTC rose today but OKB didn't, so quickly switch.
Both logics are correct, just different timelines.
Medium-term bullish, short-term no rush. Wait for burn data or exchange announcements as catalysts.
Buy small positions at 100-103, defend at $95. Catalysts are the Q3 burn announcement at the end of September or the X Layer mainnet upgrade. Be patient.
Platform tokens don't follow beta, they follow fundamentals—but fundamentals have a lag.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC price surged to 72000, merely extending the rebound driven by existing funds. Two core doubts in the article remain unresolved:
1. Incremental funds issue
Short-term rallies can be achieved through on-exchange fund rotation and short-term ETF buying. Only with a steady long-term increase in trading volume and a continuous influx of new off-exchange funds can the bull market foundation be solidified; relying solely on existing funds for relay limits the sustainability of the rise.
2. Market differentiation pattern remains unchanged
BTC alone is rising sharply, while most altcoins have not strengthened in sync, failing to form a broad-based rally. In a structural market, the stronger Bitcoin’s one-sided rise, the more long contract positions accumulate. The higher the price, the greater the probability of sudden sharp drops and long-short liquidations.
Two confirmation signals need continued observation:
① Continuous net inflow of ETF funds for multiple days
② Broad market recovery across many coins
As long as these two points do not occur simultaneously, this rally is still defined as a rebound, and significant profit-taking at high levels can happen at any time. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
9 to 3, Fed officials clearly argued in the minutes, with no consensus reached on whether to raise rates
Goldman Sachs also added that the possibility of a rate hike in September is very low, effectively adding another factor to this risk-on wave
Is this good for crypto? I actually think it's a double-edged sword—the dollar being too weak does boost liquidity, but as long as officials keep insisting on rate hikes verbally, the stock market and BTC could shake at any moment
So my judgment is, Bitcoin just broke 69,000, the trend is upward, but before this macro noise settles, don't go all in at once; keep some ammo to add on once the direction is clearer
$BTC $BTC This is simply a short squeeze rally
The core driving force behind the recent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum $ETH is an epic short squeeze
Be cautious when shorting!
About $2.98 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with short liquidations around $2.74 billion, and Bitcoin shorts about $1.42 billion.
· Over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within just one hour, the largest scale since 2021.
· Three Hyperliquid accounts suffered combined losses of $194 million.
⚠️ Key warning: Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not yet returned. This rally is mainly driven by leverage rather than spot buying support. Glassnode warns that on-chain data is still in the "surrender phase," and until the realized profit-loss ratio surpasses 2, any rebound should be considered a local bounce rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
Macro policy and regulatory tailwinds (core catalysts)
Trump administration's combo moves:
· Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Payward, Blockchain.com, etc., at the White House, urging Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" (Clarity Act). The Senate Banking Committee chair indicated the bill might advance to procedural voting by September 15.
· Trump revealed plans brewing for a large-scale Bitcoin reserve program.
· The SEC proposed a new "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework allowing qualified projects to raise up to $75 million every 12 months, establishing a safe harbor mechanism for tokens to exit "investment contract" classification.
Treasury liquidity easing:
· The US Treasury announced doubling the liquidity support repo scale for 10-30 year Treasuries, raising the per-operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
· The 30-year Treasury yield retreated from about 5.22%, and the dollar weakened, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
It's easy to get trapped chasing a parabolic short squeeze rally; wait for the market to stabilize before entering.
Resistance above: watch the 74,000-75,000 range
Support below:
Support near 68,500, a key level confirming breakout validity
Strong support zone around 66,800-67,200
The above are personal views for reference only
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #Bitcoin A routine rebound from the bottom greatly increases the probability of successful bottoming within the range. As for the bull rebound? Not so fast! The long-dormant crypto market has seen an accelerated rise in the Asia-Europe session, seen by many as a bull rebound. Originally, I didn't want to pour cold water on everyone, but looking at the daily Fibonacci chart, you'll find that it has only just broken out of the bottom range and hasn't even completed an initial rebound yet. In fact, after the February 6 low, BTC price completed a routine rebound within 41 hours, and after a subsequent breakout rebound, a new low of 58,000 was still reached. Of course, this is not to be bullish or to intimidate everyone. From my perspective, a conventional rebound or a strong breakout above 74,200 is good for bottoming out the range. Once the rebound is completed and the rebound doesn't break new lows, the 58,000 range is basically complete. However, to insist that a new trend has started now is still a bit far-fetched. Right now, it's obvious that the sentiment in the Asia-Europe market toward macro policy + the White House crypto meeting is driving the market. The rise is accompanied by shrinking volume. Next, we need to watch for selling pressure concentrated at 74,200, which could easily lead to short-term downside risks. #BTC突破69000美元 even end the rebound trend directly, how far can this rally go? After all, the current macro positive news is time-sensitive. The White House crypto meeting only changed policy expectations without much actual policy support, which is also time-sensitive. So as time approaches next week, this positive trend is likely to become a thing of the past. Next, we can watch #BTC price performanceBTC and ETH Surge: Bull Market or Short Squeeze?
$BTC reached $69.5K, $ETH surged to $2,259, but it is still too early to declare a new bull market cycle. This move was partly driven by Treasury repo, yield declines, and over $1 billion in short liquidations. However, this is not quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve remains cautious, and real yields stay high. $BTC needs to maintain sustained strength above $69K with genuine spot demand—not just leverage-driven. The rebound momentum is strong, but the next move still needs to be confirmed. $BTC $ETH $OKB Many people have asked if I can analyze ETH again, so here is another analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
(Actually, I’m more optimistic about $BTC now. ETH has rallied so much, but BTC clearly hasn’t kept up. I guess it will start to rise soon. Are there any brave ones charging ahead?)
1. The trigger is the U.S. Treasury
The scale of long-term bond repurchases has directly doubled to at least $4 billion each time, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately dropped by 10 basis points. The hand choking the crypto market has loosened, and the bulls who were suppressed all summer have instantly bounced back. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $71.47 million on the same day, with institutional funds turning from outflows to inflows — this signal is even more valuable than the price increase itself.
2. This rally is supported by "fuel"
In 24 hours, 175,000 people across the network were liquidated, with short liquidations exceeding $1.7 billion, the second largest short squeeze in history. The largest single on-chain liquidation was $108 million, from a main address called pension — a heavily short position under the name of a pension fund, showing serious confidence. After shorts were forcibly liquidated, they were forced to buy back, which in turn pushed the price up, causing more liquidations and further price increases.
3. My judgment
RSI has reached 83, overheated and overbought, so chasing higher at this point is not cost-effective. The key is the 2200-2300 range: if it holds, 2400-2500 is within reach; if it breaks below 2100, this rally will be just a spring dream. My plan is to wait for a pullback to 2200-2250 to stabilize before continuing to enter in batches. Good meals aren’t afraid of being late, and good men aren’t afraid of waiting. Those already on board can hold. BTC can be bought, just be bold and go for it. My personal feeling: the rise will start this afternoon or tonight.FOMC minutes 9 to 3, yet BTC surged past 70,000: Who does the market really trust?
This minutes report should have cooled down risk assets: 9 votes supported keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes sided with a rate hike, showing more disagreement than the market expected. But the market completely ignored the script, with BTC pushing from around 64,000 all the way to 71,369 USD, up 4.11% in 24 hours; ETH was even more dramatic, surging to 2,275 USD, a gain of over 9%.
Watching this rally, my first reaction wasn’t "the Fed turned dovish," but that the market is trading something else: the Treasury raised the single-repurchase limit on 10–30 year U.S. Treasuries from 2 billion USD to at least 4 billion USD, causing long-term yields to fall, and liquidity expectations temporarily outweighed rate hike disagreements. But note, repos are not QE.
Add in concentrated short covering, and prices naturally move faster than the news.
So is this rally the start of a bull market, or a short squeeze amid policy conflicts? For now, I lean toward the latter. BTC’s real proof of strength isn’t just hitting 70,000, but holding 70,000 on a pullback; ETH’s key level is 2,250—holding that is needed to have confidence to push to 2,400.
Brothers, do you trust the Fed’s 9 to 3 vote, or the price that’s already surged past 70,000?
$BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Bitcoin surged past 70,000 overnight, and everyone is shouting "bull is coming." Has the bull really arrived?
From the data, it certainly seems so. Bitcoin jumped over 8% in a single day, reaching 70,000 at one point; Ethereum was even more dramatic, rising nearly 20% intraday, shooting from 1900 straight to 2300. Short positions across the entire network were liquidated in 24 hours, with over 2.7 billion in liquidations.
The last time Bitcoin rose more than 7% in a day was in April this year. This wave has directly recovered all the losses from the past two months, with prices returning to early June levels. The total market cap increased by 7.2% in one day, from 2.26 trillion to 2.45 trillion. Secondary altcoins saw a rare almost all-green day.
Before this wave, CZ posted a tweet implying he believes the bottom is already in; Wang Chun even boldly declared the slogan "the bear market is over."
But in my view, this still looks more like a rebound rather than a reversal.
The three positive factors driving this market rise are all somewhat exaggerated. The market rally is driven by speculation on expectations, not by what these positives can truly deliver.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 August 20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
The core driving force behind Bitcoin's current rally has shifted to expectations of regulatory improvements, with macro factors taking a backseat, creating a divergence pattern of "hawkish news, rising coin prices." BTC surged violently from 64k to around 70k, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in a single day, representing a large-scale short squeeze. Shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices up, dominated by non-spot funds, raising doubts about sustainability.
Ethereum experienced an epic short squeeze with an 18% single-day surge. The core driving forces are the US Treasury's expansion of Treasury repurchase operations, the SEC's new crypto asset regulations, and the White House crypto summit, all resonating positively. The short-term cost-performance ratio for chasing highs is extremely low.
Operation advice:
Short $BTC $ETH $SOL on rebounds to 71,000-71,500